Latest / Balance of Power / Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Bill; Sen. Cassidy Backs Todd Blanche

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Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Bill; Sen. Cassidy Backs Todd Blanche · Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: Back to bad News on Main Street, Good News on
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Speaker 2: Wall Street.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess it depends on your review on how
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Speaker 3: bad the news actually is, because, yes, payrolls did decline
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Speaker 3: by twenty three thousand, plus you had downward revisions to
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Speaker 3: the prior two months. But the unemployment rate ticked lower
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Speaker 3: to four point one percent, which is the narrative that
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Speaker 3: the White House is seizing on today. In the National
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Speaker 3: Economic Council, Director Kevin Hasse said that's the number he's watching.
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Speaker 3: But then we have to consider unemployment is lower because
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Speaker 3: less people, fewer people are participating. Participation outside COVID is
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Speaker 3: now at the lowest level we've seen since the nineteen.
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Speaker 2: Seven surprisingly low number here. That's not, incidentally what the
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Speaker 2: President is posting about. By the way, he's talking about
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Speaker 2: the ballroom. This just hit right before we began this hour.
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Speaker 2: Taking the case to the Supreme court after an appeals
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Speaker 2: court today ruled that he must stop construction without the
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Speaker 2: approval of Congress.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's not clear that he can get approval
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Speaker 3: of Congress on that or other matters that he prioritizes,
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Speaker 3: like portions of the State of America Act, which are embedded,
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Speaker 3: of course, in this budget reconciliation package that may or
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Speaker 3: may not get a procedural vote in the Senate today
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Speaker 3: there instead dealing with a few things. First, they're voting
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Speaker 3: right now on a Russia sanctions bill that does have
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Speaker 3: the votes to pass. While the vote count is not final,
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Speaker 3: it does look indeed like that is going to be
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Speaker 3: sent over.
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Speaker 4: To the House.
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Speaker 3: Plus the votes are there for the confirmation of Todd
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Speaker 3: blanche to be Attorney General, after Senator Bill Cassidy said
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Speaker 3: he will be a yes on that confert.
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Speaker 4: Pretty big moment this morning. Didn't see it coming.
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Speaker 2: In some cases, when you announced you're going to have
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Speaker 2: a moment like that, it's usually not as easy as
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Speaker 2: saying yes.
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Speaker 4: But that in fact is the case.
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Speaker 2: So it looks like the United States will have a
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Speaker 2: new full time attorney general. Be curious to see if
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Speaker 2: they get it done before they leave town.
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Speaker 4: Though it comes to a full vote.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, the jet fumes are in the air. They might
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Speaker 3: want to just get out of dodge. We'll get to
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Speaker 3: all of that this hour, of course, but we begin
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Speaker 3: with these jobs day markets, and for that we turn
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Speaker 3: to Charlie Pellett in New York.
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Speaker 5: H I thank you very much, Kaylee, and the happy
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Speaker 5: Friday to you. Both employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July.
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Speaker 5: Hiring in the prior two months was revised lower, suggesting
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Speaker 5: that the labor market is weaker than previously thought after
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Speaker 5: surprising strength earlier in the year. Non Farm payrolls down
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Speaker 5: twenty three thousand stocks hire, oil also hire. Right now,
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Speaker 5: let's begin with crude because West Texas Intermediate back above
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Speaker 5: seventy eight to barrel seventy eight thirteen right now up
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Speaker 5: one point one percent. Barrel of brent eighty three thirty
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Speaker 5: eight heading into the weekend, up now by one point
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Speaker 5: one percent. S and P is a baseline, that's seventy
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Speaker 5: seven forty four, up thirty four points, up about five
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Speaker 5: tenths of one percent. The now hire as well, up
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Speaker 5: seventy eight points, now up by about one tenth of
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Speaker 5: one percent. We've got nastack up two hundred and fifty
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Speaker 5: four up one percent. Nestack one one hundred up by
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Speaker 5: nine tenths of one percent. Big move for the socks today.
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Speaker 5: The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index up now by two
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Speaker 5: point one percent. The ten year currently yielding four point
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Speaker 5: sixty five percent, the two year four point two oho percent,
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Speaker 5: and the thirty year five point two oh percent. Gold
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Speaker 5: up ninety three dollars, the ounce to forty three thirty
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Speaker 5: two up two point two percent, and again WTI up
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Speaker 5: by one point one percent. Seventy eight twelve barrel earnings use.
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Speaker 5: We've got Sweet Green shares plunging by eight point four percent.
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Speaker 5: The restaurant chain, the salad chain did cut its annual
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Speaker 5: outlook due to reduce consumer demand for fresh prepared foods
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Speaker 5: during the cyclist Spora outbreak. Also, we've got United Armor
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Speaker 5: under Armor, I should say, forecasting a sharper revenue decline
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Speaker 5: than previously expected after earnings. Under Armor shares down now
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Speaker 5: by four point one percent. Recapping stocks Hire SMP on
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Speaker 5: this Friday, up now by five tenths of one percent.
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Speaker 5: For on demand U twenty four hours a day, subscribe
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Speaker 5: to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcast and
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Speaker 5: that Joe Matthew is a Bloomberg business flash and Kylie
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Speaker 5: Lyns too.
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Speaker 6: There you go.
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Speaker 3: Thank you very much, Charlie Pellett bringing us through these
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Speaker 3: markets as we close out the trading week, and it
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Speaker 3: looks like we maybe are on track to close out
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Speaker 3: this week in Washington in the United States Senate unless
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Speaker 3: this does bleed into a Saturday session, as they've been
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Speaker 3: taking care as best they can of a number of
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Speaker 3: different agenda items, and if you've been listening or watching
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Speaker 3: this program this week, you know that included the confirmation
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Speaker 3: of Todd blanche to be the next Attorney General. There
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Speaker 3: was very much a question as to whether or not
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Speaker 3: they could get to the requisite amount of votes to
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Speaker 3: get the President his nominee confirmed, as they already lost
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Speaker 3: Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who's up for reelection. As
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Speaker 3: of six am this morning, they had also lost the
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Speaker 3: vote of Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and those were
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Speaker 3: the only two votes they could afford to lose. A
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Speaker 3: third would have tanked the nomination for the first time
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Speaker 3: we've seen in decades. So it was all up to
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Speaker 3: Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who took to the Senate
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Speaker 3: floor in dramatic fashion to announce that indeed he would
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Speaker 3: be as mister Blanche.
