Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 170 - 11/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 170 - 11/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 170 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday, happy Thanksgiving week.
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That's right, before you know it, few days from now we'll be
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getting down on some football and some Turkey with some family
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hopefully, which is always one of my favorite holidays.
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We have to power rank the holidays one day.
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I mean maybe, maybe that'll be fun.
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I love Thanksgiving, football and family and food.
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I love I love Halloween for whatever reason.
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Of course I celebrate both Hanukkah and Christmas.
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Can't beat those 4th of July. Anyway, here I am going on a
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tangent about holidays. But anyway, happy Thanksgiving
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week. We got a lot to get to on
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today's podcast as we get back into the groove.
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Hope you guys had a good weekend.
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I have a 5 pack of sweats for you tonight, including 2 plays
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on Monday Night Football. One play, hopefully you got the
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good number. Last week on the pod when we
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talked about it, I would also have a player prop that jumped
1:21
out to me. And then 2 plays in college
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basketball. We got a lot of these like you
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know, Maui Invitational, all these different you know, kind
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of neutral court situations here.
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But I did find 2 kind of short ish money line plays.
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Looking at good sharp line moves.
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Hopefully can come through for us.
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We're getting back to our short money line system and then also
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a play in the NBA. Looking at a total here.
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Haven't bet a ton of NBA recently, but I've been kind of
1:45
waiting to pick my spot and I found one tonight with a good
1:47
line move and a good rhythm edge.
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Then I'm going to give you a couple early bets for NFL week
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13. Can you believe it?
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We're already week 13. But there is a play on
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Thanksgiving that I really like and I think we should bet right
1:59
now. I actually bet it right before
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the pod and then I have a really sharp dog to fave line move in
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favor of a team that annoyed me yesterday, but also is playing a
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team that I think is completely packing it in and is a great
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fade at this point. So a couple early NFL bets for
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Week 13 and again A5 pack for tonight.
2:17
Reminder, all the best bets from the All Systems Go pod are now
2:20
available on Juice Reel. I'm going to continue to tweet
2:23
out each day the link to the All Systems Go social page on Juice
2:27
Trail. If you want to support the pod,
2:29
if you want to get the best bets a little early, hopefully get
2:31
good numbers, you're more than welcome to follow it.
2:33
Is 499 five bucks a cup of coffee per week.
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Think of that as a tip jar. If you enjoy the pod.
2:40
Is it? Where is this pod worth 5 bucks
2:41
a week to you? I hope it is, but it's a good
2:43
way to let me know you appreciate the hard work that I
2:46
put in hosting this pod each day.
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Now looking back toward the weekend, great Friday and
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Saturday, Friday, if you guys remember, and it was a while
2:53
ago, but two and 1 + 0.82 units. We had the UTSA Temple over that
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thing sailed over what you'd love to see.
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And then the UNLV under against who was at San Jose State that
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came through. Only loser was Arizona and
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college hoops. Duke was too good unfortunately,
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but still two and one 0 + 0.82 day on Friday and then a great
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Saturday. 4 and 1 + 2 point O1 units.
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We got a winner in biting in the arena.
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Our guy Zhao Long, or is it Long Zhao?
3:22
I always screw that up, but he came through with an epic winner
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for us, knocked the guy out in the third round.
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So it's good to see a UFC winner.
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And then good day in college football.
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Arizona State, great win there Against BYU.
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It got crazy because they stormed the field and they had
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to get back and then was it over?
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Was it not? There's a second left, BYU
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almost threw a Hail Mary touchdown but luckily came up
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five yards short. But Arizona State money line
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came through. I love that Kansas game against
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Colorado. Kansas getting it done, winning
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outright as a three-point dog. Air Force also came through.
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They were up, then they were down and they came back.
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So it's a great hit with the Air Force game.
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Only loser was UCLA plus 3 1/2. What was it?
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Plus I forgot the number. Was it 4 1/2?
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Five is actually I think +5 you might have gotten and they lose
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by 6. So even our one loss on Saturday
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was probably a close one that should have came through.
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But either way, good Saturday. 4 and 1 + 2 point O1 units
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yesterday. Kind of a frustrating day in the
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NFL. 2 and 3 -, 1.52 units. We need to get the Packers,
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which was pretty much no sweat. Got a decent money line price on
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that one because it shot up all the way to I think they're like
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-5 -. 6 Chicago Bears. Oh my God, that sweat took 100
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years off my life. But they were able to actually
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cover that number and they scored late, then they had an
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onside kick and then they kicked the field goal and they went to
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overtime. And I'm like, wouldn't it be
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classic Bears for me to hold a + 3 1/2 and then for them to come
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back, force OT, and then have the Vikings score a touchdown
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and win it, Win it by 6 points. I was like, I know this is going
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to happen. Luckily it didn't.
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Luckily they walked it off with a field goal, but the Bears came
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through. But then frustrating plays.
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The Cardinals completely didn't even show up yesterday.
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I love that bet. If you guys noticed that
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Cardinals money line, we got it like a pick em.
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They end up closing at -1 -, 1 1/2.
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So we beat the closing line, but Cardinals just pathetic.
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Kyler Murray threw a pick 6 in that one couldn't do anything
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offensively coming off the by the Cowboys under.
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Oh my God, we need to I don't know what's going on, but we're
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having so many sharp unders that look good for 3/4 then get blown
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out in the fourth quarter and they've been really frustrating
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cuz that Cowboys under 45 1/2 entering the fourth quarter, it
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was a seven to six Game 7 to 613 points.
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They score 41 points in the fourth quarter.
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Absolutely disgusting. So that was a tough one.
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Then the Rams again, Eagles were too good.
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Eagles. I don't Eagles are they are they
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a Super Bowl contender? I don't know.
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They look pretty damn good last night, but the plus 3 did not
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come through. Unfortunately, the Rams and the
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public got that one on Sunday night.
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So either way, guys, Good Friday, great Saturday, little
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bit down on Sunday and we can all thank the Cowboys under for
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killing us in that one. Let's turn the page literally
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and figuratively kicking off a new week here, the holiday week
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of Thanksgiving. Let's see if we can start our
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holiday week on a hot note, hopefully.
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So I want to start off with some NFL.
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Of course, we have Ravens chargers to finish up week 12
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here. I'll set the stage.
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I'll give you my bet and then I'll give you the player prop.
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So coming in this one and again, have you guys heard that they're
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Harbaugh's are playing each other?
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Oh my God, if I hear another stupid tweet or something about
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the Harbaugh brothers, it's like I get it.
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I get it. They're brothers.
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They're coaching against each other.
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Anyway, let's put put that to the side.
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Ravens come in seven and four, however, did just have their two
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game win streak come to an end Member.
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They lost to the Steelers 18 to 16 as a three-point Rd.
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favorite. That was good because we had the
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Steelers in the points there. Chargers seven and three.
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They've won four straight. Just edged the Bengals 3427 last
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week covering as a one point home favorite.
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Love that because we have the Chargers in that one.
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Now, what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, this is a game we talked about last week on the pot.
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So hopefully you're already holding Chargers plus three.
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I'll tell you what to do my recommendation if you aren't
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holding a three. But anyway, I like the Chargers.
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Baltimore open this game as a three-point Rd. favorite.
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Everyone's playing Baltimore. They say Baltimore's the better
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team. Maybe they don't believe in the
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Chargers. Maybe it's just, hey, Lamar
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Jackson, this high flying Ravens offense only lane three.
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However, even though you're getting 76% of bets at
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DraftKings and I think 73% of bets at Circa on Baltimore,
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despite being the very big popular public play, this line
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has fallen in favor of the Chargers.
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So is Baltimore -3 now it's down to 2 1/2.
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And think about it. Why are the odds makers dropping
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the line on Baltimore? To make it easier for the
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favorite for the public to cover with the favorite when they're
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already playing Baltimore to begin with?
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Why are they giving the public a better number?
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Oh, you like Ravens -3 well, here's a 2 1/2.
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So public is saying, you know, let's double down.
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Better number. We like them anyway at 3, let's
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play them at 2 1/2. But you guys know anytime you
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see heavy betting on one side, but the line goes the other way.
