Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 186 - 12/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 186 - 12/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 186 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week rolls on and we
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have a lot of action to talk about here on a big Thirsty
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Thursday because across the market we have Thursday Night
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Football between the Denver Broncos and the LA Chargers.
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Interesting line movement. Also interesting betting
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percentages for this one. But I do have a play, 2 plays
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for this game, including a side and a player prop.
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And then college football bowl game for tonight, we have
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Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State.
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Got a play on the side there as well.
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Going to try to take advantage once again like we did last
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night in terms of one team locked and loaded in the other
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with issues, opt outs and coaching changes.
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Then going to look at a couple plays here in college hoops.
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Couple low bed, obscure line moves in one play in the NBA.
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A very, very, very high total that I'm hoping will go under
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here. So a six pack overall for
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today's sweats. Going to see if we can scratch
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and claw and find a way to get four or more of them.
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Now, looking back toward last night, we had another winning
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day. Three and 1 + 1.14 units now
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seven and two over our last nine.
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And you know what? You know, I'm thinking, I'm
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thinking where Andy Dufrane, where we were in Shawshank and
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had no hope whatsoever, just suffering losses, bad beats left
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and right after a very bad week. And now we've chiseled our, our
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way through the concrete door. We've, we're kind of, you know,
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going through the pipes where if you haven't seen Shawshank and
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you have to on my favorite movies, we got, we got to hold
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our nose and go through all of the, you know, the sewage pipes.
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And we're very close to ending our our our voyage through the
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sewer pipes and falling in that, falling outside and getting our
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freedom here because we had a big hole that unfortunately we
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dug for ourselves over the last couple weeks or over the last
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week I should say. But we're getting closer to our
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freedom here as we're clawing back some of our units lost.
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So 3 in 1 + 1.14 units had a great hit with UNLV.
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Remember the play there was an information based bet where Cal
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was missing a ton of guys opt out to UNLV was locked and
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loaded ready to go. UNLV ends up getting it done as
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a very sharp dog to fave line move.
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And then college hoops. 2IN1 we got UC Riverside.
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That one was a very nice surprise because they were down
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by 12 points at the half storm back were able to win that game.
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We also got Bradley, which was nice.
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Had to had to eat that one out. And of course when we talked
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about money lining short favorites, if you look back
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toward yesterday guys, that game with with Bradley was important
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because they closed around -2 they won by two.
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So obviously that was that was huge of us to to get that win
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instead of a push. And then same thing with UC
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Riverside, they closed around -3 and one by three.
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So would have been a push. Instead we made it a win.
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So always money line, short favorites.
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That's really coming home to roost quite a bit here recently.
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Only loser was Murray State. Unfortunately had a good sharp
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move there, but Murray State could not get it done.
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The end up losing to Indiana State.
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But anyway, guys, after a tough stretch now two straight winning
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days, let's continue to scratch and claw and grind and hopefully
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extend this winning streak to a third day.
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So I want to start off with the NFL big Thursday Night Football
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showdown here, Denver Broncos, LA Chargers and this one I'm
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going to tell you off the right off the bat guys, it's a
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difficult handicap, but I think there is an angle here that does
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kind of match our philosophy. So let's set the stage.
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I'll give you the play and then we'll we'll talk about a player
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prop with a good rhythm edge. So going into this one big
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showdown AFC West, the Broncos come in nine and five.
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They've won four straight. Just took down the Colts 31 to
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13, covering as a four and a half point home favorite.
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I still can't get over me taking the points of the Colts and
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Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball at the one inch yard line.
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That was awesome. Anyway, Chargers eight and six.
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They've dropped. However, three of their last
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four and they just got crushed by the bucks 40 to 17, did not
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cover and lost outright as a three-point home favorite.
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So what do we see across the market here?
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Well, this game open with LA listed as a three-point home
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favorite. And it was pretty obvious that
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early smart money grabbed the points with Denver.
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So a lot of plus threes were hit with Denver and basically got
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this line down to 2 1/2. Now what's important is we are
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seeing buyback here on the Chargers at this point.
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So a lot of these -2 1/2's are pretty much every -2 1/2 on the
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Chargers is really juiced up -115 -, 120.
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So that tells me that are basically the question here of
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will we get back up to three between now and kickoff?
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That's kind of the direction this line is maybe trending.
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And again, juice, you always people just think of it as, oh,
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the juice, you know, it's, it's the, the vague, you know what,
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we got to pay the books for them to accept our bets, the tax, the
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Commission, which is true. But also think about when the
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juice is more expensive on one side versus the other.
