Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/15/26: Trump Says Iran Deal Is Done, Jeremy Scahill On US Capitulation, Israelis Meltdown Over Deal

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6/15/26: Trump Says Iran Deal Is Done, Jeremy Scahill On US Capitulation, Israelis Meltdown Over Deal · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, You're happy Monday. We have an amazing
0:36
Speaker 1: show for everybody today. What we have, Crystal, indeed we do.
0:39
Speaker 2: We have a lot of excellent guests to cover some
0:41
Speaker 2: big news this morning, starting off with Jeremy Scahill, because
0:44
Speaker 2: it looks like we may actually have a deal, or
0:48
Speaker 2: at least a memo of understanding that is supposed to
0:51
Speaker 2: be signed on Friday, so he will break down what
0:54
Speaker 2: we know about that deal and what obstacles remain. We're
0:57
Speaker 2: also going to talk about the freak out from the
1:00
Speaker 2: the Zionists and the neocons over what appears to be
1:04
Speaker 2: the elements of that nascent deal. So obviously we've got
1:08
Speaker 2: to pay attention to that because they're going to do
1:10
Speaker 2: everything they can to make sure that there is never
1:13
Speaker 2: any resolution to this war. Also, huge news on the
1:16
Speaker 2: AI front in a couple of directions, So the government
1:19
Speaker 2: has effectively blocked Anthropics' latest release, Fable five, very similar
1:24
Speaker 2: to the Mythos release that was considered to be very dangerous.
1:27
Speaker 2: It had some guardrails put in. They're saying, no, this
1:30
Speaker 2: is still too dangerous to be used. Has been pulled back.
1:32
Speaker 2: There's a lot that's interesting there. And then we're going
1:34
Speaker 2: to talk to Ed Zatrone, who is a big skeptic
1:39
Speaker 2: of the economics of AI in particular and perfect person
1:42
Speaker 2: have on because we just had this big SpaceX ipo
1:45
Speaker 2: Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire, So they're really
1:47
Speaker 2: excited to talk to Edzatrone and get his view of
1:50
Speaker 2: what is going on there and whether or not this
1:52
Speaker 2: is all just a giant bubble. Trump had his big
1:55
Speaker 2: UFC birthday party yesterday, so MMA analyst Luke tom Us,
2:00
Speaker 2: who is also very political and has his eye on
2:02
Speaker 2: all of those angles of things is going to join
2:04
Speaker 2: us to break down the various elements. They're a lot
2:07
Speaker 2: interesting to dig into as well. And finally, the White
2:10
Speaker 2: House is apparently concerned that someone was actually recording inside
2:15
Speaker 2: of the Situation Room and that is how Jonathan Swan
2:18
Speaker 2: and Maggie Haberman were able to get these verbatim explosive
2:21
Speaker 2: revelations about the Epstein cover up and some other elements
2:25
Speaker 2: of what has been going on behind the scenes in
2:27
Speaker 2: the Trump administration. So you know, that would be quite
2:31
Speaker 2: something if someone is recording inside of the situation room, yes.
2:34
Speaker 3: Where phones are literally not allowed, and yet somehow seems
2:38
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3:01
Speaker 3: to record a little bit late with him, so the
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Speaker 3: full show is going to be out later than usual.
3:05
Speaker 3: Just a heads up, want to make sure that everybody
3:07
Speaker 3: knows that going into today. But let's go ahead and
3:09
Speaker 3: start with the big news a one. Let's put it
3:12
Speaker 3: up here on the screen. So here Donald Trump last
3:15
Speaker 3: night announcing the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran
3:18
Speaker 3: is now complete.
3:18
Speaker 1: Congratulations to all.
3:20
Speaker 3: I hereby fully authorized the toll free opening of the
3:23
Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuz, and simultaneously herewith authorize the immediate removal
3:28
Speaker 3: of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the world.
3:31
Speaker 3: Start your engines, let the oil flow. Let's immediately then
3:35
Speaker 3: go to the next one. And to show you, however,
3:38
Speaker 3: there are some major difficulties and obstacles. Netanyahu reportedly informed
3:44
Speaker 3: is the Trump that Israel will not pull IDEA forces
3:48
Speaker 3: from Lebanon and does not consider itself bound by the
3:51
Speaker 3: Lebanon clause in the US Iran agreement, which Iran has
3:54
Speaker 3: published fourteen points and in it includes a total withdrawal
3:59
Speaker 3: of Israeli forces from all Lebanese territory. This was confirmed
4:02
Speaker 3: by the Israeli Defense Minister cats as of this morning.
4:06
Speaker 3: Let's take a little bit of a listen to the
4:08
Speaker 3: Vice President van who immediately called in to Fox News
4:12
Speaker 3: to help sell the deal.
4:13
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
4:14
Speaker 4: I do think it's a big moment for the United
4:16
Speaker 4: States of America, thanks of course to the President's leadership
4:18
Speaker 4: and the hard work of the entire team. Three things
4:21
Speaker 4: that I think are important for the American people just
4:24
Speaker 4: to appreciate about what this deal does for all of
4:27
Speaker 4: us as Americans. Number One, this is the immediate opening
4:30
Speaker 4: of the Straits of Horn Moves and of course the
4:32
Speaker 4: lifting of the naval blockade that we've had on Iran
4:36
Speaker 4: along with it. The number two thing that it means
4:38
Speaker 4: is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and
4:41
Speaker 4: not just pursue a nuclear weapon for procure or try
4:44
Speaker 4: to buy a nuclear weapon as well. That's built into
4:47
Speaker 4: this agreement. And then the third thing is, and this
4:50
Speaker 4: only happens, to be clear if Iran delivers on their promise.
4:54
Speaker 4: And so there's an approach here where we verify and
4:57
Speaker 4: where there are real benefits so long as Iran meets
5:00
Speaker 4: there into the obligation. But if the Iranians comply with
5:03
Speaker 4: this deal, it is going to fundamentally transform the Middle
5:06
Speaker 4: East for the next fifty years. It's going to end
5:09
Speaker 4: the war, it's going to make the Middle East more investible.
5:12
Speaker 4: It's going to mean a lot of prosperity, lower energy
5:14
Speaker 4: prices for the American people. This region the world has
5:17
Speaker 4: been a basket case for my entire life and longer
5:20
Speaker 4: than that. And what the President has really set us
5:23
Speaker 4: to do is to certainly eliminate the nuclear threat of Iran.
5:27
Speaker 4: That's done, but now possibly to build to a new
5:30
Speaker 4: era of Middle East prosperity and success where it's not
5:34
Speaker 4: a region of the world where the United States has
5:36
Speaker 4: to worry about so much, but where frankly, we can
5:38
Speaker 4: generate a lot of prosperity for the American people out
5:41
Speaker 4: of that region. That's a very, very big win. And
5:44
Speaker 4: it all happened because the President's stuck with it.
5:46
Speaker 3: Well, that's the spin, at least from the White House.
