Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold Soars While Stocks Collapse - Chris Vermeulen #6259
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: It looks like the markets are primed and ready to
- 0:02Speaker 1: bounce for maybe three or four weeks. And that big
- 0:05Speaker 1: question is is it a bounce before it rolls over
- 0:08Speaker 1: and we go into something like twenty twenty two another
- 0:11Speaker 1: small bear market or larger than that, or is the
- 0:14Speaker 1: market going to bounce, stabilize and actually want to build
- 0:17Speaker 1: a launchpad to go even higher. So we really got
- 0:20Speaker 1: to you one bar at a time. It depends what
- 0:22Speaker 1: various assets are doing for right now. As you mentioned,
- 0:26Speaker 1: oil is down, it's looking pretty weak. That's not a
- 0:28Speaker 1: good economic indicator. Gold is skyrocketing, hitting all time highs,
- 0:33Speaker 1: telling us the world is nervous and fearful.
- 0:35Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where
- 0:39Speaker 2: you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else
- 0:43Speaker 2: to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
- 0:47Speaker 2: Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork
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- 0:56Speaker 2: Survival Network now more than.
- 0:59Speaker 3: Ever, And welcome you are listening to and watching the
- 1:05Speaker 3: Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, you're
- 1:09Speaker 3: already at March nineteenth. March is ticking away. Market has
- 1:14Speaker 3: been very dicey lately. Gold amazing, oil down, dollar down,
- 1:23Speaker 3: interest rates, maybe they're going down too. But we want
- 1:26Speaker 3: to talk with the technical traders dot com. Chris Hermulein. Chris,
- 1:31Speaker 3: great to connect with you again. So Trump is in office,
- 1:35Speaker 3: the stock market is having some indigestion, isn't it.
- 1:40Speaker 1: No doubt? Yeah, and thanks for having me back on
- 1:41Speaker 1: the show. Carry Yeah, the markets are wild for sure.
- 1:44Speaker 1: We've got Trump throwing landmines out every day. You don't
- 1:47Speaker 1: know what he's going to say or do. He's making
- 1:49Speaker 1: it difficult for I think short term traders. But overall,
- 1:53Speaker 1: I mean the overall trend of the markets I believe
- 1:57Speaker 1: are still really giant hides in the market, and news
- 2:01Speaker 1: is usually short term blips and dips on the market.
- 2:04Speaker 1: And you're right, it has been very volatile. We've seen
- 2:07Speaker 1: a lot of selling in the equities markets. We're seeing
- 2:10Speaker 1: quite a bit of damage being done on a technical standpoint,
- 2:12Speaker 1: a lot of momentum to the downside, a lot of
- 2:14Speaker 1: heavy selling volume, a lot of fear and stocks though
- 2:18Speaker 1: they are beat up and they're a little over sold,
- 2:22Speaker 1: and just based on the charts and some cycle analysis,
- 2:25Speaker 1: it looks like the markets are primed and ready to
- 2:27Speaker 1: bounce for maybe three or four weeks, And that big
- 2:31Speaker 1: question is is it a bounce before it rolls over
- 2:33Speaker 1: and we go into something like twenty twenty two another
- 2:36Speaker 1: small bear market or larger than that, or is the
- 2:39Speaker 1: market going to bounce, stabilize and actually want to build
- 2:42Speaker 1: a launch pad to go even higher. So we really
- 2:45Speaker 1: got to you at one bar at a time. It
- 2:47Speaker 1: depends what various assets are doing for right now, as
- 2:50Speaker 1: you mentioned, oil is down, it's looking pretty weak. That's
- 2:53Speaker 1: not a good economic indicator. Gold is skyrocketing, hitting all
- 2:57Speaker 1: time highs, telling us the world is nervous and fearful
- 3:01Speaker 1: and they want to get out of the financial system
- 3:03Speaker 1: because they don't trust banks, they don't trust the government,
- 3:05Speaker 1: and they want physical holder money in a physical asset.
- 3:10Speaker 1: So there's a lot of chaos, kind of the in
- 3:12Speaker 1: the cards. When you read the taret cards of the charts,
- 3:15Speaker 1: there's a nervousness.