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Like right now it's chargers -115 versus Denver -1 O 5:00.
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You got to think #1 why are they making you pay a higher price?
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And #2 what does that mean in terms of the next line move?
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So basically looks like liability and movement is coming
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back toward the Chargers. Now, I always love to look at
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DraftKings and I work at V Sin as a sports betting analyst.
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I have a daily sharp report that I write.
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You can always check it out for my Twitter at Josh under score
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Insights. But at V Sin, we just added the
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circle bet splits. So I've really been interested
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in kind of comparing and contrasting and I've talked
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about it on the pod before, but basically a square book, public
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book like DraftKings, what are those percentages look like
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versus what the sharp bets bet splits from Circa are looking
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like? And this is one where it's kind
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of interesting because at DraftKings, the public is on
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Denver. Currently, you're getting 54% of
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bets on Denver. Flip it the other way, Chargers
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are a little bit of a fade. The trendy dog play, they're
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only getting 46% of spread bets, but 59% of spread dollars.
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So I'm like, OK, that looks pretty good for the Chargers.
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I can bet against the public with Denver and kind of buy low
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on on LA. Then I look at Circa and it told
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me a completely different story. At Circa, the Broncos are only
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getting 34% of spread bets but 79% of spread dollars.
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So it looks like out in Vegas, you have basically the sharper
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betters here going with Denver in the points.
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So if you look at DraftKings, looks like the sharper money's
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on Chargers. You look at Circa, it looks like
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the sharper money is on Denver. And this is where it becomes a
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hard handicap, which is what what I was mentioning earlier.
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But here's the way I think through that.
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I'm thinking about what number, you know, these betters got the
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game at because it looks to me like you have a little bit of
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competing or dueling sharp action.
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I think it's important to remember that, you know, often
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times we'll talk about, oh, this is the sharp side or, you know,
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this is the square side or this is a pro versus Joe.
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And most of the time, you know, you will see that maybe one side
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is clearly sharp and the other is clearly public.
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But it's not that case always. Like sometimes there are going
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to be disagreements among sharps or wise guys or pro betters,
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whatever you want to call them. The guys and gals who bet big
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amounts, have the respect to the books, have a long track record
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of success. So the way I'm seeing this game
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is basically you have dueling sharp action where some sharps
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really like Denver at +3. Other sharps are really liking
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the opportunity to buy low on chargers -2 1/2.
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So again, not sharps always. You know, they're not a
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monolith. They don't.
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They won't always be on one side.
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There are syndicates which are basically groups of sharps who
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pool their money and get down bigot multiple books.
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That's how I think through that kind of fishy.
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Like DraftKings is saying one thing, but yet Circus saying the
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other. Now at this point there are a
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couple things going on #1 if you tell me you like Denver, I'm not
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going to argue with you that much because Denver is a
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situation here where they are a division divisional dog.
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Divisional dog built in familiarity levels, the playing
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field benefits, the team getting points.
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Divisional dogs this year are 37 and 27 ATS, 58 percent, 10% ROI.
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So you really see the importance of the divisional matchup
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because dogs overall this year are 48% ATS, but the divisional
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dogs are 58% against the spread. So basically divisional dogs
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have been way better than non divisional dogs.
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However, I think if you're playing Denver, to me, instead
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of taking the 2 1/2 and really having to win the game or lose
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by two or less, I think if you're playing Denver, I'd
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rather play them in a teaser. They're kind of in that perfect
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Wong teaser spot. Plus 2 1/2 up to plus 8 1/2.
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You go through the three and you go through the seven.
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So again, if you're playing Denver, I would I would much
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rather tease them up than just take the 2 1/2 because again,
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you're starting to see this buy back on the Chargers and maybe
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this thing gets back up to three.
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You could also, if you like Denver, just wait to see if you
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do get a three between now and kick off.
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Now on the other hand, the Chargers, first thing you notice
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about the Chargers is they are in a desperation buy low spot.
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So we always love buying low and selling high.
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That's really the epitome of value when it comes to betting
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on sports. So this is buy low, sell high
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really in favor of the Chargers because we have the Chargers who
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are a short home favorite on a losing streak and just got blown
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out. So let's buy low on the
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Chargers. Denver, on the other hand, is a
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sell high play because they're a bit of a trendy dog, at least at
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at DraftKings, and they've won what I say four games in a row.
