Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 6 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter

Transcript

NFL Week 6 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. It is Tuesday afternoon. Later on
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in the show, we're gonna have Darren revel Is gonna
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: come back on the show, although I don't know why
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: we're doing that, because he's gonna join me in Professional
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Better Simon Hunter as we try to make our five
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: picks for the Westgate Las Vegas super Contest where we're
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: trying to win one point five million dollars. Last week
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: we went four and one. Darren was not involved in
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: anything that we did, and yet we are still inviting
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: him back. We are sixteen and nine on the year.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: This is the best I've ever done in the super
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Contest through um these first few weeks. Uh, through the
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: first five weeks. I guess sixteen and nine is twenty
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: five games, five five games a week. But first, joining
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: me from the New Orleans representing all the Boyd Gaming
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: books in the state of Nevada and throughout the country,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scucci, the most majestic man in all of bookmaking. Chad,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: what's going on? Brother? You were given a gift this
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: past week. Do you know what I'm talking about? No?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Did you did you not desperately need the Chiefs to lose,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: not just not cover, but the Chiefs to lose outright? Oh? Absolutely? Wow.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: So I don't see how that was a gift though
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: that When you say a gift, I thought, maybe, like,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: you know, we got, you know, a bad beat that
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: went our way. It was just clearly the right side
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: we were. We had that game in the bag from
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: the beginning. No, Jesus, clearly the right side. You act
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: like you know, you act like you know what you're
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: doing on a day to day basis, when at the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: end of the day, all of this is pot luck,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: my friend, pot luck. Absolutely no my days, my my
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: day can swing hundreds of thousands of dollars by a
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: joint field goal attempt. So yeah, now I I know
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: how much luck is involved. Uh. Speaking of luck, I
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: um also in my quest for two hundred and fifty six,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: I went to nine and six this past week, and um,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I am now thirteen games over five hundred for the year.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I'm picking every game, and I am thirteen games over
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: five dred Scooch. That's kind of scary. You know, it's
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: almost due for a little bit of a regression. Well,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna be this week, my friend, let's continue.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I might have to fade all your plays today Today,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Thursday night, we got a burn burner. We got the
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: New York Football Giants visiting New England. It's gonna be crappy,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: crappy weather, windy, rainy, ugly northeast New England football. I
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: don't even know if the New York Giants can feel
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: the team. Right now, the line at the Orleans is
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: sixteen and a half. The total is forty two and
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: a half. Um, talk to me, Goose. Yeah, well, we'll
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: just trying to open as uh as high as possible,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: knowing that New England's gonna draw money everything time. So
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: we we opened sixteen and a half, and as usual,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: the first bets out of the gate were on New England.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: But it wasn't necessarily sharp money, it was just big
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: public money. We went right to seventeen very very quickly,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: and then we did get some big money on the
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Giants have plus seventeen h that made us go back
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: to sixteen and a half. But you know, a lot
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: of this is just gonna depend on You mentioned that
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: the Giants are just plagued with injuries. They've they've got
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the short week. Both of them have the short week
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: trying to get all these guys healthy. But the entire
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: linebacker crew for the for the Giants is kind of
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: listed as questionable. They were practicing a little bit today.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: That it's not the team you want to be facing
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: with injuries to your linebacking crew. That's that's for sure. Um.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: The only good news is is se Kwon Barkley might
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: He was on the field today practice and he might play.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: But they they've got injuries to Evan ing Room and
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: and um Sterling Shepherd, so they're really really banged up.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: It's too bad too, Like they were starting to show
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: some life. I thought they were the totally wrong side
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: this past week and so that paid off for a
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: lot of people. But they were starting to show a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: little bit of life, and so it would have been
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: interesting to see how Daniel Jones can do as a
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: heading into New England against this defense with a full compliment.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna see that this week. Yeah no,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I mean actually the bad weather we're actually hoping for
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: for bad weather that usually plays in the underdogs favor,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: especially getting sixteen and a half points. We've got the
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: total at forty two and a half, so figures to
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: be somewhat low scoring, so that that might play into
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: our favor, and that's probably what's drawing some of the
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: sharp money on on the Giants, even with the banged
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: up staff. Um. You know, I agree with you. On
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the Giants. We weren't quite sold on it. Just a
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: couple of real good performances by Daniel Jones and the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: and the team that you know, they were playing a
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: bad a couple of bad teams. But the going up
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: against the Vikings, we really liked the Vikings and we
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: tried to put it ourselves in a position where we
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: need at the Vikings. We got a little early Giants
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: money last week, but by the end of the week
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: all the sharp bunny came in on Minnesota. We ended
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: up losing that game anyway, even though we also like
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: like the Vikings. That was one of my mistakes last week.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: I had three big mistakes last week. One of them
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: was instead of just playing the Giant playing the Vikings
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: out right, I decided to get fancy and play the
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: over because I thought they were just going to come
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: out and try to throw the ball, which they did.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I just thought the Giants might score a little more points.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: All right, h next week kicking up at nine thirty
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: in the morning Eastern, playing in London. It feels like
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Carolina and Tampa Blay played each other practically every week. Uh,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Kyle Allen, Jamis Winston the Carolina Panthers on a neutral field. Uh,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: this is quite a surprise. Opening is one and a
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: half point favorites right now with a backup quarterback who's
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: on a hot streak against the Tampa Bay team that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: looks that looks a little bit like um it got
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: exposed this past week. Uh So Scooch, how did you
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: make this line? And where are they playing it? Yeah,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: we actually opened to pick them on this and we've
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: seen a lot of action on this already. Right out
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: of the gate, they laid pick with Carolina. Well, we
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: went to one, they laid the one, We went to
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: one and a half, and then they laid one and
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: a half. Uh, we skipped to we went right to
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: two and a half, and that's when we got a
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: little bite back on Tampa Bay um at plus two
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: and a half, and then we went right back to
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: one and a half, which is kind of where we're
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: sitting now. A little bit heavier on the ticket count
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: on the Panthers, But um, it's actually kind of an
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: intriguing game that Uh. We we really liked Carolina last week.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: We tried to put ourselves in a position we felt
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: like that was a good spot for them. Uh. We
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: we liked their defense all year. Uh it was just
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: like you mentioned the quarterback, Uh posit. She was kind
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: of what was the question mark with this team? So,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: um this, I think I think we're in a good
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: spot here. We got pretty good two way at one
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: and a half. Now we'll probably still end up needing
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. I also loved Carolina last week, as you recall,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I had him in Scooch roulette. They covered handily, and
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: we will play Scooch letting. I don't know handily. It
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: was pretty close there at the end. Jacksonville gave him.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I think it was thirty seven and Jacksonville was driving.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I think it was like an interception that that finally
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: uh killed him there at the end. But they had
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: a shot to tie it up late. I didn't sweat,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: not one second. You had Houston and scootre a lot,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: and we'll get to that. We had We will get
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: to that they made it very easy for you. But
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: the next game on the board of Cincinnati at Baltimore.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Baltimore and eleven point favorite over the hapless Bengals. Um,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: what's interesting to me. You have it at eleven fifty
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: percent of the money so far coming in on Cincinnati. Yeah,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: this is an interesting We opened it twelve, and you know,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised at all the Bengals money. And uh, I
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: would like to kind of take a mulligan on this
