Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - 3 Stocks to Buy on the Dip - and 3 to Dump Fast + Stock Market News 18 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - 3 Stocks to Buy on the Dip - and 3 to Dump Fast + Stock Market News 18 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, welcome to this pre-Christmas, pre-easter, easter, easter live stream even.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through here in the next few minutes what stocks I'm actually buying and why, what stocks I would not hold on to, and what the real opportunity is in this period of crash, horror, uncertainty, house prices falling and everything else.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: And my goal is that you actually walk away from this with a bit of a wake-up call, but also with some real hardcore knowledge that'll help to make you a better investor and get you to where you want to get to.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: And, of course, winston's joining me here.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: There he is.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: He's very concerned about your portfolios and how red many of them are and how you guys are doing.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: And, yes, he really is barely awake, isn't he?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you and we'll jump straight into it.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: So, zillow, just put out this they're forecasting that home prices across the US are going to fall.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Now you might say, well, I'm mostly a stock investor.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Why do I care?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Well, it's all connected.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: One asset group goes down, everything else goes down.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: House prices are also connected to the stock market, and the only thing that's apparently going up is Rochester, some sort of wealthy suburb of somewhere or other, isn't it?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Everywhere else seems to be going down the south.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The Gulf areas seem to be particularly badly hit, according to Zillow.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Now, this sort of sums up no-transcript or not?
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Um, we have maximum uncertainty around.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: What's the government gonna do with regards to spending and taxation?
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Like worse than at any time in the last 40 years.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Us trade policy uncertainty is the highest it's ever been.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Like ever, I mean, you know, literally ever.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: There are native Indians who say this is worse than what we've ever seen.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: That's probably an appropriate remark, isn't it?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I'm going to get held off for that one.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Us regulation uncertainty is pretty much at peak levels.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I think 2010 was slightly higher, but this is also pretty bad, and this is why the market isn't doing what you wanted to do.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Oh, sorry, winston's there, apologies, I thought he was turned off.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Remove Winston, please.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Yes, so regulation uncertainty, maximum levels as well.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And this one thing the market hates and it's not bad news, it's not bad earnings, it's not bankruptcies, it's not a falling economy, it is uncertainty.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: It's the one thing that we can't price, the one thing that we can't put a multiple on.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: It's the one thing that makes us go.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do here, so I'm going to do nothing.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: And that's what the big money is doing, right, a lot of them are sitting on a lot of cash, right, we're sitting a lot of cash for for for those exact reasons.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: So what do you?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: What do you therefore do with that?
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Well, look, where there is a crash, there is basically an opportunity, always an opportunity, and I want to, in the next minutes, give you some of those opportunities and make you realize, when you fill in the gaps between where you're at right now and where you can be, life gets a heck of a lot better.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So I saw this chart here, and that's probably quite a small.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: People always ask me well, what level do we buy?
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So this here is probably one that a few people would disagree with.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: It's the S&P 500.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: S&p 500.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: And there's a purple line drawn in here, and it isn't what you think.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: That purple line.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: There is the 200-week moving average, so it's the average of the last four years.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So what you see is that on the really big dips I mean this year that was COVID I got a different pen color.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I don't like purple.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Does anybody like purple?
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: This year was 2016, which wasn't very pretty, if you remember that this year was the 2022 dip.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Those dips there's another one here, 2019, were around about that level of the 200 week moving average and then, crazily enough, we're actually fairly close to that.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So that sits, by the way, at around 4,700 points on the S&P.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Approximately 470 points on the SPY Might be a level you might want to write down.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: You might want to take a note of that.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Like, does that give you some thought about?
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe that's the point where I start buying the dip.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: If that's useful to you, put a little, put a one in the chat so I know that this is landing for you, and then I want to walk you through a bunch of individual stocks.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: But before we do that, I've been working on something for the last two weeks that I was going to put out later in the year and maybe three months down the road or something.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: But because of what's happening out there and given the many, many, many many messages that I've been getting from you guys in emails, on Twitter and obviously also in our community, I decided to pull that forward and thanks for all the ones here and I've been working on it all day today.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I'll work on this all day tomorrow, saturday.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: That's how I spend my Easter, because I actually enjoy this.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I'm very passionate about this because I want to make sure that we are ready for you.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So we're going to run a live educational session for you tomorrow and I want to teach you how to pick great long-term stocks so you bounce back from this crash, you retire sooner, because these things are really golden, freaking opportunities and they're right there in front of you.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: But you need to understand how this works.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: And there's, of course, also a big element about protecting your money, and we'll talk about that a lot here.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: But what I really really want to show you guys and some of you guys have been sending me kind messages here, like TJ, for example, saying thank you so much, felix.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: You've already saved me over $100,000.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Please give Winston my regards.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: And Winston says hello, don't you Winston?