- 3:17Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know, my portfolio not doing so great,
- 3:21Speaker 3: but it's been more than an offset by the appreciation
- 3:25Speaker 3: in gold, you know, thirty thirty gold, you know, what
- 3:31Speaker 3: can you say about it? And now even silver is
- 3:33Speaker 3: starting to react it's approaching thirty four bucks. Tell us
- 3:39Speaker 3: your forecast moving ahead, we can have a pullback on gold,
- 3:43Speaker 3: or because it's really gone a little bit, it's gone
- 3:48Speaker 3: too much too soon, you know.
- 3:50Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's in a pretty major super cycle
- 3:53Speaker 1: in a bullish phase. We had a target at three
- 3:57Speaker 1: fifty was our next measured move target, saying that's where
- 4:01Speaker 1: gold should run to for that first level, and based
- 4:05Speaker 1: on that, we're pretty much at that level. Thirty fifty
- 4:08Speaker 1: to thirty sixty. Is that is that area? I think
- 4:10Speaker 1: gold still though, has a lot of upward momentum. If
- 4:14Speaker 1: gold really was to take off and break through this level,
- 4:17Speaker 1: then it's going to about thirty two hundred. So we
- 4:20Speaker 1: need to see how it's going to move at this
- 4:22Speaker 1: kind of three thy fifty area. I have feeling we're
- 4:25Speaker 1: going to see a little bit of a pause, which
- 4:27Speaker 1: is actually a good thing. If it pauses here based
- 4:30Speaker 1: on Fibinaci theory and technical analysis, that means the momentum
- 4:35Speaker 1: triggers and the momentum levels are accurate. And if it
- 4:38Speaker 1: pauses at this level, that means it wants to go
- 4:40Speaker 1: up and hit that one hundred percent measured move which
- 4:42Speaker 1: is around thirty two hundred dollars per ounce for gold,
- 4:46Speaker 1: so you definitely don't want to picking the top in gold.
- 4:48Speaker 3: Gold.
- 4:49Speaker 1: The precious metal space has been the sweet spot for
- 4:51Speaker 1: the last couple of years. It continues to be the
- 4:54Speaker 1: sweet space, and it's picking up momentum, telling us I
- 4:57Speaker 1: think we're actually getting closer and closer to it, you
- 5:00Speaker 1: knowomic kind of crisis and a bear market inequities and
- 5:04Speaker 1: gold will get pulled down to some extent when that happens,
- 5:07Speaker 1: but until then, gold really is the low's volatility, the
- 5:11Speaker 1: highest probability of making more money going forward if you
- 5:15Speaker 1: don't want to be stepping into the ring with a
- 5:18Speaker 1: star mass of pops and drops and presidential kind of
- 5:22Speaker 1: news shaking limbs up.
- 5:24Speaker 3: All right, So do you have an opinion on silver?
- 5:28Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean silver is similar ish. I mean it's
- 5:31Speaker 1: breaking out, it's it's moving higher, it's trying to break
- 5:33Speaker 1: this thirty five range. I do think we could see
- 5:36Speaker 1: silver potentially squeeze and run up a little bit higher
- 5:39Speaker 1: all the way to about forty six, forty six or
- 5:43Speaker 1: forty seven dollars. So percentage wise, there's still a half
- 5:46Speaker 1: decent move in silver, but the overall chart pattern for it.
- 5:51Speaker 1: It has a pattern that's unfolding that I call three
- 5:53Speaker 1: surges to a high, and it usually ends very abruptly
- 5:57Speaker 1: with a strong reversal. And right now the trend is up,
- 6:00Speaker 1: and so I do think when the economy potentially turns
- 6:03Speaker 1: the corner and the momentum in the precious metal space
- 6:06Speaker 1: stalls out, I think silver is going to have a
- 6:08Speaker 1: pretty big haircut. But money's flowing into the space because
- 6:11Speaker 1: it's nervous. I do prefer gold myself because it's at
- 6:15Speaker 1: all time eyes, there's no overhead resistance, and it's more
- 6:20Speaker 1: stable silver Silver can fall very quickly, so it's not
- 6:24Speaker 1: something you want to I wouldn't want to dump a
- 6:26Speaker 1: ton of money in because you can wipe out five
- 6:28Speaker 1: fifteen percent of value in a couple of trading sessions,
- 6:31Speaker 1: whereas gold. A big down day on gold is like
- 6:34Speaker 1: one two percent. You need a few of those back
- 6:37Speaker 1: to back to do some real damage to a portfolio.