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So buying low would mean playing the Chargers, selling high would
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mean fading Denver. Then we get into some of these
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system matches. Thursday Night Football, it's a
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short week. Historically, what does that
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mean? It means that it benefits the
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favorite in the home team. And if you look at these the
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spot situation, historically, Thursday Night Football home
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favorites, they're ten and two straight up this season, 83%.
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They're 22 and seven straight up, 76% since 2023.
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So over the last two years. And if you look at just
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primetime home favorites in general, they're 24 and seven
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straight up this year, 77% with a 14% ROI.
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So I think this is difficult handicap.
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Again, Denver would be a divisional dog.
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The line did move in their favor.
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The circa bet splits look pretty good.
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However, I don't really want to be playing the the popular or at
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least in the drafting standpoint, the popular bit of a
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trendy dog that's on a winning streak.
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Like it seems like Denver's the obvious play here.
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You know, charters have struggled.
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Denver's playing well. If you bet on sports long
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enough, especially the NFL, you want to learn to basically buy
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low on the team that isn't playing well versus the team
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that's hot. So again, if you tell me like
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Denver, I think you probably want to look at a teaser, and
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I'll give you the second leg of that teaser, a suggestion here
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in a second. But I keep looking at this
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buyback on the Chargers, all of these historical trends on home
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favorites, especially in prime time in a desperation spot where
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again, you know, you're, you're seeing this team that has lost a
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bunch in a row versus selling high in the team that's won a
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bunch in a row. I ended up saying, hey, I'm
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going to go Chargers here because it just seems fishy to
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me. And I like this buyback.
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Like here's another thing. Let's say instead of chargers -2
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1/2 -, 115, it was juiced up like it's going to fall to two.
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That would tell me you probably want to take Denver because
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there's continued support for Denver.
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The fact that this is creeping back up, that tells me a sign
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here that pros seem to be buying low on the Chargers on game day.
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Now, if you look at the Chargers.
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So here's the thing. I'm money lining the Chargers.
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I bet them at -140 and I have two system matches from Rhythm.
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One says they should be a six point favorite, which seems a
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little high. The other one says they should
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be -1.7. So even if you take the 1.7
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again, still pretty much favored in the spot.
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Long story short, I'm going Chargers guys.
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It just seems kind of like a fishy in a good way, play to
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back the Chargers at home with these historical results of
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these primetime home favorites. So my first play is chargers
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-140 on the money line. In terms of the total, it's been
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pretty clear that it looks like some under money here.
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It opened as high as 42 1/2. It's now down to 41 1/2.
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Some books even down to 41. Bet splits look pretty good at
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both Circa and DraftKings for the under.
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At DraftKings, 61% of bets are on the over, yet the total fell.
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So classic RLM at circa, the under is only getting 48% but
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67% of dollars. So good low bets, higher
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dollars. Contrarian split.
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Then we layer in some system matches when the total falls at
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least a point in a divisional game.
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The under is 21 and 16 this year, 57% primetime unders.
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Now they're dead. Even 25 and 25 this year, but
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they are 58% since 2019. The Chargers 9:00 and 5:00 to
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the under on the year. And again, we've got a lot of
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these system matches here toward the under.
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And these teams did play in Week 6 and the Chargers won 23 to 16.
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So that was a lower scoring game.
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So I lean under. But to me, if you're going to
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tease up Denver 2 1/2 to 8 1/2, my suggestion would be
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considered teasing that total up and taking the under.
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So at 41 1/2. And again, if you're going to
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tease it, you got to find the hook there because some books
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are at 41, but 41 1/2 up to 47 1/2 and take the under.
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That'll be a suggestion of mine. But the only thing I played
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here, guys fishy kind of kind of buy low play on the Chargers.
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I got the Chargers on the money line at -140 Now a player prop
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for you, Quinton Johnston, over 35 1/2 receiving yards.
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Now, this is very, very important that you place this
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bet if you're going to play it at Bet MGM, because at Bet MGM
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it's 35 1/2 / -, 120. At FanDuel it's 39 1/2.
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At ESPN bet it's 39 1/2. At Caesar's it's 37 1/2.
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And I don't need to tell you the importance because you guys know
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and you probably know because you, you suffered terrible
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anxiety and, and sadness over this recently, or at least I
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did. But how important is just a half
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point? It's huge.
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Or half yard, I should say. I'll I'll never forget my
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losses. Sometimes you win games and you
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remember your losses more than your wins.
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But I'll give you examples recently, Jacoby Meyer's last
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last game over 59 1/2 lands 59. I also had who was it before
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that? It was Bryce Young over 191 1/2,
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landed 191. George Kittle, I forgot what
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that was. Was it 61 1/2 and it landed 61?
