Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Orbital Supremacy: AST SpaceMobile’s $30M Prime Contract and the Billion Dollar Space Pivot
Transcript
- 0:12This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 0:17We will just basically turn your phone and be seamless,
- 0:20regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 0:23know that it's connected by satellite, by satellite.
- 0:27Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
- 0:33Everyone, thanks for joining. It's a big Blizzard here in New
- 0:37York City. There's what seems to be never
- 0:41ending snow that's coming down. And so we are trapped at home
- 0:45with our children. It's been fun, at least we've
- 0:48been. I've gone outside and played in
- 0:50the snow and then of course been online seeing some of the
- 0:54carnage in the market unfold, I guess in responses to trainee
- 0:58report or this, this article about how, you know, painting a
- 1:04potential perspective on how AI could disrupt the economy and
- 1:08and of course, markets. But that was actually a, you
- 1:13know, related to that article was actually a good reminder for
- 1:17people who are invested in space.
- 1:18I think, you know, AI obviously is going to, has been and will
- 1:22continue to disrupt a lot of industries and there's going to
- 1:24be a lot of 2nd and 3rd order effects.
- 1:26And I, I don't think this between the article, you know,
- 1:30it paints the worst potential picture, but I, I think it also
- 1:33ignores benefits. And then also, I think human,
- 1:38the human condition and preference for things that are
- 1:43non artificial. And it's something that I've
- 1:46been thinking about for a bit in regards to, you know, all the AI
- 1:51generated stuff that just appears to have taken over X and
- 1:55these other social platforms, social media platforms.
- 1:57I think in the future there will be this, you know, desire to put
- 2:03a premium on human generated content.
- 2:05And that that's, you know, whether that's articles, books,
- 2:10you know, even thinking about like when I generate an e-mail
- 2:14and Gemini now tries to make my e-mail more concise or, you
- 2:20know, I, I grammatically correct.
- 2:22I think there will be this desire to have a human touch,
- 2:27which is even with errors, you know, I, I just like when people
- 2:31write research nowadays and that you can tell that's AI
- 2:33generated. What that often lacks is like
- 2:37judgment. Or, you know, if someone's, if
- 2:39you have a Swiss watchmaker who has, who's selling you a watch
- 2:43that is several $1000 and it has like hundreds of movements,
- 2:47you're probably going to pay a premium for that versus
- 2:49something that was just thrown together by robots.
- 2:53So I think, I think there's a balance of it all.
- 2:55And just like when folks were given a choice of eating food
- 3:01that was organic or not, I think things will just like, you know,
- 3:05in content, things are labeled with AI and, and then not, I
- 3:08think eventually people are going to gravitate back towards
- 3:12authentic experiences and in materials and, you know,
- 3:17products and services. And so at some point, I think
- 3:21they'll be, if it does get that bad there, there'll probably be
- 3:24a backlash in some government regulations and, you know, a
- 3:27whole host of things to adopt to the new reality.
- 3:29But I think what was painted over the weekend is very extreme
- 3:33and, and, you know, is, is meant to drive eyeballs and, and
- 3:37engagement. And that's, that's what, you
- 3:41know, that particular individual and the service of the run,
- 3:45that's that's their business. They're they're there to be fed
- 3:48merchants and try to get as many people engaged and and then of
- 3:53course, like, you know, subscribing to whatever service
- 3:56it is. So anyway, the reason why I
- 3:58bring that up there is that obviously the macro backdrop has
- 4:01been pretty rough. And I joked about it earlier how
- 4:04anthropic they should start a hedge fund and take short
- 4:07positions in certain sectors and then announce that Claude is,
- 4:11you know, they're they're going to release a new tool, Claude
- 4:14code or whatever it is, right? That's going to disrupt that
- 4:17sector and then profit from being short because that that in
- 4:21of itself, like that's a great way to fund Anthropic.
- 4:23And it's what it's what the market is totally focused on
- 4:29right now. You know, throwing the baby out
- 4:31with bathwater and shooting 1st and ask questions, questions
- 4:34later, which I think there's, you know, we're through this.
- 4:39We're in this phase where people are just panicking and, and just
- 4:42assume that everything's going to go to 0.
- 4:44But in reality, I don't think the I don't think you can draw
- 4:49conclusions if we were winners and losers aren't going to be
- 4:51that quickly. But you know, obviously
- 4:54businesses are going to have to adjust And and you know, I think
- 4:58in particular why how it relates to ASD space mobile.
- 5:01I know people have anxiety and concerns about things taking
- 5:06longer than expected. And that's part of the industry
- 5:08that's space is hard, right? And that also is a positive
- 5:12thing, right? Because that's, if you think
- 5:15about space stocks and what companies are doing, the
- 5:18expertise that's required to develop a program, produce it at
- 5:23scale, go launch it in space, go test it and then and then launch
- 5:28a service like that's really difficult.
- 5:30That's something that what makes that hard is also a key mode
- 5:34that makes it less susceptible to AI disruption, right.
- 5:38And so I think today there was, I think Anthropic was saying
- 5:43that Claude could now redo code that was done in COBOL and, and
- 5:48updating it to become modern and ensure like software code, you
- 5:52can do that. But then building a 4/5 ton
- 5:56satellite that can do directed device communications and radar
- 6:00sensing, PNT all host a whole host of military applications.
- 6:05That's not something that AI is going to be able to do on its
- 6:09own. It's, it's obviously AI can be
- 6:10used as a tool to optimize the design of that and then of
- 6:14course manage that satellite. But there's real hard, you know,
- 6:19there, there's a hard process to do that.
- 6:21And and that's not something that can be disrupted overnight.
- 6:24It's going to take time. And once you have infrastructure
- 6:28that's out there in space, then you know, you've made the
- 6:31upfront investment, then you monetize it, right?
- 6:34And that's hard to again, going back to this whole idea of AI
- 6:38disruption, if you're in finance or, you know, doing legal work
- 6:45or, you know, it's worst, you know, customer service like that
- 6:49is going to be disrupted to a degree and it's going to make,
- 6:51it's going to be harder to maintain some competitive modes.
- 6:55But for some of these harder industries, like whether you're
- 6:58deploying satellites in space or you're building tractors for
- 7:01farms or you're raising animals, like that's, that's only
- 7:04different. And that that is, you know, some
- 7:07of these harder hard industries where you're moving, you know,
- 7:09people say you're moving, moving atoms, that's going to be a bit
- 7:14more difficult to disrupt. And so I was talking with with
- 7:19Cook and Tut this morning and and was just saying that in some
- 7:23respects, like, you know, not only a space, a key focus for
- 7:26the US government and the administration to for, you know,
- 7:30superiority, but we're also we happen to be lucky that we're
- 7:34invested in the sector that is not susceptible to AI
- 7:37disruption. Now can AI, you know, lower
- 7:42timelines in terms of development?
- 7:44Yeah, absolutely. But in order to, you know,
- 7:47you've got to build satellites and then you've got to go deploy
- 7:50them in space and manage them. Those are really hard tasks.
- 7:53They're not ephemeral things that are ideas.
- 7:56You actually have to apply blood, sweat and tears and go
- 8:01build these things. And that's that's a very
- 8:05initially, you know, human intensive process.
- 8:09And then, you know, perhaps you can automate a factory as well.
- 8:12But but yeah, it's it's not something that you can disrupt.
- 8:16And then I think also for AI inputs that go into enabling AI,
- 8:22whether that's data centers, so, you know, solar panels,
- 8:25batteries, memory processors, space infrastructure, these are
- 8:30all things that I think are pretty defensible.
- 8:34And so if this is a concern for you, it's something you know, to
- 8:38keep in mind. But yeah, so with that, I did
- 8:42want to talk about the contract that was awarded today.
- 8:46And so AST was given a $30 million prime contract by the US
- 8:51Space Development Agency for the Halo Europa program.
- 8:54And so this was a $30 million award.
- 8:56This was the first ever prime contract award by AST Space
- 8:59Mobile USA. And so that's an entity that,
- 9:03you know, historically we've, we've actually done, you know,
- 9:08work for the Department of Defense through through other
- 9:12contractors. And then we, we, we went into
- 9:14those as subprimes. And so whether that was
- 9:16Fairwinds, AT&T or, and then there's some unnamed ones,
- 9:20whether, you know, we've speculated that perhaps it's
- 9:22lucky Martin, but this was the one, this was the first award
- 9:25that we received directly as a prime.