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RLM sharp reverse line move tells me smart money.
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Took Chargers +3. Now I'm holding a + 3.
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I've tried to mention this in the pod.
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Maybe you're holding a three as well.
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If you couldn't get the three, which is very important.
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It's a key number here. It's the most key number.
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I think you have a couple options.
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One games at 8:15 tonight. Wait it out.
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A lot of these books are -2 1/2 Baltimore, but it is juiced up
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toward Baltimore -2 1/2 at -115 so you could just wait it out.
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See if naturally one book gets back up to three, you could
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consider buying it up. Like I'm looking at one shop
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that is -2 1/2 - 120 Baltimore, but it's plus 2 1/2 + 100 for
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chargers. So you could take chargers up to
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three at around -120 you know, that could be worth a look.
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Or you could consider a teaser play if you like the teaser
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here. Again, great spot for Chargers
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plus 2 1/2 to plus 8 1/2. That's the Wong teaser.
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The if you ever want to, you know, kill some time if you're
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go on vacation, you want to read a book, read.
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I think it's called sharp betting by Stanford Wong.
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But he's why they call it a Wong teaser because he kind of really
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highlighted the fact that not all teasers are are are winners.
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In fact, a lot of them are teased because they end up
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losing. But if you tease through the
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three and the seven, the key numbers, you're going to win at
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a higher rate. So maybe you tease up Chargers.
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Now, if you tell me you want the 2 1/2 at plus 100 -, 105, save
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the juice. I, I give you the power to do
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that as well. It's your choice, but to me, my
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number one play here is what I'm holding, the +3.
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So try to get the three. If not, maybe you see Chargers
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and a teaser, but Chargers have a lot of kind of boxes checking
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off in their favor #1 contrarian and heavily bet game, they're
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only getting 2526% of bets and a heavily bet Monday Night
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Football game. Primetime dogs getting 2 1/2
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points or more. They're 55% against the spread
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since 2020. Justin Herbert, when he's
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getting, when he's a dog, getting 2 1/2 or more, he's 12
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and 8 against the spread, 60%. John Harbaugh, I was curious
10:03
about how he covers numbers because he's 7, two and one ATS
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this year, but he's 45 and 26 ATS, 63% in his career in the
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NFL going back to his 49ers days.
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Lamar Jackson, by the way, he's been great as a dog, 12 and two
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against the spread, but as a favorite, he's only 36 and 37
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ATS 49%. So we've seen a pretty good
10:24
angle here to play Jackson as a dog, but maybe think about it
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twice if you're going to play him as a favorite.
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And then if we continue with the system matches here, another one
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that kind of caught my eye is, you know, this is a big game in
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terms of difference in style. We know the Ravens can score.
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Chargers aren't very good, aren't quite as good
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offensively, but Chargers are really good as a defensively.
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I should say Chargers only giving up 14 1/2 points per
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game. Baltimore is giving up 24.6
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points per game. So big edge defensively for the
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Chargers to hopefully keep this thing close.
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You don't want to get into a shootout with the with the
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Ravens. And then also, if you look at
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home Rd. Ravens are only three and three
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on the road. LA is four and one at home.
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So they played pretty well at home.
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In terms of the total, it looks pretty clear there's a lot of
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over money here. At open 47 1/2, you're all the
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way up to 50 1/2 or 51. Now if you look at the splits,
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50% bets, 59% dollars on the over.
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Undecided public but heavy betting on the over 62% bets 69%
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dollars on the over at circa a sharp book.
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And then you have seen Monday Night Football overs do very
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well this year if you play the over on Monday Night Football 10
11:35
and 471%. So again, a lot of kind of
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angles here are pointing over. My concern why I'm not playing
11:42
the over is I have a lot of systems on prime time unders,
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prime time unders when the total is 49 or more, they've been
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really, really good when the total is just 50 or more in
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general, the under 67%. So I'm going to lay off that
11:54
total. But again, if you tell me like
11:56
the over, you know, you do have that Monday Night Football
11:59
overtrend and you do have the line taking up.
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Now if you want to play a teaser, I'm thinking out loud
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here, but Chargers 2 1/2 to 8 1/2 and maybe you take that
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total 50 1/2 down to what, 44 1/2 and go over there.