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: There he is, and this is why I do this, because it's insanely gratifying.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: And well, the goal here is just to actually help you guys out.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to put a link in the chat for you so you can join me on Saturday.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I'll put the link in here, there we go, and I'll pin it to the chat as well so you can access it more easily, and we're going to take another 1,000 people into that live educational session tomorrow.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: We'll probably go for like two hours maybe an hour and a half, two hours depending on how many questions you guys have and I'll give you the actual criteria that the most successful stock investors look at.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: That separates you Well.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: That separates the fact from the noise, really, because there are really really good companies right now which are on sale, but don't rush quite yet into buying them, because join me tomorrow first, so you understand a lot more about timing, because timing does actually matter.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Wednesday session is at 11 am, new York time.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Felix Frenzelog slash webinar.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: It's an Easter special and, as I say, I'll teach you how to pick great long-term stocks.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you how to retire sooner.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: I'll help you retire better.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I'll help you retire better.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: And it's literally messages like I screenshot another one here as well from C, which is really really nice.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I'm so happy I listened to you inside of my hands.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: These are people who didn't buy the dip when we told them not to like four weeks ago, right?
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So we've had a lot of chat like this over the last probably six to eight weeks now inside the community and it's what's making the difference in people's lives.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: So, if you're joining me on Saturday morning, please write, let's go in the chat and I know that you'll be there and we're going to have some fun.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: We're going to mix your portfolio.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Let's make it.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Should we make it great again?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Is that joke coming too soon?
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Probably is at the moment, isn't it?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: But it great again?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Is that such a coming too soon?
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Probably is at the moment, isn't it?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: But yeah, let's write in the chat.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: If you are joining me on saturday and, um, all right, let's go in there and I'll teach you how to turn this crash into gold.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: This is a golden opportunity.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: It's a golden retriever opportunity.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Even, um, and and honestly, I wake up every day smiling like, honestly, I look at the market and I go this is just brilliant, isn't?
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: It's just lasting longer than I thought.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: We're going to make so much money.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: It's absolutely fantastic.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: So I know we focus a lot on loving all the let's goes there.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I know we focus a lot on let me get to the stock picks in just a second.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: We focus a lot here on trading because that's sort of my passion, but literally a little more than half of my money is sitting in long-term stocks and therefore that's something I studied for many, many years and I've got a lot of mentors in that space.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So we actually know what works.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: We know what makes a stock a good stock, and I'm going to teach you exactly that tomorrow, 11 am New York time.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Here's another one, elizabeth, saying I've shifted from being driven by FOMO to becoming a smarter, more rational investor.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Once again, thank you for caring.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: It's such a blessing and that's amazing, and that's really what it's all about.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: So there it is, felix Frenzel Boxoff Webinar.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Come and join us tomorrow.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Live, put LFG in the chat, if you are.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: What's the F in LFG?
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: I know what you're trying to do there.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, and walk you through a couple of stocks here.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: And you never heard of these stocks.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: You're not going to like these stocks and if you go and buy these stocks today, you're probably going to lose money.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Because you don't know why I'm buying them and you don't know when I'm going to sell them, and there are rules to that.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I don't make it up on the fly.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I don't buy something and say, oh, let's see how it does, let's see if it goes well and if it doesn't, I'll think about it.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Or, if it goes really well, should I sell?
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Should I buy?
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Like?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: That is where I came from and that's where every single investor starts.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So if you're there, that makes you normal.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: But you can learn the rules.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: You can learn the difference, loving all the LFGs there, and that's how we get to being consistently profitable, consistently retired, which is really what the goal is here, right?
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So I'm not buying tech at the moment.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: In fact, I'll tell you in a second my absolute hate list of what I really, really wouldn't own at the moment.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I'm buying stuff like this gently and gradually and slowly and no, this is not financial advice.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Don't just run out and buy it because some chap on YouTube told you he's liking this stock.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: This is the California Water Service Group Holding.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Exciting, isn't it?
