Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Chuck's prediction for Nvidia in China is coming true

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Chuck's prediction for Nvidia in China is coming true · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Paul.
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Speaker 2: Lane, Chuck, Paul, and Tucker with you here on a
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Speaker 2: FED day at two pm Eastern in this afternoon, the
1:16
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve is going to release its statement on monetary policy.
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1:23
Speaker 2: cut interest rates by a quarter percent. There is the
1:27
Speaker 2: possibility that we see a half percentage point cut in
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Speaker 2: percent change is what is being priced into markets right now. Also,
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Speaker 2: we're going to be getting a summary of economic projections.
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Speaker 2: are going to be at the end of this year,
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Speaker 2: next year, twenty twenty seven, and long run projections there
1:55
Speaker 2: and so we can get a sense of their thinking
1:57
Speaker 2: as to how these things may evolve over the next
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Speaker 2: year or two and what their policy may be during
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Speaker 2: that time. Also, if you're interested in the Fed drama,
2:09
Speaker 2: you got Steven Miron with his first ever appearance at
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Speaker 2: the FED for a FED meeting, and Lisa Cook is
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Speaker 2: gonna be there as well, after her appeals were successful
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Speaker 2: in allowing her to be at this meeting. So if
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Speaker 2: you want you know the reality TV aspect of it,
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Speaker 2: and the most dramatic season of the FED ever, then yeah,
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Speaker 2: you've got that today. The thing that quite honestly matters
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Speaker 2: more to me is, hey, what are they actually going
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Speaker 2: to do from a policy perspective, because that is what
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Speaker 2: actually impacts all of us on a daily basis. But
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Speaker 2: you got to acknowledge the drama that's going to be there,
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Speaker 2: because quite honestly, it is the most dramatic FED meeting ever,
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Speaker 2: even though the policy outcome is not likely to be
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Speaker 2: as dramatic though, but we do anticipate a rate cut there,
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Speaker 2: so that is going to be coming up at.
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Speaker 3: Two pm Eastern in just a little bit.
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Speaker 2: We turn our attention now just because again there's not
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Speaker 2: much else to say on that they haven't done anything yet,
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Speaker 2: And don't worry, we'll recap it all tomorrow for a
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Speaker 2: ton of time. We'll probably spend most of if not all,
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Speaker 2: of the show talking about the FED, because I do
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Speaker 2: think there's gonna be a lot to chew on there.
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Speaker 2: But we turn now to a topic where I couldn't
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Speaker 2: be happy to take this victory lap. I could be
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Speaker 2: because honestly, I'm not sure this is like a great
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Speaker 2: thing for the US, but.
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Speaker 4: No, it's not. But great thing for the financial exchange
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Speaker 4: and chucks out.
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Speaker 2: Gosh, I love to take victory laps on stuff like this,
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Speaker 2: So over the summer I speculated a couple of different
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Speaker 2: times that hey, even if the Trump administration approves the
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Speaker 2: export of Nvidia to chips to China, it's not a
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Speaker 2: given that China wouldness necessarily want to resume them. I
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Speaker 2: actually had Tucker poll actually Ben pulled the audio of
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Speaker 2: the show, and so let's play it right now, just
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Speaker 2: to hear what we were talking about a little while ago.
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Speaker 2: The other piece to me, that's interesting, and I said
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Speaker 2: this a few weeks ago when in Video got the
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Speaker 2: approval to send the H twenty chips over to China.
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Speaker 2: Wouldn't the most interesting thing be if China all of
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Speaker 2: a sudden just said, eh, we're not interested anymore. And
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Speaker 2: I just think it would be very interesting if China,
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Speaker 2: at this point in time, as they're going through these negotiations,
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Speaker 2: might say, you know what, we can figure out ways
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Speaker 2: to develop AI in the short term without in Video chips.
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Speaker 2: But gosh, it would sure hurt the US economy or
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Speaker 2: the US stock market if we just decided not to
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Speaker 2: buy them right now. So that's what I said on
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Speaker 2: August eleven, So that was five and a half weeks ago,
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Speaker 2: somewhere in that ballpark. And today, according to a report
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Speaker 2: from The Financial Times, China's internet regulator has banned the
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Speaker 2: country's biggest technology companies from buying in Vidia's artificial intelligence chips.
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Speaker 2: This is, you know, official banning today, not you know, hey,
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Speaker 2: the last couple weeks of well, we might dissuade you
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Speaker 2: from doing so.
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Speaker 3: This is no.
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Speaker 2: We are going to ban Chinese domestic large companies from
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Speaker 2: buying these Nvidia chips and less. Do you think that
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Speaker 2: this is something that seems like it's gonna just be
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Speaker 2: easily negotiated away? In Vidio CEO Jensen Huang was interviewed,
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Speaker 2: or rather gave a comment at least to the Financial
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Speaker 2: Times on this, and he said, we can only be
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Speaker 2: of service in a market if a country wants us
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Speaker 2: to be. We've probably contributed more to the China market
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Speaker 2: than most countries have, and I'm disappointed with what I see.
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Speaker 2: But they have larger agendas to work out between China
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Speaker 2: and the unit it states, and I'm understanding of that.
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Speaker 2: So that doesn't really sound like a person who thinks
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Speaker 2: that this is just going to be reversed in a
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Speaker 2: couple of weeks. That sounds like someone who's kind.
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Speaker 3: Of like.
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Speaker 2: I just lost It's like it's I. That's someone who
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Speaker 2: just says says like, I've spent the past six months
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Speaker 2: trying to make so much. I've been going back and
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Speaker 2: forth between the US and China. I've been at the
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Speaker 2: White House, you know, a half dozen times. I've got
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Speaker 2: the people I need on board with this, and you're
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Speaker 2: just gonna say no. And like it's the first time
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Speaker 2: I've ever heard him sound a little dejected about anything. Yeah,
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Speaker 2: you know, So I think that what we're you know,
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Speaker 2: the inference that you can make from this is China
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Speaker 2: thinks that it can figure out the chip side well enough.
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Speaker 2: It might not be as well as using the Nvidio chips,
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Speaker 2: but they think they have enough that they can do
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Speaker 2: with domestically sourced chips to be able to produce what
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Speaker 2: they need. There the obvious question that I have next,
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Speaker 2: And Tucker, I'm gonna write this down somewhere just so
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Speaker 2: we have it marked down, because Ben spent like an
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Speaker 2: hour looking for that quote just so that we could
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Speaker 2: find it to talk about it. The obvious question that
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Speaker 2: I have next, the US doesn't in Nvidia doesn't just
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Speaker 2: want to sell chips to US companies. I don't think
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Speaker 2: you have it like a real convincing case that I
7:31
Speaker 2: don't think you have a convincing case that Microsoft is
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Speaker 2: going to all of a sudden be like, hey, these
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Speaker 2: domestically made China chips, do you think we should go
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Speaker 2: get some of the I don't get the sense that
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Speaker 2: that's going to happen.
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Speaker 4: But European South America flooding with weak, cheaper chips.
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Speaker 2: Europe, I think it'll actually be strong enough to fend
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Speaker 2: this off, just because they did it with Huawei a
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Speaker 2: few years back, even though they let Chinese EV manufacturers
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Speaker 2: come in and just run rough shot.
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Speaker 3: Over their auto industry.
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Speaker 2: Yep, for whatever reason, they actually took a stand on telecom.
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Speaker 2: It's good for them, Like I appreciate them doing so.
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Speaker 2: But the question that I do have is, hey, over
8:07
Speaker 2: the course of the spring, there was the big presidential
8:12
Speaker 2: trip through the Middle East where a bunch of Middle
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Speaker 2: Eastern countries committed to buying in video chips as well.
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Speaker 2: Does China come in and say, hey, you know what,
8:24
Speaker 2: we're the biggest buyer of your oil at this point. Anyways, Sure,
8:28
Speaker 2: I know that you want, you know, cruise missiles from raytheon.
8:34
Speaker 2: But how about you take some of the stuff that
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Speaker 2: we're making on the defense side and we'll sell you
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Speaker 2: these chips at a big discount to in Vidia. It's
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Speaker 2: a win win for you. That's the That's the next
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Speaker 2: thing that I look at, because it's clear to me
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Speaker 2: that China is looking at It's clear to me that
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Speaker 2: China's looking at in Vidia and purchases by anyone from
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Speaker 2: them as a way to make the United States pay
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Speaker 2: economically without having to do anything from a terror for
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Speaker 2: trade perspective directly with US.
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Speaker 4: This is the demarcation of a AI battle between China
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Speaker 4: and the US. This is the official declaration. You could
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Speaker 4: have speculated to this the last three to six months
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Speaker 4: with some of the back and forth, but I think
9:22
Speaker 4: after not to say this was the reason behind it,
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Speaker 4: but some of Besson's comments, Treasure Secretary Besson just claiming
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Speaker 4: how weak the technology was of the H twenty chips,
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Speaker 4: it seemed to potentially have irged China a bit. And
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Speaker 4: ultimately I'm not saying that that was the main catalyst
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Speaker 4: for this, but this had been brewing for a while
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Speaker 4: that since we saw the unveiling of Deep Seek and
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Speaker 4: just the way that China has been aggressively going after AI,
9:49
Speaker 4: they are clearly going to make this a significant priority.
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Speaker 4: In fact, they wanted to triple the country's output of
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Speaker 4: AI processors this year. So this is a big item
9:59
Speaker 4: on their agenda. And you better believe, like you mentioned,
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Speaker 4: it's easy to make the next jump to from a
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Speaker 4: conclusion standpoint, why wouldn't they flood the global market with
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Speaker 4: as many as these chips as they can.
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Speaker 3: It's what China does.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, look at the EV market you mentioned it before.
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Speaker 4: It's going to be the same sort of thing. And
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Speaker 4: that's where the competition begins. It continues. I guess it's
10:21
Speaker 4: been a competition before. This is when on the domestic
10:24
Speaker 4: side of things, we got to ramp up and really
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Speaker 4: continue to compete to be the most sophisticating, the best
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Speaker 4: chips on the market.
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Speaker 2: Now I can also make a convincing case that from
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Speaker 2: a national security perspective, maybe you shouldn't be supplying China
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Speaker 2: with these chips anyways, So this might end up being
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Speaker 2: a blessing in disguise On that side, even though it's
10:47
Speaker 2: not the best thing economically for in video.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a.
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Speaker 4: Really hard You could go side by side and arget
10:52
Speaker 4: either way. If you want to argue geess, we should
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Speaker 4: have a footprint there and have them reliant on our technology,
10:57
Speaker 4: because then we're controlling the game by buying the I'm
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Speaker 4: buying all our H twenty chips. It's better to be
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Speaker 4: have them with us. But then you could also make
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Speaker 4: the counter argument, jeez, perhaps it's not best to ship
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Speaker 4: them to China. Anyway, It's kind of you could argue
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Speaker 4: it either way, but ultimately we're going to get our
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Speaker 4: result is just we're not going to have chips that
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Speaker 4: are exported there.
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Speaker 2: To take a quick break, and when we return, let's
11:24
Speaker 2: do a little bit of trivia and then we'll talk
11:26
Speaker 2: about the I want to talk more about the electricity
11:28
Speaker 2: demands of all this AI data center construction, because they
11:33
Speaker 2: are enormous, and we do have a piece from the
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Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal that's trying to make the case, hey,
11:38
Speaker 2: AI can actually help us consume less energy. We'll talk
11:42
Speaker 2: about whether that's realistic or just a bunch of poppycock.
11:45
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Speaker 5: All right, time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange.
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13:19
Speaker 2: Piece in the Wall Street Journal, AI is going to
13:22
Speaker 2: consume a lot of energy. It can also help us
13:25
Speaker 2: consume less. Discuss chuck this this piece. This is ridiculous.
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Speaker 4: I get what they're trying to go for here, but
13:34
Speaker 4: I just am not buying the reason for it. So
13:36
Speaker 4: basically what's laid on this Wall Street Journal piece is
13:39
Speaker 4: that with the use of AI, it will allow for
13:43
Speaker 4: companies to be more efficient and utilize this technology to
13:48
Speaker 4: cut down on time sitting in traffic, to improve their
13:52
Speaker 4: freight businesses, to improve marine freight, all these different areas
13:56
Speaker 4: where a lot of gas and fuel is burned, increasing
14:00
Speaker 4: harbon emissions. And I just the reason I think it's
14:02
Speaker 4: absolutely preposterous is we've talked about the demand that this
14:05
Speaker 4: is going to create on the grid. It is going
14:08
Speaker 4: to be tremendous, and we've already seen electricity prices ticking
14:12
Speaker 4: up because of some of this demand, and it's probably
14:13
Speaker 4: only going to compound and get worse because there's a
14:16
Speaker 4: lot of demand out there for these data centers. To
14:18
Speaker 4: think over the last ten or fifteen years, that companies
14:22
Speaker 4: haven't been using this type of technology to optimize their
14:26
Speaker 4: roots to track performance of their vehicles is just ludicrous.
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Speaker 4: Like this, this isn't new. Just because you call something
14:33
Speaker 4: AI doesn't mean that Uber Freight or Amazon or many
14:37
Speaker 4: of these other companies over the last decade haven't been
14:40
Speaker 4: using technology to analyze their cost structure as much as
14:44
Speaker 4: possible in their trucks. So that is my rent.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, a couple different things on this.
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Speaker 2: The first is the AI technology that we've largely been
14:52
Speaker 2: talking about for the last three years is known as
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Speaker 2: LM's large Language models, which are basically, hey, here, there's
15:00
Speaker 2: trillions of different, you know, combinations of words that have
15:03
Speaker 2: been used historically. I'm gonna ask you a question and
15:06
Speaker 2: based on like the data set that I trained you
15:08
Speaker 2: on all those different words, you're gonna spit something back
15:11
Speaker 2: to me. The really interesting thing the way that llllms
15:14
Speaker 2: learn how do we use what words go in certain
15:17
Speaker 2: places is basically how your kids do it's kind of cool.
15:19
Speaker 2: Like you, when you're you're teaching like a two year
15:22
Speaker 2: old how to speak, you don't say, well, here's what
15:25
Speaker 2: the word the means. It's no, they like repeat you
15:27
Speaker 2: and learning the context of different phrases, and they pick
15:29
Speaker 2: it up as they go. Llllms are kind of the
15:31
Speaker 2: same thing. It's just that instead of training them, you know,
15:34
Speaker 2: through a few words, they pick up every you know,
15:36
Speaker 2: week or month.
15:37
Speaker 3: At first.
15:38
Speaker 2: Hey, here's like five trillion words, like go figure out
15:40
Speaker 2: how to deal with this the stuff that we're talking
15:44
Speaker 2: about here, Like they're giving an example of airlines are
15:48
Speaker 2: using AI to help with dynamic route planning by understanding
15:51
Speaker 2: like where the wind's blowing. And that's called machine learning.
15:54
Speaker 2: And that's stuff that's been going on for ten fifteen
15:57
Speaker 2: years now. I can you know, I've had conversation with
16:00
Speaker 2: like friends of mine who have been doing this literally
16:04
Speaker 2: since you know, twenty thirteen, twenty twelve, somewhere in that ballpark.
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Speaker 2: So the stuff that we're talking about now with large
16:13
Speaker 2: language models, that's the stuff that's causing the real ramp
16:16
Speaker 2: up in data center building.
16:18
Speaker 3: It's not United saying well.
16:21
Speaker 2: We want to know which way the wind's blowing like no, Like,
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Speaker 2: there's a reason why United is not building their own
16:26
Speaker 2: data centers. It's because they just don't need that much
16:29
Speaker 2: compute capacity to figure that out. You do need a
16:33
Speaker 2: bunch of compute capacity when you know, idiots like me
16:36
Speaker 2: are throwing stuff in, like hey, give me four good
16:38
Speaker 2: chicken recipes to make if I have these things in
16:41
Speaker 2: the fridge, Like okay, yeah, you need a bunch of
16:44
Speaker 2: compute capacity in order to figure that stuff out when
16:47
Speaker 2: you know hundreds of millions of people are starting to
16:50
Speaker 2: use this stuff. The other piece, I'm gonna, you know,
16:54
Speaker 2: just do like a comparison here, man, Americans wasted three
16:59
Speaker 2: point three billion dollars three point three billion gallons of
17:02
Speaker 2: gasoline and diesel fuel in twenty twenty two, over two
17:06
Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day. So here's the thing.
17:10
Speaker 2: About two hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day. I'm
17:12
Speaker 2: not saying it's not consequential, But what I am saying
17:16
Speaker 2: is the United States in any given day uses like
17:18
Speaker 2: eighteen to nineteen million barrels a day somewhere in that ballpark.
17:22
Speaker 2: So two hundred and fifteen thousand barrels a day of
17:25
Speaker 2: gas wasted sitting in traffic is like one percent of
17:28
Speaker 2: our total Right now, the projections for AI electricity usage,
17:35
Speaker 2: for data center electricity usage is that it's gonna go
17:38
Speaker 2: from being about four percent of our electricity usage last
17:42
Speaker 2: year to twelve percent in twenty twenty eight. So you're
17:46
Speaker 2: telling me if AI and by the way, it's not
17:49
Speaker 2: these large language models won't do it. But hey, if
17:51
Speaker 2: AI can somehow get rid of all traffic, let me
17:57
Speaker 2: repeat how ridiculous that is. If AI can somehow get
18:01
Speaker 2: rid of all traffic, it can save us about one
18:05
Speaker 2: percent of our daily gas usage.
18:09
Speaker 3: But the electricity usage by.
18:11
Speaker 2: The AI is going to go from four percent to
18:14
Speaker 2: twelve percent. Something's not mathing in the math, Paul. And
18:19
Speaker 2: so this even is before you get to the point that, Hey, generally,
18:24
Speaker 2: when you make it so that you have less demand
18:27
Speaker 2: for something and thus the cost of it goes down,
18:31
Speaker 2: you get into Javon's paradox, which is, hey, is you
18:34
Speaker 2: make something cheaper, people buy more of it, and so
18:36
Speaker 2: you don't actually get these savings that you do, most
18:39
Speaker 2: notably in things like energy. When energy becomes cheaper, people
18:43
Speaker 2: don't say, well, I'm gonna use less of it. They say, no,
18:45
Speaker 2: I'm gonna use more. I have all this money I saved,
18:48
Speaker 2: I can I can. You know I need more energy
18:50
Speaker 2: now in order to do more stuff.
18:54
Speaker 4: I just can't get over. It's, you know, reitering points
18:57
Speaker 4: that have been going on for decades plus in these businesses.
19:00
Speaker 4: These tactics have been used. You have to believe Amazon
19:04
Speaker 4: and all these sophistic companies, they're always looking at their
19:06
Speaker 4: bottom line to cut their expenses and how they can
19:08
Speaker 4: increase profitabilities. So the fact that they have, however, many
19:11
Speaker 4: hundreds of thousands of trucks driving around a daily basis
19:14
Speaker 4: that they're not studying that, you're out of your mind.
19:17
Speaker 4: If they haven't been, they don't think they haven't been
19:18
Speaker 4: doing this.
19:19
Speaker 2: They're that suddenly gonna be like, hey, hey, chat GPT,
19:23
Speaker 2: can you tell me which way the wind's blowing? Yes,
19:26
Speaker 2: of course I can. Where would you like to go?
19:28
Speaker 2: Jeff quick break. When we come back, we'll get the
19:32
Speaker 2: trivia answer next.
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Speaker 1: what's moving markets so far today right here on the
19:56
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio network.
19:58
Speaker 5: The markets are mixed territory. The head of the expected
20:01
Speaker 5: quarter percent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at
20:04
Speaker 5: the conclusion of their meeting at two o'clock. BET Chairman
20:08
Speaker 5: Jerome poul will speak further about the Central Banks decision
20:11
Speaker 5: during a press conference.
20:12
Speaker 3: At two thirty.
20:13
Speaker 5: Right now, the Dow is up by nearly seven tenths
20:16
Speaker 5: of one percent or three hundred and four points higher.
20:20
Speaker 5: SMP five hundred is down about a tenth of percent,
20:23
Speaker 5: NASDAC down about half a percent or one hundred and
20:26
Speaker 5: fourteen points lower. Russell two thousand now up over one
20:29
Speaker 5: percent on the day, Tenure Treasure reeled is mostly unchanged
20:34
Speaker 5: and is now at four point zero three five percent,
20:38
Speaker 5: and crude oil down six tenths of one percent, trading
20:41
Speaker 5: right around sixty four dollars barrel. Some more news as
20:44
Speaker 5: it relates to in Nvidia and China this morning. According
20:47
Speaker 5: to The Financial Times, China's internet regulator has banned the
20:51
Speaker 5: country's largest tech firms from buying in Vidia's AI chips,
20:55
Speaker 5: increasing China's efforts to lift its domestic industry and compete
21:00
Speaker 5: with the United States. And video stock is down nearly
21:03
Speaker 5: three percent on that news. Meanwhile, Lift shares are soaring
21:09
Speaker 5: twelve percent, falling news that Weimo has partnered with Lyft
21:13
Speaker 5: for the first time in a commercial deal to enter
21:16
Speaker 5: Nashville next year. Elsewhere, General Mills posted mixed quarterly results
21:20
Speaker 5: where it's earnings beat expectations but its organic sales growth
21:24
Speaker 5: was about in line with expectations. Shares in the food
21:28
Speaker 5: producer are down about one percent. Workday stock is jumping
21:33
Speaker 5: eight percent after activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a two
21:37
Speaker 5: billion dollar stake in the human resources software provider, and
21:41
Speaker 5: Bernstein upgraded Zillo to outperform from market perform, where the
21:45
Speaker 5: firm said it has been warming up to Zillo's fundamental
21:48
Speaker 5: story inside of the company's a recent execution on revenue
21:52
Speaker 5: growth as a factor. Zillo shares are up over three percent.
21:56
Speaker 5: I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch and
21:59
Speaker 5: in THEBS segment, we asked you the trivia question how
22:03
Speaker 5: many seasons did Carl Ustremsky play for the Boston Red Sox.
22:07
Speaker 5: That would be twenty three seasons. Bill from Medford, Mass
22:12
Speaker 5: is our winner today, taking home a Financial Exchange Show
22:15
Speaker 5: T shirt. Congrats to Bill and we play trivia every
22:18
Speaker 5: day here in the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules
22:22
Speaker 5: at Financial Exchange show dot com.
22:24
Speaker 2: US mortgage rates fall to twenty twenty four levels, fueling
22:29
Speaker 2: refinancing surge. So mortgages did see a decline in rates
22:34
Speaker 2: over the last three to six weeks, and so that
22:38
Speaker 2: has mortgage rates now again in the low sixes for
22:43
Speaker 2: thirty year fixed rate mortgages and in the high fives
22:49
Speaker 2: for adjustable rate ones. Your thoughts, Paul on you know
22:53
Speaker 2: kind of what we're gonna see as a result of this.
22:56
Speaker 4: I don't necessarily know that it's going to jolt the
22:59
Speaker 4: the housing market at spend a really week last couple
23:01
Speaker 4: of years for the housing market, but you are approaching
23:05
Speaker 4: at least that psychological hurdle of being below six percent
23:09
Speaker 4: and showing that five percent on there. Does that potentially
23:12
Speaker 4: allow for more buyers to have the confidence to go
23:15
Speaker 4: ahead and move forward with purchases. Perhaps, But I still
23:20
Speaker 4: think that there are bigger systematic issues with the housing
23:23
Speaker 4: market in general that unfortunately, you know, going from six'
23:27
Speaker 4: seven to six point one, FIVE i don't know if
23:29
Speaker 4: that's enough to do.
23:30
Speaker 2: It when you talk about those bigger systemic, issues are
23:32
Speaker 2: you talking what we're seeing as far as insurance, rates
23:35
Speaker 2: property taxes and those kinds of things are something.
23:37
Speaker 4: Else, yeah basically just how we've had increased inventory throughout the,
23:41
Speaker 4: country which is a positive obviously for buyers out, there
23:45
Speaker 4: but just hasn't been the. Demand and like you alluded
23:47
Speaker 4: to the areas that we're seeing the increased, Inventory florida's
23:51
Speaker 4: one to pick. On there just isn't the demand because
23:53
Speaker 4: of those home, rage insurance costs and other factors. There
23:58
Speaker 4: and then in just in general from a pricing, standpoint
24:01
Speaker 4: affordability has has been an issue over the last several,
24:04
Speaker 4: years AND i just don't see either of those things changing,
24:07
Speaker 4: necessarily particularly in The North Seas northeast. HERE i don't
24:11
Speaker 4: think you're gonna get enough inventory to bring down prices
24:14
Speaker 4: so substantially that it makes more.
24:16
Speaker 2: Buyers jump back, In, Tucker Do paul AND i have
24:18
Speaker 2: an outstanding bet on uh more skids?
24:20
Speaker 3: Rates?
24:21
Speaker 4: Yes we.
24:21
Speaker 3: Do uh, yeah hold, ON i thought we. DID i
24:25
Speaker 3: can't remember what the context, was or.
24:27
Speaker 4: You, know a range of thirty year fixed mortgages for
24:30
Speaker 4: twenty twenty.
24:30
Speaker 3: Five paul's plugged into. This, yeah, well because we covered,
24:33
Speaker 3: trouble we covered it a week or two. Ago paul
24:35
Speaker 3: knows he's, winning doesn't.
24:36
Speaker 4: He yesh, y we covered it a week or two,
24:39
Speaker 4: Ago mike AND.
24:39
Speaker 5: I so, Yeah paul had a low fixed at five
24:42
Speaker 5: point eight five high with seven point, one And chuck
24:45
Speaker 5: had a low of five point two high of seven point, eight.
24:49
Speaker 4: And mike was in there.
24:50
Speaker 5: Too mike doesn't.
24:50
Speaker 3: Matter so what does this? Mean how DO i?
24:52
Speaker 2: Win it's it's probably whoever's closest, on like when you
24:58
Speaker 2: take the high water mark and and combine.
25:00
Speaker 3: Them, Right So I'm i'm losing right, now, Correct.
25:05
Speaker 5: Yeah Because paul seemed very happy to be talking about.
25:09
Speaker 2: This all, Right, well given the things for, moving given
25:11
Speaker 2: the rates are moving down right, Now, JAY i really
25:13
Speaker 2: need a little help this uh this.
25:15
Speaker 3: Afternoon then then to get, that, UH i need five to.
25:18
Speaker 4: TWO i need to tie things. Up after My nvidia
25:20
Speaker 4: earnings prediction moving markets more than, that that was a big.
25:24
Speaker 3: One that was a big win for.
25:26
Speaker 2: Me SO i could use a w further proof that IN,
25:29
Speaker 2: uh when it comes to, markets there's no one that
25:32
Speaker 2: has a one track.
25:34
Speaker 3: Record.
25:35
Speaker 2: Folks if you have questions about what's going on in
25:38
Speaker 2: the economy right, now whether it's, housing whether it's the,
25:41
Speaker 2: markets anything, else the labor, market what's going on. There
25:45
Speaker 2: Armstrong Advisory group is going to be hosting two financial
25:48
Speaker 2: seminars this. Fall one is going to be at The Margaritaville,
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Speaker 2: At showcase Super lucks In Chestnut hill On october. Sixteenth
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Speaker 2: both times we're there's gonna be a live broadcast of
26:03
Speaker 2: The Financial exchange on site there and then a seminar
26:07
Speaker 2: afterwards talking about what's going on in THE us economy
26:11
Speaker 2: and chance to answer some of your questions as. Well,
26:15
Speaker 2: again that first event is going to be happening At
26:18
Speaker 2: Margaret Margaretevelt, Resort Cape cod On october. Ninth the second
26:22
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Speaker 1: Com the proceeding was paid for By Armstrong Advisory, group
26:49
Speaker 1: a registered investment. Advisor nothing in the ad or in
26:51
Speaker 1: Any armstrong guide a specific, financial, legal or tax advice
26:54
Speaker 1: consult your own, financial, tax and estate planning advisors before
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Speaker 1: making any investment. Decisions armstrong may contact offer investment advisory.
27:01
Speaker 1: Services why is.
27:03
Speaker 3: The tea silent in?
27:04
Speaker 4: MORTGAGE i have no, idea BUT i know you're here
27:08
Speaker 4: dying to get to.
27:09
Speaker 1: THIS i don't. Know It's.
27:12
Speaker 2: French mortgage Is. French the origin Is. French, yeah it
27:17
Speaker 2: means In. FRENCH i believe it's Old. FRENCH i think
27:21
Speaker 2: it comes from the term dead pledge and whatever it
27:23
Speaker 2: means In, french or however that is spelled in Old.
27:26
Speaker 4: French thank, You Ken.
27:27
Speaker 2: Jennings and so the more you, know that's why mortgage
27:31
Speaker 2: has A. T but no one says mortgage except for.
27:36
Speaker 3: Us you us.
27:40
Speaker 2: Why you should own some? Gold piece from The Wall Street.
27:43
Speaker 2: Journal so two things can be. True the first is
27:49
Speaker 2: that as a diversifier in a, portfolio there's a case
27:55
Speaker 2: to be made for gold and or other precious metals
27:58
Speaker 2: as a. Portion there's also a case to be made
28:02
Speaker 2: that if all you own is, gold it's not really
28:06
Speaker 2: a great, strategy since gold produces no, income no economic,
28:10
Speaker 2: value nor does it do anything to improve your. Life
28:14
Speaker 2: and it's also probably true that if you're taking your
28:17
Speaker 2: tips on when to buy gold from The Wall Street,
28:19
Speaker 2: journal that's probably not the best time to be doing,
28:23
Speaker 2: so because, well they're probably talking about it because it's
28:26
Speaker 2: done well, recently and gold tends to do well during
28:28
Speaker 2: very short periods of time and then go through periods
28:31
Speaker 2: of intense boredom for longer.
28:32
Speaker 4: Stretches, yes they do to be fairer to The Wall
28:35
Speaker 4: Street journal writer, here he does mention that it's doubled
28:39
Speaker 4: in the last few, Years so, Yeah.
28:40
Speaker 3: Gregori does a great job for.
28:41
Speaker 2: THEM i think the headline writer is the person WHO
28:43
Speaker 2: i have a bigger problem with who they don't tell
28:45
Speaker 2: you who writes the, headline, Right, yeah you know they
28:47
Speaker 2: don't tell you that person's name.
28:48
Speaker 4: Exactly but that's always been the general philosophy with the
28:53
Speaker 4: use of gold within a portfolio is it's A it's
28:56
Speaker 4: not correlated to what goes on in the stock, Market
28:59
Speaker 4: so having smaller percentage in it can help in times
29:03
Speaker 4: of you, know strife with the stock. Market but it
29:08
Speaker 4: is a case that is emphasized more when gold is
29:11
Speaker 4: doing well the last ten, years prior to the couple
29:15
Speaker 4: that we've had over the last Few if you look
29:17
Speaker 4: at THE s AND p five hundred returns to. Gold
29:20
Speaker 4: it was an absolute bludgeoning over that period of. Time
29:23
Speaker 4: so it's something that gets emphasized when things are a
29:26
Speaker 4: little sunnier on the gold.
29:27
Speaker 2: Front so in any, case, look gold IS i always
29:33
Speaker 2: come back to the fact investors love to treat gold
29:37
Speaker 2: the way they should treat. Stocks investors hold gold and they're, like,
29:42
Speaker 2: Oh i'm gonna own this gold, forever and generally it
29:45
Speaker 2: kind of keeps up with inflation but doesn't do like
29:47
Speaker 2: too much more than that because it doesn't earn. Anything
29:51
Speaker 2: and with, stocks people want to be, Like, Ooh i'm
29:53
Speaker 2: going to be in out And i'm gonna be a
29:55
Speaker 2: super trade and look at. ME i can go in
29:57
Speaker 2: and out and buy low and sell. High, NOPE i
30:00
Speaker 2: didn't do that.
30:00
Speaker 3: There. Sorry so.
30:03
Speaker 2: Ultimately i'm not saying that LIKE i have any idea
30:06
Speaker 2: exactly when to buy or sell gold, either but it
30:09
Speaker 2: typically makes its money in short like one or two year,
30:12
Speaker 2: stretches and then a lot of times either goes sideways
30:16
Speaker 2: for a decade or might even lose like fifty percent
30:18
Speaker 2: in a decade like the twenty. Tens so, generally if
30:23
Speaker 2: you will get the historical track, record gold is great
30:27
Speaker 2: during those crisis, periods but doesn't really do anything else,
30:29
Speaker 2: otherwise whereas stocks tend to do a lot else otherwise
30:34
Speaker 2: and obviously struggle in those short crisis. Periods this is
30:36
Speaker 2: why in a diversified portfolio with different kinds of assets and,
30:40
Speaker 2: things gold can help to provide some. Smoothing but you,
30:46
Speaker 2: know it's it's everything in, balance everything you know in,
30:49
Speaker 2: MODERATION i guess is the point THAT i try to
30:51
Speaker 2: make on this. Stuff quick break here and when we come,
30:55
Speaker 2: back let's do a little bit of stack.
30:56
Speaker 1: Roulette The Financial exchange is now available from eleven to
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32:07
Speaker 3: Today, paul what do you got for?
32:09
Speaker 4: Me for Stack, Roulette LimeWire has agreed to acquire Fire.
32:15
Speaker 4: Festival what could possibly go? Wrong? So, LimeWire for those who,
32:20
Speaker 4: forget was a company that you were able to download
32:25
Speaker 4: files a lot of it was similar To napster music
32:29
Speaker 4: files and and other video files out there that got
32:32
Speaker 4: shut down by court ruling in twenty. Ten but for
32:34
Speaker 4: many of us who grew up late nineties early two,
32:36
Speaker 4: thousands it was for those people who did down an
32:40
Speaker 4: easy way to download a lot of free, music but obviously.
32:43
Speaker 3: Chance of downloading a virus.
32:45
Speaker 4: Exactly it was a, difficult difficult dance to. Balance firefests
32:50
Speaker 4: for those who also may forget was subject of a
32:54
Speaker 4: popular documentary done By netflix a couple years, back Where
32:59
Speaker 4: billy McFarland had put together this fancy festival that promised
33:06
Speaker 4: models and musical stars and where did they do it
33:09
Speaker 4: was The bahamas that They they did it down in The.
33:12
Speaker 4: Bahamas he had put together these tremendous hype videos with
33:15
Speaker 4: all these celebrities and, influencers and then people spent thousands
33:19
Speaker 4: of dollars to go down to The, bahamas only to
33:21
Speaker 4: find out there was no, food no, Water.
33:24
Speaker 2: No you got A fema tent and a piece of
33:28
Speaker 2: bread With american cheese next to.
33:30
Speaker 4: It it was just an absolute. Calamity he was sentenced
33:33
Speaker 4: to six years in, prison convicted of. Fraud so now
33:37
Speaker 4: you Have LimeWire Acquiring Fire festival's. Brands So LimeWire was
33:44
Speaker 4: rebranded in twenty twenty two by Some austrian brothers that
33:48
Speaker 4: now apparently DOES nft. Services And i'm confused as to
33:53
Speaker 4: what this really means other than just two nostalgic names
33:56
Speaker 4: of companies gone wrong or events gone wrong over the
33:59
Speaker 4: last ten t fifteen. Years but it's in the. News
34:02
Speaker 4: so it.
34:03
Speaker 2: Feels like you know Those russian nesting dolls where you pull,
34:08
Speaker 2: one you open one, up and there's another, inside and
34:10
Speaker 2: then there's another inside and. Another it feels like that's
34:14
Speaker 2: what we're like doing here when it comes to just
34:17
Speaker 2: like questionable businesses with you, know not the best history
34:23
Speaker 2: and the potential for. Fraud, definitely it's, like, hey how
34:27
Speaker 2: do you make fire festival? Better mix it with? Crypto
34:31
Speaker 2: like it just it doesn't feel? Great And, tucker wasn't
34:38
Speaker 2: it correct me If i'm? Wrong Didn't billy McFarlane say
34:42
Speaker 2: that they were listing the Fire festival brand for sale On?
34:45
Speaker 3: eBay wasn't it?
34:46
Speaker 4: Such this is the?
34:47
Speaker 3: Sale?
34:48
Speaker 2: Right but like so why did why Did limeweer have
34:51
Speaker 2: to announce? This couldn't you just go on The eBay
34:53
Speaker 2: listing and see who?
34:54
Speaker 4: Won of course they want to announce, it SO i
34:56
Speaker 4: would talk about limemark because when's the last time you
34:58
Speaker 4: talked About.
34:58
Speaker 3: Limemar it's, true it's it's been a.
35:00
Speaker 4: Minute it's been a long.
35:01
Speaker 2: Time, yeah, yeah it's uh. Again i'll be, honest didn't
35:06
Speaker 2: even know they still. Existed BUT i guess.
35:09
Speaker 4: We won't keep you updated on this endeavor wherever it.
35:12
Speaker 3: Goes if it goes, wrong we. Will, yeah that's. True
35:14
Speaker 3: that that's.
35:15
Speaker 2: Wrong we will if it goes. Well, no, Okay like,
35:18
Speaker 2: great you had a concert in The. Bahamas, fine Like,
35:20
Speaker 2: YAHOO i didn't. Go i'm want to talk a little
35:24
Speaker 2: bit about this study from ePower that the median emergency
35:28
Speaker 2: savings For americans is five hundred. DOLLARS a third Of
35:31
Speaker 2: americans don't have an emergency savings, fund and twenty nine
35:34
Speaker 2: percent say they can't afford an unexpected expense over four hundred.
35:40
Speaker 2: DOLLARS a couple things THAT i take away from. This
35:44
Speaker 2: it's actually better THAN i thought it would. Be, really
35:48
Speaker 2: why if if we're saying that three out of Four,
35:53
Speaker 2: americans there's seven out of Ten americans can figure out
35:57
Speaker 2: how to come up with four hundred dollars on short,
35:59
Speaker 2: NOTICE i think that's pretty good given how many people
36:03
Speaker 2: are really, struggling you, know or saying that they're struggling
36:07
Speaker 2: economically right. NOW i think it's encouraging to me that
36:12
Speaker 2: fewer than thirty percent of people have trouble coming up with.
36:15
Speaker 4: That one in three have no emergency fund, savings thirty
36:18
Speaker 4: percent say they can't Afford.
36:20
Speaker 2: I'm guessing there's a few percentages that have like higher
36:23
Speaker 2: income but no emergency, fund, okay and it's just like
36:26
Speaker 2: all cut spending on something. Else so that's kind of
36:28
Speaker 2: my read on. It BUT i saw that too and was,
36:30
Speaker 2: like what does that?
36:32
Speaker 4: Mean, YEAH i thought overlap there five hundred is usually
36:36
Speaker 4: the number that is kind of rouse around my head
36:40
Speaker 4: is to a lot of people have difficulty coming up
36:43
Speaker 4: with that kind of. MONEY i would have guessed it's
36:45
Speaker 4: a higher percentage than twenty nine percent BECAUSE i often
36:48
Speaker 4: thought it was fifty percent Of. AMERICANS i would have.
36:51
Speaker 2: Thought it coached forty or. Fifty so, yeah, Like i'm
36:54
Speaker 2: not saying thirty. Percent i'm not saying it's good at,
36:56
Speaker 2: all but just from what i'd, heard But i'm, like,
36:58
Speaker 2: honestly if you look at the income distributions to be
37:01
Speaker 2: in like bottom thirty percentile by, INCOME i think you're
37:05
Speaker 2: somewhere under like twenty five twenty seven, thousand and so
37:10
Speaker 2: Again i'm kind of encouraged, That, like there aren't as
37:13
Speaker 2: many people with a lack of savings AS i thought there.
37:17
Speaker 3: Were and when you.
37:17
Speaker 2: Look get baby, boomers baby boomers saved a meeting of two,
37:22
Speaker 2: thousand which means that fifty percent of baby boomer households
37:26
Speaker 2: have two thousand or more set aside for an emergency,
37:28
Speaker 2: fund WHICH i think is pretty darn.
37:31
Speaker 4: GOOD i don't know where that's been, statistically but it
37:34
Speaker 4: seems like a GOOD i don't know.
37:35
Speaker 2: Either but it seems pretty good on that. Side so
37:39
Speaker 2: and obviously this is skewed down by Gen z who,
37:43
Speaker 2: look when you're in your, twenties, like let's be, honest
37:45
Speaker 2: you don't have an emergency fund because.
37:48
Speaker 3: You're not making very much.
37:49
Speaker 2: Money the rent is too damn, high and you're just
37:53
Speaker 2: doing what you. Can and generally a lot of the
37:57
Speaker 2: emergencies that do tend to happen happ and as you get,
38:00
Speaker 2: older either you, know having kids or health trouble and
38:02
Speaker 2: stuff like, that so the need for the same scale
38:05
Speaker 2: is not necessarily present at that age. Either let's take
38:09
Speaker 2: a quick break for the entire rest of the day
38:11
Speaker 2: and feeds at two o'clock.
38:13
Speaker 3: Today we'll tell you all about it. Tomorrow you better believe.
38:17
Speaker 2: It