Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 220 - 2/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 220 - 2/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 220 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast, powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy hump day. That's right, it's a Wednesday.
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We're halfway through our work week.
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We're getting closer and closer to the weekend, closer and
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closer to Major League Baseball, March Madness, The snow starting
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to melt a little bit. It's been crazy.
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It's been icy. I can tell you, you probably are
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sick and tired of me complaining about the weather.
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But there's a story here in Boston where you know where you
0:55
go to like an Ace Hardware or Home Depot and you get the the
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ice melt, basically the salt that, you know, truck down on
1:01
the ice and it melts it. Well, there's like basically no
1:04
ice melt and people are freaking out.
1:06
And there's also an issue where, and make sure you don't do this,
1:09
those of you in warm climates, these are the things you don't
1:11
got to worry about. But there's also issues with
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people who basically, they have a ton of snow on the top of
1:17
their cars. And we've had snow, it's been
1:20
freezing, we had rain. It's basically ice.
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And people, instead of taking the time, and I have to do this
1:25
to my wife because she used to work from home with me and now
1:29
she goes into the office every day.
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But instead of, you know, taking the time to start your car 10
1:34
minutes early, scrape off the ice, you know, hit all the snow,
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get off the roof of the car. People are just just leaving.
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And what's happening is they're on the road, they're on the
1:42
highway, Ice is coming off the top of their roof.
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It's hitting people behind them, cracking windshields and causing
1:48
accidents and all kinds of issues.
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So I know you guys don't do that.
1:52
I know you make sure when you leave your driveway you're all
1:54
scraped off and you're you're the hood of your car and the
1:56
roof of your car is nice and clean.
1:58
So anyway, give me some color when you live in New England
2:01
because I'm used to this. Born and raised in
2:03
Massachusetts. I've been through a lot of bad
2:05
winters, but I don't know, as I get older, I'm like man, like
2:08
I'm ready for spring. I'm sick of this winter.
2:10
Anyway, with that being said, enough of me complaining about
2:13
the weather. Let's get into some sharp plays
2:16
for today. I have a three pack of sweats
2:18
for you guys in college basketball, including two very
2:21
short money lines. Money line that's a little bit
2:23
higher, but I'm going to try to protect myself.
2:26
One game in particular. That is one of the sharpest
2:28
games you're ever going to see. When I saw this bets play,
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basically, literally, not literally, but almost 90% of
2:34
bets on one side, the trendy dog, but we got an epic system
2:38
match on the home favorite. I got excited.
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I cut my finger when I put in this play in my app and I was
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bleeding all over my keyboard. Just kidding, I wasn't, but
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that's how sharp it was. So a three packing college
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hoops, going to try to go 2 and one.
2:50
And then also the theme of Major League Baseball and getting
2:53
ready for spring. I have another win total bet for
2:56
you. So I already played the Red Sox
2:58
over 85 1/2 wins. I like what they do with that
3:01
and Garrett Crochet and Bueller and of course Alex Bregman was
3:04
the cherry on top. That number is now about 86 1/2
3:07
across the market. So hopefully you got the 85 1/2,
3:10
but I have another team for you and I'm going to get a little
3:12
nitty gritty on you in terms of why I'm playing this team to go
3:16
over. And then it's not a Ken Palm for
3:18
baseball, but I have two websites that I'm going to lean
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on. You might know them, you might
3:22
not, but they have this team projected to go over this number
3:26
and buy a a decent margin. So I'm going to tell you what
3:29
that play is and I actually put that one in for today.
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So a three pack of college hoops, one Major League Baseball
3:35
win total. That's what we'll talk about on
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today's pod. Now looking back to our last
3:38
night, 2 and 1 + 0.23 units, quarter of a unit, I'll take it.
3:44
Positive winning night. We got our revenge with BYU
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after I got into a tweet beef with people told me you have the
3:50
unranked home favor shrink the point it's a coin flip.
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No, it's not. Yes, it lost with Baylor the
3:55
other night, but it came through Bigley and I mean Bigley with
3:58
BYU. One of those rare rocking chair
4:01
covers where it wasn't even close.
