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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sassfin
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Security, sometimes in Johannesburg at the moment in
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Manhattan, enjoying the sunshine, the culture, the Knicks supporters going mad,
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and of course the
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enduring World Cup, David.
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I have to start with this.
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I mean, it's no self-indulgent of us because not everyone likes football or
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soccer.
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But it is fun, isn't it?
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I'm having such a good time.
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I'm growing into it.
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I think the I sit down and I start to watch.
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Look, and I have no special interest in any of the teams, you know, other than
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maybe England and France
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and Bafana, Bafana, whatever it is.
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But, I mean, overall, I've just enjoyed the support.
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And they've been clever in the sense that they're using football stadiums.
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In this case, I'm talking about American football stadium, which is superb.
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I mean, they all knew, you know, the clubs are all rich and they're in big cities and
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they're
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filling the grounds.
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But I think the fans are having an incredible time.
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And I have to tell you what's been making headlines over the weekend is that in
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Boston, where all the Scots
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are, you know, supporting the team, they're all hanging around in Boston.
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They've run out of beer, literally.
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Or when I say there were pubs that ran out of beer and had to make some urgent
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orders.
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And the funniest story is that they are consuming on a daily basis more than is
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consumed on St.
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Patrick's Day in Boston.
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And St.
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Patrick's Day, I mean, that's where all the Irish emigrated and gathered and still
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has a very
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strong Irish culture.
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But these chaps have just broken all records.
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But it gives you and there's no incidences.
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You know what I mean?
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Everything is in good fun.
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There haven't been any reports of crime or anything around like that.
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But it's been great.
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I really have.
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I've really enjoyed it.
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There is a bit of an Americanization, you know, of the World Cup, but I think we can
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live through that.
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Yes, I think we can.
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There's been some good stories on the pitch as well, but we'll get to that
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later.
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Meanwhile, the markets carry on, David.
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They're stalling a little bit.
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I mean, it's summer, for goodness sake.
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Yesterday was the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere with the summer
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solstice.
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So it's officially summer.
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Everyone's on holiday, I would imagine.
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I don't know whether it's kids' holidays in America or not, but certainly the
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markets have got a holiday feel about them.
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And the news is really dominated by...
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on-off ceasefires which never last for more than 12 hours, talks in Switzerland
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where J.D.
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Vance gets sent by Trump to go and talk to the Iranians.
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And as he gets there, Trump starts rattling off these ghastly social media
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messages and the Iranians walk out.
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So it's almost as though he wants J.D.
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Vance, his vice president, to look stupid.
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He doesn't want him to succeed because that's his horrible nature.
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And that's it.
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And the oil price.
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I can't really see any other big news, not unless you're a real AI tech fanatic
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like Viv, for example.
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No.
3:29
You know, what you're talking about now is dominating the headlines.
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What I found very interesting now, tomorrow on the 23rd, are the primaries.
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They hold the primaries for...
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for the midterm election.
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So you've got the Democrat party primaries, you've got the Republican party
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primaries.
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These are for House representatives or the Senate.
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I'm following mainly because I follow the local news.
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This is all within New York, which is generally a blue state, and Democrats are
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expected to
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win.
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They always have.
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Traditionally, they have.
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Lindsay, what I'm finding very interesting is, number one, I think the issues are all
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around affordability.
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You know, and they continue to be.
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What I've never understood, and I think maybe people outside of America don't
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understand this,
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but you always have candidates.
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A lot of their success depends on how much money they raise.
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Now, that's outside of our realm.
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you know, when it comes to the Westminster system, you know.
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The parties might raise money and you might have the Tories or the Labour Party,
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whoever it is, putting up posters.
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Here, it's adverts on TV.
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But, I mean, they come at a pace, you know, one after the other of all the
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candidates.
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uh stumping or whatever they call it or uh electioneering putting their messages
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across but you need
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money if you haven't got those that money you're not reaching people you know and i
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think a lot i
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didn't realize how much comes through television and just how intensely uh you
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know fear
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uh it's a very fierce battle so and this is within each party as we've seen before
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in primaries, and that's taking place.
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But bottom line, I think that Trump has come out of this whole Iran
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debacle severely weakened, and the Republicans as well.
