Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Big NFL Moves & NBA Finals Preview with Matt Moore

Transcript

Big NFL Moves & NBA Finals Preview with Matt Moore · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, your host,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: back at it with the Prime Minister of degen Nation, Stucky,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: and the near return of our world traveler Kendrim Middleton,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: who is out fighting baboons at the moment. I believe
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams stat sound here with us as well. We
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: are less than one hundred days from the start of
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the NFL season, and June first.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Brought some fireworks.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: We had the uh well, the worst kept secret in
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the NFL has finally come to the forefront. Aj Brown
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: traded to the Patriots. Everybody in the world saw that
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: one coming. What we did not see coming, gentlemen, was
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Miles Garrett being sent from the Browns to the Rams
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: for Jared Verse, a first, second and third round pick.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: So let's get reaction from the crew. Stucky, how surprised
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: are you when you saw this one go down?
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: And is the rest of the NFL in trouble?
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: Pretty surprise?
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think this gives the Rams on paper
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: the best roster in the NFL heading in to next year.
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: But I love the trade for the Browns. There's an
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: argument that if you just traded Verse for Garrett, that
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: over the next three years, Verse is more productive. Now,
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: is it likely? No, But when you take into account
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: the money that you're paying them, the age, right, there's
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: a chance at Garrett, who has been as dominant as
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: he's the best player, and he's the best defensive player
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: in the NFL, but he's thirty.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: We've seen edge rushers once you hit thirty, their production
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: can start to slip. We've seen it a bit with
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: Lot most recently. So they're all injury risk as well.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: So what if he's heard, he misses game games, his
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: production slips a little bit. You're paying them all that money,
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: and then Versus entering his prime, remember he's only played
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: two years, is extremely productive for the next two to
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: three years. There's there's a chance that Versus actually works
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: out better for the Browns than Garrett does for the Rams. Now,
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: it's more likely that Garrett is the better player of
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: the next couple of years, but at least there's a
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: chance there. Then you throw in the picks. I love
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: this for the Browns because the Browns weren't competing for
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: a Super Bowl. Ultimately, I think this makes sense for
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: both teams, right. I know you there's a it's a
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: hot take culture, and if you you turn on ESPN
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: and you're gonna have someone arguing like this is the
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: worst trade for the Browns or this the Rams clearly
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: won this trade. I think it makes sense for both teams.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: The Browns are trying to deal, trying to rebuild the roster,
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: deal with the Yeah, all.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Of the the.
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: Repercussions of the awful Deshaun Watson trade. Their window is
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: going to be you know, maybe two years from now, Right,
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: these draft picks continue to hit, they find their quarterback,
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: you assume maybe next in next year's historically good draft
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: on paper, and then you know, you get some of
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: these contracts out of the cap for like twenty twenty eight.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: But it makes sense for them to make.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: This move now because by that time, you know, Garrett
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: then is going to be thirty two, thirty three years old.
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: And then for the Rams, it also makes sense you
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: get the most dominant defensive player in the NFL. You're
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: in win now mode, right, Who knows if Stafford's probably
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: not going to be here in three years, McVeigh, is
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: he going to be there? In three years or is
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: he going to retire? You have a roster built now
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: and the Rams, there's teams in the NFL build their
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: teams differently, and the Rams have a very distinct approach.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: And it's now it's like the meme f them picks.
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: We're going to win. Now, We're going all in. Some
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: people might say they overpaid for some guys in the past.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: Maybe Garrett, you can make that argument, but that is
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: their approach. We are going to try to win now
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: at all costs because the ultimate goal is to get
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: the Super Bowl, and then we'll deal with the repercussions
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: after they were able to rebuild beautifully after doing that
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: the first time around. We'll see how that works out.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: I do think that this makes Some people might say,
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: or now it makes even more sense that they went
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: and got Simpson. I think it makes even less sense,
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: like if you're going to go on, go all in
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: and that so I don't need to yell more about
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: the Todd Simpson pick. But they're clearly all in. And
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: how we will ultimately grade this trade on who won
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: is it'll be revision's history. Did the Rams end up
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: winning a Super Bowl by doing this? If they did
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: it was worth it. If not, maybe it wasn't. But
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: I think that this trade made sense for both teams
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: based on where they are financially, right, Rams had money
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: to spend and win now, mode Browns trying to clear
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: up that cap in the future, not trying to win
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: this year, building for a few years from now, getting
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: a younger edge rusher, getting more draft picks. And by
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: the way, in a couple of years from now, if
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: you those you know, they get a first, and they
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: get Verse, who's I think is probably worth a first,
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: so you get two ones, and then you get the
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: later you know, in a couple of years from now,
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: the Rams picks, which if they're going all in you
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: know for this year, maybe one year after, but maybe
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: they fall off in a couple of years, and those
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: second and third round picks are worth more if their
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: record drops and you get a better pick in those
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: later rounds. So ultimately, I thought this made a ton
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: of sense for both teams. And yeah, I don't think
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: that there's one clear winner. We will crown the winner
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: based on random things, right, like the injury luck of
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: the Rams this year. Does Garrett stay healthy, How do
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: the Browns find their quarterback, right, and does that will
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: if the Browns do find their quarterback next year and
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: these draft picks hit and you know, in a couple
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: of yearsro now they're a playoff team, We're going to say, well,
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: this trade made a lot of sense. If they continue
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: to be the Browns, well, then like you traded a
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: Hall of Famer who was still in his prime as
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: at this moment, and the Browns were the Browns. So
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: I guess, based on history and what we know about
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: the Browns, the Browns are going to lose this trade.
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: The Rams are going to win the Super Bowl this year.
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: Garrett is going to be the defensive Player of the
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: Year because that would be the most Browns thing ever.
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: But I thought it made a ton of sense for
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: both teams, as did the AJ Brown trade.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: You look at.
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: Patriots in I thought that the Eagles got you know,
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty eight first rounder and a fifth rounder. They
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: didn't have a lot of leverage, and I thought that
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: they got a fair haul for Brown and the Patriots
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: in win now mode with Drake may on a rookie deal,
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: go get them more help, got Dubs Brown. Now, I
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: thought that trade made a ton of sense. For both
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: teams as well. So sometimes that's just that it is
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: some trades. It doesn't have to be a clear winner
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: where someone fleeces the other, and we'll look back based
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: on what happens and determine who won the trade fairly
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: or unfairly.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I was the most surprised by the fact that the
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Rams had picks to trade. They've been saying f them
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: picks for years, and I said, how do they have
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: How do they have this treasure chest of draft picks
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: to trade away? Evan, how have we seen the odds
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: move from the Rams. We know the market's going to
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: react to something as big as Miles Garrett being added
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: to that defensive line.