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BYU absolutely destroyed them. So I was great to see.
4:05
Also got Florida Gulf Coast. That was neck and neck and then
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Lob City, Dunk City, whatever you want to call him, pulled
4:10
away in the second-half. The frustrating one to keep us
4:13
from a sweep was Tennessee Martin.
4:16
That was maybe the most frustrating, disgusting game
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I've seen in quite a while because they just constantly
4:20
turned it over. And really what was really
4:23
pitiful is they could not hit free throws.
4:26
Like they at one point I think they missed like nine straight
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free throws in the game. They were 17 of 3417 of 34 from
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the free throw line. You lose by 11.
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You literally make, you know, 10 more of those and go 27 to 34.
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You know, it's basically a tied game.
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So that was frustrating with UT Martin.
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But either way, guys, you make 3 bets, you win 2, you have a
4:48
winning night. We'll take that every single
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time. So with that being said, also
4:53
just want to mention quickly, I'm getting a lot of great
4:55
feedback on you guys as someone's texting me, probably
4:58
the wife, who knows, she wants to know what we're doing for
5:00
dinner tonight. But either way, I did want to
5:05
mention that I'm getting a lot of great feedback on the Odds
5:07
Logic live odds software, which I just teamed up with Odds Logic
5:11
and I am now an affiliate. And again, if you're looking for
5:14
a live odds page, it's the Bible.
5:16
It's the heartbeat of a daily sports better having your finger
5:19
on the pulse of the betting market.
5:20
I tweeted out a quick video yesterday.
5:23
I'm also plugging in the description of the pod if you
5:26
want to sign up. But if you are looking for a
5:28
live odds page, this is the best, most cost effective
5:31
option. So feel free to reach out to me
5:33
if you have any questions about odds Logic or if you need that
5:36
referral link to get started. Again, 7 day free trial, see if
5:39
you like it. You can always tweet me or DM me
5:42
at Josh under score insights on Twitter and I'll get you.
5:45
I'll get your questions answered and get you lined up with odds
5:48
logic. So that being said, before we
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talk a MLB win total, we got some college hoops to get down
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on tonight. So once again, a three pack.
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Let's get right after it. 6:30 PM Eastern Time game, first play
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of the night for me. This is Nebraska at Penn State
6:04
now going into it. Nebraska 17 and 9 on the year
6:07
playing pretty well, though they won five of their last six, just
6:10
outlasted Northwestern 68 to 64. They're actually down in that
6:13
game. Came back in one, covered as a 1
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1/2 point Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, Penn State, I've bet
6:19
on them a couple times this year and they've really let me down.
6:22
They're now 500 team 13 and 13. It's kind of crazy.
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I was looking at their schedule. I think they started like 12:00
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and 1:00 or 12:00 and 2:00, and now they're like one in 10 or
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one in 12 in their last 1013, whatever it may be.
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But they have dropped seven straight and just fell to
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Washington, 75 to 73, lost outright as a 6 1/2 point home
6:41
favorite. So what have you seen across the
6:43
market here? Well, not a massive line move,
6:46
but all movement liability quietly on the Cornhuskers.
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I like Nebraska on the money line here.
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It's a relatively cheap money line price you can get around
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-115 -, 120, but basically it's been a kind of liability stay
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the same or move toward Nebraska.
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Nebraska open this game as a very short one point Rd.
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favorite and Nebraska -1 got bet up to -1 1/2, even got bet up to
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two. So it was pretty clear movement
7:11
toward Nebraska. Now, there has been some buyback
7:13
this afternoon, so Nebraska's back down to -1 or -1 1/2, but a
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lot of the minus ones are really still juiced up toward the
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Cornhuskers. So -1 -, 115.
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And again, some books even 1 1/2.
