Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 135 : Are These Player Rater Surprises Real?

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Ep. 135 : Are These Player Rater Surprises Real? · Cards & Categories

• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode one thirty five of
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Cards and Categories. I am My cool Ard and I
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: am joined by my very good friend Jeremy Brewer. We're
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: here to talk the latest round of injuries.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: You ready, I'm ready. I'm feel sore just looking at
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: the list, but I think I'm ready to roll through
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: this because it's not baseball season if everybody's not getting
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: hurt early in April.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know what demons that I dug up
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: bringing Kielan on the pod last week to talk about
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: injury strategy. But hopefully you listened to that pod last
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: week and got lots of different ways to be able
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: to attack all these injuries that we've got covering to
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: cover here, because it's up and down the entire league
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as well as I mean, we're only going to focus
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: on the big ones. And I'm looking at this list.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: It's about half a page long on this Google doc,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: and we're not even touching into someone like the lower
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: level pieces of news. I mean one lower level piece
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: of news just because I'm me and we got to
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: cover it. But before we even get into that, I'll
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: even be me some more and maybe even bringing up
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: the spirit of keeling again because we've got some fun
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: White Sox action. Let's maybe focus there because everything else
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: is going to be rather depressing in this news and
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: notes on date that let's get into some of these
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: new White Sox call ups. Last night we saw Noah
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Schultz debut. We are speaking right now on tax Day,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: April fifteenth, Wednesday evening, which did you get your taxes done?
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: How are you feeling?
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I got my taxes done way ahead and I completely
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: discoculated everything this year. But other than that, we are
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: good to go. So just don't auto me.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that is a good shout out to everybody out there.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Make sure you fix up those W nines, make them correct,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: to get their withholding together. And also if you got
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a big refund, that's not great. You just gave the
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: governor in a free loan for a year, so maybe
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: you want to update that W nine.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: But if you did, we have merchandise go to the
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: store of the show notes.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, good, good use of the of that money coming
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: back or by ball subscription too, that is also in
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the show notes. Either we'll go and help you the
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: the hats from us can help protect your face from
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: the sun, and I mean, there's new tools rolling out
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: on the subscription base that they've been tweaking, some reliever
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: round up stuff in terms of what JKJ and Rowdy
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: and Rudy pump out there every week. So there's more
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: tools on the way coming from Rasball. Your dollars help
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: support that, so check out the site for that. Let's
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: get back to the White Sox. Noah Schultz called up.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Debuted last night and I had a blast watching him
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: because he is a tall, tall man, and it's really
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: strange watching him work because when he's on the mound,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: your perspective isn't totally thrown off when you're looking at
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: like the you know, center field cam, but then whenever
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: it zooms out, you were just like, oh, man, that
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: is a large man on top of that mound. It
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: was an okay debut. He was shaking in the first
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: inning of the way that I think you would expect
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: for a guy who is debuting in front of like
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: five hundred friends and family. I think because he was
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: just from the Chicago burbs. But what did you think
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: about Noah Schultz overall? Because I was rather impressed the
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: way that he calmed down, And I think the frame
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: is there and it's just gonna be it won't be
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: a bumpy up and down rookie season. But I like
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: the long term out look of Schultz.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah I do. I mean, first of all, is the
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: tallest player of the majors right now. It feels like
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are just trying to like, you know,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: clone Chris Saiale from back in the day to a
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: degree with the lanky, tall lefty. But yeah, I mean
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  Speaker 2: I was only able to catch the first inning, so
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: maybe my uh excwed me a little bit because he's
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: he definitely was a little nervous out there, but you
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  Speaker 2: can tell the movements there, you can tell the overpowering
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: stuff is there. He's throwing that nineties and he looks
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: very comfortable even though you know there's some some nerves
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  Speaker 2: out there. So I agree with you it's gonna be
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  Speaker 2: an up and down year as he learns. But this
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  Speaker 2: guy really is the limit for no Schultz. I mean,
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: he he just has to locate a few pitches and
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  Speaker 2: there's no question that he's gonna be very difficult hit
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  Speaker 2: coming out of that arm slot, coming in more that
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: downward plane. It's gonna be tough for for players, and
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  Speaker 2: so I'm really excited about him. Is a guy I'm
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: really strongly investing in this year, probably not just being
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: on the White Sox being what's gonna be probably up
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: and down, but hey, if you're looking for strikeouts some
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: upside like that Suld, there's probably not a better option
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: right now in the waiver wire than Noah Schultz. So
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to see what he does. I do think
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: he has number one potential down the road. I don't
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: know that he captured that this year, and even if
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: he does, he's still in the White Sox, which so
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe three wins instead of two. But I
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: think there's a very very positive outlook for Noah Schultz. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the player you can kind of
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: map it against is Schultz is the left handed version
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  Speaker 2: of Jack and Missierowski from last year, where miss Erowski
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  Speaker 2: at the end of the day was sixty six innings
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  Speaker 2: with the four thirty sixty ARRA and a three sixty
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  Speaker 2: two fit but a few uneven outings, a couple of
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  Speaker 2: outings with double digit ks, and I think you're gonna
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: see the same thing from Schultz. But especially if you're
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: in a dynasty league, you're looking at what miss Erowski
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: is doing now this year in terms of really honing
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: in that control, and you can see where the ceiling
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: becomes sky high for Schultz. So lots of good things
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: in his debut. We also tonight are seeing the debut
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  Speaker 2: of Sam Antonacci, who was called up and we'll be
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: playing second base mostly for the White Sox, coming off
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: of a great WBC run with Italy, and was off
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  Speaker 2: to a hot start at Triple A before the call
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  Speaker 2: up to three thirteen, five hundred four to seventy nine
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  Speaker 2: slash line over sixty seven plate appearances, two homers, five
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  Speaker 2: Stonlee bases a twenty two percent walk rate against just
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: a twelve k rate.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: It looks like there's a lot of tools there for
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Antonachi and people really got to see those in action
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: during the WBC. He cranked a big time homer that
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I remember in the tournament and just looks fantastic at
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  Speaker 1: second base two And so, what do you think in
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: what are you doing with Antonachi? Because is it an
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: issue where you're not totally sure that the profile is
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: ready and the size is ready or is this a
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: plug and play second basement for you? Yeah, I'm not
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: gonna say he's a plug and play second basement. I
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: think he's definitely got some maturity to do. But the
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: profile is really interesting. I think it's more of a
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: middle infield speed play at this point. I saw a
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: comp the other day of Luke Kishel, and I'm sitting
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: here going I think it's a faster, less powerful Lukeishel.
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  Speaker 1: I think as a way to look at because I
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: think Heshall's got a little more pop in the bat.
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  Speaker 1: I don't see Antonacchi really more than in the double
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  Speaker 1: digits of Homer's. But I could also see him stealing
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  Speaker 1: thirty five bases, so good on base presence, I think
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  Speaker 1: he's gonna be, you know, on the White Sox to stay.
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  Speaker 1: Like I said, I think he's a reasonable middle infield,
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  Speaker 1: you know, gamble, but I think I wouldn't want him
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  Speaker 1: as my second base overall, just for the power. I
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna be there this year, and it's
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: gonna take a little time for that to develop, if it,
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  Speaker 1: if ever does.
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  Speaker 2: I mean he is a smaller guy. He's five eleven,
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  Speaker 2: one ninety three, and that's the Fangrafts version. I'm not
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: sure what the official version is now that we actually
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: have to have everything for the strike zone. He might
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: be like five to three for all I know, and
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: those measurements now I'm can but I think he's worth
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  Speaker 2: worth a pickup if you need that help in a
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: deeper middle endfield type league.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean I think you can see that
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: that power is a little bit more lacking for Antonachi.
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  Speaker 1: He does on cork like big swings every once in
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  Speaker 1: a while, and that's when he'll run into Homer's but
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: you'll definitely be chasing him for more of a speed
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: at batting average option. Again, like you said, with the
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  Speaker 1: White Sox, it's not going to be a high falutant
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: offense because because that's how they're losing these games. The
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: pitching's beIN solid, but the offense has still been lackluster
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  Speaker 1: if as the young players put it all together. But yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I think he's a very worthy am I second base
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  Speaker 1: option in pretty much every league that's got it, especially
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: stolen base category. Okay, well you ready for the drudge.
