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The Favorites - NFL Week 7 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week seven episode. We will break down the
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exec
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: decision and our Simon says and start to narrow down
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the options for a five phaves to put into the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We went two and three this past week, and considering
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: how the Favorites did, how Road Favorites did going nine
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: to oh after the Bills won last night and after
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the Bengals won on Sunday night, those are classic spots
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: for Simon and I to fade the fact we went
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: two and three. I am gonna take that because we
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: had the full experience of life betting games this weekend.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: It was like parenting, working, eating, drinking, the roller coaster
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: of everything that we choose to do on a daily basis,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna do it all again this week live
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as always
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, Mike and Padre might
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: be a professional better. Simon Hunter Ero, Simon, Hello, Chad.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's what the best Sunday ever for the betting
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: in public, and capped off by our brutal loss for
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: me in that Giants game. And then last night. I
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: don't know if you watched that game, because I know
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: you're traveling. That was the worst football game I've watched
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: in years. I mean, the refs made it unwatchable, the miskicks,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: all of it, even the stupid roughing the passer penalty
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: was just brutal. And Aaron Rodgers, It's just it's everything.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Chad hates these referees controlling these games. I'm with you.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: I try to hold firm because to me there is
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: no such thing as bad football because I just love
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: it so much. But fucking had was at some bad football.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Last night, you know, Simon, I'm so glad you said that.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I was watching the game on my flight last night,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: and it's excruciating. And you watch these games over the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: course of the weekend and it feels like, anecdotally, this
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: is my judgment, what is it twenty thirty percent? Maybe
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: more of big plays are either negated or impacted by
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: penalties like last night, the Jets had a long throw
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: to Garrett Wilson down the middle of the field. They
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: called PI and they also called like illegal formation. And
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: these illegal formation penalties are ruining the game. They truly are,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: because it is impossible to watch. You see the flag
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: go up as soon as the ball is snapped. You
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: know it's a dead play. You know it's not an
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: off side. So you know somebody didn't line up with
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: their helmet on the midline. You know somebody lined up
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: uncovered on the line. They got to figure this out
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: on the competition committee. I'm serious. I'm not talking about
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: it as a better I'm talking about it as a fan.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Like there's no rhythm to these games. There's no predictability.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Every good play gets called back because of something stupid.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: And I know the players should understand how to line up.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: The coaches should coach these guys to know where to be.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: But clearly something is missing, and I don't understand the
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: value of some of these plays. You're not getting that
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: much of an edge if you're Juwan Taylor and you're
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: lining up in the backfield. That's one thing. If you're
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: lining up with nobody covering you. As a receiver. You're
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: three feet off the line of scrimmage. That is impacting
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: nothing like some of these rules. It is infuriating to
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: watch these games. I was so glad to miss so
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: much of that game last night.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I said to my buddy I was watching
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: the game. I was like, if this is one PM,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. Sure call the game as tight as
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: you possibly can. Say, prime time game, you can call
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: holding penalty on every single snap. We always talk about
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: it all the time. Do you really need to call
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: it on every important third down or every time a
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: touchdown scored. It's like, okay, it's it just was a
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: brutal product. Like you said, it's you know, Goodell made
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: a call. Like there's just there's no way they're gonna
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: let this continue where you know, we saw a couple
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago on the Thursday and night games there's
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: too much referees. The same happened last night. It's just
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: these primetime games. We can't let the stars of the
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: show be their refs. It needs to be the players.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Twenty two penalties last night. You mentioned Aaron Rodgers, you
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: mentioned the roughing the passer. Even Rogers said postgame last night,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: those were those weren't roughing the passers on him?
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because it was. It was terrible.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: It was terrible. So anyways, Yeah, like last night, I
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: felt like we were cursed by the history of the Meadowlands.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: We had a ch ants with the Giants to get
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: that cover. Chase Brown fumbles, the ball goes through a
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Giant defender's hands as he's trying to recover it. Last night,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen by the goal line about going to score
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: on another drive, he fumbles, the ball goes through with
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Jets defenders hands as he tries to recover it. Like
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: just critical critical, Meadowlands misbounces for us on both the
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Bengals and Giants, and the Jets and the Bills both
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: end up being losers for us feel lucky to have
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: escaped with a two and three week. In a moment,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: we'll recap the results of week six. In our contents,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: we'll announce the winner of our big weekly cash prize.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: If you haven't yet, be sure to sign up for
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the Free Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest presented by bet three six five Just
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: visit Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot Com as a reminder of
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: and now new Bet three six five. Customers get two
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: hundred bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in place a
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars and
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spread totals,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more witever the moment, It's never
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: restrictions supply all right. Congrats to Week six first place
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: winner Z four oh one. We actually had nine entries
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: go five and zero get within two yards of the
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Monday night football tiebreaker, but only two entries nailed the
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker exactly because Z fourh one submitted first. Z takes
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: home a two thousand dollars prize. Well done. As always,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup award for the
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: entry that finished dead last in the contest.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: Have you about the loads and lose? He's a Louis
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: about he still kids on try.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to John Patterson. Congrats on
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: your oh and five week and missing the tiebreaker by
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: two one hundred and ninety four yards. John Patterson, please
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: email Matt Mitchell at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: claim your prize. All right, I think we got to
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: change the contest tiebreaker to number of penalty yards and
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: these in these Monday night games because it's just getting ridiculous.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it. First game up Thursday night football.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: We got a Barne Berner Denver Broncos visiting the New
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Orleans Saints Simon last college football season. If we had
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: playing Spencer Rattler, it might have been like the eighth
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: game we might be interested in. Instead, we get it
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: in prime time. And this line has moved quite a
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: bit since it opened. It it had already moved from
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: New Orleans like I think two to two and a
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: half to one. When we knew it was going to
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: be rattler. Now it's all of a sudden it moved
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: to New Orleans plus two Like that seems like a
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: ridiculous move to me. Bo Nicks as a road favorite,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: we already felt bad that he was going to be
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: a home favorite of a field goal. Give me your take.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Care Oovers Spencer, Chad, what a game to get you
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: fired up? A good old Bo Spencer Bowl game. Seriously,
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: it's gross, but you just nailed it right. We're supposed
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: to take the Saints here, especially off all this line movement,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: and I think it could because a Lave is out
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: as well. You know, we'll see who the healthy receivers
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: are going to be for the Saints team all. They
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: have a lot of injured guys right now, so that's
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: what the movement's based off of. Because of that, I'm
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: going Broncos. I know it's tough. I can't believe I'm
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: doing it, but you know, I like to take the
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: favorites on Thursday Night. I mean I talk all the time.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: There's just there's a reason that the favorites historically this
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: is the spot you want to take them. And this
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: week I really want to be on the home Dogs year,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: it's just tough for me to get there. Like the injuries,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: we talked about how they're going to catch up for
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: the Saints team, how do they not catch up to
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: a team that now has their number one, number two
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: receiver out, their best offensive lineman's out, and they're starting
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks out. So on the flip side, Denver, they've kind
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: of for the most part, escaped this injury bug. And
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: I know they looked bad last week, but I was
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: impressed by bow Knicks coming back in that game like
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: the kid. The kid has a never die attitude, turned
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: that into a ball game last week where most rookie
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: qbs kind of go well as me, me and pack
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: it in. And we did not see that last week
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: for Bonnick. So I bet this when it was Broncos
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: minus one, I'd still take it here at minus two.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Once across is two and a half, though, that's when
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: I think the value really shifts to the Saints team.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: So I think if you want to take the Broncos here,
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: I think there's still value on this number. It's just
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: too much going on with this Saints team that really
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: back down right now. I don't I if I have
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: a clear pitcher that a lobby is playing. Maybe I'll
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: change my tune here, But having a rookie quarterback now
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: with a bang up offensive line, with his number three,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: number four receiver being his number ones, that to me
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: is just too much for Spencer Ratler to overcome.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, the injuries are significant. My favorite thing about
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Bonix this year, you know, I love the relationship that
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: he's building with Sean Payton yea. And that fight that
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: they got into in the middle of the game before
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: the week before the Chargers and at the postgame press
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: conferencer during the week. I can't remem but what it was.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Someone asks both of them about it, and Sean Payton
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: is giving sort of a thoughtful answer of bon Nicks
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: as a rookie quarterback and he's learning, and bo Nicks
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: gets the question and his answer is, oh, he just
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: said I love you and I just said I love
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: you back. Like the guy clearly has a great attitude.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: He is clearly fearless when it comes to this stuff.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: And as you noted, and he's done this multiple times
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: now this season where his team is out of it,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: and go back to Week one against the Seahawks, like
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: he kept grinding kept trying to learn, kept trying to
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: make the red passes, and we see it. The Broncos
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: are not pulling any punches. They are not giving him
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: a rookie playbook. That first pass in the game against
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, it was an interception, but they're going down
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the field like Sean Payton is not pulling any punches here.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Very impressive. I don't mind what you're saying. I don't
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: want to bet it. I actually bet the under in
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: this game. That's the first thing I did. I got
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: it at thirty seven and a half. I think I
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: will not touch a side in this game. I'm sick
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: of refs ruining my primetime games. Pats versus Jacks, Jags
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: are five and a half point favorites. This is the
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: London game. So like the bad news for the Jags,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: there is real chaos on this team. Our guy Doug Peterson,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: who we love, he's on his last legs here. Trevor
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Lawrence is regressing. A player on defense came out and
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: said after the Bears game that they basically gave up
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: in that game, which Doug Peterson refuted. The good news
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: favorites excel in the international games with the historically dominant
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams leading the Bears this past weekend. There are
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: now thirty six to ten to one straight up, thirty
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: two and fifteen against the spread. That's the favorites. What
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: do you think here?
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: Just kind of going back to what he did last week?
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, Evan Gave has had an amazing stat Before
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: last week, rookie quarterbacks were zero to five against the
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: spread in this exact spot playing international games for those
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks had lost by fourteen plus. And you know what
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: we saw last week was Williams. He's different. I mean
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: we talked about we never seen a rookie QB throw
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: for four touchdowns in an international game like that's.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: And run for a touchdown and run for five touchdowns
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: in the game. Let's just be clear it's five touchdowns
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: in the game.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's impressive. There's a reason this spreads that big though,
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: because people were asking shouldn't we take Drake May? The
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Jags are terrible, they shouldn't be respected this much is
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: too much of a movement. I think it's just based
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: off those statistics where favorites usually cover, they usually do
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: well in London, and then you mixing rookie quarterbacks tend
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: to struggle in this exact spot. So you're right, Doug
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Peterson loses this game, he's guaranteed to be fired. I mean,
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: this is a guaranteed fired spot for Doug Peterson. And
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: as an Eagles fan, I've been hearing it is that
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: Eagles Nick Foles Doug Peterson flukia super Bowl ever in
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: NFL history. It's it's hard to debate it now there
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: were this many years later. It's like, it is pretty
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: crazy think back that this man was able to motivate
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: that team. And you know, I still think Doug's a
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: good coach. It's just things are not bouncing their way
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: for this Jaguars team. Like everything that could go wrong
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: keeps going wrong for them, even in against your Bears team,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Like opening drive, they get the ball back, he throws
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: a pass in the second half, the guy fumbled it.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: You guys go right down the field, scored and a touchdown.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: I was just it just everything keeps going wrong for
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: this team. So thank god, we can't put this one
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: in contest, but I'll bet it right now it's under
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: six to five and a half. I'll take that number,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: but with very little confidence in my betting this Jaguars team.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a really tough spot for Drake May
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: and terrible spot. It is also a Jaguars team. Like
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: you said, Doug Peterson's coaching for his life here and
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: he might be at a point where he's just like
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: freaking fire me. Let me get back to the south,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: to South Jersey, get on the beach, go play some pool,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: have some beers. Like this is just not what I
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: was expecting at all. And the Jaguars owners said before
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the season, this is the best roster they've ever had,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: like they had a very high expectation. So all of
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: a sudden, Trevor Lawrence and what will be I think
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: year four or five will now be going on to
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: his third new head coach and have an albatross of
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: a massive deal hanging over the entire franchise. And by
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the way, they've signed a lot of guys to big deals,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: not just Trevor Lawrence. They got josh Heinz Allen too,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: So they have committed a lot of money to guys
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: who are not getting it done. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Thank god,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: we can't put it in the contest. Miami at Indianapolis,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts are three and a half point favorite.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Let me set a scene for you. Okay, So yesterday
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I'm flying. I was working on my notes for the show.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Today I got to this game. I could not think
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: of who the quarterback was for the Miami Dolphins. I
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: had to look it up. I typed in Miami Dolphins
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback. The only name that came up was Tua. Finally,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: I looked at the Dolphins depth chart and I got
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: to Skyler Thompson and Tyler Huntley. That's when I finally
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: figured out who the quarterback was. So at this point,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I don't want to touch this game because I think
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson is going to play, at least that's what
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: they're saying he's expected to start. Is he a three
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite against literally anyone lining up
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: behind center for the Dolphins.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you've already seen a couple of books move this
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: down to three for your exact reasoning. It's just you're
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: getting the hook. You know, we all know Miami has
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: just lost right now, and I agree with a lot
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: of people that you know, they could be well another
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: one of those teams that they could be firing their
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: coach in a couple of weeks because it's just all
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: so bad for this team, and it can it can
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: get away from them pretty quick. But I'm with you here, Chad.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: It's it feels like it's too many points for Richardson,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: who hasn't played in a game in what three four weeks.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: You know, despite what we want to think about Miami,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: they still have a great run blocking scheme, Like they
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: can still run the ball pretty damn well. So we've
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: seen this Colts defense. I'm still embarrassed that I thought
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: it was dan Quinn when it was Gus Bradley. Like
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: I confused these middle aged, older white men, and I
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: thought Gus Bradley was a coach with Washington and Dan
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: Quinn was the DC of the Colts. I'm sorry for
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: besmirching his good name, because Gus Bradley's terrible right now.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: This Colts defense is terrib bull. They're so bad in
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: so many different ways. So I'm with you, Chad. If
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: I had to pick this game, I'll take the three
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: and a half on Miami. But it's it's such a small
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: bet because I have no real read on this game
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: at all.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: It's just it's a team that's completely lost its mojo,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: its personality. We all not too we talk about we
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: don't think he's that good of a quarterback. He's a
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: product of the system. He's gotten the guaranteed money. But
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: there is something to be said for being so good
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: within the system. He was clearly the ignition for getting
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: a Tyreek Hill, getting a jail and Waddle get you know,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Divonne h Chain. Like the way they are able to
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: move the ball when he is the quarterback, it's just
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: decidedly different. I think it's taking some of the mojo
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: from Mike McDaniel too.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: Like it's weird though, why would I get Like you
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: want to protect your first round pick and you're the
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: guy you took so early with Anthony Richardson, But the
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: way flack Goo has been playing, I feel like he
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: has earned the starting role and they're about to go
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: into this shit like this is literally the toughest part
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: of the season coming up. Okay, they get Miami, no problem,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: then they go at Houston at Minnesota, home versus Buffalo
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: at the Jets, and then home versus Detroit, Like that
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: is just an insane stretch that in whose mind is
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson Get you through that, Like, I just think
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: it's really funny they're going back to him where you're
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: three and three right now, I could see Flacco still
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: a couple of those games, and you could still at
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: the end of it be have a winning record with
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson. I just don't have that type of faith,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: So I think this has got to be coming from ownership.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: I just have no other reason why they'd be then
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: benched Joe Flacco right now?
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well that was gonna be. My question is I
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: think Shane Steichen's a really good coach, me too, And
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: you do wonder all right, after two years. One year,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: you weren't with Anthony Richardson. The second year, he's in
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: and out, in and out. Who knows if he'll stay
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: healthy the rest of the year, But he's clearly proven
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the ability to win as a coach when he had
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco, right and if this team
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: tanks over the next what is it eleven games? Is
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: he going to be blamed? Is all of a sudden
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: he fired? Have they pulled the cord too soon? He's
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: a really good coach, like nobody should be thinking about
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: getting rid of him. But if it's another terrible year.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: And ersay is like, I don't know what to do here,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: but I want to stick with Anthony Richardson. We invested
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: too much in him. I got to get rid of
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the coach. What happens here, Like, let's play this out
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: for a minute.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: You don't think so, No, I can't see him getting
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: fired after this year. But I agree with you. It
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: feels like he has a little bit tired Anthony Richson
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: at this point. So maybe that is part of the problem.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: The coaches just want to win, man, exactly. They just
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: want to win with the players they can trust. That's it.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: End of the day. Seattle at Atlanta, we had a
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: conversation about this one on Sunday night. It's been bouncing
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: around between two and a half and three since we
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: first discussed it. I've come to the conclusion I feel
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: like you like Atlanta here, and I'm really curious what
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: you're power rating is on this game.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just like the number. So I have this
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: game with three. It's two and a half to me.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: That's where the value is Atlanta. You know, the view
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: of this Atlanta team is they're not as good as
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: their record states. But I don't think they're as bad
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: as people perceive they are, right. I think offensively, there's
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: a lot to like there. Right they have a two
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: headed monster in the running backfield, and we've seen Pitses
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: look better throughout the season at tight end, And we
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: don't really have questions about London. Like to me, they're
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: pretty solid about what they are. On the flip side, Seattle,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: their defense, which you know they brought in the head
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: coach is supposed to fix it. Between all the injuries
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: they've had now to that defense as well, they're terrible.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: I mean we've had multiple weeks now this Seattle defense
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: just being dominated, not just against the run, but through
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: the air as well. Like they just have no strength
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: right now. And that to me is why I don't
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: really understand this number. It's like, all right, under a
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: field goal, you're giving me the better team at home.
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: I'll be the sucker. I'll take that number. If this
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: was number of three and a half, I could be
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: talking in Seattle, just because they do have such a
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: good offense with Gino and those weapons on the outside.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: But you know, we've seen it for a couple of
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: weeks now. This Seattle team just isn't that good And
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: it feels like, you know, people overreacted to it, you know,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: them being three and oh, it's the same thing we
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: talked about the Saints. Me and you were not buying
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: the Saints at all and if they start off too
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: and oh, and it threw us off the set, like
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: we felt we fell into the trap of yeah, the
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Saints team's not as bad as puper received. It's like, no,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: they're pretty bad. And then they've had bad injury luck.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: Same goes for the Seattle team. They've had some really
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: bad injury luck to their defense. So people betting on
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: this game, they're betting on this being a shootout. They
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: like Seattle left the three. I talk a couple of
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: professionals who like Seattle at the three. So that's why
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: this number is back down to two and a half.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: And I'll just take the sucker bet and the home
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: favorite under a field goal. And this in the team,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: it's it's tough to think that they're going to keep
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: covering all these games in a row, but it's just
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: an undervalued team right now to the sports books.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: It doesn't feel like a sucker's bet to me. So
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the reason I asked you you're power rating earlier instead
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: of sort of going through all the research first. Is
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: because I was sitting in the airport, you know, the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: the at the gate yesterday doing all my research and
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: stop clicking through my tabs and all that kind of stuff.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: And the Seattle team is middling at everything. Right. They're
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: middle of the pack in nearly every defensive statistic, whether
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: it's basic or advanced, except they are last in rushing
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: yards for play allowed. Atlanta's defense isn't all that special either.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: No, but they get no pressure. I mean they have a.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Pass rush and they're not they're.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Safeties, we'll give them that. They've really not.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Very good and like neither are very good in red
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown percentage allowed. They're pretty low in the in
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Atlanta's just much much better offensively, top ten
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: in several categories where Seattle is middle of the pack.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: So at the end of my research, I was like, Okay,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: I think I lean Atlanta two and a half.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: I just can't shake that they let everyone stay in
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the game, Like even the Panthers were in it until
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: they got in their own way and they panthered, you
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Like that the Falcons. Every game
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: they play seems to barely go in their direction.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked about coming to that game. Why we
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: like the Panthers is they can't help but at playing
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: close games they have. Yeah, they come into the game.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Last week they had three wins, one by one point,
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: the second by two points, and then the last one
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: was an overtime, fluky six point walk off win against
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: the Bucks. So I'm with you, like, there's a reason
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: to be hesitant about this one. There's a reason this
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: number is under three. But I'd just take it across
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: that key number. That's why I'm and I'm just like you,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: That's why I end up taking a lane here where
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, not a game. I'm maybe I'll love
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: it more come Thursday, once I look into it more
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: about Raiseter City. Right now, it's just a game, I bet,
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: simply just because I think the number is half a
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: point of value.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: We're just playing the number. Yes, what I'm excited about
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: for us right now, we have not wallowed in the
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: idea that road favorites rent and unprecedented nine and ero,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and that that normally creators our confidence because we like
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: to play against road favorites we're just going through it.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: We're going through our numbers, we're going through our process,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: we're going through the research. I feel no jitters right now.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: I like it because I think it's going to give
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: us an extra point on almost every home dog we
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: like this week. Honestly like that's the books are happy
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: to overreact to it because they know Joe Public the
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: sucker they are. They are fat, their pockets are fat
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: right now. They're happy to come in once again and
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: do a bunch of road favorite parlays, teasers, straight up
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: whatever they can get on these lines. So historically this
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: should be a good week for us. We should be
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: getting to free points on different home dolls this week.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: I think people are going to see this week there's
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: a couple that really jump out that live up to this.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: I want you to remember that we cannot lose focus.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: That home dogs are still going to be a side
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: we tend to like. And I just want to reiterate
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: flowers for you, Simon Hunter. Sunday morning, we're putting our
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: picks in. What did you say, chalk is due? This
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: feels like a chalky week. Thank god we did that,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Otherwise we could have been staring at an zero to
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: five week Houston at green Bay. Green Bay is a
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: three point favorite. So I think on Sunday Night you
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: like the Texans, and I persuaded you that two and
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: a half the Packers were the play, and now that
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: it's a three and I've done a little more research,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I think I lean Texans. To me, this is another
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: sort of number play two and a half. I probably
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: like the Packers at three. Maybe I'm neutral, maybe lean
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Texans at that number, But to me, Joe Mixon makes
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: a huge difference for this Texans team and changes the
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: calculus I think in a lot of the home roads
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: splits that we see from CJ. Stroud.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a tough one though, Like we said
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Sunday night, I can see why people are split on
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: this one. I actually have this at one and a
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: half green Bay, so I actually do have a lot
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: of respect for this team model wise in Houston, and
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: apparently I think they have a good number as well.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you. As soon as I went to three,
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: I took a couple bites of that three on Houston
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: plus three. It's just that to me was good value.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: A couple of books an hour down to two and
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: a half on Houston. That feels right like, if they
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: want to get a decent amount of action on Green Bay,
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: they'll keep it there. They'll bump it back up to three.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: Professionals will come back in. That's how they'll get a
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: nice even split probably on this number here or so early. Though,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: I still like Houston, especially if we can get three
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: and a half in contest. If this does get bet up,
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: we are getting a three and a half number with
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: CJ here. I like that number, like, that's a really
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: good number in this spot where two equally matched teams,
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: and we talked to that home field just isn't what
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: it used to be. Like you do lose half a
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: point to a point that back in the day used
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: to just be a straight minus three across the board.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Now it's just not the way it is anymore. So
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: I like Houston. Will this end up being one of
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: our five? I think Chad just said it's all ad
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: dictated about what the number is gonna be, especially in
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: the contest, so you can still get the threes out there,
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: I'd grab that now. I can just see this coming
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: down to two and a half for the rest of
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: the week.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: If we had Green Bay two and a half. Would
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: you put that in the contest? Oh?
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Man, it depends what else we have in there, just
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: because like it's hard if I if I'm heavily bet
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: on Houston, I couldn't do it because then it's just
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: gonna be like an awful experience trying to root against
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: my own and bet you know what I mean.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: No, I get it, I yet. And that also plays
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: into it when we make some of these picks, like oh,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: that's we've made. We really don't want to be on
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: opposite sides when all of a sudden we're in the contest.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: All right, you just mentioned home dogs. It's the theme
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: of the week. We haven't had many home dogs to
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: talk about yet, mostly home favorites. Now we got Cincinnati
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: a Cleveland. Cleveland's a five and a half point home dog.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: I want to say, like we throw out any home
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: division dog stats here. Evan had this great stat about
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. JaMarcus Russell lost. He was negative sixty five
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: point eight total EPA on dropbacks in weeks one through
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: six in two thousand and nine, since at least two
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: thousand before. It was the record low since at least
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: two thousand before. Deshaun Watson, who is negative sixty six
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: point two this season, seeing his believing here. Deshaun Watson
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen is just not coming back. And we
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: said it last week, we can say it again this week.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: He is a bad quarterback who either doesn't have the
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: arm to throw the throws, to make the throws that
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: he wants to make, or that the Browns coaches want
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: to call, doesn't have the confidence. And we saw it
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: last week, like the Eagles got any pressure, his eyes
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: were down and he was going. It's just such a
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: marked difference. You watch a guy even like Josh Allen
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: last night, Joe Burrow on Sunday Night, it's just like
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: these guys they have such pocket presence and pocket awareness
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: that Deshaun Watson does not have right now. Super hard
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: to bet on the Browns at five and a half,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: even though in my notes I wrote, is this number
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: too big right now? Is it too tempting to back
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: a road public fave? Like I don't think we want
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: to do that, So it's really the Browns are nothing here.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: Honestly, this is almost my simon says bet, but I
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: do think we'll be able to get a six, So
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do it yet. This might have been
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: our big balls, bet Chat, I'm not gonna let us
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: off the hook that easy. But you have to take
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Cleveland this spot. I know this is this is such
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: a good number. Cincinnati fucking sucks, Like they are so
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: lucky that they won that Giants game. They got outplayed
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: by the Giants and almost every way they had a
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: fluky Joe Burrow ran the ball forty yards touchdown and
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: they did nothing until the final two minutes of that game.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: Like they're just a bad team in Cincinnati. And the
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: biggest problem right now with Watson and this Cleveland team
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: is Filds on the ball too long and he just
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: takes really bad sacks. Yeah, I don't know how big
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: of a problem it's gonna be against Cincinnati team that
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: has one really good pass rusher and that's about it.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Like there's ways they can counter this Cincinnati team. And defensively, actually,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: like this matchup for Cleveland's defense against this Bengals team,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: A lot of what Jim Schwartz wants to do defensively
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: is gonna give Joe Burrow a problem. So, yeah, this
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: is a gross one, but this is probably gonna end
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: up as one of our five. Especially if this gets
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: up to six six and a half in our contest.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: It's like there's gonna be too much movement on this
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: line not to take it, and especially where no one's left. Right,
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: the boat is totally empty. On Brown's betters, there is
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: no one left. So I haven't been to AC yet.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: I'll probably get down there tonight or tomorrow. I already
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: can guarantee when I talk to the book makers, this
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: is gonna be the number one bet team. Te is
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: money line, all of it, the Cincinnati team. Everyone is
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: just going to be all in on them after that
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: big Sunday night win.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Eighty one percent are the tickets already on. That's Cincinnati
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: with the money. It's early in the week, so you're
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: not seeing a ton of wise guy money yet to
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: really have that be a factor. But I knew when
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: I saw this, and I was going through it yesterday
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: sitting in the freaking Detroit airport with my connection that.
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: Was before though you agree, right, it should be like I.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Agree like the number, like well, it's like the it's
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: the perfect example of what you just said, which is
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: we're going to get a point of value on all
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: these home dogs because the public won so emphatically last
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: week and Cincinnati is one of those teams, right, like
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati beating up on the Giants. They were a massive
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: public favorite. And even though they looked terrible, even though
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: the only play they made was Joe Burrow running and
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: then Joe Burry to Josebash Yoshivas, at the.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: End of the day, that pass incredible.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: That pass was sick, right, but it's a great example
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: of Joe Burrow Wouldborough can do and Deshaun Watson can't
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: get out of the pocket and still be aware of
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: what's happening downfield. I agree with you. The number is
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: just too big. I hate that we're gonna want to
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: do it. It's going to be a late entry because
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: we want this number to get as big as possible,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: and Sunday morning, it's just going to go up, is
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: the thing that's that's really the challenge. We got to
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: wait and wait and wait. But Jesus Christ, just to
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: just to put a finer point on it, that Browns
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: rush is still top five. And we saw how badly
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: that offensive line for the Bengals performed against the Giants.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Pass rush that was missing Thibodeaux like there's there's some
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: issues here, so yeah, we're there. We're there. So I mean,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: only one thing can make me comfortable betting on the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. That's right, it is my Tommy John underwear.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: I mentioned at the top of the show that we
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: are coming to you live from our Tommy j On
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: home studios. Today. My Tommy John home studio is a
• 35:03
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  Speaker 1: be better. You can be so much better. You can
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  Speaker 1: bet on the Cleveland Browns. If you love Simon and I,
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  Speaker 1: twenty five percent off your first order right now at
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  Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Save twenty five percent
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  Speaker 1: at Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All right, Eagles
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: visiting the Giants. This line open to three and a half.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: It's now down to three. So someone's been betting on
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: the Giants here. You know. Somehow the Giants offered an
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: inspiring performance and a devastating, winnable loss to the Bengals
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: at home. They never felt like they were out of
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: it until that throw to Josevash. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: wholly uninspiring in a losable win to one of the
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: worst quarterbacks in the league, a win that was so
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: bad the coach left the field fighting with fans.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's you're speechless, I am, because again
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to hold it back because I almost went
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: off on Sunday night where it's like, you fucking beat
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: the Browns by four points, and then your bad mouth
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: fans who spent a lot of money to go watch
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: that dog shit performance, and then you bring your kids
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: to the press conference, Like if I was the owner,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: I would have fired him right then and there you
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: bringing your kids to a press conference when you beat
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: the Browns by four What other team in the NFL
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: does that? Like it's a joke that you will never
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: catch another coach who barely beats a team that brings
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: us kids press conference when they're gonna ask you serious
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: questions and your deflection is it's all fun, Like how
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: much fun we're having When my kids ever I just
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: I hated Tierna company the year. Dude. Now I'm just like,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: I want us to lose. Guy, I want to be fired.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: I just can't stand this guy running this team. It's
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: just Lane Johnson said it best. The offense is constipated
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: like something's wrong where you know. You watch the Lions.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: The Lions, they they dink and dunk their way down
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the field and then a couple big plays here and
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: there that are just so impressive. That's what the Eagles
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: should be. Instead, the Eagles are three and out, six
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: and out, five and out, six and out, one big
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: play to a J. Brown for a touchdown, three and out,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: three and out, one big play to Vante Smith for
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: a touchdown, and that's how they won that game, like
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: two fluky big plays. Chad so wanted to fade these
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: guys really hard. Unfortunately, the model has us at three.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: So it's like, shit, if this gets a two and
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: a half, now, I'm gonna have to bet the Eagles
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: because that's where the value is going to be. So
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: if you grabbed the three and a half now and
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: the Giants, I honestly feel shockingly I feel more comfortable
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: taking that right now. But if this gets down to
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: two and a half. I'll probably end up on the
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: Eagles in this spot. But yeah, this this Eagles team
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: has some major problems, and I don't know this is
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: this feels like a nice time for the Giants team
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: to catch them. But the fear here right now is,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: you know, if this turns into a back and forth shootout,
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: they don't have the guns right now with Daniel Jones
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: on this Giants team. So maybe we'll have better clearance
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: once we know Neighbors is back. That whole thing, too,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: is bizarre. I don't know if you're right about the
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: neighbors thing. He apparently went to like a Travis Scott
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: concert on Wednesday or Friday last week and then didn't
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: play in the game because he still has got concussion issues.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: I feel like glad noises and flashing lights at a
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: rap concert is not great for concussions. So that's a
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: whole nother bizarre scenario going on to New York right now.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Not great for concussions. Not great when you like to
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: be asleep by nine o'clock like me. What's interesting about
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: the Sirianni thing? And I was in the uber yesterday
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: on the way to the airport, and the driver had
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: Dan Patrick on and he had Ross Tucker on, who
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: we've had on the show, and Ross Tucker's a Philly guy,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: and Tucker was like, I like, he's like my buddies
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: would react the same way everyone in Philly would react
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: the same way that Nick Sirianni is. And he also
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: said that he heard guys like Brandon Graham were telling
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Sirianni to be more vocal and to be more like
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: he was in twenty twenty two and to let his
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: sort of emotions out a little bit. So he might
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: have gotten some encouragement from the players to act like that.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: No, that's smart. Listen to the players.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Ah A Detroit at Minnesota. This one's moving, brother moving.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: From the vikings minus one to minus two to minus
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: two and a half, Oh my god, listen. I've been like, instinctively,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: i want to be on the on the Lions here,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: and I'm looking for reasons to sell the vikings. It
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: might just be we're getting to the number right, like
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: teams that are covering by five points per game historically
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: in the games going forward forty five percent against the spread,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: so that is the vikings. Obviously, we have fears with
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: the Lions because of Aden Hutchinson. But there's to me,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: that's the only reason this line is moving, and all
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: of a sudden it's moved to point and a half.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: We talked about this on Sunday night. Aden Hutchinson, brilliant
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: DPOY candidate, probably would have won it. Is that a
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: point and a half? Like JJ Watt is at his
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: most fierce, was one point and that's a lot Miles
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Garrett one point last year. Aden Hutchinson a point and
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: a half? Is that why this line is moving?
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair too, where like I only moved to
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: half a point, but I'm really really in tough moving
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: points where it's got to be the quarterback for me
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: to really start moving in a lot. And we talked
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: about though it's the biggest injury in the NFL this season,
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: no question about it. Like he's taking them from being
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: no doubt top two, top three team in this league
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: to now, you know, we got real questions about their defense,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: Like that was a big thing for them where they
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: don't really have anyone else that can even do close
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: to what he does. And he was such a game
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: wrecker for them that I feel like every time they
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: needed a big sack or a big takeaway. He was
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: in on it like he was either rushing the QB
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: to get any reception or he's taking the QB down.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: It was just such a brutal loss for this Lion's team,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: So that's fair that to me, that could be why
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: the Lions moved too much, or it's also the professionals
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: love this Vikings team and you know, for them to
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: come in so heavy earlier in the week like this,
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: I'm honestly shocked by it because you just said it, like, yeah,
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: me and you were about to be the guys that
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: we have to take. We already like the Lions, but
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: this is even more so. It's like, all right, I
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: guess we're gonna join the public once again and take
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: a dog here. That's you know, to me, move too much,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: especially two and a half such a key number. So
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: I need more time on this one because it feels
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: like this is just like last week with Dallas. It
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: feels like it's too easy with this Lions team, like
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: this is a really good matchup for what this Lion's
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: team wants to do offensively. Maybe the whole view of
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: it is we're still once again not give enough credit
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: to Sam Darnold and this Vikings offense and that they
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: won't be just blown out and rolled over, that they'll
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: keep this competitive and they'll somehow steal this game to
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: the end. But I just don't see it. I'm really
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: trying to see it, and I just can't. And my
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: model has this at one. So I have the Vikings
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: favor by one. I give them respect. They should be
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: home favorites, right, they deserve that much. Now they're up
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: to two and a half, Like in what world? It's
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: just really it's way too much movement. So I'm with you.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: This one is a very tempting to take It's.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Way too much for alliance team that is, it is
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: so so good. Like this offensive team is amazing. What
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: they are doing is exactly what we thought they were
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: going to do. It's why we handicapped him the way
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: we did with the Cowboys, Like they are a physical
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: team that knows exactly who they are. Jared Goff is
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: the perfect quarterback for this system. They are calling the
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: right place. They've gotten through the bumps in the road
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: of the early season. This Hutchinson news is bad for
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: the defense, but the offense is still dominant. Obviously Flores
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: is a great matchup. We'll see what happens, but certainly
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: going to be an interesting game. We're probably going to
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: end up being on Detroit if the number stays where
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: it is or or keeps going. We're getting breaking news.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: We'll get to the Bills game in a second, but
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: according to Tito. According to Ian Rappaport from NFL Network,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills are acquiring Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: So what does that do to our bet? We'll have
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: to talk about that as things shake out, for sure.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: Last stats on the Lions and the Vikings. Home division
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: faves forty five percent against the spread since twenty fifteen.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Short home division faves three points, so less forty five
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: percent the last twenty years thirty three forty six against
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: the spread forty one percent since twenty twenty Tennessee Buffalo
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: great timing, Tito producer, Tito freaking produce it. Uh, Look,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: this was going to be chalky and ugly. I don't
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: hate the Bills here like these are the games that
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen just tends to dominate.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Alert here with Josh Allen, He's He's a football player
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: through every years work, and there we got drugs.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: Can excuse me?
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: Touchdown? How many quarterbacks of your turtle anyone? Goodness, there's
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: no beer, no way. The demands to do something about
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: this album regeous.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Man, big, louder and louder.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: To me, the biggest part of this move for them
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: is it blocks Kansas City from getting Amari Cooper. Like
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: that's to me is why the Bills honestly made this move.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: It's like next level chess, seven level chess.
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: It helps their team, and it's blocking a team that
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: I thought it was a slam dunk. The Chiefs would
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: go get Amari Cooper like he fits exactly what they
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: want to do a possession receiver. And you know, I've
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: seen a couple of vance stats that Amari Cooper is
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: not as good as we perceive. He actually has a
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: ton of drops this year. Not the same receiver he's
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: been in the past, But I still feel like he
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: can win one to one matchups and he still is
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: such a vet that he knew it's how to get
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: open and make incredible catches when he does catch the ball.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: It's like, I love this for the Bills, that he's
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: exactly what this team needed a veteran presence, you know,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: as fun as it was having these young receivers and
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen can use anyone he wants. You still want
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: a guy that you know on third down? He knows. Okay,
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: all my guys are covered. I know exactly where my one.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: My one guy is going to be a Mark Cooper,
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: even if he's covered a fifty to fifty ball. I'm
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: still gonna give him Mark Cooper that chance, Like you don't.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: You didn't really have that with all these young receivers
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: in Buffalo, so love to move for them. I honestly
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: wanted to be on Tennessee. Why is this not ten?
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: Like to me the number, that's what That's what I mean. Yeah,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: So I have this number right where it is. I
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: have it at eight and a half. So motto doesn't
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: think there's any crazy value here. I honestly, when I
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: have a push like this, especially when it's this big,
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: I tend to lean towards the dogs. I techically want
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: to take Tennessee here. Yeah right, I'm not putting a
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: dollar on Will Levis on the road, especially against this
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: Bills team that you just said it like they have
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: not they haven't rolled or blown anyone out in a while,
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: because they've had really tough games these last couple of weeks.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: They've played some really good teams. This should be a
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: cake walk for them, Like they're just such a better team.
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: You know, maybe Tennessee's defense gives then a little bit
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: of problems because they do have a good front. But man,
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: I just love this matchup for this Bills team coming
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: back home, and you know, I'll check the weather report,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: but we have a big cold front coming through here
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: up in the Northeast, maybe some snow, which would be
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: even more of a reason to love this Bills team.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: We've just seen Josh Allen is just really great playing
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: in that type of weather at home. So yeah, not
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: a bet and rushing to make right now. I can't
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: see this going up that much more, honestly. I just
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: the way the NFL has been this season, right, Yeah,
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: we talked about you just don't really see huge dogs
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: like we used to. It just it rarely keeps going up,
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: usually comes back down like we saw last year with Cleveland.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: Right Cleveland got to nine and a half, I thought
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: to myself, great, I'll be able to get a ten
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: for sure by kickoff. I think it was seven and
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: a half by kickoff. So this this is tough where
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: if you do want to bet the Bills, I think
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: you can just roll the dice and wait, maybe it
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: does come back down across that number.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Eight Carolina Washington. Washington's is seven a half point favorite.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: We'll be on the Panthers pass.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately we have to nothing.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Lef to say. No.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: My only thing I'll say is why not put Bryce
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: Young in? At this point you're one in five. Let
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: the kid play it out. Just see if you can
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: see anything worth even building up on. Because this is it.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: You're gonna lose out. You know you're probably gonna take
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: a quarterback at the top of the draft. You might
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: as well try to showcase a little bit or Bryce
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: Young and then maybe you can trade them for a
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: bag of peanuts at the end of the season. But
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: to keep starting Andy Dalton is just stupid at this point.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: It turns out we got like one dead cat bounce
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: out of Andy Dalton and everything else we see. We
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: saw that game. He's been a mirage.
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that cat's dead.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: That cat has bounced down. It's now bounced into the ground.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: It's never coming back up. Las Vegas Raiders at Los
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Angeles Rams Rams six and a half point favorites. You
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: talked about it on Sunday night. You're thinking Cooper Cup
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: might come back. The word is he should be back
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: for week seven. I haven't seen if that's official yet,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: but you were saying grabbed the five and a half.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: It was sort of a mini Simon Says esque moment
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: because you felt this number would go to six and
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: a half. That's exactly what.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: Happened, yep. And now unfortunately have to play the other side.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: We're supposed to take the Raiders now that it has
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: crossed that key number of six to six and a half.
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: So I'll have more for this game come Thursday. When
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: Chad you said once, I do know what injury reports are,
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: and I can get a better number on this one
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: right now, because right now I have it right at six.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: So it's like I thought that number would go up
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: once once we got news about who was going to
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: play in this game. It has gone up. Am I
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: rushing to bet the Raiders right now? And I don't
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: even who they's st any quarterback is No, I am
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: not in any way, So another game will happy just
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: to wait and see if this line keeps growing up.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Can I say that?
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: No, Cleveland just moved to six. So that's why I
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: didn't think it. Simon says, fucking, hey, dude, I might
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: have to rush and go take that six whilet stole up.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Wait, but you're going to take the six on Cleveland
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: is a six point dog. It's a six point dog.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: So you should be glad it was it five and
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: I know I'm saying I'm glad. That's why I didn't
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: make it. Simon says, half, I was like, this number
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: should go up to six. There it is. It's at six.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: Now you can go grab that if you want the Browns,
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: which I do.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Go get the Browns plus six. You know what's interesting
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: on the Raiders. One thing I want to say quickly
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: is I like when I was doing the research yesterday,
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not looking to bet on the Raiders right now,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: but I do think that there's a little bit of
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: a misleading attitude about the Raiders because of what happened
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: with the Steelers. They were in that game, like late
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: in the first half, they had just picked off Justin Fields.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: A roughing penalty kept the drive alive. The Steelers scored
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. Then Boswell kicked a sixty five year old
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: field goal. Yeah, they were down twenty two to seven.
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: They had a touchdown called back for a penalty. The
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: next play, Abdullah fumbles at the one yard line. I'm
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: glad we didn't bet them, but the score, like was
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: much worse than the box score indicates. So that's why
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: I like six and a half doesn't doesn't scare me
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: as much.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: And on the flip side, we've talked at Naismen about
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: how bad this Rams team is altogether and how many
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: injuries they've had and yep, Cooper cups coming back, that
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: doesn't fix that. Their offensive line has just been terrible
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: and horribly banged up. And you know that's still the
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: strength of this Raiders team, right Their front four is
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: what keeps them in those games. So yeah, just something
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: to keep an eye on that matchup.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Game of the week, Game of the first half of
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: the year, Kansas City at San Francisco. The fundamental questions
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: right now, San Francisco is a one point favorite, down
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: from one and a half. Was that one went up
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: to one and a half, now back down to one.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: What has changed since the Super Bowl last year? That
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: is the fundamental questions. Like last season, the Niners statistically
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: more impressive in every offensive category, but the Chiefs much
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: more impressive and amongst league leaders in advanced defensive metrics.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Their third in pass rush, eighth in rush d tenth
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: in red zone touchdown percentage. The Niners, by the way,
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: we have talked about all of their issues without Christian
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: McCaffrey in the red zone. So this past week against
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks Thursday night, they were three for five for
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: touchdowns in the red zone. One of their three field
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: goals was from the twenty three, so let's count that
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: as three for six. So still not like thriving in
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: the red zone where the Chiefs will thrive in the
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: red zone defensively. And then we got Mahomes as a
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: dog three or last twenty five eight and one against
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: the spread. So tell me what has changed since the
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl to make us want to take the Niners.
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: Here, Simon says, go grab that plus one and a
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: half on that Chiefs team right now. A couple of
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: books out there, still the plus one and a half.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: You gotta go grab it like this. Chad just gave
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: you the stat about Mahomes the dog. It's not even that.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: What team do you have more confidence in, even more
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: so this year than the other team in the fourth quarter.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: It's got to be the Chiefs. Like, what team has
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: won a bunch of games year in the fourth quarter
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: the other team has melted in the second half. They
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: tried to blow that Seahawks game, and they really did,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: like letting that kick return everything. They're just we talked
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: something's missing, something's wrong with this forty nine ers team
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: right now, and I think we both nailed talking about
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: the McCaffrey thing. That to me is the difference there.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Instead of getting seven, they keep putting up three and
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: and it's only even a tougher against this Chiefs defense,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: who is just brutal to try to score on once
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: you get in the red zone. They're just spags, knows
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: exactly what to do once the field gets really small
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: and tight. So I love this matchup for this Chiefs team.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: And you know the fact that I can get them
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: a plus one and a half, I'm gonna take it
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: right now because I could easily see this flipping to
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: being them minus one by kickoff. It's just professionals public.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: How do they not all come in on this Chiefs
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: team in this spot, they just all together been the
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: most complete team this season. Now you throw each other
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: coming off a bye week, we know, and your week
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: coming off a bye week. It's just the perfect storm.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: I'm so glad you to make the exact decision. Let
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: me steal this one, Simon says. When Simon, we do.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: Like I was thinking about it, I had another one.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: I was waiting for it. You were aligning up there
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: to say it right before you pass it to me,
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: and I.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: Was like, I was, I was, I'm gracious like that
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: West Coast time. I'm not as sharp as I know.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: I know what you're waiting for.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: You do, don't you? Sunday Night Folk, New York Jets
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh Steelers. Look, this is breaking news avas of
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: the last hour ninety minutes or so. Mike Tomlin says,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson may start coincidentally or not over the last
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: say twelve hours, could be because there was leaks about
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: DeVante Adams. But this line has moved from Steelers minus
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: one and a half to Steelers plus one and a
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: half change that truly changes the calculus on this game,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: because if you ever want to bet Mike Tomlin. It's
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is a home dog, especially as a short
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: home dog. Don't I don't know what to do here.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: We all talk too much. Sharp dues can just see
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway,
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: They just watching, you know what I mean? Yeah? I
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: like the Jets, especially if it's Russell Wilson. You go,
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: when you dive into numbers on this Pittsburgh team and
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: now it sounds crazy me justin fields is the reason
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: this team is four and two, and I think the
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: line movement reflects that, Like Devontad Adams doesn't move the
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: line three points. I tell you that much. A guy
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: who hasn't played in weeks at his age, you know,
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: he's how many snaps is he gonna be playing for
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: this team? Right? They're gonna slowly revamp him into this offense.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: So to me, once it was known that Russell Wilson's
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: gonna take first team reps in practice all week, that's
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: what this is really moved. The movement to me, is
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: based off of So I like this for the Jets. Dude,
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: Now you're going from having one of the best rushing
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks in all football. I mean, the guy ran for
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: what two touchdowns last week? Like, yeah, anytime the pocket
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: breaks down, he's incredible at getting out of it. Russell
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: Wilson has been a good rushing quarterback in like five years.
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: Like this guy is old and slow, his arm is
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: not what he used to be. And they have one
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: good receiver in pickings Like okay, now we put sauce
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: on him to shadow him. Who's Russell Wilson turning two now?
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Is like, I do not Tomon rarely makes really bad moves.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: This is a really bad move to me. Like he's
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: too loyal to the veterans and the ogs in this
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: league where you know, I get it. He gave the
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: man his word in the middle of summer. That's why.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: That's what it feels like to me too, Like it's
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: just I get it, dude. Tomlin's old school is a
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: man of honor. I don't think a lot about the
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: things that I say, to be honest with you, but
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: you're four and two, and your strength right now is
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: the fact that you have a running quarterback behind a
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: terrible offensive line. And I just do not understand this move,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: especially you just saw Josh Allen rip up this Jets defense.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: Anytime you want to run the ball like they just
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: they don't have the guys on the outside to keep
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: up with running quarterbacks. I don't I just do not
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: get this this at all. So I'm taking the Jets now,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: especially it's under two. I know it's a little chalk
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: and I'm with Chat. It's like, I kind of want
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: to be on Pittsburgh. So I hope, my hope is
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: we get the same thing with the Colts last week,
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: where this number gets up to two and a half
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: and then they pull the rug. It was just a
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: diversion the whole week, and Fields is the starter. It
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: was never going to be Russell Wilson. They just wanted
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: a team doctor prepare for both quarterbacks, and then I'll
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: put a larger bet on Pittsburgh cacause I do want
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: to be on Pittsburgh here, especially as a home dog.
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: But at this number I won one and a half,
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Jet, especially if it's gonna be
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: Russell Wilson at QB.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: Simon. It is time for the executive decision.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: There we go.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is playing at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite. This was my first
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: game that I eyeballed on Sunday night. It was Bucks
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: four and a half. The pros hit it immediately, it's
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: now three and a half. It might have been because
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: I was saying how much I liked it at four
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: and a half. And the reason I like this is
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: because of what the Bucks can do against the run
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: with Videvea in the middle, and what Baker can do
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: against a really bad Ravens pasty. Like we're going to
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: talk about, the Ravens rush D is borderline his I
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: mean rush offenses borderline historic. And the rush D is great,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: top five in the league, there's no no doubt about it.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: But like this Bucks D is dreadful in coverage and
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: against the run, two things that Lamar and the Ravens
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: can take advantage of. I understand that, but this Ravens
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: defense has been so bad that it gives every single
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: quarterback a chance to stay in the game. And I
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: do think what we'll see with the Bucks that we
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: didn't see with the Commanders, who also had a chance
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: to backdoor cover on this. They've actually got better weapons.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Like Mike Evans is a top notch receiver. We saw
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: with Godwin how well he can play that middle of
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: the field is going to be open. Like I also
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: want to fade the road public favorite despite last weekend
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, I'm sorry, since
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: twenty thirteen, the road public favorite forty eight percent against
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: the spread, Home dogs of more than a field goal
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: off of a win of fourteen plus points sixty three
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread the past twenty years. It's just
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: a good spot for Baker. Give me the box exec decision.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: have your honor's texting your number executive decision? Yeah, I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: love that stat. And we talked there's gonna be a
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: bunch of home dogs this week. They're gonna get free
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: point of value. This is a game. We already lost
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: that point right the four and a half, it's gone,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: it's three and a half. Same with the Giants. Giants
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: for four to four and a half. Now it's down
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: to three and a half. Three. You know, clearly a
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: professionals took a stand on those games because you talk
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: about they're just too those numbers are too high for
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: those matchups against those teams. And you nailed it here
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: with your Tampa breakdown My only hesitation of people, don't
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: put your full union yet on this Tampa line. What's
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: the deal with Mike Evans? Well, I need to know
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: what's going like Evans, because that is a key to
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: me to what makes that offense just tick. There's there's
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: no one like hiving the NFL in the red zone
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: right now like he is. Him and Baker especially, they're
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: they're so good in the red zone together setting up
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: easy touchdowns. I think Baker is up to fifteen touchdowns.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: And earlier today I did that show Roundtable which given
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: listen to it, go check it out. It's in the
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: Action app and you know you can find it in
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: the Action Network on the whole different podcasts. Brad Anderson
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: had a great bet about Tampa being one of the
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: more undervalued teams right now. You can get them at
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: twenty two to one to be the one seed in
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: the NFC like this, if they win this game, they
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: pull off this upset, that immediately will drop down to
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: fifteen to one, sixteen to one, like, that's a huge
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: line mover this win right here. So that's the type
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: of thing where if you if you're hesitant, you don't
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: want to bet the money line here because Lamar is
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: this is another Evans said, I think he's up to
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: twenty three and one straight up against the NFC. I
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: totally understand the hesitation. I mean, me and Chad are
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: no doubt cann have this in the money line round robin,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: but matchup wise, he nailed it with the V to
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: day take though, like he's gonna he's gonna shut down
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: what's been the motor of this team right now, which
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: is Derrick Henry, Like everything has really run through him.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: And yes, we've seen Lamar be great this season passing
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: the ball, honestly, Like I've been so impressed about how
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: well he's been passing the ball. But this feels like
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot for this team. And I know it
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: sounds stupid. Historically, he doesn't play as great in his
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: home state of Florida. Like I mean, Chad probably remember,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: but I always remember this because it was such a
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: crazy bed at the time. You know, he went down
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: to Miami is I think it was like, got an
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: eight point in Favorite on a Thursday night. He got
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: absolutely rolled by Miami. I think he lost by like
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: five or six. And it's just these type of snares
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: where it's like he's a big favorite. Everyone's blowing smoke.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: He heads down to Florida and his team gets rolled.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: It's it's happened before with this Lamar team. So the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: trends like it. We like the number. I'd grab it
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: right now, like Chad just said it, three and a half.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: But don't go too crazy because if Mike Emans is out,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: this easily will go back up to four to four
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: and a half. Like that's how much not just my model,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: but sportsbook model is that Evans is worth this spread,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: especially this team. So yeah, are our big reason is
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: we think there's an advantage on this Bucks team. Bell
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: attack the secondary of Baltimore. I mean, the DC is
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: this three two year old, and I think we all
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: can clearly say he's above his head at this point.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: Like their defense, the teams can move the ball against them.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: Like you said Washington last week, that shouldn't have been close.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: They should have dominated that game and they couldn't put
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: them away like they kept letting Washington stay in it
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: just because they can't stop the pass. Their secondary just
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: isn't good enough right now. So Chad nailed. I like
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: this matchup. We like the plus three and a half
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: with Tampa.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: All right, so at the end of it, we got
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: some games that we think will be able to carry over.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: We have one more game, right, yeah, we do.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: We have one more game on Monday night Atlanta. I'm
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: sorry the Chargers at Arizona. Arizona is a two and
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: a half point dog.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: You know where we're supposed to go?
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: I don't want to. You have to, though, I don't
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: want to, And so it's funny. I actually didn't even
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: put a ton of notes into the script for this
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: one because it just felt weird to say, are we
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: gonna get the Cardinals here?
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: I know, I hate it. We have to, we have
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: to take the Cardinals at this number. It's just why
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: is this not a pick?
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: You?
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: Are the Chargers really minus two and a half better
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: than this Arizona team, especially on the road. I don't know.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: It just feels like it's too much love and respect
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: to a horrorball team that I guess Arizona is a
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: bad team, because I'm saying all they've done this year
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: is be bad teams, and when they play good teams,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: they kind of falter. And I feel like the same here.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: I feels like we're getting a good number on Arizona
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: team that they're outdoors in the l then every little
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: thing that could have gone wrong went wrong for them, right,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: it just felt like everything went wrong for them, and
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: now we're getting a free two points of value on Arizona.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: I hate it too, and that makes up that should
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: make us want to even take even more. And we
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: both hate it, but we know this is the right
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: number in the right spot to take us Arizona team.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: So I'm looking forward to hearing the sharp calls. I
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: know some professionals who very early came in heavy on
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: this Chargers team because they like the matchup of their
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: offensive front of the Chargers versus these defensive front of Arizona.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: If they this is a matter of where you can
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: bullyball them, totally get it. But at what point does
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: that number move too much so that that, to me
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: is where not tell you about it right now? I
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: think you can another number. You can be patient and
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: maybe we'll get a three in the next day, day
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: or two.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: Atlanta two and a half. We talked about green Bay
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: two and a half. We talked about obviously Cleveland now
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: at plus six Detroits and a half.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: No, yeah, Evan just gave us an update. Oh my god,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: I know we're gonna have to take it. It's brutal.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be six and a half in the contest now,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: You could get up to seven seven and a half.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: I mean this is steaming up right now.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Detroit two and a half, Las Vegas six and a half, case,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: one and a half, Jets, one and a half bucks,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: three and a half cards plus two and a half.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: Like Jesus, I'm looking at this, I'm like, oh my god,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: this just has the makings of an exhausting, excruciating weekend
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: filled with tracking illegal procedures by Paris Johnson. As a reminder,
• 1:06:37
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• 1:07:21
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  Speaker 1: Help us available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: hundred Gambler