Latest / KDAV Radio / Better Offline - Gambling Is Eating The World w/ Nick Devor
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I'm, of course, your host,
- 0:08Speaker 1: Ed Zitron. Better Offline. Now, everyone, I know how much
- 0:21Speaker 1: you love gambling. And those of you who have been
- 0:25Speaker 1: gambling on the cockroach races, please use code ZITRON. 50%
- 0:29Speaker 1: off big boy cockroaches. Those are the ones that will
- 0:31Speaker 1: mostly lose you money, but you could win 100 to 1.
- 0:34Speaker 1: So anyway, we're sponsored by Cockroach Races. Now, putting all
- 0:36Speaker 1: that aside, joined by Nick Dever, who's a reporter at
- 0:40Speaker 1: Barron's covering gambling in the prediction markets. Nick, thank you
- 0:43Speaker 1: for joining us. We legally now cannot talk more about
- 0:46Speaker 1: the Cockroach Races, however.
- 0:48Speaker 2: It's true. They're unregulated. And as fun as they may be,
- 0:53Speaker 2: we do have to turn a little bit of a
- 0:55Speaker 2: blind eye. But I'll see you there tonight.
- 0:57Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, of course. And also, most of my
- 1:00Speaker 1: money is in that. But let's talk about the lesser
- 1:03Speaker 1: forms of gambling, by which I mean, of course, prediction markets.
- 1:06Speaker 1: What has been going on there recently? Because since you
- 1:10Speaker 1: last joined, I've only seen things get more demented.
- 1:14Speaker 2: Indeed. Yeah, since we last spoke, I think... I don't know,
- 1:17Speaker 2: first quarter of the year, prediction markets have continued to
- 1:20Speaker 2: just go absolutely crazy. We're seeing record trading volumes basically
- 1:25Speaker 2: every Sunday. Now, why every Sunday, Ed? Can you guess
- 1:29Speaker 2: what happens on Sunday? I can guess.
- 1:31Speaker 1: It's when the pigskin gets chucked around.
- 1:33Speaker 2: Exactly. Yeah. So, you know, these platforms position themselves as
- 1:38Speaker 2: financial instruments, places where you can hedge your risk. And
- 1:41Speaker 2: lots and lots of Americans are hedging their risk to
- 1:48Speaker 2: losing football games. I don't know. Basically, prediction markets are
- 1:53Speaker 2: going crazy because they have started offering and have continued
- 1:56Speaker 2: to offer the equivalent of parlay bets. What is a
- 2:01Speaker 2: parlay bet?
- 2:02Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 2:03Speaker 2: So when you place a bet on two individual outcomes,
- 2:07Speaker 2: so that's like the Patriots win And I actually don't
- 2:11Speaker 2: watch sports. So my, the amount of like, um, examples
- 2:15Speaker 2: I'm going to be able to provide is very low,
- 2:17Speaker 2: but that's fine. Um, you know, uh, the Patriots win
- 2:20Speaker 2: and this, um, this player scores this many touchdowns. If
- 2:25Speaker 2: I connect both of those bets and if I'm right
- 2:28Speaker 2: on both, then I get a massive payout because I'm
- 2:31Speaker 2: basically tying together multiple discrete bets into one large wager. Now,
- 2:35Speaker 2: these are super profitable for your traditional online sportsbook because
- 2:40Speaker 2: the odds are so long. And you can make parlays
- 2:44Speaker 2: with a lot of legs. Individual bets are called legs.
- 2:47Speaker 2: So with each leg that you add, your odds of
- 2:51Speaker 2: winning go down and the odds of the sportsbook taking
- 2:55Speaker 2: your money go up. So they're very profitable for the sportsbooks.
- 3:00Speaker 2: and prediction markets have started to offer them as well. Um,
- 3:03Speaker 2: and they're, they're less profitable for the prediction markets cause
- 3:05Speaker 2: they just take a cut of trading fees. But, um, yeah,
- 3:09Speaker 2: people love to sports bet and they love to tie
- 3:11Speaker 2: multiple bets into one. And that's, I have to, I
- 3:14Speaker 2: have to ask though, how is this legal?
- 3:16Speaker 1: Because even gambling on sports, which I truly don't do,
- 3:20Speaker 1: but I've tried to see like how far you can
- 3:23Speaker 1: push them with like VPNs just to sign up. And
- 3:25Speaker 1: they're actually surprisingly widely at stopping that. I, How is
- 3:30Speaker 1: this legal? Because I thought that there was very strong
- 3:32Speaker 1: regulation on sports betting in general, because I know DraftKings
- 3:35Speaker 1: and the other one, I truly don't remember. FanDuel. FanDuel,
- 3:40Speaker 1: there we go. How is it legal for Calci and
- 3:43Speaker 1: them to do it?
- 3:45Speaker 2: Right. So DraftKings and FanDuel, BetMGM, places like this, they
- 3:50Speaker 2: operate on the regular sportsbook model, which is regulated state
- 3:56Speaker 2: by state. In 2018, there was a Supreme Court decision
- 3:59Speaker 2: that basically opened up sports betting, which was illegal prior,
- 4:03Speaker 2: except in a few jurisdictions, to any state that wanted
- 4:06Speaker 2: to legalize it could. And each state is going to
- 4:09Speaker 2: have its own regulatory regime. Think about it like how
- 4:12Speaker 2: marijuana legalization worked. If a state wants to legalize it,
- 4:16Speaker 2: it can under its own terms. So prediction markets are
- 4:20Speaker 2: not technically sports betting. It's a financial exchange. So if
- 4:25Speaker 2: you and I agree that there's a 50-50 chance of
- 4:28Speaker 2: an event happening I think it's 50% yes. You think
- 4:31Speaker 2: it's 50% no. We each put up 50 cents into
- 4:34Speaker 2: a contract. And once the event happens, whoever is right
- 4:38Speaker 2: gets the other's 50 cents. So the contract is worth
- 4:40Speaker 2: a dollar once the event is over. And it's a
- 4:42Speaker 2: contract between two people? It's a contract between two people, yeah.
