Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 216 - 2/13/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 216 - 2/13/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 216 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week rolls on.
0:39
It's almost the weekend and you know what guys?
0:41
I'm getting sick of the snow because we got hit with another
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snowstorm. If you're like me in New England
0:46
on the outskirts of Boston. And it's not just that.
0:49
When I got back from New Mexico, I had to shovel out my driveway.
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Note to self, I need to buy a snow blower starting next year.
0:57
But anyway, we hit with another snowstorm and it's also freezing
1:00
rain, so not great. Makes me excited for baseball
1:05
and by the way, a big signing last night as the Red Sox sign
1:09
Alex Bregman, which I am ecstatic about, but gets me
1:14
excited for the spring. I got to look forward to
1:15
something. But we have a lot to talk about
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on today's podcast. Guys, I have a three pack of
1:20
sweats for you going to talk 3 college basketball games.
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All three short money line favorites here with some good
1:26
Ken Palm edges and bet splits and line moves.
1:28
Also rhythm is backing us up on all three 3 plays.
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So let's see if we can go 2 and one and eke out a winning night.
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But then also on the topic of baseball, I have my first MLB
1:38
win total to share with you guys.
1:40
I played it last night. It's moving a little bit.
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There's still one book hanging this very important number, but
1:46
I got a MLB win total to get excited about the spring as
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spring training started yesterday for most teams.
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And then also I have an NBA futures bet for you.
1:55
It's been a while. I should have jumped on SGA for
1:58
MVP earlier in the year, but there is a specific category, an
2:03
award here in terms of Rookie of the Year.
2:06
And I saw a big sharp move on this guy.
2:08
I actually saw him play last night.
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I looked at his stats and I said, you know what, we got a
2:12
really good split here at Bet MGM.
2:14
This guy's numbers have been on the move and he's still plus
2:17
money. So I'm going to share with you
2:19
my NBA futures bet that I placed last night on Rookie of the Year
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along with an Emily win total. And then as I mentioned, another
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college hoops night with three plays overall.
2:29
Now looking back toward yesterday, guys, a nice winning
2:32
night. 3 and 1 + 1.21 units. Had a nice hit there with Iowa
2:37
covering the number and winning outright, taking the points
2:40
there as a nice -110 spread dog there on the road.
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Iowa got it done and won outright against Rutgers.
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Also had a nice win with Winthrop who was down much of
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the game and really turned it on late.
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Hit some massive threes to give us a money line win there.
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And what I really liked was Navy.
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And this is another reason why we always money line short
2:59
favorites because Navy closed at -3 1/2.
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They won by three, but if you guys were watching that game,
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they're up five with like, I don't know, 5 seconds left.
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Kid on the other team has a layup there to make it 5 down to
3:13
three. And of course, I went on Twitter
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and I saw a bunch of people complaining.
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Oh, what a terrible, bad beat. Navy -3 1/2.
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Well, again, pay the extra juice.
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This is why we pay extra juice to protect ourselves in the
3:25
event of something crazy like that happening.
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Or maybe Navy was down a point and they hit a walk off shot to
3:31
win by 1. You cash your money line bet.
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So always money line. Short home favorites, a nice
3:36
little sweep and college hoops 3 and O and keeping us from a a
3:41
full sweep on the night, which was a little bit frustrating.
3:43
Was looking back toward that NBA total last night, the Grizzlies
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and the Clippers. I got under 237 1/2.
3:49
We even mentioned on the pod it had been falling down toward 236
3:53
and a half 236. It closed 235 1/2, even 235.
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So This is why to me, NBA is probably the hardest sport to
4:01
bet on. You have a great CLV, play like
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that, get under 237, half closes 235 1/2.
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What happens? It ends up going over there.
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So that was a bit frustrating, especially with the fact that
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John Marant was out and you thought, hey, big offensive guy
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not playing good for the under. Well, that's why the NBA is
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difficult. So either way, guys winning
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night 3 and 1 + 1.21 units will take it every single time.