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I know that three of my last player props, I bet I've lost by
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1/2 point. So it's really important that
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you have Bet MGM and get that over 35 1/2 because let's say it
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lands on 36. That means you lose you're
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FanDuel, Caesars and ESPN bet play, but you win your Bet MGM.
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So why am I going Quentin Johnston over?
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Well #1 he's gone over this number in two straight games.
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Last week, he had five catches for 45 yards against the Bucks.
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I also like that he's being more involved in the passing game.
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He has averaged 8 1/2 targets over his last two games.
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That's the most on the team. Broncos, meanwhile, 312 passing
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yards per game allowed over the last three games.
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Broncos also have some injuries here.
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They won't have Riley Moss, one of their starting corners and
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Patrick. Sir Tan was questionable, looks
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like he is going to play, but he could be banged up.
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He left the last game with a ankle injury.
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And again, this is a play where hopefully, I don't know who Sir
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Tan may cover, like maybe covers Lad Mcconkey.
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And that provides some good matchups here for Quentin
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Johnston. But the cherry on top here is
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over 35 1/2 at Bet MGM, Rhythm is predicting 47.3.
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So again, got to shop around, got to have multiple outs.
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But I put in Quinton Johnston, remember him from TCU, over 35
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1/2 at Bet MGM. So Chargers to win the game.
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Money line -140 Quinton Johnston over 35 1/2 receiving yards.
15:58
Now over to some college football because we got one game
16:02
here tonight, Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State.
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And I'm going to be following the same model that helped us
16:08
catch a bet last night, line movement as well as opt outs.
16:12
Who's playing and who isn't. So this is the New Orleans Bowl,
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which is will be played at the Superdome down in down in NOLA.
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And what do we have here? First, we have Georgia Southern
16:24
coming in eight and four. They've won three of their last
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four. Sam Houston comes in nine and
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three. They just beat Liberty 20 to 18
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in the last game of regular season.
16:35
And what are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, number one, we did see a move at one point heavily toward
16:41
Georgia Southern, like Georgia Southern at some shops open as
16:44
low as -3 1/2 - 4 1/2. At one point they got all the
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way up to -7 And you're asking yourself, OK, what was the big
16:51
move there toward Georgia Southern?
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Well, the angle here, and we've since seen an adjustment.
16:58
So it, it got all the way up to Georgia Southern -7 now it's
17:01
back down to Georgia Southern minus 3 1/2 - 4.
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So again, it was 3/3 and 1/2 or four got all the way to 7.
17:08
Now it's back down to 3 1/2 or 4.
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So we're basically kind of back where we started.
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But what was the cause of that drastic line movement?
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Well, once again, bowl season, you got to do your research
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here. So what I was reading about,
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which again was important to our UNLV Cal play last night, was
17:25
that on the one hand, we have Georgia Southern fully loaded.
17:28
Everyone's expected to play No opt outs.
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Of note, they're coaching Clay Hilton as their head coach.
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He's making his third straight bowl game with Georgia Southern.
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On the other hand, you have a lot of opt outs on Sam Houston
17:41
State. So Sam Houston State has a bunch
17:44
of guys in the portal. They're going to be down a ton
17:46
of guys on defense. And also they have an interim
17:49
coach tonight. Their head coach left to go
17:52
coach Temple. So basically the big move toward
17:56
Georgia Southern was the news that you had all these opt outs
17:58
for Sam Houston State. That's why you saw the sign get
18:01
all the way up to as high as seven.
18:02
Now, why did it come back down? My guess in what I was reading
18:07
is that some of these guys, when you had a laundry list of guys
18:10
opting out, it seems like now at least a few of them are going to
18:13
play in this game. So not playing versus now a few,
18:16
at least a few playing. That's why you saw it still come
18:19
back down a little bit. But still, even with a couple of
18:22
them now playing, you still have a lot of opt outs on Sam Houston
18:25
State. You have an interim coach with
18:28
your head coach leaving for Temple and you have Georgia
18:30
Southern fully loaded, no opt outs.
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And again, I'm going to put a big head coaching advantage
18:36
hopefully on Georgia Southern because again, Clay Hilton has
18:39
been there a while. It's his third straight bowl
18:41
game. So bowl game experience.
18:43
And you have a new head coach, interim coach for Sam Houston
18:46
after your coach just left the other angle for me or two other
18:49
angles, 1 is offense. You have Georgia Southern
18:52
averaging 28 points per game. Sam Houston averages 23.
18:57
You saw that last night with UNLV having a better offense
19:00
versus Cal. And then also Sam Houston.