- 4:46Speaker 2: They're called event contracts or binary options because they only
- 4:49Speaker 2: have two outcomes. And usually they're tied to yes or
- 4:52Speaker 2: no questions. So will this team win? Will this player
- 4:56Speaker 2: score more than seven touchdowns or whatever? that kind of
- 5:00Speaker 2: a thing. And so because they're event contracts, because they're
- 5:03Speaker 2: technically financial instruments, um, they're regulated at the federal level
- 5:08Speaker 2: by the commodity futures trading commission. It's a small regulatory
- 5:12Speaker 2: body that handles options contracts, um, things like that nature.
- 5:17Speaker 2: And because they're financial products, you know, they're legal nationwide.
- 5:21Speaker 2: You know, you, once you turn 18, you can trade stocks.
- 5:24Speaker 2: Once you turn 18, you can trade options. Once you
- 5:26Speaker 2: turn 18, you can trade sports options tied to the
- 5:31Speaker 2: outcome of a sporting event. So on an underlying basis,
- 5:36Speaker 2: compared to a sports book, they are different. But from
- 5:40Speaker 2: a consumer point of view, they're identical product experiences. And
- 5:44Speaker 2: just to hammer that idea home, when you download DraftKings
- 5:49Speaker 2: and you open the app in New York, for example...
- 5:51Speaker 2: You open it up and you start betting. The odds
- 5:54Speaker 2: that you're seeing and the betting that you're doing, that's
- 5:56Speaker 2: on a traditional sportsbook model because New York has legal
- 5:59Speaker 2: sports betting. But if you then fly to California and
- 6:03Speaker 2: open up the same app on your phone, the app
- 6:06Speaker 2: looks identical. The odds are identical. The betting behavior is identical.
- 6:10Speaker 2: The whole UI, UX, everything. But the underlying product that
- 6:13Speaker 2: you're using is a prediction market because sports betting is
- 6:16Speaker 2: illegal in California. So even though there's an underlying difference
- 6:21Speaker 2: from a consumer point of view, it's the exact same product.
- 6:23Speaker 2: It's the exact same experience. And that's why prediction markets
- 6:27Speaker 2: were initially seen as kind of a threat to the
- 6:29Speaker 2: sports books. But the sports books realized that they can
- 6:32Speaker 2: use prediction markets to sort of like unlock a bunch
- 6:35Speaker 2: of new customers in states like Texas, California, um, a
- 6:40Speaker 2: lot of Florida that don't have many legal sports betting options.
- 6:44Speaker 1: But just so we're clear, do the DraftKings of the
- 6:46Speaker 1: world now do prediction markets as well?
- 6:49Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm saying. DraftKings and FanDuel and all
- 6:51Speaker 2: of them, they also have prediction markets. So DraftKings, their
- 6:55Speaker 2: tagline for all of their ads this year is that
- 6:59Speaker 2: we're finally available nationwide. You can DraftKings anywhere you are
- 7:03Speaker 2: in the country and the The ad campaign is like
- 7:06Speaker 2: Kevin Hart and one of the Jonas Brothers, I think.
- 7:09Speaker 1: Kevin Hart? I can't believe Kevin Hart would sell out.
- 7:12Speaker 2: Sorry, that's a joke.
- 7:14Speaker 1: For like 13 people who listen to this show and
- 7:16Speaker 1: be like, ha ha, yeah, got him. And if you've
- 7:20Speaker 1: never watched the Z-Way interview with Kevin Hart, I cannot
- 7:23Speaker 1: recommend it enough. Z-Way, fantastic podcaster she is. Anyway, moving
- 7:28Speaker 1: on from Kevin Hart, I... Is there anything stopping this?
- 7:33Speaker 1: Are there any efforts to try and stop this from
- 7:35Speaker 1: existing or at least slow it down? Or is this just,
- 7:39Speaker 1: is this the new normal, at least until we have
- 7:41Speaker 1: different people in Congress or what have you?
- 7:44Speaker 2: Definitely. There's a lot of efforts.
- 7:46Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 7:46Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, exactly. There's a lot of efforts to
- 7:48Speaker 2: slow this down on a lawsuit basis. Um, dozens of
- 7:53Speaker 2: states I think have, um, at this point sued Cal
- 7:57Speaker 2: she or poly market or the other prediction markets. you know,
- 8:00Speaker 2: alleging that they're offering illegal gambling in their state. And
- 8:03Speaker 2: those cases are working their way to the Supreme Court.
- 8:07Speaker 2: I don't want to like get too into too many specifics,
- 8:10Speaker 2: because honestly, like every four days, there's another legal development
- 8:14Speaker 2: that kind of changes the landscape. But one thing is
- 8:18Speaker 2: for sure, I think anyway, is that this is going
- 8:21Speaker 2: to wind up at the Supreme Court, it will need
- 8:23Speaker 2: to be decided there, whether or not, you know, swaps,
- 8:27Speaker 2: as they're known, these binary options tied to sporting events
- 8:31Speaker 2: are swaps or whether they're sports bets. That's the fundamental question. Whether,
- 8:36Speaker 2: you know, in 2011, when Dodd-Frank, I think that was
- 8:39Speaker 2: the year, when Dodd-Frank was passed and we brought swaps
- 8:43Speaker 2: under the regulation of the CFTC, whether Congress intended at
- 8:47Speaker 2: that point that, you know, there would be sports betting
- 8:51Speaker 2: with these swaps. And, you know, I've spoken to Gary Gensler,
- 8:54Speaker 2: who was the chair of the CFTC at the time
- 8:57Speaker 2: and famously chair of the Securities Exchange Commission under the
- 9:01Speaker 2: former President Joe Biden. And he has told me, no,
- 9:03Speaker 2: that was that was not the intention of Congress. Congress
- 9:06Speaker 2: did not.
- 9:07Speaker 1: Yeah, it was barely the intention of Congress to stop anything.
- 9:10Speaker 1: I have a lot of cynicism about the regulation from
- 9:13Speaker 1: that time. But yeah, it's just it's yet more times
- 9:16Speaker 1: in which regulation just created a new industry rather than
- 9:19Speaker 1: suppressed one.
