Latest / Yaron Brook Show / Birthright Citizenship; War Update; NATO; Drone Killers; Recession? | Yaron Brook Show
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- 0:04Speaker 1: A lot of it, fundamental principles of edom ltual self
- 0:09Speaker 1: interesting and an individual.
- 0:12Speaker 2: Wise, this is.
- 0:22Speaker 1: Oh right, everybody, welcome to one book show on this Wednesday,
- 0:27Speaker 1: April first, And I promise no April fools jokes today.
- 0:32Speaker 1: This is a new show. You have to be serious, no, seriously. Yeah,
- 0:39Speaker 1: there's just too many fools out there in the world
- 0:41Speaker 1: for us to have to add to that. I haven't
- 0:44Speaker 1: seen much kind of newsy stuff that has an April
- 0:49Speaker 1: Fool's Day feel to it. I don't know if you
- 0:51Speaker 1: guys have. Usually there's something and sometimes even fall for them,
- 0:57Speaker 1: but I haven't seen anything newsy that looks suspicious like that.
- 1:04Speaker 1: Maybe maybe maybe you know, yeah, I mean maybe you
- 1:09Speaker 1: read every day what Trump says. It feels like April
- 1:12Speaker 1: Fool's Day, So we don't need a special liple Fool's
- 1:15Speaker 1: Day stuff to come out. Who knows. Anyway, today was
- 1:19Speaker 1: a big day at the Supreing Court, and I'm going
- 1:22Speaker 1: to start with that rather than start with the war.
- 1:24Speaker 1: I figured i'd mix it up a little bit, just
- 1:26Speaker 1: because you know, some of you have war fatigue. I'm
- 1:31Speaker 1: going to give Robert a a hard time for a
- 1:34Speaker 1: long time about this. Some of you might have war fatigue.
- 1:37Speaker 1: So I want to give you a little break while
- 1:39Speaker 1: we talk about the Supreme Court and both right citizenship,
- 1:43Speaker 1: and then we'll get to the war, because after all,
- 1:45Speaker 1: it's a new show, so we have to talk about
- 1:48Speaker 1: the war. But but yeah, big, big day. It's it's
- 1:55Speaker 1: a it's a a significant case because it goes there
- 2:00Speaker 1: to the Constitution and to the interpretation of the Constitution.
- 2:05Speaker 1: It is you know, probably is not going to be close.
- 2:09Speaker 1: That is that I think. I don't think anybody thinks
- 2:14Speaker 1: that this is going to be a close decision, But
- 2:17Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting on what grounds exactly, And
- 2:20Speaker 1: you know, whether they grounded in the Constitution or they
- 2:22Speaker 1: grounded in specific legislation that will determine kind of the
- 2:26Speaker 1: future of the whole birthright issue. So let's just give
- 2:30Speaker 1: you a little bit of background. The first executive order, sorry,
- 2:35Speaker 1: maybe not the first, but on his first day in office,
- 2:39Speaker 1: one of the executive orders that Donald Trump signed was
- 2:43Speaker 1: the Birthright Citizenship Executive Order. The basically said that if
- 2:50Speaker 1: you are born in the United States, you are not
- 2:53Speaker 1: automatically a US citizen. So if your parents, for example, illegalitigrants,
- 3:00Speaker 1: you are not a US citizen, or even more broadly,
- 3:08Speaker 1: if your parents are here on a temporary visa, that is,
- 3:12Speaker 1: they are not permanent residents of the United States, you
- 3:15Speaker 1: are not a US citizen. So according to that reading
- 3:20Speaker 1: of the executive voter, my kids, luckily they both have
- 3:23Speaker 1: now passport, so they wouldn't be affected by the way
- 3:28Speaker 1: the executive voter was not was did not apply to
- 3:35Speaker 1: the past. They only apply to the future, which is
- 3:37Speaker 1: weird because if it's a constitutional issue, it should apply
- 3:40Speaker 1: to you know, since if you're overturning, you know, something ancient,
- 3:46Speaker 1: it should apply backwards. But they're not applying it backwards.
- 3:49Speaker 1: They're not asking the only only forward prosecutive I think
- 3:53Speaker 1: they said. Anyway, but my kids were born when I
- 3:57Speaker 1: was on an F one visas student visa, which is
- 4:01Speaker 1: considered a temporary visa. Uh. Even an H one B
- 4:05Speaker 1: visa is considered a temporary visa. So according to the
- 4:10Speaker 1: executive order the Trump signed, children would only be citizens
- 4:16Speaker 1: if their parents were citizens, or if their parents were
- 4:20Speaker 1: permanent residents of the United States, for example, Green cord holders.
- 4:26Speaker 1: Uh and and and so he signed it. Uh. It
- 4:32Speaker 1: was overturned by the lower court. And if you remember
- 4:38Speaker 1: the there was. It was a it was a it
- 4:41Speaker 1: was a lower court, and they did a nationwide injunction
- 4:45Speaker 1: so that it applied nationwide, it could not be applied
- 4:49Speaker 1: the birthright citizenship pool. And then that then the trumpet
- 4:53Speaker 1: administation sued about whether the lower court, the lower court,
- 4:58Speaker 1: Federal court, could do a nationwide injunction or just an
- 5:03Speaker 1: injunction in the case that they were hearing, and that
- 5:06Speaker 1: went to the Supreme Court last year, and the Supreme
- 5:09Speaker 1: Court ruled for the Trump administration, and that is they
- 5:12Speaker 1: ruled not on the birthright citizenship issue. They ruled about
- 5:18Speaker 1: whether you could have a nationwide injunction based on a
- 5:22Speaker 1: one case. They can only have an injunction related to
- 5:26Speaker 1: that case. And that's how the Supreme Court ruled. And
- 5:29Speaker 1: then what happened is the ACLU rounded up a bunch
- 5:32Speaker 1: of the cases and filed a class action suit in
- 5:37Speaker 1: the name of basically all children born to illegal immigrants
- 5:41Speaker 1: or to temporary residents of the United States in their name.
- 5:46Speaker 1: That was then the quote ruled against the Trump administration
- 5:52Speaker 1: and placed a nationwide injunction and I think that holds.
- 5:56Speaker 1: And now the actual birthright city reationship issue came in
- 6:02Speaker 1: front of the court, and today they was they were
- 6:10Speaker 1: what do you call it? All arguments regarding the case,
- 6:14Speaker 1: and often from all arguments you can get at least
- 6:17Speaker 1: a sense of whether of how the justices are going
- 6:21Speaker 1: to war, and you get some insight into what the case,
- 6:26Speaker 1: how they're thinking about it. Anyway, a few things of
- 6:31Speaker 1: note about this. Trump tweeted two days ago. This is
- 6:37Speaker 1: what he tweeted. Birthright citizenship is not about rich people
- 6:41Speaker 1: from China and the rest of the world who want
- 6:43Speaker 1: their children and hundreds of thousands more for pay to
- 6:47Speaker 1: ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It
- 6:51Speaker 1: is about the babies of slaves. This is the question
- 6:54Speaker 1: of the fourteenth Amendment. We are the only country in
- 6:57Speaker 1: the world that dignifies this subject with even discussion. Look
- 7:01Speaker 1: at the dates on this long ago legislation, the exact
- 7:05Speaker 1: end of the Civil War. So our legislation, it was
- 7:08Speaker 1: an amendment to Constitution. But okay, the world is getting
- 7:11Speaker 1: rich selling citizenships to our country, while at the same
- 7:14Speaker 1: time laughing at how stupid our US Supreme Court Court system,
- 7:20Speaker 1: our US court system has become. And he puts in
- 7:23Speaker 1: parentheses tariffs quote, dumb judges and justices will make a will,
- 7:31Speaker 1: not a great country make. She's calling out justice is dumb. Anyway,
- 7:38Speaker 1: what was really unique about today was that for the
- 7:42Speaker 1: first time in the history of the Supreme Court. I
- 7:44Speaker 1: think this is true. That is the first time in
- 7:47Speaker 1: the history of Supreme Court, the sitting president of the
- 7:50Speaker 1: United States actually made an appearance in court. So he
- 7:54Speaker 1: came to the court hearing to the arguments, He sat
- 7:59Speaker 1: some way in the front row, wrote he heard the
- 8:03Speaker 1: Solicitor General defend the executive order. My understanding is the
- 8:08Speaker 1: ones the Solicitor of General his portion of it ended.
- 8:14Speaker 1: Trump got up and left. His appearance in the court
- 8:18Speaker 1: suggests how important this issue is to him. It suggest
- 8:24Speaker 1: how important this is to a certain faction on the
- 8:28Speaker 1: right that is obsessed about immigration and is obsessed about
- 8:33Speaker 1: the nature of the country. Uh and uh yeah. So
- 8:38Speaker 1: this is a big, big deal for the for the president.
- 8:41Speaker 1: Note that in his tweet he mentioned this idea of
- 8:45Speaker 1: of of birth citizenship right people, birth citorship, birth tourism people. Uh,
- 8:52Speaker 1: you know, coming here as tourists in a sense and
- 8:54Speaker 1: giving birth or hiring surrogates to Americans and giving birth
- 8:57Speaker 1: and doing stuff like that. We talked about this on
- 8:59Speaker 1: a previous show, that the courts are not recognizing many
- 9:02Speaker 1: of the babies as US citizens. Who are you who
- 9:04Speaker 1: use some against where the kid is then shipped off
- 9:07Speaker 1: to China. They're not recognize that. So the courts are already
- 9:09Speaker 1: dealing with that. But that's the issue he mentioned now.
- 9:13Speaker 1: It is interesting that some legal experts speculate that if
- 9:18Speaker 1: that would have been the executive order, if you'd put
- 9:21Speaker 1: together an executive orders, said we don't, you know, we
- 9:26Speaker 1: should not recognize the birthright citizenship of children born of
- 9:31Speaker 1: tourists who come here just to give birth or who
- 9:34Speaker 1: have some against so, you know, whatever you want to
- 9:36Speaker 1: define it. If that's what he would have done, if
- 9:39Speaker 1: that would have been an executive order, then it's possible
- 9:43Speaker 1: the court would have upheld it would have supported it,
- 9:48Speaker 1: or it's possible in that case that the court would
- 9:50Speaker 1: have said, you know, this is possible, but it's just
- 9:56Speaker 1: not an executive order. It's not within your authority. But
- 10:00Speaker 1: if a bill came from Congress, this suggested that we
- 10:03Speaker 1: would not object to it. So, given the narrowness of
- 10:08Speaker 1: an executive voder like that or congressional law like that,
- 10:14Speaker 1: the Swimme Court could have it might have indeed approved it.
- 10:20Speaker 1: But Trump went for the broad. He went for a
- 10:25Speaker 1: complete re understanding, a rethinking of what the fourteenth Amendment
- 10:35Speaker 1: actually says and actually means. And therefore he went for
- 10:40Speaker 1: a broad decision. And I think the main target of
- 10:42Speaker 1: the decision are illegal immigrants, but generally it's just people
- 10:46Speaker 1: here temporarily, even if they become permanent, if they have kids.
- 10:51Speaker 1: While temporary, the kids are not automatically US citizens. So
- 10:55Speaker 1: he went over the whole thing for the whole thing. Now,
- 11:06Speaker 1: it's also important to note here that the court could
- 11:10Speaker 1: decide that this is not within the purview of the
- 11:13Speaker 1: executive that they could dismiss this just by saying, yeah,
- 11:19Speaker 1: this is not something an executive or it can do,
- 11:23Speaker 1: but we will consider legislation. Or they could say no,
- 11:30Speaker 1: this is a constitutional issue. This is clearly unconstitutional, not
- 11:33Speaker 1: only because it's not in the purview of the president
- 11:35Speaker 1: to do, but because it goes against the very language
- 11:39Speaker 1: of the Constitution, and that would rule out a legislation, legislative,
- 11:46Speaker 1: you know, alternative. So that's kind of how people are
- 11:51Speaker 1: are thinking about it, looking at it. Is this going
- 11:54Speaker 1: to be Is this going to be a broad decision,
- 11:57Speaker 1: a constitutional decision that basically he kills this issue at
- 12:01Speaker 1: least for a long time, or is this going to
- 12:05Speaker 1: be a no other decision. Now, let's just go of
- 12:07Speaker 1: a little bit of the history, and I think the
- 12:10Speaker 1: history is fascinating here and how we got to this,
- 12:13Speaker 1: and why the Constitution even why this is even a
- 12:20Speaker 1: constitutional issue, why it became a constitutional amendment, the fourteenth Amendment,
- 12:24Speaker 1: why it was included there, and all of that. And
- 12:27Speaker 1: to really understand that, you have to first understand that
- 12:30Speaker 1: the Constitution itself does not clearly define citizenship at both.