5:49
Speaker 3: I guess if that's what we have to all swallow
5:52
Speaker 3: after this deal is done. But the reality is very clear.
5:55
Speaker 3: Let's go and put the Wall Street Journal piece up
5:58
Speaker 3: here on the screen. Don't worry, They're still plenty of
6:00
Speaker 3: time for Israel to try and torpedo. This deal, it
6:04
Speaker 3: will be signed on Friday in Geneva and marking as
6:09
Speaker 3: they write, US and Iran have reached a deal to
6:11
Speaker 3: stop the fighting and reopen shifting here. Trump said in
6:14
Speaker 3: an interview quote, we'll get the nuclear dust later on
6:17
Speaker 3: when we're ready to go in and to do it,
6:19
Speaker 3: I'd say over the next month or two.
6:22
Speaker 1: There's no rush. He called it harmless.
6:25
Speaker 3: Some of the background on this crystal is kind of
6:27
Speaker 3: maddening because so much of this came together. It appears
6:32
Speaker 3: that and we'll show some of this a little bit later.
6:35
Speaker 3: On Sunday, Israel had bombed Lebanon. Iran had immediately said,
6:39
Speaker 3: and the Vice President actually confirmed in that interview. He
6:42
Speaker 3: said Iran was preparing to strike a significant number of
6:45
Speaker 3: missiles upon Israeli soil. The President called them admonished. Israel
6:50
Speaker 3: called Iran and reportedly, according to the Iranians, they gave
6:53
Speaker 3: some major concessions. It appears that that major concession is
6:57
Speaker 3: likely the lifting of the total naval blockade upon the
7:00
Speaker 3: immediate signing of the deal on Friday.
7:03
Speaker 1: But that's where things stand as of right now.
7:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there is something that is worth noting here,
7:08
Speaker 2: which is we have not gotten the details of the
7:11
Speaker 2: deal from the American side. We've only gotten effectively their spend,
7:15
Speaker 2: like what we heard just there from JD. Vance. Our
7:18
Speaker 2: understanding comes entirely from the Iranian side and from reporting
7:22
Speaker 2: on sort of the outlines of this deal that has
7:24
Speaker 2: been being shaped over the past several months. As we
7:29
Speaker 2: understand it, effectively, this is not a full and complete deal.
7:32
Speaker 2: I think that's important to understand. It's a memo of
7:35
Speaker 2: understanding that would create a window of sixty days, and
7:39
Speaker 2: during that time that's when all of the elements with
7:42
Speaker 2: regard to specifically the nuclear file, but also the sort
7:46
Speaker 2: of you know how the straight of hor moves is
7:48
Speaker 2: going to run, All of that would be worked out during.
7:51
Speaker 5: That sixty days.
7:52
Speaker 2: So not only do you have a full week now
7:55
Speaker 2: to get to Friday and that signing ceremony where you
7:58
Speaker 2: know Israel can do that Israel is going to do,
8:01
Speaker 2: but then also during that sixty day period, are we
8:04
Speaker 2: really going to be able to come to full agreement
8:06
Speaker 2: with Iran on those nuclear issues without again those who
8:10
Speaker 2: would like to see us go back to war successfully
8:13
Speaker 2: undermining any sort of potential deal as they did in
8:16
Speaker 2: the past. But I do think Soccer is very telling
8:18
Speaker 2: that the Iranians put out, you know, their version of
8:22
Speaker 2: what this all looks like, but the Americans have not
8:25
Speaker 2: done so. I think because Trump understands how difficult this
8:29
Speaker 2: is going to be to sell to, you know, the
8:31
Speaker 2: neocons and the Zionists that are part of his political coalition.
8:36
Speaker 2: He understands that even for him, who you know, say
8:38
Speaker 2: what you want. And I say lots of things about Trump,
8:41
Speaker 2: he is a very good salesman, especially to his base.
8:43
Speaker 2: I think he even understands that it will be difficult
8:46
Speaker 2: to frame these specific details here as a big win
8:49
Speaker 2: for the US. Also on this piece about whether or
8:52
Speaker 2: not they're going to be tolls for the Strait of Hormuz,
8:54
Speaker 2: we've talked before about how it appears what the Iranians
8:57
Speaker 2: are going to do is like, well, no, we're not
8:59
Speaker 2: going to call it a toll. We'll call it an
9:01
Speaker 2: environmental responsibility payment for services rendered. And it looks like
9:05
Speaker 2: the street will be run with Iran and Oman. It
9:08
Speaker 2: looks like there will be sanctions relief, it looks like
9:10
Speaker 2: their assets will be unfrozen. It looks like there will
9:13
Speaker 2: be a lot of money put in for reconstruction into
9:17
Speaker 2: the country, and you can hear in jd Vance's comments
9:20
Speaker 2: there he says, well, this is going to transform the
9:22
Speaker 2: Middle East.
9:23
Speaker 1: That part is true.
9:24
Speaker 2: I think the war has already transformed not only the
9:26
Speaker 2: Middle East but the global order. And he says this
9:29
Speaker 2: will give us a reason why we can be less
9:32
Speaker 2: present in the region, which is a way of framing
9:34
Speaker 2: our withdrawal from the Middle East as a win, as
9:38
Speaker 2: if we weren't sort of forced out of these bases
9:40
Speaker 2: and forced on of the position at gunpoint.
9:43
Speaker 3: Right, I mean, yeah, if that's how they need to
9:45
Speaker 3: sell it, I'm fine with sure. Sure, as Rokanna said
9:48
Speaker 3: this morning, Fine, let's all just celebrate it. We can
9:51
Speaker 3: also leave the analysis and all that too, Professor Pape,
9:54
Speaker 3: who I'm sure will join us later this week and
9:56
Speaker 3: layout just how much of a strategic disaster and humiliation
9:59
Speaker 3: this is in for the United States. On the Iranian side,
10:02
Speaker 3: let's go and put a five B please up on
10:04
Speaker 3: the screen. So Iran's mayor news agency last night released
10:08
Speaker 3: the fourteen clauses of the memorandum of understanding. Let's check
10:11
Speaker 3: their work. On Friday, presumably the deal will become public
10:14
Speaker 3: and we can see whether any of this is true.
10:16
Speaker 3: They write twelve billion of Iran's frozen fronds will be
10:20
Speaker 3: released before negotiations begin, with another twelve billion during the
10:23
Speaker 3: sixty day final negotiation window. All oil and petrochemical sanctions
10:27
Speaker 3: are suspended.
10:28
Speaker 1: That's insane.
10:29
Speaker 3: That means a multi billion dollar windfall for the Iranian people.