- 9:21Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. I think that there's a question of whether
- 9:24Speaker 2: congressional intent actually matters, but it seems pretty clear that
- 9:29Speaker 2: the congressional intent was not for there to be nationwide
- 9:33Speaker 2: sports betting through financial contracts. But whether or not the
- 9:38Speaker 2: Supreme Court adheres to what was meant at that time
- 9:43Speaker 2: or what... I've had people in the prediction market world
- 9:46Speaker 2: be like, Well, you know, the law is very clear
- 9:48Speaker 2: that it allows this. And, you know, I just don't
- 9:50Speaker 2: think that the Supreme Court really cares how clear the
- 9:53Speaker 2: law is at any given time. They're going to kind
- 9:56Speaker 2: of interpret it how they choose. So.
- 10:00Speaker 1: that's what that's what's so strange about all this as
- 10:02Speaker 1: well because finance and contracts and like financial court those
- 10:06Speaker 1: things are fairly well regulated but it seems that these
- 10:09Speaker 1: companies have just kind of used the regulation to make
- 10:12Speaker 1: themselves legal rather than i don't know i i realize
- 10:15Speaker 1: i'm kind of dithering on this point but It almost
- 10:19Speaker 1: feels like they just found a loophole by ignoring everything.
- 10:23Speaker 1: It's just because you can't do options. You could do
- 10:26Speaker 1: options trading in most states, but there are limitations to
- 10:30Speaker 1: how much margin you can have. There are very fixed
- 10:33Speaker 1: things you can and can't do. But with this, you
- 10:35Speaker 1: could just do anything as long as you're, what, 18, 21?
- 10:39Speaker 2: Is there even an age limit? Yeah, it's 18. That's nationwide. Oh, good.
- 10:44Speaker 2: That's even better. The argument for– the whole point with
- 10:50Speaker 2: event contracts and the idea that they– what they're supposed
- 10:54Speaker 2: to be doing, if you look at old interviews with
- 10:57Speaker 2: Tarek Mansour, it's the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the
- 11:01Speaker 2: example he always uses is Brexit. So he was a
- 11:05Speaker 2: trader or something at some firm before he founded Kalshi,
- 11:10Speaker 2: and clients wanted a way to hedge their exposure to Brexit.
- 11:15Speaker 2: So it's kind of difficult to do that with like
- 11:16Speaker 2: a package of stocks. What stocks do you buy or
- 11:20Speaker 2: not buy to estimate an outcome of Brexit? It's kind
- 11:24Speaker 2: of difficult to do that. But a much cleaner way
- 11:26Speaker 2: would be, well, what if I can just trade an
- 11:28Speaker 2: option on like, yes, Brexit will happen. And if it
- 11:32Speaker 2: does happen, then I get paid because that's actually what
- 11:34Speaker 2: I'm looking for. So that's where binary contracts can actually
- 11:38Speaker 2: be useful. That's like an actual use case for prediction
- 11:41Speaker 2: markets is this hedging um, opportunity. And that's where I,
- 11:45Speaker 2: you know, I think that's totally valid. That's like the
- 11:47Speaker 2: point of a financial market. Right. But now, but the
- 11:51Speaker 2: thing is like now their primary business is sports. And
- 11:55Speaker 2: so like when, you know, it's kind.
- 11:57Speaker 1: Of a pushback about what the primary function of a
- 12:00Speaker 1: financial market on that one though, because living in the beautiful,
- 12:05Speaker 1: beautiful Las Vegas, Nevada with our beautiful slot machines. One
- 12:08Speaker 1: of the things that I've noticed about the casinos is
- 12:11Speaker 1: they very rarely let you bet on, for both the
- 12:14Speaker 1: house's benefit and otherwise, bet on binary things. Maybe you'll
- 12:18Speaker 1: do a yes or no, but even red or black
- 12:21Speaker 1: on a roulette table is 48.9%, what have you. But
- 12:24Speaker 1: the big thing is they don't let you bet on
- 12:27Speaker 1: just like, how many fingers am I holding up or
- 12:29Speaker 1: stuff like that. That's the common, it's like, and the
- 12:32Speaker 1: idea of like, oh, I can hedge whether an outcome
- 12:34Speaker 1: happens directly feels like it's not even in, it's not
- 12:38Speaker 1: even a financial market anymore. It's not, you're not investing in,
- 12:42Speaker 1: you're not actually investing in anything. And this is because,
- 12:47Speaker 1: this is why, by the way, Mormonism just made prediction
- 12:50Speaker 1: markets against the religion. I don't know if you heard
- 12:52Speaker 1: about this. No. What? Mormonism.
- 12:55Speaker 2: Yes.
- 12:55Speaker 1: So Mormonism, I gotta look this up. Mormonism just made
- 12:58Speaker 1: prediction markets because the argument is, yeah, it's also illegal
- 13:06Speaker 1: in Utah.
- 13:08Speaker 2: Yeah, there is that.
- 13:08Speaker 1: And to be clear, we are not a pro-Mormon podcast,
- 13:12Speaker 1: just getting that out there. Yes, it's fostering greed, particularly
- 13:17Speaker 1: amongst youths while producing nothing of value. Gambling is, gambling
- 13:22Speaker 1: is built on the desire to obtain something for nothing.
- 13:24Speaker 1: And this is the one and only thing I agree
- 13:27Speaker 1: with the Mormons on, because that's the thing. That's not
- 13:29Speaker 1: a financial market.
- 13:31Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 13:31Speaker 1: A financial market is a market for financial instruments. Unless
- 13:35Speaker 1: you were saying that, I guess that there are probably
- 13:37Speaker 1: financial instruments that aren't about, well, I mean, even commodities though,
- 13:39Speaker 1: you're still betting, you're still actually, I said betting, they're
- 13:42Speaker 1: going to get me for that one. But you're still
- 13:43Speaker 1: investing in it. You're still investing in a thing. With this,
- 13:47Speaker 1: it's I'm investing in and whether a thing happens, I guess.
- 13:52Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 13:52Speaker 1: I'm sure that someone's going to email me and say, well,
- 13:54Speaker 1: there's an example here in finance. I don't think anything
- 13:57Speaker 1: like that should exist in finance. I also think that
- 14:00Speaker 1: we need to massively pare back almost every financial instrument.
