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Rays/Yankees MLB + WNBA + NFL HoF Game Best Bets Thursday 7/31/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We are on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Own four that have not had a good season. Man
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: with bookends.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: Slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: a new peak.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: don't know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: March ninth? I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: what data is anymore. Man, back with you.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: The worst day that I could possibly have with you,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: To the slump series, the slump discontinuous, The slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: It's towed back with you. This is Thursday, better off dead.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: July thirty first, the end of July, the end of
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: a not very good July. I believe it's a down
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: July for me because I am still tracking everything, even though,
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: like I said, I have not been actually betting at
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: these games for now at least, but I am giving
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: out what I would be betting anyway. Yesterday was a
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: slight loss of one and one. I apologize the Milwaukee
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Brewers that play.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: That was a lot.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, got just take it. I mean it was
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: you gotta take it.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: It was at least an easier one to take because
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: that was just Dad right away.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So whatever.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: Both games were done in the afternoon, and then an
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: easy win on the under in Pittsburgh San Francisco. I
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: mean that game was I think one to one into
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: the eighth or ninth inning.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: There, It's like, okay, even if this game goes.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Into extra innings, it's pretty unlikely that thing's gonna go
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: over the seven and a half, So that was a winner.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: I will give up one MLB play today, actually eve
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: though it's a very shortcart, a very short board. Today
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: we have three baseball games, we have one w NBA game,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: and we have the NFL preseason beginning is last week.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Last Thursday was the last Thursday without football until whenever.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Man until February, I guess, or not February January, I guess,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: whenever of them. Whenever the NFL gets into the playoffs
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: and we no longer have Thursday games anymore.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: That's crazy.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: We're gonna have a lot of I don't do a
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: whole lot with the preseason, but I will talk about
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: this particular game. I mean, I think there might be
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: an angle or two to maybe work within that game.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to give out a play on it
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: because I am not that much of a masochist.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: But we'll start with the WNBA.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: Golden State at Washington is the only game here today.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Golden State.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Of course, I gave them out as a play two
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: days ago, and they pulled off the big upset against
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: the Atlanta Dream.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: So I think they're in kind of a letdown spot here.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I believe they're playing a third straight road game.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: Now. They are already on the East Coast here, but
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: they're having to come off that big win, upset win
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: over Atlanta, which I was correct about on the show,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: by the way, and now they have to go to Washington.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: This is not that easy of a spot in my
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: opinion for Golden State.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Washington somewhat in this game.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: Washington staying at home coming off an easy win over
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: the really bad Chicago Sky which I saw one highlight
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: from that game highlight more of a low light with
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Angel Reese basically driving to the basket. She basically had
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: a sure lay up and just completely missed the basket.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: I'm like, this is just insane, dude, that's what you
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: get with. So you have that and you have dildose
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: being thrown on the court in Golden State Atlanta WNBA. Man,
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: It's there's no way this league would exist if it
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: wasn't being propped up by special interest. Man, I would
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: have to imagine. But yeah, I would lean to Washington
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: in this game. All that being said, Washington up from
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: three and a half to four here, not.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: A huge line to have to lay, really, if you
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: like them, I think it's a little bit misleading. Really.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: I think public might look at that and think, oh
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: my god, Golden State just won their last game against
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: a good team, and you look at their records, the
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: records very similar. Almost seems like it would be kind
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: of easy to take the points with Golden State. But
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: that is not what I would look to do here. Washington,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: by the way, is way better at home. Nine and
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: five Valkyries only four and nine on the road. So
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: even though I know I played them on the road
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: or gave them out as a play last time, but
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: let's go to MLB. This is the rundown, I guess
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: the short rundown. I'm gonna skip the first game because
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give out a play in the first game,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: which is the afternoon game between the Yankees and the Rays.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: They're actually finishing their series.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: And then we have two night games Atlanta and Cincinnati
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: and Texas Seattle. Those teams are starting new series here,
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: so Atlanta and Cincinnati. Cincinnati does have a travel edge
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: because they're just staying at home, but they are coming
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: up beating the Dodgers. Both teams have similar bullpen usage
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: after yesterday, so I think the bullpens are.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Kind of a wash.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: They're both kind of mediocre bullpens anyway, but Cincinnati could
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: be in a little bit of a letdown spot after
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: beating the Dodgers.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: But again, they're not traveling.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is traveling in from Kansas City, so Atlanta does
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: have travel here, not too much travel though, just kind
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: of staying in the Midwest area basically. So bullpens, I
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: think we're a wash travel spot, probably in favor of Cincinnati.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: Probably gonna give Cincinnati the offensive edges. Atlanta's offense just
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: really has not come together at all, and I like
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati is starting pitcher better, So I guess we have
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: to do with all that information what we can here, Zach,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: what's up?