7:27
So always mention this. But like the open occur in
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Nebraska open -1 they're still -1 you might say, oh, nothing's
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changed. But no, at times, it really went
7:34
up toward the Cornhuskers and it's still juiced up toward the
7:38
Cornhuskers. So if you look at DraftKings,
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decent bet split here, around 60% of bets, but nearly 70% of
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money on the spread is on the Cornhuskers.
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Now, Ken Palm does have Nebraska winning, but only by one point.
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So you guys know the drill. Relatively cheap money line
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price here. That's where I'm going.
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Give me Cornhuskers money line. Let's Shuck some corn here
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tonight. But that's why I'm going money
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line again -115 -, 120. I'd really like the bet split at
8:04
Circa, in particular on the money line out in Vegas, at the
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sharpest book out in Vegas, 67% of money line bets, 9898, a ton
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of money here, 98% of dollars on Nebraska.
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So it tells me you've got a lot of smart money here going with
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the Cornhuskers to win the game. Now, a couple advantages here in
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Nebraska, better offensive efficiency.
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They ranked 57th in the country versus 71st for Penn State.
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So slightly better, but also much better defensive
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efficiency. They ranked 36th in the country.
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You'll get Penn State, they ranked 98th.
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Free throw shooting, nothing huge but slight advantage for
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the Cornhuskers, 76% versus 75% and Nebraska takes better care
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of the ball. They rank 132nd in the country
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and turnover percentage. Penn State ranks 168th.
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Doesn't hurt the Penn State again, they've really struggled
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here and they are just three and 12 in conference play.
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So they have not done well in these conference games.
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Last, last little angle here, cherry on top, Ken Palms got
9:03
them by one. Rhythm has Nebraska -1.1.
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So it's not a huge steam move, but liabilities been toward
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Nebraska. Ken Palms got him winning by 1.
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Rhythms got him winning by one. We got pretty good bet splits
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here. Couple couple good stat
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advantages. I'm going to go in Nebraska to
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hopefully start our night off with a win again.
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It's an early game, 6:30 PM Eastern Time.
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Let's go Cornhuskers on the money line.
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You can get around -115 -. 120 next one for you.
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The banger of the night, the game that I cannot wait to sweat
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the game that I'm already seeing on Twitter.
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This line makes no sense What's going on?
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The odds makers got it wrong. I cannot wait to sweat this
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game. Am I nervous yes I am but I love
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this angle and it's an auto bet for me.
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I'm talking about the most heavily bet game of the night,
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9:00 Eastern Time. Alabama and Missouri now going
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into it. Alabama 21 and 4 ranked 4th in
10:00
the country. They just saw their seven game
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win streak however come to an end.
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They lost to Auburn 94 to 85. They were a 2 point home
10:06
favorite in that game and lost outright.
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Meanwhile, Mizzou 19 and 6 ranked 15th in the country.
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They've won two straight and they just held off Georgia 87 to
10:16
74 covering as a 2 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, this game opened at basically a pick em.
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I saw a couple shops actually open Alabama as high as a 1 1/2
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point Rd. favorite and the public cannot believe this is a
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coin flip game. Alabama is the better team,
10:35
better ranking their awful loss to Auburn's.
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That means that they have to come out fired up tonight and
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win this game. There's no way gamblers fallacy.
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There's no way that Bama can lose two in a row.
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However, even though at DraftKings 85% of spread bets,
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this is about as lopsided as it gets. 85% of spread bets are on
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Alabama. But what has happened in the
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betting market? The line is moved not toward the
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85% Bama side, toward the 15% Missouri side.
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Missouri has gone from pick em basically or even getting a
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pointer point and a half now to Missouri -1 1/2.
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Even some books are juiced up. Missouri -1 1/2 -, 115.
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I even see a two out there. So this is the ultimate wiseguy
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play literally at not literally cuz that's 100%, but pretty much
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everybody in their mother, every drunk guy at the bar is saying
11:25
Pamela's going to kill him. The odds makers got this one
11:28
wrong, yet everyone's playing Bama Lions going to Missouri, so
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this is just really just a game. I cannot wait to sweat tonight
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again. I'm nervous and it's good to be
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nervous going into a bet. I actually had a baseball coach
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in high school who I loved and he would always tell us, you
11:43
know, if you're nervous before a game or you have anxiety or, you
11:47
know, you got the butterflies, that's always a good thing.