- 14:04Speaker 1: I think that we are too speculative. But it is
- 14:06Speaker 1: interesting as well seeing the Mormons coming out as a
- 14:09Speaker 1: moral side on this. But that's what it comes down to.
- 14:13Speaker 1: That's the real problem with this. It's not really betting
- 14:15Speaker 1: on anything. But I also think that you should make
- 14:18Speaker 1: DraftKings illegal and Fangio illegal and Polymarket and all them illegal.
- 14:23Speaker 1: Send them a big boat. Send them away.
- 14:36Speaker 2: Well, the thing is about on the pointing of whether
- 14:39Speaker 2: this is, I guess, the big question has been whether
- 14:42Speaker 2: prediction markets are investing or not. Should they sit alongside
- 14:47Speaker 2: your 401ks, your ETF stocks, whatever? Is that what people
- 14:53Speaker 2: are suggesting?
- 14:54Speaker 1: Is that being put on the table?
- 14:56Speaker 2: Well, if you open Robinhood right now, you can liquidate
- 14:59Speaker 2: your stock position and go put it all on football
- 15:04Speaker 2: with prediction markets in the same app.
- 15:09Speaker 1: Is there a prediction market ETF though, which is just
- 15:11Speaker 1: a fund of different options that you could buy into
- 15:15Speaker 1: that usually it's like stocks or bonds.
- 15:17Speaker 2: There's no prediction market ETF, but I have seen that
- 15:19Speaker 2: there is something, and I need to do more reading
- 15:23Speaker 2: and reporting on this, so I don't want to get
- 15:24Speaker 2: too into it and tell your listeners wrong, but everyone
- 15:27Speaker 2: should go look up hockey ETF because I'm pretty sure
- 15:32Speaker 2: that you can now trade an ETF tied to the
- 15:35Speaker 2: performance of hockey teams. And yeah, I'll make a comment
- 15:40Speaker 2: on that. That is.
- 15:41Speaker 1: volatility shares has filed to launch an exchange-traded fund for
- 15:45Speaker 1: every NHL team, a set of products, unlike anything currently trading.
- 15:49Speaker 1: And I'm just not going to read the rest of
- 15:50Speaker 1: that article because I'm going to put a gun in my...
- 15:52Speaker 1: Moving on. But this is the thing. Again, talking of Vegas,
- 15:59Speaker 1: though we obviously love our gambling and we love our tax,
- 16:03Speaker 1: we don't have to pay state tax, but there is
- 16:05Speaker 1: also a There are big guardrails around gambling there. And
- 16:10Speaker 1: I should be clear, this is not me being pro-gambling
- 16:13Speaker 1: so as much as I am pro-responsibility and restraint, wherever
- 16:17Speaker 1: it can be found. But there are big, like, if
- 16:19Speaker 1: you look too young in a casino, they can and
- 16:22Speaker 1: they will come over and tell you to leave. If
- 16:25Speaker 1: you look like you are too trashed, they will actually
- 16:27Speaker 1: pull you from a table. They're hesitant to provide credit.
- 16:30Speaker 1: But I read a story the other day. I think
- 16:32Speaker 1: it was one of the DraftKings one. It was ProPublica.
- 16:36Speaker 1: I might be wrong on this one, where the story
- 16:37Speaker 1: was they pretended to be a problem gambler and within
- 16:41Speaker 1: a week they had a personal sales rep.
- 16:44Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Well, the thing is, Ed, like
- 16:48Speaker 2: what is the difference between a problem gambler and a
- 16:51Speaker 2: profitable customer at a sports book? I would argue that
- 16:54Speaker 2: there is not one. Something like, you know, I think
- 16:58Speaker 2: there was a research in the business journal of gambling
- 17:03Speaker 2: and sports, but I can't remember the exact journal, but
- 17:05Speaker 2: Some research published that something like 5% of sports bettors
- 17:11Speaker 2: are responsible for more than 80% of all of the
- 17:15Speaker 2: profit and revenue that sportsbooks generate. So a huge portion
- 17:20Speaker 2: of profits come from a very small, potentially problematic source.
- 17:25Speaker 2: And that ratio roughly holds across vice industries. It's the
- 17:30Speaker 2: same in marijuana, alcohol. This is called the addiction surplus.
- 17:35Speaker 2: So it's this argument that the addictive nature of the product,
- 17:38Speaker 2: you know, inherently makes it easier to sell to people
- 17:43Speaker 2: who are more prone to addiction. And, you know, some
- 17:46Speaker 2: researchers have argued that this leads vice industries to tamp
- 17:50Speaker 2: down on consumer protections because, you know, on a gambling site, um,
- 17:56Speaker 2: their revenues are tied one-to-one to consumer losses. So everything
- 18:01Speaker 2: they do to protect consumers literally cuts into the bottom line. Jesus.
- 18:07Speaker 1: I mean, yes, I think we need the Nevada Game
- 18:10Speaker 1: Commission to come down on these people. That's the actual
- 18:13Speaker 1: thing that I don't get, though, because you spend your
- 18:15Speaker 1: time in Vegas, people are like, oh yeah, the NGC
- 18:17Speaker 1: will mess you up, but it's somehow not effective on
- 18:21Speaker 1: this one?
- 18:21Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there's only so much they can do
- 18:26Speaker 2: to require them to you know, do certain customer protection measures.
- 18:33Speaker 2: We're also just in the U.S. like way far behind
- 18:37Speaker 2: other countries. You know, in the U.K., for example, there's
- 18:40Speaker 2: a lot more stringent consumer protection and regulations on gambling
- 18:45Speaker 2: than there is in the U.S. just because for sports
- 18:47Speaker 2: betting in particular, you know, it's less than a decade
- 18:51Speaker 2: that we've had this kind of nationwide fascination and thing
- 18:55Speaker 2: with it. We're a much more, the U.S. is a
- 18:57Speaker 2: lot more like historically in the way that we think
- 18:59Speaker 2: about gambling, we think about Vegas, we think about slots,
- 19:04Speaker 2: whereas in the UK and some more European countries, sports
- 19:07Speaker 2: betting is synonymous with gambling in a way that it
- 19:10Speaker 2: really wasn't in the US until 2018.