- 12:37Speaker 1: So there's nothing in the original Constitution that says you
- 12:41Speaker 1: are a citizen at birth. Now English common law English
- 12:49Speaker 1: common law basically gravitate towards something called just solely the
- 12:58Speaker 1: right of the soil an. The idea here is that
- 13:03Speaker 1: both within the sovereigns domain confirms alliance and subject could
- 13:09Speaker 1: in other words, citizenship. So countries that have legal systems
- 13:16Speaker 1: based on English common law basically had rules that say,
- 13:21Speaker 1: if you're born on our territory, if you're born in
- 13:25Speaker 1: our territory, no matter who your parents are, if you
- 13:27Speaker 1: were born in a territory, you were then automatically a citizen.
- 13:32Speaker 1: And indeed in the United States in the early part
- 13:35Speaker 1: of in the early part of American history before the
- 13:41Speaker 1: Civil War, that was what was used, was it was
- 13:45Speaker 1: common law. It was assumed that if you were born
- 13:48Speaker 1: in the United States, you were you're citizen. That wasn't
- 13:52Speaker 1: in the Constitution, but it was just something that wasn't,
- 13:56Speaker 1: you know, a part of kind of the the civil
- 14:00Speaker 1: the common law tradition coming out of out of England.
- 14:05Speaker 1: But a problem of course there rose, well what about slaves.
- 14:09Speaker 1: An assumption was, no, slaves, they are property, they're not citizens.
- 14:14Speaker 1: And therefore, you know, in the South, at least they
- 14:18Speaker 1: are they are not h And indeed this led to
- 14:26Speaker 1: a real led to a famous case, course right case
- 14:33Speaker 1: in Supme Court history, dred Scott versus Stanford. We'll get
- 14:38Speaker 1: to that in a second. So the so in early
- 14:45Speaker 1: US history, there's a lot of ambiguity, there's a lot
- 14:48Speaker 1: of ambiguity. Now let's talk about the dread Scott versus Sandford, Uh,
- 14:57Speaker 1: you know, which was a decisive and actually led ultimately
- 15:01Speaker 1: to the Fourteenth Amendment. Red Scott, who was an enslaved
- 15:06Speaker 1: man owned by an army surgeon in the South, but
- 15:11Speaker 1: he lived extended periods in free territories in Illinois and Wisconsin.
- 15:18Speaker 1: After returning to Missouri, which was a slave state, Scott
- 15:22Speaker 1: sued for his freedom, arguing, once free, always free. I mean,
- 15:30Speaker 1: imagine a time where that was that was the issue.
- 15:33Speaker 1: We've come a long way in many respects of America,
- 15:36Speaker 1: so much better. Anyway, Missouri courts initially accepted this logic,
- 15:43Speaker 1: but then reversed themselves, setting up a federal case. And
- 15:49Speaker 1: basically the legal questions were, one, can an African American
- 15:53Speaker 1: be a US citizen and sue in federal court? Two
- 15:59Speaker 1: living in a free r story making enslaved person free?
- 16:03Speaker 1: Three can Congress banned slavery in US territories that haven't
- 16:10Speaker 1: been granted statehood? And in nineteen fifty seven the Supreme
- 16:15Speaker 1: Court ruled in a I think it was seven to two,
- 16:22Speaker 1: and this is how they ruled. Black Americans were not citizens.
- 16:27Speaker 1: The court ruled that people of African descent, free or enslaved,
- 16:32Speaker 1: had no rights which the white man was bound to respect.
- 16:38Speaker 1: Pretty crazy. They Firstcott could not sue in federal court.
- 16:44Speaker 1: So black people were residents of the United States. They
- 16:50Speaker 1: were in the United States in the North. Let's say
- 16:54Speaker 1: eighteen fifty seven, did I say nineteen fifty seven, eighteen
- 16:57Speaker 1: fifty seven, obviously before the Civil War. But they were
- 17:02Speaker 1: not citizens. They were not citizens, and in that respect,
- 17:07Speaker 1: they did not have the four rights that a citizen has,
- 17:12Speaker 1: for example, could ensue federal court. Two, Congress lacked power
- 17:19Speaker 1: to restrict slavery in territories. That is, slavery was deemed
- 17:24Speaker 1: a state issue. The courte declared that the Missouri Compromise
- 17:29Speaker 1: was unconstitutional. The Missouri was a territory in those days.
- 17:34Speaker 1: It held the banning slavery in territories violated staveholder property
- 17:38Speaker 1: rights under the Constitution. And Three, the residents in free
- 17:44Speaker 1: territory did not make Scott free. The quote rejected the
- 17:49Speaker 1: idea the time spent in free territory changed his legal status.
- 17:56Speaker 1: The reasoning was the Founder did not intend black people
- 17:59Speaker 1: to become citizens. It was a property rights argument, and
- 18:03Speaker 1: slave people were legally property protected by the Fifth Amendment.
- 18:08Speaker 1: The duposs carouse think about that. That's one hundred and
- 18:12Speaker 1: seventy years ago in America. The decision was it created
- 18:20Speaker 1: real shockwaves around the country, right, you know, it radicalized
- 18:27Speaker 1: the conflict between the North and the South. It made
- 18:30Speaker 1: slavi a national issue because Congress, you know, Congress could
- 18:39Speaker 1: not limit it. It invalidated decades of political compromise like
- 18:46Speaker 1: the Missouri Compromise. It strengthened the pro slavery forces as
- 18:53Speaker 1: tensions arising right and indeed, in the Lincoln Dongal List
- 18:58Speaker 1: debates of of the election, this became a major issue
- 19:04Speaker 1: that they were debating. Lincoln argued the decision was morally
- 19:07Speaker 1: wrong and politically dangerous, and ultimately it helped push the
- 19:12Speaker 1: country towards the Civil War. Now, after the Civil War,
- 19:17Speaker 1: it was basically nullified the thirteenth Amendment to the United
- 19:21Speaker 1: States about a slavery. The fourteenth Amendment to the United
- 19:23Speaker 1: States established both rights citizenship, and the fifteenth Amendment to
- 19:27Speaker 1: the United States protected voting rights at least for men
- 19:32Speaker 1: regardless of race. So all of this kind of led
- 19:36Speaker 1: us to the writing of the fourteenth Amendment that basically said,
- 19:42Speaker 1: if you're born in the United States, no matter your race,
- 19:47Speaker 1: and here is specifically it is addressing the issue of slavery,
- 19:54Speaker 1: if you're born in the United States, then you are
- 19:57Speaker 1: US citizens. This is the clause. All persons born or
- 20:02Speaker 1: naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction
- 20:06Speaker 1: thereof are citizens. This overturns dred Scots. It establishes, it
- 20:15Speaker 1: establishes the you know, rule of the soil, if you will,
- 20:21Speaker 1: the old British idea of right of the soil as
- 20:25Speaker 1: a constitutional principle as constitutional law. And it makes citizenship
- 20:29Speaker 1: of both right independent of race, independent of race. Now,
- 20:34Speaker 1: this was challenged. This was challenged pretty early on in
- 20:42Speaker 1: a case, God, I do I have the name of
- 20:45Speaker 1: the case. Let me just find this one second I had.
- 20:59Speaker 1: I had this article here with it one side. Yeah.
- 21:02Speaker 1: This was challenging early on in a case that related
- 21:06Speaker 1: to a Chinese man who was born in the United
- 21:12Speaker 1: States Chinese parents. Now, the Chinese parents were temporary workers
- 21:17Speaker 1: in the United States. They were here to I don't
- 21:20Speaker 1: build the railroad something. They were here, and then he
- 21:23Speaker 1: was born, He gained American citizenship supposedly right, and then
- 21:29Speaker 1: he was taken back by his parents to China and
- 21:33Speaker 1: he grew up in China. This is this is a
- 21:37Speaker 1: case in eighteen ninety eight. The case is called the
- 21:40Speaker 1: United States versus One kim arc Right. So his parents
- 21:47Speaker 1: were not you as citizens. Indeed, I didn't know this.
- 21:49Speaker 1: Maybe you guys knew this, But do you know that
- 21:52Speaker 1: until nineteen fifty two, anybody who was not white or
- 21:58Speaker 1: black could not be naturalized as an American citizen. That is,
- 22:06Speaker 1: you could come to the US, you could work here,
- 22:09Speaker 1: but you couldn't become a US citizen. So Chinese who
- 22:13Speaker 1: came to work in the US and for decades, or
- 22:17Speaker 1: Japanese who came here and worked in the United States
- 22:20Speaker 1: lived in the United States for decades, were by law
- 22:25Speaker 1: not allowed to be citizens, which is stunning to me.
- 22:31Speaker 1: I'm always surprised at how how much race played the
- 22:37Speaker 1: role in American history and how long it took and
- 22:42Speaker 1: to racist laws were eliminated from the books. Did you
- 22:49Speaker 1: know some of you might know this, but did you
- 22:51Speaker 1: know that the Supreme Quote only ruled that laws banning
- 22:58Speaker 1: mixed marriages mixed here means racial mixture, whatever the hell
- 23:03Speaker 1: that means? Race means racial mixture. Did not you know?
- 23:10Speaker 1: So there were states with you couldn't you couldn't marry
- 23:15Speaker 1: across races the state would recognize your wedding. Supre Code
- 23:19Speaker 1: only ruled that as unconstitutional in nineteen sixty seven, sixty seven.
- 23:23Speaker 1: I was already born, I was already right, So as late.
- 23:27Speaker 1: As you know, earlier in sixty seven, you couldn't get married.
- 23:31Speaker 1: If you were white and black and you were in
- 23:33Speaker 1: love and you wanted to get married in Virginia, couldn't
- 23:35Speaker 1: do it. It's against the law. Anyway. It wasn't just Chinese,
- 23:44Speaker 1: it was all Asians. I don't know what other races
- 23:47Speaker 1: they are. Certainly Asians couldn't. Blacks and whites could because
- 23:50Speaker 1: of the legacy of slavery. But I don't know what
- 23:54Speaker 1: other races they would count, you know, I'd have to
- 23:56Speaker 1: research that. There's a whole I mean, the United States.
- 24:00Speaker 1: It's sadly America played an enormous role in the eugenics movement. Indeed,
- 24:05Speaker 1: it kind of solidified it established it. And many of
- 24:08Speaker 1: the racial laws that the Germans institute in the nineteen
- 24:13Speaker 1: thirties in Germany were copied from stuff that Americans had written.
- 24:19Speaker 1: They were modeled after American laws, including laws that permitted
- 24:24Speaker 1: for stiilization and all kinds of I mean, it's horrific
- 24:27Speaker 1: the history of racism in this country, of race theory
- 24:30Speaker 1: never minded. Racism is really really horrific. Anyway. In ninety eight,
- 24:41Speaker 1: Wang Kim arc sued when he tried to come back
- 24:46Speaker 1: into the United States. He was told he couldn't because
- 24:49Speaker 1: he was not a US citizen because his parents were
- 24:54Speaker 1: now US citizen, he was Chinese, and Chinese people couldn't
- 24:57Speaker 1: be U citizens anyway. He suit under the Fourteenth Amendment,
- 25:04Speaker 1: and the Court upheld birthright citizenship eighteen forty eighteen ninety eight.
