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Transcript

Astros/Tigers MLB + WNBA Best Bets Tuesday 8/19/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Man with wickends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm I'm going to burn my browins hat man.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. I don't even know what
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: data is anymore.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: could possibly have with you, as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: about this anymore. To the slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: than potentially end it all. Whatever. Everyone, I can't talk anymore.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's towed pack with you.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Oh man, I'm potentially gonna end it all here.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: This is better off dead.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Whatever day it is Tuesday, August nineteenth, one and two.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: On the show yesterday, I shouldn't have added the Cubs
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: in game one. It's the late play that I added
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: during the show. Uh. It was closer than the final
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: score looked. They lost seven and couldn't score, but it
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: was one nothing.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: Pretty deep into the game.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: It was three to nothing, and I think the eighth inning,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: seventh inning maybe so it wasn't really as bad as
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: it looked, but the game just got out of hand
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: at the end. Red Sox Orioles under yesterday was probably
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: one of the worst beats that you'll ever see. I
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: mean that it was looking like my top two plays
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: of the day were both gonna hit easy Baltimore Boston.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: That was a low scoring game.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Man. The game was four to one into the ninth
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: inning and it did not go under the eight and
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: a half. Baltimore put up two runs on the top
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: of the ninth, and then the Red Sox put up
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: two runs in the bottom of the ninth, so four
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: runs scored to the bottom of the knife to get
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: that thing over by a half run. And of course,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: if there were nin's out there, which I don't think
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: there were once the morning began, then it would have
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: actually been a push. But there's absolutely no way that
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: should have lost. That's one of the worst beats that
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: I've had in quite a while, man. I mean that
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: was a completely dead, basically dead nuts under game, and
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: it goes over the total fucking shit. And then I
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: did have a winner on the San Francisco Giants yesterday,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a nice underdog money line win. They had a four
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: to nothing lead after the top of the first inning
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: and then they never scored again.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: But they still won four to three.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: If you were gonna tell me that they weren't gonna
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: score an eight of the nine innings of the game,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I'd be like, yeah, maybe I don't want to do that,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: but weird way to win that game, but it was
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: a winner. Nonetheless, we'll move on to today. There's a
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: lot of baseball today. I'm gonna have four baseball players
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: because I can't. I can't help myself. I'm gonna have
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: two totals, which you probably know which way I'm going
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: on these totals just because of the way that I
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: usually do. I'm gonna have a first five side on
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: a run line, and I'm gonna have a first I'm
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: gonna have.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: A full game. I should say side as well. Let's
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: get into it, man.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: We do have w NBA today, which I don't know
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: what's happening with the Doldo throws.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: This has become a very uninteresting league with no Doldos.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Minnesota New York is the first game up today, which
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: should be a good game by WNBA standards, at least
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: because it may be a finals preview and it is
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: a finals rematch from last year. But Minnesota has won
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: all three matchups with New York this year so far,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: so that does mean that I do think New York
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: should have a little bit of motivation here, extra motivation
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: which I gave out the Liberty in their last game
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: and they could not get it done. They made a
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: comeback after they were losing early. On my ad block
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: software is coming up. Isn't that great?
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: They? What was I saying? The Liberty?
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: They right, they were losing that game early, big time.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: They made a huge comeback. They were almost back in
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: the game at halftime, They had the lead late in
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the game and they still want to lose in the
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: game in the end. And they had just an absurd
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: free throw attempt discrepancy. Minnesota had thirty three free throw
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: attempts and the Liberty had eight. I mean that, I
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: don't think you'll ever see something like that again. I'm
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: just completely biased. Repping is what got that thing blown
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: for me and gave the game to Minnesota.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: I would lean to the Liberty here.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I think it's a triple revenge spot now because they've
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: lost three games to Minnesota. Now Minnesota again, they don't
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: really have as much to play for because the Liberty
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: are now behind Atlanta in the Eastern Conference. Minnesota, there's
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: absolutely no way they're not gonna be the one seed
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: in the West at this point with so much padding
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: that they have over there. So I think it's got
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: to be either the Liberty or you pass the game,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: but I don't quite want to give out a play
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: on it. They're returning home from a road trip, which
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I don't tend to really love. But it is still
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: like a zigzag spot where you think there'd be some
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: like regression here. I highly doubt there's gonna be a
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: huge free throw disparity this time. The Liberty have already
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: flipped from a one point dodge with three point favorites,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: so the money is agreeing with me on that as well.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: I think at three it's a little bit dicey.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: To play the Liberty, though, like I would obviously rather
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: do it a little bit lower of a spread than that,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: but I think the Liberty or the the right way
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: to go there.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: What Ashley Saint Clair What Yeah?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, she's never gonna talk to me anyway, so
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I don't have to worry about that. Andrew Charles, what's
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out. Connecticut at Washington. I
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: mean this basically should be a mismatch because Connecticut is terrible.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: They're the worst seem in the league.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Washington not very good team either, though Washington's still holding
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: on to playoff hopes here, especially if Indiana is now
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: out Sophie Hunningham, in addition to being without Caitlin Clark.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Could be rough times for Indiana there, so Washington does
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: still need to win if they want to try to
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Washington has won three of their last
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: four games. At least they are staying at home. There's
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: not really a whole lot of situational angle to look
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: for here. Connecticut did just play a close game against Indiana,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: lost it, and now they have to go out on
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the road.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: They don't have a whole.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Lot left to play for this season, though, I don't
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: really know that facing Washington is really something that's gonna
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: get them up for a game after they already played in Indiana,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: even though again it was without Clark. Cunningham got hurt
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: in that game. Washington is down from six and a
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: half to six. But I don't really see any reason
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: to really line up on the Connecticut side in that one.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Seattle at Chicago.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Chicago may be getting Angel Reese back in this game,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: got to watch for that. But Chicago hasn't played some
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: really atrocious basketball. They're probably the worst team in the
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: league besides Connecticut.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: They're awful.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: They've lost four games in a row, They got blown
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: out ninety to fifty nine on their home floor last time,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: which debatably, that doesn't mean they should come out with
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit more intensity this time out, because no
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: team wants to lose that embarrassingly. But Seattle is like
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: a really underrated team right now based on what the
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: record looks like. They're below five hundred here, but they're
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: a double digit road favorite here. Seattle has something to
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: play for it because they're in this mix in the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: West here, they're trying to make the playoffs. Seattle is
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: a pretty good team, but they are coming off a
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: few big games in a row, a couple against Atlanta,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: a close game against Phoenix which was a big game
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: as well.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Well.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: They are starting a road trip here though, so Seattle.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is too much of a price to lay,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: though probably still it's down from eleven and a half
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: to eleven. That is a huge, huge number. But Seattle
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: is a significantly better team than Chicago. It is a
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: little bit of a tricky spot for Seattle, though I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: probably wouldn't quite want to do that. But if Angel
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Reese comes back for Chicago and you see this line
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: drop a little bit further, I think it would make
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: more sense to play Seattle because it would be the
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: reverse injured player spot, and that means Chicago has to
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: work their star player back into the rotation and might
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: not play as well.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Angel Reese, she's on the cover of whatever
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: it is.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: WNBA two K twenty six. Atlanta and Las Vegas. This
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: is an interesting match up here. Vegas has been playing
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: some good basketball. They're a pretty good team, but they
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: really took a while to turn it on this year.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: They've won seven games in a row now though, and
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: they're staying at home.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: I think it's still a big game for both teams.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: I think both teams are gonna show up here.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is coming off a win over Golden State, so
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: they're traveling in from the Bay Area basically here, and
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Lanta just took over the top spot in the Eastern
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Conference from the Liberty, so maybe they're gonna be feeling
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit extra high on themselves here coming into Vegas.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Probably would have a slight lean to Vegas just for
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: that reason, but the money seems.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: To be disagreeing. They're down from two and a half
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: to two here.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I mean again, I don't really see an angle for
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: that game either and then Phoenix at Golden State.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Phoenix up from five and a half to six and
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Phoenix is the better of these two teams, and probably
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: fairly significantly so Golden State, especially without Kala Thornton.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: But they've actually still continued.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: To play fairly well without her, even though she is
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: their star player. They'd win four games in a row
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: before they lost that last game to Atlanta, which when
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: you lose a win streak you might get hung over
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit into the next game. But Golden State
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: still playing to try to get into the playoffs here man,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: so it is still a big game for them.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: Phoenix, of course.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I mean they're in second place either time with Vegas
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: right now. They're coming off a big game themselves though
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: over Seattle coming into this one. So I would probably
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: not be laying the points with Phoenix here the line
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: has moved up on them.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: It would probably be.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Taking the points of Golden State or past the game,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: which it's definitely a pass for.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: Me in all these games.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Let's go to MLB here. Oh, I'm getting a phone
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: call here from some women who have never.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Heard of before. Should I pick it up?