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  Speaker 1: Now you're ready to get into all these injuries. No,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: because I just look at the names on here, is
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: like my fantasy roster, like the first like a half
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: so uh maybe maybe not but yeah, let's let's get
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: into it. There's there's some big names that are gonna
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: be out for a little while. Yeah, I will say that,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: like one thing that I've liked about this list is that, like,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's one name that you dealt to me
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: in our CBS league. But my CBS League team is struggling,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: and I most of these land mines I missed, so uh,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: time for me to catch up in those standings, because
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: I'm surely needed in that league. As you know. Let's
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: start with some of the biggest ones. First, we've got
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: outfielder for the Brewers, Christian Yelich, going down. It sounds
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: like it's going to be roughly a month. Initially it
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: was diagnosed as a hamstring pole, but they've since updated
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: to a groin pole. The thing here with the Brewers, too, is,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: I mean the NL Central is turning into a bit
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: of a tight race, and not really between the Cubs
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: and the Brewers. It's just that the Reds, the Cardinals,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: and the Pirates are kind of upstart teams that especially
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, I mean, they're putting together some good baseball.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: The Pirates have looked hot, the Reds have I mean
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: It's been a very seesaw sort of season for them
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: in terms of the ups and downs, but they keep
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: rattling off wins and have a good young core. So
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the Brewers are gonna really need Christian Yelich back because
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: he anchors that overall lineup, and especially at this point,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: you know you're looking, They're down Yelich and Jackson Turio,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: so things are going to be hurting in terms of
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the peripherals of this offense. You know, they've already moved
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: South Frale into the lead off spot, that gout Bryce
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Terrain in the three hole, and then Jake Bowers as
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: everyone predicted, right there in that five hole. And so
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: what are you doing here with Christian Yellis because like,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: this is a guy who has battled significant injuries over
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the years. The batter ball metrics have also started kind
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: of backing up, as you know, the bell curve of
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the typical baseball aging curve is kicked in, and he
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: started to put up more ground balls the way that
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: he did earlier in his career. So I mean it's
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: starting to get fringy, honestly a little bit in twelve
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: teamers because of some of the skilled degradation. Does this
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: injury kind of maybe make you think about him being
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: droppable in some of those shallower leagues, just because I mean,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: we're about to rattle through about fifteen more injuries, so
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: you've got a lot of injuries to deal with. And
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: how concerned are you with this groin injury for Yellich.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm gonna say I'm not terribly concerned with
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: the injury itself for Yellish because Yellows has been the
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: guy with consistent back injuries throughout his career. If this
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: is a back injury, I'd be concerned. It is a
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: lower body injury, So I'm not as concerned with it
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the impact on his overall skill level. That said, he
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: was a guy who's already fading coming into the year.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: To your point, the skilled degradation. He did outperform what
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: expectations were last year with the twenty nine homer season,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: and as we already expected some of that to come back,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: And so I am I think in shallower leagues, I'm
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: I want to put them in my eye l I
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: want to keep him around. But if I'm getting that
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: crunch and you know, a three out thuller league, Yes,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: you absolutely can be at the point where're gonna say, hey,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: i'm gonna drop yellowch and and see what happens that
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: You're probably not gonna fully regret that. Yet. He might
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: come back and might be worth starting in that league again,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: but I'm not certain that he's going to be a
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: huge difference maker deeper leagues. I think you have to
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: try to hold on to him because he still is
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Christian Yellis. She's still gonna a decent batting average, score,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: decent amount of runs like he's. He still fills up
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: the stat sheets. But I don't think we should have
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: been thinking about a thirty to fifteen season come into
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: the year. Is probably more of a twenty ten with
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: a decent average and good counting stats. But I think
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: that's still who he is is. Just you're gonna be
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: a month month and a half without him. So if
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: you get the rush crunch shell league, I'm fine with it.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: But I still think there's enough value here that in
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: a deeper league you want to try to hold onto that.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Just don't get your hopes up that was last year,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: because if that's what you're expecting, then you're sorely gonna
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: be disappointed.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. All Right, the next one we've got,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: I know this one hits a home for you. Definitely
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: hurts Brent Brooker going down from the Sacramento Athletics. It
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: was a tough line before he went down in terms
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: of a one five, two ninety three slash line. But
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: you're so early in the season two, Like you just
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: look at the matchups he had. He had at Toronto,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: at Atlanta, finally started hitting when he got at home
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: against that crummy Houston Astros starting staff, and then went
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: to New York where he blew out this oblique on
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: his swing. It was pretty obvious right off the bat.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: This is a pretty concerning injury because it's probably going
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: to keep him out about six weeks is usually what
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: you're looking at. And then it's some thing where it
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: happened so early in the season it's so significant. Usually
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: these types of obliques just kind of keep lingering throughout
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: the season. I think you see it a lot in
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you know, just soft tissue injuries in general. Just think
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: about like how many times we've dealt with Corey seekers hamstrings.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: It kind of reminds me of that when you're talking
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: about obliques on anybody, and especially when you're looking at
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: somebody who swings as hard as Brent Rooker, where you
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: need every bit of bounce of that strength to be
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: able to hit the ball, and also like is pushing
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: his body to the max on every swing. It is
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: pretty concerning. So what are you doing in leagues where
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: you have Brent Rooker, Because, like I said, this could
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: be a lingering thing. We could see issues for the
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: rest of twenty twenty six, but then again, all of
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: the bat ball data in terms of the actual like
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: barrel rate and the bat speed was still right around
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: where Brent Rooker has always been. He was waiting for
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the BABITP gods to come back and bless him.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think he's one of those where because
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: of the fact that he started slow, you're kind of stuck.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: I still really like Brett Rooker, but he's not in
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: a spot where you can try to move him or
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: something like that. You also can't drop him because you
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: invest a decent pick in him. And again small sampilizers
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: on twelve games. I'm not concerned like there's a big
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: skill degradation or something like that. He had some tough matchups,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: but his hard hit rates almost a high as it
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: has been through his career. His barrel rate still ninety
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: five percentile, so still some really good things there. He's
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: the strikeouts have jumped up again. Small sample size, I'm
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: not too concerned about that. But if you want to
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: try to like sneak him around or something like that,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: move him around, maybe this is a chance to buy
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: on Brett Rooker and convince somebody that he's fallen off.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: He's also hurt, and you're gonna invest for the long term.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: But if you have him, you're kind of stuck holding them.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: This is not a guy, even in a shallow league,
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: that that I see any re to be cutting loose.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: He is the kind of guy that if you have
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: him and Yelich Yellish, can go hold on to Rooker.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: And unfortunately, at least one league, I have both of them,
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: and I don't know he make that full call because
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: it's a deeper league, but I think Rooker is definitely
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: the guy that I'm holding on to in that kind
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: of comparison.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's get into a picture injury. Now. We've got
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Nick Pivetta from the Padres going down with what they're
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: deeming to be elbow stiffness. They've put him on the
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: IL and actually, I'm looking now that you updated it too.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: He he's got to write flexer strain. He also missed
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: time in spring training with a dead arm. We talked
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: last week with Keelan in terms of how these things
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: shape up to become Tommy John surgeries. You see l
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: surgeries pretty fast, and this pattern hereveted for Paveta looks
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: that way. You do. Part of it too, is I
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: do think that the Padres need him to go to
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the rest and rehab route because they are in dire
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: straight in terms of what that rotation looks like, and
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: have invested a decent amount of change in Nick Pavetta
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: and are just really hanging on by the skin of
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: their teeth to try to keep this core intact for
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: another kind of playoff run or two out of Bogarts
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: and Machado and Tatis, And so I think it behooves
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the Padres to try to do rest and rehab with
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Nick Povetta. But this is looking no bueno. And that
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: the way that I almost kind of see the next
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: steps coming here for Nick Pavetta are he works his
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: way back. Something either goes wrong when he's ramping back up,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: and he finally gets shut down and gets the Tommy
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: John surgery or comes back to the mound. The stuff
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: looks like garbage and they've got to shut him down again. Anyway,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Am I being too negative here in Nick Pivetta or
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: do you think that's where this has had.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: A I mean, I'm always the more forgiving of the
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: two of us on picture injuries. So I'm a little
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: willing to did you give me a second? Give you
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: a second. I'm willing to see what's going on here.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: But I've also never bought Nick Pavetta in general since
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: and so this is the same I think conversation. I
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: might have sold him in the off season. If not,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: I should have still a guy who's only had one
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: season with an ERA under four, and so we're looking
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: at a guy who has a four or five ERA
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: right now. Yeah. I get less season was better. I
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: get the huge strikeount guys as a crazy clip already,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: But you got this injury concern, and it's Nick Pavetta.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: I'm not willing to invest in him now. You're kind
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: of stuck until you actually see what happens. Because people
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: are gonna pay pennies on the dollar. But to your point,
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: I you know, it seems like bad news. You know,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: you don't like any fatigue notes, you don't like any
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: inflammation notes or anything like that. In the elbow when
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: we took through out mid game is always always a
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: bad news. So I can't even endorse, uh, put Vetta
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: on a normal healthy basis. I'm not gonna adorse him
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: this current situation.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it does not look encouraging at all. That like,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: even if it is a flex restrainer, now maybe it
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: turns into the flexer need surgery. We've been starting to
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: see that more and more as opposed to being outright
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the UDL. So I if you've got any way to
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: cash in pennies on the dollar for Nick Povetta, I
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: think I take them at this point because it looks
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: really really ominous at this point. All right, now, we've
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: got a few teams where you want to talk about ominous,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: and these are some extremely ominous situations as we've got
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: some would have been contenders. I think that are really
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: really up the creek in terms of injury. So if
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: you think that your fantasy team is in bad shape,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I mean just look at the Houston astros right now,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: if you go to the roster resource page and you
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: scan through it, you might actually think that the injured
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: list portion was like their Triple A squad. You've got
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: a myriad of players scattered all across that injured list.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: So last week we covered the Hunter Brown injury, which
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I was looking at a piece on VP today where
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: they were Actually it was outlining the way that overall
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: velocities kind of have fluctuated. You know, we used to
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: have the axiom that you would start the spring a
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: little bit lower than you would end up at the
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: end of the year and add a tick or two
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: over the year. And there was a really good piece
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: from Bradley Woodrum about like, actually that's kind of disappeared.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: There still is like ticks that happened, but they're much
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: more they're much less significant. And on top of it,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: players just kind of come into spring training in much
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: better shape and ramp up and get into the season,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: and it say that their peak velocity at a much more,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: much higher clip than they used to in the past.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Hunter Brown is actually on the list of guys who
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: had dropped throughout twenty twenty five, and some of it
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: was conscious that, like there was a pitch mixed change,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: but when you kind of add in the shoulder injury
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: now that like they are also looking kind of rough
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: there front of Brown Astros also this week though places
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Jeremy Pina, Tatsuya and My Jake Myers and Christian Xavier
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: all in the aisle. This team is now seven and eleven.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: They have a rotation right the foreman rotation with Mike
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: Burrows is your number one, followed by Colton Gordon, Spencer
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Arraghatty and Lance mcculler's junior. You know, Lance mcculler's junior,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the number one bastion of health that I think of
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: in starting pitching nowadays. On top of it, you've also
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: got Taylor Tremmel being called into center field action for them,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: So it's like a compounding effect that if you have
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: any Astros players, especially pitchers, like things were already getting
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: a rough, and now the center fielder behind him, behind
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: your pitcher is also pretty bad. So what are your
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: thoughts here with the Astros, because like we're also just
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: seeing the bottom half of that lineup is starting to
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: get pretty tough, I mean, thankfully for them. Joe low
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Berfido has shown some signs of life. But jan your
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Diaz has backed up. Taylor Tremmell is kind of your
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: typical Quada type guy at this point, and you're missing
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Jeremy Pina. Jeremy Pinia is probably going to be out
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: a monthish or so, I would say with this hamstring injury. Tasuimai,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: who knows. At this point they were calling it dead
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: arm fatigue. But there's also been reports about like he's
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: on his third interpretereur already, he's extremely homesick. When you're
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: reading through the comments and stuff that, like it has
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: not been a great job of the Astros kind of
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: making sure that he was set up for success here
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: in America. What are you doing with some of these players?
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: And I mean, is it time for the Astros to
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: maybe tear this all back down again?