- 9:27And so this is a pretty big, you know, milestone for the company
- 9:31and that today's award now brings the total military awards
- 9:36to 11. And so as of the third quarter,
- 9:40you know, we had signed an additional award and that that
- 9:43was 9. And then of course, we got the
- 9:48the Golden Dome MDA, that missile defense program, we got
- 9:53that award, I think it was in January.
- 9:54And so that brought it to 10. And then today's award brings
- 9:57that grand total now to 11, which is great.
- 10:01In terms of timing. I think this award in particular
- 10:04was expected at some point in 2025, but the government
- 10:08shutdown delayed that. And so the reason why I point
- 10:12this out is that, you know, Scott had guided the second-half
- 10:17revenue for the company of 50 to 75,000,000.
- 10:20And I believe, you know, the expectations for the company
- 10:24were that they were going to beat that range.
- 10:25But of course they did come in, they came within the range, but
- 10:28they didn't beat it. They they reported as part of
- 10:31the convertible debt offering of you know coming into the range
- 10:36revenue range of 63 million to 71,000,000.
- 10:40However, if this award had come in on time, then adding 30
- 10:45million to that range would have got you to, you know,
- 10:50second-half revenue of 93 million to 105 million, which is
- 10:54significantly higher than what they had estimated, which at the
- 10:57top end was 75,000,000 at the low end 50.
- 11:01And so that would have been a great headline, I think, for the
- 11:04company to deliver at the high end well, well above that high
- 11:08end of the range. But I think in the upcoming
- 11:12quarterly call, they'll be able to discuss, obviously, this $30
- 11:15million award. And my guess is, you know, and
- 11:18perhaps that's one of the questions I'll ask them.
- 11:21I'll ask if this award was expected and in the second-half
- 11:24of 2025. And if that had been the case,
- 11:27you know, would they have come well above the range, which I
- 11:30think is the case. But yeah, so today's award, as I
- 11:34mentioned, is $30 million in size.
- 11:37Some of the space mob have gone back and looked at some of the
- 11:42the parameters around this this this award.
- 11:44And it seems like for this program for the Europa Track 2
- 11:48commercial solutions, it looked like there was a potential $50
- 11:52million up for grabs to be awarded.
- 11:55And that was to a potential universe of 19 participants of
- 11:59which ASD was one of them. So you know, ASD, space mobile
- 12:03and then eighteen other participants out of that 50
- 12:06million today we got 30 million, which is 60%.
- 12:09So that's a really good sign. That means that the government,
- 12:13the SDA is confident in the company's ability to deliver on
- 12:18the perimeters that they've laid out in in particular, this this
- 12:22award, I believe, is focused on direct to device tactical
- 12:26communications using a commercial consolation.
- 12:29And So what that means is that the SDA is looking to leverage,
- 12:34you know, existing commercial consolations to enable
- 12:38communications with war fighters, you know, various
- 12:41assets. And, and, and in that regard,
- 12:46you know, it's not as if like one company is going to take the
- 12:49whole thing. Ideally, what the SDA and, and
- 12:53this is kind of the mantra for the Department of Defense, What
- 12:56they want to do is create a redundant and resilient
- 13:00infrastructure out in space where if one, you know, 11
- 13:05component is defeated or it's jammed, you can fall back or
- 13:09leverage redundant constellations.
- 13:12And so, for example, you know, you might be using ASD space
- 13:16mobile, you might use Starlink, you also might use Iridium, but
- 13:20you, you want to have multiple sources where even if one part
- 13:24of you know, when one pillar gets taken out that you'll have
- 13:28resilient communications no matter what.
- 13:31And you know, contested area in terms of sizing this opportunity
- 13:36I did, I did post something which, you know, candidly was
- 13:40generated by Chat GPTI kind of went through it and made sense.
- 13:45Just give people an idea though. Let's let's talk about Iridium
- 13:48as an example. And so Iridium is a low band
- 13:53data invoice proprietary system primarily, you know satellite
- 13:58phones, but then they, they also provide some other types of
- 14:01devices for the Department of Defense, but again, very limited
- 14:06low band data type of service. But it's global in nature.
- 14:09Iridium on their current Department of Defense work and
- 14:13and a few other government agencies.
- 14:15I think that's about in total $260 million of revenue a year.
- 14:20So that's huge, right. And then again, this is for a,
- 14:23it's a global solution, but it's limited in terms of data and
- 14:27capacity. And so you know, that's a
- 14:30quarter of a billion dollars in revenue, which is pretty, a
- 14:33pretty hefty chunk of Iridium's annual business.
- 14:36But that's, that's the size of, in the magnitude of, of what
- 14:40we're talking about today. And I think that's kind of a
- 14:41minimum size because we think about what AST can deliver
- 14:46globally. You know, we're talking about
- 14:49broadband data communications between any 3 GPP device, you
- 14:55know, compatible device. And then on top of that.
- 14:58And so that, you know, that could be war fighters, it could
- 15:00be drones, it could be, you know, jets, missiles, planes,
- 15:07whatever you, whatever you, I mean, underwater unmanned
- 15:11vehicles, I mean all these things, right?
- 15:14But that's a really big opportunity.
- 15:16And so today, you know, the the initial award is $30 million,
- 15:20but that can grow in size. But I think Iridium is a good
- 15:23example of just one small use case being worth a quarter of a
- 15:28billion dollars to the US government, right?
- 15:30And so, and this is not me saying like we're going to put
- 15:33Iridium out of business because in actuality, what the
- 15:36government wants is they want Iridium to survive in its
- 15:38current state. They want to continue to
- 15:40leverage Iridium technology, but they want to add more layers.
- 15:43They want to add ASD space mobile, they're going to add
- 15:45Starlink, they're going to add they want to have as many layers
- 15:49of redundancy resilience as possible.
- 15:53And then yeah, that's, that's that's what the the
- 15:57architecture, what what's going to be ideal for this company or
- 16:00sorry for the for the Department of Defense, but again, a 1/4
- 16:04billion dollars for that particular application.
- 16:07Just imagine like what could that mean for AST that can
- 16:10address 10 different potential use cases for the Department of
- 16:14Defense, right. And so let's just say like three
- 16:18or four of those use cases are worth a quarter billion a year.
- 16:21That's a lot of revenue. So I hope that gives people you
- 16:24know some sense of of the sizing.
- 16:26But going back to the potential award sizes for this particular
- 16:31Halo European Europa Track 2 program prototype was $30
- 16:36million which we got awarded and then you have the opportunity
- 16:42for additional task orders. And So what that means is, you
- 16:47know, an opportunity that's 10s of millions to low, hundreds of
- 16:50millions of revenue. And so that could be more demo
- 16:53work, more mission threat, you know, threads, more capacity
- 16:56buys. These are an expansion of
- 17:00capabilities for for the system. And that's something that I
- 17:03think Scott has referred to, you know, the military business
- 17:08being on the order of potentially hundreds of
- 17:10millions. And you know, and my guess when
- 17:12he says that is probably to $300 million in size for this coming
- 17:15year, but that's where that would be the next order for
- 17:20this, this award. And then you transition to the
- 17:25proliferated war fire structure, which you know, if the SDADOD
- 17:30decides to utilize AST. And let's see here I'm just
- 17:36looking at my notes, you know, that could be something on the
- 17:39order of hundreds of millions of revenue.
- 17:42And I, I tweeted about this. So if folks want to go back for
- 17:45reference and then eventually once the consolation's up and
- 17:48running and if the if the company is and this is where you
- 17:51get to the Iridium kind of state where you're selling capacity as
- 17:56a service, that's where you can get into the realm of
- 18:01possibility where the DoD, you know, grants a multi year multi
- 18:06billion dollar type of contract. And so, so yeah, we're, we're
- 18:09pretty early, but obviously with 11, you know, military awards in
- 18:14the hopper, we're we're going the right direction.