- 19:12Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it just feels like this isn't slowing down.
- 19:18Speaker 1: It's very worrying to me.
- 19:22Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we are seeing a bit of a
- 19:25Speaker 2: taper in like and a plateauing, I should say, in
- 19:28Speaker 2: terms of total dollars wagered on online sports books. But yeah, generally, yeah,
- 19:33Speaker 2: generally gambling participation, um, is going up. I would say
- 19:38Speaker 2: more people are gambling than ever. That's an easy claim
- 19:41Speaker 2: to make. Um, 50% of American men under the age
- 19:45Speaker 2: of 49 have an account on a digital sportsbook. So
- 19:48Speaker 2: that's half. Half of men under 50 in the U.S.
- 19:52Speaker 2: have an account on a digital sportsbook. So yeah, it's prevalent.
- 19:55Speaker 2: You watch NFL, and it's kind of built into the
- 20:00Speaker 2: way that the commentators talk about the game now. It's
- 20:03Speaker 2: generally unavoidable, I would say. And I think that there's
- 20:07Speaker 2: a growing... betting fatigue among the broader population. And we're
- 20:12Speaker 2: starting to see that show up in rising tax rates
- 20:15Speaker 2: in some states that have legal sports betting and a
- 20:17Speaker 2: general questioning of whether state governments should have done this.
- 20:23Speaker 2: But the problem is legalizing gambling is a great way
- 20:28Speaker 2: to raise state revenues and get more money into the
- 20:32Speaker 2: coffers of a state without raising taxes.
- 20:36Speaker 1: Oh, does, does Kalshi, does Kalshi and Fanjul and all
- 20:39Speaker 1: them actually provide state tax revenue?
- 20:42Speaker 2: Yeah, the sports books do. The problem is for states
- 20:45Speaker 2: is that the prediction markets don't because they're federally regulated,
- 20:48Speaker 2: so they don't pay state taxes. Um, but you know,
- 20:53Speaker 2: if a state is like, well, I kind of, you know, Ohio,
- 20:56Speaker 2: for example, governor Mike DeWine, I think he's still the
- 20:59Speaker 2: governor has, yeah, cause the election's coming anyway. Governor Mike
- 21:02Speaker 2: DeWine has called his decision to, you know, legalize sports
- 21:05Speaker 2: betting in Ohio to sign that bill into law one
- 21:08Speaker 2: of the greatest mistakes of his, you know, 50-year political career.
- 21:12Speaker 2: He has said that he regrets it deeply. But the
- 21:16Speaker 2: problem is all of that tax revenue that comes from
- 21:18Speaker 2: sports betting is now funding things like state pension funds
- 21:21Speaker 2: and infrastructure. And so once the state is seeing that money,
- 21:25Speaker 2: it's very hard to then walk that back because they're
- 21:28Speaker 2: putting it to use, you know.
- 21:30Speaker 1: It's kind of like data centers, data center construction. I
- 21:33Speaker 1: don't know. There's all sorts of weird things that are
- 21:35Speaker 1: happening with that as well. I don't want to get
- 21:37Speaker 1: into because I'm already pissed off enough already.
- 21:39Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 21:40Speaker 1: By the way, I was correct. It was a ProPublica
- 21:43Speaker 1: story by Jake Pearson, which I'll link in the notes,
- 21:46Speaker 1: about how he blew $ 1, 800 in one night by chasing
- 21:49Speaker 1: glasses with bigger beds. And then the next day he
- 21:51Speaker 1: got invited to audition for its VIP program.
- 21:54Speaker 2: Truly evil.
- 21:55Speaker 1: I see there's nothing other than actually evil. And I
- 22:00Speaker 1: don't know. I know that casinos did the same thing.
- 22:02Speaker 1: I'm not defending them, but it's, I don't know. There
- 22:04Speaker 1: are also big signs that say gambling problems. I find
- 22:07Speaker 1: this whole thing just kind of repulsive and it's the
- 22:09Speaker 1: America didn't need more gambling. While we are on the
- 22:26Speaker 1: subject of problem gambling.
- 22:28Speaker 2: You have a little story.
- 22:29Speaker 1: You're working on. I don't mean little in the small way.
- 22:31Speaker 1: I mean, it's going to be very interesting that you're
- 22:34Speaker 1: working on that will be out by the time this
- 22:35Speaker 1: goes out, just to be clear.
- 22:37Speaker 2: Indeed, yes. I am working on a story publishing, hopefully
- 22:40Speaker 2: today as we're talking, about the National Council on Problem Gambling.
- 22:45Speaker 2: This is the largest nonprofit dedicated to mitigating problem gambling,
- 22:51Speaker 2: gambling addiction harm, advocating at a federal level for more
- 22:56Speaker 2: funding for gambling addiction issues. such and such. They're the
- 22:59Speaker 2: main voice advocating for gambling addiction in the United States.
- 23:03Speaker 2: And over the past, since January 2025, their organization has
- 23:09Speaker 2: been going through a lot of turmoil, to put it gently.
- 23:13Speaker 2: So the way that your viewers are probably most familiar
- 23:16Speaker 2: with the National Council on Problem Gambling is they used
- 23:19Speaker 2: to operate 1-800-GAMBLER. So when you watch a gambling advertisement
- 23:25Speaker 2: Right now at the bottom, you'll see, you know, gambling problem,
- 23:28Speaker 2: question mark, call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. So last year when, so, okay,
- 23:37Speaker 2: I'll just, I'll give you the whole, there's a lot here.
- 23:38Speaker 2: So I'll give you. Yeah, please, please. So the 1-800-GAMBLER,
- 23:44Speaker 2: the phone number is owned, the rights to it are
- 23:47Speaker 2: owned by a affiliate organization of the NCPG, National Council
- 23:52Speaker 2: on Problem Gambling Association. in New Jersey. So it's a
- 23:55Speaker 2: New Jersey affiliate of the NCPG that owns 1-800-GAMBLER. And
- 24:00Speaker 2: from 2021 or so, they were licensing the rights to
- 24:05Speaker 2: operate 1-800-GAMBLER to the NCPG. And the NCPG got like
- 24:08Speaker 2: a $ 6 million donation from the NFL to basically modernize
- 24:13Speaker 2: the problem gambling helpline system.