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That could also be worth a look. So I'm going Chargers plus
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three. I've had it in pocket, which
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just means I've already bet it last week mentioned on the pod.
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But again, wait for the three. You could buy up the three, you
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could shop for it, you could tease it, but I'm going Chargers
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+3. And then my player prop I, I was
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thinking, hey, we are in a Dome, so the weather's perfect.
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We have a very high total of 50 or 51 1/2.
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Maybe we look towards some offensive guys going over
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tonight. And I landed on one player in
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particular, Joshua Palmer. So if we Joshua Palmer can show
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up tonight, I'm going to go Palmer over 35 1/2 receiving
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yards. Now, first thing I like about
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this is that rhythm has Joshua Palmer projected for 47.3
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receiving yards. So that is about a 12 yard edge
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there toward the over. The other angle I like with
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Palmer is the fact that he's gone over this number in six of
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his last seven games. So you'd think public would
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hammer this over, but public has the memory of a goldfish.
13:15
What have you done for me lately?
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They remember in prime time last week, he only had two catches
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for 23 yards. So I think there's a hesitation
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on the part of the public of, hey, you know, do we really want
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to go Palmer over only at 23 last week?
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But I actually kind of like that because it creates a bylaw
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opportunity on Palmer to have a good game.
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Ravens, by the way, dead last in the NFL and passing yards a lot
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per game. I wouldn't have expected that.
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I kind of thought their defense was decent, obviously not to
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give up a lot of points, to give up a lot of yards in the air,
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284 1/2 yards per game. And then again, indoor game high
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total, as well as the fact Chargers are a dog.
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So if this does become a bit of a shootout, you have to throw
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the ball. So hopefully Joshua Palmer gets
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targeted quite a bit here. I'm on Palmer over 35 1/2
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receiving yards. Again, Rhythms got around a 47
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and I'm on Chargers +3. So can we get at least one of
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those? Could we have a great night and
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get to that? Would be awesome.
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Now let's go over to some college hoops.
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A lot of college hoops games today.
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There's some afternoon sweats. I don't know if anyone is
14:17
partaking, but I found a couple games tonight that kind of
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checked off a few boxes for me. So the first one here, McNeese
14:25
State, like McNeese State, McNeese State is playing
14:29
Liberty. I'll give you the breakdown
14:31
here. This is the championship game,
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the Paradise Jam, which is in, I believe, Where is it?
14:37
Saint Thomas, Virgin Islands, I don't know if anyone's been.
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Sounds pretty nice to me. But anyway, I'm going to go
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McNeese State here. It's a championship game for
14:45
this for this tournament and we've seen sharp line movement
14:48
toward McNeese State this game Open Liberty listed around a one
14:53
point favorite, 1 1/2 point favorite, neutral court.
14:56
Now it's flipped to McNeese state -1 1/2.
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Some shops even up as high as -2 I even saw 2 1/2 earlier before.
15:04
There may be a little buyback on Liberty, but a couple things
15:07
like about McNeese State rhythm has them winning the game by
15:10
about 1/2 point. It's not a huge rhythm edge, but
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it's a really good bet split play because if you look at
15:16
circa at Circa Sharp sports book, great book, have you never
15:20
been? But only 50% of spread bats
15:23
around McNeese State, but 81% of money is on McNeese State.
15:28
Then also DraftKings on the money line, ticket count, only
15:31
53% bets, but 88% money. So low bets, higher dollars,
15:35
both spread in money line, heavy here on McNeese State.
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Shop around. I got McNeese State on the money
15:41
line. I want to say it -120 -. 125
15:45
somewhere around there. Big advantage, offensive
15:48
efficiency. They ranked 74 in the country
15:51
versus 87 for Liberty. Big offensive rebound edge, 30%
15:55
versus 25%. And then also free throw
15:59
shooting because again, tight game, neutral court spreads only
16:03
1 1/2. Two, you got to knock down your
16:06
free throws. They can really, really make the
16:07
difference between a win or a loss. 73% from the free throw
16:11
line for McNeese only what I have here, only 60% for for
16:18
Liberty. So they've really struggled when
16:20
it comes to their free throw shooting.
