Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bear Watch!🐻Bullish, But Here's The Risk🚨
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: You guys are going to hate this video, but what
- 0:02Speaker 1: I'm going to ask you to do is watch it anyway,
- 0:04Speaker 1: because you always need to be prepared for what could
- 0:07Speaker 1: be happening.
- 0:08Speaker 2: And today is a bear watch video.
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- 0:49Speaker 1: Tell them we sent you. I want to start off
- 0:51Speaker 1: today with a clip. And then I think you'll understand.
- 0:55Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 0:56Speaker 3: So I think this is the sixth day in a
- 0:58Speaker 3: row we're seeing Brent crude prices lower, which would be
- 1:01Speaker 3: the longest streak in more than a year. So obviously
- 1:03Speaker 3: long before the U.S.-Iran war started. There's the potential optimism
- 1:08Speaker 3: around Russia-Ukraine deal that you've just kind of analyzed ahead
- 1:11Speaker 3: of the winter. And there's also just the fact that
- 1:13Speaker 3: we might get something more positive in U.S.-Iran. That might
- 1:16Speaker 3: just be more flows. We're seeing more flows go through
- 1:18Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz. We're seeing Saudi Arabia possibly restore
- 1:22Speaker 3: its pipeline. So the point is that going into the midterms,
- 1:25Speaker 3: there is massive incentive out of the U.S. to do
- 1:28Speaker 3: something to get those oil prices lower. So at the moment,
- 1:30Speaker 3: the thing that's worrying me is that everything's kind of
- 1:32Speaker 3: going to plan in the last few weeks in markets.
- 1:34Speaker 2: Everything's looking very bullish.
- 1:36Speaker 3: Like I was kind of thinking that, you know, there
- 1:38Speaker 3: might be some dip in the second half that, you know,
- 1:40Speaker 3: that's the chance to get the year end rally. I
- 1:42Speaker 3: think we see the turn of the month into October
- 1:44Speaker 3: and people might be chasing this aggressively if nothing bad
- 1:47Speaker 3: happens soon.
- 1:48Speaker 2: All right, so that was Cudmore.
- 1:49Speaker 1: What the point I'm getting at is Bloomberg seems a
- 1:52Speaker 1: little bit over optimistic. And anytime I see signs like this,
- 1:56Speaker 1: along with some of the things I'll show you today,
- 1:58Speaker 1: I always wonder, is there a possibility here? You always
- 2:02Speaker 1: have to look at the potential diversion of a market.
- 2:06Speaker 1: And if you look at Bitcoin in general, it has
- 2:08Speaker 1: experienced the shallowest bear market in its history. Many Bitcoiners
- 2:12Speaker 1: are looking at this as bullish. And even if you
- 2:15Speaker 1: look at the four year cycle, what we have seen
- 2:17Speaker 1: in the past, is a little bit of dip just
- 2:21Speaker 1: after these four-year cycles occur. And that might be where
- 2:24Speaker 1: we are right now as Bitcoin holds out around 84K
- 2:28Speaker 1: after its retracement. So consider that along with what we're
- 2:33Speaker 1: seeing in terms of the crypto fear and greed. Remember
- 2:36Speaker 1: the last time we saw these dips before in markets,
- 2:40Speaker 1: it took a long time. to get back to a
- 2:44Speaker 1: market high. And that is a concern right now because
- 2:47Speaker 1: we have seen a massive move here from a bear
- 2:50Speaker 1: market into what could be either a fake pump or
- 2:55Speaker 1: a potential setup here for what we could see in
- 2:58Speaker 1: terms of a market downtrend. So these are the things
- 3:01Speaker 1: we're watching. If you just look at Bitcoin in general,
- 3:05Speaker 1: this was the area where we reached that bottom. This
- 3:08Speaker 1: was back in December of 2018. You saw that bottom
- 3:11Speaker 1: come in. And then we saw that massive move in
- 3:13Speaker 1: the market going all the way up to around 11K.
- 3:17Speaker 1: And then we saw the dip back down here literally
- 3:20Speaker 1: to around 3800. That's when people thought Bitcoin was dead.
- 3:24Speaker 1: That was after that initial pump. And then we saw that.