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It means that you care. It means that you're being
11:51
realistic with yourself. It means you're not cocky or
11:54
arrogant. So I think going into every bet,
11:56
yeah, you're probably, you know, your bias is more confident in a
11:59
bet than others, but I think it's a good sign just to be be
12:03
realistic and it's OK to be nervous going into a bet.
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I'm all I'm nervous going into every bet that I make because I
12:08
know how hard betting is. But anyway, classic sharp
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reverse line movement. This is the top contrarian play.
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Then I even if you take away the line movement toward Missouri,
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this is just an epic contrarian play most heavily back game nine
12:20
o'clock 85% Bama give me the 15% side with Missouri.
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If you look at circa good bets, what here it's a little little
12:28
bit more even 43% of bets on Missouri, but 60% of dollars on
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Missouri. Now Ken Palm does have Mizzou
12:34
winning by one point. So as a as a result, of course,
12:38
I'm going money line here. I got Mizzou a little bit
12:41
earlier today at -114 I think they're a little bit higher
12:43
closer like -120 right now. But I like the money line split.
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Mizzou is getting 67% of money line bets, 90% of money line
12:52
dollars. So it tells me that the pros are
12:54
again, banking on the Tigers to win this game, mitigating some
12:58
risk. You'd hate to see Mizzou win by
13:00
1 and you lay a 1 1/2 or two and you lose.
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So that's a money line play for me, of course.
13:04
But Mizzou has the better three-point shooting, 37% versus
13:08
34%. They take better care of the
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ball, 46th in the country in turnovers versus 182 for
13:14
Alabama. They're they actually ranked
13:16
28th in the country at forcing turnovers.
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And Bama really doesn't turn you over.
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They ranked 354 in the country. Tigers.
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Meanwhile, we're going to really bank on their defense to
13:25
hopefully contain Alabama with Sears and you know, all the good
13:30
shooters they have, but they're only giving up 69 points a game.
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Crimson Tide are giving up 79 points a game.
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Mizzou home cooking place should be rocking here tonight.
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The question is do they storm the court if they win even
13:42
though technically their favorite?
13:43
I always love seeing that because people on Twitter go
13:45
well they're favored so they can't storm the courts.
13:47
Like still you're for all tons of purposes you feel like an
13:50
underdog anyway. Mizzou 16 and one at home this
13:53
year. I got another betting system
13:55
match for you. When 2 ranked teams play each
13:57
other, take the home favorite since 2021.
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That system is 166 and 59. Straight up 74 percent, 8% ROI.
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Little cherry on top, our friends at Rhythm have Mizzou
14:09
-1.2. So Ken Palms got him by 1,
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Rhythms got him by 1.2. Everybody's playing Alabama be
14:17
at lines going to Mizzou. Let's fade this trendy dog.
14:20
We got to go Missouri here guys. This is in this an auto bet
14:23
sharp play for me that I'll play every single time.
14:25
And let's let's hope that Mizzou comes to play and gets a win for
14:28
us because that would be an epic hit, especially at a pretty
14:31
cheap money line price. Last bite of the night, New
14:34
Mexico and Boise State 10:00 game.
14:37
So if you're like me on the East Coast again, we're staying up
14:40
late tonight. But New Mexico comes in 22 and 4
14:43
on the year. They've won eight straight, just
14:45
beat Utah State 82 to 79. Didn't cover though as a four
14:48
and a half point home favorite. Meanwhile, Boise 17 and 8 on the
14:51
year, but they just had their four-game win streak come to an
14:54
end. They lost to the Aztec.
14:55
San Diego State 64 to 47 did not cover as a 1 1/2 point Rd. dog.
15:01
So what I've seen across the market here, well, this game
15:03
open. Boise listed as a short 2 1/2
15:06
point home favorite, and boy have they gotten steamed.
15:10
Boise State open -2 1/2. They're now all the way up to -4
15:14
1/2. Some shops even juiced up like
15:16
they might be going to five. And why is this line movement
15:19
notable? Not only is a 2 point line move
15:21
pretty huge, but it's the fact that this is basically a 5050
15:25
bet split like New Mexico. Again, they're 22 and 4.
15:27
Good record. They're getting points, but yet
15:29
Boise's at home public is right down the middle 5050 And what do
15:33
we always talk about? 5050 line moves when the tickets
15:36
are right down the middle. Theoretically, in a vacuum, the
15:38
line shouldn't move at all because you would assume
15:41
balanced action. No need for the odds makers to
15:43
adjust the price. However, 5050 and yet you do see
15:46
the line move. I like to go with that line
15:48
move. It tells me that even though the
15:49
public is undecided, wise guys have taken a position 'cause
15:53
that line to to get adjusted. You'll get DraftKings.
15:56
To be technical about it, Boise State's only getting 47% of
16:00
spread bets, but 89% of spread dollars.
16:04
Boise at Circa, 50% of spread bets, 98% of spread dollars.
16:08
I always like it when both DraftKings and Circa have a
16:11
similar really sharp split. Like that.
16:13
Tells me that, again, regardless of the book, Sharps are kind of
16:16
thinking the same thing now. Ken Palm has Boise winning by
16:19
two as a result. This is a money line play for
16:23
me. Now I fully admit this is about
16:24
as high as I'm willing to go with the money line.
16:27
I got Boise State at ESPN bet at -190 they're upwards of 200 Now.
16:32
I would do do your best to shop around and find anything below
16:35
-200 if you can. Because of course you risk a
16:38
unit -200 to get a half unit back.
16:41
So you want to get anything a little bit more than 1/2 unit
16:43
because it can help you to hopefully have a winning night
16:45
if you have another winning play.
16:48
But anyway, the reason why even though it's a big price, I
16:51
really like to split at circa 25% money line bets over 50%
16:55
money line dollars. Boise has the better offensive
16:58
efficiency, 49 versus 72, better field goal percentage, 53%
17:03
versus 52%. And here's one that was a big
17:06
discrepancy. Boise State shoots 77% from the
17:10
free throw line, only 68% for New Mexico.
17:14
Now if you want to lay the four and half and save the Jews, dear
17:16
God, I hope they win by 5 or more.
17:18
Now Rhythm does have Boise minus 3.6, so that's a good sign that
17:22
Rhythm is a little more bullish on Boise.
17:24
But I'm going to go money line here again.
17:26
I played it earlier today -190 again, shop around, try to find
17:31
anything sub 200 if you can. So Nebraska, Mizzou, Boise
17:36
State, 3 money lines. Let's try to go 2 and one and
17:39
eke out a winning night now because it's freezing cold and I
17:43
need to talk baseball just to keep my sanity.
17:45
All right. Because again, it's been a been
17:47
a rough long winter in New England, which is kind of
17:50
surprising because the last couple winters have been really
17:52
not that bad. But anyway, some Major League
17:55
Baseball to talk about. I want to talk about a win total
17:58
with you guys. I'm already holding, as I
18:00
mentioned, the Red Sox over 85 1/2 wins with now some books at
18:05
86 1/2. But I was stumbling on a couple
18:08
things and really my play when I when I play win totals is, and I
18:14
haven't gotten this yet, to be honest with you, but Bet MGM, my
18:16
buddy John Ewing, he'll give me the bets in dollars that have
18:19
really come in here across the market or specifically Bet MGM.
18:23
So probably get that toward the tail end of spring training.
18:26
But also I like to look at, you know, the most trusted sources
18:30
in terms of win, win totals and just kind of see where they're
18:33
at compared to the betting market.
18:35
So I stumbled upon the Texas Rangers.
18:39
Now, the Texas Rangers last year went 78 and 84, so they won 78
18:45
games. Now, across the betting market,
18:48
their win total is 85 1/2. So they won 78 last year.
18:53
Win total is 85 1/2. You could say, hey, even if they
18:55
get a little bit better, let's go under 85 1/2, right?
18:59
No, for whatever reason, the analytics really like the Texas
19:02
Rangers this year. And I'll give you a couple
19:03
reasons why I think they might like the Rangers.
19:06
But the two sources that I was looking at, one is Pakoda.
19:11
If you just Google PECOTA Pakoda, it's considered or
19:16
basically the most respected, I would say projected win total
19:19
sabermetrics and baseball has just gotten ridiculous with
19:22
their weighted runs created WRZ plus like I don't even even I
19:26
can't keep up with it. You know what really grinds my
19:28
gears? Peter Griffin, you don't really
19:30
grinds my gears that when I tune into a baseball game, can you
19:34
just give me batting average, home runs and RBS?
19:38
You know, when the guy comes up to the plate, batting average,
19:41
home runs, RBS, you can give me OPS, slugging, I'll even take
19:44
those. But now you look at, you know,
19:46
baseball games, the guy comes up the plate, they put up numbers
19:49
and I don't know if that's good or bad.
19:50
Like whatever happened to batting average home runs?
19:52
RB is anyway, that's just the I'm getting old.
19:55
I'm 37 years old at this point. I could tell you Manny Ramirez
19:59
would come up. He's hitting 322 with 42 homers
20:02
and 120 RB is OK. I know he's a good hitter
20:06
anyway. I can't even understand a lot of
20:08
this stuff. It's gotten so crazy.
20:10
But I do know having, you know, working in the betting world and
20:14
working with people who who really dig into these stats and
20:17
I'm not not hating on them. I just think they've gotten
20:19
ridiculous to understand. But they really love Pakoda.
20:24
So Pakoda win totals. They give you the projected
20:28
outcomes of all the of all the teams.
20:30
And then I also stumbled upon my buddy Derek Carty.
20:35
Derek Cardi does a great job. He sometimes is at Visen with
20:40
me, and I've crossed paths with him before.
20:42
We follow each other on Twitter. But I noticed that he got an
20:45
award for like, one of the best like formulas or, you know,
20:50
power ratings. I don't even know what he got,
20:51
but he's very highly respected. And he has a wind total
20:54
projection called Bat X. So I just said, hey, Pakoda is
21:00
really respected. Derek Cardi, I know he does a
21:02
great job and his Bat X has gotten some awards.
21:05
Let's look at what Pakoda has for everyone's win total, Bat X
21:09
has for everyone's win total, and then what the betting market
21:11
has. And I stumbled upon the Rangers.
21:14
So I mentioned to you that they won 78 games last year.
21:17
Their win total is 85 1/2. Drum roll please.
21:23
Pakoda, believe it or not, has the Rangers winning 90.5 games.
21:28
That's surprising, but hey, the, the, the nerds really seem to
21:33
like the Rangers. Then Derek Cardi's Bat X 88.4
21:39
predicted wins. So Pakoda's got, we can even
21:42
round these up and down. Pakoda's got 91 wins.
21:45
Bat X has 88 wins. The betting market is 85.5.
21:50
So if they just can get us 86 wins, we cash this one.
21:55
You have a pretty decent, you know, basically 3-4 win cushion.
22:01
And let me give you some other stat reasons why maybe the
22:04
Rangers are going to be good this year or can they just get
22:06
us 86 wins? That's all we care about.
22:09
A healthy Jake degrom. Again, I know it's, you know,
22:12
banging your head against the wall definition of insanity to
22:14
expect the Grom to be healthy. He's always hurt.
22:16
I totally get it. But I was reading about how he's
22:19
finally feeling better. He's feeling better than he has
22:21
in years. I guess his bullpens and spring
22:23
training are going well. So healthy Jacob degrom, you're
22:26
probably going to be better than you were last year.
22:29
Resigned Nathan Ivaldi. There's some other guys,
22:32
Bradford Gray, couple of these other pitchers who could be
22:35
decent. And then I really like what they
22:38
did in terms of free agency because basically they made some
22:42
trades too, but they added two players in particular who are
22:47
really going to lengthen their lineup. 1 is Jake Berger.
22:51
This guy's a big dude and he's basically like a softball
22:54
hitter, but he routinely hits you 30 home runs a year.
22:57
He had 29 last year. He was on.
23:00
I want to say what was it, the Marlins?
23:02
But yeah, Jake Berger to that lineup to play first.
23:05
And they also brought in Jock Peterson to DH.
23:08
And Jock Peterson can always get you 25 home runs.
23:11
So you just brought in a lot of thump to that batting order.
23:15
Josh Young. Josh Jung.
23:17
I think it's Young, though, pronounced.
23:19
He was almost rookie of the year a couple years ago.
23:21
He was hurt all most of last year.
23:23
He's healthy. Another reason to like the
23:26
Rangers I was reading is like they had a lot of injuries last
23:29
year where again, if they're healthy, you thought you'd think
23:32
they'd be, you know, more than 78 wins.
23:35
Obviously, Simeon and Seeger are important to that.
23:38
But you're kind of banking on maybe some good health, better
23:40
health this year. And you also look at small
23:44
thing, but Jonah Heim is their starting catcher.
23:47
They added Kyle Higashioka. I would sweat a lot of Padres
23:51
games late night last year, and he was a pretty decent catcher.
23:54
I think he like seventeen home runs.
23:56
So this is a lineup that looks pretty solid.
24:00
I like to go to Roto Champ. They do a lot of good
24:03
projections for, you know, line UPS, rotations, bullpen, bench,
24:06
whatever. Let me give you the Texas
24:08
Rangers starting lineup. Pretty much every guy's
24:11
projected at 20 homers or more. Marcus Simeon, lead off hitting
24:14
second or sorry, lead off playing second base.
24:17
Corey Seeger hitting second, playing short.
24:20
Wyatt Lankford, he was in Rookie of the Year conversation hitting
24:22
third playing the outfield. Jock Peterson hitting cleanup
24:26
DH. Adolas Garcia, 5th outfield.
24:30
Josh Young, third base, hitting 6th.
24:32
Evan Carter, outfield hitting 7th.
24:34
Jake Berger, first base, hitting eighth.
24:36
Jonah Heim, catcher, hitting 9th.
24:39
That's a pretty deep lineup with a lot of guys and can hit a lot
24:43
of homers, so maybe they slug their way to a lot of wins.
24:46
Maybe degrom stays healthy. I know they picked up web in the
24:50
bullpen as well, but if you look at the lineup like, OK, yeah,
24:54
they're better. But it really wasn't until I saw
24:56
the Pakoda 90.5 wins in the bad X 88.4 wins that really sold me
25:03
and I and to me, if you're betting win tools and baseball,
25:05
if you have some sources that you respect, you need at least a
25:08
probably two win cushion. And again, this is a, you know,
25:12
3-4 win cushion. Now where do you place this bet
25:16
shop for the best line? Give a shout out to Juice Real,
25:18
who does a great job at automatically giving you the
25:21
best futures price at every sports book.
25:25
DraftKings is 85 1/2 - 110 both sides.
25:28
ESPN is 85 1/2 - 110 both sides. Caesar's is at 86 bed.
25:34
MGM is over 85 1/2 at minus one O 5, but FanDuel has 85 1/2 / +
25:42
100. So you're risk a unit.
25:44
You're going to get a unit. So I jumped on that reduced
25:47
juice, even juice basically. And I played the Texas Rangers
25:51
over 85 1/2 wins plus 100 at FanDuel.
25:56
So let's go Rangers again. 78 wins last year, 85 1/2 this
26:00
year. Pakodas got 90.5 bad X is 88.4.
26:04
So let's hope that they can get 86 wins in cash this bet.
26:09
So that about does it for episode 220 of the ASG Pod
26:12
Powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
26:14
again where we wrap things up. I start first by saying thank
26:17
you. Thank you for taking the time
26:18
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
26:21
the virtual bar and space out and listen to some hopefully
26:25
sharp betting breakdowns that can hopefully cash by the end of
26:28
the night. If you do enjoy the pod, please
26:30
could you give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
26:33
That would mean a lot to me. If you want to click the follow
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button that we get alerted as soon as it drops each day, that
26:38
would be great. If you want to recommend it to a
26:39
friend, word of mouth is always the best as well.
26:43
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown and
26:46
you want to support the pod and you want to learn more about
26:48
data-driven betting, well, if you haven't yet, you got to buy
26:50
my first book. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
26:53
everything guide to sports betting.
26:55
But now I'm very proud enough to say that I've written a second
26:59
book. It comes out August 12th.
27:01
It's called the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
27:04
So go to Amazon.com, make my day and have a pre-order go go go
27:10
type in the NFL sharp betting play.
27:12
Look, there should be an option to pre-order the book.
27:14
That way it gets delivered as soon as it comes out in August
27:17
and the more pre sales the better.
27:19
And I seriously am so happy with you guys sending me screenshots
27:22
of your pre-orders. That means the world to me.
27:24
So let's get those pre-orders continue to roll here.
27:27
Next, if you haven't done it yet, download rhythm.
27:29
Download Juice Reel my two favorite sports betting apps
27:32
Rhythm for their AI back models and predictions, best bets and
27:35
player props. Thank you all for tuning in to
27:37
yesterday's Tuesday live stream on Twitter 4:00 every Tuesday
27:42
and then of course juice reel where you can follow the all
27:44
systems go best bet picks. I tweet them out each day at
27:48
Josh under score insights probably around 5-6 PM at night
27:52
and you can always just go to juice reel social tab find
27:55
juicers click type in ASG under score podcast that's $4.99 a
28:01
week. Consider a tip jar.
28:02
You like the pod go play go sign up to get the best bets.
28:07
You also get the sharp mush indicators, arbitrage arbitrage
28:10
system matches, as well as shopping for the best line
28:13
features. Now of course, I'm going to have
28:15
to add it to my spiel. I would love for you guys if you
28:18
need a live odds page to try out odds logic tweeting it from my
28:22
account. I'm also putting it in the bio
28:24
description of the pod. If you have any questions or
28:26
need the referral link, please, you got to use this link so they
28:30
know I'm sending action their way.
28:31
But I'd love for you guys to give Odds Logic a try.
28:34
I think it's the best and cheapest option when it comes to
28:37
having a live odds page, which you got to have if you're
28:39
betting sports on a daily basis. But that about does it for a big
28:42
Wednesday. As always, guys, I'll leave you
28:44
with a couple things. One, whether I see you at the
28:46
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
28:49
Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
28:52
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
28:55
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
28:57
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
29:00
get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
29:02
runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
29:05
point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
29:08
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
29:10
Circa, you're going to walk up to me and you're going to show
29:12
me a Florida Gulf Coast ticket. But more more importantly,
29:16
chef's kiss, a beautiful BYU Cougars.
29:20
We got to sweat games. We don't have to sweat that one.
29:22
It's always nice when you get a blowout win.
29:24
So shout out to BYU. The unranked home favors ranked
29:27
opponents system match. But as always, guys, first one's
29:31
on me, next one's on you. I'll post about the book.
29:33
So it's some sharp plays together as always, my parting
29:35
words, two and one, one and 2-3 and OO and three.
29:39
We continue to grind no matter the previous night, sticking to
29:42
the model, sticking the blueprint.
29:43
If we can find games that fit our model bet games with our
29:45
head and not our heart, against the public, with the house, with
29:48
the pros flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line
29:51
value. If we can do that, and I'm
29:53
confident that we can, then we're going to be successful
29:55
sports betters long term. So have a great Wednesday night,
29:58
everybody. We'll be right back at it
30:00
tomorrow for a big Thirsty Thursday, and that'll be episode
30:03
221 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
30:08
Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
30:10
great night.