Latest / The Curve / RTC38: Short-term investing trends: what are they and how to spot them

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RTC38: Short-term investing trends: what are they and how to spot them · The Curve

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Curve Podcast, a conversation for women who want to learn more about money,
• 0:06
  their money for the future they want to have. We're all busy in the pursuit for financial
• 0:11
  confidence and increasing your wealth should be a simple one. This podcast is for women to
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  learn about investing in a non-scary or intimidating way. With short episodes, you'll have time to
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  learn, digest and understand everything to do with the world of investing. So thank you for being
• 0:28
  here and for listening. Because together we really can raise the curve.
• 0:36
  Welcome to the studio, the studio, the study that's converted into a studio. It's very
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  professional. If only you could see there behind the scenes, all the chords,
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  yeah. I know, all our videos look quite chic, thank you so much.
• 0:51
  The video is a job, the video is a job. The behind the scenes is not as chic. We've got a dog on the
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  floor showing a dog toy, a dental treat, a dental treat. But we've got you in studio today. So
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  Steph and just for context for people listening, Steph and Vick used to work together at Milford.
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  Yep, but yeah. And we'll all be working together.
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  So I am an investment analyst in the global equities team at Milford. And so essentially what I
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  do is I understand research and value global companies. And I'm trying to really find
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  the best investment opportunities to put clients money into. So that's what I spend all my days
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  doing. That's amazing. It's such a good, easy explanation. Yeah. And it's super interesting as well.
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  You love your job? Yeah, I mean, I get to look at the most interesting, exciting companies in
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  the world. And spend time just understanding them. So it's pretty cool. So funny like your,
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  your version of what is interesting, like because I remember when Vick first started talking about
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  her job, she was like, it's amazing. I get to look at all of these companies. And I was like,
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  so I was like, boring, amazing. But I think it was like, someone said to me, when you're an analyst
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  or a portfolio manager, you're kind of your own boss because you get to be like, hey, that's a
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  cool company. I want to look and research that, hey, that's cool. I want to, you know, you kind of
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  pick and choose what interests you. You're not kind of being told, well, some people do.
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  Like in bigger teams, you're kind of told you are only focusing on healthcare companies. You're
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  only focusing on media. But I think in like Booteck funds management companies, you can kind of
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  like, oh, that's interesting. And kind of yeah. And if you see something, you can just be like,
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  hey, I think we should look at Luda Lemon or, hey, I've been noticing a lot of influencer activity
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  with Estay Luda. Let's look at that. So you can sort of see what interests you and then kind of
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  target that to an investment. So being on global equities means that you're looking at a specific
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  industry or are you looking at all companies. So when I started, Milford was a little bit
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  smaller. So I was called a generalist, which meant I could look at any company in any country,
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  in any sector, any size. Is that overwhelming in terms of options?
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  Yes. And that's where these kind of themes and trends come in. So I think it's really hard.
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  If you just say to someone, find a company to invest in because I have no idea where to even look.
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  So then when you start thinking about themes and trends, you can say, this is what the world's
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  going to look like in 10 or 15 years, what companies might benefit from that. And so that's kind of
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  how we approached it. Whereas now that Milford's grown, I tend to look at technology and consumer
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  companies. So I'm a little bit more focused now than I was sort of six years ago.
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  Because there's so many publicly listed companies. It's like so overwhelming. And I remember my
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  previous role when I was doing global equities, like doing small and large cap. It was literally like
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  you, it was so overwhelming. I remember sitting there some days and I was like, I don't even know where
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  to start. I know. You can look at companies in like South Korea. You can look at companies in Mexico.
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  You can look at companies in Brazil. And it's just like, oh my gosh. And then you've got the
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  language barrier, the time difference that all these things, it's just you have to narrow down your
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  what we call it, and best of all universe. Otherwise, it's just you end up doing kind of nothing.
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  You just read and read and read and read and read and read. Where do I go from here?