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So that being said, let's starve it into some college basketball
4:27
plays for tonight and then we'll get to some futures bets in MLB
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and in the NBA. So I want to start off with a
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7:00 game tonight, Hofstra against William and Mary, Old
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Bill and Mary at home against Hofstra.
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Now looking at this game here, let's set the stage.
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Talk about some line movement system matches, bet splits and
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I'll give you my play coming into this one.
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We have Hofstra 12 and 13 on the year, but they've dropped three
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straight. Just felt the Stony Brook 80 to
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75. They were a 12 1/2 point home
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favorite. Lost out right.
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Meanwhile, Bill and Mary 14 and 11 on the year, but they've also
5:00
struggled a bit. They've lost two in a row.
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Just came up short against Delaware 74 to 64 didn't cover
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as a 1 1/2 point Rd. dog. So what have you seen across the
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market here? Well, William and Mary opened as
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a very short 1 1/2 point home favorite and sharps have jumped
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on Bill and Mary. Bill and Mary went from -1 1/2
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up to now -2 1/2. And I'm seeing some juice like
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it may even be getting to three. And what I love in particular
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about the William and Mary line move is if you look at Circa
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again, sharp book out in Vegas, always want to compare their
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bets. What's the DraftKings?
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But in particular at Circa, William and Mary is only getting
5:35
40% of spread bets, but 95% of spread dollars.
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That is a massive sharp bet split.
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When I saw the line move to William and Mary and then I
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dialed up my bet splits, which you can access from vson.com.
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I saw that 40 percent, 95%. I said, oh, let's go Bill and
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Mary. That looked really sharp.
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Told me that the sharps wise guys out in Vegas really like
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William and Mary in the spot. And I always like it when the
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line move really coincides with the bet splits.
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If you ever see a line move go one way, yet the bet splits look
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kind of like the opposite, that just tells me maybe there's some
6:06
some confusion in the market. You want everything to line up
6:08
in the same direction. Now, Ken Palm does have William
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and Mary winning, but only by two points.
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So they're -2 1/2 right now. That means it's a money line
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play for me. I got William and Mary at -140
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on the money line. Shop around because there are
6:22
some like -140 fives closer to -1 fifties out there.
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But in terms of the money line, if you'll get DraftKings,
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William and Mary 80% of money line bets over 95% of money line
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dollars. So it looks like some heavy one
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way support in favor of the tribe, William and Mary Tribe
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earning a straight up victory, hopefully on their homecourt.
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Now you dive into some of these metrics here, advanced
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analytics. William and Mary has the better
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offensive efficiency, a big edge here.
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They rank 139th in the country. Doesn't sound great, but Hofstra
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ranks 296th. So hopefully you got some
6:54
offense here to pace William and Mary.
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Better effective field goal percentage, 54% versus 49%.
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Better free throw shooting 74% versus 72%.
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And just look at the classic points per game.
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The Tribe are averaging nearly 80 points per game.
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Hofstra is averaging about 68 points per game.
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William and Mary. Also, if you can conference play
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again, how do you get up against your your your rivals and your
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conference opponents? Bill and Mary, eight and four in
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conference play. Hofstra 4:00 and 8:00.
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And then again, look at home Rd. William and Mary perfect 10 and
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O at home this year. Hofstra just four and six on the
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road. So we got a line move toward
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William and Mary. We got a great bet split.
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In particular at Circa, we have Ken Palm telling us they'll win
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this game. By the way, Rhythm has William
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and Mary -2.2 and we got some home Rd. conference play and
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some offensive analytics that really point toward William and
7:46
Mary. So my first bet of the night,
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guys. 7:00 Let's try to get Bill and Mary to come through for the
7:51
team. I'm on William and Mary money
7:53
line at -140 next one for you. 8:00 Game here tonight, the
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Kansas City ruse against South Dakota.
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Now Kansas City comes in 11 and 15 on the year.
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They did however just snap an 8 game losing streak.