- 24:15Speaker 1: How did they modernize it?
- 24:17Speaker 2: Yeah, they basically, you know, That's a great question. They
- 24:22Speaker 2: put more focus on data collection. So there was a
- 24:26Speaker 2: question about, you know, you call the number and instead
- 24:29Speaker 2: of getting help right away, you're being asked survey questions.
- 24:32Speaker 2: That's something that I found in my reporting was happening.
- 24:35Speaker 2: And basically, there were questions about whether or not individual
- 24:41Speaker 2: call centers in individual states were up to snuff, as
- 24:45Speaker 2: it were, for the NCPG. So the NCPG decided that in... Nevada,
- 24:51Speaker 2: the Nevada call center taking calls from, you know, area
- 24:55Speaker 2: codes in Texas, Nevada, and, oh, I'm sorry, forgive me,
- 24:59Speaker 2: the New Mexico call center, you know, whether or not
- 25:02Speaker 2: it was providing high quality care to people dialing 1-800-GAMBLER.
- 25:07Speaker 2: And one of the things that was happening at the
- 25:09Speaker 2: New Mexico call center run by, you know, just a
- 25:12Speaker 2: handful of people, there's really not a lot of people
- 25:14Speaker 2: that work in problem gambling. They had a Navajo speakers
- 25:19Speaker 2: online at all times because the Navajo Nation is in
- 25:22Speaker 2: New Mexico. You know, Native Americans have a higher rate
- 25:26Speaker 2: of gambling problems than the rest of the population. And
- 25:29Speaker 2: they would get a lot of calls from Navajo Nation,
- 25:31Speaker 2: you know, seeking to speak to Navajo speakers, work with them,
- 25:34Speaker 2: et cetera, administer therapy help. And the NCPG made the
- 25:39Speaker 2: decision to reroute calls away from the New Mexico call center,
- 25:45Speaker 2: you know, basically with very little explanation. And this led
- 25:48Speaker 2: to a number of calls being dropped, a number of
- 25:51Speaker 2: Navajo speakers not getting help in a timely manner, calls
- 25:54Speaker 2: getting transferred back to New Mexico in the middle of
- 25:56Speaker 2: the night. Something similar happened in Florida, where the Florida
- 26:00Speaker 2: call centers were not up to snuff in the view
- 26:04Speaker 2: of the NCPG, and Florida was rerouted away. So New
- 26:08Speaker 2: Jersey was getting wind of all of this and was like,
- 26:11Speaker 2: all right, guys, we need to exercise more control over 1-800-GAMBLER,
- 26:15Speaker 2: you guys are getting... You're being a little too overzealous
- 26:19Speaker 2: with what you're doing. And the NCPG freaked out. There
- 26:23Speaker 2: was a legal battle sparked between the NCPG and the
- 26:29Speaker 2: New Jersey Council. And what happened is eventually the NCPG
- 26:33Speaker 2: lost control of 1-800-GAMBLER. So after spending $ 6 million from
- 26:37Speaker 2: the NFL and putting all this effort and money into
- 26:41Speaker 2: upgrading the system, they lost it all.
- 26:44Speaker 1: And.
- 26:45Speaker 2: One of the things that happened when they were modernizing
- 26:47Speaker 2: the hotline is they worked with a lot of gambling
- 26:51Speaker 2: firms to get it included into all of the ads.
- 26:55Speaker 2: So all of these gambling operators, your DraftKings, your MGMs,
- 26:57Speaker 2: et cetera, had 1-800-GAMBLER in their advertisements. And then all
- 27:01Speaker 2: of a sudden, the organization that was operating it lost
- 27:04Speaker 2: control of it. So the operators are like, wait, what
- 27:07Speaker 2: are we doing? Are we promoting the right resource? Basically, again,
- 27:10Speaker 2: cutting into the way that service was happening. And then
- 27:15Speaker 2: in January, the NCPG hires Heather Maurer, the new executive
- 27:22Speaker 2: director of the NCPG. She has a reputation as an
- 27:25Speaker 2: effective fundraiser, but she has no prior experience in problem gambling.
- 27:31Speaker 2: And then in April, she tells board members that there
- 27:36Speaker 2: is a potential new donor to the organization. One of
- 27:39Speaker 2: the roles of a board of directors at a nonprofit
- 27:43Speaker 2: is to vet you know, corporate partnerships, talk about donations,
- 27:47Speaker 2: the terms, et cetera. And so for that reason, it
- 27:50Speaker 2: would be normal to have a board meeting. What wasn't
- 27:52Speaker 2: normal is that before the meeting could begin, Heather Moore
- 27:57Speaker 2: insisted that everybody sign an NDA.
- 28:00Speaker 1: Just before the meeting.
- 28:02Speaker 2: Just before the meeting. And that had never been done before.
- 28:04Speaker 2: That's very normal. Everyone needs to sign a non-disclosure agreement
- 28:07Speaker 2: before I can tell you about this potential new partner. Great. Okay, fine.
- 28:12Speaker 2: Everyone signs. And then Heather Moore reveals, okay, it's a
- 28:16Speaker 2: $ 2 million donation, second largest in National Council on Problem
- 28:19Speaker 2: Gambling history, and the potential donor is Kalshi, the prediction market.
- 28:24Speaker 2: So this raises a lot of red flags pretty much immediately.
- 28:27Speaker 2: A number of donors to the NCPG are in lawsuits
- 28:33Speaker 2: with Kalshi. A number of them have competing business interests.
- 28:37Speaker 2: And Kalshi, as we were talking about earlier, being regulated
- 28:40Speaker 2: by the feds, doesn't have the kind of consumer protections
- 28:43Speaker 2: that are built into the regulations that govern sports books
- 28:47Speaker 2: at the state levels. So there's a question of whether
- 28:50Speaker 2: or not Kalshi is like in alignment with the NCPG's mission.