- 6:39Speaker 1: So that's why gold tends to do very well. It's
- 6:42Speaker 1: kind of the global barometer of fear. It's the most
- 6:47Speaker 1: stable way to store your money outside of like you
- 6:52Speaker 1: know stocks and real estate, and you know silver and
- 6:56Speaker 1: miners they're all very volatile. You can put large store
- 7:00Speaker 1: of money into gold and not have to sweat worrying
- 7:03Speaker 1: about it, you know, losing twenty percent in a week.
- 7:05Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true. But the volatility. With volatility comes much
- 7:10Speaker 3: more potential for upsized gains, right for sure.
- 7:14Speaker 1: And that really comes down to the type of trader
- 7:18Speaker 1: or investor and where they are in their life cycle, right,
- 7:21Speaker 1: Like my focus is on and who I mostly I
- 7:24Speaker 1: help most with are people generally fifty plus who have
- 7:27Speaker 1: a lot of wealth and they don't want to give
- 7:29Speaker 1: it back. They're not swinging for the fences. They're not
- 7:31Speaker 1: looking for big volatility effect. They're looking for capital preservation.
- 7:35Speaker 1: How can they keep making money no matter what happens
- 7:38Speaker 1: in the market, versus trying to make a whole bunch
- 7:41Speaker 1: and take a lot of risks. So obviously there's two
- 7:44Speaker 1: sides of the camp. I'm the side of people who
- 7:46Speaker 1: love gold, who love currency, who love moving in on
- 7:50Speaker 1: waves in full asset classes like the stock indexes or
- 7:53Speaker 1: bonds when they're moving, not people who want to go
- 7:56Speaker 1: into crypto and trade you know, individual stocks and and
- 8:00Speaker 1: try to play whatever is in the news. So I
- 8:02Speaker 1: definitely cater to the low volatility, but consistent returns for
- 8:06Speaker 1: large amounts of money versus volatile a bunch of small trades,
- 8:11Speaker 1: swinging for the fences for some you know, a bunch
- 8:13Speaker 1: of grand slams and stuff. That's that's just not the
- 8:16Speaker 1: style or focus that I do.
- 8:19Speaker 3: All right, So yeah, uh understand what you're saying there.
- 8:24Speaker 3: So how does this affect gold and the dollar.
- 8:29Speaker 1: Yeah, we've definitely seen a dollar we get pretty beat
- 8:32Speaker 1: up with Trump and the tariff talks. You know, could
- 8:35Speaker 1: slow the economy, it could create inflation. There's all kinds
- 8:38Speaker 1: of different people saying different things. The dollar has definitely
- 8:41Speaker 1: been beaten up. I think. I think most of the
- 8:43Speaker 1: tariff news has now been kind of worked into the dollar.
- 8:47Speaker 1: It's it's fallen down to about this one oh three
- 8:50Speaker 1: one oh four range, which is when you look back
- 8:53Speaker 1: on a long term try and go back several years,
- 8:55Speaker 1: it's the middle high volume area where it should find support.
- 8:59Speaker 1: It's in the middle of a range from really twenty
- 9:01Speaker 1: twenty three all the way to twenty twenty five, and
- 9:05Speaker 1: so the dollar has fallen. It's I think it's worked
- 9:09Speaker 1: its way through the tariff news and now it's trying
- 9:12Speaker 1: to find stability, and I think if the economy still weakens,
- 9:16Speaker 1: I think we're seeing the dollar perform very well in
- 9:19Speaker 1: a long term trend. When you zoom back many, many years.
- 9:23Speaker 1: It is a noisy chart, the dollar index, but it
- 9:26Speaker 1: is moving up into the right, a series of higher lows,
- 9:29Speaker 1: series of higher highs, and I think we could see
- 9:31Speaker 1: a pretty big move. It's at one to three right now.
- 9:33Speaker 1: I think it could go to one sixteen, potentially one twenty.