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They beat North Dakota 80 to 69 covered as a 2 1/2 point home
8:12
favorite. Meanwhile, South Dakota 15 and
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10 on the year. They've won three straight
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playing pretty well, just beat Oral Roberts.
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Oral Bob 7574 didn't cover though as a 1 1/2 point Rd.
8:23
favorite. Now what do we see across the
8:25
market? Well, South Dakota open as a
8:27
very short 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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And even though this is a relatively low back game, we've
8:32
seen movement towards South Dakota at home.
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South Dakota went from -1 1/2 up to -2 some shops even juiced up
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going to 2 1/2. So just like that William and
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Mary line move. Same thing here where it's been
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all movement toward the home chalk.
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Now Draft Kings South Dakota is getting 74% of spread bets, 90%
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of spread dollars. So good Pro and Joe split there,
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but I would argue mostly sharp because it's a lower back game.
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Ken Palm, by the way, has South Dakota winning by two points,
9:00
which is basically right on the number.
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So of course, you guys know the drill.
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Just like getting a winner with Navy last night on the money
9:07
line where you would have lost laying the points.
9:09
There's the money line played for me on South Dakota.
9:11
I got him at -135 And if you look in particular DraftKings,
9:15
the Coyotes, South Dakota Coyotes are getting 82% of money
9:20
line bets, but over 97% of money line dollars, a really good low
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bets, higher dollars bet split. South Dakota has the better
9:28
offensive efficiency. They rank 114th in the country
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versus 266th for Kansas City, better effective field goal
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percentage, 51% versus 49%. And then also I noticed this,
9:40
and again when I just want to mention this and all these
9:42
analytics I give you, they're coming from kenpom.com.
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So again, you can just look at the fan match tab and you look
9:49
at the final score, click the final score.
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It'll give you all these side by side comparisons for all these
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stats. And I think Ken Palm is 20 bucks
9:56
a year for the membership, Extremely worth it.
9:59
But anyway, I noticed that South Dakota ranks 5th best in the
10:03
country at not turning it over versus Kansas City, ranking
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242nd. So hopefully we can turn over
10:09
Kansas City. Hopefully South Dakota takes
10:11
care of the ball. I look at offense, offensive
10:14
production. South Dakota's averaging 86
10:16
points a game. Kansas City 74 conference play,
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the Coyote 6 and 4, The Ruse 3:00 and 8:00 and home Rd.
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South Dakota 11 and one at home. Kansas City 2:00 and 9:00 on the
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road. So we have the line move.
10:30
We got the great bet splits, Much better offensive
10:33
efficiency. They don't turn it over.
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Better offensive production, better conference play.
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The big home Rd. discrepancy rhythm only has South Dakota
10:42
-1.1. So again, this is around A2 2
10:46
1/2 point spread. This is why we're money lining
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South Dakota. Hopefully just eke out a win on
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their homecourt. I got South Dakota money line at
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-135 last butt of the night, 8:30 PM Eastern Time.
10:58
Utah Tech and Southern Utah big big rivalry match up down in is
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it down in Utah? Out in Utah, I guess is the New
11:06
Englanderver. We're out in Utah here.
11:08
But anyway, maybe not the most popular match up of the night,
11:12
but a good sharp move here. Utah Tech comes into this game
11:15
pretty bad. 6 and 17 on the year.
11:17
They've lost six in a row, just lost to Abilene Christian, 86 to
11:21
72, losing out right as a 2 1/2 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, Southern Utah, 10 and 14.
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But they've also struggled a bit.
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They've lost six of their last seven.
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And ironically enough, they just played Abilene Christian as
11:32
well. They lost 84 to 70, didn't cover
11:35
as a three-point home dog. Now, what have we seen across
11:38
the market? Will this line open?
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Southern Utah listed as a very short 1 1/2 point home favorite
11:44
and just like William and Mary, just like South Dakota, good
11:47
sneaky sharp move toward Southern Utah at home.
11:50
Southern Utah has been steamed up -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2.
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Some shops juice like it may even go to three.
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So pretty good one way movement in favor of Southern Utah at
12:00
DraftKings, 88% of bets, 89% of dollars on Southern Utah.