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  It's kind of like when you're super busy and you've got your head in a million places,
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  then you just get nothing done. It's too overwhelming. Like you need focus. And so today in this
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  episode, we're actually I think going to split into two of that's okay with you because what we'd
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  love to do is talk about sort of short term trends and then also long term trends in another
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  episode. Because I don't know a whole lot about this but that talks a lot in terms of trends and
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  themes and what that means for investors and how to spot them and then find good investments,
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  etc. So I guess firstly, what would you like to start with? Do you want to do short term or
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  long term and what's even the difference? I think short term is a good way to start because
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  that's kind of what you see happening on the ground day to day and then long term is sort of
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  thinking what's the world going to look like in 10, 15, 20 years. If you can align the two,
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  that's ideal. So if you can find a company that's benefiting from a trend in the short term
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  and has been benefiting from something that might play out over 10, 15 years,
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  that's kind of like the sweet spot. But I think it's worth starting with the short term,
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  the short term trends. I'm so excited for some investment ideas. Are you actually thinking that
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  you would be learning things that you don't already know? Yeah, because everyone spots different
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  trends. Yeah. I feel like you'd know a lot of a lot of what we're going to talk about. Yeah,
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  probably. It's rating myself. Yeah, probably. I know all the short term trends.
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  But like in your mind, you think like, oh, he he, I might come up with some investment ideas.
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  No, I'm going, he he, I'm just going to leverage off Steve's brain. Yeah.
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  Sharing is caring. I think we should get Steve Paranol to talk about short and long trends and
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  set relationships or still your ideas. Meanwhile, just like updating my portfolio.
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  Yeah. Love it. Amazing. So how many short term trends are there? Is there a million?
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  I mean, I think a million might be pushing it, but there are a lot. And so short term trends,
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  I think, have are driven by economic cycles. So often you'll see economic data come out and it
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  might be inflation, it might be interest rates, it might be unemployment stats. And those are
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  things that kind of go in cycles. So they would be more short term, or it could be like a shock,
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  like the pandemic is a really good example of short term, even though it's kind of dragged out
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  for multiple years. Multiple years. Yeah. What a short term trend in COVID be toilet paper
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  shortage? Or is that a terrible one? That is, yeah, that's definitely a short term trend.
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  There would be a mini trend. Oh, okay. So not worth investing in like,
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  maybe like hand sanitizer. Okay. It's probably a better. Because some of those trends turn into
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  more structural trends. So now, like, for example, hand sanitizer, everyone wanted it during the
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  pandemic, but now there's just a heightened focus on like staying safe and it's kind of like with
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  the cyclical and structural growth that we've talked about before. How cyclical is like more
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  short term in nature and more cyclical or follow the cycle? So for example, inflation is a short term
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  trend right now, like everyone's talking about inflation, we're seeing it come through, but
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  is it still going to be this level of inflation next year? Probably not. So it's more short term,
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  whereas if you think about something like the shift to digitalization and the growth in data,
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  like that's something that's taking place over multi-multi years. Some examples might help.
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  Yeah, I think it's more like multi-generational versus a few years. And then there's no hard or fast
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  rule short term is, short term is less than five, long term is greater than five or anything.
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  It's kind of, I think it depends on what drives it as well. So for a long term trend,
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  it's something that might be driven by demographics or shift in consumer behavior, social trends,
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  cultural trends, regulation, technology, all of those things, whereas short term trends
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  are sort of more just driven by economic data and the natural cycle that a business goes through
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  or that an economy goes through. I think we're going to need some examples,
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  I think that we're trying to understand. I get the idea of short term in long term,
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  but I think for me, I'm like, how would I know if a trend is going to die?
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  If you think about Zoom and COVID, like massive boost in usage by everyone and we were part of that,
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  and then Zoom's share price skyrocketed and then came crashing back down because that trend didn't
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  last. Didn't see, I would have said Zoom was a trend because I'm still using it.
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  Yeah, but you're not probably using it as much as you would because everyone's going back to
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  face-to-face meetings and doing that kind of stuff. Plus markets are like look forward.
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  So people are thinking, okay, what's going to happen next year and the year after?
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  Less and less people are going to use Zoom because you get Zoom fatigue and all that kind of stuff,
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  so. And there's more competition. So like Microsoft Teams, for example, we use that at
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  Milford Microsoft Teams, so Zoom was kind of the first on the scene really benefited from the
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  pandemic. So the share price was up, I think was like 220 percent from March to December in 2020,
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  and now it's back to where it was. So it's given all of that back because people realize
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  there's more competition, face-to-face meetings are going to take place again,
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  and Zoom's just not going to be as critical as it was during a pandemic.
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  How funny was it that other company with their sticker, their stock ticker was Zoom,
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  and then Zoom actual Zoom stock ticker was like ZDM or something, and then this little company
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  with the stock ticker Zoom, like saw this massive increase in its share price too, because everyone
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  was buying the wrong stock. So always check your ticker. Yeah.
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  I'm going to find it to check, I don't know. Always tick your ticker.
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  I had so many questions, so short-term trends. How do you know? So for example, Zoom, right?
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  It's Skyrocketed. If I'd seen that, and I thought, oh my god, everyone's using Zoom every five
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  seconds of the day, I'm going to invest in it, and I had, and then the share price had gone up
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  to 100%. How are you meant to know when that trend is potentially going to
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  is peaked or to take your money out? Is that the whole timing, the market that you don't bother with?
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  Yeah, that's a really good point, because often you might see these trends happening,
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  but chance say, you're not going to be the first one who's seen it, and so you might go,
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  you know what, Zoom, that's a great idea, and you look at the share price and it's up 150%.
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  And if you bought it then, there is the risk that you then lose out, because you have to be
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  following every little piece of information to know when the right time is to buy it, and then
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  when the right time is to sell it. So I think timing the market is just incredibly hard, even for
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  the best investors in the world. So I prefer time in the market, you know, just the long-term kind
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  of trends. So as much as, yeah, short-term trends are important and do drive markets, I think,
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  to plan them can be quite risky. There's much more focus on being in and out at the right time,
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  and there is no hard-of-fast reward when to sell is, it's probably more, you just be like,
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  okay, I've made 50% oh, sell now, it's not, yeah, because, and it's also, if it's like Zoom,
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  where it goes up so quickly, it can come down so quickly as well. Yeah, and like, for example,
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  so Peloton, so this is a company that does all the, like, exercise banks and kind of programs.
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  It was in six in the city. It's what big died on. I wonder what they did to the share price.
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  Like, the share price went down, I don't remember how much, but it does. On the six in the
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  second, yeah, after that six, and they had to come out and make a statement and say, you know,
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  it wasn't, it was because of his heart disease, not because of using the Peloton.
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  All that is hilarious. It's not something you want your company to be caught up at.
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  I guess it's like, you know, when Corona first, for him, the thing it was called Corona,
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  imagine Corona bear, they would have been like, can you not? Yeah, I know.
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  Terrible. But Peloton was up 600% from March to December in 2020,
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  and now it's come all the way back and it's 60% below where it was before the pandemic.
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  So you might have jumped onto that trend at the wrong time at the top, and now you've come
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  all the way back down, not just to where it was, but 60% below that. So you want to be really
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  careful with these sorts of things. What are some other interesting short-term trends?
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  So if we stick with the pandemic, one that hasn't reversed or a couple that haven't reversed,
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  so I think DIY was really interesting because all of a sudden we were all at home,
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  we were stuck and locked down. You've got these DIY things around the house that you had been
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  meaning to do for the last year, never got a chance to do it. And all of a sudden you're like, you
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  know what, I'm going to paint that room this weekend. That's what I'm going to do with my spare time.
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  Exactly. Put up shelves, build a deck, like all of that kind of thing. And so companies like Home Depot
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  and Lowe's, which are sort of like the bunnings and might attend in the US.
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  They're the listed. Yeah, they benefited. And there's a bit more of a structural trend there
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  because housing has been doing really well, and you've got millennials starting to buy homes.