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, obviously the Rams became bigger favorites. They
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: are the favorites from the Super Bowl anyway, I see
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: them at five to one right now. They were in
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: the eight to one range, which is a I can't
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: even begin to explain to you how big of a
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: jump you have to go to move that much of
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: a distance inside ten to one at this time of year,
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: which is I think probably an exaggeration for the Garrett move,
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: just because of the fact that I think Jared versus
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: pretty relatively close to equal, Like it's the same position
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: we can talk about like more sacks, more impact per play,
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: Like there's all sorts of ways that we know Miles
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: Garrett is better or they wouldn't have made the trade.
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: But I think an eight to one to five to
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: one's kind apparently ridiculous. But at this point it is
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: five to one, one of the shorter if it did
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: enter the year at five to one for the Rams
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: would be one of the shorter teams we've seen in
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: recent memory. I will say this, and this is before
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: the trade in itself, but the NFC West is just
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: ridiculous at this point. You've got three teams inside twenty
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: to one plus one team inside ten to one. We
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: haven't seen that in the same division since the two
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: thousand and four NFC East. So right now, the NFC
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: West is just the ridiculous And the Cardinals.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Let me let me pose a scenario for you too,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: and then we'll get to our NBA Finals preview with
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore. More likely to happen the Rams win a
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl this year or the Browns get to a
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl by twenty thirty with what they've accumulated.
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: Evan I think it's more likely that the Rams like
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: kind of flopped this year. And I don't necessarily think
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: that the Browns are this team that's going to make
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: the super Bowl. But I guess I would go with Cleveland.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I'm giving you like four I mean, obviously the Browns
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: aren't going to make it to the super Bowl this year,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So I'm giving you twenty seven, twenty eight, twenty nine,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: and thirty. I'm giving you four years. All the Browns
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: have to do is get to the super Bowl.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: All the Browns, all they have, Yeah, all they thanks,
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: That's how unlikely all they have to do.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: That's how they mopped up in the Travis Hunter trade
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: last year in the draft. They've mopped up with this trade.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: In terms of building for their future. Miles Garrett is stuck.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: You mentioned was not going to help them right now
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: with anything they're trying to do, and next year is
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: a quarterback heavy draft class. I think I'd have to
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: side with the Browns on my own scenario. But Stucky,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: which of those would you take?
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: Rams? Super Bowl or they've never done that? Just get
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: all they have to do is get there.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: Well, they've never done that either, true.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: But this it does.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Feel like they're building a little something. Andrew Berry's gonna
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: kind of cook gain in the front office.
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: So h yeah, I mean, I love their Their draft
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: last year is very good. I love their draft this year.
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: But we'll see how it pans out. But I'm taking
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: the Rams. It's the Browns, and like their earliest I
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: think that there they could potentially be contenders. Would be
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty eight, some of their cap stuff gets less messy,
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: and then that's when they might have a quarterback. Right
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: if you think that the timeline is next year they
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: find their quarterback, these draft picks continue to hit twenty
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: twenty seven probably still be a work in progress. You're
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: gonna have a if it's the quarterback of your future.
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: Maybe doesn't start right away, but he's a rookie quarterback,
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: very unlikely, So you're talking about a three year window
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: if your quarterback hits, and then just to get to
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: a super Bowl, you need a lot to go right. So uh,
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: and it's the Browns. So I'm going I'm going with
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: the Rams.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: Probably the smart pet to make all right.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Definitely a shocker that Miles Garrett is now with the
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: La Rams.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: What's not a shock is that will be.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: But by the way, I will say, the one thing
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: that's worth mentioning is Garrett. If he is just as
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: dominant as he's been, I think like the impact verse
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: doesn't get doubled like he does. It's like, yeah, the
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: impact of those for those other defensive linemen, and it
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: enables the Rams want to play a lot of dime
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: like boxes.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: This enables them to do that even more.
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: And Garrett, if the Rams are stay healthy, that's like
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: the biggest question for the Rams. Can you know it's
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: going to be can they stay healthy? Last year they
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: had a lot of injury fortune good fortune? Can they
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: avoid that this year with Stafford, Garrett and some of
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: their their other stars. But if the Rams are as
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: good as advertised, think about the numbers that Garrett was
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: putting up with the amount of attention he was getting
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: on a bad team that was usually behind. Now if
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: you're up and with that the rest of that defensive line,
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: it's crazy and they're going to be ahead. And then
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: he gets the tee off and faster surface like that.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: He could if he stays healthy and his dominance he's looked,
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: he could put up.
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: Maybe scary numbers, maybe Jakobe Brissett's like, now I don't
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: want to raise anymore, get me out of this division.
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: Well, you know who's the who is the happiest out
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: of all that it's happened, Joe burrowybody, that Miles Garrett
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: and that brown Miles Garrett was caused him.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: Hell, we do definitely need to rethink.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: We will need to rethink our Browns at home as
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: dog's bet, because Miles Garrett was a big reason why
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: that would cash with Frequency Verse.
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: I gotta be honest with you, getting Verse plus a
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: first round pick, it's kind of like you already know
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: Versus really good. It's like getting maybe two and a
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: half first round picks.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: In the deal.
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: Like, I honestly think it's a decent deal for Cleveland,
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: and you know they may not miss a beat.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: And then on top of it, do you have Miles
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Garrett is chasing down the quarterback that then wants to
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: sling the ball to his number one wide receiver who's
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: covered by Trent mcduffy. So they've got they have a
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: super team that we I mean, I don't know that
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: we've seen a roster this good in years. I'd have
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: to do something and the Eagle super team. But I
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: think this team's better that team was. Obviously we're using
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: the benefit of hindsight, but that team, that team is
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: properly overrated, even in the moment.
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: My favorite Miles Garrett moment, by the way, to put
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: a bow on this was the Steelers risking their playoff
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: chances just to just so that they wouldn't have they
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: wouldn't give Garrett the sack record in the game.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Definitely a surprise.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: What's not a surprise is that we will be placing
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: all of our NBA Finals bets over on DraftKings. Matt
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Moore NBA Finals preview coming up. First, a quick chat
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: about the DraftKings sports app. The NBA Finals are heating
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: up right now. We've teamed up with Draft Kings to
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: bring you an incredible brand new offer. DraftKings is now
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: available in all fifty states from New York to California,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: so no matter where you are, you are always connected
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: to the fun new Draft Kings. Customers sign up with
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: the code Favorites, spend five bucks and get two hundred
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: dollars in total in rewards. That's Favorites for the new customers.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Sign up, stay in the game, the crown is yours.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore, senior NBA analyst for US here at Action Network,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: a man who has recorded about two thousand episodes of
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Buckets this postseason alone. It's coming to an end, Matt.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Do you feel excitement, relief, exhaustion? Where are we at?
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: Yeah? Relief. It's just like, Okay, we made it.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: We made it. We made it.
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: Should be a good Finals and then I can take
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: a well deserved break. Oh no, that's right, because the
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: NBA off season is always insane, so it'll just be
• 15:16
  Speaker 6: more work for the next two months. But still glad
• 15:19
  Speaker 6: to have the season mostly behind us and having gotten
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: through the meat of it. Should be a great finals,
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: looking forward to it.
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: Didn't you give out when we did the NBA preview
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: on this show, some as if people were looking for
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: a long shot, some variation of Spurs Knicks final?
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: I think I did. I like the Knicks a lot.
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I like Silver Spurs thirty to one.
• 15:38
  Speaker 6: I think, yeah, yeah, I like the I like the
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: Knicks and their matchup versus the Spurs. I like the
• 15:42
  Speaker 6: Spurs and like the value on them. I thought there
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: was a lot of value there.
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: What do you like about the matchup for the Knicks.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: So for the Knicks, I think if we look at
• 15:52
  Speaker 6: they have a lot of their very built a lot
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: differently than the Thunder were, and the Spurs were built
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: very specifically to counter kind of what the Thunder are built.
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: As the interior presence is big. We'll see if Mitchell
• 16:05
  Speaker 6: Robinson can stay on the floor, that's gonna be a
• 16:07
  Speaker 6: big kind of factor in this one. Towns is probably
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: gonna have a hard time. But if Towns is able
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: to get three point looks and knock them down, that's
• 16:14
  Speaker 6: gonna fundamentally kind of reshape a lot of what the
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: Spurs want to do defensively, because now Victor Wemenyama has
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: to step out, and if he has to come out,
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: that means you can do this cool thing called shooting
• 16:24
  Speaker 6: at the rim, which nobody gets to do when the
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: Teraro dactyl is down there. And so there's like an
• 16:29
  Speaker 6: opportunity for you to be able to kind of pull
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: woman Yama out and then attack on the other side
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: of it. Nicks have wings to throw at their young guards.
• 16:38
  Speaker 6: The inexperienced factor looms very big here. I'm worried about
• 16:41
  Speaker 6: the emotional letdown after that Thunder series, because that's like,
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: you know, that was that was in a lot of ways,
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: like the matchup that was the big one for them
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: and they want it in the game seven on the
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: road and it was really emotional, and so I have
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: concerns that there's gonna be a little bit of let
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: down spot here for the Spurs. On top of the
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: act of Jalen Brunson is just a fundamentally different type
• 17:02
  Speaker 6: of guard than shake Yelos Alexander. It should be a
• 17:06
  Speaker 6: close series, but I do like a lot of the
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: matchups that go towards the Knicks.
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: Do you think that they'll have women Yama guard Cat
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: or like, do you think they'll maybe like dork Hart
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: or how do you think that? What do you how
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: do you think those Spurs are approaching this defensively?
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so it's gonna be interesting. I think it's'uld be a
• 17:21
  Speaker 6: lot of cross matching. I'm anticipating Women Yama and Josh
• 17:24
  Speaker 6: Hart to start and he'll guard Hill guard Josh Hart
• 17:28
  Speaker 6: to allow him to roam. And then on the flip
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: side of it, I think they're probably gonna guard Oji
• 17:32
  Speaker 6: or Josh Hart will take Women Yama. I think they'll
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: probably start straight up just to see kind of like
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: what does this look like? Like how does this kind
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: of go? But they'll be changing it pretty much every
• 17:43
  Speaker 6: every rotation, will every possession. They'll probably try something a
• 17:47
  Speaker 6: little bit different, and they'll go through a lot of
• 17:48
  Speaker 6: cycles to try and see what they want to do.
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: They'll try and guard him with small The question will
• 17:53
  Speaker 6: be will wenb like try and post up or will
• 17:56
  Speaker 6: they run different combinations there When they put bigs on him,
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: they ran him in off of pin downs with guards
• 18:04
  Speaker 6: to get him clearance Victor woman Yaman. So there's a
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: lot of things that the Spurs can do to get
• 18:09
  Speaker 6: Wemby going. I think Wemy's gonna have a massive series. Actually,
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: I think that this is less about It's less about
• 18:16
  Speaker 6: Victor and whether or not Victor can get going or
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: the Knicks can stop him, as it is about everybody
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: else on San.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Antonio Schematically, why is it that putting a smaller player
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: on Wemby, Why does that make sense?
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: So his post up game isn't where it's going to
• 18:32
  Speaker 6: be in three to four years. He took a lot
• 18:34
  Speaker 6: from Elijah Wan and his studies with him. He's one
• 18:37
  Speaker 6: of the you guys that's actually kind of adapted the
• 18:39
  Speaker 6: stuff that Elijahan teaches, But his post up game still
• 18:42
  Speaker 6: isn't quintit there. If you look at him, you know,
• 18:45
  Speaker 6: the size is incredible, but he's still he has a
• 18:48
  Speaker 6: very high center of gravity, and so if you're able
• 18:50
  Speaker 6: to if you have a low center of gravity and
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: you're able to get underneath him, you can kind of
• 18:54
  Speaker 6: take his legs out and not like you know, chop
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: block him, but just be able to stop him from
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: backing you down. Especially with the kind of defenders of
• 19:03
  Speaker 6: the Knicks have with og Josh Hart and even Mikhal
• 19:06
  Speaker 6: Bridges actually is a very good post defender. Now he
• 19:09
  Speaker 6: could just reach around, like just reach over you and
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: drop it in or dunk it because he's his arms
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: or ladders. But if you're able to kind of knock
• 19:16
  Speaker 6: him out of a spot to you, you can prevent that.
