Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/17/26: Trump Lashes Out At Israel, Prof Pape On US Surrender, Israelis Hysterical Over Deal

Transcript

6/17/26: Trump Lashes Out At Israel, Prof Pape On US Surrender, Israelis Hysterical Over Deal · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
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  Speaker 1: dot com.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: Good morning, and welcome to Washington, d C. Now occupied territory.
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Democratic Socials of America swept elections last night.
• 0:40
  Speaker 4: Well, I guess it's bifurcated packing bags occupied by the
• 0:45
  Speaker 4: federal government and DSA at the same time, it's an
• 0:49
  Speaker 4: ambitious crossover.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Friend of the show, Janise Lewis George, on her way
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: to becoming mayor. Trump has said that if she won
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: the primary, he's going to take the city over.
• 0:57
  Speaker 5: Forget the general, just the primary. Won the primary, so.
• 1:01
  Speaker 6: Maybe he can take care of the LG first the
• 1:04
  Speaker 6: reflection part.
• 1:05
  Speaker 5: I think we're safe. Then we'll see that Algae's not
• 1:07
  Speaker 5: going anywhere.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: We're gonna we're gonna talk about the latest developments as
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: we march towards the Geneva signing of the MoU between
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: Iran and the United States. Bloomberg reported what they claimed
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: are the fourteen points. Our understanding is that they are
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: not there. Those are incorrect. However, we can go over
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: the parts that are missing and what it indicates. We're
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: going to have the good professor on Robert Pape.
• 1:35
  Speaker 6: Robert Pape, he's going to be here. Are we still
• 1:37
  Speaker 6: in the.
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: Escalations or where did we break out?
• 1:39
  Speaker 6: Or did we break out?
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: By Donald Trump unexpectedly embracing the L.
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: Apparently the model didn't account.
• 1:48
  Speaker 7: For the L.
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: We'll see, well, the model didn't count for the L.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: Is just most presidents would escalate instead of taking the L.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: All right, well, last, Professor Pape, we'll look at the
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: fallout in Israel, which is heading into an election for
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: prime minister. We're going to check in to see how
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: well how rationally people are taking it over there?
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: Right, yes, well, and here, of course from MSNBC all
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: the way to Tel Aviv, indeed, indeed, now go ahead.
• 2:17
  Speaker 5: Never mind. So there's.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: The crackdown on dissent is sweeping across the country. So
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: not only do you have the Michigan protesters, you've got
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: some in Washington that were just recently convicted. You'd had
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: fifteen protesters in Minnesota charged with felonies for hurting the
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: feelings of ICE agents and CBP.
• 2:43
  Speaker 6: Oh, we're going to disagree on this.
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: That's will be fun, excellent, looking forward to that.
• 2:46
  Speaker 6: Yeah, that'll be good. Conspiracy to impede or obstruct.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: And cause emotional disturbance, Yes, there's some of that.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: We will agree on some things, no question about it.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: But we have the indictment now that was just dropped yesterday,
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: so we will not charges weren't dropped, but the indictment
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: was unsealed yesterday, so we will go through the charges.
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: And huge new Epstein investigation dropped by The New York
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: Times that purports to tell us what happened in the
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: days leading up to Epstein's alleged suicide, which The New
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: York Times is treating like it's actually more credible based
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: on their investigation, the idea that Epstein did kill himself.
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: So lots of new details to get over to get
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: to go over in that block. Also, Vice President Vance
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: talked a little bit about why he sees himself as
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: an Epstein conspiracy theorist on where else but the View
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: last night.
• 3:34
  Speaker 6: So we do have a lot to get to. And
• 3:36
  Speaker 6: then another front of the show, Rocanna is going to
• 3:38
  Speaker 6: join us.
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he'll be here with the APAC Tracker crew, and
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: they are revealing a pledge that if you sign the pledge,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: they will take away your Red card.
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: So it's a get out of your red card.
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: So even if you took a whole bunch of Proisro
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: money in the past, if you sign this pledge, you
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: get the green card.
• 4:00
  Speaker 6: It's like Grover Norquist's pledge not to ever raise taxes.
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, basically, now the left has.
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: Its own yeah uh on the right to actually exactly,
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: people everybody hates the card.
• 4:12
  Speaker 6: You see people on the right sometimes sharing the the APAC.
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: Tracker devastating the red is. You're like, wow, yeah, red
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: it's hard.
• 4:20
  Speaker 7: It's bad.
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: So uh, it'll be Corey Archibald and Rocana later in
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: the program. But let's start with a run and let's
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: actually start with President Trump here. So the entire thing
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: was about this enriched uranium, right nuclear dust. Trump in
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: a press commerce yesterday said, you know what, Actually that's stuff.
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: It's like half a million bucks. You can get that
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: stuff anywhere. Let's roll let's roll a one here.
• 4:47
  Speaker 8: So the atomic energy you just reported that it was
• 4:50
  Speaker 8: one of the most devastating bombies said it was the
• 4:52
  Speaker 8: whole mountain collapsed on top of it, and frankly, to
• 4:56
  Speaker 8: go get it. Week, We're going to go get it.
• 4:58
  Speaker 8: But to go get it it's a big deal because
• 5:02
  Speaker 8: they say only China and US have the equipment where
• 5:04
  Speaker 8: you can even get the whole mountains collapse. Sometime we
• 5:08
  Speaker 8: have cameras on it. You could make the case why
• 5:11
  Speaker 8: you're even bothering because it's not really valuable. It's you know,
• 5:14
  Speaker 8: it's probably half imilion to know with, it's not very
• 5:18
  Speaker 8: valuable set, but I think psychologically we're one again.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: You could make the case why even bother Yes, actually
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: watching how this unfolded the last several months, you could
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: right make a plausible case. One could One could, Oh,
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: only the Chinese have the bulldozers.
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: Now, as Jeremy ska.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: Hill reported throughout the negotiation process, one of the things
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: that the Iranians were offering the entire time, if you remember,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: was right now the stuff is covered with rubble, we
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: will agree to not.
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: Move remove the rubble during negotiations.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: That appears to have shown up in the MoU as
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: the status quo, which I think is panicking some pro
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: Israel types. But the status quo, as Trump pointed out
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: and as the Iranians have acknowledged, is that he's right,
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: like the entire mountain did fall on it. So the
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: status quo is actually, if you don't want them to
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: have access to it, the status quo is that well.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: Even actually the use of the words status quo is
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: one of the interesting things that shows up in the
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: memorandum of understanding that Bloomberg published yesterday. This is a
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: zero A lot to get to here ran now drop site.
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: You're saying is the drop side understanding is that this
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: is not accurate. Bloomberg updated the story as of this
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: morning to say Iranian media is saying this is not
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: accurate as well. But actually that point about the quote
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: status quo appears in the Bloomberg MoU that they published,
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: and you couldn't actually put into words more of a
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: loss for the Trump administration than literally going with in
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: this MoU this peace deal status quo.
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: It depends though, think about it.
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: If the status quo is that the nuclear dust is
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: completely inaccessible to Iran and Iran is promising not to
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: try to access it, isn't that what we want?
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, the war was started to completely change the
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: status quo, and.
• 7:23
  Speaker 5: So this happened last year. We're talking the twelve day war, right.
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: So to end with a piece still that literally uses
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: the words over multiple points in this fourteen point piece
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: still status quo, I mean that is and to then
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: try to frame this as a win for the United States,
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: is the administration obviously is doing right now Now we
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: don't know and Ryan Dropst has some reporting on this
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: or some understanding into this, insight into.
• 7:47
  Speaker 6: This, what is true and what is false?
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: Out of this it looks like a pretty it's probably
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: a pretty recent draft.
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: It's pretty recent, but it's missing.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: I think what it's missing is the few things things
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: that Iran was able to extract as concessions for not
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: responding to net and Yahoo attacking Beirut. And the key
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: thing is in paragraph one we can put up a
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: zero again they paragraph one of the Azama Republic run
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: in the US, together with their allies, important declare, upon
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: the signing of this MoU an immediate and permanent end
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, just for
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: the people who are not forgetting last time that included Lebanon,
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: and undertake that from now on they will not launch
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: any hostile action against each other and will refrain from
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: the threat or use of force against each other. Our
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: understanding and Onwatch media also reported this, which has very
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: good sources inside the Iranian government as well, is that
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: what they added was that the territorial integrity and sovereignty
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: of Lebanon will be protected. And what that means let me,
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: let me find the exact phrasing. I'll pull it up
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: here in a second. Oh, here it is Lean was
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: reefed on the close of my run. Trump's does not. Anyway,
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: I'll find the exact language in a second. But by
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: saying that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon must
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: be respected, what that means you gotta goeah, because Israeli
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: troops inside Lebanon is not respecting the sovereignty and territorial
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: integrity of Lebanon. So that is the thing that they
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: appear to have gotten added thanks to net Yahoo again.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: So net Yahoo hoisting himself on his own batard there
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: like he thought he was getting in some last licks
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: and kind of showing that he's able to continue to
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: strike Lebanon.