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Man? Fuck the Yankees is right? Bullshit? That they won
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: last night? Man, I'm not a fan of that. Looked
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: like they were gonna lose the game. I'm pretty sure.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: They wanted dramatic fashion, which is something to take into
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: account today, but I might be still kind of going
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: against that type of thought there. Yeah, the Royals the
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: most elite offense in MLB history. Obviously, and Atlanta has
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Carlos Carrasco pitching today, and I forgot this guy existed.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: I think he's been heard. I think he did pitch
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: at the beginning of the season. He's been injured since then.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: I didn't even know what team he was on, to
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: be honest, I thought maybe he'd retired five point nine
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: winning RA this year one point five to three whip.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: He was not pitching well.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: When he was pitching, he was way worse on the
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: road two with a three A nine point two sixty
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: RA on the road terrible. I guess he has been
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: on Atlanta, but I completely forgot because he hasn't pitched
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: it's the beginning of May. I'm assuming he's been injured
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: because I don't think he's a guy that they would
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: just take out of the starting rotation just because he
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: has so much of a career behind him. It's not
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: really something that you do. I mean, maybe, I guess
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: you might send him to the Miners.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe, but.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Probably unlikely really, especially with the Braves not really being
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: a good team anyway and having started pitching injuries. Yes,
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: Carlos Carosco has been on the Indians, the Mets.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I forget where else he's been around.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: Man. Actually, it's just those two teams, and then I
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: guess he went back to the the Indians. I'm still
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna call them the Indians. He was back with
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: them last year. I forgot he went back to them. Yeah,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: but he's just not a very good pitcher. I mean,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: he's he's had, like I mean, he has had a
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: long career, so he's a serviceable picture. He's more of
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: a control picture. He doesn't blow guys away, but he's
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: towards the end of his career. He's in his late thirties.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Up against uh, who are you talking about here? Cincinnati,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: he probably doesn't have that much track record against them
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: because they're in the National League. Well, he was on
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: the Mets though, and he on Cleveland. Cincinnati is their
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: natural rival. But yeah, only fourteen at bats against Cincinnati.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: They are six for fourteen Offen with a Freily home
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: run though in a walk and two strikeouts, four to
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: twenty nine. Batting average one thousand and one eighty one ops.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: So crossco. I'm not expecting a whole lot from him, man.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: Even though a lot of times you have a veteran,
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: they come back, They get pumped up to pitch in
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: a game, but I'm not so sure it's gonna go
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: too well for him here, man. I mean, I think
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: he's well beyond his years and his numbers don't look good.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Against Cincinnati.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: He's up against Cincinnati's ace Andrew Rabbott, who's been really
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: good this year. Two point h nine ERA, one point
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: oh seven whip. He's been really good at home, despite
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: the hitter friendly nature of this ballpark. One point nine
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: three ERA at home. He's pitching well this month, even
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: though he had the All Star Game distraction come in
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: there and pitched in the All Star Game.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: He's continuing to pitch well.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in his last
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: three starts and in almost all of.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: His most recent starts.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Actually, last month he allowed one or fewer and four
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: of his five starts, so only two starts within that
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: span is he allowed more than two earned runs This
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: month nineteen to six strikeout walker ratio three point one
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: to three ERA, including starts on the road against Philadelphia
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: and the Mets, so not easy opponents to face on
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: the road. He's pitching well going up against the Atlanta
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Braves here. He has nineteen at bats against, some seven strikeouts,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: no walks. Pretty good numbers here, two sixty three, batting
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: average five to seventy nine oh ps. So quite obviously
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: you have to give Andrew Rabbitt the edge here. As
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: far as the starting pitching his concern, Cincinnati's moved up
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: from minus one to fifty five to minus one sixty three,
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: so it looks like maybe some of the money is
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: indeed coming in on Cincinnati.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I would hesitate to really do that, though.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: I mean I would lean to Cincinnati because they do
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: think they have a big starting pitching edge, maybe like
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: a run line in the first five innings, But it
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: seems like a bit too much of a price here,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, given that they are still kind of in
