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Transcript

Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity in 100 Years + Stock Market News 04 December 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Let me move the mic a little bit here, and I'm excited, I'm very excited by what's going on out there.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: The opportunities are tremendous.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: So who is here to make some money?
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Let me know, put I am in the chat or in the comments, and let us know that you are actually here to make some money, and I will share my screen with you and walk you through what I think is the really important stuff here today.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, anyone here to make money, anybody at all.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Anybody at all.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: The Winstonians, palantir some of you are saying SoFi, crash, notgrass, saying I am PeeWee is here to make money, sean's here to make money, mike's here to make money, mark's here to make money, remy and Lana and David and Matthew and Simon and God, it's going down so quickly.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: I can't read it all out, but brilliant.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Ok, I'm glad we're on the same page, because that's really ultimately what this is all about page, because that's really ultimately what this is all about.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to share with you here four crucial concepts that, when you combine them together, will guide you towards your goal of making more money from investing.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like the four wheels on a car, so we're going to get straight into it.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: The first item here and I'm liking all the IAMs and the Me Too's as well Brilliant, everyone's here to make money.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I just want to see.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Winston says Joe, we can do something about that.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Joe, if you like One second, one second, winston, come, come on, come on, come on, come on, come on, in.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Your wish was my command, winston, hang on.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Here he is.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: We just played very nicely outside, didn't we Winston?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: A bit of a game of fetch.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: So he's nice and sleepy.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: He is, of course, the brains behind the whole thing where all the good thinking happens.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: He sleeps on research papers and that sort of thing.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: So let me close the door for a second and we go straight back into what we're up to here.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: You're good, winston.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I think Winston's good, all right.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So I said I want to walk you through four crucial pieces of information that will help you make more money from your money.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So make you a better investor.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: And suits and shorts?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, absolutely.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: That's the dress code around here, isn't it?
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: So let's look at item number one.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: The first thing that is critical to understand is where are market valuations right?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: If you want to understand what's going on out there, you need to have a bit of a framework and a bit of an understanding of where the big market picture sits, and we're going to walk through a couple of patterns here that will help you with that.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: So the first thing is the simplest way although, yeah, the most simplistic way to look at valuations is something that I think everybody's heard of.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: It's PE ratio.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Who's heard of the PE ratio?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Put a number one in the chat if you've heard of the PE ratio, and it's basically price divided by earnings.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Now, earnings is a fancy word that makes bankers sound smarter.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: It's basically profit.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: So, okay, what that means is you're taking the price of the stock, dividing it by the profit per share, and then you're getting to some sort of number.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Now it's a bit of a backward-looking thing.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really okay.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Everybody understands what PE is here.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm loving all the ones.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Brilliant.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: I didn't offer an option two did I.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: If you don't know what it is, I've hopefully explained it for you now.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So everyone's on the same page.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of a snapshot of the.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Now it doesn't work super well for, say, stocks that are growing really quickly, but anyway, it's a rough metric.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: No metric is perfect, but PE is pretty popular.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: So right now the PE of the market is 34.5.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: And that in itself is meaningless, isn't it?
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Absolutely meaningless.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the history here and you have a chart here that shows you the PEs from 1995 to right now, you see we're sort of, you know, not super low, not crazily high, and in 2000, we hit 68.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So almost double, basically double where we are right now.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: So it is possible to go much higher.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Now why do I point out 2000?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Wasn't that a terrible bubble?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Didn't everything collapse?
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Yes, it did.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: I started my investing journey in 1999.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: I lost half my money in the first year of investing, which is a bit like a bucket of ice-cold water hitting you in the face, not particularly to be recommended.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: But what was different in 2000.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: ?
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: So in 2000, all of these companies trading at these high multiples, they had no profits.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: They had not even a plan to make money, like Facebook, for example right, everyone's using it, but they had no intention to make any money.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: They had no advertising.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Nobody knew what the heck was going on, and there are plenty of companies that actually had really terrible businesses out there.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So they just never made any money and then they went out of business.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: But right now, the biggest growers out there in terms of stocks are what stocks I mean?