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Speaker 7: Is not perfect, and he will tell you this. But
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Speaker 7: the choice is not between perfection and mister Blanche. It
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Speaker 7: is between mister Blanche and another acting Attorney general who
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Speaker 7: may not run the department effectively under President Trump and
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Speaker 7: who indeed may not be as good as mister Blanche.
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Speaker 2: It's where we start our conversation with Josh Wingrove. Let's
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Speaker 2: get the latest from the White House right now. Bloomberg
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Speaker 2: White House corresponded live on the North Lawn. Josh, it's
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Speaker 2: always great to have you. Was that the decision that
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Speaker 2: lawmakers had to make approve Todd Blanche in case or
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Speaker 2: to keep the president from appointing someone worse?
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Speaker 6: I mean, it's one way to frame it, I suppose
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Speaker 6: you know, as we know, the backstory here is Cassidy
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Speaker 6: has been a foe of there, so the President's gone
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Speaker 6: after him, supported a primary against him, and it really
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Speaker 6: has not been the president very much yet. Of course,
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Speaker 6: we saw the same thing in Texas with John Cornyn,
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Speaker 6: and so the question was Cassidy didn't really have a
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Speaker 6: lot of reason to go to bat for the president,
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Speaker 6: and that's what made today's announcement pretty surprising. Senator Cassie
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Speaker 6: kind of choked up towards the end of it to
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Speaker 6: give you a sense of at least the weight of
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Speaker 6: the moment that he felt. But Trump World had been
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Speaker 6: pressing for this, both sort of acknowledging that Blanche has
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Speaker 6: been at risk, but also expressing confidence that in the
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Speaker 6: end he would be confirmed, including of course after that
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Speaker 6: deal to get him out of Committee. And so in
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Speaker 6: some ways I think they'll be taking a victory lap here,
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Speaker 6: but not be too surprised on it, of course. Income
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Speaker 6: what appears to be our new permanent attorney general or
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Speaker 6: confirmed attorney general poor lawyer of the president, and just
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Speaker 6: goes to show you that Congress continues to back, essentially,
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Speaker 6: or the Republicans in Congress in particular, of course, back
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Speaker 6: what the president wants to do. So it's a surprising one,
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Speaker 6: I suppose you could say. In some ways more Houski's
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Speaker 6: announcement nodded to it in that she might not have
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Speaker 6: come out with her no vote had she not known
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Speaker 6: that she had the wagle room to do that. But
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Speaker 6: that's just pure speculation on my part as I melt
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Speaker 6: here like an ice cream cone on the the north
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Speaker 6: lawn ear. But yeah, to be celebrating him in the
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Speaker 6: business in the building behind.
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Speaker 3: Yes, indeed, we appreciate you suffering the elements for us
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Speaker 3: and next or one wing of the building behind you,
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Speaker 3: of course is not visible to our audience on television,
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Speaker 3: and it's not visible unless from above. There's just a
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Speaker 3: giant hole in the ground where the east wing used
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Speaker 3: to be. That, of course, is where the President wants
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Speaker 3: to construct his ballroom, and the judge today ruled if
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Speaker 3: he wants to continue to do that above ground, he
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Speaker 3: must get the authorization of Congress. Q. President Trump taking
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Speaker 3: to true Social Josh to pledge to take this case
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Speaker 3: all the way to the Supreme Court. What do you
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Speaker 3: make of that?
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Speaker 6: I think he continues to be very focused on their
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Speaker 6: renovations on this building. Not only that, but the hell
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Speaker 6: of pad which we saw reporting of course this week,
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Speaker 6: that has been they've been of ripping it up to
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Speaker 6: restart what he's doing. The risk for the President here
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Speaker 6: is this is muddying his message, right, so he's going
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Speaker 6: to take this to the Supreme Court essentially keeps the
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Speaker 6: fight going. He's talking about it on the stump. I
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Speaker 6: was with him when he gave a speech in Vegas
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Speaker 6: a couple of days ago, and that speech really focused on,
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Speaker 6: you know, what he casts as the strength of the economy.
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Speaker 6: He's talking about Iran and hoping it will end soon.
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Speaker 6: He veers into the renovation projects regularly, including the ballroom,
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Speaker 6: and the question is whether that is you know, ultimately,
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Speaker 6: what we'll get, what voters will respond to. Right. Poles
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Speaker 6: are showing voters are very frustrated with the state of
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Speaker 6: the economy, the Trump is underwater on his handling to
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Speaker 6: the economy, which is normally a strong suit for him
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Speaker 6: and Poles, and that his overall approval rating is at
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Speaker 6: or near all time lows. Trump dismiss these dismisses these
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Speaker 6: Poles as fake. But I just think what we're going
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Speaker 6: to continue to see as this legal fight drags on
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Speaker 6: is just a profile from it, whether it's those or
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Speaker 6: the reflecting pool, I should add, And the President just
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Speaker 6: continues to be very interested in them. So I don't
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Speaker 6: think I'm not surprised that he's going all the way
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Speaker 6: to the Supreme Court. We'll see what they say. They've
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Speaker 6: given him a lot of leeway into eight and so
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Speaker 6: you know, read into that what you will. But the
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Speaker 6: saga and the ballroom will continue to go, and the
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Speaker 6: President just keeps wanting to talk about it.
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Speaker 2: Can we ask quickly about jobs, Josh, this is a
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Speaker 2: big story today, and we're about to talk to Jared Bernstein,
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Speaker 2: who used to speak with pretty often in the Biden administration,
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Speaker 2: to get his take on these numbers. I haven't seen anything.
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Speaker 2: Maybe I've missed it from the president. Are they celebrating
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Speaker 2: this report to the extent that Wall Street is?
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Speaker 4: Yeah?
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Speaker 6: I mean, Jared stood here often during the Biden administration,
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Speaker 6: so I'm trying to keep his podium warm here at
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Speaker 6: the Bloomberg tent. They are essentially shrugging it off right
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Speaker 6: now with saying, look, these are high variance numbers. This
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Speaker 6: is an operation. They noted that the consensus estimate was higher,
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Speaker 6: such a saying that's a good thing. That maybe the
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Speaker 6: experts are right. Of course, by the way, when the
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Speaker 6: numbers beat consensus, they say, yeah, the experts don't know anything,
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Speaker 6: so they could pick their lane on that one. We'll see,
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Speaker 6: but right now, I think Trump one revealing comment from
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Speaker 6: Hazard today is that one of the only economic indicators
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Speaker 6: as he's looking at is that unemployment ray Kaylee. I
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Speaker 6: believe you alluded to that earlier, and I think that
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Speaker 6: that is telling. Right now, Trump lakes to talk about
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Speaker 6: the strength of the stock market, all time highs, all that,
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Speaker 6: but his one of the top economic advisers saying they're
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Speaker 6: really watching that employment Raymond, So I think that that
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Speaker 6: is telling. They're continue to be mixed signals at best
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Speaker 6: in the economy. Of course, if you listen to the
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Speaker 6: president's speech, you wouldn't necessarily hear that.
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Speaker 3: All right, Josh Wingrove will let you get into the
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Speaker 3: air conditioning. Thanks for joining us, Bloomberg White House correspondent
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Speaker 3: live from the hot North Lawn for us on this Friday.
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Speaker 4: Three percent humidity.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's brutal. I don't envy Josh. Right now, we're
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Speaker 3: in a nice air conditioned studio ourselves.
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Speaker 4: We have the good gig today.
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Speaker 3: And of course, as Josh alluded to, Jared Bernstein has
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Speaker 3: braved those elements on the North lawn of the White
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Speaker 3: House many times during his tenure in the Biden administration
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Speaker 3: as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors.
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Speaker 3: He's now distinguished policy fellow at the Stanford Institute for
10:54
Speaker 3: Economic Policy Research and is back with us on Bloomberg
10:57
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Jared, good to you, as always here
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Speaker 3: on balance of power. As Josh was touching on on
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Speaker 3: the end there, the White House says, just look at
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Speaker 3: unemployment four point one percent. But I wonder in your
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Speaker 3: mind how much that lower unemployment rate has to do
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Speaker 3: with the sixty one point four percent labor force partition
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Speaker 3: preation rate and whether or not that actually is cost
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Speaker 3: for concern.
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Speaker 8: First of all, it sounds like the labor force participation
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Speaker 8: rate is awfully close to the humidity rate on the
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Speaker 8: White House, I don't know that those two.
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Speaker 4: Numbers here together.
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Speaker 8: The reason they like the unemployment rate this morning is
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Speaker 8: because it ticked down a tenth. If payroll jobs had
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Speaker 8: been strong, they would have said they liked that. So
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Speaker 8: that's all just spin. One of you made I think
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Speaker 8: was I think it was Joe a second ago said
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Speaker 8: something of the effect that the unemployment rate take down
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Speaker 8: for the wrong reasons, And that's correct, and it's important.
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Speaker 8: The unemployment rate can go down for two reasons. One,
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Speaker 8: people looking for jobs leave unemployment they get a job.
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Speaker 8: Two they give up, and that shows up as the
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Speaker 8: labor force contracting. That's what happened in July. We saw
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Speaker 8: a lower labor porce, and we also saw lower employment,
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Speaker 8: not just in the payroll survey, but in the household
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Speaker 8: survey as well, the survey that measures unemployment, and that's
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Speaker 8: actually been a sequence lately. So we've seen quite weak
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Speaker 8: numbers on the household survey, and you know that's obviously
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Speaker 8: a sign of increased lack. That said, four point one
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Speaker 8: is still pretty low on employment, so no reason to panic,
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Speaker 8: but certainly a soft report.
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Speaker 4: Did they give up, Jarrett? Or did they just go away?
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Speaker 2: When you see a participation rate falling to it's actually
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Speaker 2: sixty one point four percent, lowest since the nineteen seventies
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Speaker 2: when you exclude the pandemic. We've heard a lot of
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Speaker 2: explanations here that include even the impact of the president's
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Speaker 2: immigration policy.
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Speaker 4: Where did everyone go? Or are they on the couch
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Speaker 4: giving up? Looking for me?
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Speaker 8: Well, the problem with you using the top line number
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Speaker 8: and we all do it, and it's right there staring
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Speaker 8: you in the face as soon as you open up
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Speaker 8: the report is it also includes a lot older people
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Speaker 8: who have left the labor market because we have an
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Speaker 8: aging baby boomer workforce. I can speak from personal experience
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Speaker 8: in that regard, but if you look at the more
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Speaker 8: narrow what we call prime age twenty five to fifty
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Speaker 8: four year old, we got a big tick down in
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Speaker 8: the employment rate or the labor force participation rate in June,
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Speaker 8: and a lot of people thought, well, not surely going
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Speaker 8: to correct in July, because these numbers are noisy month
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Speaker 8: to month. It corrected a tiny bit, but I think
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Speaker 8: if you look at the trend year over year, or
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Speaker 8: again look at the prime age rate, you see some
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Speaker 8: softness there.
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Speaker 4: And so this remains to be.
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Speaker 8: A no higher, no fire job market with pretty weak
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Speaker 8: job creation, relatively low unemployment, not a ton of layoffs,
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Speaker 8: but real fragilities under the hood.
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Speaker 3: Well, and you have some softer wage grow as well, Jared,
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Speaker 3: And obviously that has implications for the American worker which
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Speaker 3: is facing inflation and may not be seeing their wages
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Speaker 3: keep up. But also does it not have impact on
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Speaker 3: the way in which the Fed is considering inflation here
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Speaker 3: if you're not seeing the kind of wage price side
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Speaker 3: of things that you might expect.
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Speaker 8: All really interesting and important questions that I dove into
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Speaker 8: in my write up this morning. Three point two percent.
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Speaker 8: That's the year over year wage growth. That's the lowest
14:31
Speaker 8: we've seen in nominal yearly wage growth since the pandemic.
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Speaker 8: And by the way, if you stack that number up
14:37
Speaker 8: with a bunch of other wage reports, as you should, Again,
14:40
Speaker 8: these can be noisy numbers, but if you take an
14:42
Speaker 8: average of everything out there, you get the same pattern.
14:45
Speaker 6: And so the.
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Speaker 8: Folks at the FED recognize that whatever inflation we're seeing
14:49
Speaker 8: isn't coming from the labor market, it's not coming from
14:52
Speaker 8: the wage side. But we know that the more hawkish
14:55
Speaker 8: contingent over there, which seems to be growing, are well
14:59
Speaker 8: aware of that, and they're still nervous about high and
15:03
Speaker 8: sticky inflation. That means that it's largely coming from the
15:06
Speaker 8: supply side of the equation, the tariffs of the war,
15:09
Speaker 8: along with some pressure from AI picks and shovels. The
15:13
Speaker 8: question for them is can they really look through that
15:16
Speaker 8: or after month after month, air after year of missing
15:19
Speaker 8: their target, do they have to worry about this pattern
15:22
Speaker 8: dislodging inflationary expectations, in which case they would hike. But
15:26
Speaker 8: I don't want to let the consumer get lost in
15:28
Speaker 8: this picture. I mean, you guys started off talking about
15:31
Speaker 8: Main Street Wall Street. Boy, are they going in different
15:33
Speaker 8: directions right now? Three point two percent wage growth is
15:37
Speaker 8: almost certainly below inflation, which has been tracking well north
15:40
Speaker 8: of three percent. And we know that labor share of
15:43
Speaker 8: national income actually hit an historic low in the Productivity
15:47
Speaker 8: report yesterday. So there's a real split between macro and
15:50
Speaker 8: micro these days.
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Speaker 4: A huge split.
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Speaker 2: Jared, it's good to see you, and thanks for weighing
15:55
Speaker 2: in on all of this. I'm glad you're not sweating
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Speaker 2: it out on the lawn today. Jared Burns, Stanford Institute
16:01
Speaker 2: for Economic Policy Research. Stay with us on Balance of Power.
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Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.
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16:28
Speaker 3: The United States Senate just passed, as we told you
16:30
Speaker 3: was on track to do so, the Russia sanctions bill, that,
16:33
Speaker 3: of course was championed by the late Senator Lindsay Graham.
16:36
Speaker 3: This is obviously no longer just a Russia sanctions package.
16:40
Speaker 3: It has been expanded to include a ran at the
16:42
Speaker 3: request of the President, and passage in the Senate does
16:45
Speaker 3: not guarantee its passage in the House, which wouldn't happen,
16:47
Speaker 3: of course, until after the August recess, but nonetheless an
16:50
Speaker 3: important signal that Washington is sending in terms of its
16:53
Speaker 3: willingness to apply greater economic pressure to the US adversaries
16:57
Speaker 3: in Russia and Iran. And of course it had to
17:00
Speaker 3: get over some hurdles Joe in order to get to
17:02
Speaker 3: this point, including a commitment that the US Trade Representative
17:05
Speaker 3: Jameson Grier had to make to Democratic Senator Rafael Warnock
17:08
Speaker 3: about the tariff authority that this gives the president. Part
17:11
Speaker 3: of this package is that the President can apply tariffs
17:13
Speaker 3: on buyers of Russian and Iranian energy, that the terriffs
17:16
Speaker 3: eventually would have to come down for countries that are
17:19
Speaker 3: no longer in the top five purchasers.
17:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, this was a difficult decision for some. There was
17:24
Speaker 2: a time when it was thought to be a possible
17:27
Speaker 2: candidate for unanimous consent, knowing that it had been named
17:31
Speaker 2: for the late Senator Lindsay Graham.
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Speaker 4: Eighty six to eleven the vote count.
17:35
Speaker 2: According to the Cloak Room here and our reporters on
17:38
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. Let's play this to the panel. Not what
17:40
Speaker 2: we thought we'd be starting with, but it's breaking right now,
17:42
Speaker 2: and we have Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeanie Shanzano with us,
17:46
Speaker 2: a Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center,
17:49
Speaker 2: and Republican strategist Mara Gillespie was founder of Blue Stack Strategies.
17:54
Speaker 2: Great to see you both, ladies, Thanks for coming along more.
17:57
Speaker 2: You worked on the Hill when Lindsay Graham's career assent
18:01
Speaker 2: was taking place, and this of course is seen by
18:05
Speaker 2: many as his crowning achievement considering the time that he
18:07
Speaker 2: put into supporting the war effort in Ukraine.
18:11
Speaker 4: Eighty six to eleven.
18:12
Speaker 2: What do you think of the turnout and some of
18:14
Speaker 2: the concessions that were made, as Kaylee mentions when it
18:17
Speaker 2: comes to expanding the president's terrorf authority, I think, overall.