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And again, as a contrarian better, you might hear me say
12:07
8889% and you're like Josh, what are you doing taking these 88%
12:11
teams? Because as a contrarian, that
12:13
would technically mean I'm on a public play, which would scare
12:15
me. But remember, this is Utah Tech,
12:18
Southern Utah. It's a very low bet game.
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It's one of the lowest bet games of the night.
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So to me, that 88 percent, 89% dollars isn't a public play.
12:27
It's a tiny little match up. It's not an added game, extra
12:30
game, but it's a small match up that the public doesn't care
12:32
about. Which means that heavy
12:34
percentage of almost 90% bets in dollars, most likely coming from
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sharp betters who have targeted the game, not the betting
12:40
public. Ken Palm, by the way, pretty
12:43
good edge here. He's got Utah, Southern Utah
12:45
actually winning by 5, which is nice to see because again,
12:48
they're -2 1/2 in the market. But that doesn't mean I'm laying
12:51
2 1/2 and saving the juice. That just means I'm more
12:54
confident to play the money line.
12:56
So I got Southern Utah on the money line at -144 DraftKings,
13:00
82% of bets, 86% of money line dollars on Southern Utah.
13:05
So again, good hefty split. They're mostly wise guys or wise
13:08
gals hitting Southern Utah. I believe they're the
13:11
Thunderbirds. Southern Utah, better defensive
13:13
efficiency, 220th in the country may not sound great, but if you
13:17
look at the opposite, Utah Tech, they ranked 311th.
13:20
Offensive rebound percentage, 30% versus 27%.
13:24
Free throw shooting 73% versus 68%.
13:28
Southern Utah. By the way, seven and five at
13:30
home. Again, your winning record, but
13:33
Utah Tech O and 12 on the road. Let's make that O and 13.
13:37
So we got the line move the bet splits, Ken Palm pretty good
13:41
discrepancy. They're winning by 5 and our
13:43
friends at Rhythm have Southern Utah winning or projected here
13:47
-2.7. So let's play another money line
13:50
here. I got Southern Utah -144 so Bill
13:53
and Mary, South Dakota, Southern Utah, let's try to go 2 and one
13:57
eke out a winning night. Now, I am very much excited to
14:01
talk a little bit of baseball with you guys.
14:04
And my angle here has to do with my favorite team, the Boston Red
14:08
Sox. Now, you might be saying, Josh,
14:09
you're forcing it. You're a Red Sox fan.
14:12
You're just excited because they signed Alex, Alex Bregman, which
14:15
I am, because, you know, you might there.
14:18
If you don't know, I'm born and raised in Boston.
14:20
Baseball is my first true love. I was born in 1987.
14:24
So I'm now 37 years old. I'm getting old.
14:26
I'm getting up there. But Rodger, Clemens, Nomar,
14:30
Pedro, I mean, these guys are my heroes.
14:32
I've always been a Sox fan, Broke the curse, sat next to my
14:34
dad, 2004. I was a senior in high school,
14:38
greatest time of my life, and then saw the Red Sox become a a
14:42
juggernaut, winning a bunch of World Series in the 21st
14:45
century. But over the last, I believe,
14:47
six years, they have let me down.
14:49
They have pissed me off. They haven't spent any money.
14:52
John Henry cares more about his his portfolio and Liverpool and
14:56
these other ventures than he does the Red Sox.
14:59
And I've been down on Boston for quite a while.
15:01
But you know what, I'm like a I'm like a tortured fan.
15:04
I'm like a an abused spouse. They showed me a little love and
15:08
you know, here I am. I thought I was out.
15:10
They pull me back in the Red Sox.
15:12
If you didn't notice, they signed Alex Bregman last night.
15:17
He had bigger offers from I want to say the Tigers, the Cubs and
15:21
the Astros, but he chose to come to Boston.
15:24
Three-year deal, 120 million, 40 million a year high AAV.
15:29
The Red Sox have been doing this.