16:22
Also, I'm going to put a little bit on experience.
16:24
If you go to the Ken Palm breakdown for each game, it'll
16:28
give you all these different stat categories that I mentioned
16:30
and then if you scroll the bottom, it gives you some
16:32
interesting other ones. One is experience.
16:35
The average experience from McNeese State, 2.875 years.
16:39
So basically most of their guys have been, most of their guys
16:42
are think of it this way, like like, you know, juniors or
16:45
seniors. Look at the other way with
16:48
Liberty, average experience 1.96 years.
16:51
They're more like, you know, freshman, sophomores.
16:53
So you have a more experienced team.
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We have a dog to fave line move. We have really good bet splits
16:59
and we have some good offensive advantages here.
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Free throw shooting, rebounding, inefficiency, rhythms.
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Got him winning by half point. I'm going to go make nice state
17:07
here, hopefully win the damn game.
17:09
I got him at -125 That's an 8:00 game.
17:12
Now let's go to a 9:00 game. Abilene Christian playing
17:16
Southern Miss. I'm going to go Abilene
17:18
Christian here. Guys really like this line move.
17:21
By the way, this is always like to look at the name of these
17:24
tournaments, the Basketball Travelers Invitational in
17:27
Bozeman, Mt. So I think they're disappointed.
17:30
All these other teams are Maui Invitational or Virgin Islands.
17:33
They have to go to Montana. So anyway, I find that kind of
17:36
funny, but one sided movement toward Abilene Christian.
17:40
Abilene Christian open this game at around a 2 1/2 point, neutral
17:45
site favorite. We've now seen Abilene Christian
17:48
get but up to -3 1/2, some shops even inching toward -4.
17:53
So it's been very clear, very consistent, 1 sided in favor of
17:56
Abilene Christian. Now Ken Palm has Abilene winning
18:00
by three. Rhythm has Abilene, I want to
18:03
say winning by, let me double check here.
18:06
They have them winning by around 3 as well or almost, you know, 4
18:09
points right now. Again, they're at -3 1/2.
18:13
I money lined Abilene. I got them at -170 at Caesars,
18:16
but Ken Palms got them ranked way higher, 2O four in the
18:19
country versus 265. Really good spread percentage at
18:22
DraftKings. 76%. Don't love that it's public but
18:25
it's a late low back game. 92% money on Abilene and then money
18:29
line 66 percent, 89% so another low bets higher dollars
18:34
discrepancy. All the stack categories favor
18:36
Abilene. Offensively they are ranked 244,
18:41
doesn't sound great but 294 for Southern Miss.
18:45
Defensively they ranked one 49247 for Southern Miss.
18:49
So better offense and defense, 3 point shooting, big edge here,
18:53
36% for Abilene, only 25% for Southern Miss.
18:57
And their effective field goal percentage, 49% versus 47%.
19:02
But it's been pretty clear from the start, all movement toward
19:04
Abilene Christian. So Ken Palms got him winning,
19:07
Rhythms got him winning. Good bet splits here, advantage
19:11
offense and defense, 3 point shooting.
19:13
I'm going Abilene Christian to win this damn game.
19:16
I got him at -170 so McNeese State and Abilene Christian, two
19:20
money line bets if you are interested in sweating them with
19:23
me for tonight. Now, let's go over to the NBA.
19:27
One game that caught my eye on the NBA.
19:29
Looking for an over Magic Hornets.
19:32
Magic Hornets coming into this one.
19:35
We have. Let me just dial it up for you.
19:38
Pull up this game. So we have the magic coming in.
19:42
They are 11 and seven. Charlotte is 6 and 10.
19:45
Both teams are off yesterday. So one day rest here.
19:49
Now, in terms of the side, we have seen a move up toward the
19:51
magic -4 up to around -5 - 5 1/2.
19:54
But I'm gonna play the over here.
19:55
I noticed a pretty good over move.
19:57
This total opened around 211 1/2.
20:00
It's now been bet up to 213. Some books even getting up to
20:04
213 and half. So I got over 213.
