Latest / Best of Business / Rupert Carlyon: What's the first step for wanna-be investors?

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Rupert Carlyon: What's the first step for wanna-be investors? · Best of Business

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  Speaker 4: you to give us a call. There are two a
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  Speaker 4: couple of things we're going to talk about, which well,
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: there everything's overlap because it's all about money, because there's
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: a lot of conversation around the increase of money into
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: key we Saver and the policies around you know how
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  Speaker 4: that's going to be upped in terms of a percentage
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  Speaker 4: of our income and gradually so more and more money
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  Speaker 4: is going to key we Saver, which is a philosophy
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  Speaker 4: and a general wellbeing of the country, is something we
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  Speaker 4: sort of go, well, it's a good thing, but actually.
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  Speaker 3: Can we afford it? Can you afford it?
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  Speaker 4: People say, look, you need to put an extra, you
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  Speaker 4: need to put money, more money.
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  Speaker 3: Into your key we saver.
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  Speaker 4: How are you managing the idea of saving for your
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: retirement when there is Regardless of what Kelly I think
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: it's Kelly Echold at Westpac said that the cost of
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: living crisis is I think he I think the comment
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: was not was it that it was over but that's
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: something stopped and I'm like, hang on a minute, there's
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: if we imagine a wall has been constructed, they haven't
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: knocked the wall down, they just haven't put any more
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  Speaker 4: bricks in the wall. Speaking of Pink Floyd, by the way,
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  Speaker 4: with money there we need to play the war gosh.
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  Speaker 4: I love a segue that is so much confluence and
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  Speaker 4: that it's just magic. But also the other the other
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  Speaker 4: question around Key Weber because key we Saver. Of course
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  Speaker 4: you can invest in different style funds. And my guest
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  Speaker 4: Jo'm about to introduce he is well is he famous
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  Speaker 4: for having a fund that's linked to but coin? I
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  Speaker 4: can't remember, but it was, you know, one of the
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  Speaker 4: more out there parts of his of his funds. But
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  Speaker 4: there's been a lot of the general ViBe's Kei we Saver.
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  Speaker 4: And the way it's structured is you know, safer than
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  Speaker 4: most even regardless of your risk profile. So you can
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  Speaker 4: be high risk and yet you know your money's not
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  Speaker 4: just suddenly going to evaporate really and so but one
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  Speaker 4: of the other bits of advice around investing, if we
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  Speaker 4: step aside from Kii Saver, and people will have exposed
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: to what we're about to talk to through their QS
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  Speaker 4: saber ironically. But the indexed funds, and the advice that
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  Speaker 4: we often indulge in in this show is that, well, look,
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  Speaker 4: just invest. If you look, for instance, if you'd invested
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  Speaker 4: in the S and P five years ago, you'd be
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  Speaker 4: doing pretty well indexed funds. Because the indexed funds are
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  Speaker 4: cross there's the doo I don't know. There's all sorts
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  Speaker 4: of funds which cover a range of investments to the
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  Speaker 4: extent which naturally builds in a sense of security that
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  Speaker 4: you're never really going to die if one particular stock
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  Speaker 4: goes badly. But there was the revelation that I think
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  Speaker 4: it's the top ten spots stocks and the S and
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  Speaker 4: P five hundred and S and P five hundred I
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  Speaker 4: think means that there are five hundred stocks the top
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  Speaker 4: ten now account for over forty percent of the entire index,
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  Speaker 4: which is more than double what it was in nineteen
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  Speaker 4: ninety was nineteen percent.
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  Speaker 3: So that's actually still quite a whack.
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  Speaker 4: But anyway, looking at it from a different different angle,
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  Speaker 4: combining all the tech companies also adds up to forty
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  Speaker 4: percent of the index.
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  Speaker 3: So we're going to have.
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  Speaker 4: A chat about just spreading your risk in fact, if
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  Speaker 4: you spread it, are you just shooting yourself in the FOOTOK,
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  Speaker 4: because you I'm not going to have those wonderful top
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  Speaker 4: ten stocks anyway to discuss all that, to take your questions,
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  Speaker 4: break it all down. He's founder and manager of Courra Wealth,
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  Speaker 4: and he's Rupert Carlyon, and he's with me now.
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  Speaker 5: Rupert, Hello, good evening.
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  Speaker 4: Did I make sense with that what I said there
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  Speaker 4: in terms of explaining a few of the questions we had?
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  Speaker 3: Or was I did? I? As I was talking, I
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  Speaker 3: was thinking, God, I had this makes sense?
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  Speaker 5: It made sense? So it was. It was a good rant.
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  Speaker 5: Actually I thought it was good.
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  Speaker 3: Good rant there, They're great.
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  Speaker 5: No, you raised some pretty interesting questions.
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  Speaker 4: Well, I think that the stat when you realize, I mean,
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  Speaker 4: that's quite remarkable that the top ten out of five
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  Speaker 4: hundred out of five hundred, in other words, that's fewer
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  Speaker 4: than that's like the top two in every hundred, isn't it.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and they account for forty percent? Whoa wow.
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  Speaker 5: Look, I think there's a couple of things in that though, right.
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  Speaker 5: One is that so as a financial advisor, we would
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  Speaker 5: always say investing only in the S and P five hundred, Yeah,
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  Speaker 5: is not proper diversification as well. So if we were
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  Speaker 5: to break that and say, actually, you want a global
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  Speaker 5: exposure versus only having an S and P five hundred, Okay,
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  Speaker 5: so I think excellent. We there's kind of two points,
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  Speaker 5: which is one is there's very few people would ever
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  Speaker 5: recommend just go only the S and P five hundred.
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  Speaker 5: You also want to kind of if you want a
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  Speaker 5: global fund because sometimes things happen in the US. A
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  Speaker 5: lot of people disagree with that after what's happened in
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  Speaker 5: the last fifteen years.
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  Speaker 4: But I think what the reason I said that was
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  Speaker 4: because it was not so much advice to people, it
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  Speaker 4: was the hindsight. Look, if you'd been in the S
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  Speaker 4: and P five hundred of the last five years, you've
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  Speaker 4: made a killer. But of course future performance. Past performance
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  Speaker 4: is no guarantee.
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  Speaker 5: Of future and I think, but you're right in that
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  Speaker 5: the stock market, so the stock US stock market still
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  Speaker 5: makes up sixty five percent of the global stock market,
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  Speaker 5: so it is still the place to play. But I
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  Speaker 5: think we've also got to remember these companies, these amount
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  Speaker 5: of size and cash that these companies are spitting out,
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  Speaker 5: it's like nothing that's ever been seen before. Now, I mean,
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  Speaker 5: you've got a business like Microsoft. Microsoft is doing more
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  Speaker 5: revenue than the entire New Zealand GDP, and they're doing
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  Speaker 5: it at humongous margins. These companies are spitting out kind
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  Speaker 5: of two hundred hundred and fifty billion US dollars a
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  Speaker 5: year in free cash flow. So we go, yeah, so
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  Speaker 5: this is there is concentration. But I would argue there
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  Speaker 5: are strong reasons for that because the world has never
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  Speaker 5: seen cash machines like these compriies.
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  Speaker 4: So don't freak out because a few companies are massive.
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  Speaker 5: Don't freak out. It would be my my role.
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  Speaker 4: Interesting you mentioned Microsoft because when the conversations around tech,
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  Speaker 4: it seems to be one of those I mean, look,
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  Speaker 4: we've got Microsoft everywhere, but I actually haven't really heard
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  Speaker 4: disc I haven't really heard any talk around you know.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not going to use the I'll use
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  Speaker 4: the cliche the water cooler talk. I haven't heard Microsoft
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  Speaker 4: talk in the water around the water cooler for a
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  Speaker 4: long time. It's just one of these monsters in the
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  Speaker 4: background that everyone goes, oh, yeah, it's Microsoft.
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  Speaker 5: As an investor, you love monsters in the background that
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  Speaker 5: no one thinks about. Really, I mean, yeah, so Microsoft
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  Speaker 5: is is a really interesting one, right, So they data
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  Speaker 5: center's Windows Office three six five Office three six five
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  Speaker 5: alone or Microsoft Office. It's got over four hundred million
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  Speaker 5: installed users and you go just that as a base.
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  Speaker 5: It is absolutely humongous. So it is one of these
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  Speaker 5: companies that because it is just kind of it just
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  Speaker 5: operates in the background that we need it to do.
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  Speaker 5: It's not the sexy one. It's not the one that
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  Speaker 5: everyone thinks about, like a Google or Amazon, which we're
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  Speaker 5: going to and kind of logging into every day. We
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  Speaker 5: actually are, most of us are logging into Microsoft. We
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  Speaker 5: just don't really think about it because it's become so
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  Speaker 5: ingrained and everything that we do.
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  Speaker 3: Isn't it funny? I mean, you go into a workplace
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  Speaker 3: and of course it's Windows. You know, we the log
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  Speaker 3: in kind of the way you go and then.
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  Speaker 4: You do and yeah, actually, you know the reason I
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  Speaker 4: have just now that you've reminded me about Microsoft is
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  Speaker 4: because I just I'm not sure I'm actually that happy
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: Microsoft just every you know, the number of updates and
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: all the stuff on my computer and restarts and some
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: problem here and there and go. And I actually was
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  Speaker 4: saying to myself, God, have Microsoft drop the ball or something,
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  Speaker 4: but apparently not.
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  Speaker 5: Oh, to be honest, Microsoft everon't hate Microsoft, but it's
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: the the what's the expression, Look, it's the beast you
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: have to have. No one likes them. And that's why
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: a lot of people are actually moving to the Google
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  Speaker 5: Suite and Google Docs and all of those kind of things.
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: The problem is you get people like Googles.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, you're still on the Microsoft operating system.
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: I don't even know.
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know there are other operating systems, but
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: in the workplace, how many places would be using something
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: other than Microsoft?
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  Speaker 5: Almost only Max and very few people are on Max.
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  Speaker 4: I mean that's the death start for me. I was
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: just that you're either an Apple lover or not, aren't you?
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah? Just yes, your answer at depends. So you get
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: people like us who've spent our entire lives on in
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: the Windows ecosystem.
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: You office.
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: I've spent had million or not millions, hundreds of thousands
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: of dollars on training for me to get myself used
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: to the Microsoft office, and so am I going to move? No?
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: It's almost like back in this you know, sixteen hundreds.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: I look at the rivalry between the Catholic and the
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: Protestant churches. It's almost the modern day equivalent is like
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: are you an Apple or micro Apple or Windows you know.
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: Or Chrome. Chrome is the next one that's coming up, right,
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: which actually is really interesting because and then you go
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: so that's why the Google strategy is so smart, where
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: they're basically going Google and schools and so the very
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: if they give everyone in the schools, like my kids
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: will desperately want a Chromebook. They've all got Google accounts
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: that Google's given them for free, so that just Google docs.
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  Speaker 5: All of the reasons that I'm a huge Microsoft fan
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: is because I've used it my whole life. My kids
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: are going to be.
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: Going to be our dad's I'm still on Microsoft Dinosaur.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, god, I never thought of that.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, it's anyway I've got off the topic. But actually,
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: well no, we're not.
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: Off the topic, but.
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  Speaker 5: I think we go so when we talk about forty
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: percent of the market being ten companies, it does need
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: that context that we have these ten companies, of which
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: not all of them are the tech guys, but those
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: big kind of the Microsoft, Amazon, Google, those three in particular,
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: and Meta, I mean meta strategically, you've got some issues.
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: But and actually now in video meta it is Facebook. Okay, thanks,
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  Speaker 5: So between those five you've just never ever seen a
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: level of profitability like what we have before.
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: So how you won't know the answer to this question
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: off the top of your head, I wouldn't imagine. But
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: how many index funds? How many index funds are there?
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: And within the realms of sanity, you know?
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  Speaker 5: Well, look, so then we go, let's kind of talk
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: about index funds. The k so index funds. Not only
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: is one?
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: That's one?
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: That is one?
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: How many are.
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: There'd be thousands and thousands of really? So a good example, right,
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: And actually so they're just buying their plain S and
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: P five hundred. That's by far and away the most popular.
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: That's standard and paor isn't.
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: Ye stand so the top five hundred companies in the.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: US, I've got that Wrong'd be people listening.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: Where was this class doesn't stand for anyway?
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: But look, you can buy there'll be there will be
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: a couple of thousand different variations of the S and
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: P five hundred that.
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: You can PERSI an S P two fifty P one hundred.
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: No, so the biggen ex is but the beginner season
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: in the US are the S and P five hundred,
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: which is five hundred top companies. Then you've got the
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: Russell two thousand, which takes in the top two thousand,
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: and then the Russell three thousand.
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  Speaker 3: God, that sounds like too many players spoiling that it is.
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: But you've got eight thousand listed companies in the US,
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: so actually there's a it's a big market with a
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: lot there. And then you've also got the Dow Jones
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: industrials and I can't remember how many are there, but
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: I think that's fifty.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: Okay, but that's what are the texts? What's the tech stop.
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: One that's on? Then the Nasdack Naisdack's kind of where
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: you've got the largest. You've got the Nastack one hundred,
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: which is the largest one hundred technology based companies as well.
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: Do companies come and go from the from the hundred
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: then how do they? How does that happen and with
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: what regularity?
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: So if we're going to get into this, well it's
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: a great question of the technicality. We love well, we
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: know we're getting into the super technical here, which will
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: lose people. But anyway, so I don't.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: Think so let's crack on.
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: So how in Inexus normally, so the big one, say
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: the sn P five hundred and the Nasdaq one hundred.
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: How what you do is there's a thing in finance
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: which we call free float, and so the free float
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: is how many shares are available to be traded on
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: the market at any point in time. And so if
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: you've got a very large strategic holding for a shareholder,
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: for example, it's excluded from the free float. And so
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: what they do is they rank these companies based on
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: the free float market cap. So if and that's how
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: they're kind of included or excluded inside the Nasdaq or
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: the s and P five hundred has got some profitability
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: metrics and well as well that go into it. And
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: you need to have been trading for a year.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: So every year, every quoting is floating quite regularly, and
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: so and companies come in and out of it.
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: So every quarter they'll do a rebalance, and so there'll
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: be a couple will come out, a couple will come in,
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: depending on kind.
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: Of where when you say a hundred percent, you're really
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: mean point two five percent. I'm just joking up two
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: point anyway. I mean in terms of the number of companies.
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, it's always coming. It's always it's
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: always coming in and out right, and so you've always
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: got people coming in, and so as a company, you
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: always want to be included because the moment that you're
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: included in something like the S and P five hundred
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: or the Nasdek one hundred, there's just a wall of
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: money that comes at you. So you think SpaceX was
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: a really good example right where Elon Musk's beIN years
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: lobbying both the S and P five hundred, s and
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: P and Nazdak to see if it could be included
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: in the in the indices immediately, and actually S and
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: P said no, you're going to have to wait the
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: normal twelve months now.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: Because it's so huge.
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: N as Dak said, yes, you can come on board
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: because you're going to list on the Nasdak. And I
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: think they made them wait a month, but basically because
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: what happens is it's not just the index funds.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: Well, there's a good.
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: Reason for waiting too, isn't he Because there's a We
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: saw the hysteria with Elon Musk's stocks where.
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: Well where are they at now? Because they went.
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: Up, they went down there, down there what they started
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: they started, So they listed at one thirty five. I
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: think they got up to about one eighty, and I
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: think now that it might be down off the top
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: of my head, might be about one ten at the moment.
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: So they're below the listing price now.
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: And that's a very good reason for the rule being
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: in place, because otherwise you get a level of hysteria
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: introduced into.
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: Very often you'll get dust area. But you're what because
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: it's not just index funds that follow an index. So
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: as a fund manager, if you because we have to
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: report against that our performance against the index, so we
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: will always benchmark. If you're an actively managed manager even
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: and so you're picking and choosing your stocks, if something's
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: included in the index, you can't ignore it because that's
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: what you're judged against. And so it's not just the
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: index funds that creates the wall of money. It's actually
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: the moment it's inside the index, you'll get all of
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: the active managers that will also do it. So being
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: inside the index is an extremely powerful thing.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: So does it skew the pic? I mean, you've just talked.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: About a company makes one of these indexed funds, and
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: you've set to about this wall of money. How does
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: it that sounds like it's quite an interesting external pressure
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: that suddenly what does it do to a company and how.
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: The share price pops. So almost always so it'll either
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: do it into the leader to getting into the index
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: or at the time of entering the index because you've
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: got all of these people that now have to invest
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: in you.
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: So what happens when it exits the opposite? So, if
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: you know what a company is about to go onto
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred, if you could have
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: a crystal ball, you could make a lot of money.
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but everyone knows that, right, So market to the
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: markets are.
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: What everyone's predicting this company is going to be doing it.
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: Well because we all do the maths, so you kind
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: of know, you know where people are sitting, and because
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: you know the quarterly rebalance, you know the rebalance states,
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: you know where everything sits, you know all of the rules,
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: and so basically what happens is that everyone kind of
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: does the exercise long before the S and P announce
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: what the rebalancing will be.
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: So there'd be a whole part of the market, which
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: is people whose jobs are literally to look for the
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: companies that are going to be going in and out
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: of the of the index. Really people make a lot
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: of money out of that.
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: Well, so I think, yessw the clever gut they are
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: but market but because there's so many people doing it,
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: and everyone's doing it. Short answer, because it's kind of
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: a relatively it's a simple calculation, so everyone's doing it.
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: So and when everyone's doing something, the kind of the
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: buyers and sellers met each other off. So therefore the
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: ultra normal profits disappear.
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, it does play back to that notion that
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: we often I think it's always worth reminding people because
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: people think, oh, I'm going to get in early and
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: I'll beat everyone else into it. And your point of
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: view would be as an experience somebody's experienced, and you
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: never beat the market. The market is way too quick
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: unless you gamble on it, you know.
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: And it's sky. So what's the biggest analogy for this
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: is actually AI advice at the moment. So what happens
• 18:50
  Speaker 5: is people put go into chet GPT or claud and
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: say I want some investment tips, give me six investment tips,
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: and it'll give them the tips because it's going to
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: scan the internet to everything else that everyone has put
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: the eight ball already at the moment that a chet
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: GPT is telling you that something is amazing, it's telling
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: you that because everyone else thinks it's amazing, which means
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: you're done.
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: God, that's fascinating, isn't it.
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: It's actually it's probably the I mean chat GPT and
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: it's implaued and the other ones. Their ability to harvest
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: information is an incredibly powerful tool. But of course, if
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: they're harvesting information, it's information that's already been acted on.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: It's out there, so don't use it for investors.
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: So if you believe markets are efficient, which I do,
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: which means that you kind of all of the information
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: is in the market, then actually the way as an
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: investor you need to be taking a view that's different
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: to everyone else.
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, wow, I see. I don't know about you who listening.
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: I think this is incredibly interesting stuff because all we hear,
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: you know, a lot of the time when people talking
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: about oh the S and P fifty is doing X.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: One said, and you sort of do you really know
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: what it is? Well, I get a feeling that I
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: know a little bit more about it. So, by the way,
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: we'd love you to join the conversation. Although I'm not
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: sure what the question is any longer.
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: I think it is.
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: Well, the other thing is how you going with your
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: with your investment and the idea of sticking more money
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: into your key we save because the cost of living crisis, apparently,
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: according to Summer, is over, which is what's the technical expression,
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: Oh that's right, bollocks. Twenty seven past five News Talk
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: ZB News Talk zed B. This is Tim Beveridge and
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: I'm with Rupert Carly and we're talking about funds and well,
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: the bigger, the simple question for you out there is
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: how are you going with investing with the cost of
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: living crisis? Are you managing to put extra money into
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: q we saber? But based on the conversation we've been
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: having just now about index funds, we're going to take
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: your calls on.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: Have you ever beaten the market?
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: Because Rupert was saying that no one ever beats the
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: market these days, the market's always quicker. But before that,
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: it ties into this question, are you worried about funding
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: a comfortable retirement? One interesting solution is to invest in
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: an income fund like the Harbor Income Fund from the
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: experts at Harbor Asset Management. It works beholding a mix
• 21:12
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• 21:15
  Speaker 4: to generate a steady and sustainable income no matter the market.
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: The Harbor Income Fund is actively managed and currently it
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: pays a distribution of four point five percent per annum
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: after fees and tax paid out in monthly installments. You
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: also get the peace of mind knowing your future is
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: in the hands of morning Stars Overall Fund Manager of
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• 21:35
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• 21:37
  Speaker 4: To find out more about Harbor's Income Fund, head to
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: Harbor Asset dot co dot Nz or speak with your
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: financial advisor. This is not intended as personalized advice. The
• 21:46
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• 21:51
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• 21:57
  Speaker 4: And that is the company as I say that, as
• 21:59
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• 22:01
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• 22:05
  Speaker 3: Nz sell beverage.
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: Yes, indeed, actually funny enough, that's the That's one of
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: the big awards for a morning Morning Star. Rupert Carlin
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: from Coury, you guys got a did you get some
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: sort of niche award at the Morning Stars for hang
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: on a second, I'll turn your microphone on that.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: Ay, Alps, Yeah, we've had a good week. We the
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: Morning Star. What they do is every quarter they release
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: the results, so they rank every single key we Save
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: a fund up against each other, and we're extremely lucky
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: that our clean energy fund got the top Q we
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: Save a fund of the last twelve months, delivering an
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: almost one hundred percent return bloody hell. And then but
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: more importantly because no guaranteed guarantee, but actually our Strategic
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: High Growth fund got the number one for the aggressive
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: category as well, delivering a twenty five percent return over
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: the last twelve months. So lot markets are pretty kind
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: to us at the moment.
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: One undred percent clean, well done you.
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: Well.
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: It's awesome though, because clean energy and the post Trump
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: world everyone thought was dead.
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: But actually actually that does tie into the whole thing.
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: It doesn't matter, it's it just doesn't matter what politicians say.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: The market works. And so even if Trump is out
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: there doing saying whatever he says about the green stuff,
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: people investing in it. That's I mean, there's that's shown
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: people putting their money where they.
• 23:27
  Speaker 5: Mount exactly, and so I mean the sector is being
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: what's because the large tech companies which we were talking
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: about before, have got building these massive data centers that
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: need a whole lot of clean energy to power them.
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: And so the clean energy world is going absolutely gamebusters
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: right now.
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: I've got a trivial text which is quite fun.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: Me.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: We're talking about Microsoft and crime and all that sort
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: of stuff, and we're talking about operating platforms, and Brian says, Tim,
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: kick Microsoft into touch and switch to Linux.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Linux. Linux. The best thing I ever did say is Brian, I.
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: Have actually heard of it, Brian, and I do hear
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: people say that they love it.
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: It's a bit more of a I think you've got
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: to be I think you've got to be pretty skilled
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: to use Linux.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Really, it's not Linux.
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: I've got no idea. I was you.
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: I think it's Linux like Peanuts, you know Linup. Isn't
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: there a character in Peanuts called Linus?
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: Or is there Linus?
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: I don't know what am I.
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: Making it up as a go on, I'm completely off topic.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: Let's get back on it with a caller.
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: Charlie.
• 24:21
  Speaker 6: Hi, Yes, good evening goes. How are you?
• 24:24
  Speaker 7: Hi?
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Hi?
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: Good? Thank you?
• 24:27
  Speaker 6: Hello? Hello, Hey. My question is I'm fifty one years old.
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: I have sold my home and I've bought a motor home,
• 24:36
  Speaker 6: I've paid off for my debt, and I work full
• 24:39
  Speaker 6: time and I have three hundred k to invest.
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: Oh okay, I will Before before Rupert comments, we have
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: to advise you that we won't be giving any specific
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: financial advice because it's against the rules, but we can
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: make some general comments and Rupert can. I'll leave it
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: over to you. Rupert, you're the expert.
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: Look first and foremost, I think you've got to figure
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: out what you want that three hundred thousand dollars for.
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: Is it something that you you'd intend to use to
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: on as you travel around the world in your motor home,
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: or is it something that you're just saving for a
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: rainy day. So that's going to be the first set
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: of questions to ask, because then what that does is
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: that determines how much risk you're going to take. And
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: that's kind of what's the level of fixed interest versus
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: and kind of keeping cash in the bank versus what
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: you invest in the markets. So that's probably the first
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: thing for you to think about. And then for that
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: piece that you do want to invest in the markets,
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: I'll be probably a little bit more risk than some
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: would like I would just simply go say, find yourself
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: a global index fund or a global managed fund MSCI
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: ACW I is is kind of one of the obvious ones.
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: JP Morgan. I've got a couple of really good ones
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: that we love at Colder as well, and just go
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: into that.
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: That's all you have to do.
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: That's going to give you global diversification through one stock
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: and you're done.
• 26:00
  Speaker 6: How do I like? What does it like? Online companies?
• 26:03
  Speaker 6: That's like the management people that you can do thing?