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: one and open it lower, because you know, I liked
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: looking at common teams and and and like past performances
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: of a couple of the games that didn't make sense
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: a few weeks ago but now make a little sense now.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: And I'm going back to the game Cincinnati played against
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: San Francisco and Cincinnati was at home, and Cincinnati just
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: got blown out by San Francisco. And yeah, the Bengals
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: are bad, but not that bad in light of the
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: fact that now San Francisco looks like they're not a
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: bad team. So they didn't get blown out by a
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: bad team. They got blown out by a pretty decent team.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: And it turns out the Ravens probably we were slowly
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: adjusting them downwards, but maybe we haven't adjusted them down
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: quite enough. So a lot of money on the Bengals,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: both from the public and the sharp guys. And I
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: always say, anytime you have both the publican the sharps
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: on the same side, we probably made a mistake here.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: So I think that's too many points for Baltimore. Delay.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: What do you think this line should have been? I
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: think probably about nine nine and a half. I don't
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: know how anyonere in their right mind could bet on
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati right now. Yeah, you know, I can't. I have
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: to go back pretty far to see so many bad
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: teams to the start of the season. I mean, there's
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: there's about eight teams that either have one win or
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: no wins, and the disparity between the really good teams
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: and the really bad teams it seems to be growing.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: You have those topping league teams and then the bad
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: teams are just really really bad. And unfortunately we have
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: to winless teams playing each other this week. At least
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: one of them has to get a win, and in
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Washington in Miami we'll get to that one. But but yeah,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I watched his Bengals team and they just are really
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: really bad. Uh, speaking of bad and not really knowing
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: who they are. The Seattle Seahawks are going to Cleveland
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: there one point favorites. This feels like a season making
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: game for the Cleveland Browns. Uh. Is Freddie Kitchens just awful?
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Do you fire him right now? Because you cannot waste
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: a season of O B J. Landry and Baker Mayfield
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: and Nick Chubb and Myles Garrett and like you can
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: go down the list. There is phenomenal talent on this team.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: And this team last night came out on a Monday
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: night football game and played horribly. They looked confused, they
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: looked unprepared. Freddie Kitchens was making bad decisions literally from
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the coin flip um this team. I can't imagine a
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: team that has dropped more in the procession of the
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: public in the last five weeks than the Cleveland brown Yeah,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: they really have. Fortunately though they're probably one of the
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: worst divisions right now. Uh you know, between between the
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Ravens Pittsburgh the Bengals and at two and three, they
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: still got a legitimate shot to kind of win that division.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: So it's really early and I think you give you
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: give Kitchens a lot of leeway before you start putting
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: them on the hot seat. And you you mentioned something interesting.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: You said that they looked unprepared. And there's many times
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: that I find, at least in my opinion, that a
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: team will prepare for one game and not necessarily not
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: go into a game unprepared, but just maybe over overlook
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: this game to prepare for the next game, which they
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: may consider a little bigger. And I would not be
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: surprised if Cleveland showed up and beat Seattle, because I
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: do think they were preparing probably a little bit more
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: for this game. And and like you mentioned this, this
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: is a real key spot for them at home. Um,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: you know, Baker Mayfield has got tremendous talent. I mean,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: look at what he was able to do last year. Uh.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: They I think their problem is probably on the offensive line. Obviously,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: just for watching that game last night, can't give him
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: enough protection. He can't can't look at the second and
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: third receivers. He doesn't. He just doesn't have time in
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: the pocket. So I we opened this game one and
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: all the early money is on Seattle, but it's not
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: necessarily some of the big shark money that we typically see.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: So the sharp guys haven't weighed in it's all public
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: money driving this up to one and a half. And
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: like I said, I think there might be a spot
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland. I agree. I totally agree. Like we have
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: back to back in Seattle Cleveland and Houston Kansas City,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: we have back to back public perception games, right, and
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: so we could talk about then both in sort of
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: as a couple these two games. Because you're gonna get
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Houston going to Kansas City. There are five and a
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: half point dogs on the road to the chiefs um
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: at the Orleans right now. And again, like everything I'm
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: looking at, you can get the Action Network app. Download
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app for free. You're gonna get like,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get the money percentages, you're gonna get the
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: spread percentages. You're gonna get lines from all over the country.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Orleans. I'm seeing five and a
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: half and I feel like that's downgraded a little bit
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: because Houston beata did so well in Kansas City lost.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah it is. You know, this line probably would have
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: been about seven a couple of a couple of weeks ago.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Even when people kind of lost confidence in Houston. We
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: didn't really give up on them, just off of the uh,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: you know, the one week against Carolina that that they lost,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: and so we we kind of felt Houston would bounce back.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: And Houston has got a real good offense. You know,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: we saw that in Week one against against the Saints. Uh.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: But but yeah, there's a little bit of a downgrade
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: here and uh and again talking about the teams that
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: look ahead to prepare for what they consider big games.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Look back a couple of weeks ago when the Colts
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: played the Raiders, and the Colts were about a seven
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: point favorite at home against the Raiders, and nobody could
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: understand how the Raiders could beat them, uh, straight up.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: But then it kind of makes a little bit of
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: a sense, at least to me, when the Colts may
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: have been looking to really prepare for the Chiefs and
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: then that's the game that they really show up for
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: and end up, uh, you know, playing the game of
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: the year against a really good Chiefs team. So that's
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: why you have to kind of look and see what
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: the schedule lays out, because it's it's a long season,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and outside of the Patriots, most teams can't prepare the
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: same level of intensity every single week. Uh So so
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: here we have the Texans and the Chiefs. We opened
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: five and a half and we're not getting the typical
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: kind of you know, uh, just lopsided action that we
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: typically get on the Chiefs. We're not seeing that. It's
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: about a two to one ratio Chiefs detections. But it's
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: funny how just one week and one loss can really
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: slow down, uh, that kind of avalanche of bets that
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: had been coming since the beginning of the year. Yeah,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: it's kind of stunning. And by the way, Kansas City
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: plays Denver the week after Cleveland, I think Cleveland has
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: a by the week after, So this is a game
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Cleveland should be totally prepped for and ready to go.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: I've never been more ready to lay my mortgage down
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: on Cleveland. By the way, Like I need to see
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit more about the injury report on Kansas
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: City before I decide if I'm getting value there. But initially,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: initially my feeling is I'm getting a lot of value
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: on Kansas City. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah, And and
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: we you really have to look at mahomes effectiveness. You know,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: he that ankle. You just wonder how much that ankle
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: is bothering him. And so so that's one thing to
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: to to kind of pay attention too. But but but yeah,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: you're right. Uh, the injury report makes it makes a
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: big difference. And uh, I think we have the number.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: It might be a little low, but Houston has come
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: up big for UCE a couple a couple of times
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: this year, So I think they I think they might
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: be a live dog. Well, you know how much I
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: love Houston. You know I love the Shaun Watson. This
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a very tough game for me. I'm
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: excited for you to choose Houston at plus five and
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: a half. In Scoot row let let's go on to uh,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: New Orleans, New Orleans, let me talk. Let me talk
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: to you a second. It took you a second to
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: do what to catch up to the fact I was