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: Instead, what the US.
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: Added was worse for him that you know, you got
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: to leave too, and in Iran is saying, to be
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: crystal clear, we're not signing this sixty days from now
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: unless it is unless Israel is leaving, but you gotta
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: go yes.
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: And that gets to the fragility of the agreement because
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: I actually was really curious to ask you about this.
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: What we saw unfolding Gaza was this really high profile
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: revealing of a deal. And what's happened is as it
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: goes to the back burner, it fades from the media
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: attention a bit, then it kind of quietly falls apart.
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: Trump is still trumpeting a deal, but it's not actually
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: a deal because it's not being agreed to. And in
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: this case, whether or not you know, the sixty day
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: period that the MoU sets, which seems real because that's
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: according to what the Vice President has said as well,
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: faking of which we'll have a clip of him in
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: just one moment too.
• 10:45
  Speaker 6: Then it all falls apart.
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: I mean it actually can fall apart so easily, because
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: the sixty day period is to finalize the nuclear element
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: of the agreement, which apparently was the entire part.
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: Of the war that took years to do last time.
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: Yes, exactly.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: And so then it gets to whether or it's in
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: Yahoo actually agrees to leave that area.
• 11:04
  Speaker 6: And so I mean, I don't know. Let's let's take
• 11:06
  Speaker 6: a listen to Vice President j.
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: Quote oh yeah quote and ensuring the territorial integrity and
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: sovereignty of Lebanon.
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: Okay, And so Vice President Vance yesterday got asked by
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: the Lebanon about the Lebanon part of this by Megan Kelly.
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: He went on the View yesterday.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: He's on a book tour, a step by Megan Show.
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: Megan asked her about this element. And let me know
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: what you think, Grian, I think he's dodging this question
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: pretty hard.
• 11:28
  Speaker 6: Let's roll it.
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: You get to the next stage.
• 11:30
  Speaker 6: Is Lebanon included Lebanon?
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: It is a regional peace deal.
• 11:35
  Speaker 9: It's going to include the golf, it's gonna include Israel,
• 11:38
  Speaker 9: It's gonna include Lebanon.
• 11:39
  Speaker 10: To the idea is this is a true regional peace deal,
• 11:41
  Speaker 10: because you reply, sorry forgive me no, no, no. The idea is
• 11:46
  Speaker 10: that is that if the the if the Iranians comply,
• 11:49
  Speaker 10: then we are going to have a true transformed deal
• 11:52
  Speaker 10: for the Middle East.
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: Megan said, you can't do that without Naho, and Vanshu
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: skirted to saying, well, you know, if iron doesn't comply,
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: then it all falls apart. We have all of the
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: incentives for Iran to comply. He never really answered that question.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: I kind of thought he did answer it, and I
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: just thought he answered it in the least humiliating way
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: he possibly can. He's like, does it apply to Lebanon, Yeah,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: it applies to Kuwait, Horain, Uae, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Oman, Iran,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: Like all the countries are included, and.
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: So leban Yes, Lebanon, and you can't do that nets
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: Yahoo that he pivots to, well, Iran has to comply.
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: But on the back end he says, right, he says
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: Iran has to comply, so you know he's not the
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: only one who has to comply. But on the back
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: half of that answer, he says, we're going to have
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: a new regional arrangement in the in the Middle East,
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: which is basically which I think actually is answering the
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: question that, yeah, you're you're going to have to comply.
• 13:00
  Speaker 6: You're going to have to comply.
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: But I think it's fair to say, I mean, Natsannahu
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: put out a video yesterday saying with an agreement, without
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: an agreement, as long as I am the Prime Minister
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: of Israel, Iran will not have nuclear weapons. You can
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: take that for whatever you think it's worth. But we'll
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: add just some of the points from this Bloomberg leaked memorandum.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: The United States undertakes Yeah, this is six. The United
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: takes under. The United States undertakes together with its regional partners,
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least three hundred
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: billion dollars. Now that looks like Jared Kushner and Steve
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: Whitkoff negotiated a massive new investment for either them or
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: their real estate friends in Iran. Because now it's on
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: the United States to ensure financing of at least three
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: hundred billion dollars for economic development in Iran. And bear
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: in mind that Trump also started this war meant regime change,
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: not once.
• 14:02
  Speaker 6: But multiple times.
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: The Wall Street Journal reports, I think pretty much everyone agrees.
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: Who has replaced the supreme leader, the Ayatola, the people
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: who have replaced him, Treata Parsi has said, this.
• 14:14
  Speaker 6: Are more radical.
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: So not only did you not get a real regime change,
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: you got a regime shift to more radical, a more
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: radical regime. And you're giving them three hundred billion dollars
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: for economic development. You're helping them get three hundred billion
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: dollars for economic development, lifting all sanctions immediately immediately.
• 14:31
  Speaker 6: That's also part of this.
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: And then on top of waiving them sure, yeah, and
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: then while they work out the sixty day thing, and
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: then on top of that an unfreezing of the assets.
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: So this is like.
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: Completely if someone told you on March first, after this
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: war began, if someone told the people who were cheerleading it,
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: this is what the president would land on, they would.
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: Have been apoplectic, and indeed they are now. But what
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: did they expect?
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And to reference Jeremy's reporting again in mid to
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: late February Iran was offering extraordinary concessions to avoid this
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: war on the nuclear program, probably significantly more advanced than
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: what they're offering now, and Trump.
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: Decided not to take it. Instead went to war.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: And you know, from Iran's perspective, they're happy to get
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: the three hundred million dollars an investment in the unfrozen funds.
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: I think they probably would have actually, I don't know
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: at this point whether they would have rather not had
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: the war. Certainly more than three thousand people killed, most
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: of them civilians, many of them schoolgirls. The steel industry
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: smashed to pieces, petrochemical industry smash, the infrastructure devastation across
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: the country is significant.
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: More than one hundred top leadership gone.
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: Yes, the Tola killed, including lots of other leaders Lara Johnny.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: And when it comes to this three hundred million dollars
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: according to Reuters, and the ft one hundred two hundred
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: and fifty billion is already committed. And there's something sick
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: about it because it actually is a decent investment opportunity
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: for these golf countries and Witcoffin whoever else is getting
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: involved here.
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: And they produced the investment.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: Opportunity by destroying things, so they destroyed a bunch of
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: stuff raise the price of gas. The money that you
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: have been paying extra over the last couple of months
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: is money that you couldn't spend on other things. It's
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: money that went into the coffers of the Golf States.
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: The Golf States are then going to invest that in
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: Iran and make probably pretty decent returns because those investments
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: will be paid back, maybe partly in some ownership, but
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: mostly just getting a nice little not on the way
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: back from the three hundred million dollars that they invest. Now,
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: the billions that they're unfreezing, that's Iron's money. And that
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: part has always been so weird to me that we're
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: up that we're upset that we're being forced to give
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: Iran back its own money.
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: Well, and let's I mean, the one thing that the
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: administration is going to say is a big win out
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: of all of this is this point where they say
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: the Islamic or I'm sorry here it is. Yeah, the
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: Islamic Republic of Iran in the United States agree that,
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo.
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program,
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: and the United States will not impose new sanctions on
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: Iran or strengthen its forces in the region. The point
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: right before that says the Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates,
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. And then
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: the next point you get the words status quo, right twice,
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: and the next point you get the words status quo
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: on its nuclear program.
• 17:50
  Speaker 6: So what is different from February.
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: Twenty seventh, basically nothing.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Now Trump says he got them to add that they
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: won't buy one either, we won't buy a nuclear weapon.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: I think part of this comes back to the propaganda
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: that led into this, which is that in the JCPOA
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: and in a fatwah and in their repeated policy statements,
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: the Iranians have consistently said we will not pursue a
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: nuclear weapon. We are not pursuing a nuclear weapon. A
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: lot of people in the US did not and do
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: not believe that. So they've reiterated it. They don't believe it.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: They didn't believe it, then they don't believe it now. Yeah,
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: And so for people that don't believe it, words on
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: paper don't mean anything.
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: At that point, you have to occupy the.
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: Country and then kill every graduating class of scientists, not
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: just the current scientists.
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: And the question of credibility is Trump's entire argument, the rights,
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: entire argument about the JCPOI. So it's like, here we are,
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: and I mean, let's to your point about the propaganda.
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: This is what Trump says would have happened to Israel
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: without him.
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: A three.
• 18:57
  Speaker 8: I think Iran has rational leadership. You wouldn't have if
• 19:03
  Speaker 8: it weren't for the United States of America with me,
• 19:06
  Speaker 8: because Obama was the opposite. Israel would not exist right now.
• 19:11
  Speaker 8: Israel would have been blown off the face of the
• 19:13
  Speaker 8: earth one hundred percent. And every smart person in Israel
• 19:17
  Speaker 8: knows that. Okay, thank you very much, everybody.