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  Do you remember when I organized the spice straw?
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  It was a lot of time. It was a lot of time down activity.
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  And I was cleaning out and then I was like, got to the spice straw, and there was kind of my
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  version of DIY and so started filming. And she's like, what are you doing here? Because I was like,
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  oh, gosh. And also it was at the time when we first started trying to pump out, you know,
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  content on Instagram. And I took this video of doing the spices and I looked and I thought,
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  this is an on-brand phrase. But it kind of plays in that DIY.
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  But it's a short-term trend. It's like a big meaning to do that for so long. And now I'm stuck
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  at home. I'm going to do that. I'm going to paint the wall and I'm going to put up that shelf.
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  Exactly. I'm kind of interested, though, that the DIY trend is still a trend when we're all
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  kind of back to normal. Do you think that people of all of a sudden realise it's kind of fun
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  to do DIY? Or like, why do we think it's still a trend?
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  I think the DIY trend may have faded a little bit, but all through the pandemic you couldn't get
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  professional tradings into your house because of distancing. So you were taking off those
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  little things that you could do yourself. But the bigger items that you couldn't do, now that
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  professional tradings are allowed to come back into your home, you can get them back into it.
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  So home depot and lows don't just sell to DIY. They sell to professionals as well.
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  And so it's just about this investment in your home. Home prices are up massively, as we know,
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  here in New Zealand, but also in the US. And so you've got that equity in your home. You can afford
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  to kind of invest a little bit into it. And in addition, in the US, well, mortgage rates everywhere
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  have gone up, but you're going to be very reluctant to sell and buy a new house and have to pay
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  that high mortgage rate. So instead, you might just improve your current home rather than sell.
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  I also think that people are spending more time working from home, like doing two days a week.
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  And rather than say the whole five days during the pandemic, there's still doing two days
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  a week at home, which means you're spending more time at home, which means you're spending her time
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  working on her bathroom and painting her dead brotherhood. No, I'm meaning I hope my
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  bathroom's on the snow. No, I'm meaning you're spending more time at home. So you're noticing
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  those things that you want to fix or, you know, paint or still hearing things during your
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  animations in work time. Just on a conference call with a little like roller.
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  Okay, DIY, that's an interesting one. So if we move away from the pandemic to just other
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  short term trends that are happening, installation is one that is huge right now and you read about it
• 16:37
  on every newspaper, you hear about it on the radio on TV, inflation is starting to really impact
• 16:43
  consumers. And so you might start to think, you know, what am I doing? Am I starting to shift to
• 16:48
  cheaper items at the supermarket? Am I trading down to home brands? Are there certain brands
• 16:54
  that I won't give up regardless of what the price does? Well, I hold on to those. So then you can
• 16:58
  think which companies might benefit from that. And so then you can think, okay, what companies
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  have pricing power? Sorry. Did you just cough? Sorry. Sorry, I thought that was a
• 17:12
  quiz. Such a show. Correct, correct. So supermarkets could be a good investment.
• 17:21
  If you're feeling the pressure from inflation, you're going to cut your five streaming video on
• 17:26
  demand platforms, your neon and your Disney class, but you're probably not going to cut your
• 17:31
  food. Well, you know that you grow series, you still have to eat. So actually having the minds
• 17:37
  of what is essential? What do people have to pay for? I.e. electricity, food? Yeah,
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  accepting. So we've seen discretionary spend pull back quite a bit. And partly also because
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  people have spent so much money over the last few years, you know, you've bought that phone,
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  you've bought that barbecue, you've bought all those discretionary things because you had more
• 17:57
  money because you weren't traveling, you weren't going out for dinner, all of these things.
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  So now that you're starting to feel the pinch, you pull away from those discretionary items and
• 18:05
  put it back into kind of the staples. So you can take it a step further and look at specific brands.
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  So for example, like Coca-Cola, if you want a can of Coke, you're probably going to go to the
• 18:18
  real deal and just buy a can of Coke, even if it's gone up, you know, 30 cents, 50 cents, whatever
• 18:23
  it's gone up, whereas something like toilet paper or paper towels, you might not be so brand loyal,
• 18:30
  you don't really care if something's gone up or if something's on special, you're just going to grab
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  those ones. So thinking about which brands have loyalty means that that brand probably has pricing
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  power. And is that similar to the whole competitive mode situation around, like if it's a strong brand,
• 18:48
  i.e., if you're wanting running shoes, probably Nike will still be okay, but maybe, you know,
• 18:53
  a smaller brand that's just as expensive, might not do well. You've been listening. Yay!
• 18:59
  I'm here in the room with two very intelligent people. I'm just trying to keep up. Also, I just
• 19:08
  said, thanks guys, I really need to get that out of my vocal. Thanks guys. I did that too.
• 19:12
  Yeah. Lady sounds like old woman that you're at. I did that at the presentation. Yeah.
• 19:16
  A curve presentation. I was like, hi guys. And I was like, oh my gosh, like the whole premise that
• 19:20
  I'm here is to like, how woman? I imagine if we did that in a room full of men. We were like,
• 19:27
  hey, girls, they'd be like, I give it all the time at work. It's just really when the guys
• 19:32
  leave the office, they're like, sealeds, and I'm like, okay, yeah, yeah, see you do.
• 19:39
  You should just be like, bye babe. Or when I leave the office, I'll be like, bye girls.
• 19:47
  Very nice. Brand loyalty. Oh yes. Is that a good example or do you have other examples?
• 19:54
  Yeah, that's a good example. Also, things like, and these aren't in my shopping list, but
• 20:01
  Ferrari and Inez. What are you doing? You're not trying to buy an Inez bracelet?
• 20:08
  And I think that's the key is that the people who do spend on those sorts of products
• 20:14
  have so much money that it's neither here nor there to them. So if a Ferrari goes from $400,000
• 20:22
  to $500,000, the person buying that is buying it because of the brand and the experience and
• 20:28
  the exclusivity, they don't care about the price really. Because it's historically like Ferrari's
• 20:34
  been pretty stable during recessions, like the sales of Ferraris because it's kind of selling
• 20:43
  to people that are kind of immune. Both Ferrarian and Inez deliberately hold back
• 20:51
  supply. So they sort of hold back supply and that creates this air of exclusivity, like not
• 20:57
  anyone can just buy them. And that pushes demand up. And it means they can charge whatever they want.
• 21:03
  So I think Inez has, they have a quota. You can only buy two handbags a year from them.
• 21:09
  And you also can't just walk into a store and buy one. You have to develop a relationship
• 21:14
  with the sales associate. You have to show brand loyalty and then you're pretty much getting
• 21:20
  invited. You get invited into the store to buy back. Like it's the most elitist thing I've ever
• 21:25
  heard. Like you've got to go kiss us in a shop to buy a bag. Exactly. So with Rolex as well.
• 21:30
  All of those luxury brands, they operate the same way. And they've been incredibly resilient.
• 21:36
  Maybe we need to have it but share with her listens to the podcast.
• 21:40
  Not you. I'm creating air of exclusivity. Sorry, you've got to apply to it. And we only get
• 21:46
  team lessons per episode. And if you don't make the cash then it's a wild. So brand power is
• 21:53
  really important in these kinds of times. What are some other examples of strong brands that maybe
• 21:59
  would be affected by something like inflation because people will probably just stop buying them?
• 22:04
  I think like clothing brands will probably do it tough during like the Zara's in the world.
• 22:10
  Because they're sort of mass produced. There's nothing too special about them.
• 22:14
  But then you've got the flip side of people who maybe would have bought
• 22:19
  I'm going to spend more expensive in a trading down. So it's kind of like
• 22:24
  yeah, it's quite interesting. This is a stupid game. You're just like guessing all the time.
• 22:28
  Yeah. But how on earthy means to get it right? Because you're so right and you're so right.
