Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 325 - 7/29/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 325 - 7/29/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 325 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys. Only a few days left in the
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month of July. We got today, Wednesday,
0:44
Thursday, Thursday. We do have the NFL Hall of Fame
0:46
game as I mentioned on yesterday's pod, so who knows,
0:50
might have a play on that or not.
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But I did see today we found out who the starting quarterback for
0:54
the LA Chargers will be. Nope, it's not Justin Herbert,
0:57
Trey Lance, Raise your hand if you knew Trey Lance was on the
1:00
Chargers. We did get that piece of info.
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We're still holding pretty steady.
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Detroit minus one 1 1/2 total of around 32 and a half 33.
1:09
So we'll keep an eye on that. But as the month of of July here
1:14
kind of winds down, that means we're one day closer to the
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release of my second book. The NFL Sharp Betting playbook
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comes out August 12th. That's exactly, I'm not great at
1:24
math, but that's exactly 2 weeks from today, August 12th, 2025.
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And I'm actually holding in my hand the NFL Sharp Betting
1:32
Playbook because I got a couple of boxes.
1:35
The cool thing about being an author is when you have a book
1:37
that's gets released, usually they will give you, you know,
1:40
like a carton of, you know, fifty 100 bucks.
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So triumph was nice enough to send me my share of books and
1:46
I've been starting to hand them out to my family members and
1:48
some of my friends. But I wanted to kind of let you
1:51
guys know. And again, I'm not going to give
1:52
you any spoilers or anything, but I wanted to give you a quick
1:55
rundown of the chapters in the book because I just figured,
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hey, hopefully you guys have some interest in buying a copy.
2:01
It's only 24 bucks. You can pre-order it on
2:03
Amazon.com right now. I would love for you guys to do
2:06
that because it would make me happy, make Triumph folks, my
2:08
publisher happy. But just to kind of get you
2:11
thinking about the book and get you excited for the NFL season,
2:14
I wanted to list the 10 chapters in the book so you have a little
2:17
bit of an idea of kind of what you're getting when you purchase
2:20
a copy of the book. So Chapter 1, the basics of
2:24
sports betting, we all got to start somewhere, tells you about
2:27
how a sports book works, setting the line, favorites versus dog
2:30
spread, money, line total in the juice, pretty standard.
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You have to have that foundation of sports betting if you're able
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to, especially for new betters, kind of create that philosophy,
2:39
that foundation and then work kind of beyond that.
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Chapter 2, know what you're getting into and in parentheses
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and what you're up against. So I talked about luck,
2:49
randomness, the human element, the house edge, the magic
2:52
number, keeping your emotions in check.
2:54
Don't bet like a fan, ignore the noise.
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Recency bias, confirmation bias, gambler's fallacy.
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So I'm kind of in each chapter 2, I have like kind of an
3:02
opening paragraph where I kind of make some sort of kind of
3:06
like a, you know, not an allegory, but some sort of, I
3:10
would guess you could call it an analogy or a comparison.
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So I was talking about in the 2nd chapter how if you remember
3:16
in Men in Black, the neuralizer, that little thing that they'll,
3:20
you know, kind of flash in front of your, in front of your face
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looks like the pen. And then it kind of just erases
3:25
your brain. Well, that chapter 2 is about
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erasing your brain because a lot of people have expectations
3:30
going into betting, but they don't really know what it's
3:31
like. So it kind of sets the
3:32
foundation for you. Chapter 3, bankroll management,
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define your bankroll. How much should you bet per
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game? Flat betting.
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When to adjust your unit size? Bettress first bet to win
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Limiting your number of plays. Don't chase.
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Avoid parlays. Same game parlays.
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Don't buy picks Don't buy points.
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So we're defining A bankroll. Chapter 4.
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One of my favorites. Contrarian betting.
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What is contrarian betting? The method to the madness.
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Rooting for the sports books. Who's the public?
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The public loves favorites. Dogs, home teams, overs shaded
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inflated lines, contrarians, dogs, Rd. teams and unders.
