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College Football Week 7 BEST BETS | I See the SEC · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Your palm and a hole in your chest. Black coffee
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: on the felt, man, you look like a mess. Three-team
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: parlay turned to dust in your head. Now you stare
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: at the chips like they made you this mad. But
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: the glass down, baby. Look at me now. Hold on.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Not tonight.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Not now. Hold on.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Let me pull you out.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: That fella fights hard. But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: We're going to get into it. I think I'm being
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: maybe too selective.
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: There are going to be some opinions that I have
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: that are like the last games that I cut from
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: my card here.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give out four plays here.
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: As you can see by the title, there's going to
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: be a lot of SEC in that mix. But I'm
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: going to talk about the games that I usually talk about,
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: all the ranked games.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: We have a lot of ranked versus ranked matchups.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: I'll hit all the TV games, try to do this
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: in under two and a half hours, which usually seems impossible.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: And we skipped the card tonight, even though I felt
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: like I had some pretty good opinions tonight. I think
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: I was right about all three of the football game
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: sides and maybe not right about the hockey, though.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: And the baseball game didn't happen. It got rained out tonight. So,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: all right. College football, man. Hopefully people can see the screen.
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: I got this new layout going on, so I don't
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: know if it's going to be more difficult to actually
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: see what I have going on here.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe I have to zoom in a
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: little bit more here now. Maybe that'll help a little bit.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: People can let me know or I'll watch a little
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: bit of this afterwards to see if it actually looks
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: all right.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: But we'll get into it now. We'll start with the
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: noontime games as always. Fox Sports, Fox, excuse me, has
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: one of the biggest games of the day. Debatably the biggest.
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: Number four, Ohio State at number five, Indiana. A lot
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: of the power ratings guys still have Ohio State as
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: the actual number one team in the country. And I
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: don't really have much of a disagreement with that. They're
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: definitely up there. It's Basically, these power ratings guys have them,
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame, Georgia is up there.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I think at this point, Alabama is still not really
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: that far behind.
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: Ohio State is getting docked in the rankings just because
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: they have that one one-point loss at Texas, and they
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: were winning most of that game.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: We're not talking about a bad Ohio State team here.
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: We're also talking about a game where this is a
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: revenge game because this is the rematch of the Big
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: Ten Championship last year. We know Indiana won that game.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: It was a close, low-scoring game. Then they went on
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: to win the entire thing, win the championships. This is
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: a big motivational spot for Ohio State, big revenge game.
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: And the odds figures are telling you Ohio State's actually
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: the better team here as they're laying three points despite
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: being on the road here, or laying three and a
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: half maybe. It looks like it's three pretty much across
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: the board here. 68% of tickets, 80% of.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: The cash on Ohio State.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: So the real money looks like it is kind of
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: indicating towards Ohio State, even though to me it seemed
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: like the public was– Maybe going to kind of be
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: leaning that way, too, but I'm not so sure. Or
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: maybe not heavily enough to consider them to really be
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: a public side or anything, because I think the public
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: might look at this and think, well, Indiana won the
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: championship last year.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: All right. And Indiana is still undefeated. Right.
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: And Ohio State has one loss and Indiana's getting points
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: at home. And these teams are ranked pretty much the same.
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: So that then has me kind of thinking, well, maybe
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: the public is actually going to kind of like Indiana
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: in this game. All that being said, I think I
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: kind of lean towards Ohio State just because the oddsmakers
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: are telling you what to think, basically, that they're the
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: better team, despite what the records say and everything else.
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: And I don't believe Indiana's facing a very difficult schedule
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: so far, if I'm not mistaken. They're undefeated, but their
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: most difficult game was last week, right, against Nebraska. I
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: guess you could make the argument that maybe they'll refocus
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: after that. Maybe they almost got tripped up at Nebraska
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: last week because they were looking ahead to this Ohio
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: State game.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Maybe you could argue that. They got caught in a
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: look-ahead spot there.
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: But I don't know, man, because Indiana didn't play well
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: against Northwestern a couple weeks before that either, and there
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: wasn't really much of an explanation for why they were
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: that bad in that game.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: So I don't know.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: I'm still not exactly sold. Yes, they won their most
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: difficult game so far against Nebraska. Ohio State's still a
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: different animal, though. Although, yes, I usually talk about how
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: a big favorite like Indiana was in that game, like
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: a nine and a half point favorite. A lot of
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: times they will refocus in their next game, but it's
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: not like they need any more reason to focus on
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: Ohio State, right? And for Ohio State, they had a
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: much easier game last week, at least. They cruised past Maryland.
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: We got Maryland right on the show. Maryland covered the
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: number in that game, believe it or not. It was
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: a huge spread in that game, so that was one
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: of the winners I gave out on the show last week.
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: Ohio State, Basically, all that's going to do is just
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: continue their momentum through. And Ohio State, again, they've faced
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: some more difficult schedules so far. They had a road
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: game against Iowa where they crushed them. They had a
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: road game at Texas, which is really difficult and probably
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: should have won that game. So, I'll lean Ohio State
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: in this one. I think the under probably makes sense
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: in this game as well. The money is indicating towards
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: the under. It's a 50.5. That number actually seems kind
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: of high given that you're looking at two teams that
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: have strong defenses here, man.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: So.
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: To me, it does seem like it's going to be
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: a bit of a low-scoring game here, and usually that
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: is the case with these high-profile games. It becomes like
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: a slugfest. Usually there's defensive intensity. The focus is on defense.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: Sometimes the offenses start a little bit slow, don't want
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: to make mistakes early in the game, et cetera. All right,
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: next game up is Florida at number seven, Texas, on
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: ABC at noon.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: This will be one of the best bets on the show.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: And we are going to be on Florida plus the
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: points here, plus 11.5 here against Texas.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Texas is more of a defensive team, man.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: Even though, yes, Texas does have the better defense here,
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: you're asking the team with the better defense to win
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: by a huge margin here, and that's not typically something
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: I like to do. I like to take the better
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: defense when they're getting points. Florida, I mean, their offense
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: is very capable.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: We know this. They have the better offense out of
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: these two teams.
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: Normally, yeah, I prefer the better defense over the better offense,
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: but again, not when laying points like this and not
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: in a spot like this. We actually faded Texas last
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: week against Oklahoma, and I thought it wasn't that good
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: of a spot for them. And yes, I did use
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: the argument that they might be looking ahead to Florida
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: after that game. That was a big game against Oklahoma
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: for sure because it's the Red River rivalry game. But
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: I made the argument they were coming off a big
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: game against Tennessee and that Florida was ranked at the time.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: They had that big game on deck against Florida.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: But now, I'm not so sure, man.
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: They might actually look past Florida here now that Florida
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: hasn't looked good recently and they've dropped from the rankings.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: So opinions... could change really quickly. Like the public's opinions
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: can change. What a team might think about another team
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: that is one of their upcoming opponents might change too.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: And even though Texas was the favorite against Oklahoma and
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: they actually did outplay Oklahoma in that game, I still
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: think that they're coming off. I consider this to be
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: them coming off a big game here. So I think
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: this is going to be possibly a hangover spot from that.
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: Even though I normally say, yeah, when a favorite doesn't
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: do well, they tend to bounce back. I don't think
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: that's going to be the case here with Texas because
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: that was a big game. It's a physical game against
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: a really good Oklahoma defense, punishing defense. Now Texas is
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: coming up with that, and they took their first loss
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: of the season. And I usually talk about when a
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: team takes their first loss of the season, that a
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: lot of times will hang them over into the next
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: game too because they're just not used to it. The
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: later you get into the season with an undefeated record,
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: the more difficult I think it is to overcome that
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: first loss and get right back up off the mat
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: after that.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: So I think that's going to be difficult.
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: I think they might not fully focus on a Florida
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: team that looked really.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Bad last week.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: And Texas does have a huge game on deck against
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: Ole Miss. Ole Miss is still ranked and playing really well.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: So there is the potential that maybe Texas does fall
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: into a sandwich spot in this game. The clincher for me, though,
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: is not only just that Texas is– in what looks
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: like maybe they're in a sandwich spot here and coming
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: off that big game, even though, yes, I know, I
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: will say again, I agree, they did outplay Oklahoma in
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: that game. We still got it right on the show, okay? Oklahoma,
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: I still think they were the right side to cover,
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: maybe not to win outright, but we got the cover
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: and the Moneyline sprinkle right on the show there.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: But the thing that clinches this for me is that Florida...
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: They look awful. They looked awful in their last two games, man.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: They were cruising through the season. They looked great when
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: they caught Ole Miss at a really good time. Ole
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: Miss was coming up that huge upset of their former coach,
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin, or huge win, I should say, over their
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: former coach.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin.
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: It was a mild upset. I think Ole Miss was
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: just in a really bad spot after that. Florida caught
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: them in a good time. Then Florida was in a
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: bad spot after that because they were then the ones
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: coming off the huge game. They had to go all
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: the way up to Missouri. That was a bad spot
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: for Florida.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: They got caught.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: Now, I wasn't sure that Florida would actually bounce back
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: completely right away from that. I thought they'd do better
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: than getting annihilated by South Carolina, but I thought Florida
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: would not cover against South Carolina. Because I still thought, well,
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: they just took their first loss of the season. As
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: I just said, that can hang you over into the
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: next game. Plus, Florida had this big game against Texas
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: on deck. So I thought that kind of fell into
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a sandwich category. So I didn't
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: like Florida in either of their last two games. And indeed,
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: they lost both of them. But now I think this
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: is the time that they bounce back, dude, because they're
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: coming off just a hideous loss, this 10.5-point favorites in
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: this game against South Carolina.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Usually a team is going to bounce back.
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: When they come off a loss is a big favorite
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: like that in Florida, they were ranked eighth in the country.
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: After they beat Ole miss, they fell to 16 after
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: losing to Missouri. And now they've fallen completely out of
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: the rankings due to this one bad game. So again,
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: I think these rankings makers are just kind of overreacting
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: a little bit. Like I think Florida is still a
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: team that probably belongs in the top 25. And part
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: of the reason they lost this game by the score
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: that they did three turnovers, man, they were minus three
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: in turnovers. That made this result look misleading. Um, It
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: should have been a closer game at the very least.
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: I'm not saying Florida definitely should have won or anything
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: like that, but it was a close game statistically, and
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: Florida shot themselves in the foot with many, many mistakes
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: in that game. So you're not going to usually win
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: if you are minus three in turnovers, man, and that's
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: one of the main reasons why the final score was
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: what it was. So we will take Florida here. I
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: think they're in a bounce-back spot. I think the spot
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: for Texas is particularly difficult here. And that they just
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: might not have full focus, might overlook Florida a little bit.
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: We got 52% of the tickets on Texas right now,
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: 51% of the cash on Florida.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Not a huge.
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: Disparity there, but I still think it's the right play.
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: I think the market read will probably wind up supporting
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: it in the end when we look tomorrow.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we'll take Florida plus the points in that one.
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: All right, let's keep going, man. Uh, see if I
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: can do this. I feel like I'm like rushing already though.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: We'll see if we can do this faster.
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: ESPN at noon, number 16, Mississippi state at number 22 LSU.
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: I think the first thing you might notice about this
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: is that, well, LSU is ranked lower than Mississippi state yet.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: LSU is a 17 and a half point favorite in
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: this game. The odds makers are telling you what you
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: need to know, man. Um, I'm not going to necessarily
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: come in and want to actually put my money on
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: laying that many points with LSU, but the oddsmakers are
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: telling you LSU is the considerably better team here, especially
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: on defense they are. LSU is the way better defense here,
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: and I think the offenses are somewhat comparable. Again, there's
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: a reason why the oddsmakers have put up a 17.5
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: on this. They're not trying to give money away, and
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: when you see a lower ranked team like this laying
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: that many points, you should listen to what the oddsmakers
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: are saying, because they have They're the ones that have
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: all the money at stake.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: The books, I should say, have the money at stake.
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: The odds makers make the odds for them, but I
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: kind of lump them all in into the same category.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: As far as the schedule is concerned, Mississippi State is
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: coming off their first loss.
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: I believe they actually went into a bye after that,
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: if I'm not mistaken. They are coming out of a bye.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: The way I handle byes is normally I would say
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: that when a team goes into the bye on a
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: bad note, they tend to use that bye to fix things.
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: and bounce back, so the bye actually helps the team
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: that went in on a bad note. I'm not so sure, though,
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: for Mississippi State, because that last game they played going
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: into the bye, they played Alabama, and that's a game
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: you get up emotionally for, and when you get knocked
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: back down to earth like that, that can send you
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: spiraling a little bit, and like I said, when it's
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: your first loss of the season, sometimes that can have
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: a hangover effect, and it's possible it does last through
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: a bye here, so I don't exactly love this for
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State here. For LSU, they're coming off a really
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: bad loss in their last game against Kentucky, and that's
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: why they got knocked down so far in the rankings.
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: Before that, their only other loss was that pretty understandable
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: one at Ole Miss, which, you know, Ole Miss, like, really,
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: really got up to play the coach that abandoned them,
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin. LSU last time out losing in overtime to Kentucky.
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: LSU was a big favorite here on the road. Ten-and-a-half
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: point favorite. Well, nine-and-a-half, I guess, when the game went off.
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: But like I usually talk about, when a team– does
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: poorly as a big favorite like that.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: They do tend to bounce back.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: And maybe LSU, maybe they were looking ahead because they
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: knew they had a ranked matchup with Mississippi State next.
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: And I believe, yeah, Kentucky was not ranked at the
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: time going into that game, even though I think Kentucky's
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: been in and out of the rankings all season. But
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: LSU maybe got a little bit caught here. LSU also
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: made some mistakes here. They did outgain Kentucky a little
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: bit in the game. They outplayed them slightly in the game,
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: but made a couple of mistakes and wound up losing
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: the game in overtime. So I think it is actually
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: a bounce-back spot for LSU after that. And even though
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State does have the rest edge, I kind of
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: question what they're going to be like coming out of
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: the bye just because they took that loss, that first
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: loss of the season, going into it, which I don't
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: necessarily love. So if you force me to give an
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: opinion on the side on this, I would lay the
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: points with LSU. It is up to 17.5, though, and
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: it looks like it opened 10.5, so I'm not exactly
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: sure why the number moved that much.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: Does Mississippi State have a significant injury or something? I
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: better figure that out. 69% of the tickets are on
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State, though, so the public looks like they're on
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State, and I warn about public underdogs, man.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: That's a real red flag to me. I like fading
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: the public in general because.
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: usually like, you know, the odds makers just kind of,
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: they tend to be okay with taking extra money on
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: those public sides. And usually the sides that they know
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: are going to be public, you tend to not be
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: getting value, at least in the number by playing those sides.
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: So generally I think you want to fade them. I mean,
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: not a hard and fast rule, but more often than
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: not you do. But when it's an underdog, that's more
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: of a red flag to me because it's like, oh,
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: well the public actually wants to put their money on
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: the lesser team here. That's, Not really where you want
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: to be, in my opinion. So I do like LSU here.
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: I want to figure out, like, is there an injury
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: here for Mississippi State? It's hard to figure it out, like,
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: looking at the rosters and whatever here because they don't, like,
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: give you the statuses. Kamario Taylor is the quarterback for
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State here, and he's having a good season. But
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: if he's out, then that might be why. Yeah, so
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: that's why. Taylor and Bothwell, they're running back. They're both
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: going to be out for this game. So maybe that
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: changes some things a little bit.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Did Taylor play in their last game
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: against Alabama? He did, right?
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: He probably got injured in that game. Yeah, so that's
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: another thing to consider here. So I will also not
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: be laying the points with LSU because it is an
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: injured player spot for Mississippi State. And I think that
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: that actually is a positive for betting on that team
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: because when a team, I know it sounds counterintuitive, but
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: when a team loses their starting quarterback like that, they
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: usually have a bigger effort.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Next time out, okay?
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: And also, the bye will actually help Mississippi State in
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: that regard because their backup quarterback actually has extra time
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: to practice with the first team and learn the plays
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: and stuff, you know what I mean? So, that actually
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: will be beneficial in Mississippi State a little bit, but
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: The other reason why you want to play on that team,
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: just the first game where the injured player is happening,
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: that injured quarterback, is because the line overreacts. You can
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: see that it has. It moves seven points just because
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: Taylor is out. I don't know how much of a
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: downgrade it really is to their backup. It's kind of
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: hard to say, but you'll get line value at least
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: when you look towards the team that has the injured player,
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: plus you will be playing on a team that might
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: have some extra effort, extra motivation, knowing they have to
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: try to compensate for that injured player. All that being said,
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: I'm still slightly leaning LSU in that game, but I
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: don't really want to do it. The injured player theory
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: also works better in the NFL than it does in college.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: It works the best in NFL and NBA when it's
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: like a real star player, so I'll point all that out.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: All right, next up is CW at 12 at noon.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Virginia at number 24 SMU.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: SMU, I believe they're coming out of a bye. Am
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: I right about this? I always got to look at
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: the schedules, man, to make sure what I'm talking about. Yes,
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: they went into a bye. They beat Boston College last
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: time out. SMU doesn't really have an impressive resume so far, man,
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: but what I will say is that Going into a
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: bye on a win streak is usually not a good thing.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: So usually it disrupts your momentum.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: You think of the bye as always a good thing
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: because you get rest, but I think it's not necessarily
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: a good thing if you're on that win streak because
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: it might bust your winning momentum.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: However, with SMU, they didn't play that well.
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: At home against Boston College, they were like three touchdown
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: favorites in that game, and they barely won. They only
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: won by nine, so that would counter what I'm saying
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: a little bit. I would say that that means maybe
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: they didn't go into the bye on a good note,
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: And the game before that they also didn't cover against
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: Missouri State. Both games at home, big favorites. They didn't
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: look that good in either of those games. So I
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: will counter it by saying that, well, maybe because they
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: actually didn't play that well in those two wins, maybe
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: they will actually use the bye to fix some things.
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: And I don't really see them overlooking a Virginia team
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: that at least was really good last year and still
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: has a pretty good record this year. But I think
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: Virginia is going to be focused as well because they're
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: coming off a game against Syracuse where they were– Pretty
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: big favorites at home, and they almost lost to Syracuse.
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: So I think that will refocus Virginia as well. Virginia
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: was a 14-point favorite in that game. Although I talked
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: about it, I think the line moved a little bit
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: because Syracuse went to the back.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Quarterback.
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: But their starting quarterback was awful. So I thought it
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: was actually an upgrade for Syracuse.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: And they almost pulled off the upset here. But for Virginia.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: They might bounce back after a bad performance like this.
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: One thing that I have concerns about, though, Syracuse actually
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: dominated this game yardage-wise.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of a problem.
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: If you like Virginia, if you look at the underlying
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: metrics here, they did not play well. against Syracuse that's
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: not good when you see a team get dominated statistically
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: by a team that's supposed to be way inferior to
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: them so this game is really hard for me to
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: figure out like I see positives and negatives on both
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: sides here the money has come in on the SMU
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: side they open 7.5 and they're already 9.5 teetering on 10.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: That would be a key number of 10 so if
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: you like SMU.
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: You gotta try to get the 9.5 and not let
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: that thing get to 10 because 10 is a key
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: number of course in football, but we have 68% of tickets,
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: 94% of the cash on SMU, I guess I will
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: lean to SMU, I'll go more with the fact that, well,
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: SMU went into the bye not actually playing that well,
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: so maybe the rest will actually help them here, plus
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: Virginia was actually really not good statistically in that game
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: against Syracuse, so kind of a red flag there, so
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: I'll lean SMU slightly there. Still also a little bit
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: of a weird spot for an ACC team to have
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: to go over and play in Dallas. You know, they're
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: still not totally used to that type of travel. So,
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Next game
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: is Northwestern, who has entered the rankings at number 25
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: at Michigan State on Peacock at noon. Whenever a team
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: like this that hasn't been ranked for a while enters
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: the rankings, I always kind of want to look to
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: fade that team because I think it puts a target
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: on their back, and I think maybe they get a
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: little bit overconfident after that happens, although Northwestern's coming up
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: just a cakewalk game against Ball State.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: They won easily. They didn't even cover, but they still
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: won easily.
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: That was a bad spot for Northwestern because they were
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: coming up that huge win in primetime against Penn State,
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: and that was on the heels of Northwestern almost beating Indiana.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: So I think they were in a hangover spot, whatever
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: you want to call it.
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: I think they just didn't have focus against a bad
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: Ball State team.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Now the question is, will Northwestern focus against Michigan State?
