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Market Pulse: Tariffs, Tech, and The Fed · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome , astute investors and future financial titans , to Spy Trader !
• 0:05
  I'm your host , Cathy Capital , and it's 6 am on Monday , August 18th , 2025 , Pacific time .
• 0:12
  We're diving deep into the market's heartbeat , giving you the insights and recommendations you need to navigate these interesting times .
• 0:19
  Let's get to it!The US stock market is currently a bit of a mixed bag , but mostly on the sunny side .
• 0:26
  We've seen major indices hitting record highs recently .
• 0:30
  For instance , the Dow Jones Industrial Average just touched an alltime high of 45,283 on August 15th , surpassing its December 2024 record !
• 0:43
  Last week , the Dow gained 1.74% , outperforming the S&P 500's 0.94% gain and the Nasdaq 100's 0.43% .
• 0:57
  Yeartodate , the Nasdaq is up 10% , the S&P 500 has tacked on 7.8% , and the Dow's gained 3.4%.However , we saw a bit of caution creep in on Friday , August 15th , with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finishing lower , mainly due to weakness in chipmakers .
• 1:20
  And as we start our Monday , US stock futures are trading slightly lower , as investors are waiting for key retail earnings and signals from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium later this week .
• 1:32
  On the news front , President Trump's international tariffs are still a big topic .
• 1:38
  Some tariffs just kicked in on August 7th , adding to those in effect since spring 2025 .
• 1:45
  This has real impacts : Tapestry , the parent company of Coach , saw its shares plunge nearly 16% on August 14th after cutting its fiscal 2026 profit outlook due to an anticipated 160 million negative hit from these tariffs .
• 2:02
  On the flip side , companies like Amazon and Gap are actually benefiting as their competitors , Shein and Temu , face tougher times in the US because of these trade policies .
• 2:14
  Earnings season continues to give us plenty to chew on .
• 2:17
  The megacap tech players largely reported strong numbers .
• 2:21
  Apple rose over 4% on August 8th after committing to invest another 100 billion in US manufacturing .
• 2:29
  Alphabet , Tesla , Nvidia , and Meta Platforms also saw gains .
• 2:34
  Arista Networks absolutely crushed its Q2 results and significantly raised its fullyear 2025 outlook , driven by immense AI and cloud spending .
• 2:45
  Travel site Expedia and Monster Beverage also saw their shares jump postearnings .
• 2:51
  In other news , UnitedHealth Group saw a 12% rise on August 15th after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a major stake , helping the Dow's performance .
• 3:02
  On the flip side , Applied Materials plunged 14% on August 15th due to a weak outlook , while Intel gained 7.4% on reports that the Trump administration might take a stake in the chipmaker , amidst broader concerns about government export taxes on Nvidia and AMD .
• 3:21
  Keep an eye out this week for earnings from major retailers like Home Depot , Target , and Walmart , which will give us more insights into consumer health and the tariff impact .
• 3:33
  Looking at the broader economic picture , the US economy in August 2025 is quite a mosaic of slowing growth , persistent inflation , and a moderating job market , all heavily influenced by those ongoing trade policies .
• 3:48
  Inflation is a key factor .
• 3:50
  The Consumer Price Index , or CPI , rose 2.7% yearoveryear in July , which is actually the lowest annual rate since February 2021 .
• 4:02
  However , core CPI , which strips out volatile food and energy , accelerated to 3.1% in July , its highest level in five months .
• 4:11
  This rise in core CPI is largely attributed to the effect of Trump's tariffs , pushing up prices for imported goods , and we're seeing jumps in things like takeout , used cars , and housing .
• 4:25
  The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50% since December 2024 , but the market's expecting a rate cut at the next Fed meeting on September 17th .
• 4:39
  There's a 94% likelihood of a cut , up from 84% just before the latest inflation data , mainly because the overall CPI held steady and July's unemployment data was weaker than expected .
• 4:54
  We'll be listening closely to the Jackson Hole symposium from August 21st to 24th for more Fed signals .
• 5:01
  On the jobs front , things are moderating .
• 5:04
  May and June jobs figures were significantly lowered by 258,000 , and nonfarm payrolls in July rose by just 73,000 , which is contributing to a worrisome trend .
• 5:16
  The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% .
• 5:20
  GDP growth has been