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean we were already kind of trending in
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: that direction for the Astros, Like you could just feel
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: that things weren't quite what they were gonna be or
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: what they've wanted to be. And now with all the injuries,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: especially on the pitching side, it's it's worrisome, Like I
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: don't see a way that they kind of overcome this.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: Because your point they're number one is a guy that
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: in my mind is number four and that that's and
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: the rest of the team is fives or worse, and
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: you're you're gonna struggle with that. The defense isn't gonna
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: be great. I mean, the only guy that maybe benefits
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: and this is like Izac Pardi's or a joey little
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: perfed or something like that, that's actually gonna get a
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: little more plain time because this is a team we
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: were worried about playing time going into the season, uh,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: because they just had so many guys on that infield
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: and they just they can't stay healthy. And I'm not
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: sure if it's a bug that's hit the team, if
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: the training staff took the day off, like, I'm not
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: sure what it is, but I do think they're the
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: astros are getting old fast, and that's it's becoming very
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: apparent that they're gonna have to do something drastic and
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be very very hard for them to do
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: that because they've got contracts they can't move, and they've
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: got young guys that need a place to play to
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: prove themselves, and so they've they've got to make a decision.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know that they will. I think they're gonna
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: wait for everybody to get healthy and see if they
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: can take a shot at it. But it's gonna be
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be to year in Houston.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so. And it'll be interesting to see
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: what they do at the deadline because it's nuts that
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: they took on this car's career contract from Minnesota, and
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: I mean they've got a bunch of decisions to start
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: making in terms of, you know, what are they going
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: to do long term with Jurdan Alvarez. I mean it's
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: not he's not for agent until after the twenty twenty
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: eight season, but they get a crazy good offer at
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: this deadline to be able to read. It's a terrible
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: minor league system too, so like they need a lot
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: of help. So it's gonna be a lot of tough
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: questions I think in Houston. Just something to keep in
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: mind as you're rostering other astros and stuff that or
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: if you're like hanging on to Josh Hater, maybe there
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: aren't that many saves that are coming in the back
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: half of the season. When Hater finally gets back onto
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: the mound. The other team that is just in dire
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: dire straits is the Toronto Blue Jays. We've covered it
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: a few times, but they've added even more injuries now
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: that George Springer went down with a broken toe and
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: to help out, the Blue Jays are in such dire
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: straits that they've called upon Eloy Jimenez and they traded
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: for Lenine Sosa, so both of those players are now
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: on the active roster. Eloy Jimenez is the everyday d
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: H right now. Lenin Sosa moves into a backup utility
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: role as he's gonna, you know, play behind Okamoto and
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Clement there in Toronto, another team that is just extremely
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: banged up, not as much as the Astros. It's a
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: little bit more limited list, but the star power is
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: certainly there. Let's focus here on Springer though, because by
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: everything I've been reading, it might be an injury that
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: he might be able to return from in a couple
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: of weeks. And we've seen other players do that where
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: they come back pretty quickly from fractured toes because they
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: can get inserts into their shoes and kind of use
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: cortizone to be able to work their way and manage
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the pain and still get on the field and be
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: relatively productive. But this is a guy who you also
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: probably drafted just for the tiny bit of speed, you know,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Like it wasn't a ton, but those fifteen stolen bases
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: sure did help, especially when they're coming with twenty five
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: plus homers, as they have very often for George Springer.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: So what are you thinking about this toe for Springer?
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Is it a death knell to his speed? And is
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: it also just a death knell maybe to him being
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: a useful fantasy player because he was highly drafted after
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: coming off of a monster season last year.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he had a monster season, but he
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: also had a lucky season, and so again this is
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: the guy we should have expected to have aggression. I
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: don't think folks drafted in that way. I think they
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: drafted the thirty six year old like he was going
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: to repeat a thirty homer and nearly twenty seal three
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: or nine season like the stake one there.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: I will say that even when you punched in just
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: like his regular projections, which were like twenty five, fifteen,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: two fifty average, like it kicked out a pretty high
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: value usually, and so I found in drafts he would
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: fall still and like he was being of value on
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: the board where I think I've only got one place
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: where I'm rostering him, and it might just be in
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: the RAS Ball Perts League for the RCL, just because
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: he kept falling.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean, I I'm concerned with this injury
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: because you know, you wanted that speed from him, you
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: wanted the runs from him. And if he's not gonna
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: be as nimble as he should be and they're gonna
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: give him more rest, stay you know, quasi healthy. I
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: think that steel number might struggle to make double digits
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: this year. I think that power is it. I mean,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: it's I guess it's a toe injury, but it's a
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: lower body. It's it's pain when you're stepping and doing
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: things like it's not gonna be comfortable. I think we're
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: he might struggle to get to twenty homers. And so
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: now you're talking about a guy that you know, best
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: case is what like eighteen nine, and let's be honest,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: the batting average is probably about two fifty two sixty average.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: Like I'm concerned, and the lineup around him is falling
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: like flies. So it's it's it's concerning.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: You throw the age factor and I'm I'm I'm willing to.
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping that he gets back quickly. It has a
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: hot week, and I'm moving him like that's That's kind
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: of the approach that I'm taking.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: I'm also in just in terms of reading the tea
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: leaves of what you said, it sounds like maybe even
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: droppable more so than Yellis, especially just given all the parameters.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say that's probably fair. I would want
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: to give it a little time to see, you know,
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: the the recovery timetable, what they say. But I'm concerned
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: that it's actually almost worse that he comes back and
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: then he's giving diminished production. That's almost worse than the
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: guy that's just fully out.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that makes sense. Okay, let's move on
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: to another team that is going through it. We've got
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: the five hundred and nine to nine Baltimore Orioles right now,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: who I mean, that's kind of nuts that they're in
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the best shape standings wise that the three teams we've
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: talked about so far. Because also a page where it
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: looks like an entire triple A roster of actual injured players,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: fewer starters. You only got the ones off villain who
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: we discussed last week, lots of relievers and almost a
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: full lineup. At this point, we're getting we're closing in
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: because they added their catcher, their backstop ADLEI Rushman going
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: on the el with a left ankle issue. This is
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: I think, just another nail in the coffin for Adley
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Rushman that like he's getting older fast, And this is
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: also not exactly an easy injury for a catcher to
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: come up to come back from, I think because you're
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: using your lower half so often. And it was also
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: just a bit of an ominous kind of ankle inflammation
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: injury where when they start just using terms where they
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: don't specifically say sprains and strains and stuff like that,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: I don't like it because it just it screams to me,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: what are we covering up? And it kind of gets
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: into like a little bit of like the hockey injury
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: paradigm where they're always just like upper body, lower body,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if that's where Baseball's trying to
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: go or if there actually is something like more intense
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: about this injury. I guess we'll find out. We also
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: have Ryan Mountcastle go down with a fractured foot that
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: he suffered just like running to second base. If you
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: find the clip out there is it's I mean, it's
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: hard not to laugh at it, but I mean he
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: did injure himself. But I mean another last season from
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Ryan Mountcastle, I think coming up because of that, and
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard for him to find the lineup space.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: They also added Christian and Karnassio on strand from the Reds,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: so he's down in triple A. We'll see if he
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: ever gets a shot or if he gets kind of
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: slotted behind all the other corner guys. The one person
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: I do want to call out is that what this
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: actually is all done is it's really cleared the way
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: for Samuel Pisiol, who actually has popped two homer since
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Adley Richman went on the IL. The numbers for Basio
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: are pretty middling right now, but the bat speed looks good,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the barrel rate looks good, the babip is just down,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: and I think, especially as things start heating up in Baltimore,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: we're gonna start seeing a plethora of home runs out
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: of Samuel Pasio. So what do you think here about
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Besio's chances going forward? You're moving him up in list
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: anywhere and then what about I think, especially at Adley Rechmand,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: any hope for him maybe for the rest of the season.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think Bisio does start to move
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: up in the list. This, this guarantees playing time when
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: he was pretty much full time before this, and this
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: maybe give us more options for guys like Dylan Bieber's,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: Kobe Mayo, guys like that. But yeah, I think Bessio's
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: gonna looks really good here. I think Adley's a guy
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: that he's doing better. He looked a little healthier this season.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: I'm a little concerned as you as well, not just
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: the vagueness of the injury, the vagueness of how it happened,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Like I just don't understand what it wasn't like an
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: in game injury. It's just like, hey, he scratched, he's hurt,
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: got some ankle issues, And again, maybe it's just a
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: slight thing. So I think this is when you definitely
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: have to wait for more information to come out to
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: understand what's truly happening, because this also could be the
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: fact that you got a good another good young catcher.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: Give him a run. Adley's dealing with a little something.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: We're gonna give him rest early in the season. He's
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: actually looked a little better to play. Let's make sure
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: he's healthy. So I don't want to overreact on Adelaide
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: at this point, So I'm gonna kind of leave him
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: as is until we get a little bit more information.
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna get that bumped to the SiO because
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: they'll put him in clean up. They're gonna keep him
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: in the lineup every day, and he's looking good. To
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: your point, he's just been a little unlucky at this point.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: Otherwise we'll be talking about him a heck a lot more.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I totally agree. Okay, Well, I mean
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: on the flip side of Cesking dfad by the Reds
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: and shipped out of town. The Reds also sent Noelvie
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Marte back to Triple A, which I figured, I bring
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: this up so that you could take a little bit
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: of your victory lap because he was your main cell
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: for the Reds. And I also did not understand his
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: draft price at all because it was rough out the
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: gate that I think the true kind of Noelvie Marte
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: showed his head pretty rapidly within the eleven games for
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: the Reds. Also was just pigeonhole out and right field,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: where he is not a great outfielder that like think
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: that helps the overall confidence for him. It was a
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: one thirty eight one ninety four, one thirty eight slash
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: line that's a negative eight WRC plus and his eleven games.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: But I was always confounded because I mean, he was
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: just about I mean, he wasn't this bad in the
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: in the second half of last year, but I mean
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: in the last two months it was a two forty six,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: two seventy five, four fifteen slash line with a twenty
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: eight percent strikeout rate and seven bombs in two hundred
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: and four played appearances. Wou actually like booie the entire
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: line for him last year. It felt like and I
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: remember this because when I was doing the waiver wires
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: for rasball last year, it came up like when he
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: had this game, and like people were just like noelv Marte,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: noelv Marte, NEUELVI Marte, and they couldn't get over the
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: fact that he had. On April twentieth last year, he
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: put up a three homer seven rbi uh just laugher
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: against the Orioles, in which some of that production came
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: off of position player pitchers too, so like it's cut
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: his entire line for the entire season. And so I
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: think we're seeing the real Noelvie Marte here in terms
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: of I just don't know if he's got a great
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: plate approach. He doesn't really have a place to play
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: in the field, and he just looks more of like
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: a bench utility back to me long term than anything else.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: So is that where you're at with Marte or is
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: there a glimmer of hope that you think he can
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: go down to triple A and figure something out.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Now I'm right there with you. I mean, this is
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: a guy that's had off the field troubles as well,
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: and you know, so he doesn't necessarily been endeared to
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: the Cincinnati leadership, and so you know, there's no harm,
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: no foul sitting them down here. He's looked atrocious, have
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: a plate he's you know, if you want to look
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: at a stack cast that is basically doesn't have lines
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: on it because it's so bad, that's no Velleley Martes.