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot off of beating the Dodgers, I wouldn't
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: quite want to do it. But you know, the bullpen
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: situation kind of a wash, and I think Cincinnati's offense
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: is actually better, so Cincinnati does have some edges there.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: Texas at Seattle the later game tonight. Seattle returning on
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, although they stayed on the Pacific
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: coast so they don't have to adjust to a new
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: time zone, and they actually split the series of the
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Anaheim and then lost the series at the A's, so
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: they actually lost their road trip there. Seattle of course
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: making news again because they just traded for Eugenio Suarez
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: or wherever you pronounce his name, you Henio Suarez.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Dude.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: It just seems like Seattle and Arizona are colluding at
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: this point, Like, how could the bit the two biggest
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: trades that have happened, How could they both involve Seattle
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: getting big name players. I mean, it's kind of ridiculous.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: So Seattle now has Suarez and nail Or from Arizona.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: Seattle's really going for it this year, man, so they are.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Suarez is gonna be there yet, though.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: My guess is he's probably not going to be in
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: the line up tonight because it's a quick turnaround time.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: He's got to get there and you join the team
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: and whatever. Seattle is also in a bad spot though,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: because they're returning home from a road trip. As I
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: always say, even though they're not switching time zones, it
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: could be a bit of a distraction when you come
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: back home. So I don't love the spot for Seattle.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Texas is staying on the road, and they're staying on
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: the Pacific Coast too, as they're also traveling up the
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Pacific Coast from California. They were just in Anaheim. Texas
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: won yesterday at Anaheim. Texas has the better bullpen out
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: of these two teams. Seattle obviously has the better offense,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: although their offense is worse at home, but it is
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly ballpark, so then you have to figure
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: out what we're gonna do about the starting pitching matchup.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: If anything, Kumar.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Rock Or, the only Indian Major League Baseball player seems
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: like he should be playing cricket, is pitching for the
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Rangers here. He's been really up and down for the
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Rangers so far. He does have good stuff, so I
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: think he does have a pretty high ceiling.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: But we will see.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: Manim that diarrhea ball has not taken full effect yet.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Five point seven to three ERA, one point four to
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: four WHIP not good numbers on the season. He's been
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: really bad on the road nine point nine one ERA
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: and allowed eight of the nine home runs he's allowed
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: at home in fewer excuse me, on the road, in
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: fewer innings pitch.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: He's been way worse on the road.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Texas has done fairly well in his recent starts, the
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: winning five of the last seven of them this month.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: He has mediocre numbers still, four point nine to five ERA,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: sixteen to nine strike out walk ratio, So I'm still
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: not convinced that he's pitching well right now. I mean,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: he's walked three piece in each of the last two starts.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: That's not good.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: Didn't make it five innings and two of the last
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: three starts, so that's not a good sign either. Up
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: against Seattle, I believe he doesn't have good or no,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: he does have good numbers.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I was wrong. I looked at this this morning and
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I already forget.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Thirty one at bats twelve three strike out walk ratio
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: is what he has against Seattle. He sell him to
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: a very low two to twenty six average, but they
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: do have some extra base hits, including a home run
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: from Canzoni or Canzone seven to fifty three OPS, so
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: the OPS is a little bit high against Seattle, but
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: he does do fairly decently against Seattle overall. George Kirby
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Seattle four point five RA, but a
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: one point one to five WHIP is really nice. He
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: is starting to turn around after he's come back from injury.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: He is better at home, although four point zero five
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: YRRA this year is not that terrific, but he's pitching
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: better recently. Three point eight six CRA this month last
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: month also at an Thera in the three is really nice.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Strike out walk ratio cross basically that entire stretch twenty
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: seven to seven this month, winning three of the four
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: starts this month and last or his team has won
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: three of the four. Actually he himself has gotten the
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: win in three of four, so that was correct as
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: well and last month. Thus Seattle actually did win four
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: of his last five starts last month. So Seattle is
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: winning behind George Kirby. Kirbeam against Texas very weak offense
