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NFL Week 6 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. Your Favorite Trio is back.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by the sharpest Sharps that money
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: can buy, Stucky and Kendra Middleton. A very exuberant Kendra
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Middleton after that Jags win last night. On today's episode,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We've got our plant the Flag Games for week six,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: a breakdown of the top storylines, and of course, the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: main event evans Tuesday primer. What a weekend it was
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Week five in the books, a little up and down
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: for the crew. The parlay picks the newly named Two
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen Parlay went one and two, But
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: we press on to week six. The Jags, of course
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: pull off what looked to be an improbable win. Trevor Lawrence,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: laying on the ground down by the goal line, pops
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: himself back up, heroic run into the end zone, and
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: they trip their way into victory. I can only imagine
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: what the scene at the Middleton household looked like last
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: night as Trevor Lawrence is bumbling his way into the
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: end zone.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: I have so many thoughts. I don't even know where
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: to begin.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: What an emotional roller coaster this was from start to
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: finish for me and my entire hell of pets.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: I was screaming. I think I was crying.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: He my dog somehow slept through me screaming at my
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: TV for and like the whole game. Literally, I posted
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: a picture of him just passed out, not a thought
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: in the world as I'm running around losing my mind.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: I the ups and downs of the Trevor Lawrence experience
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: is going to give me premature gray hair. I'm surprised
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: it has not caused me alcoholism. I don't even know
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: where to start. The delay of game penalties were insane.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: Devin Lloyd, the turnaround for him is absolutely unbelievable. The
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: fact that they overcame some injuries last night night. What
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: a night from Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: Just I don't even know where to start. I have
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: so many thoughts. But Trevor Lawrence when he runs looks
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: like a wounded baby deer that was born last Thursday.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: I swear to God, I have so many thoughts about
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: this game. I don't even I am shook. The refs also,
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: I don't even what are you? What are you guys
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: getting because the Jags come on the Chiefs.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs had more penalty yards than the Jags did
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: last night, and the Jags won the game. Let's get
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: off the officials, stucky. What was your biggest takeaway from
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: last night?
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: Ten Draugs hold you Jags are gonna win and cover?
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: Uh you weren't. You weren't as confident as I was.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: This is the Jags Podcast.
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: I love the Jacks. I love the Jacks coming to
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: the here. I still love the Jags with my ravens
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: and shambles. I'm now I'm now Jacks fan for the
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: time being, temporary Jacks fan. So it's crazy that if
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: the playoffs ended today, who would have thought that the
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: Jags and Colts matchups in December are going to determine
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: AFC supremacy. But yeah, I thought they're.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Gonna get moved to primetime, which is hilarious.
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: Jags, Yeah, Jags are gonna be a primetime da. When's
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: the last time you saw the Jags win on Monday
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: Night football? Don't even know how long of us?
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, it's been like the better part of
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: a decade.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: It has to be.
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: I know that they talked about it last night, But
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: I don't remember when it was. The last time I
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: saw the Jogs winning primetime was the Chargers game.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: But I was sad at that games.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Monday night football. But Devin Lloyd amazing's playing at
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: all pro level. Got to be in the defensive Player
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: of the Year conversation at least as of right.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: Now for sure.
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: And I thought Trevor Lawrence had the best drive of
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: his career at the end. He made that throw on
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: third down down the sidelines to Thomas was unbelievable. Yeah,
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: I mean Liam Cohen's coaching, the defensive coaching, it's all
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: the special teams have been rocks out all year. That
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: the Jags were great in all three phases. And yeah,
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: they did have some injuries. I I did think the
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: Chiefs offense, like I was like, all right, and I
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: don't I need to see more because the Ravens defense
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: was so banned up. But the Chiefs offense did did
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: look a lot better. I mean, they had like a
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: sixty four percent success rate, which I think was the
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: highest of the year for any team. So there's there's
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: a lot of juice in that Chiefs offense. What especially
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: once they get Rashi Rice back, Butker might be washed.
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: You could argue he's cost.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: The he is, thank god, he's definitely yeah.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: That was what led the Jags to be able to
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: get ahead last night, was that he kicked the kick
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: off out.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: Of bounds and you know what, whatever, screw them.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: The thing that for me that makes me feel a
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: little bit better is if I don't know if the
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: Bible says like thou shalt not let Breton Strange tush
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: push you or something, because Trevor Lawrence is scared of
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: letting him touch his butt. But had they done the
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: toush push and knock going over the top on that,
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: it would have been a they would have been a
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: you know, two score game for them, Like I just
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know how learned that last.
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, because the strangers right behind him, so you got
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: to do a normal I mean, he was an inch
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: away from getting in, but you just got to do
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: a normal regulars get over it. Yeah, that that almost
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: I'm shocked that they were able to overcome that. Lloyd
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: helped because I stole a possession. But the old Jags,
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: I tweeted this out. The old Jags would have folded
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: when they were down for and they the old Jags
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: I mean I'm talking like at the last couple of years,
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: had no resiliency and once they went down fourteen to nothing,
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: it would have been lights out. But the defense got
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: to stop at the end of the first half, and
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: then a stop to start the second half, which was
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: just massive because the game could have slipped away. And
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: then they stole that possession back to make up for
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: the Lawrence goal line fumble with a goal line pick
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: that Lloyd took ninety nine the other way. So yeah,
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: I think that the Jags are are legit. You're right, Hunter,
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: if you look at the I mean, if you just
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: take pff you look at the five highest graded players
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: of last time as a receiver and Hunter as a
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: d backer in the top five, and he made some
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: great plays on both sides of the ball. So uh yeah,
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: I think that the Jags are legit and they easily
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: could be five and oh if they didn't melt down
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: versus first Jake Browning and undefeated.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I believe in the Chiefs. I think the
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Chiefs are still a good team. But this is what
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the schedule will do to you. If you're too good
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: for too long. Eventually, the NFL will make it an impossible,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: treacherous gauntlet for you. The Chiefs no rest for the weary,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: another primetime game at home against the Detroit Lions.
• 6:55
  Speaker 6: So even if they.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Play well like they played well last night, they can
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: play well on Sunday night and they can still lose
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: that one too. And here you are looking at a
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Chiefs team that right now outside looking in in terms
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs.
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: Three and one score games at their ten and l
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: last year.
• 7:12
  Speaker 6: And that's the thing.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Like that exactly, the regression is going to get you.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I feel like when we take a closer look at
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: the luck rankings that the Jags are going to be
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: bumped up a little bit based on Devin Lloyd going
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: across the field for a touchdown and uh, some of
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: the turnover worthy plays that Trevor Lawrence had, the weird
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: fall down touchdown he had at the end. There are
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of things that broke Jacksonville's way in this
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: game in order then to get down, but I get
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: up again.
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it was just a back and forth game.
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, like you could argue the Chiefs fuck that
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: they had an interception on a twenty yard touchdown drive
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: that was because of past interference. The offensiveass interference is questionable.
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: The Jags, you know, fumbled at the one, so I
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: think there was both teams that things go for them
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: and against them. I don't think it was terribly lucky.
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: I mean, that was just one of those games where
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: whoever had the ball last felt like was gonna win.
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: So yeah, obviously a one score win for the Jags,
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: but I don't think it was it was terribly lucky.
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: There are some injuries to note, like, they had some
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: offensive line injuries. Strange got hurt, so there's some things
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: to know.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: But he came back in.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Anton Harrison, he was in and out, so we'll see.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: You're hitting a peak for him though, so hopefully he's okay.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, he's looked, he's looked.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: No, Trayvon Walker is the story of this game though.
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: Yes, they they couldn't get pressure. You could just tell
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: how much they missed him because they were incapable of
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: generating any pressure naturally, because it's just, hey, you have
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: to worry about Alan, and if you just have to
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: worry about Alan, you know you can slide protection, you
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: can you can help. But if you have Alan and Walker,
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: they become so much more difficul to contain both. But yeah,
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: he was definitely missed, so we'll see. The Seahawks also
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: have a ton of injuries, the main ones to keep
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: an eye on there, which we'll talk about later in
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: the week, or or in the secondary. I mean the
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: Seahawks came into the Bucks game hurt in the secondary
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: and then lost more guys in the secondary and they
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: were down. They were decimated by the end of that game.
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: So definitely there's a lot of injury games this year,
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: a lot of injuries to keep tracking.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, here's my thing with this for our podcast. Jags though.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: They play Seattle this week at home and then technically
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: I do think that they'll wind up losing the Seattle game.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: I said that on our Sunday show just because that
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: would be the most Jacksonville Jaguars thing ever to beat
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs in primetime and then turn around and lose
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: to the Seattle Seahawks, just because I've watched this team
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: for long enough.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: That's the vibe that I get from them.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: But the issue with continuing to bet them that people
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: need to pay attention to. They don't have another home
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: game I think until November ninth, technically after Seattle, because
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: you can claim the London game as a home game,
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: it might help them that. Obviously they've gone through that
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: schedule before, like the going overseas, YadA YadA.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: They have like kind of a routine about it at
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: this point. But they have Seattle at.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: Home, go to London, bye week, two away games, so
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: that's you know, a lot of time not really spent
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: in your home stadium. When you're an undefeated team, it's
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: a long time to not have a home game. So
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: that's the only thing that I would keep in mind
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: if you want to bet on the Jags. I personally
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: am going to stay away from them with Seattle just
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: because it feels like a Seattle spot. And then La
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: obviously they're a good team and it's technically a neutral,
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: neutral game, even though I'm sure there's going to be
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: more Jags fans. But after like they don't have another
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: home game until November ninth, that's a long.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Time you have set the cross country travel Jacksonville in
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the short week. I feel like those two kind of
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: nullify each other. So really even match up, I think
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a tough one to find a
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: side that we're in love with in this game.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm the injuries to keep an eye on for
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: the We mentioned the jas Ones, but just to throw
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: the names out there for Seattle, I mean, they were
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: without at the end of that game. They were without
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: three starters in the secondary, Witherspoon, Love wool and we're
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: all hurt, and then DeMarcus Lawrence as well. So the
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: Seahawks defense, especially in the back end, is uh. And
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: then you're missing one of your best edge rushers. Definitely,
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: it was a kind of a shell unit by the
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: end of that Bucks game. So that's something to keep
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: an eye on there for the injuries. But yeah, I
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: mean the Jags are they're gonna they're gonna be in
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: the mix for this division in the playoff spot all
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: the way to the end, so you know, and Theirs
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: their schedule when you look at it, it's.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: You know, it is the gauntlet piece of it, this
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: like until.
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: Like Rams neutral then by that's a tough stretch, but
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: you have then you're Vegas, Texans Chargers at home, Cardinals, Titans, Jets, uh,
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: the Titans again and then the two matchups with the Colts,
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: which as of right now it looks like those two
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: could decide the division.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: Cowen could pass Gus Bradley in wins as a Jaguars
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: head coach before the season even ends.
• 12:11
  Speaker 6: Or went out for Gus.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: Well, okay, here's the.
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: Other thing though, Like with Seattle, we can move on
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: from this in a second. The only other thing that
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: I would say we kind of maybe have to consider
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: is what's going on with Kenneth Walker and Charbonnay, Like
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: who is their lead back there? That whole situation confuses
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: me too. But other than that, I'm happy. I'll take
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: the dub. This was the gauntlet pieces of the schedule.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: I'm dragging off.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah we uh yeah, group group Jag off here. I
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: feel like we've you know, we've banked on the Jags
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: and only get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe take the week off. We did have some injuries
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: this week, as we always do. As Stuck he mentioned,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: there is a lot there's a lot of little items
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: throughout the league to pay attention to. Amaro Hampton went
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: down with the Chargers. He looks like he's gonna be
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: out multiple weeks. Antonio Gibson with the Patriots has done
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: for the year. I mean those are just some of
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: the little ones. But I think the most impactful in
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: terms of a singular injury, not these clusters that we're
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: talking about. Spencer Schrader of the Colts. The Colts have
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: been dynamite this year and their kicker has been awesome
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: thirteen of fourteen in field goal attempts. He's made all
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: of his extra points. How much stucky would you downgrade
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis without their kicker because we don't know who they're
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: gonna go and pick up off the street.
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, not at all, but I mean he's still
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: a kicker. We'll see who they get. It's like noteworthy,
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: but at the end of the day, it's still a kicker.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: And Trader's been good this year, but it's not like
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: he's prime. Justin Tucker has proven it over years and years.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: My biggest concern in injury wise is the Chargers offensive line,
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: and maybe Miami can't take advantage of it. But the
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: last two weeks against the Giants and Washington, Chargers offense
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: has been completely dysfunctional because they cannot block anybody and
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: they suffered more than you know. Obviously you lose both
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: your tackles, but now your guards have been hurt your back,
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: your one of your your backup tackles was hurt last
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: week that had it that it is now forced to start.
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: Their offensive line is a disaster and it's ruining the
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: entire offense. And now you have no backs. Your top
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: two backs are done. So the Chargers offensive injuries are
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: potentially devastating. Now that's the matchup with the week for me, Like, Okay,
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: you have this Chargers, their backup running backs, you have
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: all these offensive line injuries going up against the Dolphins
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: defense that isn't generating pressure and just gave up two
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: hundred and ten yards to reco daddle and back up
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: offensive lineman on the Panthers. So what gives? I don't know.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: I know Kendra I think likes the likes the Chargers
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: and that the Dolphins just might be a dead walking
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: But yeah, the that just might derail the Chargers season.
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: Looking long term, if is that offensive line because the
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: last two weeks their offense has just been completely dysfunctional.
• 15:12
  Speaker 6: Yeah, the Dolphins just can't get pressure.
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: No.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: I was doing some research and it looks like the
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: options for the Colts are gonna be I think Greg's
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: er Lion or Dustin Hopkins because Eddie Periniro got signed
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: obviously by the forty nine ers.
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: Oh, Greg, gregor leg I'll download. I'll downgrade them a
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: touchdown after what I saw with the.
• 15:31
  Speaker 6: This is what I'm saying.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, I get that it's a kicker the Colts overall,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: this isn't just kicking, but overall PFF grade has them
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: as the fifth best special teams unit in the NFL,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and everything is working well for them without one of
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: those key components to special teams. It does feel like
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: it's a hit that you don't realize as a hit
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: until you need it. And we'll see who they end
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: up filling that gap with. I could kick, Like no,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know who those filling options would
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: be or how confident I should be.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: Santas can't kick apparently, I mean, and that they weren't
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: even attempting to do it in the game against the Raiders,
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: like they were just going forward every time on two
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: point conversions, and that was in a blowout, So you
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: would think that like if he was able to kick,
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: they would That would be a perfect time.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: The MLS season's about to end. Go find go find
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: an MLS.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Player, Grab a Golden Boot, but the Dolphins it should be.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Dolphins catching points at home with the
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: team traveling from the West Coast.
