Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Extreme Fear: Stock Market Update as Israel Attacks Iran + Stock Market News 13 June 2025

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Felix Prehn - Extreme Fear: Stock Market Update as Israel Attacks Iran + Stock Market News 13 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Winston and, of course, felix here all the way around, and it is a day that we need to talk about because, well, the markets are tanking because Israel has hit Iran.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you know that by now.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: This isn't exactly news, but what might be news to you is what do we do about it?
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: How do we actually make money out of this and how do we protect our money and how do we avoid doing stupid stuff that we do when we get panicked?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: We've all been there.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I've been there, you've been there, winston's been there.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: You know Winston chasing, for example, porcupines not his smartest moments, but we can learn from them.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you here and if you would find it useful to understand what the heck's going on out here.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: We can learn from previous wars and everything else and, first of all, I'm not a war expert.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I know everyone on social media today is.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I am not.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I'm only going to cover to the extent that it impacts my and your portfolio.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: We know that Israel has hit a load of stuff in Iran, rather military bases, uranium enrichment facilities, which have apparently taken out much of the scientific leadership six scientists there as well as a bunch of generals.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, so that's kind of sort of everything we need to know on that front.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: What makes this into a bigger deal potentially is is this war going to get bigger with the US involvement?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Now Trump was sort of saying yesterday I don't know anything about it, you know that kind of thing.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Oh no, no, I don't want him to attack Iran and all that.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Of course he knew and that was just posturing, probably so that those guys wouldn't go into a rabbit hole.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Go into a rabbit hole.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: But he says I gave Iran 60 days ultimatum to make a deal.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Today is day 61.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: But they just couldn't get that.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: That was his first tweet.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: And then the second one is here, this one here, and this is actually important because it gives you an idea of how big a deal this could get or not.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And he says I gave Iran a chance, but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn't get it done.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: The US makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world, which is what Israel, of course, is using.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Israel has a lot of it.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Much more to come, much more to come, and they know how to use it.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Certain Iranian highliners spoke bravely, but they didn't know what was about to happen.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: They're all dead now.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: It's a lovely sentiment in how you negotiate, isn't it?
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: But yeah.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: So basically, he says Iran must make a deal before there's nothing left, save for Bosnia and Herzegovina empire.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Just do it Now.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Knowing the Iranians not particularly well, I imagine they're not going to go.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're right.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I think the reasonable thing to do is to come to a negotiating table, because you've just killed a bunch of people.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's quite how it works.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: However, the response so far has been 100 drones fired in the direction of Israel.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Apparently, none of them made it, and that's the sort of soft reaction they did when we had the whole Hezbollah thing panning out last summer.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So we want to draw some parallels from those things and we also we want to look at how do we make money from this, because pre-market doesn't look too great, unless you're in energy stocks, of course.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: We're in some energy stocks.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Because energy is one of the sectors that's been looking very good.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So we're in things like EXE, for example, which is popping this morning, but we're also in a lot of defensive stocks and popping this morning, but we're also in a lot of defensive stocks and I'll walk you through some of these in a moment which are all gapping up, and this isn't me in hindsight going.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Of course someone's going to accuse me of that, you know, or you got lucky.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: No, it was a very, very, very clear indication that one should be in defensive stocks.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: The last two weeks, gold stocks also popping and of course, oil prices are popping.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So we need to look at all of those things to figure out how to make money, where to make money.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: But first of all, let me give you a little bit of historical perspective, because I think this often helps Anybody feeling a little bit worried about their portfolio.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: If you're feeling worried about your portfolio, put a one in the chat.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Let's get a little bit of a reading of the room here.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So if you're worried about your portfolio, have a look at some of the bigger wars.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: And I'm not even looking at the little wars here, I'm looking at the bigger ones.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: So Vietnam War right, market recovered.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Gulf War this is 1991.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Bush number one you had that little dip there and it recovered.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Afghanistan war it recovered.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, recession followed in the us and so on, but that wasn't really the um, the fault of the of the war iraq war, um number um.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know how many there were, but there were a lot.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: This is the last.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Last, iraq war 2003.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Got that dip, you know, made money out of that.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Crimean crisis 2014.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: That's when the Ukraine war really started.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Right, markets recovered since that.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So, generally speaking, what I would think about is and this is for you kind of long-term investors, you guys who own an index fund, you own SPY, vue, all that kind of stuff.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: The questions I would ask myself is our children learning?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Is the US economy still there, yes or no?
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Yes or no?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat, yes or no?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I think we all agree it's still there.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So are the earnings of companies like, say, microsoft or Apple or Nvidia, the big guys out there in the index?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Are they affected?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Is there less demand for AI, less demand for cloud computing or any of that stuff?
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: No right, it doesn't get affected.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So, therefore, why on earth would you sell an index fund today?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: That would be my thought.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Right, your conclusion always could be another one, but I don't understand it, because it's going to get back.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Go back up Now.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: There could be certain stocks that hit your stops if you're a bit more of an active investor, a bit more of an individual stock.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So you're even trading and I wouldn't touch the stops.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I'd still have your stops where your stops are, because the rules don't change just because someone started a war.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Same rules apply.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: But I would look for things that are pulled back, that make no sense, and maybe for those pullbacks we can buy some more, because we also do that, right, big banks.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: The whole thing is still there.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Nothing has really changed.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: But I want to give you one better for you, and that is we're running tomorrow a live breakout seminar.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: We're literally going to teach you me and Winston You'll be there, winston.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Winston will be there For about an hour and a half, two hours.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: I'm going to teach you how to find breakout stocks, and this today is going to create a big beautiful opportunity and we might recover some of the drops by the end of the day.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: It's possible.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: It'll still be a big beautiful opportunity to find some breakouts, because when you get these erratic moves, you actually get some really easy low-hanging fruit.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: But you've got to know how to find them, you've got to know where the rules are and you got to know the most important thing as well.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: First of all, when do you buy them?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: But, most importantly, when to sell.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: And that's what everybody's thinking about today, right, when do I sell?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: We like to sell for profits, but we also sell for small losses, because that's how we actually make some real money.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So I'll teach you those rules that Waltz has been using for like 50 years, a hundred years.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow, if you come and join me, phoenixfrancerboxcom there's a link down below as well.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Winston looks like he had a bath.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Winston did not have a bath.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Winston just took me out into the rain and is probably one of the filthiest beings out here, but he enjoys nothing like rain.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: He, literally the guy will wake me up sometimes at three in the morning and come into a bedroom and he'll just shake his head and make some like funny little sounds.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: He's very polite.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: He would never bark and he's just like and I look at him like what's the matter?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: And he's like it's raining, let's go outside.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: It's exciting because we get these big tropical downpours here and he loves those.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: So we were just in one of those.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: So he's very content.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Him and the pigs, basically they're very, very content.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So Him and the pigs, basically they're very, very content.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So if you gapped past the stop pre-market.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you still get stopped out.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: It's just how risk management works, my friend.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Once you start creating the but this time is different scenario, your risk management is down the toilet because you will, every single time you get a red number, go.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: But this time is different.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Now I wanted to show you this smart chart, but it's a bit fuzzy, isn't it?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: What that's telling you is that oil ctas.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: What the heck are ctas?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So ctas are algo funds, computers, basically, and they invest in oil.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: One of the things that they do and they are a hundred percent short oil are the poor buggers, right?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So, um, oil prices are going absolutely bonkers.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: This morning, us oil is up a fair bit, but again, I wanted to show you 1990 gulf war, 2003, iraq invasion right, that was a bit of a longer rally up in oil, but typically your sort of average small kind of a war doesn't really have much of an impact.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, those guys are going to get clobbered today because US oil is up 20% on the week.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: So the month, that's the month.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look on the day.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Well, there are also these are futures that they trade earlier.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Right, they're up 6% so far.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Squeezing, short, squeezing.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: That's what's going on there.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: They guys have to sell and Oliver Archer dropped yeah, I also saw that.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I also have no idea why Archer dropped, to be honest with you.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Um, I don't question it, I don't care.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: It happens all the time.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I get stopped out of probably five positions a week, maybe more, and I never check why.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I just don't care, because the system means having only small losses.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: And that's the beauty of the system.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: It means we don't have to worry about it.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: We have to think about it because our gains easily, easily, easily pay for all the small losses that we collect.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Now, some of the bigger winners that we've and these are just stocks that I've been recommending to you guys in the coaching community for the last two, three weeks, four weeks maybe even how long have we been buying defensives for?
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Probably since mid-May or so, right?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Noc Northrop Grumman is up bigly this morning here.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: You can see that gap up here, right, that's actually not particularly extended from where we have been, so I don't think that's like super late to the party.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: L3 Harris is finally getting some coming out of that sideways action there, which is nice to see.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: That's LHX is the ticker symbol there.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: That's looking pretty sweet here this morning.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Rtx, another one that is also off the chart, gapping up here very nicely from yesterday, 141 to 143.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And that takes us above the previous highs.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: So party time.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Also, gold stocks, and we have a bunch of gold stocks, but Groy is just one of them.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I've mentioned a few times here on the channel, so you guys might be familiar with that one and that's also gapping up this morning, why it's just one of those safe havens People flee into gold and everything, even bad, happens.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Another thing people flee into is safe stocks, and I think that might be one of the reasons that apple is actually up this morning.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know why this is a safe stock.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: It must just be sort of, uh, people thinking that it is.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think it is particularly, but that's actually moving up a little bit today.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: The only I think max 7, that's actually green today but.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: But there are loads of defense stocks, I mean sort of in the electronics space and stuff.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: There are literally dozens of these.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Here is one that we've been bullish on for a while MRCY had a nice pullback there.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Now it's recovering.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So again, this is one that we probably are not too late on, and oil stocks as well, and they are the usual suspects.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Your Exxon and that kind of stuff.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Those are clearly doing well.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Here this morning, exxon, up 3% CVX, and so again, they're huge, huge, huge stocks.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So we tend to prefer some of the smaller friends from time to time because they potentially make us more money.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: And this one really did.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: It popped yesterday.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: It's popping here this morning.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: And Oracle one really did.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: It popped yesterday.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: It's popping here this morning.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Um, and oracle, yes, one of those warmongers.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: No, nothing with to do with that oracle, just brilliant, brilliant numbers.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: So really, popping out here above absolutely every bit of resistance there ever was, absolutely fantastic.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: As they say in france, the one tech stock that is bleeding is adobe.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: And um, yeah, gapping down here today.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Not a pretty picture, still a falling knife.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Remember when that thing was trading at 630 dollars?
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Right, wouldn't it have been nice to sell it at 560?
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: We're now at 394.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: From the exit point, from an investor point of view, we're now 30% down.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: And I think Adobe is becoming less relevant.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of competition out there.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: He's doing what they're doing, but easier.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So I got to stop buying airlines.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I try never to buy airlines, to be honest with you.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: It's one of those things.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so Archer Shared Selling.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Oh, they raised some money, did they?
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Okay, two days ago you got it completely wrong.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: So, stephen, stephen, I get things completely wrong all the time.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: The question is do I still make money?
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: And the answer to that is a definite yes.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: So it isn't about being right.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: If you want to be right I don don't know philosophy or something might be better suited but ultimately, all we need to do is not be horribly wrong and we still make money, because all we got to do is just follow the same bloody patterns that the market's been throwing at us for absolute ages.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So look at, look at this thing here right, so you had, you started off with a adobe, did nothing right, and then adobe gave the all clear and it did a tremendous rally right.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: And then what did Adobe do next?
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: It sort of did nothing here at the top right.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: And then what did Adobe do next?
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Adobe became naughty and Adobe started to fall, and it's never really really properly recovered from that.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Well, it did a little.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: It did a little really really properly recovered from that.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Well, it did a little bit.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: It did a little buy spurt here, and then again it exhausted itself and then it went down again.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: If you just follow that and some of you might think, oh, in hindsight it's easy to do, we don't do it in hindsight, we do it live every single week.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: I share every stock that I'm bullish on and absolutely everything that I buy every single week, before I buy it, with all of my students.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: So thousands of you actually get to see it and from what you guys are telling me, you're liking it right.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: You're making money, I'm making money, everyone's making money, because we just have rules.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Why is Boeing going down?
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Um, well, they did lose a plane yesterday in India and there are rumors and concerns out there that it might be a plane defect.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: Of course, that could still be maintenance, it could be a wrong setting, it could be all sorts of stuff, but that's not brilliant.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of what's happening there.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I think my stop's at around 198, so I'm still in it.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Who knows, we'll see, and I'm not going to change it just because there's a war or because a plane fell out of the sky, because those are just things we have to live with, unfortunately.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: What would I buy today?
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: I would just go through the defense tickers.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I would go through the gold tickers.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: I would go through the gold tickers.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: I would go through, um, those, yeah, um.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I would also look through the quality stocks that you like I mean just all the stuff that you like and just look for stuff that looks as happy and relaxed as this guy, just stuff that's pulling back for no particular reason, right, just you know, the economy is still there.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: You, nothing's really bad's going to happen here.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, so far that was actually a breakout there, wasn't it?
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Pulling back here this morning, gapping down, it's not the strongest breakout, so maybe that isn't a great example, but it just doesn't make a lot of sense for good stocks to be dropping on this, right?
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of what I would do, and maybe for you, that's Microsoft, which is down somewhat this morning, and you can pick up some bargains.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: That's what I would do.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: So I would do the opposite of what everyone else is doing, which is selling in a day like this.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: The plane was 11 years old.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: What's the state of affairs at AMD?
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Somebody's asking.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Well, it's also dropping a little bit here.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Not the most convincing of breakouts so far, is it?
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: But who knows, who knows?
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Do you just sell volatile stocks today and buy them next week.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I never sell anything actively.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I never go into my portfolio and click the sell button.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: It just doesn't happen because there's always a stop, so the stop takes care of my selling and therefore I'm doing nothing today, absolutely bugger all because we're all set up for everything, like everything was set up on Sunday, last Sunday or Monday morning, perhaps before this war started, and nothing has actually changed.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: So follow strategy, follow your rules.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Follow because we were already bullish on defense stocks and aerospace.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: We were already bullish on, you know, semiconductors, and those were really the only two sectors that we're heavily going into.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: So I'm happy.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: That's really it.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: War is miserable, but we're making money, which is better than not making money, right?