- 25:10Speaker 1: It wrote, wrote, quote in clear words and in manifest intent,
- 25:17Speaker 1: the Fourteenth Amendment includes the children born within the territory
- 25:22Speaker 1: of the United States of all other persons of whatever
- 25:27Speaker 1: race or color domiciled within the United States. So in
- 25:36Speaker 1: eighteen ninety eight, the Fourteenth Amendment was upheld in a
- 25:40Speaker 1: case I'm temporary workers having a child right. The court
- 25:50Speaker 1: explained that this was all you know, that the American
- 25:54Speaker 1: system had been relying on centuries of English law, that
- 25:58Speaker 1: it influenced the US Constitution that explained this, So long
- 26:02Speaker 1: as someone is domiciled on US soil, even if they
- 26:06Speaker 1: are citizens or subject of another country, and even if
- 26:10Speaker 1: they're alliance to America is fleeting because they returned to
- 26:14Speaker 1: their home country, then such persons are quote within the
- 26:19Speaker 1: alliance and the protection and consequently subject to the jurisdiction
- 26:25Speaker 1: of the United States. Thereby rendering the US born children citizens.
- 26:34Speaker 1: So again, the one kim Ok set the standard, and
- 26:42Speaker 1: since then it has been upheld. What Trump is asking
- 26:46Speaker 1: for is to reverse that decision and basically reinterpret the
- 26:52Speaker 1: fourteenth Amendment. Now supposedly the ideas behind the fourteenth Amendment
- 27:00Speaker 1: have also been codified in law. So it's also Congress
- 27:04Speaker 1: has backed US up with laws that have confirmed birthright citizenship.
- 27:09Speaker 1: So he's he's arguing against all of that. There was
- 27:14Speaker 1: another case though, There was another case interestingly that came
- 27:20Speaker 1: in nineteen forty two, which was trying to challenge one
- 27:24Speaker 1: kim arc and try to overturn that, you know, basically
- 27:29Speaker 1: reversed the interpretation of the fourteenth Amendment. And this was
- 27:31Speaker 1: during the incarceration of Japanese Americans on the West Coast.
- 27:39Speaker 1: The Native the what do they call it. They called
- 27:42Speaker 1: themselves the Native sons, Native sons of something or other,
- 27:50Speaker 1: the Native sons basically, you know, they called the native
- 27:56Speaker 1: sons Grand yeah, native sons. They basically father the lawsuit
- 28:02Speaker 1: in federal court against cam and King in the San
- 28:05Speaker 1: Francisco's Voting Registrar. The suits sought to strike some twenty
- 28:10Speaker 1: six hundred Japanese Americans who were born in the United
- 28:14Speaker 1: States to Japanese parents who were not American citizens. Why
- 28:19Speaker 1: were they not American citizens? Not because they intended to
- 28:22Speaker 1: go back to Japan. They were not American citizens because
- 28:25Speaker 1: the law of the land was if you were Japanese,
- 28:28Speaker 1: you could not become an American citizen. Anyway, they wanted
- 28:37Speaker 1: to have them stricken from the voting roles. But they
- 28:42Speaker 1: really asked the court to strike the names of all
- 28:47Speaker 1: Japanese from the registrant voters on the grounds that they
- 28:50Speaker 1: are enemy aliens citizens of Japan and therefore ineligible to
- 28:55Speaker 1: citizenship and the right to vote. The Native sons represented
- 29:00Speaker 1: by California, by former California attorney generals, they had, you know,
- 29:03Speaker 1: big names behind them, and you know what they wanted
- 29:08Speaker 1: was an overturning one. It came out they said this,
- 29:13Speaker 1: They argued this. I mean, you know, they acknowledged, for example,
- 29:22Speaker 1: that the fourteenth Amendment was to citizen and then to
- 29:29Speaker 1: enfranchise the Negro in their phrasing in the wake of
- 29:32Speaker 1: the Civil War. But he told the quote the lawsuit
- 29:36Speaker 1: concerned quote the right of citizenship of all people and
- 29:40Speaker 1: all races who do not fall under the characterization or
- 29:43Speaker 1: description of white people. The Fourteenth Amendment, he argued, gave
- 29:49Speaker 1: citizenship exclusively to the people born in the United States
- 29:53Speaker 1: whose parents were also eligible for citizenship, given that federal law,
- 29:58Speaker 1: with their exception, limited naturalization to white persons, persons of
- 30:03Speaker 1: African nativity or descent, and descendants of races indigenous to
- 30:08Speaker 1: the Western hemisphere. This was a sweeping argument, right. This
- 30:15Speaker 1: is from a Clinic article published two days ago describing
- 30:20Speaker 1: this case, this Japanese case, which I find fascinating because
- 30:23Speaker 1: again nineteen forty two, this is how racist Americans are.
- 30:28Speaker 1: So citizens you should only be grounded to white people.
- 30:36Speaker 1: So he contended, under this interpretation, native born Japanese Americans
- 30:40Speaker 1: were not citizens under the fourteenth Amendment. Of course, if
- 30:43Speaker 1: he succeeded, then this would also apply to Chinese people,
- 30:47Speaker 1: would apply to anybody from Asia, and you know Asia.
- 30:53Speaker 1: I don't know where else, because I don't know how
- 30:55Speaker 1: they categorize white exactly. Would it applied to the Middle East,
- 30:59Speaker 1: I don't know. I suppose the web and I'm reading
- 31:04Speaker 1: for the article. Web boasted his argument with a lengthy
- 31:06Speaker 1: speech in which asserted that the United States had been
- 31:10Speaker 1: set up by the white race nineteen forty two, and
- 31:13Speaker 1: that the Constitution's opening words referring to we the people
- 31:17Speaker 1: exclusively comprehend the white people. Turning to the Wang Kim
- 31:26Speaker 1: Arc case, Web dismissively described the holding as resting on
- 31:30Speaker 1: the idea that for no good reason, the United States
- 31:34Speaker 1: was bound by the common law of England, which had
- 31:37Speaker 1: somehow crept its way into American law anyway. To the
- 31:43Speaker 1: court's credit, they dismissed this argument very quickly, right, and
- 31:53Speaker 1: they said that wangki Arc was established law and biding President.
- 31:59Speaker 1: And they this was appealed to the Federal Ninth Circuit Court,
- 32:05Speaker 1: and the same arguments were made. You know, you know,
- 32:10Speaker 1: one of the things that the again the the the
- 32:20Speaker 1: native sons, one of the arguments they made is, quote,
- 32:23Speaker 1: because of racial characteristics of the Japanese, assimilation with Caucasians
- 32:28Speaker 1: is as impossible as it is undesirable. The brief that
- 32:33Speaker 1: you put together also claimed that dishonesty, deceit, and hypocrisy
- 32:37Speaker 1: a racial characteristics are persons of Japanese ancestry. Finally, it
- 32:44Speaker 1: argued a Japanese born in the United States is still
- 32:47Speaker 1: a Japanese. Now note that these of views they were
- 32:52Speaker 1: solidly held by a significant portion of Americans during the
- 32:56Speaker 1: nineteen forties, including earlier in in the century by President
- 33:01Speaker 1: Wilson and potentially Teddy Roosevelt and others. I mean, eugenics
- 33:07Speaker 1: was a huge part of early twentieth century America. Anyway,
- 33:15Speaker 1: the Ninth thirty Court in February nineteen forty three heard arguments,
- 33:20Speaker 1: and on the very same day that they heard the arguments,
- 33:25Speaker 1: on the same day they heard three other arguments, all
- 33:29Speaker 1: civil rights of Japanese American citizens, all about the constitutionality
- 33:34Speaker 1: of internment right the Japanese internment. On all the other
- 33:39Speaker 1: three arguments they ruled for the government. They ruled that
- 33:43Speaker 1: the internment was constitutional. But on this case, on this case,
- 33:51Speaker 1: they basically as soon as the lawyer for for the
- 33:58Speaker 1: you know, as soon as the lawyer for Native Sons
- 34:06Speaker 1: finished his argument, they huddled whispered among each other and
- 34:11Speaker 1: came back and said, we don't even have to hear
- 34:13Speaker 1: the other side. This is clearly unconstitutional. I mean, what
- 34:17Speaker 1: you're arguing violates the Constitution. You know, we uphold his citizenship,
- 34:23Speaker 1: and they rejected the lawsuit. The spream Court then refused
- 34:27Speaker 1: to even hear the case. So again this was established law.
- 34:33Speaker 1: This is today established law. This is established law by
- 34:37Speaker 1: court on at least those two occurrences. It's in legislation.
- 34:43Speaker 1: It's again the fourteenth Amendment. Any kind of decent reading
- 34:47Speaker 1: of the fourteen Amendments suggest that this is that, this
- 34:51Speaker 1: is it. There really isn't much, you know, isn't much
- 34:55Speaker 1: to talk about. Again, this is a big deal to
- 34:58Speaker 1: the Trumpet administration. Was there. The Court went back and forth,
- 35:04Speaker 1: there was a lot of discussion. It's hard to tell
- 35:09Speaker 1: exactly how everybody will will vote. Alito supposedly was the
- 35:13Speaker 1: most active of all the of all the justices, and
- 35:18Speaker 1: he seemed at times to be sympathetic to the Trump administration,
- 35:23Speaker 1: but at times unsympathetic. So it's hard to tell exactly
- 35:26Speaker 1: where he will go. I think it seemed like the
- 35:29Speaker 1: consensus was that illegals, for example, are still obliged to
- 35:33Speaker 1: follow US law and therefore under the you know, jurisdiction
- 35:37Speaker 1: of the United States, and therefore their children are US citizens.
- 35:42Speaker 1: Amy Barrett brought up and tried to dig into the
- 35:49Speaker 1: nuances of the idea of the law of the soil
- 35:52Speaker 1: versus for example, other countries they have the law of
- 35:55Speaker 1: the blood right, which reminds me of somebody in the
- 35:58Speaker 1: chat very early on, right before before we went on,
- 36:01Speaker 1: because you know, the winning argument everybody for people who
- 36:04Speaker 1: oppose my position is always but Israel. So he says,
- 36:08Speaker 1: does Israel have birthright citizenship for non Jews? I don't know,
- 36:15Speaker 1: But the reality is that Arabs, Muslims and Christians who
- 36:21Speaker 1: who are Israel Israelis and whose children are born in Israel,
- 36:25Speaker 1: or all Israeli citizens, but is probably does not have
- 36:28Speaker 1: birthright citizens is. It probably has what's called the law
- 36:34Speaker 1: of the blood. And you know, he can make a
- 36:36Speaker 1: big deal out of that and say that's wrong, and
- 36:39Speaker 1: you know, I might be sympathetic to that argument, but
- 36:43Speaker 1: why are you bringing of Israel? I mean Germany has
- 36:46Speaker 1: love of the blood, Japan has love of the blood. Many, many,
- 36:49Speaker 1: many countries around the world are not love of the soil. Basically,
- 36:54Speaker 1: countries coming out of the British common law tradition are
- 36:58Speaker 1: basically birthright countries, and countries that come out of a
- 37:01Speaker 1: different tradition, a different that they have this law of
- 37:05Speaker 1: the blood. And it depends on where your parents and
- 37:07Speaker 1: grandparents and you know, ancestry comes from. That is what
- 37:11Speaker 1: you know. That is what determines it. Birthright tourism, which
- 37:17Speaker 1: is what Trump was talking about in his tweet, barely
- 37:20Speaker 1: came up because it's a it's such a minor issue,
- 37:23Speaker 1: it's so small. Probably the best line of the day
- 37:27Speaker 1: from what I'm seeing, was from Roberts, who wasn't very
- 37:31Speaker 1: active in the questioning today. He was kind of a
- 37:35Speaker 1: quiet today. But at some point the Solicitor General was
- 37:40Speaker 1: making an argument about you know, today you can get
- 37:43Speaker 1: on a plane. The technology has changed. People can come
- 37:47Speaker 1: and they can have a baby here and then it
- 37:48Speaker 1: can fly back home. You know, the founders didn't contemplate this,
- 37:52Speaker 1: and he basically said, you know, it's a new world.