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I think they've lost a lot of faith, faith and faith, and I think
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that he's going to have a lot of trouble in the midterms.
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It's not only that, you know, people are trying to question, why did he go in?
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You know, what was the whole purpose?
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There doesn't seem to be an end result.
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Whatever he aimed to do in the beginning, he's kind of backtracked on.
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So I think that's, you know what I mean?
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I think he's coming out severely damaged.
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The Republicans are fighting.
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That's why I think you've got Vance taking on Rubio, because Rubio is the one person,
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I think, within the Republicans that seemed
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to party.
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That seems to have maintained his position.
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People like him.
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They want him for president and so on.
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But I think the midterms are going to be very interesting.
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Probably the Democrats.
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Answer me this question because I obviously look at very liberal left-wing
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commentators mostly.
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If I see the right-wing.
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the right wing rhetoric i i get a bit annoyed i get angry and that's not good
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for me so i i stick to the left wing ones and i
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nod i nod away and in very what's the word i'm looking for it begins with an in i'm
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i'm sort of anyway
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it doesn't matter i can't think of the word but i i i i'm i'm nodding away and
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saying yes this is exactly right and surely everybody
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else can see that everybody else can see that he's had a go at georgia maloney the
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E.
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Italian prime minister.
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He's accused people falsely of vandalising his reflecting pool in Washington, whereas
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really it was just a bloke who did his swimming pool at one of his golf clubs and
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he said, OK, you can do it.
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You get on with it because you're a Trump supporter.
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And it's been a complete failure, that reflecting pool painting and resurfacing
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and everything.
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And he gets people arrested.
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I said, does the average voter, does the average MAGA voter have a look at this as
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well and say
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This chap, we voted for him, but we were wrong and we're going to vote in a
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different way in the primaries coming up in November.
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Or do they not see it, David?
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Look, I'm in New York.
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So I can't get the feel from the people
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outside of the blue states, which are on the northeastern side of it.
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But I think the criticism that comes through, I think, is quite severe.
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even from his MAGA supporters.
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When I listen to interviews that they hold, you know, they'll interview voters,
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it's about us.
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What's us?
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The Immigration Customs Enforcement, you know, those tips who are sending back all
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the illegal immigrants, putting
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them in detention centers.
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There's huge issues around that.
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People are very angry, particularly...
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There's a massive Spanish-speaking community here.
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I mean, New York, you hear more Spanish than English.
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But still, I pick it up on the ABC, CBS, Spectrum.
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That's Spectrum One.
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There are three stations that I watch here, which is mainly focused on New York.
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And you pick up and everything is around, nothing around Iran.
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You know, you don't even hear that kind of news.
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It's all around us, interest rates, cost of food, cost of gas, things of that
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nature, housing, unaffordable housing, and so on.
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And I think those are the issues that are swaying voters.
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Some of them say, we don't care whether he's a Republican or a Democrat.
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These are our issues.
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Anybody who stands up for us on those, we will vote for.
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But when it comes to the broader issues, on the whole Iran, when that's discussed,
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I think there's
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puzzlement over where we are now, what has come out, what he's done.
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So you're talking about Trump as well.
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I think he's isolated his allies, and I think America feels...
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I think Americans feel, you won't see it at the World Cup.
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You know, chaps will come here to watch football from all around the world.
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You won't pick it up from those supporters and that.
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But I think generally people are really offended by the way that he's treated his
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allies and seems to be now
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all of a sudden treating the Iranians far better than he treats his those people who
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have supported him.
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It is a strange situation, David.
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But again, the markets are remarkably good.
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at ignoring these things, brushing them off.
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They're remarkably good also of having a look at certain analyses from a major
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financial institution,
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for example, Bank of America, who came out today and said that they don't think that
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there'll be an interest rate cut in the United States of America until
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2028, for goodness sake.
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I mean, that's a year and a half away at best.
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So the market just keeps on going on.
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I'm looking at the September S&P futures, close to 7,600.
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I mean, that is unbelievable.
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The Dow Jones consolidating above 50,000, the Nasdaq powering on with two more
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trillion dollar listings in the offing,
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and Elon Musk worth 1.22 trillion US dollars today.