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: saying it was gonna be that you were taking them in, Scootroulett. No, no, no,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: I was just moving a line. You're going to the
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Saints Jaguars game, and I just took some money on
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: the Jags and just went to one and a half. Wow,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: line change, yep, just because we were getting to that game.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, there you go. We're getting to the
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Jags game. We're looking at New Orleans visiting Jacksonville right now,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: and I see it lighting up on my screen. I
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: see the line at the Orleans just changed to one
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: and a half. The Jaguars are favored by one and
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: a half points. So you took some money on the
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Jags right now? You took some money on the Jags. Uh,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: even though six of the money right now is coming
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: in on New Orleans of the tickets. So would you
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: take some wise guy money there? Absolutely, this is a classic,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: classic game where the wise guys are on one side
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: and the public is on the other. The Saints seem
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to be moving up in everybody's power rankings. Uh some
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: really impressive wins the last two weeks, and uh so
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: so going into this game against the Jaguars, even though
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: they're on the road, it's a It's a game where
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the public is just gonna say, she's a Saints are
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: like in the top five of uh of my power
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: ranking list, and and you know, how can you not
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: at the Saints. But this game reminds me a lot
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: of the Browns Seahawks game where the Jags the Jags
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: at home. You know, they were at one point to
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: pick them and and now they're laying one and a half.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: But it's still seems like you know, from one and
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: a half to lay that that short home favorite, that
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: this might be the play. You know, those weeks when
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the schedule starts to shake out and like we're finally
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: seeing it. You know, the Patriots not consistently covering, uh
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: or not consistently, but the Patriots, you know, having a
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: week where they didn't cover a couple of weeks ago.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Now the Chiefs going a couple of weeks without covering
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: and losing outright, Minnesota coming back a little bit, but
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: still playing a Philly team that looked dominant against the Jets,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Like Cleveland looking terrible, having Seattle visiting. Like, we're getting
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: the right scenarios where if you generally tend to play
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: short home dogs or you like to play against public perception, um,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: you're getting those opportunities right now. And look, there's seventy
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: almost seventy of the money is on Seattle. Uh, that's
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: setting up to be a really nice spot to take Cleveland.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I'm looking right now, we're gonna move on to Philly
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: and Minnesota. Of the early money it's coming in on
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia against Minnesota. It's gonna be in Minnesota. The Vikings
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: are three point favorites. So basically, you know you're saying, um,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: neutral field even, I'm gonna love the Vikings here. Uh yeah,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: this is a tough one. Um, I think we have
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: the number right, so I don't think we're gonna move
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: this line at all. We may move the money off
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: of the minus three. The Vikings are minus three even
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: money right now, but we we did open three flats. So,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: like you said, six four percent of the money on
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: on the Eagles, that's what we're seeing as well. Um,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: not necessarily big money, just a lot of tickets. So
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the public is really supporting the Eagles. Now, both teams
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: made a little bit of a come back after entering
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: the season with a lot of high expectations and then
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: having a couple of bad losses that made both teams
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: kind of dropped in most public's estimation. But but both
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: teams seem to have made a pretty good resurgence. Uh,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: you know in the last couple of weeks. Uh, you know,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Minnesota with a decisive win that the last week, and
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: uh that the Eagles with a big win over the Packers. So, um,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I think that Eagles win probably looks a little bit
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: more impressive than the Vikings went over the Giants, and
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: I think so the public feels that even though they're
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: on the road getting points, they're probably the more value.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: M hmm. Interesting. I don't feel that way at all. Actually,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I actually feel like they were impressive against the Jets
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: against the who the Eagles. I don't think they were
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: against the Jets. No, I said the Packers. No. No.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: What I'm saying is like last week, the Eagles were
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites against the Jets, right, and they needed
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: like there was some defensive touchdown in there. It's not
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: like their offense went out there and dominated a Jets team.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: And so them coming into Philadelphia, I feel like most
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: people are coming into Minnesota. I feel like most people
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: are gonna look at the box score and look at
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the final score in that game, not the box score,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Whereas I actually feel like Minnesota's win against the Giants
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: was really impressive, um given the turmoil that they had
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: been under and what they had to do to get
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: through all that, And so I think that Philadelphia is
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: going to be overrated by the public. Minnesota is going
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: to be underrated by the public. I think you made
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: a line that is probably uh a little bit shaded
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: towards Philly. Uh. And I would give Minnesota like another
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: point at least, and so I'm taking him at minus three. Yeah. No,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with that at all. I think, Wow, Yeah, No,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree at all. I I just don't think
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: we're going to move this much. I And I'm fine
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: needing the vikings knowing that they're going to come in
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: on Philly. All right, all right, I'm just handicapping what
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the public perception is. Well, pul perception. Public perception is
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: going to be to play Philly as it has shown,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to play Minnesota. Yep. I might play
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: Minnesota in the money line. I took the play. Yeah,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: what do you think of that? M m uh Listen,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: here's my theory on Washington and Miami. I believe that, UM,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: people generally bet on games because they want to have
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit more enjoyment at stake, and they bet
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: on games that they want to actually watch. So only
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: the like hardest of hardcore gamblers are going to bet
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: on Washington and Miami. Um. I almost want to spend
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: this time thinking of five other things I'd rather bet
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: on than Washington and Miami. How could I better spend
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: that fifty dollars that I might bet on this game? Um,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: then watching this game for the lack of enjoyment that
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: will get from it is a better Yeah. I agree
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: with you there. Um, I wouldn't want to spend much
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: time on this game. Where Washington minus three and a half,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a coin flip. I don't think we'll
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: get much interest. It will be the lowest bed game
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: on the board, and it'll be the corner TV game
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: corner team. Nobody. Yeah, nobody likes to watch bad teams.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I mean it's bad enough when when a bad team
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: is playing a really great team and you're just watching them,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: you know, self destruction. But when two bad teams are playing,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: it's it's it's you gotta turn the channel. For the
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: sake of argument, Why do you have Washington is a
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite when we're not even
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: sure if McCoy or case Keenum or someone else is
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: going to be the quarterback? Well, just on paper, uh,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: adjusting the numbers each week, the Dolphins have been far
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: and away the worst team, uh, both against the against
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the spread, and we look at the just the point
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: spread differentials. Uh, and I mean that's just the way
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: the numbers pan out on this one. Um, we think
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: it's right because, uh, the sharp guys didn't bet anything yet,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: and usually they let us know when we're wrong. This
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: is the week Miami covers. I promise you this Washington
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: team is in disarray. Do you think Bill Callahan is
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: going in and saving that team and getting them inspired
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: to go down to Miami and play well and show up.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: There's no way, no way. Give me the dollar minus
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: three and a half plus three and a half plus
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: three al plus three and a half. Uh. Listen, the
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: resurgent uh and undefeated Francisco forty niners are on the
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: road at the Los Angeles Rams. You have met three
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: and a half right now, money and tickets all coming
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: in on the Rams. Um, not surprising. What was the
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: look aheadline on this game? This is a you know,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: I saw it as high as five and a half.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: So two point two point difference. Um, you've had to
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: make gotten significant adjustments from bookmakers. Yeah, you know so,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: as much as I just touted how good San Francisco
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: is and a well well balanced team, Uh, I think
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: the value here is probably still on the Rams. We've
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: we've we've adjusted the number down. We're actually slightly heavier
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: on the Niners in terms of ticket accounts. So but
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: it's early yet, it's not overwhelming, and I expect this
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: to to change a little bit. But the adjustment has
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: already been made both on the on the Niners and
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: and and the Rams. I think this I think it's
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: a little low, and I would probably favor the Rams
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: in this spot. You know, you you look back at
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: some of the teams ers. You know, they beat the Bengals, Uh,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: they beat the Browns. Uh. They beat the Buccaneers the
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: first game of the season with I think five interceptions
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: from from Jameis Winston. So yeah, there are a lot
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: better than people expect. But are they good enough to
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: go on the road and beat the Rams? So? Um,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I still favor the Rams in this one. I think
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: I do too. I think the three and a half
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: is high, and I wish that I didn't have to
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: pay the hook. Maybe i'd buy half a point if
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: it was spinnus three. What would you make it at
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: minus three months twenty minus three minus minus three months.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: But I I am a bookmaker. Yeah, you're getting good
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: it's like unbelievable how good I'm getting at this. You
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: should let me. You should let me come in one
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: week and just make all the lines and post them.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: That would be interesting if you actually had the courage
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: like to let me come in, make every number and
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: then you post it and just see what happens, because
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: I'd probably give you a better I'd probably give you
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: a better like combination of wise guy and public perception
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: than even your own consultants and your team can do.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: That would be in That would be interesting. Maybe maybe
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: like on my last day of work, when I'm about
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: ready to retire, I'll give it a shot this way
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: that there will be no repercussions. Jimmy Kimmel, Uh, you
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: know Howard Stern. Howard Stern was in l A this
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: week and he had Jimmy kimmelan, and Jimmy Kimmel told
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: the story about how he was invited on Bill gates
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Is last day of work, Bill gates Is last day
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: at work. He was invited to give a to do
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: a roast. Wasn't a toast, it was a roast of
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Bill Gates, and apparently Bill Gates didn't understand what the
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: roast was because he had signed off on this. So
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Kimmel went in roast ready and was just ripping
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: the guy to shreds. And when it was over, like
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: it was so clear that Bill Gates did not enjoy
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: it and like was angry about it, and that nobody
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: was laughing about it, and Jimmy was pissed because he bombed.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: I feel like, on your last day, you have me
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: come in and like the chips fall, with the chips fall,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying. Yeah, that's what's gonna happen.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Like I said, no repercussions. You could do whatever you
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: want on your last day at work, exactly. That's all
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: that's gonna happen. All right, here we go. I got
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, my least favorite team, visiting the Arizona Cardinals,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: one of my favorite teams. Yeah, this was really a
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: tough line to make. I think. I think honestly, we
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: could have went minus two on either team and not
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: gotten much action. Uh so we're still we're still minus
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: two on on Atlanta. So we have Atlanta obviously rated
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: higher than than Arizona, even though Arizona's UH showed him
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: a lot more signs of life than Atlanta has. UM,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: it's just that slow movement of adjusting lines week after week.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: So I will say we're lower than some other places
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: in town that have Atlanta as high as two and
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: a half. UM. Not that it makes a big difference
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: to two and a half, but not a lot of
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: money on this. We actually have more tickets on Atlanta
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: than we do on the Cardinals right now. M this
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: is a tough one. This is so short that I
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: almost feel like you actually do have to play the
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: money line in this game, you know what I mean?
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: In Atlanta, I probably play Arizona. No, you don't play
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: You've never played Atlanta. Well, you know what though, Like
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: this does feel like a spot where you play Atlanta.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Like Arizona is a really bad team, Like in spite
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: of what they did this past week, they played a
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: team that just might be worse. But like Atlanta. Still,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't think they're very well coached, and
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I think they're suffering, but I don't think like their
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: talent level is as bad as Arizona's talent level. UM.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: No real strong opinion on this game. Dallas at the
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: New York Jets. The Cowboys are ten point favorites. But listen,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys are starting to show a little bit of
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: frailty um, and like what I don't here's my take
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: as someone who is very invested in the Cowboys this year. Uh,
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: in a futures market perspective, I think this is a
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: team that just hasn't put it all together in a
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: single game yet. Like, in every single game they've played,
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: they've had like spurts um and in most cases they've
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: been able to get away with that, but against the
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Saints and the Packers they have not, and so they
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: just haven't been consistent. So I think they're worthy of
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: being ten point favorites over the Jets. Absolutely, this team's dogs. Yeah,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: it surprised me a little bit the performance against the Packers.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: It didn't surprise me the loss against New Orleans. That
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: was a great spot, uh for the Saints, but I
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: think it did did surprise me a little bit against
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the Packers. Uh. We well, we have them clearly so much,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: uh as one of the you know, the top top
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: five or ten teams you know in the league, and
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: they kept steadily rising before those last couple of games.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: But you know they're going up against the Jets team
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: that can't move the ball. And but we are seeing
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: some money on the Jets because they uh, we may
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: see Sam Donald back and not that that's going to
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: make a great difference to this Jets offense, but uh,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: you know it clearly is an upgrade and and he's
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: probably worth at least two points. So we've seen this
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: line as high as ten and as low as seven
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: and a half. You're gonna see a lot of that
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: movement until we know for sure if if Donald is
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: in or out. It looks like from where the money's
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: coming in that is more probable than than not, so
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: probably expect to see Donald. I have seen this line
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: move literally as we've been on the phone. Yeah, just
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: just a lot of money, and it's mostly Jets right now.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Early on it was it was Dallas. Uh, and we
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: know the part that the parlays are gonna be all
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: over Dallas. We know the public is still going to
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: be all over Dallas at any number, at nine, at seven,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be They're gonna be on Dallas. So it's
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: just where where the sharps are gonna land. And it
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: looks like at least early on there there are Jets.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: But and then this next week, and if it comes
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: out that that Donald is not playing, you'll see this
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: line go right back up. Tennessee visiting Denver boy two
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: and a half Denver two and a half. I guess
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: in this spot you gotta take the short home favorite.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Like you know, you're getting two bad teams. You got
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge with Denver just based
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: on the number you take the Bronco I I would,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: and I think we're you know, when we set this,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: we expected that they would lay the two and a half,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: and they are at about a two to one ratio.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: We'll be quick to move this up to three. Um,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: especially being you know, one of the late games. And
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I've always talked about kind of the volatility on the
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: late games. At least there's a lot more of them
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: this week than than there were last week. But we
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: we really liked Denver in that spot last last week.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: I remember talking of going into last week's game oh
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: and four, they could have won any one of those
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: four games. So it wasn't a real big surprise that
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: they beat the Chargers. Um, you know, as a big
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: as a big underdog. So I think in this spot
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: at home with Tennessee kind of inconsistent as they've been. Um,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: I certainly would favor Denver. And I'm kind of talking
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: to myself into go into three as we're on the phone.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Dinna do it. You're gonna do it. Um, I'm there.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna let him lay the juice. Though you just
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: changed it. I just saw you change it. Oh my god,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: this is crazy. Oh minus three plus one hundred. Literally
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: you were typing in. I've heard you type it and
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: it showed up on my screen. Isn't that great line? Change?
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh on the road visiting the Los Angeles Chargers, which
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: really isn't a home game for them. You've got him
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: at six and a half. A lot of other places
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: haven't met minus seven plus one hundred. You might move
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: it while we're on the phone. Fifty fifty money scent
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Chargers. I don't know, ma'am.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: If I don't have to bet this game, I don't wanna. Well,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph is doubtful. Uh so the Steelers are just
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: down to Uh Devlin Hodges is there the starting quarterback
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: against against the Chargers. Chargers have been disappointing everyone this year.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: They just come off the loss I just mentioned to
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: the Denver Um not exactly the high profile game they
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: envisioned when they schedule makers put this out there. Um
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: so uh, I guess six and a half. I would
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: probably lean a little Chargers um, but tough one. It's
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: a just two teams that are very disappointing this year.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Pass It's one of the rare games where the Sunday
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: night schedule is not as good as the Monday night schedule.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Monday night schedule I love because I really like this
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Lions team in spite of their coach. I like this
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: Lions team playing the Packers. Packers are four and a
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: half point right now, I'm telling you, right now, I
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: see what's the way the wise guys are going. I
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: know which way I'm going. It's the same way as them.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Give me the Lions at plus four and a half. Yeah,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: we really so, we we really opened this on the
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: high side. We opened the Packers six and a half.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: So we are just absolutely buried on the Lions. We
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: went down to four and a half, so two point
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: line move. But it's all sharp money that the public
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: is still on the Packers at about a two two
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: and a half to one ratio so um. Being being
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: the Monday night game, we know that the public will
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: still come back and lay the favorite on this one.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: But Lions certainly have been great in the role of
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: a of a dog this year, at least for us
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: in games that we've needed them. So this is a
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: good one. I'm actually excited for. I think for the
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: first time on a Monday night game, I am too.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: I am going to go big on this Lions team.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, I think they're in a
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: good spot. I think they've played well. I think they've
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: played well this year. I think like that Cardinals game
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: to me, actually felt more like a reckoning than uh
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: falling apart, and they realize that they're a good team
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: and they've shown it, like their defense is really good.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: It just is. They played really well against the Chiefs. Uh.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: They battled hard, their offense was great. Obviously beat up
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: on the Eagles. Like, guess what time it is, Let
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: me guess, we give a selection. Let's roll the music, Scooch.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: You won last week. You at Houston. I won last week.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: I had Carolina. I am a gracious host. I am
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: going to let you go first, because there are so
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: many freaking games that I love. There are me too,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: because I I like Cleveland, I like Jacksonville, and I
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: even like the Bengals. So but if if there's one
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: I probably like more than the other, it's probably Jacksonville. Yeah.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: I do love that game. I love that game. You're
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: taking Jacksonville minus one and a half over the New
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. You know what I'm gonna do. I'm taking Cleveland.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: Give me the Baker Mayfields. Give me the Baker Mayfields.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: It's you know what I'm doing. Give me the give
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: me the Baker Mayfields to win, to win. Well, yeah,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: they're They're only game one, so they pretty much after Yeah,
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: well listen, I'm don't do not do that. Do not
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: do that. By the way, that is uh, one of
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: the most beat games on the board so far. I
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: see that. Yeah. Uh, second most big game on the
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: board that I'm seeing right now after the Rams Niners. Um,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: don't do that, don't make it. Don't make me look bad, Scooch.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: I'm taking big Baker Mayfield to win. All right, brother,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: that's our show. We gotta wait, we gotta that's that's
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: our show for you and me. We still got Danren
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: Revel and Simon Hunter coming on and we're gonna talk
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: about our Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest picks. We went
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: four one last week. We're sixteen and nine, But first
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: we gotta do a read. We got a big new
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: sponsor coming up and I'm super excited, and then we'll
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: be back with Darren Revel, Simon Hunter and our Westgate picks.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: All right, we are back, as promise. I've got Darren
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: Revel and in a few minutes we're gonna bring on
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, a professional betting advisor who so far has
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: guided Darren and I to a sixteen and nine record
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: in our quest to win one point five million dollars um,
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: which I'm feeling really good about right now. I feel
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: like the conversations we've learned so much. And I thought
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: last week Simon gave like one of the greatest betting
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: like inside betting tips I've ever heard. And that betting
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: tip was when you are betting a underdog that you
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: think has a chance to win, normally a short underdog,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: it's always a good idea to put a little bit
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: of taste, just a little on the on the money
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: line too, because you get a little bit of value
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: on that game, and look that tends to pay off
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: a fair amount. It happened this past weekend. Just look
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: at the Colts, right, Colts were plus eleven. If you
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: liked the Colts, put a little bit of taste on
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: the money line. You're getting a little bit of value there,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Dan Ravel, you're back this week. You missed last week
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: and we went four and one. Unrelated, spurious correlation. Don't
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: use your big Northwestern University wards with me. Unrelated. We're
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: good though, I'm hey, I'll take it. I'll take it. Listen.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, we all win together, right,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter how much input
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: you have. We're all we're all in this together. Did
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: you read our draft our Draft Kings story? Uh, don't change,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: don't challenge me? Oh I did? I did? Indeed, why
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: don't you tell the Why don't you tell listeners about it?
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: So they were going into Indiana DraftKings. Thursday was the
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: first day of mobile bedding. They offered an odds boost,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: which has kind of been the tendency to offer something
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit greater than promotional, just to kind of
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: what is typically promoted, just to get you know, these
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: guys to sign on the first couple of days, they
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: did a odds boost from plus four six d Coults
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: moneyline too, plus the thousand and thirty eight percent of
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: the people that signed up. I decided to go with it.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: And even though it was a max limit of ten dollars,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Draft Kings lost three thousand. Unbelievable. They're in the betting business,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: my friend. They made a promotion there, new to Town.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: They wanted to say, hey, come join us. It's exactly
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: what happens, all right, listen, we gotta we got a
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: deep schedule this week. Um, there are so many games
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: on the board that I love, and I am walking
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: away from any sort of public games. Like there are
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: just games on this board right now where I feel
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: so good. But go ahead tell me the public games
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: that you want to be Well, well, I'm sure you
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: expect me to almost fall in love with sixteen and
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite in New England, but I am
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: not going to do that. Um, I am not tempted
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: by the Dolphins. That's a tough one for me. I mean,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: even though can you imagine there there has never in
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: the history of the NFL been a home dog for
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: a team off of bye against a team that hasn't
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: won any games and just fired their coach. That is
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: a great That is a great summary. So but I'm
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: not taking it. I don't. I'm I feel like the
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Dolphins uh want to lose, and so I think it's
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: just bad money anyway. I like Sam Donalds and the
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Jets at plus nine here, um I think uh, I
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: think the Jets will be righted a little bit and
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: I think they will cover. Um. I all so, so
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: I also like I liked how they played last week.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: I like the Cardinals. I just wrote. I just wrote
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: what I like. So you you tell me who they're playing? Uh,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: you don't know who the No, I do know who
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: they're playing. I just it's on my phone and I'm
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: playing Cardinal's card Cardinals plus two and a half. I
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: like them. Uh the game that scares me that I'm
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: taking And maybe you can talk me off the ledge here,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: but I just think it's such a great value New
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Orleans minus one against Jacksonville. Okay, um. And then I
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: like the Bengals at eleven and a half. I think
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: it's way too many points. Um, who are they playing Baltimore? Baltimore?
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Too many points, so I like plus eleven and a half,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: and then finally I like the Packers at four minus
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: four and a half at home. Okay, let me tell
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: you right out, I hate every one of your picks,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: like not just uh, there's not accept except the only
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: game where I'm even remotely thinking there's value Bengals plus
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half. In fact, not only do I
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: hate your picks so much, but Jacksonville playing New Orleans
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: and Detroit playing the Packers are two of the picks
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: that I would put in my five. Can we get
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: rid of the word hate as the holidays are coming up?
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: And you know what, that's what my my granma used
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: to say. We don't hate, We intensely dislike. He feels
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: hate feels mean it feels then um, well, look, I
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: just think green Bay like Detroit. Green Bay is coming
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: off a massive win against the Cowboys in America's Game
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: of the Week against the Cowboys team that everybody was
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: incredibly high on. Um and that Cowboys team, if that
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: game is five minutes longer, they very might win that game.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: They had a as bad a first half as you
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: could possibly have, multiple turnovers, holding penalties on huge, huge
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: plays that could have got them in it at any
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: point in the first half of that game. The Lions. Meanwhile,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: like they they fell apart against the Cardinals. But I
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: think what that game did to them, And I just
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: said this to Scooch, like that game actually showed them
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: what they rebounded from that game. They got better after
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: that game, Okay, and then all of a sudden, like
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: they win the next game, they play the Chiefs, and
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: they don't play badly. In fact, they've got the Chiefs
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: on the ropes and they actually sort of a precursor
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: to what the Chiefs became in the following week. Meanwhile,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: then they go into Philly and they dominate against Philly,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: like they destroyed that Philly team. So I think that
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of public respect right now for
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: the Packers, and I think the Lions are a much
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: better team, uh than people are giving them credit for
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: right now. Okay, well, if you want that, I'll take that,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: all right. I like Detroit. I like Detroit plus four
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: and a half um Jacksonville. Same same same theory, Like
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: look in New Orleans. Look at what New Orleans is
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: coming off of. Right, Like they beat up on the
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: Cowboys and then next week. They come back and Teddy
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Bridgewater like plays with the full playbook and he looks
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: really good and they win a game that they were
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: favored to win. But everybody thought the right side was
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: the Bucks in this game, right, there's not a single
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: wise guy all over the Action Network Stucky, you know,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: one of the smartest guys at the Action Network. He
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: was all over the Bucks in every single way. I
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: remember saying in the podcast last week, why is everyone
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: in the Bucks? I don't get it, Like this New
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Orleans team is just a good team. They're one of
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: the best our teams and so um, I don't like
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: where the numbers are right now. I feel like there's
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: too much money, too many tickets. Public is really back
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: in New Orleans. Anytime I've got a team that is
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: overvalued getting a ton of ton of support from the public,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: I am going to want to bet the other side,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: especially if it's a home dog, which is what Jacksonville is.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: So do you think do you do you think by
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: the time we picked this thing it will be to
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: two and a half. It's entirely possible. I will make
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: a condition on that because I do not like I
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: think the number here is bad I want. I wanted
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: to be possible for the Saints to win and still cover. Additional,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: we can set it conditional. What Yeah, we can set
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: conditions the Saints to win and Jacksonville is still cover
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: because Jacksonville is your pick. Sorry. Here are my other
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: games here on my other games, and then I want
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: to bring Simon into uh to um be the judge
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: and jury here. I like, I'll take Cincinnati plus eleven
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: and a half. Um. I think that's a good one.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: And I also love I love Cleveland. I love Cleveland.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Cleveland as a by the following week, I think they
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: we're looking ahead of this game last night. It's Tuesday afternoon.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about Monday night against Then what is the
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: line on Cleveland? Seattle is a one point favorite maybe
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: pick in some places, but I just feel like this
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: is one of those opposite ends of the spectrum. You're
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: getting way over valued in in Seattle and undervalued in Cleveland.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: So give me uh. I still don't think Cleveland is undervalued.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: I still think they're maybe maybe maybe you know, Monday night,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: did it? Eight percent of the money is coming in
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: on Cleveland right now. The wise guys have on Seattle.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: The wise Guy's been betting Cleveland. Um, we're gonna reach
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: the twenty world where you've got a short home dog
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: that is only getting percent of the money. That's almost
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: an automatic take. I just don't like the whole idea
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: of a sharp bet being what someone else like going
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: against the public just to go against the publish Like.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: That's not a data point for me. But I guess
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: I'm learning. Uh, well, well, let's Simon weigh in on that.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: The the last game that I like Kansas City? Uh
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: as a five and a half point for every against
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Houston again the same philosophy. People are down on them,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: You want to bring them up? Yep, Simon, you're there.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: And now a word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: How's it going? God, Hey, buddy, how are you? Good? Man?
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: Is Darren here today? Darren is here? Wow? Damn? We
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: really still last week going four and one? I know,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: I we I already got the ribbing. I was really
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: upset we didn't get your pick. Man. Next time you
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: you're not there, you gotta send him picks. I like
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: to hear what the public Simmons. You guys, here's what
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: I want to say. I want to lay out I
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: want to lay out what I've decided on so far,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: and then I want to give you some notes from Darren,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: and then you tell us where we are right, where
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: we are wrong. Okay, all right, we can do that,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: all right. We have settled so far Detroit plus four
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, since plus since he plus eleven
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: and a half. Um, those are the two we've settled on.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: We don't five and a half, and we agree on
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Kansas City at minus five and a half. Those are
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: the three we like so far. So two for you
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: both agreed on. We both agree on those picks. I
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: had to bully I had to bully Darren into Detroit
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: and semi convince him of Kansas City. I like, uh,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: I like you guys are going with these dogs. Um.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: We talked about it last week, how we switched out.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: We end up switching out the Colts just because we're
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: sending these picks in early, so we didn't have the
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: full in your report. Um, but we were dead on
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: with that Denver dog in Indianapolis dog. So you guys
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: two dogs. You really like her since in Detroit. I
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: like that Detroit idea because they're coming off of bye. Um.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: So I mean a Monday night coming off of bye
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: super extended week. Um Man, now I'm just starting to
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: think about all these times staffords actually let me down
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: the spot. But the line, the lines have been playing
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: a really good team and I like that. I like
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: you guys around Fincy. That's definitely a sharp, sharp public
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: number this week, where a lot of people came in
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: early as soon as numbers came out on the Ravens,
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: and now it's kind of been sitting there at the
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half twelve. All right, so in agreement,
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: let's just say we're an agreement so far. Uh yeah,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: we can. We can be an agreement on those three
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: for right now. Okay, Now, how do you feel about
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: Cleveland against Seattle? Which I love? I love the Browns.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: In this spot, I'm probably the right long um professional
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: better asked about Cleveland, Like, you know, all the years,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: everyone's like every week, all these sharps coming back on Cleveland.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: I was the guy always doing the other way. I've
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: been fading Cleveland for fields like five years. Um, this
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: is like one of those classic spots where they were
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: absolutely terrible on Monday. Seattle is coming off at to
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: rest and everybody's I mean, I don't even know what
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: the numbers are, but I can guarantee that the public
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: is going to be all over that Seattle numbers. It
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: opened at I think it opened Cleveland minus one um
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: or two, and now it's up to I think they're
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: plus one, which is I mean, by the rule book,
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: if it's if they're a short home dog and they're
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: getting less than three of the bet, I'll be on
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: that number. But I don't know if that's a good
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: super contest get number. Here is a problem I have
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: with Chad. It's like, Okay, it's like we just watched
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: a horrific game by them, and he likes them because
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: the public likes the other team. I don't understand the
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: sharp just to be sharp, just to be different without evidence.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: I don't love those plays. Well, yeah, the evidences you've
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: been long term. So that's why he likes that play,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: because that's a long term winning play. Like if I
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: would have told you last week that, like I I
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: told on the podcast, I always put whenever I take
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: a dog, I always put some on the money line.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: I was gonna take you. I was gonna tell the
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: take the Colts first half money line in the game's
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: money line. You have said that's stupid. So that's why
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: it's these sharps just look for percentages. So he's playing
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: the percentages here, is saying that the math works out
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: that Cleveland, just going by the numbers and the books,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: they probably have over sixty chance of winning and covering
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: this game. So the public is gonna keep driving this
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: number up. I mean we might be able to get it.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: We might be able to get Cleveland. Okay, I undertand
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: I understand what you're saying. I understand what you're saying
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: now that that when everything shakes out because of how
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: people bet you have, you actually do have a better
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: chance when you when the line comes out because of
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: how the public has pushed it. Yeah, like the style
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: he's talking about as a certain style would like people
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: are betting against the public and they're playing the first scentages,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: so they're playing off trends of those percentages. So it's
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: a smart percentage play, but it might it might not
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: be a smart play for a super contest. That is
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: a great that is a phenomenal point that actually might
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: have been in many years what's killed me in the
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: super contest? And you've pointed this out a couple of times, like,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: I will play what I think the sharp trend plays
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: are not necessarily play what a smart super conscious play is.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: So in deference to your logic and in deference to
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Darren not liking it, we're taking Cleveland off the board. Um,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: let me throw another one at you. I'm not ready
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: to throw any of the other picks that Darren through
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: at through it. Um, I will know what. I'll throw
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: you one. Because he and I are on opposite sides
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: of this. He likes New Orleans. I like Jacksonville, right, Um,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: I could see why he likes New Orleans in this spot. Um,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: I think I saw some crazy stat about ted You
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater October He's never knocked covering October. Um, but
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: this is a this is another classic. I mean, I
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: actually don't mind this one for the super Contest as much. Um,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: the Jags is just the easiest player. I mean, if
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: you're not playing the Jags, don't play this game at all,
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: You're you're you're betting on Teddy Bridgewater coming off to
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: Home Winds with crowd his in the Superdome. Now the
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: man is going on the road to hot Florida to
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars team who just is coming off with a
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: bad loss. So that's that's one of those where if
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: you're not if you're not playing the Jaguars, don't bet
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: that one. Yeah, but you're not talking about Minshew magic
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: running out. I mean again, Um, I mean it didn't.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: I I honestly saw a lot of flight out of
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars last week Carolina, Like me and Chad talked
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: about that, that was a good trap game where the
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Jaguars should have just laid down. They should have got
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: team rolled, and they had a bunch of big plays
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: like they had McCafe for you, bust out a huge run.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: Minshew drove him down the field, they scored a touchdown,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: and then I think the next possession he fumbled, they
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: took a way back in score, and then he drove
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: the field to get him scored. So, I mean, I
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: can see you're saying that Minshew Mania might be running
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: out here, but he's actually showing me a lot that
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: he belongs in the league. He's a he's a player. Yeah,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: like that game they had. You know, I was all
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: over Caroline in that game. But if not for you know,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: a couple of choice turnovers, they made a strong run
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: at the end and just ran out like they just
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: you know, it just didn't happen for him. But yeah,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: that's why I like the Jacks. I like the Jacks
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: in this game. But if that makes you nervous, we
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: don't have to put that one in, Darren. If you
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: don't like that one, really, Simon, you get to decide.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: I don't get to decide. What about my other one?
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Cha that you want to I want to hear what
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: I want. I like the public Darren, also like you
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: like to laugh, Darren. Also not at all. He likes
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: the Jets plus nine. Wow, very sharp of you, Darren.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: Is that just because it's your jet? No, I don't
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: do that. That's not a way to win. Um, I
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: just number I think, uh, Sam Donald, you know knows
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: how to to win, even though you know we've been
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: out with the scleen um and I think that he's
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: he's competent and nine is a huge number. That's a
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: huge number. But um, I don't know. I wouldn't I
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: wouldn't go for that because Alice, I mean, they played
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: their worst. I mean I can't believe how bad that
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: first half was, and this is just a bad spot
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: for the Jets. They got a team that's coming and
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: really piste off in the Cowboys. So I mean, I
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: like your head back because this is a no one's
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be taking the Jet. So that's another too sharp
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: you're doing too sharp on the line for right, Okay,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: so I'll walk off that. Chad convinced me to walk
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: off Green Bay four and a half. But the other
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: one I do like. I mean, I feel like Kyler
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: Murray is now adjusted and I liked the Cardinals two
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: and a half. Dog Uh, I do I do like
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: that because I mean Atlanta has given up and they're terrible.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: But you're at the same time you're taking so you're
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: saying you trust him over Matt Ryan. So you don't
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: think Matt Ryan can drive the field the end of
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: the game to beat Arizona. I think they can. So
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: it's a public it's a good public play with Atlanta
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: this week. Um so I will be betting on the Cardinals,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: but I don't do I see what you're saying about
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: trusting him. But literally Andy Dalton missed Eifford in the
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: end zone. They should have won by four. So that
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: was one of those where we're back in the Cardinals
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: team that didn't deserve a Winum. So that's why the
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: public and the sharps right now all coming in on Atlanta. Yeah,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna be all right here here, here's the
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: other one. And then, Simon, I want you to like
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: we we've gone over every game almost so I get
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: a sense of what where your where your head is at? Um.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Two other games that I like. I like, uh, Minnesota
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: minus three over Philly, great spot. I think Philly still
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: like that pick? You like that pick? Yes, I actually
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: do like that pick. I think everyone's so high on Billy.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: I think Minnesota looked I think Minnesota looked good, but
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: I think they're really good. I don't know about that,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: but I just always in my mind Minnesota at home. Yeah,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: like they're they're really good at home. That defense, with
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: that crowd noise, and they don't ask much of Kirk.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Like Kirk has so many weapons around him. He just
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: plays the level they need him to. I like that
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: number a lot. So I got to take that pick
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: my the six for the Vikings. Alright, So let's walk
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: this through then, because we right now we're on Detroit
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: plus four and a half. We're on Jacksonville. We're on
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus eleven and a half, Kansas City minus five
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: and a half of Minnesota minus three. Tell us the
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: games that that you would be taking if you were
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: us right now, if not those five games the games
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: were missing that you feel better about. Um, I mean,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: we're probably gonna do it, but we don't have to
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: do it in ours. Um, we're probably gonna be taking
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: the Patriots on Thursday. And it's it's just one of
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: those where it's like I've seen this too many times
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: where I can see why other people are going to
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: be on the Giants, all their reasoning, everything behind it.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: But a shortened week, rookie quarterback going to New England. Um,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: I just see a thirty nothing game. I mean, it's
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: a nice, a nice New England teaser under game. Um,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: but we don't have to do that one, just because
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: we're even staying away for Thursdays. Um, We're we all
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: agreed right on Detroit, Like you don't want to do
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: green Bay right there. I like Detroit in that spot,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: so we can we can stick with that one like
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: green Bay. But but that Chad has convinced me that
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: Detroit is the right I don't I don't want to
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: do it because, um, I don't think we're gonna know
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: about what's up with Patrick Mahomes before before we put
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: our picks in. But that chief spot is such a
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: good spot. I mean, and it's only minus five, which
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: is I mean at home? You do you like everything
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: we have? I do? I like, I like, I mean,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: I like our picks. I'm I'm trying to find us
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: one more because last week we had a nice I
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: mean didn't it didn't matter any we end up switching
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: out the Cults for the Saints. Um, Like we said
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: last week, it's nice to have an extra one to
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: upset it. Well, I'm worried about that Jacksonville number. I
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: would like the Saints to be able to win, but
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville covers, um, so I'd like that to go to
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: two two and a half or something like that. So
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: that's why I want. I want that out if we
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: have a good alternate, right, Um I do. I do
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: like the Bucks, but like I get it, you guys
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: probably don't want to do a London game. I don't mind.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: I don't mind doing a London game. How you feel
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: about the Bucks there, Buccaneers? You really like Carolina there right, Well,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: obviously I just saw them play, so like in my system, Um,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: I have the bucks that minus two. I'm seeing some
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: places where they're up to plus two. Now um yeah
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: now now I'm trying to overthink it though, just because
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: it is a London game, but that this is such
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: a nice spot for the books. Wait, hold on one second.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: You have a four point differential in what it should
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: be versus what it is. Yeah, because people nothing against
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: this kid cap the Alans look good. I can't really
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: even talk down on with Carolina. Um, but but can
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: McCaffrey play out of his mind like he did less? Exactly?
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: Like I have more faith in these big plays in
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: London where no defenses have ever traveled well in London.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: So I like, I like God when I like, um,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: evans really really big in this game. But we can
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: make that just our like our I like our five
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: we got. I would take I would take Jacksonville out
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: and put in Tampa. If you like Jacksonville better, Yes, sure,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: al right, here's our five. Sweat h Sweaton, Winston Sill
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: you good time. We'll be up. We'll be up older
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: than that. My friend Detroit plus four and a half
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. It'll be plus one and a half, probably
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus eleven and a half, Kansas City minus five
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: and a half, Minnesota minus three. That's what we're doing.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: Let's cool, look at us three. Let's do this. Things
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: are really changing here slowly. But Shirley Simon, group think,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: group think. It's a powerful thing, all right, Simon Hunters
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: Professional Better, Dann Revel, Action Network Senior Writer Producer extraordinaire,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: thank you for coming on the podcast, folks. All right,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: that has been another episode of the Favorites from the
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: Action Network. I want to thank Bob Scucci from New Orleans.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: I want to thank Darren Ravel from the Action Network.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: I want to thank Simon Hunts a Professional Better. You
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: can download the podcast at Apple Podcast Rate Review, Subscribe.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: You can download at radio dot com look forward the Favorites,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: where you can also listen to the show Bob Scucci
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: and I do Sunday's twelve to one Eastern before kickoff
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: Action Network Countdown to Kickoff on the Radio dot com
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: app Radio dot com af go download that as well.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: Until next time. This has been the Favorites. Son Chad Noulman,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: Love you