• 16:37
  Speaker 6: Does feel like Okay and the Dolphins.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: The last time the Dolphins played the Chargers, this is
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: a couple of years ago now, I think it was
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: to his best game of his career, over four hundred
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: yards passing three touchdowns. There's something about this team. Maybe
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: it's the Justin Herbert, same draft class thing that gets
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: them going. But I just can't back Miami because it
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: feels like every time they lose.
• 16:57
  Speaker 6: The bottom's about to fall out.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: And I hate being on a team that quits on
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: their coach, and it feels like we are moments away
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: from that happening in Miami, especially with the way they
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: they had no business losing that game to Carolina.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: I want nothing to do with the Dolphins this week.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: Even though the Chargers are injured.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: It feels like they're seasons insane and their division's really tough.
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: You cannot and will not get me to back the
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: Dolphins in this spot.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: I just I can't.
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you guys watched McDaniel's press conference
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: after this game. I don't even in really, Oh my god,
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: the things that.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: He's saying just don't even make sense.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: He just he he wants to go be a coordinator somewhere.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: He's done. I think he's given up.
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: This team with the injuries has and just the team
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: in general, I think has killed this man. He's not
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: been the same since Tua got hurt for the second time.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: Like I just it's over, it's done, wrap it up.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if this team just goes belly up,
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: regardless of whatever's going on with this Chargers team.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: Can't do it.
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: Oh, by the way, Colts kicker. Look, the Colts stole
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: the Ravens team once overnight, maybe week ten.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Justin Tucker, I mean, he's washed and you cannot bring but.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: He's better than Greg Zerline.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: But what if he's in jail by then, I don't know.
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: Know, I'm just throwing it out there. Would be funny
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: if the Colts sent it up.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: I had that thought too, But I don't think that
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: you can jeopardize the camaraderie that you have in your
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: locker room right now with a guy who has like
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: multiple cases. Like that's just that's not It would be
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: funny and I thought the same thought crossed my mind,
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: just because it's probably an option.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: But I don't think you can have the.
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: Bad press and all of that the stuff that comes
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: with it and mess up this weird mojo that you've
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: got going on.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: The cults are vibe right now, Aura, Aura, a little
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: bit of the antydimes.
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: Aura.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: The Favorites a sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: we'd like to tell you the next great touchdown is
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: coming and you can bet on it right now. New
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• 19:23
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• 19:24
  Speaker 6: The crown is yours.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: ATS Standings Report, the Lions, Colts, Jags. As we know
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: this is a Jags podcast. We're having a Jag slumber party.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Last night, All four and one ats on the season.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Last week's Ats demon that we faded was the Eagles
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: that paid off Broncos come back and win and cover
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: and all of that. Does anyone want to stand a
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: post to the teams right now that are cashing tickets
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: left and right. You get the Lions at Kansas City,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: the Colts at home against Arizona, or the Jaguars at
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: home again the Seattle Seahawks who already sort of dismissed
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: that one, but feel free to save this in your
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: back pocket if it's a point your flag game. But Stucky,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: are you fading the Lions or the Colts this week?
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah? I got to dig into the I mean, the
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: Cardinals have a ton of injuries. The Colts are fairly
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: healthy of Alec Pierce, Grover's store who matters to the run,
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: Dye a lot got banged out. Then you have Kenny Moore,
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: He's really important, especially since his backup who they signed
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: also got hurt. So there's some injuries there. I got
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: to figure out where that This line is getting a
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: little too high for me. I mean, but I got
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: figureut where the Cardinals are at mentally, and they have
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: But like, how do they respond to that game with
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: everything that went down?
• 20:48
  Speaker 6: That was awesome.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: It's and by the way, the Titans. The Titans meanwhile
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: breakout of solitary confinement.
• 20:57
  Speaker 6: So congrats to the Titans. Bring a spread.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they had no business copy. They were
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: about to be down twenty eight to six. They don't
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: drive the flukiest wins I've ever seen, but I might
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: fade the Lions if I had to choose with the Chiefs.
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: Like I said, the Chiefs offense, I believe in it
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: after what I saw last week, last week or last night,
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: and then the week before, I had some doubts because
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: they played the Ravens, and the Ravens right now are
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: the worst team in the NFL, and the Lions have
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: what the They have one of the worst strength of
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: victories in the NFL right now. So yeah, they've been winning,
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: but you look back. They beat the Bears, who were
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: without half their starters on defense, and it was in Detroit.
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: They beat the Ravens. So I just told you all
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: their injury. I mean, look at the Ravens have been
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: in their defense over the past few weeks, that the
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: most hurt team in the NFL. They beat Joe Flacco
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: and the Browns at home, and then they beat then
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: they beat Jake Browning who threw basically gifted them the
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: game in the first half with four short fields and
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: three interceptions and could not hit an open receiver to
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: save his life. So yeah, the Lions have won and
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: covered four straight. But if you dig a little deeper,
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: it's like, Okay, who did it really come against? So
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: I do think the chief should be able to move
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: the ball at will the Lion's off. It's a lot
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: of success here too, but backs against the wall at home,
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: I think I might trust the Chiefs here to get
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: it done.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: The Lions are a tough team to fade every week.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams shares the numbers on what Golf and Campbell
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: have done over seventy percent against the spread this year.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: They're over eighty percent against the spread. But I think
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: stuck He's right. This feels like a by low Kansas
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: City Chief spot. When I mean heed detailed it Bears, Ravens, Browns, Bengals.
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: Is that really that impressive? And they have.
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: You think about all the injuries too on those teams.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Exactly, So they're a little bit right now. As great
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: as they are, this is a week to fade them.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: I'm I think I'm gonna end up on Kansas City.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: That's crazy answer.
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: That's the question.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Here's that that's a great point. My thing is.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: It's hard because it's a short week for the Chiefs,
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: but you can almost get me to think I don't
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: I can't fait the Colts just because they don't even
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: have like a look ahead angle, but the meat of
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: the Lions' schedule is about to happen. You can't ever
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: count out a Chiefs team, but they've got bucks. The Vikings,
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: I think are better than they've looked the last couple
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: of weeks. Commanders obviously can't count them out. Eagles, and
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: like the rest of their they have a tough remaining schedule.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: That's like the hard part for me on getting to
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: the window on the Lions. I think that they beat
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs, probably by a field goal, So I would
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: probably like this number if it stays the same by
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: the time we have more information on injury reports on Thursday.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: But it's I can't fait the Colts. Their schedule is
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: too easy.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: If I have to pick guy to my head type
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: of situation, it would probably be the Lions. But I
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: still don't think they lose to this this version of
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs that we have right now is currently constructed.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: It's more so.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: If you if I had to pick, it's the potential
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: of a look ahead of the schedule that they have
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: over the.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Next couple of weeks. And I don't like either position.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: The percentages are overwhelming, and it is early. I like
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: to read into this stuff, but more so later in
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the week the closer we get to kick off seventy
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: three percent of the bets eighty eight percent of the
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: money on the Detroit Lions as it stands right now. Now,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: this stucky is where your bread is really buttered. The Ats,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Jail Birds, the Raiders, the Bengals, the Ravens one and
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: four against the spread.
• 24:41
  Speaker 6: You've got teams off blowouts.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: The Ravens got blown out, the Raiders got blown out,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the Jets, the Giants. Are any of these teams by
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: lows for you as we enter week six? By super well, yeah,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: I mean the Jets.
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: It's hard to back the Jets right now, but this
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: is the low point of the Jets. The Broncos over
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: a touchdown. I could only look at the Jets like
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: I make at six. So the problem is that the
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: Jets get behind in that game, like they have no recourse,
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: they have no recourse playing from behind, and they've had
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: just some sad efforts. I mean, that was an incredibly
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: sad effort. Zero and four, you're getting the Cowboys in
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: a great spot. They were without four starting offensive lineman,
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: two starting receivers, with a bad defense, and the Jets
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: defense is it's it can't stop a nosebleed. But I
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: show value there the way that I bet the NFL.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: That would be the side that I would look. But
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: it's not a game that I'm running to bet the Ravens.
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: It's all about their injuries. Like, it's not just Lamar Jackson.
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: There's an outside chance he plays, and I don't know
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: how the Ravens are going to handle. Like, you're one
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: in four, but you have a bye coming up, and
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: you're still playing a really good Rams team. So but
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: do you want to drop the one in five versus
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: risking Lamar if he is able to go? If he
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: is able to go, like, but he's definitely not gonna
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: bet a hun percent, and you risk losing them long term.
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: So I don't know how they're gonna wear those options.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: You also have all the other injuries. You know you're
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: you're Ronnie Stanley or Kyle Hamilton. I mean Humphrey and
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: rokeland Smith, your entire defensive line, your corners, like all
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: these A lot of these guys are going to be out.
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: So it's a mess. So if you wanted to, like speculative,
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: bet on the Ravens plus seven and a half in
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: case the Mark comes back, it would close under seven
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: for sure, and then if you wanted to, you could
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: just get out of it. But i'd write without knowing
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: the injury report. I can't do anything there. The other
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: one you mentioned was the Raiders.
• 26:43
  Speaker 6: The Raiders are four and a half point favorite.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing for me in
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: the Titans at four and a half, I could think
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: about the Raiders, And you gotta remember the Titans were
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: about to be down twenty eight six in that game
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: to the Cardinals, who are beat up a non elite team,
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: and they had every thing go their way. This is
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: still Brian Callahan, who's still four and twenty against the spread.
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: The Raiders have been a mess, but it all starts
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: with their offensive line, and it's caused Geno to be
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: a mess. Gino has been really bad under pressure when
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: he has to throw quick like if he has time,
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: is brock Bower is going to play though? Like brock
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: Bowers is really really critical piece to that offense.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: What a mishandled injury.
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, very very freely handled. So but like the Titans
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: aren't going to take advantage of the Raiders offensive line.
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: Arden Key also got hurt, like they just have no
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: edge rush. So yeah, it would be Raiders or nothing.
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: So yeah, again, that's just the nature of how I
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: bet the NFL. I would look at all those teams.
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: The Ravens are just too different. It's too difficult right
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: now to say anything about because of the injury report.
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: But of the three, I would go Raiders for this week,
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: Raiders then Jets, then Ravens, ranking in order of interest.
• 28:01
  Speaker 6: What about you, Kendrick, Are you breaking any of them
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: out of bet jail?
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: No, I'm not breaking any of them out of bet jail.
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: Yet I do agree about the injury report. I know
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: it's not an option that I was provided, But if
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: I'm going to look anywhere for like an underdog situation,
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: I'm kind of low key looking at the Browns to
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: cover the five and a half.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: So then I know, I just don't believe.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: In Yeah, that might deliver us perfectly to our plant
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: your flag game of the week, might flag in a
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: shut up.
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: Okay, you're really.
• 28:37
  Speaker 6: Planting your flag in that thing.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: I have two that I'm deciding between and the Steelers
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: minus the five or four and a half, which you
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: can get it over on DraftKings the crown is yours,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: or the.
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: Panthers plus three and a half. I've been teetering.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I have bets placed on both, so I guess I'm
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: just gonna say that I have two. I'm planting two
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: flags this week. Panthers plus three and a half at
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: home against the Cowboys, Steelers minus five at home against
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the Browns. This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Browns.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: They come back after a trip to London, take on
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: a Steelers team that's been on a by and you
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: still have a rookie quarterback who looked all right, but
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: now he's gonna go up against the Steelers pass rush
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh with the terrible towels waving. I think Aaron
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Rodgers is really good at getting the ball out of
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: his hands quickly, so he can gate some of that
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: pass rush from Cleveland and they might get some guys
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: back in this one too.
• 29:32
  Speaker 6: So this feels like.
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: Thirty eight and a half though, and you think that
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: they're gonna cover five five and a half like that,
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: Just that doesn't feel right to me.
• 29:41
  Speaker 6: I would not bet it past five, but if you
• 29:43
  Speaker 6: can get it four and a half.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Sitting right now at DraftKings, I bet it at five,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: just because I don't like delay the minus one fifteen.
• 29:49
  Speaker 6: I got it minus one ten.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: But the Steelers would be one the Panthers or the
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: other another schedule spot disaster the Cowboys. This is their
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: third road game in four weeks, and Stucky, you're gonna
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: love this one because you love my power ratings. I
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: have the I have the Cowboys as one point favorites
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: in this game. Apparently, apparently I I'm having to relook
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: at the Panthers a little bit.
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: But still, even if I were to.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Bump them up or bump them down, this is still
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: a bye on the Carolina Panthers. You got a Rico
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Dalble revenge game. Kidding sort of. The Cowboys do have
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the worst graded run defense in the NFL. Taking on
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: a guy that just rumbled for two hundred yards. Who
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: used to play for them? Ceedee Lamb might come back
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: in this game. That would push the line to four
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: to four and a half. So if you want to,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: and the Panthers are unbeaten at home, Cowboys off of
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: a blowout win, so give me the points.
• 30:46
  Speaker 6: I think that's but those are my those are my
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: two plant the flag game.
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with on the Panthers,
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: but I gotta wait on the injury like I make
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: it two. On the surface, I mean, the Cowboys have
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: wins over the Jets and the and then a miraculous
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: win over Russell Wilson and the Giants. But their run
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: game has been really good, which like the Cardinals. Clay Adams,
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: he went from Arizona to Dallas in the offseason and
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: their run game has been outstanding. And we were laughing
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: at their coordinator, their coaching, their running back room, and
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: their offensive line has been hurt and their their running
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: game has been really good. And Dak has been amazing.
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: But there were about four starting offensive linemen last week.
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: I assumed Tyler Smith will be back. We the other three,
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: I don't know, Uh, Turpin and Lamb. I don't know.
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: So yeah, well, Panthers could get Coker back, which I
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: think could be big. I like some of the things
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: I saw from from uh Jimmy Horn last week. So
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: we had over a field goal, I don't I don't
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: mind that. Yeah, the spot for the Steelers is great,
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: but am I running to lay points with that team
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: in the divisional game with such a low total. The
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: Browns should be able to run the ball on the Steelers,
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: which is all they want to do, and then short
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: pass to neutralize their pass rush and they should have
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: success running the ball in Pittsburgh. And Judkins has looked
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: pretty good. So yeah, the spots scream Steelers, but I'm
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: not running to light to have needed the win by
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: a touchdown plus. So of those two, I think I
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: would prefer Carolina, but a lot of injuries to wait on.
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: I'll play my flag. I'll go. I'll go Falcons plus
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: four and a half at DraftKings or Mother Night Football
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: against the Bills. The Bills right now just are not
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: playing great football, and they've played since the miraculous comeback
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: against the Ravens. They've played a joke of a schedule.
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, you lose at home to the Patriots. They
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: were in they were at risk of losing to the
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: Saints at home. They were even at risk of losing
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: to the Dolphins at home. Those games were all close.
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: The defense is bad right now. The linebackers who are
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: hurt are bad. Matt Malona looks washed at Oliver. Is
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: he going to play? I don't know. But the secondary's
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: not even playing well. The safeties aren't great, the corners
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: aren't playing at a high level. And you can run
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: on Buffalo. Well, that's that's bad news. Against Atlanta and
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: their run game. With Bijon and al Jieir, I think
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: Atlanta will be able to move the ball. Atlanta's defense
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: should be healthier. Aj Terrell should come back now. Josh
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: Allen indoors. He's gonna score points. He's Josh Allen. But
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: the one thing you want to do against him, done
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: a lot of work on this is like you you
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: want to blitz him, and if you look at his
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: numbers just EPA for play the last two years, his
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: numbers are much worse. When you blitz him, you can't
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: just sit back, and you can't just sit back or
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: play man like he's gonna make plays. You have to
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: just bring pressure, and the Falcons are blitzing one of
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: the highest rates in the NFL, and it's an improved defense,
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: so if they're off the by they should be helped.
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: Like they're wide receivers. I've been dealing with injuries, So yeah,
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: four and a half. I think I'll plant my flag
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: on the Falcons on Monday Night. I think that's a
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: game that goes right down to the wire.
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: I am going to plant my flag on the Patriots
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: minus three and a half, I think, regardless of the
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: fact that it's back to back road games for them,
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: it was a Drake May coming out party. I'm hoping
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: that they learn from their mistakes and give Trevon Henderson
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: some more time. I don't understand what is going on
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: with that coaching staff and not allowing him to play.
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: People up here really pissed about it, regardless of the way,
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: and I think that they're making a huge mistake with
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: that situation. But they're getting healthier, they're getting better. The
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: Saints have so many injuries. Don't really care that it's
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: at home for them. Spencer Ratler whatever, I get that
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: people think that he's out kicking his coverage a bit
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: that's got to end at some point. I'm sure they're
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: going to have some packages for Taysom Hill, but they're
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: just injured. And the Patriots really surprised.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Me this week.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: I think that they're finally coming together, whether it's Drake
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: May finally being able to buy in or understand or
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: remember the Josh McDaniel's playbook, because it's known for being complicated,
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: and I think that that was probably a big struggle
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: for him in the first few weeks, was just that
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: he wasn't confident or caught up or well rehearsed enough
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: with the Josh McDaniels system to be comfortable. But they
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: they won that game the other night. They deserve to
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: win that game the other night. We can talk about
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: the Bills issues that they're having all we want, but
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: they still beat the Bills in Orchard Park in primetime.
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: I think it's a good confidence spot for them. And
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: you know, they finally got Hunter Henry involved in the
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: past game. I think that that was huge for them.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: Stefan looks like he's finally healthy. I just I think
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: that this is a better spot for the Patriots against
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: a crappy New Orleans Saints team that's injured, don't.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Care, back to back road spots.
• 35:41
  Speaker 6: Whatever.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: Give me the Patriots.
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: They're buying high on the Pats. And now.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: They beat the Bills, the Cowboys, and the Patriots this week.
• 35:54
  Speaker 6: Who am I help?
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah? I look this line is now now that it's
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: crossed three because the Patriots won and Drake Mays look great.
• 36:03
  Speaker 6: People.
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: Everyone disrespects the Saints, and the Saints are better than
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: people give them credit for.
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: Them. There's some spread covering bastards is what they are.
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, I mean they they easily could have won
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: in Buffalo. A couple of plays break their way. They
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: beat the Giants. They had one game go haywire and
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: it was in Seattle because of a ton of special
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: teams mistakes, rattlers playing decently. We'll see how this this
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: new Patriots team can handle. That's the success. That's just
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: it's a bad spot. Like going down to New Orleans
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: after that huge winning Prime time over Buffalo screams like
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: sleepy fat flat spot to me. And I think that
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: there's there's some opportunities for New Orleans to move the ball.
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: But I have to dig a little deeper onto that one.
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: But uh yeah, we shall see.
• 36:56
  Speaker 6: All right, it is time for the main events.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, the director of research over at Action Network, joins.
• 37:03
  Speaker 6: Us now for the primer.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: No betting week can start without reading the primer Overtactionnetwork
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: dot Com.
• 37:10
  Speaker 6: Evan, Welcome to this show.
• 37:13
  Speaker 7: What's going on everybody? I mean, we had to know
• 37:16
  Speaker 7: that the underdog Week was coming soon. Everyone had been
• 37:20
  Speaker 7: teasing it and teasing it, but it finally came upon us.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: What were the numbers that you shared on Twitter this morning?
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Nine and five straight up? Was it for underdogs?
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: Yeah? Crazy? So most outright?
• 37:34
  Speaker 7: Nine five was right, most outright wins by dogs in
• 37:36
  Speaker 7: a single week since twenty two beginning of twenty twenty two,
• 37:40
  Speaker 7: and dogs hadn't gone nine and five straight up or
• 37:42
  Speaker 7: better in a single.
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: Week since twenty seventeen, so we had been waiting a
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: little while for this.
• 37:46
  Speaker 7: I think the craziest is the fact that the Niners, Titans,
• 37:50
  Speaker 7: Patriots all plus seven and a half all outright only
• 37:53
  Speaker 7: a third time last decade we've seen three of those
• 37:56
  Speaker 7: dogs come throughout right in a single week. I think
• 37:59
  Speaker 7: the interesting thing, which I'll look at and probably having
• 38:01
  Speaker 7: the article by today, is what happens after those weeks
• 38:05
  Speaker 7: when you see some of these outliers. I'm sure it's
• 38:08
  Speaker 7: not crazy, but you know, i'd be expecting fifty six
• 38:10
  Speaker 7: fifty five percent against the spreads for favorites. Maybe a
• 38:14
  Speaker 7: little bit of a bounce back, but interesting nonetheless in
• 38:17
  Speaker 7: terms of also the.
• 38:18
  Speaker 5: Line movement this week to see if there's any impact there.
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: But yeah, crazy.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: One what is the what is the one the one
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: item from the primer that's about to drop if it
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: hasn't already that it stands out to you this week?
• 38:35
  Speaker 7: I would just say teams off of losses, so Heurts
• 38:39
  Speaker 7: Mahomes Josh Stafford. How many weeks do you see were
• 38:44
  Speaker 7: all those quarterbacks coming off losses? And the Packers basically
• 38:47
  Speaker 7: not a loss but a buy off of a tie
• 38:50
  Speaker 7: and a loss, so they're trying to get back on
• 38:52
  Speaker 7: track as well. So some really good teams where I
• 38:56
  Speaker 7: think people are seeing the inevitable.
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: So it's interesting to see how the lines move on that.
• 39:00
  Speaker 7: And also the most fun thing, I could say, only
• 39:03
  Speaker 7: two qbs with three and oh ats are better as
• 39:05
  Speaker 7: a favorite this season Jared Duff and of course Daniel Jones,
• 39:10
  Speaker 7: So I can't wait to see if that continues.
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: But I think that's the fun stuff.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: What about the Browns come back over from London they
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: didn't take the bye week. Do you have anything on
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: teams that have that scheduled disadvantage that don't take the
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: buye after the international travel.
• 39:28
  Speaker 8: I mean, honestly, it's amusually with the Steelers today. Honestly,
• 39:32
  Speaker 8: it's usually not a terrible sign. So the in season
• 39:35
  Speaker 8: buy has done the Steelers well at least. I think
• 39:38
  Speaker 8: there's a few ways look at this.
• 39:39
  Speaker 7: There's the in season by because Steeler's coming off the
• 39:43
  Speaker 7: buy in that one, So I think there's a way
• 39:44
  Speaker 7: to look at it from Tomlin's point of view. But
• 39:46
  Speaker 7: from the Browns, it's turning from London without a bye week.
• 39:48
  Speaker 7: Cleveland will be the twenty fifteen They're turned back to
• 39:51
  Speaker 7: the States without a bye after playing an international game
• 39:54
  Speaker 7: fifteen and nine straight up, thirteen and eleven ats on
• 39:57
  Speaker 7: a short rest situation. It's not it's not terrible, not
• 40:02
  Speaker 7: bad at all, And the Browns will be on the road.
• 40:04
  Speaker 7: Of the twenty four previous teams, only one didn't play
• 40:07
  Speaker 7: at home. So Brown's also in a unique situation where
• 40:10
  Speaker 7: mostly teams they send them back home after these road
• 40:14
  Speaker 7: trips out overseas. Brown's not in that spot, so a.
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: Little bit of a unique one. But the play has
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: been decent.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: And how many of them are not only not at home,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: but also facing a team that just came off the bye.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: That's that's part of that uniqueness to it.
• 40:30
  Speaker 7: I mean, what about this, I mean Brown, I mean,
• 40:32
  Speaker 7: you'll probably hear this all week, but they've lost twenty
• 40:34
  Speaker 7: one straight regular season games in Pittsburgh, so that will
• 40:37
  Speaker 7: be something you'll hear all week and maybe a little
• 40:39
  Speaker 7: motivation they aren't still.
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: And at home by the teams at home off of
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: the by though, have been overvalue. That spot's been over
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: value for year. I mean, because you don't even practice
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: in a bye week anymore. It's just basically just a
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: week off. Now. It helps in the injury front, but
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: do you have that pandy like teams home teams home
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: favorites off of a bye I think I feel like
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: that spot's been over value for the last like five years,
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: and they haven't performed well against the spread. I could
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: be off though.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Practice this week interesting.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: A bunch of people on vacation saw some of the
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: girly pops I know with their boyfriends on the road.
• 41:14
  Speaker 6: All right, that'll do it.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: We have a lot of games that we still have
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: not yet to discuss, forty nine Ers Buccaneers being one
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: of those. How about a two touchdown favorite Green Bay
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: Packers taking on the disgusting Cincinnati Bengals. These are all
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: things that we'll get to on Thursday's episode, including our
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: official two Kings and a Queen parlay. That's it for
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: today's episode special. Thanks Deavin Abrams, we appreciate it. Go
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: check out the primer David Payne, Gifford Gould, our producers.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Thursday. Right here on the
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page for week six best Bets. We'll
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: see here next time on The Favorites presented by Draft Kings,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: where out Lego.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 42:08
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• 42:11
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• 42:14
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