10:33
Speaker 3: A full naval blockade lifted within thirty days. The US
10:36
Speaker 3: commits to non interference in Iranian affairs, a withdrawal of
10:39
Speaker 3: forces from around Iran, and no new sanctions or force
10:43
Speaker 3: deployments during negotiations. An immediate ceasefire is required on all fronts,
10:48
Speaker 3: including Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen within thirty
10:51
Speaker 3: days under Iranian arrangements. Iran reaffirms its NPT its commitment
10:56
Speaker 3: not to produce nuclear weapons. A sixty day window is
10:59
Speaker 3: set to negotiate a final deal covering nuclear issues, full
11:03
Speaker 3: sanctions removal. The US and allies must present reconstruction plans
11:06
Speaker 3: worth at least three hundred billion dollars. Iran's missile program
11:11
Speaker 3: and support for resistance groups are removed from the agenda entirely.
11:15
Speaker 3: No final negotiations begin Untielve. Twelve billion has been released oil,
11:19
Speaker 3: sanctions are suspended, the blockade has lifted, and a supervisory
11:22
Speaker 3: mechanism will oversee implementation with any full agreement approved by
11:26
Speaker 3: the UN Security Council resolution. I mean, there is no
11:29
Speaker 3: way of describing that than a total defeat of the
11:32
Speaker 3: United States. We are paying them hundreds of billions of dollars,
11:37
Speaker 3: either directly or indirectly via sanctions relief, allowing at least
11:41
Speaker 3: some de facto environmental toll fee over the Strait of Hormovez,
11:45
Speaker 3: not touching their missile program, not interfering with their support
11:48
Speaker 3: for Hesbola, which they have made a redline in the
11:51
Speaker 3: agreement itself. And then perhaps most importantly is Lebanon. But
11:54
Speaker 3: remember Lebanon. If there's one thing that's going to blow
11:57
Speaker 3: up this entire deal, it is going to be Israel,
11:59
Speaker 3: and it's commit into occupying Lebanon. And just to show
12:03
Speaker 3: everybody all of that, I believe that we have some
12:05
Speaker 3: of the video if we can show it here to everybody.
12:07
Speaker 3: What kicked all of this off, This was bea root
12:11
Speaker 3: on Sunday where we got the news, I mean, just
12:14
Speaker 3: devastating Israeli strikes in the middle of bay Rout. This
12:18
Speaker 3: was following Hesbola drone launches into northern Israel. But of
12:22
Speaker 3: course they lit up the Lebanese capital. As I said earlier,
12:26
Speaker 3: the Iranians appeared poised to launch a large number of
12:29
Speaker 3: ballistic missiles immediately. Then Donald Trump posts, if we have
12:34
Speaker 3: a eight, we can put it up here on the screen.
12:36
Speaker 3: Trump said quote, this morning's attack on beay Root should
12:41
Speaker 3: not have happened, particularly on a special day when we
12:44
Speaker 3: are so close to a peace deal with Iran Iran.
12:47
Speaker 3: Israel has the right to defend itself against the threats,
12:49
Speaker 3: but the attack it was responding to is very small, meaningless.
12:52
Speaker 3: Nobody was hurt, injured, or killed. Should not disrupt this
12:55
Speaker 3: important process. We're very close to a deal that will
12:58
Speaker 3: bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon. All sides
13:01
Speaker 3: should stand down. There should be no more attacks by
13:03
Speaker 3: Israel anywhere in Lebanon. But there should also be no
13:06
Speaker 3: more attacks by any other party, including Hezbola, against Israel.
13:09
Speaker 3: This could be the beginning of a long and a
13:11
Speaker 3: beautiful piece. Let's not blow it. Thank you for your
13:14
Speaker 3: attention to this matter. This was also followed by a
13:17
Speaker 3: classic Barokravid phone call, a nine. Let's put it up
13:21
Speaker 3: here on the screen Trump t Axios. Netanyahu has quote
13:25
Speaker 3: no fucking judgment, but Iran deal is still on. He says,
13:30
Speaker 3: the president is racing to sign the deal. Of the
13:33
Speaker 3: bay Root strike, he said, it shook it up. It
13:35
Speaker 3: delayed the signing by a few hours. It was supposed
13:37
Speaker 3: to be now now a schedule for a few hours
13:39
Speaker 3: from now. He then said about the strike, it's so bad.
13:43
Speaker 3: I couldn't believe it. An hour before we are supposed
13:46
Speaker 3: to sign the deal. He said, why did BB have
13:49
Speaker 3: to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off.
13:51
Speaker 3: I let him know he has no fucking judgment. I
13:54
Speaker 3: let him know that. And of course BB has not
13:57
Speaker 3: yet even issued one public statement after the announcement of
14:01
Speaker 3: said deal. However, we will talk with Jeremy here just
14:04
Speaker 3: in a little bit about what it looks like inside
14:07
Speaker 3: of Israel, a full blown nuclear style meltdown from the
14:11
Speaker 3: Israeli left, right and center, their media apparatus, and all
14:15
Speaker 3: of their supporters.
14:17
Speaker 1: One of the few nice you know.
14:18
Speaker 3: You know, we rarely get to report good news here
14:20
Speaker 3: on the show, but nothing gives me more joy than
14:23
Speaker 3: to see these people who are absolutely weeping and melting
14:27
Speaker 3: down but that again, that's where things stand now. As
14:30
Speaker 3: I said very early on, do not hold your breath.
14:33
Speaker 3: Friday's still long way away. A lot of potential Israeli
14:37
Speaker 3: strikes that could happen in the interim, lots of missiles,
14:41
Speaker 3: lots of you know, distrust, rightfully, I think, from the
14:45
Speaker 3: Iranian and the US side. But nonetheless it's a positive thing.
14:49
Speaker 3: The war should never have happened. I'm glad it's ending.
14:53
Speaker 3: What a disaster, fully, absolutely, yeah, I'm glad it appears
14:57
Speaker 3: to be maybe ending, But what an app disaster.
15:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, absolutely no doubt about it. So let's
15:04
Speaker 2: go ahead and bring in Jeremy to get his understanding
15:07
Speaker 2: of how this deal came together, the tenants of it,
15:10
Speaker 2: how shaky it is, how Israel and Lebanon factor into
15:13
Speaker 2: all of it.
15:16
Speaker 3: Very excited, how to be joined by Jeremy Scalhill, great
15:18
Speaker 3: friend of the show, co founder of drop Side News.
15:20
Speaker 1: Good to see you, Jeremy.
15:21
Speaker 5: Great to see both of you.
15:23
Speaker 1: Jeremy.
15:23
Speaker 3: Let's dig into it. Let's put this up here on
15:25
Speaker 3: the screen. We have the fourteen points released here by
15:28
Speaker 3: Iranian Mayor News Agency. As of last night. We broke
15:32
Speaker 3: down some of these clauses. How does it fit with
15:35
Speaker 3: the many senior Iranian officials and members of the delegation
15:38
Speaker 3: who you've been speaking to over the last forty eight
15:41
Speaker 3: hours or so.
15:42
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, there is caution that there are some
15:45
Speaker 6: details that are yet to be worked out. And the
15:47
Speaker 6: big wildcard here is what the Israelis and net Yahu
15:50
Speaker 6: are going to do regarding Lebanon. You know, last night
15:53
Speaker 6: when I was speaking to an Iranian official after the
15:56
Speaker 6: Israelis had bombed Dahia, the southern suburb of Beirut, and
16:00
Speaker 6: they said that it's going to be within the next
16:02
Speaker 6: three or four hours that we're going to launch retaliatory
16:04
Speaker 6: strikes against Israel in response to this bombing. And I
16:09
Speaker 6: was actually preparing a post that I was going to
16:13
Speaker 6: put up quoting the Irani official explaining some of the
16:15
Speaker 6: concerns they had about what this says for an agreement.
16:18
Speaker 6: And then Donald Trump comes out and says this is
16:21
Speaker 6: going to be imminent, and then the Pakistani Prime minister
16:24
Speaker 6: posts what he posted, and I was told by a
16:26
Speaker 6: source weight hold off, there's a meeting going on right now,
16:28
Speaker 6: and what I'm told happen. And again, this is Iran's narrative.
16:32
Speaker 6: We're going to see what happens when we see the
16:33
Speaker 6: formal text. But what they're claiming is that there was
16:37
Speaker 6: a flurry of activity. The mediators on behalf of Trump
16:40
Speaker 6: were begging the Iranians not to actually bomb Israel, and
16:44
Speaker 6: the Iranians claim that they were able to win some
16:46
Speaker 6: last minute concessions in some of the language. One of
16:49
Speaker 6: them involved a more swift reopening of the Strait of
16:52
Speaker 6: Hormuz and the pullback of some American military assets from
16:55
Speaker 6: the region. But the other is that they say that
16:58
Speaker 6: mediators told them that you United States was going to
17:01
Speaker 6: compel the Israelis to pull their troops out of southern Lebanon.
17:05
Speaker 6: That was not in the draft text that I saw
17:08
Speaker 6: a few days ago. So if the Iranian version of
17:11
Speaker 6: this is right, what they're saying is that Trump is
17:13
Speaker 6: saying he's going to force the Israelis to pull out
17:15
Speaker 6: of southern Lebanon. And what's most significant I think about
17:19
Speaker 6: the structure of this proposed memorandum of understanding is that
17:23
Speaker 6: the Iranians seem to have been able to build in
17:26
Speaker 6: terms that if the United States doesn't complete them or
17:29
Speaker 6: enforce them, the Iranians can say, well, then we're not
17:32
Speaker 6: going to move toward the sixty days of negotiations.
17:34
Speaker 5: On the nuclear issue.
17:36
Speaker 6: On a basic surface level, if you look at this,
17:39
Speaker 6: this does look largely like a Trump capitulation, because the
17:43
Speaker 6: Strait of Hormuz was open before this idea that it's
17:46
Speaker 6: some great victory to get the Iranians to say that
17:49
Speaker 6: they won't develop or seek in any way to acquire
17:51
Speaker 6: a nuclear weapon. If you go back and read the
17:53
Speaker 6: preamble to the twenty fifteen gcpoa that was in there,
17:57
Speaker 6: and so on one level, you can look at this
17:59
Speaker 6: and say, the Iranians have managed to set things back
18:03
Speaker 6: to the state that they were prior to the war,
18:06
Speaker 6: but with more leverage. On the other side, Iranians prize
18:10
Speaker 6: here would be a comprehensive lifting of sanctions. Yes, they're
18:13
Speaker 6: going to get some of their assets unfrozen, but it's
18:15
Speaker 6: really a relatively small amount of money compared to what
18:18
Speaker 6: they would get if the sanctions were lifted. And all
18:20
Speaker 6: of that depends on what happens during those sixty days
18:22
Speaker 6: of talks. Trump is saying if they don't make a deal,
18:24
Speaker 6: he's going to resume the war. I'm skeptical of that.
18:27
Speaker 6: For reasons that you guys have talked about before. The
18:29
Speaker 6: midterm elections are coming up, and the reality is that
18:32
Speaker 6: Iran fought the United States for roughly one hundred days,
18:35
Speaker 6: both militarily and diplomatically, to a standoff where the President
18:39
Speaker 6: of the United States is desperate to try to spin
18:41
Speaker 6: capitulation as victory.
18:44
Speaker 2: Can you talk a little bit more about the money
18:46
Speaker 2: piece of this for Iran, because I think this is
18:48
Speaker 2: a particularly sensitive issue for Trump and his coalition because
18:52
Speaker 2: they made a big deal about the assets that were
18:55
Speaker 2: unfrozen under the JCPOA, the palettes of cash being shipped
18:59
Speaker 2: to the Iran and terrorist regime. We heard all kinds
19:01
Speaker 2: of rhetoric about that. So can you speak to what
19:05
Speaker 2: is being contemplated here with regards to Iran having their
19:08
Speaker 2: assets on frozen stinctions lifted and also receiving compensation for
19:13
Speaker 2: the damage that was done to their country.
19:16
Speaker 6: I mean, there's some interesting things that if you read
19:18
Speaker 6: between the lines of some statements that Vice President jd
19:21
Speaker 6: Vance made recently, if you look at some of what
19:24
Speaker 6: Iran is saying, it's interesting. Let's start from the biggest
19:27
Speaker 6: sort of perspective on this. Iran has said that it
19:30
Speaker 6: wants at least twenty four billion dollars in its frozen assets.
19:33
Speaker 6: This is Iranian money that's been frozen repatriated to Iran
19:38
Speaker 6: at the front end of a deal that was Iran's
19:40
Speaker 6: opening position. Behind the scenes, there was discussion of phasing
19:43
Speaker 6: it where half of it would occur during the initial
19:47
Speaker 6: period of the memorandum of understanding and the other half
19:49
Speaker 6: of it would occur as sort of a benchmark process
19:52
Speaker 6: during the sixty day negotiation. But behind the scenes there's
19:56
Speaker 6: been a flurry of activity involving Katar, Saudi Arabia, Arab Emirates,
20:01
Speaker 6: reports of money already changing hands. The Emordis are denying that,
20:05
Speaker 6: but Iranian sources have told me that Trump wants to
20:08
Speaker 6: find a way to give us our money without saying
20:09
Speaker 6: that he gave us our money. So it's possible that
20:13
Speaker 6: this will kind of not become entirely public right away
20:17
Speaker 6: for the reasons you just mentioned that Trump wants to
20:19
Speaker 6: be able to say I didn't do what Barack Hussein
20:21
Speaker 6: Obama did and give them cash at the front end
20:23
Speaker 6: of this deal. The other day, Jade Vance posted on
20:26
Speaker 6: x a remarkably kind of diplomatic statement about the state
20:29
Speaker 6: of affairs, and within that he said, you know, no
20:31
Speaker 6: money is going to exchange hands at the beginning of this,
20:34
Speaker 6: Iran's not going to be given money for showing up
20:36
Speaker 6: to a meeting or signing a document. That's very different
20:40
Speaker 6: than Trump saying no money is ever going to exchange hands.
20:43
Speaker 6: What I think Vance is indicating is that there is
20:46
Speaker 6: this alternative process going on. So we'll have to see
20:49
Speaker 6: when we see the actual text how the Trump administration
20:53
Speaker 6: tries to finesse this. There's also a discussion of maybe
20:56
Speaker 6: some of it being framed as loans, or some of
20:59
Speaker 6: it being humanitarian in nature, or some of it being
21:02
Speaker 6: portrayed as financing that's coming from Gulf countries out of
21:05
Speaker 6: the goodness of their hearts. But the reality is the
21:07
Speaker 6: Iranians aren't going to move forward unless a significant portion
21:10
Speaker 6: of that twenty four billion dollars is in one way
21:13
Speaker 6: or another repatriated. And the whole thing really is about
21:15
Speaker 6: narrative spin right now. But Jade Vance's comment I think
21:18
Speaker 6: was really interesting because it was taking a more nuanced
21:21
Speaker 6: position than Trump, and I think indicates that there is
21:23
Speaker 6: an alternative process playing out that may not appear in
21:26
Speaker 6: the document where Iran ends up getting its money without
21:28
Speaker 6: Trump having to say we gave it to them.
21:30
Speaker 3: God, there's a lot of face saving going on, isn't there?
21:33
Speaker 3: Last question, Jeremy, The Iranians claim that they were able
21:37
Speaker 3: to extract at the very last minute the lifting of
21:40
Speaker 3: the total blockade upon signing as a result of their
21:44
Speaker 3: willingness to strike Israel after they struck Lebanon. How does
21:48
Speaker 3: that comport with what you heard, because I think that's
21:50
Speaker 3: pretty extraordinary that they were able to extract that.
21:52
Speaker 6: If it's true, Yeah, I mean I have been shown
21:56
Speaker 6: language two nights ago that was pretty close to that
21:58
Speaker 6: when I went back then, so I was questioning at first,
22:01
Speaker 6: you know, was this really a concession? And then late
22:03
Speaker 6: last night when I was talking to the Iranians, they said, yeah,
22:06
Speaker 6: there are some technical details that shifted that we had
22:09
Speaker 6: been pushing for, and Trump in the end came through
22:12
Speaker 6: and said, yes, it's going to happen. I mean, there
22:13
Speaker 6: is the issue of the mining we're going to see.
22:15
Speaker 6: They're saying that it's going to be lifted as of Friday,
22:17
Speaker 6: not immediately as Trump said. But Segar, I think the
22:21
Speaker 6: bigger issue, and I think this is going to be
22:23
Speaker 6: the center of the whole ballgame is going to be Lebanon, Israel.
22:26
Speaker 6: The Defense Minister and others are saying, we aren't bound
22:29
Speaker 6: by this agreement. This is going to be a real
22:32
Speaker 6: test of if Trump actually wants this deal, because if
22:35
Speaker 6: the Israelis continue their siege on Lebanon, the Iranians have
22:39
Speaker 6: shown quite clearly that at least right now, they are
22:42
Speaker 6: not going to sit on their hands. They're saying they
22:43
Speaker 6: didn't strike for the reason that you said, because they
22:46
Speaker 6: got capitulations from Trump at the eleventh hour, and they
22:49
Speaker 6: wouldn't have done it otherwise. I think that there's real
22:52
Speaker 6: risk for Iran here. There's a ferocious internal debate. People
22:56
Speaker 6: were calling for the head of Golibof and Arachi saying
22:59
Speaker 6: that this is a bad deal for Iran, and the
23:01
Speaker 6: center of that is they feel that Iran has more
23:03
Speaker 6: strategic leverage over the United States than it's had in many,
23:06
Speaker 6: many years.
23:07
Speaker 5: And the concern is that if Iran gives up too
23:10
Speaker 5: much and.
23:10
Speaker 6: Gets bogged down in a process without comprehensive sanctions relief,
23:13
Speaker 6: the Iranian economy continues to suffer. The Israelis escalate their
23:17
Speaker 6: covert MOSAD operations inside of Iran, and Iran's rally around
23:21
Speaker 6: the flag effect starts to diminish. That's a real concern
23:24
Speaker 6: that we're hearing from some Iranians who oppose this deal.
23:30
Speaker 2: It's a good transition to the freak count in Israel
23:34
Speaker 2: because obviously, as you pointed out, Israel and Lebanon still
23:37
Speaker 2: the primary area in which this whole thing could fall apart,
23:41
Speaker 2: and could fall apart very quickly. I actually want to
23:43
Speaker 2: start with b six year Bezaliel's Mochurch coming out and
23:47
Speaker 2: expressing his concerns about the deal. He says, the agreement
23:51
Speaker 2: with Iran is bad for Israel and for the entire
23:54
Speaker 2: free world period. The joint campaign had many achievements and
23:57
Speaker 2: weakening Iran. They will not go to ways. We will
23:59
Speaker 2: have to continue the campaign to topple the regime ourselves
24:04
Speaker 2: and in creative ways, and ensure that Iran will never
24:08
Speaker 2: have clear weapons. None of the candidates who see themselves
24:10
Speaker 2: as fit for the premiership would with stand even ten
24:12
Speaker 2: percent of the pressure currently being applied to the Israeli government,
24:15
Speaker 2: especially to the one at its head in Lebanon. We
24:17
Speaker 2: will be tested. This is our war, our fighters, and
24:20
Speaker 2: the immediate security of our northern residents. I will continue
24:23
Speaker 2: to act so that we continue to stand firm on
24:26
Speaker 2: ours and allow the IDF full freedom of action to
24:29
Speaker 2: continue pushing Hezbolah away. Jerry, what do you make of
24:33
Speaker 2: those comments? I took particular note of the mention that
24:38
Speaker 2: they would continue to topple the try to topple the
24:40
Speaker 2: Iranian regime in quote creative ways.
24:44
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think that's clear, and that's been
24:46
Speaker 6: the policy for a long time. But I think they're
24:47
Speaker 6: going to really escalate those efforts. I mean, Crystal, there's
24:49
Speaker 6: something else interesting here, which is that Iranian officials and
24:52
Speaker 6: analysts that I've been talking to, not just government officials,
24:55
Speaker 6: believe that there is going to be another war and
24:57
Speaker 6: it's going to be between Iran and Israel. And they
25:01
Speaker 6: said that the focus right now is the issue of
25:03
Speaker 6: decoupling the Israelis and the United States are trying to
25:07
Speaker 6: decouple Hasbolah from Iran. Trump now has gone in a
25:11
Speaker 6: bit of a different direction because of this reported concession
25:13
Speaker 6: to the Iranians. We'll see how that plays out. And
25:16
Speaker 6: they've enlisted the Lebanese government in this parallel so called
25:20
Speaker 6: peace process, and they're trying to get the Lebanese army
25:22
Speaker 6: to serve as the kind of domestic enforcer of the
25:25
Speaker 6: campaign to break Hasblah, and that has all kinds of
25:29
Speaker 6: complicated issues attached to it because of the diversity of Lebanon,
25:33
Speaker 6: the way the system is structured, and the popularity of
25:37
Speaker 6: the resistance right now, particularly among the Shia population of Lebanon.
25:41
Speaker 6: From the Iranian position, and I was told this by
25:43
Speaker 6: an Iranian official in addition to Iranian analysts, the Iranians
25:47
Speaker 6: want to try to accentuate the divisions between the United
25:50
Speaker 6: States and Israel on Lebanon. And they have no illusions
25:54
Speaker 6: that Donald Trump has been this immense backer of these
25:58
Speaker 6: genocidal scorched earth wars. They're clear on that. But they
26:01
Speaker 6: also are very savvy students of American politics, and they
26:04
Speaker 6: understand that there's divisions within the Republican Party. They understand
26:08
Speaker 6: that Israel is increasingly becoming a toxic issue on the
26:12
Speaker 6: right in the United States, that it's going to play
26:14
Speaker 6: a role in the midterm elections, that net Nyahu is
26:16
Speaker 6: going to face reelection, and that he's being attacked from
26:19
Speaker 6: the right saying you didn't finish these wars, that Hamas
26:23
Speaker 6: still is in power, in their section of Gaza that
26:26
Speaker 6: has Bela is still killing Israeli soldiers, including with these
26:29
Speaker 6: very cheaply made FPV drones. That the Iranian government is
26:33
Speaker 6: still firmly in place, and there's actually a Kamani who
26:36
Speaker 6: is the supreme leader of Iran. And so I do
26:40
Speaker 6: think that it's not just the loonies like Smotrich and
26:44
Speaker 6: Ben Gaverer, but I think the mainstream of Israeli political
26:48
Speaker 6: power wants to continue this war against Lebanon. And the
26:51
Speaker 6: wild card here is what happens when it comes up
26:54
Speaker 6: against Trump's public projections. You know, but at the end
26:58
Speaker 6: of the day, no one trusts the America, no one
27:00
Speaker 6: trusts Trump. The Iranians are not stupid. In fact, their
27:03
Speaker 6: delegation often is flushed with PhDs when ours is flushed
27:07
Speaker 6: with last weekend's golf scores.
27:08
Speaker 3: Right, let's put P seven up here on the screen.
27:11
Speaker 3: Just to your point. Here we have Yayir Lapede. A
27:14
Speaker 3: tough morning for this guy is the leftist by the
27:17
Speaker 3: way of Israel. This Israeli citizens are waking up to
27:21
Speaker 3: an agreement between the US and Iran made over Israel's
27:24
Speaker 3: head in one signature stroke, immense military achievements secured with
27:27
Speaker 3: the courage of our pilots and the blood of our
27:29
Speaker 3: fighters has been erased, while nata Yah, who stood on
27:32
Speaker 3: the sidelines, weak, ill, isolated and powerless. He signs an
27:36
Speaker 3: agreement that funnels billions to the Ayatolas regime, leaves in
27:39
Speaker 3: nuclear structure intact, preserves the ballistic missile threat as is
27:43
Speaker 3: throws a lifeline to the murders regime in Tehran. This
27:46
Speaker 3: is the culmination of long years of failure. Netanyahu is
27:49
Speaker 3: the man who for years sold the public a false
27:52
Speaker 3: image of mister security and in reality became the father
27:56
Speaker 3: of Israel's greatest strategic failure in history. The man who
28:00
Speaker 3: built the notion of Hamas is an asset, who enabled
28:04
Speaker 3: the flow of Katari money, who abandoned the diplomatic arena,
28:07
Speaker 3: who dismantled Israel's alliances and left it isolated. At the
28:10
Speaker 3: moment of truth, Netsan Yahoo is good for Hamas, He
28:13
Speaker 3: is good for Iran, He is good for Hazbolah. He
28:15
Speaker 3: is not good for Israel. The one who promised total
28:18
Speaker 3: victory ends his tenure with Israel's enemy stronger, Israel weaker,
28:22
Speaker 3: and the deterrence built with the blood of our fighters
28:24
Speaker 3: eroding before our nation. I mean, you could have written
28:27
Speaker 3: that from ben Vere or Spotrich too, but it does
28:30
Speaker 3: demonstrate Jeremy the level of basic I guess bipartisan is
28:35
Speaker 3: what you would call it. You know, the problem for
28:37
Speaker 3: bb Netanyahu inside of Israel at a critical political moment
28:42
Speaker 3: for him, And so how are the Iranians thinking that,
28:45
Speaker 3: you know, they can look at Israeli politics the same
28:47
Speaker 3: way any of us can about the reality of getting
28:50
Speaker 3: sixty days without fire in Lebanon, potentially even fire on Iran.
28:55
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's it's and we've been talking about
28:57
Speaker 6: this on the show and elsewhere before that it's been
29:00
Speaker 6: really clear over the past few years that it's not,
29:02
Speaker 6: as Bernie Sanders says, the extremest right wing government of
29:05
Speaker 6: Benjamin Netanyahu. This is at the core of mainstream political
29:09
Speaker 6: life now in Israel, and in some ways it is
29:12
Speaker 6: reminiscent of the posture of many top democrats in the
29:16
Speaker 6: United States, where they're sort of egging Trump on and
29:20
Speaker 6: they're they're sort of using the Taco line that Trump
29:22
Speaker 6: always chickens out, and they're trying to sort of make
29:24
Speaker 6: it more you know, make you make Trump more aggressive
29:27
Speaker 6: or sort of attack him from the position of you
29:29
Speaker 6: failed to achieve these objectives and the regime is being
29:33
Speaker 6: left in power. There are ways in which that that
29:35
Speaker 6: also is kind of a common dynamic within the Institutional
29:38
Speaker 6: Democratic Party, who very much actually wanted a war against Iran,
29:43
Speaker 6: and they were happy to have Trump do it because
29:45
Speaker 6: the odds of it becoming a disaster could be beneficial
29:48
Speaker 6: to the American Democratic Party's political future at the mid
29:52
Speaker 6: term elections. But again, my understanding is that many Iranian officials,
29:59
Speaker 6: many leaders of HASBL law, do not view this as
30:02
Speaker 6: the potential end of the war. They view it as
30:04
Speaker 6: a phase where the crossroads is going to be How
30:07
Speaker 6: much more deeply does the United States get involved with
30:10
Speaker 6: what is ultimately going to be a war on the
30:12
Speaker 6: part of Iran. Has the Law potentially a broader access
30:15
Speaker 6: of resistance against Israel as the Israelis start to ratchet
30:19
Speaker 6: up their covert operations inside of Iran. Tests are going
30:23
Speaker 6: to be all over the place in the next week
30:25
Speaker 6: or so, because the Israelis clearly want to undermine this.
30:29
Speaker 6: Trump apparently told them he's going to stop this.
30:32
Speaker 5: I doubt it.
30:34
Speaker 6: I think it's going to be really tough and then
30:35
Speaker 6: the ball is in Iran's court. Do we say no
30:37
Speaker 6: nuclear negotiations unless the score strarth bombing or siege of
30:40
Speaker 6: Lebanon stops. That really, in a lot of ways, is
30:42
Speaker 6: going to be the massive question looming over this for
30:45
Speaker 6: the coming days.
30:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, as it has been the whole time. Just to
30:49
Speaker 2: give a broader sense of how this is landing with
30:51
Speaker 2: the Israeli public, not just the political clause, it can
30:54
Speaker 2: be three up on the screen. These were some telegram
30:57
Speaker 2: comments that were pulled by Middle Eastern analysts to see
31:01
Speaker 2: among some of the choice quotes here from ordinary Israelis
31:05
Speaker 2: on telegram, god will curse Trump the first war in
31:09
Speaker 2: Israel's history that we lost. We have to admit the facts.
31:13
Speaker 2: Iranian's taught America a lesson. I think that's probably true.
31:16
Speaker 2: Hopefully in ten years we won't be dependent on American idiots.
31:21
Speaker 2: And then to turn to the American domestic political context,
31:25
Speaker 2: because we have plenty of influential pundits in our own
31:29
Speaker 2: country who seem to put the interests of Israel above
31:34
Speaker 2: virtually anything else, one of them being Mark Levin, who
31:36
Speaker 2: has been very influential with the White House. Trump has
31:39
Speaker 2: tweeted out multiple times.
31:40
Speaker 1: Hey, you got to.
31:41
Speaker 2: Watch what this guy Mark Levin is saying, because he's
31:43
Speaker 2: right on target. Let's go and take a listen here
31:46
Speaker 2: to be one and his immediate reaction last night to
31:50
Speaker 2: what we knew of the deal and.
31:52
Speaker 7: When Israel is forced to defend itself, including preemptively against
31:55
Speaker 7: Hezballah in Lebanon. To remember, they're not at war with Lebanon.
31:58
Speaker 7: They have a piece still with Lebanon. They'd never been
32:00
Speaker 7: at war with Lebanon. And it is said to be
32:03
Speaker 7: in violation of the deal. We saw this play out earlier,
32:07
Speaker 7: providing the Iranian regime with a strategic opportunity to attack Israel,
32:12
Speaker 7: claiming it's defending its ally and that Israel violated the deal.
32:16
Speaker 7: What then will Israel become a pariah and will it
32:21
Speaker 7: be admonished?
32:24
Speaker 5: Iran's counting on it, and so is.
32:26
Speaker 7: Hes Belah must not be in the deal. It must
32:32
Speaker 7: not and that must be very clear. But to me,
32:34
Speaker 7: and at this stage, it's not very clear, despite some
32:37
Speaker 7: of the language that's been put out in anonymous briefings
32:42
Speaker 7: of certain media by administration officials.
32:46
Speaker 2: Let's also put Lindsay Graham up on the screen because
32:49
Speaker 2: I thought his response was also very interesting. You know,
32:51
Speaker 2: in the American political context, Jeremy, mostly I've seen the
32:54
Speaker 2: neocon sort of reluctant to directly really criticized Trump, especially
32:57
Speaker 2: since the American side has not least all of the
33:01
Speaker 2: details of the deal from their perspective. So in any case,
33:05
Speaker 2: Lindsay Graham here says, I'm pleased to hear the memorandum
33:07
Speaker 2: of understanding with Iran to allow the straight up removes
33:09
Speaker 2: to open has been agreed to. I'll be watching closely
33:12
Speaker 2: the ensuing negotiations regarding Iron's nuclear program and other matters.
33:16
Speaker 2: I'm somewhat concerned that Aron's view of the agreement seems
33:19
Speaker 2: different than what the American negotiating team is claiming. Under
33:22
Speaker 2: our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent
33:25
Speaker 2: to Congress for review and a vote. So Congress didn't
33:28
Speaker 2: get to say on going to war, but apparently peace
33:30
Speaker 2: Congress has to approve. I look forward to reviewing the
33:34
Speaker 2: final product, and I believe it is imperative that the
33:37
Speaker 2: architect of the deal, Vice President Vance, and his negotiating partners,
33:41
Speaker 2: be part of the process in presenting the final deal
33:44
Speaker 2: to Congress. Congratulations to all and getting us to this
33:47
Speaker 2: point time will tell that peace about jd Vance to
33:49
Speaker 2: me is very significant because it seems like it's Lindsay
33:54
Speaker 2: Graham trying to position himself to be very critical of
33:57
Speaker 2: the deal without having to criticize Trump directly. Can blame Oh,
34:00
Speaker 2: jd Vance the negotiating team. They screwed this whole thing up.
34:04
Speaker 2: If it was Trump at that negotiating table man who
34:06
Speaker 2: had an art of the deal and regime change and
34:08
Speaker 2: all the things that we all would have that you know,
34:10
Speaker 2: he personally would have wanted.
34:12
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's a good point.
34:13
Speaker 6: I think you know, we're looking also at twenty twenty
34:15
Speaker 6: eight messaging here, and clearly Lindsey Graham doesn't doesn't want
34:20
Speaker 6: jad Vance to be the nominee at least at this point,
34:23
Speaker 6: or the successor to Trump and the MAGA movement.
34:25
Speaker 5: But a couple of interesting details.
34:27
Speaker 6: Crystal One is on this issue of Iran's ballistic missile program,
34:31
Speaker 6: Trump and others were talking from the beginning that, you know,
34:34
Speaker 6: the Iranian ballistic missile range has to be reduced, that
34:36
Speaker 6: their ballistic missile program has to be eliminated, that their
34:40
Speaker 6: support for their regional allies has to be completely ended,
34:43
Speaker 6: that the nuclear dust is going to be taken by
34:45
Speaker 6: American forces and removed from the country. Now what are
34:48
Speaker 6: we talking about. Trump is saying, Oh, it doesn't actually
34:50
Speaker 6: need to be removed, it can be destroyed in the country.
34:53
Speaker 6: What this is for people that actually have been following
34:56
Speaker 6: this closely is Trump is coming around to the position
34:59
Speaker 6: that the Irani and told them was their red line,
35:01
Speaker 6: which is around said we are not going to remove
35:03
Speaker 6: are highly enriched uranium. We are willing to discuss a
35:06
Speaker 6: dilution of it.
35:07
Speaker 5: You know.
35:08
Speaker 6: The Iranians also told me they were willing to put
35:10
Speaker 6: on the table a ten year moratorium on enriching above
35:12
Speaker 6: three point six percent, that they were willing to dilute
35:15
Speaker 6: any of their enriched uranium it's above twenty percent back
35:18
Speaker 6: down to civilian levels. They said that they were coming
35:22
Speaker 6: in with a flexibility. It was Trump that laid out
35:24
Speaker 6: all of these things. The regime is going to be overthrown.