19:03
They're a great story. They just joined D1 their first
19:06
year in D1, I believe they're 3:00 and 9:00 and then they were
19:09
nine and three. So give them all the credit for
19:11
turning their program around. But I kind of want to bet
19:14
against the team that's that's kind of new to the D1 Division
19:16
One versus a team that Georgia Southern is used to Division
19:20
One. So add it all up here, guys.
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We got a big move at one point toward Georgia Southern.
19:25
It's now come back down, but Joss, so as I like to call him
19:29
Georgia Southern, they got everybody playing and their
19:31
coach Sam Houston's got a lot, a lot of opt outs and as an
19:34
interim coach. So what I'm going to do and what
19:36
I did prior to the pod, I put it in Juice Reel, which you can
19:39
always find the best bets from the ASG pod there.
19:41
I money lined Georgia Southern now it's a little bit high.
19:45
I got Georgia Southern -175 at ESPN bet, but I can't tell you
19:49
how important it is. If they win by three, you lose
19:52
your three and half or four. One thing I do like at Circa,
19:56
and this gave me a little bit more confidence, 25% bets, 76%
20:01
money on the money line for Georgia Southern.
20:03
So it looks like pros are also kind of money lining Georgia
20:06
Southern just to protect themselves.
20:08
And then cherry on top, Rhythm has Georgia Southern favored
20:12
-2.4. So it's a little bit lower than
20:15
the spread, but at least they have them winning the game by
20:17
close to a field goal. So add it all up here guys.
20:20
I'm going to bet on the team. That is fully locked and loaded
20:23
and I'm a sell on the team that's got opt outs in a
20:25
different a new coach. So I got Georgia Southern on the
20:28
money line. Win the damn game at -175.
20:32
Now let's go to college hoops. Couple college hoops games for
20:36
you tonight, including one team that you may have never heard of
20:40
and that team is Lindenwood, the Lindenwood Lions.
20:44
We got a game tonight, 8:30 PM Eastern Time.
20:46
Lindenwood is hosting Tennessee Tech now.
20:48
Lindenwood comes in five and six.
20:51
Tennessee Tech comes in four and seven.
20:53
But they're trending in opposite directions.
20:54
Tennessee Tech has lost four straight.
20:56
Lindenwood has one, two straight, and three of their
20:59
last four is a very low bet obscure game.
21:02
But it's pretty clear pros like Lindenwood, which is which is
21:05
why I like Lindenwood. But Lindenwood opened as an 830
21:09
game. I don't know if I mentioned that
21:10
on ESPN Plus, but Lindenwood open -1 1/2.
21:13
Lindenwood is now up to -2 1/2. So low bet obscure game again,
21:19
public doesn't care about this one.
21:21
They're more focused on Thursday Night Football, the bowl game.
21:24
So the fact that this game is under the radar, low bet, yet
21:27
we're seeing a line move toward Lindenwood tells me we got smart
21:30
money on the Lindenwood Lions bet splits look pretty good at
21:34
DraftKings on the spread. 61% bet, 71% dollars on Lindenwood.
21:39
I money line Lindenwood. So I got them on the money line.
21:44
What number did I get with them? I got them at.
21:48
Let me just double check which book has the best number -140 I
21:52
believe I got that at Caesar's. So this is a money line play for
21:54
me again -2 1/2 win by one or two we lose.
21:57
Money line we win. But I really like the Circa bet
22:00
split on the money line. Only 50% bets, but over 90%
22:03
dollars. Now Ken Palm is Lindenwood
22:06
winning by two. Rhythm has lindenwood -1.4.
22:10
But there are a bunch of advantages here for Lindenwood.
22:12
So the first one would be offensively, they're averaging
22:16
75 points a game versus only 72 for Tennessee Tech.
22:20
Nothing crazy there. But also if you look at rebound
22:23
percentage, offensive rebound percentage, 30% versus 24%,
22:28
rebounding overall, 37 boards a game versus 32.
22:32
Typically when you win the rebound battle, you're most
22:34
likely going to win the game. And then defensively,
22:37
defensively we have Lindenwoods ranked 68th in the country or
22:41
sorry, giving up 68 a game versus Tennessee Tech.
22:44
Giving up 78 a game also have a rest advantage.
22:48
Lindenwood last played on the 14th versus the 17th for
22:50
Tennessee Tech and also a schedule advantage.
22:54
If you look at home Rd. Lindenwood four and O at home,
22:58
Tennessee Tech O and six on the road.