15:30
They don't want to commit long term contracts, but they're
15:32
willing to kind of overspend in the short term.
15:35
But I love this move for Boston. Yes, I'm a Red Sox fan, but I
15:38
think this is exactly what the Red Sox needed #1 they're a
15:42
young team. They needed a veteran and a
15:44
leader and a guy with playoff experience, which Bregman has.
15:47
He's won two World Series, but more importantly, a right-handed
15:51
bat who can play good defense. The Red Sox had one of the worst
15:55
infield defenses last year. It sounds like Bregman's going
15:57
to play second base. I would love to try to trade
16:01
Yoshida and have Bregman play third and have Rafi Devers DH.
16:05
But hey, we'll see. But Bregman is just a huge, not
16:09
only on the field edition, Red Sox left-handed, heavy lineup,
16:12
bringing in a right-hander, but the leadership, the winning
16:15
quotia, the defense, I think it's a huge move and a great
16:20
move for the Red Sox. Now, what does that mean in
16:23
terms of a win total? I tell you what, guys, I played
16:26
the Red Sox over 85 1/2 wins last night.
16:30
I played it right when I saw this move for Bregman.
16:32
And here's my angle #1 Bregman, massive edition.
16:36
But if you haven't paid attention, the Red Sox, they
16:38
traded for Garrett Crochet, big stud left-hander, They signed
16:42
Walker Buehler. They brought into all this
16:44
Chapman. So they've improved their
16:46
pitching staff and also have a couple of really good young
16:49
prospects, Roman Anthony, Christian Campbell.
16:51
So again, if they can come up and produce, even better.
16:54
But this is a team that went 81 and 81 last year.
16:58
So I also, I believe their win total open at 84 1/2.
17:03
It's up to 85 1/2. But actually I noticed today
17:06
most books are at 86 1/2. And you know, I can't tell you
17:10
how important it is for just like one game.
17:13
You know, the Red Sox win 86 games, you win over 85 1/2, you
17:16
lose over 86 1/2. So the fact that they won 81
17:21
games last year, you add Bregman, Crochet, Bueller,
17:25
Chapman, some of these young kids contribute, Can you win
17:28
five more games than last year? I think that's doable.
17:31
Also a healthy Tristan Casas, big first baseman, power hitter,
17:35
he was hurt pretty much all year.
17:37
I also look at the Orioles may be dropping off a bit, losing
17:41
Corbin Burns, Anthony Santander, when their power hitters left as
17:44
well. You know, Blue Jays, Rays, it is
17:47
a tough division. The a Elise, the Yankees
17:49
obviously lose Soto, but you know, brought in Bellinger and
17:53
Max Frieden and Goldschmidt. So they'll be competitive.
17:56
But to me, this is a play on a team that won 81 games last year
18:00
and has had a has had a really good offseason and the market
18:03
has moved in their direction. So the market is respecting the
18:05
Red Sox a little bit. But here's the thing.
18:08
I think you got to get that 85 1/2 wins right now.
18:12
FanDuel, Bet, MGM, DraftKings and Caesars are all at 86 1/2.
18:16
Now. I played this at 85 1/2 over at
18:20
-110 last night at Bet MGM, but again today, and this is the
18:25
importance of again, striking while the iron's hot, not being
18:27
too late to the party. There's only one book still
18:30
offering 85 1/2, and it's ESPN bet over 85 1/2 Red Sox wins.
18:36
It's -130 you know, you could say to yourself, just play the
18:40
86 1/2, save the juice. But I think it's important to
18:44
get that over 85 1/2 again. You would hate, hate, hate to
18:47
see this land 86 wins and you lose an over 86 1/2.
18:52
So my recommendation to you would be if you're playing it,
18:55
go play it at ESPN bet over 85 1/2 -, 130.
18:58
Yes, it's a little pricey, but hey, it could be very meaningful
19:02
when we get to September and they're hovering around that
19:04
number. The other angle here is I wanted
19:07
to play up Juice Reel because juice reel fantastic.