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: that Texas has, he's done really well against him. In
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: a huge one hundred and thirty three at bat sample size,
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: he's pretty much dominated them.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Twenty nine to five.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Strike at walk race here two eleven average allowed five
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: thirty two ops. So George Kirby, I think you got
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: to give him the upper hand in the starting pitching
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: matchup here. So all that has to be taken into account.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: The money line has really shot up on Seattle for
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty to minus one seventy two.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I think that number is too high. I mean, I
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: don't think it's worth it.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: Even though Seattle does have the better offense and the
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: better starter here, Texas still has the better bullpen. I
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: checked the bullpen rest earlier this morning, and I don't
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: think it's that. I think Texas actually is a little
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: bit more rested, actually, so they definitely have the bullpen edge.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Seventy tickets, seventy six percent of the cash on Seattle.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: I would to disagree with that sentiment, but I'm just
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: not so sure that. I mean, I don't think I
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: would lay a price like that with Seattle. And the
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: total is really low at seven and a half. It's
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: gone up a little bit to juice to the over,
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: but eighty percent of the tickets and only fifty percent
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: of the.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Cash on the over.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: But I don't know that I would trust Rocker Man
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: to keep this thing under the total either. So it's
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: not gonna be a play for me there. Nancy Pelosi
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: did that? Does she actually called George Floyd George Kirby?
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Really? Is she?
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: Is she a baseball watcher? I mean, I have no idea, man,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: that's I don't remember that. That's crazy. Let's go to
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: the best bet here. We're gonna get out here in
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: short order here, But I am gonna talk about the
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: NFL game as well. Not gonna talk about NFL preseason
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: a whole lot on the show. I don't really do it.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: But the best that first is gonna be the first
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: five innings Tampa Bay Rays.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Man, it looks like the money is agreeing with this.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: Yankees down for my just one to fifteen to minus
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: one oh five, sixty percent of the tickets, eighty one
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Rays.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: So the money's kind of coming in on the Rays here.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: I'm just focusing on the starting pitching matchup here, right.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: I think the Rays do have an advantage. The Rays
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: used a lot of their bullpen last night, so I
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: don't want to deal with that. The Rays trying to
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: even up this series. It was a tough loss for them,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: man eleven innings. They had the lead in the ninth inning,
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: they blew it. They had the lead in the tenth inning,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: they blew it, and then they lost in the eleventh inning.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Absolutely terrible.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I agree that maybe Tampa Bay's
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: mental state won't be that great after a loss like that,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: but it's still the Yankees. I think they're still gonna
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: be focused here. Tampa used way more of their bullpen yesterday,
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: so that's why I'm a little bit worried. I'm worried
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: about both bullpens really, because the Yankees don't really have
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: that good of a bullpen. Tampa's is decent, but the
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: rest scenario looks really bad for Tampa's bullpen. So I'm
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: just gonna limit this to first five innings here. Yes,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: the Yankees have the better offense, but the starting pitching
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: matchup definitely is an advantage to Tampa, man to the
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: point where you can get the Yankees almost an underdog
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: price almost at home in the first five innings, which
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: that just looks really crazy to me. I think the
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: public is basically gonna be back on the Yankee train
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: after last night, more or less, and I think they're
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: gonna see a short price like that, And I think
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: it makes sense to take the.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Name team like the Yankees.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: But I actually like Ryan peppio Man as I keep
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: saying three point four to two era one point one
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: to five whip for Tampa this year.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit better on the road three
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: point three to five, yarra.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: Although I know this is a tough a Yankee lineup,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: a tough stadium. In to pitchion, this month, he's been
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: pretty pretty good. Three point sixty six, three point six, oh.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Y ra, excuse me.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Thirty two to twelve strike a walk ratio. Yeah, it's
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: too many walks. Seven home runs allowed as bad as well.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: So he's been getting hit by the long ball. That's
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: been his one major issue. Though the walks have been
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: that much of an issue this year.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: It's the long ball. Twenty one home runs.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Allowed this year, so that is a problem, so we