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: The ticker is CWT.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: What do they do?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: It's the second largest regulated water utility in the US, if I'm correct, obviously, california.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: It's a pretty decent business.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Surprisingly, they grew revenues about 30% last year, which is astounding, and they've actually made money.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And if you've been following me for a little while and some of you guys, I appreciate, are in the program and you saw this one a week ago.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: These are the sort of zigzag lines that we look for, right.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: We look for these patterns and then we look for breakouts above those patterns and that's exactly what we're seeing there.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So it like ticks all the boxes and if you want to look a little bit on the inside of that company and we'll look at that in more detail tomorrow as well you can see that their profit margins here are really really picking up significantly.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So we like it from a momentum timing point of view and we like it from a fundamental point of view, and for me, those two things need to coincide.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: That's how we make money.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So that's one that I bought this week.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Has anybody bought CWT before?
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: If there's a single soul out there who bought CWT before, I'll owe you a drink.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: I think scott says the market's closed today, by the way, is it?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Is it really okay?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Well, what are we going to do with ourselves?
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: What are we going to do with ourselves?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Well, it's, it's good.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: It gives us a little bit more time to, like you know, chew things over ever technologies.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I didn't know the business.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I just saw the chart and I was like this looks pretty interesting.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: This looks actually very, very interesting.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: It had a massive, massive rally up here, starting in March of 2025.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Very few things rallied in March of 2025.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: And before that they had this beautiful consolidation period here.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: So for me, again, this ticks a lot of the boxes from a chart point of view, and I appreciate some of you are still thinking charts are a little gobbledygook.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I used to think that too, but they're not.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: They're amazing.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: They make us a lot of money.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: These guys make LiDAR, and I don't know if we need that technology, but Daimler gives them a billion dollars in business a year or something.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: So for trucking, it seems we are using LiDAR, and maybe that's a good idea because the trucks break more slowly or something.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: I don't really know.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, water is water indeed.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So that's one I'm looking at and it's got a very nice little chart pattern there Underneath it.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, a business that's early, but improving, but definitely early.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So that's one.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: And again, I don't look at that because I fell in love with a stock.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: I probably won't be owning this in 10 years time.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna tell my grandchildren about it.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: No, it's just one of those things that we buy to make money from.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: And here's the third one.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Right, I promised you three.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Has anybody heard of that last stock before?
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Probably not, right, travis, you're going to send me my water watch list.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Was that a breakout, sir Scott?
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: The last one, oh, you mean in trade vision?
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: No, the stock's too small.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: We didn't screen for this one because it's a pretty, pretty random one.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I mean it's a.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: It was trading at two dollars 50, is trading at seven dollars, 30 right now.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Um, but yeah, bigly, bigly volume on on the way up, um, everything like this.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: At moment I'm being cautious.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Here's another one.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Has anybody heard of this one?
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Skina resources limited.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: If you heard of that one, any of my, my snow mexicans tuning in today, maybe you've heard of it.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: They're all running off now they're offended and you sort of see this kind of pattern here.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Why am I drawing these lines?
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Because there is a proximate pattern here which is a bullish consolidation, and then we exceeded at the top here that high, we exceeded that, we bounced up, and that's when I, when I, bought a little bit of it and we did that on pretty, pretty bigly volume, by the way, um, which is which is good.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: So what do they do?
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Mining, mining of minerals in um, good old Canada.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Felix, please mention Oliver and Emily.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: They're fascinated by you, fascinated in a good way or fascinated in a I think he belongs in a zoo sort of a way.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Here's Winston.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're fascinated by Winston too.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Winston too.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: So this is another one.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: And if you watch the old tariff thing, the US is very, very reliant on minerals and so on from certain parts of the world we shan't mention, and they like the Canadians just a little bit better.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: So I think mining in North America is also, from that point of view, doing well, which is probably also why the chart's doing well.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Do we have fundamentals for those?
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: No, I actually didn't screenshot them again, it's very early, but I think, yeah, what I'm trying to say to you is, outside of this world, this bubble of we talk about nvidia and palantir and sofa and all the popular stuff, there is a world of opportunity that, if you know how to look for the popular stuff, there is a world of opportunity that if you know how to look for companies that no one's heard of.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: They might be really boring, but they make us money.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: And ultimately you've got to ask yourself why do you invest?
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Is it because you want to tell people you made a lot of money with Tesla or Nvidia or whatever.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: No, ultimately it's because you want to have more money, because more money gives you what.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: It gives you options.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: It gives you the options to quit, it gives you the options to retire, it gives you the options to travel, it gives you the options to do lovely things for the people you love and care about.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: And you know that is ultimately our driver, and I think we need to remind ourselves of that that we are not here because we love a particular stock.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Don't fall in love with the stocks.