20:06
That's available right now, FanDuel and Caesar's.
20:09
But I like this bet splat Circa. Again.
20:12
Why do I keep referencing Circa? Well.
20:14
At Visen, where I am a content writer and sports betting
20:17
analyst, we used to have DraftKings percentages.
20:20
Now we got Circa. But I like comparing Circa to
20:22
DK, and Circa is a really good, obviously great time if you want
20:27
to just hang out and sweat games.
20:29
But the more important thing is that they pride themselves on
20:31
taking in sharp action. They're not going to limit you.
20:34
They're not going to tell you to go away.
20:35
You're too sharp. They they like and they're smart
20:37
about it because a lot of books will limit betters because they
20:41
say, hey, you're winning now I'm only going to let you bet, you
20:43
know, 20 bucks a game. However, that's kind of short
20:46
sighted because it's important that these books know what the
20:49
wise guys like because they can use that that information to
20:52
their advantage anyway, circa only getting 25% of bets, but
20:56
67% of dollars on the over again, that is a huge low bets
21:01
higher dollars bet split. Now rhythm has a projected total
21:04
of 214.1. So even even though you might
21:07
have missed the over, 211, 1/2 to 14.1 is the final projected
21:12
total and we're getting in over 213.
21:15
It's a relatively short spread, 55 and a half.
21:17
So maybe it's competitive back and forth.
21:19
Both teams are top 16 in pace. Charlotte is 13th, Orlando is
21:24
16th. So hopefully we get up and down
21:25
the court, score some points. I want to bet against Charlotte
21:28
as well because they are 20th in defensive efficiency.
21:31
They don't play a ton of defense.
21:33
And then also maybe This is why the public is maybe hesitant to
21:36
play the over. These are two under teams.
21:39
So Charlotte is 9:00 and 7:00 to the under, Orlando's 10 and
21:42
eight to the under. And I like it when something
21:43
doesn't make sense. I used to kind of think I'm
21:46
smarter when it doesn't make sense.
21:47
Like, hey, they're wrong, I'm right.
21:49
But you learn to embrace the fishy side.
21:50
Like if both these teams are under teams, why did the total
21:53
rise? That tells me that despite being
21:56
under teams, maybe the specific matchup is a good angle for some
22:00
offense. So Magic Horn at 7:00 tonight.
22:03
I'm rooting for points. Give me the over 213.
22:06
Now, little, little, you know, wet your whistle here early for
22:10
some Thanksgiving Day games. One in particular that I bet
22:14
today, Miami, Green Bay. Now, I was a little bit
22:17
intrigued by Miami. They open plus 3 1/2.
22:19
They're down to three at some shops, although some shops look
22:22
like they're getting back up to 3 1/2.
22:23
But then I'm like, oh, to a, you know, Florida guy, you know,
22:26
Hawaii guy going to Green Bay and the weather, I don't like
22:29
that. And the weather is a factor
22:32
here. So I'm going to play the total
22:33
and I like the under. I bet the Dolphins Packers under
22:37
47 1/2. It opened as high as 48 1/2.
22:40
Immediately got bet under. But I really like the bet split
22:43
here. Only 33% bets, but 72% of money
22:47
is on the under at DraftKings. The also the other angle here is
22:52
the weather projected forecast here in Green Bay at Lambeau
22:56
Field. And by the way, this is your
22:57
late game when you're all hopped up on tryptophan after eating
23:02
and watching football day. This is your 820 game.
23:04
This is the game I get to watch with my dad, which I'm excited
23:07
about. But 25° fifteen mile per hour
23:11
winds gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. So it's going to be cold windy
23:16
at Lambeau. That's good for an under windy
23:19
under system match. And then also, if you look at
23:21
this spot, the Thanksgiving Day night game since 2005, the under
23:26
is 11 and six. So basically historically, and I
23:30
don't know if it's because, you know, maybe it's just the prime
23:34
time under contrarian edge to the under, or maybe it's
23:37
something about Thanksgiving. Maybe it's a short week where
23:40
again, you probably don't install a lot of, you know,
23:43
creative offensive things. It's more vanilla.
23:45
You don't have as much time to game plan.