23:00
So give me that home team versus the team that struggles on the
23:03
road. But also this is schedule spot
23:06
Tennessee Tech and I can't stress it enough to kind of
23:10
think through from if you've ever played on a sports team or
23:13
just thinking through, you know, Rd. trips and home Rd. and and
23:16
kind of the situation from a human standpoint.
23:19
I noticed that Tennessee Tech is playing their fifth straight Rd.
23:23
game. This is the last Rd. game on A5
23:25
game road trip they're Owen for and they've been getting blown
23:28
out on the road. So kind of tells me they
23:31
probably want to go home. They're sick of playing on the
23:33
road. I don't know if they're going to
23:35
mail it in here, but I like the chances of beating them tonight
23:39
versus Lindenwood, who's playing their third straight home game.
23:42
And they've won their first 2. So we have a low bed, obscure
23:45
line move toward lindenwood -1 and half up to -2 and half.
23:48
Great bet split. Ken Palm and Rhythm both have
23:51
them winning the game. Better offense, better defense,
23:54
better rebounding. Rested schedule spot.
23:57
Great at home. Tech is bad on the road.
23:59
I smell a money line play here, guys.
24:01
I got Lindenwood to hopefully win this game at -140 last bet
24:06
in college hoops. And then I got an NBA play for
24:08
you to finish up the pod. South Dakota and Utah Tech now
24:14
going to this one. This is a 9:00 game and it will
24:18
be I believe on ESPN Plus. So be able to sweat this, sweat
24:22
this one if you'd like. But going into it, we have let
24:26
me just pull this up and the tab.
24:29
I don't know if you guys do this, but I'm on a desktop, so I
24:32
have two screens and I usually have all the games in front of
24:34
me just so I can reference them and for whatever reason IX out
24:37
of all my tabs. So let me just pull it back up
24:39
all right here got it for you. So going to this one we have
24:42
South Dakota 9:00 and 4:00 and they have won three of their
24:45
last four two in a row Utah Tech 3 and 10.
24:49
They just had a win against the Whittier poets.
24:53
By the way, that is a that is a great mascot and that snapped A4
24:57
game losing streak. But going into it now again,
25:01
South Dakota nine and four, Utah Tech 3 and 10.
25:04
Now I'd love to tell you, hey, let's let's go contrain, let's
25:06
go the other way. Let's take the three and ten
25:08
team who's desperate for a win. I ain't doing that.
25:11
I like South Dakota on this one and I also think this is a play
25:15
where don't outsmart yourself too much like if Utah tech wins,
25:18
tip your cap. But let's see what the betting
25:20
market is doing South Dakota going into this game.
25:23
They open as low as -2 -2 1/2. Now they're up to -2 1/2 or -3.
25:28
So we have a late night 9 O clock low bet game.
25:31
Yet we're seeing line movement towards South Dakota.
25:34
Now if you look at the bet splits here at circa 80% bets
25:39
89% dollars are on South Dakota. At DraftKings on the money line,
25:45
81% bets 83% dollars. Circa money line, 50% bets over
25:50
90% dollars on South Dakota. And again, you may say those
25:54
numbers I gave you in the 80s. Oh, that's a public play, right?
25:57
I always try to stress this. You always got to look at the
25:59
how heavily bet a game is. Again, 80% of bets in the NFL,
26:03
heavily bet sport. That's something I got to fade.
26:06
I never want to be on the 80% side with the public.
26:09
This kind of game low bet, even though it's 80%, it's not
26:13
popular. So that 80% is more likely
26:15
coming from, you know, basically respected betters who have
26:18
placed bets on the game. Now, South Dakota with that line
26:21
move -2 up to 2 1/2 or even 3. Ken Palm has a winning by one
26:26
rhythm has a -, 2.4. So that's a good thing.
26:29
But Ken Palm also has them ranked way higher.
26:31
He's got him ranked 223 in the country versus 300th for Utah
26:36
Tech Offensive efficiency, huge advantage here. 92nd in the
26:41
country for South Dakota versus Utah Tech, 273 effective field
26:46
goal percentage, 51% versus 46%. Offensively, South Dakota's
26:52
averaging 87 points a game versus only 70 for Utah Tech, so
26:56
hopefully they can outscore them.
26:58
Offensive rebound percentage 34% versus 25%, three-point shooting
27:03
31% versus 29%, and free throw shooting 70% versus 65%.
27:10
So of course, for me, money line play South Dakota again -2 and
27:15
half -3 I money line South Dakota, the Coyotes on the money
27:19
line at -137 so let's go South Dakota now.
27:24
Last bet of the night for us. This is a play actually that
27:28
I'll be honest with you guys. I noticed this sharp blind move
27:31
yesterday and I, I totally screwed up.
27:33
I didn't realize that the NBA was off last night.
27:36
I thought that, I thought that this game I'm about to talk
27:38
about Celtics and Bulls was for last night.
27:41
And then I realized, oh, it's tomorrow, which tomorrow is now
27:44
today. Anyway, I'm playing the under
27:47
here. Now.
27:48
This is a super high total. Bulls, Celtics, this is a 730
27:53
game tonight. Excuse me.
27:56
And we come in. Celtics 21 and five versus the
28:00
Bulls, 12 and 15. Bulls have won two straight,
28:03
Celtics have won two straight. Both teams haven't played in
28:06
quite a while. The 15th of December for the
28:08
Celtics, the 16th for the Bulls. First off, big spread.
28:12
Celtics are favored by 14 1/2 in this one, but the reason why I
28:15
put this in yesterday, aside from screwing up today was that
28:19
I noticed a lot of smart money on the under.
28:21
Now the first thing you're going to notice is this is a super
28:23
high total. This total Celtics bowls.
28:25
It actually opened as high as 245 and when I was thinking this
28:29
game was yesterday, I sock it down to 243 1/2 and I saw a ton
28:33
of smart money indicators and I said oh, I should jump on this
28:36
under 243 1/2. So I did I played it.
28:39
I woke up today the lines down to 241 1/2, some books even down
28:44
to 241. So on the one hand, the total
28:47
has continued to fall, which makes you happy if you jumped on
28:50
the 243 1/2, but also tells you that even though the lines
28:53
falling, pros are still hitting the under.
28:56
So this is the kind of play where basically when you see
28:59
consistent movement in One Direction with no buyback, it
29:01
means that even though the lines getting worse, pros still think
29:04
there's value. So if you didn't play the 243
29:07
1/2 and by the way, all the best bets are on Juice Reel, so you
29:10
might have seen it yesterday. Little tease why you should sign
29:13
up and follow the best bets for ASG podcast on Juice Real, but
29:17
you might have gotten a better number if you didn't.
29:19
I would still play this at under 241 1/2 DraftKings 65% bets, but
29:24
77% dollars are on the under. Boston is number 9 or top ten
29:30
basically in defensive efficiency.
29:32
Rhythm has this total at 240.6. So again, round up to 241 cash
29:39
with the hook. If you're going to play it, make
29:41
sure you find that 241 1/2 because again, some shops are at
29:44
2:41. But here's the the big angle for
29:47
the under. Remember we played this.
29:49
I forgot which game it was. It was maybe it was a game last
29:52
week, but big spread home under. So Celtics are favored by 14
29:58
1/2. Why is that important?
30:00
Because typically when you're up big, take your foot off the gas
30:03
garbage time, you chew the clock.
30:04
You just want to get out of there.
30:06
This system here that I came up with, if you are a home team
30:10
favored by 12 points or more, the under is 19 and 1261% this
30:15
season, 17% ROI. So we always talk about how you
30:19
know, if you're going to play an over, typically you want a short
30:21
spread like the dog is +5 or less back and forth, competitive
30:25
scoring, maybe get overtime, you start to foul at the end.
30:29
It's the opposite. When you are playing an under,
30:31
you want a big spread because basically if it's a blowout, the
30:34
the pace of play, the style of play changes.
30:37
It becomes, hey, just, you know, get out of there with a win,
30:40
stop, you know, stop pushing, stop scoring or limit it and
30:43
just chew the clock and get out of there.
30:45
So I played the under 243 1/2 Celtics bowls.
30:49
Again, if you're playing it now, at least try to find the hook
30:51
under 241 1/2. So Celtics bowls under South
30:55
Dakota and Lindenwood college hoops money lines, Georgia
30:58
Southern money line in the bowl game, Chargers money line and
31:01
Quentin Johnston over 35 1/2. So that about does it for
31:05
episode 186 of the all systems Go sports betting podcasts.
31:10
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and we
31:12
first start by thanking you. Thank you for taking the time
31:15
out of your busy lives to pull up a chair of the virtual bar,
31:18
put on your headphones when listening in the car or at home
31:21
or wherever. It means a lot to me that we've
31:23
built this community of data-driven betters together.
31:26
And again, we cash together, we lose together, but we are a we
31:30
are a group of data-driven betters who focus on not
31:33
opinion, not bias, but the market line movement and and
31:37
information making bets of their head and not our heart.
