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NFL Week 2 - Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Clear for liftoff. What's up, everyone? Tyler Tamblyn here, a.k.a.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Toe Tagging Tambo, back for another edition of Leverage Lane
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: here on the Ship It Nation YouTube station, NFL edition.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Got my guy Alex Blickle here with me.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: As always, and we're going to break down all things
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: week two in the NFL classic slate. If you guys
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: haven't followed along or watched the show before, we're breaking
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: it down. We're going to look at the most common.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: chalk build we're going to talk about how to leverage
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: the chalk against that build and then at the end
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: we'll each have our own leverage lane and hopefully help
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: you guys come up with your lane for the week
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: as we take on these big field tournaments and small
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: single entry stuff high stakes smaller dollar it really works
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: for everybody alex my friend bring you back in here
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: it's week two man we got a lot right in
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: week one feel good about it but as usual we'll
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: get to it uh for this week as well how
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: you doing.
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: My friend yeah doing very well i uh i think
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: it's going to be fun to kind of talk through
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: week one and You know, there were there were some
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: really good aspects of it and then some not so
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: good like Colston Loveland.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we'll hit on all of that.
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: And really, you know, that that conversation is going to
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: be focused on, OK, what can we take from week
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: one into week two? What is the you know, what's
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: the really like meaningful signal that we got from week one?
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: And then what's the stuff that we can just kind
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: of chalk up to being kind of totally random?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's a lot to go to there, like, again,
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: from a topic perspective today. But just to note it that,
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: you know, from last week, a lot of it still
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: is going to apply to this week. And one of
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: the things that I want to talk about, don't want
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: to forget, is that, you know, early in the season,
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: in week one, week two, when the pricing is still
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: super soft like this, and this is why this is
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: such a fun slate, week two always is. There's a
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: lot of, like, everyone knows because whatever happened last week,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: the same thing has to happen this week. And nowadays, too,
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: I talked about it on the Mayo show yesterday, but
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: you also have situations where, let's say a guy like
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Loveland failed people, There's other chalk and he's not in
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: the chalk mix right now, but I'd say there still
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: is enough people that will say, okay, I'll hop out.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's eight, 10%, but it's like, it's still something
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: versus back in the day, people would be like, nope,
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: screwed me once, never going back. Now people are more
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: likely to hop right back on. So that's important. Before
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: we get into it, I want to remind everybody about
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: Ship It Games. There's not many, if any.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Actually, there's none. I'll just say it.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: There's no other sites giving away $ 45, 000 cash and prizes
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: to their community throughout the season. So if you guys
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: don't know, go to ShipItGames.com. Every Ship It Nation All
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Access member or NFL-only member is eligible. We gave away
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: the first three last week. So congrats to Shane, Jacob,
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: and Bill. They got the first of the three golden
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: Ship It tickets. And they will be in share a
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: ship this week where they can, they could split a
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars. If we ship the five 55 milli,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: the 50% of it would go to the prize pool
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: and boost this up to a massive prize pool. But
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: all you have to do to get in the games
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: is go to ship at nation.com, go to join the
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: nation and pick the plan. If you want single sport
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: NFL only you can do monthly, you can do annual,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: you can do with saber without, you can get an
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: all access plan. It doesn't matter. As long as you're
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: in the game, you'll be good to go. You'll also
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: get the Stone 2.0, which we'll be using here, Alex,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: to go through it. But from last week, before we
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: hop into this week, I do want to talk a
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: little bit just about, you know, like let's use Gibbs
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: as a starting point, right? You had some stuff pre-show
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: that we were talking about Gibbs. Maybe you can break
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: that down here and then I'll chime in afterwards and
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: see how I'm applying it to this week. But what
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: were your thoughts on Gibbs from last week and what
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  Speaker 3: we can learn from that and apply it over to
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  Speaker 3: this week?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I was very pleased with the kind of way
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: that we talked through Gibbs last week and specifically the
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: idea that it's.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Not just who you play, it's who you don't play.
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: And the way that that really came to fruition in
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: last week's slate is if you chose not to play
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: Gibbs and you, let's say, I had a lineup, for example,
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: that had Brees Hall and Bucky Irving without Gibbs. If
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: you told me ahead of time I was going to
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: get 20 plus from those two guys, I would have
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: been very pleased with how they performed. And yet, I
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: was behind the eight ball with my running back selections
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: because Gibbs got 36. And similarly, someone could have said,
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: oh man, at $ 7, 700, $ 300 cheaper than Gibbs, I can
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: play a much lower owned Bijan Robinson. And then they
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: go out and get over 30 fantasy points from Bijan
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: Robinson at like 12% ownership. On paper, that looks really,
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: really good, except those lineups lost by five to the
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: lineups that had just $ 300.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: More invested in Gibbs. And so it's really.
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: I think a good reminder of why expensive running back
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: chalk can be as valuable as it is. It's not so,
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: it's not just like what that player gives you when
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: they do well. It's also that there's just very little
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: benefit to fading them a lot of the time, because
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: when your guys do well, when the pivots you go
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: to do well, they still have the obstacle of doing
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: so well that they separate from the really good running
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  Speaker 4: back chalk.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to talk about that when we get
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: to Bijan for this week.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: Not everybody watches this, but on Mondays, I review, I
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: do a show called The Takedown Breakdown on the Shiba
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: Nation YouTube station. I was using DFSOS.com. You guys can
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: check it out. But the perfect lineup, this was just interesting.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: And it's the perfect lineup. It's obviously the optimal.
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: It's everything. It's 50K. I think 270-something won the Millie Maker.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: It wasn't really to showcase just the result, but you
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: talked about early in the season, especially when what I
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: was talking about was software pricing. When you get like
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: a 38 from a 6,700 or Derek Henry, a 35
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: from Deandre Swift, you know, Gibbs is still there, but
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: then you need that, you know, the God or like
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: this lineup kind of worked.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: It was, it was Bryce young. Coker Swift, right?
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  Speaker 3: You had the mini stacks in here and some of
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: the other spots too, but it was just to show
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: off that like, here's your.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Olave Gibbs did end up in the lineup.
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: Usually we talked to the past where it's like those
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: secondary stacks, you know, sometimes people are forcing them in
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: this case, it just happened to work out.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: If you weren't on, um, Burrow, Chase, Higgins, any type
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  Speaker 2: of that setup. A lot of people were on Jamar Chase, obviously,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: and he hurt them. Well, then it was the Bengals.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: If you weren't on Loveland, it was DeAndre Swift at
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: low ownership. A lot of what we thought still ended
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: up happening. It's just when the pricing is so soft
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: this early in the season, there's a lot of ways
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  Speaker 3: you can go. And that's what I want to talk
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: about now. I want to bring it across to Bijan
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  Speaker 3: for this week. We just saw, you know, Swift score.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: By the way, Mnangai scored not on there, but it
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: was pretty, I think they ran for like 260 yards
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: or something on that Carolina team.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: And now you've got Atlanta at home. Same thing.
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: Who would have known that Bijan's getting 10 targets with
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: Rush in there? Well, obviously he's getting 10 again this week, Alex.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: We already can put that into the projection. So you
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: got to remember, you know, it's not always going to
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: be the same, but just how are you thinking about
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: a guy like Bijan bringing.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: This across versus Gibbs last week in this spot?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, that Bijan pass usage was pretty insane. He was
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: targeted on 45% of his routes. Drake London only earned
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: a target on 15% of his. Sorry if you can
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: hear this, this bang, I don't even know where it's
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: coming from. But yeah, so the thing with Bijan this week,
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  Speaker 4: I think that's the major difference from Gibbs is that,
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: you know, they both have the rushing efficiency. They both
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: have the incredible receiving volume, but one of those players
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: has much better team environment, scoring equity, and that's Gibbs.
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  Speaker 4: For me, if I don't go to Bijan this week,
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: it is almost solely because there are runouts for this
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: game where Atlanta just doesn't do enough offensively for Bijan
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  Speaker 4: to post the kind of score that he posted himself
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  Speaker 4: last week or that Gibbs posted last week. I think
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: that's the major difference between these two guys. It shows up,
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: by the way, in in our ceiling projections, like Bijan's
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: median outcome, his, his just overall projection is fairly close
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  Speaker 4: to what Gibbs was last week, but Gibbs was like
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: four points higher in ceiling and about five points higher
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: in a, in our super ceiling, which is the average
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: score that the top 10% of his outcomes. So the, um,
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: I think that's really telling and it, it does make
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: me want to be a little bit hesitant here with Bijan.
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  Speaker 4: The other thing is that, I think we have some really,
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: really strong running back plays at cheaper price tags. So
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to pivot off of Bijan for McCaffrey,
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: for example. If I'm pivoting off of Bijan, it's like
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: the most expensive I'm going is Derrick Henry, or I'm
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: going back to Bucky Irving, who now we see is
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: a really good role. And now this matchup with Cleveland
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: is really, really good. And so I think that's the
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: way that I'm thinking about it. But certainly, I think
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: the lesson from last week One that we already kind
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: of knew, but it's always good to get that reminder,
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: is if you're pivoting off of Bijan, you should be
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: thinking about, okay, what kind of lineup can I build
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: where I'm right about pivoting off of Bijan, even if
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: he goes out and gets 28, 29, 30 fantasy points,
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: something like that.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, that was what I was going to say.
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: You know, you said it and it's like mixing both
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: of our thoughts together now. But you just explained how,
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: you know, the outlier event that Bijan got last week
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: that we weren't fully expecting that could happen again. But
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: even if it ran out the exact same way, rolled out,
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: ran out, whatever you want to say for the exact
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: same result is what I'm trying to say. it's like,
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: it's not like we're lacking other options this week. You know,
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: Derek Henry, Saquon, Gentee. I'm just naming the ones people
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: actually might want to play, right? Javante Williams, for sure.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: Brees Hall is still going to get a little love.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Bucky Irving is still going to get a little love.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: Like these guys will get played. And then Aaron Jones.
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: chalk takes up a bunch of lineups which we'll get
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: to him when we get to the common build so
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: when there's softer pricing there's multiple factors at hand and
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: this is just a quick example of like when i
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: talk through i call it like the um the penthouse
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: effect where i'm talking like thinking through different levels it's
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: like aaron jones is chalk but that's fair and we
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: know why and it's all there jordan mason hit the
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: ir but my point and he's 5,100, it all makes sense.
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: But like you have Addison at the exact same price
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: at a different position. You have Hawkinson who's like a
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: double whammy because you get, he's cheaper than Schultz chalk,
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: which we'll get to.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: And then he's also a leverage play off of Jones,
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: a different position, onesie position. You could just fill them
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: out there.
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: He could get nine catches off, 60 yards and a
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: touchdown and that'd be amazing and even if it's like
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: it's not like the gib situation where there's like oh
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: but there's 10 other guys that could still compete or
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: the bijon one like i said like there's still 10
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: other guys it's like did schultz do that maybe not
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: well now you've really crushed the position there did anybody
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: do anything at tight end usually nobody or just a
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: few guys so it's like that's kind of how i
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: look at it there's just other ways you can take
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: these things and move it around and then get different
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: you could have wide receiver in the flex.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: And maybe you just play Derek Henry and Saquon Barkley. Well,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: that's going to be extremely unique.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: You can almost put any stack around that at that point,
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: especially if you've got Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley, and you're
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: accounting for Aaron Jones by playing Hawkinson in your onesie position.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: Like people, what does that have to do with each other?
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: It does. You're still, you're not leaving stuff out.
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: And then you got to think about, okay, am I
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: going to play Javante or am I going to get
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: in on that passing attack?
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Or am I going to leave that game alone? Well,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: that game probably is pretty good.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: It's got a decent total, but it also has pretty
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: condensed offenses that you could use. So that's what I'm
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: looking at there. But where do you want to start?
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: Anything else you want to comment on that type of stuff?
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: If not, we can start looking at the common build
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: and breaking it down.
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we're going to talk more about Addison.
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: I think he's one of the strongest plays on the slate.
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: Not just the leverage off of Jones, but also leverage
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: off of Justin Jefferson. There was a game last year
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: with Wentz at quarterback. against Philadelphia where Addison went nine
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: receptions off 12 targets for 128 yards. And Jefferson was
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: held to five for 79. And so if Chicago really
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: comes out and has a game plan designed around stopping
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: Jefferson and making sure that every single guy has help
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: against Jefferson, then maybe Addison gets a lot of one-on-one
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: opportunities and he puts up that kind of yardage total
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: and that kind of target total. So I do think
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: he's one of the better plays. on the slate and
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: is projected for really, really low ownership since he did
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: absolutely nothing last week. Much better play this week. I
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: think a much better situation, I think for this week,
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: not just the matchup, but also Jawan Jennings is out.
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: And so there's less target competition, role competition for him.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm, I'm very much in on that play, but,
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: but yeah, as far as the, as far as the,
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: just like chalk build is concerned, I think it's a
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: little bit harder to kind of identify this week and
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: talk through it because there isn't, the clear game stack
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: that we had last week with Detroit and New Orleans,
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: we're going to see much more spread out quarterback ownership
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: and overall stack ownership. And I think most of the
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: chalk is more about just like the individual plays at
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: certain positions that are very clearly going to be popular.
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: And then we can kind of, so I think maybe
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: for the chalk bill, we kind of build it out
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: that way and then say, okay, here are the stacks
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: that people might go to that are going to fit.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: It's harder than usual from that perspective because most times
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: people say, oh, it's easy, just do this.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: But we know this too.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: It's just a matter of like, okay, the most obvious
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: starting point is this and then sort of working backwards
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: from there. But to Andrew's question, that's going to come up.
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: We're going to find out. I will say Jaden Daniels,
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: getting a lot more love around the content space right
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: now than i expected originally like people are starting to
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: think about flip the dac side over or whatever because
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: they you know if they don't want to stack dac
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: with lamb and pickens they like giovante already it's like
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: you you can see it kind of migrating that way
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: i also will say because we're going to get to
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: all this stuff we get to leveraging it even with
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: you know leveraging this build with addison like you just
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: talked about but um caitlin black still on the injury
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: report and that's interesting because if it does somehow flip
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: on sunday morning or we got news about that maybe
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: people would start thinking about a little more again not
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: thinking like he's really affecting cmc that much anyway i'm
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: just saying you know how people's brains work on a
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: sunday morning it's like.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Oh and this guy's gonna be out and everyone's on
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: oh i better flip.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: To cmc now it's like that you you see people
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: making those decisions so i think that's important to think
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: about as well.
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: We'll get to all this stuff. There's a bunch of
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: good stuff there. One I saw though, was this contest
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: selection question. Uh, this is probably better for you. Cause
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: I know like one to five is sort of up
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: your alley and how you handle it. So it says,
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: is it better to do five lineups in a five
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: max 1900 player contest in your opinion, or three in
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: a five max, but only 300 entries, or is it
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: just preference?
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: Uh, I, I think it's, The first thing I'd say
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: here is I don't totally understand. Oh, I guess maybe
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: if the 300 entry one is a higher dollar and
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: they have a specific amount that they want to spend.
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: But otherwise, I was thinking this is weird. Either or,
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: why can't you do five in the five? But that
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: makes sense. Personally, I would want to do the three
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: and five max with only 300 entries. Now, that does
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: depend a little bit on the payout structure. As long
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: as that 300 entry contest is top heavy, then that's
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: the one I would want. give yourself the higher chance
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: of that really, really high end outcome that you're, you know,
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: that we're all chasing on a week to week basis.
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: And I would say that, you know, with, with only
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: three entries in a five max, like the fact that
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: you don't have a fourth and fifth is not giving
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: you a disadvantage the way, you know, when you're in
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: a mega Millie and you only have one and you're
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: playing against guys who have 12, like that's an, that's
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: a disadvantage, but only having three when some others have five,
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: it's not a disadvantage. You still have enough to diversify
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: in a meaningful way.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: And so that's totally fine. I have no issue with
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: that whatsoever.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is more like a slice and dice situation. like,
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: you know, not really leveraging anything. Like if you're playing Bijon,
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: you can just cut into Bijon's ownership with somebody that's
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: lower owned. If you want, like we talk about this with, um,
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: who did we use yesterday? Like Aaron Jones this week,
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: if you play Aaron Jones and play him with the
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: Vikings D that could be a good way to get
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: different because most, a lot of people have Aaron Jones,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: not many will have, um, the Vikings D at all.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: So it's like, if you think that's a way that
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: it could be handled, but this would just be a
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: secondary stack.
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: Well, that That comment's a little funny because Kirk Cousins
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: is not on the Falcons.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: Also that, yeah, I didn't even see that part.
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: I was reading the Titan Coker run back, but yes,
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: also you would not be using him.
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and I have no issue or I have no
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: interest whatsoever in Cooper Rush, but I will say that
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: I do think Drake London is a really good leverage
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: play off of Bijan this weekend.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Our GPP scores very much say that as well.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: It's just like this guy has to be able to
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: get off. I mean, can't rush, can't throw. Like, he
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: can't do either.
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: His name's Rush, but I'm just saying he can't really
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: get much off. It's just tough, but maybe this week
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: with the matchup and at home and everything else. Now,
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: let's try and build this out. This is where, look,
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: I think Schultz is going to be pretty popular, right?
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, so the first thing that I would say
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: here is I definitely agree that both Bichon, I mean,
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: I've got Bichon like almost at 50% in single entries
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: and high stakes. I do think Aaron Jones is going
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: to be a popular second choice. But for me, the
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: second thing behind Bijon is not Aaron Jones. It's at
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: least one of Derrick Henry or Mark Andrews. Because it's
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: a matchup that we know that people want to target now.
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: Henry's coming off a massive performance. The Ravens' offense looked incredible.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: With Declan Doyle. And now, no Zay Flowers, no Lane.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: So it's like.
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: Every pass catcher is kind of projecting really well. Mark
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: Andrews projects extremely well. We know Baltimore's going to score.
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: It's reminiscent of Detroit last week, right? The vast majority
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: of lineups had some piece of the Detroit offense. I
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: think people are going to kind of look at Baltimore's
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: offense the same way.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, think about it.
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: Baltimore's offense, they're implied for a very similar amount of
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: points as Detroit was last week. Baltimore has now has
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: one guy in the seven Ks. And then like the
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: second most expensive guy is Andrews at 4,400. And last
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: week there was a ton of ownership on a similarly
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: projected offense when it was Gibbs at eight K I'm
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: on our St. Brown, nearly eight K Jameson over six Laporta,
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: I think was 45. So like a Laporta last week
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: was more expensive than Andrews this week had all that
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: competition above him and still ended up like 15%. So
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: I think, uh, I think Andrews and or Schultz for sure. But, uh,
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: at least one of Henry or Mark Andrews is going
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: to be in the vast, vast majority of lineups, in
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: my opinion.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: I think so as well.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: I think one of the things that's interesting, it's still,
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: it's not quite a, you know, even money swap if
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: you will but like derrick henry schultz could be giovante
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: andrews and then they feel like they've got their baltimore
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: piece and then that maybe changes so if you see
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: a schultz henry version here you might see pickens be
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: like okay now i'm good with pickens because he's cheaper
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: than lamb and he fits and i can just play
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: him and i'm not on giovante whatever if someone goes
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: giovante there i think that's where they're like okay i'm
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: getting andrews then And now I'm going to whatever I.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Want at wide receiver.
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: My, my biggest tricky is like when we get to
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: wide receiver to then figure out the stack, it's like
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: the quarterback is, you know, seemingly Dak, but Jaden Daniels
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: has crept up, you know, Brock Purdy's in the mix too.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: So like, but I think it's probably Dak that you'd
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: put in here. So, so what does this end up
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: looking like?
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: Like Dak Pickens, is there a cheap guy people are using?
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: Like where do you go after this?
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: I think McLaurin will be a popular bring back. I
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: also want to say, before we even kind of build
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: all this out, double tight end last week was used
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: in almost 40% of high stakes and single entry lineups.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: So I also think that one option here is to say, okay,
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: what if people use both Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: and now they don't feel the need to save money
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: at running back? And so we see Bijan, Henry, Gervonta.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: like that to me is going to be a very
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: much in play. And I don't think people are going
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: to have an issue playing Derek Henry and Mark Andrews
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: together this week. Yeah.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, we'll have, we'll have to see how
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: it shakes out.
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: I think like something like this is probably a rough
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: estimate we can, we can run against, but I've got
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: Dak Pickens-McLauren. You get the Coker-Bijon secondary. You get Schultz,
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones as pieces that people like,
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: and it just lands on the Ravens D.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I just threw it in there. I don't think they're
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: going to be.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: Super popular, but I do think they're going to be
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: up there. It's just whoever people can get to. I
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: do think that's part of it. The other thing is
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of people will play– wherever they
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: land down here as well. Like some of these cheap,
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: these will get into the mix if people need them
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: or want to move up. But I think something along this,
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: this type of lineup could be what you see. And
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: this has a lot of chalk, right? Overall, like if
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: you'll quarterback chalk is spread out, but Dak's going to
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: be up there. We know these three running backs are
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: all going to have high ownership. Um, Schultz is definitely
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: going to get ownership somewhere in that vicinity with Pickens, uh,
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: McClure and digs like those three, two of them could
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: be in the mix. Coker had a big game last week.
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: He's across from Bijan. People could land there. Maybe they don't.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: There's other guys that you could shimmy the defense down.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: If you like Parker Washington or something like whatever you
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: decide you like off of last week, what's most interesting
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: to me is that it does seem like majority of lineups.
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: That's what matters to me more that I'm thinking about
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: because the plays of the plays, but it's the setup of,
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: Like we talk about in golf, if you see a
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: Scottie lineup, you just know now that's pretty obvious. There's
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: going to be 6K guys in there. And like, okay,
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: now you know the 8Ks are getting skipped. It's like
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: most lineups, to me at least, are going to have
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: two pay-ups and a pay-down and then balanced receivers. So
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: you're not going to see a lot of people paying
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: up at receiver this week. No real version lends itself
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: to that. So I don't know if you have any
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: thoughts on that, but I mean, this is kind of
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: where I'm at. Anything you want to switch here or
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: you think we should talk through before we go into
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: leveraging it?
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: Uh, no, I, I think the, the main thing though,
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: is like, let's recognize that, you know, a lot of
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: lineups are going to look similarly to this, but then
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: it's not going to be Dak Pickens McLaurin.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: It's going to be some other game.
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: And so, um, I, I think that, you know, the,
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: the part of the chalk build this week that we
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: are really competing with and trying to leverage is the
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: shell of like, okay, these very popular running backs, these
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: very popular, uh, tight ends, and then the quarterbacks and
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: wide receivers, like, yeah, they're going to be popular quarterback
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: and wide receiver plays, but it's not going to be crazy. Like,
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: you know, last week, you know, Jamar Chase got to
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: 39% single entries and high stakes. I don't think he's getting,
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: I don't think anyone's getting close to that right now
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: for my single entry ownership. Like the highest I have
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: is a city lamb at 23.2%, only three wide receivers
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: in the twenties. So yeah, I think that's where people
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: are getting different. And, and they're, they're not even necessarily
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: getting different at wide receiver, you know, cause they're making
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: the active decision to say like, okay, I just ate
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: a lot of chocolate running back in tight end.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I need to go get contrarian here.
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: It's just that there isn't enough consensus at the wide
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: receiver position when it comes to game stacks and you know, what,
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: what games to target for anyone to get a really,
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: really high on there.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I also think too, like position eligibility or
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: position scarcity, I guess, as a whole, like that's the
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: other factor is, you know, last week when a lot
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: of people didn't have a clue yet, it was like
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: when you got Mayer at 2,900 and we can just
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: run double tight end. And then they're like, wait a minute,
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: these running backs are all putting.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Up 30 plus, like I'm screwed.
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: And now this week you're not seeing any like mayor
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: only went up slightly 3,600. You've got Schultz who's right
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: there at 3,200. If you wanted to get, you could
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: play Schultz and Andrews, but what nobody's going to do that.
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: And I'm not saying you should, I'm just saying it
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: because you're really giving up some big boy possibilities at
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: these other positions of what you can get to. But
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: my point on the first part was like, let's go
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: back here. Let's go to wide receiver by price above Pickens.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: Okay. Lamb for the game stack. Some chase because he's chased. Fine.
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: I definitely think Jefferson, I think we're light on him
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: right now. I don't think anyone's playing JSN. I know
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: it says 12%, but it's like, that could be nine
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: or eight by the time we get there. And by
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: the way, he's the afternoon slate. at the same price
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: essentially as CMC. So there's like that, like most people,
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: if they were really clicking in, maybe he's a better
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: late swap. So he pops up because people are on
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: other running backs or they saved that spot.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Now they want to play JSN.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know, but really my point being Egbuka, Waddle, Evans, Smith, Olave,
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: you know, most of these guys not getting played.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: And then even with Pickens down, sure.
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: Like Garrett Wilson, some Parker Washington, but you know, we're
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: waiting on lad news, but It doesn't even seem like
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: that many people are going back to watch. I don't know.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: Like there's just, there's so many ways that you can
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: go at wide receiver and that would lead you into
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: your stacks. But my thing is you still got to beat.
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: It's what you talked about earlier.
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: It's like, we're still.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: Competing with that other shell of those running backs that
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: everyone are using. And that's where it gets exciting to
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: me because that's the same thing. Now here's where we
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: know what people are doing. And it's some form of this, right?
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: But there's a lot of guys down here. Go back
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: to the well on Swift. I don't think David Montgomery
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: is getting three touchdowns again, but he's down here. You
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: got Brees Hall, Barkley, A-Chan, you know, Jenty, Stevenson. I mean,
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: I know Henderson's back and debuting this week, but there's still,
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: that's a big group of names that you could find
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: 30s out of or 25s out of. And if anything
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: up top fails, it immediately drops down to that group
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: being the hammer. So what's your thoughts here? First thoughts
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: as we go into looking at how we can leverage
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: this chalk build.
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the first thing that comes to my
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: mind is like, what if we, what if we try
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: to leverage the field through the tight end position? Uh,
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: there are some really good ways to do that. Like
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: I think going right back to Colston Loveland is, is
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: one of the best ways. I also think you could
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: just pay up for Trey McBride. It's a really difficult
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: matchup with Seattle, but I think to some degree McBride's
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: a little bit matchup proof. He's just so ridiculously good
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: and he's going to get peppered with targets over and
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: over and over again. I also like as, uh, as
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: someone who's now doing projections, you know, more seriously and
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: more intensively than I ever have. Like one of the
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: things that I'm struck by is, you know, I I've
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: associated McBride with someone who gets targeted a ton before
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: the red zone and then doesn't get targeted that much.
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: And the more I look into his data over the
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: last few years, the more I think like, my God,
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: he just ran so, so cold with the touchdowns. And
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: if he goes out and, you know, scores 13 touchdowns
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: this year, like I'm not going to be surprised in,
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: in the least bit. So I think McBride might actually
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: be undervalued still at the tight end position, despite the
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: fact that so much of his success last year was
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: on just, you know, an absurd amount of volume because
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: they set records for pass volume over, over like a
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: two game stretch and a three game stretch and a
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: four game stretch.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: It was just nuts.
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: So that obviously has to come down, but I think
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: he's still a really strong play whenever you get this
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: type of ownership on him. I think both of those guys,
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: Loveland and McBride going to be less than 10%. Um,
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: And then the other thing you can do is like,
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: you know, we saw Mayer last week have like a very,
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: very median outcome type performance. And I think when people
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: use someone like that at 45%, like almost in their mind,
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: they're forgetting that like the median outcome is exactly what
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: he did. Something like five for 50 or something. You know,
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: I might've even been like five for 40 or four.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: Everyone quoted that as like, it would be all good.
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: If we got that from them, they got it. And
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: then they're like, damn, it wasn't all good. So that
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: that's funny.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: Where it's like, it's the kind of score that if
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: you used him, it doesn't hurt you.
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Unless some other, like really.
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: So like, if you used, you know, Schultz this week
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: and he did that and Mark Andrews at 25% or 30%,
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: whatever he's going to be, you know, goes out and
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: catches two touchdowns, then sure.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Schultz hurts you.
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: But, if you get, you know, the, the mayor performance
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: from last week in the tight end landscape, like last week,
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: that doesn't hurt you at all, but it does give
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: us the opportunity to go find the guy who separates
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: from him, from him. And so obviously like the, the way,
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: one way to potentially do that is to go get
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: Loveland or McBride and hope they put up 25, 30
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: DraftKings points. The other option is to look for actual pivots.
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: And particularly if you can find somebody cheaper than Schultz, where,
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: like the extra $ 200, $ 300 is meaningful. And it gets
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: you a combination of plays that if you went to Schultz,
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: you could not get. And maybe that guy does really well.
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: And for me, that guy this week is David Njoku.
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: Similar situation in the sense that you're talking about a
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: player who now gets to play with like the main
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: pass catcher off the field. No lad McConkie this week,
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: just like Schultz has no Nico Collins. And just like
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: Andrews has no Zay Flowers. So it's a very similar situation.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: And I'm not sure people recognize just how many routes
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: Njoku ran last week. He actually led the team in
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: routes run with 18 amongst the tight ends. Kolar only
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: had 12. Gadsden only had five. I think we'll see
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: a meaningful uptick for Gadsden this week. And I think
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: we're going to see Njoku on the field running a
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: lot of routes because he's very clearly a much better
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: route runner and receiving threat than Kolar. And the other
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: thing there is like there were only three guys, for
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: this Los Angeles offense last week who were productive on
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: a per-route basis. It was Ladd-McConkie, far and away the
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: number one, and then Njoku and Gadsden. So it just
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: makes sense when you take Ladd off the field that
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: you get those other guys who were actually productive on
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: the field kind of as much as possible. And so
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: I think Njoku is probably my– well, I don't think
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: he's probably my favorite cheap guy. He is my favorite
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: cheap tight end if you're looking for a pivot off
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: of that Schultz and Andrews chalk. And then I'm also
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: very interested in leveling them if you can get to them.
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: But one of the reasons why their ownership is as
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: low as it is, is not because people don't want
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: to go to them. It's because it's very, very difficult
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: to build this week when paying up for a tight end.
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: Agreed. And I'm going to spend more on that in
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: just a second. I will say I like the Njoku call.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: I mentioned it earlier, though. I also like Hawkinson.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: If you're looking for a pivot down there, like I said,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: if you're not. I mean, Aaron Jones can do the
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: version of Mayer that we just talked about because most
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: people say, well, 5100.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, if he gets, you know.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: 80 yards and a touchdown.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty happy. Why are you when three other running
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: backs score 30 to 40?
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: If I'm not saying they will, but if they did like,
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: then you're not going to be happy because that's not
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: good enough at that point.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: I have way more confidence in that running back pool.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: We looked at earlier of multiples coming out of there
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: that can beat the chalk, you know, core that we're
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: up against. Then I do of Dalton Schultz leading the
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: slate and breaking it or something like that.
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: So, I think, um, I think that's also a contest
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: selection kind of thing, right? Where like, if you're in
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: a large field contest, even if you're in like the,
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: the five, five, five Millie this week, you need, you
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: need crazy upside from that flex spot. If you're in
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: a small field, single entry, I think it's much more
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: viable to go double tight end because then the chances
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: that you run that you're up against a different line
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: of like, let's say there are three running backs again
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: this week that go for 30 plus. The odds that
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: somebody in the 5-5-5, Millie, has that combination of three
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: is high. So you need somebody in the flex spot
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: who can compete with that type of ceiling. The odds
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: if you're in the $ 200 with 277 other people, the
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: odds that someone in that contest has the right combination
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: of three lineups is a lot lower. So you don't
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: necessarily need to have as much ceiling. You might be
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: fine with 12 from Schultz and 20 from Andrews.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: If you go double tight in that way or something
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: like that.
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And that's why, again, I don't know how much
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: double tight end I'll have, but I will say like
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: from the thinking pattern of, you know, a couple of
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: notes was I just look at it always like, again,
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: not everybody does this.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: It's, you know, some people, you know, say this is.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Unique or whatever, but if I'm playing a guy like Hawkinson,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: I might do this.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: I'm just, I'm just throwing this out there. Like this
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: is way more than enough to just move.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: On and you can literally do anything you want. It's aggressive,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: but I'm just showing it.
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: I might just play these two as my cheap guys
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: and jam in everybody I want now. And you're like,
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: holy shit, how did they get to that level? Well,
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: I'm not playing Derrick Henry because I'm going to use
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: Walker to leverage him. And I got Hawkinson to leverage
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: Aaron Jones.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: But that only cost me.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: $ 6, 900. A very nice number right there. Now I can
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: put anything I want. I'm not building the whole thing out.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: I'm just showing you an example of how I would
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: look at leverage where what if the Henry, who I'll
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: have a ton of, but what.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: If the Henry situation turns into.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: The Bijon situation from last year when London was late
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: scratched in the morning and everyone's like, got to get
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: in on Bijon now.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: It's going to be the biggest day ever. And they're like,
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: wait a sec.
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: We can just make this guy throw to Kyle Pitts
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: and whoever's worse and just see how that goes. Well,
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: it's different because we're talking about Lamar Jackson here, but
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: I'm saying there's already enough to look after. That's why
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: I feel a little safer. But what if it ends
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: up being this? People are looking to go to Mark Andrews.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: People are looking to go to Henry. I got Pez Walker.
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: You know, others, you can even do Bateman if you
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: like him more. And he's probably really the guy I'm
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: just saying, it's like, I don't care. I'm just showing
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: that you can go cheap and leverage something, two things, multiples,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: but it's, it's more than one way leverage because like
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: Hawkinson is a cheap tight end. That's in between Andrews
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: and Schultz.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: So you're getting a pivot plus leverage to Jones up top.
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: And then the same thing going on here with Bateman,
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: even at 4,400, uh, but now you can play lineups
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: that others likely don't have, or they just don't match
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: up from a composition factor. Yeah.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: I think that's, that's the, the best argument against the
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: Schultz truck to this week where like, you know, you
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: referenced that, that Bijan game last year when there was
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: no London, Nico Collins is the engine of the Houston offense.
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: There's a very reasonable chance that that offense just looks
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: really bad. And like, you know, Schultz could have a
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: 25% target share and, and, and not have a, not
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: have a, you know, many scoring opportunities and end up
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: with the same sort of thing, right? Uh, six for
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: 55 for 75 for 40, you know, anything like that,
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: where it's just, you do not in any way, shape
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: or form need to have it. And you can absolutely
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: find separation, even some among some contrarian guys around him, uh,
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: because the offense just doesn't get there and makes it
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: really difficult for Schultz to, to put up a meaningful score. So,
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: I definitely think that Schultz is the chalky tight end
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: that I am most willing to fade. Not having any
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: Mark Andrews is a little bit scary because I think
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: Andrews is a really, really strong play this week and
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: has one of the better projections. I think he's, yeah,
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: he's the second highest projected tight end for me, only
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: behind Trey McBride, slightly ahead of Colson Loveland. And then
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: there's a very clear, like big time teardrop to the
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: fourth highest projection. So not having any Andrews is going
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: to be difficult for me. I think the only way
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: I would not use Andrews is if I use Henry.
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: And the opposite is potentially not true. But it's a
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: tough one to think through, right? Like on the one hand,
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: I feel very strongly that the entire field is going
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: to use some type of, you know, at least one kind.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Of rule between Andrews and Henry. But I also think that.
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: That's a smart thing to do. And so there's a
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: good chance that I'm going to use it as well.
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there's other ways to look at it, too.
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: You talked about McBride. That's where I wanted to spend
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: some time as well. I do think the tight end
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: position is interesting this week because of those factors. Now,
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: there's a couple ways to look at this. If you
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: think the Houston offense is no good, you can't do this.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: But another thing, if you think it's going to be
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: fine or it's priced fair enough, you could.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Have like Stroud. Let's go here and get booty in.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: Like this isn't, you're, you're double whammying it again. I'm not,
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: it's not going to be Schultz. He's not going to
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: be needed. It's going to be through the passing game
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: that doesn't include him. And then later on, if they're
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: up or it's a back and forth, it's going to
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: be running the ball and passing it off. And, and
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: it might not be him, but now I'm going to
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: play McBride for a higher price guy there. And now
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: you're using lower price receiver to help fit this in
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: a lineup. That's still going to correlate and make sense.
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: And obviously you could add a second pass catcher if
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: you wanted to, There's enough value on the slate that
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: you don't have to, if you don't want to, but
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: you could definitely get away with something like this, the alternative.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: And again, probably going to go down to most would
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: have Andrews in this spot. But like I said earlier,
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: if you want to do something with Lamar, we just
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: talked about it earlier. Like they, they, Zay, very important,
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: super helpful. Don't think this offense dies, though, without Zay.
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: That's my thinking. And so, again, however you want to
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: do it, but this would be a way where if
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: you know a very high majority, as Alex said, which
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: he's very correct on, is going to have at least
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: one of Derrick Henry or Mark Andrews, you also could
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: just do this if you wanted, or one of those guys,
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: not even both.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: But what if it is just Lamar.
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: On the ground eating the lunch of– Henry and Andrews
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: around the line even, or when they get up there.
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: And then his other stuff is like big plays through
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: the air and it's, there's no Zay out there, but
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: these guys are who finds their way open. So we've
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: definitely seen it in the past. They both can get separation.
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: We know that they can get open and we know
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Lamar can hit them. This is, you still have all
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: the money in the world. What's the difference? 15, one again,
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: big difference in projection probably, but just noting, I care
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: much less about that. If it makes sense and we're
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: leveraging and we're doing different things, there's other factors to
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: it always.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: But what do we say? 15, one, Dak Pickens. Where's
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: my stuff, man? I can't find it. You should make
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: this easier. Pickens. And let's just use McLaurin. 17-9. So
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: the difference now is like, who would it be? Aaron Jones.
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: Up to what can you get like Saquon Barkley or
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: more right Saquon and the Philly D maybe or something
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: going go up you can get two more spots off
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: that type of setup and be fine and yeah it's
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: not the Washington Dallas game but it's not always going
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: to be that game there's 13 games on this slate
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: so that's just one way of showing it you can
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: apply it to any game it's not about me saying
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: it's Lamar Bateman and Tez Walker week.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: I'm just explaining the concept.
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: You can now go apply it for your lane to
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: find whatever it is you want to build out.
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: But that's how I'm looking at it, at least.
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: And then you wouldn't have in that example, you wouldn't
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: have Aaron Jones not needed and you wouldn't have Andrews
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: or Henry. Well, you've already broke out of the shell
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: some and you can play Bijan in that who has
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: Bijan with Tez Walker in a lineup together, let alone
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: all the other stuff.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: So any other added thoughts on that or anything else
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: you want to show here as far as we go
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: through it?
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: No, I want to ask you a question while it's
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: on my mind. And while we were already talking about
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: this game, um, it sounds like you and I both
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: agree that Jaden Daniels has a chance to steam and,
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: and people have, you know, that it's, it's going to
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: be a pretty common quote unquote, sneaky thought to say, Oh,
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: everyone's on Dallas. Well, I'll just flip to the, you know,
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: the fantasy superstar from two years ago, Jaden Daniels.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: And go Jaden McLaurin.
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: And now I get my pick of, of Dallas guys
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: and maybe I'll go Javante and a wide receiver. So
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: my question is how many people do you think are
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: flipping to Jaden Daniels, but then also saying, I'm not
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: just using McLaurin. I'm going to double stack Washington instead
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: of double stacking Dallas, where I think most of the,
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: most people who are going to Jaden are just going
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: to McLaurin and then whatever Dallas guys they want. And
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: so I think like even if Jaden steams and gets
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: to like 15% percent and McLaurin steams and gets to 15,
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: 20 percent. Personally, I think that from an ownership perspective,
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: you're still pretty protected on the double sacks because I
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: just don't see any other Washington guys becoming that popular.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree on that part. I think a lot
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: of people think about Jaden with his legs.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: And so like, well, I don't, you know, it's, it's
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: a way, the way they used to do with Lamar,
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: you know, as a prime example, it's like Lamar is
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: going to run a bunch. If I'm stacking him, it's
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: like one of the receivers or one of Mark Andrews
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: or whatever, you know, I'm talking even before, like back
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: in the day. So to me, That is, I think
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: how people are thinking about Jaden Daniels. So when they
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: flip it, it's probably just in most lineups, it might
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: just be moving Dak to Jaden. And I think another
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: part of that equation is that as much as we
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: see ownership on Pickens and.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I believe it and it's correct, like it's fine.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: I still think a lot of people don't, they'll see
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: Javante and be like, oh, Let me go to, you know,
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: I got to move Dak over now.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: Cause I'm playing. And then they might just be able
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: to move.
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: They like, I just didn't feel the whole thing out,
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: but with the same sort of running back shell, I
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: threw in a Mark Andrews. And then I put, um,
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: Luther burden in there as like another, you know, receiver
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: that people can go to. And, um, you know, he's
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: a secondary stack with Jones that people might like or whatever,
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: but you still have 43 50 left and you got
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: a cheap D somewhere or like even the, the $ 3, 800
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: D's or $ 3, 500 D's still let you get somebody you
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: want in there. So I don't think as many people
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: will double, but I think people feel comfortable with this
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: kind of build that I'm putting on the screen here
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: right now.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I, I agree there.
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: And, and like personally for me, um, I, I think I,
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: I love the double because I like the fact that
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: we saw a very clear elevated role for Stefan Diggs.
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: Wasn't sure what we were going to see from him
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: in week one. You got gets to join the team
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: kind of late in camp, all that stuff. So I
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: was very impressed with his role. I was very impressed
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: with his route running. He made Cooper to Jean look
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: bad on a coop on a couple of routes, which
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: is very, very difficult to do. And, and Daniel's really
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: looked his way in some key situations. So I think,
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: I think we're going to continue to see a really
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: big role for Diggs and we're going to see a
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: pretty concentrated offense. If, if, If Washington starts to expand
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: Antonio Williams' role, I think it'll be harder for those
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: two specifically in McLaurin and Diggs to always just dominate production.
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: But Williams ran 14 routes last week. You got double
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: that number from Diggs. And so at the moment, I
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: think it's a pretty clear double stack that I really,
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: really like. And again, not only is that very affordable,
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: but I think it's going to be pretty unique because
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: I think that even as Daniel's popularity grows, That combination,
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: the trio of those three guys, Daniels, McClure, and Diggs,
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: is just going to stay very unique. As we kind
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: of have talked through here now, I just don't see
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: many people going to the double stack there.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah. One thing I'll add to that too.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: And you know, I love this move is filling out
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: all the wide receiver positions with the game, like just
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: lock it down and move on.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: Cause then it tells its story. And again, not many
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: people end up with that as much as you will.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Everyone does that. We just explained they don't.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: And so it's like, that's not, and then finishing it
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: with an extra wide receiver or putting a fourth wide
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: receiver in the flex from a different game, but just
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: saying like, use a, a leverage spot from a different
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: game and maybe Addison's in your flex position. again, games
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: are different. I'm just saying like timing matters. You're, you're,
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: you put them in the flex. I'm saying maybe you
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: have Addison instead of Aaron Jones and he's the same
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: price at a wide receiver position, but you're using a
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: fourth as a flex. So it all makes sense if
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: you think about it, but just noting it, um, I
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: think Pickens.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Can really just.
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: Man, that was a 50-yard walk-in touchdown that he dropped
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: last week. It's not saying that he'll get that again,
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: but it's just funny how you get information the previous
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: week and people only drag some of it across. Like, oh,
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: Bijan has to get 10 targets again this week, and
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: Derek Henry's going to do it again and run, but
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: Other stuff, there's no way it could happen in their mind.
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: Like you think about other stuff with like Montgomery. He
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: doesn't need three touchdowns. I'm not advocating for him. I'm
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: just noting what people like he sucks. And did you
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: see how he got his touchdowns and what the stats said?
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: And the same shit could happen this week and he
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: can do it. But it's like you got information last week.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: Here's another really good example. It's not my lane for today,
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: but it is one that I like for this week.
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: from a picks perspective, but just putting it together for
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: the slate dynamics. Trevor Lawrence, everyone liked him last week.
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: Nobody wanted to, like you couldn't stack them because they
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: just couldn't figure out in their brain, myself.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: Included, like what are you going to do from the
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: Cleveland side? Well, you don't have to do anything. There's
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: 12 games. There's a ton of value plays out there.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: You could literally have just played Lawrence and Parker Washington
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: if you want it.
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: Myers got in, I get all that, but I'm saying
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: you could have just shut it down and then filled
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: it out with And Coker and Swift and what you
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: could add other stuff last week that made sense. And
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: you now people realize that, but they're still not dragging
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: that across. Like you can just play Lawrence and Washington
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: this week. And, oh, I got to throw Waddle in there.
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: He's going to bounce back to maybe he does. And
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: that could be smart. He would drive that game. But
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: you also might just not have to run it back.
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: Maybe you could just play Lawrence and maybe he is
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: going to continue to score fantasy points like he has.
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: Maybe that's all you need him and him in Washington,
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: fill the rest of your lineup out in different ways,
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: but just saying it, people don't bring all the information across.
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: I think there, there are two things here. Um, the
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: first is, I think that thought process is definitely more
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: viable when the opponent isn't getting much ownership. And when
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: the offense that you're talking about, isn't getting much ownership, right?
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: Cause like if, if this week, as you said, like,
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: let's say Waddle hits a big touchdown and you don't
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: have him because you decided not to go for the
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: double stack. that's not really going to hurt you because
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: there aren't going to be many game stacks from this game.
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: Waddle's going to be really, really, really low-owned.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: If, on the other hand, Waddle was.
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: Going to be 15%, you just thought, ah, I don't
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: want him, so I'm not going to play him, and
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: then Waddle gets the long touchdown, now that kind of
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: buries you because other people are going to have a
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: better version of your lineup because they have that bring-back.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: So I think that's an important point to make. The
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: second thing I want to say here is I also
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: think this is a very important distinction distinction. Like when
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: I say, you know, I want my lineups to be
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: really correlated. I want a double stack with a bring back.
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: I am not saying that no matter which quarterback and
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: wide receiver I really like, I'm going to force in
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: a double stack and force in a bring back. What
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: I'm saying is if I don't like the second wide
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: receiver from a team or a second pass catching option
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: from team, and I don't like any bring backs, I'm
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: just not going to use that stack.
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go elsewhere. And I actually broke that
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: rule last week. with the Chargers.
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: I had a lineup that didn't use a bring back
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: because I couldn't choose between the Arizona guys.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: And you know what?
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: Immediately, like now looking back, I regret it. And I
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: think I would have been better off going to McBride
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: and just laying off my love for Loveland in one
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: lineup that would have been okay. Or I could have,
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: you know, trusted my instinct on Kendrick Bourne having a
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: really nice role. And, you know, Vele ends up scoring
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: the touchdown, but like through three quarters, it looked like
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: that Saints-Detroit game was really going to fail or at
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: least underwhelm it in a big way and Vele was
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: going to be stuck at 9, in which case I
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: would have created an advantage with Kendrick Bourne instead of Vele.
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: Stuff like that I think is worth talking about. The
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: key point there for me is if you want to
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: be double stacking, you want to be using bring back,
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: you want to really lean into correlation with your builds
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: and there's a game you like, but you don't you
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: don't like the players you would have to pick to
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: get the construction you like, then either you've got to
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: just decide, all right, I'm letting go of the construction
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: or you say, I'm letting go of this game. I'm
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: letting go of my conviction on those players and I'm
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: going elsewhere. And maybe the easier thing to do there
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: is like, let's say you really like Lawrence and Washington,
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: but you don't like anyone else in the game. Then
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: just don't use Lawrence. Just use Washington as a one-off.
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: That's I think much, much more viable than going to
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: the skinny stack without a bring back.
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, again, looking at it from a call,
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: one thing I would also love, because you have this data,
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to send you on a project, but
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: I'm very curious what your data says for this. So
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: if you have time or think about it, just a
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: friend asking over here, but I'm very curious now that
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: we talk about it like that, because you gave a
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: great example of the Arizona spot last week. It was
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: like the Cleveland spot. I liked the Jacksonville side, didn't
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: like the Cleveland side. I liked the Chargers side, didn't
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: really like the Arizona side. I know McBride was a
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: clear option, but it was like, I don't love that
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: still in just the way the slate dynamics.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Are, et cetera, et cetera.
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: But what I'd like to know is in weeks one
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: through five, when the pricing is still super soft, Has
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: there been less? Cause your data shows not giving it
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: all away, but noting what it shows is like, obviously
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: the correct ways to stack lineups and what you should
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: be looking for and what shows up in the top
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: 1% more often than the field uses it, et cetera,
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: et cetera. So that's fine. But what about weeks one
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: to five when the pricing is just so, so soft? Like,
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: you know, if you didn't have, there was great Jacksonville
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: lineups last week that didn't have Boston in them with
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: a touchdown or didn't run it back with anybody on
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: the other side and got away with it just fine.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: Obviously results oriented. You can get away with things.
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying, I'm wondering when there's so much cheap
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: pricing versus trying to force that. And I'll give an
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: example this week, San Francisco, Miami, love Purdy, love Mike Evans.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: I think Debo's Debo again, like looks fine.
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: Don't really love anyone on Miami. I know a chance there.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: You could do it.
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: I know make up every guy that scored last week, Douglas.
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: If you want to retry bell again, you want it,
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: whatever you want to do from that team, you can
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: go ahead.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, I don't love it now.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: What you're saying a little bit and i'm not saying
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: it's you know in a bad way i'm just saying
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: like you said like you could have just went with
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: your your gut on a guy last week like i
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: could just play douglas and maybe he does it again
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: and just do it because it fits that proper build
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: but if i don't need to play douglas can i
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: still just play purdy evans and debo and be good
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: like that's, that's what I'm thinking about are just Purdy
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: and Evans. That's a big boy stack. Could be two
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: touchdowns from Mike Evans. And what if Debo fails it?
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: And I just had the right to like, what's your
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: thoughts on that early when we have all this value?
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I, I definitely see the, uh, the thought process
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: that you're kind of, you're talking about there. Um, I
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: think the way to verbalize it is like the main
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: reason we stack is because it's hard to get every
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: spot in your lineup correct that they all play really well.
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: And when pricing is this soft, it's easier to pick
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: the one-offs that end up being really good values. There
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: were weeks last week when pricing got tight in like
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: week 10, week 11. It was like, goodness gracious, I
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: can't build a lineup where I like five of my players,
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: let alone every single player in the lineup.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: So I very much.
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: Um, see that train of thought, but the data last
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: year was pretty clear early on in the season. Like
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: there was no real difference there. You still want it
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: to stack. Part of that though, is like there, you know,
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: when you're looking at that small of a sample, you're
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: looking at a lot of selection bias because remember in
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: those weeks early last season, like there wasn't anywhere near
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: the scoring that we just got in week one. And
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: so when you did find a game that actually went off,
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: it became that much more powerful. if we continue to
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: see like week after week this year, you know, offense
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: after offense is putting up 30 plus points.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: There are multiple 40 point performances.
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: Then I think it's going to be an environment where
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: it is a lot easier to just play your, your
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: favorite plays of like every single offense is performing.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: But I have absolutely.
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: No reason right now to think that we want to
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: deviate from the, the really correlated lineups. And to that point, like,
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: I think the San Francisco is a really interesting example
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: where the, I would say absolutely you want to bring
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: back here because potentially the biggest obstacle to the Purdy
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: stack really hitting this week is that they just don't
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: get pushed and that they're shutting it down. Early in
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: the third quarter, they're just starting to run the ball.
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: By midway through the fourth, the starters are out of
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: the game. I think you really want a Miami guy
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: so that San Francisco actually has incentive to keep scoring
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: and pouring it on in the second half.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree. I just say like, this is
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: what makes it tricky for me.
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: That makes a ton of sense, but you are playing
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: roulette like with that decision on the Miami side. Like
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: you don't, is it because HN or was it, is
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: it not? HN would speed the game up. What about
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: an early touchdown?
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: Boom.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: Now we got a game. You're excited to have that stack.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: And I get that.
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: And I'm not deviating from stacking. I'm just saying like Malik,
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: this is my example. You know, I like Evans, Samuel.
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: I like Purdy Malik, Washington's 4k. Like, what if I
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: chose to play booty instead? Because I don't want to
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: pick which Miami guy it is. And I'm just using
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: exact dollar for dollar. I don't want to play Schultz chalk.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: I know booty is going to get some love, but
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: he's not going to get that much love at 4k,
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: but I just, I prefer him.
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: No Nico.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: Maybe that's a better spot. Like I could just, to me,
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: the game can still get pushed enough. I just don't
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: have to be the one selecting who the guy is
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: that pushes it to leave myself empty there. When we
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: have like really good values everywhere, you could flip it.
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, you could go, um, to the
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: 5k guy here with, um, Debo and, And I don't
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: know if you're not in on that other spot, like
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: maybe it's just digs instead of Debo. And it's like, you're,
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: you've got Javante in this lineup or something too. And
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: it still is correlated. It's just, I'm saying it's going
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: to be a big Mike Evans day and I don't
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: want to figure out the rest. So I think matters too,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: for like field size and stuff like that. Like we've
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: talked about this a ton in the past as well.
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: Like in the large, I guess like what I'm thinking
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: about is like the $ 20 Millie maker.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: This is mostly a single, single entry. So for your
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: point makes perfect sense.
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: But for me, just for those that are playing in
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: the larger field stuff as well, I guess I'm saying
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: early in the season, I'm finding in my research and
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: just going back to my lineups and how they've got
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: crushed in the past in these weeks is that it's
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: usually I'm overstacking or I'm almost too heavy on the stacks.
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: And there was just like a prime value play right there.
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: But I tried to make Malik Washington work when I
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: could have just played the other guy that was in
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: a really good spot for 4k.
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: And that's how I'm looking at it. Yeah.
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: I mean, the other thing here is like, you know, you,
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: you brought up the, uh, the optimal lineup from week one,
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: but a lot of takedown lineups were double sacks last
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: week with a bring back. They, you know, they used shock. I,
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: they were, there were even some really good triples that
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: were shuck Olave Johnson and valet with, um, you know, uh, I,
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: if there was even one with like a double room back,
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: so you had that from the same side and then
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: you had Gibbs and I'm on Ross and Brown. And again,
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: it's still annoys me looking back that like, goodness gracious, that, that,
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: that one, it was dead through three quarters.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: And then it just came alive in the fourth.
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: And then of course they both, you know, both sides
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: of that stack benefited from, from overtime as well.
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: So a really good run out for, for those lineups
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: last week.
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: But the point being like, even in this environment where
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: a lot of offenses are producing and we do have,
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: you know, a lot of really underpriced players throughout all
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: of the DraftKings pricing, you, it's still true that, you know,
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: that also means that there are entire teams that are
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: really underpriced. Like I think of Washington this week, like,
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: you know, Daniels could be an extra $ 1, 000. McLaurin could
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: be an extra $ 1, 000. Gibbs could be an extra $ 500.
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: And then as bringbacks, Pickens could be an extra $ 1, 000.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: Lamb could be.
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: Another $ 500. Williams could be another $ 500. So, sure, you're
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: more likely to be right about the guys around the
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: stack as one-offs because of the pricing, but you're also
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: more likely to be right about the entire stack because
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: of the pricing. And you run into fewer issues where
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: you start to get into the portion... uh, uh, of
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: pricing where guys are inversely correlated. You know, we've seen
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: in the past, like, you know, when Jamar chase gets
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: to 8,000 and next to him is T Higgins at 6,800,
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: it's really hard for both of them to put up
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: ceiling performances for their prices. 7,360, 300 for lamb and, uh,
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: and pickings this week. That's much, much, much more attainable
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: there for, for both of them to put up really
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: strong performances. Yeah.
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: I was, I was looking at this line.
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: There's definitely a bunch of double stacks in there, but
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: like the winning lineup last week had love for, With Watson.
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: And that to me is like thinking about it like
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: a Purdy situation with like Evans or something. But he
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: still ended up getting Gibbs and Henry. He went with
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: the secondary with Coker and Swift. Goddard, but he's not
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: on Hurts or Barkley, who we had a lot of
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: talk in the industry last week about and like different
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: situations there. Played a one-off in DJ Moore and then had,
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: which is connected to a good quarterback, obviously, and unfortunately
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: injured now, but just noting it. And then Steelers D
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: was in the prime spot last week against Rush, I believe, correct?
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: So I mean, like that's an example, again, a bunch
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: of good double stacks in here, but I just thought
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: about it from that perspective. Like when you're seeing it
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: this week and looking at it, I guess I'm trying
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: to help people make, you know, go down the route that.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: You're going on. I'm not disagreeing with Alex.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: I'm saying that I just really have spent a lot
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: more time looking at my lineups and critiquing them where
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: it's like, sometimes I think I go too far down
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: the stacking route in the early part of the season
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: when there is so many values and options and ways
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: to get unique in your lineup while still staying very correlated.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: Like you still have a secondary stack. You still have
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: a stack.
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying like your point and you, you said
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: you broke your rule last week and you did it too.
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: And you wish you didn't, but it's like that to
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: me made sense. I had a Herbert, um, a Herbert McConkie,
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: Quinton Johnston lineup with no run back as well in
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: one of my mains. And it was, I just liked
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: it in the Sims.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: It was good.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: So, you know, Shadow, you got Sims over there at
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: Blick Analytics as well. So, you know, you can see
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: what these things break out like. And that to me
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: looked fine last week. And so I just trusted myself.
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: It didn't work, by the way, but just noting it,
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: it's like those are the little things and lessons that
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: I try and, you know, think about and pass along.
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: And it's nice just to be able to talk through
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: it with somebody else who has the data, can see it.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: So I was curious back to the original question.
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: Can you bring that back up? I want to talk
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: about that fifth lineup for a moment. I think there's
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: kind of a cool thing in here too. So this
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: fifth lineup was a Bryce Young double stack. And the
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: reason I bring this up is because I think if
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: you ask this guy, like, okay, if you had single stacked,
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: what would that stack have looked like? I think it
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: probably would have been something like Bryce Young with Tet.
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: And then instead of Coker going to like the chalkier,
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: the higher probability, Quentin Johnston. And obviously, we know how
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: that played out, right? Like, Coker beat him by 35
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: DraftKings points. So you also, if you're double-sacking, if you're correlating,
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: you run into these scenarios where, like, you would have
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: made the incorrect decision of which receiver to pair with him,
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: but because you used both, you ended up getting the
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: massive performance that really helped your quarterback. And sure, the
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: other receiver you used, like, Tet could have been somebody better,
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: but that's not the decision you would have made. And
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: so it gives you a much higher probability of finding
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: somebody the ceiling performance within your stack. Uh, if you
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: go to the double and, and like, so for example,
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: this week, like if you have a Jaden's stack and
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: you think, Oh, I just want to single with McLaurin. Well,
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: what if digs goes for like eight and 102 and
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: McLaurin only has, you know, seven receptions for 90 yards.
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: Like you're going to be really disappointed with Jaden McLaurin.
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: You're going to be very happy with Jaden digs McLaurin
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: and it could very easily play out that way. And
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: so I, that was just another kind of point I
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: wanted to make that it's, It's not just about getting
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: everyone in your lineup to hit. It's just getting somebody
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: in your lineup to give you that difference-making performance that
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: you need to have on the slate. If you had Coker,
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: and that, by the way, is maybe more true in
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: the small field stuff when you don't need to hit
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: in every spot of the lineup. You didn't need a
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: 272-point performance to win a small $ 200 single entry last
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: week where it's a lot easier to take and survive
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: the 11-point performance from McMillan, but But yeah, I think
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: that's a really kind of key reason why double stacks
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: are as effective as they are. It's it's not that
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: you get the ceiling performance from both. So you don't
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: actually need the ceiling performance from both. You need the
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: ceiling performance from one, and that gives you a better
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: chance of doing that.
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and like I said, there's a lot of factors
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: at play here. So it's not a disagree. We're not saying,
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely not saying not to stack. I stack everything
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: and Scooter brings it up here. Like it's obviously, you know,
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: in the higher dollar, smaller field stuff or just smaller
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: field stuff in general, you can get away with a
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: lot of those situations.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: And that's why the double stack works better.
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: The example Alex just gave actually of like when Diggs doesn't,
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: when Diggs goes off, but McLaurin doesn't come through in
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: a hundred dollar single entry with a thousand people or less,
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: but Diggs still has, you know, or I forget who
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: you said went off. Let's say digs goes off, but
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: McLaurin doesn't, but McLaurin still has like 12.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: You could still be fine, but that's.
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: Not even going to come close in a $ 20 Millie maker.
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: And so to the rebuttal part of the other factor
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: that I'm bringing up is I'm not, not stacking.
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: Like I said, I'm using like a example of this week.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: Like I said, where it's like Purdy Evans Debo it's there.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: I'm saying it's not when in week seven and beyond
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: when the pricing is way tighter and That's why we've
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: always lobbied for the exact point Alex just made. Even
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: in the larger fields, it's like, look, man, just throw
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: in Malik Washington and hope it's him that pushes the
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: game and makes the other stuff work and you have
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: one less spot to choose from. And that's why we've
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: been selling that and talking about that for years. What
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: my original question was and what we sort of got
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: into the good conversation here is about the early season data.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: It's not just.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: like people say like, Oh, like I'm going to now
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: I have to guess who's right in that one other spot.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: I'm saying, I don't want to guess who the Miami
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: guy is. I don't even know if it's going to
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: be a receiver. I don't want HN. I don't have him,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: but I know I have like.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: Four other plays.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: Cause the pricing is so soft that are projecting. Well,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: unique enough, still sim. Well, still look good. Like everything's good.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: And I'm not playing Schultz. It's actually still a leverage play.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: I'm just using the booty example. So I'm just choosing
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: to play booty. instead of Malik Washington. And it's really
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: just one wide receiver spot, but I'm still actually leveraging
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: a tight end chalk week by playing this guy. And
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: then maybe I have Derek Henry and another good running
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: back and something else. And you still fill it out nicely.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: It's like, you still have a ton of stuff going
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: on there. You just don't have to choose the Miami
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: guy if you don't want to. And I still have
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: a double stack and I'm still going to need one
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: of them to push it to make that game work.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: But I just didn't pick them in my build. That's
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: what I'm thinking about. So again, good.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: Conversation, good back and forth. I think that's kind of
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: the point of all of it, but should be double stack.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: There's one more thing I want to mention on this.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: I think there are some really strong arguments for why
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: like a double stack would be less effective in an
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: MME contest than in a single entry. But I would
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: also just remind people that It's also used more in
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: the single entry stuffs, right? So it can be equally underused,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 4: even if it does make more sense just in a
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: vacuum to do the double stack with a bring back
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: or even triple stacks with a bring back in the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: smaller field contest.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: And so.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: When you're building many lineups the way that you often are, Tambo,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: like it's also very true that like, you know, you
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: can pick one or two lineups or even more than that,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: where you're not doing the full stacking and you can
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: still be overweight versus the field on how many lineups
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: you have the double stack with a bring back or
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: triple with a bring back. And so you can still
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: play that really, really well when you have lineups that
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: don't do it. And you know, you can pick your
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: spots like maybe in that Miami stack, uh, personally for me,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: like it would be a chance to bring back instead
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: of having to choose all those, uh, between all those receivers. But,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: but yeah, I think, uh, really kind of productive conversation.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: And now I'm excited to kind of talk about some
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: of our favorite convictions.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I'll let you roll first on that.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: I just rented enough there, but just, um, any, anything
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: else that you wanted to cover before.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: We get to that?
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: Do you want to do like a new, um, new segment?
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: It's like, uh, what's the field most overconfident about this week?
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: Cause I think, I think that was something we wanted
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: to talk about a little bit too. Yeah.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: And it sounds like you do. So I'm now I'm
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: excited to do it as well. So let, yeah, you
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: start and then I'll, I'll roll after you. I'll see
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: what you get.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: Let me think of which one I want to start
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: with because I've got two and I think there's a
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 4: decent chance that you're going to hit it as well.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: I think that.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: I'm going to go with the team level. I think
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: that people are going to be too confident in what
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: they saw last week from each team continuing over to
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: this week. There are times where you absolutely want to
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: learn from week one and I think where that's especially
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 4: true is if you had a strong conviction about a
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: team coming into this year and then They backed up
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: that conviction in week one. You should be slightly more
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: confident about it here in week two than you were
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: in week one. Doesn't mean you should feel like it's
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: guaranteed to happen, but you absolutely should adjust for what
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: you saw. And similarly, like if a team surprised you,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: you should be a little bit less confident in your
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: preseason kind of evaluation of that team. But let's also
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: remember that, you know, last year in week one, the
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: Patriots lost to the Raiders. And the Raiders looked like
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: one of the most explosive passing offenses in the league.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: I think Geno Smith had like 11 explosive passes or
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: something against that Patriots defense. The Patriots continued to be
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: really bad through the air for the first few weeks.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: I think Christian Gonzalez being out for the first few
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: weeks last year had a lot to do with that.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: But then for the rest of the season, like the
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: Patriots didn't allow explosive passes. We know how bad that
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: Raiders offense turned out to be. So yes, we should
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: learn from week one, but let's also remember that certain
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: performances from week one are going to look like complete
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: aberrations compared to that team's entire season's worth of play
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: and performance. And, uh, and so we should remember that
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: both on the offensive side and the defensive side. And, and, uh, uh,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: you know, I think that's where, that's where people are
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: going to be. I think the, the quickest to, um,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: to be overconfident about what happened last week is basically saying, Oh,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: this defense is clearly like an amazing fantasy matchup.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I want to attack them. Maybe they're not quite as
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: bad or anywhere near as bad as what they look
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: like in week one defensively.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that one.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: I think, you know, mine would be along similar lines,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: but just noting it, I think both, I think the
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: running back chalk and the tight end chalk, I'm taking both. Like,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: I think it's like, there's just, it's, it's always an
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: overconfidence in week two, but a lot of it is,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: you know, foolish when you think about it for some
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: of the cases of what we talked about already, like
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: tight end.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: I'll, I'll use tight end. Cause you know, Bijan probably
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: better off.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: I had to choose like the easiest one for me
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: is the tight end spot because we labeled it earlier
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: on this very show. of like five different ways you
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: could do it with using plays, using pivots, using roster construction.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: There's just so many ways that you can leverage. And
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: you could say that about anything, but it's where is
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: the overconfidence? That's what we're talking about now. To me,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: it's like when people are just like, well, I got
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: to have Andrews or I got to have Schultz. And
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: that's taking up a majority of the lineups.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: It's neat.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: Like those guys could do their median, like you talked about.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: And it's just one guy to beat them. is all
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: you really need. And so you could fill it in or,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: or multiple guys can tie them, but at different price
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: points and things like that. So I think that's where
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: I see the biggest overconfidence this week is going to
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: be in the tight end shock and just plugging these
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: guys in based.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: Off what you said at best, the wide receiver injuries are,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: could affect them.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: I think it affects the Ravens less, but the Ravens
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: also have a lot of competition when you've got Lamar
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: and Henry alone. And then there's other options there. It's
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: not just Mark Andrews week. And then the side for
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: Schultz is like, yeah, he's cheap and he can just
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 3: make things work. But I don't even really know if
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: you need that this week, like we saw with how
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: many other ways you could still fit great lineups. And
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: then on top of it, it's like you've got um,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: no Nico. So if, if the said people use that
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: as a positive, that could be a negative to your point.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: Like I could just shut that offense down. And that
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: could have been the case. That's another interesting thing.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: I think there's like a little bit of interest in,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: in Joku, but nothing chalk wise at all, not even close,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: but there'll be even less. If McConkie plays, like it
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: seems like McConkie is going the neighbor's route this week
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: of like, he's just going to show up and decide
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: on Sunday if he's good to go or not. Well,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: if he plays, that would take even more people, but
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: And Joker was still out there running the road. Like,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: I think he's still going to be out there no
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: matter what and getting involved. So I think he's fine
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: either way at three K, whether he's a one-off stacked up,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: whatever you want to do. So I just think the
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: overconfidence is more at the tight end position than anywhere.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: Else this week.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: I like that. I'm going to, I'm going to build
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: on that with, with one more piece here.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: And that is, I think people are going to overreact
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: to week one and play too much running back or
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: tight end in the flex. And, and of course, like we,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: you know, we saw, We saw a lot more really
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: good performances last week from running backs and receivers.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not debating that in any way, shape, or form.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: But just one season ago, just one season ago, wide
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: receivers were used in the flex 42% of the time.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: And lineups with wide receivers in the flex were overrepresented
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: in about the top 10% and way overrepresented in the
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: top 1% of lineups. So wide receiver in the flex
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: was really strong. 36% used running backs in the flex.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: 22% used tight ends in the flex. Tight end lineups
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: were basically like break even, and running backs really were
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: underrepresented in the top 10% and top 1% of lineups,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: so they were bad strategies last year.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: Here we are one year later.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: We're in week two, and I'm currently projecting 57% running
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 4: back in the flex, 34% tight end in the flex,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: and only 10% wide receiver in the flex. So I
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: think that's going to be a really big inefficiency this week.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: I think wide receiver in the flex is a really
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 4: strong way to build just purely because, you know, last
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: year it was a winning strategy when four times as
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: many people were using wide receivers in the flex at
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: all from from week one and the pricing and, you know,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: the available.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Just games and matchups. That, of course, is part of it.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: And it's not like everybody.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: Single week last year, 42% were used and wide receiver
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: in the flex was always the better route. But generally speaking,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: wide receiver in the flex was better last year, even
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: though it was used far more often than it was
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: in week one and even more so here in week two.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: And so that's I think a really, Kind of an
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: interesting note and a strong way to build this week.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that because it's a double whammy, right?
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: It's also bringing across your first point of like the
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: week one overconfidence that comes across in general. It's mainly
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: because like people can say, well, it's because of pricing.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: It's because it's no, it's like legit because last week
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: running back smashed and a bunch of them scored 30 plus.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: So everyone's like, no way you could use wide receiver
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: or tight end in the flex anymore. Or if they're
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: at least doing the next stage, it would be like,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: I'll go back to tight end in the flex because
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: it does this for me. But you don't see that
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 3: this week. It's like you said, it's a majority overconfidence.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: People are going to be going running back and bringing
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: that thought across. I use this all the time, but
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: it's the same as the you get like a tight
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: spread on a Sunday night, like a, I don't know,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: minus two and a half favorite at home. And then
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: all of a sudden they pound the other team 31
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: to three and you see five, one lineups smashed in
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: showdown and people like, damn, that's crazy. And then the
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: next night on Monday night football is a nine and
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: a half point favorite. So it's funny because it was
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: already going to be busy with five ones, but because
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: everyone just saw five, one smash the night before people
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: start building those same lineups and you always see it
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: go up. massively in people's portfolios like five ones are
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 3: just blasted everywhere now the next night it ends up
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: being a tighter game or there's a condensed they don't
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: factor in condensed offenses and how this is actually going
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: to play out and it's like even if this team
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: gets blown out they throw to like two guys so
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: that's gonna be uh you know it could be a
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: four two it could be a three three like it's
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: there's so many other ways so you it's not just
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: to fade the field like people always think oh you're
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: just doing the opposite of what everybody does it's like
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: just think for a second. Like what makes sense? What
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: doesn't make sense? And then put it together. I know
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: it's easier said than done. It's not saying we're the
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: best at it. It's noting more of like, that's the
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: fun part of the game. And oftentimes it is the
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: pendulum swing from week to week. And that's what we
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: really have to adapt. That's what this show is all about.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: So hopefully you guys enjoy it. Make sure to hit
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: that thumbs up and subscribe. We've still got our leverage
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: lanes to get to Alex. Anything else you want to
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: touch on before we get there? Yeah.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: I just want to make one more note on, on this,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: like running back first wide receiver in the flex conversation.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: Where it does make sense is when you look at
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: the pricing, you just look at projections, and this is
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: going to be true on the industry, but I'm just
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: going to use mine here.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: Bijan projects almost eight points ahead of Jackson Smith and Jigba.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: McCaffrey's ahead of Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and CeeDee Lamb.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Henry's ahead of those guys as well.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: Down the board a little bit, A-Chan is ahead of
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: some of the receivers around him. You get Bucky Irving
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: ahead of Bucky Irving and Javante Williams ahead of a
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: lot of the receivers around them. Pickens is one outlier there,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: but then after that, it becomes a lot more even.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: You start to see wide receivers closer in projection to
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: their running back counterparts in pricing. And the other point is,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: while running backs have a clear edge in projection, when
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 4: you start looking at ceiling and super ceiling, the wide
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: receivers really tighten that gap. And so I think that's
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: another kind of key point where too many people are
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: building for, like, what is the median outcome, not recognizing
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: the fact that this is a ceiling-based game. And we're looking,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: especially in our flex spot, we're looking for those real separators.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: I'm thinking in my head, like, I'm going to do
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: this because I know what I want to use, but
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: it might be yours, so I want to see.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: But you can go first.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: No, I want you to go first because I have two,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: and I went first last week.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: Okay. Okay.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: It's a, it's a, I woke up this morning to
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: some nice information that doubled down on what I already
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: had built previously. And I'm actually going to tie it
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: all together. Now I'm using Mike Evans in the flex.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: Mike Evans in the flex is going to win the
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 3: money this week. If you're not on McCaffrey, you're not
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: on that spot. Now I'm going to tie it all together.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: I know you like Mike Evans. I woke up this morning,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: saw some props. I said, oh, even better. Now he's
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: all over this too. And I saw projections up and
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: things like that. So if you guys aren't over with
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: Alex in his Discord, we're having a good time in
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: there too.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: You can check it out. Go to Blick Analytics. Get in.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: You can use code TAMBO to get a discount as well.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: But just get in there. That's the main point. Get in.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: Check it all out. But we're definitely... seeing some stuff.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: And that's one, when I woke up to that this morning,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: I was like, oh man, this is going to be
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: a good week, good show.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: But now that you said the, in the flex thing
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: at the end, I, I flipped to that from what
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: I was going to be on.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: I told you guys earlier though, I like Brock Purdy
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: stacks as well. So I could have said that or
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: tied it in. I do like some other things, but
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: I'll take that one and I'll go Mike Evans and
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: I'll for my boy, Alex, use them in the flex.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think Mike Evans is such a phenomenal
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: play this week. I think he has the highest GPP
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: score for me. And So one of the interesting things
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: that I'm doing this year in my projections, I have
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: various scenarios and like, there are, they're all derived in
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: different ways. You know, so one's like purely from the market.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: One is historically driven. One kind of blends those two together, but,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: but in like the most predictive way. So multiple models
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: kind of trying to model like, okay, this is what
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: his target share is. This is what his average has
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: of targets going to be.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: So on and so forth.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: And that goes through the contest or through the game sim.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: That's how I get his projection. But then we also have,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: like outlier scenarios, like, well, what if, what if all
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: these inputs are wrong? What if this is not his role?
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: What if his role is meaningfully different? And the most
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: common way that it would be meaningfully different this week
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: is what if Shanahan just realizes like, my God, I
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 4: have an unbelievably good wide receiver on my team now.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: And I'm potentially the best play caller when it comes
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: to just like scheming guys open and scheming one-on-one opportunities.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 4: Like that was the thing that stood out to me
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: when watching in week one was how many routes and
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: just route concepts, put everybody at various parts of the
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: field and just left Mike Evans in this like vast
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: amount of space in one-on-one coverage against somebody. And he
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: just became wide open and it was an easy pitch
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 4: and catch. Then they got to the red zone and
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: it was a very clear, like, Hey, you know what?
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: We have this like cheat code in the red zone now,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: or we can just line him up out wide, let
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: him go one-on-one and parties. One of the more accurate
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: quarterbacks in the league. He can put the ball where
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: he needs to, where it's an easy pitch and catch
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: touchdown and So I think I think we could see
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: like a huge, huge touchdown type season from Evans.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: I also think we could see.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: So basically, like the various models all had him between
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 4: 22 percent and 24 and a half percent target share.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: And then there's this outlier outcome where, well, what if
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 4: he's just treated as like an alpha and has a
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: 27 percent target share and a 30 percent target share.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: In the red zone?
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: And the thing that I really like about Evans this
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: week is he's a good play. in all of the base,
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: like just, you know, spit out scenarios where he's just
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: what all these models think he's going to be. And
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: my goodness, if you get the outcome where he's the
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: 27% target share alpha, the thing about that is like,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: that's just the, you know, that's the quote unquote true
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: target share. When he's a 27% true target share player,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: you're going to get like 10 times more games where
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: he's at 35% target share, 37% target share, then you
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: will if he's a true target share, 22% type of guy.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: So it just.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 4: Unlocks so much ceiling for him. I love the Mike
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 4: Evans play. If you didn't make Mike Evans your leverage lane,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: I was going to.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: So I will switch.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: I gave you the option to go first, but the
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: other thing I just wanted to add quickly is that
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: it's also what's in the range. Like people will be
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: much more likely to have Javante Williams right there. So
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: maybe I can have Evans and something like you can
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: mix it up and get different that way. You could
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: have Ferguson at tight end. We didn't talk about earlier
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: where Goddard just smashed them last week. Oh, maybe that
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: carries over.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: No one's saying anything about that.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: Maybe it, that's overkill to an overconfidence, but no one's
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: really playing him. So it doesn't matter, but I'm just
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: saying there's other ways you can build, but that was
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: what I liked about him as well.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: Why drew the flex joke in there? Cause it's true.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: He has a flex option.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 3: And also that's where I have them right now, but
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: just noting it, you brought that point up about playing
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: a wide receiver in the flex.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: So I had to double down, but I'll let you
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: roll with yours.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: I'm, I am concerned about steam for, for the quarterback
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: and for one of the wide receivers and for the
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: bring backs. But I'm still going to make my leverage lane,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: the Washington double stack here. I thought, so this is
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: a really cool stat from, from FTN fantasy. The Eagles
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: defense was the best in the league last year at
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: preventing open wide receivers. It's just like, I think, you know,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: it's one of the purest measures of how good are
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: you at covering the opponent is how, how infrequently can
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: you give them easy completions?
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: The Eagles were number one in that. They were also
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: number one enforcing tight coverage. same idea, right? It's just,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: it's the opposite.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: And it's not just how infrequently are you giving them, um, uh,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 4: easy completions. It's how frequently are you giving them difficult,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: difficult completions? And the Eagles were number one in both.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: And in week one against Washington, they were even better
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: than they were last year in both of those categories.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: And yet Jane and Daniels played well, Jane and Daniels, uh,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: really allowed them to move the ball. I was extremely
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: impressed with him. I was impressed with Stefan Diggs, as
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: I mentioned earlier. So I think that against now a
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: Dallas defense that looked like crap against a Giants passing
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: attack that is nowhere near as good as what this
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: Washington offense can be. Shout out to that Giants offense
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 4: and that Dallas defense last week because they got me
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: an immediate ticket in the Sunday night showdown. That was
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: a really kind of cool way to start the season.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: And I think that attacking this Dallas defense is going
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: to be kind of profitable throughout the year, as.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: I expected early on.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: And the other element of that, too, is it wasn't
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 4: just like, oh, these guys really struggled to cover. It
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 4: was like there seemed to be a big, big disconnect
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 4: between what the new defensive coordinator Parker wanted that coverage
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: to look like and what the players were executing. That
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 4: doesn't seem like something that they can clean up in
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: exactly one week. And so I think this Washington offense
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: is a chance to put up a lot of points
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: and the vast majority of it will be through Jane
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: and Daniels. And as I mentioned, like even if Daniels
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: steams and instead of the 9% that I currently haven't
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 4: projected at, which I think is already highest in the industry.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 4: Even if that becomes 15 and McLaurin goes to 15
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: or 20, I think that the combinatorial ownership of Daniels, Diggs,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 4: McLaurin is still going to be really low.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: And then I'm probably not going to use Gervonta as
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: a bring back. I'm going to use one of the receivers.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: So I think I'm still pretty protected on the overall stack.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: And so it'll be my leverage lane.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: Real quick question on that too. I just curious.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: Cause would you consider Williams? I know you did mention
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: this a little bit earlier. It didn't seem like you
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: were leaning one way or the other, but you know,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: with what William did was Williams, a product of the
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: Philly defense that you just talked about. And that's where
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: you see McLaurin coming back into the mix, or are
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: you still fine? If people wanted to roll the double
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: with him, cause that would be even less, even if
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: those other guys do get some steam, William would slice
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: into that either way as the second guy, or if
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: you want to go all the way, in higher field,
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: smaller stuff where you play all of them.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: But I'm just saying in general, would you have interest
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: in Williams in the double?
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: I am interested in Williams.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: I think that we could end up seeing this season
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: look a lot like the wide receiver dynamic from a
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: few years ago when I think it was McLaurin Crowder
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: and Dotson. Remember Dotson's rookie season when he scored a
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: bunch of touchdowns? Maybe Williams makes himself really fantasy relevant
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: by being this year's Dotson and just scoring all these touchdowns.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 4: But it's worth noting, Antonio Williams ran 13 routes. Deami
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: Brown ran 24 in week one. As long as that's
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: the case, it's going to.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: Be very, very difficult.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: Now, the other potential reason why he could run more
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 4: routes this week being Williams is I believe Chico Conquo
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: has already been ruled out.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: If not, he's on the wrong side of questionable. Chig
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: ran 21 routes.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: Certainly Bates and Sinan are going to make up some
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: of that, but I also think we could just see
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: more three wide receiver sets. And so maybe that gets
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: Williams onto the field more. I think there's a good
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: chance that he just earned himself more reps and more
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: routes based on his week one performance and how ineffective,
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: like completely invisible Deami Brown was. But, uh, but yeah,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: until I see that, I don't think that thousand dollars
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: is worth it because I think digs is a really,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: really strong play. Maybe what I would do is I
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: also won three tickets into the 5-5-5 Millie this week
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 4: from that showdown with the Giants and Cowboys. So what
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: I would consider doing, if let's say I had six lineups,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: then maybe I would do something like, okay, I'm going
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: to do a McLaurin-Diggs combo, a Diggs-Williams combo, and a
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: McLaurin-Williams combo, and then all three combos are going to
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: have both Pickens or Lamb as their bringback. And so
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: I'm putting all my eggs in the basket of this
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 4: game going off, and now I'm covering pretty much all
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: the combinations, that I think are most likely of how
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: this game goes off. But with only three lineups or specifically,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: I think I might only have one that I'm entering
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 4: into a lot of satellites like that main one. I
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: just think the, the McLaurin digs combination is so much
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: stronger than anything else in terms of how to use
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 4: Washington that I think I'll just go there.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: All right. Good one for this week, guys. I think
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a lot of fun.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: Every slate is fun in the NFL, but talking through
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 3: it and just having more angles that we can approach
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: from how we do it on this show, this is
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: definitely one of the better weeks for week two. Always
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: a good one every season from bringing the confidence over
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: that people have into week two.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: Good show. Good back and forth.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: Make sure you guys hit that thumbs up. Check out ShipItNation.com.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: Check out BlickAnalytics.com. If you guys have any questions, you
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: can hit up either of us on X. Thank you
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: guys for watching. For Alex, for myself, ToeTag, and Tambo,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: good luck in your contest this week.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it!