19:10
You can follow all of these best bet pics from the all systems go
19:14
pod. They're always posted to juice
19:15
reel on the social tab. You can just click find juicers
19:18
and search ASG under score podcast.
19:20
So if you if you do follow the plays and they do cost 499 a
19:25
week. No, not $499 a week, $4.99.
19:29
So I consider it a tip jar. If you like the pod go sign up
19:32
to follow the best bets on juice reel.
19:34
I always tweeted out late afternoon for my Twitter account
19:37
at Josh under score insights. But I, I also mentioned this,
19:40
not to say just follow the plays and support the pod, but one of
19:44
the best features of Juice reel is their futures tab.
19:48
It's kind of hidden. I was actually talking to my
19:50
buddy Ricky Gold, who, who is basically the, the brains and
19:53
the the founder of Juice reel, and I was saying, hey, you got
19:55
this great futures tab. And the beauty of it is that you
19:59
can shop for the best line for an award, a win total, a futures
20:02
bet, but it's a little bit hidden.
20:04
So in order to get to it, if you haven't yet, just go download
20:07
rhythm. But what I like to do is go to
20:09
today's games and there's a button to the right that says
20:12
view all. You click that, you go to the
20:14
top, it lists all the sports, slide all the way to the right
20:17
and click futures. And then you can just go to
20:20
futures, go to MLB, click the your team, the win total, and
20:24
it'll show you the win total in particular for the Red Sox at
20:27
every single book. So instead of having to log into
20:30
every book and write it down and find the best 1, you know, Juice
20:34
Roll does a great job of very quickly telling you where the
20:36
best number is. And I was actually talking to
20:39
Ricky and I said you got to promote this little more.
20:41
So he's going to work on actually putting the futures tab
20:43
kind of rate smack dab in the middle of the app.
20:47
So yes, I'm a Red Sox fan, but I think this Bregman move is huge.
20:51
I think the Red Sox will be better than last year, and if
20:53
you can shop around and get 85 1/2 over, that's my play.
20:57
So I got the Red Sox over 85 1/2 wins.
21:00
I got -110 last night. Now you're looking at -130 and
21:05
that is from ESPN bet. In the same vein, I made a
21:09
futures play in the NBA last night as well.
21:12
And you know what? I was actually watching the
21:15
Celtics game because I don't know if I told you this, but it
21:17
is in the IT is in the app for juice Real.
21:21
But I have the Celtics over 58 1/2 wins and they're kind of
21:25
maybe going to hit it. They might come up short like
21:27
it's going to, you know, I'm I'm basically watching every Celtics
21:30
game. I am a Celts fan, but I'm
21:32
watching every game rooting for wins because it's important here
21:36
as I'm trying to trying to catch that ticket.
21:38
So right now the Celtics are 39 and 16, so they're kind of right
21:43
on pace. But anyway, I was watching the
21:45
game last night, Celtic, Spurs Celtics ended up winning 116 to
21:49
one O 3. But I remember getting an e-mail
21:52
from my buddy John Ewing at Venom GM about NBA awards.
21:55
I noticed that for rookie of the year, Stefan Castle had become
22:00
the kind of the favorite. And if you remember Stefan
22:02
Castle, he was the 4th overall pick this year, part of the big
22:07
UConn winning championship team. But I noticed that e-mail and
22:10
then I was watching the Celtic Spurs game last night and Stefan
22:14
Castle impressed me. He finished with 20 points, 4
22:17
rebounds, 3 assists. On the year, he's averaging 12.9
22:21
points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists.
22:25
And I said, you know what, there's an opportunity here
22:28
hopefully to win an award with Stefan Castle, Rookie of the
22:31
Year. Now, one thing I noticed is
22:35
basically his competitors, like right now.
22:37
So going into last night, Stefan Castle was the favorite rookie
22:41
of the year plus 190. His closest competitors are
22:46
Kalell Ware, the big man from the heat, plus 220.
22:50
Then you have Jalen Wells +500. You have recent resource Shay
22:55
plus 750. And then you have Zach Edie.