- 18:18And so again, I, I think also as part of this too, I mean,
- 18:23there's a lot of different kind of, you know, angles again, the
- 18:2711 different awards. And I'll talk about Golden Dome
- 18:30a little bit, but it's not going to be a winner takes all.
- 18:33Like there's going to be multiple players and it's going
- 18:36to be big, right? Let's see.
- 18:39So I did tweet before that this award in particular is separate
- 18:44and in addition to our, what we received for our, we got the
- 18:48designation for Golden Dome previously.
- 18:50And so just for people's edification, SDA Halo is
- 18:54actually part of Golden Dome. It's under Golden Dome, the
- 18:57umbrella. However, the award that we
- 19:00received today is separate from the MDA shield that we were able
- 19:05to bid on. And that was, I think that was
- 19:07announced back in January. So so that's, you know, this is
- 19:12separate and the, you know, there's been a few people who've
- 19:16written about MBA Shield and what that can mean from a
- 19:20quantitative perspective in terms of dollars.
- 19:23And so that that's separate as well from the third or I guess
- 19:27the second Golden Dome area, which we think we have relevance
- 19:31and we'll probably get an award. And I think space Mob are our
- 19:35batting average we're calling these is pretty high.
- 19:37I think it's been 100 just the time he's been off.
- 19:41But but I think the the either MD Golden Dome noble potential
- 19:47ward in particular that addresses a call by the US
- 19:51government for space based sensors and integrated non
- 19:54kinetic and electronic warfare. And obviously we fulfill all
- 19:59those areas which is space based sensors and and of course
- 20:02electronic warfare jamming. And it was interesting because
- 20:07there was AI guess the, the budgets came out today for NDAA
- 20:12and it looks like I just highlighted 2 sections in this
- 20:16tweet. But that air moving target
- 20:17indicator satellites, that's about $2 billion that's been
- 20:20allocated. And then space based sensors is
- 20:22$7.2 billion. And by the way, like the FY 2025
- 20:27allocation versus 2026, there was zero there.
- 20:30There was zero budget dollars allocated to these two areas.
- 20:34And all of a sudden now we've got $9.2 billion of potential
- 20:39awards to go after for AC space mobile.
- 20:42And so, and I, I, you know, it's, I, I keep saying this and
- 20:47you know, I, obviously the macro backdrop is, is tough and
- 20:50people, you know, there's a lot of volatility, but don't ever
- 20:54think it guys, it's not that hard right when it's about to
- 20:58start this space. The Department of War CTO
- 21:01tweeted out this, this this tweet that's that says orbital
- 21:05supremacy when satellited time powered by the arsenal freedom
- 21:09like U.S. government is telling us to our face that this is
- 21:14where the dollars, this is where the interest everything is
- 21:17going. And yeah, keep it simple.
- 21:20Like this is, you know, AST clearly 11 awards like we're,
- 21:25we're, we're well positioned and there's over $9 billion of being
- 21:29thrown, you know, being thrown at just one year's budget.
- 21:33Yeah, the company is, is, I mean, it was funny, I guess the
- 21:37other day someone on Twitter was saying AC space mobile is not a
- 21:41defense stock. They are that the company is
- 21:44we're getting awards left and right and we're well positioned
- 21:47for Golden Dome and and proliferate Warfire and all
- 21:51these different, you know, programs.
- 21:54I don't, I don't know what else to say about that.
- 21:56But anyway, but yeah, so today just builds on that.
- 22:00And again, we're out at 11, 11 awards, many of which can grow
- 22:05to hundreds of millions in size. And yeah, we're, we're on a good
- 22:09trajectory. I mean, as we've stated before,
- 22:12FM 1 and FM 2 are Halo satellites and they demonstrated
- 22:17they, they will demonstrate additional capabilities, which
- 22:20then will lead to more awards. And of course we've got our
- 22:22Block 1 satellites and Blue Walker three that government is
- 22:25testing with. And so this year is going to, is
- 22:28going to be set up for a tremendous, you know, breakout
- 22:32year, I think for the company. But yeah, I, I think I will also
- 22:36mention, you know, the setup as we head into the Bluebird 7
- 22:41launch, which I think it's going to happen.
- 22:43My guess is like March 6th, March 7th, March 8th, March 8th.
- 22:47The unfortunate news with Artemis, that skinny blade that
- 22:50that frees up the potential timeline for Blue, Blue Origin,
- 22:54New Glenn 3 and Bluebird 7. So I think we are probably going
- 22:58to get a lunch in early March. And so I'm very bullish about
- 23:02set up for the stock even against this crappy backdrop.
- 23:06But you know, we'll also get a fourth quarter update in on
- 23:09March 2nd. And then there's a number of
- 23:12folks in space mob who are pretty bullish about a multi
- 23:16Bluebird satellite batch delivery which will be coming up
- 23:20soon. And then, you know, we've got in
- 23:23the hopper we've got with the FCC, you know, our, our U.S.
- 23:27market application that's pending and can be granted any
- 23:30day. And then another big one is, you
- 23:34know, this Golden Dome noble program, which there's no
- 23:38definitive timeline as to when that's going to be awarded, but
- 23:41it can be awarded at any time. And as we know, the, the Trump
- 23:46administration wants to have Golden Dome up and running and
- 23:49deployed before the end of his term.
- 23:51And so if you're going to do this, you need to move quickly.
- 23:55So, so yeah, that's that's about it.
- 23:58Those are my comments. I also, I need to update the
- 24:02Catalyst tracker because we just got another award.
- 24:06So that list will grow even longer.
- 24:10But but yeah, that's that's kind of all I had.
- 24:13I think today, obviously, you know, a very depressing day for
- 24:18the market, but some really great news.
- 24:20And, and it's kind of funny because I think the company, the
- 24:24stock price has been kind of kept, been kept artificially
- 24:28down by all this negative macro backdrop.
- 24:31But then, you know, once things, once we get a launch date set, I
- 24:34think all bets are off. Like, you know, I, I posted an
- 24:38update today, We just look on the short interest and you know,
- 24:41we were back up to pretty high levels here even even though the
- 24:45stock prices come down, which would suggest that convertible
- 24:48Arbs should be covering some of their deltas and should be so
- 24:51they should be less short. It looks like we're more guys
- 24:54are short because we're at what 47.8 million shares compared to
- 24:57a low of let's. See 39 million.
- 25:02Shares as of January 30th. So I think setup is great.
- 25:05Like we're going to have this launch with Blue Origin, New
- 25:08Glenn, It's going to be super high profile.
- 25:10We've got the quarterly update. I think Scott's going to be able
- 25:13to articulate that it had this $30 million word come in on time
- 25:17as they expected, not due to the government shutdown.
- 25:20Then they would have come in well over their guided revenue
- 25:24for second-half of 2025. And there's going to be a lot of
- 25:28great updates there. And I think you should expect to
- 25:30get positive production news and potential shipment news as well.
- 25:34So I'm going to end it there. Actually.
- 25:37Let me see before I end it, let me just look and see if there's
- 25:41any comments or questions. Wait a second, look here.
- 25:52Well, I think I see. Three comments and one is thank
- 25:55you and the other one is telling me that the time is off.
- 25:58All right, so I'll end it there. Thanks everyone for joining.
- 26:01And yeah, an exciting day. We've got our first contract
- 26:05award as a as a direct prime contractor, which is huge and I
- 26:10expect more news to come. And so everyone hang in there.
- 26:14I know this market volatility sucks, but when when market
- 26:19stabilize and we get some updates, it's going to be
- 26:22explosive. So take everyone.
- 26:25Thanks for listening. To the AST Space Mobile podcast,
- 26:29if you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
- 26:32podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
- 26:35media, or leave a rating and review.
- 26:37To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
- 26:41sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
- 26:44next time. Or doing something very.
- 26:49Very big and I think with this technology we can really affect
- 26:53billion lives. AFT space globally is the only
- 26:56company that has good technology to deliver cellular mobile
- 27:00connectivity directly from faith to do everyday.
- 27:04Smartphone. People will.
- 27:05Just basically. Turn their phone and be seamless
- 27:08regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 27:11know that it's connected by satellite.
- 27:13Our role is. To bring this into reality,
- 27:16always in partnership with the enemy.