- 3:27Speaker 1: And then, of course, from there is when the true
- 3:30Speaker 1: crypto market began. And I think that's when everything changed. Now,
- 3:34Speaker 1: that might be the zone in which.
- 3:36Speaker 2: We're in right now.
- 3:37Speaker 1: And if you look at where we're holding right now
- 3:40Speaker 1: on diesel sales, because this is another major factor, because
- 3:43Speaker 1: this puts a lot of pressure on the economy.
- 3:46Speaker 2: U.S.
- 3:46Speaker 1: Diesel sales price continue to skyrocket literally to nosebleed sets.
- 3:51Speaker 1: And this impacts the U.S. economy in a very big way.
- 3:56Speaker 1: And some of the ways that it impacts the U.S.
- 3:58Speaker 2: Economy I'll get to.
- 3:59Speaker 1: But the point that I'm getting at here is that
- 4:01Speaker 1: Trump is now talking about banning U.S.
- 4:04Speaker 2: Diesel exports. Now, this is a big deal. because if
- 4:07Speaker 2: the U.S.
- 4:08Speaker 1: Bans exports to mainly preserve it for its own operations,
- 4:12Speaker 1: this starts to affect the global economy in a very,
- 4:16Speaker 1: very big way. Record diesel prices now are putting U.S.
- 4:20Speaker 1: farmers on alert. Trump, of course, is backing the export
- 4:23Speaker 1: ban to say, hey, we're going to keep it at home.
- 4:26Speaker 1: So that's the essential issue that is facing the energy
- 4:29Speaker 1: markets right now, and it's getting worse. And remember that
- 4:32Speaker 1: this takes a long time to correct. If you just
- 4:35Speaker 1: look at the flow of of some of these imports
- 4:39Speaker 1: that we get in terms of energy, much less if
- 4:41Speaker 1: we get an opening. The problem is it takes so
- 4:44Speaker 1: long to get this back into the pipeline. So understand
- 4:48Speaker 1: there's a lot in the works right now. Diesel at
- 4:51Speaker 1: 657 in Iowa. Why doesn't President Trump put an embargo
- 4:55Speaker 1: on diesel exports, which is what they're talking about, like
- 4:58Speaker 1: in the 70s where we put embargoes on ag products
- 5:01Speaker 1: because of food prices were inflated. This, of course, is
- 5:04Speaker 1: where Chuck Grassley is getting to Chuck Grassley, of course,
- 5:07Speaker 1: trying to protect the American farmers. And I think this
- 5:11Speaker 1: is the point that we are going to see. Now,
- 5:14Speaker 1: how does this all play into crypto? When you look
- 5:16Speaker 1: at crypto and you understand the problem with energy, because
- 5:20Speaker 1: energy starts to play into the economy, I think more
- 5:24Speaker 1: so than any other asset out there, especially on the
- 5:27Speaker 1: commodity side. And if this export ban takes place, you
- 5:32Speaker 1: now have a massive threat in the European market where.
- 5:36Speaker 2: Diesel could just literally go through the roof there.
- 5:39Speaker 1: And that changes a lot because assets, or I should
- 5:42Speaker 1: say allies, and the fact that we've got commodity prices
- 5:46Speaker 1: skyrocketing into a winter is a major problem.
- 5:50Speaker 2: So you have U.S.
- 5:52Speaker 1: Energy Secretary Chris Wright says diesel export ban would not
- 5:55Speaker 1: work and would raise gasoline and jet fuel prices. My
- 5:58Speaker 1: guess is we're going to continue to see jet fuel
- 6:01Speaker 1: and gas prices rise unless there is a major step
- 6:05Speaker 1: back out of Iran. hopefully that might be the case,
- 6:08Speaker 1: but right now it does not look as though that
- 6:10Speaker 1: is the issue.
- 6:11Speaker 2: If you look at.
- 6:12Speaker 1: Light crude over a trend line that we've been tracking
- 6:15Speaker 1: for some time, this goes all the way back into
- 6:17Speaker 1: April of 26 this year, and this downtrend that we saw,
- 6:22Speaker 1: and then of course the intersection that we are at
- 6:24Speaker 1: right now is the fact that we have broken through,
- 6:27Speaker 1: and right now this point is a point of reflection.
- 6:31Speaker 1: So either this starts to soften some, or we do
- 6:35Speaker 1: see more global macro impact on oil and energy, which
- 6:41Speaker 1: pushes this back above $ 100, which, of course, that's bad
- 6:44Speaker 1: for the economy in general. So you've got a trucker
- 6:48Speaker 1: strike now, potentially. This is October 1st. Signs are spreading
- 6:52Speaker 1: now that this is going to happen. I don't know
- 6:54Speaker 1: if it will, but if it does, that starts to
- 6:56Speaker 1: get into supply chain disruption. And these things, again, are
- 6:59Speaker 1: like a domino effect. They start to affect so many
- 7:02Speaker 1: other things downstream from it. And it takes a long
- 7:05Speaker 1: time for those things to come back. So that is
- 7:07Speaker 1: a big concern. And you've got people urging early Thanksgiving
- 7:12Speaker 1: travel booking, meaning the air flights are going to continue
- 7:15Speaker 1: to skyrocket. So if you're planning to travel, you need
- 7:18Speaker 1: to do it now because the prices aren't going to
- 7:20Speaker 1: get any better.
- 7:21Speaker 2: As we go forward.
- 7:22Speaker 1: Even Disney is getting into it almost with pre-inflation. Disney
- 7:27Speaker 1: is raising the price of Disney Plus again. So if
- 7:30Speaker 1: you're a Disney Plus user, Bye bye. Let's jump to
- 7:33Speaker 1: rate hikes real quick because I'm going to show you
- 7:35Speaker 1: something here. This was three quarter point hikes at 21
- 7:40Speaker 1: percent just holding off a few days ago. That, of course,
- 7:43Speaker 1: has now spiked to three at 31 percent. And the
- 7:47Speaker 1: two basis points, 50 basis points is now dropped down
- 7:51Speaker 1: to 56. So it's adjusting down kind of meeting the
- 7:54Speaker 1: middle here. I don't know how three rate hikes could
- 7:56Speaker 1: occur because one would have to happen at the end
- 7:59Speaker 1: of October, right before a midterm election. Most of the time,
- 8:04Speaker 1: that has not been the case out of the Fed.
- 8:06Speaker 1: They've tried to stay somewhat neutral in terms of politics.
- 8:09Speaker 1: This may be a different year, but I think most
- 8:11Speaker 1: people are looking at December as being in the next one.
- 8:14Speaker 1: Does that mean maybe it's a 50 basis point hike
- 8:17Speaker 1: in December?
- 8:17Speaker 2: Could be. But what the.
- 8:19Speaker 1: Point is, is that we are dealing with a very
- 8:22Speaker 1: unstable market as it sets forward, even though that the
- 8:26Speaker 1: regular TradFi market, I think, is looking at this as
- 8:29Speaker 1: a possible face-ripper. We had a clip on Tom Lee
- 8:32Speaker 1: yesterday kind of going in that direction. And right now
- 8:35Speaker 1: you have the Senate absolutely demolished because it looks as
- 8:39Speaker 1: though the Democrats are going to take both the House
- 8:42Speaker 1: and the Senate. This simply means absolute destruction in anything
- 8:47Speaker 1: that Trump has done that has been House and Senate controlled.
- 8:51Speaker 1: And let me explain on that. This is an example
- 8:53Speaker 1: of the SEC and the CFTC. Six of 10 seats
- 8:58Speaker 1: right now are empty. With the SEC and the CFTC,
- 9:01Speaker 1: you've got Hester Pierce leaving in November. That's going to
- 9:04Speaker 1: open that one up. Then, of course, you have Mark
- 9:06Speaker 1: Ueda and Paul Atkins kind of holding it. This could
- 9:09Speaker 1: be a position where the new administration, in terms of
- 9:13Speaker 1: House and Senate, start to populate the SEC again. And
- 9:17Speaker 1: look at the CFTC. Same situation here. We are dealing
- 9:22Speaker 1: now where two of these must go to a Democrat.
- 9:25Speaker 1: This is a must be in terms of the negotiations
- 9:28Speaker 1: that they've got.
- 9:29Speaker 3: So, all right.
- 9:29Speaker 2: So what that boils.
- 9:30Speaker 1: Down to is no more smooth sailing after midterms. This
- 9:34Speaker 1: is going to be a constant situation of negotiation and
- 9:37Speaker 1: trying to get these seats filled.
- 9:39Speaker 2: So we're not going to have.
- 9:40Speaker 1: These quick movements coming out of the CFTC and the SEC. Granted,
- 9:45Speaker 1: they've moved pretty quickly so far that it's kind of
- 9:47Speaker 1: set the market on fire. But I think they are
- 9:50Speaker 1: up against a big, big challenge moving forward of being
- 9:54Speaker 1: able to continue on this. Now, let's not forget the
- 9:57Speaker 1: biggest nemesis of crypto forever.
- 10:00Speaker 2: I still believe. Well, between Senator.
- 10:03Speaker 1: Warren and Gary Gensler, I'm not sure who I would
- 10:06Speaker 1: weigh in as the biggest nemesis, but Gensler could make
- 10:09Speaker 1: a return here.
- 10:11Speaker 2: It's very possible. But hey, he's doing a podcast now.
- 10:14Speaker 2: He's got 4.5 stars.
- 10:16Speaker 1: He's coming along here. People like it. I think you
- 10:19Speaker 1: should stick to podcasting. Now let's jump over to prediction
- 10:22Speaker 1: markets because this, of course, has been a little bit
- 10:24Speaker 1: of drama out there in the land of X. And
- 10:27Speaker 1: this was in reference to Cauchy employees talking about volume
- 10:31Speaker 1: in general. Benny came back in on the research of this.
- 10:35Speaker 1: Probably the single worst hit piece ever written about Cauchy
- 10:38Speaker 1: went out to the Wall Street Journal. This, of course,
- 10:41Speaker 1: was opted in. And the beautiful part of this was
- 10:45Speaker 1: what happened afterward. And that is that Elizabeth Warren has
- 10:48Speaker 1: now urged Tim Scott, the chair, to do a public
- 10:52Speaker 1: hearing on prediction markets. And the likelihood is it could be, again,
- 10:56Speaker 1: in the front of almost everything that's happening in D.C.,
- 11:00Speaker 1: which could put a lot of pressure on the markets
- 11:02Speaker 1: in general. Let's jump over to next month, possibly another
- 11:07Speaker 1: major month going forward in October, because you have the
- 11:10Speaker 1: launch of the DTCC. That's, of course, being on the
- 11:13Speaker 1: Canton network. This can go two ways. One way, and
- 11:16Speaker 1: I think both are bearish. One way, it's a success
- 11:20Speaker 1: and it takes away from the crypto market. If it's
- 11:24Speaker 1: not a success, that's also, I think, bearish because at
- 11:27Speaker 1: that point, most likely you're going to see some sort
- 11:30Speaker 1: of regulatory moat or moat development around the DTCC, which
- 11:34Speaker 1: would be bad for crypto and I think the markets
- 11:37Speaker 1: in general. So play it either way. That's the way
- 11:40Speaker 1: it could be coming at you. Now, I know you're
- 11:42Speaker 1: not going to like this video and I get that.
- 11:44Speaker 1: No thumbs down, please, guys. The point is, is we're
- 11:46Speaker 1: trying to give you the bear watch thesis of how
- 11:50Speaker 1: to understand what's going on. You have Bernie Sanders now
- 11:54Speaker 1: unofficially unveiling a ban on artificial superintelligence. This is part of,
- 12:00Speaker 1: I think, something even greater because this could put a
- 12:03Speaker 1: lot of pressure on what's happening within the deal with China.
- 12:07Speaker 1: China Xi is set to visit here next week with
- 12:11Speaker 1: President Trump. And I think that is going to start
- 12:14Speaker 1: to play out into how we go forward, both either
- 12:17Speaker 1: on a partnership, but especially in the AI race. You've
- 12:21Speaker 1: got Anthropic, which is planning to launch its IPO in November.
- 12:24Speaker 1: Interesting timing, despite after these AI concerns, it's all coming in.
- 12:29Speaker 1: And remember, this is set for a $ 2 trillion valuation.
- 12:33Speaker 1: One thing to remember too, I'm going to go back
- 12:35Speaker 1: to this tweet real quick. One thing to remember, this
- 12:37Speaker 1: $ 2 trillion valuation has a lot of similarities to SpaceX.
- 12:40Speaker 1: And remember, when SpaceX launched along with SK Hynix and CXMT,
- 12:45Speaker 1: many of those other chip-oriented stocks that were both outside
- 12:51Speaker 1: the U.S.
- 12:52Speaker 2: And within the U.S. took away from the crypto markets.
- 12:54Speaker 1: That's where most of the liquidity started to flow. So
- 12:57Speaker 1: that could be another devastating blow to crypto and this
- 13:00Speaker 1: current bull run that some people are anticipating that we
- 13:03Speaker 1: are in. Let me go to a poll real quick
- 13:05Speaker 1: because this kind of showcases something around where the mindset is.
- 13:10Speaker 1: And Ansem, one of the degens of degens, he put
- 13:14Speaker 1: this poll up. And if you look at where the
- 13:16Speaker 1: degens most likely center around when we do see AI moving,
- 13:22Speaker 1: you've got Claude as the number one consumer AI product.
- 13:25Speaker 1: So that means it's going to be the most mainstream
- 13:28Speaker 1: which means it could correlate to the most trading activity
- 13:31Speaker 1: around that ecosystem, whether it's tokenized, memes, you name it.
- 13:36Speaker 1: All of that could be leaning into clots. So that's
- 13:38Speaker 1: another factor to consider, guys. I want to play a
- 13:41Speaker 1: clip for you because this gets into probably the worst
- 13:46Speaker 1: situation that could be occurring in crypto right now, and
- 13:49Speaker 1: that is crypto taxes.
- 13:51Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 13:52Speaker 4: The bill is called the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act.
- 13:56Speaker 4: The wash sale rule would begin to apply to crypto.
- 14:00Speaker 4: Under current law, you can sell a coin at a loss,
- 14:04Speaker 4: claim the loss, and buy back the same coin right back.
- 14:08Speaker 4: Under this bill, if you buy the same coin or
- 14:11Speaker 4: anything substantially identical to it within 30 days before or
- 14:16Speaker 4: after the sale, you wouldn't be able to claim the
- 14:18Speaker 4: capital loss on your taxes. It washes out. So buying
- 14:22Speaker 4: a coffee with Bitcoin still would be a taxable event.
- 14:25Speaker 4: Staking didn't get its break. A separate staking bill introduced
- 14:30Speaker 4: in June would have let stakers wait to pay tax
- 14:33Speaker 4: on their rewards until they sell. That change did not
- 14:37Speaker 4: make it into this bill. So staking rewards would still
- 14:40Speaker 4: be taxed as income when you receive them. If the
- 14:44Speaker 4: House of Representatives passes it, It would still need to
- 14:47Speaker 4: pass the Senate and then be signed by the president.
- 14:50Speaker 4: And the House has already left Washington and isn't scheduled
- 14:53Speaker 4: to vote again until the November election. So we have
- 14:57Speaker 4: some time to wait. And this rule would apply to
- 14:59Speaker 4: sales made after September 14th, 2026. So if the bill
- 15:05Speaker 4: were ever to become law as written, it would actually
- 15:08Speaker 4: cover sales that you make today.
- 15:10Speaker 3: All right.
- 15:10Speaker 1: So you can see that there are issues there. that
- 15:14Speaker 1: are rolling through Congress right now.
- 15:15Speaker 2: This could affect crypto in.
- 15:17Speaker 1: A big, I think the wash sale rule is going
- 15:19Speaker 1: to be one of the biggest, and this will affect
- 15:21Speaker 1: how people play the crypto markets in general. Now there's
- 15:24Speaker 1: a handful of things in there that might work. We're
- 15:26Speaker 1: going to try to get David Kramer, who was the
- 15:28Speaker 1: clip we just played on the show to kind of
- 15:30Speaker 1: break this down because the likelihood of this getting through,
- 15:33Speaker 1: if they're able to get veto power in the house
- 15:36Speaker 1: and the Senate could be real.