- 9:37Speaker 1: So there's it's not huge percentage wise, but it's a
- 9:41Speaker 1: nice slow moving asset class and it usually does well
- 9:44Speaker 1: during chaos and financial uncertainty.
- 9:47Speaker 3: All right, Hey, so you know interest rates they've been
- 9:53Speaker 3: heading down. The administration seems to be thrilled about it.
- 9:57Speaker 3: But the fact is that could be in dick of
- 10:00Speaker 3: a recession, couldn't it. Yeah? I think so.
- 10:03Speaker 1: I mean the short term, you know daily chart of
- 10:06Speaker 1: you know, the ten year note, it looks looks a
- 10:09Speaker 1: little bearish. It looks like it's it's in a downtrend
- 10:13Speaker 1: right now. It's got a little bear flag. It looks
- 10:15Speaker 1: like it could could want to fall a little bit
- 10:18Speaker 1: actually and have another leg down, which means bonds could
- 10:21Speaker 1: go up for a little bit, But in the grand
- 10:24Speaker 1: scheme of things, I still think we're going to see
- 10:27Speaker 1: yields continue to hold up and bonds are going to struggle.
- 10:30Speaker 1: I think when you look at the big picture of
- 10:32Speaker 1: the ten year note, it's kind of got a long term,
- 10:36Speaker 1: kind of big topping phase. When you look at the
- 10:39Speaker 1: long term chart of TLT, which is the long term
- 10:41Speaker 1: treasury bond, it has a long term bottom. It looks
- 10:44Speaker 1: like it's trying to form a bottom, but doesn't mean
- 10:47Speaker 1: they've fully bottomed and they're about to. You know, the
- 10:49Speaker 1: dollar is not gonna or sorry, bonds are not going
- 10:51Speaker 1: to just take off and rally, and I don't think
- 10:53Speaker 1: interest rates are just going to fall out of bed
- 10:55Speaker 1: and drop. So I do think they are kind of
- 10:58Speaker 1: a painful play. A lot of people been moving into
- 11:00Speaker 1: bonds for the last couple of years saying, hey, bonds
- 11:03Speaker 1: have bottomed, and wild bonds may have bottomed, I'm not
- 11:06Speaker 1: really expecting them to rally and generate huge returns anytime soon,
- 11:10Speaker 1: so it's kind of dead money. I like to get
- 11:13Speaker 1: into something when it is bottomed and it has started
- 11:16Speaker 1: an up trend, meaning it's going to consistently be going
- 11:18Speaker 1: higher and right now bonds are still in a bottoming, choppy,
- 11:22Speaker 1: noisy environment that wastes a lot of time. And as
- 11:25Speaker 1: you know, the only thing more valuable than money more
- 11:28Speaker 1: or less is time. And that's the one thing that
- 11:31Speaker 1: I avoid is I don't hold assets going sideways because
- 11:33Speaker 1: it's a waste of time. I move our money to
- 11:35Speaker 1: an asset class that is generating returns and doesn't have
- 11:39Speaker 1: any downside risk or very little downside risk. And so
- 11:42Speaker 1: the bond market, I'm you know, we're on the sidelines.
- 11:45Speaker 1: We're not touching the bond marker right now until I
- 11:48Speaker 1: think we see them starting a new rally to the upside,
- 11:51Speaker 1: and then I think there's going to be a great
- 11:53Speaker 1: opportunity to hold bonds. I think they could become one
- 11:55Speaker 1: of the best performers potentially the second half of this
- 11:59Speaker 1: year to do twenty twenty six. So I'm not ruling
- 12:02Speaker 1: them out. I'm just saying they're kind of a waste
- 12:05Speaker 1: of time right now, and they're a waste of risk.
- 12:08Speaker 1: You don't need to risk your money for something going sideways.
- 12:11Speaker 1: Wait until it's in an up trend and there could
- 12:13Speaker 1: be some pretty decent returns there.
- 12:15Speaker 3: Okay, So its going to be interesting to see what
- 12:18Speaker 3: happens here. What's your personal opinion here.
- 12:23Speaker 1: Well, I think my outlook, I think this is going
- 12:27Speaker 1: to this year. We're going to see the equities market
- 12:29Speaker 1: top out. I think we're gonna see the economy have
- 12:33Speaker 1: a big reset. I think oil is going to break
- 12:35Speaker 1: down in a very big way. And I think shorting
- 12:38Speaker 1: or playing an inverse ETF on the energy sector is
- 12:41Speaker 1: actually going to be a very interesting play. There's huge divergence.
- 12:45Speaker 1: Oil has been going down for the past couple of years,
- 12:48Speaker 1: Energy stock prices have been going up for the past
- 12:50Speaker 1: couple of years, and there's this very big to me
- 12:54Speaker 1: bearish divergence. And I think oil is on the cusp
- 12:56Speaker 1: of breaking down and falling to potentially fifty five fifty
- 13:00Speaker 1: dollars a barrel, and energy stocks are going to get hit.
- 13:03Speaker 1: Couple that with a bear market, which naturally pulls stocks down.
- 13:08Speaker 1: I think we could see like a forty to sixty
- 13:09Speaker 1: percent correction in energy stocks and the energy sector. Like ery,
- 13:15Speaker 1: is kind of like an inverse two X in inverse play.
- 13:17Speaker 1: So I think there's gonna be some amazing opportunity to
- 13:20Speaker 1: the downside. The markets have not topped yet, they're not
- 13:24Speaker 1: in a down trend, so we're not picking the top,
- 13:26Speaker 1: but we're we're mentally prepared. We have some trades in
- 13:30Speaker 1: the wings that we're watching and tracking so we can
- 13:32Speaker 1: take advantage of falling markets through inverse ETFs or moved
- 13:36Speaker 1: to the dollar potentially bonds. So I think this year
- 13:40Speaker 1: is going to be the year that changes a lot
- 13:42Speaker 1: of people's lives in terms of financial things turned down
- 13:45Speaker 1: in real estate bottoms I think going to fall out
- 13:48Speaker 1: there later this year, and people just need to be aware.
- 13:51Speaker 1: It's about capital preservation more so and being able to
- 13:55Speaker 1: just etch out some returns versus trying to make money
- 13:59Speaker 1: and potentially losing thirty to fifty percent of your account.
- 14:02Speaker 1: So this is gonna be a huge year, life changing
- 14:04Speaker 1: for anyone in retirement who doesn't take action and doesn't
- 14:07Speaker 1: protect themselves. The buying old strategy is pretty much a
- 14:11Speaker 1: taking time bomb for anybody forty five plus at this point,
- 14:14Speaker 1: because you could waste five to ten years with this
- 14:17Speaker 1: next downturn before we potentially even hit new hives. And
- 14:20Speaker 1: that's kind of the whole reason why I've been teaching
- 14:23Speaker 1: and showing this strategy I called asset revesting, which is
- 14:26Speaker 1: a book I published last year is really my whole
- 14:29Speaker 1: vision and mission is like how many people can I
- 14:31Speaker 1: save in retirement from the next crisis that that's coming
- 14:35Speaker 1: and being prepared is the first step.
- 14:39Speaker 3: So when is it coming here?
- 14:40Speaker 2: Though?
- 14:40Speaker 3: I mean we've been waiting for it for a dozen
- 14:43Speaker 3: years already.
- 14:45Speaker 1: Well, I mean, that's that's the thing with technical analysis
- 14:48Speaker 1: is I mean, it's not about me saying, hey, it's
- 14:50Speaker 1: going to happen, you know, on a specific date or year.
- 14:54Speaker 1: We follow price, and if the prices keeps going up,
- 14:57Speaker 1: even though I've beenmbarrassed for a couple of years, ever years,
- 15:00Speaker 1: but we're still long the markets where we're still riding
- 15:03Speaker 1: the trends up. You have to differentiate between what you
- 15:07Speaker 1: think feel and what the markets are actually doing. So
- 15:10Speaker 1: while I prepare, everybody prepare there could be chaos, and no,
- 15:14Speaker 1: you need a plan. We're not going to like do
- 15:16Speaker 1: this and until the actual trend changes, and we're going
- 15:19Speaker 1: to stay long until then. And it doesn't really matter
- 15:23Speaker 1: when it happens, because we're riding these trends higher, generating
- 15:26Speaker 1: their returns. And when finally things do turn around, which
- 15:29Speaker 1: I do think will be this year, then well we've
- 15:33Speaker 1: already got a game plan. There is no shock in awe.