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: And he was basically bottom of the barrel last year
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: from a stack cast perspective. It's even worse this year.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: Like the quality of contact the barrels. It's just it's
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: just not there and he is not making good contact.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Your point, He had a good game last year that
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: kind of spoke some of this stuff up. He was
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: in a very fair ballpark and he kind of looked
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: into a few of these homers that just kind of
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: squee screeched out of that of that ballpark, and so
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: it made things looked a little bit better than it was.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: And at the end of the day, Marte has a
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: lot of maturation to do, and I just it feels
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: like he's not dedicating himself at the end of the
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: day to make the changes he needs to make when
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: I feel like that's an unfortunate part of the game
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: that these young players have to adjust and I don't
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: think Marte has. And maybe there's a wake up call coming.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: I just don't see it. I don't see it. I
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: think the Reds have better players they did to get
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: playing time too.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah. He also just kind of strikes me as like
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: what we call now like a second division starter, where
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: this is a guy who would start on like the
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: Angels and the Rockies and kind of these teams that
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: just need to roll out dudes with playing time and
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: that's when Marte might become a little bit interesting. But
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: on a team like the Reds, where like we said,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: they're right in the thick of this NL Central, they're
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: right in the thick of this n All wildcard race,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: they cannot afford to give up any of those edges
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: with a player like Noelvly Marte. So I wouldn't be
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: surprised if we find him land somewhere else at the deadline.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: But still, you got to kind of keep in mind
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: all these approach issues that it's kind of a matchup
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: based streamer I think for me going forward, mostly just
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: because of the third base outfield, it just kind of
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: gives you a little bit of flexibility to plug in
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: spots in a deep league. Okay, well I did. I
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: forgot to preview what we're going to talk about on
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: the main part of the pod. Leave it to me
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: to bury that until forty minutes in, because this guy
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: might have been up for consideration for it. Parker Meadows
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: going on the IL now with a broken arm and
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: a concussion after a nasty collision with Riley Green. I mean,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: he wasn't quite like productive enough to probably get into
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: our discussion of what we're gonna do for our main
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: part is, you know, talk about some players that are
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: off to extremely hot starts, have great dollar values right
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: now in our player Raider at Rasball, and we're just
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: going to discuss it whether or not we believe in
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: them being able to produce at not their upper super
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: level that they're doing right now, but can you actually
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: count on them to provide solid production for you in
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: the fantasy realm for the rest of the season. Like
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: I said, Parker Metals probably would have not made the
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: full discussion, but I think he would have been consideration
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: because he was playing great center field for the Tigers.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Playing every day was going to be a sneaky kind
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: of like thirty stolen base speed option as well as
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: like just he was the type of player where you've
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: really wanted to see him get a large swath of
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: playing time to try to see if he could develop
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: himself at the plate and just if he could put
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: together a little bit of a played approach with that
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: thirty stolen base speed and that defense that becomes a
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: solid fantasy outfielder right there.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: So, was there.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Something in the Parker Metal's profile coming before this injury
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: that you not agreeing with me there, or is this
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: a situation where hey actually in a super deep league
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: and people might not be looking for Parker Meadows. I
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: might do an il stash, especially if you're looking for
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: a late season speed.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I don't think I'm quite there as
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: far as an il stash, because unfortunately this has been
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: Parker Medo's mo. Like, I give this a freak injury,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: but like it's a year after year after year he
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: just cannot stay on the field and stay healthy. Because
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: I do think there's a lot there, Like he's a
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: guy that could see like back into ten or twelve homers,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: he could steal thirty bases, He's got the speed to
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: keep the average in the two thirty two sixties, So
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: there's a lot there as like a fourth or fifth
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: outfielder that gives you value. I just can't see him
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: stay on the field. And maybe that's because he plays hard.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: He does all these things, which is great, but it's
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: really unfortunate because it feels like it has stunted his
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: growth as a hitter. So he just hasn't be able
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: to face enough major league pitching. So I'm still an
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: interested in dynasty league things like that I'm probably not
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: going out trying to acquire him at this point. I'm
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: goin to the guys, said, hey, somebody cuts bait, and
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: I got a kind of open spot in a roster.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: I'll pick him up and cut him later if I
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: need to, But I'm not jumping up and down for
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Parker Meto's at this point.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: All right. Well, next an injury we have is the
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: one that I hinted at in terms of our CBS league,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: because you dealt this dude to me and he got
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: injured like mid deal that like we couldn't do anything
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: about it. And I was already hard up for a
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: catcher because I had Alejandro Kirk and it's a weekly league.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I took a zero at catcher with Alejandro Kirk, and
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: then I did again this week because Gabriel Moreno went
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: on the il with Originally, they were like really downplaying it.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: They're like, Oh, he's got a stiff back and he'll
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: be back. It's not a big deal. Now it's an
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: oblique strain. It's out for six to eight weeks probably,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Like this is a pretty big injury for for Gabrielle Moreno.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: Who I mean, it was really starting to come together.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Like last year it was starting to come together, and
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: this year he was out the gate hot again with
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: a two seventy five three thirty three four hundred slash line.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, anytime you're getting like a two seventy five
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: three hundred plus four hundred plus slash line now of
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: a catcher, that is a big win. So he looked
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: like it was going to be a solid play for catcher.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Now he's kind of in the bucket with Brent Rooker
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: where there's a lot of concerns I think with even
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: the long term twenty twenty six impact of Gabrielle Moreno,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: as this is the type of injury that can linger.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: They called up Adrian Delcastillo to handle the backstop duties
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: while Moreno is out. Delcastio is somebody who we've been
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: interested in the past, but we haven't talked about in
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: a while. Slotted right in as the cleanup hitter for
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: the d Backs. It's a pretty solid team and it's
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: a pretty solid ballpark. So interest in Delcasto now.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I actually do have some interest in
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: del cast too. He might end up in a little
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: bit of a platoon situation, but you should be on
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: the strong side with James mcam But your points right,
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: He's in a good lineup, and this is the guy
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: has sold some major power in the minor leagues. And
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: if you're in a two catcher league, like I feel
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: like pass catcher like twenty is getting really thin, and
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: that's where you have an issue in our league, where
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: like it's just got real real hard to find a
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: guy that was gonna play every day and give you
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: any any value. And I think del Castillo can, Like
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: I is he gonna set the world on fire? No,
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: but I actually kind of excited to see him get
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: like a month or two full run at this. And
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: this is a guy that my back into a handful
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: of homers here, get a good matchup, and you know
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: that that ballpark, the ball can fly, you know, especially
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: earlier in the year. So I'm excited. I actually would
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: love to see what del Castillo can do here.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, there you go. We got a couple
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: of endorsements for Adrian del Castillo, who will probably be
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: my catcher next week in that CBS league and also
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: go in the IL. I'm just trying to see how
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: many weeks I can keep it going. Just taking a
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: fat zero at catcher.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: So I'm just telling you now, I'm gonna my fave
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: dollars in that league just to bid up del Castillo.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I've just I've been really scared that, like when I've
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: been going back to the wire for catchers, I'm actually
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: I'm henna like put money on some of these just
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: absolute like dogs, because I'm scared that somebody's gonna block me.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know who would ever do such a thing
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: in a league. No, I can't think of any or
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: any that are listening. And so we've got one more injury.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Ryce Lewis down with the knees strain. He almost made
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: it to April fifteenth. Nice try, Royce Lewis. We saw
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: this all come in any interest here at all, like
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: just period flat out or is it just like too
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: much to even try to get anything out of when
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: he's on the field.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: It's almost hilarious at this point in time, like Royce
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: Lewis cannot physically stay on the field when he's playing.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: He's a pretty good player, but he literally can't stay
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: on the field. It's not even one of those were
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: like like a mic strout situation, Like, man, I hopefully
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: I can get one twenty, maybe one thirty, and then
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: I'll patch the rest of the season. Like Royce Lewis
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: just like ticking time bomb, Like I'm just it's gonna happen.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: He's it's gonna be a lower body injury and he's
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: gonna go. And here we are. He's got twelve full
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: games played this season and we're already missing Royce Lewis.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: So I have zero interest in Royce Lewis. I think
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: a healthy Royce Lewis could be an absolute, absolute star.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we'll ever see a healthy Royce Lewis.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he is only twenty six, but it's
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: been so many significant injuries to his lower body at
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: some point you've almost got to start also worrying about
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: like arthritis and scar tissue just with the volume of injuries.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: And so it's gonna be a very short career, I think,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: because not only like can he not get on the
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: field and they're short seasons, but it's just the toll
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: of it has got to be so much, and at
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: some point all the rehab man it is not I
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: don't think it's a fun process that like these players
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: want to be going through, and especially you just hear
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: some of the horrors of pictures working their way back
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: from UCL surgeries and how intense can be and just
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: what a grind it is. And these are guys that
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: love playing baseball, they don't love rehabbing, and so at
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: some point you also have to wonder about just the
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: mental toll that it's having on Lewis. But yeah, I'm
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: totally with you that, like maybe in like an RCL situation,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: the rasball commoner league situation where I'm cycling dudes daily
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: anyway and like being pretty aggressive and cutting like you know,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Glaber Torres like players. You can roster them there for
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But any league where you've got like
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: fab considerations and deep, deep player pools, you can't be
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: messing around with somebody like brace Lewis.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is his ninth IYEL state of his
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: career in four seasons. Like and they're not like cheapees either, No,
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: they're they're two torn aclsu pair of hamspring strains. Like yeah,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: we're we're we're not talking chip's here. They're like all
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: these lower body issues and somehow you're still told twelve
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: bases last year. I'm not sure what the twins are thinking, yeah.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: Just letting him go. Yeah, it's strange. All right, Well,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: we got a last piece of news. And I've said
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: that we wouldn't dip too far into the playerpool, but
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: we've got to do it because Tommy Fam he's up. Baby,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: He's on the New York Mets. He got called up
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: and is on the bench and a short side platoon role,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: but has already garnered a couple starts. And it seems
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: like whenever he shows up on a contender he actually
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: plays more than he does when he's on a second
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: division team, because like, the second division team gets tired
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: of him, but the contenders like, actually, this dude grinds,
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Like this dude can be a heart and soul of
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: our team. So is your bid in fab for Tommy
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Fam in all of our leagues more or less than
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent?
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: Easily more, easily more. Tommy Fam will be the heart
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: and soul of my fantasy team. You know how I
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: feel about fantasy clubhouses, and Tommy Fam is not only
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: gonna bring that up, he's also gonna run the fantasy
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: football league as well. Oh yeah, yeah, we're gonna give
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: him also. And as he runs the internal website too,
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: then transforms it into fangrafts. So we've got all sorts
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: of great Tommy Fam abilities that I mean.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: He's also like one Luise Robert injury away from being
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: a full time starter for the New York Mets, which
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: is I mean another team that is going through it
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: along with some of those other ones that we talked about.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, Tommy FAM's gonna do it again. He's gonna
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: hit double digits homers this year, and he's gonna steal
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: a handful of bases, and he's gonna be like plugged
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: into the back of your outfield lineup in five outfield
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: leagues just randomly because guess what he's playing and he's healthy.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: That's Tommy Fam. That's Tommy Fam for the last five years.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Yep. And if you don't believe me, go into the
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: show notes for this podcast. Go to the rasball website,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: go to the I'm giving you quite the list of
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: clicking into go to the post for this podcast. Then
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: in that post for the podcast, click on the Tommy
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Fam player tag. You're gonna get some great Tommy Fam
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: action from us over the years. So that's why we
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: had to add another one to the analyst of history there. Okay,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit the baseball card calendar, just
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: because we finally got a date for Bowman twenty twenty
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: six on the schedule. It is May thirteenth, so we've
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: already started to get some overuse coming out. It should be.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a big product. It's gonna be also
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: expensive to the jumbos. I think are going for five
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: hundred in the pre order. The pre order, I haven't
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: checked it again just within like this afternoon, but there
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: was still a little bit of it available. So that's
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: also telling, I think though, because usually when we've had
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Bowman pre orders the past few years, they've been hoovered
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: up pretty quickly and they haven't really lingered around the website.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: The fact that they lingered at all shows you that
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: people are already feeling a little iffy about these prices.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: Because Bowman it can be fun, but the quality of
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: the cards is usually lower than Top's flagship. And I
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: mean the designs have kind of gotten a little I
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: would say lackadaisical over the past few years. Is they
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: almost seem like iterations on the same design over and over,
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: and you're just also nobody really values. The Bowman just
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: kind of base cards as much anymore. I find that,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: like even the rookies, they're so highly printed that the
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: last one that had any sort of bearing on the
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: market was was the o Tani one. But that's because
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: there was a dual purpose rookie and first. And I
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: don't even think you're going to get any of that
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: sort of bump with Okamoto or Murakami or Emi for
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: this year because I don't even know if we really
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: saw too much of an impact from Sasaki being in
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: that bout too. So what are you thinking about twenty
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: twenty six Bowmen, Because I know it's one of your
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: favorite releases annually, but it's becoming one where, especially from
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: the hobbies, it's tough sledding in terms of what you're
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: investing upfront cash wise.
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you're talking, you know, two hundred plus
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: dollars for one auto is what you're going for. And
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: I mean even you look at bigger names that are
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: coming up now and just get you know, Noah Shultz,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: for example, just called up. I don't know exactly what
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: his autos are going for. I'm guessing there were seventy
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: to eighty dollars look at some other names are gonna
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: be coming up, like they're just not that weather Holt,
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: who you know, just Homer play here, who's been just
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: on fire, looking amazing. His his first moment auto is
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: like two twenty, like two thirty. Like you're sitting here
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: hoping for a guy that's gonna be a top five
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: prospect in a few years. Just buy the card. Afterwards
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: you're gonna come out way ahead, like, yes, I get
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: the gambles not there. You might not hit the crazy parallel,
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: but it's just it's not there. If you really want,
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: go grab a value boxer two go go do that.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: Two value boxes sixty bucks. That's one hundred and twenty cards. Yeah,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: you it's gonna be fun. You might look into something,
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: but I don't think this is a product that you
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: really want to sit down and grab the hobby box
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: with the jumbo box. It is really a breaker's world.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree the Schultz. You were right that
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: the Schultz prices were trending at sixty eighty bucks, you
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: know before you got called up, but now they're at
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: one fifty. So if you had that actually have probably
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: been in on that market a little bit sooner. Because
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: it was pretty obvious he was going to make a
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: debut pretty quickly. I should probably put my money where
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: my mouth is every once in a while, But yeah,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: I do totally agree. The other problem is that Bowman
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Paper is being anchored by Jackson Holiday. I think in
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: terms of notoriety, it's a bigger hype than it is
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: actually what I think you're gonna see from Holiday on
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: the baseball field.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: I mean the one correction there, it's Ethan Holiday, not Jackson.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Oh my bad.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: I could. I couldn't let you because you have lived
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: that one down in the comments. But yes, to your point,
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's not as big as what Jackson was.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think the error bars on Ethan are
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: pretty big, But like that also means that the bottom
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: end of Ethan's outcomes are pretty low as well. So
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: you're also absolutely gambling on the Colorado Rockies new front
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: office and being able to get everything they can out
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: of Holiday that there's just a lot of things that
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: I think can go awrye compared to some of the
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: other players that we've seen anchor this product over the
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: past coal years, although one of them was Dylan Cruz.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: So I mean it can. It can go sideways pretty fast,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: and especially when you're looking at the back end of
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: that first checklist on Bowman paper being a lot lighter
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: than you would see in Bowman Draft Bowman Chrome. That
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: can also hurt you in the long run too, because
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: all the Jan fifteen signings that just happened, they'll be
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: in Bowman Chrome coming up later this fall. So you're
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: looking at kind of like leftovers from last year's Jan
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: fifteen signings, leftovers from last year's draft that have been
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: shuttled to try to anchor the paper product. But yeah,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: I think you did nail it. Retail is the way
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: to go. It's never I've never felt terribly bad about
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: buying like a Bowman Blaster or too, and usually get
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: a decent number of hits. You hit a little bit
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: of color. But we'll see the final print runs on
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: this thing. Because everything in terms of the market, print
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: run wise and dollar value wise has just been wacky.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're not even a football card podcast, but
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: like things have gotten out of hand for twenty twenty
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: five dollars from football like it's bananas and it's an
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: old design. The cards have been kind of shoddy from
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: what I've seen, and one of my favorite accounts on
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Instagram is actually like a mainly a football card account,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: but he keeps track of like what he puts up
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: to give you, like a dollar value tracker, and let
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: me just tell you he's been bleeding red for a
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: few months. Okay, well, we're going to take a short break.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: We will be back to talk about some of those
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Player Raider surprises that we've got to see if the
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: are true breakouts or if it is just a hot
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: streak that has kind of gone on for longer than
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: we anticipated. So stick around, all right, Welcome back everybody.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: We're gonna dive right into our discussion. So if you
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: want to follow along a bit with us when you're
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: in those show notes, also go to the rasball player Raider.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: There's a link directly in there that I'll show you
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: what the year to date values are. That really this
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: is the easiest tool I've found across all the websites
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: out there that spits out values for you in standard
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: five by five roto leagues. So it's really huge, I think,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: just to be able to look back and also to
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: know what values you're getting out of players because it
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: fluctuates compared to what you were looking at at the
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: draft table a month ago. You know, as the league
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: is actually hitting homers and actually stealing bases, you can
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: z score that live with the Player Raider to be
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: able to kind of provide some insights on what categories
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: people are putting up numbers in. And we're gonna start
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: on the hitter side. We'll get into the picture side.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: I think we've got seven names here. I think we've
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: got to start with the name that everybody's talking about,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: and it's just the hype of all baseball. That's the
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: reason why the Cardinals are hanging around Jordan Walker. Man,
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: it's finally happened in terms of the breakout that we've
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: been looking for for years. Whatever he did in the
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: offseason with drive Line has certainly paid dividends. He's currently
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: our fourth highest rate of player on the Player Raider
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: at forty six point six dollars. Most of that is
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: based in the home runs. You got sixteen point six
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: dollars of home runs because of his eight taters, but
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: the adridge is there. He's offered a little bit of
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: speed and the slash line is just so goofy right now,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: as well as his savant page. One of the goofy
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: your savant pages you're gonna see out there. Slash line
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: is three twenty eight three eighty six, seven thirty four.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: There's a two o eight WRC. Plus it looks like
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Aaron Judge on the slash line. It looks like Aaron
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: Judge on the savant page. Is this just Aaron Judge?
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: Now I don't want to go that far as it
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: this is Aaron Judge, but like it's I mean, I
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: don't know how you argue it, like I you look
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: at every underlying metric like this my compass Brent Rooker,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: Like I want to say that, like if you actually
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: look at the too far off from Judge, Yeah, not
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: too far from Judge. But what I like about it
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: is the speeds. There was a sneaky speed and the
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: the plate approach is still little, not great, strikes out
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: little too much, doesn't walk as much as I like,
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: but then amazing contact may power. I mean, this guy's
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: always swung the bat super hard. And you know, all
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: the reports of Jordan Walker not beyond drive line the
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: off season was his issue was dedicating himself to the game,
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: like it was. He wasn't a guy that was preparing well,
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: it wasn't a guy that was really anchoring in and
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: reading the scouting reports and doing all that, and like,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: he dedicated himself as off season to make this happen,
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: and it's happening. So I'm sitting here, going, I got
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: to write a top one hundred rankings this next weekend.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: And I don't know what to do with Jordan Walker
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: because you look at him and I can't find a
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: flaw right now that I want to, like nick, you know,
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: knock him down, but cauld I call him a top
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: thirty hitter. Yet I don't think I can, but that's
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: what he looks like. And so I'm really struggling. But
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of this is real, and so
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: I'm excited about Jordan Walker. He has the slowest, fastest
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: bats speed. If you've ever watched him hit, I don't
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: know if you watch it, but he's a big guy.
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: The bat looks like it's dragging through the zone, but
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: yet it is literally one of the fastest wings in
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: the majors. And that's just what happens when you are
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: a massive sixty six to fifty human being. So I'm
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: leading into Walker if he's available somehow or whatnot, Like
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: he's got to be long gone. Oh yeah, but I
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: think you just hit the lottery with Jordan Walker this year.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I think the one thing that gives
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: me pause going forward is seeing how he reacts to
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: the league reacting to this, because he's going to start
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: getting a little fewer pictures in the zone. He's going
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: to start seeing a lot more sliders, I think, which
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: has always been his bugaboo in terms of chasing those sliders.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: Can he stay patient in the weeks where he sees
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: literally like four pitches to hit, because that is like
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: what Judge goes through sometimes, and I think that's what's
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: made him so successful, is that even through it all,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Aaron Judge makes sure that he keeps his head on
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: his shoulders, stays locked in, and makes sure that he
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: is not chasing the garbage that is being thrown to him.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Can Jordan Walker do that? I think that's the million
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: dollar question. And if he can easy, easy, top twenty
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: five hitter because everything else is there. But I think
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: we're gonna start seeing that on the back half of
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: April as all the scouting reports get updated as people
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: reapproach their their game plans for Jordan Walker. But like
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: you said, I mean everything's looked great, where like all
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: the flaws, because we've also seen a lot of Jordan Walker.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: We've watched them at all the flaws that used to
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: be there in terms of the he was always flying
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: open on the front. He was always just looked like
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: he didn't have a approach at the plate where you
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: could tell like he wasn't doing a great job probably
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: of like getting into those scouting reports, getting in to
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: the video, getting into everything he could to prepare and
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: actually like play the mental game behind what it takes
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: to like just that like chess match, it is a
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: chess match when you're looking at it. He's had all
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: the physical tools, and I mean, I think some of
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: the drive line stuff fixed any of the physical flaws
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: that he was having. Two in terms of just being consistent,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: because that was the other thing I would notice too,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: is that he just would not have like a consistent
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: swing mechanic and a change around a lot where is
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: like Jason Hayward Ian Jason Hayward would tinker like that
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: a lot. But like yep, he was a good hitter
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: before he started tinkering. You gotta do that first, you
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: can't just tinker, tinker, tinker, and find your way into
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: an approach. So all that stuff has been fixed. I
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: think for Jordan Walker, it's just going to be whether
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: or not he can keep it going. When the strategy
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: starts going against him and people start shooting him like
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: an Aaron Judge like player, can he conquer that? So
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: with all that, what is your best guess for where
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: the Jordan Walker, like five y five roto categories end
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: up at the end of twenty twenty six, where those
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: ends up?
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at I mean the guys,
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: we got eight home, So I'm gonna put him on.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna put him on thirty homers. I'm gonna put
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: him on let's see, I'm gonna say seventy runs eighty
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: RBIs fifteen steals, and I'm gonna say it to sixty
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: five average. I'm gonna dig him on the average a
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: little bit.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: There, you pretty much just regurgitated about what the bad
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: X line is gonna be. That's kind of trippy.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: I don't even have his fangrafts up, so I couldn't
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: even look at it right now.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm there. I think that's probably probably right.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: I might go a tick lower on batting average. I
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: might go a little bit more like two fifty five
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: to fifty.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Steals.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: I think you're fine, Homers. I might even go a
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: tick higher thirty two or thirty five. I'll also take
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: the over on which you said for RBI. I mean,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: this is a much better Cardinals lineup than any of
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: the projections we're catching. We were talking about it during
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: the off season.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: We did. We did.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: I wish I had believed in it because when I
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: was putting in MYVP like picks, I still put the
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: Cardinals last, and I was like, I really think that
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: they might finish third in this division, because, yeah, the
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: lineup around him at the top is solid, and so
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: you're looking at him being in that lineup, you know,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: with JJ Weatherholt leading off, Yvon Herrera, Alec Burlson, Nolan
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: Gorman and Mason Winn provide a little bit of protection
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: behind him, but enough in front of him that I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: think the RBIs is actually going to push triple digits
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: for Jordan Walker this year.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: Hey, baby birds looking good.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So I mean that is a top almost fifteen hitter, right, Yeah,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: I mean if if that's what happens.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: Is it probably I don't know, the top fifteen, Yeah,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: I mean with the steels, like, yeah, it is.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: If he can put up fifteen steals, he puts up
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: the George Springer line that we had had last year
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: and that was a top fifteen player. It is.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's man. I hope it happens. I hope it happens.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: Second round pick next year if he does that. Yes,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: I think he's the second round pick next year.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: Okay, Okay, well there you go. I mean, congrats everybody
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: that found this nugget, because I mean I actually didn't
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: have it anywhere because I didn't.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: I didn't either.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: I didn't think it could happen, and Spring was not great.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: I don't think you could have it like this. Yeah.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: I thought it would get better, maam.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it looks great. Just watch the film of
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: him hitting and dude, he is so locked in. I've
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: never seen him like this. And it's crazy because it's
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: also exactly what the Cardinals needed to be able to
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: take a step forward. That like, they needed somebody like
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: this to e merge from all of those prospects that
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: they had. And it does also give me hope for
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: I wonder if I'm Bloom if there's something happening in
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: the development in the background, or if his all drive
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: line to see if there is something coming through from
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox had been pretty good about getting the
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: most out of their prospects coming through that system. If
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: heim Bloom has learned stuff from that, I think you're
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: also looking at up arrows for lots of those other
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: guys coming through in terms of like Jimmy Crooks has
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: looks great, Joshua Biaz You've got an up arrow blaze,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: Jordan has been off to an outstanding start, and then
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: you're looking at just some of the guys in double
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: A that are big names in terms of like Chase
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Davis might even start becoming relevant and stuff. So just
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind for dynasty situations too, where
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: you might be able to put an extra bit of
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: an up arrow in other Cardinals' bats right now and
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: acquire them while you can before they kind of take
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: off in the similar bane that some of these Red
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: Sox hitters have in the past. Okay, well, the other
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: guy who is right next to Jordan Walker at the
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: top of the list, number one hitter right now O'Neill
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: Cruz from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite the floundering defense that
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: has happened in centerfield, he has not carried it over
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: to the plate in terms of it being detrimental put
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: up forty eight point seven dollars of value. As we're
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: talking right now, the overall slash line is absurd, and
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: I can almost guarantee you too that, Like if you
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: look at who's in first place in your fantasy league,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: he probably has, They probably have O'Neal Cruise. It's it's
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: five homers, seven stolen bases, fourteen runs, sixteen rbi, three
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: twenty eight four hundred five ninety seven slash line in
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: seventeen games. That's on pace for a fifty seventy season
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: with one hundred and forty runs and one hundred and
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: sixty rbi. Does O'Neal Cruise reach that?
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: No?
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: But what are you doing here? Because I will say
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: compared to Jordan Walker way more with Walker has a
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: tolerable amount of WI that has not cleared out of
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: O'Neal Cruise's line. It is a four to thirty six babbit.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: But this is what O'Neal Cruz can do. And last
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: year we got twenty homers thirty eight stolen bases, but
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: poultry runs an RBI. Do you think that this is
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: where Cruz starts putting some of it together and you
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: see it being tolerable for what he gives you in
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: power and speed because the rest of the categories will
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: catch up this year.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not quite there. I'll be honest with O'Neal Cruz
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: like the talent other worldly talents, Let's be very clear
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: about that, he is. But when you I should look
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: at the comps on like savant too. Of the biggest
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: names there are Elie de la Cruz and James Wood,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: which that that shouldn't be like a downfall, but to
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: a degree it is because it is the the flash
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: and the pan type of skill set. He's gonna be
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: great and then he's gonna fall off for a while.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: And that's what one of those guys are. But I
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: think their physical skills are even better than O'Dell Cruz.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: And the thing that gives me pause really is he
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: covers two things of the stats. One he's running a
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: four to thirty six babit right now, so that's that's
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: definitely lifting him up a decent amount within these second,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: I said too, I have three second. He's got a
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: thirty five percent home run to fly ball rate rate
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: right now, which is double his career. That's like Aaron
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: Judge ESQ. That's gonna cut probably a half, and so
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: the home run rate's gonna drop significantly. And then if
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: you look at his plate discipline, it's only one thing's changed,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: and that's his his chase contact rate. So what I
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: want to be clear is his chase rate has not changed.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: His chase rate has not changed. He is chasing just
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: as much as he has ever chase, but he's just
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: whipping when he does that. That is not something that's
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: necessarily sustainable if you're actually still not making those best decisions.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: So I take all those things together and I'm like,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: there's a ton of talent here, there's even injury risk.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: I just don't think it's gonna continue at this rate.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: If he's healthy all season, Yeah, give me a crazy
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: twenty five forty five season where he hits two sixty, Like, yes,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: I could see that. I don't hop if he's gonna
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: be healthy all season, he's gonna ge headaches. I think
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: this is selling time for O'Neil cruise because I think
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: people are gonna finally be like he's delivering and look
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: at the skills, look at the savant page, look at
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: all those things. So I'm I'm fading O'Neil Cruise a
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: little bit at the level that he's being treated, not
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: the fact that he's not a valuable player.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I think that's fair, and I think that
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: all makes sense because it screams crazy hot streak and
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: I think there are going to be portions of it
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: that fall apart. But he's going to be a streaky
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: player too. So something to consider in the league that
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: you're in, you know, if it is a straight annual rodo,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit more of a hole. If you're
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: in like a head to head where you need a
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: little more consistency, maybe you can capitalize and swap out
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: o Neil Cruz and move up a little bit in
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: terms of just talent overall. So I think that's a
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: good call. All Right. We got a pair of Atlanta
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: hitters that I want to cover because they've both come
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit out of the woodwork. But we're also
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: kind of seeing changes in who they are and I
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: don't know if it's directly through what the Braves are coaching,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: or it's just the opportunity, or maybe you can tell
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: me it's just another hot streak. So first one, we
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: have a super utility man, Russio Dubon, who I mean
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: this is huge for fantasy because he qualifies just about
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: everywhere right now, should be eligible at second, short, third,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: and outfield for leagues out there, and has been playing
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: every day for the shortstop for the Atlanta Braves, which
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: has yielded it around eighteen point eight dollars on our
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: player raider considering he was free. I will take the
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: victory lap on this one because when he did move
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: to the Braves, I was like, hmmm, I like this
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: because the Braves usually find a spot for a guy
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: like this. And between Profar going down and Kim going down,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: Dubon has found every day playing time and capitalizing a
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: three thirty nine, three seventy nine, five thirty two slash line,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: two bombs, an eleven runs and RBI piece in his
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: seventeen games. But the exit vlos, the average exit vlo
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: is up a tick, the barrel rates up a tick,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: and things that seem to be trending in the right
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: direction for Marito Dubon, So do you think what you've
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: seen in this profile early on where like, like I said,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: some of the metrics are up a tick, where certainly
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: there is a hot streak here because it's a three
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: eighty eight babbit, but the approach seems a little bit better,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: The overall con attact in bad ball quality seems a
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: little bit better. So at one point do you actually
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: start believing some of this Because it is sixty six
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: plate appearances, so it's not a ton, But we've also
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: seen so much of Mariso Dubon previously and never seen
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: this version of him. It makes me a little more
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: hopeful that with the new team he's found something to
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: unlock in his game.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think you look at the level here,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: it's not like he's gone bonkers. He's just been really
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: good at lots of little things and so being above
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: average multiple things, and it's being very valuable in fans
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: to see. What I like here is there's not like
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: one carrying skill or luck or something that happened. He's
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: improved at the plate. He's swinging a little bit less
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: than he has historically, actually quite a bit less than
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: when he gets historically. He's selecting the pitches better than
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: what he is. His first pitch swing right is down
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: over ten points compared to last year, and he's if
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: you actually look at what he's doing better with, it's
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: the fastball and the slider. He's always struggled with the hard,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: hard stuff, and I think he's picking his spots better
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: than he ever has and then that's resulting in better results.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: And so if that's just a change in the plate approach,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: then I think this is exactly who Ratio Dubon can be.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: And it's not like he's he's hitting like twenty homers
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: and stealing twenty bases and hitting three fifty. Like this
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: is a guy that is your Swiss utility knife, and
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: he's he's kind of in the Brendan Donovan conversation type
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: for me. That's kind of where I see him. He
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: can play out all over. He's like the guy I
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: love to have on my bench because he's never gonna
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: be on my bench. He's gonna played every day. And
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: so I actually, when I look at the covers, I'm
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: actually okay with this. It's not like big luck driven.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: It's not like it's over the top. It seems like
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: it truly is an adjustment, and I feel like the
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: Braves are a team that truly do make those types
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: of adjustments. So I'm willing to get on the Dubon
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: train with you.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think I'm there too, where it's like,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not expecting this to be a league winner, but
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: he goes from NL only consideration to rostered in twelve
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: teamers because you gotta fill out your lineups, you gotta
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: plug and play, and this is exactly the type of
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: guy that can do it and provide a solid batting average,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit of pop, decent counting stats where he
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: just provides enough to keep you the momentum going and
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: give you positive value that when you fill in the
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: gaps with a player like Dubone, it really really helps
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: to keep you competitive across the board, because I mean,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: at the end of the day, Rotisseri Fantasy baseball, a
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: lot of it is getting volume that Jeff's ever been
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: shown that again and again. Whoever is getting the most
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: at bats, especially in NFBC contests, getting the most innings pitched,
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: they're generally doing better. So a player like Dubon helps
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: you reach that potential just because you can put them
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: anywhere in your lineup whenever you need them. Let's stick
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: in Atlanta for the next guy, because this is where
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: I need to call you in as the batting profile
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: guru that you are. We're talking Dominic Smith, who's been
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: playing DH but he will qualify at first base for fantasy.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: He's put up an insane amount of value already for
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: the Braves, just coming out nowhere, twenty four point three
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: dollars of value in our player Raider. It has been
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: a three ninety five four to fifteen six eighty four
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: slash lines to two inter WRC plus with three homers
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: and fifteen RBI. Of course it's in a crazy four
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: hundred Babbitt, but he has cut his k rate. It's
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: a career low k rate if you look at it
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: compared to any other point in his career. This is
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: also a guy who had the pedigree coming up for
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: the Mets. I mean, he was a first round, eleventh
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: overall pick back in twenty thirteen and just never could
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: kind of put it all together. Except for the twenty
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: twenty season. He did put up a one sixty six
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: WRC plus in a fifty game sample and looked like
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: that was going to be the breakout. So there's been
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: glimmers a bit for Dom Smith, but he's bounced around
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: a lot. He's not got any defensive value. But you
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: look at the savant page here, it's a solid looking
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: savant page. I mean, maybe not enough bat speed to
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: back up the profile, but he's hit some absolute nukes
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: this year too, and I think he continued could continue
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: to do. So let me see how his bat speed compares.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: So he's always been a lower percentile batspeed guy. But
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: whatever approach changes he's made so far for these first
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: forty four plate appearances have worked in Atlanta? Is this
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: gonna stick? Or is this? Is there something in here
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: that screams hot streak to you? And like, how do
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: you parse that apart?
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a tough one, but because if you
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: look on the surface, it's like, yeah, I could see it.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: I can see it here, but I'm definitely not buying this.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: This is a hot streak.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: You can go.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: You can use the easy metrics BABIP home run for
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: a fly ball rate, those the first two I always
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: look at for for Luck, he's running a thirty three
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: percent home run for flyball rate when he's been like
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: a career, like seven or eight percenter, So he didn't
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: just magically change that. You got the low bat speed,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: you know, the launch angle has never been necessarily immaculate
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: for him. He's a little bit better this year, but
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: it just doesn't It doesn't change ten years then all
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, and then you go and look at
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: kind of the type of pitches that he's been successful
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: with and the plate discipline he's using. He being successful
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: on jumping fastballs, and he is being incredibly aggressive. He
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: is swinging at ninety percent of pitches in the zone.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: He is swinging at the first pitch almost fifty percent
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: of the time. And because of that, he's just getting
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: fastballs and he's jumping them when because he's never been
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: that player, he's never been aggressive. He's always been blow
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: leak average from aggressive perspective. The league's going to adjust,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: he's going to he cannot hit the curveball, he cannot
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: hit off speed, and so he's just jumping fastballs right
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: now is all he's doing. And he's getting good luck
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: while doing it, and yeah, so of course that's gonna
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: give you the best expected batting average in the league
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: and things like that. He also braves him, let him face,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: but I think a lefty for one at bat the
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: entire season, he's a pure platoon bat. So you start
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: to look at these different things. The league's gonna adjust,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: he's not gonna have full playing time. I think it's
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: gonna be a rude awakening for Domas Smith or not
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: rude wakning. I think it's gonna be a crashing back
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: down to Earth. Sure, maybe he's made some little improvements here,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: but I see a lot of red flags on that profile,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: even with how wonderful that Baseball Savant page looks.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's all fair. That Like, I'm cool
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: with writing the hot streak while you can right now,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: especially if you're scrambling for a CI, But as soon
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: as it starts going south, don't feel bad about cutt
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: and bait where I think the especially like even the Dubon,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: but especially the Walker. You know you got these guys
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: for free. You got Dominic Smith for free. He will
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: continue to be free, I think, And so you don't
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: have to worry about letting him go back to the
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: waiver wire when he turns ice cold, because we've seen
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: this before, and I'm with you on top of it all.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: There's no defensive value, so he's kind of like a
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: burden on a roster. And so even if he's hitting,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: like if he's not providing anything at first base and
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: you have to use it DH spot on him when
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: you're platooning him, it's really tough to make it as
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: a major leaguer as a strong side platoon DH only player. Yeah, okay,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: well that's going to wrap up the hitters. We're gonna
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: do pictures now. I think I'm gonna flip this a
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: little bit where I'm going to talk about the player,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: give you my case to why I think actually all
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: three of these guys have reached a different tier and
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: actually have unlocked something, and you can retort from there
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: or agree. So we're going to start with the number
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: one player period in the player Raider right now, it
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: is Jose Soriano of the Los Angeles Angels with forty
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: nine point four dollars of value. He's looked all that
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: value too, if you've watched any of his starts, he
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: has really been revolutionized underneath Mike Max's tutelage, and Maddox
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: really has pushed with him to be more four scene forward.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: And so this is a guy who has featured his
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: sinker but is starting to mix in the four seamer
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: more than he ever had. And so what's that's actually
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: done is it's given him a really nasty five pitch mix,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: especially when you're talking about a heater that's coming in
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: at like ninety nine is where it will touch And
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: let me see where he's been sitting recently after we've
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: kind of got everything lined up, I mean ninety eight
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: point two, So like it is been outstanding. The movement
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: on the slider and the sinker has been pretty wicked.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: It's moderately above average for the stuff plus metrics, but again,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: when you put it together with a five picks five
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: pitch mix, it plays up everything because it's really hard
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: to read it all of the hand. And this is
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: a guy too, where it's day and night watching the
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: way that he's approached the mound and kind of taking
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: control of the game from where he was previously and
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: where he's been at this year, Like he looks this
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: year every bit of an ace. I think this is
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: a guy who has reached another level you're probably looking.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's not going to keep up a point
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: three three era and a ten point three K nine
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: that he has from the first twenty seven innings and
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: picked up four wins. But I think you're looking at
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: a mid threes e RA guy. I think you're looking
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: at a guy who even I'll take the under on
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: the whip just because it's touch to touch. The Angels
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: defense behind him is terrible. So like I think, you
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: you what, that's what helped me back from Soriano in
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: anywhere that I didn't pick him up, but I do
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: have him rostered pretty pretty often throughout my teams because
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: I've always loved the mix. Uh, and was worried about
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: the one point four whip that he put up last
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: year and looked like it'd stick with the Angels. But
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: if you're not touching it and the stuff's nasty, the
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: whip's gonna drop. So I think you're looking at a
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: guy who's a mid threes e RA ten k per nine,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: a one two one two five whip. I think you're
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: looking at a number two fantasy starter right here here
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: on out from Jose Soriano. So, uh, what do you
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: you've seen from him? And uh, what's your value on
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: him going forward?
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's hard to argue. I will try,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: but it's it's hard to argue about Soriato here. Clearly,
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: the luck metrics are ridiculous right now, like you're never
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: you're not gonna live with one hundred percent left on
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: base or a one forty three Bay BIPs like that's
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: not that's not gonna happen. But his ex FIP, his
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: x cras you know, two seventy eight, two seventy three,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: give you a hope. I love the fact that he
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: keeps the ball on the ground all those The the
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: two areas that I'm concerned with is one what you
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: already said. The Angels just in general don't develop pictures
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: well and they don't feeld well, and so I think
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: that that's gonna be a challenge for him throughout the season.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: And then I'm I'm not quite sure what to believe.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: From a control perspective, which will then translate into whip.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: He's he's doing the best he ever has and from
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: a control perspective, but we're also the fourth year in
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: for him for a career, and generally you don't see
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: guys make a big leap and control at that point
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: in time. Sometimes they get one season where it happens,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: and so that would be the other kind of caution.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: I have a story out of here that said, like,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: those are dippicky things. He's going deep into games, he's
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: being efficient with his pitches, he's doing all of those things.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: So I like him. I'm not sure I can put
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: him in number two. I could probably put him as
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: a number three right now, with the hopes that like
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: these things all hold true for me, I want to
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: see that control continue, continue to stick around. Because he
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: had one game that he walked nobody. He struck out
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: ten looked unbelievable. Next game he struck out ten, but
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: he walked three. Like it's like that's and that's where
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: with the left on base getting lucky and not give
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: him the homers up at this point, all you know,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: you know is how it goes. A walk, a bloop,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: and a bomb that quickly changes things. So I think
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit of things on the edges that
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: I'm like, let's see can those hold? If those hold,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: I can buy your number two. So I think he's
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: really developed. Of all the guys we're probably gonna talk
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: about here, I think he's probably the guy that I'm
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: most interested in.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, okay, So I mean, even though you're a
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: little bit lower, you're not.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: Actually I'm not terribly I thought I was gonna be
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: lower than further I Doug. I'm like, and actually there's
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: a lot to like here, ye see angels.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: Sorry, yeah, exactly. So that's good, like the four wins
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: are not going to pace out. But also when you're
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: dealing like this and going deep into games and you
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: only have to rely on small slivers of that Angel's bullpen,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: it makes it much more likely because uh so, yeah,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: I think, especially in situations where Jose Soriano came to
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: you free, I'm sticking with him because, like, especially, I
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: don't see how you get proper trade value because you know,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: whoever's coming to trade for him sees everything we just
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: talked about and you probably see it too, and they're
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: trying to buy it still at the old discount and
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: Jose Soriana rates or the projections, I mean, the projections
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: have been updating pretty qui and honestly most of them
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: have picked up what all the changes have been and
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: integrated going forward. That's why I also feel pretty confident
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: about this. But yeah, I think it's a it's such
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: a great pickup that you just hold let it ride,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: because I think Soriano is going to be a solid,
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: dependable pitcher in all formats at this point. Yeah, Like,
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: I agree, all formats. See, he's absolutely a must own. Yeah, okay, Well,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: the next guy we got that's made some big changes
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: is Toash Bradley for the Minnesota Twins. This is a
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: guy who's twenty five years old and has put up
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: a one to twenty five ERA and one eighty seven
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: fifth over his first twenty one and two thirds innings
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: with a career best twelve k per nine and a
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: career best like by far twenty two point six k
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: minus BB. Everything has looked great on every pitch metric
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: like component that you're looking at. Uh. This is a
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: guy who came up with a lot of hype for
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Rays, and it usually like the Rays
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: are able to unlock players, but sometimes they don't. It
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: seems like that, Like I think sometimes the raise approach
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: can be a little bit too razy and you just
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: need a new new voice in the room. And I
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: think that's happened here with TODJ. Bradley and Nick Abel too,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: who looked crazy good last night in his start. We
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: didn't put him in this list, but like, I think
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: Able's kind of on this list as well to TADJ
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: Bradley's already given you twenty four point three dollars of
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: value that is the exact same as Tom Smith. And
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: this is a guy who everything's looking great again. The
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: projections again have already started to pick this up. All
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: of them have him at like a four era and lower.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: I think this is a guy who's a little bit
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: more of like an upper three's era because he's just
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: gonna go through it. Sometimes he's he's a little bit smaller,
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: he's got an arm angle that can waiver a little bit.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: But the Twins also pushed up the arm angle from
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: what the Rays are at, and I think they really
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: work their magic in the offseason. But it is just
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: a guy who sometimes he will get wild too, So
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: like that's something you have to look out for. And
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: it doesn't take much for you, know, you walk to
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: and give up a three run tator. And it's a
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: little bit of a rough game for TAJ Bradley. But
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: you go to his savant page, you look at his
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six page. Here are the top five pictures
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: that are a similar profile right now based on velocity
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: and movement twenty twenty five, Dylan Ceas twenty twenty five,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: Hunter Brown twenty twenty four, Yoshi Noba ma Yamamoto twenty
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: twenty five, Drew Rasmussen twenty twenty five, Tyler Glass. Now
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: those are all number one and two pictures for fantasy.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not putting Bradley quite that high, just because, like
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: we've seen flashes of this from Bradley. All those guys
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: I also rattled off like they do have like a
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: special pedigree compared to what Bradley's had in the past.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: Where I mean even when he was drafted, it was
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: it was a later pick, it was a fifth round
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: pick where they had to buy him out of his
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: commitment because he was straight out of high school. But
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: just the ups and downs that we've seen from Taj
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: Bradley over the years make me a little more hesitant.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: But I think a solid number three, number four fantasy
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: started from here on out uh solid division. They pitches
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: against again, another guy who should probably be rostered everywhere,
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: especially while you ride the hot streak. Maybe he gets
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: dropped later in super shallow leagues, but I'm all in
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: on Taj Bradley. We've seen everything that we need to
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: see in terms of the improvements.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: What do you think, Yeah, I mean I think it's
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: gonna be up and down. I think it's I agree
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: with you, he's a must roster at this point. You
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: know that he's added a mile proor to his velocity,
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: So like, those things all look good. He like, he
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: does seem to be in a better space, seems to
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: be controlling what he's doing better.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: But my counter argument to the guys you listed from
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: a pitch, you know, mixed perspective are the quality contact
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: comparables who are Anthony Bender code is Singa Tanner, Bibi
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: Resoulsen like guys of that elk, which is a far
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: other end of the thing. So like, but if you
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: use one of those, Yeah, but if the average was two,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: like at your point, a three or four starter feels
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: about right. So I'm I'm kind of there, Like, I
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: feel like he's useful. He's given up a lot of
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: line drives this year and they've been caught in that.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: So I think there's this quickly could have been a
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: three or four era and would be kind of masking this.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: So I think there's a lot to like here. I'm
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: not nearly as high on him, but I've always been
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: a Todge Bradley fan. I think he does really good
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: things on the mountain. There's still a ton of potential there,
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: So I'm I would definitely be buying Todge Bradley and
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: putting them on my team.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the other factor here too
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: is lots of baseball cards and probably dirt cheap, pretty
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: pretty young. That like, if he stays at this level
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: and can kind of honestly, it's you could see a
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: little bit of like a Dylan cease going forward possibly
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: in terms of his career directory trajectory. And if that's
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: the case, there is money to be made in the TAJE.
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: Bradley market because I'm guessing you can scoop a lot
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: of those rookie cards up pretty quick and pretty easily
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: because they came out in twenty twenty three. I believe
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: right he was in the Adley Rutchman rookie class. That
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: would have been three yep. I think right, I'm trying
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: to think of my sign.
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: I'm fact checking you right now because I I for
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: whatever reason, cannot remember it.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's the design with the little head in
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: the corner.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you're right, sorty three.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: Yep, that's how Yeah, that's how I was thinking about it.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think Taj Bradley's all system go systems,
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: go this next dude. I will admit I don't totally
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: know what's going on, but it's all working, and he's
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: had the pedigree behind him. It's just like it's confounding
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: that it's all finally coming together right now. For Emerson
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: Hancock of the Seattle Managers or Mariners. He was a
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: first round pick sixth overall back in twenty twenty, and
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: I don't he was like the most mid back end
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: innings eater picture of all time the past three years.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: It was an era in the upper fours across the board.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: The k rate was consistently hovering around six, and he
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: looked exactly like a dude who should be shuttled back
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: and forth between triple A to provide some just length
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: for the bullpen and the starting rotation whenever they needed.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: In Seattle, I don't know what they did, but everything
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: is just better across the board for Emerson Hancock in
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: his first three outings as honestly, he wouldn't have been
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: in the rotation either if it hadn't been for the
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: Bryce Miller injury. And so he's taken advantage seventeen and
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings a K minus BB that is twenty
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: five point eight percent, a two point zero four era,
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: a two forty three fit, a little bit of luck here.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: You know, it's a two thirty seven babep and but
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: the hard hit rates are down. He's controlling it. The
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: slider has looked elite, the fastball has been pinpoint. Like
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: I said, I don't know where this Emerson Hancock has been.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: He used to be this when he is at Georgia
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: and got drafted. I don't know if there was an
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: underlying like injury or mechanical issue that they finally corrected
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: and unlocked underneath Emmerson Hancock. But everything looks like this
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: is a dependable player. You just look at the the
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: Savant pages two like it is just blue, blue, blue, blue,
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: blue year over year, and this year it's red. The
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: arm angle has dropped, so I think they found some
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: success in finding a new arm angle for him. But
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: you're looking at this is a guy who I think
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: probably in the shallows of leagues he might be a
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: little bit more fringy, but in a twelve teamer and
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: a fifteen teamer they're competitive, So all systems go on
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: Emerson Hancock as well. It looks fantastic. You've also got
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: the pedigree to lean on. This is what we expected
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: from Emerson Hancock when he got drafted, and it's just
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: so odd that it cropped up this year when he
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: wasn't even going to be a part of the rotation.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: So what do you make of Emerson Hancock, and especially
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: in like more of a dynasty keeper format because he
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: is twenty six. If you're looking at a guy who's
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: gonna be an, he's not gonna keep up like a
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: thirty k MISBB. But if he's a twenty two k
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: MISBB with a mid to high threes er, like this
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: is the type of guy you probably have so cheap
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: in dynasty leagues. Right now, he's an anchor of your
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: rotation for the next three to five years. Yeah.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, if we go on to the rant we
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: like to on this podcast, which is control ground balls,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: and then the one thing that's missing was strikeouts. And
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: he made a very notable change from last year to
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: this year. He added a sweeper, so it's not a slider,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: he's he added a sweeper, and he is now thrown
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: at thirty percent of the time he is up to
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: the velocity on a sinker, and that's making this fastball
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: play better. And so you combine those things, he's using
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: a different pitch mix much more effectively. So all of
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: a sudden, the strikeouts jump, but yet he still has
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: the same control and the same ground ball type profile.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: All of a sudden, that's exactly what we look for.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: So I like it. I'm really having a hard time
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: finding something not to like when I see a distinct
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: change and the approach on how you're throwing pitches, and
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, the stuff follows, Like Yeah, like,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: of all these guys, he might be the truest of
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: what's actually happening, what could actually happen the rest of
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: the season. I think Soriano's like the guy would trust
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: the most. But if you're looking for wins and things
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: like that, I still would take Seattle over over the Angels.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: But well, yeah, and you can play you can always
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: play Hancock at home, like you can take every start
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: in Seattle that there's nothing stopping you from just streaming
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: him at home.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I I the more I look at him,
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: like I all three of these guys are must own,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: must roster, and I'm having a hard time finding it.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: It's like, this isn't the Dom Smith situation where I'm like, yeah,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: there's something that he changed, but it's exploitable, Like I'm not,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: I'm not seeing something here. You know, he's he's got
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: he's out of the pitch that looks different, and he's
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: out of velocity on the other pitches and are making
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: the other ones play better. Like that's a recipe for success.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: So I I'm willing to to to buy in here,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: you know, give me a give me an e ra
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: in low threes, and I'm I'm very very happy about that.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And I think the thing that makes it much
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: more easier to like identify and buy into pitchers compared
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: to what it used to be is that you've got
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: the pitch metrics. You've got so much data on all
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: this stuff now to show like what's actually happening underneath
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: the hood. Where I mean, honestly, you've got to move
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: after like a starter or two on most pitches because
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: if you're in a sharp league, everybody else that's looking
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: at those metrics is also moving quickly. But if you're
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: in a you know, a league that maybe is not
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: quite as sharp and it's a little bit more of
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: a home league, some of these not so certainly isn't
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: butossible Bradley and Hancock might still be hanging out on
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: your Waiverpool because people are like, oh, I'm it's a
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: nice little lucky streak, and they look at the babeip
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: and they look at you know, some of the luck
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: metrics that have been traditional. I'm here to tell you that,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: like with pictures, you can't do that, Like if you're
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: underneath the hood, you should be in or out on
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: a picture pretty much like immediately after they're they're producing
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit of data for you and throwing enough pitches.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: So I think all three of these guys, like you said,
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: we're in and I think in dynasty keeper situations, I
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: think you can feel confident in them going forward because
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: it's wholesale changes to who they used to be and
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: that's exactly what we like to see.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: All right, last question on the pictures, rank them one
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: through three if you could, if you had to pick
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: on the rest of the season, what's your rank.
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: I think it's in the order that we did Soriano, Bradley, Hancock,
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: mostly because I think Soriano you're getting the most volume,
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: you're getting the most high end pitching. Bradley I like
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: more than Hancock just because of the strikeouts that especially,
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: it's really difficult to find free strikeouts and if you're
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: able to do that, that's why I've got Bradley a
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: tike ahead of Hancock. But it's tight between Hancock and Bradley.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: What about you, I would take Storriano and that I'd
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: flip Hancock and Bradley. I think Bradley's got a little
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: bit more variability in his profile. I think Hancock's made
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: a more notable change. I think Bradley's a little more
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: velosty to change. But like, yeah, they're pretty close.
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And it depends on your league build too, Like
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: are you chasing quality starts, you're chasing wins? Are you
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: chasing canine? Are you chasing raw strikeouts? That'll be a
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: little bit of the answer to between Bradley and Hancock,
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: because there'll be situations in leagues where one might be
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: better than the other based on what your categories are.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, Well that's going to wrap us up for this week. Brew.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: Let everybody know where they can reach you on socials
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: and read your work.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: Yep. Find me on Twitter ex Blue Sky Jabrewer one seven,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: find me in rasball the weekends and in top one
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: hundred hitter rankings and hitter profiles for the rest of
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: the season on Sundays. Coolly, where can folks find you?
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: Yes, you can find me on Blue Sky at m
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: cool seven cool spelled co u I L L like
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: my last name, and you can read my work on
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: Baseball Perspectives. So I'm doing starting pitching roundups there every
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: week and then every month also be kind of like
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: doing a wholesale update of letting everybody know how depth
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: charts are trending and what's kind of happening down in
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: the minor leagues so that you can start planning things out.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: And I'm calling it building a watch list. So just
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: started there at Baseball Perspectives, still kind of building out
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: what I'm going to be doing going forward, but it's
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: been a lot of fun and uncovering a lot of
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: cool dudes, I think in terms of Yeah, Jose Soriano
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: was the coverage in the first week, and it's been
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: nice to see him blow up, so blow up in
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: a good way, that is, yeah, a good way. You
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: can also find the podcast on Blue Sky at Cards Categories,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: or email the podcast at Cards Categories at GMAS. We
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: mentioned it earlier. If you're in the show notes, look
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: at what we have in terms of gear for cards
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: and categories, look at those Rasball subscriptions, and look at
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: all the other links to everything else we've discussed today
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: in the podcast. So thanks for checking us out. If
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: you haven't done so, wherever you're listening to us, whatever
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  Speaker 1: podcast catcher you're using, rate and review us wherever you can.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: It really just kind of helps us get feedback on
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  Speaker 1: the podcast as well as work our way up charts.
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  Speaker 1: We're i mean, we're doing hot in terms of the
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  Speaker 1: Baseball card charts for podcasts. So we've got lots of
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: releases that are going to be coming down the pike
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: later in this month, as you alluded to, with Bowman
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: Paper coming out soon enough. So thanks everybody for checking
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: us out and listening to this podcast. We'll see you,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: same time, same place next week. Take care,