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How to go contrarian trust but verify lean on bet splits How to
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interpret bet splits Buy low sell high Embrace fishy lines
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Wrong team is favored. No it's not one of my favorites.
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Bet against American the experts fade your non sports betting
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friends. Contrarian sweet spots primetime
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dogs Primetime wonders Fade the trendy dog in the future of
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contrarian betting chapter 5 follow sharp action.
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Another one of my faves. Who are the sharps?
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Sharps have inside info. Sharps bet numbers, not teams.
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Expected value and implied probability.
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Sometimes sharps lose, Sharps get limited, sharps get the best
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numbers. I have a section on Jimmy the
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Greek and Billy Walters and then what I really like.
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How to identify sharp action RLM steam moves, line freeze,
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Bedford's dollar discrepancies, 5050 line moves.
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Chapter 6 NFL betting concepts. So we're getting into the nitty
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gritty here. Closing line value key numbers
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teasers TS through key numbers look headlines middling hedging
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arbitrage live betting live line favorites that get down early
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live line unders after early scoring Chapter 7 NFL betting
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systems tips and strategies. So the difference between trends
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and betting systems and then I get into all my favorite betting
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systems. Rd. dogs divisional dogs dogs
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off a blowout loss windy unders unders that fall how to create a
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betting system and then we get into the nitty gritty of
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metamorphosis of a line game day movement dog to fave line moves
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on my faves always money line short favorites schedule spots
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week one week two Thursday Night Football rest first tired by
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weeks chapter 8 how to bet online and in person.
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Now it's starting to create this foundation and now you actually
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want to place a bet. The rise of online betting live
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odds page, Shop for the best line Twitter and injury reports
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how to bet online bet tracking app how to bet in person and
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what to say at the window. Chapter 9 Other ways to bet the
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NFL. Now we're getting into all the
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other supplementary opportunities.
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Player props AI and sports betting betting the preseason
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information based bets, first half money lines Hall of Fame
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game coming up here soon International series
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Thanksgiving Day Week 18 go contrarian in the playoffs, How
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to bet the Super Bowl, how to bet Super Bowl props NFL draft
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betting tips win totals and then chapter 10.
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It's called stick to the playbook, the rookie crossroads
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be a decider in chief and a competitor.
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Perform autopsies on your bets. The importance of mental
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toughness, next bet mentality. It's all about the data, the
6:37
final checklist, check off all the boxes, when to place your
6:40
bet, how to sweat your bet, the gateway to other sports and
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finally, the final word. Then you get acknowledgements
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and a little bit about the author.
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So that's what you can expect from the NFL sharp betting
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playbook. I just, you know, rambled off
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the 10 chapters and all the different topics, but really I'm
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proud of this because it kind of just provides A blueprint how to
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bet the, you know, most popular sport in the world, which of
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course is the NFL and not from a yeah, public bias there.
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This team is due yadda, yadda. No, from a data-driven
7:09
perspective. So if you want to get a leg up
7:10
on the NFL, if you want to check out, you know, or get prepared
7:15
to get that NFL sharpening playbook shipped to you as soon
7:18
as it comes out August 12th. That's kind of what you can
7:21
expect here. I'll just give you a quickly the
7:23
write up on the back the ultimate guide to betting like a
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pro. Sports betting is one of the
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fastest growing and most lucrative industries in America
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today, generating an eye popping 150 billion in bets and 14
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billion in revenue in 2024 alone.
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In the NFL is the most heavily bet sport by far.
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With legalized betting in 39 States and more to come in the
7:43
future, millions of Americans are looking to get in on the
7:46
action for the first time. But where do they begin?
7:48
The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook is an honest, no nonsense, soup
7:51
to nuts guide on how to win betting, America's most popular
7:54
sport. From basic terminology to the
7:56
finer points of examining matchups, you'll learn how to
7:59
interpret line movement and bet splits.
8:01
Go contrarian, identify sharp action, Build and manage a
8:04
bankroll. Follow winning betting systems,
8:06
Shop for the best line bet in person and online.
8:09
Bet player props, live lines, teasers, win totals, the
8:12
preseason, playoff, Super Bowl and more betting.
8:16
This is kind of funny because it's me.
8:18
Betting expert Josh Applebaum takes you through the insurance
8:20
and outs of sports betting, teaching you how to leave your
8:23
biases at the door and make sharp, data-driven bets with
8:25
your head and not your heart. Wagering a little scratch on
8:27
your favorite team to win is fun, but cashing your bet, now
8:30
that's a win. So there you go.
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Just wanted to, I don't know, start the hype.
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We're two weeks out, but that's a little bit of insight into the
8:38
NFL sharp betting playbook, which again, you can make my day
8:40
by purchasing or pre ordering a copy.
8:43
I should say on Amazon.com. Now that being said, guys, I do
8:47
have a three pack of sweats for you today.
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No NFL, even though we mentioned the Hall of Fame game.
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I do have 3 plays in MLB. Of course, you know the drill.
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Let's try to go 2 in one each out of winning day.
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Unfortunately, looking toward yesterday, one of the most
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frustrating nights, I would say in in quite a while.
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O and 3 -, 3 units. So nearly a golden sombrero,
9:06
though that's O and four striking out four times with the
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Yankees let us down. Couldn't get anything going
9:11
offensively. The Giants, we got some CLV, got
9:14
a -130 they close like -135 they lose by one run.
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But the one that really hurt was the Red Sox, because I was
9:21
watching that game and the Red Sox had a four to three lead
9:24
going into the bottom of the ninth.
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And then the, the baseball gods, the, the, you know, the, the sky
9:29
opens up, it starts pouring. There's a rain delay for an hour
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and a half. They start the bottom of the
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ninth at like midnight. And Jordan Hicks, who their Sox
9:37
got in a trade recently with for Raphael Devers, he gives a base
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hit, hits 2 guys in a row and then gives up the, you know, the
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game losing if you're Red Sox better like me, game-winning, I
9:50
guess for the Twins to run single.
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So blowing a lead in the ninth, not fun.
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Red Sox hurt not only the game yesterday, but for the win total
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could use that win for the over 85 1/2.
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But you know what that's that's betting.
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Sometimes it happens. So we're going to stick to the
10:05
model, stick to the blueprint. See if we can get some revenge
10:07
here for tonight. So that being said, 3 pack of
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plays, let's dive right in first.
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But on the board for me, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
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Let's go to Cincinnati where the Red Legs are hosting the LA
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Dodgers now going in and we got the Dodgers 62 and 45 on the
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year. They won last night's series
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opener. 5 to 2. Cruised as a -150 Rd. favorite
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rematch for tonight. The Dodgers are going with the
10:31
ready Tyler Glass Now he's one and one 2.75 ERA Reds who are 56
10:37
and 51. They're going to go with the
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lefty Nick Lodolo. He's 8 and six with a
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three-point O 8 ERA. So what we've seen across the
10:44
market here, well, this game opened LA around a -, 145 -. 150
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Rd. favorite Cincinnati around a + 130 home dog.
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And it looks to me like wise guys, based on the market move
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are going with the Dodgers here to keep it rolling.
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Because we've seen the Dodgers creep up -145 -, 150 up to -155
11:04
- 160. It's not a massive move, not a
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10/20/30 cent steam move. We do have about 5 or up to
11:10
$0.10 a movement in favor of the Dodgers.
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Now in the importance of shopping for the best line.
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I got dodgers -150 at BET MGM, still available at -150, but
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again, other books are -155 -, 160.
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But to continue the cap here, it really jumped out to me of the
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Dodgers, not just a a huge move, a smallish move, but the bet
11:30
splits. They look really good on LA at
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Circa out in Vegas where they really pride themselves on
11:35
taking in smart money. But in Vegas at Circa, the
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Dodgers are getting 60% of money line bets, but nearly 90% of
11:43
money line dollars. So it tells me those bigger
11:45
wagers out in the desert leaning pretty heavily here on the
11:48
Dodgers system match for me favorites off a win with a
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winning record who made the playoffs the previous year
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getting at least $0.05 of line movement in their favor.
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Now it's kind of a mouthful for that system is 127 and 5769
12:02
percent 7% ROI this year. Dodgers would have that betting
12:06
system value non division favorite lack of familiarity
12:09
benefiting quote UN quote the better team who's expected to
12:12
win whole bank on the Dodgers offense hopefully getting to low
12:16
Dolo. They are on the year hitting two
12:18
54161 homers, 561 runs scored Reds hitting two 46109 homers,
12:25
487 runs scored. Tyler Glass.
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Now in particular, remember they made a trade with the Tampa Bay
12:32
Rays and signed into a big deal. When he's healthy, he's great,
12:35
but he's almost always hurt. However, he did just get come
12:38
back from the injured list and he's made three starts and he
12:41
has an ERA. In those three starts of one,
12:44
he's given up two earned runs and 18 innings pitched.
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And in night games this season he has a 0.82 ERA.
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So banking on hopefully Glass now pitching well.
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By the way, Lodolo on the road, he's been kind of unhittable,
12:58
2.23 ERA, but at home, 4.17 ERA. So we got a little bit of
13:02
movement toward the Dodgers. We got a great bet split, good
13:05
system match, better bats, and hopefully Glass now greater than
13:09
Lodolo. So first play on the other night
13:12
for me guys, I got the dodgers -150 at BET MGM again.
13:16
Shop around cuz some books are closer to -155 -, 160 Next step
13:21
for you. Let's get some revenge in the
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Twin City. Boston Red Sox at the Minnesota
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Twins, 7:40 PM Eastern Time, First pitch.
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The Twins don't remind me. 51 and 55 won last night's series
13:34
opener 5 to 4. Walked it off in the bottom of
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the ninth as a -, 110 home pick em.
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I really can't get over how that rain delay really screwed the
13:41
Red Sox again. Whatever, gotta let it go.
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In tonight's matchup, the Red Sox were 57 and 51.
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They're going to go with the ready Lucas Giolito.
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He's six and two with a 3.97 ERA on the year.
13:53
Twins, meanwhile, are going with Pearson OHL, OHL.
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Pearson OHL, great name, but he's making his Major League
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Baseball debut. Pearson OHL was a 14th round
14:04
draft pick in 2021. He has done pretty well in the
14:07
minors this year. Five and two, 2.17 ERA.
14:10
What have we seen across the market again, always notable to
14:14
me when you're going up against the rookie starting pitcher
14:16
making his debut. This game opened at basically
14:20
pick em get a lot of shops open minus one O 5 both sides -110
14:24
both sides somewhere slight Red Sox -115 Rd. favorite.
14:28
But either way, we've seen this line move further toward Boston
14:32
Red Sox now up to -120 even -125 across the market.
14:37
And that did coincide with this kid Pearson old being announced
14:40
as a starter. So when Oles announced the
14:43
starter, further movement toward the Red Sox, that tells me pro
14:46
batters hit the Red Sox wanted to fade this pitcher making his
14:50
debut. Now if you look at the bet
14:52
splits, they look pretty good on Boston both at DraftKings and
14:54
Circa. At DK Big National Book we have
14:57
71% of money line bets, 93% of money line dollars on the Sox
15:02
circus got 75% of bets, 85% of dollars on Boston.
15:07
So you have a low bets, higher dollar sharp split at both
15:09
DraftKings and Circa. I do have a few system matches
15:12
on the Red Sox. Rd. favorites off a loss getting
15:16
$0.10 of steam or more in their favor, they're 57 and 3165
15:20
percent, 9% ROI this year. Also short Rd. favorites -130 or
15:25
less off a loss, playing an opponent off a win, they're 60
15:30
and 4060 percent, 10% ROI. Red Sox do have that same non
15:36
division favorite value. Lack of familiarity benefiting
15:38
quote UN quote the better team and going to bank on the bats of
15:41
the Red Sox, hopefully lighting up this poor kid making his
15:44
debut. Red Sox rating 252 on the year,
15:47
131 home runs, 524 runs scored. Twins hitting two, 41122 homers,
15:54
445 runs scored. And G Alito, who the Red Sox
15:58
signed a couple years ago. When he was hurt or he was
16:00
healthy and then he got hurt and missed the entire year, I
16:03
thought it was kind of a bad signing.
16:05
But he's actually kind of done a little bit better this year.
16:07
He's three and one with a 3.3 OERA on the road this year, and
16:13
he's 10 and three or the Red Sox are 10 and three and his last 13
16:17
starts. So you've seen some pretty good,
16:19
pretty good performance by Boston when G Alito takes the
16:22
bump. So you had it all up here, guys.
16:24
We got a pick em to fave line, move on Boston, Good splits.
16:28
Let's fade a rookie starting pitcher.
16:30
We got the Red Sox at -118 at FanDuel again.
16:33
Shop around because some books are -120 -, 125 last night of
16:38
the night. Let's go out to sunny San Diego,
16:40
where the Padres are hosting the New York Mets. 9:40 PM Eastern
16:45
Time, first pitch. Now, the pods, who are 58 and
16:48
49, they won last night's series opener seven to six, came
16:51
through as a -130 home favorite. They got down big in that game
16:54
and came back. My old friend Xander Bogarts, I
16:57
don't know him personally, but used to play for the Sox.
16:59
He's finally turning around playing better for the pods
17:02
because that contract doesn't look great right now.
17:04
Anyway, tonight's rematch, the Mets were 62 and 45.
17:08
They're going with the lefty Sean Manaya one and one 2.19 ERA
17:12
this year. Padres, meanwhile, going at the
17:14
ready, Ryan Berger one and O 3.84 ERA.
17:17
So what is seen across the market here?
17:19
Well, this game opened with the Mets, a very short -115 Rd.
17:24
favorite San Diego around a -, 1 O 5 home, home dog.
17:28
And we've seen nothing but movement on the Metropolitans.
17:31
Mets have gotten steamed up -115 now up to -125 again.
17:35
Some shops now as high as -130 So pretty good one way movement
17:39
in favor of New York. We do have the Mets with some
17:42
pretty good splits in their favor at DraftKings. 64% bets
17:46
73% dollars at Circa. 57% bets over 90% of dollars on the Mets.
17:52
So I was like it when both DraftKings and Circa kind of
17:56
have that same low bets, higher dollar split.
17:58
Tells you smart money nationally and out in Vegas.
18:01
Kind of in the same agreement there.
18:04
Short Rd. favorites -130 or less off a loss, playing an opponent
18:07
off a win. Again, same system that just
18:09
matched with Boston. 60 and 4060 percent, 10% ROI this year.
18:13
We do have that non division favorite value.
18:16
Lack of familiarity benefiting the team is expected to win the
18:19
Mets. Also, hopefully their bats can
18:22
light up Burger tonight because they are hitting 135 or have hit
18:25
135 homers this year, scored 472 runs.
18:30
Podges have hit only 90 homers and scored 433 runs.
18:34
Manaya is a big part of the cap for me.
18:36
He was injured pretty much the entire year.
18:39
Just got activated earlier this month.
18:41
He's made three starts. He's only given up 1 earned run
18:44
in all three starts. So hopefully he pitches well
18:47
against San Diego and then also Berger 5.19 ERA at home versus
18:52
he's been better on the road. 1.96 CRA.
18:55
But we got this line moving further toward the Mets.
18:58
Good splits, good system match back in Manaya.
19:02
Hopefully he will pitch well for us tonight and see if the Mets
19:04
can get some revenge after they kind of blew a bigger lead last
19:08
night. But you got it all up, guys.
19:10
I got Mets -125 Shop around. Looks like Fanduel's the best
19:14
price -126 but we do have some books as high as -130 so
19:20
Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, see if we can get 2 out of 3 eke out a
19:24
winning night. Of course, you know that is the
19:26
goal. So that about does it for
19:28
episode 325 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
19:32
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of pod where we
19:34
wrap things up, put a bow and ribbon on the pod by saying a
19:37
few words and leave you with a couple places to go to links and
19:41
things to think about. But I first want to say thank
19:43
you. Thank you for listening to the
19:45
pod. Tuning in, grinding obviously
19:49
through the dog days of summer, but taking the time out of your
19:52
busy summers to tune in and listen to some sharp breakdowns
19:55
really means a lot to me. If you do want to help me
19:58
continue to grow the pod and if you haven't done it yet, would
20:01
you please consider giving this podcast a five star review on
20:04
Spotify or iTunes go a long way to helping us to continue to
20:07
grow the pod. If you want to leave a nice
20:09
comment or click the follow button on the podcast page or
20:13
recommend the pod to a friend or colleague or family member, I'd
20:17
very much appreciate that as well.
20:20
Next. If you enjoy the style of
20:21
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, again,
20:26
we're making sharp bets. Sometimes they don't come
20:27
through, but we're playing the long game.
20:29
We know that if we stick to the data-driven model long term,
20:32
we're going to grind out a profit as long as the, you know,
20:35
Red Sox bullpen doesn't blow for us anyway.
20:37
If you want to learn more about data-driven betting or you know
20:40
someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips, maybe
20:43
they're new to betting or maybe they bet a lot and just bet with
20:45
their heart and they keep losing and you know they don't know how
20:48
to change it. Well, less heart Morehead, how
20:51
about that? If you want to learn more about
20:54
data-driven betting, I would love for you guys to go to
20:56
Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
21:00
betting. That's the first book ever
21:01
wrote. It's everything I've learned in
21:03
the industry. How lines are set, how and why
21:04
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
21:07
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
21:10
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
21:13
included in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
21:15
As I mentioned to start the pod, my new book, the NFL Sharp
21:19
Betting Playbook comes out two weeks from today.
21:21
If you would like to pre-order a copy, you'll make me very, very
21:24
happy. And it's not just charity,
21:26
you're going to get something out of it too.
21:27
You're going to get all the latest insights that I have been
21:31
spending three years putting together pen to paper or I guess
21:35
typing on Microsoft Word. You know what the word count was
21:37
for this book? 200,000.
21:40
So if you want to write up 300 and I think it's 307 page book,
21:44
it's about 200,000 words. But anyway, pick up a copy of
21:47
the everything guide, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
21:49
Bring him to the sports book. I'll sign him for you.
21:51
I'll buy you the buy you a beer or ginger ale or maybe maybe a
21:55
couple shots after last night, if we can turn it around.
21:59
I got a cowboy up anyway. And again, first one's on me,
22:03
next one's on you. We'll sweat some games here at
22:06
the book tonight. Next.
22:07
Have you downloaded rhythm and juice reel yet?
22:09
Well, if you haven't, what are you waiting for?
22:11
Again? We're about to get to the busy
22:12
part of the year with football returning and you got to have a
22:16
couple apps to lean on help you cap some games.
22:18
The first one of course is Rhythm who does a great job of
22:21
powering this pod providing us AI backed models for game bets
22:24
and player props. And then we also have Juice
22:26
Reel. I'm going to pass the hat.
22:28
This pod is free, it cost you nothing.
22:30
If you'd like to contribute to the pod tip, your podcast host,
22:33
I'd love for you guys to do it in the form of signing up to get
22:36
the all systems go best bet picks on the Juice Reel app.
22:39
It cost $4.99 a week, 5 bucks to support the pod.
22:44
But really you're getting these plays earlier.
22:46
So if you'll beat some closing lines and get some better
22:48
numbers, which again, big in baseball, but wait until we get
22:51
to spread sports, you're going to want that plus 3 1/2 dog
22:53
hook, not the plus three. But you'll get the ASG pod best
22:57
bets exclusively and only on Juice Reel.
23:00
You'll also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
23:03
indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line
23:06
futures, all located inside of the Juice Reel app.
23:10
So download Juice Reel, download Rhythm, give a five star review
23:13
in the App Store. It'll be off and running with a
23:15
couple great data-driven apps. Next, do you have a live odds
23:19
page? Well, if you don't, you need one
23:22
because you got to know some basic things.
23:23
If you're a data-driven better. What are the games on tap for
23:26
today? Start times, live scoring, live
23:28
in game wagering odds. If you want to look at a a live
23:31
line opportunity, of course you got to know what the lines
23:34
opened at, how they've moved shop for the best price.
23:37
Identify steam when a team's getting hit, get pop up
23:40
notifications for injuries, final score, stuff like that.
23:43
Those are all key pieces of information that you need to be
23:47
a day driven better and you can get them all when you sign up
23:50
and get a membership with Odds Logic.
23:53
So give Odds Logic a shot with a 7 day free trial, 50% off your
23:56
first month just by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
24:03
Got to have the slash Josh 123 at the end to get that excuse
24:06
me, get that 7 day free trial and 50% off your first month of
24:09
service. So that about does it for
24:12
today's pod. Hopefully on a bounce back
24:14
Tuesday after I got to tell you a frustrating night last night
24:17
Sox blowing it G men losing again to the Pirates.
24:20
What are you doing? Yankees doing nothing against
24:22
Tampa Bay. You can tell him a little little
24:24
little fired up today. That's that's what baseball's
24:26
going to do to you. As they always say.
24:28
What is it whiskey and a revolver.
24:30
Well, we needed it last night. But anyway, of course I'll leave
24:33
you with two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata
24:36
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
24:38
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the
24:42
Encore in Boston, Plainridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield,
24:45
the Nash. Or of course, out in the desert
24:47
where the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
24:50
runners with Lois. True as possible is found at the
24:52
South Point. Or Sweat and sharp contrarian
24:55
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when they catch a
24:58
big ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me.
25:00
You're going to show me Yankees, Red Sox and Giants.
25:03
We're going to RIP them up and we're going to put them in the
25:05
recycle bin. If you have the option of the
25:07
trash and the recycle and they're right next to each
25:09
other, just put in the recycle. There's nothing wrong with that.
25:12
But anyway, hopefully we can get some winters here for tonight
25:16
and sweat out some some tickets that can hopefully be cashed for
25:19
tonight as well. But anyway, guys, O and three,
25:22
three and O2 and one one and two.
25:25
Hot, cold off a terrible night off a great night.
25:28
Feel like we're invincible because we're running hot or
25:30
feel like we can't hit the forest amongst the trees when
25:33
we're cold. Just got to stick with it
25:35
because sports betting, it's like a roller coaster.
25:37
There's ups and downs. You're going to see the highest,
25:39
the highest lowest, the lowest. But one thing you can't you
25:41
can't control the outcome. One thing you can't control is
25:44
just grinding the model and making smart decisions, which is
25:49
big part of the final chapter in my book.
25:52
So I won't I won't spoil it, but there's a couple kind of
25:55
anecdotes that always speak to me and anytime I have a bad
25:58
night or you know, kind of struggling here.
26:00
But anyway, guys, we got to stick to the model, stick to the
26:02
blueprint. If we do that, I know we're
26:04
going to be successful long term.
26:05
You know what it is by now against the public, with the
26:08
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
26:11
line value. If we can do that, we're going
26:13
to be successful betters. So have a great Tuesday night,
26:17
everyone. Hopefully the gambling gods give
26:19
us some revenge here for tonight.
26:21
But either either way, win, lose or draw, we'll be right back at
26:24
it tomorrow, grinding once again on a big Wednesday edition.
26:27
That'll be episode 326 of the All Systems Go sports Betting
26:31
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
26:34
great Tuesday night.