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: So then it becomes about you know, him on the
• 19:20
  Speaker 6: perimeter and guarding his step back threes and his pull
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: up shots, and those are all shot things that I
• 19:27
  Speaker 6: think guards can do a little bit better. So with
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: the wings that they have, they can kind of counter
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: that I think a little bit better versus chet Holmgren
• 19:35
  Speaker 6: who is just trying to match him size or size.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: As I mentioned, you've done about fourteen hundred podcasts on
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: I think maybe this series alum an hour and forty minutes.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: With Brandon Anderson. By the way, you go and check
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: that out.
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: Mistakes were made, mistakes were made. I don't We always
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: try and and have some some level of respect for
• 19:55
  Speaker 6: ourselves and the audience and everyone else. But that we
• 19:58
  Speaker 6: just went, we got we would all not the rails.
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: It was a very focused conversation, but we could not
• 20:02
  Speaker 6: help ourselves.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Yesterday, Where did you get?
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Where did you spend the most time on an hour
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: and forty one minute preview of the NBA Finals?
• 20:11
  Speaker 6: Well and breaking downs took a lot of it. But
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: Brandon also likes to talk about like we we put
• 20:16
  Speaker 6: in big picture conversations about stuff like you know, how
• 20:20
  Speaker 6: much dock do you put into what the Knicks have done?
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 20:23
  Speaker 6: A lot of it's about so the Knicks and the
• 20:26
  Speaker 6: playoffs have the best effective field goal percentage on jump
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: shots and the best opponent effective field goal percentage on
• 20:33
  Speaker 6: jump shots. They've made all their jumpers and they missed
• 20:36
  Speaker 6: them all. How do you kind of factor that into
• 20:39
  Speaker 6: the question of like, which of these teams is better?
• 20:41
  Speaker 6: Like there are people that genuinely believe the Knicks are
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: a better team. I don't because I consider the whole
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: season Spurs finished with nine more wins, substantially better point differential,
• 20:51
  Speaker 6: all these type of things, like they're a better team,
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: But the Knicks are and Dadley having one of the
• 20:55
  Speaker 6: greatest runs that you're ever going to see in the
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: NBA playoffs. Like this is they have the highest point
• 20:59
  Speaker 6: different in NBA history right now for the playoff run.
• 21:02
  Speaker 6: That's insane, that's nuts, that's crazy, It's crazy. So how
• 21:07
  Speaker 6: do you have parse that? That's a lot of what
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: we talked about yesterday.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Yet they are underdogs in this series. They've won eleven
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: games in a row, they've been demolishing their competition. What
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: are your numbers say? How different is it from what
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: the books are putting out there? With the Spurs of mine,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: it's two hundred.
• 21:22
  Speaker 6: So I'm leaving the model alone here because I don't
• 21:25
  Speaker 6: think it's reflective. The regular season stuff just isn't reflective
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: of who the teams are in the postseason. But like
• 21:31
  Speaker 6: I've got that, I've got I've got Spurs at eighty
• 21:34
  Speaker 6: six percent that's how good the Spurs are, like all
• 21:37
  Speaker 6: their numbers kind of project for that this number is
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: like that I should be on Spurs. I'm leaving it
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: be because I don't have a lot of confidence in
• 21:45
  Speaker 6: that projection based off of one, how the Knicks have
• 21:48
  Speaker 6: played for the last two to three months, and two
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: I don't think it kind of factors in all the
• 21:55
  Speaker 6: other stuff about the matchup or any of those other
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: type of things. On a purely power rating based level,
• 22:00
  Speaker 6: got like Spurs eighty six percent. I should love the
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: Spurs here, but matchup side, I wind have gone in
• 22:06
  Speaker 6: the direction.
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: Now, how are you thinking about I know you kind
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: of touched on this with a potential San Antonio emotional
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: letdown in game one after such a grueling and really unprecedent.
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: You don't really see young teams like this go on
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: the road and in game seven feels like they're a
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: bit ahead of schedule and get that win against the
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: defending champ, so that maybe there's a little bit of
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: an emotional hangover. I know historically teams that are coming
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: off a game seven win on a quick turnaround. This
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: isn't the quickest turnaround, but a quick turnaround against a
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: team that's had to extended rest have struggled a bit
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: in Game one, but the Knicks, you've mentioned it, they've
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: been so hot, especially from three, and they've been on
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: such a great run. Does this extended break maybe squash
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: that momentum bit? How are you thinking about the rest
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: versus russ maybe overall, or how it pertains to this
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: series or do you think it's mainly just noise and
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: this will just come down to the matchups on the
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: court once the ball is dipped.
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm a little skeptical of the of a lot
• 23:12
  Speaker 6: of the rest of it. We've got people like Joe
• 23:13
  Speaker 6: Delaira over there, who's a massive Knicks fan, should be
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: noted things at rest angle is really important. There are
• 23:20
  Speaker 6: elements of this where there's a four day break at
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: least for the Spurs and that should be enough for
• 23:24
  Speaker 6: them to be okay, where it shouldn't be this big
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: deal for the rest of RUSS thing. I do think
• 23:29
  Speaker 6: it's a little bit different when you have the finals,
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: just because they probably flew yesterday and then today is
• 23:35
  Speaker 6: probably the first media day, and so the media is
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: just like a little bit. It's so different. It's not
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: Super Bowl, but it's dragged out and you have all
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: these different things that you have to go do, so
• 23:48
  Speaker 6: it does mess I think with a calendar for these
• 23:49
  Speaker 6: teams a little bit when they're versus like a normal
• 23:54
  Speaker 6: having four days off. That said, I don't really give
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: a lot of I don't think that the rest rust
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: thing is gonna be a problem for the Knick side.
• 24:03
  Speaker 6: I really don't think it is an interesting question. I've
• 24:07
  Speaker 6: kind of just said. I think the rest rust thing
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: is usually post Ergo propter howk right, where it's like,
• 24:13
  Speaker 6: if the Knicks come out and they win game one,
• 24:16
  Speaker 6: oh you know, they just looked more arrested. They just
• 24:17
  Speaker 6: like had that pop and you can tell how the
• 24:19
  Speaker 6: Spurs just looked exhausted. And then if the Knicks looks
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: sluggish in game one, if they lose just game one, it's, oh,
• 24:26
  Speaker 6: you know what, they were just rusty because they hadn't
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: played in so long and it broke their rhythm. The
• 24:30
  Speaker 6: rhythm thing, I think is interesting because shooting, I do think,
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: is so much about rhythm, and the Knicks have played
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: in a really awesome rhythm for two months and that
• 24:37
  Speaker 6: got disrupted by now they had a long break between
• 24:39
  Speaker 6: game round two and game and round three that seems notable,
• 24:42
  Speaker 6: and they still came out and killed the calves. But
• 24:45
  Speaker 6: having this long off, you can kind of make the
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: argument of like, you know, that can disrupt things, but
• 24:51
  Speaker 6: I don't think I can really cap it in there
• 24:53
  Speaker 6: from a rest rust perspective.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you could have.
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: You could also argue, you know, there is a lot
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: of bias here and after seeing something, you know, assigning
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: what was the cause. But in that game one, after
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: the Knicks had the extended break, it did look like
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: you know, towards the end of Game one and then
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: into Game two, the Cavs, who had a long seven
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: game series, kind of weren't wore down a bit. Uh
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: And obviously the series shifted after that Game one meltdown
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: by Cleveland. But I want to put you on the
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: spot of it here. If you're let me see how
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: I can frame this. You're if you're starting a team
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: next year and you're it's blank, okay, is you have nothing.
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: There's not about fit or how everyone fits. And then
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: you have you're the GM of teams one through five
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: in the draft, and you could only take players from
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: these two teams. You're obviously taking Wemby One, who are
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: you taking in order to through five? If you're building
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: a team next year, that's.
• 25:48
  Speaker 6: A good question. Two is God is still gonna be
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: Jalen Brunson. He's just he's such a He's so good
• 25:55
  Speaker 6: and honestly, I've been so impressed with Jalen in terms
• 25:57
  Speaker 6: of his commitment to defense and moving the ball. Like
• 25:59
  Speaker 6: that's what's unlocked the Knicks in this playoff run, is
• 26:02
  Speaker 6: they're playing team basketball instead of just watching him dribble, dribble,
• 26:04
  Speaker 6: dribble and try and grift for a free throw. Like,
• 26:07
  Speaker 6: they're just moving the ball and getting good shots. So
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: Jalen's proven enough to me as far as being a
• 26:11
  Speaker 6: playoff killers that I'll take him.
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: Second.
• 26:17
  Speaker 6: Third, This is where it gets really tough. I love Towns,
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: but I'm gonna have to take one of the young guards.
• 26:24
  Speaker 6: I'll take Dylan Harper.
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 26:27
  Speaker 6: As good as step as Stephan Castle is. Harper has
• 26:29
  Speaker 6: shown a real calmness about him that I think is
• 26:33
  Speaker 6: really important. I worry that Castle's gonna wind up being
• 26:36
  Speaker 6: a guy with great highlights and great production stats, but
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: the efficiency and impact isn't there. There's kind of some
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: signals of that in the playoffs, turnovers have been a
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: problem for him. He's so explosive, and he's an absolute dog,
• 26:48
  Speaker 6: and he's a gamer, and he is a pure m effort.
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: But I do think I'll take him third, Fourth, I'll
• 26:57
  Speaker 6: take Cat, and then fifth, Fifth, I'm actually gonna take
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: O G. I just think O g Inobi's a guy
• 27:03
  Speaker 6: that helps you win games. He just does all the
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: stuff that you need. He's such a great defender. He's
• 27:06
  Speaker 6: a post up presence, he's got he's got pull up
• 27:09
  Speaker 6: jump shots, he can shoot from the corner. Oh, G's
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: a guy that I think that's one everywhere. So I'm
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: gonna take OG.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: And then yeah, I actually I was gonna guess who
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: were gonna go G fifth. If taking a step back
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: from the players, if you look at the coaches, the
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: coaches and the staffs for both of these teams, do
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: you give one a distinct advantage in terms of making
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: schematic adjustments as the series progresses, do you favor one
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: staff over the other?
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: I think they're pretty even. I lean towards Mike Brown.
• 27:39
  Speaker 6: I think I've been so impressed with what Mike Brown
• 27:41
  Speaker 6: did in terms of navigating the heck of Mitch in
• 27:44
  Speaker 6: terms of getting the guys on the same page and
• 27:47
  Speaker 6: getting them to buy in and sacrifice. Mitch has been
• 27:52
  Speaker 6: awesome too, and he made some really crucial adjustments in
• 27:54
  Speaker 6: that last series and how they guarded Shakeyos Alexander. But
• 27:58
  Speaker 6: a lot of the Spurs straight that's built off of
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: an organizational like they're in a great organ They're an
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: elite organization, top to bottom, player development, coaching. It's a
• 28:08
  Speaker 6: village that that kind of raises the Spurs there versus
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: I think Mike Brown has really taken what TIBs laid
• 28:14
  Speaker 6: the foundation for and brought them to another level. And
• 28:17
  Speaker 6: I just I know the work that Mike Brown's done
• 28:20
  Speaker 6: from Cleveland to other stops to Golden State with this
• 28:24
  Speaker 6: time as an assistant there for the Warriors. Mike Brown
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: is really underrated, I think basketball mind, So I'll tak
• 28:32
  Speaker 6: Mike Brown.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: So these two teams met twice in the regular season,
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: as teams from opposite conferences do, but they had a
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: third meeting in the NBA Cup. We have our first
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: NBA Cup Championship rematch in the NBA Finals, So yay
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: to the Cup? Is there anything because that game was
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: as close to it a final sort of you know
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: with the media, hooplah, And is there anything to gain
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: from looking back at that game?
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: I love off, I love you hoop. I didn't even
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: know these teams playing in the Cup until.
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I love the Cup. Yeah yeah, we love the Cup.
• 29:10
  Speaker 6: We love the Cup.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: But no, there's nothing you to take.
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: So as a good example, Wemby was coming back from
• 29:15
  Speaker 6: the injury and he came off the bench in that game,
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: and the next came out and kind of jumped all
• 29:18
  Speaker 6: over him in the cornet minute. So it just fundamentally
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: kind of reshapes the entire game there. I don't I
• 29:23
  Speaker 6: haven't like disregarded. I've watched all that, Like I rewatched
• 29:25
  Speaker 6: that game. I've I've I know all the matchup stuff
• 29:29
  Speaker 6: from that game. But I don't necessarily think that the
• 29:32
  Speaker 6: environment is anything similar here in a You're on a
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: neutral court in the mostly empty arena because the NBA
• 29:36
  Speaker 6: can't figure out how to schedule this thing. It's just
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: not the same. Like, you know, winning the NBA Cup
• 29:42
  Speaker 6: is entirely different than going on the road in Madison
• 29:45
  Speaker 6: Square Garden, going on the road, Santonio, Like, I've tried
• 29:47
  Speaker 6: to talk about this, like Nixon's the first time with
• 29:48
  Speaker 6: home court advantage is terrific. Their crowd is on top
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: of you.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Uh stuck.
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: I've actually compared it to Alan Fieldhouse because that's the
• 29:57
  Speaker 6: closest comparison that I've come to. It is like when
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: I've gone and scouted prospects at Allen Field House for KU,
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: Like that crowd is mean, Like that's a mean, intense
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: Midwest crowd. Spurs are the same kind of thing there.
• 30:11
  Speaker 6: They are on top of you. I don't think there's
• 30:12
  Speaker 6: any sort of sort of way And as far as
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: like the Cup goes, you're still kind of even though
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: you're gonna game plan a little bit more, you're still
• 30:19
  Speaker 6: very much in Like hey, on Tuesday, we still were
• 30:22
  Speaker 6: flying to so and so. It just it's just another game.
• 30:25
  Speaker 6: It's just a game with some fun stuff attached to it.
• 30:28
  Speaker 6: This is for all the marbles, so the environment really
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: can't be comped.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: I don't think what.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: About the MSG games.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Do you give the Spurs any sort of like Star
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Wemby Bump where maybe the home court advantage isn't as
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: extreme as it typically would would be. Because we've seen
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: that over the years when you have these all time
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: legends that go to the Garden in a spotlight game,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: they go nuts.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, we have decades of this. Yeah, anything to that.
• 31:00
  Speaker 6: I think it's different in the finals, right, Like, I
• 31:01
  Speaker 6: think you're going to get the best from both teams
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: in a finals environment. I think there's a lot of
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: It's always good to look for star players in Madison
• 31:09
  Speaker 6: Square Guard appearances in the regular season because they do
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: want to put on a show. But this is like,
• 31:13
  Speaker 6: we gotta win the game. We gotta win this game.
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: I don't think women Yam is like, well, I wasn't
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: going to put forty up, but now that I'm in MSG,
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: like whom want to kill you every single game? The
• 31:23
  Speaker 6: kids wired differently, so like he really does want to
• 31:26
  Speaker 6: kick your ass every single every single play, every single game.
• 31:28
  Speaker 6: He wants to be great. I haven't seen anybody this
• 31:31
  Speaker 6: hungry to be truly elite off the bat in a
• 31:34
  Speaker 6: long time.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Is there anybody none? Okay, let's take women Yam out
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: of it. What's the matchup that you've looked at as
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: you've come through past games, if you've looked at what
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: these coaches might do stylistically, what's the matchup that intrigues
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: you the most?
• 31:53
  Speaker 6: So I think one of the things that's most interesting
• 31:54
  Speaker 6: is the Spurs don't want to play and pick and
• 31:57
  Speaker 6: roll coverage. They don't want to really want to play
• 31:59
  Speaker 6: at level. They want to drop, but you can't do
• 32:01
  Speaker 6: that versus Brunson. You can do that versus Shay because
• 32:04
  Speaker 6: he doesn't really like to shoot threes. Brunson will absolutely
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: get them up and he did in the regular season series.
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: He shot forty four percent and took a ton of threes.
• 32:13
  Speaker 6: So what they started doing was they started blitzing him
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: even in guard guard screens, which means that there's a
• 32:21
  Speaker 6: possibility of Josh Hart getting downhill if he's a screener.
• 32:25
  Speaker 6: It's the pick and roll dynamics that I'm most interested
• 32:27
  Speaker 6: in here because it's going to make a lot of
• 32:29
  Speaker 6: leverage points of Karl Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, og Anobe
• 32:33
  Speaker 6: if those guys are able to make extra passes and
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: the Spurs can't disrupt the way that they did the Thunder.
• 32:39
  Speaker 6: The Spurs are not a team that forces a lot
• 32:41
  Speaker 6: of turnovers, and they forced a lot of turnovers versus
• 32:44
  Speaker 6: the Thunder, who didn't really have another ball handler creator
• 32:47
  Speaker 6: outside of Shay with aj Mitchell and jadabout So the Knicks, though,
• 32:52
  Speaker 6: Og can handle and Mikhail can handle, and Towns has
• 32:55
  Speaker 6: become a really good hub, so they have ways to
• 32:57
  Speaker 6: kind of counter this, and Heart's got the ability to
• 32:59
  Speaker 6: handle as well. It's those kind of dynamics. How much
• 33:02
  Speaker 6: is Jalen Brunson going to freak out the Spurs coverage?
• 33:05
  Speaker 6: I think is the simplest way for me to kind
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: of describe that.
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: How do you think about the battle, the transition and
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: pace battle here? Who needs to get out and transition more?
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: Who will have the edge there if this turns into
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: a half court battle predominantly, who do you give the edge?
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: Two? And why?
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: So?
• 33:26
  Speaker 6: San Antonio played about as great of transition defense as
• 33:30
  Speaker 6: I've ever seen any team play versus the Thunder. They
• 33:33
  Speaker 6: averaged in that series. They allowed a zero point five
• 33:37
  Speaker 6: to six points per possession mark for the Thunder off
• 33:41
  Speaker 6: of turnovers.
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: That's crazy.
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: The Spurs just ran back and shut down everything and
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: defended everything. And on the flip side, I thought san
• 33:50
  Speaker 6: Antonio's transition attack was absolutely elite. They lead the NBA
• 33:54
  Speaker 6: Playoffs in transition three point attempts, so that's an angle
• 33:58
  Speaker 6: to kind of look at. They spread the floor and
• 34:00
  Speaker 6: kick to the corners. So Jillian Champagnee threes, Devin to
• 34:03
  Speaker 6: Sell threes are gonna be angles we're gonna be looking
• 34:05
  Speaker 6: at as the series gets going. The Knicks, on the
• 34:08
  Speaker 6: other hand, you know, don't. I don't think that they're
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: a devastating transition attack, and I don't think that they're
• 34:16
  Speaker 6: elite in terms of they don't want to play an
• 34:19
  Speaker 6: up and down game. So the Knicks, I think, want
• 34:20
  Speaker 6: to slow this down. I think the Knicks want to
• 34:22
  Speaker 6: run half court offense and they can trust that they've
• 34:24
  Speaker 6: got enough weaponry to beat San Antonio's very good defense.
• 34:27
  Speaker 6: So I think what a battle will be is can
• 34:30
  Speaker 6: the Knicks slow the game down and can the Spurs
• 34:33
  Speaker 6: speed it up?
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: Is there a who would you consider, maybe one for
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: each team, the non obvious X factor for each team?
• 34:44
  Speaker 6: Yeah, So I think for the Spurs, it's probably gonna
• 34:49
  Speaker 6: have to be Jillian Champagnee. If he's able to hit
• 34:54
  Speaker 6: threes consistently, he's gonna get those opportunities. He took the
• 34:58
  Speaker 6: most open, three unguarded threes in the regular season series
• 35:02
  Speaker 6: of any player. He took thirty catch and shoot shots
• 35:05
  Speaker 6: across the three games, like he just got a ton
• 35:08
  Speaker 6: of them up and so if he's hitting those threes,
• 35:10
  Speaker 6: that really balances out the Spurs need for three point
• 35:13
  Speaker 6: attempts and makes that's able to kind of keep up
• 35:15
  Speaker 6: with the Knicks, who are a three point volume team.
• 35:18
  Speaker 6: For the Knicks, you can go a lot of different
• 35:20
  Speaker 6: directions here. I think if the biggest one is Mitchell Robinson.
• 35:23
  Speaker 6: If Mitch is able to play, and you can get
• 35:25
  Speaker 6: the offensive rebound advantage, that swings things in a huge
• 35:28
  Speaker 6: direction towards the Knicks, because they're so good when Mitch
• 35:33
  Speaker 6: is just dominating the glass, grabbing six offensive rebounds, kicking
• 35:36
  Speaker 6: out to shooters. The problem is that getting him in
• 35:39
  Speaker 6: spots where he can play defensively, I think is really difficult.
• 35:43
  Speaker 6: And this may be a series where, quite honestly, like
• 35:45
  Speaker 6: the Knicks may have to go small, which will be
• 35:48
  Speaker 6: a really weird matchup versus the Luke Cornett Nuts Spurs
• 35:51
  Speaker 6: on the same level, I think might have to and
• 35:53
  Speaker 6: the cat four guard lineups. But Mitchell Robinson, I think
• 35:57
  Speaker 6: if he can be playable in the series, that fundamentally
• 35:59
  Speaker 6: changes things a lot, and I think positively for the Knicks.
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: And you mentioned Champagne, is he if you have Victor
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: as you know, letting Heart roam dorking him. Champagne primary
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: defender a lot on Cat as well.
• 36:14
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think actually the Cell will probably take him
• 36:16
  Speaker 6: and they'll hide champagnee on McHale Bridges, which is another
• 36:21
  Speaker 6: reason why I like McHale Bridges to go off. That
• 36:23
  Speaker 6: was the regular season matchup that they got the most.
• 36:25
  Speaker 6: I think Bridges are going to have an absolutely massive series.
• 36:28
  Speaker 6: I can't get to finals MVP on him. I probably
• 36:32
  Speaker 6: should take it, given how much I keep coming back
• 36:34
  Speaker 6: to McHale Bridges having a big series.
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: He also does he miss anymore jeefeh?
• 36:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it doesn't. Miss doesn't, which is crazy because in
• 36:42
  Speaker 6: the first round there was talks of benching him. That's
• 36:44
  Speaker 6: how like lost and broken he was. And then you know,
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: Mike Brown came out was like, we're not changing starters,
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: we're behind McHale, and he's just responded to it. But
• 36:53
  Speaker 6: that to me is kind of where I think Champagne
• 36:55
  Speaker 6: is probably gonna get stuck. I do think they're worried
• 36:57
  Speaker 6: about putting Smalls on Cat because Cat has shown an
• 37:00
  Speaker 6: ability to post up better than people expect.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: I do like the idea of especially if you think
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: the Knicks are gonna win the series of just taking
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: shots on other Knicks other than Jalen Brunson. If the
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Spurs win, it's going to Wemby.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: We know they.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think they win the series unless he's the MVP.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: It's like, it's like Jokic with the Nuggets. It's just
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: hard to make a case for anybody else, But you
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: can make a case for several Knicks being the best
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: guy in the series and getting.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: The media vote.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Would that be a way that you would look if
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: you're a Knicks backer, Do you just look at taking
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: shots on a couple of different non Brunson players.
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: I want to, but I just, you know, I can't
• 37:38
  Speaker 6: really get there because I still think if you have
• 37:41
  Speaker 6: if Mikal has a great series and OG has a
• 37:43
  Speaker 6: great series, or Cat has a great series, Cats maybe
• 37:45
  Speaker 6: the most interesting one. If Cat beats every expectation, because
• 37:48
  Speaker 6: like I watch all the Cat Wemby possessions and Cat Cat,
• 37:52
  Speaker 6: Cat's about to have a bad two weeks. It's it's rough,
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: Webby draws fouls on him. Cat, it's offensive fouls and turnovers.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: It's bad.
• 38:02
  Speaker 6: Like unless Kat just has the best series of his life.
• 38:05
  Speaker 6: I can't see Kat having a good series. But with
• 38:07
  Speaker 6: mikhale or og or Hart or whoever, they're just not
• 38:10
  Speaker 6: gonna get enough volume. There's not and so on some
• 38:14
  Speaker 6: level Brunson has to put in a base level of
• 38:17
  Speaker 6: production in order for them to win the series. So
• 38:20
  Speaker 6: I like, I still like Jalen Brunson Finals MVP. I
• 38:22
  Speaker 6: think that that's like a good way to bet nix.
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: If you're go in that direction, make sure you.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Go and check out the hour and forty one minute
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: long Buckets episode with Matt Moore than Brandon Anderson if
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: you want to full deep, deep deep dive into this series.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: No mistakes were made. People want the analysis.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Also, if I remember correctly, you have in your back
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: pocket a Brunson Finals MVP from many many moons ago.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: Is that another one that you're hoping?
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: I have a cat Anna Brunson from way back ten
• 38:58
  Speaker 6: to one that that one was good. CAT like forty
• 39:01
  Speaker 6: to one for Finals MVP. So like it, liking where
• 39:06
  Speaker 6: that's at. Also, I've obviously added Wemby as this playoffs
• 39:09
  Speaker 6: have gone along.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: Well, let's get to it our NBA Finals best bets.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: Before we get to the best bets, I get one
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: final question. Yeah, and by the way, it sucks when
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: the Knicks win. Those MVP bets are going to be
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: dead when Shaman wins it.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: But take the shot.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: My my question before we get the best Bets, who
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: do you got in how many games?
• 39:29
  Speaker 6: I like Nicks and seven? I do give the Spurs
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: enough respect to get them to a game seven. We've
• 39:34
  Speaker 6: seen the road teams win these game sevens consistently over
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: the last since the since the bubble. I think we're
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: in a new era of road teams winning Game sevens.
• 39:42
  Speaker 6: And I do think the Knicks are going to be
• 39:43
  Speaker 6: able to get to ultimately get this done and beat
• 39:46
  Speaker 6: the Spurs. I've gone back and forth on this. This
• 39:48
  Speaker 6: is a really tough series. It's a great series, but
• 39:50
  Speaker 6: it's a really tough series for me to get a
• 39:52
  Speaker 6: handle of what I think is actually gonna win out.
• 39:54
  Speaker 6: But I will go nix and seven.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: Well, let's get to it.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: Our NBA Finals Best Bets present did by Draft Kings Matts.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: Will start with you series long awards.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Length, however you want to cut this? Yeah, Bet, in
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: the series, there's.
• 40:11
  Speaker 6: A couple I like here Michale Bridges plus one forty
• 40:13
  Speaker 6: head ahead versus Fox at DraftKings I think is a
• 40:15
  Speaker 6: really great bet. Fox does most of his damage in
• 40:20
  Speaker 6: forty five sets and Spain pick and rolls for the
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: San Antonio Spurs, where they wind up with him getting
• 40:24
  Speaker 6: downhill on a big that doesn't really work as well
• 40:28
  Speaker 6: with how the Knicks defend those actions. And meanwhile, Michale Bridges,
• 40:32
  Speaker 6: like I've talked about, he had a lot of catch
• 40:34
  Speaker 6: and shoot opportunities. He had a lot of open looks.
• 40:36
  Speaker 6: He's able to create off the bounce. He's going to
• 40:39
  Speaker 6: get going in second units, so I think he's had
• 40:41
  Speaker 6: more points in the series. So Bridges plus one forty
• 40:44
  Speaker 6: I think is a good look. Wemby one plus made
• 40:46
  Speaker 6: threes at DraftKings minus one thirty another look, really good
• 40:50
  Speaker 6: or really good look. Plus two plus three I'm sorry,
• 40:53
  Speaker 6: is a really good look here one to three per
• 40:55
  Speaker 6: game is minus one thirty as well. Uh, Webby's gonna
• 40:59
  Speaker 6: have a lot of these because I think the Knicks
• 41:01
  Speaker 6: are going to play their base coverage in pick and rolls.
• 41:04
  Speaker 6: Add ninety nine picking roles in the regular season, the
• 41:07
  Speaker 6: Knicks played at level, which means they put two on
• 41:09
  Speaker 6: ball on sixty six of them out of ninety nine.
• 41:13
  Speaker 6: So the natural progression there is you kick to the
• 41:17
  Speaker 6: slipping big on the pick and pop. That's Whyomen Yama.
• 41:20
  Speaker 6: He's gonna have a ton of open looks in the series.
• 41:22
  Speaker 6: So betting women Yama threes per each game and for
• 41:25
  Speaker 6: the series, I think is a really good look. And
• 41:27
  Speaker 6: then three's leader. I've got Champagney plus two seventy Bridges
• 41:32
  Speaker 6: fifty to one and og five to one. Those are
• 41:35
  Speaker 6: all I think really good value bets there as well
• 41:37
  Speaker 6: as well as Jalen Brunson Finals MVP.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: SOLU of them, Stucky, what about you?
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Jalen Brunson to lead this series
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: in three pointers four to one mentioned the matchup. I
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: think he's gonna get a ton up, So let's go
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: Brunton at four to one to lead the series in
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: three has any thoughts there, Matt.
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: I can't bet all of the threes leaders, but I
• 41:58
  Speaker 6: looked at this one a lot too because of what
• 42:00
  Speaker 6: I talked about. If the Spurs come out and try
• 42:02
  Speaker 6: and play high drop, Brunson is gonna absolutely kill them
• 42:04
  Speaker 6: with these he took. He got so many clean pull
• 42:07
  Speaker 6: ups and that's just not a shot that Shay takes
• 42:09
  Speaker 6: at all, and they honestly haven't faced anybody that can
• 42:12
  Speaker 6: do that. Like Ant is not that type of shooter.
• 42:15
  Speaker 6: He doesn't take those as much as he needs to,
• 42:17
  Speaker 6: and with a shoulder he wasn't able to or with
• 42:19
  Speaker 6: his injury, he wasn't able to do it. And then
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: first round series Denni Avdia doesn't They haven't faced that
• 42:24
  Speaker 6: kind of this kind of a guard. So I think
• 42:26
  Speaker 6: this is a great look.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: They're gonna have a hard time sagging off of Jalen Brunson.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's something that they clearly cannot do with
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: the way that he plays. Curious to see how they
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: counter that. I'm gonna go with the Spurs in six
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: at five to one. I think New York is overmatched here.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: We've said it all postseason long. Winner of the Western
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Conference Finals wins the NBA title. No time to get
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: cold feet here. I do think the Knicks have a
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: pulse in this series. I think they win Game one
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: as the more rested team, and they'll take one in
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: New York. Those are the two I'll give them, and
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: I'll take the Spurs to win the series in six
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: at five to one. Over at DraftKings those are NBA
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Finals Best Bets. The Crown is Yours Matt Moore. Only
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: a few Buckets episodes left, Thanks so much for all
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: the hard work. Thanks guys, that's going to do it
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: for us here on the Favorite Special. Thanks to our
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: producers David Paine and Gifford Gold. Stat sound to Evan Abrams.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Keep up with all of the Favorites content right here
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page or wherever you download
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: your favorite podcast. Our show has been presented by DraftKings.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: The Crown is Yours.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: The Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 43:45
  Speaker 6: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 43:48
  Speaker 6: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 43:51
  Speaker 6: hundred gambler