- 15:38Speaker 2: So be on the lookout for that as well.
- 15:41Speaker 1: The biggest situation that could be brewing is quantum. And
- 15:45Speaker 1: quantum is setting right now at one year. This is
- 15:48Speaker 1: the new quantum clock. And I just want to say
- 15:50Speaker 1: something about this clock. It actually moves hyperactively, meaning it
- 15:56Speaker 1: actually jumps. So this isn't a real one year and
- 15:59Speaker 1: five months. This could accelerate as technology is accelerating. Obviously,
- 16:04Speaker 1: threat being already in place. We're already seeing chatbots actually
- 16:09Speaker 1: capable of breaking wallets today. The real question, this going
- 16:13Speaker 1: back to more of a doomsday event that could become
- 16:17Speaker 1: much bigger and much worse than I think a lot
- 16:19Speaker 1: of people are anticipating or prepared for. And let's take
- 16:23Speaker 1: a look at this because this is another bad thing
- 16:25Speaker 1: for Bitcoin. Bitcoin wallet awakens 14 years after Satoshi Nakamoto era.
- 16:30Speaker 1: This is a long dorm of Bitcoin wallet has moved
- 16:32Speaker 1: 100 Bitcoin after remaining untouched. for more than 14 years. Now,
- 16:36Speaker 1: either one, this Satoshi era wallet just decided to go
- 16:43Speaker 1: out and sell at 85K, or has it already been circumvented?
- 16:47Speaker 1: Has it already been hacked and it's just trying to
- 16:49Speaker 1: figure out a way, meaning these agents, and what we're
- 16:52Speaker 1: going to see within just AI integration around blockchain breaking
- 16:58Speaker 1: of many of these wallets? Is that just a matter
- 17:00Speaker 1: of time? So that's one to watch as well. Last up,
- 17:03Speaker 1: of course, is this right here. You've got Vitalik, who's
- 17:06Speaker 1: putting some pressure on none other than Vladimir Putin.
- 17:11Speaker 2: And here's the statement.
- 17:12Speaker 1: The goal is not to literally get Putin politely step
- 17:15Speaker 1: off his chair. The election is, of course, manipulated to hell.
- 17:19Speaker 1: This is, if you guys don't know, the elections happened
- 17:22Speaker 1: in Russia.
- 17:23Speaker 2: Very heavy on Putin.
- 17:25Speaker 1: Pro-war veterans that were put in place in what is
- 17:29Speaker 1: kind of like our House and Senate. And Vitalik goes
- 17:32Speaker 1: on to say, rather than the realistic goal is to
- 17:35Speaker 1: delegitimize the regime as much as possible, denying an internal cohesion,
- 17:42Speaker 1: it needs to pursue the total war path, which is
- 17:45Speaker 1: kind of where Russia, and I think to a certain extent,
- 17:47Speaker 1: some of Europe is already on. That's another concern that
- 17:51Speaker 1: That puts a lot of weight on the global market.
- 17:54Speaker 1: But the other issue here is Vitalik is taking on Putin.
- 18:00Speaker 1: This is a different level of challenges, especially when you
- 18:05Speaker 1: look at this.
- 18:06Speaker 2: So, all right.
- 18:06Speaker 1: So when, as we do this video, yes, it's a
- 18:09Speaker 1: bearish video in the sense of, we want you to
- 18:12Speaker 1: be aware of these kinds of things. I'm still very
- 18:14Speaker 1: bullish on the market in general. And I see there's
- 18:17Speaker 1: a lot of opportunities, more opportunities on the upside than
- 18:19Speaker 1: there are on the negative side, but these could potentially
- 18:23Speaker 1: trigger black swans. These kinds of things can create domino effects.
- 18:27Speaker 1: You always have to be prepared. We'll cover more on this,
- 18:30Speaker 1: so stay tuned. If you liked this video, hit like
- 18:39Speaker 1: and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join
- 18:42Speaker 1: our free private member group.
- 18:44Speaker 2: The link is in the description.