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: do have to worry about that a little bit. He's
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: been okay against the Yankees this year, but I'll show
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: you his historical numbers in a minute. He had one
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: six inning start at Steinbrunner Field against the Yankees, so
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: that was a good sign because that's a similar stadium
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: to this one. He went six innings, seven strikeouts, one walk,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: held him to three earned runs, so he did allow
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: two on runs in that one. He was home run
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: free in the one game he pitched he year, but
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: he didn't make it out of the fifth inning and
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: he allowed two runs and only had one strikeout in
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: that one. It was not the greatest start for him,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: although it wasn't really that terrible. But I think we're
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: gonna get a bounce back here. I know Tampa's lost
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: his last four starts, I know, but he's only allowed
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: more than a three earned run in one of those starts,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: so it really hasn't been his fault. And he's gone
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: six innings in every single one of them. We just
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: need to get him to get us through five here.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: And his numbers against the Yankees' bats are actually better
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: than you would think. Fifty nine at bats, fourteen to
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: four strikeout walk and of course, remember Judge is still
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: out now, so Judge was in the lineup for those
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: other games. Judge might be somebody who does do damage
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: against Pepio. He's out of the lineup right now because
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: he's injured. Fourteen to four strikeout walk rash here for
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: Pepio against this current lineup, one eighty six batting average,
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: allowed five to seventy seven ops. So actually really good
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: numbers for Pepio against this lineup.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: So I like that. Andrew, what's up man?
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out and on the other side of things,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Marcus Stroman.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I think is quite clearly the worst of these two pitchers.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: Man six point zero nine ERA one point five to
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: nine WHIP, very bad numbers for the Yankees. He's been
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: even worse at home seven point one point one ERA
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: at home, and he's already allowed four home runs at
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: home in twelve walks in nineteen innings at home. So far,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: he's been really bad at home. Last start was at
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: home against Philly, and he was awful three and two
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: thirds innings, four and runs allowed, four walks. He's been
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: bad overall Man. He's come back from injury recently. He
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: came back at the end of June. Even his start
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: at the end of June, even though he only allowed
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: one run in five innings to the A's, he only
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: had one strikeout, so that's not a good sign. And
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: then this month he has a four point five to
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: eighty RA which is very mediocre and fifteen to seven
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, which is not very good. Either a
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: last or only the last start he failed to go
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: five innings, though he's made it five innings in the
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: other three, so he wasn't awful in those other three starts,
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: but He's not a good form right now.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: He's not a very good pitcher anyway, man.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, he's been just kind of a back
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: end of the rotation type of guy for the Yankees,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: and his numbers against the Rays are pretty bad and
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: fifty eight at bats they hit him well eleven strikeouts
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: to five walks. That's not a great ratio for Stroman.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Four Tes and Low both have home runs off him.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: He's allowed a three ten average and eight forty eight ohps.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: So Stroman has not done well against Tampa. So I'm
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: gonna go with it with the first five inning matchup there,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay money line. That's gonna be my only play
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: of the day. And now let's finish it off man
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: by going to talk about the NFL.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: I know it's August.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: I mean it's not even August yet, it's still July,
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: and we have an NFL game today.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: This Lion is already dropped by the way.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: It's Chargers Lions playing in the Hall of Fame game
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: in Canton, Ohio.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Here, Lions had flipped from plus one.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: At the opener to minus one and a half, but
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: they were actually at minus two and a half when
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I looked this morning, and some money must have come
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: in on the Chargers to drop it all the way
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: back down to one and a half.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: And I agree with that move.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: I think the Chargers of the right side in this
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: game fifty four percent of tickets, only fifty two percent
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Lions. The Lions, I mean
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: based on what they did last year, the fact that
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: everybody knows the Lions have that really prolific offense. They
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: were a very public team this past year, and we
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: know the public likes the Lions, so that's.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Where they're gonna go here.
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: But the Chargers they play this ugly style of ball
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: control offense under Harbam, So the public doesn't like the
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: Chargers basically. So I think we're gonna find a decent
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: amount of value on the Chargers this year. And I
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: actually I think it starts here because of course the
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: public thinking all the Lions are this great offensive team. Well,
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: this is the first game of preseason. Man, you know
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: the starters are not going to play in this game,
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: so you have to look at the backups. So for
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: week one of the preseason, a lot of what you
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: want to look at. Even though I'm not really a
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: preseason NFL better, but a lot of what you want
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: to look at in the first week is you want
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: to look for the teams that actually have the more
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: experienced quarterbacks that are going to be in the mix,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: or the better quarterback depth.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: That's really what you want to.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Look for, and those are the types of teams I
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: think you kind of want to play on in the
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: first week of the because it's hard to predict what
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: else is gonna happen with you know, the backup defenses
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: and the backup you know, the other players on the
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: offense or whatever. The quarterbacks are actually a little bit
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: more predictable. You kind of know what the quarterback rotation
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: is going to look like for these teams. So that's
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: kind of what you have to look at. The total
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: in this game is also ridiculously low. It's up from
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: thirty two to thirty four, sixty nine percent of the
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: tickets and sixty seven percent on the over. It looks
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: like a very low total, which it is for the NFL,
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: But this Hall of Fame game is notoriously low scoring
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: because it's the first game of preseason. Man, the offenses,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: you're gonna have backup offensive players in there. The offenses
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: like haven't even really learned the schemes yet necessarily so,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: and a lot of times the offenses are gonna want
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: to just keep themselves vanilla because they don't want to
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: show what they're actually gonna try during the regular season.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: So a lot of things come into play that lead
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: these games to be really low scoring.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Although that total is.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: So low that I probably would not go under that total,
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: and it's already moved up a little bit, but I
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: think the best way to play this is actually the
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Chargers are the Lions, by the way, I believe they
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: replace both of their coordinators, so that could be an
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: issue this year, even though they still have Dan Campbell there.
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: I think they have a new offensive and defensive coordinator
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: this year, which is kind of crazy for a team
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: that's on the rise like that to make a huge
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: change in staffing like that. It seems very weird to me.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: But that means they're gonna have to learn these new systems,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: so they're not gonna have learned them yet. Whereas the Chargers,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be their second year under Harbost, so
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: they have guys who have kind of learned that system.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: So I think that's a factor that helps the Chargers
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: as well. I know the location helps Detroit because of
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: course Ohio pretty close to Detroit, and you're gonna get
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Detroit fans Lions fans probably in the stadium for this.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: But even so, I mean, I don't think you're gonna
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: see a lot of people even in the stands for
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: this game, to be honest, man, So I don't think
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: that factor is gonna be huge at all. And I
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: think the Chargers one of the main things that we
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: have going on here is their quarterback rotation is actually
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: better for this game. So they have Justin Herbert obviously
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: is not gonna play, but they have Taylor Heinick, who's
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: an NFL veteran, and they have Trey Lance, who it
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: looks like Lance is actually gonna get most of the
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: reps in this game. I think Lance is gonna start
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: and then we're probably gonna see Heinick, and we might
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: see you Galilee in there as well. I don't like
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: U Gallelee at all. I mean, I've made Ukulele. I've
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: made fun of him for a while, and he was
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: just really really bad in college. After he tried to
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: step up in class to play it like Clemson. I'm
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: not a fan of Ukulele, but I don't think we're
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: gonna see that much of him in this game. So
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: he's in experience at the NFL level as well. But
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: Trey Lance, of course, we know he's made NFL starts before.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: He was in the mix for the forty nine Ers
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: for a while, so he's been around. I think he's
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: gonna get the majority of the reps here for the Chargers.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Looks like in Heinick he's gonna be in the mix
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: as well because they're battling for that backup span Heinegy.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: Like I said, it's a longtime NFL veteran, So I
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: actually think the Chargers quarterback depth here is way better
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: than Detroit's quarterback depth Detroit. Obviously it's all about Jared Goff.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: Obviously he's not gonna play in this game. So that
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: means you're gonna get Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen in
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: the mix for them. And they don't even have an
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: additional quarterback besides them, So who.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: The hell are they?
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: I don't even know Hendon Hooker. I guess he went
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: to Tennessee. He was drafted in twenty twenty three. He
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: has very little pro experience. Not gonna be a fan
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: of a lot the idea of relying on him and
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: then Kyle Allen.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: He's been around for a bit.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: He actually he actually does have some pro experience, but
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: he's not Josh Allen. Man, he has limited pro experience.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: So he did play a little bit last year, I guess,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: but he's been around for a while.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: That's right, he went to Houston. I actually do remember
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: that now it's.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: Been a while though, so he's their only like really
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: experienced quarterback. But I would take Heineke and Trey Lance
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: over this over the mix of Hooker.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: And Alan any day of the week.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Man. And I'm not referring to Josh Allen And what
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: the hell is his wife's name there? Haley Hailey steinfeld
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: not Steinbrenn or Steinfeldt. She's hot though, Yeah, but that's
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: not Hooker and Allan. But anyway, Yeah, that's those are
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: my thoughts on the NFL game there. If you want
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: some action on that, I think the Chargers are actually
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: worth a look in that game for those reasons. The
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: quarterback depth, and that's actually gonna do it for me. Man,
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: hard r R.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: What's up? Man? Thanks?
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: For hanging out. The sixty Yeah, that's a different league, man.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: They should have been in the women's Football League. I
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: don't know if you've seen that thing. I don't even
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: know if it's still around, but the women play football.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: They tackle each other and they're like scantily clad. It's
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: pretty hot anyway. That's gonna do it, man. The one
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: play today again, very very short board all across the
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: board here, but I am seeing that there's an angle
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: here on Tampa Bay Rays in baseball at the first
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: five innings. So we'll have one afternoon play today and
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: that's it. That's gonna do it. Short play. I like
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: these days, man, because I can kind of focus, get
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: it done, hammer it out, jerk off a little bit,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: short video.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: We're done.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out, everybody. Learn to toad on Twitter
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: and learn a tode on Instagram. I post betting content
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: out there as well. Better Off Dead obviously you're here
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: on YouTube, but may follow me here like subscribe, you know, comment,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: interact with me, share it around.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: It's also on the audio platforms. Better Off Dead is
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: out there, and.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: I have covered in yuke My Ukulele Project YouTube, which
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: basically mirrors the stuff that I put out on Twitter,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: and then I also have a Patreon, Patreon, dot com slash.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Learned to toad.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: You could throw me some support there and you get
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: some bonus ute content, you get a Spotify feet at
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: one of the levels, and requests at another one of
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: the levels.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Happy Thursday, everybody.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: Let's get a win on this one today, especially because
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: it factors into my actual biases two. But that's not
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: the reason why I'm doing it.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: Peace. Everybody have a good one today.