Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Derby Day | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/2/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Derby Day | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/2/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mist three teen Parlette turned
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the dust in your head. Now you stare at the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: chips like they made you this man. But don't you
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor. Your name,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: steal me something on somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: Nice not now, hold on, Hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Everybody's towed back with the toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: It is Saturday, May second, It is Derby Day. I
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: did a Derby special last night, so you can go
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: check that out. I gave I don't know info tips,
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: I guess the puma has now been scratched by the
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: way with a leg swelling or something, so the Puma
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: will not be running in the Kentucky Derby. So that
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: basically would leave my card with sort of like just
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: those top four and then kind of potent day as
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: the long shot. If you watch my show, go watch
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: my show, you'll be able to watch it. But it
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: was only like a half hour you'll be able to
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: watch that before the derby actually happens in the evening.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: I think it happens early evenings. So whatever, yesterday we
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: were two and two. We started out two and oh,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Texas Rangers out to a four to nothing lead, blew
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: the entire lead and then won anyway five to four.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Bullpens coming through for us there Milwaukee Brewers easy win
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: as well. They covered the run line, so two and oh.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: And then the Dodgers shockingly lost again bad seven to two.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even say about that man.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: And then just the even more shocking result was the
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Seattle Kansas City under Brian Wu got absolutely tagged in
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: the first inning. They gave up six runs combined in
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: the first inning, and then they gave up seven for
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: the remainder of the game. Like the game was still.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: They gave up six runs of the first and then
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: no runs for the next four or five innings. So
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: it's like, sitting there, I'm like, is this actually still
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: gonna go under after six runs scored in the first inning?
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: There's no way. But no, that didn't happen. Still, how
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: can you expect that Brian Wu was gonna be at
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: home and get lit up for four runs right out
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: of the gate. It's ridiculous. And then Reagan's wasn't gonna
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: the first inning either, although both pitchers settled down, And
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: if that first inning hadn't happened, the handicap would have
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: basically been right on that game, and I guess we
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: would have at least had a push on it. I'm
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: pretty fucking pissed about that. We'll move on to today.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I love what's going on today.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give out two baseball plays. I got a
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: couple of these split bets that are you know, I
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: don't know if you want to call them pussy bets,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: pussy ways of wagering on these, but it's just the
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: way that it is. One is a favorite in baseball.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Then there's a hockey play as well. That's I'm gonna
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: do a split bet the hockey game as well, and
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give out a bet on the NBA. You
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: already know what it is, but I think it just
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: has to be done. There's just no way around at Charles,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: what's up, mister Penzy, what's up? All right, let's get
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: into it. Thanks for hanging out everybody, all right, And
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: I'm also pissed because my other leans yesterday were correct.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: We had it would have been an easy winner to
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: go first five with the White Sox. They won the
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: full game as well, but White Sox put up six
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: runs in the second inning and that was the end
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: of that. So that was a correct lean from me.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: The over in Toronto Minnesota was also correct, So those
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: both won. Three out of the four teams that were
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: on rest playing a team that had played two games
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: the day before that, three of those four teams won,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: which were the Red Sox, the Yankees, and uh whoever
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: was playing against San Francisco. Those three teams won. Tampa Bay. Yeah,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: the only team that overcame that negative was Philadelphia, so
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: and I believe Miami was returning home from the West Coast,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: so again not a good spot in the return home spot. Anyway,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: we don't have to worry about situations like that today
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: because it's the second game of most of these series,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: third game of the Toronto Minnesota series. Baltimore in the Yankees.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: The Yankees won yesterday. I don't know what it was,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: seven to two, yeah, something like that. This game, you know,
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: Baltimore does have a slightly better bullpen here. They're ranked
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: in the top ten and bullpen whip the Yankees are
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: mid tier right now at fifteenth. They actually have a
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: better bullpen ERA than Baltimore does, though, so I don't
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: think there's a huge disparity between these bullpens. The Yankees
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday. It was a game that
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: wasn't that close, so no high leverage arms had to
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: come into play there. Baltimore used two as well, like
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: long relief guys. Hitting wise, the Yankees are in the
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: top five here. Baltimore is mid tier right now fourteenth.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Yankees do have the better offense. Kyle Bradish is pitching
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: for Baltimore. I believe Baltimore wound up going with cade
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: Povich yesterday. I didn't actually check, but that's what I
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: heard they were doing because they were listed as undecided yesterday.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Bradish has got a four point two ERA, but his
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: whip is terrible one point seventy three, doesn't have significant
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: home roads splits. He's been you know, serviceable, I guess,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: allowing three or fewer earned runs and all but one outing,
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: but he's faced some pretty weak offenses in here. Really,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio is also terrible, thirty one to seventeen.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: That is just way too many walks. Thirty five hits
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: a lot as well in thirty innings. I don't know
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: how he's escaping allowing so few runs, although I also
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: don't think Bradish is that bad. If you look at
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: what he's done just throughout his career, he's not as
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: bad as those strike out walk numbers would suggest. So
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: just right now, he's not really in great form. It
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: looks like numbers against the Yankees are actually good in
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: a big sample, well big enough fifty seven at bats,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: twenty four to six strikeout walk ratio. The only two
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: extra base hits off him a double from Goldschmid and
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: a home run from Rice one forty batting average four
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: to thirty three OPS. So Bradish might actually match up
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: okay against the Yankees. Weathers is pitching for the Yankee
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: is Ryan Weathers. He's got pretty good numbers this season,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: three point two to one ERA, one point two to WHIP.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse at home, but not really
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: significant splits there. Yankees more of a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: He's got a good strike out walk ratio, much better
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: than the than the bradish one forty to eight and
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: allowing a little bit fewer than one hip per inning
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: and thirty three and two thirds innings. It's a high
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, man, it's actually yeah, it's surprising that his
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: whip actually amounts to something above one point two because
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: all of his numbers look pretty good. So I guess
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: I have to be a little bit more lenient on
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: the whip. I guess something in the one twos low
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: one twos. I guess it's not that bad. He's been
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: pretty good overall. He's allowed more than three earn runs
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: only once in a home start where he also had
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: ten strikeouts against Anaheim, and he gave up four home
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: runs in that game and only allowed five runs. I
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: don't know, seems a little bit fluky. His numbers against
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Baltimore very small sample twelve at bats they have five
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: hitters have faced him six strikeouts, though one walk, three
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: thirty three average eight oh one ops. I don't think
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: you could really draw much from that sample size. You know,
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in slightly towards the Yankees that are
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: around the minus one sixty range sixty eight percent of
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: tickets seventy four percent of the cash. I probably don't
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: disagree with the Yankees here. There's an argument for a
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: first five under here as well. I mean, I don't
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: know if i'd really want to include the bullpens in
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: an under. Here. Totals at eight and a half for
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: the full game. I could see the argument that both
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers could do okay here, the money isn't really
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: indicating one way or the other on the total right now.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Kind of hard to read. But that's not a game
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: that I want to get involved in. Toronto at Minnesota.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: These teams have split the first two games of the series.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Minnesota took the loss seven to three yesterday. The over,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: which was my lean in that game, did hit. Minnesota
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: used three relieve pitchers yesterday, not heavy usage, but their
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: bullpen stinks. Toronto used four. It's a situation. Like I
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: said yesterday, I don't love these bullpens. Minnesota's is really
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: bad at twenty sixth and whip, putting one and a
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: half guys on base and inning five plus ERA. That's
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: really bad. Toronto not as bad. In the middle of
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: the pack right now fourteenth. Still don't really trust these bullpens.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Hitting wise, Minnesota's had the better offense, but they're in
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: the middle of the pack at seventeenth, Toronto surprisingly twenty fourth.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe once they start getting some of their guys back,
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: they'll start hitting a little bit better. I don't even
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: know if those guys are back or not. I haven't
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: even been checking the injury reports on these guys. It
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: looks like Springer did come back, Kirk is still out.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: Barger looks like he's out now, so I don't know. Anyway,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: don't cease his pitching for Toronto. His numbers mostly look
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: pretty good. I mean, this is what he always does.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Two point eight seventy rays. Eray is usually fairly good
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: to the last year. It actually even his eray wasn't
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: good last year really in a pitcher friendly ballpark last
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: year too. In San Diego, he's got a one point
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: three to seven whip though he's putting way too many
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: guys on base. His eray's a little bit better on
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the road, believe it or not. Two point three to five. Again,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: his walks of the of the issue here. He has
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: forty nine strikeouts in thirty one and a third innings.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: He's striking out a ton of guys, but he has
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: seventeen walks, only twenty six hits loud. But again, he
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: puts way too many guys on base via the walk,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: and he's inefficient with his pitches, Like I keep saying,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: he has a lot of like five inning outings because
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: he just throws way too many pitches. He's thrown one
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: hundred pitches and three outings in a row. Now that's
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: not that great man, even though he limits the runs,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: because he really does strike a lot of guys out.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: But I'm not like a huge cease fan. Numbers against
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Minnesota are pretty good. In sixty three at bats twenty
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: seven to eight strikeout walk ratio one ninety batting average
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: allowed five to twenty ohps. So yeah, he matches up
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: okay here. He certainly could do well here. Connor pre
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: lip Is pitching for the Twins. I believe he's only
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: made two starts in his entire career so far, both
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: this year. Of course, home road splits. Is not really
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: much to see yet because his two starts have both
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: been fine. He's allowed two runs in each of them,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: did walk three guys in the most recent one, which
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: is a little concerning, but he only gave up one
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: hit against Seattle on an eleven to three strike a
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: walk ratio right now, five hits a lot in nine
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: innings four era point eight to nine whip. He did
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: face the Mets and then Seattle. Not like the greatest
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: offense this year. Toronto hasn't been that good either though,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: and of course Toronto has never faced him before, so
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I talk about how that is a little bit of
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: an extra advantage for some of these young pitchers that
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: do have talent. Offenses can struggle to figure them out
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: the first time they face them. So I don't think
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: pre Lip will necessarily do poorly here either. I don't
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: want anything to do with the game. The money is
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: coming in on Minnesota, though sixty six percent of tickets
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: are on Toronto, fifty five percent of the cash on Minnesota.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Of course, I can't use the pregame screen because they
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: don't fix their bullshit. Fucking pissed dude, you can't go
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: a week without fixing that shit. But I think primarily
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: the money is probably hitting Minnesota because you're gonna pay
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: at tax for don't cease like that's just the way
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: that it is. Toronto is like a minus one twenty
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: to minus one thirty favorite here on the road, so
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: I think the feeling is that maybe they shouldn't be
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: favored by that much. I think if you're gonna go
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: with Minnesota, you should probably go first five innings with
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: it and cut out the bullpens because their bullpen sucks.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: But I could see arguments for first five under here.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: The total in the full games in the seven and
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: a half range. I don't really like the full game
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: under obviously because I don't like the bullpens well enough,
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: but under first five does make some sense with this matchup.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Probably about a three and a half would be the
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: number on that I would not disagree with that. That's
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: probably the preferred approach there. Josh, what's up? Thanks for
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: hanging out. Next game is a play for me. This
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: is really mostly just a matchup thing. I just think
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: it has to be done. Oh whoops, I should bring
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: that up. I guess my record is waning right now
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: at forty eight twenty five and four. We got to
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: hit fifty wins here before we hit third losses. Man,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: that's over the last four weeks forty eight twenty five
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: and four. I told you like running seventy percent was unsustainable.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: So whatever the play in this game is going to
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: be a split bet. I told you I had a
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: split favorite bet here. Cubs are the play at minus
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: one and a half at plus one forty and the
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: rest of the bet minus one sixty. The splits on
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: this were it comes out really even. Actually, so I
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: think if you want to do, if you're betting out
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: of one hundred, I think you put two thirds of
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: it on the minus one sixty part of it, and
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: then the whatever that will return, you put that amount
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: of it on the plus one forty part of it.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: So you make your own minus one run line. Basically,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: it comes out to about I think about a I
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: don't even know what it was. I think about a
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: minus one to eight price on the on the minus one.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: Some books will offer the minus one, but the'll probably
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: charge you a little bit more. So it's advantageous to
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: multiple books available. Else you could do a split like this.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: That's what I'm recommending. I mean, you know me, this
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: looks like a huge pitching mismatch to me, but I
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: think the Cubs have an edge pretty much in every
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: aspect of the game. The Cubs did win yesterday in
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: the afternoon game, but only by one, six to five.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: I think was the score. The Cubs used three relief pitchers.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with that. Who are we playing? I forget
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: who they're even playing. I just can't remember anything anymore.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: All Right, they're playing Arizona. Yeah, Arizona. Their bullpen, like
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: I said, they're not as good as where they're ranked.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: They use three relief pitchers yesterday. I don't like Arizona's bullpen.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Their RA is still in the high fours, even though
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: they're ranked third and WHIP. They're not a good bullpen.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: The Cubs bullpen. They're a little bit lesser in WHIP,
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: but their ERA is a run better. You gotta say
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: the Cubs have the better bullpen, so we'll give them
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge. Both offenses have actually been pretty good.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: They're both in the top ten, but the Cubs have
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: had the somewhat better offense as well. And the starting
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup here again, I think it's a huge mismatch.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Ryan Nelson for Arizona. You know, I don't like him.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Seven point seven to one ERA, one point five to
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: two WHIP. That's bad. He's been good on the road,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: so you gotta worry about that a little bit. I
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: guess He's been blasted in his home starts so far,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: but it's still a small sample size. But his ERA
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: on the road is three point four to five, so
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: it is way better. It's eleven runs lower than it
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: is at home right now. But I still don't trust him.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: His last two starts were both horrible. Both of them
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: were at home, yes, but against Toronto San Diego. Those
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: offenses are not what the Cubs offense is the only
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: time he faced really good off well. He faced two
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: good offenses this year, Dodgers on the road and Atlanta
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: at home, and he did not do well in either
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: of those outings. So you know, I don't think it's
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: a good matchup for him here, and the numbers bear
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: that out. Sixty eight at bats against the Cubs, sixteen
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: to seven strike at walk ratio is not terrific. Three
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: point thirty eight batting average allowed in nine eighty eight
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: ops allowed, so he's allowed a lot of hitting to
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. Let's just say so, he does not have
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: a good matchup, and he's going up against show to
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Ima Naga, who is one of the better Cubs pitchers
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: three point one five vrra point eight seven whip for him.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Ima Naga is a little bit better at home so
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: far as well, two point five RRA at home. He
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: struggled a little in his last outing, but it was
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: on the road against the Dodgers, so I think you
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: give him a pass for that. His only starts are
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: reallowed more than one and run with that one and
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: the first start of the season against Washington, and sometimes
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: you have nerves in that first start whatever, you're getting
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: used to the game. Again. Overall, he's got thirty eight strikeouts,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: nine walks, and twenty one hits allowed in thirty four
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: and a third innings. That's fine, obviously, I mean pretty
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: good numbers. Numbers against Arizona also good. In thirty one
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: at bats seven to one strikeout walk ratio, one twenty
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: nine average allowed, three thirty eight ops. So you can
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: see why I'm recommending this as a play. We're gonna
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: go with the Cubs here. Nelson, by the way, I
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: forgot to look at his overall numbers. He has a
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: twenty four to eleven strike out walk ratio and twenty
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: eight hits allowed in twenty five to two thirds innings,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: So his strikeout rate is fine, but a lot of walks,
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of hits allowed. You know, we're going with
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher here. I think the Cubs have at
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: least a small advantage in every phase of the game.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: I think the starting pitching, matchup, matchup edge is pretty
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: big for them, so we're going with it. Cubs split
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: bet their partially run line, partially money line. If you
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: look at what the money is doing, the money is
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: not agreeing with it. Seventy five percent of tickets, only
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of the cash on the Cubs. I
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: don't know what to tell you, man. I don't think
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Ryan Nelson is backable, even though he has been better
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: on the road, this is not a good matchup for him.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: He struggled against the good offenses that he's faced this year.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: It's the way that it is. The total is low,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: so you know, the run line and part of it
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: is a little bit less good looking just because the
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: total is seven and the total seven and a half.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: Because the win must be blowing in again in Wrigley,
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: and I think in the Great Lakes region it's actually
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: pretty cold out right now. It's like forty degrees probably,
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: but I don't even care. I think the clubs could
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: definitely win that game by multiple runs. So that's what
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: we're going with there, all right, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: won the game yesterday, another correct lean for me. Pittsburgh
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: bounced back after an ugly sweep the hands of the
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh easy nine to one win yesterday.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: You know, they had the pitching matchup edge in that one.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: I don't think Cincinnati is as good as what they
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: look like right now, Like their record is kind of fraudulent.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati has won more close games than any other team
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: in baseball so far. Cincinnati us four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh only is two, to kind of give their bullpen
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a reprieve. Cincinnati's bullpen, their ERA
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: still looks pretty good, but they've really fallen off. They're
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: putting almost one and a half guys on basin inning
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: and they're down to twenty second in WHIP. So I
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: don't trust Cincinnati's bullpen a whole lot. Pittsburgh they're bullpen
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: worst ERA, but overall they're a little bit better. They're thirteenth,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: not the greatest bullpen, but decent. Hitting wise, the Reds
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: have struggled. They're bottom five and hitting Pittsburgh has been
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: better than that. Pittsburgh is tenth right now, actually tied
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: in tenth in OPS. Pittsburgh with the better offense. The
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup looks like it does favorite Cincinnati in this one,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: though a little bit the starting pitching Rhett Louder's pitching
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: for Cincinnati. Three point one EIGHTYRA, one point one eight whip.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Those are good numbers. He's a little bit better on
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: the road so far too, two point six ERA. Cincinnati
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: does play in a hitter friendly ballpark. He's got a
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: twenty five to ten strikeout walk ratio, which is not
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: that great. He's not a huge strikeout pitcher. Thirty hits
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: allout in thirty four innings. That's not bad, though. He's
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: allowed four or three or four on runs and every
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: outing except one where he allowed four to Miami, so
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: he is keeping the runs off the board. Pretty good
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: numbers against Pittsburgh, but very small sample. Eleven at bats,
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: no extra base hits, all out to them, one strikeout,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: two walks, one eighty two batting average four ninety OPS.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh only five of their hitters have ever faced him before,
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: so Louder might have a little bit of an unfamiliarity
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: edge there. This game's on Fox Sports one. By the way,
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Louder looks like he might have an OK matchup here.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Carmen Molodzinsky is pitching for the Pirates. Four point one
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: three ERA is not too bad, one point four or
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: five whip is not very good, though he's been good
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: at home though one point six to ninety RA, so
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: he's been significantly better at home this year, but again
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: it's a small sample already. To eleven strike out walk
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: ratio is really not that bad. Thirty hits all out
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: in twenty eight and a third innings. That is too
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: many hits, But none of these numbers are like egregiously bad,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: even though the whip is too high. I don't really
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: trust him as much as Louder. I mean, I don't
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: fully trust either of them. I think Louder probably does
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: have a slight edge here. But Motzinsky's numbers against Cincinnati
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: are pretty good in twenty seven at bats, ten strikeouts,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: one walk, one eleven batting average and three twenty eight
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: ops allowed, So the matchup numbers actually look good for
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: both pitchers. We don't know how deep Moldzinsky is gonna
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: go though he's only gone more than five and a
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: third once and he's only reached the five inning mark twice,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: although he had shutouts in both of those longer outings,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: so that's good. But his last two outings, he gave
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: up five and four earned runs in each of them
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: and failed to get to the fifth inning or failed
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: to finish the fifth inning. I should say those were
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: both on the road, but one of those is again Texas, Texas,
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: not a good offense and a pitcher friendly park. The
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: other one against Milwaukee, who hit a little bit better
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: than that. Yeah, I mean, I don't like this game
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: very much. I mean there's I think there's too much
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: variance in what can happen here. The money is hitting Cincinnati.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: I don't really disagree. Sixty three percent of tickets, ninety
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: one percent of the cash on Cincinnati. The problem I
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: have is that everybody's gonna look at their records and
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: think that Cincinnati is the better team because they have
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: the way better record, and think they'll bounce back after yesterday.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: And maybe they will, because the bounce back is a
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: thing after you get kind of embarrassed and blown out.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: But the problem is Pittsburgh is favored in this game
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: for a reason, Pittsburgh is actually the better team in
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: my opinion, So again I think Cincinnati's record is misleadingly good.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati has been good on the road though ten to four,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: but again it's a lot of close games. So I
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: struggle with you know the game here, but I do
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: agree matchup whise Cincinnati does make sense. Maybe you go
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: first five on it instead. Just get Cincinnati is a
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: slight underdog. With just the starting pitching matchup out there,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: they might be able to win that bet. There are
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: arguments to be had for an under in the first five.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: I would say as well, I don't know if i'd
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: want to go full game, although it's not like both.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: It's not like the bullpens are really terrible here. Though
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: the total is eight on the game, I can see
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: some arguments, yeah, for kind of a sneaky under all
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: though it looks like the money's hitting the over in
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: that game, with fifty percent of tickets and eighty three
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over, and again sixty
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: five percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: on the reds. I don't know, not a game that
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: I want to have anything to do with though, but
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: those would be my slight opinions on that game, Milwaukee
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: at Washington. We got this game right yesterday with Milwaukee
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: with a six to one win. Washington, they're bad at home, dude.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: They're now three eleven three three eleven, Yes, the excellent
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: rap Rocks rap rock Reggae ban three eleven. I am
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: actually a fan of them. I've seen them multiple times
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: live and ruin my hearing at one of their shows
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: in two thousand and three. Anyway, Washington is bad at home.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: They also allow the most runs in baseball at home,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: which I don't remember if I mentioned that as part
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: of that handicap yesterday or not. But Washington is not
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: good at home. They're pitching is especially not good at home.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: They're bullpen is bad as well. Look at this is
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: I'm actually looking at hitting right now. My mistake. Hitting wise,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: both teams well, actually, Washington's been okay, where the hell
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: are they? Actually? Maybe Washington's fallen off. They've dropped to seventeenth,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: so I kind of thought that would happen because Washington
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: had started out the year hot hitting, but they haven't
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: been that good recently. Milwaukee is barely below them at twentieth.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's still dealing with some injuries in their lineup, but
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: you could maybe make the argument Milwaukee does have a
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: slightly better offense. Bullpen wise, Washington is really bad. Well.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: They're in the bottom six. Their ERA is finally below five,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: so way to go Washington. They still have about a
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: one and a half whip. Milwaukee's bullpennyras in the threes.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: Their whip is a little bit high, but I think
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is the better bullpen here. Milwaukee only used two
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, so the starting pitching helped them out.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: They didn't have to use many after they used too
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: many guys the day before that. And I still wanted
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: them in the game yesterday because Washington's bullpen is that bad.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Washington used three relief pitchers yesterday. Kyle Harrison is pitching
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: for Milwaukee, the guy the Red Sox got in the
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Devors trade, and they should not have traded him away
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: for Caleb Durban. Harrison's having a good season two point
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: two EIGHTYRA, one point h six whip. He's been a
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: little bit worse on the road three point two four ERA,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: but that's not bad. Obviously, he had probably his best
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: start of his career last time out, and we got
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: a win with that one. We did play Milwaukee here
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: on the show. In that game, he had a six
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: inning shutout against Pittsburgh with twelve strikeouts, one walk, and
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: one hit. That's some good stuff. He's got a thirty
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: to eight strike out walk ratio. That's good. Seventeen HiT's
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: allowed in twenty three and two thirds innings, so he's
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: striking a lot of guys out. He's not allowing a
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: lot of hits. He's not putting a lot of guys
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: on base. Harrison's been solid, man, just he hasn't gone
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: that deep into a lot of his outings so far.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: But I think he is good. He's pretty trustworthy. But
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: in this matchup, I don't know. Washington has hit him
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: pretty well. Forty one at bats, five to one, strike
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, three sixty six average allowed nine to
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: thirty three ops. That worries me. Although you gotta think
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: that you know these numbers were in the past, I'm
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: pretty sure. I don't think he's not facing them. Oh no,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: he did face them this year, my mistake. So that
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: is actually worrisome because I was gonna say those numbers
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: were like in the past when maybe Harrison wasn't, you know,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: as good as he is now, because a lot of
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: times guys take a little while to get going in
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: the majors. But he did actually face Washington on April eleventh,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: and he didn't do that well. He went four and
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: a third innings. I only had one strikeout in that one,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: give up two earned runs on five hits, So that's
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: a little bit concerning. That means Washington does hit him well,
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: and they're familiar with him. So this is not the
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: ideal matchup for Harrison, even though I think he's possibly
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: better than Foster Griffin. But Griffin has actually pitched well
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: this year for Washington. He's pitching today two point six
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: seventy ra, one point oh seven whip. He's been a
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home, but three point two seven
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: not bad, which kind of cancels out, you know, the
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: Harrison splits there, because Harrison's a little bit worse on
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: the road. Washington's won five of Griffin's six starts so far.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: He has a thirty to ten strikeout walk ratio in
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: twenty six hits a lot in thirty three and two
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: thirds innings. Man, I mean I was skeptical because Griffin
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: really had almost no track record in Major League Baseball
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: and he's thirty years old. Now he's kind of proven
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: me wrong. Man, he's been He's pitched well this year.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, you can't really argue with these numbers here.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: So and he's had, you know, some starts in there,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: had a pretty good start against the Dodgers, did okay
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: against the Braves, you know, I mean, he did face
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee as well, but he actually did well in that outing,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: except for the fact that he had one strikeout in
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: three walks. That's not good. But he held him to
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: one hit and no runs in five and a third
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: innings on the road. So Griffin might actually do okay here.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's only one for sixteen off him, which is probably
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: mostly that one start that he made no extra base hits,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: one strikeout, two walks though sixty two average two twenty
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: nine ops. So even though, yes, overall, I think Harrison
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: is the better pitcher over Griffin, like just way higher
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: ceiling for Harrison, better strikeout pitcher, whatever, But this could
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: be a sneaky little bit of an edge for Washington here.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean Washington first five here, I think Griffin
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: might be able to outpitch Harrison given what these matchup
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: numbers look like. It's possible that both pitchers, you know,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: do something different than they did in that first outing though.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: But the money looks like it is coming out on
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee fifty seven percent of tickets, seventy six percent of
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. They're in the minus one thirty
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: or so range. You know, Harrison getting a lot of
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: respect from the market here, but I don't know. I
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: think Griffin might be getting a little bit undervalued in
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: the market right now. And speaking of the under I
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: mean I could see the argument for like a first
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: five under. Whatever you do, you don't want to include
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Washington's bullpen though. That's why I said first five for Washington,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: if you want to take him as an underdog in
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: the first five. I don't really disagree with that. The
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: money looks like it is not agreeing with the under though,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: ninety one percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: cash on the under. I would be surprised if the
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: public was playing an under in this game at all, though.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: There's no way because these are not name pitchers here.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: You know, the total is only seven and a half
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: to me, it's low for a reason, but I would
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: not want I want Washington's bullpen factory into the equation,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: so I would go first five under if I was
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: gonna play it under. Probably it's about a three and
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: a half number there, Jamne, what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Three eleven? Yeah, I reposted. I redid a cover of
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Beautiful Disaster like probably within the last month or so.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: That is up there. I have other covers of them.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: I've covered amber, although I can't do the ska rhythm
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: corrector reggae rhythm. Whatever I've covered all mixed up is
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: probably out there somewhere. Some of these are probably on
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: the YouTube I've done too much to think is a
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: good one. That's probably my favorite one to do. I've
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: done that one as well. That's probably it. But yeah,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: I've done some of them. Kyle, what's up? Thanks for
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: hanging out? All right? Cleveland at at the A's. This
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: game did go over yesterday, so the A's, you know,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: back to putting up overs in their home stadium. I
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: suppose wasn't really sure about that. That one did not
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: look particularly over conducive to me. Uh, Cleveland did win
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: the game, which I kind of thought they would. Don't
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: know if the A's are gonna bounce back here or not.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: The A's used four relief pitchers yesterday and they're not
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: a particularly good bullpen. Cleveland used six, so a lot
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: of bullpen usage like that's That bullpen usage makes me
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: think that it was an extra inning game and it wasn't.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: So that was a lot of bullpen usage in that game.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: That's not a good sign. So I don't want anything
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: to do with the bullpens here. The A's bullpen is
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: twenty first in WHIP, putting almost one and a half
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: guys on base. In any you can't do that, especially
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: not in the A's stadium. Cleveland's bullpen is a bit
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: better at seventh in WHIP, although their ERA is above four.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: I think Cleveland is the better bullpen, but they're very
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: unrested here. That's not good. The A's are twelfth in
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: offense right now. The A's are definitely the better offense.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is twenty second. That's based on ops, but yes,
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: I think the A's do have the better offense. Slay
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Chacone is pitching for Cleveland. He has struggled this year.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: Six point two to three ERA one point five to WHIP.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: He's also pretty bad on the road six point nine
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: to eight road ERA, and pitching in this A's stadium
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: probably not gonna help him. But he did actually pitch
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: in the stadium last year, and he actually did pretty well.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Back in June of twenty twenty five, he pitched in
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: the stadium and had a seven inning shutout here, So
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: go figure man. He actually did pitch well in the
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: stadium last year, but that doesn't mean he's definitely gonna
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: do it again. His numbers against the A's are not
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: that good. In fifty three at bats seven to one
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio is good, but two eighty three
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: batting average allowed seven to eighty seven ops. Those are
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: not good numbers. So he definitely could get hit by
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: the A's here, even though I think he did okay
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: two starts against them last year. Jacob Lopez is pitcher
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: for the A's. He has really not been good either
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: this year. Five point eight four ERA, one point nine
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: to five WHIP really bad for him. Surprisingly, he's actually
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: better in this stadium, though I don't know how that's
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: possible because I think Lopez, I'm pretty sure he's more
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: of a fly ball guy. Yeah he is. He's kind
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: of an extreme fly ball pitcher. I know he has
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: like a pretty nasty curve ball, but I don't know
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: why his numbers last year. I think he was actually
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: better at home too, so it's kind of crazy, but
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: he has a four point eight two ERA at home.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: It's still not good, But for some reason, he's been
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: better in this horrible Triple A stadium than on the road.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: Even though pitchers don't do well in the stadium typically
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: a Lopez, I mean, he's struggled this year. He has
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: twenty one walks in twenty four to two thirds innings
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: with eighteen strikeouts. I mean, that is an unbelievable amount
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: of walks on top of twenty seven hits. You cannot
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: put guys on base like this man and get away
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: with that. You just can't. Uh So, I can't trust
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Lopez here, but Cleveland has never seen him before except
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Hoskins is over two of him, so he does have
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity edge. But I don't really think that's gonna
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: be enough. I don't think Lopez is really gonna actually
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: do that well here. This is a difficult game to
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: figure out, man, You know, I think Chaconi probably has
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: a little bit more upside. Uh. The money seems to
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: be coming in on the A's though they have seventy
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: They're in the minus one thirty five or so range
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: here on the money line. I don't want to deal
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: with it, man, I don't the totals at ten and
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: a half. There are definitely some arguments for the over here.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, both starting pitchers just aren't doing well this year,
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: so you know, that might be what I would go with.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: Even though Chaconi did do well in the stadium last year,
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I fully buy it. His matchup
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: numbers look bad. Lopez is struggling totals a ten and
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: a half, which is about where it should be in
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: a game like this. Money is hitting the over sixty
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash on
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: the over. If you go full game, you get an
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: unrested Cleveland bullpen that doesn't really have a good era
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: and an A's bullpen that I don't think is trustworthy either.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, an over is probably the best
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: way to play that game. In my opinion, I'm not
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: gonna actually do it, but that's probably what my lean
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: would be in that game. And then I don't know,
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I forget if I looked at Chaconi's he's got a
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: twenty five to thirteen strike out walk ratio and thirty
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: three hits a lot in thirty and a third inning,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: so he's put too many guys on base as well.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Not a good strike out walk ratio there. And by
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: the way, Cleveland has lost every start of his on
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: the season. They're owing six with Chaconi on the mound,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: so that makes it kind of difficult to want to
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: back Cleveland in that game. But I don't. Again, I
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: don't like Lopez either. Uh So that's what we have
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: going on there, Zach, what's up? Thanks for hanging out
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: all right? Slow Pez, I mean he does not throw hard.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you that his fastball is like probably in
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: the low nineties. Houston at Boston, the Red Sox got
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: a good start out of Bennett yesterday. I told you
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: that I thought it was gonna be one of those
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: guys the Red Sox were calling up Jake Bennett. Dude,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: they got to get rid of Brian Bao. Jake Bennett.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: He had like ten strikeouts yesterday. Man in a major
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: league debut against a pretty good offense like Houston's. That's
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: pretty good, dude, so but we got to figure out
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: today's game here. As far as the bullpens, the Red
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: Sox have the better bullpen, but they did use a
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: decent amount yesterday. I think Bennett started to lose it
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit around the fifth or sixth inning and
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox had to go to the bullpen. They
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: did have to use Chapman, although he hadn't pitched in days,
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: so they might use him again today. Red Sox used
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday Houston used two. Houston's bullpen has
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: been the worst in baseball though in basically every category.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Their era is six point five four and one point
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: seven whip. Their bullpen is so bad that it's gonna
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: be really difficult for any bullpen to knock them out
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: of the bottom spot. Red Sox two have the better bullpen,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: even though the rest advantage is not really in their favor. Here.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Red Sox had the fifth best bullpen whip and a
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: decent bullpen era. Red Sox offense has not been good.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: At twenty eighth, they got to turn this around Man
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Marcella and Meyer is starting to hit better. So the
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, you know, they have talent in this offense.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: They should be able to turn it around to some
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: extent and at least be a middle of the pack offense.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: But yes, Houston does have the better offense, their third
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: offensively right now, even though you look at their lineup
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: and you think that that's not possible, but it is.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: Spencer Arraghetty is pitching for Houston. He's been pretty good
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: so far to ERA one point one to one whip.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: He's been worse on the road, but only you know,
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: three point six ERA. It's not like that's bad. He's
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: made three starts and he's won every single one.
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: He beat the Yankees last time out. Seven innings, one run, allowed,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: eight strikeouts, one walk. He's pitched well, dude. The walks
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: have been the one concern with him. But the walk
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: number went way down in that number that stet in
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: that start against the Yankees. Twenty one to nine strike
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio. Again, that's not good. I mean it's
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: too many walks. So he's a little wild, but he's
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: pitched pretty well generally. He's only a lot of eleven
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: hits in eighteen innings, so he is in form right now.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: A lot of strikeouts means that he is fooling hitters,
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: so that looks good. And his numbers against the Red
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Sox are pretty good. In twenty two at bats. It's
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: not a huge sample, but nine to four strike at
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: walk ratio oh ninety one batting average and four fifty
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: eight ohps one extra base hit a Yoshidah home run there,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: but overall, Araghetti has good numbers against the Red Sox.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Connolly Early is pitching for the Red Sox. You know
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: he's I think he's pretty good talented young pitcher. Red
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: Sox have a lot of young pitching talent right now.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Two point eight four ERA, one point two whip pretty
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: good numbers, especially for a guy who's making basically this
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: is his first full season, assuming that he stays healthy.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: He's been worse at home, though, four point eight two
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: ERA at home. That's a little bit concerning. He has
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: way more of a sample size in his road games, though.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: He's only made a couple of home starts, and one
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: of them was against the Yankees. They're a tough lineup
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: to face man, and he was mediocre in that start.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, he kind of held the Red Sox in
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: the game. It's just the Red Sox gave him zero
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: run support in that outing. Early. Overall, I think he's
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: pretty good, except the walk number needs to go down. Man.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: He's got twenty eight strikeouts, fourteen walks, and twenty four
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: hits a lout in thirty one and two thirds innings.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: He's not easy to hit. But that walk number's got
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: to go down. That's the one concern. So he's walked
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: multiple guys in every outing except his most recent one.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: He only walked one in a pretty decent start and
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: a win against Baltimore, which was on the road. Though. Yeah,
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: I mean it's a little concerning that his two starts
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: at home have been a little bit worse. But generally
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: I think he's fairly good and Houston has never faced
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: it before, so he might have a little bit of
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: an extra advantage against Houston because they haven't seen him before.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: The money is I believe hitting the Red Sox here. Yeah,
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I agree with that. Seventy three
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on Houston, fifty five percent of the
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: cash on the Red Sox, you know, I mean rather
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: than try to figure out the side here. I don't
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: really have a good opinion on the side. The Red
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Sox are earned around minus one twenty five or so,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lead first five innings under Here we see
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: only eighty six percent of the cash and eighty six
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets and eighty two percent of the
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: cash on the under. I don't I don't really think
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: the under is getting public action here. I mean, again,
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: it's not like these pitchers are known to the public.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: You know, the total in the full game is at nine.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know if there's like wind blowing out in
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: Fenway here. I mean, Fenway usually isn't very affected by
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: the wind because it's not close to the water, So
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. But yeah, I mean I would go
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: first five under probably. I think you might be able.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: You might get good starting pitching for both starters here.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: So the total at nine in the full game is
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: kind of crazy. I mean, some of that's because Houston's
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: bullpen is absolute trash. So if you're gonna go Houston
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: in this game at all, do not go full game.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: I would say Red Sox have a bullpen edge, But yeah,
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: I think under first five there might be some value there.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: I think the total seems a little bit too high
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: for that pitching matchup, so that's what I would probably
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: do there. Philadelphia at Miami. Philadelphia won yesterday. Like I said,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Miami had a rest edge, but they were returning from
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: the Pacific Coast, which is not easy. Philadelphia had played
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: two games the game before that, but they still squeaked
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: out a win six to five yesterday. Philadelphia, I don't
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: think they're as bad as their start makes them look.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: And they fired their manager, you know, which might give
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: them a little bit of a spark. But Philadelphia's bullpen
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: is still not very good, and they used four relief
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. They've used a lot of bullpen arms the
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: last couple of days, man, so their bullpen is not
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: well rested right now. Miami's is more rested. They only
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: us two relief pitchers yesterday, so Miami has a bullpen
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: edge here. They're also eleventh and bullpen whip right now
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: in Philadelphia is twentieth within era and the fours, so
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Miami has a bullpen edge Philadelphia. Hitting wise, you might
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: be able to make an argument they might be. I
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, Miami, I mean Miami's fifteenth in hitting
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: right now, but they've fallen off from that hot start.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: And I think Philly has more talent in their offense,
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: but they're twenty seventh offensively right now. So Miami has
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: been the better hitting team this year. I just don't
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: know how long that's gonna last. Andrew Painter is pitching
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: for Philadelphia. He's a pretty talented young pitcher. I don't
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: know if maybe they rushed him up, but his numbers
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: are not that good right now. Five point two five ERA,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: one point five WHIP. He's really struggled on the road
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: eight point three to eight road ERA. That's concerning given
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: that he's on the road here, he hasn't faced the
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: easiest lineup. So he actually pitched really well in his
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: first start against Washington, and he had one other good
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: start against Arizona. So both of his good starts have
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: coming home. His road starts have been kind of bad though.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: One was against Atlanta. I mean, that's not that easy.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Maybe you give him a pass for that. The other
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: was against San Francisco and they won that game, but
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: he wasn't particularly good in that outing, which is concerning
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: because San Francisco hasn't hit well, and that's a pitcher
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark. Now, what is he gonna do against Miami?
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Miami's never seen him before. So sometimes
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: these young pitchers will have, like I said, an extra
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: advantage over these hitters that haven't seen the guy before. Yeah,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, painter could possibly do well here. But I
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: do worry about his road stats so far, just his
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: overall stats worrying me a little bit. But when you
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: dig into it, it's really he's been too hitable. Like
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: a twenty one to six strike out walk ratio is fine,
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: he's not walking a lot of guys. Thirty hits a
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: lot of twenty four innings is where the problem has come.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: He's just allowed too many hits. You know, he's got
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: to paint. He's got to become a painter and paint
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: the corners, you know what I mean, so that he's
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: not leaving too much of it over the plate, which
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: it seems like he is what he's doing so far.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: Max Meyer is pitching for Miami here. He's pitched pretty
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: well this year so far. Three point three ERA one
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: point two whip home road splits are not very significant
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: for him. Thirty three to twelve strike out walk ratio.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: It's not great, but it's fine. Twenty four hits a
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: lot in thirty innings. That's pretty good. He's allowed three
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in every one of his outings.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: He doesn't go that deep into his outings. He tends
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: to get right around five innings and then he is
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: taken out of the game. They're limiting his pitch count
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: a bit, it looks like, but he's a decent pitcher.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, more often than not, you're going to be
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: in the game if he's pitching, So you know, he's
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: been fine. Philly doesn't really have a whole lot of
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: experience against him. They have three hitters who've ever faced
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: it before. Only one hit, which is a double from Stott,
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: one strikeout, no walks, one for three average four twenty
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: nine oh ps. You can do the math there. Meyer,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Mike doo fine in this game. Man. I think he's
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: probably a little bit more trustworthy than Painter. Right now.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Money is hitting Philadelphia, though, And the one thing I
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: will say is that people are gonna look at the
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: records and you know, maybe think that Miami is the
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: better team. Philadelphia is better than the record looks. I'll
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: say that right now, but Miami does have better a
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: better bullpen at the very least Miami. You might be
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: able to argue that the better hitting teams still right
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: now too. Like I said, Miami has been decent at
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: home as well, ten and seven at home, so Miami
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: has a decent home road dichotomy for them playing at home.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: So in this game, I don't think I agree with
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: Philly here fifty percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: the cash on, then Miami is a slight favorite minus
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: one seventeen range there, I'll slightly lean to Miami. I mean,
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: there are some arguments to be made for a first
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: five under in this game as well, uh totals at
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: eight and a half for the full game, but I
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: don't want Philly's bullpen involved in that, so I would
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: go under first five is probably the way I would lean.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: You could see both starting pitchers do okay in that
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: outing with the unfamiliarity and whatever, but I think we
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: have more of a sample size to work with with Meyer,
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: so we know who he is a little bit more. Uh.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay got the win
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: yesterday against San Francisco, who had played two games the
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: day before that, and again, the teams that played two
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: games two days ago are San Francisco, Philadelphia, Houston, and Baltimore.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: Uh So, if that, you know, has a lingering effect
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: on the bullpens, it might. But San Francisco is the
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: best bullpen out of those four teams. Tampa Bay, their
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: bullpen seems to actually be turning it around finally, which
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: I kind of thought might happen because Tampa Bay's bullpen
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: was good enough last year that their numbers this year
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: made no sense. Tampa Bay used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: Tampa's like, Tampa's just a sneaky team, dude, Like they
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: have a good record and you look at their roster
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: and you're like, I don't know any of these people,
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Like how is this team any good at all? But
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, Tampa. They're an under the radar team,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: That's what I'll say. They're not a bad team. They
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: tend to have decent pitching that just goes under the radar.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: They're hitting is a little bit better than you might think.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: But as far as bullpen's, yeah, these three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, where are we at San Francisco only used one,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: so that's gonna help. That helps rest their bullpen. San
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: Francisco does have the better bullpen though right now they're
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: tenth in bullpen whip. Their ERA is quite good. San
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: Francisco definitely does have a good bullpen. Tampa's moved up
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: to eighteenth and whips, so they are on the rise
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: with their bullpend. They're not one of these bottom of
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: the barrel bullpens like they looked like they were early.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: But their ERA is still almost five. But again, I
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: think they're better than that number would suggest. Hitting wise,
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: San Francisco has been awful, second worst in offense. They're
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: they're a bad offense. Dude Devers is really struggling since
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: he's been there. That offense just can't get it together.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay's offense has actually been okay. Where are they at?
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: They're twentieth. They've fallen off of it though, which I
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: didn't really think Tampa's offense was that good. They were
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: hitting decently early in the year. They're better than you
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: would think, but they're not as good as they looked
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: early in the season. Landon Route is pitching for San Francisco.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: I think he's good.
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: I've given out multiple plays on his games that I
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: think they've basically all won, where I think most of
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: them have been unders. His numbers are pretty good, two
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: point five to five ERA, point nine to one WHIP.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: He has a point five I've ERA on the road.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: That is not what you'd expect because San Francisco, their
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: home park is a pitcher friendly park. But he's actually
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: been better on the road, which is crazy. He's been
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: good overall. He's had one bad outing, Crazily, it was
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: at home against the Mets, and if you throw that
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: start out, he's gone at least five innings in every
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: other outing. He's gone at least six in all but
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: one outing against the Dodgers besides that one against the Mets,
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: and he's allowed three or fewer earned runs, and all
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: the outings besides the one against the Mets, San Francisco
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: has won. All those outings. He's picked up a win
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: in all those outings besides the Mets one. Yeah, he's
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: pitching well, dude, And besides the Miami one, he's allowed
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: one or fewer earned runs in every outing except the
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: one against the Mets. Yeah, I mean, I think route
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: is pretty solid. His numbers against Tampa are not good though,
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: but it's a small eleven at bat sample size. But
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: they've knocked him around five forty five average, one thousand,
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: four ninety two oh ps, one walk, no strikeouts. So
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: can we trust route here? I don't know, man, this
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: is such a small sample size. I'm tempted to say
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: that I would. I think I would weigh Roupe's like
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: current form over these matchup numbers, you know what I mean,
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: Because it's just such a small sample and I don't
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: know when these numbers actually were accumulated. Raupe is pitching
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: better now than he has been at any point in
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: his career, so I think these numbers are they mean
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: a little bit less given that Griffin Jackson is getting
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: the start, if you want to call it that. For
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: the Rays, they're going with a bullpen game here. He's
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: been bad though, six point three five yr, one point
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: six' eight. WHIP i don't like any of, this but
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: he's he's a bullpen arm. Dude but he has a
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: twelve to eight strikeout walk ratio on eleven hits aloud
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: an eleven and a third. Innings that's pretty bad for
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: a guy that's mostly a, reliever and he's made a
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: couple of opening appearances as. Well the longest he's gone
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: is like two, innings two and a third. Innings that's
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: probably what you're gonna get out of him. HERE i don't, know.
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: Man his numbers Against San francisco are not that good
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: and thirty eight at, best two eighty nine batting average,
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: allowed seven to twenty ops seven to two strikeout walk.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Ratio But jack's, again he's not gonna be in the
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: game for that, long so that Means tampa's bullpen is
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: gonna pitch the majority of the. GAME i don't know
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: IF i love, that. MAN i THINK i actually would
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Prefer route, here even THOUGH i don't like his matchup.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: Numbers but, overall, again his numbers are. Good he's only
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: allowed eighteen hits in thirty five and a third. Innings,
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: ROUP i keep forgetting to talk about the full pitching lines.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Here his walks are really his only concern fourteen, walks
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: thirty seven. Strikeouts but, OVERALL i Like. Roup he's also
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: a ground ball, pitcher which allows him to pitch a
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: little bit better in hitter friendly. Ballpark so Though Tampa
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: bay is back in the trop so they're not In
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: Steinbrenner field this, year which is very hit her. Friendly
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: Tampa bay's home stadium is not as hitter. Friendly fifty
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: two percent of the tickets are On San. Francisco that
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: makes no sense to. Me seventy eight percent of the
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: cash On Tampa. Bay do you really think that the
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: public is playing a thirteen and Nineteen San francisco team
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: against the nineteen and Twelve Tampa bay team when it's
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: basically just picked the. Winner there's no. Way there's no
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: way the public is On San francisco. Here i'm, sorry
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: they're just. Not Tampa bay is good at home, though
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: nine to Four San francisco six and ten on the
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: road not. Good But i'm gonna Leaan San francisco slightly
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: in that. GAME i think they have the better, pitching
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: both with the starter and with the, bullpens And Tampa
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: bay's bullpend probably coming into the game pretty, early although
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: they're planning on doing that in this. Game the total
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: is also really low at seven and a. HALF i
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: don't know IF i would trust like an, under though
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: you know it's not on my. Card rubs matchup numbers
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: just do worry me enough THAT i don't want to
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: put it on my, card BUT i think he might
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: actually pitch fine in the. Game dirty, sock what's? Up
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: thanks for hanging? Out, Uh texas At, detroit this game is.
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: Fox we got the win with The rangers. Yesterday they
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: had a good start to the game four to, nothing
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: SO i guess first five innings would have been. Better
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: but when you Have texas's bullpen Against detroit's, bullpen why
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: would you go first five? Inning you know WHAT i.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Mean so luckily the bullpens got us. There texas's bullpen
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: did lock down and got us the win. There, Anyway
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: texas scored Against detroit's bullpen as, well So texas won
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: five to. Four. Yesterday detroit was in a return home,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: spot AND i talk about that when a team returns
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: home and they do bad in that first, game a
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: lot of times they will bounce back and do better
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: in the next. GAME i don't know about this. Though
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: detroit used four relief pitchers. Yesterday texas did use. Five
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: But texas does have the better. Bullpen texas's second and bullpen.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: Whip they're one of the. BEST i think they are
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: the best bullpen era at this. Point so there is
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: a debate to be had That texas is the best
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: bullpen in, baseball so they have the better. Bullpen detroit
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: is in the bottom third of. Bullpen's texas got the better,
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: Bullpend detroit has the better, offense so it's you, know
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: a lot Of texas games tend to be pitching versus.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: Offense you, Know texas is always on the pitching side
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: of those. Things in recent. Years detroit has the sixth
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: best offense based on, Ops texas is twenty. Third Kumar
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: rockers pitching For. Texas he has a decent three point
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: three EIGHTY, ra but his whip is a little bit
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: high one point three to. One he's been worse on
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: the road four point six SIX r on the, road
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: which makes. Sense pitching In texas has stadium is more pitcher,
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: friendly so you, know pitching there is. Better he's been
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: okay this. Year he hasn't been. Great twenty two to
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: ten strikeout walk race yet that strikeout rate is. Low
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: LIKE i thought he had decent strikeouts, stuff but that
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: hasn't really been the case this. Year too many. Walks
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: twenty five hits allowed in twenty six to two thirds
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: innings is not that bad, though SO i mean his
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: numbers aren't, egregious like he's allowed three or fewer earned
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: runs in every, outing So, texas this has been in
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: all of these. Games but they're not giving him run,
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: support so there is. THAT i don't know if run
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: support is a real. THING i, mean the argument usually
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: is that when a good, pitcher he's not that. Good
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: but when a good pitcher gets lower run, support the
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: argument is, basically the hitters just think they can kind
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: of sleep walk through the game because their best picture
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: is on the, mind you know WHAT i. Mean so
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: there might be something to be said about, that and
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: hitters focus more when they know they have to hit
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: better because there's like a bad picture backing them on the,
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: mound you know WHAT i. MEAN i don't know how
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: much weight to put into, that, THOUGH i don't really
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: put much weight into. That rocker has been inducing a
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: lot of ground balls this, year, though so that's that's,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: good you. Know, OVERALL i don't think he's that bad right.
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: Now though numbers it gets detroit or. Good it's only
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: fourteen at bats those small. Sample they only have one hitoff,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: him which is from When Seal perez four to three
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio seventy one average three oh seven,
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: ops so you, know he's unfamiliar to. Them maybe the
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: second time around they might figure him out a little bit.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: More BUT i don't know when he actually faced. THEM
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: i don't think it was this. Year, no it was,
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Not SO i don't. Know. Uh Keeter montero is pitching
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: for The. Tigers he's been pretty good FOR era one.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: Whip he's been better at home three point six eighty
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: r at, home so the home road splits Favorite montero
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: in this. Matchup he's got a pretty nice twenty three
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: to five strike out walk ratio this season that is,
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: good and only twenty two hits a lot in twenty seven,
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: innings so HE'S i think he's pretty, good, actually, MAN
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: i think he's kind of an under the radar pitcher right.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: Now he's allowed four or fewer earned runs in all
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: of his. Outings not. Bad Against. Texas his numbers are
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: not that good, though nineteen at, bets three to three
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: strike out walk, ratio two sixty three, average allowed nine
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: to forty three oh ps most of the. Damages McCutcheon,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: though two for four with two home, runs and he's
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: pretty old, Now SO i don't. Know Monte arrol might
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: actually do fairly well. Here we're looking at the money
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: coming in On detroit, here seventy two percent of tickets
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: eighty two percent of the cash on. THEM i think
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: if you're gonna go To, DETROIT i THINK i would
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: go first five, innings though you know they might be
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: bounced back mode. Here you're having to lay somewhere around
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty On. Detroit. HERE i don't disagree just
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: BECAUSE i think the home road splits Support. MONTERO i
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: like his numbers a bit better Than. ROCKERS i Know
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: rocker has better matchup numbers, here though that's what kind
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: of detracts me from. It there might be a few
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: arguments to be made for a first five under here as.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: Well total is at, eight some books at eight and
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: a half with juice to the. Under you, KNOW i
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: don't Like detroit's, bullpen so that's basically WHY i would
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: probably go first five under if you wanted to go.
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: UNDER i, MEAN i guess you could make the argument
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: for the full game Against texas bullpen is one of the,
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: best so maybe that Counters detroit's bullpen. ENOUGH i don't.
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: KNOW i THINK i probably Prefer detroit slightly in that,
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: game but it's not a game THAT i want anything
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: to do. With all, right next game is also A fox.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: Game we're basically at an hour right. Now i'm gonna
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: take a quick. Break i'll be back to talk about
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: the remaining five. GAMES i have one other play in
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: one of these, games and then there's one playoff game
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: in hockey IN nba today as the next round is
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: starting in the, Hockey So i'm gonna give out a
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: playing both of those. GAMES i don't want to feel
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Like i'm forcing a play in hockey AND, nba AND
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: i don't really do. THAT i just actually happen to
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: like both games well enough to have a. Play So
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: i'll be back in a. Second all, right zoom back in.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: Here next game up is the one that we lost,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: yesterday the Other. Fox uh, Game, NO i don't. Smoke,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: ACTUALLY i have huge sign as. ISSUES a blow in my. Nose,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: UH i get some more, water that's. It, yeah we
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: lost this game. Yesterday. Dodgers, dude they're on a three
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: game losing. Streak kind of. CRAZY i did not expect.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: THAT i still don't think The Saint louis team is
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: really any, good you, KNOW i expect them to fall
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: off at some. Point Saint louis used three relief pitchers,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: Yesterday dodgers used. Three seven to two lost yesterday for
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: The dodgers is. Ridiculous dodgers have been much improved in
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: the bullpen from last year to this. Year this, year
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: they're fourth in bullpen whip and THEIR era is pretty
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: good as. Well they're the better bullpen. Here Saint louis's
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen pretty BAD era over five other whip is almost
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: one and a. Half they're twenty fourth ranked in bullpen right.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: Now dodgers remained the number one, offense WHICH i think is.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: Correct Saint louis is seventh offensively right. NOW i think
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: those numbers are gonna. Regress, DUDE i do not Think
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: Saint louis is that, good but their offensive numbers might
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: not regress here because they're gonna be. Basically Roki sasaki
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: and he has not been good as a starter for
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: The dodgers this. Year he's got a six point three
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: FIVE era one point eight to one, win BUT i
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: think some of that is starting and some of that
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: is coming out of the. Bullpen he's been really bad
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: on the road eight point three to. Eight Roady RAM
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: i don't. KNOW i question his mental. TOUGHNESS i think
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: he's much much better as like a long to middle relief.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: GUY i think that's how they should be using. Him
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been very good. Man twenty two strikeouts to
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: twenty two and two thirds innings is, fine but thirteen,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: walks twenty eight, hits seven home runs, allowed this is
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: some pretty ugly. Stuff. Uh he has not been seen
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: before By Saint, louis so maybe that will help him
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: a little bit that he has the unfamiliarity edge, Here
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: BUT i can't Trust Sasaki. Man, yeah there's just not
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: a whole lot to like. Here michael McGreevy pitching For Saint.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: Louis he's actually basically been their best. PITCHER i mean
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: they don't. Know that's not saying that, much but they
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: don't have a much going on in their starting. Rotation
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: but two point nine to SEVEN era point nine whip
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: that's pretty. Good one point five to nine HOME, era
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: so he's good at. Home the home road splits significantly
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: favorite McGreevy in this starting pitching. Matchup he's got a
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: twenty one to five strike out walk, ratio which is pretty.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: Good twenty five hits allowed thirty three to third innings.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: Pitch these numbers are all pretty good except he's allowed
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: five home, runs which isn't that. Great but he's allowed
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: three or fewer earned runs in all but one outing
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: that he had on the road Against. Miami mcgreevy's been.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: Solid dude doesn't strike out a lot of, guys but
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: he really just doesn't put a lot of guys on.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Base numbers against The, dodgers, THOUGH i, mean this is
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: gonna be a tough matchup for. Him his matchup numbers
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: don't really look very good at twenty five at bats,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: three zero strike, out walk ratio, three twenty average allowed
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: eight forty oh. Ps those are some bad matchup numbers.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: There at some, point The dodgers' offense is gonna start
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: turning it, around, man and maybe this might be a
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: matchup where they do. It The dodgers are favored minus
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: one thirty. Range i'm gonna be, HONEST i don't Think
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: sasaki deserves to be favored like that on the. ROAD
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: i just, don't SO i. DON'T i would not agree
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: with taking The dodgers. HERE i, mean first Five Saint
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: louis makes sense BECAUSE i think McGreevy could definitely Outpitch sasaki,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: here But sasaki does have the unfamiliarity. Edge McGreevy doesn't
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: have good matchup, numbers so that kind of takes me
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: away from wanting to do. That, obviously this is not a.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: Game it's gonna be on my. Card fifty three percent
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: of the tickets are On Saint, louis fifty one percent
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: of the cash on The. DODGERS i still don't even buy.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: THAT i don't think the public is Playing Saint. Louis
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: the public might Play Saint louis against any other, team
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: but not against The. DODGERS i would imagine The dodgers
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: would be the public side against basically. Anybody ninety percent
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: of the tickets and only eighty seven percent of the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: cash on the over overlooks public with less of the
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: money hitting, it but the totals at eight and a.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: HALF i would actually lean over in this. GAME i
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: think that would probably be the best opinion THAT i
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: have on the. GAME i don't want to play, it
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: but mcgrievous bad matchup. Numbers sasaki is bad enough that
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: his unfamiliarity might not help him. Out and then you
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: get to the. Bullpen Saint louis's bullpen is a, Disaster
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: SO i don't. KNOW i think that's probably the WAY
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: i would, lean but it's it's not good enough by any.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: MEANS i DON'T i don't like that game very much at.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: ALL i don't. KNOW i, MEAN i don't think he's
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: going back To. Japan he didn't even pitch In japan
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: for that. Long he's only twenty four years. Old, OVER
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: i don't. Know that's it's a weak opinion for me
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: on the over in that. One next, Game atlanta At,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: colorado this is this is an interesting. One colorado lost
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: yesterday eight to. Six. COLORADO i, mean they've reached a
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: point where they're not really a total Dormat colorado used
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: three relief pitchers. Yesterday atlanta used three as. Well atlanta's
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: been really. Good they've been one of the best teams in,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: baseball shockingly because like sixty percent of their starting rotation
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: is injured and you know, whatever and they Have profi
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: suspended for the. Year, again it's crazy how Well atlanta's.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: Doing their bullpen is one of the top in. Baseball
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: they're number one in. WHIP i think they're probably like
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: a top three or four. Bullpen in, actuality they're a good.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: Bullpen The rockies bullpen isn't, bad but it's not good.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: Either they're at. Seventeenth they're not one of the worst bullpens.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: Though this game is in course field, Though Remember atlanta
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: has the second best offense so, far which is still
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: very surprising to. Me The rockies where they. At they've
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: hit okay this. Year they're at ninth, offensively and they
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: do hit better at. Home but this pitching matchup Man
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Chris sale is pitching For. Atlanta he's still. Good we,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: know you, know he's Future hall Of fame. Material two
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: point three to one era this year point nine to one.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: Whip he's still doing. It he's been worse on the road,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: though five point seven to three ROAD, era but it's
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: kind of a small sample, size So i'm not ready
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: to say that salees bad or. Anything he had one
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: bad start and that's what's skewing the. Numbers could be
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: kind of a fluke because his next road start he
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: dominated In. Philadelphia so the one bad start he had
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: was Against, anaheim And atlanta's won all the rest of his,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: starts and in, fact he has won all the rest
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: of his starts pitching in Corps. FIELD i think he
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: pitched there as recently as last year and he dominated. Them,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: yeah he pitched there In april thirtieth last, year and
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: he pitched really. Well in that. Start he had ten,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: strikeouts no, walks went seven, innings five hits, allowed tour in.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: Runs we Know sale is a dominant pitcher. Man we
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: know that even at this age of thirty, seven he
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: still is Red sox should have kept. Him thirty eight
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: nine strike out walk, ratio twenty three hits, alloted thirty
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: five innings this. Year really good numbers numbers Against. Colorado
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: they're not as good as you might, think but you
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: know they're not. Horrible thirty five at, bats fifteen to
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: one strike out walk. Ratio that's pretty. Dominant two fifty
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: seven batting, average but a slightly high seven to sixty three.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: Ops you. KNOW i, mean A doyle has a home,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: run that's kind of factoring into. That but if you
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: look at these, numbers it's not like any particular guy
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: really wrecks him or. Anything so, Yeah sales should pitch well.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: Here the really interesting part of this matchup Is Chase
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: dollander for The. Rockies he's one of their top pitching
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: prospects to rise up through their organization, recently and he's
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: been surprisingly good and nobody's been talking about. Him he's he,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: struggled you, know in his first couple of years in the.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: Majors JUST i think he was going back and forth
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: between the. Majors actually it was only last. Year he
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: didn't d well last, year BUT i think he was
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: back and forth between miners and majors. Whatever but this
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: year he seems to have figured something. Out two point
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: two FIVE era one. Whip he's got a one point
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: seven FOUR era in course field this. Year, now, granted
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: a lot of this has been working out of the,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: bullpen but since his first appearance where he allowed four
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: earned runs out of the bullpen and got tagged for
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: three home, runs which was on the, road by the,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: way he has allowed no more than one and run
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: in any of his outings since. Then he's allowed no
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: home runs since. Then that's crazy given that he's made
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: multiple appearances in course field since, then although actually only,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: Two so maybe you have to dial it back a
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: little bit On dollander because he hasn't pitched in course
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: field that, much but he made one start here and
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: he Dominated San, diego and then he did really well
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: against The mets in his last outing as, well sixteen
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: to three strike out walk right over those two, outings
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: which those were both either starts OR i think he
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: might have had an opener coming in in front of.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: Him you gotta worry about that a little. Bit he's pitching,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: TODAY i would, assume but The rockies might put an
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: opener in front of him. AGAIN i don't know if
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: they will or. Not but you look at his overall.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: Numbers these are pretty. Good he's got more ground balls
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: than fly, balls which is good for a guy who's
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: gonna be pitching in. Course thirty nine to nine StrEG
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: a walk, ratio twenty three hits a lot in thirty two.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: Innings this guy might actually be the real. Deal numbers
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: Against atlanta are not particularly. Good they have seen him
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: before last, YEAR i, assume actually it might have been
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: this year because he's pitched so. Much, Right, NO i
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: don't think they've faced him this. Year, no these teams
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: haven't played yet this. YEAR i don't believe thirty four
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: at bats Against atlanta seven to five stregu walk ratio
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: is not that. Good two sixty five batting average allowed
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: seven forty one. Ohps those numbers are not, horrible they're
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: pretty much. Average they're not good, Either But donalder might
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: actually be able to pitch well. Here, man if those
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: numbers were when he was much worse than he looks
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: like he is right, Now he's really in good form right.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: Now this. Game you, know it's course. Field they're gonna
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: give you a high total in a course field, game
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: even Though chris sales on the Mound braves are minus
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: two twenty. Five by the, way it looks like it's.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: Undecided SO i Think donander is going to get a
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: starter's workload, here but he might be coming in after an.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: Opener so that's what you have to worry about. Here you,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: know there are some arguments to be made For colorado,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: here because this is just you're obviously paying a tax
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: On atlanta, here like laying that price on the road
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: is just pretty much a no go for any baseball.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: GAME i. Know it's one of the best teams in
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: baseball with one of their best starting pitchers on the.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: MOUND i, know but that's why you're paying a huge
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: tax for. It so there's definitely an argument for The
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: rockies run line in this game to keep the game.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: Close their bullpen actually isn't really that bad, either so
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: you could go full game on that, Maybe BUT i
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: think a first five under makes a decent amount of sense.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: Here if you know the dollander is going to come
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: in for most of those first five, innings you know
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: WHAT i, mean you have to dodge whoever the opener
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: is gonna be For. Colorado but the total here is
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: like ten or nine and a half on the full. Game,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: obviously it's a little bit low for A cords game
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: Because Chris sale is, Pitching but if it's gonna Be
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: sale And, dollander that could definitely be a lower scoring
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: early part of the.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: Game.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: Man SO i think under first five innings you're probably
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: gonna find a five on that out there that might
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: be you might be able to play that and win that.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: One so that would probably be my lean in that.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: One you'd have to go action on, it, though because
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: you don't you can't really say listened starters must start
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: like that's not even an option right now Because colorado's.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: Undecided but based ON espn Listing dollander, here WHAT i
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: think this means is that there's gonna be an opener
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: pitching for one, inning and Then dollander will come in after.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: That that would be my, Guess but it's a little
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: bit of a, RISK i, guess because you're not sure
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: that that's gonna, happen and, obviously if you want to
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: go under first, five you're banking On donander being the
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: guy who's gonna be out. There next game up will
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: be one of my, plays which Is White sox In
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: San diego And schulz pitch pretty well again, yesterday SO
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: i had that game. Correct did not put it on my,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: car though with The White sox first five, innings that
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: was a winner. Yesterday this, game we're doing something a little.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: Different it is the first five play BECAUSE i hate
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: The White sox. Bullpen we're gonna go under first five
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: in this. ONE i founded it four and a half
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: at minus one eighteen out, THERE i, mean you're mostly
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: probably gonna find fours out. There some books are charging
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: like minus one thirty for the under four and a,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: half though at minus one THIRTY i would probably make
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: it under four instead and hope for the. BEST i
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: guess this was at the book that starts with THE
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: M i think The lion, Book i'm pretty sure is
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: what was giving me this. Number the number was a
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: little bit all over the, place BUT i like the
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: under in this. One in the first. FIVE i don't
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: want to deal with the bullpens pretty much entirely because
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: The White sox bullpen is. Bad White sox used three
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers. Yesterday San diego used. Two San diego's bullpen
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: actually has been struggling, recently ALTHOUGH i still think they're
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: one of the best, bullpens but they're twelfth right now
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: in bullpen. Whip their era is over. Four that does
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: worry me a little. Bit White sox bullpen is really
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: something you probably want to avoid. Though bottom four. Bullpen
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: their era is almost five over a one and a half.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: Whip that's. Bad, Offensively, interestingly The White socks have actually
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: been hitting a little bit. Better they're at nineteenth in
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: ops In San diego's twenty, fifth so we're not looking
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: at two offenses that could really light it. Up, WELL i,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: MEAN i guess they, can but they typically. Don't and,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: again we're gonna pitcher friendly ballpark in a night game,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: here so that is more underconducive as. Well it's gonna
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: be sixty eight DEGREES i, guess so it's not gonna
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: be a hot weather game, here which helps. Us but
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: obviously we're looking at the starting pitching. Matchup Sean burke
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: is pitching for The White. Sox he's actually been pretty.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: Good a three point two to ONE era one point
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: oh four. Whip, NOW i will clarify THAT i believe
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: they put an opener in front of him a couple
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: of times this, year so you may want to play
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: this action here just in case they do. That although
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: the opener might worry me a little bit BECAUSE i
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: don't know who it's gonna. Be but Hopefully burke just starts,
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: them or maybe you still just want to. Go starting
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: pitchers must, start and then if they do put an
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: opener in front Of, burke maybe, that's you, know iffy
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: enough that you just want to drop the bet and
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: then it just doesn't. COUNT i don't, know But burke
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: has actually been not bad this. Year three point two
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: to ONE era one point oh four, whip twenty four
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: to seven strike a walk, ratio twenty eight hits allowed
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: in thirty three to two thirds. Innings these numbers are
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: all pretty. Solid he's allowed more than three ear runs only,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: once there was a four run outing Against Tampa. Bay
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: he's definitely been pitching well enough to keep his team in,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: games and that's what we're asking, here, like just hold
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: the opposing offense down enough to get us this. Under
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: his numbers Against San diego were also. Good in twenty
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: nine at bats eight to one StrEG a walk ratio
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: two pH seven batting average allowed five forty four, ohps
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: SO i like that as. Well and then on the other,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: Side Michael king is pitching For San. Diego he's one
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: of their better pitchers for. Sure two point four to ONE,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: era one point zero four, whip that's some good. Stuff
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: he's got a point eight TWO era at home this,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: year so generally he does pitch well at, home which
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: makes sense because it's a pitcher friendly. Park he's a
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: lot more than tour and runs only once in a
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: four run outing on the road At Fenway. Park his
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: problem is the. Walks he's gotta fix. That but thirty
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: four to fifteen strike a walk razio only twenty hits
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: allowed in thirty three and two thirds, innings so he
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: does walk too many. Guys but he also doesn't allow
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: a lot of hits at, all so it does kind
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: of balance out a bit so that his whip is
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: still good enough that he overcomes his. Wildness and his
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: numbers against The White sox are pretty good in twenty
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: three at. BATS i know we're not looking at huge samples,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: here but six to four strike out walk, ratio one
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: seventy four batting average allowed for seventy. Ops these are good. Numbers.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: Man SO i like the matchup numbers on both sides. Here,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: yeah DID i miss anything in that? ONE i don't
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: THINK i. Did, Yeah SO i like the under first fiest.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: One that's what we're going. With the money looks like
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: it's not agreeing ninety three percent of the tickets and
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of the cash on the. Under BUT
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: i don't, know do you really think the public is
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: coming in and playing an under in A White SOX
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: U San diego? GAME i, MEAN i know they don't
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: think these offenses are that. Good they probably Think San
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: diego's is better than it, is but they don't know
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: Who burke. Is they kind of know Who king. IS i,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: MEAN i don't. Know i'm not gonna put much weight
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: into these. Numbers the money is also Hitting San, diego
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: BUT i don't know IF i necessarily agree seventy percent
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: of tickets eighty five percent of the cash On San
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: diego they're at minus one ninety or so at most
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: of the. BOOKS i think there might be some value
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: in grabbing The White sox first five, innings you, know
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: maybe Grabbing burke to hang in there With. King but,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: again OBVIOUSLY i think the better way to do this
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: is the first five under at four and a half
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: is pretty crazy given that the full game total is
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: around seven and a. Half it's at eight and a
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: couple of books four and a. HALF i was SURPRISED
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: i saw this, number to be, honest it's a pretty good.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: Number four and a half under four and a half
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: at minus one. Eighteen most of the books had it
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: at minus one. Thirty but AGAIN i THINK i would
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: still play it at under four in this, one which
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: usually when you get a seven and a half, total
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: you get a three and a half on the first
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: five inning. Under SO i do think it's a decent number,
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: There so let's do. It, murakami he is. Good The
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: Red sox probably should have signed. Him mets At anaheim
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: is AN espn unlimited. Game anaheim Lost yes today so
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: The anaheims lost seven games in a. Row, basically it's
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: like which one of these teams wants to lose more right?
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: Now The mets have actually been playing better Than anaheim
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: has been in the over the past week or. So
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: anaheim's bullpen is very bad and they used four relief pitchers.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: Yesterday The mets is the, better they have the better.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: Bullpen they use four relief pitchers. Yesterday, though bullpen, wise
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: The mets are eighth in Bullpen. Whip their E ra
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: is below. Four decent bullpen for The, Mets anaheim terrible,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: bullpen second worst and whip whip almost at won six
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: and then the E ra almost at. Six that's pretty.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: Bad so, yeah definitely want to Fade anaheim's bullpen with
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: whatever you do. Here even though The mets offense is
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: still the worst in baseball right, now but, again injuries
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: have definitely plagued their season a. Bit they're better than
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: what they look like so. Far at the very. Least
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: anaheim has been the better offense so. Far they're at
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: tenth right now, offensively So, anaheim, yeah they do have
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: the better, offense but they're gonna have to go up
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: Against nolan, McLain who is probably The mets best starting pitcher,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: here even though he's really. Young he's pitching really. Well
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: two point five to FIVE r point eight FIVE, whip
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: one point four to SIX era on the, road so
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: he does pitch well on the road so. Far forty
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: five to ten strike out walk ratio that's pretty. Elite
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: twenty hits a lot in thirty five and a third,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: innings high strikeout, rate not a high walk. Rate low
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: hit rate as, well he's been really. Good he's allowed
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: more than tour in runs only once in a three
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: run outing where he's still had double digit strikeouts against
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: The Minnesota. Twins McClain is good man And anaheim has
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: never faced it, before so he's got an extra edge
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: where he has the unfamiliarity going for him as. WELL
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: i think he's gonna do well in the game. GENERALLY
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: i think that's what you would Bank you should bank
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: on here because he rarely. Doesn't to this, Point Red
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: Debt mersus pitching For, anaheim he's fairly. Good four point
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: two to EIGHTY, ra one point ONE. Whip he's been
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse at home, though four point seven
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: to SIXTY ra at. Home this is a little bit
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: more of a hitter friendly. Ballpark he has pretty good
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: numbers overall, though thirty six to nine strike at walk
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: ratio that is, good twenty eight hits allowed in thirty
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: three and two thirds. Innings all these numbers are pretty.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: Good he's allowed more than three ear runs twice this.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: Season one of those was to The, braves which you
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: can kind of give him a pass for. That he
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: pitched really well against The yankees on the road as.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: Well Dead murs has been fairly. Good his numbers against
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: The mets are not good, though in fifty one at,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: bats Although semion has a ton of at bats against
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: him Because semian was in his. DIVISION i Think semian
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: was on The Texas. Rangers that's why he has so
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: many at bats against. Him but overall fifty one at,
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: bats four thirty one batting average, allowed one thousand and
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: one to sixty nine oh, ps eight to three strike
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: at walk. Ratio these numbers have me, worried but it
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: is Mostly semian doing all themage thirteen for thirty one
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: with two, doubles a triple home, run and three walks
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: off him and six. Strikeouts so if he can pitch around,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: him he might actually do, okay but some of the
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: other guys have hit him okay as, well, though SO
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: i worry about the matchup numbers, there you. KNOW i
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: think it's just it seems too, obvious, maybe but probably
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: the safer option is to just lean to The. Mets.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: Here the money doesn't. Agree he's sixty percent of tickets
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: on The, mets seventy two percent of the cash On.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: ANAHEIM i want pregames screen to come, back, man BECAUSE
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: i can't read Wager talk's, Numbers like so many of
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: these numbers just disagree with WHAT i. Think BUT i
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: think if you play The, mets you're gonna get the
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: better pitching throughout the, Game you're gonna get the better matchup. Numbers,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: well unfamiliarity with. McClain i think he's the better starter,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: Anyway plus you get the better. BULLPEN i think that's
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: my preference. Here The mets are slight favorite on the
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: road here minus won twenty five or. So that would
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: be my lean in that, game would Be. Mets money,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: line The. Mets they're spending a ton of. MONEY i,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: mean that's the case of a lot of these. Teams
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: what about The Red Sox John henry needs to get
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: the fuck out of. Town oh the one thing THAT
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: i was forgetting Is Sean. BURKE i didn't look at
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: his home road. Splits he is a little bit worse
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: on the road four point five to eighty four point FIVE.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: Era that's not, horrible though it's a small, Stample but
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: that's kind of the one concern is That burke his
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: road numbers are worse than his home, Numbers so we're
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: banking on the under here in that. Game but those
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: were Against milwaukee And, arizona and he actually pitched pretty
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: well in The arizona, game So i'm not as concerned
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: about it because those are decent. Offenses arizona is a
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly ballpark And San diego. Isn't so just to
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: clarify that last game on THE mlb slate Is Kansas
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: city In. SEATTLE i don't even want to talk about.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: IT i have no idea how the starting pitchers both
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: got obliterated in the first inning yesterday and then they
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: both settled down and had decent. Outings so isn't that just?
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: Great it's just a fucky you to, me, basically And
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: seattle lost the game, too even THOUGH wu was, starting
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: really really. Ridiculous you would not EXPECT wu to have
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: two really rough outings in a. Row it makes no. Sense,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: Mariners yeah are at home, here they, ARE i think
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: a little bit better at. Home they're pitching is usually
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: better at. Home, yeah, well Mister, pinsey you for some
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: reason root for the most despicable teams that are out,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: there and it makes no sense to me EXCEPT i
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: guess it was that your father rooted for The yankees or.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: Whatever so at least that's. FINE i don't know why
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: the fuck you root for the absolutely Horrendous. Lakers they're
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: not gonna get swept by The. Thunder The. Thunder i'm
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: gonna probably go against The thunder In game. One The
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: thunder have been off for way too. Long but, no The. Lakers,
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: yeah The lakers are not gonna beat The thunder in
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: a seven game, series and rightfully, so because fuck The.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: Lakers but, yeah The Houston rockets were just a dead
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: team in that series and The lakers still almost blew.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: It so, yeah that's how good The lakers. Are their
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: defense isn't good. Enough houston didn't Have durant for basically
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: that entire series. Too what are we looking at, Here?
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: Seattle has they used three relief pitchers. Yesterday they've been
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen Over Kansas. City Though Kansas city is,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: Four seattle is sixteenth and bullpen he, ray they have
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen right. Now Kansas city's bullpen they've been
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: a bullpen you want to. Avoid they've been really, bad third,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: worse one point five to seven WHIP era in the mid.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: Fives basically that's. Bad don't want anything to do with
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: This Kansas city bullpen Here man hitting wise is kind of,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: interesting And Kansas city's kind of falling off in that department. Too, actually,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: no they moved back. Up they're, thirteenth So Kansas city
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: actually has moved up a bit, again so they've they've
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: been hitting pretty. Well seattle. SIXTEENTH i still Think seattle
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: is the better offense thought of these two. Teams Seth
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: lugo is pitching For Kansas. City he's had a good
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: season so. Far two point six THREE, era one point
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: one seven. Whip he has a point six y nine
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: road E. RA i know it's a small sample so,
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: far but he's been pitching really well on the. Road
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: he had his worst outing of the season by far
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: in his last outing Against anaheim so you, know, uh
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: maybe he's falling out a form. Here had he got
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: rocked in that, game he allowed fourteen hits and six
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: and a third. Innings that's really. Bad but he was
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: really good in all of his other starts this year pretty.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: Much SO i know the advanced analytics guys Hate lugo
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: and they're gonna be, like, hey we're, right he had
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: one really bad. Start i'm not so sure about. THAT
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: i worry, that, yeah he might be out of form right,
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: now but, overall his numbers are pretty. Good thirty one
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: to eleven strike a walk, ratio thirty three hits a,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: lot and thirty seven and two thirds. Innings there's not
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: a whole lot that you can really knock, here except
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: that he is too much of a fly ball. Pitcher
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: but he's only a lot of one home run this.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 2: Season it was in that outing Against. Anaheim lugo against
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: The mariners has good numbers and forty one at bats
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: eleven to two strikeout walk, ratio one seventy one average
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: allowed for seventy eight. OPS i think it is more
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: likely That luga bounces back. Here he has a decent,
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: matchup pitcher friendly, park and he's been good on the
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: road this. Year Emerson, handcock his pitcher For. Seattle he's
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: been good this year. Too man he seems to have
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: finally found figured something out basically in his. Career seems
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: to be taking off a two point eight SIX era
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: point nine to eight. Whip he's been. Good HIS era
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: has actually been a little bit worse at. Home Usually
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: seattle's pitchers pitch better at home in the pitcher friendly,
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: environment but it's still not even. Bad three point three
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: eight HOME. Era he's allowed no more than three on
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: runs in any of his outings on the, season thirty
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: two to six strikeout walk ratio on twenty eight hits
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: allowed in thirty four and two thirds. Innings all these
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: numbers are pretty goo Good. HANCOCK i, MEAN i think
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: you could probably trust him at this, point but his
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: numbers against The royals are not. Good in forty two at,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: bats three to, three strike out walk, ratio three ten average,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: allowed eight thirty two. Ops so that's a little bit.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: Iffy but then, again those numbers were not this, year
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: And hancock seems to be better this year than he
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: has been in the, past SO i think you have
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: to weigh these numbers a little bit less THAN i normally.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: Would that was in a forty two at bats sample,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: size by the, Way my you, know my feeling on
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: this game is, that you, KNOW i know we didn't
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: get the underwright, yesterday BUT i THINK i would lean
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: under in this. Game the totals at seven and a,
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: HALF i, Mean Kansas city's bullpen is so bad ON
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: i KNOW i wanted to go full game with it.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: Yesterday maybe you go first five innings under, here it
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: would probably be at about three and a. HALF i
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: think the starting pitchers could get you. There it looks
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: like fifty to fifty on the tickets and fifty nine
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash On. SEATTLE i don't know IF
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: i liked, that even THOUGH i Think hancock is probably
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: the better of these two pitchers as far as current,
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: form but matchup numbers don't look that good for, Him
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: so that still worries me a little, bit even THOUGH
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: i did SAY i kind of like the first five under.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: Here seattle's that about minus won forty on the. Price,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: YEAH i don't love the, game BUT i think the
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: best angle is the first five under. There all, right
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: let's go TO. Nhl there's one game as the next
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: round starts With philadelphia At. Carolina carolina is a massive
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: favorite to win this. Series they're like a minus three
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: thirty favorite to win the. SERIES i have them winning
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: it in my, bracket of, course and OBVIOUSLY i Think
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: carolina is gonna win the. Series. Philadelphia they just beat
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: a finesse team In. Pittsburgh you, Know pittsburgh did not
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: match up well Against. Philadelphia philadelphia is a good goaltending,
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: team a good fundamental, team a good defensive, team but they're.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: Inexperienced carolina is the far more experienced. Team carolina came
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: into the goal, situation came into the, PLAYOFFS i, mean
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: with their goaltending situation a little bit, questionable but they've
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: decided to go with the Veteran. Anderson he's been. Good
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: they just Swept. Ottawa uh So carolina is off to the.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: Races And carolina is Not. Pittsburgh you, know they're not
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: In they're not a finesse team that's missed the playoffs
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: the last few, years you know WHAT i. Mean carolina
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: is in the playoffs every year, recently they go pretty
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: deep in the playoffs every. Year and they're not a finesse.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: Team they're a defensive. Team. Good, fundamentally they seem to
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: have found out, that you, know figured out their. Goaltending,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: again all that being, said that makes it sound LIKE
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: i Like carolina in this, game BUT i actually don't.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: Know we're actually gonna do the opposite. Here this is
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: a completely situational. Play we're actually gonna take the flyers
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: in this. Game make it a split bet plus one
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: and a half pucks the goal of the puck line
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: minus plus one and a half goals minus one thirty
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: five the rest of the bet on the plus one
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: eighty five money. Line the split came out to, THIS
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: i can show you. It it came out to a
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: plus one twenty one odds. Wager so you're basically playing
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: a plus one puck line at a slight underdog, price
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: playing to win one. Hundred it wound up being forty
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: seven basically of it on the minus one thirty five
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: part of, it and then whatever you win on that
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: you put that on the rest of. It so if
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: they lose by, one you'll split the. Bet BUT i
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: like this man for a couple of. Reasons even though,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: YES i Think carolina is gonna win the. Series if
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: you look At carolina series Against. Ottawa it was a close.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: Series even though it was a. Sweep the games were. Close,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: Dude ottawa put up a good. Fight AND i know
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: hockey is a close game, whatever but we're banking on
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 2: this game to be close here at the very least
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: to push the bet for. Us but the two PROBLEMS
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: i have With carolina. Won this series was not as
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: lopsided as you would, Think like it was a, sweep
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: so you think it was a dominant performance From, carolina
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: but it really. Wasn't even though they won every, game
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: every game was. Close then the other thing is the
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: main part of this handicap is you know WHAT i always,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: say rest versus. RUST i do not like teams that
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: have been off for a. Week carolina has not placed
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: its Last, saturday and that could that could develop Rust.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: Man when a team sweeps like, THAT i think they're
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit overvalued coming into the next.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: Round AND i think they're gonna be, rusty so their
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: offensive rhythm might not be there early. On if you
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: want to Play philadelphia in the first period of this,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: game you could do that, too like Take philadelphia on
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: like the, half or just take them on the money. Line,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: maybe you, know in the in the first. Period you
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: could do. THAT i don't know what the price is on,
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: it but that's definitely an option to Go philadelphia first period.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: Here But i'm gonna do a split that full. Game so,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: AGAIN i think the rust might Affect carolina early. On
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: the rhythm might not be there early. On, again not
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: playing for a week is not a good, thing And
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: philadelphia their, MOMENTUM i think is going to. Carry philadelphia
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: just played On, wednesday so they played much more. Recently
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: it looks like they had a closer. Series They they
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: really did pretty well Against. Pittsburgh they definitely were the
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: better team in that. Series even though they lost two.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: Games they really did have the upper. HAND i think
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: they were actually more dominant in that series than you
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: would think based on the fact that it went four to.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: Two SO i like that. Too it's a little bit. Misleading,
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: yes they had to win with an overtime goal in
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: the last, game which is a dramatic win against your,
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: rival you, know but this is the. Playoffs you, Know
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: they're not gonna Overlook carolina, here and, WELL i Think
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: carolina will win the. SERIES i don't like the spot.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: HERE i like momentum For. PHILADELPHIA i like playing on
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: the team that has, momentum that played more, recently you,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: know versus the team that has too much time. Off
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: we're gonna do, It, philadelphia and the money doesn't totally.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: Agree But carolina looks like they're a very public. SIDE
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: i don't, know ninety percent of, tickets ninety three percent
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: of the cash is two thirty minus two forty. Favorite
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: and while, yes Again carolina should win the, series the
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: experience should win out in the. SERIES i don't think
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a sweep For, carolina you know WHAT i.
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: MEAN i think it might be like a four to two,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: series but this might be one of the games they
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: actually struggle. In so it's all about the situational set.
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: Up and THEN i think If carolina does happen to
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: lose this, GAME i Think carolina is gonna zigzag and
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: win in the next, game you know WHAT i. Mean that's.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: Bait like the, playoffs you, know there's some predictability to.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: It that's kind of how it. WORKS i know it
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: hasn't worked in THE. Nba we're four to one and
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: one in THE nba play in THE nhl playoffs, though
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: so hopefully this works out FOR, us AND mlb has
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: been KEEPING us afloat as. Well total in this game
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: is five and a. HALF i don't really have an.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: OPINION i, MEAN i GUESS i think under is maybe
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: slightly where The, Lucus like the money is kind of
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: indicating that. Way With carolina having that much time, OFF
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: i could see the under being the. Case both teams
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: seem to have figured it out from from a goaltending.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: Perspective they're both pretty good on, depfense so, yeah the
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: style seems to be pretty conducive to an. Under plus
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: with the rust possibly coming in On, carolina maybe an
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: under early on makes sense as, well you know WHAT i.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: Mean BUT i think it's also correlated To philadelphia covering,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: though because if it's a closer, game obviously it's more
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: Likely philadelphia has a chance to cover this. Thing so
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: that's what we're. Doing hopefully we avoid the empty net
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: goals there and then we HAVE. NBA i don't even
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: want to talk about THIS nba Game philadelphia At. Boston
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: it looks like the money is coming in On. PHILADELPHIA
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: i do not agree with. It we're gonna lay the
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: points with The. CELTICS i think we just have to do.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: It it looks like it's minus eight for the most
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: part out there right, now eight and a. Half some
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: of the books do have a seven and a, half
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: THOUGH i saw multiple books still had the seven and
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: a half out, there AND i think the line is
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: just too. Low, Dude we're gonna do, it and we
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: need to get back on track with THE nba. Playoffs
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: usually the zigzag. WORKS i know it's fifty two per,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: tickets sixty nine percent of the cash On. PHILLY i
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: don't agree with. It you, know the public to me
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: seems like they're On philadelphia at this. Point they're very recentcy.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: Biased this game is ON nbc And. Peacock the fact
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: still remains that The celtics are the better team The.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: Celtics you, know they have dropped two games in a
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: row now is a, favorite which usually doesn't. Happen and
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: The celtics losing three games in a row in the
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: last few. Years The celtics have only done that like
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: maybe four or five, times and all of them are
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 2: in the regular. Season they've never blown a three to
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: one series lead in the history of the. Team, obviously
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: they've never done in you, know in The, yeah, yeah
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: they've never done in the history of the. Team so,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: yeah so they've never blown a three to one series.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: Lead they're back at, Home they've had horrible shooting performances
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: in both. Games SO i think the biggest zigzag part
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: of this is The celtics should shoot. Better they lost
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: both these games because they're missing it under, threes and
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: then they did not, adjust you know WHAT i. Mean
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: but the last time they were at, home it's extremely.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: Misleading they should have won this. Game they were winning
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: that game by double digits in the third quarter In game,
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: five and then you, remember they had the worst fourth
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: quarter you'll ever. See they went five minutes without. Scoring
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: they missed fourteen field goal attempts in a. Row it's
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: just such an. Outlier. DUDE i don't think that's gonna
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: happen again at. Home AND i know they had another
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: bad quarter in The philadelphia, game the third. QUARTER i.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: THINK i just think as long as The celtics avoid
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: a complete train wreck of a, quarter they should be
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: able to get this. Done and the line at seven
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: and a half is. RIDICULOUS i, MEAN i know It's game,
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: seven so the line should be a little bit, lower
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: but this is. Off you, know this is obviously Still recncy.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: Biased two games, ago The celtics at home were like
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: whatever they, were whate were they eleven and a half
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: twelve point, favorite and now it's seven and a. HALF i,
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: mean come, on the line should probably be around nine
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: and a half in this, game maybe, ten which it
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: does look like some of the money is driving the
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: number up a little, bit so we're gonna lay. IT
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: i think it's a discounted price on The celtics. Here
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: they should get it. DONE i, Mean i'm gonna, probably you,
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: know not even be alive anymore if they don't win it,
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: here you know WHAT i. Mean they had the series
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: completely wrapped, up up three to, one and they had
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: a double digit lead in the second half Of game.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: Five they should have put it, away and the fourth
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: quarter was an absolute. Disaster, again The celtics do live
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: and die by the, three but they usually zigzag that
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: and they usually shoot better after they have an off,
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: night and they've had two off nights in a, row
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: which typically does not. Happen the series that The celtics
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: have lost, recently they fell behind early in those, series
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: so they did not blow the lead in this in
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: a series or they're, winning you know WHAT i. Mean
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: so that's what we're gonna go with. Here, yeah And Jason,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: TATUM i, know there's the whole. Thing he injured his.
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: Calf that's another reason why they lost by as much
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: as they did in the last. Game tatum didn't play
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: for half the third, quarter in the entire fourth, quarter
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: he injured his, calf AND i think it was because
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: he was using His it was his calf opposite his,
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: achilles you, know the injured achilles on the other leg
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: from where this calf injury. IS i think it was
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: because probably he WAS i don't, know favoring the achilles
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: a little bit or. Something he injured the calf on
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: the other. Leg but whatever it, is this is what
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: we're going. With philadelphia deserves to lose with how dirty
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: they've been playing, anyway, man you, know the refs might
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: help The celtics a little bit more in a home
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: game like. This, PLUS i think the storyline you might,
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: want the revenge Angle celtics Versus, nicks you know WHAT i,
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: Mean that might draw more viewership if that's what you,
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: Know if that's what THE nba, Wants and Whatever Celtics
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: knicks is probably gonna be a series that draws more
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: Viewership boston Versus New. York so you, know you, KNOW
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: i Hate, UBRA i Hate. EMBIID i think they're both dirty,
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: players Especially. Ubra those guys do not deserve to win this. Thing,
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: celtics by the, way have Beaten philadelphia in the LAST
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: i don't, know four or five playoff series they've played against.
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: Them they better just get it. Done BUT i think
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: the public is overreacting to all of. This celtics were
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: a huge favorite to win this. Series they still should
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: win this. Game they should be the favorite in this,
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: game which they. Are it seems like the public seems
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: to think that the line is too high on this,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: game which is clearly not accurate because the line was
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: higher than that in all the other home. Games you,
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: know and you might, say, Well embid changes. That, yeah
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: he does by a couple of, points but The celtics
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: did also win the first. Game embiid was that The
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: celtics Bleue philly out on the, road so it's not
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: like The celtics, are you, know getting killed By. Embiid
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: embiide didn't even shoot well in the last, game so you,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: know and then as far as the under or over.
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: UNDER i should SAY i would lean, under just because
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: game sevens do go. Under but the problem is the
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: books know, that and this line is really. Low at
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: two oh five and a, half there's not a whole
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: lot of value. There it dropped from two oh nine
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: two oh, nine it was a bit more. Palatable game
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: sevens usually go under because teams focus on deep beens
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: and they play more intense deep, mens you, know which
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: is part of the reason why the line has to
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: be a little bit shorter on the, spread but not this.
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: Short but, yeah the, TOTAL i just don't think there's
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: any value left on playing the, under you. KNOW i
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: don't think i'd want to go over, though even though
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: there might be a little bit of value technically in doing.
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: It but you, know the style of game in game
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: seven usually is an. Understyle but we have eighty six
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the under seventy one percent of
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: the cash on the. Under and to counter that a little,
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: BIT i actually like The celtics team total over in
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: this game as, well because the biggest outlier is The
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: celtics shot terribly in the last two, games AND i
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: know you're gonna have to go over PROBABLY i don't
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: know what the number. Is let's just, look we can
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: look On Action network. Whatever you already know what all
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: my plays. Are, Now, uh it's one oh seven and a. Half,
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: now the issue with that is that The, celtics you,
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: know they've gone under that in three three out of
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: the six games in this series so, far so that
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a. Concern but when they,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: win they usually go over. It SO i think they've
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: gone under and all three of their losses they've gone over,
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: it and all three of their, wins so although they
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 2: barely did it in one of the wins with the
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: one o eight to one hundred win or, whatever but,
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: YEAH i Think celtics over the one oh seven makes
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: sense in this game, too even though it, is you,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: know supposed to be lower. Scoring and just to show
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: you that there's no value left here in that, number
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: the last home game for The celtics in the, series
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: the total was two fourteen and a half and now
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 2: it's all the way down to two oh. Five so,
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: again the, books no game sevens are like, this SO
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: i think there's absolutely no value in playing the under.
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: Here but that also means The celtics team total might
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: actually be too low for that, reason do it one oh.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: SEVEN i think their team total has actually been around
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: one to eleven in some of these other, games so
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: there actually might be some numeric value, there and it
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: makes sense to go over The celtics team. Total you,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: know that would be my second strongest opinion. HERE i
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 2: considered doing, It SO i would either Go celtics over
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: the one oh seven team total or minus seven and a. Half.
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: There that's. It, man you Hate. LEBRON i don't know
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: how being A falcons fan evens it. Out you just
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: don't make any. Sense but, YES i do not Like Lebron. Rodman,
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: yeah but at Least rodman was hilarious, though even THOUGH
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: i don't like. Him he was a dirty, player but
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: he was at least, Oh i'm just not gonna play
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: And i'm gonna go out and bang hookers In vegas
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: and miss three games or. Whatever it was kind of Hilarious.
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: Rodman he's also a, diplomat. Dude he's the only like
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: person that goes over To North korea and you, know
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: has talks with Him Jong un and. Whatever SO i don't,
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: KNOW i don't Hate, rodman, REALLY i don't. Know he's
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: he's an. Enigma let's just put it that. Way that's
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: gonna do it once. Again my plays Are Chicago, cubs
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: split bet, on the minus one and a half run
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: line and the money. Line if you wanted to just
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: go money line and get juicy with, it you can
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: do that. Too. UH i worry a little bit because
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: the total is, low BUT i think it's a big
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: pitching mismatch, there so it lines up for. Me we'll do,
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: that and then we're going first five under in the
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 2: Other chicago, Game White Sox San. Diego then we do
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: have a split bet puck line money line in THE
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: nhl on The Philadelphia, flyers and then we have The
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: celtics minus the points In game seven in THE. Nba
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do. It might not be back. Tomorrow we'll
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: say that's. Good, yeah that's it for. Now learn a
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 2: tone On, twitter learn a tone On, instagram like subscribe
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: to the show, here tell everybody about. It whatever you.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: Though this might be the last EPISODE i ever do
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: Because i'm not coming back. Tomorrow, Dude i'm not like fuck.
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: This i'm not gonna do it once you, know The
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: celtics lose and you, know, Yeah i'm just not gonna do.
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: It see you. Later go check out My Kentucky derby
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: episode to get the low down on. That, uh The
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: puma is scratched now, though so keep that in. Mind
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: but he was my fifth pick for what that's. Worth you,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: know we'll see WHAT i want to do with The
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 2: Kentucky derby. Stuff we're on audio as, Well Apple. Spot
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: IF i go check that, out, spreaker that all helps
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: me out as. Well covered in you because my yuke
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: channel on, YouTube paground dot, com slash and learn it
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: tone you want to support me that. Way loser casts
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 2: Every tuesday, night and the G Spot giants podcast will
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: be back at some. Point that's gonna do. IT i appreciate. It. Everybody,
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: Peace but don't you go. Quiet don't you fade from the.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: Flow your Name steal means something, new somebody for.
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 3: Shore put the glass, down, baby look at me.
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 4: Night hold, on hold, on nothing nice up, now hold,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 4: on hold, on let me pull you that bites, hord
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: but it don't get the. Crown hold, on hold on
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 4: and stay with me now