23:47
But for every reason those some those Thanksgiving night games,
23:52
11:00 and 6:00 to the under since 2005.
23:54
So they've done pretty well here.
23:56
Maybe the other angle here is, you know, it's a holiday, you're
24:00
thinking about family. You just want to maybe get the
24:02
game over and, and get out of there.
24:04
Who knows, forever reason, it could be wrong, could be right.
24:06
But we have seen these prime time Thanksgiving night under
24:09
games or night games do very well to the under.
24:12
So I put it in now under 47 1/2 kind of a key #27 it's a 20
24:18
game, you know, 2423 game, you land on 47.
24:22
That hook could be important. So I said screw it, let's grab
24:24
it now. Miami, Green Bay under 47 1/2.
24:28
And then the other bet that I just put in, I told you this is
24:31
a team that let me down or annoyed me yesterday.
24:33
And it was actually annoyed me in a weird way and annoyed me
24:36
the Seahawks, because I had the Cardinals and the Seahawks won.
24:40
But then I look toward this week and Seattle is going to the New
24:44
York Jets. And we've already seen a really
24:46
sharp line move towards Seattle this game.
24:48
Open Jets around A1 1 1/2 point home favorite.
24:52
It's immediately flipped to now Seattle -2 1/2.
24:56
So right off the bat, dog to fave line move on Seattle.
24:59
Seattle Rhythm is predicting Seattle to win by three.
25:04
A lot of system matches here and this is a money line play for
25:07
me. I was able to get Seattle on the
25:08
money line at -130 and that was at I want to say either fan
25:13
either FanDuel or Caesar's, but they would match as a road
25:17
favorite. Rd. favorites straight up this
25:18
year are 51 and 1973% non conference favorite.
25:23
And then also I want to bet against The Jets.
25:25
Jets are a dumpster fire. Aaron Rodgers.
25:29
Again, the story came out, if you missed it, that Woody
25:31
Johnson wanted to bench him. They've already fired their
25:33
coach. They fired their GM.
25:35
This is a team that's spiraling and Seattle's a team that is in
25:39
the driver's seat to maybe win their division.
25:41
So I like Seattle in this in this spot.
25:44
I think it's a short number and I think if you if we wait too
25:46
long -130 money line might be -150 before you know it.
25:50
So give me Seattle dog to fave early sharp move.
25:53
I'm on the Seahawks money line already put it in to the Juice
25:56
Reel app at -130 So Seattle money line in Green Bay, Miami
26:01
Thanksgiving night under 47 1/2. That about does it for episode
26:05
170 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
26:09
Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
26:11
where we wrap things up and I start by first asking you a
26:14
favor. 1st, I'm going to thank you.
26:16
Thank you so much for tuning in each day, taking the time out of
26:19
your busy lives to listen to these breakdowns.
26:22
It means a lot to me. I always think about, you know,
26:24
you're one of my friends. You're listening to my voice.
26:26
I probably have never met you, but I consider you a friend.
26:29
And if you're listening, it means that you're data-driven
26:32
and you want to get better at sports betting and you want it
26:33
in your you care and you realize the importance and you respect
26:37
the data in the market. You've learned to respect it.
26:41
So thank you, of course, for listening each day.
26:44
And then also, could you do me a favor?
26:46
Could you do something that will make me very happy?
26:49
Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
26:52
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, click five stars.
26:55
It takes you 2 seconds, but it would mean a lot to me because
26:58
I'm trying to get those five star reviews up.
26:59
I think we're up to 200 and 62180 somewhere on there.
27:05
Let's keep going. The more five star reviews, the
27:07
more the more listens, the more exposure, the more the pod can
27:11
grow. So please give it a five star
27:13
review. If you want to leave a good
27:14
comment, that's great. If you want to recommend it to a
27:17
friend or click the follow button, that would also be
27:19
fantastic. And seriously, I do appreciate
27:21
you guys so much. Secondly, if you want to learn
27:24
more about data-driven betting, you want to support the pod.
27:27
You have some friend in your in your life or colleague or Co
27:30
worker or family member, someone who's into sports betting or
27:32
wants to get into it and loses a lot or doesn't know where to
27:35
begin. Guess what?