- 15:35Speaker 1: It's not going to catch us off guard. Will be
- 15:37Speaker 1: like perfect. Things are breaking down. You know, we're be
- 15:41Speaker 1: rotating our capital from one asset class to another. But
- 15:45Speaker 1: you know, if you're looking for a date, nobody can
- 15:47Speaker 1: really do it very well. I mean it's you know,
- 15:50Speaker 1: if you do, it's you kind of is a fluke.
- 15:52Speaker 1: But it's very difficult to time. You can all make downturns.
- 15:56Speaker 3: All right, So when we talk again next March nineteenth,
- 16:01Speaker 3: in twenty twenty six, where's where do you think Gold's
- 16:04Speaker 3: going to be twenty twenty six, I would think gold.
- 16:09Speaker 3: I think gold could be probably back down around I
- 16:13Speaker 3: would say maybe twenty five hundred dollars an ounce. I
- 16:16Speaker 3: think it will have bottomed. I think it will be
- 16:18Speaker 3: moving up or building a base maybe maybe higher than that,
- 16:21Speaker 3: maybe maybe twenty six twenty seven hundred, And then once
- 16:25Speaker 3: it starts out of that base, then I think it's
- 16:27Speaker 3: offered to the five seven.
- 16:28Speaker 1: Nine thousand range. Who knows where it's going to go
- 16:31Speaker 1: depends on the chart pattern it forms. But I'm definitely
- 16:34Speaker 1: bullish on precious metals long term. But over the next
- 16:36Speaker 1: year I'm not really that bullish on it. Most of
- 16:39Speaker 1: the run has already happened, I believe, and now it's
- 16:43Speaker 1: kind of wait for a pause and reset if you're
- 16:45Speaker 1: not if you don't own it and you're not in it,
- 16:46Speaker 1: I wouldn't I wouldn't really be buying it here because
- 16:48Speaker 1: I think there's going to be a discounted price here
- 16:50Speaker 1: soon for you know, potentially six eight, nine months to
- 16:56Speaker 1: pick it up at a better price.
- 16:57Speaker 3: That wouldn't be unusual at all, all right, So just
- 17:00Speaker 3: tell us where we find you, Chris, How you connect,
- 17:03Speaker 3: How we connect with you on the web. Yeah. Sure.
- 17:06Speaker 1: You can see my charts analysis and watch me kind
- 17:09Speaker 1: of go through the markets on my YouTube channel. Just
- 17:11Speaker 1: search up the Technical Traders, or you can go to
- 17:14Speaker 1: my website, the Technical Traders dot com. And I share
- 17:18Speaker 1: my newsletter, I invest my own capital, and I just
- 17:21Speaker 1: share exactly what I'm doing, what I'm thinking and seeing
- 17:24Speaker 1: in the charts, share my portfolio and allocations, send out
- 17:27Speaker 1: trade alerts anytime I do something. And my book Asset Revesting,
- 17:31Speaker 1: It's on our website or on Amazon. If you're interested
- 17:34Speaker 1: in learning about holding only assets going up and having
- 17:37Speaker 1: five to twelve trades a year using ETFs.
- 17:40Speaker 3: Excellent, Hey gut in questions for Chris myself klat Kerrie
- 17:44Speaker 3: lets dot com is the email address, and you'll find
- 17:48Speaker 3: a link to Chris's site in the show notes of
- 17:51Speaker 3: this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there,
- 17:55Speaker 3: we just asked that you sign up for free newsletter
- 17:58Speaker 3: over seventy thousand close to seventy five thousand of you
- 18:01Speaker 3: have already over the years, and goes out generally weekly. Chris,
- 18:06Speaker 3: we will talk to you again. Be well.
- 18:08Speaker 1: Thanks carry you too, Thanks.
- 18:10Speaker 2: For listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network your solution
- 18:14Speaker 2: to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial
- 18:18Speaker 2: Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever