Latest / The Money Puzzle / 2024: Last-minute wobbles in a very good year

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2024: Last-minute wobbles in a very good year · The Money Puzzle

0:09
Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to The Australian's Money Puzzle Podcast. I'm
0:12
Speaker 1: James Kirby, the Wealth Editor at The Australian. Welcome aboard, everybody.
0:16
Speaker 1: It's the last regular show of the year. And while
0:19
Speaker 1: I have a chance to say it, I just want
0:21
Speaker 1: to wish all our listeners a good, relaxing break over
0:27
Speaker 1: the holidays and a prosperous new year. Maybe we can
0:31
Speaker 1: help you with the chances of a prosperous 2025. So
0:34
Speaker 1: watch out in the coming weeks for some special shows.
0:37
Speaker 1: There's a terrific special episode On the FIRE movement, Financial
0:41
Speaker 1: Independence Retire Early movement, which a lot of people have
0:45
Speaker 1: been interested in. I've saved a special show for you
0:48
Speaker 1: on that with Lion Lee. That will be out on
0:50
Speaker 1: Christmas Eve. And then we'll roll out a four part
0:53
Speaker 1: special summer series on how to prepare as an investor
0:57
Speaker 1: in 2025. And the first two shows will be on
0:59
Speaker 1: the share markets. They're really good, if I may say so.
1:02
Speaker 1: On the outlook for markets, that is all markets, the ASX,
1:07
Speaker 1: the NASDAQ, whatever you've got. I've got Mark Doakum of GlobalX.
1:11
Speaker 1: And then there's a second show in the series, which
1:15
Speaker 1: is on share selection and share picking for you, the
1:19
Speaker 1: Australian investor on the ASX. And that's with Jun Bei
1:22
Speaker 1: Lu of Ten Capital. Later in the series, we'll have
1:26
Speaker 1: some shows on property. And once you've put all that together,
1:29
Speaker 1: there's a final show on managing your investment portfolio in
1:34
Speaker 1: the year ahead. So we look forward to all that.
1:36
Speaker 1: But first, let's take a look at what actually happened
1:39
Speaker 1: in 2024. And I'm joined by the most regular guest
1:42
Speaker 1: of 2024, James Gerrard of financialadvisor.com.au. How are you?
1:48
Speaker 2: I'm doing great for this pre-Christmas episode. Lovely to be
1:51
Speaker 2: here with you.
1:53
Speaker 1: Well, it's good that you could get the time. I
1:55
Speaker 1: presume like everything else, it's like for most people, it's
1:58
Speaker 1: actually murderously difficult and busy the last few days because
2:04
Speaker 1: I always have to sort of accelerate to take a break.
2:07
Speaker 1: So by the time I actually take the break, I'm
2:09
Speaker 1: in much worse condition than I would be on the
2:11
Speaker 1: average weekend. Are you the same?
2:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm the same. I was looking at my calendar tomorrow.
2:16
Speaker 2: I've got nine meetings before we have our Christmas party
2:19
Speaker 2: at 5.30. So I'm not sure if I'm going to
2:20
Speaker 2: have a drink or just pass out when I get there.
2:23
Speaker 1: Oh, God. Oh, that's bad.
2:26
Speaker 2: Yes.
2:26
Speaker 1: I've had some Well, what can I say? I have
2:29
Speaker 1: to be very diplomatic here. I've had a surprise, some
2:32
Speaker 1: surprise requests from the editorial desk of The Australian the
2:37
Speaker 1: day before I'm supposed to finish. So what can I say? Except, James,
2:41
Speaker 1: it's great to have experience because I've had lots of
2:43
Speaker 1: surprises at Christmases in the past. So I was waiting.
2:46
Speaker 1: I was just waiting. And of course, it came in
2:49
Speaker 1: this morning, don't you know? OK, now let's take a look.
2:53
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. Every people, of course, they do
2:55
Speaker 1: their wraps of the year too fast, I reckon. There's
2:59
Speaker 1: people doing all these wraps of the year saying the
3:01
Speaker 1: Australian share market will do 16%. It looks like it's
3:03
Speaker 1: going to do.
3:05
Speaker 2: 16%, 18%.
3:06
Speaker 1: Thing is, believe it or not, folks, as we speak
3:09
Speaker 1: to you on the 19th of December, the ASX 200, well, it's, hey,
3:14
Speaker 1: it's good. Don't you worry about that. But in fact,
3:17
Speaker 1: it has waned ever so slightly in the last few days.
3:21
Speaker 1: And we are now looking, if we rule off the
3:23
Speaker 1: books this morning, James, we're looking at about 8.5%. For
3:27
Speaker 1: the year, plus four and a bit for dividends. So
3:33
Speaker 1: maybe we'll still be in the teens, a 13% share
3:36
Speaker 1: market return. And Chant West this morning said, for super funds,
3:40
Speaker 1: for most super funds, the average default balance fund, maybe 11%.
3:43
Speaker 1: Either way, you've got to think it's double digits, whatever
3:46
Speaker 1: happens in the next few days. And double digits is
3:49
Speaker 1: pretty good, eh?
3:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's been great. So for the average super
3:53
Speaker 2: fund balance, they're looking at, as you say, double digits. returns.
3:56
Speaker 2: And for retirees, they've had it even better because we've
3:59
Speaker 2: had the cash rate go up 13 times over the
4:01
Speaker 2: past two and a half years. So for a retiree,
4:03
Speaker 2: regardless if they're in bonds or they're in shares, they're
4:06
Speaker 2: having a cracking year. Yes.
4:08
Speaker 1: Yeah. And when people come in to you, if I
4:10
Speaker 1: come in to you, you know, sort of wide-eyed 26-year-old,
4:17
Speaker 1: my first time sitting opposite a financial advisor, and I
4:20
Speaker 1: know nothing, And I said to you, so what can
4:23
Speaker 1: I expect? You know, what should I expect on my
4:25
Speaker 1: super each year? What should I expect on my shares
4:28
Speaker 1: each year? So the numbers would you give them? Would
4:31
Speaker 1: they be considerably different than the numbers I've just called out?
4:35
Speaker 2: Similar, probably a little bit lower. So it's just looking
4:38
Speaker 2: at the long-term averages over say 10 or 15 years.
4:41
Speaker 2: And so for a middle of the road balanced super fund,
4:44
Speaker 2: which would probably be a bit too conservative for this
4:46
Speaker 2: younger investor, but that's where most people end up if
4:49
Speaker 2: they don't make a choice. You're looking at a long-term
4:52
Speaker 2: return of around that 8%, 9%. But for that younger investor,
4:56
Speaker 2: we'd probably be steering them more towards the growth-based portfolio
4:59
Speaker 2: or the high growth if they have a higher risk
5:01
Speaker 2: tolerance purely because the investment timeframe they have is a
5:04
Speaker 2: lot longer. They can't touch their super for another 35,
5:06
Speaker 2: 40-odd years. And so the return on that type of
5:11
Speaker 2: growth or high growth, then you're sort of pushing those
5:13
Speaker 2: double-digit returns.
5:15
Speaker 1: On average. Of course, they won't always do that.
5:19
Speaker 2: That's right.
5:19
Speaker 1: Over the years, there won't be anything remotely like a double-digit.
5:22
Speaker 1: That's right. Yes, okay. And if someone came in to
5:27
Speaker 1: you now and they were switching from, you know, the
5:31
Speaker 1: mediocre advisor to something better, and they said, listen, you know,
5:35
Speaker 1: it's been pretty good. I'm quite happy with my portfolio
5:37
Speaker 1: this year. I did 12%, 13% on my Australian shares
5:39
Speaker 1: and everything. I'm expecting to do 20% to 30% of
5:44
Speaker 1: my overseas shares and my money is coming in at 5%
5:47
Speaker 1: in my cash. And I want much, much better performance
5:51
Speaker 1: next year. And I want you to guide me as
5:53
Speaker 1: an advisor. What would you say?
5:55
Speaker 2: You just have to bring people down to reality and
5:59
Speaker 2: just look at these long-term averages and look at the
6:02
Speaker 2: possibility of a negative return, which on the average growth-based portfolios,
6:06
Speaker 2: once in every four or five years, we're going to
6:07
Speaker 2: have a negative return on share markets. And so If
6:11
Speaker 2: a new client comes in, the first thing I'm saying,
6:13
Speaker 2: if they have high expectations, is don't expect this again
6:16
Speaker 2: next year. Because it'd be great if we have it,
6:18
Speaker 2: but the history shows us we're probably not going to
6:20
Speaker 2: get another 20% year. And if anything, where we're transitioning
6:24
Speaker 2: clients across from one super fund or one investment account
6:27
Speaker 2: to the one that we recommend, we're holding a little
6:29
Speaker 2: bit of cash at the moment. We're not fully investing.
6:32
Speaker 2: So although they may have a strategy where, say, 80%
6:35
Speaker 2: of their money should be in share markets and 20%
6:38
Speaker 2: should be in bonds, we're actually going, well, let's put 60%
6:40
Speaker 2: or 70% into shares and keep a little bit more
6:43
Speaker 2: dry powder because we just look at some of the
6:46
Speaker 2: metrics around share markets and we go, well, the share
6:50
Speaker 2: market is priced today at a higher valuation compared to
6:53
Speaker 2: the long-term averages. And over time, everything reverts back to mean.
6:56
Speaker 2: And so we don't know if it's going to be
6:57
Speaker 2: tomorrow or next month, but there's probably a little bit
7:00
Speaker 2: of weight there for share markets to drop. And we're
7:02
Speaker 2: starting to see that a little bit now and so
7:05
Speaker 2: we're taking a little bit more of a conservative view
7:07
Speaker 2: we're still investing because we don't want to miss out
7:08
Speaker 2: but we're not fully investing appreciating that we have had
7:12
Speaker 2: a bumper year and things do look a little bit expensive.
7:16
Speaker 1: So what would be the asset areas that you would
7:19
Speaker 1: be taking some profits.
7:22
Speaker 2: Us tech basically everywhere that has growth tilts towards it
7:27
Speaker 2: has gone up a lot whereas the value-based investments the
7:31
Speaker 2: the boring ones which are sort of there where the
7:33
Speaker 2: times are good or bad, they haven't gone up as much.
7:36
Speaker 2: So we're looking at the investments that are priced today
7:39
Speaker 2: based on the growth and the revenue they're going to
7:41
Speaker 2: get tomorrow and where things turn in an economy and
7:45
Speaker 2: where people take profits. And if there's an unexpected event
7:48
Speaker 2: that occurs with, say, global conflict, people sell off these
7:51
Speaker 2: high-growth investments because they're the ones that have the highest
7:54
Speaker 2: risk to them. So that's where we're taking profit and
7:56
Speaker 2: where we're, quote-unquote, underweighting at the moment.
7:59
Speaker 1: The thing is... Everyone's saying move into small caps, right?
8:02
Speaker 1: This is this big theme. Small caps, small caps is
8:05
Speaker 1: where you got to be. Small caps is where this
8:07
Speaker 1: market's been really good. And now the next tier is
8:10
Speaker 1: small caps. If this is a surprise event, that's the
8:14
Speaker 1: first thing that's going to fall, isn't it?
8:15
Speaker 2: Oh, massively. Yeah, the volatility in that sector is much
8:20
Speaker 2: more than most other segments of the markets. So it
8:24
Speaker 2: is true that the large technology companies in the US
8:26
Speaker 2: have performed really well and they're quite large, take up
8:30
Speaker 2: a large percentage of the index. And there is a
8:32
Speaker 2: lot of value in these smaller technology companies. But don't
8:34
Speaker 2: forget the risks that are attached to them. And people
8:37
Speaker 2: have rather short memories. You only have to go back
8:39
Speaker 2: a couple of years where we saw 20, 30, 40%
8:42
Speaker 2: drops in a lot of US technology companies. But we've
8:44
Speaker 2: gone through this bit of a purple patch. And then
8:46
Speaker 2: people's risk appetite tends to ratchet up a little bit
8:49
Speaker 2: because they're feeling good, their portfolio is up, they don't
8:52
Speaker 2: want to miss out. But you start to sort of
8:54
Speaker 2: bring ourselves back to reality because as investors, we get
8:57
Speaker 2: a bit carried away at times with the way that
9:00
Speaker 2: we invest. Our emotional behavior can sometimes get the better
9:03
Speaker 2: of us.
9:04
Speaker 1: And just on the local market, that's even more pronounced,
9:12
Speaker 1: the blue chip small cap gap. And inside the market,
9:17
Speaker 1: the banks driving the whole thing come with bank up 45%
9:24
Speaker 1: in one year. Inconceivable, really. And then this notion that
9:28
Speaker 1: there should be a switch to miners. But just interrogating that,
9:35
Speaker 1: I understand why someone would say there should be a
9:38
Speaker 1: switch to miners. I can understand why someone would say
9:42
Speaker 1: there could be a switch out of banks, but I
9:43
Speaker 1: don't necessarily see the attraction of the switch to miners
9:47
Speaker 1: per se, because the commodity outlook isn't that good. And
9:51
Speaker 1: the iron ore... And the China play doesn't quite offer
9:56
Speaker 1: the readings you'd like to see if you were switching.
10:00
Speaker 1: What do you say to people who are thinking along
10:03
Speaker 1: those lines? You know, I've done so well out of
10:05
Speaker 1: the ASX and the big banks and some of the
10:10
Speaker 1: other blue chip industries that I should take profits now
10:12
Speaker 1: and swing it into small caps and miners. What would
10:15
Speaker 1: you say if I was planning to do that?
10:18
Speaker 2: I think it's from a valuation perspective, it makes sense
10:22
Speaker 2: to sell out of something that's gone up by 40, 50%.
10:25
Speaker 2: And my rule of thumb with the banks is I
10:28
Speaker 2: like to buy the banks when they're paying a 10%
10:30
Speaker 2: grossed up dividend. Whereas CBA at the moment, I think
10:33
Speaker 2: their base dividend is about 3%. So grossed up is
10:35
Speaker 2: probably like four and a half, 5%. So it's way
10:38
Speaker 2: off that very basic valuation metric I have in terms
10:41
Speaker 2: of when it's an attractive time to buy the bank. Look,
10:43
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't switch out of it all together because
10:47
Speaker 2: the banks make up a large part of the Australian
10:49
Speaker 2: share market. And by selling out of your whole bank exposure,
10:52
Speaker 2: you're just creating more issues or you're bringing in more
10:56
Speaker 2: volatility into your portfolio is what I'm trying to say.
10:58
Speaker 2: So they're a good anchor. They're a good long-term thing
11:01
Speaker 2: to have. But in terms of if you want to
11:02
Speaker 2: be tactical and you want to try and sell out
11:04
Speaker 2: of something that's gone up and then move it into
11:06
Speaker 2: something undervalued, well, then sure, yeah, pursue that strategy. And
11:10
Speaker 2: we're confident with that as well. And we're moving a
11:11
Speaker 2: bit of money into it. the resource sector, but it's
11:14
Speaker 2: not an all or nothing type thing. It's a find
11:16
Speaker 2: the balance with it.
11:18
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, but there is a switch going on out
11:21
Speaker 1: of overpriced financials into what might be underpriced miners. What
11:27
Speaker 1: about gold, James?
11:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the predictions earlier in the year was that
11:32
Speaker 2: I was reading this and I was looking at my
11:33
Speaker 2: notes from January, February this year that the US investment
11:37
Speaker 2: banks were saying that gold might go up by 10%
11:39
Speaker 2: or so, but it's gone up by much more And
11:42
Speaker 2: if I'm looking at the forecast for next year, people
11:45
Speaker 2: astoundingly are saying there's still more to go. So I'm
11:48
Speaker 2: advising clients to take profit and sell down, not completely,
11:51
Speaker 2: but take a decent chunk of that gold profit off
11:54
Speaker 2: the table and move it into something else. Because also
11:56
Speaker 2: we have to remember that the bond's generating quite a
11:59
Speaker 2: lot of yield at the moment. Property stocks are giving
12:01
Speaker 2: a lot of dividends. So the alternative to gold is
12:04
Speaker 2: quite attractive. Remembering that gold doesn't pay you anything. It's
12:07
Speaker 2: just a hunk of metal that you just hold in
12:09
Speaker 2: a little box somewhere, whereas you can buy other stuff
12:11
Speaker 2: that will hopefully hold its value but also pay you
12:14
Speaker 2: an income too. So in short, we're not selling it
12:17
Speaker 2: completely but we're reducing exposure.
12:19
Speaker 1: And what are the areas if you were trimming off
12:25
Speaker 1: gold that you would look at?
12:29
Speaker 2: It depends on the profile, the risk appetite of the
12:32
Speaker 2: investor and why they bought gold in the first place.
12:36
Speaker 2: Some people bought gold on an opportunistic basis hoping that
12:39
Speaker 2: it would go up a lot and it hasn't. So
12:41
Speaker 2: for those people, it's taking the profit and moving into
12:44
Speaker 2: something else that is opportunistic. So whether that's, as you mentioned,
12:47
Speaker 2: the smaller technology companies or the mining stocks, that would
12:51
Speaker 2: be a good replacement for the gold exposure. Whereas for
12:54
Speaker 2: other people, it's a defensive part of their portfolio. They
12:56
Speaker 2: want it as a hedge against bad times. And so
12:59
Speaker 2: for those where we're selling down gold exposure, we may
13:02
Speaker 2: move it into something defensive in nature like Australian government bonds.
13:05
Speaker 1: Oh, yes, I see. Okay, very good. All right. Now,
13:08
Speaker 1: one other thing I want to just take a look
13:11
Speaker 1: at before we take a break, cash. So we've had
13:14
Speaker 1: a sort of run around through the share market, which
13:18
Speaker 1: I think the essential point, listeners, from James and from
13:21
Speaker 1: many other people on the show is enjoy your returns
13:24
Speaker 1: this year and do not expect them to be repeated
13:27
Speaker 1: next year. I'd be delighted to be wrong about this,
13:31
Speaker 1: but the chances are that, I mean, honestly, when you
13:33
Speaker 1: see ComBank going up 45% in a year or NAB,
13:37
Speaker 1: if you don't mind going up 30% in a year
13:39
Speaker 1: after doing nothing for a decade. It's the same bank, right?
13:42
Speaker 1: The same economy. I don't see it being redrawn or
13:45
Speaker 1: spectacularly redesigned in that time. You can't. History would suggest
13:52
Speaker 1: and economic rationalism would suggest that it would be very
13:55
Speaker 1: unlikely that we see all that happen again in 2025.
13:59
Speaker 1: But in relation to linked with banks is cash and
14:03
Speaker 1: cash deposits, James. So because the rate cuts never came,
14:07
Speaker 1: this year, the term deposit rates remained really good. That
14:12
Speaker 1: is really good compared to what they used to be
14:17
Speaker 1: over the last decade, shall we say, where they were
14:18
Speaker 1: hopeless for a couple of years. What's your view in
14:22
Speaker 1: the year ahead?
14:23
Speaker 2: So it's looking like that we'll get some rate cuts.
14:27
Speaker 2: And it was interesting that the Reserve Bank have sort
14:29
Speaker 2: of split up their board into two different boards. They
14:32
Speaker 2: brought in two new board members onto this thing called
14:34
Speaker 2: the Monetary Board, so seven existing RBA board members. have
14:38
Speaker 2: moved across to the monetary board. There's two new members,
14:40
Speaker 2: one a former banking CEO and the other one an
14:43
Speaker 2: economics professor. So the view is that this new monetary board,
14:47
Speaker 2: which is responsible for interest rate or cash rate decisions,
14:51
Speaker 2: they're not meeting in January, but there may be around
14:54
Speaker 2: that February, March, April, we may see the first rate cut.
14:56
Speaker 2: If you look at the share market, what they're betting on,
14:58
Speaker 2: they're betting that there's a 60% chance that we'll see
15:01
Speaker 2: a rate cut, the first one to happen in February.
15:04
Speaker 2: And the share market's betting on three rate cuts, three 0.25%
15:08
Speaker 2: rate cuts by December 2025. So when you look at
15:12
Speaker 2: that as what the experts, quote unquote, are predicting, what
15:16
Speaker 2: should you do with your term deposits? And the banks
15:19
Speaker 2: have actuaries. They're pretty smart at calculating what the cash
15:22
Speaker 2: rate's going to be into the future. So if you
15:24
Speaker 2: look at your term deposit rate sheet and what you
15:26
Speaker 2: have on offer, you'll probably notice that the longer you
15:28
Speaker 2: go into the future, the lower the term deposit rate
15:30
Speaker 2: will be because the banks have already figured out that, ah, yes,
15:33
Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank is going to cut the cash rate.
15:35
Speaker 2: So it doesn't really matter if you go for a
15:38
Speaker 2: six-month term deposit or a 12-month. You can't really beat
15:41
Speaker 2: the cycle because the bank has already factored in what's
15:44
Speaker 2: likely to happen with the cash rates.
15:46
Speaker 1: Yes, except I suppose the further out, the more likely
15:51
Speaker 1: that one party will be wrong.
15:52
Speaker 2: That's correct. That is true.
15:54
Speaker 1: If you're locking away for three years, even the banks
15:56
Speaker 1: don't know what the rates are going to be. They'd
15:59
Speaker 1: be better on the shorter term, like we all are,
16:01
Speaker 1: I suppose, because they're able to read the tea leaves
16:03
Speaker 1: over a shorter space of time. OK, very useful. Folks,
16:08
Speaker 1: we'll be back in a moment. Hello, welcome back to
16:19
Speaker 1: the Australian's Money Puzzle podcast. James Kirby talking to James
16:23
Speaker 1: Gerrard on our last regular show of the year. I
16:26
Speaker 1: wanted to take a look at two other things, James,
16:28
Speaker 1: just in terms of review of the year, but also
16:33
Speaker 1: the review only on the basis of what it tells
16:35
Speaker 1: us about the coming year or what it might indicate
16:39
Speaker 1: will come down the line in the coming year. We
16:42
Speaker 1: mentioned about super returns and they're looking pretty good. We're
16:46
Speaker 1: talking about 11% for the average default balance fund. If
16:49
Speaker 1: you have a self-managed super fund, I reckon you're going
16:53
Speaker 1: to do a lot better than 11%, especially if your
16:56
Speaker 1: shares are coming in at 14, 15, maybe in the
17:01
Speaker 1: ASX and twice that on American markets. And if you
17:04
Speaker 1: happen to have, and I bet you do, happen to
17:07
Speaker 1: have something like ComBank or even NAB, then that's going
17:11
Speaker 1: to bounce your portfolio. In fact, it was pretty hard
17:14
Speaker 1: to pick it, but I mean, everyone can manage it,
17:16
Speaker 1: of course. Pick one bad stock every year. There's always one,
17:22
Speaker 1: isn't there? My one this year, by the way, for everyone,
17:24
Speaker 1: just so you know, is Ramsey Healthcare. Good God, that
17:29
Speaker 1: was the wrong call. But the rest, and I only
17:31
Speaker 1: have 12 individual stocks, the rest have been absolutely delightful. Oh,
17:34
Speaker 1: so good. And ComBank, which I have, by the way,
17:37
Speaker 1: since I think 2-0, around the very first day I
17:41
Speaker 1: started my fund, I suppose, which was around 2-0-6-1. Well,
17:45
Speaker 1: that's just been splendid. The IT, the AI stocks have
17:49
Speaker 1: done well, but only market average, really. So some of
17:54
Speaker 1: my beauties this year certainly have been CommBank and NAB,
17:57
Speaker 1: which I did not expect them to be, but I'm
17:59
Speaker 1: so glad that they're there and that I held them
18:01
Speaker 1: through that. The point I'm leading to is that SMSFs
18:05
Speaker 1: probably had much better, probably most SMSFs most of the
18:08
Speaker 1: time would have had much better returns than 11, would
18:11
Speaker 1: you say, over the year?
18:14
Speaker 2: I'd agree with that. SMSF trustees tend to swing the
18:18
Speaker 2: bat a little bit harder and take a little bit
18:20
Speaker 2: more risk when it comes to things. But it goes
18:22
Speaker 2: both ways. In bad times, they tend to hold cash
18:24
Speaker 2: more and they tend to hold it for longer. But
18:26
Speaker 2: we've had a decent period of time of upward markets.
18:29
Speaker 2: And so I'd agree with you that the self-managed super
18:32
Speaker 2: funds would on average have better returns because they would
18:35
Speaker 2: be more exposed to these individual stocks, which have done well.
18:39
Speaker 2: They would have picked a few US direct shares in
18:41
Speaker 2: addition to some of the blue chips here that have
18:43
Speaker 2: done well.
18:44
Speaker 1: Yes, I wish I'd had no cash at all held
18:47
Speaker 1: over the year on my SMSF. Similarly, the non-listed, the
18:52
Speaker 1: unlisted assets were okay. They were all right, but nothing
18:55
Speaker 1: like the shares or the shares in the US and
18:57
Speaker 1: share funds in the US and specialist share funds in
19:00
Speaker 1: the US, which have been great. But that's the advantage
19:02
Speaker 1: of an SMSF. And it's nimble and you have that
19:06
Speaker 1: tactical advantage. And similarly, you must always keep cash. And
19:10
Speaker 1: I'm sure you'd say that to all listeners, or even
19:12
Speaker 1: on the best of times. You've got to keep that
19:13
Speaker 1: cash because you never know what's going to happen. And
19:16
Speaker 1: even in the last few days, there's a bit of fear,
19:18
Speaker 1: isn't there, with the Digico floating in the local market,
19:22
Speaker 1: which was supposed to be the float of the year,
19:24
Speaker 1: has been a flop. That's very disappointing because IPOs are
19:28
Speaker 1: a key indicator. This was the biggest IPO of the year.
19:31
Speaker 1: The US Fed cut rates last night, that's all good,
19:34
Speaker 1: but people aren't listening to the cut, they're listening to
19:36
Speaker 1: the outlook from Jay Powell. And the outlook was pretty hawkish.
19:42
Speaker 1: So markets can turn on a dial, can't they?
19:46
Speaker 2: They can. And in the US, Jerome Powell made an
19:49
Speaker 2: interesting announcement. observation in terms of, he said that it
19:52
Speaker 2: gave the indication that they're only going to do two
19:54
Speaker 2: rate cuts next year rather than four, which the market
19:57
Speaker 2: had expected. And so that's why we saw some substantial
19:59
Speaker 2: drops overnight. But he made an interesting comment that he said, look,
20:02
Speaker 2: What do you want me to do? He goes, this
20:04
Speaker 2: future is uncertain. We don't know what 2025 is going
20:07
Speaker 2: to look like. We have a new president in place.
20:10
Speaker 2: And he used the analogy, it's like at nighttime, if
20:12
Speaker 2: you come out of your bedroom and you're trying to
20:14
Speaker 2: find your way to the toilet, do you run down
20:16
Speaker 2: the hallway in the dark or do you sort of
20:17
Speaker 2: like slowly ease your way down the hallway? So that's
20:20
Speaker 2: what he's doing metaphorically when it comes to the US.
20:24
Speaker 1: A labored metaphor.
20:25
Speaker 2: Yeah.
20:26
Speaker 1: Very much the metaphor that a man in his late
20:29
Speaker 1: 60s would come up with, I presume he's in his
20:31
Speaker 1: late 60s. Yes, I see. Okay, we'll take that on
20:36
Speaker 1: board from Jay Powell. Hey, tell me also, running through
20:40
Speaker 1: the sort of asset classes, and we are running through them, folks,
20:42
Speaker 1: but that's the nature of the time of the show,
20:46
Speaker 1: the timeframe of the show, and what I would expect
20:48
Speaker 1: is the concentration span of the average listener. Bitcoin, tell me,
20:54
Speaker 1: Where are you on that, right? Most advisors always give
20:57
Speaker 1: the wary answer that, oh, you know, if our clients insist,
21:02
Speaker 1: we'll get it for them. AMP, of all people, AMP
21:06
Speaker 1: have broken the mold by announcing that they had put
21:10
Speaker 1: 27 million into Bitcoin, which, of course, got lots of headlines,
21:14
Speaker 1: even though, as we all know, 27 million for a
21:17
Speaker 1: big super is, you know, what they spend on teabags.
21:21
Speaker 1: But nonetheless, they did it, right? They put it in
21:26
Speaker 1: a leading major APRA regulated super fund. So what is
21:33
Speaker 1: your view on Bitcoin? And what do you say, again,
21:36
Speaker 1: to the client who comes in and says, I want
21:38
Speaker 1: Bitcoin in my super fund. And I'm going to choose
21:42
Speaker 1: a super fund that has it. And if I can't
21:43
Speaker 1: find one, I'll find a way to do it in
21:46
Speaker 1: an SMSF.
21:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of people have had their head in
21:50
Speaker 2: the sand when it comes to cryptocurrency. And when it
21:54
Speaker 2: comes to financial advisors, we're very guilty of that because
21:57
Speaker 2: a lot do not understand it. They don't like it.
22:00
Speaker 2: They don't make money from it. So what's the point
22:02
Speaker 2: of recommending it to clients? So they generally don't. I'm
22:05
Speaker 2: supportive of it, but it comes down to that risk
22:08
Speaker 2: return metrics. And you look at what the potential range
22:12
Speaker 2: of returns from say Bitcoin can be in a year.
22:14
Speaker 2: It could be positive 100% or it could go down
22:17
Speaker 2: 80 or 90% in a year. So do you really
22:20
Speaker 2: want to have more than a few percent of your
22:22
Speaker 2: retirement assets exposed to something that has such massive swings
22:25
Speaker 2: upwards and downwards? So similar to the general view, yeah,
22:30
Speaker 2: happy for people to have some exposure to it. But
22:33
Speaker 2: just don't forget like what we're seeing with share markets
22:36
Speaker 2: that good times don't always carry on. And particularly with
22:39
Speaker 2: cryptocurrency where there's very pronounced upward markets, but then it
22:43
Speaker 2: falls off a cliff and goes down dramatically. And if
22:46
Speaker 2: you look at the chart, you have to go, well,
22:48
Speaker 2: we're not down the bottom. We're probably closer to the
22:50
Speaker 2: top than we are down the bottom. So be wary
22:53
Speaker 2: about putting large chunks of money into cryptocurrency now, because
22:57
Speaker 2: to a large degree, some of the good returns have
23:00
Speaker 2: been already made. And the late money tends to be
23:02
Speaker 2: the sucker money. And as the late investors come in,
23:05
Speaker 2: that's when the early investors are cashing out their big profits.
23:08
Speaker 1: You don't have any in principle objection to people putting
23:11
Speaker 1: money into Bitcoin or even Bitcoin into their super by
23:14
Speaker 1: the sounds of it?
23:15
Speaker 2: Not in principle. And it really comes down to the masses.
23:18
Speaker 2: We're seeing the US investment banks start to gain exposures
23:22
Speaker 2: to it. We're seeing the AMPs of the world. Commonwealth
23:25
Speaker 2: Bank had a bit of a flurry into setting up
23:27
Speaker 2: their own little exchange a few years ago. So it
23:30
Speaker 2: seems that's the direction that mainstream finance is moving is
23:34
Speaker 2: in terms of accepting cryptocurrency. And I still have an
23:38
Speaker 2: issue with it in general in that there's no intrinsic value.
23:41
Speaker 2: So unlike the Australian dollar, which is backed by the
23:45
Speaker 2: Australian government and gold reserves and those type of things,
23:49
Speaker 2: there's no value in cryptocurrency. It's just something that someone's
23:52
Speaker 2: made up and decided, I'm going to launch a coin
23:54
Speaker 2: and this is the name of it. And then other
23:56
Speaker 2: people like it and they buy it and that pushes
23:58
Speaker 2: up the price. There's no real use. There's no tangible
24:00
Speaker 2: asset there. So although it has these fundamental flaws, on
24:04
Speaker 2: the other hand, if you look at it pragmatically, it's
24:06
Speaker 2: not going away. And you just need to accept that
24:08
Speaker 2: if you invest into it, you may be 100% richer
24:12
Speaker 2: or you may be 90% poorer in 12 months time.
24:15
Speaker 1: It's worth as much as people will pay for it.
24:17
Speaker 1: Roger Montgomery did an entertaining sidebar in his piece, which
24:21
Speaker 1: is his last for the year, which will run at
24:25
Speaker 1: the weekend, where he mentioned this Italian artist who got
24:31
Speaker 1: a ripe banana from the supermarket and then he put
24:34
Speaker 1: tape duct across it and put it on the wall
24:36
Speaker 1: of a gallery. And it sold for 6 million, which
24:41
Speaker 1: is kind of very close in some ways to some
24:44
Speaker 1: aspects of Bitcoin. It's worth whatever. How much is the
24:47
Speaker 1: banana with the tape duct? What's the intrinsic value? The
24:51
Speaker 1: intrinsic value is probably about, what, 10 cents? And it's
24:54
Speaker 1: worth 6 million. So don't go crazy. trying to assess
25:00
Speaker 1: its value with an intrinsic value, traditional value investing estimate,
25:04
Speaker 1: because you're wasting your time. And I imagine Bitcoin is
25:06
Speaker 1: very similar, but maybe as years pass, people are accepting that.
25:10
Speaker 1: And there's an element of that in gold as well,
25:11
Speaker 1: isn't there, James? I mean, there's an element of that.
25:14
Speaker 1: And the price of gold is not the accumulation of
25:17
Speaker 1: how much all the jewelry and drill bits in the
25:20
Speaker 1: world are worth. It's a different thing.
25:22
Speaker 2: That's correct. You're right. There's an element of the same
25:26
Speaker 2: type of It's worth what people are prepared to pay
25:29
Speaker 2: for it with gold as well, because what has changed
25:32
Speaker 2: with the global gold supply for it to have gone
25:35
Speaker 2: up 30%, say, in recent times, there hasn't been 30%
25:38
Speaker 2: less discovery of gold or supply of gold. It comes
25:41
Speaker 2: down to people and what they're demanding and what they're
25:45
Speaker 2: wanting to sell. And at the moment, people are liking
25:48
Speaker 2: cryptocurrency and they're continuing to buy into it. So it's
25:51
Speaker 2: just a matter of question of, is this time different
25:54
Speaker 2: or are we going to see what happened last year?
25:56
Speaker 2: a couple of cycles where invariably we get to this
25:58
Speaker 2: peak of the cycle and then we see a very
26:00
Speaker 2: sharp and dramatic fall in the value of Bitcoin and
26:03
Speaker 2: other coins.
26:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I can hear a whole cohort of our
26:07
Speaker 1: listeners saying, you guys have forgotten one big thing, which is,
26:10
Speaker 1: of course, Trump. And Trump was re-elected on a variety
26:15
Speaker 1: of notions, one of them being that he would install
26:19
Speaker 1: crypto deep into the US system. And so he replaced
26:24
Speaker 1: the former SEC president commissioner who was literally anti-crypto with
26:30
Speaker 1: an SEC commissioner who's pro-crypto. And they're actually talking about
26:33
Speaker 1: not just institutionalizing crypto, but putting it into US strategic reserves,
26:38
Speaker 1: et cetera. So no wonder it's had a run. No wonder.
26:43
Speaker 1: But the points I think, listeners, that James makes, that
26:46
Speaker 1: it has no intrinsic value, et cetera, and that it
26:49
Speaker 1: is highly volatile and can be Rigged, I think, to
26:55
Speaker 1: a degree by the whales, much more than other assets,
26:58
Speaker 1: and that would include gold, is something that you've got
27:01
Speaker 1: to keep in mind. Folks, we want to have some questions.
27:04
Speaker 1: I've tried to get through all your questions this year.
27:08
Speaker 1: I didn't, but I came pretty close. And I have
27:12
Speaker 1: a handful of absolute beauties that I have kept. So
27:17
Speaker 1: we'll be back to those in one moment. Hello, welcome
27:28
Speaker 1: back to the Australian's Money Puzzle podcast. James Kirby, Wealth
27:32
Speaker 1: Editor at The Australian, talking to James Gerrard of financialadvisor.com.au. Okay,
27:38
Speaker 1: would you like to read the first one from Andrew?
27:41
Speaker 2: I can. It would be great to discuss the impact
27:44
Speaker 2: of AMP recently purchasing $ 27 million in Bitcoin. This would
27:48
Speaker 2: be a game changer for the Australian superannuation sector.
27:52
Speaker 1: Yes, we jumped the gun, Andrew. We did just talk
27:56
Speaker 1: about it. I meant to say, as part of that,
27:58
Speaker 1: is that the RBA, no less, the ultimate, really, power
28:02
Speaker 1: in our financial system, has said there's no place in
28:05
Speaker 1: the economy for crypto. An AMP, once the greatest fund
28:12
Speaker 1: manager in Australia, certainly the most storied, one of the oldest,
28:16
Speaker 1: somewhat battered and shrunken, but nonetheless still powerful and possibly
28:21
Speaker 1: turning the corner as an operation. Just put retiree money in, Intuit,
28:27
Speaker 1: 27 million. So I think that it is a game changer, Andrew.
28:32
Speaker 1: And I think you're on the money there. And I
28:35
Speaker 1: think we'll see more of it over time. And it
28:38
Speaker 1: will become an asset class. And it's no more unreliable
28:46
Speaker 1: than some of the more exotic products that we see
28:50
Speaker 1: in the market that retirement funds are also in. And
28:53
Speaker 1: I would say one other thing about the whole thing.
28:55
Speaker 1: in relation to Bitcoin, is that it can remain an
28:58
Speaker 1: asset class, but it will always just be on the
29:01
Speaker 1: speculative side. I think maybe the changes in behind and
29:05
Speaker 1: blockchain and everything else will be relevant. But also, James,
29:08
Speaker 1: it's correlated now. It's just another asset class and it's correlated, right?
29:12
Speaker 1: So strong markets mean strong Bitcoin, weak markets mean weak Bitcoin.
29:16
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not half as interesting from an investor
29:18
Speaker 1: point of view as it might have been if it
29:20
Speaker 1: was non-correlated, I think. What do you think?
29:23
Speaker 2: You know, that is true. It's like a magnified exposure
29:27
Speaker 2: or a geared exposure to share markets by buying cryptocurrency.
29:31
Speaker 2: I guess the only other thing I'd say is that
29:32
Speaker 2: it's still a little bit of the Wild West. We
29:34
Speaker 2: don't have full regulations in place. So, for example, in
29:37
Speaker 2: the US, there's this influencer who is... became really famous
29:41
Speaker 2: in this viral 10-second clip. And so she started her
29:44
Speaker 2: own podcast. She's doing all this advertising, making money through
29:47
Speaker 2: products and things like that. And she started her own
29:50
Speaker 2: meme coin recently. And this is very similar to the
29:53
Speaker 2: share market, how Back in the 90s, there were a
29:56
Speaker 2: few people who had investment newsletters and they'd build this
29:59
Speaker 2: big database of people that would listen to their newsletter
30:02
Speaker 2: that would come out. But the person writing the newsletter
30:05
Speaker 2: would buy the stock before he wrote the newsletter. So
30:07
Speaker 2: it'd be in these micro cap stocks. It's very similar
30:10
Speaker 2: where somebody will come out with their own coin, but
30:12
Speaker 2: they'll hold like 90% of the supply of the coin.
30:15
Speaker 2: And when it comes out to the public, the public
30:18
Speaker 2: buys it. But then the person who's started the coin,
30:20
Speaker 2: they just pull their 80% out and the price of
30:22
Speaker 2: the coin goes up. through the floor. So this coin
30:24
Speaker 2: went down like 90% in the space of a few hours.
30:27
Speaker 2: This influencer made tens of millions of dollars, but upset
30:30
Speaker 2: a lot of people along the way. But the thing is,
30:32
Speaker 2: it's legal to do because there's no regulations around it
30:34
Speaker 2: at the moment. Yeah, yeah.
30:36
Speaker 1: Buyer beware, okay? Buyer beware. You've heard, can we say
30:40
Speaker 1: it more clearly? All right, Stuart, S-T-U-A-R-T. In relation to Macpherson's,
30:45
Speaker 1: this is an interesting question. Not so much about Macpherson's,
30:48
Speaker 1: but what happened to Stuart in his Macpherson's investments. That's
30:51
Speaker 1: the share Macpherson's. And folks, this is never advice, it's
30:55
Speaker 1: only information. He cites a letter that he sent in
30:57
Speaker 1: to a correspondence that he sent in. Your unmarketable parcels
31:01
Speaker 1: share facility announced to the ASX earlier in December is disgraceful.
31:05
Speaker 1: It makes my blood boil. It's one thing to offer
31:08
Speaker 1: the facility and an entirely another thing to compulsorily acquire
31:12
Speaker 1: your investors' shares without their explicit consent. Furthermore, the reason
31:17
Speaker 1: many people have unmarketable parcels of shares is because of
31:21
Speaker 1: the appalling performance of the company. I get it, Stuart.
31:24
Speaker 1: It's bloody awful to get caught in that situation. So
31:27
Speaker 1: you buy shares in a company. The company is so
31:30
Speaker 1: bad that it shrinks and shrinks to the point that
31:33
Speaker 1: you can't even sell the shares anymore. And you're left
31:36
Speaker 1: with an unmarketable parcel. And then guess what? They do
31:39
Speaker 1: some sort of special arrangement where they share sale facility.
31:43
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. You'd say this is not so
31:45
Speaker 1: much about McPherson's. It's about that process. We don't hear
31:50
Speaker 1: much about that process right now because these are good times.
31:52
Speaker 1: the share market that's going up in double digits. We've
31:55
Speaker 1: had three years of good times. Folks, when you have
31:58
Speaker 1: bad times, this sort of stuff goes on all the time.
32:00
Speaker 1: People are forever complaining about being caught in unmarketable facilities
32:04
Speaker 1: or share reconstructions and share consolidations. These are all the
32:10
Speaker 1: damn awful things you get in downtime in markets. And
32:13
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting, isn't it, James, just to remind
32:15
Speaker 1: people that what is now a rarity where the share
32:19
Speaker 1: market goes against you where there is distinct advantages of
32:23
Speaker 1: being an institution over a retail investor, they come into
32:26
Speaker 1: play when things go down and we don't see much
32:28
Speaker 1: of it right now.
32:29
Speaker 2: That's right. I agree with that. And we were talking
32:33
Speaker 2: about this the other day. Remember that guy who used
32:35
Speaker 2: to send letters out, used to get the share registers
32:37
Speaker 2: of certain companies and he sort of acted very official
32:40
Speaker 2: and it seemed like that he was the share register
32:42
Speaker 2: or the company, but it was actually just this guy
32:44
Speaker 2: in his living room sending off letters to people, offering
32:47
Speaker 2: them to buy their unmarketable parcels of shares. But I'm
32:50
Speaker 2: not sure exactly the details, but offering them a lot
32:53
Speaker 2: less than what the actual value was. So he must
32:55
Speaker 2: be on a holiday at the moment because times are
32:57
Speaker 2: pretty good, as you're saying.
32:58
Speaker 1: Because he's got no opportunities. McPherson's perhaps. Yes, that process
33:05
Speaker 1: where it exploited, often people would be so happy to
33:09
Speaker 1: get an offer of any description. And this is the
33:12
Speaker 1: thing you must watch, folks, on all marketable securities and
33:16
Speaker 1: listed securities. Just keep in mind, that the market, as
33:21
Speaker 1: we said earlier in the show, can turn on a
33:23
Speaker 1: dial and issues which we rarely hear about, like share reconstructions,
33:28
Speaker 1: consolidation of capital, etc., compulsory acquisition facilities, these are all
33:34
Speaker 1: the downside and the challenge you will have as a
33:37
Speaker 1: share investor, and they will return. I hope they don't
33:39
Speaker 1: return in 2025, but who says that they won't?
33:43
Speaker 2: All right.
33:44
Speaker 1: What's the question from Lisa there, if you'd like to
33:45
Speaker 1: read it?
33:46
Speaker 2: Lisa writes, thank you for airing my recent question on
33:49
Speaker 2: this week's show regarding how to invest outside my super
33:52
Speaker 2: account until 2027 with Tim McKay. You had said that
33:56
Speaker 2: you would like to know where you can get the 4.85%
33:57
Speaker 2: on savings with no terms and no conditions, which I,
34:03
Speaker 2: as in Lisa, had mentioned. So the rate is available
34:07
Speaker 2: through Bank of Queensland, my BOQ Simple Saver account, which
34:11
Speaker 2: is only available through their app online. Okay. All right.
34:15
Speaker 1: Well, thank you very much, Lisa. Folks, this is not
34:17
Speaker 1: an advert or indeed a promotion of that. I haven't
34:20
Speaker 1: looked at it. I find it still amazing, Lisa, that
34:24
Speaker 1: there are no terms and conditions on it. But if
34:27
Speaker 1: you say so, we will take that on notice. And
34:30
Speaker 1: just good to know that there are offerings out there
34:35
Speaker 1: that give a deposit rate without all the strings attached,
34:39
Speaker 1: which have become so notorious. It's one of the bugbears
34:42
Speaker 1: for me, at least in the market. So thank you, Lisa,
34:44
Speaker 1: for the correspondence. All right. The final question is from
34:48
Speaker 1: Andrew and it's about black swans, which I love this question.
34:52
Speaker 1: What is the origin of the term black swan event?
34:56
Speaker 1: I always assumed it meant an event, which was extremely rare.
34:59
Speaker 1: But being in Australia, the only color of swans I
35:02
Speaker 1: see are black. It's even on the flag for Western Australia. Well,
35:06
Speaker 1: thank you. I didn't know that. Two things here. Historically,
35:10
Speaker 1: black swans.
35:10
Speaker 2: All right.
35:11
Speaker 1: The term came from historically way, way back 17th century.
35:16
Speaker 1: Everyone in Europe was of the opinion that swans were white.
35:21
Speaker 1: And when some European voyagers, I think they were Dutch,
35:24
Speaker 1: came to the Australian region, they saw black swans. And
35:30
Speaker 1: so this was seen as an unexpected event. Now, in
35:34
Speaker 1: economics and in finance, more recently, it became popularized. Nicholas
35:41
Speaker 1: Nassim Taleb, with his book, which very usefully came out
35:45
Speaker 1: during and after, during the GFC, where everybody was wondering
35:49
Speaker 1: what on earth happened. And his book was perfectly timed
35:52
Speaker 1: because it was all about the black swan events in finance.
35:55
Speaker 1: It's the thing you don't see coming. And that is
35:59
Speaker 1: what gets all investors, no matter how highly trained or
36:05
Speaker 1: highly paid they are. The origin of the black swan event,
36:08
Speaker 1: as I say, historically is actually about swans and your
36:10
Speaker 1: black swans in West Australia are are pretty special and wonderful,
36:14
Speaker 1: but that's the historical sort of surprise aspect of them,
36:17
Speaker 1: that they existed and they were black. More pointedly, it's
36:21
Speaker 1: about the unexpected in financial markets. So James and I,
36:28
Speaker 1: like many others around the world at every level, would say,
36:32
Speaker 1: what's going to happen next year? This is going to happen.
36:34
Speaker 1: That's going to happen. The thing that's going to rock
36:36
Speaker 1: markets is the thing, unfortunately, we can't tell you because
36:39
Speaker 1: it is a black swan. Any black swan suggestions, James?
36:44
Speaker 2: No, nothing comes to mind because.
36:48
Speaker 1: Cleverly dodged there. Why would you walk into that? I
36:52
Speaker 1: don't blame you. Yes, and I have no black swan
36:54
Speaker 1: suggestions because by nature, Andrew, we don't know what they are.
36:59
Speaker 1: And I think that might just be the perfect way
37:01
Speaker 1: to leave us and leave the show for the year, folks.
37:05
Speaker 1: We don't know what's ahead. We've given you every, every
37:08
Speaker 1: chance to understand the context of what's ahead and how
37:11
Speaker 1: to deal with what's ahead, regardless of what it is.
37:14
Speaker 1: And let the black swan come. We'll be ready. We'll
37:17
Speaker 1: be ready and we'll be able for it. And this
37:18
Speaker 1: show will guide you through. Hey, thank you very much, James,
37:22
Speaker 1: for all your help this year and particularly, obviously, on
37:25
Speaker 1: today's show. Really good to have you on as always.
37:28
Speaker 2: It's my pleasure, and I'll leave our listeners with, if
37:30
Speaker 2: you need to wake up in the middle of the
37:32
Speaker 2: night and go to the toilet, according to Jerome Powell,
37:34
Speaker 2: walk down the hallway. Do not run because you may
37:36
Speaker 2: hit your head on a wall. Rightio. Well, thank you.
37:40
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Mr. Powell, for that very sensible
37:43
Speaker 1: piece of advice. I wanted to do one or two
37:45
Speaker 1: other things. Thank you very much. I'll say one or
37:48
Speaker 1: two other things. Thank you very much for listening during
37:50
Speaker 1: the year. I really have been delighted with everything, delighted
37:52
Speaker 1: with the lift in audience that we got, of course,
37:54
Speaker 1: through the year. and particularly the response to the second
37:57
Speaker 1: weekly show. That was really good. If you want to
38:00
Speaker 1: give us a Christmas present, mention that you'd like to
38:03
Speaker 1: show to one other person over the Christmas break and
38:06
Speaker 1: keep the emails coming. We'd love to collect them for
38:09
Speaker 1: the new year. themoneypuzzleattheaustralian.com.au Thanks, James.
38:14
Speaker 2: Thanks, everybody.
38:15
Speaker 1: Talk to you soon. Thank you.