- 37:55Speaker 1: And Judge Roberts came back with this one liner, which
- 37:59Speaker 1: will probably be the one liner of the session, saying,
- 38:05Speaker 1: it's a new world, it's the same constitution, which is
- 38:11Speaker 1: a good line. It's a good line. It's good for
- 38:13Speaker 1: justice Roberts for coming up with that. So yep said,
- 38:20Speaker 1: that's what at stake at steak is, of course, the
- 38:24Speaker 1: many many children that are born in this country by
- 38:29Speaker 1: temporary visitors, including temporary workers, who maybe become citizens afterwards.
- 38:35Speaker 1: Like myself, my kids were born here under temporary visas,
- 38:40Speaker 1: so they would not count if Trump's executive order was done.
- 38:45Speaker 1: Note that the government is not asking for this to
- 38:47Speaker 1: be retroactive. They realize that that would probably undo the
- 38:51Speaker 1: citizenship of tens of millions, if not more, of Americans.
- 38:57Speaker 1: You know, many, many people were born here before for
- 39:00Speaker 1: their parents or one of their parents became permanent residents, many, many,
- 39:04Speaker 1: many going back many generations. But it really looks like
- 39:10Speaker 1: the quote will rule against Trump. You know. The big
- 39:14Speaker 1: question now is by what margin. Some speculate that it's
- 39:17Speaker 1: going to be nine to zero, that this is such
- 39:20Speaker 1: a clear cutcase that even Judge Thomas, who tends to
- 39:25Speaker 1: almost always defend the Trump administration, will vote against them
- 39:30Speaker 1: in this case. We will see if that actually happens.
- 39:37Speaker 1: Others are speculator we seven to two, with Thomas and
- 39:40Speaker 1: Elito voting against it, maybe nine to one, maybe five
- 39:45Speaker 1: to four on the constitutional issue and seven to two
- 39:49Speaker 1: on the you know, on the specific issue related to
- 39:54Speaker 1: this particular case from a legislative perspective. Or they could
- 39:59Speaker 1: rule that it's it's illegitimate as an executive order as
- 40:03Speaker 1: a seven to two, but unconstitutional just five to four.
- 40:07Speaker 1: So there's a lot of optionality in terms of how
- 40:09Speaker 1: this is broken up. The best outcome is so that
- 40:13Speaker 1: to bury it forever, both as a legislative issue and
- 40:18Speaker 1: as an executive order issue, is for the Court to
- 40:21Speaker 1: rule seven two eight to one nine zero ideally that
- 40:26Speaker 1: this is a constitutional issue. It doesn't matter what Congress does,
- 40:29Speaker 1: It doesn't no matter what the President does. The fourteenth
- 40:31Speaker 1: Amendment just protects this expanded view of both right citizenships.
- 40:35Speaker 1: So that is what I'm hoping for. That is what
- 40:40Speaker 1: I think. There's a good chance that happens. But it's
- 40:45Speaker 1: going to be interesting. It's going to be interesting, you know, again,
- 40:49Speaker 1: particularly given Thomas and Alito and how they might how
- 40:54Speaker 1: they might they might go. It does highlight how in
- 40:59Speaker 1: many of us facts the United States is, I mean,
- 41:02Speaker 1: the history highlights in many respects how the United States
- 41:06Speaker 1: is kind of going back. So many people in the
- 41:10Speaker 1: United States are kind of going back to ideas and
- 41:14Speaker 1: orientations and language we really haven't heard probably since the
- 41:20Speaker 1: nineteen forties. I mean, the world changed after after the
- 41:24Speaker 1: Holocaust and after the German race, race laws and everything
- 41:29Speaker 1: that happened. It changed quite a bit after that in
- 41:33Speaker 1: terms of attitudes towards racism and anti semitism, and then
- 41:37Speaker 1: the Civil Rights era even more dramatically changed the attitude
- 41:42Speaker 1: towards racism and became a very anti racist mentality. But
- 41:47Speaker 1: if you go back to the nineteen tens and nineteen twenties,
- 41:52Speaker 1: you know, people were very racist, and I'm talking about
- 41:55Speaker 1: intellectuals were very racist. And again, the eugenics movement was
- 41:59Speaker 1: very big, very powerful, very significant. There was a lot
- 42:03Speaker 1: of pushback against it, so it wasn't a dominant movement
- 42:05Speaker 1: in the United States, but it was substantial. It had
- 42:08Speaker 1: big money behind it, a lot of the big industrialists
- 42:12Speaker 1: of the nineteenth centxsu early twentieth century with supporters of it,
- 42:16Speaker 1: and eugenics was big. And that kind of language, that
- 42:21Speaker 1: kind of racist language, the language of dividing people based
- 42:24Speaker 1: on race and passing laws based on race, that disappeared
- 42:30Speaker 1: and really for the most part, disappeared during the Civil
- 42:35Speaker 1: Rights era until you know, with exception of affirmative action,
- 42:39Speaker 1: and then affirmative action is like blossomed into ultimately DEI
- 42:43Speaker 1: and everything else that has brought racial language back into
- 42:46Speaker 1: our vocabulary, which is now being used by the new
- 42:51Speaker 1: eugenics types where they call them raceed realists. I think
- 42:55Speaker 1: they call themselves to reinvigorate not quite a eugenics movement,
- 43:01Speaker 1: but a racist movement, both on the right and for
- 43:06Speaker 1: different reasons, on the left. So this is a big case,
- 43:11Speaker 1: by the way, that the theory behind this push by
- 43:16Speaker 1: Trump to to challenge of birthright citizenship is the legal
- 43:36Speaker 1: theorist behind is John Eastman. John Eastman, if you might remember,
- 43:40Speaker 1: was the guy behind some crazy theories for why Trump
- 43:47Speaker 1: actually won the twenty twenty election. He was advising Trump
- 43:50Speaker 1: on trying to overturn that election. John Eastman was also
- 43:55Speaker 1: I met John Eastman a couple of times. He was
- 43:57Speaker 1: the dean of the law school at a Chapping University.
- 44:01Speaker 1: Uh a conservative anyway, But the whole idea of trying
- 44:05Speaker 1: to reverse birthright citizenship is his. So one more, you know,
- 44:12Speaker 1: one more negative to the memory of Eastman. All right,
- 44:24Speaker 1: all right, let's let's now. I think I think I
- 44:29Speaker 1: think Robert said something like in the chat he said
- 44:33Speaker 1: that that war fatigue is real. Yeah, I agree, it
- 44:38Speaker 1: is real. It's even more real for those who are
- 44:45Speaker 1: actually in the war fighting the words it's it's I
- 44:51Speaker 1: think it's I think what what we have is war
- 44:55Speaker 1: war news fatigue rather than war fatigue war news fatigue.
- 45:00Speaker 1: All right, So, as we know, the war continues and
- 45:03Speaker 1: the war of words continues between Trump and Iran. Trump
- 45:09Speaker 1: keeps attributing stuff to the Iranian government, which the Arabian
- 45:12Speaker 1: government to the extent there is a government functioning government
- 45:14Speaker 1: in Iran, the Iranian government to they keep saying, no,
- 45:23Speaker 1: that never happened. This is all just performative. So, you know,
- 45:28Speaker 1: Trump said that Iran is open for cease fire and
- 45:33Speaker 1: begging for cease fire, and it is asked the United
- 45:37Speaker 1: States for ceasefire, and the Iranians have said that's just
- 45:41Speaker 1: not true. Trump in this case said specifically that the
- 45:45Speaker 1: Iranian president said this. The Anian president shot back, No,
- 45:49Speaker 1: I didn't say that Trump is making this stuff up.
- 45:53Speaker 1: I mean, I think the truth is probably somewhere in between.
- 45:56Speaker 1: There's no question there are negotiations going on in the
- 45:59Speaker 1: background through intermediaries, particularly the Pakistanis. Pakistan is serving as
- 46:04Speaker 1: an intermediary between the Iranians in the United States. The
- 46:08Speaker 1: problem with the iran Is is that it's not clear
- 46:13Speaker 1: who is the decision making in Iran or and it's
- 46:16Speaker 1: clear that it's not the president of Iran and it's
- 46:20Speaker 1: probably not to Speaker of the House of Iran, the
- 46:22Speaker 1: two people who you know, Trump has claimed to be
- 46:25Speaker 1: negotiating with. I mean, the decision maker is the head
- 46:29Speaker 1: of the IRGC. I'm pretty sure that it's not even
- 46:33Speaker 1: the Supreme Leader to the extent that he's conscious. It's
- 46:37Speaker 1: the guy who running the IRGC. It's one of the
- 46:39Speaker 1: reasons it would be great if Israel kind of sped
- 46:42Speaker 1: up and actually assassinated him. It's about time. This is
- 46:46Speaker 1: the guy who replaced the guy that Israel killed on
- 46:49Speaker 1: day one of the war. I think he's probably running things.
- 46:53Speaker 1: I'm sure he's in dispute. I think the president, who
- 46:57Speaker 1: is indeed somewhat moderate relative to Iranian president, would like
- 47:02Speaker 1: to cease fire because he is worried about the consequence
- 47:06Speaker 1: of what happens to the Iran afterwards, given how much
- 47:09Speaker 1: destruction has been wrought on them. The IERGC wants to
- 47:13Speaker 1: hold on to power whatever it takes, and it realizes
- 47:16Speaker 1: that it has this amazing leverage with the Straits of Homos,
- 47:20Speaker 1: and it needs a victory. It needs something it can
- 47:23Speaker 1: say that it won the war, and it needs control
- 47:27Speaker 1: of those straits, and it needs that to be part
- 47:29Speaker 1: of whatever agreement they come up with with the United States,
- 47:33Speaker 1: if they come to any agreement with the United States anyway.
- 47:37Speaker 1: This is so, this is the consequence of this back
- 47:42Speaker 1: and forth and nobody knowing exactly what's what is a
- 47:45Speaker 1: consequence of the fact that there is no leadership in Iran,
- 47:50Speaker 1: no clear line of leadership. It's not clear who anybody
- 47:54Speaker 1: should negotiate with. Now. The Iranians are claiming, of course
- 47:57Speaker 1: that Harmony the Sun is the supreme leader, and he
- 48:01Speaker 1: is in full health, and he is alive and well,
- 48:05Speaker 1: and he's now made a public appearance only because of
- 48:08Speaker 1: because of wartime conditions. Both Israeli and American intelligence are
- 48:14Speaker 1: skeptical about that. They think he's been injured and severely
- 48:16Speaker 1: injured and that's why he's not making any appearances. But
- 48:21Speaker 1: nobody really, I mean, somebody knows, but we don't really know.
- 48:26Speaker 1: In the meantime, the Ranians continue to send missiles into
- 48:32Speaker 1: the Gulf countries and Israel they're primary focused. By the way,
- 48:36Speaker 1: is Yue Yue has received more ballistic missile attacks and
- 48:43Speaker 1: more drone attacks than Israel has or Saudi Arabia are
- 48:48Speaker 1: quite Kata or anybody else. Yui is the number one target,
- 48:52Speaker 1: which is interesting, you know, we will you know, so
- 49:02Speaker 1: the missiles are still flying. Yesterday very few missiles were
- 49:07Speaker 1: targeted at Israel, indeed only three I think today there've
- 49:12Speaker 1: been a bunch basically today this evening, well it's evening
- 49:17Speaker 1: now in Israel is passover, so today is the said,
- 49:22Speaker 1: they're the big meal that Israeli have, and the Iranians
- 49:26Speaker 1: clearly timed the missile barrage to hit during this time,
- 49:32Speaker 1: during the meal, to disrupt Disraeli lives as much as possible.