• 19:19
  Speaker 6: We'll get to this later in the show.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: But the people in Israel definitely don't seem to be
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: agreeing with Donald.
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: Trump on this. He now has to at home convince.
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: The people who were the biggest champions of his war
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: policy that this is a good deal, despite the fact
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: that it looks so similar to the JCPOA that they
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: agitated against for a long time, that Trump campaigned against
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen, that basically every Republican candidate campaigned against
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen, including by the way, Lindsay Graham, who
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: we forget ran for president in twenty sixteen.
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: Let's roll a four.
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: Trump again at the g summit talking about skeptics of
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: the deal.
• 19:53
  Speaker 8: Lindsey is skeptical. I'll have to talk to Lindsay.
• 19:55
  Speaker 7: He'll be in big travel.
• 19:58
  Speaker 8: Lindsay's good, he's fine, He's not skeptically.
• 20:01
  Speaker 7: His fine.
• 20:02
  Speaker 8: Look, this agreement covers something very nicely. We're not paying
• 20:07
  Speaker 8: for anything. We're not doing anything.
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: All right, now, let's listen to sendor Lindsay Graham. Let's well,
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: the next clip.
• 20:14
  Speaker 7: New Don has to come to Congress.
• 20:16
  Speaker 11: Or this will go I mean, it's what we did
• 20:18
  Speaker 11: on und Obama and Prester Trump said today we send
• 20:21
  Speaker 11: it to Congress.
• 20:22
  Speaker 7: He welcomes the vote. Here's what we achieved.
• 20:26
  Speaker 11: If this thing goes through Friday, if we've opened up
• 20:29
  Speaker 11: the Straits well, which will help the economy of the world,
• 20:32
  Speaker 11: the world will be in a permanent ceasire, hopefully, and
• 20:37
  Speaker 11: we'll try to get a nuclear deal with a run
• 20:39
  Speaker 11: and hopefully that will work out. If it doesn't, then
• 20:43
  Speaker 11: he's still achieved opening up the straits and you know,
• 20:45
  Speaker 11: stoking to potty.
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: So what we hear there from Lindsay gramm Aryan is
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: actually similar to what we've heard from JD. Vance on
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: his media tour, which is that the sixty day time
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: period in which there will be negotiations over a run's
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: nuclear program will be the saving grace. Like trust the
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: Process says, Trust the Deal. Everything is now set up
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: in Iran's interest. That's why the deal looks the way
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: that it looks. It's that it's setting them up to
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: comply with the terms of the deal, whether that means
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: giving up the nuclear dust as they say, whether that
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: means something even more dramatic, relinquishing any enrichment capacity, whatever
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: it is. They are now punting to the sixty day period.
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: And that gets to again, is this deal even serious?
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: Are they going to sign it on Friday? And then
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: it immediately starts gradually falling apart, just more on the
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: back burner than it is now. Like Trump has this
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: big signing ceremony, it's great, everything's wonderful. Troops are leaving
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: the region within thirty days, so he can say that
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: the war is over, but then it all ends up
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: falling apart. Just not in the headlines every single day.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Ron Dharmer, who is Nenya, who's former top aid
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: in the Israeli Pressed, saying that don't worry that we
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: actually will not get a signed deal. Hmm, but the
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: memory of understanding, even even not signed, if everybody executes
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: the ideas in it. Now, there's some argument that Trump
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: can't actually lift the sanctions because of law on the books.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: I haven't seen Trump care so much about laws on
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: the books. Why all of a sudden is he going
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: to start caring.
• 22:25
  Speaker 6: I think there's a.
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: Law in the books against staying in this war over
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: sixty days.
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: There's a lot of laws. There as a lot of
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: laws in the books.
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: Meanwhile, Israel killed another four in South Lebanon yesterday, and
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: so they're they're going to continue.
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: Attacks.
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: Has launched some rockets toward Israeli troops that are in Lebanon,
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: I don't believe across the Israeli bordered.
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: So that's that's continuing.
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: That's continuing to go on, and that and the goal
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: there being to kind of disrupt thing and get us
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: back into the escalation.
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's the hope.
• 23:07
  Speaker 6: We'll see if it works. Let's put this post up from.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: For the Escalation Trap author is what I mean yes, yes, yes,
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: not that he wants.
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: It, but no.
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: But it is the.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: Hope in the sense that that's what I.
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: Was going to say.
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, for hawks, whether it's Mike Pompeo or the Israelis,
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: this is yes, that is the hope that it's a trap,
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: everything falls apart and it just everything goes, it resumes.
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: Let's put this post up from Ibrahim Azizi, who is
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: the head of the Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament,
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: who posted yesterday Iranian Resilience Force strategic Pivot. The US
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: came to the table on Iran's terms. Now Washington must
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: prove its commitment by ending the war against Lebanon and
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: upholding every clause of the MoU Any breach. Will be
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: met with a decisive, crushing response. The era of unilateral
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: imposition against Iranians is over. So both sides eager to
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: claim this as a big win.
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: But ran the leaked Bloomberg text.
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: Even if it's not completely accurate, which I doubt that
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: it's completely accurate, it's clearly the bones of what the
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: agreement is going to look like, and it's brutal for Trump.
• 24:16
  Speaker 6: There's just no way, There's no other way.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: To put it, unless you have faith that in the
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: sixty day period he does come to some type of
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: transformative negotiation that is really unexpected and different, and for
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: whatever reason, he's able to extract that in the next
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: sixty days, but not what we.
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: Were at war.
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: And what Trump has done, very cleverly, is he has
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: taken the humiliation that would be his for this, and
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: he has pushed it over onto Net Yahoo. And by
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: creating this rift with net Yahoo and by publicly humiliating him,
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: he then agitates all of Net Yahoo's and Israel's defenders,
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: who then very loudly make absurd arguments about how as
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: a trader and Trump betrayed them and Trump should have
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: put boots on the ground, or Trump should continue the war,
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: and that creates so much noise and drama that we
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: forget that Trump is owed a lot of humiliation as well.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: And I think the entire world, including me, is just
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: fine to go along with that, be like, okay, yeah, actually,
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: let's just watch this drama unfold between Trump and then
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: Yahoo and Okay, yes, Trump deserves humiliation, but what's the
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: point He's actually incapable of it anyway.
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: Well, yeah, that's an important caveat to be fair. Now,
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: I guess from our vantage point, there may be something.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: If you know, we look at February twenty seventh, and
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: we say, what's going to happen by mid June or
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: by September when the sixty days has elapsed, as the
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: United States will be facilitating economic development in Iran and
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: treating it as a rational actor instead of continuing the
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: Lindsay Graham line about the JCPOA from twenty five fifteen
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: and acting like that's gospel. Now you have a United
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: States that is in sort of rational negotiations, that that
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: treats Iron as a rational actor with its own interests,
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: and there's going to be economic development in a country
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: that could obviously used in economic development. Maybe then you
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: could say there's a sick silver lining, But I don't
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: have any confidence that's actually what's going to come to
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: pass whatsoever.
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: And I will say, of the three countries Israel, United States,
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: and Iran, which one acted with any rationality over the
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: past year?
• 26:32
  Speaker 6: Was it Donald Trump? Donald Trump? Yeah, I mean that's
• 26:36
  Speaker 6: the good we got out of the war.
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: I'm glad thirteen American troops died for this, by the way,
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: which uses the word status quo. However, many times I
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: should have controlled left of that.
• 26:49
  Speaker 6: Billions of dollars, and we're.
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: As Trump says, maybe we shouldn't have done it.
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: Now, let's bring in Escalation Trap author Robert Pape. We
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: are joined with actually some breaking news by Professor Robert Pape,
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: who of course is the author of the Escalation Trap substack.
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: You can check that out and he is a professor
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: at the University of Chicago. Professor Pape, thank you so
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: much for joining us again.
• 27:15
  Speaker 7: Thank you for having me.
• 27:16
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: So, actually, just between when we started the show and
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: now when we're having this discussion with you, President Trump
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: has been speaking at the G seven summit in Switzerland
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: and is responding to this leaked memorandum of understanding that
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: hit Bloomberg.
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: Iranians are saying it's not real.
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: Actually, now even President Trump is saying it's not totally real. So, first,
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: that included a three hundred billion dollar facilitation of funds
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: from the United States to RAN, meaning like investments for
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: economic development is the phrase from the leaked MoU Here
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: is President Trump just moments ago talking about whether or
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: not that particular part is real.
• 27:54
  Speaker 6: B Two, well, he's.
• 27:55
  Speaker 7: Been reported that it includes his three hundred billion dollars
• 27:59
  Speaker 7: of love in my.