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: Northwestern's only road game so far was against Indiana. They
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: played really well, but you know they got up for
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: that game. Michigan State might be a team that they
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: might actually overlook a little bit more, although this game
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: is not surrounded by any big games for Northwestern. Their
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: game up next is Rutgers, so it's not exactly a
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: bad spot for Northwestern here.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: For Michigan State, though, they're on a four-game losing streak.
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: Lost to Illinois last week, not a good loss for
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: Michigan State. Michigan State is not playing well, but I'm
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: probably going to lean to them plus the points here.
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: I just think that the stock is probably just a
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: little bit too high on Northwestern now entering the rankings.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Northwestern keeps looking good with these big blowout wins.
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: Michigan State's got a bunch of losses in a row,
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: so absolutely nobody's going to be on Michigan State here.
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: If I was going to play the game, I probably
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: would just take the points here. with Michigan State. Northwestern
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: has 54% of tickets, 61% of the cash on them.
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: So it looks like the money is kind of indicating
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: in their direction, but I'm not so sure about that
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: because they opened 9.5 and they're already down to 7.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: And it's a low total, by the way.
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: It's gone up a little bit to 49.5, but that's
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: still a pretty low total. So like I always say,
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: when you have a low total, I think it's better
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: to take the points because if it's going to be
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: a low-scoring game, it's easier for the underdog to cover
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: and get within that number because points are going to
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: be more at a premium. There will just be fewer
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: of them in the game. So each point is worth
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: a little bit more in a case like that. I'd
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: lean towards Michigan State there plus the seven. Hopefully you
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: can get a seven on that if you do play it,
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: but obviously I'm not recommending that.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: As a play or anything even close to it.
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: The only game I really have that strong of an
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: opinion on so far is the one I gave out
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: a play on already. All right, Cincinnati and West Virginia
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: is also at noon on TNT.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: There are always way too many noon games, man.
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: West Virginia, they got blown out by Arizona in their
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: last game.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Did West Virginia have a bye after that? I think
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: they did. No, they didn't. That was last week. What
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: am I thinking of then? No, that was last week,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I guess.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: West Virginia was at home, and man, this West Virginia defense, yeah,
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: they're not doing well. That's what I'll say about them.
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: They look pretty bad, losing three games in a row.
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: Their win against Virginia doesn't look as good now. Yeah,
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: West Virginia still has not won in conference play. Now
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: they got Cincinnati coming in. I think both teams may
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: get up for this. West Virginia coming off some bad
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: games here. These teams don't really like each other, I
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: don't think, and they're in the same geographic area. So
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: I think these teams kind of have a little bit
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: of a, I don't want to say a rivalry necessarily,
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: but like a little bit of a thing going on. Cincinnati, though,
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: they had a really bad game in their last game.
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: They also got blown out by Arizona in their last game.
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati didn't put up like any offense in that game.
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: I think the Cincinnati offense is actually not particularly good,
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: but they had a bye. So Cincinnati does have rest here.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: They're coming out of a bye. They did go into
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: the bye on a bad note. They got blown out
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: by Arizona. But my question is, are they going to
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: use that bye to refocus or are they going to
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: be hung over still because that was their first loss
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: of the season? That's what you got to kind of
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: figure out. And that was a tricky spot for them.
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: I liked Arizona in that game. I'm kind of pissed
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: I didn't put it on my card or anything. But yeah,
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know if their first loss is going to
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: hang them over or if they're going to bounce back.
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: having that buy in here and having that bad game
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: going into the buy. The other thing you do have
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: to worry about with Cincinnati is, is there going to
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: be a look ahead here to Texas Tech?
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say probably not.
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: I think it is more likely they probably do refocus
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: here and show up for this game against West Virginia.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: That doesn't necessarily mean I want Cincinnati though.
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: And in fact, I probably don't because West Virginia has
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: the lesser record here, right? Like Cincinnati is four and
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: one West Virginia is three and three yet West Virginia
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: is favored in this game. So that's something you got
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: to take note of, man. When you see it, it's
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: like a pick-the-winner price here. The public, you would think,
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: would be leaning a little bit towards, oh, give me
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: the team with the better record that's getting a point
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: and a half with Cincinnati, right? We do see 58%
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: of the tickets on West Virginia, though, but it looks
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: like the real money is on West Virginia. 69% of
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: the cash on them. Minus one and a half is
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: the price there. I'll agree with West Virginia just because my...
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: The decider for me on this is just that the
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: line looks really suspicious. Like, it looks too easy to
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: play Cincinnati in a pick-the-winner scenario. And the oddsmakers are
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: telling you that these teams are fairly closely matched, at
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: least here. So, typo, what's up, man? Wait, we don't
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: get to do gay stuff except on Wednesday? What?
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Why not? All right, well, I'll look forward to Wednesday then, man. Uh,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: it'll be a fun time. Do I get to, do
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I get to be your pecker checker? Is this the time?
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: I'm not even sure if this is the, if this
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: is the real typo or if it's a, an imposter,
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: another typo.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: I'll check your pecker though, man.
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: I'll make sure that, um, that it's, that it's, uh,
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: that it's all legit.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: Um, kansas at kansas state we have our kansas rivalry
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: game here i forget what the name of this rivalry
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: is uh this is on fox sports one at noon
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: i think kansas over the recent years considers themselves to
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: be the little brother oh it is you all right
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: can't tell in that uh profile picture there either because
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: it's just the back of your head i know you
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: do wear hats though um sometimes at least anyway um
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: kansas i think considers themselves to be a little brother
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: in this rivalry at this point even though usually the
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: state's team does in a lot of these rivalries and
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: in this case i don't think so because kansas state
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: just has had the better pedigree in football uh really
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: for mostly as long as i can remember pretty much
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: so i think kansas gets a little bit more up
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: for this particular matchup kansas is coming off getting blown
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: up by houston and or excuse me, Kansas State is
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: coming off getting blown out by Houston in their last game.
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: So they may be in a bounce-back spot here too.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Did they have a bye after that? Let me see. No,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: they did not. That was last week.
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Kansas State got annihilated by Houston, which maybe
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: isn't that great of a look.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Even though Houston's a decent team.
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: Houston's more of a defensive team, and the fact they
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: put up that many points against Kansas State, you know,
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: doesn't look that great for Kansas State.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: But still, that was the only time Kansas State got
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: blown out.
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: So far, although, yes, it was at home, which is
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: still pretty bad, but they may be in a bounce-back
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: mode after that.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe they were even looking ahead.
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, you wouldn't think they would look past Houston,
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: but this Kansas-Kansas State rivalry is pretty big on both sides.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Kansas... They're.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: Coming off getting blown out as well at Utah, but
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: that's actually not even that bad of a result, only
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: losing by 17 at Utah. Utah's a punishing physical team, man,
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: and Kansas had to go on the road and play
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: them in high elevation. That's not easy to do. Now
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: they at least come back to their home state for this,
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: and they're used to playing in Manhattan, Kansas, so I
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: don't know.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: What do we do with this game? I mean, it
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: looks like both teams are going to.
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: Be focused, so then it's just kind of a matter
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: of I don't know, maybe the clincher should just kind
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: of be the market read on this. Kansas State has
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: 60% of the tickets and 65% of the cash on them.
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: They dropped from 6.5 to 3.5, though, and I couldn't
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: exactly figure out why. Like, is Kansas State's quarterback injured,
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: Avery Johnson?
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know, let me see. I didn't think so,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: but maybe I'm wrong. Let me see. No, I don't
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: think he is. I have no idea.
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know why this line dropped from six and
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: a half to three and a half on Kansas State
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: here so I don't know that that's anybody's guess really
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: unless somebody has more information than I do this is
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: not going to be a game I will be recommending
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: at all but My lean would probably be slightly towards Kansas,
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: plus the points here. But again, I'm giving out opinions
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: just for the sake of it in a lot of
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: these games, so take it with a little bit of
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: a grain of salt. I mean, you can kind of
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: tell when I have a strong opinion and when I don't,
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: and that one is not particularly strong. It would just
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: be because I feel like they still have little brother
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: syndrome there, and that's pretty much it.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: But both teams are on blowout losses, so they should
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: both be focused.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Mrs.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Eaton Beaver, what's up? Nice parody account there. Do I
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: follow you? I don't even know. Who are you? Is
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: that Claire Foster out there? I have no idea. What's up?
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: Alright, the female version of Lemon Party, I believe. Pittsburgh
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: at Boston College, I will tell you, this one almost
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: made the cut for me. This is on ESPN2 at noon.
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: I like Boston College in this game. Pittsburgh, really tricky
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: spot for them because they were rolling along five wins
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: in a row. Took a loss last week in kind
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: of a high-profile game to Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick in North Carolina.
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: And if you remember, I talked about how that was
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: the first game without Heinzel, Pittsburgh's quarterback. He's out for
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: the year. He got injured in that huge game against
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: Virginia Tech. And I talked about how Pitt might have
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: been a little bit hungover coming off that big game
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: against Virginia Tech.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Like a letdown spot.
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: But I thought Pitt would still put in a big
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: effort against North Carolina because usually when your quarterback has
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: gone down, again, that's the injured player theory. And the
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: line dropped from like, Pitt was going to probably be
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: a touchdown favorite in that game. They dropped to like
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: a three and a half point favorite because they were
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: going from Heinzel to whoever the heck their backup quarterback is.
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: But it wasn't enough. The bad spot is what won
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: out there. Pitt's the hangover spot won out in North
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: Carolina was able to get the outright win there. But
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: now I think that kind of sends Pittsburgh into a
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: bad spot here because usually I talk about how after
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: you have that injured player theory spot, and if you
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: play well enough, which I think they kind of did
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: in a way, a lot of times you have a
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: bad spot in your next game. There's just a little
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: bit of kind of a letdown after that. And because
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: that was their first loss of the season, which, you know, Pittsburgh...
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: They're the type of team where to get into the playoffs,
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: they're going to have to win the ACC.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: And, you know, that's not out of the question.
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: They only have one loss here, but that losing Heinz
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: show was definitely a blow. So they might be, you know,
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: feeling like they might be in a little bit of
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: a negative mindset here.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: This is only going to be their second road game
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: of the season. It's not that easy to have to
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: go to Boston College and play there. A little bit
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: of a weird travel spot for a lot of the ACC,
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: although for Pittsburgh, it's maybe a little bit easier because
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: they're kind of in the Northeast anyway, and they're not
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: a team that's going to be that affected by cold
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: weather or anything like that. It's kind of cool and
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: a little bit rainy up here in Boston, by the way.
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: The kind of clincher for me with Boston College and
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: the reason this almost made the cut for me, Pittsburgh
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: has a huge look-ahead spot to number three Miami on deck.
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: That's a massive game against Miami. So this looks like
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: a tricky, tricky spot for Pittsburgh where they might get
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: caught here.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: The only reason I really don't want.
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: Boston College is because they're coming off a close couple
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: of games against Virginia Tech and SMU. And while maybe
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: that's a good thing that they play competitive against two
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: teams that were favored against them, To me, it means
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: that they might be a little bit hungover from that,
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: although BC is coming out of a bye, though. So
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: just like I said with SMU, you can kind of
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: take this one of two ways, but in the reverse, right?
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: Because you could say, well, Boston College went in on
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: a two-game losing streak, so maybe that means they went
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: into the bye on a bad note, and they'll use
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: that bye to fix things and get themselves back up
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: off the mat after that but maybe not because that
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: game was really big against SMU so maybe that hangover
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: can possibly last through the bye however I don't really
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: think that's going to be the case though I think
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: BC having the extra week to prepare I think they
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: might be able to put that SMU game aside a
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: little bit they're not going to overlook Pittsburgh who's still
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: one of the top teams in the ACC here so
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: BC I think has got to be the right side
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: in this game this one almost made my card The
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: money looks like it does agree with this. 57% of
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: tickets on Pittsburgh, 54% of the cash on Boston College.
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: The fact that the line has not moved off of
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: the six and a half should probably tell you something too.
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's favored by six and a half, but it's just
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: been sitting on that number below that key number seven, right?
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: So the odds makers seem like they're pretty comfortable with
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: taking Pittsburgh tickets here below that key number, and they
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: have not moved it to try to to try to
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: balance the market at all or anything like that. Also,
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: you're looking at a really low total here, 41 and
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: a half, 42 and a half. And again, I will
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: say taking the points with the underdog is usually what
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: you want to do when it's a low total. So
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: that would also have me looking to Boston College here.
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: And the money has come in on the under too.
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: It's knocked this total down by quite a bit. But again,
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: some of it is kind of the weather here. I
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: don't think it's really going to be that bad at
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: game time though. The weather was kind of bad today,
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: but I think most of the rain is going to
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: be gone here. for tomorrow, but it's going to be.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: A little bit crappy probably. Garrett, what's up? Big Toad.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I'm not that big really in any way that you
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: look at it. Look at it. Oh, that doesn't sound right. Anyway, yeah,
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: so I like BC.
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: Out of the games that I've not given out a
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: play on so far, BC I think is the best
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: lean out of all of those. CBS Sports at noon
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: has Florida Atlantic at Army. This is kind of a
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: tricky game, dude. Florida Atlantic looks pretty good right now
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: with a 4-1 record, but I don't know, man. I mean,
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: their schedule has not really been that tough. Their last
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: two games were both really easy, really weak opponents there.
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: They did get a pretty nice win against FIU, who
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: does have a good defense. And FIU was able to
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: beat Navy, although Navy made a huge comeback and almost
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: came back and won. But the good thing about the
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: fact that FIU played Navy is that they won't be
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: thrown off by facing the triple option again with Army
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: because FIU already saw it with Navy. So FAU will be,
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: at least they're comfortable with it to some extent. They'll
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: have already seen it before. Is that going to be
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: enough for FAU to do this in this game, though?
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, because, again, FAU at 4-1. FAU
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: is also coming out of a bye, by the way,
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: so I think that's a bad thing because they went
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: into that bye on a good note.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: They went into the bye on a four-game win streak.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: They smoked their last two opponents, which, again, were UL
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: Monroe and FCS Texas Southern, so really easy opponents to
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: beat there. I think FAU having that bye at that
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: point is actually pretty bad for them because I think
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: that can hurt their momentum. You don't want to go
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: into the bye off of two blowout wins. I think
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: it can kind of just kill your momentum coming into
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: this game. So that would have me looking possibly towards
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: Army a little bit here. Army is coming off a
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: game against Tulane in their last game where they scraped
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: bye and got a three-point win. That was last week,
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: so they are not coming off of a bye. But
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: they maybe regained some momentum, whatever, with that win against Tulane.
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: I'll lean Army, I think, if you're going to force
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: me to choose a side here. Also, Army has the
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: lesser record here at 3-2, and I believe they're favored.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Yes, they are.
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: They went down from 3 to about a 2-point favorite here, though,
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: but it looks like they are actually getting the money.
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: 63% of tickets, 93% of the cash on Army. Looks
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: like a fairly strong market read there towards Army, even
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: though there was an initial drop off of that key
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: number three for whatever reason. But maybe it was a
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: fake move just to try to get the better number
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: on Army because it looks like the real money is
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: coming in that way, and I do agree with it.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: So not a strong opinion, but yeah, I would lean
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: Army in that one. Garrett, yes, you're a fan of
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: the Tar Heels. I do not agree with that. I
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: like Duke in that game.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: Nope.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: Chapel Bill, not Belichick. Still not a good coach at all.
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: I'm not even sure that he's actually the one controlling
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: the coaching there at this point. Yeah, I mean, I'll
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: get to that game whenever it is here, but yeah,
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: I do not like North Carolina in that game at
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: all for a multitude of reasons. All right, if you
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: want me to talk about any of these other crap games,
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: I can, but this show already takes me a long time,
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: and I hit all the TV games at the very least,
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: so I skip some of the more minor espn plus
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: games whatever sorry to the mac i guess but whatever
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: um i'll hit some of them if i think there
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: are some interesting handicapping angles and of course if i
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: have an actual play on them i will well i
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: mean what do you want me to say i don't
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: like bill belichick uh in general but i i don't
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: think it's a good spot for them at all i
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: don't think they're going to beat duke um Even though
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: I don't think Duke is even that good, but no,
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: I don't like the spot. All right, ESPNU at noon
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: has Georgia State at James Madison in a Sunbelt battle here.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Georgia State has been playing pretty well. They're sort of right.
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: Behind James Madison in the Sunbelt East here, but... Georgia
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: State's faced a really easy schedule, pretty much, man. I mean,
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: their wins are against an FCS team, NCAA and T, Kennesaw,
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: Northern Illinois and Old Dominion. I mean, that's not exactly
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: an impressive resume. Going on the road to face James Madison,
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: this is going to be their most difficult game since
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: they went on the road to UCF, although they actually
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: did play pretty well in that game against UCF.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: All things considered, but UCF may have overlooked them.
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: For James Madison, they're coming off a pretty big game
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: against Georgia Southern. I think it was more of a
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: big game for Georgia Southern though, as I talked about
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: last night, I think when Georgia Southern played, I thought
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: they'd be in a hangover spot. JMU might kind of
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: bounce back after this because I think they might see
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: this as a close call because Georgia Southern's record's not
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: that good. JMU was actually a touchdown favorite in this
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: game on the road, and they didn't play that well.
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: Georgia Southern actually kind of outplayed them in this game
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: a little bit statistically, so it was not the greatest
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: game for JMU, and they snuck by. They maintained their
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: undefeated record here.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: Coming off a game like that, I think maybe the
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: lead here is actually towards James Madison in this one.
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: And they've had a little bit more of a difficult schedule,
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: I believe. JMU looks like they are getting the money here.
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: 65% of tickets, 76% of the cash on them, although
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: they opened up 11.5 and they already dropped down to 9.5
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: at some books. So it looks like you can get
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: it below that key number at 10. If you do
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: like James Madison, you can get it on the right
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: side of the key number there and actually probably lay 9.5
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: with it. James Madison did also beat Old Dominion in
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: their resume. They beat them on the road, but they
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: do have wins against Liberty and then a win at
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: San Diego state, but I know it's been a San
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: Diego state team.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: It's been dealing with a lot of problems. So I
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: So their resume is not really that impressive either, but yeah,
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: I think my lean in that game would be slightly
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: towards James Madison minus the points. They're not all underdogs
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: for me, man. Uh, Rutgers is that Maryland, this is, uh,
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: an ugly big 10 matchup. One of the ugliest big
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: 10 matchups. Um, Rutgers, uh, I think they're coming out
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: of a bye, I'm pretty sure.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Am I wrong about that?
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Hold on.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: I always forget, man. Yeah, they are.
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: So Rutgers went into the bye after getting blown out
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: by Indiana, so I think that'll help Rutgers. Having a
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: bye that they went into on a bad note. They
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: started the season 1-4. I think they might use that
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: bye to kind of fix some things. Going to Maryland
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: is not exactly a bad travel spot for Rutgers.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Going from New Jersey to Maryland.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: Maryland did play last week, and they lost by a
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: lot to Ohio State, but they did cover. We had
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: a win, like I said, with Maryland. on the show
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: plus the points there still that's a game that maryland
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: was going to get up for like effort wise you
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: know what i mean a big effort game against ohio
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: state they're coming off that while rutgers just didn't have
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: to play last week at all so i think this
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: the setup here is a little bit better for rutgers
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: i would lean rutgers in this one the money looks
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: like it's kind of indicating towards maryland although they have
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: 63 percent of tickets 77 percent of the cash on
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: them It almost looks too easy to fade Rutgers here, though, right? Like,
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: what's Maryland's record right now? Rutgers only has one win. Yeah,
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: Maryland at least has two. Both teams looking for their
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: first conference win, though.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, I mean, I don't know.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: It still, to me, looks a little bit too easy
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: to lay the 5.5 or whatever this is going to
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: be with Maryland here. The spot, to me, looks better
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: for Rutgers. I would lean towards Rutgers in that one.
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: I was going to talk about UMass Buffalo real quick
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: in these MAAC games, only because Buffalo just pulled off
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: a huge upset against Toledo on the road. I believe
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: Toledo was like an 18-point favorite in that game. This
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: Buffalo team is not really that good this year. At
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: least we don't think so. Maybe we could be wrong
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: about that. They did play pretty well against a decent
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: Western Michigan team the week before that, too.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: But now they're coming off two huge games.
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: That upset over Toledo was massive, because I think Toledo
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: is the best team in the MAAC, probably, power ratings-wise.
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: I think they'd be favored over every other team on
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: a neutral in the MAAC.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Buffalo.