22:58
I think he's like plus 1000. But anyway, Castle has really
23:02
come on. He was plus 325 last week.
23:06
He opened at +700 down to plus 190.
23:09
When I went to go bet him last night, he was plus 175 at I
23:14
think it was FanDuel. I put that in and then I look
23:16
today, he's around plus 145 + 140.
23:20
So whole point being is the markets moving toward Castle.
23:24
I always look at ticket and handle percentages here and
23:26
Castle's got a pretty good split.
23:27
He's only getting 8% of Rookie of the Year tickets, but nearly
23:31
15% of Rookie of the Year money. The only higher ticket and
23:35
handle count is Zach Edie again, but he's dropped a bit.
23:38
Bronny James, of course, you know, he's basically kind of a
23:42
flyer play, but that's a good low bets, higher dollar line
23:45
move play in favor of Stefan Castle.
23:48
Castle also has kind of gotten better every month.
23:51
You know, usually when you're a rookie, you hit the wall, you
23:53
kind of struggle. He's actually gotten better as
23:56
the season has gone on In his in his first month in October, he
24:01
averages. He averaged look, he averaged 6
24:04
points then he shot up to 14, fell down to 10 points per game
24:08
in January. But then look at February or
24:12
look at January and February month of January, he averaged 15
24:16
points a game. Now he's averaging 18 points a
24:18
game. His basically his game log in in
24:23
January or sorry in February and the last of of January guys
24:28
averaging nearly 20 points a game.
24:30
So this is a player who isn't hitting rookie wall is getting
24:34
better each month and this will play for me the day to play
24:38
again. A little bit of the eye test.
24:39
He impressed me last night when I was watching the Celtics game.
24:42
So I put in Stefan Castle rookie of the year plus 175 again
24:47
today. It's down like plus 140.
24:49
But I think the angle here is you want to get this player
24:53
hopefully before he becomes a minus number.
24:55
So I would love to see Stefan Castle flip to -150 -, 200
25:00
again. Like I'm kicking myself for Shay
25:02
Giljust Alexander because he's -600 right now for MVP like
25:06
that, you know, he's probably going to win it.
25:08
But I missed the number. Rookie of the year.
25:10
I think there's still some value here, some plus money to play
25:13
Stefan Castle of the Spurs. So I got him plus 175 again last
25:17
night. I put in the Red Sox over Stefan
25:19
Castle, Rookie of the year. Boom.
25:22
Hopefully we'll we'll cash at least one.
25:23
And wouldn't it be nice if we could get both?
25:25
But that is an NBA future for you if you want to tail.
25:29
So that about does it for episode 216 of the all systems
25:33
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
25:35
This is the part of the pod, of course, where we wrap things up
25:38
and I start by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
25:41
out of your busy day, your busy lives to pull up a chair to the
25:44
virtual bar and hopefully space out.
25:46
Leave your your daily problems and issues behind and just sweat
25:50
some sharp contrary and breakdowns with me.
25:52
If you do enjoy the pod and you want to let me know you
25:54
appreciate it, please do me a solid.
25:57
Give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
26:00
It would go a long way to helping us to continue to grow
26:02
the pod. If you want to click the follow
26:05
button, that'll be great as well.
26:07
That way you get alert as soon as it drops each day.
26:09
If you want to recommend it to a friend, that would be fantastic
26:12
as well. Next, if you enjoy the pod and
26:15
you want to make my day, you can always buy my book, my first
26:18
book. That is the everything guide to
26:19
sports betting on Amazon.com. But you know what you should
26:23
really do? You should pre-order my second
26:26
book, my new book. I'm so excited about this guys I
26:29
told it to before, but the NFL sharp betting playbook how to
26:32
analyze the market, go contrarian and bet like a
26:36
data-driven wise guy. Please support the team and tell
26:40
everyone you know, your friends, your cousins, your uncles, your
26:43
Co workers, your colleagues. Tell them to pre-order the
26:46
everything guy did it again. The NFL sharp betting playbook.
26:49
They can do the everything guide to sports betting too, but
26:52
really I would love to continue to build these pre-orders make
26:56
the you know, make the the publisher happy and I'm seeing
26:59
you guys support that support the team support me.
27:02
It means a ton. You guys are DM ING me sending
27:04
me screenshots of you know, your pre-order being placed on
27:08
Amazon.com. It just means a ton guys.
27:10
Thank you so much and again more pre-orders.
27:14
The more pre-orders the you know, I usually say I'll buy a
27:17
drink at the book ginger ale or beer or beer.
27:19
You show me about the book, I'll buy you 2 beers, I'll buy you 3
27:23
Ginger Ailes. But seriously, go preorder on
27:26
Amazon, the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
27:28
It would really mean a lot to me.
27:29
And thank you to everyone who's already placed the preorder.
27:32
Seriously, it's just awesome to see.
27:35
Next, I mentioned Juice Rail, but how about rhythm as well?
27:38
Go download rhythm. Go download Juice Reel.
27:40
Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions
27:43
for best bets and player props. Rhythm also will have Major
27:46
League Baseball for the first time this year.
27:49
If you go to Rhythm and you go to the sports tab at the top
27:51
though, it'll say MLB in parentheses coming soon.
27:54
That is awesome. I'm so excited to add MLB to our
27:58
toolbox this year. But then also Juice Reel.
28:00
You can follow the all systems go best bets as well as the
28:03
futures plays. You can follow the Robo Jackson
28:06
best bet, best bet picks, the arbitrage plays, the sharp mush
28:09
indicators, the futures tab. Great shopping for the best line
28:13
all available. When you download rhythm and you
28:15
download juice reel, go do that now.
28:17
Give it a five star review. Tell your friends to download
28:20
rhythm and juice reel also. So that about does it for
28:24
episode 216 on a big Thirsty Thursday.
28:27
I got more shoveling to do, and it's annoying.
28:29
It's not the fluffiest, you know, light snow.
28:31
It's like the wet, heavy snow, which is kind of rain and mush.
28:36
Anyway, what are you going to do?
28:37
I'm just excited for spring. But as always, guys, I'm going
28:40
to leave you with a couple things #1 whether I see you at
28:43
the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
28:46
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
28:49
Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
28:52
Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
28:55
Massachusetts. We're out in the desert where
28:57
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his
28:59
number runners, where the lowest juice possible is found at the
29:02
South Point, wherever it may be. Or of course, don't forget
29:05
jumping in the stadium swim pool, cashing a big ticket at
29:07
Circa, wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
29:10
and show me a nice little little sweep in college basketball last
29:13
night. Show me Iowa plus the points,
29:16
Winthrop getting it done coming from behind, and show me a Navy
29:19
money line. Yeah, why don't you just if you
29:21
this is. What I get all the time?
29:22
If you believe in the team, why don't you just lay the points?
29:26
What are you afraid? No, I would just rather win a
29:30
bet when the team wins straight up versus losing laying a 3 1/2,
29:33
which is exactly what happened with Navy last night.
29:36
So show me a Navy Iowa Winthrop ticket.
29:39
First one's on me, next one's on you.
29:41
Then we'll post about the book. Sweatshop and train plays all
29:43
night long as always, guys. Three in one, one and three,
29:47
four and OO and four, two and two.
29:50
Hot, cold, you know, grinding, scratching for a win, trying to
29:54
bounce back from a losing day, trying to keep it going after a
29:56
winning day. Again, the thought process, the
29:58
model, the blueprint never changes.
30:00
Sharp, data-driven, plays with our head and not our heart.
30:03
If we can stick to the model, stick to the blueprint.
30:06
Against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
30:09
avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
30:12
We're not going to win every time, but we're going to win a
30:13
majority of the time long term. So keep grinding everyone have a
30:17
fantastic thirsty Thursday. Be right back at it tomorrow for
30:21
a big Friday, which will be episode 217 of the All systems
30:25
Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
30:29
Good luck everybody and have a great night.