- 49:36Speaker 1: The initial barrage this evening was ten missiles, which is
- 49:39Speaker 1: the largest they have shot at once at one time.
- 49:42Speaker 1: It's pretty pathetic since like day two of the war,
- 49:47Speaker 1: all the ten were shut down except for one, which
- 49:49Speaker 1: was a cluster bomb. And the clusters you know, did
- 49:53Speaker 1: did land, but they didn't. They did damage, but from
- 49:56Speaker 1: what I understand, nobody no significant casual te uh. And
- 50:01Speaker 1: then following that, they did some single and double shots
- 50:05Speaker 1: into Israel again to force Israelis to leave the dining
- 50:11Speaker 1: room table and to go and huddle in a safe room.
- 50:16Speaker 1: You know, most of what most of what the most
- 50:25Speaker 1: of what the Uranians are doing right now vis israel
- 50:28Speaker 1: Is to harass the Israelis. It's it's not causing significant
- 50:32Speaker 1: damage at all. All right, what else? What else is
- 50:44Speaker 1: going on? I suppose that RAN's president is going to
- 50:48Speaker 1: put out a letter to the American people. We should
- 50:52Speaker 1: expect it any hour now. Trump tonight, I think nine
- 50:56Speaker 1: pm E S Coast time will also be addressing the
- 50:59Speaker 1: American people about the state of the war. It'll be
- 51:01Speaker 1: interesting to see what he says. Every day. He says
- 51:04Speaker 1: contradictory things. One day, we're going to destroy you. On
- 51:07Speaker 1: the next day, we're going to pull out. One day,
- 51:09Speaker 1: we're opening up the streets of homoes. The next day,
- 51:11Speaker 1: we don't care about the streets of homos. So it's
- 51:13Speaker 1: impossible to know from the outside exactly what he wants
- 51:17Speaker 1: or what he's thinking. In the meantime, the streets of homos,
- 51:22Speaker 1: for the most part, are you know, a pretty much
- 51:27Speaker 1: pretty much you know closed ue. Even as as much
- 51:33Speaker 1: as an hour ago, we're still intercepting projectiles. There were
- 51:37Speaker 1: scents from you targeting them. Yeah, we'll talk about that
- 51:44Speaker 1: in a minute. Let's see. Israel continues to blow up
- 51:49Speaker 1: steel facilities, steel industry in Iran. They've completely flattened the
- 51:55Speaker 1: largest steel complex in i Wan, really in the Middle East,
- 51:59Speaker 1: I think, and you know it's supposedly thirty five thousand
- 52:04Speaker 1: people's employment is tied to this steel complex. It's now
- 52:09Speaker 1: basically completely in ruins. Let's see. Yeah, I mean, as
- 52:23Speaker 1: I said, Iran's the amount of missiles that it's sending
- 52:28Speaker 1: out is declined again. Again today is a little bit
- 52:32Speaker 1: of a spike with Israel, but overall the numbers have declined.
- 52:38Speaker 1: They're starting to feel it. I mean, we're seeing more
- 52:40Speaker 1: and more kind of big explosions of missile depots in Iran.
- 52:47Speaker 1: So at some point they're going to run out of
- 52:49Speaker 1: missiles and run out of places from which to launch them.
- 52:57Speaker 1: While Trump keeps saying this was over in two three weeks,
- 53:01Speaker 1: and you know, we don't care about the streets and
- 53:04Speaker 1: foemos and bringing everybody back. Troops keep arriving in the
- 53:10Speaker 1: Middle East. We've got one and more, you know, airborne
- 53:15Speaker 1: airborne troops. We've also got now a significant number of
- 53:19Speaker 1: a ten woodhog ground you know, these ground attack aircraft.
- 53:25Speaker 1: These aircraft that would be used if there was a
- 53:28Speaker 1: ground assault to clear the area, to go after enemy
- 53:32Speaker 1: tanks and enemy enemy troops. These are great to just
- 53:36Speaker 1: eviscerate the enemy from the air with. You know, it
- 53:41Speaker 1: has this incredible gun in the front, and it has missiles,
- 53:46Speaker 1: and it's an incredibly powerful weapon system that flies low
- 53:53Speaker 1: and just dominates, dominates the ground underneath it. And supposedly
- 53:58Speaker 1: eighteen additional aircraft being sent to them. Ad least they're
- 54:01Speaker 1: already twelve there. They're the ones doing some of the
- 54:04Speaker 1: clearing in the Homo Straits. Now we're adding eighteen. It's
- 54:08Speaker 1: hard to believe that we're sending all those aircraft there
- 54:10Speaker 1: if there's no plan for some kind of ground ecosion.
- 54:13Speaker 1: Now there are two possibilities in terms of ground ecosions.
- 54:18Speaker 1: One is the islands in the States of Homoes, or
- 54:22Speaker 1: three possibilities. I guess. One is the islands on the
- 54:24Speaker 1: Straits of Homoes to take strategic control of the strait itself.
- 54:29Speaker 1: The other is to trade it to take Krug Island,
- 54:32Speaker 1: which is which means to take control of oil exports
- 54:35Speaker 1: out of Iran. And the third is a ground operation
- 54:41Speaker 1: to capture the uranium. You know that kind of that
- 54:48Speaker 1: kind of mission is going to involve airlifting, excavation equipment,
- 54:52Speaker 1: building a runway inside Iran. For the cargo planes, it
- 54:56Speaker 1: means hundreds of troops, and it means a lot of aten,
- 55:00Speaker 1: a lot of intents protecting those troops, flying missions around
- 55:05Speaker 1: the area where these troops are huddled. And of course
- 55:09Speaker 1: the big threat there is drones, so they need they
- 55:12Speaker 1: need some kind of weapons system they can deal with drones. Generally,
- 55:16Speaker 1: any kind of ground ecosion is going to have to
- 55:18Speaker 1: deal with the Iranian drone threat. That is the biggest threat.
- 55:21Speaker 1: The biggest thing that Iran can do to the US
- 55:25Speaker 1: is a threat with with drone warfare. All right, um,
- 55:34Speaker 1: let's see what else do we want to say. Yeah,
- 55:38Speaker 1: as I said that, the term just covered that. So
- 55:47Speaker 1: you know, Trump is saying one thing, but the accumulation
- 55:51Speaker 1: of troops on the ground says another. There's also another
- 55:54Speaker 1: aircraft carrier group they just left I guess Virginia on
- 55:58Speaker 1: its way to the Middle East. That will take three
- 56:00Speaker 1: weeks to get there, so it's going there. Maybe it'll
- 56:06Speaker 1: be there once the ceasefire is established and troops are
- 56:11Speaker 1: coming home. Maybe it's just to relieve the existing carrier group,
- 56:14Speaker 1: or maybe it's with the anticipation that the war will
- 56:17Speaker 1: still be continuing in three weeks. But if Trump is
- 56:22Speaker 1: right that the war would not be more than three
- 56:25Speaker 1: weeks from now, then whatever ground operation they're expecting, you'd
- 56:30Speaker 1: expect that happen in the next few days or within
- 56:33Speaker 1: a week, because otherwise it's not gonna be over in
- 56:37Speaker 1: three weeks. Even if it starts now, it's probably not
- 56:40Speaker 1: gonna be over in three weeks. So yeah, as we said,
- 56:45Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting to see how this develops.
- 56:48Speaker 1: The UIE is the one Gulf state that is taking
- 56:53Speaker 1: a really aggressive stance against Iran. Now again they're talking
- 56:57Speaker 1: more than doing. There's talk about freezing Uranian assets, about
- 57:01Speaker 1: five hundred and thirty billion dollars of Uranian assets in Iran.
- 57:06Speaker 1: It is true that the Iranians have closed different clubs
- 57:12Speaker 1: and organizations affiliate with Uranians in UEE. They've also prohibited
- 57:18Speaker 1: travel of Iranians into ue so not allowing you Iranians in.
- 57:27Speaker 1: So they're taking some steps like that. They've also now
- 57:31Speaker 1: talked about this a big Wall Seat Journal article today
- 57:34Speaker 1: this morning. This morning, this is the headline Yue wants
- 57:37Speaker 1: to force homos open and is willing to join the fight.
- 57:43Speaker 1: The Gulf state begins efforts to persuade US and others
- 57:45Speaker 1: to open waterway by any means necessary. I mean, they're
- 57:49Speaker 1: absolutely right. The gulf, the state's homemos, must be opened
- 57:53Speaker 1: by any means necessary. The US will have de leaded,
- 57:58Speaker 1: but it could in a coalition of countries, and the
- 58:04Speaker 1: UE is willing to participate. UE has assets, It has
- 58:08Speaker 1: mind sweepers, it has a navy, It has a port
- 58:12Speaker 1: right there near the Homo Straits, so it could serve
- 58:14Speaker 1: an important function. It claims it is willing to fight.
- 58:19Speaker 1: It also claims it would rather there be a peaceful resolution. Publicly,
- 58:23Speaker 1: they keep saying that, and the Saudis are the same way.
- 58:26Speaker 1: They tell the Americans, keep going, keep going, we need
- 58:30Speaker 1: to defeat the Iranians, and they tell their own people, no,
- 58:33Speaker 1: we wanna a resolution. It is pretty stunning, really if
- 58:39Speaker 1: you think about it, that Saudi Arabia and UE, which
- 58:42Speaker 1: have taken real hits from you on I mean, UE
- 58:44Speaker 1: has had more bombs launched at it than Israel has.
- 58:49Speaker 1: There's still there's still not in the war. There's still
- 58:52Speaker 1: not literally fighting, which is a sign of weakness that
- 58:58Speaker 1: they might pay for in decades to come right. They've
- 59:03Speaker 1: got these advanced militaries. They've spent hundreds of billions of dollars,
- 59:08Speaker 1: certainly in the case of Saudi Arabia on military equipment,
- 59:13Speaker 1: and yet they're afraid to deploy it, even when they've
- 59:16Speaker 1: got even fighting side by side with the Americans and
- 59:19Speaker 1: the Israelis. And the reason is, and this is why,
- 59:26Speaker 1: you know, you can be hopeful for the Middle East,
- 59:28Speaker 1: but you always have to be skeptical. This is because
- 59:32Speaker 1: they're afraid of their own population. The leaders of these
- 59:36Speaker 1: countries might believe that working with Israel makes sense and
- 59:39Speaker 1: signing the Abam Accords is a good idea, and maybe
- 59:41Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia will after this war, but the people are
- 59:44Speaker 1: not convinced. The people are still you know, anti Semitic,
- 59:48Speaker 1: anti Israeli, and they don't want Saudi pilots and Israeli
- 59:53Speaker 1: pilots flying side by side fighting the same enemy. Otherwise,
- 59:57Speaker 1: why isn't Saudi Araia participating? Why isn't UEE. They've got
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: air forces, they've got fifteen's, the Saudis, fifteens, sixteens. You know,
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: with some of the latest technology, they could be in
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: this world, they could be helping they're now ue seems
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: to be more aggressive than the Saudias. It also is
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: the one that signed the ab M courts. It seems
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: to be more pushing and I think ultimately, look, ultimately,
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: if Trump does the right thing, pushes forward with an
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: attempt to open the Straits of Homos, if that happens,
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: I think to a large extent, that'll be because of
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: the pressure he's getting from these Gulf States, from these
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: Golf States. The Golf States can't do it alone, but
- 1:00:52Speaker 1: with the United States, just more more planes, more bombs,
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: more targets to be taken out, more intelligence resources. You know, Yeah,
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: more is better. More is actually better. I think about
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: the fact that Israel flies has to fly hundreds of
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: planes all the way from Israel all the way to Iran,
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: which is incredibly far. Think about if they could land
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: in Saudi Arabia or in the UE. Think about whether
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: if they didn't have to fly that many planes, they
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: could cut in half and let the UAE or the
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: Saudis fly. And I think for the UAE in the Saudis,
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: in terms of future deterrence to any enemies they might face,
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: I think for them it's crucial to participate. It's crucial
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: for them to get involved and to show that they
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: have the muscle if they just fold here, what does
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: that tell you if your potential enemy of saudis about
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: what you can or cannot do in the.
