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Fault On No Fault | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: Political Capital Daily. Good morning, happy Thursday to you as
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: we work our way through the week past the halfway
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: point in the campaign, chugging along, uh... Into the latter half,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I guess. I'm not really sure this campaign has been
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  Speaker 1: so odd. It's hard to tell where we are, where
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  Speaker 1: the momentum is, what's happening, where we're on in the calendar. Luckily,
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  Speaker 1: we have Allie Blades, longtime conservative strategist, member of Political
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  Speaker 1: Capital Prime on the pod this morning. Allie, thanks for
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  Speaker 1: being part of this. Good morning. So there's lots going
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  Speaker 1: on today, and we'll just quickly get this out of
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  Speaker 1: the way if people are looking at their calendars and
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  Speaker 1: what's happening. Do have an announcement from Lauren Dirksen again
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  Speaker 1: on policy at around 11 a.m. in Surrey. There was
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  Speaker 1: announcements from the NDP and the Conservatives in Surrey yesterday
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  Speaker 1: as well. Battleground Surrey, always important given the number of
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  Speaker 1: ridings and the number of swing ridings there. The Greens
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  Speaker 1: leader Emily Lowen has a press conference with her candidate
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  Speaker 1: from Victoria, Swan Lake, who's the president of the Greater
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  Speaker 1: Victoria Teachers Association, Carolyn Howe. They have an education-related announcement
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  Speaker 1: on public education at noon. Once again on the NDP,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: don't know, won't say, but I'm assuming they're probably around
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  Speaker 1: 9 or 10 a.m. with something from David Eby. Usually
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  Speaker 1: seems to be the timing of this campaign. A lot
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  Speaker 1: of front-loaded early morning announcements, 9, 10, 11. Everybody gets
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  Speaker 1: their items out and begins the campaign day. I do
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  Speaker 1: want to talk to you, Ali, though. about an issue
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  Speaker 1: that's kind of rolled through the campaigns two days in
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  Speaker 1: a row now. That would be ICBC no-fault. And Conservative
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  Speaker 1: leader Lorne Dirksen basically kind of, in some ways, sort
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  Speaker 1: of getting called out by the NDP for a letter
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  Speaker 1: he wrote to the different legal groups promising to change
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  Speaker 1: the no-fault system to a hybrid system, and then saying
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  Speaker 1: at a press conference he hadn't made any promises, but
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  Speaker 1: the letter... pretty much being a promise, and the NDP
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  Speaker 1: jumping on that, David Eby saying that's not honest, Dirksen
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  Speaker 1: kind of giving a bit of an apology and saying
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  Speaker 1: this is what our plan is, and I noticed that
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  Speaker 1: went up on the Conservative website yesterday, the ICBC plan.
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  Speaker 1: How do you think that's landing right now, and what
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  Speaker 1: do you think of the back and forth between the campaigns?
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  Speaker 2: Well, this is prime politics in the middle of a
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  Speaker 2: campaign that the NDP are attacking the Conservatives by calling
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  Speaker 2: themselves sneaky by saying that these are backroom deals. But
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  Speaker 2: let's look at the facts here, where a letter was
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  Speaker 2: created and shared to a massive audience of trial lawyers
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  Speaker 2: and insurance. And I can barely send a text without
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  Speaker 2: it being a bigger deal and getting beyond just the
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  Speaker 2: one person. How do you think that a letter addressed
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  Speaker 2: to hundreds of people was meant to be a secret. Like,
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  Speaker 2: that's just, it's impossible. And so this wasn't a secret
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  Speaker 2: at all. This was a conversation with an industry association,
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  Speaker 2: but the timing of it is such that the NDP
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  Speaker 2: think that this is a secret deal where let's, it'll
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  Speaker 2: show up in the platform, guys, calm down. It'll show
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  Speaker 2: up at the debate on October 14th, most likely, when
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  Speaker 2: we get to have the platform to talk about it.
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  Speaker 2: This isn't a secret. This is just the conversations happening
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  Speaker 2: within an association.
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  Speaker 1: It feels like one of the rails this has maybe
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  Speaker 1: touched on is that although this election doesn't appear to
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  Speaker 1: really be about anything in general, and certainly not about
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump the way the NDP had hoped it would be,
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  Speaker 1: and also not about Carolyn Finlay, which the NDP had
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  Speaker 1: hoped it would be, it certainly is about affordability. And
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  Speaker 1: we've talked and other people have noted throughout the campaign,
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  Speaker 1: it's the top issue in the polls. And nobody likes
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  Speaker 1: auto insurance. Nobody likes seeing their rates rise. They're kind of,
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  Speaker 1: maybe don't even understand what no fault is, but they
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  Speaker 1: know their rates have been frozen for several years now.
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  Speaker 1: And I just wonder if this policy on auto insurance,
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  Speaker 1: as complex as it may be, and no fault is
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  Speaker 1: super complicated, collides with the sort of simple principle of
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  Speaker 1: the campaign of like people worried about cost. Don't do
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  Speaker 1: anything to make it more costly and less affordable to live.
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  Speaker 1: And I wonder if that is part of this kind
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  Speaker 1: of collision on this issue in the campaign.
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  Speaker 2: I like your word choice there with the collision aspect,
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  Speaker 2: but I, and I do think that that's why some
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  Speaker 2: of the conservative slogans and ideas are on no new
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  Speaker 2: taxes are resonating really well on the campaign trail. But
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  Speaker 2: that's also why I think the Conservatives have also introduced
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  Speaker 2: the hybrid system because you're right, this is an affordability election.
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  Speaker 2: But when people and families have been struggling for so long,
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  Speaker 2: we need to get to a solution that is compassionate
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  Speaker 2: and takes care of British Columbians still. And so I
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  Speaker 2: think that this hybrid system uh, idea is a good
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  Speaker 2: one because you get the balance of both. The other
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  Speaker 2: aspect that I think about, especially when I think about the,
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  Speaker 2: the no fault insurance specifically is that, um, if it
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  Speaker 2: means that just like healthcare, if it means that we
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  Speaker 2: can take care of people that have been, that their
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  Speaker 2: lives have dramatically changed, that is what we do as
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  Speaker 2: British Columbians. It's what we do as Canadians. Um, But
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  Speaker 2: it's a give and take on other things that we
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  Speaker 2: could potentially save on affordability.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a very complicated topic to be batted around
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  Speaker 1: in an election campaign where complex topics are smushed into
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  Speaker 1: very narrow windows of voter intention and attention. So I
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  Speaker 1: don't think it's the last we've heard about that, but
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  Speaker 1: certainly a dominant theme in the first couple of days
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  Speaker 1: of the last couple of days. of the campaign this week. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: we're going to take a quick break, and when we
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  Speaker 1: come back, we've got several other items I want to
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  Speaker 1: canvas with Ali right after this break. Well, Political Capital
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  Speaker 1: its ongoing support. Back to the show. Right, Ellie, I
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  Speaker 1: wanted to go back to this. It got lost in
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  Speaker 1: the shuffle a little bit in the last couple of days,
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  Speaker 1: but a part of the conservative platform, Plank, that came
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  Speaker 1: out was on Metro Vancouver, the only level of government,
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  Speaker 1: I think, that has had worse publicity than the Carrie
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  Speaker 1: Lynn Finlay administration of the conservatives in the last year.
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  Speaker 1: Metro Vancouver, a clown college... gong show of the CAO
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  Speaker 1: being forced out, problems internally, spending, overruns, per diems, just
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  Speaker 1: a mess. They've just been pummeled. And I saw the
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  Speaker 1: conservative platform basically coming out and saying that they're going
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  Speaker 1: to go at Metro Vancouver and cut the heck out
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  Speaker 1: of it. Anything that can be done by the private sector,
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  Speaker 1: anything that can be done by a couple of municipalities,
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  Speaker 1: two or three getting together and doing it, anything that
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  Speaker 1: can be done by another level of government, basically, removed
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  Speaker 1: from Metro Vancouver and kind of hollowing out of the
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  Speaker 1: organization which operates in the way that this was described
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  Speaker 1: by the Conservatives, live in large with your money and
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  Speaker 1: no oversight. If you've got to live, live large, but
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  Speaker 1: not if you're a level of government. How do you
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  Speaker 1: think that's going to resonate? We have this weird election
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  Speaker 1: alley with municipal overlap And Metro Vancouver is such an
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  Speaker 1: election issue on the municipal level as well. What do
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  Speaker 1: you think about this?
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  Speaker 2: Well, this is very interesting. Okay, so do you remember,
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  Speaker 2: I can't remember when it was, maybe a couple weeks ago,
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  Speaker 2: where it was a mayoral candidate in New Westminster, I
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  Speaker 2: think a mayoral candidate in Richmond, and they were all
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  Speaker 2: trying to recruit others in a campaign promise to stop
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  Speaker 2: the increase in spending at Metro Van. And it basically
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  Speaker 2: said things like, that if they received a municipal salary,
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  Speaker 2: that Metro Vancouver wouldn't top it up anymore and that
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  Speaker 2: it would reduce spending at Metro Vancouver. And then we're
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  Speaker 2: not talking about it, of course, because of the overlap
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  Speaker 2: with the provincial election now. And I thought that one
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  Speaker 2: was a really good position that these Metro Vancouver candidates
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  Speaker 2: were taking in that there is wasteful spending at Metro Vancouver.
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  Speaker 2: It's a massive problem. The NDP government haven't done anything
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  Speaker 2: about it. And here they are trying to fix it
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  Speaker 2: on the campaign trail. And then, bam, the provincial election happens.
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  Speaker 2: And then we don't really hear much about it until now,
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  Speaker 2: where we're saying pretty much the same thing, that if
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  Speaker 2: another level of government is doing it, that Metro Vancouver
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  Speaker 2: shouldn't do it. And that if potentially the private sector
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  Speaker 2: can do it, that Metro Van shouldn't do it. And so...
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  Speaker 2: This one is also very interesting to me, I think,
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  Speaker 2: because it impacts about four different ridings. Because those who
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  Speaker 2: are talking about it at the most are those impacted
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  Speaker 2: by the tax increase with the treatment plant on the
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  Speaker 2: North Shore as well.
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  Speaker 1: It is a hot topic. But that treatment plant, emblematic
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  Speaker 1: of Metro Vancouver's failures and inability to do the things
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  Speaker 1: that it is, the core things it's tasked with doing.
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  Speaker 1: And I wonder, Ali, if we think we will see
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  Speaker 1: anything from David Eby, who has talked repeatedly about intervening
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  Speaker 1: in Metro, but has never actually done it, and started
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  Speaker 1: talking about a review, but then called a snap election.
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  Speaker 1: And this is the only plan to deal with Metro
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  Speaker 1: that I see. I wonder if the NDP will be
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  Speaker 1: forced into coming up with something on the fly on
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  Speaker 1: Metro Vancouver. Do you think they'll just let it go?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think he said sometime this week that if elected,
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  Speaker 2: that he would do something about it. I said this before. Dude,
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  Speaker 2: you had the opportunity to do something about it. You
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: were the premier. So he's trying to fix a mess
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  Speaker 2: that he himself created by not doing anything or intervening.
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  Speaker 2: I thought I saw a collage or a compilation of
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  Speaker 2: him saying, well, if it gets bad, the province will intervene.
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  Speaker 2: The province will step in. Don't you worry. The province
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  Speaker 2: will help if it gets worse and worse. Well, it
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  Speaker 2: got worse. It was, it ballooned to the billions and
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  Speaker 2: he didn't do anything about it. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: It's a collage from global BC's Jordan Armstrong put together
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: five or six comments from David Eby saying he would
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  Speaker 1: do something over a period of a couple of years
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  Speaker 1: or at least a year, which is a, A montage
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  Speaker 1: that is quite amusing if you've ever seen it in
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  Speaker 1: a global story. Okay, one other topic I want to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: touch on here, Ali. We have talked about this in
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  Speaker 1: yesterday's show, but I want to get your thoughts on it.
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  Speaker 1: The latest poll from Main Street describing the Conservatives with
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  Speaker 1: a lead here of around 8 points. The Greens at
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  Speaker 1: around 11%. 1BC at 5, 6-ish. Centre BC at 1.
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  Speaker 1: I wonder what you think of the numbers. It continues
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  Speaker 1: to be this overwhelming disapproval of the snap election. I
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: wonder if we're going to continue to see that or
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: if this is a lag of, you know, this poll
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: was September 30th and October 1st, so there's a lag
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: of a week. Do you think we'll continue to see
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: the disapproval of the snap election showing up in these
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: polls in this way? And if so, what do you
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: think of these numbers? You're right.
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  Speaker 2: At the moment where this poll was in the field
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  Speaker 2: it was right when people were immediately upset that we
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: called a snap election in this province so there's a
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  Speaker 2: little bit of that i don't think it's going to
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  Speaker 2: change much though because the this hasn't been a very
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: uh intense election where we're seeing all of these like
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: great promises from the NDP that would then put them
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: back in that low 40 range. And because like, they've
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: just kind of been lame on the announcements. They're not
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: going to get that back. Like you've already upset people.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: You're not going to make it any better. I just
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: don't think it's going to get better for them right now.
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: What's interesting though is, is the, I was surprised by
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: the 1BC having 5.7 and Center only having 1.1. I
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: wonder if it's a little bit of more name recognition
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: for the 1BC versus Center. So I bet Eleanor Sturco,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: the leader of Center BC, is not feeling too hot
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: about that being in that 1% range.
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  Speaker 1: The aggregate numbers, and I mentioned this the other day,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: if you put There's a Polywave website that puts like
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: 49 polls from 16 pollsters in there from last year
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: and is aggregating them. The Conservatives around 42, the NDP
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: around 40, the Greens around 11, 1BC at maybe 3.64,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: and Centre BC at 2.5-ish. So slightly better in the aggregate,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: slightly worse for 1BC. But I mean, these are all
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: just moving numbers. And I guess at those levels, there
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: is the potential for one or Two ridings to have
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a strong candidate, Andrew Weaver and Oak Bay Gordon Head,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: that may influence things, but not a kind of provincial
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: presence for those parties. They're not part of the leaders debate,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: the televised leaders debate, which is happening next week on
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the 14th, I believe.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: But the Greens and the NDP and the Conservatives are,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: so they are interesting numbers. Just as we close out, Ali, anything,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: like when we look at this week, And I know
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Aileen Machel was on earlier in the week talking about
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the importance of a week like this as we head
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: into the Thanksgiving long weekend. Everyone's sitting down with family
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: and friends. People start talking politics. People start getting convinced
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: or convincing family members or talking it out or in
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: some case of the, you know, drunken family member perhaps
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: convincing people to vote the other way because they just
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: can't stand that guy. Why doesn't he just stop talking
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: about politics at the Thanksgiving table? But how important of
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a week do you think it is in the whole
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: sort of discourse of the election?
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: We get the double whammy, right? Because you have the
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: municipal campaign and you still have the provincial campaign. So
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: I think politics is going to be front and center
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: for a lot of those around the dinner table conversation.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: And I think it's going to be a lot of
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: what we've heard over the last year. Well, you know,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: things are more expensive. You know, maybe my grandson moved
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: to Alberta because life is too unaffordable here. At the
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: same time, I think that people are also kind of
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: thinking back to the last, even the last provincial election,
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: because we were about this at the same time in 2024,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: of comparing the Conservatives then and now. And I think
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: this time around, you can see a lot more stability.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: You can see a lot more of these bold ideas now.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: And I hope that's what people are talking about around
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: the dinner table. Yeah.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Well, there's a lot going on in politics, municipally, provincially, nationally, internationally.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: It's a wildly busy time. Thankfully, we've got a daily
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: show to walk us through it. And Allie, thank you
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: for being here this morning to chat with us about it.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: Thank you. All right, everybody.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Thank you for being here. We will be back tomorrow
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: with all the latest in BC politics on Political Capital.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Make sure you're subscribing. following our feeds, following me, videos
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: of me crying in the bathtub on my Instagram feed,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: getting ready for Political Capital Prime on Friday. Lots going on.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: We'll talk to you tomorrow.