• 22:32
  It's in terms of people stopping buying HM because they're blah. And then sorry, they're not blah.
• 22:38
  It's so rude. And then people, you know, like how are you meant to know what the behavior
• 22:44
  is? Welcome to investing. And that's why there's a market. That's why there are people buying
• 22:48
  and selling at the same time. Oh my god. So I was like get me out of this room now.
• 22:58
  So are there any other short term trends that are worth mentioning for people to kind of grasp
• 23:03
  the idea of what short term trends are? Yes. Hit me. So rushes invasion of Ukraine.
• 23:12
  We've seen oil and gas prices soar. So then it's through the roof. Like European natural gas
• 23:19
  is up 700% since last year. Why? If you're not taller this Victoria.
• 23:24
  I sure wouldn't invest in that anyway to be fair. It's coming in the next episode.
• 23:27
  So what we've seen this year is that energy companies have really benefited. So we've had
• 23:38
  the top performing company in the world in the MSCI is a company called Oxidental Petroleum,
• 23:44
  which as you know, you can probably tell it's an energy company. And that's up 101%
• 23:52
  versus the market being kind of down 18%. What kind of energy? So it does shale oil. So it's
• 24:01
  a lot of it is kind of dirty energy. But why it's also done well is because
• 24:07
  there also a pioneer in direct air capture, which is taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
• 24:13
  So they're sort of a sustainable energy company. Their core business is still kind of
• 24:18
  traditional, but they're moving into more sustainable businesses. And so I think that's given
• 24:24
  investors a little bit more confidence to put money into into a company like that.
• 24:29
  That's why a lot of like environmentally friendly funds or like those ESG funds that we talked
• 24:34
  about have kind of not done as well this year because oil and gas companies, which they obviously
• 24:41
  don't invest in, have done so well. They've like underperformed those. Does that make sense?
• 24:47
  Like it's honestly for Russia. It's only I love that's what you take from it.
• 24:52
  Yeah. Fuck Russia. No, it's true. Yeah. Yeah. That's a fair sentiment.
• 25:01
  But the good thing is that everything that's been going on with the oil and gas prices
• 25:07
  means that it's actually positive for renewables in the longer term because European countries
• 25:12
  have realized that they're so dependent on Russia for their energy requirements. And so they're now
• 25:18
  starting to think, you know, we actually need to have more energy security. So we need to invest
• 25:23
  in renewables. We need to kind of set things up so that this doesn't happen in the future. So it's
• 25:28
  actually been quite positive in terms of highlighting the case for renewables and potentially bringing
• 25:32
  that investment forward. So short term pain for long term gain. The renewables takes a lot of
• 25:38
  investment which takes time. And so it's sort of a longer term game. Whereas right now the
• 25:45
  critical thing is just getting energy to Europe. So they're starting to fire up some of the kind
• 25:49
  of coal plants and things because they're at the point where they might have to start rationing
• 25:56
  energy. They might have to have industrial shutdowns. And they're about to go into winter,
• 25:59
  which is where the energy requirements are the highest. So they're in a pretty dire situation.
• 26:03
  And they're just doing what they need to do to get by. You might be able to only have the lights on
• 26:09
  from like 8pm till 10pm or something. And then factories being shut down. I can imagine what
• 26:17
  that will like reverberate around the world if production and manufacturing plants can't be
• 26:22
  open and then you can't get supply. But that's a good example of a short term trend that's also a
• 26:28
  long term trend. Short term positive for oil and gas companies. Long term positive for
• 26:34
  renewable companies because they'll, these countries will get the A into G eventually. And then
• 26:39
  there will be a lot more usage of renewable energy. I've got another short term trend for you.
• 26:44
  Amazing. I love that you did some planning before the session. There's so many good ideas.
• 26:49
  So it's the great resignation. Is this the way you heard about it? Fuck the world. I'm going
• 26:54
  traveling. You only live once. Is that divine? Yeah. The yellow. The yellow. That's so, that's so
• 27:01
  is the great resignation. Please do not resign. Please do not resign. See you again. Bye.
• 27:08
  So that's now a short term trend. Yeah. So I think so from so 47 million Americans resigned
• 27:16
  last year. And that's voluntary. Yeah. Resignations. Losing their jobs. That's all voluntary.
• 27:21
  And even this year, one in five people planned to quit their job. So that's huge.
• 27:29
  But is that because people had wanted the safety during COVID of a job and now it's like playing
• 27:36
  catch up? Is that kind of, because why all of a sudden? I think it's a bit of both. So I think once
• 27:41
  people realized that they weren't going into a recession in kind of 2020, they sort of held onto
• 27:48
  their job through there. And then in 2021, they were like, you know what? I hate this. I'm just going
• 27:52
  to leave. And also people started to realize, you know, like during the pandemic, you were at home,
• 28:00
  you spent time with family, went for walks, you appreciated nature, all of those good things.
• 28:04
  Then you start going back to work and you go, you know what? I don't want to do this. There are
• 28:08
  better things in life to think about and to do. And so they kind of quit the rat race. And so it's
• 28:14
  that's been a big trend. Then there might be people who want to go traveling because they couldn't
• 28:19
  for the last few years. So they go, you know what? I'm going to take a whole year off and I'm going
• 28:22
  to go explore. Or they might start their own business. Or they might just be looking for another job.
• 28:29
  They might want one that has more flexibility or, you know, aligns with their values more. Any of
• 28:34
  that kind of stuff. There's also a great resignation from your marriage short-term. There's also
• 28:41
  a, like, no, you're just like talking about staying at home and then you go back to work. And I was
• 28:46
  like, oh my gosh, I remember like there was a real spike in like divorce lawyers and their work
• 28:51
  closed because people were obviously at home with their partners stuck, you know, full-time.
• 28:56
  Yeah, it's so much time with them. They're like, they're really good at marriage. I hate my husband.
• 29:00
  They realize we got issues. And then yeah, divorce lawyers were there like workload just spiked.
• 29:08
  And also, like, there was this, one of the trends was, oh, everything's going to open up and
• 29:13
  airlines going to do well in hotels and everything. But actually because of inflation, because of
• 29:17
  interest rates, people are now thinking, you know, what? Maybe I'll just touch some money away.
• 29:22
  Maybe I won't take that trip. So it's all maybe I'll be like, yolo, spend everything, sell the house,
• 29:28
  and deal with it when they come here. It could go one of two ways. But yeah, so it's sort of
• 29:34
  come at a tricky time with this recessionary overhang.
• 29:38
  Do you guys just stalk people all the time? Like you like, tell me about your life, tell me about these,
• 29:44
  you know, like to, like, you're basically stalking people,
• 29:46
  essentially what your job is. I love talking to overdrivers or taxi drivers.
• 29:50
  That was like a big thing when I was overseas. Like I remember doing that research,
• 29:53
  trips to Tokyo and like Vancouver and you just, you get, when you get a good taxi driver,
• 29:58
  that just like, you learn to stop talking. And it's interesting though, like just the idea of
• 30:03
  studying human behaviour. And that's, you know, it's not just numbers. There's actually like a real
• 30:08
  intuitive psychology. Yeah. Psychology behind investing that I kind of don't feel like I've seen
• 30:15
  much of until now. Yeah. And yeah. But so passionate about that.
• 30:21
  Another thing, I think these quite, like you said, quite a tie up with finance and psychology.
• 30:28
  Because I think like even on a smaller scale, like sitting in front of companies and sitting
• 30:33
  in front of CEOs and asking them, like how things are going with their business. And you start to
• 30:39
  build these relationships. Well, you know, you, you meet them frequently and then say all of a
• 30:44
  sudden, CEOs, like really stressed or like sweating or like, you know, erratic. You're like,
• 30:50
  oh gosh, well, something's going on. You're really stressed out. So it's, you're kind of,
• 30:53
  it's all about reading people as well as like looking at consumer behaviour. That kind of plays
• 30:58
  into it as well. It's like hang on, every time I've met with you, you've been like super calm
• 31:03
  and super chill. And now something's going on with the business. You know, so it's kind of, like
• 31:08
  I remember, I don't know if I've told this story before, but I was sitting in a reception room
• 31:14
  at a company that we had already invested in and we were just visiting them for a catch-up and
• 31:20
  see how things were going. And we were sitting in the reception and there was just like people going
• 31:25
  everywhere, like the most hectic reception I've ever seen. I was like, okay, something's going on
• 31:30
  here. And the CEO was like 15 minutes, like the meeting and he was erratic in the meeting and then
• 31:35
  cut it short like and we kind of left that meeting of like, okay, either business is going
• 31:41
  absolutely terribly and they're scrambling to like, you know, make, make ends meet and make profit
• 31:47
  targets or they've done something good and they've bought a business or something's going on.
• 31:54
  In any way, we kind of came away and thought, I reckon something good. You know, something's going
• 31:58
  on from a positive point of view and we bought some stock and then announced that they'd merged with
• 32:02
  this big, this other company like the week later or something. So it was quite crazy. And again,
• 32:08
  it's comes in, everyone thinks it's sitting behind a desk and crunching numbers and coming out
• 32:11
  with evaluation and it is but part of it is like reading people and thinking, okay, what's different
• 32:18
  this time to last time or what what what behaviors are happening now that weren't happening before
• 32:24
  and it's like constantly, I wish I'd taken a psychology course actually. I actually feel like
• 32:30
  just hearing that makes me think I can be a good investor on that because I actually think that's
• 32:35
  a skill of mine and most women are like very intuitive and I guess to have that kind of nod that
• 32:40
  like it's just a natural instinct to read people and understand what they like, what they don't,
• 32:44
  what's working, what's not. That's really exciting. Yeah. And it's kind of like we now go to the supermarket
• 32:50
  now and I look at the shelves and I look at what's what shelves are empty and I'm like, I can't switch
• 32:56
  off, you know, like I look at the shelves and I say, oh, that's empty. Oh, what product was there?
• 33:00
  Oh, okay. And then if I go back the next week and it's still empty and I'm like, oh, well,
• 33:04
  obviously that that product isn't high demand and then you kind of see if it's listed and then
• 33:09
  you're like, oh, when you look at it a bit more. So it's kind of sometimes it's hard to switch off
• 33:14
  when you're in that mindset but it's like thinking, yeah, just kind of always being on, I guess.
• 33:20
  Yeah. Like oat milk was an example of that. I remember going to the supermarket and just seeing
• 33:26
  every oat milk was sold. Yeah. And then I started, because I started drinking oat milk maybe a
• 33:31
  year ago and didn't really think much of it. But then as I started to go into cafes, I would
• 33:36
  every person in front of me or behind me would be ordering an oat milk coffee and I thought
• 33:41
  something's gone on here. Like everyone seems to be drinking oat milk now and then you
• 33:45
  can kind of look for a company that might be exposed to that and there is actually one called
• 33:49
  Oakley. I love Oakley. Yeah. So they're listed. It hasn't done very well though. So I'm not,
• 33:55
  I'm not 100% sure exactly what's gone on there. But you can, you know, just observe stuff going on
• 34:00
  around you and then look for opportunities. Okay. This has been a fantastic episode. Thank you both
• 34:06
  so much. No worries. No, I'm a bit seriously because I feel very lucky to be, I feel like it would
• 34:13
  have been nerd now, but like to be sitting here looking at both of you and you're just talking
• 34:17
  at and they give me all this knowledge. I'm like, this is so valuable. So thank you so much,
• 34:22
  Steph and Vic. Yeah, thanks, Steph, thanks coming in. Thanks for having me. And we're going to go into
• 34:26
  long-term trends in the next episode with you. Thank you so much for joining us for today's
• 34:32
  episode of Raising the Curve. Please subscribe and leave a review on what ever platform you're
• 34:37
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• 34:41
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• 34:45
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