• 28:01
  Speaker 8: False people, you can invest if you want. I mean,
• 28:04
  Speaker 8: what are we gonna do, say nobody's ever allowed to
• 28:06
  Speaker 8: invest We're not invested. We're not putting up ten cents
• 28:09
  Speaker 8: and people can decide to do that, but that's up
• 28:13
  Speaker 8: to them. I mean, do you want me to say
• 28:15
  Speaker 8: nobody's ever allowed to invest in a country? I'll say
• 28:18
  Speaker 8: it with Egypt. Nobody's allowed to invest in Egypt. Am
• 28:21
  Speaker 8: I supposed to say that we are not investing in
• 28:24
  Speaker 8: it and we do not have a fund.
• 28:27
  Speaker 7: No.
• 28:28
  Speaker 8: If they do it, fine, but I would say they
• 28:31
  Speaker 8: won't be doing it for a while until they find
• 28:33
  Speaker 8: out the behavior. It's a behavior thing. But we are
• 28:37
  Speaker 8: not invested. That's a false story that got picked up
• 28:40
  Speaker 8: incorrectly from a statement that was pretty well made. I
• 28:45
  Speaker 8: think maybe a little bit it could have been a
• 28:47
  Speaker 8: little more accurate.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: And on top of that, the President said this again
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: just moments ago, be three and.
• 28:54
  Speaker 8: You can't give around a nuclear weapon and they will
• 28:58
  Speaker 8: never have a nuclear weapon. So that's very very strong.
• 29:01
  Speaker 8: It's a very strong deal. Nobody knows what it is,
• 29:04
  Speaker 8: but it's very strong, and most people seem to be
• 29:08
  Speaker 8: very happy. Who's really happy is the market.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong. Now,
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: Professor Pave, we can put b one up on the screen.
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: This is from the escalation trap. You wrote, uncertain deal
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: and Iran certainly enters its period of maximum leverage. This
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: was on June fifteenth. You said, despite the headlines, this
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: deal remains highly uncertain, and that I.
• 29:29
  Speaker 6: Think is proven to be true even two days.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: Later, as we approach the Friday signing deadline that the
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: Vice President was telling everybody yesterday is coming up. So
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: walk us through a little bit of this argument from
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: your own, Professor Pave, about how ARAN is in its
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: maximum leverage period right now.
• 29:46
  Speaker 7: Yeah, let's start with the big picture, and then I
• 29:49
  Speaker 7: want to comment directly on what President Trump said, because
• 29:53
  Speaker 7: I think I can offer some clarity for your audience
• 29:55
  Speaker 7: about what's going on as he's parsing his words. But
• 30:00
  Speaker 7: let's start with the big picture. President Trump lost the bombing.
• 30:05
  Speaker 7: Now he's at great risk for losing the deal. And
• 30:10
  Speaker 7: what I mean by that is that Iran came out
• 30:15
  Speaker 7: of the bombing, not just didn't collapse, but came out
• 30:18
  Speaker 7: of the bombing with power, it gained control of Hormuz.
• 30:24
  Speaker 7: Now with the deal, the big risk in the deal,
• 30:28
  Speaker 7: and I understand it's very controversial, but the risk is
• 30:32
  Speaker 7: Iran is gaining more power through the deal. And that
• 30:38
  Speaker 7: is very important to understand that Iran in the deal,
• 30:43
  Speaker 7: even by the terms President Trump describes and jd. Vance describes,
• 30:49
  Speaker 7: Iran will come out more powerful through the deal than
• 30:55
  Speaker 7: it is today. So this is an enormous of enormous
• 30:59
  Speaker 7: and importance because we're already understand that with the deal,
• 31:05
  Speaker 7: and this is completely agreed to by President Trump, Iran
• 31:09
  Speaker 7: will be able to sell oil immediately. Well that's a
• 31:13
  Speaker 7: billion dollars a week. Number two. We already know and
• 31:19
  Speaker 7: this is completely agreed to by President Trump, and you
• 31:22
  Speaker 7: just heard him say it, that others can invest in Iran.
• 31:27
  Speaker 7: That is this idea that America would block or sanction
• 31:32
  Speaker 7: countries for investment. This is important. We've had a tight
• 31:37
  Speaker 7: focus on Iran where we've put a basically a ring
• 31:40
  Speaker 7: around Iran. You can't do business in Iran or else
• 31:44
  Speaker 7: we America we come punish you. Well, that of course
• 31:48
  Speaker 7: has deterred quite a bit of business in Iran. That
• 31:50
  Speaker 7: is just by what President Trump just said now off
• 31:54
  Speaker 7: the table. So that means all of those golf countries.
• 31:58
  Speaker 7: Cutter it can offer that twelve billion dollars up front
• 32:02
  Speaker 7: signing bonus. President Trump doesn't have to pay the money.
• 32:05
  Speaker 7: Cutter is gonna pay the money, completely in line with
• 32:08
  Speaker 7: what the deputy Foreign Minister of Iran has said. Then
• 32:12
  Speaker 7: you just go further and further. And what you are
• 32:15
  Speaker 7: seeing here is you are seeing just with the early
• 32:19
  Speaker 7: stages of the MoU Iran is going to gain over
• 32:24
  Speaker 7: this sixty days, somewhere between twenty and thirty billion dollars
• 32:30
  Speaker 7: and there's no strings on what they can do with
• 32:32
  Speaker 7: that money. They can give that money to HESBLA. That is,
• 32:36
  Speaker 7: they want Israel to pull out of Lebanon. Well, there's
• 32:39
  Speaker 7: no quid pro quote. And Iran does not give missiles
• 32:42
  Speaker 7: and drone technology to HESBLA, No, they have This goes
• 32:45
  Speaker 7: completely the one side. They can give that money and
• 32:50
  Speaker 7: technology to the Hoothies. They can build the arc of
• 32:54
  Speaker 7: security resistance that we talked about on last show, no
• 32:58
  Speaker 7: strings attached, no limits on what they can do there.
• 33:02
  Speaker 7: That's just in the first sixty days. Okay, but now
• 33:06
  Speaker 7: let's look at the true long term problem. Medium term problem,
• 33:11
  Speaker 7: which is the title of the substack on the escalation trap,
• 33:15
  Speaker 7: the period of maximum leverage. This is what's happened so far,
• 33:19
  Speaker 7: But what's going to go on in the next sixty
• 33:22
  Speaker 7: days is, yes, oil will start begin to dribble out
• 33:26
  Speaker 7: of the Gulf, but that won't reach the drops of oil.
• 33:30
  Speaker 7: The ships won't reach their stations, their refineries for sixty days,
• 33:35
  Speaker 7: thirty to sixty days, and then it will be a
• 33:37
  Speaker 7: big process after that. So what do we live on
• 33:40
  Speaker 7: in that sixty day window. We continue to draw down
• 33:44
  Speaker 7: the oil inventories, the oil inventory window. It remains the
• 33:50
  Speaker 7: crucial issue because there's no way around it. And what's
• 33:54
  Speaker 7: going to happen is as we draw down to our
• 33:56
  Speaker 7: rock bottom levels in the global oil inventories, that means
• 34:02
  Speaker 7: Iran's leverage is gonna soar, it's gonna grow. Because now
• 34:07
  Speaker 7: in sixty days early August, that's right when this sixty
• 34:10
  Speaker 7: day window ends, notice, and that's when the oil inventory
• 34:13
  Speaker 7: bottom hits rock bottom. That means if Iran shuts this
• 34:17
  Speaker 7: down again for any reason, doesn't like what Israel's doing,
• 34:20
  Speaker 7: it can just come up with any reason at once.
• 34:23
  Speaker 7: It can hold the world hostage for even more and
• 34:27
  Speaker 7: what's that more likely gonna be in thisiwagh out the
• 34:31
  Speaker 7: trajectory here, because I'm thinking of this as a realist.
• 34:36
  Speaker 7: If you're gonna maximize power for Iran, what's the next
• 34:39
  Speaker 7: set of steps you want? You want complete withdrawal of
• 34:43
  Speaker 7: American forces from the region. You want, that's your next goal,
• 34:47
  Speaker 7: And you're already talking about it, and it's in the
• 34:50
  Speaker 7: bloomberg already. They're already laying down the marker that the
• 34:55
  Speaker 7: next steps are gonna be. And this may seem why
• 34:59
  Speaker 7: why do we care if US forces are there? Because
• 35:03
  Speaker 7: if US forces are not in the region, now, all
• 35:07
  Speaker 7: of a sudden, Iran has even more room for its
• 35:11
  Speaker 7: sphere of influence. There's more reason for those golf countries
• 35:16
  Speaker 7: to when we say invest in Iran, that's also called
• 35:21
  Speaker 7: bandwagoning and siding with Iran. That's joining Iran. Let's just
• 35:27
  Speaker 7: be clear, not Israel. They're not investing in Israel, you
• 35:31
  Speaker 7: see what I mean. So what's going to happen here
• 35:34
  Speaker 7: is that as this degree, as this period unfolds, this
• 35:39
  Speaker 7: is what I've been talking about about the fork in
• 35:41
  Speaker 7: the road that President Trump had to choose. Either he
• 35:45
  Speaker 7: escalates or he goes down the road of surrender and
• 35:49
  Speaker 7: allows Iran to become the fourth center of world power,
• 35:56
  Speaker 7: where it achieves over a period of a year or two,
• 35:59
  Speaker 7: regional primacy. And Trump has accepted not just to get
• 36:05
  Speaker 7: out of a deal. He's basically drawn a road map.
• 36:10
  Speaker 7: Remember how President Trump said the Obama deal was a
• 36:12
  Speaker 7: roadmap to an Iranian nuclear weapon. Well, this is a
• 36:16
  Speaker 7: bigger roadmap. This is a roadmap to Iranian primacy, regional
• 36:23
  Speaker 7: hedgemond in the region for as far as the eye
• 36:26
  Speaker 7: can see, which, by the way down the road may
• 36:30
  Speaker 7: also include nuclear weapons. That's not foreclosed here by any stretch.
• 36:36
  Speaker 7: There's nothing here that Iran has done. So President Trump's words,
• 36:41
  Speaker 7: he was choosing his words very carefully. In what you said.
• 36:45
  Speaker 7: There's nothing that in the Bloomberg that he is really
• 36:50
  Speaker 7: disagreeing with. He's saying it's all fake news. Well, he's
• 36:53
  Speaker 7: in fact confirming every word that's in Bloomberg because what
• 36:58
  Speaker 7: it says in Bloomberg, and if it's it's okay for
• 37:00
  Speaker 7: your audience. I'm just going to read point six. The
• 37:03
  Speaker 7: United States undertakes together with its regional partners to create
• 37:10
  Speaker 7: a comprehensive plan agreed on by both parties ensuring financing
• 37:16
  Speaker 7: of at least three hundred billion. Now, that doesn't say
• 37:22
  Speaker 7: America will certainly finance it. It does say America is
• 37:27
  Speaker 7: good with it. And for Iran becoming a regional hedgemond man,
• 37:32
  Speaker 7: you can't ask for better than that right now. And
• 37:35
  Speaker 7: their leverage is only growing over the next sixty days,
• 37:40
  Speaker 7: and it will stay there through the end of the year,
• 37:43
  Speaker 7: because it'll take that long before we'll have enough surplus
• 37:47
  Speaker 7: to put more reserve back in our oil in our
• 37:50
  Speaker 7: oil inventories, because as long as we don't have the
• 37:53
  Speaker 7: oil inventories, we don't have the cushion for even a
• 37:57
  Speaker 7: short period of time. And if Iran runs decides to
• 38:01
  Speaker 7: temporarily block the straits, you're going to see much more
• 38:04
  Speaker 7: panic here on the markets. Yeah.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: And of course, as we and all of the rest
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: of the world are building back up our inventories and
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: building back up our strategic reserves, we're also buying oil
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: for day to day activity, which has been putting much
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: more demand pressure over the next kind of six months
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: to a year as this is unfolding, which to your point,
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: only you know, accelerates the amount of leverage that they
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: would happen I wanted to push back a little bit
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: on kind of two notions there. One is it really
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: surrender to say, as Trump was laying it out in
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: it is a very common sense way. Who am I
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: to tell some other country that they who whether they
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: can invest in Egypt or whether they can invest in Iran?
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: It's a free world.
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: Basically, he's saying, it's a free world if you want
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: to invest in Iran.
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: I happen to agree.
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: I think sanctions are kind of insane that the US
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: unilaterally actually illegally under international law. You can't just do
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: unilateral sanctions and saying nobody's allowed to invest in Iran?
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: So why is just why is following international law and
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: not implementing unilateral sanctions on a country surrender to them?
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: And then related curious for your taking this right now?
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: The strait of Formose obviously has the capacity to shut
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: down and really crimp the global economy over the next
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: twenty years. We're going to have an ongoing shift to
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: other forms of energy, and the Gulf countries are going
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: to continue to build pipelines and other roots that take
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: into account this choke point and try to go around them.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: So global force power seems to me exaggerated based on
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: the fact that the strait of removes is in some
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: ways a deteriorating asset in that kind of a world.
• 39:47
  Speaker 7: So let me explain both points. So, first of all,
• 39:50
  Speaker 7: I am not arguing in favor of going back to escalations.
• 39:53
  Speaker 7: I just want to be very very clear here. Okay,
• 39:55
  Speaker 7: that's not my point here. I'm assessing as an analyst
• 39:59
  Speaker 7: what's going on in this deal. I'm not making an advocacy. Oh,
• 40:05
  Speaker 7: we don't like X, let's go back and bomb them.
• 40:07
  Speaker 7: So I just want to take that issue right off
• 40:10
  Speaker 7: the table. The reason this is a complete surrender and
• 40:13
  Speaker 7: capitulation by Trump, though, just as a factual matter, is
• 40:17
  Speaker 7: before the war, we fought a war to weaken Iran's power.
• 40:23
  Speaker 7: We wanted to weaken it by crippling its regime. We
• 40:27
  Speaker 7: wanted to weaken its missiles. We wanted to weaken its
• 40:30
  Speaker 7: ability to threaten its neighbors. This is the opposite outcome.
• 40:36
  Speaker 7: And now Trump is signing on the dotted line. Have
• 40:40
  Speaker 7: to recall that on February twenty eight he announced he
• 40:44
  Speaker 7: wanted unconditional surrender by Iran. This is the opposite. This
• 40:50
  Speaker 7: isn't conditional surrender. By the United States. And notice Trump's said,
• 40:53
  Speaker 7: who am I to block at dot dot dot for Iran?
• 40:57
  Speaker 7: So just as a factual matter, this just is a
• 41:01
  Speaker 7: surrender here. And now back to the issue of Iran
• 41:06
  Speaker 7: as the fourth center of world power. I'm not saying
• 41:09
  Speaker 7: it's the fourth center of world power today, but what
• 41:12
  Speaker 7: counts as a regional hegemon, that would be a center
• 41:17
  Speaker 7: of power. So number one, controlling twenty percent of the
• 41:21
  Speaker 7: world's energy, that's a fantastic amount of control of the
• 41:26
  Speaker 7: world's world's resources. The United States only has sixteen percent,
• 41:32
  Speaker 7: Russia only eleven, so put this in. Then on top
• 41:36
  Speaker 7: of that, they're building a sphere of influence. So now
• 41:40
  Speaker 7: when we talk about a regional hedgemon, what's the next step.
• 41:44
  Speaker 7: Then that first step is resources, second step is regional influence. Well,
• 41:49
  Speaker 7: now what they're doing is they are kicking Israel out
• 41:52
  Speaker 7: of Lebanon. They're extending their umbrella over their key allies,
• 41:57
  Speaker 7: and they're building that security belt from Lebanon to the
• 42:03
  Speaker 7: Red Sea to the Gulf. The third is the states
• 42:06
  Speaker 7: in the region bandwagon with you. They give you things
• 42:11
  Speaker 7: rather than contain you. So those are all steps already happening,
• 42:16
  Speaker 7: and what I'm explaining is this is what it means
• 42:19
  Speaker 7: to be a center of world power, and it's already emerging,
• 42:25
  Speaker 7: and it will take more time to consolidate, but they're
• 42:29
  Speaker 7: on a road to do that. That's my point, not
• 42:32
  Speaker 7: that they're there now. And this is the world we're
• 42:35
  Speaker 7: going to have to live with. This is a world
• 42:38
  Speaker 7: of the future that's coming, and that's my job as
• 42:41
  Speaker 7: an analyst. It's not to make it all sound all fine,
• 42:44
  Speaker 7: let's just all pat everybody's fine, Okay, let's accept reality.
• 42:48
  Speaker 7: My job is to tell you what's coming so you
• 42:51
  Speaker 7: can prepare for that reality. So why, for example, Mike,
• 42:55
  Speaker 7: Israel freak out and start assassinating leaders in Iran as
• 43:00
  Speaker 7: a result of this. I'm not telling you they're even
• 43:03
  Speaker 7: to assassinate the leaders coming on Friday. But notice they've
• 43:06
  Speaker 7: done that before. Okay, it's not on This happened just
• 43:09
  Speaker 7: literally a year ago when Israel started the Twelve Day
• 43:12
  Speaker 7: War by literally killing the exact diplomats on the weekend
• 43:17
  Speaker 7: we were about to meet with them. Now, I'm not
• 43:19
  Speaker 7: telling you that's going to happen, but things like that
• 43:22
  Speaker 7: you should expect here because Israel was the rising power.
• 43:27
  Speaker 7: Now it is the opposite. So why might Israel lash out? Well,
• 43:32
  Speaker 7: if you don't have the assessment of the world we're
• 43:35
  Speaker 7: moving into, you can't really get a good judge on
• 43:38
  Speaker 7: the risks.