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I think you probably know, right, nvidia You've heard that stock's gone up a lot.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Right, it's your Microsoft, it's your Palantir, you know that kind of thing and they all have one thing in common, your Palantir, you know that kind of thing and they all have one thing in common, and that one thing is that they are all profitable.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: So we're in a much, much better place than we were in 2000.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So you have a picture here that valuations are a little bit elevated compared to the last couple of years, but not like crazy, like they were in the dot-com boom and at the same time, the companies are fundamentally in a much, much better place.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Facebook didn't exist in 2000.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: It started in 2004.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I think you're probably right, but you get the idea right.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: There were a lot of companies back then that weren't making any money.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So the second piece of information that I think is crucial to understand are what I would call market patterns, and the stock market moves in incredibly predictable patterns, and once you understand them, you'll be able to spot your winners much, much more easily.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: You'll be able to spot your winners much, much more easily.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So this here shows you the S&P.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I'll try to zoom in a bit more for you.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: This is our second item here.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: It shows you the bull markets in the S&P 500 since 1966.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: The particular reason is just that when the data started and what you see right now is that this is now you see that little red line there In the background.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: All these gray lines were all the other rallies no-transcript that one here that was 1987 till 2000.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: And what happened?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: We went up 582%.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: The second best one, which is, I suspect, that line here was 2009 to 2020, which was only stopped by COVID, and we went up 400%.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So you get the picture that we are only at the very, very, very beginning of what historic bull runs have been and that, yeah, we're up 50% in this bull run.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So right now we're up 50%, but we've had these rallies where we were up 400%, 582% and plenty in between 100, 200, that sort of thing.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So there is what, in a nutshell there is potential.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: There is a potential that it could go much, much higher.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So when people are saying, get out of the market because you're up 50%, well, those people are poor.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: It's very simple, because it's a stupid idea.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: You want to have exit rules, yes, you want to have a stop loss, probably, but you don't want to just randomly take profits, because if you took profits in you know 1989 and then you didn't buy stocks again until 2000,.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Do you think that was a good idea?
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Probably not, right.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: So that's our second part here is market patterns and the third part comes into stock selection.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Third part again comes into stock selection and a few more words on that.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: I also want to give you some bonus buys for today and we'll run through all your favorite stocks and everything else in a little while.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: But this is again a bit of statistic.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: That kind of knocked my socks off here and some of you are saying clickbait in the thumbnail, because what's the number I put in?
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: The number I put in was Netflix total return since its IPO 82,000%.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Now, maybe you thought I was cherry picking.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Well, I could have picked Nvidia, which was 380,000%.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: So I actually picked the eighth best stock, not the number one stock.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: And again, what that shows you is that winners become tremendous winners and in my humble opinion, it is usually the past winner that is the future winner.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: The next Netflix is Netflix, the next NVIDIA is probably NVIDIA, the next Tesla is probably Tesla, the next Palantir is probably Palantir.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: There are exceptions, but that's generally what we're looking at.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So there are some insanely, insanely profitable stocks out there.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: So what does that therefore mean for us?
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Well, we all want to spot winners, right, and there is a very powerful technique that I actually want to share with you.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: But before I do, let me show you something, just so that I know we're all kind of clear of expectations.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to show you two trades that I have open right now, and these are stock trades, and I have them open in a small portfolio which I use for teaching.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: And this here is a stock called FOA.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I mentioned this to some of you before and I bought it.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: You can see this is a screenshot from Webull right, I bought it at 9.36.50.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: So if we draw a straight line here, are we allowed?
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I painted over that.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: That's probably not particularly useful, right, let's go back.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Can we delete that?
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: You can't see anything anymore.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: The line came in a little bit fatter than expected, so we bought it here.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: That was the buy.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: And why was that the buy?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Because it triggered our rules, our indicators, volume moving averages, stock was moving, moving up and so on.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: And then it actually didn't do very much for a while and I was getting a little bored with it, but I held onto it because that's what our system teaches.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: And then it went up tremendously and I was up 125%.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Did I take profits?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: I did not, and right now it's up about 100%.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: It's trading right here right now.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: And am I glad that I'm holding onto it?
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Yes, I'm very glad that I'm holding on to it.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: You might think, well, but why?
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: You lost 25%?
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Yes, but you see, I'm still in the trade and I have a stop loss set up here at this red line, which means this is a risk-free trade for me.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So my worst case scenario is I make 80%.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's my worst case outcome and hopefully the stock will do this and case outcome.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: And hopefully the stock will do this and that and this and that and this and that and this and so on, and then I'll move my stop loss up and then I'll move it up, and then I'll move it up and I'll lock in more and more and more gains Because, who knows, maybe this thing will go up 30,000% or 82,000%, like Netflix, I don't know, it could be, it might not, it may not, but it may.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: But I give it the opportunity to do that and that's really what we look for.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Well, here's another one which is slightly less exciting, but it's also a trade I've got open right now Jefferies Financial Group Boring right, really really boring stock, and I got in at $62.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I think here that was okay, wrong color.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Let's use green for that, so it's a little clearer.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: So I bought this here.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: That was the buy, and again it was triggered by big volume and so on.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: And right now we're up.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I think we're up 25% on that.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: And again I have a stop loss which is here, which means this is basically a risk-free trade right now, because I am almost definitely making this gain here, but I'm hopeful that it might continue to go up and up and up, in which case we'll lock in more and more profit.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: So that's sort of the outcome here.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: So I just wanted to show you that to make sure it's clearer.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: And yeah, foa is sort of a bank mortgages and that sort of thing Incredibly boring, but the chart does well and financial sector is looking very, very, very good right now.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: So, if you take a step back for a second, why do you do what you do?
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Why are you here?
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Why do you want to become a better investor?
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Maybe you think you need more money, but it's not actually that you need more money.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: What you need is a skill that can get you the money whenever you want.