- 28:54Speaker 2: So all of these questions are coming up at the
- 28:56Speaker 2: board meeting. And Morris says, you know, well, unfortunately, we
- 28:59Speaker 2: can't do anything about that, because I actually already signed
- 29:02Speaker 2: the deal with Kalshi. It's too late. Okay. And then
- 29:06Speaker 2: like two weeks later, News comes out and it basically,
- 29:10Speaker 2: you know, drops like a bombshell in the, you know,
- 29:13Speaker 2: gambling addiction advocacy community. I talked to this guy, Mark Lefkowitz.
- 29:17Speaker 2: He's been involved with the NCPG since the late 80s.
- 29:20Speaker 2: And he said, you know, the NCPG taking Cal Street's
- 29:23Speaker 2: money is like, quote, a national council on teenage sex
- 29:26Speaker 2: abuse taking money from Jeffrey Epstein, end quote.
- 29:29Speaker 1: Hell yeah.
- 29:32Speaker 2: People are not happy. People are not happy about this donation.
- 29:37Speaker 2: And then, you know, a bunch of other stuff at
- 29:40Speaker 2: the NCPG starts going down. You know, the woman who
- 29:45Speaker 2: is the director of programs for the NCPG, her name
- 29:49Speaker 2: is Jamie Costello. she resigned after, you know, four years.
- 29:55Speaker 2: She was the longest running staff member, you know, and
- 29:58Speaker 2: she was overseeing all the helpline operations. So she had
- 30:02Speaker 2: a very important job at the NCPG and, you know,
- 30:04Speaker 2: their staff was already spread pretty thin. So she put
- 30:06Speaker 2: her three weeks in and, you know, it wasn't connected
- 30:09Speaker 2: to the Kalshi donation. She told me, you know, quote,
- 30:12Speaker 2: I hold myself to things like respect and compassion and open, uncomfortable,
- 30:15Speaker 2: transparent communication. And that just wasn't what I was experiencing
- 30:19Speaker 2: as a staff member, end quote. So she resigns and
- 30:23Speaker 2: then gives three weeks notice on a Monday and Tuesday
- 30:27Speaker 2: morning she gets an email. It's her last day. You're done.
- 30:32Speaker 2: And she gets cut out of her systems. So any
- 30:35Speaker 2: assistance that she could have given to her staff members
- 30:37Speaker 2: to help continue to run the National Problem Gambling Helpline,
- 30:40Speaker 2: which is like the widest known addiction resource in the country,
- 30:45Speaker 2: is now lost. And so there's a lot of turmoil
- 30:47Speaker 2: going on there. And then that was on Tuesday. By Saturday,
- 30:51Speaker 2: Heather Moore turns in her resignation to the board as well,
- 30:56Speaker 2: after fewer than 10 months on the job. So, you know,
- 30:59Speaker 2: amid all of this, a bunch of donors to the
- 31:02Speaker 2: NCPG have been pulling out. The gambling regulators in Ohio
- 31:07Speaker 2: and Michigan, the problem gambling councils in Nevada and Washington
- 31:13Speaker 2: all pulled out of the NCPG after decades-long relationships. Basically,
- 31:19Speaker 2: The upshot is that at a time when gambling addiction
- 31:23Speaker 2: and gambling participation are on the rise, because remember, they're
- 31:26Speaker 2: tied together, the main organization that advocates at a federal
- 31:32Speaker 2: level for there to be federal funding for gambling addiction
- 31:36Speaker 2: and research, all of that stuff, they are in complete disarray.
- 31:41Speaker 1: And there's no one else to pick up the slack, really.
- 31:44Speaker 2: Pretty much, yeah. There's no one else that's necessarily... seen
- 31:49Speaker 2: as kind of the top person, the top voice. And so, yeah,
- 31:54Speaker 2: it's a very, I think, you know, I hope that
- 31:56Speaker 2: your listeners go on and read the story because, you know,
- 31:59Speaker 2: it's quite a, like a step-by-step retelling of what's been
- 32:02Speaker 2: going on. But yeah, I mean, it's pretty concerning for
- 32:06Speaker 2: a lot of advocates and people that work in the
- 32:08Speaker 2: problem gambling space because this organization, which for the past,
- 32:11Speaker 2: you know, since the 70s has been the primary org um,
- 32:15Speaker 2: you know, coordinating response to rising levels of gambling addiction
- 32:18Speaker 2: is now, um, you know, in the wind as it were.
- 32:22Speaker 2: All right.
- 32:23Speaker 1: So I just want to repeat this email me. If
- 32:25Speaker 1: you hear any gambling ads on this show, anything like that,
- 32:28Speaker 1: I want to hear when I'm off the show, fuck
- 32:29Speaker 1: these people.
- 32:30Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 32:31Speaker 1: I find that I didn't think that things would have
- 32:34Speaker 1: improved since we last talked, but the idea of the
- 32:37Speaker 1: main gambling addiction site being fucked over, uh, not cited.
- 32:43Speaker 2: Sorry.
- 32:44Speaker 1: The idea of the main gambling helpline being basically destroyed
- 32:48Speaker 1: and the organization behind it is extremely grim. Is there
- 32:51Speaker 1: any effort to make any of this illegal, though? Is
- 32:54Speaker 1: there any efforts to try and bring this down as
- 32:57Speaker 1: we wrap up here?
- 32:59Speaker 2: Honestly, not really. I mean, it makes so much money, Ed.
- 33:04Speaker 2: That's the thing.
- 33:05Speaker 1: How much money does it make in comparison to the
- 33:07Speaker 1: other industries?
- 33:09Speaker 2: How much money does the gambling industry make?
- 33:11Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, specifically the prediction markets and such.
- 33:15Speaker 2: Well, prediction markets, they don't have as great of revenues
- 33:19Speaker 2: as the sports books. I don't have those numbers right
- 33:23Speaker 2: in front of me for the comparison.
- 33:25Speaker 1: But I mean, even with the online sports books, the
- 33:28Speaker 1: DraftKings and the FanDuel and such.
- 33:30Speaker 2: Yeah, they're making a lot. I mean, suffice it to
- 33:33Speaker 2: say that their margins are very good because they are
- 33:36Speaker 2: selling a product that is very easy to sell. it's
- 33:39Speaker 2: easy to sell and get people into gambling because it
- 33:44Speaker 2: makes your brain feel great. People that were selling cigarettes
- 33:48Speaker 2: did not exactly have a very difficult job because people
- 33:50Speaker 2: were addicted to cigarettes. And the main way that people
- 33:54Speaker 2: engage with gambling these days, online sports betting, is very frictionless.