27:37
I got the perfect gift for them for this holiday season.
27:40
You should buy them a book called The Everything Guide to
27:43
Sports Betting. That's right, that's my book.
27:45
I wrote that a few years ago, but it's got everything I've
27:47
learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
27:49
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
27:52
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to go
27:54
contrarian, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
27:57
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
27:59
Betting. So grab a copy and bring it to
28:01
the book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
28:03
buy you a beer or ginger ale next.
28:06
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
28:09
Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, I highly
28:11
recommend that you get on that right now.
28:13
Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions
28:16
for player props as well as game bets.
28:19
And then also Juice Reel where the ASG best bets are now posted
28:23
each day. You can follow them, but you
28:26
also can tail the Robo Jackson AI driven best bet pics you
28:30
could if you want take advantage of the arbitrage system matches
28:34
the sharp mush indicators. It's great to shop for futures
28:37
prices. It'll quickly find you the best
28:39
number if you want to play. You know, I noticed one big move
28:43
to the offensive rookie of the years, Bo Nicks.
28:45
I think he's down to plus 110 and Jane Daniels is down to like
28:48
-130 so again, find the best number with with juice real.
28:53
But again, both are data-driven sports betting apps that help me
28:57
win. I'm confident they'll help you
28:59
win. So go give those seven day free
29:01
trials a shot, download the apps and you'll be off and running.
29:05
But that about does it everybody on a big Monday of Thanksgiving
29:07
week. I actually believe it or not
29:10
have to go up to New Hampshire. I live in outskirts of of of
29:14
Boston. New Hampshire is only about 20
29:16
minutes off the road, but I got to go pick up a honey baked ham
29:19
that I am now tasked with to bring back to my my parents
29:23
house so we can have that for for Thanksgiving.
29:26
But anyway, get your get your Thanksgiving Day plans all set
29:29
and hopefully we can have a good week here.
29:31
But as always, I'm going to leave you with a couple things.
29:33
One whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
29:37
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
29:38
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
29:41
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
29:45
neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
29:47
desert where the true grinders get down.
29:49
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
29:52
juice possible is found at the South Point.
29:54
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
29:56
swimming pool. Excuse me, when you cash a big
29:58
ticket at Circo, whoever it may be, you going to show me some
30:01
some good winning tickets since Friday a UTSA temple over UNLV
30:06
San Jose State under Zhao Long getting it done in the UFC,
30:10
Arizona State, Kansas Air Force, the Packers, the Bears.
30:14
Whatever you do, do not show me that Cowboys under what?
30:17
What is it about these unders where we're sharp as a freaking
30:20
tack and we're looking great going in the fourth quarter and
30:23
then they just they just go off and score a million points.
30:26
Hey, that's betting. Sometimes it happens.
30:28
But guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
30:30
you. We're going to post about the
30:31
book sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long.
30:34
So wish you the best luck. Everyone have a great Monday
30:36
night. Be back at it tomorrow for
30:39
another edition of the ASG pod. But as always, I'm going to
30:41
leave you with this up down, treading water, fighting for a
30:45
win, whatever the case may be, the product, the the process, I
30:50
should say, never changes. And if we can stay true to the
30:53
model against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
30:56
bet, avoid parlays, get some closing line value, be on the
31:00
sharp side. Will the sharp side always win?
31:01
No, sometimes it won't. Sharp side is going to win 55 to
31:05
60%. That means between 45, you know,
31:08
40 to 45% of time it's going to lose.
31:10
But here's the thing. If we can stay true to the model
31:12
and bet get games that fit our model with our head and not our
31:16
heart, we're going to be successful sports betters.
31:19
So enjoy the sweats everyone. We got a 5 pack tonight.
31:22
Let's see if we can scratch and claw and try to get three of
31:24
them. He got a winning day and I'll be
31:26
right back at it for a big Tuesday edition of the All
31:29
Systems Go pod. That'll be episode 171 and we'll
31:32
get after it tomorrow as well. So have a great night everyone.
31:36
Good luck and I'll see you tomorrow.
31:38
Take care.