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: Played well, but Toledo also really killed themselves in this game.
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: Toledo had three turnovers to Buffalo's zero, and they also
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: had 15 penalties in the game. So even though, yes,
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: Buffalo did actually win the statistical battle too, they dominated
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: possession and they won the yardage battle. I mean, Toledo
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: was just, they made so many mistakes in this game
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: between all the turnovers and penalties. That really helped Buffalo
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: pull off that upset there. So Buffalo's got to be
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: in a letdown spot after that. So I'd be looking
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: towards UMass in this game, even though I think UMass
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: was way overhyped after their 4-0 start.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: They're not really that good.
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: But UMass did play pretty well in their last game, too,
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: against a Miami, Ohio team that's not that bad. UMass
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: was a six-point home underdog in this game, and they
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: almost pulled off the upset. So I don't really want
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: UMass after almost pulling off an upset themselves.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: But this was more of a, you know, kind of.
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know, like a mid-tier type of potential upset here,
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: whereas Buffalo's was really, really massive. So I think UMass
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: does set up better after coming off this loss here.
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: They actually did play well. Like the game statistically was
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: pretty close. UMass won the yardage battle in that game.
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: So I think UMass might actually have a little bit
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: of a bounce back here, even though I have thought
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: they've been overrated like all season. The money's all coming
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: in at Buffalo in this game, but I just don't
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: understand it. I don't know if there's an injury going
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: on here or what because the line moved from three
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: and a half to seven. I don't know because I
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: don't follow the MAAC personnel very well, man.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: I apologize.
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: UMass has 63% of the tickets on them and Buffalo
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: 77% of the cash. I think the reason for UMass
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: being favored, or excuse me, the reason why the public
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: likes UMass is they're definitely not favored. UMass is not
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: a good team. But the reason why the public kind
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: of leans towards them here is because they have the
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: better record still, and because everybody's still remembering their huge
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: upset over Rutgers, and that's kind of what they're making
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: their name on here. But yeah, 63% of the tickets
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: are on UMass, 77% of the cash on Buffalo, but
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: I don't agree. There's no way that I would lay
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: the points, especially seven points, or seven and a half even,
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: with a low total of 42 and a half in
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: a spot like Buffalo is in. where they took advantage
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: of a ton of Toledo mistakes and pulled off that
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: massive upset.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: No way.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: I would lean towards UMass in that game, but obviously
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: I don't love it, though. UMass, again, coming off a
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: big performance themselves, and they're just not.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: That good of a team.
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: But I figured I would talk about that game just
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: because it was kind of interesting. ESPN at 3.30 p.m.,
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: Auburn at number one, Georgia.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Am I going to do it? Am I going to?
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: Pull myself back from the team that hurts me the
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: most in college football, Auburn. Do you know how many
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: times Auburn has failed to cover for me? in games
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: where they should have covered, including last week against Tennessee,
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: including last year against Georgia where there was that bad
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: call in the middle of the game and then things
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: unraveled and Auburn still probably should have covered last year
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: and didn't. I feel like there are just so many games,
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: like at least six or seven times where I played
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: Auburn over the last like three years and they should
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: have covered and didn't.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: They like never covered for me.
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: But don't worry, because I'm not going to put Auburn
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: on my card here, even though it is really tempting,
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: because Georgia, number one Georgia, by the way, they're coming
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: off their legitimizer game, man.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Georgia was kind of cruising through the season.
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: I think their best win up to that point, their
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: best win definitely up to that point was over Oklahoma. Actually,
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: pretty impressive that they put up that much offense against
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: a solid Oklahoma defense.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: But still, Oklahoma's not considered to be that good right now,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: so Georgia was.
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah, like they were cruising along, and they finally legitimized
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: themselves with that win over Alabama last week. Huge win,
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: and obviously it was also a win where Georgia kind
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: of got over the hump because I think they lost
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: eight straight regular.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Season games against Alabama.
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: Although, yes, they did win in the SEC Championship against
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: Alabama last year. But Alabama just seems to have had
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: the upper hand over them most of the time recently.
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: So that was a monster win for Georgia. You know,
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: people are going to talk about the call. I forget
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: what it was, actually. There was some bad call at
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: the end of that game that I think went against Alabama.
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: It was like a no-PI call, I think, that... Kind
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: of handed Georgia the win. But any way you look
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: at it, man, that's a monster win. That's Georgia's biggest
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: game of the season, pretty much. Playing Alabama and going
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: into Alabama and beating them in Tuscaloosa.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: This has got to be a letdown spot for Georgia here.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: And it's worse. It's a sandwich spot, even though they
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: have a bye coming up after this. So it's a sandwich.
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: Where the other piece of bread isn't quite on the
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: sandwich yet.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: But.
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: After they play this Auburn team, they might just look
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: right past. They got one of their other huge games
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: on deck.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: That's one of their biggest rivals, Florida, in the world's.
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: Biggest outdoor cocktail party or whatever the hell you're supposed
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: to call it now.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to be politically correct, though. So, yeah, Georgia.
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: Has this game sandwiched in between Alabama and Florida, basically,
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: except that there is a bye.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: Before the Florida game.
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: But it looks like a really bad spot for Georgia.
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: So what are you talking about, Toad? I thought you
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: said you weren't going to put Auburn on your card.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not.
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: And the only reason, besides the fact that Auburn hurts
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: me and they're my abuser in college football, the reason
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to do it is because Auburn's coming
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: off a big game themselves. They had to play in
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: Tennessee last week, and they should have at least covered, man.
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, that was a three-point game late in that game.
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: Tennessee got a late touchdown, and I was pissed. That
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: was two weeks ago, though, right? I was pissed, though, man,
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: because Auburn, yeah, that was two weeks ago. I had
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: Auburn to cover on the show.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: You know what?
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: I'm still not going to do it, but I forgot
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: Auburn did have a bye after that. So Auburn is
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: coming off a bye. So Auburn does have rest coming
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: into this game. So that does help the case for
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: Auburn a little bit more. But even so, they went
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: into the bye on what I consider to be kind
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: of a good note, playing well against Tennessee. So maybe
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: that will still linger a little bit. But all that
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: being said, I still think the only way to play
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: this game is Auburn. It is close to making the
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: cut for me. I like Auburn in this one. Georgia
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: is definitely the public side. 75% of the tickets, 79%
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Georgia.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: 19.5% is the number now.
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to get to 21% or
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: anything like that, the real key number there of 21%.
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: But the total is really low, 49.5%. So I like
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: taking points with a low total, as I keep saying.
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: Auburn's got to be the right side in that one,
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: plus the points. Very, very tempting to execute. add that
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: to my card. It might make my contest entry, because
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: I have to add a couple extra plays to that.
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: Hopefully I'm picking the right games to actually put on
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: my card, man. I feel like college football is just
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: this massive intake of information, and I don't want to
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: pick the wrong games.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: It pisses me off, because a lot of these leans
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: are going to come through. You know what I mean?
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: But the goal is to just profit, so that's the
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: goal here. But, yeah, I like Auburn plus the points there.
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: Low total means the points are going to be more
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: to premium.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Let's do it. NHS, what's up, man? Or NHSF? Yeah, correct. Correct.
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: Auburn had a bye last week. Yes, I was forgetting
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: about that. I forget about some things now. It's my
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: stroke brain. Nebraska, Oregon, I have a play in that game, actually,
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: which nobody's going to like that one, but I will
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: get to that eventually.
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: You know Aaron Ashby? He's the relief pitcher on the Brewers, right?
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: What's up, Zach? He's from Kansas City.
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: You actually played against him.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Did you get a hit off him? Did you get
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: to bat against him?
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: Did you hit a home run off Ashby?
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: There's no way, right?
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Was there an Andy Ashby, too? I feel like there was,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: but maybe I'm not remembering that correctly.
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: But, yeah, Ashby, if you're talking about the Brewers relief pitcher, yeah,
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's– He's been pitching pretty well in this
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: playoff run here. I'm getting accused on my short, by
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: the way, where all I said in my– because I'm
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: putting the shorts out there now.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Eat my shorts. All I said was that I thought
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: there would be.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: Some potential value finding maybe some spots in the World
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: Series to fade Milwaukee because they just look too good
• 50:57
  Speaker 4: right now.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: That's how you do it. That's how you bet. It's
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: like the stock market.
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: When the stock is too high on a team– You
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: get value potentially fading that team.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: People are in my comments, like, flipping out. Like, it's cope. Like,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: they think I'm a Dodger fan. Like, are you kidding me?
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: I fucking hate the Dodgers. I was rooting for the
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: Brewers in that series.
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: Like, all I'm saying is this is the way that
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: you need to handicap if you want to win.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Your buddy hit a home
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: run off him. You didn't get a hit off him.
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: Oh, man.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: How many times did you face him? You were 0-4.
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: You had a zero batting average off him. Did you
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: walk against him at all? Oh, man.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: All right, and we're into the 3.30 p.m. games here.
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: Next game up is going to be one of my plays, Alabama,
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: number six at number 14, Tennessee on ABC.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: And I know.
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: Tennessee is, you know, switching quarterbacks around and doing some
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: things here, but I don't think it's an injury thing.
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: I think they're just changing their quarterbacks, so they think
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: it's the better option. We're going to take Tennessee plus
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: eight here. This is a series where the home team
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: has– dominated recently. The home team is 5-0 in the
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: last five games in the series, straight up and against
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: the spread. So that's a good indicator for the home
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: team here. But you know what I'm about to say,
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: because we just talked about Alabama with that Georgia game.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: That was a huge game for both teams.
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: And now that's what Alabama's coming off of. I think
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: it's going to be a hangover spot for them. They
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: played two big games in a row, really.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: They blew out.
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State the game before that. I believe, do they
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: have a bye? I forget when the byes come in, man.
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: Do they have a bye before Georgia? They didn't, actually. So, yeah,
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: two weeks in a row, they played two big games here.
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: And that Georgia game was their first loss of the season. Again,
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: I'm going to point out that when you have your
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: first loss of the season, especially when it's in a massive,
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: high-profile game like that, a lot of times that will
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: knock you for a loop, man, and you'll essentially lose
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: the same game twice, and it'll hang you over into.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: The next game.
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: So I do not think this is a good spot
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: for Alabama, and people are going to be saying what
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: I was just saying. Oh, Alabama should have won this
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: game because of this and that and the bad missed
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: PI call and whatever. That's what Alabama's going to be
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: hearing all week. Like, yeah, we should have won this game.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: So I don't think that's good. Thinking that we should
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: have won this game, that's not a good thing because
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: it makes you... Think better of yourselves than you should be.
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: You should be saying we got to refocus here, guys.
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's going to be the case. But
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: the other component of this that I really like is
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: that Tennessee is coming off a bad game last week.
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: And you know that they were looking ahead to Alabama, man.
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: I talked about that game last week. It was only
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: Tennessee's second true road game of the season.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: They went to Arkansas.
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: I know Arkansas is not very good, but Tennessee had
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: to have been looking ahead, man, to this big game
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: against Alabama. I think Tennessee just thought they could go
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: through the motions, beat Arkansas, and they still won.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: But, oh, man, it was close. Tennessee was a– you
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: can see I got my pick right in that ESPN
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: pick-em game.
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: There you go. It wasn't on my card, though, unfortunately.
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: But yeah, Tennessee was the 13.5-point favorite in this game.
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: They did not cover, obviously, and they could have lost
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: this game. Arkansas was winning for a decent chunk of
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: the game here. The game was tied until Tennessee got
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: a touchdown in the final two minutes of the game
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: to escape with the win.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: And I talk about this.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: When a team escapes with a win and they.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Were a big favorite.
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: A lot of times they refocus and they bounce back
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: in the next game. And again, I think you can
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: explain why they didn't play well in this game. It
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: was because they were looking ahead to this Alabama game.
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: And that seems to be the case because Tennessee made
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: a bunch of mistakes here. They had three turnovers in
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: the game that obviously hurt their case in this game.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: But they actually won the game statistically by quite a bit.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: They out-yarded Arkansas by quite a bit in this game.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: So this game.
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: If you take away the turnovers, Tennessee won this game
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: by a little bit more than maybe what it looks
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: like on the scoreboard, I would say. Not really possession-wise, though,
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: but maybe the turnovers hurt that a little bit. But yeah,
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: what you have here is a team that I think
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: is in a hangover spot of a huge game, which
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: is Alabama, against a team that should be massively refocused.
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: Coming off a lackluster effort is a big favorite, so...
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: And now Tennessee is also in another angle I like
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: where they're going from being a huge favorite to now
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: being a sizable underdog. I like looking at teams that
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: shift roles like that. I like fading teams that do
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: the opposite, right? I like fading teams that go from
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: a big dog to a big favorite, but I like
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: playing on teams that go from being a big favorite
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: to a big dog, especially if the result was something
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: that helps the case of that team, right?
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: The result from the previous game, I mean.
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: Alabama, 63% of the tickets on them, 68% of the
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: cash right now, but I think they're going to be
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: a public side here. I think there's no doubt about that.
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're Alabama. They always get the name recognition.
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: People are not going to knock them much at all
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: for losing a really close, hard-fought game against Georgia. People
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: will probably knock Tennessee more for barely getting by Arkansas.
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: You're getting the 7.5 here. The total's dropped a bit here.
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: Money coming in on the under, it looks like. I
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: don't know if there's a weather concern here or what,
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: but the total's down to 50.5 here. The lower it gets,
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: I think the better. the case is for the dog
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: here and you know I mean Tennessee's defense hasn't been
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: that good over the last few years this year it
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: does look like it's improved their defense looks fairly good
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: this year so I think we're getting points at home
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: in a good spot with Tennessee and with at least
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: a decent defense on the side of Tennessee here so
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: we'll take Tennessee plus the eight or plus the seven
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: and a half I found like an eight that was
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: a straggler straggler whatever out there somewhere but Seven and
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: a half, there's almost no difference there. So get at
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: least the seven and a half there with them.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: There we go. All right. Zach, you were 0-2 with
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: a walk. You got a walk off of Ashby. There
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: you go. And a strikeout. There you go. Tennessee's fraudulent. Okay.
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: I'm just saying this spot is good. Is Tennessee as
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: good as a 5-1 team? Are they as good as
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: what they're ranked at?
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: I think Alabama is actually a little bit under-ranked. I
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: think Alabama is really good. But this is all about
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: the spot. It's a spot play. I just explained it.
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: This is what I do, man. I've done this for
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: like two decades. So it is a spot play. Again,
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: I gauge the human behavior here, which is maybe different
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: than what a lot of people are used to. But yeah,
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: you want to be contrarian to win money here too,
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: as I've been saying, because that's like sort of how
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: you beat the books. Like the books will always be
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: adjusting the numbers a bit towards where they know the
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: public is going to be. So typically you're not going
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: to be getting value on that side.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: So there's that too. silence. Dude, whatever. I'm on like
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: eight copies a day. What do you mean why?
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: It's to profit, to win money here. What are you
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: talking about? That's the whole goal here, man.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: And because this is just, you know, it's... What else
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: should I say?
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: I enjoy trying to solve the puzzle here, you know
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: what I mean, and get things correct.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: It's a rush just being right.
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: About things when you get things right, you know what
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: I mean? So, yeah, it's about the love of the game,
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: but it's also about the money. Missouri playing the team
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: that benched them last year. Oh, the Missouri... What are
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: we talking about? Who's Missouri's quarterback now? That is the
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: next game up, yes.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, you're right.
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is an interesting quarterback matchup. Yes, correct. I
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: almost forgot about that too. NHS, you're reminding me of
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: some things that I keep forgetting, but yes, you're correct.
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: So number 13, Missouri at number nine, Ole Miss, 3.30 p.m. Eastern,
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: SEC Network. Ole Miss is the favorite here, but they
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: are the higher ranked team too. I think they are
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: indeed the better team here. Although Missouri, I mean, they've
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: looked pretty good so far, but they're coming off... A
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: win over Texas A & M. I mean, we lost
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: with Texas.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: A & M. I'm not going to ignore my losses.
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we lost with Texas A & M last week.
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: I thought it was a good spot to fade Missouri
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: because they were coming up with a huge win over Florida.
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: They had this big game against Ole Miss on deck. Yeah,
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to tell you. A & M,
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: they're not playing well. Marcel Reed looks awful. I don't
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: know what else to say. Maybe Missouri's a little bit
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: better than we think, but yes, correct. Simmons, the quarterback
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: for Missouri. he was the quarterback for Ole Miss last year.
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: They replaced him with Trinidad Chambliss, who was still the
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: quarterback for Ole Miss this year. So yeah, that might
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: motivate Missouri a little bit here. Maybe they want to
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: kind of rally around Simmons, just feeling like, He was
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: the guy that was replaced. So he might want a
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: little bit of maybe revenge against Ole Miss for replacing him.
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: So maybe that's a little bit of a motivator. Maybe
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: his team will rally around him a little bit here.
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: But Missouri's coming off an easy game as well. It
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: was an easy win for them against Texas A & M,
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: so they're not coming off of anything big or anything.
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: Ole Miss is coming off of smoking Vandy. I mean,
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: that doesn't really matter a whole lot either. It might
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: matter for what I say about Vandy, but not really
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: for this game.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: Both teams... coming off kind of an easy win here,
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: so that's kind of a wash. Will Ole Miss look ahead, though?
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: Because Ole Miss has Texas on deck.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: You know, maybe there is the potential they overlook this
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: game a little bit with Texas on deck. I think
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: if either team is going to overlook this game at all,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: it would be more likely that Ole Miss does. And
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: Missouri only has Arkansas next, which I think that might
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: be a bigger game for Arkansas than for Missouri at
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: this point with those two teams that border each other. So, yeah,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think I'll probably lean Missouri in this one,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: but the money does not agree with it, at least
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 4: for now. I don't know if the market's going to
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: shift around by game time, but 51% of the tickets
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: are on Missouri. Looks like the actual money has been
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: coming in on Mississippi to some extent. 62% of the
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: cash there. Mississippi's around a 5.5, 6-point favorite.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss, I should say. Yeah, do what you want
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: with that info.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean slightly towards Missouri there, but I
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: don't have a good opinion on that game, really. You
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: like Mizzou. You like Notre Dame. And you like Boston College.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: I did already talk about it. I like Boston College
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: and their game. I did already talk about that. Missouri
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: is the better defense? Yeah, I mean, they might be.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: Ole Miss must have the better offense, though. Oh, I
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: don't even know how you pronounce it.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: Is it Kawhan?
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: Kawhan.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: Kevin? I was like, who's Kevin? What, Kavon? Kawan transferred
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: from Missouri.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: I don't know if that matters as much, but yeah,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: the quarterback situation is definitely interesting where you had... yeah,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: the guy that got replaced by the other guy now
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: gets to go up against him a year later, which is,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: it's a pretty crazy, uh, storyline in that game really. Uh,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: which I think actually, again, I think that favors Missouri
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: a little bit as far as where the motivation is there.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: I think the team might rally around Simmons there for
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: that reason. I think shambles is.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: The better quarterback though. Like there's a reason why Ole
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: Miss made that change.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: Um, you know, uh, these, you know, it's tough to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: even remember where all these quarterbacks are going. Cause it's
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: just this like quarterback carousel and, you know, Pribula for
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: Missouri is now where Virginia, I think, which I already
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: talked about Virginia earlier in the show.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: I think, yeah, it's all crazy.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: Uh, Arizona state at number 10, Texas tech, 3 30
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: PM on Fox. I need to get some water, man.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: I don't even have water up here. I got to
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: take a break at some point at about the midway
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: point here.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: We had the midway point. Let me see.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: Um, no um actually yeah we're kind of close usually
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: i do it before the evening games though we'll see
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: uh or well around the hour mark is always uh
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: is always good as well which is where i'm at
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: right now but i'll talk about this game because i
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: already started talking about it um i'll get through the
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: 330 games i guess maybe boston college is hosting pit
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: uh this week pit who's down to their backup quarterback
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: for the.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: But that's not the main reason. You can go back
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: and see my analysis on it. It's a situational.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: There are a lot of situational angles in that one
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: that line up on BC for me. That one almost
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: made my card. This game, not really though. Arizona State
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: at number 10 Texas Tech on Fox. Arizona State I
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: believe they played last week. They hosted Hawaii last week,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure. That was kind of a game that
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: I think they just kind of cruised through, got the
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: easy win. Hawaii just doesn't play well on the mainland, man,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: especially against power conference teams, as I've pointed out many times.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: Now Arizona State does have to go out on the road, though,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: for only a second time this year. The only other
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: time they did it was against Texas A & M.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: They lost that game pretty badly. They've only played two
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: real step-up games this year, if you want to call
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: it that, although they did play a game in Texas, London,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: I think this was, against Kansas. Not a true road game,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: but they played over in Europe against Kansas, so if
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: you want to call that a big game, fine. They
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: won that game, but there are other games that were big.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: They lost by a lot to Texas A & M
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: and Baylor, so their games against Texas schools have not
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: been good, and they're 0-1 in their true road game
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: so far. Now they're going on the road to Texas
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: Tech here. I don't know if Arizona State's necessarily going
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: to be able to compete here, but I don't think
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 4: Texas Tech is in a good situational spot, and I
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: don't like Texas Tech's resume either.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: Their only really good.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: Win is against Houston at home, and they barely got
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 4: by in that game. So Texas Tech really has not
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: proven themselves yet. And they had a bye, I think,
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 4: at a very inopportune time where they're sitting at 5-0.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: I think one of the worst things for you is
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: to have a bye when you're cruising and you're undefeated.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Because that bye might just wreck your momentum. You know
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: what I mean?
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: So I really don't like that for Texas Tech. So
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: that all being said, I think I'm going to lean
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 4: Arizona State here because I think this is a negative
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 4: buy situation for Texas Tech here, even though, again, you think, well,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: the rest is going to be a good thing. I
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: don't think so. When you're winning like that, you want
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: to keep going. You want to keep winning. And their
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: resume is really unimpressive. And, in fact, Arizona State, I
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: would say, has had the more difficult schedule so far.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: The money is agreeing with me on that with Arizona
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: State plus the points here. Texas Tech, 64% of the
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: tickets on them. I'm not convinced Texas Tech is nearly
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: as good as they were last year either. They just
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: haven't proven anything yet. And they have a different quarterback
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: this year as well because their quarterback from last year
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: got drafted.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: Morton got drafted. He's on the Patriots.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: So they're going with the guy who was his backup
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: last year, Hammond. And that's because they were going to
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: go with Sorsby from Cincinnati, but he's not allowed to
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: play because of gambling, I believe, so. That's why Texas
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: Tech is in the quarterback situation they're in. Anyway, 52%
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Arizona State here. You're getting above
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: the key number of 14 now. You're up to 15.5 now.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: And the total has gone up a little bit, but
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: it's still not that high of a total at 50.5.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, overall, I'd lean Arizona State plus the points there.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: Pretty big spread there, double digits. Big given that the
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: total's not really that high in that game either. So, yeah,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 4: I would take the points if I was going to
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: do anything with it. Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech on ACC.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: Excuse me, the ACC network at 3.30 p.m. The battle
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: of the techs. Georgia Tech is coming off an upset
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: win over Duke, which I'm kind of pissed I didn't
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: put that one on my card.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: And I think I didn't even put it in my
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: contest entry. I just, I don't know, man. I don't know.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: College football, there are just so many games.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: A lot of my opinions are going to wind up winning,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: and then I get pissed off because I didn't put
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: those on my card. But, of course, a lot of
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: them are going to lose, too. But, yeah, Georgia Tech
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: beat Duke last week. It was a nice upset win.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 4: I didn't like the spot for Duke, whatever the hell
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: the spot was.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: Let me see.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: Georgia Tech was coming out of a bye that they
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: went into, I think, on a bad note. Yeah, losing
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: to Stanford. Duke, I think, had gone into a bye
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: as well. Duke was one of those teams, just like
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: I said with Texas Tech. Duke had gone into a bye,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure, on a 4-0 note.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: And they hadn't really.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: Played anybody that good either. So I think Duke, yeah,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: that bye hurt them. Coming out of that bye was
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: Georgia Tech's bye, I think, was actually helpful. So Georgia
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 4: Tech was able to pull off the upset there. But
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: I don't like teams coming off upsets necessarily, even though
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: I don't think Georgia Tech will necessarily overlook the James Franklin,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: Virginia Tech Hokies here. And they've had an okay season
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: so far. But yeah, Georgia Tech, I don't love them
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: coming off an upset win, man. I never like teams
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: coming off an upset win, really. Virginia Tech, they're coming
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: off an upset loss where they went all the way
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: out to Cal and they lost to Cal's backup quarterback.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: But I pointed out multiple things about that game. Virginia
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: Tech was coming off their first loss of the season.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: It was a big primetime game against Pitt where they
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: lost on a missed field goal at the end. So
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: I thought it was a bad spot for Virginia Tech
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: coming off that game, having to go all the way cross-country.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: Play in what i think was a late night game
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: right against.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: Cal maybe it wasn't but still going all the way
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: out west not easy cal looks like they stepped up
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: their game with their backup quarterback in there uh cal
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: won outright um against the virginia tech team was like
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: a nine and a half point favorite but now what
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: you have here is virginia tech coming off a game
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: where they lost as a big favorite georgia tech's coming
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: off a win where they won as like a seven
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: point underdog so In a spot like that, I'm going
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: to lean to the team that lost as the favorite
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: because I think they're more likely to finally bounce back
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: or to bounce back after a game like that, whereas
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: Georgia Tech might be a little bit more hungover off
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: of their effort.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: There are some things I don't like about Virginia Tech here, though.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: Cross-country travel might not be necessarily that good. They also
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: have Clemson on deck, and that's turned into kind of
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: a big game, and Clemson has been playing reasonably well,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: and they got SMU after that, so... There is the
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: potential they don't take Georgia Tech totally seriously here. So
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: those are my concerns I would have with Virginia Tech.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: But I still lean Virginia Tech in this one. And
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: the money seems to agree with it. 51% of the
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: tickets are on Georgia Tech. 66% of the cash on
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: Virginia Tech. They're a 9, 9.5 point favorite in that game.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: That's what I would do if I was going to
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: play it.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points. Georgia Tech better in the
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: second half of the season?
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: Maybe. I knew they were going to take a step
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: down this year because they lost their star player, Haynes King,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: to the draft. He's not a guy that's easy to replace.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: That's what I got on that game. I lean to
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: laying the points with Virginia Tech in that one. Although,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: James Franklin....
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: Can't really trust that guy, although you can probably trust
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: him in a bounce-back spot like this in a game
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: that's not a big game. He loses big games, like
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 4: that game against Pitt. North Carolina, speaking of Pitt, North
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: Carolina at Duke on ESPN2 for Garrett here. You first
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: look at this game, and Duke is favored here. although
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: Duke does have the better record. But North Carolina, I mean,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: they're coming off the better performance, man. They just beat Pitt,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: and they played well against Notre Dame in the game
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: before that. And really, they played all right against Clemson
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: the game before that, too. So North Carolina looks pretty
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: good over the last three games, so that's kind of
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 4: the reason why I don't want them here. They're playing
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: another road game here. They're playing two straight road games,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: coming off upsetting Pitt, who had just entered the rankings.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 4: And remember, Pitt was down to their backup quarterback in
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 4: that game. Pitt was also coming off that big win
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: over Virginia Tech, though. So Pitt was in a bit
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: of a hangover spot, I thought, coming into that game.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: Although I laid off of it because Pitt was also
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: in the injured player theory spot, and I thought they
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: might step up their game with the injured quarterback there.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: Either way you look at it, though, North Carolina pulled
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: off a pretty nice upset there. It was a small upset, though,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: three and a half. Now they've got to flip it
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: right back out on the road, and they've got to
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: go play that Duke team that I just talked about.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: Duke just lost in an upset to Georgia Tech, man.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: So I think Duke might bounce back here. Coming off
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: a game like that against Georgia Tech, where, again, a
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 4: team that loses as a favorite, a fairly big favorite,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: I think they tend to bounce back after a game
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: like that. The issues I would have with it are
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: it was Duke's first loss of the season, so yes,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: I pointed out how that can hang you over into
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: the next game, and maybe it will. And they do
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: have a big primetime game on Friday against Virginia, which is,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: I believe, a rematch of the ACC championship last year,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: so maybe Duke does look ahead to that. But is
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: Duke really going to overlook North Carolina again? I don't
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: really think so. I mean, this is a rivalry game.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: I think both teams probably are going to show up here.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: Duke won that game in overtime against Virginia, by the way.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: So that game's going to be bigger for Virginia.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: Than it is for Duke. So maybe... I talked about
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: Virginia earlier in the show, right? Did I miss that? Yeah,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: Virginia's at SMU here. Well, I don't know. I don't
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: think Virginia's going to overlook SMU.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean, Virginia, there would be the potential
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: they might look ahead to that Duke game because Virginia's
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: going to have that Duke game circled because they lost the...
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: ACC championship to them last year. However, neither team made
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: the playoff, if I remember correctly, right? Even though Duke
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: won the conference, they wound up not in the playoff,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: if I'm not mistaken, right? Wait, who made the playoff
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 4: out of the ACC last year then?
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: Was it SMU? I don't even remember. Maybe it was.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: I don't remember, man.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, Miami did, right? Yeah, well, obviously Miami did.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: They made the championship.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe it was only Miami that made it then. Yeah,
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: The ACC down conference, that was a weird setup, weird
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: situation last year. Pitt, yeah, I think that was a
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: letdown spot, yeah, for Pitt in that game. I thought
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: they'd continue with their effort, possibly because of the injured quarterback,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: but apparently that did not happen.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: Anyway....
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: I'll lean to Duke in this one slightly, but, yeah,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, my opinion's not that strong on it, but
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean Duke, and North Carolina does look
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 4: like a dreaded public underdog here. You know, I'd say
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 4: that that's one of the biggest red flags when you're
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: looking at the market. 63% of the tickets are on
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: UNC and only 53% of the cash. If the public
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: doesn't even want the team that's supposed to win this game,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: which is Duke because they're favored, yeah, I mean, that's
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: a red flag to me. Public is on the Bill
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 4: Belichick train after what they've seen them do the last
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: couple of weeks. And I get it. Duke's resume is
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: not impressive. I understand that. North Carolina's faced a way
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: more difficult schedule. So, yeah, that's another reason I'll stay
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 4: away from this game. But, yeah, North Carolina, they're definitely
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: more battle-tested.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: I'll give you that.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: But I like Duke here. Duke's laying three now, it
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 4: looks like. So you can probably get the straight-up three
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: on Duke there if you do want to lay the
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 4: points with Duke in that one.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: Uh, CBS, uh, as we continue with the three 30 slate,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 4: Penn state at Michigan, two teams that have, uh, disappointed
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: this year, uh, Penn state, three losses in a row,
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: kind of looking like what they did last year where
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: they started out hot, but then they ran into teams
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 4: that were more competitive and they just started losing all
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: these games. Penn state, you know, I mean, they might
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: not get back up off the mat after this either.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: Cause they played a big game against USC last week,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: a big ranked matchup and Penn state was in that game.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 4: I thought they would win. I liked Penn state in
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 4: that game last week. Um, I thought Penn State was
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: going to be in a bounce-back spot after looking horrible
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 4: and having extra rest. Looking horrible in the Northwestern game,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, and having extra rest after that.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: Didn't happen.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: Penn State put in a good effort, and they could
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: have potentially won that game against USC.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: They didn't. Now they've got to go out on the road,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: play Michigan.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: Usually, I mean, you're not going to overlook Michigan, but still,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: can Penn State really maintain a huge effort like this
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: two games in a row like that? I'm not so
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: sure about that, man. For Michigan, I think the spot
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: does set up a little bit better for them because
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: they're coming off two straight losses. They had a tough
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: battle against an Iowa team that does look pretty legit,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 4: but then they lost kind of, it was an ugly loss.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: They lost on the road to Minnesota. You can kind
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: of explain what happened with Michigan there. They were coming
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: off that huge game against Iowa, so it was a
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: little bit of a I think hangover spot coming off
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: of that or whatever you want to call it. Going
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: into that game against Minnesota. They got caught, but now
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: Michigan's coming out of a bye, by the way. So
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: that's going to help Michigan even more here, in my opinion.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: They went into the bye on a bad note.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: Losing as a favorite to Minnesota, and it was an
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 4: explainable loss because it was a bad situation. Yeah, I
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: think Michigan will use this bye to get focus here.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: My only issue with Michigan here is that they might
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: still have a look ahead here because they got Indiana
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 4: on deck. There's no doubt that's a big game. You
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: know that you have them looming in the next game.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: And Penn State has not been playing well recently, so
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: it makes it a little bit easier to overlook a
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: game like this. But overall, I'm going to lean Michigan
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 4: in this game still overall. I think the spot is
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: better for them. The money doesn't seem to agree. Penn State,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: 69% of the tickets, 84% of the cash on them.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: Although you might be able to make the argument they
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: are a public underdog here, although it looks like more
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: of the money is coming in on them. Michigan is
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: a 6.5-point favorite.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: But it is a low total, 42.5.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: And, you know, I don't love laying points with low
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 4: totals like that either. You know, I give out an
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: opinion on all these games on the side. I would
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: lean towards Michigan in that game if I was going
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: to play it. And again, yeah, I mean, I wish
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 4: I did a little bit more with totals in these games.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: And I've given out some, like, total opinions on some
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: of the primetime games where I, you know, am able
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: to spend a little more time, like, focusing on them. But, yeah,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: it's just not exactly what I do. I just focus
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: on the sides here. On Northern Illinois at Wyoming... Do
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: I even want to talk about this game? I mean,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: it's on the CW. This is a horrible game. This
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: is such an ugly game. Wyoming, very, very putrid offensive team.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: They're coming off winning against San Jose State, which I
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 4: think was a primetime game on Friday or something, if
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: I remember correctly. So I guess they have an extra
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 4: day off after that.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: They won in overtime.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: Not exactly a big deal to beat San Jose State,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 4: even though I think it was technically an upset for
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: Wyoming there. But still, I mean, Northern Illinois is not
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: exactly a team you're really going to have full focus on.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 4: And it looks like Wyoming does have another Friday game
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: coming up against Air Force next. Northern Illinois hasn't won
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: a game yet on the season. I mean, they've had
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: a couple of games that were obviously games that they
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: were just going to get smoked against Iowa and Arizona.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 4: But they're coming off a bad game against Air Force.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: But I think maybe Northern Illinois is just not that
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: used to facing the triple option, whatever.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: I mean... Will they actually do better here? Maybe.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, nobody's going to want an 0-5 team, and
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: Wyoming's going to be laying points here, and you know
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 4: Wyoming's not a good offense. And they're laying seven, seven
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: and a half points, and the total here is like 41,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: 41 and a half. I'll lean to the underdog here,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: plus the points. Wyoming's got 84% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: the cash on them. Asking a pathetic offense like theirs
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 4: to cover like that, a number that's that big. I
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: know Northern Illinois is also pretty pathetic, but still.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: It just seems like a game where there's not going
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: to be a lot of scoring and every point's probably
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: going to matter. So yeah, I'd lean more towards Northern
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: Illinois in that one. I did lean towards them last
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: week though. And that definitely didn't happen. Uh, UNLV at
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: Air Force on CBS Sports is the last of the
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: 330 games I'll talk about because I'm going to skip
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: the ESPN plus games here. Except you could argue Toledo's
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 4: in a bounce back spot off of that, uh, horrible, uh,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: loss to Buffalo where they made a bunch of mistakes.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: They were huge favorites.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: I'll point that out that maybe Toledo might be the
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 4: right side against Eastern Michigan, but I don't know.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: Cause it looks like they're laying below a.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: Touchdown on the road and maybe it still looks too
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: easy to lay with Toledo, but whatever. Um, And because
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: I talked about it, your market read on that, the
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: money is coming in on Toledo, laying the points there.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: It has gone up from 4.5. It is probably going
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: to hit 7 there. So, yeah, I think Toledo probably
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: is the right side, and that one will bounce back.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: But anyway, UNLV and Air Force. UNLV is coming off
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: a big game, man, where they beat North Dakota State.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: North Dakota State was undefeated at the time.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: North Dakota State new to the FBS, and they were
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: looking like they were one of the big threats to UNLV.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: In the newly.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: reformed mountain well not reformed but the newly uh structured
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: mountain west let's say here uh unlv uh new mexico
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: is going to be the other threat against them in
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: the conference this year, I would say. But after UNLV
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: pulled off that nice win over North Dakota State in
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: a tough, low-scoring game, having to go back out on
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: the road and face a triple option attack in Air
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: Force 2, Might not be the greatest spot for them,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: although I know they face Air Force pretty much every year,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 4: so they're used to facing it. But still, they could
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: be in a letdown off of that game against North
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 4: Dakota State.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: So that would be my concern with UNLV.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: For Air Force here, Air Force just had an easy
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: win against Northern Illinois last time out. So I think
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: they're just kind of coasting into this game here. So
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: I like Air Force in this one. I think just
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: simply it's a letdown spot for UNLV. And they do
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: have to go into high elevation for this too. which
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 4: they do that once every two years or whatever, but
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 4: still the spot doesn't look good for UNLV here. The
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: high elevation I don't think is going to help them
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: at least. Although Air Force looks like they're a public side.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 4: 84% of the tickets and only 79% of the cash
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: on them, so the market read doesn't agree with me,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 4: but initially UNLV was favored 2.5% and the line flipped
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: to Air Force being a favorite at 1, 1.5% here. Yeah,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean Air Force. I don't know if
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 4: the public is really actually going to want Air Force.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 4: They have a little bit of a better record, I guess, overall, 4-1,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: just because UNLV took that loss to.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: Who did they lose?
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: UNLV had one... Actually, both their losses aren't that bad.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: Memphis and North Texas, those are capable teams.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, whatever.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: That's a game where it was tough to gauge where
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: the public was going to be. I thought the public
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: was going to be on UNLV in that game, but
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: And especially given what their track record of the last
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: few seasons has been.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, man. Whatever the case is, I'm
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: going to lean Air Force in that game anyway, though.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 4: All right, I'm going to take a break. I'll be back,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: and then we'll get into the evening games. There won't
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: be too many games left to talk about, but I
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 4: do have two more plays I'm going to give out,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 4: and I have a couple more games. At least one
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: more that I know almost made the cut for me,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 4: and hopefully my cutdowns are correct, and hopefully we're going
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: to get some wins with my plays that I actually have.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: I will be right back, so you can.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 4: You'll get my old intro again, and you'll get to
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: laugh at me while I'm gone for two minutes.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on an
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: 0-7 run over the last two days.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: After tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: 1-5.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: 0-4.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: I just have not had a good season, man. With weekends.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: Slump.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: March 8th?
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 4: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 4: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: years doing this.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: than potentially end it all.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 4: My intro always, you know, is, yeah, depressing, but with
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: a positive note at the end of the new intro,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 4: not the old one, I don't think. No, definitely not
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: the old one. All right, USA Network is where we're
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: going here now. I think 6 p.m. Washington State, Oregon State,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: the old Pac-2 rivalry, but now they're in the Pac-12
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: again now that it's reformed. Oregon State has looked really
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: good recently, and Washington State.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: Has looked absolutely terrible.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: So you know what I'm going to think about this game.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: I'm probably going to fade that center.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 4: Well, I'm not going to do it, but that would
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: be my opinion in this game is probably to fade that.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: This Oregon State team has been putting up a ton
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: of offense recently, They just smoked San Diego State, but
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: San Diego State's dealing with the mumps for weeks. They're
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 4: dealing with injuries all over the place. We can't really
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 4: put much weight into that win. You know, I mean,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: Washington State, this will be one game they do get
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: up for. Oregon State does have Fresno next, and Fresno's
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 4: been playing all right, I guess, so maybe a little
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: bit of a look ahead there.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: Although Oregon State actually does have a bye. before that.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: But Washington State, I mean, really the handicap here is
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 4: that Oregon State looks too good right now. No team
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: is ever as good as they look in their best game.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 4: No team is ever as bad as they look in
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: their worst game either. Washington State's had three straight losses.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: They've had a fairly difficult schedule, though, playing Washington, Kansas State, Arizona.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: You know, not that easy of a schedule. They lost
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 4: to Utah State last week on the road. They played
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: pretty competitively, though, and only lost in high elevation, only
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 4: lost by one in a primetime game against Utah State.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: But they'll get no credit for that. You know what
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: I mean?
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 4: Like a low-scoring, ugly game like that. I think they'll
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: at least get up for this.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: And I think they.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: Do have one extra day off compared to Oregon State
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: because I think Washington State played on Friday. Yeah, I
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: believe Oregon State played on Saturday. I mean, it's not
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: that big of a deal, but one extra day off,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 4: I think, for Washington State coming into this one. Yeah,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 4: Oregon State played on Saturday, yeah. I'll lean Washington State
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: just because I think that's just where the.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: Value is going to be.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 4: Oregon State's been smoking teams and putting up a ton
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 4: of offense. Washington State's been playing ugly games where they're
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 4: not putting up any offense. So I think taking the
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 4: points is the move in this game if you're really
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: going to play it, which I will not. But Oregon State,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: 84% of the tickets, they're going to be a public side,
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: but 95% of the cash as well. I mean, the
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: public isn't going to be that heavily involved in this game,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 4: but I think if they are going to play it,
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: they'll be on Oregon.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: State for sure.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 4: Uh, they're laying 18 and a half points totals in
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: the fifties, low fifties.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: So it's not extremely low, but it's not really that
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: high either. Um, yeah, I mean, I don't know.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: It would look too easy to me to play Oregon
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: state in that game though. So I'll lean Washington state,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 4: but not a strong opinion whatsoever on that one. Florida
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: state at number three, Miami. This is a big rivalry here. Um,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: You know, I mean, both teams are probably going to.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: Get up for this.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: This is on ESPN, 7 p.m. Miami has had the
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: upper hand over the last few seasons. We all know this, though. And,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: of course, they're number three in the country right now.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 4: I think power ratings-wise, if you look at, like, the
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: guys that actually make the power ratings, and they're usually
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: in line with basically what the oddsmakers are doing. I
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 4: think Miami's not really... quite that high at number three,
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: but I think they're somewhere in the top eight teams
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 4: or so. Miami has not really been battle-tested yet. That's
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: kind of the issue I have with them. Their resume
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: just doesn't impress me that much so far. They're coming
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: off crushing Clemson in their last game. Clemson's been okay,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: I guess, but Miami really doesn't have that real good
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: win to this point, so we still don't really know
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: who they are with Darian Mensah now as their quarterback,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: formerly of Duke. And Miami, what am I going to
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 4: say here? Miami just had a bye, and they're 5-0,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 4: and you know I think that's a negative. When a
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: team goes into the bye on a huge win streak
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 4: like this, yeah, you have an extra week to prepare
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: for this, but it's like, well, what do you do
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: when everything's working, you know? So I think that's a
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: negative for Miami. You don't want to have your momentum
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 4: disrupted like that.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: I think the.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: Spot sets up actually a lot better for Florida State
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: because they're coming off an ugly loss, which was a
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: win I gave out on the show last week with Louisville.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: I told you.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 4: When I handicapped that game, I thought Florida State looked
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: too good in smoking Virginia, and they had this huge
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 4: game on deck against Miami, massive game.
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: This is like Florida State's Super Bowl, basically. They're kind
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: of like the little brother here.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 4: Really, I think they probably kind of always have been
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 4: because Miami had that really good history in the 80s
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 4: into the 90s, whatever the hell it was.
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think this game, Florida State, this is
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: like their biggest game of the year pretty much. every
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: single year.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: So I think they're absolutely going to get up for it.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 4: They looked bad in that primetime game against Louisville last
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 4: week where I already told you I thought they were
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: basically in a sandwich spot in that game against Louisville.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 4: Louisville ran away with the game. We got the win
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: with it on the show. But this is the spot
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: where I think Florida State shows up and plays a
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 4: lot better.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: I like it. It's not going to make the cut
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: for me, but yeah, I like Florida State in this one. Miami,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: 83% of tickets, 84% of the cash.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 4: And of course, I mean against the spread. I'm not
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 4: saying that Florida State's definitely going to lose. I'm not
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: saying that Miami's definitely going to lose this game. I
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: don't think so. I mean, they're 20, 20 and a
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: half point favorites here. You might be able to get
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: a 21. If you like Florida State, I would just
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 4: wait because this is a night game and a 21
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 4: might show. in this game, you know, because Miami is
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: going to be the very public side, and it's a
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: big game, right?
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: It's on ESPN, right? Yeah, so it's a huge game.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 4: So the public is probably going to be getting involved
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: in this, and they'll be playing Miami.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, I would just wait, try to get the
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: three touchdowns.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 4: We're going to take Florida State, get the 21, and, yeah,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 4: that's what I would do in that game.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: I would take Florida State.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 4: I'd still lean that way even if it didn't hit 21,
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 4: but it's not on my card or anything. This next
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: game is, though, this ugly SEC game. I told you
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 4: I had a lot of SEC action here. Arkansas and Vandy,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: two winless SEC teams. Well, I still think we have
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: an angle to play this one, though. And that is,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 4: you know, we're actually going to lay the points in
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: this one with Vandy. I think nobody's going to want
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 4: to do that. The public doesn't tend to want to
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: lay points with Ugly teams, but I think that's the
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: way to go. The Osmakers are kind of telling you
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: something here that Arkansas is kind of not that good,
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: even though I've been talking about how maybe Arkansas is
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 4: not as bad as they looked early in the season
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 4: because they had some difficult games on their schedule here,
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 4: but The main component to this is really simple, though.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 4: Arkansas is coming up. That game I already talked about
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 4: earlier in the show against Tennessee. And for basically the
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: opposite reason that I'm going to be on Tennessee this week,
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 4: for the opposite reason of that, I'm going to fade Arkansas.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: And what's that reason? That was a huge game for Arkansas, man.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 4: And they seem to always get up for those games
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: against Tennessee. Arkansas was a double-digit favorite, and they almost
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 4: won the game.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: Or sort of.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: Tennessee scored late to win that game. It was a
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: tied game with a couple minutes left in the game.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 4: So a team like Arkansas coming off a huge performance
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: like that and falling just short as a Bing underdog,
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: I want no part of them in the next week.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 4: And in fact, I am going to fade them coming
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: off of a game like this. I think they're going
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 4: to be flat coming off of this game. And if
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: you look at the stats, like I said, Tennessee made
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 4: some mistakes in the game. The game wasn't what it
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: looked like on the scoreboard, really. Tennessee won the game
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: statistically by more than than what it looks like on
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: the scoreboard. So that's also a knock against Arkansas. They
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 4: actually weren't as good in that game as it looked
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: on the scoreboard. I think Arkansas is going to get
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: a lot of credit in the public's eyes. They're like,
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: oh my God, if Arkansas can almost beat Tennessee, then
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: of course they're going to be able to cover as
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 4: a six-point underdog against Vandy, right? And especially because look
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: at what Vandy did last week. They got absolutely annihilated
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: by Ole Miss last week.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: So who's going to want them? Okay, yeah, but I mean,
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is a good team. I mean.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you want? They got blown out by
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: a good team. Okay. I mean, it happens sometimes. It
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: is what it is.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 4: Vandy, if you look at this game, though, this was
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: not what it looked like on the scoreboard at all.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 4: That's the other thing that I'm looking at here as
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: far as this game. Vandy only got out gained by
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: whatever this is. 60-something yards in this game. They had
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 4: four turnovers in the game. That really, really hurt them
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 4: in this game. So this final score is not indicative
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 4: of what this game really was. Vandy actually won the
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 4: time of possession in this game, believe it or not,
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: by over seven minutes, by almost eight minutes. So this
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 4: game was not what it appeared on the scoreboard. It
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: looks like it was a massive blowout for Ole Miss,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: but Vandy basically threw the game away here. with just
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 4: tons and tons of mistakes turnovers whatever so I like
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 4: that so I think you have an Arkansas team that
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 4: looked really good last week and they weren't as good
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: as it looked a Vandy team that looked really bad
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: last week and they were actually better than it looked
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 4: I think it's going to be tough for Arkansas to
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: get back up off the mat after their game and
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: to make matters worse for Arkansas by the way it's
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: actually a sandwich spot too because sort of because they're
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: playing Missouri next although it will be after a bye
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: though but still that will be their next game and
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 4: that is a big game because Missouri is one of
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: their neighboring states. I think that is, I think it's
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 4: considered to be a rivalry game of some kind, but
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: Missouri is also a ranked team there, so I think
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 4: it is, you could call it a sandwich, I think,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 4: for Arkansas here. So we're going with a couple of
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 4: sandwiches this week, I think, where the bread is not
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: on the sandwich quite yet, but yeah, let's go with it.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: We're going to lay the points with Vandy here. Money
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 4: seems like it's not really agreeing with me here.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: 56% of the tickets and 67% of the cash on Arkansas,
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: but Be that as it may, I like Vandy here.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 4: I think there's a reason why Vandy's laying as many
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: points as they are here. Even though I know it's
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: not Diego Pavia anymore or whatever, but Arkansas lost their
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: quarterback from last year too, Green, and he's actually in
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: the NFL and Pavia is not. So do with all
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: that when you want. But yeah, the totals, you know,
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: it's not that high. But whatever, six isn't really that
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: much of a number to lay. And I think it
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 4: does look strange, I think, to have two teams with
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 4: ugly records like this and one of them being almost
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 4: a touchdown favorite. So to me, I think the public
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 4: might be sort of leaning towards the dog based on
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 4: what the number looks like and what they saw last week.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 4: So I'm going to fade that sentiment, lay the points
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: with Vandy in that one.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: Battle of Texas, or at least a Battle of Texas,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: on Fox Sports 1 at 7 p.m., uh, TCU and Baylor.
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: Uh, Baylor has actually been all right so far.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 4: They're four and one, although, um, They hadn't impressed me
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: so far in the season until they just absolutely smoked
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 4: Arizona State in their last game, man. So that was
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 4: a good-looking win in a spot where I didn't think
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: Baylor was going to do that well, and they won easily.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 4: Problem for Baylor is they went into a bye after that.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: So they went into the bye in a four-game win streak,
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 4: and you know I don't like that. When a team
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: goes into the bye and they have positive momentum again,
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 4: I'm going to say I think the bye disrupts their momentum.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: So I think that's actually a negative for Baylor.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: Coming out of that.
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: And they looked, I think, way too good in destroying
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: Arizona State like that. They had not done that really against...
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 4: That was by far their most impressive win. And I
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: don't really love taking teams off of their most impressive win.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: Baylor sitting at 4-1. TCU sitting at 2-3 on the season.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: TCU also had a bye last week. They went into
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 4: the bye on a good note, too, though, where they
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: almost covered against BYU. That was a good performance from TCU, but...
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 4: Baylor just looks better, man. I think when you see
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 4: Baylor putting up 55-something points, whatever, going into the bye
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 4: on a big win streak, and TCU has a low-scoring
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: couple of losses here to UCF and BYU, and then
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 4: they go into the bye on that note. I think
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: it's more likely that TCU is going to be able
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 4: to fix some things, stop that losing momentum, whereas I
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 4: would not want to play TCU if they had to
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 4: play immediately after that big game against BYU.
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: I'd be looking to fade TCU, but.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 4: The bye might kind of push that aside a little bit,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 4: might help them overcome that. And again, I think it's
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 4: kind of like an inverted bye situation here, where TCU,
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 4: I would say, went into the bye kind of on
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 4: a little bit more of a negative note, whereas Baylor
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: went in on a good note. So I think the
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 4: bye will therefore help TCU more. I'm going to lean
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 4: to TCU in this game. And they're getting the money,
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 4: it looks like, although it's not really a huge disparity here,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 4: but Baylor, 57% of the tickets on them, 53% of
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: the cash on TCU. It is another fairly low total,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 4: 48 and a half, basically, and you're getting basically six
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 4: points if you take TCU there, so that's what I
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 4: would do. I would take the points with TCU. If
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 4: I was going to do that, it kind of looks
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: too easy to me to lay the points with Baylor there.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: It's not really that high of a number, so... That's
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: what I got on that one.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 4: On Nevada, North Dakota State, this was really, really close
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: to being a play for me. Yeah, this one, I
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 4: like Nevada on this one against North Dakota State. North
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 4: Dakota State, as I already mentioned when I talked about UNLV,
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 4: That was a big game for both teams. And for
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: North Dakota State, they took their first loss of the
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: season and their first loss as an FBS team because
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 4: they're new to FBS.
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to talk about it again.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: When a team takes their first loss this late into
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 4: the season, a lot of times it will be.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: A hangover spot.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 4: That was a big game against UNLV, who's going to
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: be one of their competition in the Mountain West this year.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: UNLV still undefeated in the conference. And North Dakota State
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: taking that loss, it might hang them over into this
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 4: next one, man.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: Against Nevada.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 4: And it's worse, it's actually a sandwich for North Dakota
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 4: State because they got New Mexico on deck. And New
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 4: Mexico is the only other undefeated team left in Mountain
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 4: West play, even though they're only 1-0. But New Mexico's
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 4: a pretty solid team this year. I talked about how
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 4: I liked them coming into the season. So yeah, I
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 4: think this is a sandwich spot for North Dakota State.
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: They might be hung over from that Big game and
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 4: first loss of the season as well. They might be
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: looking ahead to New Mexico here. For Nevada, though, they
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 4: are coming off a blowout win themselves, but it was
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 4: kind of a get-right win because they lost three in
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: a row, and then they beat UTEP, which was last week,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: I think. So yeah, I got to keep looking at
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: the schedules. It's hard to keep all the buys in
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: your mind and whatever. But yeah, Nevada won that game
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 4: last week against UTEP. They had the buy before that.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: So it looks like the buy ended their losing momentum
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 4: kind of. They were able to get right. They beat UTEP.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: But I think that's just a game.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 4: They're not going to be overconfident after beating a bad
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: UTEP team. My real only concern with this is that
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: this is an unfamiliar travel spot for Nevada because North
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 4: Dakota State is new to the FBS. That's really my
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: only concern with Nevada here is that they're having to
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 4: go to an unfamiliar location here to play North Dakota State.
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: That's the only real issue I have with this. This
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 4: one's really, really close to making the cut for me.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 4: It was my last cut that I made right before.
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: I did the show. Now I'm thinking of adding it back.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: I think I might.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: Nevada's getting all the money here. 57% of the tickets
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 4: are on North Dakota State. 76% of the cash on Nevada.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: It is a low total.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 4: 42 and a half. The money has all come in
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 4: on the under, it looks like here. Driving that thing down.
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 4: And you're looking at 14 and a half. You're getting
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: the best of that key number here with a ridiculously
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 4: low total, too, where it's going to be all that
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: more difficult for the favorite to cover a number like that.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what? Fuck it.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 4: Let's add it back. We'll add Nevada plus the 14
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 4: and a half here. So I'm going to wind up
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: with five plays on the show tonight. That's a best bet.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 4: Let's do it. Hopefully, you know, I'll be able to
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: clip it, right? I'm going to put the best bet
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: graphic back up there for this. Nevada, we'll add them
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: as a best bet there.
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: So there you go. Nevada plus the 14 and a half.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: I like it. I liked it before I did the show.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean, the.
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 4: Market read looks good to me. The Total being really low,
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 4: it all looks really good to me, so let's do it.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 4: Nevada plus the points.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: One of the biggest games of the night, ABC, 7.30 p.m. Eastern.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 4: Number two, Notre Dame at number eight, BYU. I think
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame is legitimately one of the top couple teams
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 4: in the country. The only issue with Notre Dame is
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 4: how battle-tested are they really? Well, they're not really that battle-tested.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 4: Their best wins are against... I mean, I guess Wisconsin
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 4: is looking like their best win now, with Wisconsin playing
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: a little bit better recently. And that was in Lambeau
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: Field as well, so it was not a home game
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 4: for Notre Dame. Since then, Notre Dame, I mean... What
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: they've been doing is running up the score against bad teams.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: And the reason for that is that Notre Dame can't
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: take their foot off the gas because they kind of
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: did last year. And that's why they got left out
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 4: of the playoff. I think they should have been in
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 4: the playoff last year, but they got left out. And
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 4: it was basically, I think, because they don't have a conference.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 4: So that hurts them because their schedule is always too easy.
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 4: And they didn't win games by enough of a margin, basically.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 4: So this year, they're just blowing teams out. They're not
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 4: going to blow out BYU, though, I don't think. And
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 4: I talked about this before the season. I said, well,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame has this really easy schedule. But I said
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: that their most difficult game was not actually going to
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 4: be their home game against Miami. It was going to
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 4: be this BYU game going into high elevation on the road.
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: especially if it's kind of a night game, which it
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: basically is. BYU tends to catch a lot of teams
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 4: in these weird night games, teams that aren't used to
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 4: going out there and going into high elevation. So that's
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: the negative for Notre Dame here, man. And they've looked
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: pretty good. I mean, they blew out Stanford in their
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 4: last game, so maybe Notre Dame will be a little
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: bit overvalued here. But BYU is ranked number eight in
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 4: the country, and I'm not so sure they deserve that ranking.
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 4: And BYU has lost their running back now. I think
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 4: LJ Martin is his name. He's missed the last couple
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 4: of games. And BYU's rushing attack did not look good
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 4: without him. They had their quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, picking up
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 4: a lot of the slack running the football. So BYU
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 4: has kind of gone from a balanced offensive attack to
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: more like their quarterback is kind of doing everything, including
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 4: the rushing.
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if that's what you really want.
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of a negative for BYU.
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 4: So what do we do with this, man? I don't even,
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 4: I don't know what I want to do with this.
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: This game is really hard for me to figure out.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame is laying a lot of points on the
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 4: road here, I will tell you that. You got two
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 4: undefeated teams, and to me, I think the public's going
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 4: to look at this and say, oh my God, the
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 4: spread is 10 and a half here. with the road
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 4: team being favored, and even though it is Notre Dame
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: and they're highly ranked, to me, I think the public
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 4: sees like a number like that and two undefeated teams,
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 4: two teams ranked in the top 10. To me, I
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 4: think they're going to have a tendency to want to
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 4: play the underdog in this game. So that has me
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 4: kind of leaning towards Notre Dame.
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: A little bit in this game.
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 4: My problem with it is mostly that it's a tricky,
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 4: tricky spot having to go into high elevation, weird, unfamiliar
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 4: travel spot for Notre Dame. So that would worry me
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 4: about Notre Dame here for BYU and, They didn't look
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 4: as good last week. They beat Iowa State and not
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: very impressively. But is BYU an impressive team this year?
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, what have they done to justify their ranking here?
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: They beat Arizona by 11 at home, and Arizona was
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: hanging in that game for a while. They beat TCU
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: barely on the road. And then BYU wasn't really that
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 4: impressive last week either against Iowa State. And like I said,
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: with Martin not playing in those last couple games, the
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: rushing attack has been suffering immensely. yeah, I mean, both
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: teams will play kind of weak schedules here, but at
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 4: least Notre Dame is like blowing some opponents out here, which.
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: BYU doesn't seem to have the ability to do. However,
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: this is a.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 4: Like the style of this game does lend itself towards
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 4: a lower scoring game though. Like, I think these teams
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 4: are going to, they're both physical teams. So I think
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 4: you're going to seem kind of more of a physical
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 4: defensive game in this one. Um, The total's fairly low.
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 4: It's around 47 here, and it's gone down a little
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 4: bit from where it opened. So low-scoring game. With a
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 4: low-scoring game, I really don't want to lay points, especially
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 4: with the road team. You'd have to lay 10.5 with
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame if you want to lay the points.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: But in this game, I think that is the way
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: that I lean.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: I think BYU's going to wind up being a slightly
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 4: public home underdog here, which is very rare that you
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 4: get a home public underdog.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: It almost never happens.
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 4: And again, I think that's a red flag when the
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 4: public wants an underdog, especially if they're the home team,
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 4: because the Oswego's are telling you there's a significant edge
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 4: to the road team here. So I'd still lean towards
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: laying it with Notre Dame in this one, based on
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 4: my read of this.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: Although right now all.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: We see is 52% of tickets, 52% of the cash
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: on BYU. Not a whole lot to see there, but
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 4: given how I think that I kind of know how
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 4: the public thinks about games like this and whatever... It's
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: kind of telling me I think Notre Dame might be
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 4: the right side here. And again, Notre Dame, if they can,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 4: they want to blow every opponent out so they don't
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 4: have what happened to them last year and miss the
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 4: playoffs again just because they have a weak schedule. It
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 4: won't happen, though. But again, they at least need to
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 4: win this game, though, against BYU. But style points for
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame are going to matter all season, though. And
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 4: I think the fact that the line opened above the
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 4: key number 10 at 10.5, I think that might tell
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: you something, too. Like, if the oddsmakers kind of think
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 4: or maybe even know that maybe the public would have
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 4: a tendency to shy away from that and want to
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: grab the underdog here, that tells you something. They threw
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 4: it out there above that key number of 10, and
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 4: they haven't moved it. So I think it's almost like
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: they want BYU action here. So, yeah, I'm going to
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 4: lean Notre Dame in that one. Yes, Toad After Dark, yes. Zach,
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 4: you're a Notre Dame fan. I think, wait, did I
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: know that?
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I forget if I knew that or
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: you're just rooting for them in this game. I don't know.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: I forget where people's rooting interests are. I apologize.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 4: All right, we don't have too many games left here,
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 4: but yeah, we're not at two hours yet. All right,
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 4: we're not going to go two and a half this time.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 4: Wisconsin at number 12, UCLA. And the first thing that's
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 4: going to stick out at you here is UCLA is
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 4: only a two and a half point favorite here. Even
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 4: though they're ranked 12th in the country, they're undefeated and
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 4: they're at home. They're only laying two and a half. Um,
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 4: this is on NBC, by the way, at 7 30 PM.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: So that line looks really, really weird.
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: So right away, it looks like a trap.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 4: Like it looks like the Ozmakers want you to play
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: UCLA here. But my problem is UCLA lost their quarterback. Um, yeah,
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: Yamali Eva, however you pronounce his name, Nico formerly of Tennessee, uh,
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 4: They lost him, so they're going to be playing some
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 4: backup here. And I'm pretty sure that the line was
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 4: going to be about 7 on UCLA with Nico.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: But now that he's out, the line has dropped quite
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: a bit. And that's the problem I have.
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 4: Because initially I was like, you've got to play Wisconsin
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 4: in this game for a few different reasons. But my
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 4: problem with it is I don't think the number's right
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 4: to play Wisconsin. Even though it looks way, way, way
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 4: too easy to play UCLA here. I just don't think
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 4: you could do it because I think UCLA might still
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: get up for it just because I think it's the
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 4: first game with the injured quarterback where, like I say,
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: the line will over-adjust for that injury. You'll get more
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: line value on the team with the injured player in
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: that game, and they'll tend to step up their game
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: a little bit for that reason. It reminds me of
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 4: the Pitt game last week in a way, but fading
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: Pitt was still the right move in that game, and
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 4: I still think fading UCLA is still the.
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: Right move in this game. Don't get me wrong.
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 4: I just have my reservations with it. I thought Wisconsin
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: was going to make my card. They're not, but I
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 4: would still lean Wisconsin in this game just because it
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: looks too easy to play UCLA, but it's also because
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 4: of what UCLA did last week.
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: They went into Oregon, and they beat Oregon. And Oregon
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: was the double-digit favorite in this game.
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 4: UCLA, huge win for them against a ranked Oregon team.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 4: And I liked Oregon in this game. Dylan Raiola was
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 4: so bad in this game for Oregon that they took
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 4: him out of the game.
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: And they went with the younger guy, Brock Thomas, here.
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 4: Although I guess he's a senior, but I think maybe
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 4: he doesn't have as much experience. Thomas actually, I think,
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: played a lot better than... than Raiola did. Raiola was
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: just a putrid 6-for-19 with two interceptions. Thomas was good
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: at throwing the football, but I think there were a
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: bunch of fumbles here, though. Yeah, each quarterback lost one fumble,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: but yeah, it was an upgrade to Brock Thomas, and
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: it will be Thomas this week, by the way, for Oregon,
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 4: which I'll talk about in a minute. But it'll be
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 4: Diffenbach for UCLA, who... I have no idea, or Dieffenbach,
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 4: excuse me. I don't know how good he's going to be, man.
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 4: But yeah, Nico got hurt in this game. But the
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 4: main thing to know about UCLA beating Oregon here, it
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 4: was completely misleading.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: Oregon had seven turnovers in this game. Seven. Yeah, that's right.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: Seven turnovers.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 4: I think Raiola had like, whatever I said, three interceptions
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 4: in the game maybe, or two interceptions.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: Oregon had a whole bunch of fumbles in this game too, so.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: UCLA benefited from a lot of randomness, too, because the
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: fumbles themselves might not be random, but who recovers the
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 4: fumble is pretty random. And Oregon lost a lot of
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 4: fumbles in this game. This is a misleading result. Seven
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 4: turnovers is insane. And the fact that UCLA was plus
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 4: four in turnovers because they had three themselves, but they
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: still barely won the game, that to me is a
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 4: red flag to me, that UCLA really didn't play that
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 4: well in this game, even though, yes, you do.
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: See they did outgain Oregon in this game.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 4: That's because Oregon could never hold onto the ball to
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: even possess the ball.
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 1: So what do you want?
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, UCLA dominated possession by almost double. Again, that's because
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 4: Oregon turned it over every time they had the ball.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: So what do you want? Literally, I think they turned
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: it over on their first four possessions of the game,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: Oregon did.
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 4: So it's like, what do you want? So this is
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 4: a misleading result for UCLA. It's a big win for
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 4: them as a huge underdog. So I think that sets
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 4: them up in a letdown spot here. So overall, I
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 4: do prefer Wisconsin here. But again, I already made some points.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: I think there's not really enough value to play Wisconsin
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 4: because you are going to have UCLA in the injured
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: player theory spot. Like I said, with the line over
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 4: adjusting to the injured quarterback. And for Wisconsin, I don't
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 4: love that they're going out west to play a night game.
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 4: You know I talk about this when these teams that
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 4: are in one of the the more eastern time zones
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 4: they have to go out west for the first time
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 4: on the season or whatever it is and play a
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 4: night game like this and it's going to be an
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: unfamiliar environment because UCLA is new to the Big Ten
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 4: somewhat so Wisconsin's not really used to going out there
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: That gives me pause. I think it's negative for the
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 4: team's biological clock to have to try to shift to
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 4: the Pacific time zone like that, but also kind of
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 4: an unfamiliar travel arrangement and environment, so I don't really
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 4: want Wisconsin either. Wisconsin is also coming out of a bye,
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 4: I believe. Yeah, and they went into the bye on
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 4: a really good note. They won four games in a row,
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 4: and they destroyed Michigan State going into the bye. Full disclosure,
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 4: we lost that game on the show with Michigan State.
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 4: I thought Wisconsin was going to be in a sandwiched uh,
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 4: in that game after they beat Penn state.
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: Huge win for them. They had this UCLA game up
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: after the buy. It didn't happen.
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 4: They stopped Michigan state, but that's another reason why I
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 4: don't want Wisconsin in this game is they went into
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: the buy on a very good note. And I think
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 4: that can ruin your positive momentum when that happens. So
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 4: I will, uh, Stay off of this game, but I
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 4: will lean Wisconsin overall here.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: The money seems like it's not agreeing with me on that.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 4: 67% of tickets, 91% of the cash on UCLA. Again,
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 4: I see a lot of conflicting factors here, situations that
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 4: go both ways here.
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: It's a very difficult game to handicap. in my opinion.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 4: I'll slightly lean Wisconsin, plus the points. Again, because I
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 4: think it just comes down to the number makes it
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 4: look like.
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: A trap to me.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 4: It looks too easy to play UCLA, but it does
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 4: look like the real money might be backing UCLA there.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: But I don't know.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 4: It's that plus the misleading result for UCLA and the
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 4: letdown spot that they're in has me looking towards Wisconsin there. Zach,
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 4: you root for the Royals, Notre Dame, and the Devils.
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 4: All right, that's a weird mix. Kansas City, South Bend,
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 4: and New Jersey.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: You went to UMKC. I think I knew that. You
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: went to UMKC. The Roos.
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think their entire athletic program is
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 4: a Roos. Oh, except their soccer team, I guess.
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: There you go. They have a good soccer program.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: I only know them from handicapping basketball, and they're never
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 4: any good at basketball, so in the Summit League there.
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 4: Number 15, Kentucky at Oklahoma. Here's one of those games, man,
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: where you have an unranked favorite against a ranked road opponent.
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 4: You know there's usually at least one out there somewhere. Historically,
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 4: it's good to lay the points with the unranked team
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 4: against the ranked team.
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: Opponent, right?
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: Because it's just totally like a mis, like it basically
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: it's the odds makers are telling you something completely different
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 4: than what the rankings makers are saying, right? Rankings makers
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 4: are saying Kentucky is the 15th best team in the country. Oklahoma,
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 4: not even ranked, but the odds makers by favoring Oklahoma
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 4: by almost a touchdown at home, they're telling you, no,
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: we have the actual money on this.
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: We know that Oklahoma is actually the better team here.
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 4: So I do like to look at that as a
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 4: handicapping technique where The rankings makers are going to... They
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 4: basically mislead the public in a certain direction, but the
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 4: odds makers who have the actual money on it are
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 4: telling you what the reality is here.
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: So I listen to the odds makers.
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 4: But even though historically that's worked out pretty well over
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 4: the last few years in both football and basketball, in
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 4: football this year, this situation has been awful. The... The
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 4: unranked favorite against the ranked underdog this year, I think
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 4: it's like 0-6.
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: Against the spread.
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 4: Not much better straight up, I don't think, either. That
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 4: gives me a little bit of pause with looking at
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 4: this game, even though I am going to lean towards
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma in this game, but I think the main component
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 4: in this game is Kentucky is off a massive win.
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 4: They upset LSU last week. They were a double-digit home
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 4: underdog in that game. It went to overtime, and I
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 4: think they won on a two-point conversion in the end
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 4: against LSU. Massive win for Kentucky. I think that vaulted
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 4: them way too high in the rankings. I don't believe
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 4: that Kentucky is actually the 15th best team in the country.
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 4: Their win over Texas A & M, which was their
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 4: other big win on the season, that's not looking as
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 4: good right now because A & M has been pretty
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 4: much ass since then. Kentucky beating South Carolina on the road,
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 4: all right, yeah. I mean, South Carolina looked good against
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 4: Florida last week, but still, I don't know if that
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 4: win's that good, and it was misleading. South Carolina really
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 4: outgained them in that game.
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah, man, I don't think Kentucky's as good as where
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 4: they're ranked right now. I think they're in a major
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: letdown spot coming up, that huge win over LSU. So
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 4: it's a very, very negative spot for Kentucky. So that
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 4: had me thinking, yeah, Oklahoma's absolutely going to make my card.
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 4: The problem is they're not because Oklahoma's also in a
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 4: bad spot.
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: They just won the Red River shootout last week.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 4: It wasn't that much of a shootout, and you're not
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 4: supposed to call it that anymore. Can't talk about guns.
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 4: But yeah, Oklahoma, that was a huge win for them.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 4: That's always a big rivalry. I think Oklahoma usually considers
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 4: themselves to be the little brother against Texas, basically. And
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 4: they won that game. It was a win for us.
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about my wins, too. We won with that
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 4: one on the show last week. But one of the
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: problems I have with Oklahoma is that they didn't do
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 4: that well in that game statistically. Yeah, I'll take the
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 4: cover and the outright win, sure, with Oklahoma, but Texas
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 4: outgained Oklahoma by well over 100 yards in this game.
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: Texas made some mistakes, turned the ball over. That is
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 4: part of the handicap. When you're going to fade a
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 4: team you think is in a distracted spot or something,
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 4: part of that is that they're not going to be
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 4: focused and they might make mistakes.
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: So that is what happened with Texas there.
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Oklahoma was a little bit of a misleading result,
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 4: plus it was a big win for Oklahoma against Texas.
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to come in and play Oklahoma.
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 4: In this game either. I don't think they're going to
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 4: overlook Kentucky, though, at the very least. And I think
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 4: Kentucky's letdown spot is worse. Because Oklahoma, I mean, they
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 4: beat Texas, you know, reasonably often in the Red River game.
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 4: Kentucky pulling off an upset like that against LSU doesn't
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 4: happen very often. And Kentucky is never usually ranked like this,
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 4: as far as I know.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 4: I think if you're going to play this game, I
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 4: think Oklahoma's the right side here.
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: Kentucky looks like they will be public.
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 4: 81% of tickets, 88% of the cash on them. Although, yeah,
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 4: the cash percentage is a little bit higher on them.
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 4: But I think they're going to be a dreaded public underdog.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 4: I think Kentucky will be because, again, the public's going
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 4: to go with what the rankings makers are saying. and
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 4: think that there's value. Oh, I'm going to beat the
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 4: books by listening to the rankings makers. I'll tell you,
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 4: you're not. Even though it's worked so far this year
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 4: in college football, it's a small sample size. And larger
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 4: sample size, long-term, doing that is not going to work
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 4: for you. So I like Oklahoma. And the fact that
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: it's still sitting at 6.5... Well, actually, no. Usually I
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 4: talk about how 6.5, you usually want to go against
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 4: the team that's laying the 6.5.
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 1: But in this one.
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I guess, yeah, my
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: thought was just wrong on that, but whatever.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma's sitting at 6.5, but you do get the better
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 4: of the 7, I guess is what I was thinking there.
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 4: So if you're going to play Oklahoma, you do get
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 4: the better number there with 6.5. But it is a
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 4: low total, 43.5, so that's not really that great as
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 4: far as laying points, but whatever. I like Oklahoma on
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 4: that one. On Fox at 7.30 p.m.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 1: Eastern, we have... Wait, did I.
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 4: I feel like I skipped this game when I handicapped everything.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 4: Number 18, Oklahoma State. Number 20, Houston. I might do
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 4: this on the fly. I think I skipped this handicap.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 4: Houston is favored by four and a half here, though,
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 4: so the odds breakers are kind of telling you that
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 4: Houston's probably the better team over Oklahoma State, and I
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 4: can tell you they have the better defense. I pretty
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 4: much knew Oklahoma State was going to be better this
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: year because they brought in Morris, the coach from North Texas,
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 4: and they brought his quarterback with them, Mestemaker, and he's
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 4: a really good quarterback, I think, so I thought Oklahoma
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 4: State was going to improve offensively, and they definitely have,
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 4: but I think the hype is a little bit too far. uh,
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 4: with Oklahoma state, like they're basically just riding that huge
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 4: win they had against Oregon. Oregon's not looking that great
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 4: right now, man. So that win for Oklahoma state doesn't
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 4: really look as good now. And that's all they have
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 4: to hang their hat on. The rest of their wins
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 4: really aren't really that good. So I'm not sold on
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 4: this Oklahoma state team, even though I think mess the
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 4: maker's good.
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 1: He's had a good season so far.
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 4: I thought their offense would improve, but Houston's got the
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 4: better defense in this matchup. Um, Oklahoma State just kind
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 4: of rolling right now. This is not going to be
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 4: an easy matchup for them. It'll be their most difficult
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 4: road game so far.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 1: Houston coming into this game off.
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 4: Of a pulverizing Kansas State, though, so I don't really
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 4: want Houston coming off a game like that. Whereas Oklahoma
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 4: State's coming off a win, I think an easy win
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 4: over UCF, I think is what it was. Yeah, so
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 4: both teams are coming off easy wins, though, kind of,
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 4: but Houston's a little bit more impressive, though, because Kansas
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 4: State's a bit of a better team than UCF, I
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 4: would say.
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, I mean, Even though I was leaning Houston
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 1: in this game, I mean, I don't know, man.
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 4: It's really not that strong of an opinion. You could
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 4: maybe make the argument the spot actually favors Oklahoma State
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 4: a little bit here. And, you know, the money is
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 4: actually backing Oklahoma State. 68% of tickets, 92% of the
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 4: cash on them.
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: It's a high total, too.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, the oddsmakers seem to think that that Oklahoma
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 4: State offense is going to be able to do something
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 4: against Houston's defense here. And usually when it's the better defense,
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 4: I like them getting points, but not necessarily laying points,
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 4: which Houston is doing here, four and a half. You know,
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 4: I thought Houston might be the right side when I
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 4: first thought about this game. I just wasn't impressed with
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma State's resume. But yeah, I mean, the market percentages
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 4: there are really indicating towards Oklahoma State, and I actually
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 4: think the situation's a little bit better for them.
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man.
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 4: Maybe I will lean Oklahoma State plus the points there.
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 4: That game's on Fox, 7.30 p.m.
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 3: Eastern.
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 4: That game was one that I hadn't really looked at
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 4: as far as trying to handicap. I just completely skipped it,
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 4: I think, when I was handicapped. it, but not a
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 4: game that's going to make my card anyway. Louisville is
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 4: at Syracuse on ACC Network, 7.30 p.m.
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 3: Eastern.
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 1: Louisville, we played them last game.
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 4: They're coming off a big win here if this thing
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 4: would load ever. What are we doing here, man? Don't
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 4: tell me I lost internet or something. That would be
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 4: a great time for that, wouldn't it be?
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 1: Crap. No, it looks like we're fine. I don't know
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 1: what that was. But we played Louisville last week, right?
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 1: And I already talked about that.
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 4: They caught Florida State in a good spot to catch them.
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 4: Florida State had blown out Virginia, which was even bigger
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 4: for Florida State because that was a revenge game for
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 4: Virginia beating Florida State in that high-profile double overtime game
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 4: last year. So I thought Florida State was in a
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 4: sandwich spot coming into this game against Louisville because they
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 4: then had Miami on deck this week, which I already mentioned.
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 4: Louisville got the win. They looked really good in beating
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 4: up Florida State in primetime. Now Louisville's got to go
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 4: back out on the road, and they've only played one
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 4: road game this season, and they lost to an NC
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 4: State team that's not that good. Louisville having to go
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 4: all the way up to New York now to play Syracuse.
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 4: Kind of a weird spot, man, for them. Have to
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 4: go up to the Carrier Dome or whatever it's called now.
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: As far as Syracuse is concerned, I.
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 4: Think they are a little bit better with, although it
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 4: looks like, what, they're actually considering bringing back Angeli. I
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 4: thought that he was hurt and that they didn't want
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 4: to play him anymore because he sucks.
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: Am I wrong about that?
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 4: Oh, it looks like maybe Odom got hurt too because
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 4: they had switched from Angeli to Odom. I think Odom
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 4: must have gotten hurt. I think that's what's going on.
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 4: Syracuse just has this revolving door at quarterback right now
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 4: man Nelson I guess stepped in last week but it
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 4: looks like Angelli may be on his way back but
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 4: I think they want Odom over Angelli but he must
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 4: be hurt right now so you got to take all
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 4: this into account with Syracuse here you got to see
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 4: what's going on with their QB situation but also they
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 4: just went into Virginia and almost pulled off that upset
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 4: against Virginia which would have been a double digit upset
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 4: for Syracuse so I don't want Syracuse coming off a
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 4: game like that where they almost pull off the upset.
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are in negative spots.
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 4: I think if Angeli is coming back for Syracuse here,
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 4: I think that's a negative. He's not a good quarterback,
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 4: and they might get actually a little bit overvalued in
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 4: the market if he is coming back here. This game's
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 4: a really difficult handicap, dude. Who does Louisville play next
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 4: is really what I want to know. Will Louisville overlook
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 4: Syracuse is kind of the question I want to answer here.
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: They only play Stanford next. That's not really that big
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 1: of a deal. So, yeah, this.
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 4: Game's really hard to figure out, for me at least.
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 4: Looks like the money's indicating towards Syracuse. Louisville's favored, which,
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 4: of course, I think you would expect. 70% of the
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 4: tickets on them, 64% of the cash. They're laying double digits.
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 4: They're laying two touchdowns, 14.5 here. I guess I'll slightly
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 4: lean Syracuse plus the points there. Really, really weak opinion
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 4: for me on that one, though. And it's a total
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 4: in the mid-50s, so it's not really a low total either. ESPNU,
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 4: Navy at UTSA. This UTSA team is actually kind of
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 4: fun to watch over the last few years. They have
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 4: a pretty decent offense. Last game, they only covered because
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 4: they went with a two-point conversion to go up seven
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 4: at the end of.
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: Their game against.
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 4: South Florida, that was a lean I gave out on
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 4: the show, not actually a play, but they got there
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 4: only because they, or pushed maybe for you, only because
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 4: they went for two at the end there. But yeah,
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 4: UTSA is coming up with a win over South Florida.
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 1: Not really that great of a win.
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 4: UTSA has extra time off because they played last Thursday.
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 4: Maybe they'll be focused here for this game against Navy
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 4: because that win wasn't that impressive against South Florida. South Florida,
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 4: not a good team this year. But extra time off,
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 4: maybe not a good thing when you have three wins
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 4: in a row.
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 1: It kind of functions like.
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 4: A mini-bye, you know what I mean, where it.
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: Might disrupt your momentum a little bit for UTSA.
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 4: UTSA, I think they are at least used to playing
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 4: these triple option teams, though, because they're in the same conference.
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 1: I think they play.
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 4: At least some. They play either Navy or Army pretty
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 4: much every year, I think. So I'm not that concerned
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 4: by their ability to defend against a triple option. Navy
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 4: was able to get a nice bounce back win last
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 4: week against Tulsa. They played on Saturday, so they're on
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 4: normal rest here. But that ended a three-game losing streak
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 4: for Navy. So I think that's good for Navy. They
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 4: ended their losing streak with that win over Tulsa. I
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 4: don't know if their quarterback, Woodson, is coming back or not.
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 4: But it looks like there's really no downgrade between him
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 4: and Gutierrez. It looks like Gutierrez can do whatever Woodson
• 2:02:38
  Speaker 4: can do.
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 1: So whatever.
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 4: It is still a little bit of a difficult spot, though,
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 4: in that Navy's having to play these road games here
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 4: all in quick succession. It's going to be their third
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 4: road game in four weeks, and that included a trip
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 4: all the way out to Air Force.
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 1: So that's not great.
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 4: But coming off a win over Tulsa, where I think
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 4: Navy was a small favorite at home, that's more of
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 4: just a get-right win there.
• 2:03:03
  Speaker 1: So I think I'm going.
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 4: To lean Navy in this one. UTSA, 83% of tickets,
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 4: 90% of the cash on them. They're a six and
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 4: a half point favorite. It might hit seven. So yeah,
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 4: if you like Navy, you should probably wait and you'll
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 4: probably find a seven somewhere. It looks like they might
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 4: be starting to crop up there with the public on UTSA.
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 4: It is not easy to play in the Alamo dome though.
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 4: I'm assuming that's where that game is being played at UTSA.
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 4: So yeah, it's a pretty strong home environment for UTSA there,
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 4: but more so on like the midweek primetime games where
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 4: it's an isolated game, which this is not one of those.
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 4: So that's what I got as far as that game
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 4: is concerned. Number 11, Utah at Colorado in the Battle
• 2:03:44
  Speaker 4: of High Elevation here. Utah's been really good so far
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 4: this year, but this game's on ESPN as well, but
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 4: I don't know if this is a great spot for
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 4: Utah here. I mean, they're rolling along. They don't have
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 4: any great wins so far, really. But they've pretty much
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 4: been able to handle every team they've played so far
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 4: and won every game by double digits. So, yeah, this
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 4: Utah team not really missing a beat, losing Kyle Whittingham,
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 4: their coach, over to Michigan. Utah had their coach already waiting.
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 1: For years and years. They knew who was going to
• 2:04:14
  Speaker 1: be his replacement.
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 2: He's in.
• 2:04:16
  Speaker 4: Same system, same quarterback, whatever. So Utah, a lot of continuity.
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 4: They're basically just picking up right where they left off.
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 4: But this might not be an easy spot for them.
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 4: They've only played one road game so far at Iowa State.
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 4: It was their least impressive of their wins so far,
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 4: pretty much. It was their smallest margin of victory, at least.
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 4: And they do have a ranked Houston team on deck.
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 4: So maybe Utah will be looking ahead to that here.
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 4: Utah coming off an easy win over Kansas last time out.
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 1: For Colorado....
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 4: Still with Deion Sanders as their coach there. Colorado has
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 4: not looked good recently. And they just lost to Texas
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 4: Tech last time out. But they did go into a bye.
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 4: So I think that's a good thing. Colorado went into
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 4: a bye on a three-game losing streak. So that might
• 2:05:01
  Speaker 4: help them fix some stuff.
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 2:05:04
  Speaker 4: They might break their losing momentum with that bye. They
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 4: have an extra week to prepare. This will be a
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 4: big game for them against Utah. So I'm going to
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 4: lean Colorado in this game. One issue I would have
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 4: with Colorado, though, is they're really not battle-tested. Their only
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 4: good win is against Georgia Tech on the road, and
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 4: decent win. It was an upset win, but it was
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 4: week one where some weird things, or week zero, or
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 4: week one, I forget, whatever it was. Weird things happened
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 4: in some of those games, though, man, and Colorado hasn't
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 4: really impressed since then, so we'll see if they can
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 4: step up in class here to at least cover this number.
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 1: I will lean that way, though. Utah's going to be public.
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 4: They got 78% of the tickets, although they do have 90%.
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 1: Of the cash on them as well. But I don't know.
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 4: I just think they're going to be a public side.
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 4: They dropped from 16.5 down to 15.5. Looks like it's.
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 1: Headed towards 14.
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 4: So if you like Colorado, you should try to get
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 4: at least 14.5 on this before it drops.
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 1: Right onto that key number. And it's a low total, 49.
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 1: So it's 49.5 maybe. It's expected to be kind of
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 1: a defensive slugfest in a way here.
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 4: And Utah, I mean, Utah does play super physical, though,
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 4: so that's one other issue I'd have with Colorado is
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 4: Colorado's not really a physical team. Utah is, which is
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 4: why Utah's been pretty good in the Big 12 since
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 4: they've been in here, and they were good in the
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 4: Pac-12 for that reason, too, because they beat up teams,
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 4: and they're playing a lot of these finesse teams. But
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 4: I'm still going to lean to Colorado plus the points
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 4: in that one. Number 21, Wake Forest, going all the
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 4: way up for a late, late.
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 1: Game at Cal on ESPN2. And right away, two things.
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think Wake is actually a top 25 team.
• 2:06:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, they've been winning games, but having them
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 4: number 21 in the country seems kind of ridiculous to me.
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 4: I thought they overperformed last year, though, and they're continuing
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 4: performing well this year. So maybe I have them wrong,
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 4: but I don't think they're the 21st best team in
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 4: the country. They're having to go out west for a late,
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 4: late game, and I think that's really bad for your
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 4: biological clock. The later it is, the worse it is
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 4: for these East Coast teams going out west for a
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 4: game like this. So I don't like the spot for
• 2:07:11
  Speaker 4: Wake Forest here. Going all the way out west, now
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 4: having a target on their back because they're ranked. They're
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 4: coming up a huge win in an in-state rivalry game
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 4: against NC State, where I think Wake always considers themselves
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 4: the little brother, even though they were actually favored in
• 2:07:25
  Speaker 4: that game at NC State, who is down this year.
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 4: That's a big win for Wake, man. Satisfying win to
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 4: blow out your bigger brother like that. NC State, now
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 4: they've got to.
• 2:07:35
  Speaker 1: Swing around, go all the way to Cal.
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 4: First time they're leaving the Eastern Times on this year,
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 4: I think.
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 1: Unless, is Purdue in the Central? Maybe Purdue is in
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 1: the Central.
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 4: But other than that, they have not left this time zone.
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 4: And they do have Virginia on deck after a buy,
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 4: which maybe they consider that to be a little bit
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 4: of a bigger game. So all of that makes this
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 4: look pretty good for a Cal spot here. Problem is,
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 4: I don't want Cal either because they just pulled off
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 4: an upset over Virginia Tech. And that was their injured
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 4: player theory game. Sagapolitelli is hurt. He went into concussion protocol.
• 2:08:10
  Speaker 4: So they had to use whoever their backup is in
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 4: that game. And I talk about how when a team
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 4: first game with their backup quarterback, a lot of times
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 4: you get extra value on them. And the team steps
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 4: up their effort a bit. So I think you got
• 2:08:23
  Speaker 4: that from Cal last week. But also Virginia Tech was
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 4: in a ridiculous spot, having to go all the way
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 4: out west, just like Wake is having to do here.
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 4: And Virginia Tech was off a pretty big game that
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 4: closing seconds lost to Pitt. So it was a hangover
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 4: spot for Virginia Tech. Bad travel spot for them. Plus
• 2:08:40
  Speaker 4: the injured player at the response. That all helped Cal
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 4: in that game. But the other part of the injured
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 4: player at the response is after the team does well
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 4: in that game, especially if they pull off an upset
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 4: like that, I think it's a negative after that. And generally,
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 4: I think it is a negative after a team pulls
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 4: off a big upset like that. So I don't want
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 4: Cal here either. Even though I think probably there's still
• 2:08:59
  Speaker 4: the right side.
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 1: In this game to lean to him.
• 2:09:02
  Speaker 4: I don't want them either, and I would keep an
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 4: eye on Sagapolitelli's status because he might clear concussion protocol.
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 4: He might be back this week, but that would also
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 4: make me not want Cal, actually, even though, again, it
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 4: seems counterintuitive. But when the injured player comes back, what
• 2:09:17
  Speaker 4: happens is if the team won that last game, they
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 4: might be thinking, oh, well, we can win without this guy.
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 1: Now that he's back, it's like they kind.
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 4: Of just take their foot off the gas, at least
• 2:09:26
  Speaker 4: mentally a little bit. So I don't love that. He
• 2:09:29
  Speaker 4: has to work his way back in, and the line's
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 4: going to adjust to it.
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
• 2:09:33
  Speaker 4: So that makes me not really want Cal here either.
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 4: If you force me to give you a lean on this,
• 2:09:38
  Speaker 4: I'll still lean to Cal in this one, though. I
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 4: think the spot sets up worse for Wake here. 63%
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 4: of the tickets are on Wake, 61% of the cash
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 4: on Cal. So the money is indicating on Cal here.
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 4: I would try to get.
• 2:09:50
  Speaker 1: 10 on this.
• 2:09:50
  Speaker 4: It looks like you can get 10 at some books
• 2:09:52
  Speaker 4: right now. That's a key number, as we know, in football.
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 4: So if you're going to take the points with Cal...
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 4: Just like I said last week, try to find the
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 4: 10 on this. And, yeah, take advantage of that key
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 4: number there. All right, next up, Fresno State at San
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 4: Diego State on CBS Sports, 10.30 p.m.
• 2:10:09
  Speaker 1: Eastern.
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 4: I thought I was going to have a play on
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 4: this game, and I'm going to stay away from it
• 2:10:13
  Speaker 4: just because I just have my reservations about it, man.
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 4: But I like San Diego State to cover this one. Fresno,
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 4: they're coming up a big game against Boise, man. That's
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 4: one of their biggest games of the season. After the
• 2:10:26
  Speaker 4: Pac-12 reforming, Boise is sitting atop this conference, and they're
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 4: basically the best team in this conference. Fresno's been pretty
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 4: competitive so far, at least, and they almost were able
• 2:10:37
  Speaker 4: to pull that off against Boise. only losing by 7,
• 2:10:41
  Speaker 4: although it wasn't like a last-second thing. Fresno was losing
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 4: by 10 with only a minute and a half to go,
• 2:10:47
  Speaker 4: so Fresno was able to cut it back to 7
• 2:10:50
  Speaker 4: late with a field goal, and there was just not
• 2:10:52
  Speaker 4: enough time left to do anything. But even so, Fresno,
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 4: it was a huge game against Boise, so I think
• 2:10:57
  Speaker 4: they are still going to be flat coming off a
• 2:10:59
  Speaker 4: game like that, a big game. Plus, if you look
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 4: at the box score, this was not what it looked
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 4: like on the scoreboard. Scoreboard makes it look like a
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 4: close game.
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 1: No.
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 4: Boise completely outgained Fresno in this game. Boise dominated the
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 4: possession in this game. Yeah, Boise was the better team
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 4: in this game, and there were no turnovers either way,
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 4: so honestly, I don't really know exactly how Boise didn't win.
• 2:11:21
  Speaker 1: This game more easily.
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 4: They did have a lot of penalties, so maybe that
• 2:11:24
  Speaker 4: had something to do with it, but still. And Fresno
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 4: was pretty clean in the game. But either way you
• 2:11:29
  Speaker 4: look at it, Fresno looked better than they were in
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 4: that game. They played really tough against a tough Boise team,
• 2:11:35
  Speaker 4: so I think that's going to have them flat coming
• 2:11:37
  Speaker 4: off of that. But it gets worse because they got
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 4: Oregon State next, and I actually think that might be
• 2:11:42
  Speaker 4: a look ahead because Oregon State is the only other
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 4: team in the Pac-12 that's undefeated in conference play now
• 2:11:47
  Speaker 4: besides Boise. So Fresno has this game sandwiched in between
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 4: those two games. So it is a sandwich spot. Yes,
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 4: there is a bye in here. They have a bye
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 4: before they play Oregon State, but still... I think it
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 4: is basically a sandwich spot here. And Oregon State's been
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 4: lighting up the scoreboard. So you might look ahead to
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 4: that game for that reason too because their offenses look
• 2:12:07
  Speaker 4: so good. And you might look right past the San
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 4: Diego State team, man, because they've been playing so badly here.
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 4: They just lost 66-14 to that Oregon State team. I mean,
• 2:12:17
  Speaker 4: it doesn't get much worse than that. But like I said,
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 4: whenever a team has that bad of a game, I
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 4: tend to look to play on them in the next
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 4: game if I'm going to do anything with it because
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 4: no team is ever that bad, right? And it's just
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 4: so embarrassing that you got to play better. You got
• 2:12:33
  Speaker 4: to bounce back after that. So I like San Diego
• 2:12:35
  Speaker 4: State in this game. But my problem is the reason
• 2:12:38
  Speaker 4: why San Diego State's been losing all these recent games,
• 2:12:40
  Speaker 4: and they should have lost to Texas State too, by
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 4: the way. They got completely outgained in that game against
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 4: Texas State.
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 1: But Texas State.
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 4: did what they do, and they turned the ball over
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 4: all over the place in that game. But the reason
• 2:12:51
  Speaker 4: why San Diego State's been bad in all these games
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 4: is because they had a huge mumps outbreak that was
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 4: going throughout the whole team, so a bunch of guys
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 4: were really sick and couldn't play, which, by the way,
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 4: it's even more hilarious because... at this school they're required
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 4: to get the mumps vaccine you're telling me that you're
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 4: not immune to the mumps after you get vaccinated what
• 2:13:13
  Speaker 4: sound familiar um i don't know i don't think i'm
• 2:13:16
  Speaker 4: i don't think i can say anything else let's not
• 2:13:17
  Speaker 4: get this channel nuked i don't know but not only
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 4: do they have a mumps outbreak but they also had
• 2:13:22
  Speaker 4: a lot of injuries going on in this team too
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 4: so my problem with san diego state is i just
• 2:13:26
  Speaker 4: don't know how many of these guys are going to
• 2:13:28
  Speaker 4: be back like i don't know if they're over this
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 4: mumps thing yet it's seemingly lasted the last like four
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 4: weeks or so. I don't know how many of their
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 4: guys are healthy enough to come back here. I don't
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 4: know about the injury situation either. And you can't really
• 2:13:41
  Speaker 4: tell because the, the, the illness stuff doesn't even show
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 4: up on the injury report.
• 2:13:46
  Speaker 1: And because it's like, there's like.
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 4: It's a HIPAA thing, I think, uh, which is, you know, the, um,
• 2:13:52
  Speaker 4: Patient privacy protection.
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 1: Whatever the hell it is.
• 2:13:55
  Speaker 4: In the medical field, you're not allowed to disclose any
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 4: medical info, basically. As a handicapper, that makes it really
• 2:14:03
  Speaker 4: difficult to handicap basically a pandemic that's going on in
• 2:14:08
  Speaker 4: this locker room because you don't even know who's still
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 4: sick and who isn't. So I just have to stay
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 4: away from the game. But I like San Diego State
• 2:14:14
  Speaker 4: in this one if I was going to play it.
• 2:14:16
  Speaker 4: It seems monstrously ugly, but I think that's the right
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 4: way to play this game.
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 1: The money seems to agree.
• 2:14:21
  Speaker 4: 75% of the tickets are on Fresno. 72% of the
• 2:14:24
  Speaker 4: cash on San Diego State. So the money is indicating
• 2:14:28
  Speaker 4: on San Diego State here. The number is 7.5. So
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 4: you get that key number, 7.5, there on San Diego State.
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 4: So you get more than a touchdown taking the points there.
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 1: And it's a low total in the 40s.
• 2:14:41
  Speaker 4: So You know me, I like taking underdogs more so
• 2:14:45
  Speaker 4: when it's a low total like that. It's easier to
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 4: cover as a big dog. So I like San Diego
• 2:14:50
  Speaker 4: State plus the points. That one was close to being
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 4: a play for me. I just don't think I could
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 4: really do it here. I ought to say, I don't
• 2:14:58
  Speaker 4: know what you're laughing at, man. Clint Russell, what's up, man?
• 2:15:01
  Speaker 4: Liberty Lockdown, your team, San Diego State. I like them
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 4: to cover this one, man. Clint, was it your fault
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 4: that they had the mumps outbreak there that's like ruining
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 4: their season?
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 2:15:12
  Speaker 4: What I want to know is, is it gone now?
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 4: That's my question. Like, how did the vaccine not work
• 2:15:18
  Speaker 4: for them, man?
• 2:15:18
  Speaker 1: What's going on? But yeah, that's my hesitation with San
• 2:15:21
  Speaker 1: Diego State here. I just don't know what their... Health statuses,
• 2:15:26
  Speaker 1: so that was you. Man, their football team is going
• 2:15:31
  Speaker 1: to have some words with you, I think, man.
• 2:15:35
  Speaker 4: Clint, what's up, man? Talking about a big dog. Clint
• 2:15:37
  Speaker 4: is the big dog here. Clint, do you want to
• 2:15:40
  Speaker 4: come back on and do bald prior to Tuesday when
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 4: the NBA starts so we can talk about how we
• 2:15:45
  Speaker 4: hate the 76ers? The 76ers, the most hated team now.
• 2:15:52
  Speaker 4: Let me know if you want to come on. We
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 4: can do a bald episode to preview the NBA. All right,
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 4: what do we have left here? Only two games left
• 2:16:01
  Speaker 4: that I'm going to talk about. New Mexico at Hawaii
• 2:16:03
  Speaker 4: on Fox Sports 1. I like this New Mexico team, man.
• 2:16:07
  Speaker 4: They're playing well. They have a lot of guys that
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 4: returned from last year. But I don't know if I
• 2:16:12
  Speaker 4: love this spot. They're coming off a 61-7 win over UTEP,
• 2:16:15
  Speaker 4: and yeah, UTEP is ass.
• 2:16:18
  Speaker 1: But I do think New Mexico is coming out of
• 2:16:19
  Speaker 1: a bye as well, though. Yes, they are.
• 2:16:22
  Speaker 4: But going into a bye I think is still not
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 4: a good thing when you go into it on a
• 2:16:25
  Speaker 4: good note, which they did. They had two blowout wins,
• 2:16:28
  Speaker 4: one over their in-state little brother, New Mexico State, which
• 2:16:32
  Speaker 4: was kind of misleading. And I'm not only saying that
• 2:16:34
  Speaker 4: because I'm mad because we had New Mexico State as
• 2:16:36
  Speaker 4: a play on the show here. But it was actually misleading.
• 2:16:40
  Speaker 4: But after that, New Mexico also beat UTEP soundly. UTEP's
• 2:16:44
  Speaker 4: a bad team, but New Mexico going into a bye
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 4: on a good note like that, I think that's not
• 2:16:49
  Speaker 4: a good thing. I think it can disrupt your momentum,
• 2:16:52
  Speaker 4: although it will allow them more travel time to go
• 2:16:54
  Speaker 4: out to Hawaii, which you know is not an easy
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 4: spot for any of these teams from the mainland, which
• 2:17:00
  Speaker 4: is every.
• 2:17:00
  Speaker 1: Team except Hawaii. To have to go all the way
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 1: out to Hawaii, it's not an easy spot.
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 4: Thing to have to do and vice versa it's not
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 4: really that easy for Hawaii to come back to the
• 2:17:09
  Speaker 4: mainland either so yeah I still yeah there are more
• 2:17:13
  Speaker 4: negatives than positives here even though New Mexico does have
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 4: the extra week to travel I don't like that they
• 2:17:17
  Speaker 4: went into that bye week on a really good note
• 2:17:21
  Speaker 4: and up next they got a huge game against North
• 2:17:23
  Speaker 4: Dakota State like I said North Dakota State is one
• 2:17:25
  Speaker 4: of the actual threats to win the Mountain West here
• 2:17:29
  Speaker 4: along with New Mexico and UNLV basically so that's going
• 2:17:32
  Speaker 4: to be a big game North Dakota State so New
• 2:17:36
  Speaker 4: Mexico might be looking ahead to that game so I
• 2:17:38
  Speaker 4: don't like that aspect of this either as far as
• 2:17:41
  Speaker 4: Hawaii is concerned I don't believe they had a week
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 4: off they are having a return from Arizona State with
• 2:17:48
  Speaker 4: no extra week off here but Hawaii is more used
• 2:17:50
  Speaker 4: to that like you know just the travel coming back
• 2:17:53
  Speaker 4: to going back to Hawaii whatever they're coming back from
• 2:17:58
  Speaker 4: getting blown out by Arizona State as well so that
• 2:18:00
  Speaker 4: you know they just haven't looked good and yet while
• 2:18:02
  Speaker 4: this Hawaii team isn't good they're I'm still going.
• 2:18:05
  Speaker 1: To lean to Hawaii in this one. I just think
• 2:18:07
  Speaker 1: it's a tricky spot for New Mexico.
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 4: I don't like the buy potential disruption angle here, and
• 2:18:13
  Speaker 4: I don't like the potential look ahead that New Mexico has.
• 2:18:15
  Speaker 4: New Mexico's a public side. 72% of the tickets, 86%
• 2:18:19
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them, though, so it looks like
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 4: some of the money is also coming in on them,
• 2:18:23
  Speaker 4: but I don't know if that's... I don't know how
• 2:18:27
  Speaker 4: much of an indicator that really is. I think they
• 2:18:29
  Speaker 4: will be a public side. 14.5% is the number. It
• 2:18:32
  Speaker 4: has dropped a little bit from the opener of 15%.
• 2:18:35
  Speaker 1: And it's a low total, 44-44.5.
• 2:18:37
  Speaker 4: So again, getting two touchdowns with the home team here
• 2:18:40
  Speaker 4: with a low total like that, probably how I would
• 2:18:43
  Speaker 4: lean in that game towards Hawaii. And that means, because
• 2:18:46
  Speaker 4: I said I had one more play left, yeah, it's
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 4: in this Nebraska-Oregon game on Fox at 11 p.m. Eastern,
• 2:18:54
  Speaker 4: which I think is going to be it's going to
• 2:18:56
  Speaker 4: make it a little bit more of a difficult spot
• 2:18:58
  Speaker 4: for a central time zone team like Nebraska. You know
• 2:19:01
  Speaker 4: what we're doing with this one, man. Nobody's going to
• 2:19:03
  Speaker 4: want this. Nobody's going to want this. We're going to
• 2:19:06
  Speaker 4: lay the points with Oregon at 6.5 here, man, even
• 2:19:09
  Speaker 4: though I believe Nebraska is, what, a one-loss team here?
• 2:19:12
  Speaker 4: And Oregon is, yeah, Nebraska's 5-1, Oregon's 3-2. Why would
• 2:19:14
  Speaker 4: we lay points with Oregon here? Well, first of all,
• 2:19:21
  Speaker 4: the oddsmakers are telling you something. They're telling you Oregon
• 2:19:23
  Speaker 4: is the better team by the fact that they're laying 6.5,
• 2:19:26
  Speaker 4: even though they have the lesser record here.
• 2:19:29
  Speaker 1: But also, look at what the number was going to be.
• 2:19:31
  Speaker 1: It was going to be 21.5.
• 2:19:33
  Speaker 4: And by the way, I'm in a splash sports... Contests
• 2:19:37
  Speaker 4: where you have to pick seven games every week. The
• 2:19:39
  Speaker 4: number in that one locked at 21 and a half.
• 2:19:42
  Speaker 4: So I have no choice but to take Nebraska in
• 2:19:45
  Speaker 4: that contest, right, at plus 21 and a half, getting
• 2:19:48
  Speaker 4: a number that's 14 points off. Even though I don't
• 2:19:51
  Speaker 4: even like that side, I can't not do that. Like
• 2:19:54
  Speaker 4: that number is just so, it's the most off number
• 2:19:57
  Speaker 4: that you'll ever get in one of those contests.
• 2:19:59
  Speaker 1: So I have to do it.
• 2:20:01
  Speaker 4: But I don't like Nebraska, and it wouldn't shock me
• 2:20:04
  Speaker 4: if they actually wound up not covering that, although hopefully.
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 1: We middle that thing, man. I'm going for a middle
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: in this one.
• 2:20:10
  Speaker 4: I think I have to just leave Nebraska in my
• 2:20:13
  Speaker 4: splash entry. So hopefully Oregon's going to win this game
• 2:20:16
  Speaker 4: by more than 6.5 and not more than.
• 2:20:17
  Speaker 1: 21.
• 2:20:20
  Speaker 4: That's what we need. That's a huge middle, okay? So
• 2:20:23
  Speaker 4: let's try to get that. But yeah, the fact that
• 2:20:25
  Speaker 4: this number was going to be 21 and a half,
• 2:20:27
  Speaker 4: and that was if Dante Moore was going to come
• 2:20:29
  Speaker 4: back for Oregon. He's their starting quarterback, and we know
• 2:20:33
  Speaker 4: he's injured.
• 2:20:33
  Speaker 1: We know that. But this much of a drop-off? Give
• 2:20:37
  Speaker 1: me a break, dude.
• 2:20:39
  Speaker 4: I know Dante Moore is good. I know he's probably
• 2:20:41
  Speaker 4: going to wind up in the NFL. But Is any
• 2:20:45
  Speaker 4: quarterback in college football worth a 14-point drop-off to the
• 2:20:49
  Speaker 4: next guy?
• 2:20:50
  Speaker 1: No way, dude. Just no way. There's no way. So
• 2:20:54
  Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of value.
• 2:20:55
  Speaker 4: Here on what I think is a really short number,
• 2:20:58
  Speaker 4: believe it or not, in Oregon here. I think Oregon
• 2:21:01
  Speaker 4: is definitely the better team here. The power ratings guys
• 2:21:05
  Speaker 4: still have Oregon ranked somewhere probably even close to being
• 2:21:09
  Speaker 4: in the top 10 if you ask them who the
• 2:21:11
  Speaker 4: actual best teams are. So Yeah, I think this line
• 2:21:15
  Speaker 4: is short. Now, of course, the quarterback situation is the
• 2:21:18
  Speaker 4: thing here. Like I said, Oregon is not going to
• 2:21:20
  Speaker 4: use Raiola here because he was so bad in that
• 2:21:23
  Speaker 4: game against UCLA last week.
• 2:21:24
  Speaker 1: They're going to use Brock Thomas here. But I actually
• 2:21:27
  Speaker 1: think that might be fine.
• 2:21:29
  Speaker 4: Either way, I actually think that's fine because I think
• 2:21:31
  Speaker 4: if Raiola was going to play, he'd get up for
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 4: it because guess what? Raiola used to play for Nebraska,
• 2:21:37
  Speaker 4: and he transferred out, so maybe Nebraska kind of wants
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 4: to stick it to him, but he's not going to
• 2:21:43
  Speaker 4: play in this game, so whatever. But I thought Raiola
• 2:21:45
  Speaker 4: might get up for playing against his former team, even
• 2:21:48
  Speaker 4: though he was the one that left them. So it
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 4: wasn't like they traded him away. He left voluntarily, but whatever.
• 2:21:56
  Speaker 4: It won't be Ryola here. Ryola was awful in that
• 2:21:58
  Speaker 4: game against UCLA. Brock Thomas actually looked pretty good in
• 2:22:01
  Speaker 4: that game, so it'll be him. I don't care which
• 2:22:04
  Speaker 4: quarterback it is, to be honest. I like the spot
• 2:22:06
  Speaker 4: and the number a lot for Oregon here. As I
• 2:22:09
  Speaker 4: already mentioned, Oregon's coming off getting, taking a loss as
• 2:22:13
  Speaker 4: a big favorite here against UCLA. Oregon was a double-digit
• 2:22:17
  Speaker 4: favorite in loss, and I talk about all the time,
• 2:22:20
  Speaker 4: I've talked about it on this show repeatedly, but when
• 2:22:22
  Speaker 4: a team is a huge favorite like that and they lose,
• 2:22:25
  Speaker 4: I look for them to bounce back in the next game.
• 2:22:27
  Speaker 4: So I think that's going to be the case here
• 2:22:28
  Speaker 4: for Oregon. But also, it was a misleading result. As
• 2:22:32
  Speaker 4: I said, Oregon, again, seven turnovers in the game.
• 2:22:35
  Speaker 1: Ridiculous. And I think four of them were Ryola, I think.
• 2:22:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and they had four turnovers in their first four possessions,
• 2:22:42
  Speaker 4: like I said, I'm pretty sure as well. So this
• 2:22:44
  Speaker 4: was a misleading result from the get-go. Oregon basically just
• 2:22:48
  Speaker 4: threw the game away with stupid mistakes. And while UCLA
• 2:22:51
  Speaker 4: made a few as well, UCLA was still plus.
• 2:22:54
  Speaker 1: Four in turnovers.
• 2:22:56
  Speaker 4: And when you're plus four in turnovers, you should win
• 2:22:58
  Speaker 4: that game by double digits, and UCLA did not. So
• 2:23:01
  Speaker 4: that tells me that Oregon... Still didn't even play that
• 2:23:04
  Speaker 4: badly in this game... Given the fact that they... Couldn't
• 2:23:07
  Speaker 4: even hold on to the ball... The fact that they
• 2:23:08
  Speaker 4: only lost by two... That tells you that.
• 2:23:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah... Oregon was still like... Basically the better team in
• 2:23:14
  Speaker 1: this game... Even though they got out gained... They got
• 2:23:16
  Speaker 1: out possessed massively... But that's because again... They never could
• 2:23:19
  Speaker 1: hold on to the football... But when you lose the
• 2:23:21
  Speaker 1: turnover battle that bad.
• 2:23:23
  Speaker 4: You should lose that game by 20 points probably... And
• 2:23:26
  Speaker 4: that is not what happened in that game... So yeah...
• 2:23:29
  Speaker 4: I think it's a bounce back spot for Oregon... They're
• 2:23:32
  Speaker 4: staying at home for this, by the way. And a
• 2:23:34
  Speaker 4: lot of times teams will bounce back off of an
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 4: embarrassing effort at home if they're staying at home as well.
• 2:23:39
  Speaker 4: I think you're getting some value because of the quarterback situation. And, oh,
• 2:23:43
  Speaker 4: it gets a lot better because Nebraska is not in
• 2:23:45
  Speaker 4: a good spot at all. They just took their first
• 2:23:48
  Speaker 4: loss of the season after being 5-0. And I talk
• 2:23:52
  Speaker 4: about that, how that tends to result in a hangover
• 2:23:54
  Speaker 4: when you take that first loss of the season. It's
• 2:23:57
  Speaker 4: like all that momentum stops and you can lose the
• 2:23:59
  Speaker 4: same game twice and But it's worse because that loss
• 2:24:04
  Speaker 4: was against Indiana, and Nebraska almost won that game. That
• 2:24:08
  Speaker 4: was a huge game for Nebraska. They were winning the
• 2:24:10
  Speaker 4: game in the fourth quarter, and they only lost by three.
• 2:24:14
  Speaker 4: And they did outgain Indiana by a bit in the game.
• 2:24:16
  Speaker 4: And they outpossessed them by a lot. So, yeah, Nebraska
• 2:24:18
  Speaker 4: actually did play really well in this game. But still,
• 2:24:21
  Speaker 4: any way you look at it, that was a huge
• 2:24:23
  Speaker 4: game for Nebraska and falling just short in what could
• 2:24:27
  Speaker 4: have been a monumental win for them. I think that's
• 2:24:30
  Speaker 4: going to set them up to be flat as well.
• 2:24:32
  Speaker 4: And now they have to go all the way out
• 2:24:33
  Speaker 4: to the West Coast for the first time this year,
• 2:24:36
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure, and play at 11 p.m.
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 1: Eastern, which will be like 10 p.m. their time. Yeah,
• 2:24:42
  Speaker 1: that's not good, dude. I think all of that is bad.
• 2:24:45
  Speaker 4: So I think the biological clock is going to be
• 2:24:48
  Speaker 4: off for Nebraska. You're having to try to adjust to
• 2:24:50
  Speaker 4: that late bio clock, playing basically until 1 a.m. their
• 2:24:54
  Speaker 4: time or whatever it's going to be. It's not a
• 2:24:56
  Speaker 4: good spot, man. and only their second true road game
• 2:24:59
  Speaker 4: of the season. And really, Nebraska, I mean, I know
• 2:25:02
  Speaker 4: they've played pretty well this year, but aside from that
• 2:25:04
  Speaker 4: Indiana game, their resume is not impressive. Their best win
• 2:25:07
  Speaker 4: besides that was at Michigan State. I mean, okay, whatever.
• 2:25:13
  Speaker 1: Even though I think we lost on that game on
• 2:25:14
  Speaker 1: the show too. Wait, did we?
• 2:25:16
  Speaker 4: No, I don't think we could. No, we definitely didn't.
• 2:25:18
  Speaker 4: I think I might be thinking of last year maybe. No,
• 2:25:21
  Speaker 4: we definitely didn't because Nebraska wasn't in any sort of
• 2:25:23
  Speaker 4: bad spot there, but whatever.
• 2:25:25
  Speaker 1: I like Oregon here, man. We're going to do it.
• 2:25:28
  Speaker 4: I know nobody's going to want it. It seems ugly
• 2:25:30
  Speaker 4: as hell, but Nebraska's a public underdog. Again, I'm going
• 2:25:34
  Speaker 4: to warn you about the public underdogs here. 61% of
• 2:25:37
  Speaker 4: the tickets are on Nebraska, so the public, based on
• 2:25:40
  Speaker 4: what they've seen last, based on, oh, Nebraska has the
• 2:25:42
  Speaker 4: better record, and you're giving me all these points, public's
• 2:25:45
  Speaker 4: going to go that way, but the oddsmakers are telling
• 2:25:47
  Speaker 4: you who's actually supposed to win this game.
• 2:25:50
  Speaker 1: That's Oregon.
• 2:25:52
  Speaker 4: I know they have to cover here, but it's not
• 2:25:54
  Speaker 4: that big of a number, as I already said. I
• 2:25:56
  Speaker 4: think it's cheap, to be honest, on Oregon here. 70%
• 2:26:00
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Oregon. It looks horrendous based on
• 2:26:04
  Speaker 4: what happened last week, but yeah, we'll do it. I
• 2:26:06
  Speaker 4: think you can find the 6.5 on Oregon out there
• 2:26:08
  Speaker 4: right now. It might be slightly juiced to the 6.5,
• 2:26:11
  Speaker 4: but yeah, try to find the 6.5 rather than the 7.
• 2:26:12
  Speaker 1: I'd still do it at 7, but 6.5 is obviously better.
• 2:26:13
  Speaker 1: And that's it, man. That's it for the show. It's
• 2:26:24
  Speaker 1: like turning off a TV. Dude, I should switch.
• 2:26:26
  Speaker 4: I should have a different thing, like different screen share
• 2:26:28
  Speaker 4: there where it switches. I got to get all fancy
• 2:26:31
  Speaker 4: and make it like a TV that you switched off
• 2:26:34
  Speaker 4: or something.
• 2:26:35
  Speaker 1: Anyway, my plays for the card. Florida plus 11.5.
• 2:26:38
  Speaker 4: Tennessee plus 8. Vandy minus the six. Nevada, Nevada plus 14.5.
• 2:26:47
  Speaker 4: And Oregon minus 6.5. Those are my five plays for tomorrow.
• 2:26:52
  Speaker 4: Usually I have about four. I felt like I was
• 2:26:55
  Speaker 4: being a little bit too selective, so I did throw
• 2:26:56
  Speaker 4: Nevada into the mix there.
• 2:26:58
  Speaker 1: I do like it.
• 2:26:59
  Speaker 4: So those will be the five plays. Hopefully the market
• 2:27:01
  Speaker 4: read when we look at it tomorrow will agree with
• 2:27:03
  Speaker 4: all of them. It looks like it's mostly in agreement
• 2:27:05
  Speaker 4: with most of them anyway.
• 2:27:07
  Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with myself, though, and I like all
• 2:27:09
  Speaker 1: the spots. Those are the best bets. There you go.
• 2:27:12
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tote on Twitter. Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like,
• 2:27:15
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here. We got some new graphics
• 2:27:19
  Speaker 4: and shit that I'm trying out. I might need to
• 2:27:21
  Speaker 4: make this look a little bit better when I turn
• 2:27:23
  Speaker 4: off the screen share. Or I guess I could flip
• 2:27:26
  Speaker 4: to this at the end.
• 2:27:27
  Speaker 1: Oh, but that doesn't look good either. I'm in the
• 2:27:30
  Speaker 1: middle of the overlay.
• 2:27:32
  Speaker 4: I need to do something where I can quickly drop
• 2:27:34
  Speaker 4: the overlay at the same time.
• 2:27:35
  Speaker 1: Whatever.
• 2:27:36
  Speaker 4: Stream yard things anyway um yeah learn to turn on
• 2:27:40
  Speaker 4: twitter learn to turn on instagram like subscribe to this
• 2:27:42
  Speaker 4: channel here you'll get notified every time i go live
• 2:27:45
  Speaker 4: i'll be back in the morning no sleep because there's
• 2:27:48
  Speaker 4: going to be a big hockey slate at least so
• 2:27:49
  Speaker 4: we'll probably have some hockey to deal with as well
• 2:27:53
  Speaker 4: um What else? My Instagram videos and whatever, I'm putting
• 2:27:58
  Speaker 4: out more like clips and stuff now too.
• 2:27:59
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to do that. So yeah, hopefully we'll get
• 2:28:02
  Speaker 1: some more views over there. Check it out. Maybe we'll
• 2:28:05
  Speaker 1: get onto the TikTok as well.
• 2:28:07
  Speaker 4: Maybe eventually we'll see. I've got, the show's also on audio.
• 2:28:11
  Speaker 4: You can check it out there. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Covered
• 2:28:15
  Speaker 4: in Uke is my ukulele channel on YouTube. So you
• 2:28:17
  Speaker 4: can check that out. Patreon.com slash learn to talk. If
• 2:28:20
  Speaker 4: you want to throw me some support over there. Mostly it's,
• 2:28:23
  Speaker 4: uke requests and a uke uh feed there which i
• 2:28:26
  Speaker 4: still have to update i know with the halloween season
• 2:28:28
  Speaker 4: stuff i've done so far sorry i've been kind of
• 2:28:32
  Speaker 4: busy even though it's like well you do nothing toad
• 2:28:33
  Speaker 4: well yeah i don't know i do a lot of
• 2:28:36
  Speaker 4: stuff for this channel right now and all the handicapping
• 2:28:39
  Speaker 4: um you know it is it takes it takes a
• 2:28:41
  Speaker 4: bit of time um loser cast is the other thing
• 2:28:45
  Speaker 4: every tuesday night yeah that's gonna do it Thanks, everybody,
• 2:28:49
  Speaker 4: for hanging out. Good showing tonight, man. Maybe we'll be
• 2:28:52
  Speaker 4: bumping up the numbers here on this channel. Hopefully, I'm
• 2:28:54
  Speaker 4: giving out wins and good information and helping people with
• 2:28:59
  Speaker 4: their handicapping process. When you first listen to what I'm saying,
• 2:29:03
  Speaker 4: you're going to think I'm crazy. But look, man, this
• 2:29:06
  Speaker 4: is the way that I've done it for two decades.
• 2:29:09
  Speaker 4: If you want to see my record, I usually only
• 2:29:11
  Speaker 4: have it up for the morning show, so that's the
• 2:29:12
  Speaker 4: record right now.
• 2:29:14
  Speaker 1: So there you go.
• 2:29:15
  Speaker 4: I skipped today's... But yeah, we're running at a profitable
• 2:29:19
  Speaker 4: percentage there.
• 2:29:20
  Speaker 1: So there you go.
• 2:29:20
  Speaker 4: And that's not including any favorites really above like minus 140.
• 2:29:24
  Speaker 4: Except I think I might have had one during the
• 2:29:26
  Speaker 4: World Cup during this run.
• 2:29:28
  Speaker 1: But that's about it. I appreciate it, everybody. Back in
• 2:29:32
  Speaker 1: the morning.
• 2:29:33
  Speaker 4: Peace.
• 2:29:37
  Speaker 2: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 2:29:41
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer.
• 2:29:43
  Speaker 3: Let somebody know you do not have to lose this
• 2:29:50
  Speaker 3: round alone.
• 2:29:56
  Speaker 2: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 2:30:03
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 2:30:11
  Speaker 3: bad luck bites hard But it don't get the crown
• 2:30:19
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Stay with me now Hold on,
• 2:30:30
  Speaker 3: hold
• 2:30:31
  Speaker 2: On You're still here now guitar solo