31:39
So thank you. I know, I know how busy life can
31:41
be, especially on the holidays with the fact you guys win, lose
31:44
or draw, tune in each day and value the insights.
31:47
That means the world to me. That being said, if you enjoy
31:50
the pod, could you do me a little favor?
31:51
You know what I want for Christmas or I want for
31:54
Hanukkah. I'm half Jewish, my mom's
31:56
Protestant. We do both holidays.
31:58
I might have mentioned before, but all I want from you is one
32:00
thing. Could you please give this
32:02
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes, go to rate
32:06
and review, give it five stars that mean a lot to me because it
32:10
helped us to continue to grow the pod.
32:11
If you want to click the follow button or recommend it to a
32:14
friend that would also be fantastic.
32:16
Next, if you enjoy the insights and you want to learn more about
32:20
data-driven sports betting or I keep saying it, but you need a
32:24
stocking stuffer. You it's, you know, you're
32:26
getting close to the wire here for, for the holiday season.
32:29
You got no idea what to get your aunt, your uncle, your cousin,
32:31
your nephew, your brother, your neighbor, the Yankee swap, the
32:35
white elephant, whatever you guys want to call it, I have a
32:38
great idea. Make it very easy on you.
32:40
Go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
32:44
Betting. That's my book.
32:45
I'm very proud of it, but it'll teach all the insurance and
32:48
outs. Everything I've learned about
32:49
how to be a data-driven sports better, how lines are set, how
32:52
and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate
32:55
sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
32:58
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan,
33:01
chapters on all the major sports.
33:02
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
33:04
Betting. Next, have you taken advantage
33:07
of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
33:09
Well, if you haven't, highly suggest that you do Juice Reel,
33:13
of course, or I should say rhythm.
33:15
Actually, Rhythm does a great job of helping us power this pod
33:19
and also giving us these data-driven models and
33:21
predictions for game bets and player props.
33:24
And then also with Juice Reel, where you can find the all
33:26
systems go best bets. You want to support the team.
33:29
Consider it a tip jar 499 a week to get all the all systems go
33:33
best bets and get them earlier than the podcast.
33:36
I'm typically putting them out morning, early afternoon.
33:39
So you get a leg up, hopefully get some CLV, but aside from
33:42
that, you also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, all the
33:45
arbitrage indicators, as well as the sharp mush plays and the
33:51
shop for the best line. That's really helpful, as well
33:53
as syncing up your sports books with juice reel.
33:55
So please go download juice reel and rhythm and add them to your
33:59
sports betting toolkit. They help me win.
34:01
I'm confident they'll help you win.
34:03
So that about does it for today's pod on a big thirsty
34:06
Thursday. As always, I'm going to leave
34:07
you with two things. First, whether I see you at the
34:10
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
34:13
of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
34:16
at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
34:19
Springfield in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
34:22
And I can't wait to get to the Nash because it's getting closer
34:25
and closer to opening the new Nashua Sports Book and Casino.
34:29
But then, of course, out in the desert where the true grinders
34:31
get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners with
34:34
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point or
34:37
sweat and sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
34:39
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
34:41
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to show me a UNLV
34:45
dog to fave line move. Bradley.
34:47
UC Riverside. That was the nice one last
34:49
night. UC Riverside.
34:50
Because when you're down 12 1/2, you typically don't expect to
34:53
win that game. But UC Riverside roared backs.
34:55
That was great to see. Let's see if we can keep the win
34:58
streak going guys continuing to claw our way out from a big hole
35:01
that we dug over the last week. But that's the beauty of sports
35:04
betting up down, treading water. We always grind.
35:07
So as always guys, stay sharp, stay contrary and bet against
35:10
the public. Place yourself on the side of
35:11
the house. Always be with the smart money,
35:13
never against it will smart money when every time,
35:16
unfortunately, no betting is hard.
35:18
Crazy things happen. You can make a great bet and
35:20
lose. You can make a bad bet in a 5
35:23
second handicap and win, but over the over the long haul, you
35:26
know you're going to get these one offs that can go either way.
35:29
But over the long haul, if we can consistently bet games with
35:32
our head and not our heart, against the public, with the
35:34
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, if we can do that
35:37
long term, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
35:40
So have a great Thirsty Thursday everybody.
35:43
Wish you the best of luck and we'll be back at it tomorrow for
35:46
a big Friday edition of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
35:50
podcast episode 187, which of course, as always, is powered by
35:54
rhythm. Have a great night everybody and
35:56
good luck.