35:26
Speaker 6: The people are going to rise up. We're going to
35:27
Speaker 6: get rid of all their ballistic missiles. They're not going
35:29
Speaker 6: to have a drone program anymore. We're going to come
35:31
Speaker 6: in and US soldiers are going to retrieve the nuclear dust.
35:34
Speaker 6: Now what we're talking about is going back to sort
35:37
Speaker 6: of the discussions that were existing as of February twenty seventh,
35:41
Speaker 6: the day before Trump and net Nyahu launched this war.
35:44
Speaker 6: The big scandal here, in perpetuity should remain that Donald
35:48
Speaker 6: Trump chose this war. That he did so not only
35:53
Speaker 6: at great economic costs to the world, not only because
35:57
Speaker 6: it humiliated the United States, but also because the deal
36:00
Speaker 6: that he's going to get in the end potentially is
36:03
Speaker 6: going to be worse than the terms the Iranians were
36:07
Speaker 6: putting on the table for the year basically leading up
36:11
Speaker 6: to this war. And really, if we had an actual
36:14
Speaker 6: aggressive Congress where you actually had Republicans willing to take
36:18
Speaker 6: on the president. This is an epic scandal what has happened,
36:22
Speaker 6: because what we've seen over the past hundred days is
36:25
Speaker 6: a complete and total unnecessary war that was counterproductive that
36:30
Speaker 6: in the end makes Americans less safe. Also because it
36:33
Speaker 6: shows the world that there's this gratuitous violence that the
36:36
Speaker 6: US will just unleash, that Israel seems to be in
36:40
Speaker 6: control of a large portion of our decision making, and
36:43
Speaker 6: that the President of the United States humiliated the highest
36:46
Speaker 6: office in the land and wasn't even able to get
36:48
Speaker 6: a deal that was better than the terms that the
36:51
Speaker 6: other side was putting on the table before you went
36:53
Speaker 6: and launched one hundred day military, economic, and diplomatic war.
36:57
Speaker 5: It's scandalous.
36:59
Speaker 3: J Jarry win Lass, just hold that after the deal's done,
37:03
Speaker 3: then what's all honest? After the deal's done. In the interim,
37:06
Speaker 3: he's the greatest president of what we can say.
37:08
Speaker 2: We can say we're very glad that perhaps potentially there
37:11
Speaker 2: is a deal to end this disaster, but that it's
37:13
Speaker 2: been a disaster. But one last question for you, Jeremy,
37:16
Speaker 2: why is why did Iran she use to make Lebanon
37:19
Speaker 2: so central and we hear nothing about Gaza.
37:23
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, that's a question that many Palestinians have
37:25
Speaker 6: asked me. I also discussed this the other day with
37:27
Speaker 6: Hassan A. Madia and who's one of the most well
37:30
Speaker 6: known Iran analysts. And you know, the answers that I've
37:32
Speaker 6: been given when I've talked to Iranian officials about this,
37:35
Speaker 6: just as someone who's really immersed in covering Gaza, I've
37:37
Speaker 6: found them to be unsatisfying answers, but I understand them.
37:42
Speaker 6: Iran says that they that this is more complicated than Lebanon,
37:46
Speaker 6: because the Palestinian factions signed an agreement with Trump and
37:51
Speaker 6: with Israel that there's a United Nations Security Council resolution
37:54
Speaker 6: that is governing the so called Board of Peace, that
37:57
Speaker 6: there is a separate track of negotiations that is happening
37:59
Speaker 6: between the Palestinians and the Israelis via the Board of Peace. Yes,
38:04
Speaker 6: the Iranians are watching and they are extremely opposed to
38:08
Speaker 6: this and say that they're in solidarity with the Palestinians
38:10
Speaker 6: of Gaza. But they're saying that it would require an
38:13
Speaker 6: entire separate diplomatic track and that they don't have the
38:17
Speaker 6: leverage to also put Gaza and the war under its umbrella.
38:22
Speaker 6: And one Iranian officials said to me, So, if we
38:24
Speaker 6: were to start doing this, what do we say about
38:27
Speaker 6: illegal settlements, what do we say about the siege and
38:29
Speaker 6: the force displacement in the occupied West Bank. It's not
38:32
Speaker 6: that we don't want to do this, it's that in
38:34
Speaker 6: order to do that, it requires a whole other front.
38:37
Speaker 6: And what they're saying is we're going to get to that.
38:39
Speaker 6: But has Belah actively entered the warfront on March second
38:44
Speaker 6: by attacking Israel in response to the aggression against Iran.
38:48
Speaker 6: And also the myth of Iran being the kind of
38:52
Speaker 6: primary backer of Hamas. It's just false that Iran is
38:57
Speaker 6: somehow some puppet master controlling ham Hamas and Hesblah.
39:01
Speaker 5: Have a very different relationship to Iran.
39:04
Speaker 6: I think the Iranians also came to a point where
39:06
Speaker 6: they felt like this was d Day and if they
39:09
Speaker 6: didn't draw a red line in defending and having a
39:13
Speaker 6: joint front with Hasbelah and the Southern Resistance in Lebanon,
39:16
Speaker 6: that they were essentially seating that territory in perpetuity. To
39:20
Speaker 6: the Israelis, the situation with the Palestinians at Gaza is
39:24
Speaker 6: unspeakably horrifying.
39:25
Speaker 5: Just one statistic for you.
39:26
Speaker 6: Israel has killed more Palestinians since the October ceasefire was
39:32
Speaker 6: signed then Israeli civilians that were killed on October seventh.
39:37
Speaker 5: Think about that for a moment.
39:38
Speaker 6: The Israelis have killed more Palestinians, approximately one thousand in
39:44
Speaker 6: Gaza since the ceasefire was signed last October. Then civilians
39:48
Speaker 6: who died in Israel in the Hamas led attacks on
39:51
Speaker 6: October seventh, twenty twenty three. When you look at that
39:54
Speaker 6: and then you say, oh, we're making a deal with
39:56
Speaker 6: Donald Trump, the world looks very different. So I think
39:59
Speaker 6: that's why every one's very suspicious about this.
40:01
Speaker 3: That's a really really important point there, and it is
40:04
Speaker 3: you know, if anything, it at least dispels this myth
40:07
Speaker 3: that Hamas is one hundred you know, Iran controlled, because
40:11
Speaker 3: if it was, then they would be drawing a lot
40:13
Speaker 3: more redlines around that than they did around Lebanon, which
40:16
Speaker 3: genuinely does make a lot of sense. Thank you so
40:19
Speaker 3: much for your analysis and all the work that you
40:21
Speaker 3: guys are doing. Jeremy, we rely on you so totally
40:25
Speaker 3: to actually get the truth about what's going on and
40:28
Speaker 3: keep us updated on Iran's view of Trump's psychology, because
40:30
Speaker 3: the audience seemed to really appreciate that.
40:33
Speaker 6: All right, take care and thank you guys for your
40:35
Speaker 6: continuing great work.
40:36
Speaker 1: Thanks man aur a pleasure.