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: So you so actually that's interesting, right, vision, So you
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: can invest in the funds through cheress hatch. There are
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: a few different ways that you can do it. I
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: think the hard thing for your level of funds at
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: three hundred thousand dollars is actually is getting some help
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: and getting some advice. And so the hardest thing. That's
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: the hardest thing.
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: Of course, he doesn't have enough to get to excite
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: someone to say I'll help you exactly.
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: So if you've got kind of six seven hundred thousand dollars,
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: there's lots of people that are willing to help. At
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: three hundred thousand dollars, it's much much harder to find help,
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: and that's That's one of the issues with the industry
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: right now. It's it can be hard because for you
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: that first question the second question are where to put
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: the money? Is really really easy the first the second.
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: The first question though, of kind of how we figure
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: out what the right level of riskers and what the
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: right asset alcation is for you. That's that's the harder question,
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: I'd argue. I'd hope if we've got any financial advisors
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: listening that do actually planning that world of kind of
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: advising clients and that kind of two to five hundred
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: thousand dollars, let us know, because I think that there's
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: a massive market out there for people that need that help.
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah, hey, Charlie, what did you have a mortgage that
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: you wanted to get rid of as well? And just
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: sort of clean everything up and say, right, I'm on
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: the motor home and i'm away aging.
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: I've got some cash.
• 27:28
  Speaker 6: Basically, I've cleaned everything up, so now I'm dead free
• 27:31
  Speaker 6: and yeah, and I'm sort of looking at long term
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: because I'm still working full time. I've probably got another well,
• 27:39
  Speaker 6: I'm on fifty one, so I've definitely got another fifteen
• 27:41
  Speaker 6: years before I even think about retiring. So, and I'm
• 27:45
  Speaker 6: quite happy living in the motor home and I live
• 27:48
  Speaker 6: off my wage and the money just sitting in the
• 27:52
  Speaker 6: bank looking.
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: Pretty oh nice, We've got to get out of the bank.
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: But look actually another good another thing actually just thinking
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: slightly outside the square for you is go go have
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: a lock and get some keysaver every once. And I'm
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: assuming you've got a key save account as well. And
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: then what you do as you kind of get the
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: keysaver piece and whether it's an online tool, so go
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: over to our website if you want and use our
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: digital advice tools and that'll give you an appropriate view
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: around what is the right type of fund for you
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: and the asset allocation that works for you. And then
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: actually what you do is you just go on to
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: Shares's and replicate that exact same structure. It's pretty easy
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: to do. But yeah, that would probably be my advice.
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: If you can't find a financial advisor, set up your
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: keysaver properly, and then the person that's setting up yourqus
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: saver properly, ask them how you can do exactly the
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: same thing with your personal investments.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: Hey, Charlie, I have got one question for you. How
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: long is that three hundred k been you're sitting in
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: the bank.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: Six months okay.
• 28:55
  Speaker 6: So it's I'm also contributed to it as well, so
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: it's probably a three fifty at the moment.
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: And what interest are you getting on it?
• 29:05
  Speaker 6: Oh, I've just got it sitting in an every day accounts.
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean there is another product. While you're trying
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: to figure out where to go, there is actually another product.
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: Have a look at them called Widge, So google Widge
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: and they've got a cash based accounts which they'll pay
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: I think at the moment kind of three and a
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: quarter three and a half percent and you can get
• 29:30
  Speaker 5: it out the next day.
• 29:32
  Speaker 6: What are your thoughts on Squirrel?
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: I don't know much about Squirrel, sorry, but I think
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: even if you weren't getting advice from anyone, I mean,
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: you'd want to at least talk to your bank if
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: you're not using that money.
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: There's more interesting.
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: Actually the banks aren't the banks. They will set you
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: up with an advisor to talk through that in terms
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: of some of their managed fund So that's not about
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: outcome as well.
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, good luck, good luck with the change of lifestyle.
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: Thank you very much, appreciate it.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: But I've had.
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: Callers to the show actually interesting the mobile home community
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: interest and people who just decide that's it. I'm just
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: getting a mobile home, and I mean it feels a
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: little bit risky to me and terrifying because I quite
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: like having a home.
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: But you've just traded it, depreciated an appreciating asset for
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: a depreciating asset as well.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but I guess, I mean, yeah, it's sort of
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: on a romantic level, sort of quite appealing. It's just like,
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: you know, all you got is you in the road
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: and wherever you park up and awhere you go, and
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: some money in the bank. Somebody said, Haye, Tim, where's
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: your three out of spare three hundred k?
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: Well, I don't know.
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: I've got a mortgage, that's why. Yeah, thanks Andre. I mean,
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure if he's curious to know where my
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: spare three hundred k or he's having a crack, because
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: it does sound like, oh too, where's your spare?
• 30:51
  Speaker 5: Threats a number one week in show. Surely the money's flowing.
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: Indeed, ah, hey, we'll be back in just a moment.
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: It's twenty to six.
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: News Talks It be Where with Rupert Carla On. He
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: is the founder of managing director of Kurra Wealth. And
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: let's go to some more calls showing Peter Hello, yeah, Hello.
