Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 124 - 9/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 124 - 9/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 124 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Friday. The work week is over.
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The weekend is upon us, guys. Another big weekend on tap of
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college football and NFL betting.
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So very much looking forward to a big weekend here ahead, guys.
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And I also want to remind you we are doing our Sunday rhythm live
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stream. We call it the Sunday sweats,
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myself and James Santor every Sunday from 11:00 AM Eastern
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Time to noon. So I invite you to join us this
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Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time, stream live on Twitter or
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whatever you want to call it. I realized that I can only get
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my Twitter account to live stream if I pay for a premium
1:09
membership for Twitter. So Elon Musk, who I didn't want
1:12
to give any money to, I had to give him 11 bucks a month so
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that I could get the check mark and more importantly, be able to
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live stream these Sunday shows. So hope to see you guys there on
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Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time. We'll be going over the NFL
1:25
slate, looking at some rhythm edges, player props, game
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predictions. You can come with some
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questions. We'll talk about some late
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moves. Who knows, maybe it'll be a
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better 2 that I don't have on my card now that will be a late
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addition with some sharp action. So I hope to see you guys there.
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Sunday 11:00 AM Eastern Time stream live on Twitter now
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looking toward today guys, I got a 5 pack of sweats for you.
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We got Friday Night Lights in college football three games
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here today and I'm looking at some sharp contrarian
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opportunities to take advantage of so stay tuned for that 3 bets
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in college 2IN Major League Baseball.
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I don't want to quit MLB got a couple winners here in a row
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with the snakes two nights in a row.
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I got 2 bets for you tonight, looking at sharp line moves,
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couple favorites, laying very short chalk with some good sharp
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moves as well as some motivational edges.
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And then unfortunately, there's no biting today.
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I thought for sure we'd have a UFC slate this weekend, but
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they're actually off this weekend, so we're going to have
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to wait another week. But I do have the final NFL and
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college football card for you. What I'm holding in pocket, what
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I've already bet, what I've added.
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I'm going to give you my final list of best bets for Saturday
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college and Sunday NFL. So we'll talk about it all on
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today's episode of the All Systems Go Sports Betting pod
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#124 Powered by Rhythm. Now looking back toward
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yesterday, guys, the good, the bad and the ugly.
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Well, the good was South Alabama.
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South Alabama, the ultimate contrarian play, only getting
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30% of spread bets. That was the game where you walk
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into a bar and everyone's sweat nap state.
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And yet we took the points. There was South Alabama in terms
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of a conference dog as well as a dog who can score and I was just
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hoping for a cover. I did not expect a, what was it,
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48 to 14 win. So didn't have to worry about
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that one at all. That was one of those rare
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rocking chair hits where think of yourself or your grandfather
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in the rocking chair on the porch sipping a lemonade.
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That's how. That's how nice and easy and
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sweatless it was with South Alabama.
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Also, we got another winner there with the Diamondbacks.
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Remember, we identified the D backs with a sharp line move as
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well as a motivational edge where Milwaukee had just
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clinched a wild card spot. Milwaukee maybe was drunk or
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hungover from the previous night of celebrating, whereas the D
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backs had the line move and we're still fighting for a
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playoff spot. So we got the D backs.
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That was the good, the bad, the ugly and the terrible, though.
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The Patriots game, Oh my God, that was absolutely pathetic.
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Embarrassing. Patriots didn't even come close.
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Couldn't do anything on offense. Got a 6 1/2 again.
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They end up losing by what, 21 points from Andre Stevenson?
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Came up short with his rushing prop.
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So All in all, just a nightmare when it comes to that Thursday
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night game in the NFL. Now, you may have played the
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under. I'm kind of annoyed with myself
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because maybe I got a little too nitpicky there.
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Obviously it sailed under. We had a lot of system matches,
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but it did take up late. If you noticed when you're doing
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the pot, it was 38 1/2. It got up to 39 1/2 or even 40.
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So either way, you know, maybe you got a prime time under,
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maybe it didn't. The only consolation for me as a
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Patriots fan is the fact that I bet under 4 1/2 wins for the
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Patriots. And after Week 1, I said, oh,
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maybe they're better than I thought.
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Nope, they're pretty darn bad with no offensive line.
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I don't know how Elliott Wolf can come into a season with
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literally no left tackle. So maybe the under four and half
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win total is alive. The other one was frustrating
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with Storm Mercury over WNBA. We beat the closing line, got
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over 163 1/2. It closed 164 1/2.
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Unfortunately that thing stayed under by 5 points and there was
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a really bad second quarter. I think the Storm only scored
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eight points and that really sunk us in that one.
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So overall, 2 and 3 -, 1.2 units.
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Let's see if we can get it back here for tonight and pat our
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bankroll as we go into a big weekend.
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So with that being said, I want to focus on some Friday Night
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Lights. That's right, Friday Night
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Lights. Great series if you never
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watched it, but we got the real version in college football
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tonight with a triple header and I got a couple bets for you
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tonight, guys. So let's start off talking about
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Stanford and Syracuse. Now this one is intriguing.
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It is a 730 game. It is a nationally televised
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ESPN game and we've seen a lot of back and forth line movement.
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But the most important thing is that this one side that I'm
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taking has always been super contrarian.
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So let's set the stage. I'll give you my play coming in
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this one. We had Stanford one and one
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brushed aside Cal Poly last week, 41 to 7 did not cover
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though as a 35 1/2 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, Cuse is 2 and O just beat Georgia Tech 3128.
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They pushed as a three-point home favorite.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, this game opened with Syracuse listed as a nine and a
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half point home favorite. And the public is all over Cuse.
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Syracuse is getting 75% of spread bets.
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But here's the thing, even though they're the big public
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play, 75%, this line actually opened -9 1/2 Syracuse.
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And at one point, it got all the way down to -7 1/2.
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Or no, maybe not seven and a half, 8 1/2 around there.
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Somewhere around there. Yeah, I think 8 1/2 was a low
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watermark. I might have seen an 8, but it
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has since now come back to Syracuse -9 and some books are 9
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1/2. So basically we're right back
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where we started, Syracuse laying 9 1/2.
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The opener it's back to 9 or now 9 1/2.
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But if you look at the movement and liability, the line has
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always stayed the same or moved towards Stanford.
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Like this line has never gotten up to 10.
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And why is that important? Because if you are a big heavy
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favorite like that was Syracuse getting 75%, you'd think if they
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open 9 1/2 they'd be up to 10 1/2.
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Eleven and a half. No, the lines actually dip
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toward Stanford and gone back to the opener.
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So reading between the lines, this tells me you have a little
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bit of a line freeze here on Stanford with some liability
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throughout the week. Stanford only getting 25% of
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spread bets and a heavily bet primetime game.
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ESPN game. So similar to last night where
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we had a primetime game only getting 30% of bets with South
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Alabama. Now, aside from the contrarian
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spot and kind of the line freeze or some RLM throughout the week,
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we also have some pretty similar teams, at least on paper.
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Stanford's scored 68 points in two games.
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QS has put up 69 points in two games.
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So very equal offensively. And believe it or not, the
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Cardinal have actually been better defensively.
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They've only given up 41 points versus 50 for Syracuse.
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Stanford is 10th in the country in terms of rushing defense.
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And you have a little bit of a, I would say under lean in this
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one. It opened 58, it's down to 56
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1/2, even though 55% of spread bets are going over.
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But the way I'm looking at this one guys is everyone's betting
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Syracuse and yet the line is either stayed the same or
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briefly dipped towards Stanford. So I'm going to play Stanford in
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the points. Shop around.
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Try to get the hook on the 9 1/2 if you can.
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A lot of books you're at, I see an 8 1/2 out there, but a lot
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are at 9 and there are a couple at 9 1/2 including both ESPN Bet
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and Bet MGM. They're both 9 1/2 right now.
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So try to get the hook plus 9 1/2 with Stanford.
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Next one, Illinois and Nebraska. Now this one is interesting for
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a very similar reason. This kind of looks very close to
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that Stanford QS game. Like if you like Stanford, like
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me, you're probably going to like Illinois.
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So I'm going to take Illinois in the points here, guys.
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Let's set the stage though. Illinois comes in three and O,
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they're ranked 24th in the country, just beat Central
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Michigan 30 to 9, but did not cover as a 21 1/2 point home
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favorite. Meanwhile, Nebraska 3 and O
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ranked 22nd, just took down Northern Iowa 34 to 3.
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They did cover as a 30 1/2 point home favorite.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, this came open at Nebraska as a nine point home favorite
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and the public is split down the middle.
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They don't know what to do 5050. They don't know whether to take
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the points or lay the points. But Despite that even split, we
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actually saw Nebraska -9 opener get down to -7 1/2.
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Now since that time, it's gone back up to Nebraska -9 again.
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Some shops are still hanging 8 1/2, but very similar to that
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Stanford QS line where basically we dip toward the dog and then
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came back to the opener. Like the line is never moved in
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terms of the favorite for Nebraska here.
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So 5050 line shouldn't move at all.
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Technically it hasn't. It's back up to 9.
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But I think it's important to look at the line history, not
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just open the current, but all the moves in between.
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So again, Nebraska has never gone to 9 1/2, but if they have
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gone as low as 7 1/2 and they're back up to 9:00.
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So that tells me reading between the lines that the liabilities
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on Illinois and the points. So I'll take the plus 9 here
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with Illinois. They're pretty much widely
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available at 9. I got it at Caesar's.
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If you look at the fighting line, I they have some
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advantages here in terms of a conference dog.
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So the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect, leveling the
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playing field, benefiting the team, getting points.
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They have some correlative betting now they're getting 9
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points here in a low total game, only 42 1/2.
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Few amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the
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favorite to cover the number. Also keep an eye on the total.
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Looks like a pretty sharp under at open 43 1/2.
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It is now down to 42 1/2. Only 40% bets, but 64% money is
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on the under. But Long story short, 5050
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public doesn't know what to do. But based on the line movement,
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not just the open verse current, it looks like the liabilities
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toward Illinois. So I'm gonna take that
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conference dog, that dog low total.
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I'm gonna take Illinois plus 9 last night of the night, San
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Jose State and Washington state, the one I know you're most
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excited about sweating tonight. San Jose State, 10:00 tonight
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visiting Washington State, the Spartans come in three and O
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just breeze past Kennesaw State 31 to 10 covered as a 16 1/2
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point home favorite. Meanwhile, Wazoo is 3 and O just
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took down Washington 24 to 19 one out right as a six point
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neutral site dog. Remember that was a game we
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mentioned on throughout the week last week in terms of taking the
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points with wazoo. But anyway, everyone is playing
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Washington State tonight. Washington State is getting 72%
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of spread bets. They actually open as a 14 point
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home favorite. And even though everyone's
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betting wazoo, the line's falling towards San Jose State.
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We open wazoo -14. We're down to -1313 1/2.
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There's some 12 and a halfs out there.
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So there's another game where it's important to shop for the
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best line. But let me ask you this.
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If everyone's betting wazoo, why why isn't wazoo -14 up to -15 -?
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16 tells me you got some liability on San Jose State.
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San Jose State is only getting 28% of bets and a heavily bet
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late night game 10:00 here, your chase game, all the drunk people
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at the bar will chase and you can say am I Washington State to
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get it all back in one fell suit, which you shouldn't do as
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grinders and flat betters. But anyway 28% of bets in a
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heavily bet late night game contrarian opportunity.
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You look at San Jose State, their defense has been pretty
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good. They've only given up 41 points
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in three games. Wazoo's giving up 65.
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Also, you have a relative dog low total, nearly A2 touchdown
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dog and a total of 55 S harder for the favorite to cover.
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And also I'm thinking is this a let down spot for Washington
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State? Like you just had a huge game, a
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huge upset win against your in state rival Washington.
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Now you play San Jose State. Feels like a layup.
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Maybe San Jose State creeps up on tonight in a let down spot
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for Wazoo. We have seen this total go back
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and forth and open 55 1/2. It got up as high as 57 1/2.
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It's now back down to around 55 and a half 55.
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Only 40% bets are taking the under.
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So it looks like some late under movement, but I'm going to shop
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for the best line. Guys, try to find San Jose State
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in the hook again. Everyone's betting Washington
12:35
State. Yeah, we've had a little
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movement towards San Jose State. So I was able to get San Jose
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State at plus 13 1/2 at Bet MGM. So 3 pack tonight.
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Can we get 2 out of these three dogs to bark?
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San Jose State plus 13 1/2, Illinois +9 and Stanford plus 9
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1/2. Now over to some Major League
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Baseball couple games here on tap.
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You are welcome to sweat them with me if you are interested.
13:00
Philadelphia at the New York Mets.
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Now going into this one pitching matchup, we have Christopher
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Sanchez on the bump for the Phillies.
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He's 10 and 93.24 ERA. He'll be opposed by the lefty
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David Peterson, who's nine and two with a 2.85 ERA.
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What are we sitting across the market here?
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Sharp dog to fave line move in favor of the Mets.
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This game opened with Philadelphia listed as high as a
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-, 115 road favorite. And now we've seen this line go
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back toward the Mets, where we opened again.
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Mets as a dog minus one O 5 or plus one O 5.
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Now they're laying -115 So we've seen dog to fave movement in
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favor of the Mets. Now the Mets are only getting
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50% of money line bets. So again, line really shouldn't
13:41
move at all. 5050 yet we've seen this flip toward New York.
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I want to play the Mets because not only of this, this sharp
13:48
line move tells me smart money's on the Mets.
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But the Mets are hot, hot, hot, hot right now.
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They've scored ten runs in three straight games, setting a club
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record. The Mets as a favorite now again
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-115 they're 58 and 3562 percent, 8% ROI, third best
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chalk team in baseball. Last 10 games they're seven and
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three hitting 258 with a 2.76 ERA.
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Philly six and four, hitting only 229 with a 4.34 ERA.
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If you dig into these pitchers a little bit more, Sanchez, he's
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had a good year overall, but he's very Jekyll and Hyde.
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Home Rd. At home he's been great.
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Citizens Bank Ballpark, he's got a 2 point O 5 ERA on the road,
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5.13. He's on the road tonight.
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And David Peterson, for whatever reason, Mets play well when this
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guy pitches. The Mets are 14 and 4.
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Their last eighteen starts made by Peterson.
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And again, motivational edge I would give to the Mets.
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Philly hasn't technically locked up the NL East, but they're six
14:45
games up with like I think eight games to go.
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The Mets are tied for the number two wild card spot.
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So you have the Atlanta Braves right on their heels.
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So they need to continue to win to make a playoff appearance.
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Philly pretty much has it locked up even though technically they
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don't. But Long story short, even if
15:01
you throw that out, Mets are playing good ball right now.
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They got a dog to fave line move.
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They are technically a favorite. Low total told this one is 7 1/2
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their favorite. So I'm going to ride the Mets
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here. Guys, shop around.
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I was able to get the Mets at -115.
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Now, if it ain't broke, let's not fix it.
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Arizona snakes on the road at Milwaukee.
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We bet the snakes two days in a row.
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They've won for us both times. Let's try to make it three
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straight Arizona tonight at Milwaukee, 8:10 PM Eastern Time
15:29
we have Zach Gallon pitching for the snakes.
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He's 12 and six 3.61 ERA. He'll be opposed by Colin Ray
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who's 12 and five 4.14 ERA. What are we seeing across the
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market here? Well, one sided movement in
15:42
favor of Arizona. Arizona open around a -, 115 -,
15:45
120 Rd. favorite. Now Arizona is up to -125 even
15:50
-130 So all movement liabilities been toward the snakes.
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They're getting around 70% of bets, but nearly 80% of dollars.
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So a low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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Arizona also has a lot of system matches here.
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They are one of the better chalk teams in baseball.
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If you look at Arizona, when they are favored, they tend to
16:10
play very, very well. They are the 4th best chalk team
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in baseball, 52 and 29 with a nine percent ROI.
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Now if you look at the offense, I'm hoping that really that is a
16:22
benefit to Arizona here because they're hitting 264 on the year.
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They've hit 198 homers, 840 runs scored.
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You look at Milwaukee hitting two 48171 homers, 736 runs
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scored. Arizona will match as a sweet
16:37
spot. Rd. favorite -130 or less non
16:39
division Rd. favorite off a win. Rd. favorites with steam all
16:42
lighting up here on Arizona also last 10 games, the bats of
16:47
Arizona, they're hitting three O 5.
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Milwaukee's only hitting 226. And if you dig into these
16:51
pictures a little bit more, Zach Gallon has been great in
16:54
September. He's made three starts,
16:56
Arizona's three and O in those games he's got a 1.69 ERA.
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Complete opposite for Colin Ray. Colin Ray in three September
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starts has an area of 10.13. So I want to fade Ray.
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I want a bat Gallon and then motivation.
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Milwaukee's clinched. They got nothing to play for.
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Maybe they're still hungover from celebrating all night, but
17:15
Arizona again tied #2 wild card spot with the Mets.
17:18
They got to keep playing and keep winning.
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Add it all up guys, I'm going to go with this sharp line move.
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I was able to get Arizona at -125 S both Arizona and the
17:28
Mets. Now over to the NFL card for
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this weekend. I'll tell you what guys, I am
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locked and loaded with a big NFL card.
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So let's run through the plays and I'll tell you where I'm at
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and you can decide whether or not to tail fade or do whatever
17:42
you like. Here's what I'm sweating.
17:44
Minnesota almost called them the Twinkies.
17:46
Minnesota Vikings at home against Houston.
17:48
I've had my eye on this game all week long, but I'm going to take
17:51
the points here with Minnesota. Now.
17:53
I got a little greedy. I was holding out for a three on
17:56
Minnesota key number. I don't think we're getting it,
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guys. But remember, Houston opened as
18:01
high as -4 the lines down to 2 1/2 and now two at a lot of
18:05
shops. And that's normal because 65% of
18:07
bets are in Houston get the lines falling to Minnesota.
18:11
If you look at week 3, both undefeated teams take the home
18:14
dog, 69% ATS last decade or so. So I don't think we're getting
18:19
the three. You're actually at this point
18:21
lucky just to get the 2 1/2. So I have one book still
18:24
available at 2 1/2. Fanduel's at 2 1/2.
18:27
Most books are at 2:00. If you want to buy up the two to
18:30
two and a half and get that hook, you can do it.
18:32
If it you find a juice down Minnesota like a + 2 - 1 O 5,
18:37
take them to plus 2 1/2 at -120. But I was able to get Minnesota
18:40
plus 2 1/2 again at -120 next one.
18:45
I don't love this because it's public, but it looks both public
18:48
and sharp. The Saints decided to money line
18:50
the Saints. Guys.
18:51
Saints are at home against Philly.
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Saints open this game as low as a one point home favorite.
18:56
Now they're up to -2 1/2, maybe even going to -3 so all movement
19:00
and liability has been on New Orleans.
19:02
Now they're getting 65% of bets but 76% of dollars.
19:06
So good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
19:09
Philly's on a short week having played Monday night.
19:12
Also, Philly doesn't have A.J. Brown and New Orleans is really
19:15
clicking right now offensively and now they're at home, so
19:18
maybe they're catching Philly at a good time without A.J.
19:21
Brown. But instead of laying a 2 1/2 or
19:24
a three with New Orleans, it's a money line bet for me.
19:26
I got New Orleans at -145 I'd hate to lay a 2 1/2 or three.
19:31
Have a win by one or two. Remember, open around one.
19:34
Odds makers are telling you it's probably going to be a close
19:36
game, so I'm going money line here.
19:37
Win the damn game. Saints -145 another disgusting
19:42
game. Green Bay.
19:43
Tennessee, if you would like to join me, I'm going Tennessee.
19:47
Everyone and their mother is on Green Bay.
19:49
Green Bay is getting nearly 70% of spread bets.
19:52
Remember this game open Tennessee -1 1/2.
19:55
Tennessee is now up to -2 1/2 even -3.
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So if 70% of bets are on Green Bay, why is the line going to
20:00
Tennessee? Now we did see the sign get down
20:03
to, I want to say 2 because it was thought maybe Jordan Love
20:06
would play. He was at practice.
20:08
But he wasn't really moving around very well.
20:10
Maybe he plays next week. I don't think he's going to play
20:12
this week. So maybe Malik Willis, remember
20:15
he was on Tennessee. Does Tennessee have some
20:16
institutional knowledge against Willis?
20:19
But big angle here for me is everyone's betting Green Bay.
20:22
The line keeps going to Tennessee.
20:24
Tennessee's only getting around 30% of bets, but 60% of dollars.
20:28
A great low bets, higher dollars bet split.
20:31
And also I'm going money line not going to mess around laying
20:34
a 2 1/2 for three again. It open round one.
20:38
I got Tennessee at -145 on the money line.
20:41
Miami, Seattle. Give me the points here.
20:43
Talked about this one yesterday but I'm on Miami plus 4 1/2.
20:46
Remember they open plus 6 1/2 so lines going in their favor even
20:50
though public doesn't want anything to do with Miami.
20:52
Now that 2 is injured. You currently have Seattle
20:55
getting around 70% of bets but the lines going to Miami.
20:59
Now, the reason I like Miami is that reverse line move, only
21:02
getting 30%, but they went from 6 1/2 down to four and a half.
21:05
Road dogs have been a smart bet historically in this year,
21:08
they're 61% against the spread. You're really buying low on
21:11
Miami, selling high on Seattle after their win against the
21:13
Patriots. And Miami does have a rest
21:15
advantage. They last played on Thursday.
21:17
So maybe Seattle eeks out a three-point win, a four point
21:20
win. But a lot of these four and a
21:21
halfs look like they may be getting down to four.
21:23
So I'm going to take those points.
21:25
Give me Miami plus 4 1/2. Here's a game we bet early in
21:28
the week. Arizona.
21:29
Give me Arizona +3 at home against Detroit.
21:32
This is basically 5050. Public doesn't know where to go
21:34
here. But the lines always shown
21:36
liability toward Arizona. We open this one as high as
21:39
Detroit -4 1/2 the lines down to three and all the juice is
21:44
toward Arizona. Like it may get down to 2 1/2.
21:46
I even see a couple books at 2 1/2.
21:48
So I'm taking the 3 here guys with that good sharp move.
21:52
And remember Kyler Murray 26 and 14 against the spread as a dog
21:56
in his career, 65%. So give me Arizona +3.
22:00
This is a late edition for me. I'm kicking myself a little bit
22:03
for not getting a better number, but I think you can maybe still
22:05
get a 7:00. I'm going to take the Rams.
22:08
This is a gross one because Rams look terrible to start the year.
22:11
They got a lot of injuries, but the San Francisco 49ers also
22:14
have a lot of injuries. No Debo Samuel.
22:18
George Kittle I believe is banged up.
22:20
He may or may not play. McCaffrey still out.
22:23
I'm hoping that the Rams maybe lose but cover the number here.
22:26
So Rams actually opened as a 7 1/2 point dog in San Fran.
22:31
They got down to seven. Now they're down to 6 1/2.
22:34
The sign keeps falling toward the Rams, even though they're
22:37
only getting 35% of spread bets. So it tells me smart money's on
22:41
the Rams. If you look at winless teams in
22:43
Week 3, they're 63% against the spread.
22:46
If you also look at big dogs, seven or more, I believe they're
22:49
seven and O against the spread, or 8 and O8TS.
22:52
McVeigh has been good as a dog. This is a divisional dog with
22:55
the Rams. Again, San Fran's a better team,
22:57
but they're pretty banged up. I'm going to take the points in
23:00
this one. Also, you're like a touchdown
23:01
dog in a low total game of 43 1/2.
23:04
So if you can find a 7, that's your best number on the Rams.
23:07
Some shops are juiced up minus 6 1/2 -, 115 to San Fran.
23:11
So if you want to buy up the Rams to seven, also an
23:14
opportunity there, +7 at -120 That's what I got with Los
23:18
Angeles. Last bet of the weekend.
23:21
Aren't you glad you played this yesterday when I mentioned it?
23:24
Atlanta Falcons, guys, the Falcons are down to three.
23:27
I love this. Kansas City is a huge public
23:29
place. Sunday Night Football getting
23:31
80% of bets. But but the Kansas City Chiefs
23:34
open -4 1/2. Yesterday they got down to 3
23:37
1/2. Today, they're down to three.
23:39
The sign keeps plummeting toward Atlanta even though no one wants
23:42
to play them. So I'm feeling great.
23:44
Hopefully you got the hook as well.
23:46
But I am on Atlanta plus 3 1/2. I love primetime dogs.
23:49
Even though my Patriots didn't come through, they're 56%
23:52
against the spread since 2020. So Atlanta plus 3 1/2, Rams plus
23:56
7, Arizona plus 3, Miami plus 4 1/2, Tennessee and New Orleans
24:00
money line, excuse me, and Minnesota plus 2 1/2.
24:05
Now over to the college football slate to wrap up the pod here,
24:08
guys. Couple games we have in pocket.
24:10
Couple games here that you might want to add.
24:13
So first one that I love, we talked about Oklahoma.
24:16
Everybody is betting Tennessee here, guys.
24:18
This is the most heavily bet game of the day on Saturday.
24:21
And it's also a prime time game, 7:30 PM Eastern Time.
24:24
So you know, this is going to be by far, you know, just no, no,
24:28
no game is coming close in terms of the ticket count here.
24:31
And what I love is heavily back games where everybody and their
24:34
mother's on one side and I can go the other way.
24:37
So everyone and their mother is on Tennessee.
24:39
Tennessee is coming into this one getting 86% of spread bets.
24:44
But remember, the Vols were at -7 1/2.
24:46
Now they're down to seven. They even see a 6 1/2 out there.
24:49
So Lions coming back toward Oklahoma, even though they're
24:53
only getting 14% of spread bets and a heavily bet primetime
24:56
game. I was able to get the seven and
24:58
a half the other day. You may only be able to get to
25:01
the seven. You know, look for a juiced up 7
25:03
1/2, seven juiced up 7 on Tennessee.
25:06
If you want to buy them up, buy Oklahoma up to 7 1/2.
25:10
But even if you just want to take the seven, you know, hey,
25:13
you'd love the hook, but that is a #1 contrarian play that I want
25:16
to get behind, so I'm going to Oklahoma again. 7 Now you might
25:20
have gotten a 7 1/2 earlier. USC, Michigan, who got Michigan
25:25
plus six. Guess what, guys?
25:27
They're down to 4 1/2 at some shops.
25:28
This line is coming back toward Michigan.
25:31
You love to see it. This is the second most heavily
25:33
back game of the weekend. It's a 330 game and everyone's
25:36
betting. USCUSC is getting 81% of spread
25:39
bets. But remember, this was as high
25:41
as USC minus 6 1/2. It's down to 4 1/2.
25:45
So hopefully we got a six earlier in the week, but I'm
25:47
definitely sticking with the points here.
25:48
Michigan, I got them at +6. I'm happy about this one because
25:53
the hook came back to us. Arizona State, give me Arizona
25:56
State, guys. This was a sharp play.
25:58
We identified early in the week. And then I'm glad we waited
26:01
because at one point Arizona State was getting 3 1/2.
26:05
They got down to 2 1/2 and instead of playing the 2 1/2, we
26:07
said, oh, maybe they'll be buyback.
26:08
Texas Tech. There was.
26:10
So now you're back up to Arizona State plus 3 1/2.
26:13
I'm grabbing that hook right now.
26:15
Arizona State's only getting 35% of spread bets.
26:18
They are a short Rd. dog system match.
26:21
They are a dog who can score system match.
26:24
This is hopefully a maybe, you know, lose by three and cover
26:27
with the hook. But I'm officially on the 3 1/2
26:30
with Arizona State. BYU jump on that seven baby.
26:33
BYU +7. This is a 10:30 PM Eastern Time
26:36
game. Everybody and their mother is on
26:39
is on Kansas State. They're ranked 13th.
26:43
Nearly 75% of bets are K State. But remember K State open -7 1/2
26:47
got down to seven. A lot of these sevens are
26:49
trending towards 6 and half, so this line keeps falling toward
26:52
BYU. Contrarian dog who can score on
26:55
ranked first rank. Give me BYU +7.
26:59
Then last bet for me sticking with Arkansas.
27:02
Arkansas is on the road at Auburn.
27:03
I'm going to take the points in a big SEC conference matchup
27:07
this game. Open Auburn as high as -4 it's
27:10
gone all the way down to 2 1/2. So it's important to me that you
27:14
get the three here. A lot of these Auburn -2 naps
27:17
are juiced up like it may go back to three, so you can wait
27:19
it out. You could buy it up, but you got
27:21
to get the key number of three. But I love the bet split here.
27:24
Arkansas only 55% bets, but 70% dollars.
27:28
And also conference dog as well as a, again, short Rd. dog
27:34
getting 4 or less, which one of my favorite systems.
27:36
So got to get the key number there.
27:38
Wait it out. You can buy it up.
27:40
Give me Arkansas +3. So Arkansas plus three, BYU plus
27:44
7, Arizona State plus 3 1/2. I got Michigan +6.
27:47
We're looking good on that down to four and a half.
27:49
And Oklahoma at 7 1/2, again, down to seven.
27:53
So that about does it for episode 124 of the All Systems
27:56
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
27:58
Here's the part of the pod where we wrap things up, but I start
28:01
by asking a favor of you. Would you please make my day and
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give this podcast a five star review on either Spotify or
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to let me know you appreciate the pod and the hard work that I
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gain more listens, gain more follows.
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Click the follow button. That way you'll be alerted as
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soon as it drops. If you want to recommend it to a
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friend, I'll really, I'll really enjoy that as well.
28:28
But please give it a five star review if you can.
28:31
Secondly, if you like these breakdowns of style of betting,
28:35
does every play we talk about win?
28:36
Of course not because betting is hard if you haven't realized
28:39
yet. But if you enjoy the style of
28:41
betting, the approach, the data-driven model, it appeals to
28:44
you. You now have a blueprint to
28:46
follow based on looking at the market and not just betting with
28:49
your gut instinct. But if you want to make my day,
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let me know you appreciate the pod or learn more about
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data-driven betting, I would love for you to go buy my book.
28:57
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
29:00
Betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
29:03
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
29:05
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
29:08
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
29:10
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
29:13
a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything Guide
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to Sports Betting. So buy a copy, bring it to the
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book, I'll sign it for you, and I'll buy you a beer next.
29:22
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Rhythm and
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Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't, I want you
29:27
to do that today because we got a big weekend ahead.
29:30
And Juice Reel and Rhythm are my two favorite apps.
29:33
They help me win. They're going to help you win.
29:34
So Rhythm fantastic for their AI predictions and models, where
29:39
you can get the AI prediction or model and then compare it to the
29:42
betting market for both player props and game bets.
29:45
And then with Juice Reel, great for syncing up your sports
29:48
books, getting a running report card of your results, as well as
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the sharp mush bets each day, which are the sharpest pro verse
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Joe plays. You can follow the robo Jackson
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best bet picks. You can take advantage of game
30:02
breakdown. So you get real dollar amounts
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on each game from everyone who has a juice reel account.
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So I want you to sign up for both juice reel and rhythm, but
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you got to do it in this specific way.
30:11
Please go to the bio description of the pod where it says, for
30:15
example, today I'll say something like an episode 124.
30:18
Josh dishes out a 5 pack of sweats for Friday and goes over
30:21
the best bet card for the weekend.
30:22
Scroll down below that you'll get a link to Juice Real and
30:25
Rhythm. Click those links.
30:27
That way when you sign up, they'll know that I sent you,
30:29
which is very important. But seriously, I love these
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these apps and I think you're going to like them too.
30:34
So that about does it, everybody, as always, whether I
30:37
see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
30:39
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
30:42
Sun in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
30:45
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
30:48
Massachusetts, out in the desert where the true grinders get
30:51
down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where the
30:54
lowest used possible is found at the South Point.
30:56
Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming
30:59
pool. When you cash a big ticket,
31:00
wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
31:03
Do not show me Patriots or Amandre Stevenson puke in my
31:06
mouth. Show me a South Alabama ticket.
31:08
Show me AD backs ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
31:11
you. We'll post about the book
31:13
Sweatshop contrarian plays all night long.
31:15
So have a fantastic weekend, everybody.
31:17
I'll leave you with this as always, stay sharp, stay
31:20
contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
31:23
side of the house always be with the smart money, never against
31:26
it. Will smart money when every
31:27
time? Of course not.
31:28
But here's the thing, anything can happen in a one off.
31:31
But if we can consistently make bets with make bets with our
31:33
head and not our heart against the public, with the house, with
31:37
the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
31:40
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters
31:42
long term. So good luck everybody.
31:45
Reminder, I'll see you guys on Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
31:48
Just go to my Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
31:51
You can tune into the rhythm Sunday sweats and then we'll be
31:53
back at it on Monday for episode 125 of the All Systems Go Sports
31:58
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
32:01
Good luck everybody, have a great weekend.