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That's an unfathomable number and situation that we're confronted with.
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This is history in the making, David.
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It is.
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You know, I think, I've tried to think this through, and we, you know, we have to
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think it through because
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You're handling other people's money.
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And I think we might have discussed this very briefly on Thursday with Viv.
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But with Walsh, that's the new did you see Alan Greenspan die?
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Yes, at the age of 100.
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He was an interesting fellow.
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Yeah.
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But just by the by.
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But, I mean, with Kevin Walsh, I think that took the market off guard.
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Yeah.
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They were, at the beginning of the year, we were expecting interest rate
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reductions, maybe one, maybe two, whatever it was
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going into next year as well.
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And of course, that's not going to happen.
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And as you say, 28.
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So we have to adjust your sights.
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You have to say, hold on, all those companies that we thought we could buy
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because rates were going to come down, consumers would
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have more money, not going to happen.
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And that would include kind of banking shares other than those who are involved
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in...
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M&A mergers and acquisitions and IPOs, you know, raising money for companies and so
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on.
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So you've got to be very careful about where you go.
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AI is still a very dominant thing.
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And it's broadening, Lindsay, that's why.
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It's broadening away from, you know, what chat GPT and anthropic.
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It's going into a whole lot of other areas.
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And we've seen that with the memory chips and so on.
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We're going into a period of...
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robotics.
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I'm talking about factory robotics, AI factory-driven robotics and things like
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that.
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I think this theme is going to extend itself.
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I think it will be the dominant theme outside of going back into those old
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traditional
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value shares, Record and Bank Kaiser or Unilever or Procter & Gamble.
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Those kind of things, I think, are the past.
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I would include ABN Bevs and the British American Tobaccos and Philip Morrisons.
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They'll all bumble along and do okay.
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It doesn't matter whether it's AI generated or not someone's life.
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They still have to put on a Johnson's baby lotion occasionally, David.
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But there's competition.
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I think that's why I, Lindsay, I went to a Costco store in Boston.
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And I mean, that was something else.
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I have never seen an operation like this.
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Charlie Munger used to say this was his best company.
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And for years and years, he pushed it.
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He was a director.
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And I've never seen a store like this.
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You know, I've seen smaller Costco stores.
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But this was, I can't, I think an airplane hanger is too small to describe this shop.
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Really?
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You know, it's massive.
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And you buy everything.
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The TVs are stacked up.
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Whatever you want is stacked up there in big, big quantities.
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And you take these massive.
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trolleys.
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They don't give you plastic bags or paper bags.
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The size of a Fiat 500 or something you're wheeling around there.
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That's it.
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And you fill up whatever you want.
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Meat, vegetables.
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If you go into the vegetable part of it, it's a room.
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It's a cold room.
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Not a couple of display cabinets or anything like this.
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Frozen display cabinets.
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No, no.
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This is a room and you go there and the carrots and the grapes and everything is
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just stacked, you know, and you buy
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in vast quantities.
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And, you know, it's on the basis you buy membership.
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And through that membership that entitles you entry, you know, you've got to show
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your membership card.
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But it's like the macro story on that.
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But everybody, it doesn't cost a lot, so many dollars a year.
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But, Lindsay, that's what I'm saying.
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These are the companies that will benefit because they're at the bottom end of the
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market.
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So you can buy everything from clothing to food in great quantities.
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And I think this Walmart, those kind of businesses, are going to be the ones that
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will come out as the
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beneficiaries at a time where people are very worried about their wallets and
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counting their cents.
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So what you're saying is something that we said or something that I said.
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I have to say, I have to take claim for this when talking to you and Viv, I said
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there's going to be a two-tier market and there's going to be a
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two-tier economy.
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There's more than ever, there's going to be Main Street versus Wall Street,
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billionaires versus
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low-income workers, because that's what you're saying.
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And in the middle...
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the poor old middle class left flailing around.
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Yes, exactly right.
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I know.
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You know, it might not be socially acceptable, if that's at all, you know,
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from an economic point of view,
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the Bernie Saunders and people like that, but that's what's going to happen.
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You do.
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So you saw with SpaceX, and you mentioned the raising of Capital Anthropic and other
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companies, there is so much money.
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floating around, so much investable money, and that's going to find its way into the
16:30
market and maintain it.
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You know, we all worried about SpaceX, but the market absorbed it.
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You know, it's coming down now.
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You know, there's a bit of selling, and correctly so.
16:40
I mean, it was ridiculously priced.
16:43
But whatever.
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You know, the money is there, and it will go into growth stocks.
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It will go into AI.
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And when I say you've got to accept it, don't trough out the market.
16:57
No.
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You know.
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Okay.
17:01
One other thing for the future, David, is the weather.
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And you can say, oh, please, it's just a cycle.
17:06
And you can be a climate change denialist like our friend Donald Trump.
17:11
But it's getting worse and worse.
17:13
I mean, what's happening where I am at the moment in the north of the Netherlands,
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it's 35 degrees, David.
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It's 35 degrees.
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It's never been 35 degrees in history before.
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It's minus 15 in winter.
17:27
And the rainfall, yeah, there's a lot of rainfall, but it comes in concentrated
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spurts.
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So you'll have hot weather, then you'll get this massive thunderstorm where this
17:38
intense rain and hailstorm comes down.
17:40
And that doesn't do the crops any good.
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It doesn't do the soil any good.
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It doesn't do human beings any good either.
17:46
So something's changing there.
17:48
I saw a YouTube presentation the other day about London and how London's houses were
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built
17:55
decades ago and their blocks of flats were built decades ago.
17:59
They cannot cope with the heat in summer.
18:02
They cannot cope with really, really wet winters, which is what they're getting
18:06
now.
18:07
They're leaking and they're boiling in summer, et cetera.
18:10
Climate change, it may not mean much to us now, but future investors are going to
18:14
have to look at this and say, what is going to
18:17
benefit?
18:17
and what is going to be a detractor from your portfolio because of what is
18:22
happening.
18:23
And it is getting very severe.
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38 degrees in London, David, forecast for Wednesday.
18:27
That's what it is unheard of because it's never been done before.
18:30
I hate it.
18:32
I can't disagree with you.
18:34
I don't think we should take it lightly.
18:36
I'm not a scientist.
18:38
I don't understand these things.
18:40
But you're mentioning stories, and yes, they're the deniers.
18:45
but um i i And that's why I'm saying electric vehicles and things like that and
18:54
rebuilding houses, re-engineering buildings or building green
19:00
buildings today are going to be very, very important and also the consumption of
19:06
energy.
19:07
So, yeah, Lindsay, I think where we're getting at or where I'm trying to get at
19:13
is
19:14
saying, look, You can't take the past for granted.
19:17
You know, you can't look backwards and say, these are great companies.
19:21
There are, you know what I mean?
19:22
You've got to continually look at where we're going, where investment's going,
19:28
what the world's going to look
19:29
like, and you have to position yourself like that.
19:32
You can't, that's why I'm very skeptical of a number of companies.
19:37
When I look at the JSC particularly, and it's not only the JSC.
19:41
It applies to a lot of European markets and certainly to UK markets as well.
19:47
They're old economy stocks.
19:49
They're old economies.
19:51
And you've got to look to see how they're going to adapt to what's going to be a
19:56
very fast-moving
19:59
world.
19:59
By fast-moving, I mean technologically.
20:02
So those things, you know, what you're bringing up are absolutely right.
20:06
You can't just say, you know, and there again, I'm starting to question, oh, this
20:11
is a high dividend yield, this is on
20:13
a low PE, you know, all the ways that we used to look and say, oh, back in 1929,
20:19
and you
20:20
know, this happened here, this is how the Dow was, and so things have changed so
20:25
dramatically, the way that money
20:27
flows, the way that people value companies, the way they look at it.
20:30
I think you've.
20:31
You've got to keep your mind open all the time.
20:34
Keep looking.
20:36
So it's important.
20:38
Yeah, exactly.
20:38
There are big megatrends that are coming.
20:41
The shift of populations, for example, there will be certain places on Earth that
20:44
are currently habitated and
20:49
will become uninhabitable in the future because of the heat.
20:51
It may be somewhere in India, which is currently hitting highs of the high 40s,
20:56
even 50 degrees.
20:57
You just can't live there.
20:58
So there will be population shifts.
21:00
There will be massive social and socioeconomic disruption because of
21:05
climate change.
21:06
But David, you're not going to be around, unfortunately, mate.
21:12
You're not going to have to worry about it.
21:13
You're just going to have to get another fan for your apartment.
21:16
But I've seen it in my own world.
21:17
I've seen it in the time that I've been on the stock exchange.
21:20
The dramatic changes.
21:22
And I keep saying I entered the stock exchange in 1972.
21:25
We communicated with our counterparts in the UK by coded telegrams.
21:31
You know, we never had direct dialing.
21:34
Do you know what I mean?
21:34
You couldn't pick up a phone.
21:36
Now you're on the internet.
21:38
So I'm saying within my own lifetime, I've seen massive, massive changes.
21:43
And those businesses that we admired in those days are long gone.
21:48
And the same thing's going to happen.
21:51
I think, in fact, we're moving a lot faster than that.
21:54
Things have changed so much.
21:55
And we mustn't underestimate.
21:59
the importance of, firstly, the internet, and secondly, AI and social media.
22:04
Social media, in my opinion, is the reason that Great Britain has had seven prime
22:10
ministers
22:11
in ten years.
22:12
It's like being in post-war Italy, living in the United Kingdom, or being someone
22:18
from the United Kingdom.
22:19
There's a new one coming in a few weeks' time in the form of Andy Burnham, now that
22:25
Keir Starmer has...
22:26
has resigned.
22:27
And it's because of social media.
22:29
People are saying things that they would never have said.
22:32
In the old days, when you were around, David, you used to get up in the morning
22:36
and get your business day, right?
22:38
Or whatever daily newspaper you favoured.
22:41
And you'd get it and you'd read it and think, oh, look at that, look what
22:44
happened, Alan Greenspan died.
22:45
Meanwhile, it's two days late because Alan Greenspan died on Saturday or whatever it
22:51
was, and you would have known on
22:52
Saturday or Sunday We went in.
22:54
whenever the date was of his death.
22:56
But you see what I mean?
22:57
You know things instantaneously.
22:59
You can comment instantaneously.
23:01
You see other people's instantaneous thoughts that haven't really been thought
23:05
out, and it makes a movement.
23:07
There's a movement towards the right wing in the UK.
23:09
A party like Reform didn't exist three years ago, and now it's the leading
23:16
party in the UK because of social media.
23:19
It disturbs me greatly, David.
23:21
I know.
23:22
No, of course.
23:23
But you can't ignore it.
23:25
And if you want to survive in this world or prosper, you've got to learn to embrace
23:30
it.
23:31
That's it.
23:32
And it's repugnant.
23:33
I mean, you can see it by the way that Trump announced Starmer's resignation
23:38
before Starmer
23:40
had told the British public.
23:42
Yes, he did yesterday afternoon at 3 o'clock.
23:44
Yeah, yeah.
23:47
I mean, and that's what's happened.
23:48
So, you know, we've got to get used to it.
23:52
You've got to, we, I mean, when I say me, I'm not a young person, but I have to
23:59
adapt
24:00
my life for what's happening.
24:02
If I don't embrace it, I just fall behind.
24:04
Lindsay, you have no idea what demands have made on people, you know,
24:12
on people today.
24:13
Filling out forms, for example.
24:15
They're all electronic, you know.
24:17
There's no such thing as going to a post office and taking a form and filling it
24:21
out and sending it in the post.
24:22
You know, forget it.
24:25
And I'm saying for older people who are not tech savvy, there's massive demands
24:30
being made, you know.
24:31
And everything is on an app now.
24:34
And, you know, you can't, you want to check into the book of flight.
24:39
You know, everybody's got their tickets on their phone.
24:41
They just tap and go, whatever it is, and so on.
24:45
Now, for older people, it's...
24:47
It's very disconcerting and it puts them out.
24:51
But you have to, that's what's going to happen.
24:53
They're not going to adapt the old system just so that you can survive.
24:59
They're looking at younger generations.
25:01
They're looking at speedier ways of cracking people and so on.
25:06
It's very daunting.
25:08
You can't relax.
25:09
Terrifying.
25:09
Not for a minute.
25:10
It is terrifying.
25:13
David, it's terrifying.
25:15
Anyway, the market's not terrifying.
25:19
It's good to a point now where at these elevated levels, you've got to pick and
25:22
choose.
25:23
You can't just blanket buy.
25:24
And we've spoken about this, but I'm sure you're just holding on until otherwise
25:30
advised.
25:30
Who's going to win the World Cup, David?
25:32
I don't know.
25:34
It's not that easy.
25:35
I haven't been.
25:36
I've got to see France again.
25:41
Even Netherlands, although they, I don't know, I don't think they were great.
25:46
I think their defence was very poor.
25:49
I've got to watch the UK again, England, sorry, not UK.
25:52
I've got to watch England again to see whether they can, you know, play to their
25:57
strengths.
25:58
So it's, you know, we'll know by the end, as we go into the third game, we'll begin
26:03
to see.
26:04
I don't know about Spain.
26:05
I I missed, it wasn't a good show.
26:08
I mean, you know, you can't just walk through there.
26:13
So I'm watching.
26:15
I haven't been impressed with Brazil.
26:17
You know, I don't know Argentina.
26:19
We're going to see them again and again.
26:21
You know, Messi, the first game was just a walk over.
26:23
It wasn't all that difficult.
26:24
But let's see.
26:26
But interesting.
26:28
Yes, there's no clear favourites.
26:29
There's several that could do it.
26:31
France looked incredible in the second half.
26:33
The Netherlands came from.
26:34
from a poor performance against Japan to a relatively decent performance and
26:39
walloped.
26:39
Don't forget, they walloped a team that had beaten their previous opponent,
26:43
Tunisia 5-1 in Sweden.
26:45
I mean, Sweden were confident, and the Netherlands just blew them away.
26:49
They weren't bad, Sweden.
26:51
They just started badly.
26:52
They were 2-0 down, and they couldn't get back.
26:55
And they missed.
26:56
You know what's upset me about this whole World Cup?
26:59
And I'm not Messi excluded and Mbappé excluded.
27:04
But.
27:04
The quality of shooting, the quality of the centre forwards, I'm using the old
27:08
traditional term, the striker, has been really poor,
27:12
really poor.
27:14
You get the set-up in front of the goals and it flies.
27:17
It flies into the stands.
27:19
They blame the ball.
27:21
The ball's too light.
27:21
That's what they're blaming.
27:22
Of course they are.
27:24
I don't know if they are, but that's what they're blaming.
27:26
I agree with you.
27:27
You get paid.
27:28
That's what they do, David.
27:28
Seven days a week.
27:29
That's what they're paid for.
27:31
Seven days a week.
27:32
It's not as if in the old days, you know, you'd be the local butcher and you'd play
27:36
for the team on a Saturday or something like that in certain
27:39
leagues.
27:40
These people are doing it 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and they have
27:46
nutritionists and physios.
27:47
They roll the ball to them, yeah, and they kick it in the net.
27:51
Keep your head down, get your knee over the ball, and whack it, you idiot.
27:55
I mean, it's so easy.
27:56
No, very, very poor.
27:58
Very poor.
27:59
They're finishing, yeah.
28:01
All right.
28:02
Well, England won 4-2.
28:04
Do you know the last time they won an international match?
28:07
Obviously, 4-2.
28:08
Do you know the last time that England won a game 4-2?
28:12
Before they beat, who did they beat, Croatia last week, 4-2?
28:16
1966 World Cup final.
28:19
They beat Germany 4-2.
28:20
That was the last time.
28:22
So that's a sign.
28:24
I've been to see my spiritual healer.
28:28
my fortune teller, and she told me.
28:31
Well, I've got a whole afternoon today.
28:36
David, thank you very much for your time.
28:37
Enjoy New York, and we'll speak on Thursday with Viv Govender.
28:41
That was David Shapiro from Saturn Securities, and that was Shapiro World.
28:44
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28:49
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