18:22
Speaker 9: I think this is a victory for Lindsay Graham's legacy
18:24
Speaker 9: in terms of what he was working on up until
18:27
Speaker 9: his untimely death. You know, really he was just getting
18:29
Speaker 9: back from a trip where he was with Zelenski, President
18:31
Speaker 9: of Ukraine, working on this and really trying and working
18:35
Speaker 9: with the President to try to remind him of the
18:37
Speaker 9: threats that Russia poses, and pushing forward this bill, working
18:41
Speaker 9: across the Aisle to get this bill forward and to
18:43
Speaker 9: get the votes for it. And so I do think
18:46
Speaker 9: with their being the added around war contingency there, I
18:50
Speaker 9: think it still is a victory for Senator Lindsay Graham's
18:53
Speaker 9: legacy for sure. Well, Genie come in here on the
18:58
Speaker 9: concern that some Democrats had, who yes, did want to
19:01
Speaker 9: make sure that the United States was applying more.
19:04
Speaker 3: Prussia to Russia. But also we're very, very concerned about
19:07
Speaker 3: extending more authority for President Trump to be able to
19:11
Speaker 3: enact tariffs and tariffs at a large scale. We're talking
19:14
Speaker 3: of five hundred percent in some instances, one hundred percent
19:18
Speaker 3: in others in this legislation. How easy could it be
19:21
Speaker 3: for President Trump to abuse this authority, even with the
19:24
Speaker 3: concessions that some Democrats were able to extract.
19:28
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think there's still concern. Obviously, this was in
19:31
Speaker 10: this Senate, of course, a bypartisan win. You know, you
19:36
Speaker 10: only had the eleven Democrats the one Republican fall off,
19:39
Speaker 10: and that that is bipartisan for sure. But the concerns
19:43
Speaker 10: are very real. You know, you were just talking about
19:45
Speaker 10: the economy. There are Democrats and Republicans who are concerned
19:49
Speaker 10: that this is what they call a prescription for bedlam.
19:52
Speaker 10: It's going to fuel inflation domestically. Giving the President, who
19:57
Speaker 10: loves tariffs more than anything else, he tells us this
20:00
Speaker 10: unchecked authority to weaponize tariffs. That's a big concern. You
20:04
Speaker 10: had Gregory Meeks calling it a trojan horse. He was
20:08
Speaker 10: concerned about the bills national security waiver. So there are
20:12
Speaker 10: a lot of concerns out there. You had some Democrats
20:15
Speaker 10: who wanted to wait until after the midterms, but by
20:19
Speaker 10: and large this was a bipartisan victory. And I think
20:22
Speaker 10: the big question is now is Donald Trump going to
20:26
Speaker 10: push this in the House, Because for it to pass
20:29
Speaker 10: in the House, where there is even more concern, he
20:32
Speaker 10: is going to have to get on the phone and
20:34
Speaker 10: make some phone calls and twist some arms to get
20:36
Speaker 10: this over the hump. I think he will likely do that,
20:39
Speaker 10: considering it extends his tariff authority. But it's going to
20:43
Speaker 10: have to wait until they come back from recess.
20:46
Speaker 4: Pretty scary reporting.
20:47
Speaker 2: Jeanie in the Wall Street Journal today, US Intelligence reports
20:52
Speaker 2: posit that Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO's resolve
20:57
Speaker 2: with a limited assault on an Allied country the next
21:00
Speaker 2: few years. The US had previously assessed that Putin would
21:04
Speaker 2: not provoke a NATO country while at war with Ukraine,
21:08
Speaker 2: but that assessment has changed as Putin becomes more cornered.
21:13
Speaker 2: Does legislation like this make him a greater risk?
21:19
Speaker 10: I think legislation like this certainly does. I think you
21:23
Speaker 10: add to that the way we have over extended ourselves
21:27
Speaker 10: in Iran, and you have people in the DoD world
21:30
Speaker 10: now saying that we do not have the capacity to
21:35
Speaker 10: defend our interests in places like Asia. That makes what
21:40
Speaker 10: is happening around the world, whether it's in Russia, whether
21:43
Speaker 10: it's in Ukraine, whether it's in Asia, whether it's in
21:45
Speaker 10: the Middle East, all of these things come together and
21:49
Speaker 10: make it harder for us to defend our interests, to
21:51
Speaker 10: help our allies, and to secure ourselves. And so I
21:55
Speaker 10: do think that is one of the concerns about this
21:58
Speaker 10: sanctions bill. But I think it is become more volatile
22:02
Speaker 10: and more likely considering our defensive weapons and our munitions
22:07
Speaker 10: are at what seemed to be a historic low at
22:09
Speaker 10: this point, and the reporting. The President has pushed back
22:13
Speaker 10: on many people behind the scenes are saying he knows
22:16
Speaker 10: full well that we have a problem there. So yeah,
22:19
Speaker 10: I think this does give people like Kupin Kim Jong Un.
22:23
Speaker 10: I think it gives China if they want to do
22:25
Speaker 10: anything in Taiwan. I think it does give them an
22:28
Speaker 10: opening to take those steps.
22:31
Speaker 9: Well.
22:31
Speaker 3: On the munitions question, Maura, this is part of the
22:34
Speaker 3: reason why the Pentagon is asking Congress for more money,
22:38
Speaker 3: and they're supposed to be some seventy billion dollars for
22:41
Speaker 3: the Pentagon in the budget reconciliation package, assuming that it
22:45
Speaker 3: can make headway in the Senate. It's not entirely clear
22:49
Speaker 3: what will be action before they break for recess or
22:52
Speaker 3: what will become of things come September, but especially if
22:56
Speaker 3: they are willing to pass a continuing resolution to fund
22:58
Speaker 3: the government and keep levels steady. I wonder more what
23:02
Speaker 3: you're thinking about in terms of this Congress giving this
23:07
Speaker 3: White House in this DoD what it wants in terms
23:09
Speaker 3: of not only supplemental funding to refill our munition stockpiles,
23:13
Speaker 3: but also the one and a half trillion dollar defense
23:15
Speaker 3: budget that they've asked for.
23:17
Speaker 9: I think the problem comes with transparency. I don't think
23:20
Speaker 9: sec Very Hegseth has been transparent remotely enough and giving
23:24
Speaker 9: Congress as as they've asked for in terms of where
23:26
Speaker 9: the money is going, where it's being spent, and what
23:28
Speaker 9: the real state of things are at this current moment.
23:30
Speaker 9: I mean, when the President talks about having interest in
23:33
Speaker 9: so many places, right Genie mentioned what's happening in Iran,
23:36
Speaker 9: what's happening, you know, in Ukraine and Russia, but also
23:41
Speaker 9: what's happening in the Middle East, what's happening in Venezuela,
23:43
Speaker 9: what's happening in the waters that they've been This conversation
23:47
Speaker 9: isn't just there what our inches are in Greenland, what
23:49
Speaker 9: our interes are in Asia. There are so many different
23:51
Speaker 9: areas that the President has mentioned, talked about true social
23:54
Speaker 9: about and Segary Hegseth has shut down the pentagons price
23:58
Speaker 9: essentially and the opportunity for to ask questions. And so
24:01
Speaker 9: I think before Congress they need to be demanding those answers,
24:04
Speaker 9: demanding transparency and the numbers from Pete Hegseth, well where
24:09
Speaker 9: the finances are going before they write him another blank check.
24:12
Speaker 9: I think that's going to be really crucial and a
24:14
Speaker 9: hurdle that's going to be big for him to go
24:16
Speaker 9: over because right now Pete haigsth feels pretty empowered by
24:18
Speaker 9: the President to stiff farm Congress but also the press.
24:23
Speaker 2: You know, when we pull out and look at the
24:26
Speaker 2: situation with Iran this week, Genie, it's now Friday. We
24:30
Speaker 2: started this week with the President of the United States
24:33
Speaker 2: taking credit for canceling a wave of attacks that he
24:36
Speaker 2: said would have decapitated the regime last weekend at the
24:41
Speaker 2: request of Iran's neighbors, suggesting that within one to two
24:46
Speaker 2: days a deal would be had. He said this was
24:49
Speaker 2: going to go quick. We're not going to let this
24:50
Speaker 2: last forever. This is the thirteenth time he's done this.
24:54
Speaker 2: Now we're at Friday and the President says talks are
24:57
Speaker 2: moving along, but we have no news. How important will
25:00
Speaker 2: it be for him to announce a breakthrough this weekend.
25:06
Speaker 10: It would be wonderful if we saw a breakthrough, but
25:08
Speaker 10: I don't think we can hold our breath on that.
25:11
Speaker 10: I mean, the talks going on now that are moving
25:13
Speaker 10: forward are talks between Iran and Oman. It's unclear where
25:17
Speaker 10: the US is on those talks, except in all likelihood
25:21
Speaker 10: the best deal we get is going to be reopening
25:25
Speaker 10: the straight with Iran having more control over it than
25:28
Speaker 10: it did prior to this war. And for all the
25:31
Speaker 10: President's bluster, and if you listen to the Iranian media,
25:35
Speaker 10: you can hear the way in which they are making
25:39
Speaker 10: fun of the president for all of his bluster, How
25:43
Speaker 10: can we attack Iran if we don't have the defensive
25:47
Speaker 10: missiles to defend ourselves, our soldiers, our assets, and our
25:50
Speaker 10: allies in the region. We simply can't. The President knows that.
25:54
Speaker 10: So sure, we could use dumber weapons, but when you
25:57
Speaker 10: use dumber weapons, that means you send US forces, US
26:02
Speaker 10: military soldiers potentially closer to Iran. And the President knows
26:07
Speaker 10: we cannot get in a ground war with Iran. The
26:10
Speaker 10: President's hands are tied on this. He doesn't like the word.
26:12
Speaker 10: This is truly a quagmire. And his best bet is
26:17
Speaker 10: going to be getting this straight reopened, easing some of
26:20
Speaker 10: these sanctions on Iran if we need to, and trying
26:23
Speaker 10: to press forward on a nuclear deal. And he'll be
26:25
Speaker 10: lucky if it's anywhere close to what the Obama deal
26:28
Speaker 10: looked like that he rescinded. I mean, this is truly
26:31
Speaker 10: a disaster. Foreign policy for the President at a time
26:35
Speaker 10: when he has in five months gotten our munition's capacity
26:38
Speaker 10: as low as it is that we are now vulnerable
26:41
Speaker 10: around the world, as are the Ukrainians who are depending
26:44
Speaker 10: on us to assist there.
26:47
Speaker 3: Maura, we have less than a minute left. But when
26:49
Speaker 3: it comes to the war in Iran, if Senators are
26:53
Speaker 3: able to get out of town today in the House
26:54
Speaker 3: obviously has been out of town, what are they all
26:56
Speaker 3: going to hear about it at home, wondering.
26:59
Speaker 9: Why the gas price are where they are and what
27:01
Speaker 9: the plan is. I think there's a lack of understanding
27:03
Speaker 9: about what the plan is. And Gene just laid out
27:06
Speaker 9: what you know she thinks is the best case scenario
27:07
Speaker 9: for an outcome here. But there really is been no
27:11
Speaker 9: semblance of an idea of what we would want to
27:13
Speaker 9: get out of this and what we would would But
27:15
Speaker 9: what President says we are getting out of it, right,
27:17
Speaker 9: I think that he and Segretary Hegseth have not delivered
27:19
Speaker 9: a clear masters to the American people, and members of
27:21
Speaker 9: Congress are going to hear it all right.
27:25
Speaker 3: Mara Gillespie and Jeanie Shanzo our political panel on this Friday,
27:29
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. For joining us.
27:32
Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
27:34
Speaker 2: more coming up after this.
27:39
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch
27:42
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27:45
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27:49
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27:58
Speaker 3: And as we've been discussing a lot balance of power
28:01
Speaker 3: in recent weeks and months due to the ongoing conflict
28:04
Speaker 3: with Iran and the increasing focus that has been put
28:07
Speaker 3: on the United States's military capabilities and supplies of critical munitions,
28:13
Speaker 3: a really important conversation happened earlier today with the US
28:16
Speaker 3: Secretary of the Army, who sat down with our colleague
28:19
Speaker 3: Tyler Kendall Joe to talk about effectively what the Army
28:22
Speaker 3: is trying to do to speed things along in terms
28:24
Speaker 3: of not only getting these things produced but also testing them.
28:29
Speaker 3: Is they try to brace themselves for the wars of
28:31
Speaker 3: the future, wars as we're seeing in the present that
28:35
Speaker 3: include more and more drone technology that of course is
28:38
Speaker 3: cheaper than what a lot of our interceptors have been
28:42
Speaker 3: costing to this point.
28:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is all about accelerating the procurement process and
28:47
Speaker 2: by way of testing, this is one way they can
28:50
Speaker 2: get to that. There are a lot of different ways
28:52
Speaker 2: that we'll be talking about expanding the defense industrial base,
28:56
Speaker 2: but testing these new ideas and this new equips and
29:00
Speaker 2: is awfully important right now. So the Army is opening
29:02
Speaker 2: up Kayley five ranges to private industry for testing drones,
29:06
Speaker 2: counter drone technology, other weapons we probably haven't even heard
29:09
Speaker 2: of yet. And yes, Tyler got on an airplane and
29:12
Speaker 2: she flew to Michigan to sit down with the Secretary
29:15
Speaker 2: of the Army, Dan Driskoll. They sat down at one
29:17
Speaker 2: of those training facilities called Camp Grailing, it's an Army
29:20
Speaker 2: base in Grailing, Michigan, to talk about this new program.
29:24
Speaker 4: Let's watch it.
29:25
Speaker 11: Listen.
29:26
Speaker 12: This is a really big deal. It was a couple
29:29
Speaker 12: of months ago. I was out at one of our
29:31
Speaker 12: test ranges and what I heard was that industry on
29:35
Speaker 12: average was having to wait between twelve and eighteen months
29:38
Speaker 12: sometimes from the moment they wanted to get on our
29:40
Speaker 12: test range until we could give them access. And fundamentally,
29:44
Speaker 12: the problem with this is if you think of these
29:46
Speaker 12: innovative companies. If you think of the primes, everyone needs
29:49
Speaker 12: to be able to test their product, and they need
29:51
Speaker 12: to be able to learn from that. And the innovation
29:53
Speaker 12: loop that comes from actually using your thing in the
29:56
Speaker 12: real world is makes all the difference. And so when
29:59
Speaker 12: we slow things down in the innovation loop by twelve
30:02
Speaker 12: or eighteen months at a time, that is just bad
30:04
Speaker 12: for soldiers, it's bad for taxpayers, and it's bad for companies.
30:07
Speaker 12: And so what we're announcing today is basically a new
30:10
Speaker 12: front door to access all of the US Armies or
30:13
Speaker 12: many of the US Armies ranges. We're layering in international partners.
30:17
Speaker 12: We're going to give concierge access, and we are going
30:19
Speaker 12: to aspire to get these companies onto our arrange within
30:22
Speaker 12: thirty days every single time.
30:24
Speaker 11: So then after they're on that range, I think a
30:26
Speaker 11: lot of these companies are probably wondering how quickly can
30:28
Speaker 11: they get into business with the US Army. If you
30:31
Speaker 11: like what you see, how do those purchases work from there?
30:34
Speaker 11: What sort of timeline are you eyeing for that?
30:36
Speaker 12: So under President Trump, what we've been able to do
30:39
Speaker 12: is we've been able to reallocate dollars we already had,
30:42
Speaker 12: and so we created almost a seven hundred and fifty
30:44
Speaker 12: million dollar venturelike model that has allowed us to get
30:48
Speaker 12: industry on contracts sometimes in under thirty days. That is unbelievable.
30:53
Speaker 12: I mean, I think if you looked historically, the fastest
30:56
Speaker 12: time I had heard anyone ever reference was like nine months,
30:58
Speaker 12: but on average it could be up two years sometimes.
31:01
Speaker 12: And so our commitment to industry is we know that
31:04
Speaker 12: they need dollars from the US Army in order to
31:06
Speaker 12: continue their innovation. We know that if we're asking them
31:09
Speaker 12: to come out and spend time with soldiers, get their
31:12
Speaker 12: products in the dirt and the mud, and to innovate,
31:14
Speaker 12: we have got to be there for them on the
31:16
Speaker 12: other side with actual hard dollars.
31:17
Speaker 11: How are current conflicts highlighting the need for initiatives like
31:22
Speaker 11: this and for the US Army to scale?
31:24
Speaker 12: Is there a new urgency here? I think if you
31:27
Speaker 12: look at what's occurring in Ukraine, they have this existential
31:30
Speaker 12: risk to their nation that allows them to innovate very quickly.
31:34
Speaker 12: You would never want to have that risk as a nation.
31:36
Speaker 12: So what we're trying to do is synthetically create the
31:40
Speaker 12: conditions for innovation that can get as close to matching
31:43
Speaker 12: that environment as possible. And so one of the things
31:46
Speaker 12: we're doing here at Camp Gradling at September is we're
31:49
Speaker 12: creating an electronic warfare in a ew environment that is
31:52
Speaker 12: as close to what Ukraine has as we can create.
31:55
Speaker 12: We're inviting in small, medium, and large businesses from across
31:58
Speaker 12: our country. We're having soldiers come down. We are trying
32:01
Speaker 12: to empower these incredible American innovators to do what they
32:06
Speaker 12: do best, which is to out innovate the rest of
32:08
Speaker 12: the world.
32:09
Speaker 11: So the Army lives off of annual budgets, right, how
32:13
Speaker 11: do you ensure that you're able to scale and grow
32:15
Speaker 11: initiatives like this? And what is I think it's fair
32:17
Speaker 11: to say a pretty unpredictable funding cycle and how much
32:21
Speaker 11: weight maybe does that put on the sixty seven billion
32:24
Speaker 11: dollar Fundamental Supplemental package in terms of what the Army
32:28
Speaker 11: needs to get done.
32:29
Speaker 12: So the quirk of the design of our democratic form
32:33
Speaker 12: of government is our funding is annual, it is oftentimes
32:37
Speaker 12: continuing resolutions, which means we can't do new starts on
32:40
Speaker 12: our spending, and that is full stop bad for soldiers,
32:44
Speaker 12: that is bad for our national security, and we must
32:46
Speaker 12: as a nation fix it. That being said, what we
32:49
Speaker 12: have tried to do is just accept that that has
32:51
Speaker 12: been the reality. I think eighteen of the last twenty
32:54
Speaker 12: one years we've had continuing resolutions, and so what the
32:56
Speaker 12: United States Army has been trying to do under Secretary
32:59
Speaker 12: hex leadership is innovative as fast as humanly possible with
33:03
Speaker 12: what we do have, and we feel very good that
33:07
Speaker 12: working with Congress and Senate and consolidating down some of
33:10
Speaker 12: our budget line items, we are getting more flexibility than
33:12
Speaker 12: we have had in the last couple of years, not
33:14
Speaker 12: as much as we had a couple of decades ago,
33:16
Speaker 12: and we are taking that and earning back the trust
33:19
Speaker 12: of Congress to give us even more going forward.
33:21
Speaker 11: But is that putting any more weight on the supplemental
33:23
Speaker 11: funding request the sixty seven billion dollars.
33:26
Speaker 12: I think we need the supplemental, we need the reconciliation,
33:29
Speaker 12: and we need the budget to be passed on time
33:32
Speaker 12: that will lead to the most secure country that the
33:35
Speaker 12: United States Army can possibly give it.
33:38
Speaker 11: So today is a lot about these low cost interceptors, drones,
33:42
Speaker 11: counter drones. Can you talk to me about how you
33:44
Speaker 11: assess what that mix should look like when it comes
33:47
Speaker 11: to the higher end interceptors in US stockpiles.
33:51
Speaker 12: So one of the big takeaways from Ukraine is the
33:55
Speaker 12: very first thing you must do is create a data layer.
33:58
Speaker 12: And what you want in your data layers you want
34:00
Speaker 12: as many sensors and radars as humanly possible, and you
34:04
Speaker 12: want them to be able to fuse into tracks and
34:06
Speaker 12: so practically what that means is you want to be
34:08
Speaker 12: able to give yourself and your allies as much warning
34:11
Speaker 12: as humanly possible. And so with the United States Army
34:13
Speaker 12: has been focused on in the last couple of months
34:15
Speaker 12: is what we're calling Operation jail Break, which is basically
34:18
Speaker 12: we have said we are no longer going to allow
34:20
Speaker 12: any sensor, any radar, any piece of equipment that we
34:24
Speaker 12: own to have data that is siloed. All of it
34:27
Speaker 12: is getting broken out, and all of it, through APIs
34:29
Speaker 12: and SDKs, is going to be able to share the
34:31
Speaker 12: data and receive data or actions. That is step one.
34:35
Speaker 12: Every new thing we're buying is already open source, so
34:37
Speaker 12: we're good. So once we have this data layer, and
34:40
Speaker 12: anywhere American soldiers exist, we want that data layer to
34:42
Speaker 12: be as robust as humanly possible. The next step is
34:46
Speaker 12: to layer in effectors or interceptors, and you want as
34:49
Speaker 12: wide of a range of options as possible. On the cheapest,
34:53
Speaker 12: lowest side, you want a fifty col round that might
34:56
Speaker 12: cost a dollar, and you want to be able to
34:57
Speaker 12: shoot that at something that's really close. On the highest end,
35:00
Speaker 12: you might want to pack three that's now four point
35:03
Speaker 12: two million dollars or four point four million dollars a shot.
35:06
Speaker 12: The key to defense, and this layered concept is you
35:10
Speaker 12: want as many options as humanly possible, all tied into
35:13
Speaker 12: an agentic solution with a human in the loop that
35:16
Speaker 12: can choose between the right option at any given moment.
35:18
Speaker 12: And so the answer is, actually there's no one perfect answer.
35:22
Speaker 12: Variability is the key to success for conflict going forward.
35:27
Speaker 11: In the final minute that I have you, how much
35:29
Speaker 11: will initiatives like today compress timelines? Can you give us
35:33
Speaker 11: any context on how many years you're looking at when
35:36
Speaker 11: it comes to the army building up.
35:38
Speaker 12: The stock piles. So I think if you take the
35:41
Speaker 12: math of what we believe for a lot of these
35:44
Speaker 12: most exquisite interceptors and most exquisite offensive weapons, if it
35:48
Speaker 12: was taking twelve to eighteen months each time to come
35:50
Speaker 12: to the range, and we're consolidating that down to I
35:54
Speaker 12: am saying guarantee, but I don't mean we will pay
35:56
Speaker 12: if we miss. But that is what we hold ourselves
35:58
Speaker 12: publicly accountable. If you can get to the range every
36:01
Speaker 12: thirty days, what we hope to do is cut out
36:03
Speaker 12: at least a third of the R and D time,
36:06
Speaker 12: which will make a huge difference for soldiers.
36:09
Speaker 3: All right, That is Army Secretary Dan Driscoll sitting down
36:11
Speaker 3: with our colleague Tyler Kendall in Michigan earlier today.
36:18
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
36:21
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36:25
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