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Hello, you're on better off dead here Major League Baseball,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: we have a double header between Washington and Washington between
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee and Chicago. Here. The double header did not happen yesterday.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Is that an evening game got rained out yesterday, so
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: now the doubleheader is today. We're getting some interesting pitching
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: matchups in this double header, man, with.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: Each team in.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Opposing matchups, has a guy rejoining the rotation who hasn't
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: been in the rotation for a while.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: And in the afternoon game, that's going to be on
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: the Milwaukee side.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: If we look at the bullpen you suggest today, I
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: would say the Cubs. Generally, I think the Cubs probably
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen of the two, but they use
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: more of their bullpen yesterday the Milwaukee so it kind
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: of evens out a little bit.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Cubs here at twelve.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Actually Milwaukee's up at tenth right now, ra wise similar
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: eras but I think because of the bullpen usage, I
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: think Milwaukee does have a little bit of a bullpen
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: edge coming into Game one here Cubs. I'll give the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: offensive edge to the Cubs, even though Milwaukee does hit
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: well on the road. I mean, these are two good teams, man,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: but I still think the Cubs, after getting shut out yesterday,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: and they know how far behind they are. Milwaukee's got
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: to be feeling pretty high on themselves here in the Cubs.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: They got to start winning some games here in this division. Man,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So I think the motivation has to be higher on
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the Cubs here. Starting pitching I think probably goes to
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the Cubs in this game as well. Chad Patrick, as
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: I just mentioned, is rejoining the rotation for Milwaukee. He's
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: twenty seven, but this is actually his first major league season.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: He's been doing alright three point five two ERA, one
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: point three whip. He's a little bit worse on the
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: road four point twenty nine.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: He ran the road.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: He did face the Cubs back in June and didn't
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: do really well in that start, give up four and
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: runs at five innings, which isn't that great.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee actually lost six starts.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: In a row of his and then he I guess
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: got he either got injured or he got sent down
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: to the miners.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe they sent him down to the miners.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: But he's back in the starting rotation now after not
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: pitching particularly well.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Those last two starts that he.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Made, he only gave up tour and runs combined, which
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: isn't too bad. So his ERA is still pretty good.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: His numbers against the Cubs, like I said, are not
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: that great. It's mostly that one start that he had
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: twenty one at bats to eighty six batting average nine
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: to nineteen ops.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: So I still don't know if we could really trust Patrick.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I didn't really look at like what he was doing
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: in Triple A if that's where he just was. But
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I think he has the matchup disadvantage here against Matthew Boyd,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: who was having a really good season for the Cubs
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: two point four to six ERA, one point zero two
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: whip really good at home to one point seven to
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: five RA at home.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Pitching well this month as well.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: A two point three seven ERA, sixteen to one strike
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: at walk ratio, allowed three or fewer earned runs and
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: all three starts, although the Cubs somehow lost all three.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: One of those is the play I gave out I
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: think in the Saint Louis game, and they couldn't score
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: any runs in the game for whatever reason.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: They did lose.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: His last start against Milwaukee, the last start of July.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: He didn't do well in that start. He gave up
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: five earned runs and walked five guys against Milwaukee at Milwaukee.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's a bad sign, but I still don't
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: think he is. I mean, obviously I don't think he's
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: bad at all, and I still don't think he matches
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: up that poorly against Milwaukee.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: As you can see, his career numbers.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Is still good despite that bad start against them. Fifty
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: three at bats thirteen to three strike at walker ratio
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: two twenty six average, six forty five ops.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: So his numbers are good. So you know where I'm
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: going with this.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: It's not a play from me, but I am going
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: to lean to the Cubs in Game one here. I
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: don't know why they list that as a writ in game.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: They always list that as a writing game when it's
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: a doubleheader, like the afternoon game usually gets listed as
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: a writing game because I guess probably the game that
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: was scheduled was actually the evening game. But the Cubs
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: were already up big time on the money line for
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty two to minus one forty nine, fifty
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: four percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash coming in.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: On the Cubs. I do agree with the Cubs side.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: The money has come in strongly on them. You could
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: wind up going with like a Cub run line or
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: something like that if you wanted to. I mean, to me,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I think they're the right side. But it is a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: low total down for seven a half to seven, So
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: if you're asking the Cubs to cover a run line,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit of a greater ask when the
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: total is so low. Eighty three percent of tickets on
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: the over, but fifty nine percent of the cash on
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the under. And you know the public's going to come
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: in on an over in a Brewers Cubs game. I mean,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: they know these two offenses are good, so it would
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: be a fade of the public if you wanted to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: go under here. I don't really disagree with the under,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean the bullpen situation, the Cubs will
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: pen a little bit, and then in Game two of
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: this doubleheader, you don't know what the bullpens are gonna
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: look like after Game one, man, So it makes it
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: pretty difficult to handicap the full game here, although looking
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: at the on the surface, the starting pitching matchup looks
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: like it would be in favor of Milwaukee. With Brandon
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: woodroof on the mound. He's doing really well this year
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: since he came back. He was injured for over an
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: entire season. He basically picked back up right where he
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: left off two point six ERA, point seven to four whip.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: He's been really good, one point five ERA on the road,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: also really good. His last start was a little bit weird.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: It was a game where I gave out the Brewers
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: run line in that game and they did win and cover.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: But for some reason, Woodroof only lasted four innings in
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: that game and they took him out after sixty five pitches,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and I don't know if he just jammed the bases
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: and then they got and they took him out, and
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: then the bullpen I guess didn't give up those runs.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened there, But normally he's been
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: going around like the eighty pitch mark the last few starts,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: so I don't really know what that was about. But
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's still won every one of his starts so far.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: That won all seven of them against the Cubs. He
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: has mediocre numbers and ninety one at bats twenty one
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: to ten strike a walk ratio, two sixty four batting
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: average eight oh nine ops, so Woodroff doesn't have the
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: greatest numbers against the Cubs. I still think you have
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: to tilt the scales towards Woodrooff in the second game. Though,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: if you want to look for like Milwaukee first five innings,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: because I think he is better than Jameson tie On
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and he as I mentioned, he's the Cubs pitcher who
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: is now rejoining the rotation.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Is he's been hurt for a while.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: His numbers were okay this year four point four to
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: four ERA, one point one to one WHIP again he's
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: coming off the DL now. He's been better at home
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: three point four to five ERA at home. He wasn't
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: pitching well over his last few starts, so the Cubs
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: lost all three.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: Of them back in late June.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: He didn't go five innings in any of those starts,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: gave up five and eight earned runs in two of
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the three starts, one of them against Milwaukee. By the way,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: he gave up five and runs in that start. Not
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a great sign. Although I looked earlier, his numbers against
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee are actually not bad despite that bad start. One
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty seven at bats against them, a pretty
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: good thirty three to eleven strikeout walk ratio to thirty
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: one batting average a lot in six to twenty five ops,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: so this game. I mean, the matchup numbers almost look
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: like they favorite tie On a little bit. It's a
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: low total here at seven and a half, probably expecting
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: the wind must be blowing in all day at Wrigley.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Because these are both really low totals. I mean, I
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: could see an argument for an under at least early
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: in this game. I mean, I wouldn't really want to
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: risk it right now, not even knowing what the bullpens
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: are going to look like coming into this game.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: But both starters look like they could do okay here.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Even though the matchup numbers don't favor wood Droft, though
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I think I would lean to Milwaukee first five here
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: just because I do think overall he's the better pitcher
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: and tie On you gotta worry about.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: Him coming back.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Line dropped from the minus one thirty to minus one
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: oh five on the Cubs. Milwaukee's public ninety eight percent
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: of tickets. Who would ever think the Cubs would be
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: that anti public? That's crazy, So I don't really want
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: to join the public on this either, though, nine percent
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Milwaukee. Although one of my plays
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: is going to be a player where I'm going with
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the public, It looks like but I think it just has.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: To be done. But anyway, Yeah, that's this game.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Those are the doubleheader two games between Milwaukee and the
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Cubs there. Those are gonna be some of the better
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: games of the day probably, But yeah, that's the way
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: that I look at.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: Both of those games.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: I forget what else I was gonna say on this,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: but I think that's about it. I mean, yeah, if
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: you want Milwaukee, I mean, you are having to join
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: the public. Though it looks like some of the actual
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: money has come in on them as well. Yeah, I
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: mean I think Woodrow overall is a vetter picture. Oh yeah,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: tie On. He is a veteran. Though I was gonna
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: say so, guys that come back from the DL, if
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: they haven't been gone for that long, they're a veteran.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: They are used to it, so it kind of affects
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: them less than like a younger guy that's not really
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: used to returning from injury like that. All right, Houston,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna skip same Lois, Miami, I'm gonna skip.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Those are two in my place. Toronto. At Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: won yesterday.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: They did have Paul Skeens on the mound yesterday and
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: they got the win. So that was kind of a
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: bad spot for Pittsburgh too, in the return home spot,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: but they got it done. Anyway, things may be different
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: this time out because it's not.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: Paul Skien's today.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpens are concerned, Toronto, I believe
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: he used more of theirs yesterday.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: They use three relief pitchers.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh where you're at Pittsburgh also used three, but less usage.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: But I think still.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Toronto has the better of the two bullpens all the
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: where they at here. Have they've fallen off, Yeah, they
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: have fallen off a little bit. Pittsburgh's is still worse though,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: so two kind of not great bullpens here, but I
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: think Toronto has They obviously have the offensive edge here.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: They have the bullpen edge based on what we just
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: looked at, and I think they have the starting pitching
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: edge as well. Max schures are I mean, we know
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: he's old, he's well pass his prime, but he is
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: having a good season. Three point eight three ERA one
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: point seven whip, a little bit worse on the road
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: four point one to three r in the road, but
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: he is pitching well this month, allowing no more than
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: tour in runs in any of his three starts this month,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: including starts against the Dodgers and the Cubs, he has
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: a thirteen to four strike out walk ratio. His strike
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: out rate is definitely down from what it once was
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: during his career, but he's not putting a lot of
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: guys on base right now. He's not allowing a ton
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: of runs right now, so he is in good form
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: and he's stepping down in class after those tough offenses
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: to face the worst offense in baseball, Pittsburgh. Shures are
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: only five of their hitters have ever seen him before,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: and they have eighty at bats against him, and he
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: has a thirty one to four strike out walk ratio
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: against him, which is really ridiculous, a two hundred batting average,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of five to fifty one oh ps. So
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: none of that is Shures are now this year. Where
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: he's worse this year, I would say than he hasn't
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: been in his career. But he's still good enough that
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: I think you can put some weight into these numbers here.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: He does do well against Pittsburgh, so I do think
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: he'll do well again. Mitch Keller is pitching for Pittsburgh.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: He's having an okay season. Four point one to three
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: ERA one point two to seven whip. He is better
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: at home three point eight to nine ERA at home.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: But he hasn't been a good form this month. Man
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: In three starts, he has a seven point nine to
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: eighty RA twelve to six strike a walk ratio. He's
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: had multiple walks in four of his last five starts,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: even though Pittsburgh has won all but one of those starts.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: Somehow.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: But Keller, I mean, he's not in good form right now.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: So Schurzer is in the better form right now. Keller
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: does have decent numbers against Toronto though in his career
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: thirty at bats, not a huge sample size, but seven
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: to one strike a walk ratio, two thirty three average,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: six P fifty eight ops. So this game, I mean,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: this game kind of looks like an under to me.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: I do think Scherzer has the matchup edge of the
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: money's coming in against Toronto down for minus one fifty
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: minus one forty seven. Maybe the professional money thinking they
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: just don't want to lay that much of a price
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: on the ninety two percent of tickets, only eighty six
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: I do think that the stronger play.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: In this game is the under, but the total is
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: already down from eight and a half to seven and
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: a half now, so fairly significant move. There sixty seven
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, ninety eight percent of
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under. I would worry about the
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: bullpens a little bit. If you want to go first five,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: you got to try to find like a four, because
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: you know me, I hate the three and a half
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings just because it's I mean,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: it's not a key number in the first five, but
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: it's just a half run fewer. So I don't love that.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: But I think under generally is the way to look
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: in that one. Mets at Washington. These teams didn't play yesterday,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: so we finally get some teams that were off yesterday.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: Washington last played against Philadelphia, and they're staying at home.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: The Mets remember one on Sunday night against Seattle, a
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: pretty big game, pretty big series in that Little League
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Special or whatever the hell it was when they were
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: playing in the Little League World Series stadium in Pennsylvania.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: They won that game against Seattle. Now they're traveling to Washington.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Now they do have momentum. So starting a road trip
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: when you have momentum that usually is a positive. But
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: will the Mets really be focused on Washington. I'm not
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: entirely sure, man. Although the Mets too have something to
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: play for, Washington doesn't really have anything else to play
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: for except they probably will show up just because it's
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the Mets coming into their house. So I mean, when
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: you don't have anything left to play for in the season,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: one of the types of games you will get up
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: for is a game against a division rival like this,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: So Washington may show up for that reason. Toronto, by
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: the way, they obviously have something to play for us.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: They're trying to win the Al East. So I forgot
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: to mention that. Pittsburgh obviously their season is done, but
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: they may show up again just because they're facing a
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: good team, because you don't have anything else to do, man,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: except play baseball and try to win. So but the Mets,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: they could be in a little bit of a letdown
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: spot because they did win that big game on Sunday night.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Kind of some conflicting variables coming into this one. The
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Mets have the better offense here. The Mets have the
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here. Washington's bullpen is terrible. Both bullpens arrested though,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: because of yesterday teams being off, David Peterson is pitching
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: for the Mets.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: Three point three ERA, one point two eight WHIP.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: I keep saying, I don't think he's as good as
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: his numbers have looked. His R in the road's a
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: little bit worse three point seven to seveny R, and
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: he has actually been worse this month. This month, he
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: is a seven point four ERA and only a sixteen
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: to nine strike a walk ratio, which is really not good.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: The Mets have lost all three of his starts this month.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: He's allowed ten or in runs in his last two
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: games in nine and the third innings, so that's really bad.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: Against Cleveland and Atlanta as well, so those weren't really
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: great offenses either. He's walked multiple guys in four straight starts.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: So David Peterson, he's definitely fallen out of for him.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: And I think some of that regression is actually hitting,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: which I kind of expected because I don't think he's
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: as good as his numbers looked up. Against Washington, his
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: numbers are fairly good though, in seventy six at bats
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: fifteen to five strike a walk ratio to sixty three
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: average allowed six forty one ops. So Peterson has done
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: fairly well against this Washington offense. He's going up against
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Jake Irvin, who is not having a good season five
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: point one four ERA, one point three to eight whip.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: He's better at home though, four point seventy RA at
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: home this month. He hasn't been that great either though,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: nine point four five ERA eight six strike out walk ratio,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: coming off a start where he gave up six earned
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: runs in four innings against a pretty bad Kansas City lineup,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: and he walked four guys in that start, so he's
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: not inform either right now. Both these pictures are pretty
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: out of form right now. Irvin going up against the Mets.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: He actually has good numbers against the Mets, surprising and
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred and sixteen at bats, twenty seven to seven
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, one ninety eight batting average allowed,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: pretty crazy against a good offense like this, and five
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: eighty six ops. So if you like what you're seeing there,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: you could maybe lean towards Washington. Maybe a first five
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: inning run line play maybe or something like that, because
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: you know the Mets are gonna be a favorite on
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: the road.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Here where are they at?
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Mets are down for minus one ninety five to minus
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: one ninety one, sixty eight percent of tickets on them,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: but eighty eight percent of the cash on Washington, And
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: so Washington looks like they're taking a lot of the
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: money here. Again, I think if you want to do that,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: you should leave their bullpen out of the equation because
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: it's so bad. I think maybe a first five inning
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: run line getting Washington is the underdog might be a
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: that might be a way to look in this game.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: An over might make sense as well, because basically the
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: only thing you kind of have against the over really
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: is Mets bullpend not being that bad. But Peterson's in
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: bad form, Irvin's in bad form. I know their matchup
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: numbers don't look that bad. But an over might make
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: sense here. But the money seems to be disagreeing with
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: that total?
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Is it nine? Though?
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: And the books are not going to throw out a
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: total that high unless they think there's probably gonna be
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: some scoring in the game. Sixty one percent of tickets
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: on the over, only fifty percent of the cash on
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: the over.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: But I would not want to be playing an under
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: in that game.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Philly Philly beat Seattle in a very high
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: scoring affair twelve to seven yesterday. Seattle generally has the
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: better bullpen of though Philly didn't use too much of
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: their bullpen yesterday. Seattle's bullpen usage has been a little.
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Bit higher.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Kind of just because of the number of pitches that
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: their bullpen has throwne I'll still give Seattle a little
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: bit of a bullpen edge though, because most of their
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: better relievers is still available for tonight's game. Philadelphia has
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: the better offense of the two, especially at home, so
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: they have that edge, and I think Philadelphie, you got
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: to give him a starting pitching edge too. We have
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: another pitcher returning from the injured list here and Bryce
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Miller returning for the Mariners. He's having a really rough
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: season Man five point seven to three ERA, one point
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: five to four WHIP.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: But part of it was just he was unable to
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: stay healthy.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at his career stats, he's
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: not this bad like He's definitely a decent pitcher, so
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: these numbers don't really tell you how good he actually is.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: But again, really really struggling this season though, and he
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: was really ugly on the road six point three eighty
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: R on the road again. He just hasn't really been
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: able to get any consistency. He's just been injured since
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: earlier in the season. He's been injured this time since June.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: I thought he was injured twice. Yeah, he missed a
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: lot of May, and then he came back at June
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: and just went right back on the DL again.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: So it's been a rough season for him.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Man up against Philly, Let's see what we got going
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: on if I can type it.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: All up against Philadelphia. He doesn't have good numbers either.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: It's a small twenty nine at bat sample, but a
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: three to ten batting average allowed in eight oh.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: Three ops allowed.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Some Miller doesn't look like he has the great matchup
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: numbers here either. It's another situation where what's he gonna
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: do when he comes back from the DL. I mean,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: at this point, I would say he is at least
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: an experienced pitcher because he's been in the league for
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: a few years now, so maybe he is at least
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: used to coming back after some time off and whatever.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: But he might also have a little bit of an
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: adjustment period. Wills, what's up, man, Thanks for hanging out.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Chris ras Sanchez though, who I mean,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Sanchez is having an elite season and for Philadelphia two
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: point four or five ERA, one point zero nine whip,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: really good at home two point three to three ERA
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: at home. He's been really good this month with an
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: eighteen to three strikeout walk ratio one point eight e
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: R and three starts.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: He's allowed.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Three or fewer earned runs in every start going all
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: the way back into May or actually before that, excuse
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: three or fewer except for one start going all the
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: way back. He's only allowed more than three runs twice
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: all season, and he has not allowed more than four
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: runs in any start all season. So Sanchez, yeah, I mean,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: that's elite stuff. Like I said, his numbers against the
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Mariners are not good, but it's only in sixteen at
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: bats and only four hitters. I've ever seen it before.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: Polanco does have a home run off him. They have
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: a three twelve average and nine to thirty eight ohps
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: against him, but it's such a small sample size and
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think they've faced him this year. So Sanchez,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, this year he's turned into like an elite
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: pitcher man. So the smallest sample size that happen in
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: the past, I would not put that much weight into that.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: I think if you're looking at this game, it probably
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: has to be a Philadelphia run line or you just
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: don't play the game, or maybe a Philadelphia run line
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings just so you don't have
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: to deal with Philadelphia's bullpend that really is kind of inferior.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: They're out for minus one sixty five to minus one
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: seventy seven, So even though they're public with eighty seven
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash is
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: also coming out of Philadelphia, so the money seems to
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: be agreeing with Philadelphia there. The total's gone up as
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: well from eight to eight, with a juice on the
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: over eighty six percent of tickets ninety four percent of
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over him If you want to
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: put some stock into both starting pitchers and not have
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: a great matchup numbers here and Philly's bullpen not being
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: that good in Seattle's bullpen having.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: A little bit of an unrest right now or a
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: little bit of more usage than you would want to
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: see out of them, I could see the argument for
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: the over in this game as well. The Mariners. You
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: don't like the Mariners, are you a fan of and
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: they're letting you down.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but that's the way that I look
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: at that game Baltimore at Boston. You know, I'm pissed
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Red Sox could not get it done last night. I
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: didn't really trust Dustin May, but I'm certainly pissed that
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: the under didn't hit as well. So that game couldn't
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: have gone worse for me as a Red Sox fan.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: And giving out the under in that game and the under,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: that loss on the under was one of.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: The worst beats that you'll see.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: Man, with four runs scored in the ninth, they need
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: to send it over by a half run. I mean,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: you gotta be kidding me with that shit. And the
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: game wasn't close at that point either. Really, it was
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: completely out of hand. So just ridiculous. Hopefully the Red
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Sox will actually get a win for my rooting purposes
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: at least because I don't have a play on this game.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: But of course, like I said, Red Sox did lose yesterday.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Baltimore only us two relief pitchers. The Red Sox only
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: used one, so Dustin May did get them deep into
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: the game. Red Sox have the better bullpen out of
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: the two Red Sox have the better offense out of
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: the two starting pitching.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: I don't really see how I could favor the Red
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Sox starter. Here.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: Sugano is pitching for Baltimore and he's a guy that
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: came over from the Japanese leagues. This is his first
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: year in the majors. His season has been up and down,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: but his overall numbers are not too bad. Four point
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: one to three ERA, one point two eight WHIP, maybe
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit high four point three four ERA in
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the road, so he's a little bit worse on the road.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: He was good early in the season when teams really
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: didn't know what to expect because teams had not faced
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: him before, and then it seemed like he hit a
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: bit of a rough patch kind of in the middle
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: of the season. But he's been turning it back on lately.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Over the past month, his team has actually won four
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: starts in a row of his He hasn't allowed more
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: than three runs in any start going all the way
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: back to early July. At this point this month, he
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: has an eleven to four strike a walk ratio, which
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: really isn't that impressive. I mean, he doesn't strike out
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys, but he does have a two
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: point six ERA. He's gone five or more innings in
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: his last four starts as well, so he is back
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: in decent form right now. And the Red Sox have
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: not faced this year, even though he's in their division.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Only Nathaniel Lowe has ever faced him. Low, by the way,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: designated for assignment for whatever reason by Washington. I know
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Washington's out of it, but Low, I mean, he's not
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: that bad a hitter in the Red Sox because they
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: don't have Tristan Cossas, because he has never held. He's
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: injured all the time. Red Sox traded away Blade Johnson
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: or whatever the hell that Blazed Johnson, whatever the hell
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: that guy's name was for just to get Steven Motts
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: in their bullpen. Red Sox figured, hey, why not let's
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: pick up Low and he'll fill the gap at first base,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: which I'm fine with that.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, why not. You could just pick him up
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: off the scrap heap.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: And I think he's a guy with like sixteen home
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: runs this year or something like that, so it's not
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: like he can't hit. I mean, he can hit for power,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: So I'm fine with that Red Sox pickup. But Low
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: was the only hitter who's seen Sugano before, and he's
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: won for three off him, so he must have faced
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Hi when he was on Washington. But then might be
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: an edge to Sugano man, because like I said, when
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: an offense has not seen an opposing pitcher before, that
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: is a bit of an advantage to the starting pitcher.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Walker Bueller is pitching for the Red Sox. Bueller not
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: not a good pickup for the Red Sox.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: I will continue to say that.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, he is not having a good season again.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: He hasn't been good since he came back from Tommy
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: John surgery or multiple of them, whatever it was. He's
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: never gotten back into form after that five point four
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: to three ERA, one point five to five whip this year,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: bad numbers. He is better at home this year four
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: point three five RA, so at least there's that recent
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: form is not great. I mean, he has a three
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: point eight six e RA this month, which looks alright,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: but he has a seven and nine strike a walk RACEIO.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: So it's like, is he really pitching that well? I'm
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: not really gonna say so. I mean, you can't have
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: more walks than strikeouts, that's ridiculous. His name is very
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: appropriate yet again, Walker Buehler. He has multiple walks and
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: four straight starts. His last start in the previous month,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: he walked more guys than he struck out.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: It was against the Dodgers.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, his last four starts have been against Dodgers,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Houston twice in San Diego, so teams that have at
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: least offenses that can hit a little bit, even though
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: San Diego's has definitely been struggling.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Buehler against Baltimore he does have.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Good numbers, though they only have twenty four at bats
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: against him. Carlson has two of them runs often, but
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the rest of their lineup has done not a lot.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: He has a six to one strike a walk racio
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: against him, a two away to average seven to forty
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: oh ps. So Buehler at least has decent matchup numbers
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: against what is a fairly weak Baltimore offense as well.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: So I mean everything coming into play in this game.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: I still think that Baltimore has an edge early in
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: this game. I think they have the starting pitching edge,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: so you could look maybe to grab Baltimore as an
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: underdog early in the game. But I think as the
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: game gets later into the game. If it's a close game,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: I think the advantage shifts to being on the Red
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Sox side.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are up for.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Minus one thirty to minus one thirty three, sixty five
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: percent take it, seventy seven percent of the cash. Some
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: money seems like it is kind of on the Red
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Sox side right now, and also on the under, even
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: though the total has gone up from nine to nine
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: with juice on the over seventy percent of tickets on
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: the over, but eighty percent of the cash on the under.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: So it looks like the under is taking money. I
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: don't think I would want to touch that at all. Man,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: you don't really know exactly what you're gonna get out
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: of these two starters. Again, I think I trust Sugano
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: in this spot where he's an unknown to the Red
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Sauce a little bit more than Bueller here, though, Dalton,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: what's up?
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Man? Maren was gonna lose three in a row.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: So you're you got to you're an Orioles fan though,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: because you have the Orioles avatar. But you think Maren
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: was gonna lose three in a row? They may, I
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: mean they they was the way I forget did the
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Mariners win or lose yesterday.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: I don't even remember.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Uh, Philadelphia won yesterday. So you think Philadelphi's gonna sweep
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Seattle essentially? I mean yeah, I mean, like I said,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia obviously should win the game today. With
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Sanchez on the mound, I don't know what the starting
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup looks like tomorrow.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: But remember Zach Wheeler.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Well don't remember because I haven't mentioned it yet, but
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: if you've been following ESPN and whatever, Zach Wheeler is
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: injured now. So that is a huge blow to Philadelphia's
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: starting rotation. So Wheeler was supposed to pitch in this series.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: He's not going to anymore because he's hurt. And I
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: don't know how serious it is. It was looking like
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: you might actually have to have some sort of surgery.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: So that's really not good for Philadelphia Wheeler. I mean,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: as great as Sanchez has been, I think Wheeler is
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: still their ace. And that one two punch is crazy,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: and if you take one of those guys away, that's
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: a problem. White Sox in Landa is gonna be one
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: of my best bets, so I will skip that for now.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Yankees at Tampa Bang, Neither of these teams played yesterday.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Tampa is returning over from the West Coast, so it's
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Tampa.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: They actually had.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Four series in a row on the Pacific Coast. That's brutal, man,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: and Tampa is out of it. So you're returning over
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: from a long road trip. You have a lot of
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: stuff you might have to get done back in home, man,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: So it could be a distraction coming back home.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: I Mean.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: The one thing that kind of alleviates that concern maybe
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit is that if Tampa's gonna get up
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: for a game, it's off vis gonna be a game
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees. I mean, it's the Yankees coming into
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: your place. So Tampa probably won't completely overlook the Yankees.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: But those distractions I think are still in play for
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: this game here.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Yankees.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: I think the Yankees might have a little bit of
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: an edge in the stadium because it's their spring training stadium,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: so they're very familiar with it. It's just a bizarre situation,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: although I think Tampa was able to play okay against
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: them in the stadium earlier this year. But it is
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: still Steinberner Field where Tampa is playing their home games
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: this year. So the Yankees are very familiar with the stadium.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Yankees again also had yesterday off. They're coming in from
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. They're in the middle of a road trip
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: where they swept Saint Louis, and really they could have
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: lost almost every one of those games against Saint Louis.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: They're all close, but the Yankees did put up some
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: offense the last two games there.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: Yankees obviously have the better offense in this game out
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: of the two teams.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Tampa has the better bullpen out of the two teams
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: starting pitching, I think you probably have to give the
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: edge to the Yankees in this game, though, I think
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: the situation again, like I said, is probably an edge
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: for the Yankees just continuing their road trip with momentum
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: or Tampa having that ridiculous road trip return. Yeah, Big Stein,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: that's right. George Steinbrenner Larry David voicing George Steinbrenner talking
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: about himself in the third person, which I don't remember
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: if because I know George started referring to himself. George
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Costanza started referring to himself in the third person because
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: of Jimmy, because he really liked Jimmy. And then I
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: don't know if that is what made Steinbrenner start referring
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: to himself in the third person.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Is that what happened? I don't I forget. The Jimmy
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: is one of.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: The best Seinfeld episodes though, by the way, great episode
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the Jimmy with Kramer getting to be involved in being
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: a guest of honor at that benefit for handicap people
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: or whatever because they think he's like, yeah, like they
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: think he's retired basically because of all the stuff.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: That's been going on with the Jimmy jump shoes and
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: the Nova Kane that he had for dental work. He's
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: just drooling. Oh my god. That episode is so good.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: Man and Jimmy the third person Olny thinks he's talking
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: about somebody else.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Ostein already did it, Yeah, Jimmy. Yeah. Melton Orme is
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: in that episode right the Velvet Fog.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: He's the the headliner at the at the event there. Yeah, yeah, dude,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: that episode. I want to go back and watch it again.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: That episode has a lot going on. I can't even
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: remember what the Jerry plot line is in that episode,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: but they have all these different plot lines going in.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: There is some Jerry plot line going On in that
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: episode as usual as well. Anyway, Carlos Redon is pitching
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: for the Yankees. Here we have that nice sign felt aside,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: whenever we talk about the Yankees. It's the only reason
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: to not hate the Yankees, though, because obviously I hate
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Otherwise it was a banger, that's right, Carlos Redone,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I think is the better of these two starters. Three
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: point two five v R one point zero six whip
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: good numbers on the season, three point six era on
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: the road is still not too bad. This is a
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: hit or friendly stadium though, remember but so is the
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Yankee stadium. Radon has kind of gotten back on track
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: as last well, at least his last one start. He
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: went seven inninges gave up one on run against Minnesota,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: but they're a bad offense.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: He did hit a stretcher.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: He wasn't doing that well, and he still walked multiple
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: guys in four of his last five outings, which maybe
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: is not the greatest sign. But his last outing was good,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: so maybe he is returning to form here up against
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, he does have good numbers. Of forty eight
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: at bats, he only have eight hits, although three of
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: them are home runs, seventeen to five, strike at walker
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: ratio one sixty seven, batting average six twenty ohps. Excuse me,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: so overall, radon good numbers against Tampa. He's going up
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: against Shane Boz, who I actually think Boz is better
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: than his numbers. Look four point nine to three e RA,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: one point three to three WHIP not great numbers. Boz
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: has definitely struggled in this stadium though, six point five.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: ERA in home.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: He's a lot a lot of home runs here thirteen
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: home runs in sixty three and a third innings, so
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: his home run rate is way higher at home, which
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: is not good Boz. He does strike out a lot
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: of guys though, Man really high strikeout rate even still
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: this month twenty four to six strikeout walk race show
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: in sixteen innings. That's a lot of k's, but he's
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: allowed a lot of runs. He has a seven point
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: three one ERA this month as well, so it's not
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: all good for Boz. He's giving up some hard hits,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: so bo I mean Bozz, I think he comes out
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: and he throws pretty hard.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: He does have the ability to be a really good pitcher,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: though he shows glimpses of it and then other times
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: he's really not good. His numbers against the Yankees are
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: not good though, in thirty eight at bats, six strikeouts,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: nine walks, that's really bad. Three home runs allowed, three
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: sixteen average oneenty twenty six ops. So Boz is on
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: the wrong side of these matchup numbers and on the
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: wrong side of his split here.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: But the money seems like it's coming on the Tampa.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: I don't understand that Yankees down for minus one thirty
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: minus one, twenty eighty six percent of the tickets on them,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash coming in on Tampa. Again,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, I hope it's correct. I mean, with the
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: money coming in the Red Sox and against the Yankees,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: I hope the professional betters have that all correct and
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: that that's what's gonna happen. But I don't know if
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: I would bank on either one of those, man, Obviously,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying that you should. I think I would
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: lean to the Yankees in this game, man, given everything
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: I just told you about this game, although probably I
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: would do first five innings though, because the Yankees bullpen
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: is definitely untrustworthy. So I would say Yankees probably money
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: lined first five innings might be a way to look
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: in this game. The money's coming in the under as well,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: which I don't really get that either. Total down from
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to eight fifty eight percent tickets
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: on the over seventy eight percent of the cash on
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: the under. I mean, yeah, you have rested bullpens here,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: but you could potentially see both starters maybe giving up
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: some runs in this one in my opinion, and both
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: teams are not that bad offensively, especially the Yankees obviously. Yeah,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: so I don't really see the see what's going on
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: with that with the money in this game. Really, I
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: don't really agree with ether market signaling this game necessarily there. Yeah,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: there was one other thing I was gonna own. It's
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly ballpark as well. I think it was
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: the other thing I was gonna say. So, Yeah, I mean,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: obviously that's gonna be a stay away. We have a's
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: at Minnesota. These teams were both off yesterday as well.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is staying at home. They did beat Detroit yesterday, Minnesota,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: both these teams don't really have anything else to play
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: for him, and they're both out of it at this point.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: I forgot to explicitly mention, but Seattle in Philadelphia. Obviously,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: they're both playing for playoff positioning, so they're both motivated
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: teams right now, A's Minnesota. Neither of these teams have
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: a whole lot left to play for. They're just playing
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: out the stretch. The A's just lost pretty ugly to
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: Anaheim and now they're going out on the road, So
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's a more positive spot for the A's
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: getting to going on the road after having a bad
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: game at home. The A's actually play better on the
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: road as well as a team, they're better on the road.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: Both these bullpens stinks, so you have to keep that
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: in mind. These are both these are bad bullpens. Even
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: though they're both rested, they're bad. The A's have a
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: better offense than Minnesota does. Starting pitching, I think the
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: edge has to go to Minnesota because Minnesota's ACE is
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: on them out here. But Jacob Lopez for the A's,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: he's been really good in some casesn't really bad in
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: some cases.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: But Lopez, his overall numbers.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: Are definitely not bad. Three point three ERA, one point
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: one to nine WHIP. He's been surprisingly good at home
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: because he's not a guy that comes down and throws hard,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: so he doesn't really give up at like a ton
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: of power.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: He comes down and he.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Fools guys with a lot of weird breaking stuff, and
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: they really he gets a lot of like swings and
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: misses and he's able to kind of keep the runs
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: off the board in that horrible Sacramento stadium the A's playing,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: so his era is worse on the road, four point
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: two era on the road.
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: He's back in really good for him right now, though.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: He hasn't allowed to run.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: In four straight outings and the A's have won every
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: one of those outings.
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: His last two starts, he has a nineteen to zero.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Strikeout walk Richio this month, twenty four to two and
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: nineteen to two thirds that he's pitch, So after he
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: had kind of a rough July, he's bounced back really
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: nice and he's really in good form right now. Granted,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: those last two starts are against Tampa and Washington, so
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: they're not the greatest offenses, but.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: They're also not the worst.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Going up against Minnesota, we know Minnesota is not a
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: very good offense either. Up against them, they have eleven
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: at bats against him. Larnock does have a home run
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: off him. They have five strikeouts, one walk, two seventy
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: three batting average eight to seventy nine ops.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: Lopez did face them earlier in the season. It wasn't
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: a great outing.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: He only went four and to third, gave up five
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: in runs, but he got tagged for three home runs.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: In that game, and that was in the A's stadium.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: So I actually think he got a little bit unlucky
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: in that game because he had a nine to one
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratiow.
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: So I actually think that.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Outing was not as bad as it looked because the
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: home runs just really kind of did him in. So
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: I actually think Lopez made pitch well and he is
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: really in good form right now too.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: He's up against Joe Ryan. We know, I mean, Joe
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: Ryan is the ace.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: From Minnesota here two point seven to two ERA, point
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: nine to two whip on the season, He's been pitching
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: pretty well recently. He settled down after the trade deadline,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: all the rumors surrounding, oh he might be traded, which
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: didn't happen. He is a little bit worse at home
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: three point oh three ERA, but again this month, since
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: he's settled down, he's been good with a two point
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: oh four ERA sixteen to three strike up walk ratio,
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: including a good start last time out at Yankee Stadium.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: He went six to two thirds, allowed one on and run,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: seven to two strike up walk ratio. I believe I
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: gave on an under in that game. I'm pretty sure.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: So that was a winner for me on the show.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Joe Ryan up against the A's. They have thirty at
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: bats against him. They do have a couple of homers
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: off him. A two sixty seven average, eight to five
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio isn't that great. Eight seventy one ops.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: So he has given up some hard hits and some
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: walks against them. But I'm not really ready to say
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: that Joe Ryan's gonna pitch poorly in this game or
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: anything like that. He did have to pitch at that
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: a stadium that was one of his outings that kind
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: of contributed to those numbers there, and he walked three guys,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: He lasted five innings, picked up a win in that game.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Did give up four and runs though, so it wasn't
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: the greatest start for him. But I would give him
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: a pass for that one because it was again at
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: that a stadium that's just very hit her friendly Ryan's
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: a better form right now. So in this game, I
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: think a first five under is the way to look
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: in this game, man, uh, going with both starting pitchers
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: to actually pitch all right.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't want to do a full game because I really
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: hate both bullpens. The total is up from eight to
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: eight and a half, eighty one percent of tickets on
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: the over, ninety six percent of the cash on the over.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: I don't agree with the money in that one.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: At least you're faining the public if you go under
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: in this game, but I would limit it to the
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: first five innings.
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: That would be my preference. In this game.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the a's as well.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: Minnesota down for minus one forty one thirty five fifty
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: per tickets eighty three percent of the cash coming in
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: on the a's. So the professional money does seem to
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: have faith in the Lopez, which to me that kind
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: of does signal that the under makes more sense in
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: this game, because if you're gonna have faith, like by default,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: in one of these pitchers, it's not gonna be Lopez.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: So if the professional money is saying, yeah, we do
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: have faith in Lopez, that kind of makes me think
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: that both pitchers are gonna actually pitch well on this game.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: So that's my opinion.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: There.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: You're tweaking these damn.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Blue collar tweakers Backbone of this Town, man Low with
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: the under Yeah. Upcoming podcast appearances, not that I'm really
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: aware of. I think Tyler Yanke wants to have me
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: back on his show at some point. Nothing is scheduled though,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: and then I am making random appearances on whatever it
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: is Sunday Chaos, Gray Pills podcast with Jewels and you
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: know all those other guys you you guys know ever will?
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: I mean you know who I'm talking about, all the
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: guys that are on that rat is on it usually and.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: What's the guy's name? Uh? Not nice guy? And who
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: else usually is on that on that show? Connie?
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: Those guys, Yeah, all the those guys. Yeah, that's right,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: ass bunch, and make an appearance on it as well. Yeah,
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: but sometimes I'm on that show.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: Correct. Yeah.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: I was gonna call him conspiracy extremist again, but Connie, Yeah,
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: I saved the best for last.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: When is Cole coming on? I don't know, because I
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: did have Clint on.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have Clint back on the show to break
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: down the baseball playoff picture Cole. I have no idea, man,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: because Cole Cole and his wife are about to have
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: their second baby, which is coming up I think within
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: I would say probably about a month or so that's
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. So Cole is definitely a busy father, and
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: he's doing a lot of job related stuff as well
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: So I don't know.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: And then I may get Auto Dashing on this show
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: at some point, because he well he asked. I was like,
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: all right, yeah, I don't know which sport you would
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: want to talk about, but I might have that guy
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: come on from a punk rock Libertarians.
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: I like Auto, good dude. I'm one of the Maryland guys.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, these guys are in a terrible state, which is
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: probably worse than my state, to be honest.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: And then we have.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: I've been talking, I mean I haven't really been talking
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: to her, but Cheney has suggested doing a UFC show
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: with me, which maybe we should do. But we missed
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: a good main event last time, which I talked about
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: that with Todd Lobson David when they crashed this show
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: last week. I told them I liked Chamaiah to win
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: that by decision, and I was right about that.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: So Zach, what's up, man?
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. I did already talk about the
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Royals and didn't I. Oh no, wait, I didn't.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: My mistake. The Royals are coming up actually now.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: Oh so I think Zach just hangs out, hangs out
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: in your weights until I talk about the Royals, which
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: I'm about to do.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Maryland is awful. This game Texas at Kansas City.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: Here you go, Zach.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: Kansas City won yesterday four to three. They're on a
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: four game win streak. Both these teams are hanging on, man,
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: they're both trying to make the playoffs. Still, as far
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: as the bullpen you suggest today, both bullpens are fairly
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: decent bullpens. I think Kansas City he used less of
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: their bullpen than Texas did. Texas is the better of
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens though, so a little bit of usage
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: on both sides, not extreme usage. So I think you
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: could still say both bullpens are all right in this game.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: They're both decent bullpens. Texas is is good. I would say.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching matchup. Merril Kelly at pitching for Texas. They
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: got him at the trade deadline. He's having a good
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: season three point three six ERA one point zero nine whip.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: He came over from Arizona, so I think he's probably
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: excited to at least be on a team that might
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs. He's been better on the road this
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: year too, three point oh six yr on the road.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: He had one bad start with Texas, but two pretty
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: good ones, so including his most recent start where he
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: got pumped up. I think to face his former team.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: Even though his team lost the game.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: It wasn't his fault.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: He showed up and pitched well against his team that
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: traded him Arizona. He went six innings, five strikeouts, one walk,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: touring runs allowed.
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: So I think he's in good form, even though he did.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: Have one bad start in the mix here against Philly,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: and we know Philly is a good offense, so overall,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: Meryl Kelly, Yeah, he's in alright for him Here the Royals,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: we know they are a weak offense. Here, both these
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: offenses are very weak. I don't even know which one
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: of these offenses is worse, to be honest, they're both bad.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Texas is actually the worst one based on ops. Here,
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: these are bad offenses, man, Meryl Kelly does have good
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: numbers against Kansas City and sixty six at bats, twelve strikeouts,
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: five walks, but all five walks in all four home
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: runs He's a lot of all come from Yazz, so
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: YEAHS has seen a lot of them because Yaz was
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: on the Giants so they were in the same division.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: But the rest of the Royals lineup really has done
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: nothing against Kelly. He's held them to a one to
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: eighty two batting average overall, including all the Yazz and
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: six seventy nine ops. Yeaz still doesn't have a good
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: batting average against him either, So I think Kelly.
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: Does line up to pitch well in this game.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Seth Lugo, and my personal preference
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: in this game is an under. But Lugo is really
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: the reason why I'm worried about the under here.
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: Man. I know Lugo is a guy that.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: I've kind of likes to play unders in his games,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: but he's just in really bad for him right now.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: I know the advanced analytics guys have been shitting on
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Lugo for multiple years now, saying that he was gonna regress,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: and he at least has over the last couple of
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: starts athough for me, I think his numbers overall they're
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: not that bad. Three point seven to seven e RA
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: A one point two to four whip. Say what you
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: will about the advanced analytics, though, I think Lugo he
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: is still not that bad of a pitcher in my opinion.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: At home, he's been better three point three three ERA,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: but his last couple of starts have been really rough,
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: including a home start, one on the road one at home.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: He's failed to go five innings in all three starts
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: this month. He's walked multiple guys in five straight starts.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: Including four or more and three or four exactly in
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: three in three of his last four starts. Last two starts.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: To give up thirteen in runs in eight innings against
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and Washington. So not really good offenses either, very bad.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: I think I had an under in the Minnesota game
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: and obviously said Lugo ruined that one for me. There, man,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: he has ten walks only six strikeouts this month, so
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: he is definitely pitching really, really poorly right now. But
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: it is possibly gets back on track here because Texas
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: is a very bad offense and he's been good against
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: them in the past.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: They're only four for.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: Thirty nine against him, with one extra Mase hit a
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: double from Sieger, fourteen to three, strikeout walk ratio one
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: to oh three, average allowed three to fourteen ops. So
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Lugo has been good against them. So I think maybe
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Lugo does round back in a form a little bit here.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: My opinion in this game is under the total in
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: this one. Where are we looking at this here? It
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: is totals drop from nine to eight and a half.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: We have fifty sixty six percent tickets on the over,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: only fifty seven percent of the cast on the over.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: I just worry a little bit about how bad Lugo's
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: forum is right now, but I do agree with the
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: under in this game. Otherwise, uh so, that would be
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: the way I would play this game, if I was
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: gonna play it.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: It's close to being a play for me, to be honest.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: Under in Texas Kansas City, Lugo, I mean Kansas City
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: down for my just won twenty five to minus one
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: zero five on the money line, So the cash heavily
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: coming into Texas, eighty three percent of the cash on them,
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: Tickets on Kansas City. I don't disagree with that. Either.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: I think Merrill Kelly because he is in the better
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: form right now. I would lean to Texas as well,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: and I think I give their bullpen a little bit
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: of an edge over Kansas City's as well. We look
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: at their bullpens really quick. Texas fifth and bullpendy ra a.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is still not.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: That bad though at eighth.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: But yeah, slight lean to Texas there, but I think
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: the better way still is the under in that game.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: All right, and I'm gonna skip Well, we already talked
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: about the Milwaukee Chicago doubleheader.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: Actually La Colorado.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Man, this is gonna be a long video, huh, because
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: I still have to talk about I'm gonna talk about
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: four plays that I have. Colorado got the win yesterday.
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: I mean La was coming off I think a pretty
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: big series. Uh, then one on a walk off on
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: an error I guess by the Dodgers.
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: I didn't see it. But Rock has won four games
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: in a row. Now.
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: I don't expect it to last. Obviously, I don't expect
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: them to win this game here today. I though the
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Dodgers would be able to put up more offense yesterday,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: which they did not. Colorado was so bad that the
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: Dodgers still have the better of these two bullpens. Colorado,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: they used more of their bullpen as well. Yesterday Dodgers,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: even with Yamamodo on them on they lost the game,
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: but they only used two of their relief pitchers. Dodgers
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: don't have a very good bullpen, but it is better
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: than Colorado's. So Dodgers have the upper hand with the bullpen.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: They obviously have the better hitting, and again I would
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: say they have the better starting pitcher as well, with
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Emmett Shean, who he's a young guy with some very
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: high upside. Man, he's got some really good talent. He
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: could throw hard. I like Shean a three point eight
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: six ERA one point two to three whip. Not bad
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: numbers on the season, a little bit worse on the
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: road to the four ERA on the road. I don't
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: think he's pitching corps fields, so that is gonna be
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an environment shift for him. And
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: he didn't do well in his last start to give
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: it five and runs against Anaheim, but he did have
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts two walks. Wasn't a terrible start for him.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: I think he kind of gave up some advent. He
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: just hitting to Anaheim there, So I'm not ready to
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: say he's just in like awful form or anything like that.
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: He'd given up nowhere and runs over his prior to starts,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: although one was a shortened start against Cincinnati. But overall,
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: I do think she And is good and he has
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: the ability to be really good.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Colorado's only two for nine off in lifetime with four
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: k's and no walks so and no extra base hits.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: So I do think she and he has kind of
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: an unfamiliarity edge coming into this too, and he is
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: the more talented pitcher, so I would lean towards she
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: And having the upper hand in this pitching matchup against
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: Austin Gomber, who still doesn't have a win this year.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: His numbers are bad six point seven five ERA one
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: point six'. One we have bad, numbers. Man he's been
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: worse in courtsefield as. Well seven point one ONE. Era
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: there not good this month at all, either seven point
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: eight EIGHTY ra a ten to five strike a walk.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: RATIO i wasn't good in his last start the prior month.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: Either the last couple of starts he's. Bad we get
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: it up against The dodgers's numbers aren't very good, either
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: and they have a lot of experience against. Them one
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: hundred at, bats fifteen to ten strike a walk race
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: here to ninety batting, average nine oh five ops allowed
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: to The. Dodgers so The dodgers seem to have every
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: advantage that there is. Here the money is kind of
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: coming in against them a little. Bit they're a very
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: public road. Favorite at minus two, sixty, obviously you cannot
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: lay a price like minus to, Sixty so you gotta
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: find other ways to try to play The dodgers. Here
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: if you want to go with the run, LINE i
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: might not really TELL i wouldn't really say to not do.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: That eighty two percent of tickets eighty percent of the
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: cash on The, dodgers BECAUSE i do think they have
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: the edge all around, here and they do get nine
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: at nine innings to bat here by default because they're
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: on the.
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: Road the total has gone up from eleven and a
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: half to.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Twelve although eighty three percent tickets only seventy eight percent
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: Over we know the course field does a lot of
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: high scoring.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: GAMES i don't know IF i really bank on, that
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: BECAUSE i do think she and might pitch well. Here,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: pete what's up, man mcgahas or what's up. Mcgaha you
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: have a parlay With dodgers in their team total over
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: four and a. Half So dodgers team total four and a?
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: Half is that their.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: First five inning team? Total that is.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: Crazy high, man and you're Taking dodgers' first five money,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: LINE i assume is what you mean? THERE i mean they're.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: Correlated So i'm not a parlay. GUY i don't think
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: you ever get good enough numbers on the. Parlay but
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: that's full. Game oh so you must have it's an alternate.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Line you must have knocked it like over team total
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: over four and a half in the full, game like
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: the actual line on it's PROBABLY i would assume like
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: six and a half or something or seven, even but
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: you're able to knock it. Down like, basically what you're
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: saying is it's like a higher price to pay for
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: the team total over four and a. Half it's an alternate,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: line but because you parlayed these two like strong favorite,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: lines that knocks the overall price.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: DOWN i see what you're.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Saying i'm surprised that the odds makers let you do, that,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: though because obviously those two bets are. Correlated so a
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: lot of, times the odds makers will not let you
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: do a correlated parlay like that.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: Full. Game yeah so, INTERESTING.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, YEAH i mean, AGAIN i don't like, parlays
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: SO i don't think the books give you good enough.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Odds but when it's, CORRELATED i dislike it. Less at Least.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: FanDuel they're gonna start kicking you. Off, man if you
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: start making correlated. Parlays they want you to do uncorrelated.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Parlays that's why they always pump up the parlay's like hey,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: man play, this you, know public favorite and this public
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: favorite and these two independent.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: Results parlay those.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: Things that's what they want you to do because that's
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: how they make. Money but, yeah BUT i don't hate
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: that particular, parlay even THOUGH i hate parlays in. GENERAL
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: i do THINK i was gonna, say for, ME i
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: would think either one of your two. PLAYS i, think,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: well not the first, half BUT i would say Either
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: dodgers run line Or dodgers over their team. Total full,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: GAME i think might be the ways to look at this.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: Game or even THOUGH i thought The dodgers would score
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: more runs, yesterday ALTHOUGH i wasn't really as sold on
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: The dodgers winning the game by margin. YESTERDAY i think this,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: GAME i am more sold on. That, yeah that's. Bad
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: they won't like nuke your. Account, really they'll limit you
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: to one dollar or, something which is. Bullshit it's basically
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: like nuke in your. Account but they get to say
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: we don't remove. Anybody yeah fuck. You, yeah ten leg,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: PARLAYS i, mean that's. Everybody it's like playing the, lottery,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: Man you're trying to get lucky and hit a big pretty.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Much i'm gonna Skip cincinnati and ANAEIM i gonna get
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: to these best bets, though, Man cleveland At arizona because
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: that game is one of my best bets as, well
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: even though that's the one Where i'm going with the,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: public BUT i just think you gotta do. It cleveland At.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: Arizona arizona's lost four games in a row, now including
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: losing the first game of this. Series arizona is the
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: better offense of these two. Teams they have the worst
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: of the two. Bullpens cleveland used four relief pitchers, Yesterday
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: arizona only used, two So arizona. Does maybe their bullpend
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: disadvantage kind of gets a little bit negated by the
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage And, arizona LIKE i, said definitely does have
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: an offensive edge.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: Here starting.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: PITCHING i don't really love either of these starting pitchers
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: at this. Point Man Channer biby for The Cleveland, indians,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: yere he's not having a good. Season he was much
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: better last. YEAR i don't know if it's just that
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: this has been all the gambling going. On it's just
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: been a bad season for The indians in. General bad
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: season For. Biby four point five to FOUR era and
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: one point two to NINE. Whip just kind of a,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: bad unfocused, SEASON i. Think and he's been bad on
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: the road five point five nine ROAD. Era hasn't been
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: good this, month seventeen to ten strike a walk, ratio
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: multiple walks in all starts for five point seven to FOUR,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: era even though Somehow cleveland has won seven starts in
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: a row of his and he's been pretty bad in
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: every single one of those. Starts so it's absolutely ridiculous
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: how much run support he's getting because he has not
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: been that good in any of those starts at. All
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: his numbers against the D backs are actually fairly. Good
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: they don't have a ton of experience against. Them thirteen at,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: bats two thirty one batting average allowed six to eighty
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: three oh, ps So biby does do fairly well against
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: the D backs and they don't have a lot of
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: familiarity with, him at Least Eduardo rodriguez pitching For. Arizona
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: he's a guy who used to be a really good,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: pitcher And i'll always remember. Man he was on The
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: Red Sox World series team in twenty, EIGHTEEN i, believe
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: but those days are. Gone he's Had Tommy john. Surgery
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: he's not doing well since then for the most. Part
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: five point FOUR era one point six to four whip
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: this year not. Good he's been worse at home five
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: point seven to THREE era here it's a very hitter friendly.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: Stadium he's coming off a good start at Course, field
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: when seven innings gave him one in, run six, strikeouts one.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: Walk that's, good but the prior three starts were not very.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: Good he allowed five and runs and two of the.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: Three he's been bad for kind of like over a
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: month at this. Point except for that one really good
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: start in his most recent, start the rest of his recent,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: starts for.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: The most, part have been.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: Bad even when he hasn't allowed that many, runs he's
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: walked too many, Guys so.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: E rod still not in good form right.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: Now numbers Against cleveland all, right And cleveland's a very
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: weak offense seventy five at bats against some seventeen to
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: five strike a, walk, racious two forty batting, average seven
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: to fourteen.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: Ops so E, rod, YEAH i, mean he does have decent.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Numbers both of these starting pitchers may have an okay
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: match up, here BUT i don't know THAT i would
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: bank on. It.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: Man arizona is getting the money the rougher minus won
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: ten to minus won twenty. One fifty nine percent of
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: tickets are On.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: Cleveland ninety three percent of the cash though On, Arizona
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: so the public actually Wants cleveland.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: Here if you do Like.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland the one thing is, they at LEAST i think
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: still were kind of in the playoff hunt, here Whereas
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: arizona is definitely. Not so they might be a little
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: bit of a motivational edge. There but other than, That
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: i'm not totally seeing. It byby we know he's bad
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: on the, Road he's been in bad. Form erod at
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: least had one good recent, start so you could debate
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: that he's in better form. HERE i actually think in
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: over it might be a better way to look, here.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Though the total is down from nine and a half
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: to eight and a, half so it's a decent. Number
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: on the total eight percent of the tickets on the
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: over and sixty percent of the cash on the.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: OVER i think.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: Both starting pitchers are fairly, untrustworthy even though their matchup
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: numbers look all. RIGHT i don't love either bullpend really.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Either Obviously cleveland does not have a good, Offense arizona.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: Does but to, ME i think an over kind of makes.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: Sense in that game you Parlayed. Royals The royals game
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: under in The.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: Reds money line, yesterday all?
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: Right, nice, Yeah, ANAHEIM i think it was returning over
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: from a road, trip were they? Not? YEAH i was
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: kind of an if he spot for them. YESTERDAY i
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: Guess cincinnati was some motivation, there all? Right and THEN
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: i forget WHAT i said about that game. YESTERDAY i
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: forget what the.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: H The Royal royals.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: UNDERS i, mean rollers offense, sucks, Man both those offenses
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: Sucked texas And Kansas, city so probably not a bad
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: way to go. Either San francisco Had San. DIEGO i
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: gave Out San francisco on the show. Yesterday they got
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: the job.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: Done they hung on for the. Win.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: Yesterday San diego's lost four games in a. Row but
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: remember yesterday they were returning over from a road trip
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: and they had a big weekend series or The. Dodger
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: SO i Think San diego might bounce back. HERE i,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: mean when you return, home it's a difficult. Spot it
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: was kind of a hangover spot for. Them you played
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: poorly in that. Game of, that you do tend to
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: bounce back a little, Bit So San diego might have
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: a better go of it this time.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: Around.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: Here they have a way better pitching matchup this time,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: Too So San diego is a massive, favorite SO i
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: kind of doubt that they lose this.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: Game both bullpens are. Good wasn't a ton of usage
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: on either side yesterday, either so we have two, good
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: fairly rested bullpens.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: Here offense, Obviously San francisco's offense is. Bad San diego
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: is really not that great, either but better Than San
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: francisco's starting. Pitching Kaiwai tang is still in the rotation
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: for The giants right, now AND i don't really know.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: Why nine point Nine era one point nine whip obviously
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: very bad. Numbers thirteen point Five roadyra so far really.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Bad his numbers are being skewed by his last. Start
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: but by the, way guess who that start was. Against
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: that was Against San.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: Diego he gave up six.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: Earned, runs four, walks no strikeouts him one to two
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: thirds innings Against San. Diego So San diego just saw
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: him and he had his worst outing of the young
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: season of his. Year So San diego should have a
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of an extra edge because they just faced
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: him and he was really bad in that. Game So
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: tang he could definitely potentially give it up in this.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Game man sixteen at bats now San diego's five, walks
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: one strikeout against, him four to thirty eight batting average
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: allowed one thousand and one to seven y oh. Ps
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: very very. Bad he's going up Against Nick. PIVETTA i
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: was having a really good season For San diego two
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: point eight SEVEN era point nine to FIVE wi and
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: he's been particularly good at home two point four to ONE.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: Era here at, home.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: He's obviously the pitcher is in the better form of
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: the three point TWO era this month across three, starts
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: thirteen to four strike a walk ratio is only. Bad
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: start in the mix was against The Red, sox who
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: are a pretty good. Offense My Boston Red sox And
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Nick povetta's former team had good, starts including his last.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: Against The San francisco.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: Team five, strikeouts one, walk wonner and run allowed at
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: six to two thirds. Innings, yes that does Mean San
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: francisco is recently familiar with, him which tends to be
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: an edge for the. Hitting But Nick, Pavena, MAN i
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: mean he's so familiar To San, FRANCISCO i don't really
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna Help San francisco that. Much his numbers
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: against them are not, amazing but they're, decent and eighty
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: two at bats twenty five to six strike a walk
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: ratio is good two fifty six batting average allowed seven
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: to seventy oh. Ps so THE ops is a little
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: bit high because he's allowed some extra base hits in,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: there but, overall Any pavetta is the better. PITCHER i
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: just don't see how you could possibly try to play
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: The giants in this, game, man even THOUGH i know
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on that. Side San diego
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: is down for my two thirty five to minus two oh. Eight,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: maybe thinking, well both offenses are bound enough that it
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: could be a low scoring, game and that means that
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: there's more value on the. Underdog eighty two percent of,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: tickets only fifty eight percent of the cash.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: On San, diego so they're a public.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: Side money coming into the under it looks like as
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: well a little bit seventy Nine senate tickets only sixty
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on the Under there's no
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: WAY i would trust that BECAUSE i don't Trust. Tangs
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: so to, ME i, think, really if you want to
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: play this, game you could really isolate the starting pitching
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: matchup and Go San diego run line first five. INNINGS i,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: MEAN i, AGAIN i see no way of Playing San
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: francisco in this. GAME i think the matchup edge is
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: very strong in the starting pitching matching For San, diego
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: and then kind of.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: The bullpen situation is a bit of a.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: Wash And San diego does have the better offense, too
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: so that money coming in At San, FRANCISCO i don't understand.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: It Modern what's up man college? FOOTBALL i have not
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: really talked about it. YET i was kind of considering
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: maybe doing one Where i'm just gonna talk about like
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: overall season, predictions BECAUSE i did do THE nfl one
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: With clint AND i did a HUGE nfl Win totals
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: episode THAT i did on my, Own so if people
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: are interested in, that MAYBE i could do. That but
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: college football is about to, start, man it's starting a
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: week zero is On. Saturday it's starting On, saturday And
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: i'm usually have like maybe one Play week. Zero we'll
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: see IF i have. One last YEAR i Had Georgia
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: tech in that upset Of Florida. State that was a
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: nice way to kick off the college football season for.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: Me last YEAR i had a good college football, season,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: man AFTER i had a couple of bad ones in a.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: Row my college football season was really good last, year
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: especially kind of towards the later. HALF i had an
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: insane run in college. Football like later in the season
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: THERE i went, ON i know some CRAZY i don't.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: Know people might remember what it. Was all the episodes
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: are still, up you can go. Back or do you
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: THINK i had like A i don't, know like a
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: seventeen and two? Run maybe with ALL i do all
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: college football sides, Too but, YES i will be talking
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: about it every. Week i'm gonna have college. Football Friday
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: nights is WHEN i do The College Football. Show USUALLY
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: i just talk about The saturday slate in pretty decent
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: detail all the big games at, least and what the
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: games are That i'm gonna recommend betting.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: On so, yeah look.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: Forward to that and Maybe i'll try to get a
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: college football prediction episode.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: In, Yeah. KAIWAI i mean he's still a young.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: Guy he's been mostly a relief, pitcher BUT i don't, know,
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: man he's he's been. Around he's been in the majors
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: a few different times over the last few, years but
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: obviously it hasn't been.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: Good male.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Cheerleaders, yeah that's, right, baseball we don't need, cheerleaders, man
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: just leave them.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: Out oh thank, you, sir, epic, Yes. Epoch all, right
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: are we ready for? This because that was the.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: RUNDOWN i forgot to throw out the graphic on. This
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: we'll do best bets and then we'll get out of.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: HERE i have four, plays, MAN i can't help myself.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: Here they're all baseball. PLAYS i got two, unders AND
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: i got two, sides one of first five side and
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: another full game. Side let's try to get it, done.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: Man the first one up is the one that almost
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: looks too, obvious But i'm gonna do it, anyway and
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: that Is Houston detroit under the. TOTAL i know it's
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: a really low total of, seven but we have a
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: really epic pitching matchum in this, game AND i know
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: it's no secret that these pitchers are really. Good once
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: he dive into, THIS i mean it'll be. Obvious like
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: the public almost seems like they're on the under in
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: this game as, well WHICH i don't. Love BUT i
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: just don't see how we could see this game any other.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: Way.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: Here we do have two pretty decent bullpens here as,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: well Though detroit's has fallen off a little. Bit houston's
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: actually dropped a little, bit but they're eleventh. Now detroit's
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: is seventeenth in era and their era's kind of gone
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: up over four. Now but looking at the bullpen usage
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: yesterday both these teams did play, Yesterday detroit really saved their.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: BULLPEN i, mean look how rested their bullpen as So
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: i'm a little bit less worried about the under here
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: for that. REASON i think only used two relief pitchers
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: in the last two. Days houston only used two yesterday
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: and one was a long relief, man so their bullpen
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: is in pretty good shape coming into this game as.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: Well so that helps with the under here BECAUSE i
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: don't like to go under first five and it's a
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: really low total like, This but obviously the starting pitching
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: matchup is a huge part of. This as far as
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: the offenses are, CONCERNED i, mean both these offenses have
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: kind of struggled at. Times detroit is still ninth in overall,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: Ops houston is down to. Thirteenth but you know, ME
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: i like good pitching over good, hitting and the hitting
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: has been a little bit iffy for these teams more
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: recently after maybe some kind of hot. Starts so Though
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: houston did get a lot of their injured players, BACK
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: i think so they're kind of coming back into. Form
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: detroit bet them ten to nothing, yesterday So detroit is
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: back to being hot, again winning five of the last six.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: Games so that makes it look like yesterday it was
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: a higher scoring game as, well WHICH i don't know
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: if that's gonna dissuade the public from coming in on
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: this this under in this when we have fifty six
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: percent tickets on the over eighty four percent of the
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: cash on the, over the total has gone up a
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: little bit to seven over with.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: Juice but, Again I'M i Guess i'm fanning the.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: Market read in two of my four, games, man BECAUSE
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: i don't agree with. IT i, mean this starting pitching
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: matchup Is Hunter brown Against tarrek School. BALL i, MEAN
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: i think the only way again you can look at.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: This game is for these pitchers to pitch.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: WELL i mean we're talking About All star. Pitching we're
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: talking about School. Ball who's the best pitcher in all of?
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: Baseball though again it's not a, secret which is why
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: the total is this. Low BUT i still think it's
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: a decent, price and we're talking About Hunter brown is
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: having an amazing, season All star, season so AGAIN i
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: think that it's worth. It. MAN i was actually shocked
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: BECAUSE i Thought thistle would be six and a half
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: seeing the starting pitching. Matchup so the fact that we
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: get the under on the key number, Seven i'm, like all,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: Right i'm there on this.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: One and Again i'm not.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: Playing i'm not making these bets right now just Because
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: i'm trying to figure out my life right now After
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: i'm being. Canceled but we'll, see MAYBE i do need
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: to start making these bets and just start making money this.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: Way all though my baseball has been in a, Lull
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: i've been really treading water for a. While But, anyway
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: back to, This Hunter brown two point four FIVE era
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: one whip really good numbers on the, season only slightly
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: worse on the road two point six TWO era in the.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: ROAD i Know detroit does hit better at. Home brown
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: had a bit of a snag here around The All star,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: break BUT i think it was because he got named
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: to The All star. Team he had a couple of
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: bad outings right around The All Star, game AND i
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: kind of predicted that if you go back and watch
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: my episodes from those. Days he's bounced back in a form.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Man his last four, outings he's allowed two or fewer
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: and runs in all of, them one exactly in three
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: of the four including, starts two starts against The Red,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: sox one of them on the, road one on the
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: road against The, yankees and one against The. A's so
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: he's facing pretty good lineups over that stretch. Too and
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: he's still pitching well this month fifteen to, five strike
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio one point eight NINETY, ra AND i
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: know the strikeout rate isn't totally high in nineteen, innings
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: but he is pitching well.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: Again, Man he's in good form right.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: Now And detroit seventy seven at bats against, him they
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: have not hit him. Well twenty five, strikeouts eight, walks
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: two to, eight batting.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: Average five to sixty eight.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: Ohps So Hunter brown good numbers Against detroit going up
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: against school, ball we know school ball very very very
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: good two point four TWO era this year point eight
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: to seven, whip and that includes not being quite as good.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: Recently he's a little bit worse at home two point
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: five to FIVE, era but still really. Good did have
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: a couple of bad starts more, recently BUT i think
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: maybe coming out of The All Star, break maybe he
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: was a little bit distracted, too because he pitched in
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: The All Star, game had. Won actually had two pretty
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: good starts red out of The All star, break then
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: hit a little bit of a. Snag but really his
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: only bad start has been one Against anaheim where he
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: didn't go five. Innings other than, that he's gone at
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: least six innings and all the other starts alonging three
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: or fewer. Runs so he's not exactly even in bad form.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: Now nineteen to four strike a walk ratio this, month
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: even though THE era was a little bit high at
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: four point eight, TWO i still don't think he's exactly
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: a terrible form. Here his team has won his last
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: three outings as, well and he's facing you, Know houston
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: lineup that he does do well against in the.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: Past SO i think he should bounce back from.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: What he's been doing recently or continue starting to pitch better,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: AGAIN i mean Against. SCHOOBLE i know he's, young but
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: he threw more innings than this last year one hundred
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: and ninety two innings last, year which was his biggest
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: season of his, career, obviously but he's not even close
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: to that amount of innings yet this.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: Year so the fact.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: That he did that throughout the entire the entirety of
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: last year leaves me to believe he's not like burned
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: out yet or anything like. THAT i only had one
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two and a third innings pitched so
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: far this, year SO i don't think he's wearing down.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: Yet Against houston seventy eight at, bats twenty two to
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk ratio to eighteen batting average, allowed
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: six to sixty seven. Ops so we're going under in this, game.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: Man that's the other way that it is under. Seven
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: next up under the eight In Saint louis And, miami
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: which you had to pay a little bit to get
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: under the. Eight you could go under seven and a
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: half if you wanted. To in this, GAME i kind
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: of preferred the, eight though they had to pay a little.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: Bit more for.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: It eight's not a key number in, baseball. Though seven
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: is the keyer number in. Baseball so if you get
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: under seven and a, half better. PRICE i don't hate
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: that idea.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: Either this. GAME i think the money is agreeing with
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: me on this. Game it looks like a game.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be kind of under the, Radar LIKE i
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: don't think the public is gonna Be, OH i want
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: to play an under In Saint Louis. Miami total sitting around,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: Again LIKE i, said seven and a half or EIGHT
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: u seventy one percent of tickets on the, over only
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash on the. Over so
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: the public ticket percentage is on the over in this.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: Game by the, way the side in this game the
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: numbers drop On miami for minus one sixty to minus
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: one forty, six fifty nine percent taket seventy four percent
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: of the cash On miami, though so money line has
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: moved against them with the.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: Cash he used to be.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: Coming in On, miami But i'm not gonna try to
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: figure out the side and this, One i'm looking at
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: the total obviously on the. Side by the, way in the,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: GAME i just talked about the money is coming in
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: On houston fifty eight percent of the cash and then
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the tickets On, Detroit SO i
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: guess do with that information what you. Will detroit dropped
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: for minus one seventy minus one fifty, two WHICH i
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: like that BECAUSE i think that means professional betters are
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: Expecting Hunter brown to pitch well in that, game who
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: was the pitcher who's less, Consistent SO i like that
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: as far as the under is, concerned and this game
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: somewhat of the same. Thing if you look at this
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: market read here the money line dropping Towards Saint louis
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: BECAUSE i think their picture is the less trustworthy of the.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: Two So i'm liking. That as far as the, offenses
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: we're looking at mediocre. OFFENSES i, Mean Saint louis is
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: actually all the way down to twentieth And miami's is,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: sixteenth so these offenses are not very. Prolific the Bullpends
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: Saint louis is still sixth, overall And openny ra even
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: though they traded some guys. Away, yeah this is the entire,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: season but their bullpen has been pretty. Decent miami is
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: his mediocre at nineteenth not, great.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: But still we're gonna go full game in this. One.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: Anyway bullpen USAGE i think kind of helps us out
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: here a little. BIT i, mean it's not really that
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: heavy on either. Side Miami henriquez only through six pitches
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: yesterday and that was his only appearance over the last four,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: days so he'd probably be available again if they want.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: Him Saint louis used three of their. RELIEVERS i think
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: the bullpen's intact enough. Here if you want to go
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: under in the first five, INNINGS i think that's fine as.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: Well you could do that at like under four plus,
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: MONEY i think is WHAT i saw out. There so
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: if you want to go just with the starting pitching,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: matchup you could do that as. Well But i'm hoping
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: the starting pitchers kind of get us a little bit
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: deeper into this, game help us with the full game under.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: Here we Have michael.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: McGreevy pitching For Saint louis mediocre numbers this. Year he's
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: a young guy man who has some Potentially he's not
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: really a big strikeout, guy BUT i think he is
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: the guy that does have the ability to get things
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: done at the major league. Level let's say four point
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: four to ONE, era one point two to TWO whip not,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: terrible better on the.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: Road THREE era on the.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: Road so we have a good split in favor of McGreevy,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: here and after he had a couple of really bad
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: out he's a really one bad outing well TWO i
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: guess against The cubs In San. Diego he's kind of
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: bounced back. Nicely he had a somewhat better start Against
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: San diego to start this month and then shut The
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: cubs out even though both of those teams had just faced,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: Him so he actually pitched better against him the second time,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: out which that to me is a good.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: Sign.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: Man when an offense that had just faced him didn't
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: do well against, him that's pretty good because that.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: Means he was able to fool them even though they'd
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: just seen.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: Him and then he Faced colorado the last, TIME i
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: did okay in that. Start, again his strikeout rates not,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: high nine strikeouts in the eighteen innings this, month but
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: only two walks three point FIVE era this, month so
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: he is pitching fairly well right now And miami has
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: never faced him, before so, AGAIN i think that's a
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: little bit of an extra edge for him aggrieving because
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: you have an off it isn't really that, great and
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: they're facing a pitcher they've never seen, before SO i
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: think they might struggle a little bit early on in this.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: Game Edward cabrera pitching From. Miami i've, been you, know
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: singing his praises for a while. Now he's a guy
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: that has always had really good strikeouts up but his
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: walks have been a. Problem but he's kind of solved
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: that more. Recently he's been good this year three point
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: three FOUR, era one point one six. Whip he's better
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: at home two point eight SIX era at, Home so
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: we have good splits in this. MATCHUP i know his
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: last downing wasn't good At cleveland five and runs, allowed three,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: walks still had six strikeouts and five and a third
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: seven hits. ALLOWED i Know cleveland's a bad, offense but
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: look at what he was doing prior to. That he
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: allowed one run a piece in four starts in a,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: row including a start against The yankees and one Against oh,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: yeah against This Saint louis, team he held them to
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: win and run in six. Innings that does Mean Saint
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: louis is recently familiar with, Them but he pitched well
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: in that. Game, uh except for the three walks but four.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: Strikeouts i'm still not too.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: Worried.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: Man this month he has a three point two SIX
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: era twenty four to five strike a. Walk, right you're
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: even including that bad single start that he had, recently
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: even Though Saint louis did see. Him their numbers are
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: just not good against some lifetime although it's a small
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: twenty eight at bat sample, size seven to four strike
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: a walk race hio isn't that great, again three walks
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: in that last owning against, them but one seventy nine
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: Six thirty eight.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: Ops So cabrera does have good numbers against. THEM i
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: expect them to bounce back, here so under in that
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: game as. Well first five you could look at that
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: potentially as. Well next, up this one looks, ugly. MAN i,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: Know Chicago White sox first five innings plus the half
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: run at minus one oh. Six you could play them
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: on the money line if you want. To as, well
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: you get like a plus.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: One thirty something on them on the money.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: Line if you want, to just go balls to the
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: wall there and then if it's tied after, FIVE i
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: believe that would. Push But i'm just going with the run, line,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: Man so if it's, tied this one is actually gonna
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: still be a, winner even though you do have to
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: pay a little bit more for. IT i like The
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: White sox early in this game Against. ATLANTA i, mean
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: these are two teams that are out of. It of,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: Course Saint louis And. MIAMI i forgot to mention they're
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: both out of it, too so it's, like what are
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: you really playing? For houston And detroit are both they
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: are to, play, MAN i mean they're both fighting for playoff,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: position because that's a big, game which is WHY i
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: put that in the title of the. Show, Yeah White Sox.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: Atlanta nobody's gonna even really pay attention to this. Game
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: these teams both, suck they're both out of, it AND
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: i Know atlanta is better than the record. INDICATES i,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: mean the run differential is better than the record. Indicates
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: they had a bad loss yesterday thirteen to. Nine so
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: this is part of the reason WHY i like the
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: fate Of atlanta. Here they had five wins in a. Row,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: man when a team is hot like, that and then
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: they lose a win streak that can hang them over
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: a little.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: BIT i, MEAN i know they might want to bounce
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: back from doing really badly in that, game but that
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: was a crazy.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: Game. Man Spencer stryder has just been getting lit up.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: Recently there's something not right with.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: Him, YESTERDAY i THINK i did actually say the.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: OVER i think did have some like there were some
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: reasons to maybe think that game was gonna go over last,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: night and it really went. OVER i think if you
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: watch my, SHOW i THINK i said that. Hopefully but,
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: Yes stryder was.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: Awful in the. Game there was a lot of bullpen.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: Usage The White sox bullpen is unbelievably, bad So i'm
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: gonna take them out of the equation. Here atlanta only
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: used two relief pitchers. Yesterday White sox used, Five so
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: The White sox, bullpen they're the worst bullpen, anyway and
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: their less. Rest so let's not deal with The White
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: sox bullpen. Here BUT i do think this is a
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: bad spot For atlanta losing their win. STREAK i think
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be hung over here. Again both teams already
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot left to play for. Here then
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching, MATCHUP i think That atlanta
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: has just favored way too heavily in this. Game. Man
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: based on what we see in the starting pitching, MATCHUP
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: i Prefer Shane smith Over Bryce.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: Elder Shane. Smith this is his rookie.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: Season he was really good early in the, season BUT
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: i think he kind of wore out a little. Bit
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: BUT i think he either was on the D l
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: and maybe getting some rest story he went down to.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: THEM i don't know if he was back down in the.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: MINORS i don't know, what but he's been a little
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: bit better again. Recently overall numbers not bad for one
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: point two eight whip is a little bit, high but not.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: Terrible he's only slightly worse on the road four point
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: one to ninety ra on the.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: Road but.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: He's been fairly good man since he again like he
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: hit a really rough. STRETCHER i thought he was wearing
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: down a little. Bit he did pitch in The All Star.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: GAME i didn't do particularly well in The All Star
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: game as far as the line two, runs but they.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: Were both on.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Solo homers went three innings in The All Star game
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: and had five, Strikeouts no.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: Walks, No, no that was Against. Cleveland what AM i?
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: SAYING i was, like he went three?
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: Innings what he only went one third of an, inning
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: shutout ball in the he just got one guy out
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: in The All Star. Game but, YEAH i, MEAN i
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: think he's kind of started rounding back at a form
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: that starting Against cleveland wasn't as bad as it. Looked
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: they limited him a little bit because they wanted him
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: to potentially be able to pitch in The All Star.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: Game he, did and then he came back from The
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: All Star. GAME i know his walk number wasn't really.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: Good he walked four guys Against. ANAHEIM i know he
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: walked three in his last. Outing but he's only allowed
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: two earned runs over his last two outings Against seattle And,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: detroit and both of those offenses are not that. Bad
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: so this month, overall he does have a two point
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: five ONE era seventeen to eight strike a walk, ratio
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed more the tour in. Runs and then he
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: start going all the way back to The colorado game
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: At Course. Field so again some of his bad outings
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: in that rough stretcher against good offenses orn bad, ballparks
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: So colorado on the Road Dodgers Arizona. Smith he's definitely
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: in a little bit better form right, now and The
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: braves have never seen him, before SO i.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: Think that's a little bit of an extra edge To.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: Smith, again a young pitcher that does have some talent
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: facing an offense that's never seen it. Before, yes Generally
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: atlanta does have the better offense in this, matchup BUT
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: i don't know that.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: They're gonna do particularly well Against smith.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: Year So i'm gonna bank On smith out Pitching Bryce
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: elder early in the. Game and that's what this bet
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: is all.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: About.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Man part of it is THAT i Think Bryce elder is.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: Terrible five point eight to NINE, era one point five to,
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: whip really bad. Numbers you can't put one and a
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: half guys on basin inning and get away with. It,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: Man he's been really bad and evil at, home six
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: point six SIX era at, home really.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: Bad he has been a little bit better.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: RECENTLY i understand that fourteen to six strike a walk
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: race yio of this month four point one TWO, era
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: coming off a really nice start against The. METS i
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: get that that was a good start for, him but
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: overall he still hasn't been that. Good he gave up
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: five runs the prior outy Against. MIAMI i was really
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: getting bombed in the month Of. July So i'm not
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: really sure that he's totally returned to, form if he
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: even really has a good. Form i'm not even. Sure
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: he's only pitched slightly better. Recently he still had multiple
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: walks in five starts in a row and seven of
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: his last eight, STARTS.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: I believe is what that. Is that's not a great sign.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: Either and against The White, sox, YES i know he's
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to. Them they have three ters we have seen him,
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: before but they have three walks against, him no, strikeouts
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: two eighty six average seven eighty six. Obs so he
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: didn't do well against them in that limited playing. TIME a,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: THOUGH i don't think you can really take that much
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: away from. That BUT i Think smith is the more,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: unknown SO i think he has a little bit more
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: of that like unfamiliarity.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: Edge.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: There we're gonna a huge underdog price here with The White,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: sox AND i believe the money is coming in towards
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: The White sox. Here let me see where are we looking? At,
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: yeah So atlanta has already dropped for minus one seventy
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: to minutus one fifty. Five they're very, public seventy four
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them. Public even Though atlanta's had
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: a really awful, season the public still is gonna take
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: them against The White. Sox The White sox just, awful
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash On, atlanta so the
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: cash percentage seems to be Fading atlanta here and the
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: money line has dropped on. Them we get a pretty
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: solid price. Here this is first five innings Only White
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: sox run line there the mark of The. Beast, yeah, Nds,
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: yeah they'll have to talk about price. Up, dude his
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: name Is, elder like he's some elder on some you,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: KNOW i don't, know. Counsel that's like COMMITTING i don't,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: know some sacrifices or. SOMETHING i don't know what the
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: deal is. There and then finally full game to, uh
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: this is the one Where i'm going with the. Public
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: the market looks like it's in total disagreement with. Me
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: BUT i don't see how this is gonna. Be The
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati reds minus one. Thirty The reds are the only
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: team with something to play for WHICH i do. Know
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean there's a little bit of added pressure
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: here Because cincinnati's gotta win to stay in the playoff.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: HUNT i get.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: That the other thing is That anaheim did return home
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: from a road trip and lost, yesterday so it is
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: kind of a bounce back spot for. Them, historically when
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: teams don't do well in the return home, squat they
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: usually do better in the next.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: Game but that was only.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: A return home spat from a single series at The,
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: a's SO i don't.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: Know AND i still Think anaheim is not even as
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: good as their record.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: Indicates they have a bad run differential man on the,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: season So i'm still okay with Fading anaheim. Here we're
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: gonna go full game here Because anaheim's bullpen is also really,
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: Bad so we're gonna Fade anaheim entirely.
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: Here anheims bullpen is.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: Bad they only use three relief pitchers, yesterday BUT i
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: don't think it really matters too. Much cincinnati also used,
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: Three but we're looking At anaheim's bullpen being really one
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: of the absolute worst. Here they're in the bottom of
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: five bullpen's overall not. Good cincinnati is at least somewhere
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: in the MEDIA yoca range with AN era of below,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: three so that's much better hitting, Wise anheim is only
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: slightly better at fourteenth The reds of nineteenth and, ops
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: so not a.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: Huge disparity one way or the other.
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: There AND i think we have a huge starting pitching
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: mismatch here with a guy who's much younger and much
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: more talented And Hunter. Green you, KNOW i like this,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: guy AND i think he might be almost a little
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar because he's been dealing with vomiting
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: on the mound constantly and been injured a. Lot but
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: he's got good. Numbers man two point four to SEVEN
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: E ra point nine to three. WHIP a whip below
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: one is, elite.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: MAN i know he's a little.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: Bit worse on the, road three point five ONE era
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: on the. Road he pitches well In cincinnati's very hit
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: her friendly. Ballpark for whatever, reason he was having a
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: good season and then unfortunately he got. Injured on the,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: season he allowed more than three or runs only one,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: time and allowed more than two only, twice and one
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: of them was a cores, Field.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: So obviously he's having a good.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: Season he came, back and what did he do in
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: his first start after he was on the injured list
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: for like two? Months oh, yeah he came back and
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: he shut out The phillies FOR us six. Innings philly's
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: really good. Offense he had three hits, allowed no, walks six,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: strikeouts really pretty much a clean sheet against The. Phillies
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: that's a very good Sign philly's good. Offense so he's
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: actually stepping down in class to face a somewhat weaker offense.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: Here And anaheim has also never Seen green before except For,
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: darnau who is one for two of the home run off,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: him but other than, That anaheim is completely unfamiliar With.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: Green So, green a, young really.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: Talented, PITCHER i think has the upper hand as well
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: here Because anaheim has not seen him, before so they're
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar with. Him and The reds are certainly gonna be
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: pretty familiar With Kyle, hendrix who is a you, know
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: he's not a young, guy, obviously he's an older guy
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: who's been in the league for a long long time.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: Now he's not really a guy that comes in and
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: blows guys. Away he's a guy that. Pitches, okay, REALLY i,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: mean if you know, Me i've been fading this, guy
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: especially when he was on The. CUBS i was fading
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: him a. Lot he's been a little bit better With.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: Anaheim his season hasn't been terrible four point eight EIGHTY,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: rm one point two EIGHT, whit BUT i think he's
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: getting a little.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: Bit worse more.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: RECENTLY i know his splits are in his favor today
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: four point three EIGHTY ra at, home but his recent
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: form is not very. Good six point EIGHT ra this,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: month twelve to five strike a walk ratio when five
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: innings are less than all three of the, outings give
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: up five.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: Runs last. Outing it was against The. Dodgers that's a good.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: OFFENSE i.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: Get it wasn't particularly great Against detroit, either although he
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: did strike out six and not walk.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: Anybody SO i, mean.
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: He's not in the absolute worst form, here BUT i
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: still don't think he's the better pitching. HERE i don't
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: totally trust. Him un though he's been decent at. Home
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: in some, cases The reds have actually hit him. Well
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: so The reds are familiar with him because he was
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: in their. Division he was on The cubs up until,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: recently and in seventy four at bats fourteen to six
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio is not that great For hendrix
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: three thirty eight batting average, allowed.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: Eight eighty seven. Ops so The reds have hit him,
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: well so we're gonna Go reds this. Game, MAN i
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: know the money is completely fading. THEM i do worry about.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: That Markt reid is totally against. Him down for just
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: one forty, one twenty six eighty percent of the tickets
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: on The, reds fifty three percent of the cash coming
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: in On.
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: Anaheim BUT i just showed you what the matchup looks. Like,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: MAN i think that this is a play on The. Reds,
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: MAN i can't help. Myself green Over, HENDRIX i think
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: is a fairly big mismatch in Favorite cincinnati professional. MONEY i,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: MEAN i think to some extent they're basically just saying
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: we don't think the red should be this much of
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: a favorite on the, road WHICH i understand that. Sentiment
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: BUT i think they have the upper hand men and
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: the pitching throughout this. Game so that's gonna be that.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: Playing and that's. It those are the plays. Today The
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: council of, nine, yeah or of nine.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: Like no vomiting on?
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: Them, yeah maybe it, is, Man maybe he's like swallowing
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: at the cack.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: Before, dude go find the videos of.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: It he is like projectile vomited mid pitch before like
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: that happened last. Year he was like literally in the
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: middle of throwing the pitch and vomit was coming out
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: of his.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: Mouth it's completely. Insane maybe he's.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: Throwing the puke, ball, man it's a that's how he's
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: getting a lot of his. Outs, man that ball is.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: Slippery guys don't know what to do with. It puke
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: is not an illegal substance right. Now but that's gonna do. It.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: MAN i appreciate. It, man, everybody thanks for hanging out
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of plays today in. Baseball Hopefully i'm not
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: over over.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: Extending myself here with all these.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: Plays but we got under a full game In Astros,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: tiger it's under a full, Game, Cardinals, Marlins, Cadinals, Milins
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: Kid White sox run line first five as an, underdog
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: first five innings only remember And Cincinnati red's money. Line
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do, It, yes, exactly that's.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: Right that's gonna do it for. Today, man learn its
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: own On, Twitter learn It towe On.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: Instagram better Off, dead, like subscribe to the, show you,
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: know help interact with me on on YouTube. Here we're
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: on the audio platforms as. Well you can help out
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: by giving a rating. There On Apple Spotify covered In
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: yuke is my yuke channel on, YouTube so you can
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: help me out by trying, to you, know do whatever
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: you can to interact with that channel as. Well patreon dot,
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: com slash learn to toad WHERE i have some bonus
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: yuke content there at some of the higher levels.
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: Too that's gonna do. It check everything, out, man T.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: Bone that's gonna be my. Nickname.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: NOW i do look Like George, costanza so AND i
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: probably relate to him the most out of The siefeld.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: Characters So I'M i don't, Know i'm a little bit
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: funnier than that, Though so Maybe kramer combined With, GEORGE
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: i don't, know but that's gonna do. It i'm a
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: little bit less evil Than. George i'm a little bit
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: less manipulative than. That All, right that's gonna do. It.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: MAN i appreciated. Everybody thanks for hanging. Out Happy tuesday and.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: Peace