- 1:01:52Speaker 2: Future, all right, I mean the relationship, the background of
- 1:02:00Speaker 2: this war is that the relationship between.
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: The United States and Europe is the two reading fast.
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: Trump is very unhappy with the fact that the Bits,
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: the Fence, the Spanish, the Italians, the Polls all resisting
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: helping the United States, both in terms of US aircraft
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: flying over landing, using bases. I mean, ultimately, the Bits
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: agreed to have US planes fly out of the UK
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: to bomb in Iran, and we're seeing an intensification of
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: the use of B fifty two's the bomb stuff in Iran,
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: which is pretty amazing. Again, the B fifty two is
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: an easy target for defense systems, and yet the Americans
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: are now feeling very very very comfortable flying them all
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: over Iran and using the big bombs that are BE
- 1:02:55Speaker 1: fifty two can carry and the many bombs that it
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: can carry as compared to a fighter jet. Anyway, the
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: Bits agree to that, but they're not agreeing to other things,
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: and they keep saying it's not a war over and
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: over and over again. Europe generally has resisted helping the
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: United States open the States of Homos, although there are
- 1:03:15Speaker 1: days where they say they will and then later they
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: say they won't. So it's really hard to tell what
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: is going on in the background and whether the conversation
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: is about. But as obvious and clear is the extent
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: to which Trump is unhappy. I mean, he's very unhappy
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: with Europe that they're not helping, that they're not more
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: aggressively and in a more forthcoming way helping the United States.
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: I mean even again, American allies, like in Maloney of Italy,
- 1:03:46Speaker 1: you know, stop their planes from stopping from landing in
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: an Italian airport on the way to the Middle East.
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: I mean, there are lots of these cases which are
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: really upsetting Trump. Trump is now raising the opportunity, raising
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: the possibility an opportunity of leaving NATO, of exiting NATO
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: and leaving to the Europeans, something that I think I'm
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: generally not that against if it's done properly and over time.
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: I did somebody tweeted me, somebody said to me, let
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: me just find this. What did he say? He said?
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: People advocating for the dismountable of NATO. Have no idea
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: of the chain of chaos that will un least in
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: the world. Be careful what you wish for you on
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: it might come true. This is from This is a
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: guy named David Chapman says, we're drawing from NATO. We
- 1:04:37Speaker 1: draw from NATO and to drawl of all US troops
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: from US bases in Europe and see how many days
- 1:04:42Speaker 1: it takes Russia to conquer Europe. I think that's a fantasy,
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: that's completely bizarre and off. The Europeans are far, far,
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: far more powerful than Russia is uh, you know, with
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: exception of nuclear bombs, assuming we're not using nuclear bombs,
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: Europe would you know, would rip the Russians easily. Look
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: what Ukraine is doing and Ukraine started with nothing. Uh,
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: you know, Poland by itself would beat Russia. So I
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: don't think that the US leaving NATO A would cause
- 1:05:18Speaker 1: the collapse of NATO. NATO could continue without the United
- 1:05:21Speaker 1: States and would do fine without the United States, maybe
- 1:05:24Speaker 1: even better. And you know the reality is that again
- 1:05:32Speaker 1: Europe is much richer, much stronger, much more powerful, has
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: better weapons than the Russians do. Now, I assume and
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: I would advocate for even if the United States leaves NATO,
- 1:05:44Speaker 1: they continue to sell weapons to NATO. But NATO can
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: take on the Russians easily. Again, Russia can't take Ukraine,
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: and it certainly couldn't take Poland, and I don't think
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: it could take Finland. So Trump is threatening, you know,
- 1:06:05Speaker 1: I think after look, the reality is this. Trump has
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: been belligerent towards the Europeans from day one, the way
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: he's treated Zolynsky, the way he's treated European leaders, the
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: way people from hid him the station have lectured the Europeans.
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: He's not friendly towards Europe and not friendly towards NATO
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: in particular, you know, particularly in his treatment of Ukraine
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: and Zolynsky that has come through. And then worse than
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: anything was that Trump basically threatened war against the NATO state.
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: He threatened to take Greenland by force, and that would
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: have been a war between Denmark and the United States.
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: Denmark is a NATO member. So it's not surprising Europe
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: is not jumping when Trump asked for help, given how
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: obnoxious and offensive he has been towards Europe. Now Trump
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: is saying, if you don't start helping US, then I
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: will stop weapons for Ukraine. Like right now, the United
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: States is selling weapons to the Europeans that then transfer
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: it to Ukraine. He says, you will stop that. There's
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: four and a half billion worth of weapons systems supposedly
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: committed to Ukraine right now, and he would stop the
- 1:07:33Speaker 1: delivery right now unless Europe takes part in a military
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: mission to reopen the home most streets. Now I'm glad
- 1:07:42Speaker 1: he's talking about almost straight but look, you need a
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: coalition to do it. You don't have to have it America.
- 1:07:47Speaker 1: You could probably do it alone, but it's much better
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: if it was done with a coalition, much better if
- 1:07:53Speaker 1: it was done in coalition. And again, the US does
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: not have the best mind clearing equipment in the world
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: out there. It needs a coalition. The Europeans have said
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: they will join, but it seems like they keep back
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: trucking from it. But in order to get them to join,
- 1:08:13Speaker 1: I'm not sure threatening them with no amster Ukraine is
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: the answer. And that just reminds them of the fact
- 1:08:20Speaker 1: that Trump is renegged and all the other stuff that
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: he's promised visa the Ukraine. So and of course it
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: reminds them of Greenland. It reminds them of everything else
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: that is that has to do with Trump and the
- 1:08:40Speaker 1: way Trumps behaves behaves anyway. Trump is raising the NATO withdrawal.
- 1:08:46Speaker 1: The president of Finland, who seems to be one of
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: the guys who can mediate between Trump and the rest
- 1:08:52Speaker 1: of Europe, has said that you know, there's there's he's
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: having constructive discussions and exchange of ideas with Trump about
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: NATO and all about Iran and Ukraine, and you know,
- 1:09:05Speaker 1: so he's trying to soften everything. He's trying to trying
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: to He's got some some reason he has developed a
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: bond with Trump and they exchange texts and phone calls. Uh.
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: So he might be the one who is, uh is
- 1:09:20Speaker 1: trying to bridge the gaps between the Europeans and and
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: and the United States. We we will, we will see
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: what happens, all right. Just a couple of other stories.
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: So at first, a lot of stories about drones. You
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: hear it all the time. Drones are, you know, a
- 1:09:41Speaker 1: major weapon out there, and the Ukraine war has shown
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: that and I think we've seen that again with this
- 1:09:47Speaker 1: war in in Iran and a variety of different countries.
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: Companies are rushing to develop anti drone technology as well
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: as drones that going to stand the anti drone technology.
- 1:09:59Speaker 1: So you know, there's basically an arms race going on
- 1:10:02Speaker 1: right now with regard to drones. Ukraine is probably the
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: leading country in the world when it comes to getting
- 1:10:10Speaker 1: shooting down drones. But Israel with its Iron Dome, it's
- 1:10:14Speaker 1: David Sling and it's and of course the integration now
- 1:10:21Speaker 1: into its Iron Dome of the of its laser system,
- 1:10:26Speaker 1: which is an integrated high energy laser system. It's created
- 1:10:31Speaker 1: probably the world's most advanced multi layer air defense network
- 1:10:35Speaker 1: to count the drones, rockets, mortars and of course also
- 1:10:39Speaker 1: long range missiles. Right. So the Iron Beam, which is
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: called a Ton's Beam, named after you know, A Ton,
- 1:10:49Speaker 1: who is the I guess involved in the development of
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: this it. So it's first combat in this war, I
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: suppose it's neutralized several Hebela DROs and rockets from Lebanon. Uh,
- 1:11:03Speaker 1: it's completely integrated into the whole Iron Beam system, and
- 1:11:09Speaker 1: which is UH, which is a you know, a multi
- 1:11:13Speaker 1: layer systems. So iron Beam is part of this fifth
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: layer of as well as a defense systems. The beauty
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: of these uh, you know, of the iron of the
- 1:11:25Speaker 1: layser is the iron dome. Interceptors cost about fifty thousand
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: dollars apiece. The laser shot costs about two two to
- 1:11:34Speaker 1: ten dollars two to ten dollars. Right, the system is
- 1:11:41Speaker 1: both deployed on the Lebanon border and on the guds
- 1:11:45Speaker 1: the guards of Strip, I near the guards of Strip.
- 1:11:47Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean the biggest challenge of it, the
- 1:11:52Speaker 1: biggest constraint it has is bad weather. Uh, you know,
- 1:11:56Speaker 1: heavy rain, thick clouds du can scatter the laser beam
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: and make it less effective. So that's the biggest challenge.
- 1:12:06Speaker 1: But other than that, it's very effective. It's range of
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: seven to ten kilometers. It's designed for low flying threats,
- 1:12:14Speaker 1: and it's really differ you know. It's it's it's ideal
- 1:12:20Speaker 1: for these kind of low flying drones that come about.
- 1:12:23Speaker 1: It's a coin sized, coin sized a laser beam that
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: basically melts the drone or rocket in between two to
- 1:12:30Speaker 1: five seconds. Pretty amazing stuff. In addition, you've got systems
- 1:12:37Speaker 1: developed by Germany which is using something that the Iranian
- 1:12:42Speaker 1: that the Ukrainians developed, which is a gun based a
- 1:12:50Speaker 1: defense system. So this again is a way to fight
- 1:12:54Speaker 1: drones on the cheap, So this is like a high
- 1:12:59Speaker 1: powered automatic gun that can target you can target drones.
- 1:13:07Speaker 1: This is being built by rain Metal, which is a
- 1:13:11Speaker 1: defense contractor in Germany. They expect to have four hundred
- 1:13:14Speaker 1: of these systems by twenty twenty twenty sections. They're built
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: for basically drones and cruise missiles. They use rapid fire
- 1:13:25Speaker 1: auto cannons and targeting systems instead of relying on costly
- 1:13:30Speaker 1: missile interceptors. The Ukrainians have some of these systems already
- 1:13:38Speaker 1: deployed and they're incredibly effective and they've shown that they're
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: effective against cus missiles as well as drones, not just drones.
- 1:13:47Speaker 1: Three countries of designing of building these systems Switzerland, Italy
- 1:13:53Speaker 1: and Germany. And again they're expecting to have significant numbers
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: of these by twenty twenty seven deployed. I guess all
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: over Europe. You know, Germans have voted some, the Netherlands
- 1:14:06Speaker 1: have voted some, Belgium's are considering it, Switzerland has some.
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: You'd expect the Scandinavians to also be uh be doing
- 1:14:18Speaker 1: this as well. In the United States, there is a
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: new system called the Leonidas. The Leonidis is a microwave weapon.
- 1:14:28Speaker 1: The United States is also working on a laser system
- 1:14:30Speaker 1: similar to the ones these Raleys have and they've been
- 1:14:33Speaker 1: shooting that in the desert in New Mexico. But the
- 1:14:37Speaker 1: United States also has this Leonidis, which is a microwave
- 1:14:40Speaker 1: weapon that can take out a single burst of energy
- 1:14:44Speaker 1: can take out fifty drones. Uh, you know, basically, it's
- 1:14:48Speaker 1: just it just completely fies the electronics in the drone
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: and the motors. It fights the motor. The microwave fights
- 1:14:56Speaker 1: the motor, and the drone just just false as in
- 1:15:00Speaker 1: the sky one pulse, everything in range falls from the sky.
- 1:15:04Speaker 1: And this is a great this is a great weapon
- 1:15:07Speaker 1: for dealing with swarms. Right, This is hundreds of drones
- 1:15:13Speaker 1: coming after you and you can't shoot every single one
- 1:15:16Speaker 1: of them. This just wipes them all out all at once.
- 1:15:19Speaker 1: So very effective. So there is a there's an arm race,
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: definitely an arm race around around this issue of drones,
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: and we'll keep monitoring. It's particularly given the threat the
- 1:15:35Speaker 1: China post China can deploy millions of drones in swarms
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: that you can't even imagine, and the US better have
- 1:15:44Speaker 1: weapon systems that can take it them down. Right, all right, Finally,
- 1:15:50Speaker 1: let's talk about recessions. There's a lot of talk about
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: this energy crisis is going to lead to a recession.
- 1:15:57Speaker 1: This is a replay of the nineteen seven ease crisis
- 1:16:01Speaker 1: in the nineteen seventies that actually led to stagflation. You
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: had inflation and stagnation. And John cockran today or yesterday
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: had an excellent editorial in the Wall Street Journal that
- 1:16:13Speaker 1: kind of talked about this, and so I thought I'd
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: read some of what he had to write, which I
- 1:16:19Speaker 1: think is is really really good. He says, in fact,
- 1:16:26Speaker 1: energy prices turned into recession only bad policies compound their effect.
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: Price controls, credit controls, win for profit taxes, export controls,
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: the fifty five miles an hour speed limit, which, for
- 1:16:44Speaker 1: those of you who don't know, was passed during the
- 1:16:46Speaker 1: nineteen seventies in order to deal with the energy crisis,
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: corn Athenol card again, Sweaters, Malay and slowly react Federal
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: Reserve all fed the misery of the nineteen seventies. They
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: need not do so again. And for those of you
- 1:17:05Speaker 1: who don't know why, caught against Sweaters is listed there.
- 1:17:10Speaker 1: During the statflation in the late late nineteen seventies, Jimmy
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: Carter came on TV with a caught against sweater and
- 1:17:17Speaker 1: told Americans to use less heating and just wear a
- 1:17:20Speaker 1: sweater instead. Part of the reason he lost the election
- 1:17:25Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty to Ronald Reagan was that pathetic week
- 1:17:31Speaker 1: off All You Know TV appearance. He continues, this is
- 1:17:40Speaker 1: from Cochrane. The fundamental is also better. The US imported
- 1:17:43Speaker 1: a lot of oil in the nineteen seventies. Now on
- 1:17:47Speaker 1: net we export thanks to facking and the reversal of
- 1:17:49Speaker 1: many energy restrictions. Gasoline is more expensive, but the country
- 1:17:54Speaker 1: owns money that can be spent on other goods, so
- 1:17:59Speaker 1: the fact that it's more expensive it doesn't really matter.
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: From a broad economic perspective, the US uses a lot
- 1:18:06Speaker 1: less oil to generate each dollar of income. We are
- 1:18:09Speaker 1: more of a service economy and less an energy depend
- 1:18:12Speaker 1: on manufacturing economy. Yay for service economy. There are many
- 1:18:17Speaker 1: more suppliers to the international market than in the nineteen seventies.
- 1:18:21Speaker 1: While they can't ramp up production instantly at persistently higher prices,
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: a lot more oil can come out of the ground.
- 1:18:31Speaker 1: I've been saying that from day one. He says, an
- 1:18:34Speaker 1: all price rises like a tariff. As we've seen tariffs
- 1:18:40Speaker 1: while damaging to overall growth, need not cause a recession.
- 1:18:45Speaker 1: The most important questions are when the straits of Homos
- 1:18:49Speaker 1: opens and how the will ends. It's hard to believe
- 1:18:53Speaker 1: that after the lopsided military victory the United States and
- 1:18:58Speaker 1: Israel will levy run with a veto over oil. I agree,
- 1:19:02Speaker 1: I know it's hard to believe, although it's Trump, so
- 1:19:06Speaker 1: anything is possible. The end depends only on whether we
- 1:19:11Speaker 1: have the will to accomplish what is surely in our means. Again,
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: I agree, But defeat has been clutched from the jaws
- 1:19:20Speaker 1: of victory before yep, and Trump would be really good
- 1:19:25Speaker 1: at it. He continues a market. All futures markets offer
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: a glimpse of where things might be headed. West Texas
- 1:19:34Speaker 1: intermediate futures are trading at ninety seven dollars a barrel
- 1:19:38Speaker 1: for late May, but declined to eighty dollars by late
- 1:19:43Speaker 1: October and seventy four by next April. In other words,
- 1:19:47Speaker 1: people are willing to pay seventy four dollars for a
- 1:19:51Speaker 1: bowl of oil or flip this round. People are willing
- 1:19:53Speaker 1: to sell futures. That is, they're willing to sell now
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: oil in April staple year from now at seventy four
- 1:20:02Speaker 1: dollars a bellt so, which means that they're convinced that
- 1:20:05Speaker 1: all prices are coming down from their highs, and then
- 1:20:09Speaker 1: by next year they'll be back to close to normal. Indeed,
- 1:20:12Speaker 1: you know, so seventy four before the war started, it
- 1:20:16Speaker 1: was somewhere in the mid sixties, so it's close to normal,
- 1:20:19Speaker 1: far from the ninety seven. Right now, futures market expect
- 1:20:23Speaker 1: a costly summer and resolution by the fall, he continues.
- 1:20:30Speaker 1: Governments will be tempted by ham handed policy responses. Absolutely,
- 1:20:36Speaker 1: they always are. The European Union is already considering subsidies,
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: price caps or profits, taxes, and now the controls ah
- 1:20:45Speaker 1: Europe tax energy, send carbon emitting industry off to China,
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: ban domestic drilling and fracking, destroy nuclear all in the
- 1:20:54Speaker 1: name of climate. When prices rise, add subsidies and controls. Fortunately,
- 1:21:01Speaker 1: many Europeans now understand how costly their energy policies have been.
- 1:21:07Speaker 1: Maybe they've learned something from them. I'm not sure, but
- 1:21:09Speaker 1: maybe with affordability and gasoline prices in the news, the
- 1:21:18Speaker 1: US will feel similar temptations. The administration already ran up
- 1:21:22Speaker 1: ramped up corn ethanol. That great count example of our
- 1:21:27Speaker 1: country's ability to run sane energy or industrial policy. China
- 1:21:31Speaker 1: as an act at an export ban, which the US
- 1:21:34Speaker 1: tried in the nineteen seventies. It did great damage. Higher
- 1:21:39Speaker 1: gasoline prices does not mean inflation, but governments work because
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: it's a relative price. Other prices will adjust. If you
- 1:21:46Speaker 1: spend more money in Gasolini, you have less money to
- 1:21:49Speaker 1: spend on other things. But then he says, but governments
- 1:21:52Speaker 1: will produce inflation if they hand out money so people
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: can pay higher prices. Price controls mean gas lines, which
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: increase economic damage. The most productive users who can't substitute
- 1:22:05Speaker 1: away away then can't get the energy they need, and
- 1:22:11Speaker 1: suppliers see no incentive to help win. For profit taxes
- 1:22:16Speaker 1: is bad in bad times, dampens the incentive to invest
- 1:22:20Speaker 1: in spake capacity in good times. The first principle of
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: economics is don't transfer income by distorting prices. The first
- 1:22:30Speaker 1: principle the politics is the opposite, don't distort prices by
- 1:22:36Speaker 1: transferring income. I mean, I'm not sure those either. One
- 1:22:39Speaker 1: of those first principles, but the pretty good principles. High
- 1:22:45Speaker 1: energy prices slow the economy, but a slow down turns
- 1:22:48Speaker 1: into recession only when something financial goes wrong. The aftermath
- 1:22:53Speaker 1: of an energy price spike depends a lot on how
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: the central bank responds. Is the federact slowly along with
- 1:23:00Speaker 1: hawful economic policies, stackflation could again break out quickly, and
- 1:23:05Speaker 1: then recession could follow when the Fed reacts to inflation.
- 1:23:11Speaker 1: So uh, Basically, John Cochran is saying, well, let me
- 1:23:17Speaker 1: let me read this fine a paragraph. What you're going
- 1:23:20Speaker 1: to do about raising rising energy prices? What you're come
- 1:23:24Speaker 1: and do about rising energy prices? Nothing or more concretely,
- 1:23:30Speaker 1: get out of the way, ease restrictions and let the
- 1:23:33Speaker 1: markets work its magic of sending energy to the most
- 1:23:36Speaker 1: economically important uses while encouraging others to save, substitute, or
- 1:23:41Speaker 1: provide new energy. Keep inflation under control, and don't induce
- 1:23:46Speaker 1: financial problems. I like John Cochran. He's good. I agree
- 1:23:52Speaker 1: with I agree with basically agree with that, all right,
- 1:23:55Speaker 1: I mean I have a few little quipples, but basically
- 1:23:58Speaker 1: agree with that. By the way, today Austria announced that
- 1:24:02Speaker 1: it's decided to open its only nuclear pop plant. This
- 1:24:06Speaker 1: is a pop plant that was completed in nineteen seventy eight,
- 1:24:10Speaker 1: but was never connected to the grid, never connected to
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: the grid, and now they're looking at finally turning it
- 1:24:20Speaker 1: on and connecting it to the grid. Given energy priceis
- 1:24:24Speaker 1: so Europe is slowly waking up to its the insanity
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: around around its energy policies of the past. All right, now,
- 1:24:34Speaker 1: my friends, is the news for this Wednesday, April. First,
- 1:24:40Speaker 1: thank you for joining me, Thank you for being here.
- 1:24:44Speaker 1: And I guess I need to remind you. Yes, I
- 1:24:46Speaker 1: need to remind you because it's a slow start to
- 1:24:50Speaker 1: April on the super Chut front. So Larry, remind you
- 1:24:53Speaker 1: that this show is made possible through support by you,
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- 1:25:05Speaker 1: talk about the things that you want me to talk about.
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- 1:26:55Speaker 1: Then Institude is hosting a conference in Porto Quoto, Poro.
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- 1:27:47Speaker 1: And finally, Alex Epstein. Alex Epstein is the world authority
- 1:27:51Speaker 1: in all things energy and we're in an energy crisis.
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- 1:28:03Speaker 1: You can also get access to his AI really really
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- 1:28:19Speaker 1: a super chat. We are way behind a goals for today,
- 1:28:24Speaker 1: so please consider chipping in with whatever you can or
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- 1:28:32Speaker 1: Show is worth to you. Chip in. It would be
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- 1:28:39Speaker 1: I think five hundred is the max. That would be great.
- 1:28:42Speaker 1: Let's start off April on a on a good foot,
- 1:28:46Speaker 1: on a good foot. We don't have a lot of questions,
- 1:28:47Speaker 1: so you don't have a lot of time if you
- 1:28:50Speaker 1: want to ask a question or you want to do
- 1:28:53Speaker 1: a sticker. Michael I thought only the left was nihilistic,
- 1:28:58Speaker 1: the anti human, but the right seems to be even
- 1:29:01Speaker 1: more aggressively and effectively nihilistic. Where do the good guys
- 1:29:05Speaker 1: go to win? They go right here, They come on
- 1:29:08Speaker 1: the Youron book show, They listen here, they join our community,
- 1:29:12Speaker 1: they participate in our events and what we do this
- 1:29:16Speaker 1: is the future, right, this is this is Yeah, we
- 1:29:21Speaker 1: have no home, we have no political home. Just accept
- 1:29:24Speaker 1: that we have no political home. And if but but
- 1:29:26Speaker 1: that doesn't mean we don't have a home. And the
- 1:29:28Speaker 1: home is the Ion Book Show, the Admin Institute Objectivism,
- 1:29:33Speaker 1: UH but you know, Youuron book show is probably broader
- 1:29:36Speaker 1: than the objectivism. I don't know everybody who listens to
- 1:29:39Speaker 1: the Won Book Show is an objectivist. But here's the home,
- 1:29:42Speaker 1: here's where we hang out, uh and here's where we fight.
- 1:29:46Speaker 1: We fight the good fight from right here. Uh. Ron says,
- 1:29:52Speaker 1: I'm trying to chip in, but it keeps getting denied
- 1:29:55Speaker 1: and not actually contacting my bank. That's weird. I doing
- 1:29:59Speaker 1: it for FONK. Maybe maybe it's because it's fans. Yeah,
- 1:30:05Speaker 1: I don't know. I appreciate you trying. You know, if
- 1:30:11Speaker 1: you can't do it here, then see if you can
- 1:30:13Speaker 1: do something on PayPal or something on on Patreon. But
- 1:30:17Speaker 1: hopefully hopefully you can figure out how to make it
- 1:30:19Speaker 1: work here. Yeah, in some countries and sometimes internationally it
- 1:30:23Speaker 1: doesn't quite work. We can can we seek asylum on
- 1:30:29Speaker 1: the your on book show. Yes? Absolutely. This is a
- 1:30:32Speaker 1: silent free territory, a silent free territory, So come to Okon.
- 1:30:38Speaker 1: That's another thing you can do, Michael. You'll feel the
- 1:30:42Speaker 1: sanity in the air. Michael says, if you want to
- 1:30:46Speaker 1: hate the world, watch the news. If you want to
- 1:30:48Speaker 1: love the world, travel it. I agree with that, absolutely, absolutely.
- 1:30:53Speaker 1: I mean, traveling in the world just gives you a
- 1:30:56Speaker 1: completely different perspective about it, about the people, about the
- 1:30:59Speaker 1: place is Yeah, and travel is I think a really
- 1:31:06Speaker 1: important way to live and to spend time seeing the world,
- 1:31:12Speaker 1: seeing what's out there. It's so easy today, it's so easy,
- 1:31:16Speaker 1: it's so cheap that everybody should be doing it. Everybody
- 1:31:21Speaker 1: should be doing spend is the strait of home I
- 1:31:30Speaker 1: was really closed by Iran. I work in marine insurance
- 1:31:34Speaker 1: and they are Western tanks passing the strait. But at
- 1:31:38Speaker 1: astronomical insurance premiums, it looks like owners are waiting for
- 1:31:42Speaker 1: premiums to decrease. Yeah, but the only thing that will
- 1:31:45Speaker 1: decrease premiums is safety. Right. The premiums are not high
- 1:31:53Speaker 1: for irrational reasons. The premiums are high because the risk
- 1:31:58Speaker 1: of your ship getting blown up as high. There was
- 1:32:01Speaker 1: another attack today on a ship, and a number of
- 1:32:04Speaker 1: ships are burning in the streets of Homos or in
- 1:32:06Speaker 1: the Gulf more broadly, so it's an irrational insurance premium. Now,
- 1:32:12Speaker 1: if America escorted ships out, then the premium would go
- 1:32:16Speaker 1: down because the risk would go down. If there was
- 1:32:21Speaker 1: a significant military effort to open the streets and allow
- 1:32:26Speaker 1: ships out without the risk of being attacked, premiums would
- 1:32:30Speaker 1: come down. Alternatively, Trump floated this a week into the war,
- 1:32:40Speaker 1: and that is the idea that the United States would
- 1:32:42Speaker 1: ensure these ships. United States has some fund that it
- 1:32:45Speaker 1: could use to ensure them. So the United States could
- 1:32:47Speaker 1: ensure the ships that are much lower rate and provide
- 1:32:50Speaker 1: them with and you know, in entourage to help them leave,
- 1:32:56Speaker 1: so with security. So there were a lot of options
- 1:33:00Speaker 1: and see on what to do. The insurance companies are
- 1:33:03Speaker 1: just behaving rationally. They're saying, what is the risk that
- 1:33:06Speaker 1: my ship gets blown up? Relatively high right now. Insurance
- 1:33:10Speaker 1: premiums therefore should be high. If the risk goes down
- 1:33:15Speaker 1: are lower the premiums. Very few ships are sailing through
- 1:33:20Speaker 1: the streets of Homones, the ones that are cutting deals
- 1:33:23Speaker 1: with the Iranians supposedly paying them at all, but even
- 1:33:28Speaker 1: then a snow guarantee. But that the actual number of ships,
- 1:33:32Speaker 1: the non Iranian ships that are going out of the
- 1:33:37Speaker 1: streets of Hormones is very small. I mean the streets
- 1:33:41Speaker 1: are not closed physically, they're closed because no ship wants
- 1:33:47Speaker 1: to take the risk of traveling through the streets, and
- 1:33:50Speaker 1: no insurance company wants to ensure that risk, So I
- 1:34:00Speaker 1: that is what's going on. I don't think the two.
- 1:34:01Speaker 1: I don't think your point contradicts the idea that the
- 1:34:04Speaker 1: straits are closed. They're closed for all for practical reasons,
- 1:34:10Speaker 1: because you can't ensure them the ships, and because they
- 1:34:13Speaker 1: can assure them because they're being attacked. They weren't attacked,
- 1:34:17Speaker 1: they wouldn't be a problem of insurance, all right. Michael says,
- 1:34:23Speaker 1: what is what is it only rich people who tell
- 1:34:28Speaker 1: us money doesn't matter? Why is it only rich people
- 1:34:30Speaker 1: tell us money doesn't matter? I don't think that's true.
- 1:34:36Speaker 1: I mean most communists socialists tell us money doesn't matter,
- 1:34:39Speaker 1: and many of them are not rich. I mean, rich
- 1:34:42Speaker 1: people do it because they feel guilty. The others do
- 1:34:46Speaker 1: it for ideological reasons. But there are lots of There's
- 1:34:48Speaker 1: plenty of reasons out there why people tell us that
- 1:34:52Speaker 1: money doesn't matter, and it basically comes from an ideology
- 1:34:56Speaker 1: of collectivism, altruism, socialism, and communism. You know they you
- 1:35:02Speaker 1: know star Trek attitude. You don't need money. The future
- 1:35:05Speaker 1: is not a future with money. But that's that comes
- 1:35:09Speaker 1: to socialism. Harrison in the nineteenth nineties. I think racism
- 1:35:16Speaker 1: in America is pretty much dead. I agree with that.
- 1:35:18Speaker 1: If you look at graphs of self described race relations,
- 1:35:22Speaker 1: every single group agreed things were getting better and better
- 1:35:25Speaker 1: up to them. And sometime in the mid two thousands,
- 1:35:29Speaker 1: right around two thousand and eight, those graphs of how
- 1:35:31Speaker 1: people view race relations just dropped like a brick and
- 1:35:35Speaker 1: haven't stopped dropping yet. This was also when BLM was born. Yes,
- 1:35:42Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's all right that the I
- 1:35:46Speaker 1: would just say this. It comes out of the university.
- 1:35:48Speaker 1: It comes out of the postcolonial stuff that's being taught, intersectionality,
- 1:35:53Speaker 1: that identity politics that the left embraces, and so the
- 1:35:57Speaker 1: young people coming out of universities are now race conscious.
- 1:36:01Speaker 1: And it happens in the late two thousand early twenty teens,
- 1:36:05Speaker 1: and it explodes onto the scene during that period, and
- 1:36:10Speaker 1: the attitude of the right in response to that is, oh,
- 1:36:16Speaker 1: race is okay. Now, it's okay to be a racist.
- 1:36:18Speaker 1: We can do that. We can do that. And white racism,
- 1:36:23Speaker 1: you know, pro white, anti black, anti other racist goes
- 1:36:27Speaker 1: way up as a consequence, and anti Semitism goes up.
- 1:36:30Speaker 1: So it's the identity politics that legitimizes race as a
- 1:36:35Speaker 1: category is something to talk about that emboldens racism on
- 1:36:39Speaker 1: the right, but it really it's always been subdued on
- 1:36:45Speaker 1: the right. But you're right, Up until the late nineteen nineties,
- 1:36:49Speaker 1: maybe into the two thousands, it was not an issue.
- 1:36:52Speaker 1: Everybody thoughts racial relations were getting better. I mean Obama
- 1:36:55Speaker 1: was elected. That says something. And enduring Obama's presidency is
- 1:37:03Speaker 1: when it all falls apart, and that's because they're left
- 1:37:09Speaker 1: takes its ideology seriously and takes it all the way. Harrison.
- 1:37:18Speaker 1: I'd also like to commemorate my first dollar fifty made
- 1:37:21Speaker 1: on YouTube to declare that on Friday, you will not
- 1:37:24Speaker 1: be able to listen to sucks Net and the Doom
- 1:37:28Speaker 1: Machine by feed rate command without taping you tapping your
- 1:37:33Speaker 1: feet cool. Then, Harrison says, take my license. All that jive,
- 1:37:42Speaker 1: I can't drive fifty five. Well, it's certainly rhymes. I'm
- 1:37:48Speaker 1: not sure about more than that, but it's certainly rhymes,
- 1:37:53Speaker 1: Stephen says, almost almost through Peacocks eight grade play lectures.
- 1:37:57Speaker 1: Those are some of my favorite lectures of Lene. It's
- 1:38:00Speaker 1: Sorry Fate the rid Lexus of all time. They're really fantastic.
- 1:38:04Speaker 1: Everybody should listen to eight great plays they're really really good.
- 1:38:07Speaker 1: Are there any plays you'd personally add to the list?
- 1:38:09Speaker 1: Recommend all allotted ones are naturalistic. I mean, look, I
- 1:38:18Speaker 1: think that there are lots of Shakespeare plays that you
- 1:38:22Speaker 1: could add to that list. I would definitely recommend, you know,
- 1:38:26Speaker 1: a lot written by Shakespeare. What else? God, Terrence Radigan?
- 1:38:36Speaker 1: Check out the plays by Terrence Radigan. I ran recommended him.
- 1:38:40Speaker 1: They are lighter, they're not quite as dramatic and serious
- 1:38:45Speaker 1: as the plays lened covers, but they're terrific. They're really
- 1:38:50Speaker 1: really good. I've seen a couple, I think, on London stages.
- 1:38:55Speaker 1: I also saw Oh God, what do you call that?
- 1:38:58Speaker 1: The the the play about the witch hunts, the Salem
- 1:39:03Speaker 1: witch Hunts. God, famous play. I saw that performed on
- 1:39:09Speaker 1: stage and I thought it was excellent. I really enjoyed it.
- 1:39:12Speaker 1: I find that when I go and see a play,
- 1:39:14Speaker 1: I don't like reading plays, but I like seeing plays,
- 1:39:18Speaker 1: And when you actually go and experience to play, there's
- 1:39:21Speaker 1: a lot of stuff that's really really good. Yeap, so
- 1:39:29Speaker 1: there are a lot The Crucible is it a Crucible? Yeah,
- 1:39:34Speaker 1: the Crucible. So yeah, I definitely enjoyed The Crucible. I
- 1:39:37Speaker 1: saw it in in London. Years ago, Harrison says, haven't
- 1:39:42Speaker 1: you heard I Can't Drive fifty five by Sammy Haga. No,
- 1:39:46Speaker 1: I haven't. I'm not that good at popular music. Sorry.
- 1:39:56Speaker 1: Scarlet Letter is a book, The Crucible and Letters about
- 1:40:00Speaker 1: something different. But the Crucible is what I was talking about.
- 1:40:03Speaker 1: Who is the who wrote The Crucible? Author Miller? Author Miller. Yeah,
- 1:40:14Speaker 1: it was really an attack on McCarthyism, supposedly when it
- 1:40:17Speaker 1: was written, but it works even today. It's it's very
- 1:40:21Speaker 1: powerful in terms of the in terms of yeah, it's
- 1:40:25Speaker 1: very powerful. Uh. Anyway, thank you guys, thanks to all
- 1:40:30Speaker 1: the super chatters. Really really appreciate it. I will see
- 1:40:33Speaker 1: you guys tomorrow Thursday, April second, for another new show.
- 1:40:39Speaker 1: I think it's same time, same time, same place. Bye. Ready,
- 1:40:44Speaker 1: have a great rest of your Wednesday.