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The Favorites - NBA Conference Finals Betting Guide · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight seventh having s t O P in Louisiana
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  Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight nine or visit
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  Speaker 1: one eight gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: am Chaid Noman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: We're starting conference finals in the NBA, folks. I got
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, professional better b FF compadre companion my co
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: hosts here on The Favorites Sign Sixers. We haven't talked
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: about sort of the demise of your team. I want
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: to bring in our guests in a second, who I'll introduce,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: But we should talk about the fact that you know,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Doc Rivers is coming back and this team looked like
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: they had no passion, no fire, no fight. The we're
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: grabbing offensive rebounds. One guy in between two guys, What
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: say you? What say you about the prospects for your
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: local team? I mean the life of the Sixers fans.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: But um a, I was two thousand and one man
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: like that was a lifetime ago for me as a
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Sixers fan. So am I upset? Yeah, but I literally
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: said it to you. I hate James Harden. Did not
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: like his style play at all when he came to
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: the Sixers. I was like, this guy's zero heart. Like
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs, you need heart, you need a dog.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: That man has no dog in him. So nothing shocking.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: It sucks. I keep losing money betting on them, but
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: it's all good. It's like, it's what I expect. So
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: as a Sixers fan, I'm excited that we have Naxi
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Joel Embiid. Hopefully his face comes back normal next year
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: and he can heal up, and I'm happy, excited for
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the future. But if Harding gets a five year deal
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: from Darryl Morey, I know you were Ravelle had that
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: guy's phone number or address. I'm getting it off you
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to the guy's house, so I can't
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: have it. So right now, I think all the Sixers
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and they're just scared about what's going to happen this
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: offseason with James Harford. Look, there's a lot at stake,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: right I do wanna bring in our guests. Brandon Anderson,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: NBA analyst at Action Network, frequent guests and podcaster on
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Our Buckets podcast, as well as frequent guest and podcaster
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: for our NFL podcasts. Jason timp Volume, colleague, host of
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: the Lakers Night podcast on the Volume Network. Before we
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: get to previewing the finals, both the MAVs and the Warriors,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Warriors favorites, and the Celtics and the Heat The Celtics
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: are favorites. Before we get to Brandon and Jason, we
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: created a game a couple of weeks ago. Quick reminder.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: I was in Vegas. I was coming back on the
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: train that takes you from the security gates to the terminal.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: A guy gets on the tram or the shuttle and
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: like his hand is bleeding all over the place. I
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: give him a band aid. We go our separate ways,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: and two hours later I board my flight, I take
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: my seat and this guy sits right next to me.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: What are the odds? I asked people, What are the
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: odds that that would happen? I asked Sean Croner, I
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  Speaker 1: asked Nick Giffen, two of the mathematicians here at Action Network.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, they broke it down before me, took all
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  Speaker 1: the mystery out of it, gave me the exact number
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  Speaker 1: of what the odds would be. It was four one.
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  Speaker 1: But it did prompt a potentially segment, and so simon
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  Speaker 1: a lot of people and again I said this in
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  Speaker 1: the last episode. I gotta give credit to Michael and
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Jen Schiffman, friends of mine who were over when I
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: was telling this story, and Jen looked at me, she goes,
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  Speaker 1: that's a segment. What are the odds segment on your podcast?
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  Speaker 1: Of course she knows I have a podcast. My wife,
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  Speaker 1: who was sitting next to or, was like, you got
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: a podcast? Anyways? Ask people to submit. Michael Ryan wrote
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: this a few years ago. I went to the Dallas
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Cowboys playoff game against the Seahawks. I attended a tailgate
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  Speaker 1: party and got to meet nature Boy himself, legendary wrestler
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  Speaker 1: Rick Flair. At the party, I asked Rick Flair to
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: perform his signature move on me the chop. Unfortunately, Rick
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: declined to chop me and that was that. A few
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  Speaker 1: months later, I'm in New York enjoying a late lunch
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: at a restaurant near the Brooklyn Bridge. I'm the only
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  Speaker 1: person sitting in the bar when in walks an older gentleman.
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  Speaker 1: He sits down one stool over from me and orders
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  Speaker 1: a beer and a glass of wine. He turns towards me.
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  Speaker 1: It's Rick Flair. I introduced myself and explain the insane
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  Speaker 1: circumstances of running into each other again just three months
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  Speaker 1: later and four miles away. Knowing this would be my
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  Speaker 1: last shot, I again asked Rick Flair if he would
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  Speaker 1: shop me right here in the restaurant. He politely declined,
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  Speaker 1: which was totally reasonable. I offered to buy him a drink,
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  Speaker 1: but he climb that too because he wanted to buy
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  Speaker 1: me a drink instead. So instead of a Rick Flair chop,
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  Speaker 1: I got a drink, a new story. And I'll never
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  Speaker 1: forget the name of the restaurant because it was the
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  Speaker 1: Brooklyn Chop House. What are the acts? That's amazing? WHOA?
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  Speaker 1: Paul the be the man? You gotta breat the man,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: and I'm saying, um the man? Whoa. We don't just
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: ask questions here at the Action Network, we provide the
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  Speaker 1: answers thanks to our award winning much beloved heartbeat of
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  Speaker 1: our business predictive analytics team, which includes Sean Kerner and
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffen. Get the fucking nerves to work, all right?
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: What are they fucking doing all day? Nascar modeling, predictive analytics.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: We're trying to make up games here. They went into
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: their on the request from this listener about what are
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  Speaker 1: the odds of seeing Rick Flair in two different places.
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  Speaker 1: Nick predictive analytics genius mathematician, give us the odds? Hi everybody? Hi? Alright?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: So Sean and I we actually did pretty heavy research
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  Speaker 1: on this. And given that you know, the Seahawks Cowboys
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  Speaker 1: playoff game was in January, why would Rick Flair be
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: in New York City in April? You know, April WrestleMania.
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  Speaker 1: So our hero Michael here put himself in this situation
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  Speaker 1: in a New York Area restaurant, the chop House, the
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  Speaker 1: week of WrestleMania. We have to look at it in
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  Speaker 1: the way that like, what are the odds that Rick
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  Speaker 1: Flair actually ends up there? And Sean and I went
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: through a bunch of different things. We found out that
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  Speaker 1: New York the metropolitan area has a population around nineteen
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  Speaker 1: and a half million, but not everybody is a drinker
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  Speaker 1: and not already goes out. So we kind of whittled
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  Speaker 1: it down and we found that there's about six thousand
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  Speaker 1: restaurants in the New York metropolitan area. So then we
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  Speaker 1: had to say, well, what's the probability Rick Flair ended
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  Speaker 1: up there? And I think Sean had a little interesting
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  Speaker 1: nugget on why Rick Flair would actually be more likely
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  Speaker 1: to end up at the chop House. Yeah, So, I mean, obviously,
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  Speaker 1: our hero in this story is obsessed with Rick Flair, um,
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  Speaker 1: so it's more likely he's gonna end up at a
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  Speaker 1: place called the chop House. Rick Flair is obsessed with himself,
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  Speaker 1: so it's more likely he's gonna at a place like
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  Speaker 1: chop House. So that tidbit in this story doesn't make
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  Speaker 1: it crazier, it just makes it more likely. So it
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  Speaker 1: allowed us to throw a little bit more cold water
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  Speaker 1: on these odds. But I'm saying it's more likely that
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  Speaker 1: Rick Flair go to a place called the chop House exactly.
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  Speaker 1: You know, we also have to consider what are the
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  Speaker 1: chances Rick Flairs in New York the week of WrestleMania
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  Speaker 1: probably pretty high. We put that at around chance. Then
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  Speaker 1: we also have to consider it, well, the average American
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  Speaker 1: goes out about five times a week for a meal,
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  Speaker 1: but that's much higher in New York City, and it's
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  Speaker 1: probably even higher for Rick Flair while he's traveling during
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  Speaker 1: the week of WrestleMania in New York City. So we
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  Speaker 1: put the probability of him going out for a given
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  Speaker 1: meal at around se chance. Like I said about six
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  Speaker 1: thousand restaurants he could choose from, so that's one and
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  Speaker 1: six thousand, and then Rick Fair is probably not going
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  Speaker 1: to McDonald He's probably not going to Sabarros. He's Rick Flair,
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  Speaker 1: he's a world champion multiple times. He's probably going to
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  Speaker 1: a nicer establishment. So we give it like a seventy
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  Speaker 1: five percent chance that if he goes out, he's going
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  Speaker 1: out to an establishment similar to the shopouts. So then
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  Speaker 1: we also have to consider the time, and the time
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  Speaker 1: is another factor that actually kind of flowers the probability
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  Speaker 1: makes a lot longer odds. The key factor here in
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  Speaker 1: our story was it was an empty place and it
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  Speaker 1: was a late lunch, so we can probably assume is
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  Speaker 1: a weekday late lunch. Not many Americans are going out
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  Speaker 1: at that time time. If you take five meals per
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  Speaker 1: week for an average American and there's about fourteen go
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  Speaker 1: outable meals, you know, to per day, let's say ballpark,
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  Speaker 1: then that would be about thirty chance. But given us
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  Speaker 1: a late lunch, it's probably much lower than that. But
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  Speaker 1: you also have to consider Rick Flair probably wants to
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  Speaker 1: avoid the crowds, still bump it up a little bit.
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  Speaker 1: So we gave about a twenty chance that Rick Flare
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  Speaker 1: be going out at that time. So you multiply all
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  Speaker 1: of those odds point nine point seven five point to
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  Speaker 1: five point seven five and one in six thousands, we
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: come up with ballpark one and fifty thous odds that
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: he would run into Rick Flair at that time. And
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: it makes sense. He's going to New York City, he
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  Speaker 1: has about six thousand places to choose from. What are
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  Speaker 1: the chances he's in up there at that time? Probably
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  Speaker 1: about one. And I'm saying since it's called the chop House,
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  Speaker 1: that's even lower than that Flare Michaels who just got
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: top to there. Anyways, Brandon Anderson analysts Action Network, Jason
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: tiff Post of Layers Tonight in the Volume podcast Network,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: we got a lot to discuss. We gotta talk about
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the Heat and the Celtics, Celtics favored. We got to
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: talk about the MAVs and the Warriors, the Warriors favorite,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: uh favored. Most people will be hearing this after the
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Celtics Heat game for Game one is tonight. MAVs Warriors
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow night games Game one for them. Before we get
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to that, Brandon, I want to ask you this and then, Jason,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I want your take. The Suns have gone from a
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: team that last year was in the finals two this
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: year had the best record in the NBA to five
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: games ago, looked like they were a sherlock for at
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: least the Western Conference finals. And now you're wondering if
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you got to blow up this whole team, Brandon, what
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: is happening? What can fans expect? What do you think
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the Sun should do? Well? It was a mess. Eton
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: played seventeen minutes in Game seven. His contract is up,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: So now what happens with Aidan? Does he resigned, does
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: he get trade? Does he just signed elsewhere? We already
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: knew that was a storyline, and that is a juicy
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: way to send that one into the off season. Chris
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Paul through two games is just like scoring anytime he
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: wants to. And the poor guy turned thirty seven and
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: celebrates his birthday by training into a pumpkin. Chris Paul
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: played so bad in Game seven, I think the Lakers
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: were calling at halftime trying to see if he's available
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to join the team's like thirty seven year old loshed star.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Like the guy fits in perfectly, so Jason, I think
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: that's a future Laker for over there. But it was
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: a mess. I hate to say. They looked uncoached, They
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: looked on preared. They were making uncharacteristic mistakes, turnovers all game,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: all series. That's the one thing Chris Paul never does
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: is turned the ball over and him and Devin book
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: are just like throwing it to the other team. It
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: It was so ugly and so messy that I almost
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: can't wonder if there's something else behind the scenes. Is
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: there has is something in the locker room? Is there
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: something happening with us sons? Like they were so far
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: off their usual game. And the other wonder that I
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: have now is is this the new Utah Jazz. We
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: We've seen the Jazz pile up regular season wins for
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: years and I famously took the Jazz at fourteen to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: one to win the Western Conference this year, thinking well,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll get the bounces this year. They didn't get
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the bounces. They got bounced. But are the Suns a
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: new Jazz where they kind of broke the regular season
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: code open, but don't have that top level in the playoffs.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: So it was a rough way to go. Well, look,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: you love the Lakers, uh? I know from listening to
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: your work, Jason, you genuinely do love the Lakers. Uh
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: you see the Sun's collapse like this, and what is
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: your look both as a media basketball professional analyst and
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: as a Lakers homer. Well, for starters, I do have
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: to clarify, and I apologize for not doing this in
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: my previous appearances on the show. I am not a
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Laker fan. I simply covered the Lakers for the last
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: couple of years. Now, I did fall in love with
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: that Laker team and everything about them. I thought I
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: just loved as a competitor, the way they went about
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: their business every single day. But I found the product
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: this year to be so deeply offensive that that honestly
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: like getting away from them and switching. Like we completely
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: rebranded to hoops tonight actually, and now we're doing a
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: five night a week. Well here in the playoffs it's
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: been every night, but we're covering the entire league. And
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: I can't tell you, as a basketball fan, how refreshing
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: it's been to get into some real quality basketball. Um
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: as far as Phoenix goes, you know, it's super interesting
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: to me is if you look at last year, they
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: were dominant through the entire regular season, dominant through the
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: first three rounds. Um yeah, as Clippers took them to six,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: but then they beat the hell out of him in
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: that sixth game, right, And then things started really well
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: in the finals, but then Chris Paul fell apart. And
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: when Chris Paul fell apart, they fell apart. Right. So
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: then we come to this year, exact same thing. Incredibly
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: dominant through the entire regular season, pretty dominant in the
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: first round, but you got a factor in that Devin
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Booker injury as it pertains to that series getting dragged out,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: and then through two games, well, let's just zoom out
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Through eight games, Chris Paul was averaging
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: twenty three points per game, extremely efficiently, attempting about fifteen
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: shots per game, and then over the course of the
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: last five games of the series, he basically stopped shooting.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: The only attempted I believe, just under eight field goal
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: attempts per game over the course of that last uh
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: five games of the series. So I, at first I
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: picked it up on some weird body language stuff, and
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I thought it was related to that incident in the
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: crowd with with some drunk fan trying to like give
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: his mom a Mother's Day hug or something. I was
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: there was something clearly going on with Chris Paul mentally
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: in those couple of games, but then it extends through
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the end of the series. So my theories he got hurt,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I think he I think we have reporting from Marcus
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Spears that it was a quad injury, left quad injury.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: But the gist of it is is that the Phoenix Suns,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: obviously there's a lot of facets to their offense, but
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the core, full corone of their offense is high pick
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: and roll with Chris Paul and DeAndre and he has
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: to be able to come off that screen and either
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: dictate attention or score. Has either got to score or
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: be a threat to score, and too often towards end
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: of that series, like he wasn't even looking to score.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: He would throw that swing pass across the court before
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: even putting any real pressure on the defense, and as
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: a result, Phoenix's offense completely decombusted over the quarters of
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: the end of that series. And so it's really this simple,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: And I know people think I'm crazy, but I think
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: you have to have an elite, top tier superstar, someone
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: that can consistently compromise the defense. Even when you're having
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: a bad night like a bad Chris Paul Knights, really
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: bad at a bad Janice Knight, or a bad Steph
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Knight or bad Lebron Knight, those nights are still deeply
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: impactful just any attention they dictate from the defense. Right,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: So if if Chris Paul's not that guy and Devin
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Booker is more of a number two, then you you
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: are fundamentally flawed at the top stages of the n
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: b A. So I think it's time to start looking
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: at Eton and Bridges package together first, are somewhere around
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: the league needs to be the next focus here because
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: you're just gonna keep running into Luca or running into
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Janice and losing because they are so much better in
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: these specific environments. And to the Jazz comp it's a
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: perfect example. When you build your team as a regular
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: season engine, it's bound to fail. Dallas was all year
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: kind of an underachiever in terms of like with respect
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: to the rest of the to the rest of the
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: NBA field, but they were prepping a playoff style of
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: basketball that was proven to work. A lot of switching,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: attacking matchups, really good spacing of the floor, five out concepts,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: all that stuff. So they rolled into the playoffs and
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: they actually go upp aloud. Their play style is conducive
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: to this environment, whereas for Phoenix it's the exact opposite.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: If anything, they trended down a little bit, and so
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: I hope they learned their lesson. And it's wild to
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: say that a team not even basically a year removed
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: from the NBA Finals should rebuild, but that's where I'm at.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: I'd keep Booker and I'd look to flip Bridges and
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Eton for a big star at this point. All right,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: well that reeks of desperation. So good luck to the
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: uh Phoenix Suns. UM talk about Luca. MAVs dominated in
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Game seven. Luca had more points, had as many points
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: in the first half as as the Suns did as
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: a team, and um, look, midway through the third, they
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: had doubled doubled them up and scoring. That's when I
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: went to bed. It was four minutes left. They were
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: up by Now we're looking at game one on Wednesday night.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Let's start. I don't predictions yet. I know Simon wants
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: to get more specifics on that, but when did you,
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Brandon start to think? All right, the Warriors maybe the
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: best thing in the West. I mean I started to
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: think that it maybe like ten games into the season,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: five games into the season, like way back at the start,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: the Warriors just came out of the gates, guns blazing,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: and we're just they looked like the Warriors. They I
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: think they were eighteen and two out of the gates.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: No Clay Thompson yet, but Steph was the m v
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: P and was going to run away with it. Draymond Greene,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: my beloved thirty three to one defensive Player of the Year,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: looked like it was just found money early on, and
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: then he got hurt. Steph got hurt. Steph started pushing
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: for that record and somewhere along the way after that
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: first twenty games, and those twenty games came against pretty
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: easy competition, but everyone kind of got injured and we
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: sort of forgot about the Warriors somehow, because this team
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: has even been in the playoff proper the last two years,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: and they towards the end of the season got healthy.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Clay Thompson had rusty start, but then started really getting
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: going late. Jordan's Pool has been just a revelation. Jordan
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Pool has been the ultimate X factor for them and
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: X factors are good and bad. Sometimes he has been
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: very bad in the playoffs, and especially his home road
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: flits are huge. He's much better as a lot of
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: young players are at home when he's comfortable there. So
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: he is a big swing factor. But boy, when they
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: get going, when they've got Steph and Clay and somehow
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: they find Jordan Pool, who is a Steph clone, He's
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: He's running around all the off ball movement and the
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: relocating after the shot. Like poor defenses. I've already had
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: to chase step around for thirty five meds doing that
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: all game. Now they got Clay doing it. Now they
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: got Jordan Pool doing it too. Draymond makes everything work. Um,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, I've got the Warriors Steph Curry shirt on.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I've been a Warrior's fanboy for this whole round over
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the years. These are not the old Warriors. The floor
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: is much lower, but boy, when they hit that ceiling
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: is it's pretty basketball. So looking at this matchup, I'll
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: start with you, Jason and he picture of this Golden
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: State Dallas game one Wednesday night. We got Golden State
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: minus five and or it's up to some books on
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: minus five and a half, but vandal it's minus five
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: right now over under uh two fourteen point five. You
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: gotta play for this game right now. So I'm on
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Golden State for Game one, the the first of all
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: throughout this entire playoff from We've kind of noticed that
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Golden State has been better early in series and it
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: kind of faded late, which I think is directly ah
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: It's directly related to their lack of overall size. Like
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: as the series dragged on, Denver size really war on them.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: The Memphis ditched John Moran and really had a I
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: don't think anybody realizes how Memphis was the winning that series,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Like it was very very close, and and it just
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: simply despite having a massive chasm in talent offensively between
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: those two teams at into that series, but they were
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: just physically bullied by Memphis out of the facets of
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: the game, right. And so I think as this series progresses,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Dallas's advantage will become better. I'm actually picking Dallas in
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: this series, but I think Game one Luca kind of
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: reminds me of Lebron too. He's very feel He's a
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: very feel out type of player. Like Game one, he's
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: just gonna be trying stuff like, let me see if
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: I can get this shot off against let me see
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: what works against Raymond when I get him on switches.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Let me see what works against Wiggins if I have
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: to attack him at the end of the clock. Let
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: me let me see how like how good I am
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: at getting Steph isolated away from the group or Jordan
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: Pool isolated away from the group. Like it's a total
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: feel out game. I don't even think Dallas last game
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: one in both of their series, So from that standpoint,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: I would be on Golden State for game one. I
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: just don't think it matters much for the long run
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: of the series. Jason, You're about to get a big
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: lesson and NBA gambling not when I take the Mavericks
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: in this series. That was adorable what they did to
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the Sun's Golden State. Bro. They're talking about Golden State Warriors,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: all healthy, all playing at the top level. Huge mist
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is I would say, handful of pros
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: I've talked to we're gonna talk about the next series
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: to do with Miami. They said this is one of
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: the easier best they've ever made with Golden State to
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: win this series end. They love it that people are
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: drinking the cool ay with the Mavericks who just beat
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the Sons who tank every year. I mean, we can
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: go back to Steve Nash run with stodhom Are every
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: year the Suns would do great and then losing the playoffs.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: So it's just I just think people are buying too
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: much into the cool aid of this Mavericks team. I
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: get it, they're up and coming, but Golden State, man,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: they're all healthy. It's like, even in that fourth quarter
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: if it's a if they're down twelve points, I mean, Brandon,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Brandon can talk about are you ever scared about Golden State?
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: It's literally Steph Curry, it's two threes, Clay hits a three,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, it's a two point three point game.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: It's like, this is why they are just one of
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: the greatest dynasties have ever seen. So that's really interesting
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: hearing that you would actually take the Mavericks series, because
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: I haven't heard anyone put real money on the Mavericks
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: in this matchup. So again, I'm not the gambling guy.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: I'm the basketball guy. You guys know that. That's that's why.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: And I learned something a single time I come on
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: the show and when I go on with Matt Moore,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: But like it's to me, it's like I and I
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: I trust the pros, Like trust me, I get. I
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: get that they have a lot of really good reason
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: to feel the way that they feel. To me, I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: just look at it from a basketball perspective, like good
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: gold Golden State. They're the biggest thing that scares me
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: with them offensively is they go through extended stretches where
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: their offense doesn't function super well. They have stretches where
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: they take similar shots that they took in two thousand
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: fifteen to two thousand seventeen range like Prime Warriors, they'll
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: take similar shots. The differences is STEP's not the same
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: guy he was then, Clay is not the same guy
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: he was then, and Draymond is not the same guy
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: he was then. You know. So like they go through
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: these really cold stretches. The weakness for them on offenses
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: they do not generate a ton of riom pressure. And
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: that what was killing the in the Memphis series as
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: it dragged on was they weren't getting any drivel penetration
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and getting into the lane that was getting them better shots.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: And then this is it really is this simple to me,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: there is not There is not a soul on that
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: entire Golden State roster that has a hope of arting
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Luca don Chick Phoenix had. Phoenix had guys that at
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: least could make him work. He was trying to get
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: He was trying like hell to get away from Michal
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Bridges DeAndre Ayton, with exception of a handful of times
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: he left his feet made him take really difficult fade aways.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Like there were guys. Because Phoenix has such great size,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: and because Luca depends on his size to create a shot,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: he had a hard time in some specific settings. That's
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: why his efficiency was so bad throughout the first several
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: games of that series. But I think I think Luca,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: especially as this series progresses, is going to get any
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: shot he wants every time down the floor. I have
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: the utmost respect for Golden State. For the record, this
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: is not a Warrior's hate take or anything I would have.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I would have picked the Warriors over Phoenix by the
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: way I just look at it. In terms of the matchups,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: I think Dallas's defense is highly highly highly underrated. During
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Phinney Smith and and Reggie Bullock have been incredible on
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor this year. They were
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: literally the reason why Chris Paul and Devin Booker struggle
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: so much as that series dragged on. I I am
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: a lot higher on Dallas than most people, but for me,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: justly from the basketball perspective, I think Dallas is going
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: to get better shots, and as the series progresses, I
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: would not be surprised if this is the kind of
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: series where Golden States up two to one, you know,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: or or even if they want both at their home games.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: But as the series progresses, that's when Luca's brain becomes
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: a factor, and that's when Dallas is you know, the
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Golden States lack of size could become a factor. Luca
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: did Lebron did say that his favorite NBA player under
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: is Luca. He said it in his Q and A
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: last night on Twitter. They're very similar there. I always
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: say that Luca reminds me of two thousand eighteen Lebron
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: without the athleticism. So he's basically like the best half
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: court surgeon that we have in the league right now,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: just without the defensive up and without the above the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: rim stuff. But like he is he is. He is
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the best in the league at specifically targeting weak defensive matchups.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of teams that struggle to target
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: weaker defenders. Luca is relentless about that. He's even so crazy,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: like such a psychopath that he will target your best
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: defender strictly to get him out of the play so
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: that he'll like I watched him target Joannice just so
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: that he wasn't in help, Like he was like, Oh,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: I'm throwing these swing passes and Honest is taking these
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: shots to Well, I'll just have him guard me and
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: then he'll work your Honest into the lane and make
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the same swing pass, except for now it's a weaker
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: defender closing out and they get a better shot. Like
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: the dude. The dude is two thousand eighteen Lebron without
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: the athleticism. It's he's that level of half court creator
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: at this point. It's funny, that's how we described Matt
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Mitchell to Brandon Um. Jason seems to be in love
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: with Luca, and I think he's overestimating Luca's value and
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: the Mavericks ability to compete in this series. Uh, do
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: you agree with Jason or do you agree with me?
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Making a Warriors in five bet is a better number
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: than Warriors to win the series. So I'm actually a
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: lot closer to Jason on this one, and I don't
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: like the Layers in five bet. Luca don Chich has
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: played four playoffs series in his career, all four series
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: he's taken to six games or longer. I think that
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: this has a really good chance of going along. I'm
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: not taking the Mavericks in the series, but part of
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: that is because it's a terrible spot to take them
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: out in the series right now as a better because
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I love the Warriors early in the series, and I
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: think the MAVs are gonna fall down in the series
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: down a game down two oh, I think is even
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: very probable, and that the MAVs will be live after that. Though.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: You have to like the Warriors in the series because
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: they got home game one. I like the Warriors minus
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: five at home for Game one since playoffs, so this
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: version of the Warriors that's the first title year the
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Larriors in game one or twenty and two or sorry,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: twenty and two straight up in game one, and of
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: course a lot of heavily favorite in but as a
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: single digit home favorite in Game one, they're eight and
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: two against the spread. So that's the spot here against Alice.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: It's not just that they're good and at home, they're
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: great home team. Dallas is coming off of the Game seven,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: not the hardest game they ever played in their lives,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: but still a long series. Our Rahim Palmer talks about
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Game seven winners are thirty two and nine straight up
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: in the following Game one, so that's a rough spot
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: for them. The other thing too, with the Warriors, their
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: offense is just different. It's different than everything, and they
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: got all these cuts and back cuts and pats and
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: ball movement. It takes a while just to get used
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to it. And you know, the MAVs just played the
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: songs and the Jazz, who are like the most conventional
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: pick and roll this is how you play NBA basketball
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: type stuff, and the Warriors are very different than that.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: And I think it's gonna take the out some time.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Just so, I like the Warriors a lot. In Game one,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: those trends are pretty similar. For Game two, I think
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: they'll have a good chance to go up to oh
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: But as the series goes on, I think there's gonna
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: be some value on the maps as a long shot.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: For a lot of the reasons Jason said, Luca is
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: going to get better as the series goes on. He's
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: gonna find his numbers. I like Luca plus two ten
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: at FanDuel to leave the series and points, rebounds and
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: assists per game. I think he has a good chance
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: of doing that. And he fills up to the box
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: score in a huge way. Uh. Last games this season
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: after they traded for Stop Poisingus, Donjo average thirty two points,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: nine a half, boards, eight rebounds, and he's pretty close
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: to that in the playoffs. The rebounds actually have gone
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: up a little assist for me are the close one there.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: But Luca is gonna put the numbers up. He's gonna
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: do a lot of things. I think Dallas's defense is
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: going to get much better as the series goes on
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: and have time to kind of adjust to some of
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: those gimmicky things that the Warriors do and adjust to
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: chasing those shooters around and all that. At the other
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: thing too, with the Warriors, do you think, okay, so
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: they're up to oh maybe they get home game seven
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: if it gets there, how do you not just take
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: the Warriors on that spot? Well, the Warriors, of all teams,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: we know this about them in Their d n A
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: is built in oh too, oh done, we got this,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: We're in the finals. Let's party, let's go, let's go
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: and celebrate like they love. Nobody loves to just throw
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: a game away and just completely no show than the
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Bold State Warriors. It's just part of who they are, Like,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: that's that's the the arrogance and competence is built into
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: their d NA. You can't take it away because they
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be Draymond and stuff anymore. They get the turnovers
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: and just start throwing all away. We saw the MAVs
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: take advantage of that last series. I think Dallas is
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: going to push back after the early Warriors push and
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: I think they can make this series and be a
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: real threat because suddenly the series goes long. Now you
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: got Luca late in a series, and you got maybe
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: the best player in the court. And that's how it
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: was a danger. All right, So Warriors and five, who
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: do you guys think? Jason, Jason and then Brandon give
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: me one name to win the Western Conference Finals m
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: v P. Don't give me, don't give me analysis. I
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: want to get to the Eastern Conference Western Conference Finals.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: MVP Jason go. I'm obviously gonna be on Luca. Luca
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: is about plus um Brandon go. I want a different Maverick.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Give me a hundred forty one Spencer din Witty off
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: the Batch Conference Finals m v P longshot. I love it,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: And that's exactly what the number is right now. All right,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference Simon, you're throwing Quickdraymond Green got throw a
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: little love on Draymond Green. If he shuts down Luca,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: that would be pretty insane. Draymond Green is about plus
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: nine fifty right now. I love that, you know, I
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: love that value. You do love that the playoffs are
• 32:59
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• 33:23
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  Speaker 1: has done since January with this team. What I'm curious is,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: from your point of view, what is different about this
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: team that Brad Stevens couldn't get it to do same roster?
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: What is Udoka doing that is so much better? It's
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: not quite the same roster. I think Derek White, who
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: they picked up the trade deadline, has been a really
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: big addition for them, just getting a guy, a glue guy.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: I know that he's had some games in the playoffs
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: we're like, oh my gosh, can you make a shot,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Derek White? But you gotta look at all the other
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: things he's doing when it's not shooting, because that's that's
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Celtics basketball. It's the passing and the glue guy, offensive
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: complementary stuff, moving the ball a little bit better with
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: him out there. And he's a he's a good defender.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Everyone on the Celtics is a good defender. At this point,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: they only played good defenders. So I think one thing
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Joka did this year that really unlocked the defense is
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: they took Robert Williams and they said, okay, you're not
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be guarding centers anymore. We're gonna put you out
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: kind of off the ball. Have you be the help defender,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: and we'll put Al Horford and all the action because
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Al Horford is gonna switch, He's gonna he's gonna be
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: a great defender. We know that from a decade of
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: ball now, and that is kind of what unlocked the defense.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Robert Williams was looking like a possible to pensive player
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: that your candidate until he got hurt late in the season.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Marcus Smart won the award. Really is a team award
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: the Celtics. Since January twenty nine, Celtics had number one
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: defense in the NBA. They also have the number one
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: offense in the NBA. They just started generating far better
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: looks and just getting much better shots. Defense becomes offense
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: because you're getting all those stops and when the defense
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: is that good. We saw against Milwaukee some of the easiest,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: some of the only offense Boston could come up with
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: was get a stop and then run out and get
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: something in semi transition before the defense can lock in.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: That's gonna be really important for both teams in a
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: series with so much defense, here, and of course with
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Boston you need the threes to fall. But since January
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: twenty nine, the Celtics are thirty four and nine including
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Now, out of those nine losses, five of
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: the nine losses have been by one bucket, So if
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: those games go the other way, Austin could be thirty
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: five and four since the start of February and we
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: are two rounds in the playoffs at this point. I
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: didn't know. It feels like they just barely got by
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: the box without Chris Middleton. Wouldn't the Bucks have just
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: beaten them With Middleton? The Celtics won four games with
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Jana's putting up like thirty four, fifteen, and seven, and
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: they were almost gonna win two more games there there.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Two of those losses were by a bide. Again, they
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: could have won that series six to one. So I
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: think that we have to be careful with the narrative
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: framing on it. Boston is just really good, and Utoka,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: I think, has kind of set up the offense to
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: succeed by unlocking what the defense has done narratives. It's
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: kind of like thinking the mass and Luca can take
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: the Warriors deep because of what they did against the Suns, Simon.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: And honestly, it's interesting to hear what you say, because
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: a couple of guys I talked to they really love
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Miami in this matchup. They think Boston's kind of darling
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: of everyone. They just saw what they did in that series.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Their fans are obviously way bigger than Miami's and base
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: that's for sure. But I look at Miami is kind
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: of the more veteran team with Jimmy Butler, who's been
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: slept on this whole playoff series. I think statistically he
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: number two I believe overall and plus minus and what
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: he brings to the floor every game. So when I
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: look at this, I'm all in on Miami and it's
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: funny that they're plus right now to win this division.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: I would love to hear your your view, Jason, What
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: if Miami loses, uh this first game? I mean, most
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: people are gonna be coming on Boston here. Is that
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: one of these right? You think I should just wait,
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Betty Miami because they're probably gonna lose game one? Or
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: is this you know, extended rest? Is this the time
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: to pounce on Miami because what they're coming off four
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: or five days or rest compared to what two days
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: for Boston here. Well, we also have extensive evidence that
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: when Boston gets win, they tend to let their foot
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: off the gas, particularly offensively, They start to lose their
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: focus on the offensive to the floor. Brandon, you broke
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: down so many of my talking points for Boston that
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: I don't even really need to get into it all,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Like you hit the nail on the head on so
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: much stuff. Buston has been my pick win the Championships
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: since Game two against Brooklyn. I think they have the
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: best defensive team of this era, even better than the
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen Raptors. I think they have the quintessential
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: modern NBA defense, basically the ability to switch every single screen,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: the inability to have any defensive player that is easily targeted,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: and the way that that can stagnate really good motion
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: offenses and turn you into an isolation team in bate
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: you into trying to attack their awesome defenders in one
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: on one situations. And as much as their offense has
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: been their biggest plot, the they and to the reason
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: why Boston has turned around so well over the last
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: couple of years, it's email Duck at instilling toughness, which
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: I think is an important detail there, and then also
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: taking the bumps and bruises of letting Tatum and Brown
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: run your offense for two years and letting them stuck
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: and letting them make all kinds of mistakes but learn
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: how to do it, and so now they're both better
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: at it, but they're still there's still none of them
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: are that high level floor general, So as a result,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: they have a tendency to get off the rails a
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: little bit with their offense, badcot selection, early shots in
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: the clock. If you looked at this series, Boston won
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: every single game in the half court according to cleaning
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: to glass, but but literally Milwaukee stole three games in
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: the things that surround that static half court environment. So
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: transition opportunities want two of the games, and then they
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: want a game on the offensive glass, which was game five.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: So like Boston has things that they can get loose with.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: So between the letdown of just beating Milwaukee, the fatigue
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: of just playing on Sunday in an early physical game,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Miami being super prepared and ready to go, I think
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Miami's best chance to to to jump up on the
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: series is in game one. So I would think that
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: that would be the smartest bet. But I view this
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: as a defensive slug fest between probably the two best
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: defenses in this field, except for Boston has significantly more
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: offensive talent in terms of guys that can dribble, shoot
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: and pass, and so I expect this to be a
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: defensive slug fest. I would hammer the under in every
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: single game. Both teams will go in extensive stretches where
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: they can't score, but Boston will score more, and so
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: from there, I think it's that simple. So that's why
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: I'm on Boston. Is there any player on the Heat
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: in an open draft of the talent on both of
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: these teams that you would take over Jalen Brown or
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum? I would take Jimmy Butler over over Jaylen Brown. Yeah, Tatum,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: and then Butler and probably a couple of Celtics, and
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: then Damn and then the rest of the Celtics. I
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: think Boston's overall to a talent is significantly better, Brandon,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: So you guys seem to be aligned on this series.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Give me any value in betting finals matchups right now?
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Warriors Celtics plus one thirty Heat, MAVs plus six hundred
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Heat Warriors plus two eighty Celtics MAVs looks like plus
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: three fifty. Any thoughts on matchups right now? So the
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: key thing that I'm looking for, And you're right, Jason,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: I think are looking pretty similarly on the Celtics. For me,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: I have Boston a tier above the other three teams
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: remaining at this point. But and listeners will have seen
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: what happened game one already by the time we hear this.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: It's a schedule It's a schedule loss spot in game one.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: It's such a rough spot for them coming off the
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: seven game series. I want it. I want the loss.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I want Miami to go up a game because I'm
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: not playing the finals matchup right now. I want better
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: odds on Boston. I'm looking for my spot. Where can
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: I I'm I'm a sniper app here. I'm just waiting
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: for my Boston number. Where is the number that I
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: can get right now? It's decent value, but I think
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the number goes up. It has to go up. If
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Boston goes down a game in the series and Miami
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: is good, Miami matches up well. Miami could win any
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: game this series, certainly any home game. So if Miami
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: goes up one OH, Miami could go up to OH,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: and if they do, I'm gonna bet Boston again to
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: win the finals because I will still like the team
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: better in that spot. It's tough to overcome with two
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: oh deficit, but Boston just I don't know that I
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: trust Miami to score in this series. We like to
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: think of the heat as heat culture, and it's very
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: big balance that they have. The heat on offense so
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: far have been Jimmy Butler and please will anyone else
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: make a shot? Baller has been awesome, awesome these playoffs. Look,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: I'm a Bowls fan and a timber Rolves fan. I've
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: I've had the Jimmy Butler experience. This is about as
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: well as Butler has ever played. And this guy is
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: putting up triple doubles in the finals a couple of
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: years ago. He has been awesome. He's arguably been with
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Janice a co playoff MVP so far. But the Celtics
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: just played honest, just played Kevin Durant before that, and
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: this d You don't beat an all world incredible modern
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: NBA defense with one man playing all of your offense,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: You just don't. That's not a winning formula, and I
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: worry where, especially with Kyle Lowry hurt too, where will
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: the Heat come up? With enough other answers, So I
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: to your question, I want Celtics Warriors, but I want
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: to wait, or at least wait until this post. I
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: want to wait for a better number on the Celtics
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: because I'm looking for Celtics futures, but I want them
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: to get down early. Simon, you asked about how do
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: I bet the Heat. I think of the Heat lose
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: game one, They're in a huge trouble in the series.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: You can't lose game one with a huge rest advantage
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: and coming off Game seven, if if the Boston gets
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: that one, I think this could end up going short.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: I think you're hoping that you get a long series.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: You get the Heat win early. So you got to
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: get the bet in early on Miami because they're probably
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: gonna win the first game and then I'm looking to
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: come back in Boston later. Right Jason, it feels like
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Brandon has the Celtics and the Warriors in the finals.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Give me your two teams in the finals, and if
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: you're not going to back up your whole MAVs. Luca's
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: amazing take then you have no courage. So I actually
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: this was actually before I respond to the professional betters here.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: If I thought that Boston was gonna beat Dallas, is
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: it's smarter to bet them on a round by round
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: basis or to pick the NBA Finals exact resolve of
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Boston over Dallas. I would say, given what we've just
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: talked about, if you want Boston over Dallas, you absolutely
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: cannot bet it right now, because we both think that
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: the home teams are gonna win early in the series.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: You've gotta wait for the better price. But certainly, the
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: more exact things you put together, the better payout you're
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: gonna get if you're right, the more risk you're taking on.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: But I love the r O. I I love the
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: long shot. So for me, if that's the thing you
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: think is going to happen, Look, we could get Miami
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: up to oh, Golden State up to oh. And if
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: you still think at that point Boston over Dallas in
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: the finals, you're gonna get a pretty tasty number on
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: that one. You gotta wait for that number, though, I think,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: yeah so. But the gist of it is, I view
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Dallas as the best mismatch attacking team in the league
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: versus Boston, the team that is best equips to avoid
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: any sort of mismatch. So and I don't think Luca
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: particularly would struggle. The two guys that I think would
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: have disastrous series is against Boston or Jalen Bronson and
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: Spencer Dinwoodie. And I think Dallas's offense overall would fall
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: apart there. I'm very high on Boston obviously, but I
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: think Boston ends up beating Dallas in the finals. All Right,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: there you have it. We got our experts. We got
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Jason Timp Wakers Tonight Slash Hoops Night on the Volume
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: podcast Network. We got Brandon Andon NBA analyst for the
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Action Network for my BFF, my companion, my compadre professional
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell, our producer. I am
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Schad Noman. Download Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast.
• 46:48
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• 46:51
  Speaker 1: feedback as a gift until next time. W