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Crypto Market Bloodbath🚨Crash Update 📉 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: A market blood path is underway today. We'll break it
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: down for you what is causing all of this distress.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barren. Welcome back into the show.
• 0:07
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• 0:08
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• 0:11
  Speaker 1: long term holding, which is what you should be doing
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: in things in times like right now, and look at
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: IRAS and of course you guys can do this with
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: both crypto.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: You can do gold and silver. All of that set
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: it up.
• 0:24
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• 0:26
  Speaker 1: own tax advice.
• 0:27
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• 0:28
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• 0:30
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• 0:34
  Speaker 2: Let's go over to this first tweet. This of course
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: came out. This was from CNN.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure to what extent is the reporting is
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: very spotty right now. It is that the US deployed
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: jets against Russian Brahmers, supposedly in Alaskan airspace. I don't
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: know if this is the case. It is possible that
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: the markets could be spooped because of this. I don't
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: necessarily think that is the case. I think we're dealing
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: more with a cycle thing right now. If you look
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: at the government shutdown potentially as another possibly catalyst for
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing in the market right now, this is
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: now at a seventy five percent chance after yesterday we
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: did a video on this and a breakdown on this.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Trump.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Of course, he doesn't appear to be interested in negotiations,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: so likely as we might get a day or two
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: or possibly more, they could play into this shutdown. The
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: other thing is job cuts, and I want to go
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: to a clip real quick because this will get us
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: into a framework of how this economy is doing.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: Now. This marks a significant escalation in rhetoric and threat
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: from the Trump administration because normally we see those non
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: essential government workers fur looad but then brought back with backpay. Instead,
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: we're seeing this memo from the OMB which is directing
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: agencies to come up with a list of workers who
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: activities are not paid for a via mandatory funds or
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: any new funding from the One Big, Beautiful Bill, as
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: well as to make a list of programs deemed inconsistent
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: with the President's priorities. And these are the areas that
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: could be on the chopping block. No OMB did not
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: provide additional details. We don't know how big these layoffs
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: could be, but it's important context to keep in mind.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: That's six out of ten federal workers are typically deemed
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: essential during shutdowns, which means that they keep working well.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: Four out of ten are told to basically stand by
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: until Congress reopens the government. So of course this could
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: have some very big economic implications here, Vonnie. But just
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: for an update on how these negotiations are going, They're
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: not going too well.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So this coming from the government job side of thing.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Then you look at the most recent report. Jobless claims
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: drop two hundred and eighteen thousand this week. Sounds great,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: you know, I put this tweet out, but there is
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: some catch here. Last week's numbers were quietly reved revised higher.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: This gets me back to the point of can we
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: even trust this data yet or ever?
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I still think it's bullish for markets in general long term,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: But this happens all the time economic data, initial reports grab.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Headlines, blah blah blah. You get the point here.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: This was the kind of the situation right there on
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Reuter's they were just saying that jobless claims are falling
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: but labor market is softening, and I still think that
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: is the bigger picture here is that labor markets are
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: still very, very soft, and that we'll go into the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Q four with a very soft labor market, which will
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: put a lot of pressure I think on performance earnings
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: as well as just in general the markets. Now, I
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: want to go into this other thing that goes back
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: to the shutdown potential, and this was in reference to
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: how Trump was responding to it.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: Take a look, so why I think we're in for
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: a shutdown but not.
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: Along There is at least a theory that the White
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: House is hoping for this shutdown.
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: Those earlier this year, and we know that the calculation
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: is Schumer made earlier this year. Part of the reason
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: that he didn't fight through was because he was worried
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: about federal workers. Yes, he's ready worried about the president's
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: ability to kind of impound funds. If you will pick
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: and choose what's essential for the government when.
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: The threat could actually be greater. Now do you buy
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: into this theory? Terry? The trumpet been stration is now
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: in control of what is essential and what is not,
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: and we'll use that power in a way that we've
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: not seen before.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think yeah, I think both of those are true.
• 4:07
  Speaker 6: Frankly, they have things that they want to roll out
• 4:11
  Speaker 6: and things that they want to test.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: All right, So you can see there's a lot of
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: mixed feelings I think around the government shut down, how
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: much of an impact it will have on markets, but
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: more importantly, how much it's going to have an impact
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: on DC and in tradition government jobs that applied into this.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I want to go also into tax credits because this
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: is another factor that comes into a bigger, broader impact
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: on markets.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Let's take a look at this clip. Would it be
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: possible just to get what you want?
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  Speaker 7: Because I know that Senator Johnson is probably he doesn't
• 4:42
  Speaker 7: even want to do.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: This, but others are ready to do it. They just
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: don't want to get taken to the cleaners with a
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: bunch of other things.
• 4:50
  Speaker 8: I think it's a bigger problem that you're not anolging.
• 4:52
  Speaker 8: The problem is not that we can't find a solution
• 4:55
  Speaker 8: to this. The problem is that the leadership is not
• 4:59
  Speaker 8: going to the take and sitting down and negotiating. Because
• 5:02
  Speaker 8: if they negotiated, we could find a way to deal
• 5:06
  Speaker 8: with this. We have Republicans who are interested in extending
• 5:10
  Speaker 8: the premium tax credits, and the president should recognize that
• 5:14
  Speaker 8: even his own pollsters say that we don't extend these
• 5:17
  Speaker 8: tax credits, the GOP is going to pay at the
• 5:20
  Speaker 8: polls next year.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: You're going to shut the government shut.
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  Speaker 8: Everybody needs to stop the kabuki theater and go to
• 5:26
  Speaker 8: the table and negotiate.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: That's the only way it's going to get done is
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: I think through negotiations. The impact on the market, it's
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: pretty dire breaking.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Right now.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: US stock market futures into a three day loss, down
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: two percent after obviously we saw Powell pushing back on
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: the rate cut hopes, which is the problem. I think
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: that also could be playing into this. And you can
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: kind of see the US five hundred, the US Tech
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: one hundred, everything was down considerably, including the small cap
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: two thousand.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: So this is another factor that plays into this.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: The SMP has his historically been expensive based on valuation
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: metrics before anyway, so that's another thing that could be
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: pulling off, is that the market has been too frothy.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: There is some adjustment here going forward. Now we'll get
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: into bitcoin here in a second, but I do want
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: to remind everybody if you guys are not part of
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: our Forge membership, make sure and get in on that.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: You guys can just visit our website, click on the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: top banner, you know, just take you over to memberships
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: right there. What you get there is our barent brief,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: that's an email, and get into our BCI, which is
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: our fifty tokens that we follow very closely, a little
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: bit on our own portfolio, and then all sorts of tools,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: including our indicators, so check it out.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Plus you get in on our Telegram group over there.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Now let's talk about bitcoin, because bitcoin is another factor here.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: We're seeing it start to adjust. Now is under a
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: one hundred k bitcoin in the cards?
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: Here's the ETFs.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Now entering a little bit of a slowdown face, and
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are now starting to
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: look at maybe an under nigh position. The slowdown spot
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: bitcoin ETF signals again against institutional demands.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: So this is a factor.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: One eight is the short term target for bears, and
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: there are some analysts predicting a drop to ninety k.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know if ninety is in the cards, but
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: it would be a significant pullback and that of course
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: would wreck the all coin market dramatically. The question would
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: be is how would Bitcoin come out of that, and
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: would that pretty much cancel the all coin market.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: I think there's a lot to look at.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Leading the all coin market typically has always been ethereum,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: and Ethereum now has fallen below four thousand for the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: first time in six weeks. I'm not necessarily worried about
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: this just yet, but there are some key points of
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: where ETH could go that could concern me. So again,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: if you're not in a force membership, because we talk
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: about those things all the time in there. Blackrock has
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: sold two twenty five thousand, six hundred in ETH today
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: and now institutions are wanting to lower entry on eath.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Maybe this is a bigger play toward, you know, ideas
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: around manipulation. Everybody's looking at all sorts of things, you know,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: shut down issues globally, what we're dealing with on the
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: EUU front, and now what we're dealing with in terms
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: of maybe even market manipulation around some of these major tokens.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: For sure, now is a reset good for the market. Well,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: this clip will explain a little bit more.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: You really shouldn't short an overbought market.
• 8:29
  Speaker 8: That's usually get your butt handed to you.
• 8:32
  Speaker 7: That's right. I always caution against shortening anything that's at
• 8:35
  Speaker 7: or near all time highs. I think that's really not
• 8:38
  Speaker 7: advisable to anyone because it means there's no resistance on
• 8:42
  Speaker 7: the charts. The positive momentum is there, and of course
• 8:44
  Speaker 7: we do have that for the major indices. But listen,
• 8:47
  Speaker 7: I mean, we've avoided the seasonal pullback so far.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Will we avoid it?
• 8:52
  Speaker 7: I think not probably, but you don't have the indications yet.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I think between now and mid October.
• 8:58
  Speaker 8: We will see.
• 8:58
  Speaker 7: That's very natural. Usually you see it towards the end
• 9:01
  Speaker 7: of September, and wouldn't that be a great reset for
• 9:04
  Speaker 7: the market. I mean, if you look around, especially in
• 9:06
  Speaker 7: the AI names, it's extremely overextended in its appearance. Overbought's
• 9:12
  Speaker 7: not a bad thing. That's the reflection of momentum. It's
• 9:14
  Speaker 7: when you see that overbought reading give way to downturns,
• 9:18
  Speaker 7: and you can simply follow that using stochastics or RSIs
• 9:22
  Speaker 7: and you'll see it on a broad basis. I think,
• 9:24
  Speaker 7: you know, we moved to a Barriss short term bias
• 9:27
  Speaker 7: this week in our research for bitcoin, but it's within
• 9:30
  Speaker 7: the context of an intermediate term range that follows a
• 9:33
  Speaker 7: long term breakout.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: All right, so we are there.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: What we're talking about is the seasonal market structure resets,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: and maybe this is basically just going and following the
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: plan in terms of the size and I think the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: alignment of where the market is timing wise.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Now, there are some other things.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That play into this, and one of them is always
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the pressure on Trump's administration. Well, Senator Warren continues to
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: do that, calling for investigations against President Trump's family over
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: foreign crypto deals.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: This, of course is all relating to World Liberty five.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: But at the same time, on the same day, World
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Liberty five gets listed by Robin Hood and of course
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: we see an immediate.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Impact from that as well.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, this is a very unusual setup
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: for going into what could be a blowof top but
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: also could be an extension in this market, and I
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: think that's something to kind of take a look at.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Here was a tweet by ionic XBT and he hits
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: on a couple of points kind of a good news
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: bad news concept. This will be the final crypto cycle.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: That's I guess that's bad news in terms of parabolic moves. Okay,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: so if you've been in cryptocycles in the past, parabolic moves.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: That's why you're here. If you're brand new.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: To crypto, a thirty percent move might be parabolic to you.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: But in reality, we've seen hundreds of percentage moves, thousands
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: of percentage moves in the past, So that's a factor
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: that could be happening. And Q four and all, so
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Q one of twenty twenty six could be the zone
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: of peak euphoria, So that could be the cycle ending,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: and it could push past the end of this year,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: which would definitely be outside of the four year cycle,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: especially when we look at bitcoin having as kind of
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: being the indicator there. Raoul Powell, who's been on our
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: show before, has kind of talked about this a little bit.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: He goes on in this video to talk a little
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: bit more about this elongated cycle though. So it's an
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: interesting take.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 11:29
  Speaker 6: Remember we've always said it's the business cycle, stupid. It
• 11:32
  Speaker 6: is always the business cycle stupid. And all of these
• 11:34
  Speaker 6: people who claim it's the four year cycle based around
• 11:37
  Speaker 6: this and that they don't understand the fundamental of what
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: the business cycle is. You see, rates should have come lower,
• 11:46
  Speaker 6: they need to come lower because rates are so high
• 11:48
  Speaker 6: has meant that Main Street has been screwed while Wall
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: streets made money from debasement earnings. That's the scarce assets.
• 11:56
  Speaker 6: This is the issue that they need to sow and
• 12:00
  Speaker 6: they need to get rates lower. Why do we have
• 12:02
  Speaker 6: an elongated business cycle that looks like virtually no other
• 12:05
  Speaker 6: real other time? Is that in twenty twenty one twenty
• 12:09
  Speaker 6: two that actually extended the maturity of the debt from
• 12:11
  Speaker 6: four years to five years. So that extension of the
• 12:15
  Speaker 6: maturity of debt has pushed out the business cycle a year.
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: The four year cycle this time around is a five
• 12:21
  Speaker 6: year cycle. We don't know what the next one will
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: be until we see where they all get end up
• 12:25
  Speaker 6: getting refinanced. And it tells us the m should peak
• 12:30
  Speaker 6: by twenty twenty six. We think liquidity probably peaks before that,
• 12:36
  Speaker 6: as the rate of change of ism changes and the
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: rate of change liquidity changes. Our best guess remains well
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: into twenty twenty six, probably Q two.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: All right, So there you have it. So it is
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: pushing it out a little bit. This could mean that
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: we're just in late stage. If you think about what
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee has talked about, he still looks at end
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: of year the last point I would say is that
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: would help the market is if we see the turn
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: on job numbers coming back, if that all comes in.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: And I know a lot of things in the pipe
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: there in terms of potential, but those are the things
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: we're watching. Hey, listen, that's why you guys follow this channel.
• 13:13
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• 13:15
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• 13:19
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• 13:23
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• 13:25
  Speaker 1: that if you're brand new to crypto, definitely worth it.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Follow me out there on X just that Paul Baron,
• 13:30
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• 13:32
  Speaker 1: on The Paul Baron Show.