• 31:16
  Speaker 7: My question is what's the difference between an e t
• 31:20
  Speaker 7: F and an index fund. I'm currently in the smart ETF,
• 31:28
  Speaker 7: which is I think one hundred percent the Vanguard.
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: Yep, you'll be the US large cap ETF.
• 31:35
  Speaker 7: Yeah, the v O I think it is.
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: Yep.
• 31:39
  Speaker 7: And what's the difference between an ETF and an index fund?
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: There is no difference. So an ETF is simply so
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: ETF is an exchange traded fund, and index funds are
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: a type of exchange traded funds. So yeah, so Voo
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: is the biggest in the world. It's the S and
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: P five hundred yep.
• 31:56
  Speaker 7: I'm aware of it.
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: And yeah, they're just another way of accessing them. So
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: for a Kiwi investor, ETFs are amazing because you can
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: go into your shares is or hatch account and simply
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: buy whatever you want and pick and choose from the
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: thousands of different ETFs that are available on the New
• 32:12
  Speaker 5: York Stock Exchange.
• 32:14
  Speaker 7: And it is very different in risk.
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: Yep.
• 32:17
  Speaker 7: One is a well you answer the question.
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: Sorry, So the difference in risk between an index and
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: an ETF, no, because index fund is a type of ETF. However,
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: inside the ETF world and inside the different types of
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: index funds, there is a huge, huge, huge amount of
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: risk difference, everything from you can buy a triple leveraged
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: s and P five hundred, which is absolutely insane. Have
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: you asked me, all the way through to a cash fund,
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: So massively different types of risk depending on what you're buying.
• 32:51
  Speaker 7: And an index fund changes by whatever the indexes, whereas
• 32:58
  Speaker 7: an ETF changes by whatever the market pressure is.
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: A ETF will know, an ETF will track the will
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: track the components of the if it isn't the next fund,
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: so that they move in exactly the same manner. All
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: it is is the rapper in terms of how you
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: buy it.
• 33:15
  Speaker 7: Okay, so they're executed the same, but it's slightly different
• 33:17
  Speaker 7: packaging exactly. All right, that's.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Great, good stuff. Cheers Peter.
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: By the way, Chris, if you're still listening, if you
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: want to give us a quick call off air, we
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: do have an independent advisor who's actually offered to give
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: you some help, and it was Charlie.
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Charlie. If you want to call back, then we've
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: got a.
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: Number for an independent advisor who will give you give
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: you some free advice because I think she can't be
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: able to see you keeping it in cash.
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: So yeah, i'd second that.
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so good on you, Angela. Thanks for that.
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: Now let's have a look at a few texts actually
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: before we head to the break. I've got a few
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: other questions in the back of my mind. Question, we
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: have money in crypto. It's dropped twenty four percent this year.
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: We're still up twenty one percent on their original investment
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: in twenty twenty three. Again, it's asking for specific advice,
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: but it's saying, should we offload now in case it
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: gets worse or hold now. I don't think you're going
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: to give an answer to that, but you've got some
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: thoughts on it, port I mean you can give an answer.
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: It's on not made.
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: Look, when you invested in crypto and bitcoin, hopefully you
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: recognize and understood the cyclicality of bitcoin. We know there's
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: three or four years up where there'll be massive gains,
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: and then every three or four years is a drop
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: of seventy sixty to seventy percent up. You need to
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: take the view on your own as to what you
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: think the future prospects are for whatever crypto holdings you've got.
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: If it's bitcoin, if you're still confident in the long
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: term story, stick to it. If you're no longer confident
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: in the long term story, maybe it's time to exit.
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: But you've got to do your own research, do your
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: own work and come up with your own investment case.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: Good stuff.
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: Okay, somebody wants to know if they're with a particular
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: key we saver fund and they don't know how it
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: rates compare to other funds. Where do you find out
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: about past performance?
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: Looks sorted sort. It is actually a really good website.
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: So you got to sort of dot org, dot intet
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: and on that you can click you can get all
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: the detail about your own Can we save a fun?
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: Or alternatively, and I think you can just get a
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: list of all funds in that.
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: Category all the fun.
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: So you guys have a Peki sat with fun, don't you?
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so you come or the easier option, if I'm
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: going to be plug my own stuff, go through the
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: cold of digital advice tools on the Cordal Wealth website
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: and then world or comparison and show you how your
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: fund is comparing.
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: This person is actually with coral wealth and doesn't know
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: how it compares with the others.
• 35:46
  Speaker 5: We'll go through the digital advice tool and you'll figure
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: it out.
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: What about the cynical person.
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: Of course you're going to say nice things about yourself,
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: but it has to just deal with facts.
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: Well exactly that we always deal with facts, because I
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: would have the regulator murdering me if I was lying
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: about those facts exactly.
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: So there you go, go to that digital advice tool,
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: or you know, as Rupert says, you can go to
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: a sort of dot org dot in Z. We'll come
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: I tell you what, we'll come back.
• 36:13
  Speaker 5: Actually, sorry, if it is a cold a client, just
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: log into the app and in the app you're going
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: to see your returns. You're going to see your one year,
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: three or five year returns.
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: Can they see it compared with what they will know,
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: But they'll be able to use that and compare that
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: to whatever they can find on sorted, and I suspect
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: they'll be quite happy. Oh, he's calmly confident as a
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: rupert Carlyon.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: We'll be back, and by the way, don't have long
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: to go.
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: I've got a few texts to get to and a
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: few more questions but if you want to jump the queue,
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: then give us a give us a call. One hundred
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: eighty eleven minutes to six. His talk said, b I'm
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: Tim Beverage. My guest is Rupert Carlyon. Look, Actually there
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: was something we meant to touch on earlier, Rupert, and
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: it was about the increases to Keywi Saver and we've
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: got a cost of living crisis. I mean, it's in
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: danger of getting a political territory. But you sort of think,
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: you know, people are having there's only so much money
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: in the economy. As a headline and as a political headline,
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: it sounds great, Ah, we're going to be investing more
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: in our retirement, but you know, we're coming off the
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: back of recession.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: Or how much do we have the money to spend
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: on this stuff? Do you think?
• 37:22
  Speaker 5: I think it's going to be pretty tough, to be honest,
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: You've got so currently we're at three and a half
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: percent of employer and three and a half percent of employee,
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: so seven percent going up to twelve. So that's five
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: percent effectively of people's wages which will be pulled out
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: of the economy over the next five years. And that
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: is a big number internationally. When this kind of stuff
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: has been done, it's been done with tax breaks and
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: done with kind of some other incentives, so that people
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: kind of it kind of comes from both sides. Personally,
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: I think it's going to be tough. And the big
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: question that everyone's still asking is, well, okay, we're still
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: not having an open, honest conversation about indeed super. But
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: if you means tested indeed super as a way to
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: pay for some tax breaks, then that's going to be
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: a way to kind of keep the economy going on
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: the way through.
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: Oh hot, take god, you sound like you're must about
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: to hit the hustings.
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: I guess.
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, you know you're in the game with key
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: we save and stuff, and you see what. You have
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: a big picture on what's going on. But it does
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: feel that we are avoiding the conversation no one wants
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: to have about, even whether it's means testing or extending
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: the age or whatever.
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: And what do you mean politicians avoiding a hard question?
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: Well, yes, indeed, I mean because the fact is it,
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: it is going to take extra money out of the economy, isn't.
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: It one hundred percent?
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: And it doesn't come from nowhere.
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: I think people just think Oh, I'm going to have
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: more money going to my kiwisaver. Well, yeah, but where's
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: it coming from?
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: Exactly? And I think we're dreaming if we think that
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: the extra money and kisaber is going to be spent
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: on shore. It's there might be a little bit more
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: money that gets invested in New Zealand. But fundamentally, our
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: job as Keev Saber managers is to maximize the value
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: of the investments for our clients, and unfortunately, at the
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: moment that means investing offshore, and from a risk perspective,
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: we are better off putting that money offshore as well
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: because our clients are heavily exposed to New Zealand and
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: so therefore we're better off giving them a different exposures
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: to what they already have.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: That seems to make sense actually logically when you think
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: of it just as a general theme.
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: Oh, exactly, if you get your wages, you've got your house,
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: you've got other investments here in New Zealand. You don't
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: want a big chunky Q we say we're here in
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: New Zealand either.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: Hm. I never heard it put that way actually, but
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: it does sort of make intuitive sense, doesn't it. Hey
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: just have got a quick text here. We've got a
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: minute and forty, so I'll try and be quick talking
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: about the conversations and hypers around the stock market. And
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: this person says, well, I remember you know the saw before,
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: but it talks about in seventy three, seventy four to
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: fifty percent of the down Joe Dale Jones wiped off
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: than October.
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: Eighty seven Black Friday.
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: Where where does the market end up at when you're
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: taken into account crashes, because Warren's obviously two or three
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: times bitten more shy A.
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: Lot crashes happen historically. I mean, we're in probably one
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: of the longer ball markets we've ever seen, but crashes,
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: big crashes happen every four to seven years on history.
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: On average, they'll take a year to fall, and then
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: it recovers two or three years later, and then we
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: have another two or three really good years.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: And how many years are we into the latest sort
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: of good I.
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: Would argue two thousand and eight. Oh so we haven't
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: seen a long term sustained down ten since two thousand
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: and eight, two thousand and nine.
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: So tomorrow that we can play this back.
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: Sorry, ah, like it's all fun, Hey, Rupert great to
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: see him, mate, and if you want to go check
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: out Coral Wealth you can do it. And then as
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: you say, they've got some interesting tools that you can
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: use to have a look at your study of your key,
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: we say, and all that sort of thing.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: Thanks my producer Lock.
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: Great job mate, and do go and listen to Actually,
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: I would highlight any of the hours actually, but did
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: have quite a fun interview with Ron Mark. You might
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: be able to catch on demand after six o'clock. Quite fun,
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: it was, I think on the whole. Yes, and thank
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: you for listening. Sunday at six is next. I'll be
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: back with my usual overnights, but we'll look forward to
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: your company again next.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Weekend as well. Have a great evening. Catch us soon.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: For more from News Talks at b Listen live on
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio.