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Daytona Rule Changes Explained... It's Going To Be WILD · Racers Odds

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Racers Odds.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'm David Stiles.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_01: He's Andrew Curland.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: Ryan Blaney captures his third victory of the season, his 20th career win overall in New Hampshire at the Dollar Tree 301.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: And it was a wild and wacky race on Sunday as we saw some wet weather tires.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Shane Van Gisbergen led a handful of laps.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: And I thought that maybe that matchup bet that I shorted you last week between him and Priest was not going to go so well.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Then they came down pit road on the competition caution.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: They put some slicks on, and then everything went back to normal.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: And we ended up cashing that ticket as Priest was able to etch out another top 10 finish on the season with a ninth place finish.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: And uh that was really probably one of the better bets that I had.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: I ended up finishing the week minus$3.80.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: So I know last week on the show, me and Andrew were almost head to head on a lot of things we didn't agree on very much, and I think he got the better of me last week.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of my matchups didn't really go the way that I felt.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: I was kind of hoping that uh Blaney was not going to be as good, but he made the uh made a liar out of me and he looked really, really good.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: And uh Ty Gibbs and Kyle Larson, I know that one was up in the air from last week, Andrew.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: They finished right beside one another, Kyle Larson right ahead of Ty Gibbs.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: So I was pretty close on that one, but that's why we call it gambling.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: Ty Gibbs uh outperformed what we thought uh was he was gonna do at New Hampshire at the very least.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: But uh looking back just really quickly on that weekend, man, what a weekend it was.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: I had so much fun on pit road.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: There were so many storylines and things to follow, with the tires being what they were, with uh pit road issues, uh, whether it be Denny Hamlin um not knowing his team not knowing what tires to change or to do what, Chase Elliott put the wrong tires on the wrong side or the right side, uh Christopher Bell hitting a crew guy.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: Um there was a lot of action to cover, but um I was thoroughly entertained by that New Hampshire race.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: But looking at Daytona this weekend, talking to some people, including including some crew chiefs, they say Daytona is gonna be wild.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: And uh with this new package, they they're not gonna know what they have, they're gonna qualify on it, and that's really all the data that we're gonna get from the race car before we go green.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: And when we go green in the race, they're gonna have to figure out what it feels like in pack conditions.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Handling is gonna be super key.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: It always is at a July uh or August night race in the summer at Daytona.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: Um so I've got my eye on a few people that I'm looking at in terms of who who I think will perform under the unknowns.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but talking to Travis Peterson, crew chief for Spire Motorsports, he said we're not gonna know really what we have until stage two.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: So if uh the smartest minds are on the case and they still don't know what they're gonna get by the middle of the race time, I think uh we're in store for a show.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: The changes that Andrew is talking about, they're gonna change the tapered spacer on these vehicles.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: They went from 0.89 to 0.84 inches.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: They're also going to decrease the horsepower slightly from 510 to 465.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: And then the spoiler is going from 7 inches to 4 inches, and there's no practice this week.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: So they really won't know what they have until they get into race conditions.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: And so these races are already really hard to short anyway because of the unpredictable nature that they lend themselves to, where we will see a big crash at some point.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: It will be a race of attrition.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Who can keep their car not crumpled up like an aluminum can to get to the end of the race?
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: And we may end up seeing a, you know, unpredictable winner.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: I know Daytona, this is a cool stat.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: It is the track that has the most first-time winners.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: It has 24 first-time winners.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: It is also the track with the most overtimes, with 25 overtimes.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: So this track just lends to a lot of carnage and a lot of unpredictability.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: And there are a few guys that you can look at, and there are a few other ones that I would stay away from.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: One of the guys that I'm looking to stay away from, and I'm actually going to bet against this week, is Denny Hamlin.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at his average finish in the next gen car at this track at Daytona, his average finish is 26.9.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: I know that he's a former Daytona 500 champion, multiple Daytona 500 champion, but this has been historically his second to worst track since the next gen car has been implemented.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: He's in a matchup with Carson Hosevar.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: Carson Hosovar is one of our super speedway winners from this year.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: Got his first win ever at Talladega.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: They're in a matchup together, minus 115.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to lay a few units on Carson Hosovar, and those spire cars just seem to be really, really good at this type of track.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: You talk about Carson Hosovar since the beginning of 2025.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: He has seven top tens at Super Speedways.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's impressive with the unpredictability of what these races provide.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: I like him for a top 10 bet.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um there's a few other guys I'm looking at, but really Daytona's hard because it's such a wild card.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Um I don't know whether or not to lean Ford this weekend.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: And the only reason I say that is when we were at Echo Park Speedway, the big conversation there was do you want straight line speed or do you want handling?
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the Fords ended up winning with the straight line speed because it was under the lights, it had cooled off after the rain, and they just dominated that race.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm hearing Daytona's gonna be more handling.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: And the Toyotas would have greatly benefited from a handling type of race at Echo Park Speedway, which is why I'm leaning Toyota.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: This guy's never won at Daytona, but I like his speed there.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: He's he's come so close to the Daytona 500, and that's Bubba Wallace.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: Um, has the second best average finish among drivers who are active right now at 14, which I mean, all things considered at Daytona, that's not bad.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and he's also got five top tens since 2025, the start of that season at the style of racetrack.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: So Bubba Wallace is a guy I'm looking at, Zane Smith, also really strong here.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., kind of a wild card.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Every time we go to Daytona, he's proven he can get to victory lane.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh those are just some of the drivers that I'm looking at.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: But um I think the biggest thing is who can just adapt the best.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: And and that I think we're gonna find our winner coming out of that.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: When I was at Echo Park earlier this year, when Blaney won that race, we had talked to Paul Wolf, who is actually Joey Logano's crew chief, and I asked him how do they set this, how do they set their cars up for these style of tracks?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: Now I know Echo Park and Daytona are vastly different, but he said we want to give them as a balanced race car as possible.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: And Ford has been very, very good at winning polls at these style of tracks.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm actually going to go where Andrew is a little tentative to go, and I think Ford will win this race.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: You can get that bet on Caesars.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's plus 165.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: The other two, they're a little bit longer odd, but I like this Ford.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_01: They're the favorite to win at plus 165.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: The other little stat that I like about this, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have all led the most laps at super speedway tracks in the next gen car.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: Joey Logano, 708 laps at drafting tracks.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: Ryan Blaney, 507.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: And guess who's in third?
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: It's Austin Cendrick with 421.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: So that that's a pretty interesting little nugget if you look at that just on the drafting tracks.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: And these four teams tend to work really well together.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that that's a not a safe bet, but I like that bet a lot.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so if you're willing to put a few units on that and ride the momentum, because these tracks have lined up really, really well for Pinski down the stretch here at the end of the season before we start the chase.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that plus 165 has got some pretty good juice on it.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: And let's take a look at the cut line, too, because there's a battle there as to who's actually going to make our postseason.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Bubba Wallace is all but locked in.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: He is plus 75 to the good.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: He needs just two points, and he will clinch his spot in Daytona.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Austin Cindrick plus 44.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: I still think that's pretty safe.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: He just needs 33 points in the race to actually clinch it.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: If he can stay out of trouble, I think he can uh at least control his own destiny in some senses.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then this is where it gets interesting.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: Shane Van Gisbergen plus 31.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: He'd clinch with 45 points.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: He's the last driver in.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: Ryan Priest, first driver out, minus 31.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: And David, I'm curious what your thoughts are on him.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: But he said after New Hampshire, we're gonna we're going on all offense here.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: And while these guys are gonna be racing careful, we're gonna be going for stage points.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna be doing everything we can to points race our way in to the postseason in the chase.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Brad Keslowski, last mathematical guy that's eligible, he'd need kind of a miracle.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: He's minus 66.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: You basically need to win the race, and you probably need some stage points to go with that.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: But um, do you think Priest has a shot?
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: I I think 31 is still a lot of ground to make up, especially at Daytona.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: There's been two instances where Ryan Priest has outscored Shane Van Gisbergen by 30 plus points.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: He did it at Las Vegas, he scored 33 points, Shane Van Gisbergen scored one.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: He did it again at San Diego.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: Shane Van Gisbergen had a chance to win that race if he hadn't got wrecked by Austin Hill.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: And at San Diego, Ryan Priest scored 45 points to Shane Van Gisbergen's one point.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not out of the realm of possibility.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: They're actually in a matchup together.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_01: Priest is favored at minus 135 to Shane Van Gisbergen's plus 100.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: I'm putting the money on Priest to finish better than Shane Van Gisbergen in that matchup because I think, again, the Fords work really well together.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: And there are three cars for RFK where they're going to try to get Keslowski and Ryan Priest both into this postseason, and it's doable.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the only caveat is I don't think Keslowski is going to be able to make it.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at previous Daytona summer races, a stage winner has never gone on to win the summer Daytona race.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: Keslowski is going to need to win some stages and then also capitalize on getting a race win.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's going to happen.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think it is more likely that Ryan Priest can overcome the point deficit against Shane Van Gisbergen.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: And he is right.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: He needs to go on the full offensive and try to get as many points as possible because you cannot just run around in this race and hope that something bad happens to Shane Van Gisbergen.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: Hope is not a strategy.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so I like that Ryan Priest is already up on the chip and saying, hey, look, we're going to go for it and we're going to do our best to get in.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I agree.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: They're matched up.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: Shane Van Gizbergen's plus 100.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: Ryan Priest is minus 135.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: I like Ryan Priest at minus 135.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think he he's got more to race for in terms of he's he's got to be finishing better than Shane Van Gisbergen.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: SVG, all he's got to do is manage the gap.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um even though that's minus odds, I do like that um minus 135 for Ryan Priest in terms of that heads up.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: But um those are really, I think, all the big storylines going into Daytona.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: Uh obviously, there's a lot of movement still to be done within the actual chase.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's drivers that can uh, you know, Christopher Bell, he is in fifth in the standings.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: He can't move up, but if he has a bad enough race, he can fall to 11th in the standings.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: Carson Hosevar, uh, same thing.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: He can move all the way up to fifth, or he can drop to 15th.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and so there's still a lot of fluid uh space to run within the Chase standings here, which I think is um certainly an interesting thing because every spot in the standings is more or less points that you're gonna start with in Darlington next weekend.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: And so while we look at the cut line and we look at the the big picture storylines, there's a lot of stuff going on everywhere you look in the standings that can really shake things up before we start the chase.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: But um those are my thoughts on Daytona.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: Do we want to get to pick them?
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the only thing I'll add is I've got a couple more bets.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: The gap from fifth to eighth is only 31 points.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: So to me, that is wild.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: Every point matters, and you'll have to maximize it.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: The other couple of bets that I have, this is one of Chase Elliott's better tracks.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: I know that I bet on him last week for a top 10.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: Didn't happen.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: He did win the matchup last week against Byron.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think that he'll have a little bit of a resurgence this week.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: I know that the front bumper for Chevy is still a big question mark, and we've got all of these unknowns, but this is typically one of Chase Elliott's better tracks.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: They run really well here, they qualify really well here.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: So I think a top 10 for him at plus 150 is also pretty solid.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_01: Then two matchups.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_01: We talked about guys to stay away from.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: Historically, Brisco's not really good at this track, but he's matched up against someone who has never won a super speedway race, and that is Kyle Larson.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm fading Chase Briscoe against Kyle Larson.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_01: They're both even odds at minus 115.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_01: We'll put a few units on that 19 team and the Toyotas.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: The last one that I have, Daniel Suarez versus Eric Jones.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: Both of them very good on speedways.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to say that Suarez is a little better than Eric Jones this upcoming weekend, and he's got a few more uh players to help him.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: Both of his teammates, very good super speedway racers, and he's also a really good super speedway racer.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: So there are even odds as well.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: Minus 115 for both of those.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: It's a flip of the coin.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: So I like Suarez a little bit better than Eric Jones, and that kind of rounds out my bets for this week.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: I've been pretty aggressive here down the stretch.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_01: Like I said at the top of the show, I lost$3 last week, but we're still up$271 on the bet book.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: So we're doing pretty well.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: We're getting down towards the end of the season, but this is the final race before the marathon that is the chase.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: And so let's go in to pick them.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_01: I know that I'm down by a ton.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_01: You had a really good week last week.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: You had Austin Cendrick.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_01: He had 25 points.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: He ran really well.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_01: I was hoping Ricky Stenhouse would do a little bit better.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: It didn't materialize.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: He got nine points.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: I probably should have picked him for this week, but uh, you know, I'm going with the strategy and we'll see what happens.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: So I I get to pick, right?
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: You get to go, yeah, you get to pick first.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna pick we're gonna pick Ty Dillon.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: So so I'm gonna save save one of my uh other big guns for the remaining ten races, and then hopefully uh we'll get to pick pick all of those guys towards the end.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: And we, you know, we're I don't know who you have left.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't looked at the sheet in in a day or so, so uh it may be interesting as we get into these last 10 races after this weekend.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: I uh I'm gonna pick the guy you wish you picked this week.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go with Ricky Stenhouse Jr., proven Daytona winner.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: I've had I've had him slide it at this Daytona slot uh all season long, and my strategy paid off.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: I was trying to save Ricky for Daytona, so give me the driver number 47.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: I like it.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: Is he in the Chef Boy RD car this week?
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: Because I really like that Hayek Chef Boy RD car, man.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's pretty slick.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: So I know you're down there in Daytona.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: You're excited uh for this Saturday night race.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: The second Saturday night race we've had here in the summer.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: So I always like Saturday night racing, and Daytona on a Saturday night just feels right in the summer.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm really excited for this one.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: Any closing thoughts as we wrap up this episode of Racers Odds, Andrew?
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: No, I'm I'm I'm excited to be at Daytona.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, it's one of my favorite places in the world, and uh it's cool that we're finishing off the regular season here at Daytona.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's not going to be the case next year, so we uh we ought to celebrate the chaos, the craziness, and um the Daytona night race, which is always a show.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: There you go.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: It's about injecting some fun into your weekend through these bets so you don't just have to follow your favorite driver.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Hopefully, if you're following along, you're allowing your bankroll to continue to grow.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what it's all about.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: We're not here to get rich quick.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: It's about having fun and and hopefully investing this money a little bit more wisely.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_01: You can catch us on YouTube.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: Make sure to like, comment, subscribe.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: We're also on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for listening to us and commenting and liking.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: Leave us a review if you would like, and we try to reach out and uh comment on all of those videos and stuff that you uh leave your remarks on.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: So for Andrew Curland, I'm David Stiles.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for stopping by, Racer's Odds.