- 33:59Speaker 2: It used to be that you would go to the
- 34:01Speaker 2: horse track and there were a dozen races in a
- 34:05Speaker 2: single day. And all of your gambling, the highs and
- 34:08Speaker 2: the lows of it, were spread out throughout the course
- 34:11Speaker 2: of a day. Now, within a single quarter of a
- 34:14Speaker 2: football game, you can be placing dozens of bets every minute.
- 34:18Speaker 2: And it's in your phone. Everyone has a casino in
- 34:21Speaker 2: their pocket these days. And as I say, there is
- 34:25Speaker 2: less and less ability for the people who want to
- 34:28Speaker 2: do good and protect people who are being harmed by
- 34:31Speaker 2: this product to actually step in and make things happen.
- 34:35Speaker 1: Is there anything that people can do? I'm trying to
- 34:38Speaker 1: find some way through. Are there organizations that are worth
- 34:42Speaker 1: donating to? Jesus Christ.
- 34:44Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I can make that kind
- 34:46Speaker 2: of recommendation, but I would just say that everyone... Here's
- 34:52Speaker 2: my one thing. If you have a friend who ever
- 34:54Speaker 2: says to you, oh, I lost X amount of money,
- 34:57Speaker 2: so I have to keep betting to win it back,
- 34:59Speaker 2: You need to have a conversation with them right then
- 35:01Speaker 2: and there. That's called chasing losses. That's one of the
- 35:04Speaker 2: strongest predictors of gambling-related harm. And, you know, gambling addiction,
- 35:10Speaker 2: I know you keep searching for a silver lining here, Ed,
- 35:12Speaker 2: but I'm going to just keep bombarding you with depressing statistics.
- 35:15Speaker 2: Sounds good. Gambling disorder, you know, is one of the
- 35:20Speaker 2: hardest addictions to necessarily spot. There's no urine test you
- 35:23Speaker 2: can take that shows you've been spinning a roulette all night, right?
- 35:26Speaker 2: There's no track marks on your arm. People can hide
- 35:29Speaker 2: their financials from their families. But the difference is that,
- 35:36Speaker 2: you know, gambling addiction is one of the most dangerous.
- 35:39Speaker 2: If you have a gambling disorder, there's a 20% chance
- 35:42Speaker 2: that you'll attempt suicide in your lifetime. That's the highest
- 35:45Speaker 2: of nearly any mental health disorder. It's got a ton
- 35:47Speaker 2: of comorbidities. You're more likely to have a substance use disorder, depression, anxiety.
- 35:52Speaker 2: It's associated with homelessness, crime, you know, financial desperation, child neglect,
- 35:58Speaker 2: domestic abuse, all of this stuff. And, um, you know, again,
- 36:02Speaker 2: there's no federal funding. There's no federal funding for gambling, um,
- 36:08Speaker 2: addiction research. Um, none, zero, uh, compared to.
- 36:13Speaker 1: I'm just going to say, then I think the thing
- 36:15Speaker 1: you have to do is if you have a friend
- 36:17Speaker 1: who has a gambling addiction, do not try and just
- 36:20Speaker 1: morally attack them. That's the one thing I'll say. I've
- 36:22Speaker 1: known a few people who have had that in Vegas.
- 36:24Speaker 1: It's like, be there and listen to them and try
- 36:26Speaker 1: and work out what it is they're trying to feel
- 36:28Speaker 1: and why they're trying to feel that. I think it's
- 36:30Speaker 1: the best I can say.
- 36:32Speaker 2: Nobody starts drinking because they think they're going to become
- 36:36Speaker 2: an alcoholic. Or because they're having a great time. Because
- 36:39Speaker 2: they're having a great time. And I think that there
- 36:42Speaker 2: is a kind of notion that gambling addiction is a
- 36:47Speaker 2: moral failing. And if you were only responsible enough, you
- 36:50Speaker 2: wouldn't have a gambling addiction. But this idea of responsible gambling,
- 36:55Speaker 2: that's been pushed a lot by the industry because you'll
- 36:58Speaker 2: note that puts the onus on the consumer to be
- 37:01Speaker 2: responsible rather than on the corporation that's selling the addictive
- 37:05Speaker 2: product to do so in a more responsible or better way.
- 37:10Speaker 2: So this idea that individual consumers have the power to
- 37:14Speaker 2: stop themselves when they begin to experience addictive behaviors, it's
- 37:18Speaker 2: just incorrect. And I think hopefully as it becomes... more widespread,
- 37:23Speaker 2: which is very unfortunate. Hopefully one of the positives is
- 37:26Speaker 2: that is that there's more understanding of the fact that
- 37:29Speaker 2: this is just brain chemistry. People can't help themselves. And so,
- 37:34Speaker 2: you know, we need to be there for them and understand,
- 37:37Speaker 2: you know, what they're going through and not moralize it.
- 37:39Speaker 1: Hey, I like that as an ending point. Nick, where
- 37:42Speaker 1: can people find you?
- 37:45Speaker 2: You can find me on barons.com, B-A-R-R-O-N-S. Or if you're
- 37:49Speaker 2: in New York City, you can pick up a copy
- 37:51Speaker 2: of our printed issue out on newsstands every saturday every.
- 37:55Speaker 1: Week hell yeah and you can find me on better
- 37:58Speaker 1: offline.com and google.com slash poison that's where you find me
- 38:02Speaker 1: now slash poison all right you've been listening to better
- 38:05Speaker 1: offline we're back with a monologue this week cheers Thank
- 38:16Speaker 1: you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer
- 38:18Speaker 1: of the Better Offline theme song is Matt Osowski. You
- 38:21Speaker 1: can check out more of his music and audio projects
- 38:23Speaker 1: at mattosowski.com. M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I dot com. You can email me at
- 38:31Speaker 1: ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast
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- 38:46Speaker 1: you so much for listening.
- 38:48Speaker 2: Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media.
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