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: And there's also an element of the sunk cost fallacy
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: at play too, in that what often will create escalation
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: into a hot war that lasts longer longer is the
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: idea that you see a leader, like the President of
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: the United States, whether it's Donald Trump or somebody else, saying, well,
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: I have to escalate because otherwise it looks like complete
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: and total capitulation.
• 43:59
  Speaker 6: It looks like surrender.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: To borrow the word that you just used, Professor, Based
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: on what we've seen from the leaked to MOUs, I
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: think CNN has its hands on one now as well.
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: So what's interesting is if we take the administration at
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: face value here, I'm curious for your take on this.
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: One of the things that maybe we aren't anticipating is
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: that Trump is willing to take a major loss and
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: like be viewed as somebody who has capitulated, which is
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: odd because the very cheerleaders he's been drawing nearer to
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: the Mark Levins of the world over the course of
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: the war are the ones that are devastated right now, furious,
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: devastated and raged right now by the terms of the deal.
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: And so if we again are taking the adminutes at
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: face value and say, you know, sixty days from now,
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: everything has gone according to plan, it looks like maybe
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: they didn't escalate because they took a they just became
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: comfortable taking a big loss.
• 44:51
  Speaker 6: Is there some element of that too, So.
• 44:53
  Speaker 7: There is definitely truth exactly what you said in the
• 44:56
  Speaker 7: snapshot of today. So there is no doubt that in
• 45:00
  Speaker 7: Trump is taking the loss, he's trying to shift the
• 45:03
  Speaker 7: buck to JD. Van So he's making JD. Vance carry
• 45:06
  Speaker 7: as much of the loss as possible. So that's why
• 45:10
  Speaker 7: Vance has been on like thirty two news stations in
• 45:12
  Speaker 7: the last twelve hours, okay, and defending a Rod as
• 45:16
  Speaker 7: the rational reasonable people and so forth. So that's the case.
• 45:22
  Speaker 7: But my point is a little bit broader than just
• 45:25
  Speaker 7: the snapshot of today. We're moving into an incredibly contentious
• 45:30
  Speaker 7: sixty day window. We're moving into a window where literally war,
• 45:36
  Speaker 7: a hot war, could break out at any point in
• 45:39
  Speaker 7: this sixty days here. Now, how you would know that
• 45:43
  Speaker 7: won't happen for the United States is that American forces
• 45:47
  Speaker 7: will withdraw. So if American forces leave the region, that
• 45:53
  Speaker 7: is all those the carriers leave, all those aircraft leave,
• 45:57
  Speaker 7: the ten thousand ground forces leave. If we pull out,
• 46:01
  Speaker 7: if we don't repopulate the bases that have been destroyed,
• 46:05
  Speaker 7: remember the base, A lot of bases have been destroyed. Well,
• 46:08
  Speaker 7: if that happens, then the risk of escalation will truly
• 46:12
  Speaker 7: go down. But in that window of that sixty days
• 46:15
  Speaker 7: and beyond that is where you have more losses coming
• 46:19
  Speaker 7: for President Trump, And as he gets into the midterms here,
• 46:23
  Speaker 7: the question is going to be can he keep eating
• 46:26
  Speaker 7: losses because Iran's not done giving them losses yet. Iran's
• 46:30
  Speaker 7: not saying, oh, yeah, I got what I wanted. I'm
• 46:32
  Speaker 7: good now, we're just good for the next five years. No,
• 46:35
  Speaker 7: that's not what Iran is doing here. They already are
• 46:38
  Speaker 7: putting down the markers. They want American forces out of
• 46:41
  Speaker 7: the region. They want Israel to truly be out of Lebanon.
• 46:45
  Speaker 7: They want their money. What happens if they don't get
• 46:48
  Speaker 7: their money? Is Iran simply going to say, oh, sure,
• 46:50
  Speaker 7: you promised me the money you welched on the deal,
• 46:53
  Speaker 7: but we're not gonna We're not going to close the
• 46:55
  Speaker 7: straight of hormos. So these are the issues that are
• 46:58
  Speaker 7: coming in the next sixty and beyond. And it's between
• 47:02
  Speaker 7: now in the midterms that President Trump really is going
• 47:06
  Speaker 7: to be It's going to be an issue can he
• 47:08
  Speaker 7: keep eating the losses? As you've got basically half of
• 47:12
  Speaker 7: Mega pretty upset right now and they see a big
• 47:15
  Speaker 7: loser in front of them. That's what they see. And
• 47:18
  Speaker 7: this is a problem for Trump and Maga. Will Maga
• 47:22
  Speaker 7: just suck it up and say, oh sure, we're going
• 47:25
  Speaker 7: to just kind of get behind the guy who just
• 47:28
  Speaker 7: who's got us into this big war, killed you know,
• 47:31
  Speaker 7: over a dozen of our troops one hundred billion dollars
• 47:34
  Speaker 7: and now we come out with a loss. Is that
• 47:37
  Speaker 7: going to help in the midterms? So this is this
• 47:40
  Speaker 7: is the other side of the trap, if you see
• 47:42
  Speaker 7: what I mean. So I'm not telling you he will
• 47:44
  Speaker 7: certainly escalate. That's not where I'm at and I'm not
• 47:48
  Speaker 7: advocating he escalates. I'm assessing that we're in the middle
• 47:52
  Speaker 7: game of the escalation trap. And how you would know
• 47:56
  Speaker 7: you're in the end game is not just by a
• 47:59
  Speaker 7: piece of pay paper and promises of the future. American
• 48:04
  Speaker 7: forces will physically withdraw from the region that if you
• 48:09
  Speaker 7: go back to my ex account, That's what I was
• 48:11
  Speaker 7: warning about in early February. We're building an our model.
• 48:16
  Speaker 7: I wasn't focusing on Trump's words. I said, we're likely
• 48:19
  Speaker 7: going to bomber on. That's why I started the escalation trap,
• 48:23
  Speaker 7: because we moved the troops here. Well, if we unmove
• 48:28
  Speaker 7: the troops. Now you're following the indicators that Professor Patee uses,
• 48:34
  Speaker 7: which is the behavioral indicators. That's how you'll know you're
• 48:37
  Speaker 7: actually out of the trap.
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: And I think the way that a lot of people
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: understand the escalation trap is that it's fairly determinative and
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: that each step pushes you further into it. But at
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: some point, presumably this is going to end. So like,
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: how does the model account for other decision making that
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: gets out of the escalation Trump Let's say this MoU
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: does stick. Does that mean the model was flawed and
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: need needs to be amended or are there elements within
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: the model that allow for this?
• 49:12
  Speaker 7: Yeah. The elements in the model, as I've been explaining,
• 49:15
  Speaker 7: and this is what I lay out, is you had
• 49:17
  Speaker 7: stage one. Stage two, which is stage two is where
• 49:20
  Speaker 7: Iran gets more moves. Then you're at a fork in
• 49:22
  Speaker 7: the road. Stage three, more escalation by Trump. Stage four,
• 49:26
  Speaker 7: we accept acquiesce to Iran becoming the fourth center of
• 49:30
  Speaker 7: world power, and we withdraw our forces. We literally withdraw
• 49:33
  Speaker 7: our forces. So that's the four stages that I've laid out,
• 49:37
  Speaker 7: and on my live videos, I go through this almost
• 49:40
  Speaker 7: every two weeks, so I've got the graphics and so forth.
• 49:43
  Speaker 7: I'm glad to send you the graphics, by the way.
• 49:46
  Speaker 7: And so this is where we are. We are at
• 49:48
  Speaker 7: a fork in the road, and Trump is choosing the
• 49:52
  Speaker 7: acquiescence track. And how you'll know then that the escalation
• 49:57
  Speaker 7: model is ending is when Trump withdraws the forces. That's
• 50:03
  Speaker 7: how you know that you're actually it's the end. And
• 50:07
  Speaker 7: that just hasn't happened yet. Now, maybe he'll withdraw forces
• 50:10
  Speaker 7: next week, Maybe he'll withdraw forces in thirty days. I
• 50:14
  Speaker 7: don't know. But I'm not predicting the timing. I'm predicting
• 50:18
  Speaker 7: the trajectory and the stages, and that's really that. And
• 50:22
  Speaker 7: I'm sorry, but this is the twenty years of the moment.
• 50:24
  Speaker 7: This is the only way out of this is either
• 50:28
  Speaker 7: you go forward with more escalation or you withdraw your
• 50:32
  Speaker 7: forces and you accept its acquiescence, accommodation, capitulation to a
• 50:38
  Speaker 7: stronger Iran. There's no like graceful way out where we
• 50:44
  Speaker 7: just pretend this didn't happen and suddenly we're back to
• 50:48
  Speaker 7: February twenty seven. We're not the status quo of February
• 50:52
  Speaker 7: twenty seven is not coming back. There's two status quos
• 50:56
  Speaker 7: in front of us. More war or Iran is a
• 51:00
  Speaker 7: stronger power for many years to come.
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: Professor Pape, thank you so much for reacting to breaking
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: news this morning.
• 51:08
  Speaker 6: We really really appreciate you being.
• 51:09
  Speaker 7: Here well, and thank you for having me and for
• 51:11
  Speaker 7: allowing me to explain what's essentially a model and all
• 51:15
  Speaker 7: these stages here, which is which is really quite something.
• 51:19
  Speaker 7: So thank you so much for doing that.
• 51:21
  Speaker 6: No, thank you.
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: I know our audience appreciates its appreciates it a lot,
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: so we're very grateful to you for me.
• 51:27
  Speaker 7: And if you want that graphic, just let me know
• 51:29
  Speaker 7: and then you can circulate it with this, so people
• 51:32
  Speaker 7: send me understand, just shoot me and know.
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: Okay, sounds great.
• 51:36
  Speaker 6: Thank you so much, Professor Pape.
• 51:37
  Speaker 7: Okay, all right, thanks again, bye bye.
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: So President Donald Trump is suggesting that if Israel is
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: incapable of waging war in southern Lebanon without the mass
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: killing of civilians, perhaps a former al Qaeda leader should
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: take over the task.
• 51:56
  Speaker 5: Let's roll see two here.
• 51:58
  Speaker 8: I suggested to Israel to let Siria take care of
• 52:02
  Speaker 8: hesbo Is. To be honest with you, I think they
• 52:04
  Speaker 8: do a better job.
• 52:05
  Speaker 7: Of doing it.
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: The result in Israel, across the political spectrum in the
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: media class, has been one of deep struggle. Let's roll
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: a little bit of the John Potteritz podcast.
• 52:18
  Speaker 9: Trump is now saying Bbie is indiscriminately murdering Lebanese. But
• 52:25
  Speaker 9: the Iranians are nice and they only want to help
• 52:29
  Speaker 9: their country.
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: The people who just tried to shoot down and kill
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: two of our pilots last week.
• 52:36
  Speaker 9: Yeah, of course, who who tried to assassinate him, Yeah,
• 52:42
  Speaker 9: tried to assassinate John Bolton tried Tom. I'm telling you
• 52:47
  Speaker 9: what's going on. What's going on? Is he something happened
• 52:55
  Speaker 9: and he decided that he went the wrong way, and
• 52:58
  Speaker 9: he is ratcheting himself in the other direction. And it's
• 53:03
  Speaker 9: almost as though when he was without restraint in the
• 53:08
  Speaker 9: rhetoric that he was using the militaristic rhetoric he was using,
• 53:12
  Speaker 9: I only want unconditional surrender. I'm going to bomb your civilization.
• 53:16
  Speaker 9: Da da da da da. Once he turns tail, suddenly,
• 53:21
  Speaker 9: Iran's nice gutter is brave another thing that he said today,
• 53:26
  Speaker 9: And you will always be my friend. And you were
• 53:29
  Speaker 9: so brave and so wonderful in these talks. And Israel
• 53:33
  Speaker 9: is the bad guy. So which is where he's going?
• 53:36
  Speaker 9: Like this? This is the opening South this weekend. He
• 53:40
  Speaker 9: went from Babe, is uh, you know what the effort
• 53:46
  Speaker 9: you doing and you're without judgment and now it's your
• 53:49
  Speaker 9: blowing up apartment buildings in Beirut And the Iranians are
• 53:53
  Speaker 9: really nice?
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: Did you hear any music there? Almost felt like I
• 53:57
  Speaker 5: heard some music there?
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: And any man Ryan had a vision to melt down
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: unfolded at MSNBC as well. It wasn't confined just to
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: the podcast spaces. Let's roll the Heartbreak from Tom Nichols
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: here at six.
• 54:09
  Speaker 9: How you characterize this kind of settlement other than the
• 54:13
  Speaker 9: Iranians got what they wanted, the Americans didn't, and that's
• 54:17
  Speaker 9: where we're going from here.
• 54:18
  Speaker 6: And then Higar, what does that mean for the Lebanese?
• 54:21
  Speaker 12: Yeah, it's a disaster actually in so many ways. So
• 54:24
  Speaker 12: Tom mentioned here that the Israelis are now being held back,
• 54:27
  Speaker 12: and it sounds a lot of people it sounds like
• 54:30
  Speaker 12: a ceasfire would be a good thing, right Normally, that
• 54:31
  Speaker 12: sounds like something you'd want in Lebanon or anywhere. But
• 54:34
  Speaker 12: the fact is that if we focus on Lebanon specifically,
• 54:36
  Speaker 12: it's not there's no deal.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: Over on Twitter and Telegram and Facebook, it's continuing a pace.
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: Put up C three for some instructive elements of this one.
• 54:48
  Speaker 5: Here's one.
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: Everyone, and I mean everyone in Israel feels a profound
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: sense of betrayal today from all across the political spectrum,
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: from every walk of life. Everyone history proves, says Michael
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: Laura and the former ambassador to Washington, Israel has no
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: choice but to risk an open confrontation with Trump. An
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: apology from your American Jewish parents ran in the times
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: of Israel. We are here, among other things, to defend
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: you too. In the end, that this is your real
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: home that she's addressing wit Coffin Kushner, whose real home
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: is the United States of America. This is weird, and
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: we are guarding it for you and for your future generations.
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: And you turn your backs on us like this, simply losers. Unfortunately,
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: she goes when we were wrong, we became comfortable, and
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: over the past two decades we fell asleep at the wheel.
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: We missed the signs, and we owe you an apology.
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: Israel was winning war after war, building up its economy,
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: growing in Torah and Mitzbot. At the same time, the West,
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: especially American and Europe, was falling into an abyss of
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: immorality and godlessness. Jerusalem Post had quote sold their brothers
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: Israeli right wing figures brand Witkoff Kushner as losers over
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: Iran deal. Kushner Witcoff really coming in for some serious
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: abuse here.
• 56:13
  Speaker 6: It's tough. It's tough to be done.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: Laura Lumer not taking it well. She watched a clip
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: of the World Cup.
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: Iran.
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: After scoring an equalizer, one of their players did the
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: old pistol thing to the ground and to the crowd.
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: And Umer said that well.
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: Lumer replied, Lumer insane that these freaks are allowed to
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: come to the US. By the way, they detained the
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: guy who scored the goal for like seven hours and
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: he still scored, and they wouldn't They were not even
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: letting the Iranians sleep here like they have to fly
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: in and fly immediately back out.
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: But Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkoff are negotiating with them simultaneously,
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: and we're cutting a deal with them three hundred billion
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: dollars for economic development, unfreezing assets, lifting sanctions, and you
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: can see why the tears are flowing, no question about it.
• 57:04
  Speaker 6: My question is really the rallying.
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: Around Trump that some of his biggest critics in the
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: last twenty four hours have done since February.
• 57:13
  Speaker 6: You look at that and he just asked, what did
• 57:15
  Speaker 6: you think was going to happen? What did you think
• 57:18
  Speaker 6: was going to happen?
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: Were you so confident that Donald Trump was going to
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: do the full netan Yahoo? And I mean you and
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: I obviously still have criticisms of what.
• 57:28
  Speaker 6: Trump is doing.
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: It's not as though we're like, wow, man, Donald Trump
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: such a realist.
• 57:32
  Speaker 6: He's really given the finger to the neo conservatives. So
• 57:35
  Speaker 6: he did the war. He did the war.
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: But if you're Donald Trump, you're probably looking at Mark
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: Levin now and you're like, huh, maybe I shouldn't.
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: Have listened to you.
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: Yes, and I a lot you're hearing on that a
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: lot in the Israeli political class, that net Nyahuo sold
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: Trump a bridge, Yeah, Trump bought it, and that he's
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: not going to be able to sell Trump any more bridges,
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: and that he's really burned that bridge.
• 58:02
  Speaker 5: In fact, put up C four.
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: I meant, Siegel, who's you know, the journalist who is
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: closest to President Trump. I'm into Prime Minister Benjamin at
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: Yahoo posted in Hebrew, which Sager helpfully translated here. Claude
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: helps Sager translate. Of course, I mean, I'm not claiming
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: Sager speaks Hebrew. Finding that the support for Trump is collapsing,
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: within three weeks, he went from what plus basically twenty
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: five minus twenty five you know, give her take a
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: few like an absolutely incredible turnaround.
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: Trump hates it when people don't like him, So as jd.
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: Events shares this information with him, I think Trump's position
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: is probably just going to harden.
• 58:54
  Speaker 5: On this question.
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: I don't think this is going to soften him. Like
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: he likes people who dislikes people who dislike him. It's
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: pretty much that simple. He was fantasizing recently about maybe
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: he'd run for a prime minister in Israel because he
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: has ninety nine percent approval rating over there.
• 59:12
  Speaker 5: That was several weeks ago.
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: I think that his campaign is much less tenable at
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: this point if.
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: He wanted to run.
• 59:21
  Speaker 7: Now.
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: This has actual, i think practical, real world implications here
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: because the domestic politics now inside Israel are going to
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: push not just Netnahu but other candidates for prime minister
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: to try to draw daylight between themselves and the United States.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: For decades, the way that you became prime minister in
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: Israel was to say, I am the most loyal to
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: the president. The president likes me the most, and so
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: I will forge the best relationship with the United States.
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: Like that was the thing that you would argue now
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: and then you have your position for and against the
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: different domestic policies. But when it came to the foreign policy,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: the idea was I am the one that can build
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: a relationship with the United States, and men yeah would
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: always say, truck, just leave the Americans to me. I
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: know how to work the Americans. Now, nen Yaho is
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: more popular than Trump, and nen Yao is not very popular,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: so net Yaho's incentivized to say I am the one
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: who will stand up to Trump.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: Then what does he have to do do?
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: Something does he continue the war in Lebanon he refuse
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: to withdraw troops, And then what does Trump do because
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: if Iran says, well, then that's over our red line.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: We're attacking Israel. Does Trump now that net Yaho is
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: fully broken with him? Does Trump attack Iran on Netnyaho's
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: behalf if he's out campaigning against him, Or does Israel
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: now have to wage a war against a run by
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: itself with its as as we reported, they're down to
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: double digit ballistic missile interceptors. They rely on the US
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: Navy's ballistic missile interceptors, and in order to carry out
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: their bombing runs on Iran, they need refueling help from
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: the US. Recently, when they struck Iran, if you notice
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: they did it from Western Iraq because they couldn't refuel.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: That's much more expensive. You're using expensive munitions. The munitions
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: have a lower payload because they have to travel then
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: much further.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 5: You know, if you can just fly right over top.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: Gianic B fifty two and just B two and just
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: drop the heaviest stuff you've got, that's going to have
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: the most impact. If you have to fire a missile
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: from Western Iraq from a plane that has to then
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: turn around and go home. It's easier to intercept, it's
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: less accurate, and it's going to have a lower payload.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: So that's what Israel's left, and it's more against Iran.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: Iran still sitting with a bunch of its hypersonic ballistic
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: missiles and Israel's depleted. But like I said, domestic politics
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: push Netahu in that direction, but its disasters to his
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: foreign policy, like he really screwed himself.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: And some of this is yet to be determined because
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: we don't know. We've covered this over the course of
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: the show today, like we don't know what happens in
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: the next sixty days. We don't know if Trump actually
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: does end up capitulating somewhat to Netsan Yahu things zoom
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: in Lebanon. It all falls apart, but it's just less
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: high profile, similar to what's happened in Gaza. He's able
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: to get the deal, say he got the deal. He's
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: trumpeted peace deals around the world that don't actually totally materialize.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: It's just the point that he's able to say I
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: orchestrated X, Y and Z, and that's what he wants
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: to do and do I think that he wants to
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: have some long term solution to the problem. Is that
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: his ideal, probably, but does he really care at the
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: end of the day if that turns out to crumble.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: If he's also able to say I did this, I
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: brought people to the table, they had all the incentives
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: and they just didn't want to make a deal, that's
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: also probably something he's satisfied with at the end of
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: the day, less satisfied of worse than being able to
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: be remembered as the president who brought peace to the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: Midlist or whatever. He thinks that his vision of piece
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: in the Middle East looks like Mara Gaza, whatever that
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: was or is actually because that seems to still be
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: the plan.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 6: Hard to know. But anyway, all this is to say,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 6: you look at how people have been.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: Treating Trump, who are supporters of the robusts Israeli American
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: Alliance over the last couple of months, like he is the.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 6: Hero, the visionary.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: All of his haters are in they are disintegrating the coalition,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: they're being selfish. The pushback is anti Trump, and now
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: some of these same people are doing pushback and saying
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: that Trump is abandoning Israel. They're furious you heard pet
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: Wortz and Eli La who, by the way, we invited
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: to come on the show today. We will keep asking
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: him to come on because yeah, yeah, distant by marriage,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: I think, right, yeah, And so we want to bring
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: somebody on who's going to make this.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: My cousin won't even come on the project.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 6: And so we'll keep we'll trying to make that happen.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: But they're furious that Trump said Syria might be a
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: better Uh, Syria might have a better or might be
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: a better protector of Lebanon or a guaranter of peace
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: to some extent in Lebanon than Israel.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 6: That is infuriating, infuriating.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: Trump's kind of guys cares more about civilian casualties.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 6: It's a it's.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: A realist perspective though, right, like he's saying, here, you
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 4: have a country that is able to relate to this
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: kind of We can say it's dumb, but like it's
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: These are the same people who were saying Trump was
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: a genius for the last two months, So which is it?
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: Also Siria is not going to do this, by the way,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: because Syria would rather have Israel fighting Hesbola in southern
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: Lebanon than marching than bombing Damascus, and they continue to
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: occupy goal On Heights and and and a lot of
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: area north of that they're pushing like very close to Damascus.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 7: Like so.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: The second that Al Shara went in and took care
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: of Hesbela, for which of course they can't remotely do,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: but let's say they did, then Israel would.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: Just start bombing Damascus.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: So like, it's interesting that even though Assad and al
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: Shara are completely ideologically different and we're at war with
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: each other, and that Israel saw Al Shara coming in
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: as advantageous compared to Asad because Asad was part of
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: the Axis of Resistance. He has the same geostrategic logic
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: as Asad did to kind of allow either. And Mas
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: has been pointing this out at drop side, either by
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: neglect or by design, the supply lines between Iran and
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: Hesbola seem intact because like you're seeing drone technology and
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: other military equipment appearing in southern Lebanon that Iran only
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: recently developed, which means it's getting from Iran somehow over
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 3: to southern leben and the and the whole point of
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: overthrowing a SOD for Israel was to cut off that
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: supply line, but they then so weakened Siria that even
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: if they wanted to, they can't like a SOD controls
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: like it live been damaskets basically, and.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: Stop projecting your ideological shar Yeah, stop projecting your ideological
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: wishes onto Trump, because he's going to reflect them temporarily
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: at any given point, and then reflect your opponent temporarily
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: at any given point, because he's not a hardened ideologue.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: So anytime you're claiming some big ideological victory with Trump,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: you're taking a risk because you're gonna have egg on
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: your face in all likelihood three weeks later. Even people
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: now who are saying Trump is giving Israel the middle
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: finger will have egg on their face at some point
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: again because he's going to do something nice to Nats
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: and Yahoo.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 6: Get the man is not hardened ideologue.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: He is totally doing what he thinks is pragmatic at
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: any giving point, and that logic can often be hard
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: to follow. But if you're going to start mocking people
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 4: for being wrong about Trump and being spurned by Trump,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: you will also end up being mocked and spurned by Trump.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: Last thing, because you know we're going to get moving.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: What is this doing to the Republican coalition? Like where
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: like is Tucker kind of coming out on top here?
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: Or is the break between Trump and the Tucker world
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: so personal that even if they wind up on the
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: same side again, it can't be repaired.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 5: Like what's what's the status here?
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: I mean some of the same people we were just
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: talking about were furious that Jdvance even went on Megan
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: Kelly's show.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 5: Yes, right, Furious it would be dangerous even for him
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: to do that.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 4: Curious furious about the fact that he sat down with
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: somebody who's books critical, Yeah, got books, Ryan knows the ground,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: critical of this war. And one of the things that
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: JD said to Megan issutries that he told Trump he
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: was going on the show, and Trump said, absolutely, I
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: love that that.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 6: JD said, h he'll say.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: Nice things about you when he agrees when you agree
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: with him, and he'll say bad things about you when
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: you don't agree with.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 6: Him as he is.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: And so a talk about Tucker, he's.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 6: Talking about the president.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: And so if I mean, you don't understand that at
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: this point, then you just are blind to the last
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: ten years of Trump.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 6: Meghan was like, yeah, I don't mind it.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: Because if you are watching trip closely, you kind of
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: understand that's how this works.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 6: So I don't know.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: I think Tucker's so totally blackpilled by the war, which
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: is something JD criticized people for being quote blackpilled, not
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: Tucker by name, but being black pilled by the fact
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: that the war was launched in the first place. I
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: think there's some people who are just off the bandwagon
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 4: because of that. I don't think mass he gets back
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: in the coalition or Tucker gets back in the coalition.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: I think there's a thaw probably in some of these relationships.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: Even the fact that JD did go on Megan Sure
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: yesterday says he's willing to take some of the questions
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: and talk to some of the people who have been
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 4: critical of the administration. So I don't think it's a
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: complete disaster for the Mega Coalition in terms of like
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: some people sticking around.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 6: But I also think just the decision to.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: Launch the war in and of itself was a bridge
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: that was burned with a lot of people, period, and
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: you're not gonna be able to recon shrucked that
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: H