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Normally Podcast: Understanding the US-Iran Conflict · Normally

0:04
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, we are back on normally the show with
0:06
Speaker 1: normalist takes, but the news gets weird. I am Mary
0:08
Speaker 1: Catherine ham Well.
0:10
Speaker 2: I am Colonel Markolitz, and we had another weekend. You know,
0:15
Speaker 2: when I got the text from you, I already had
0:17
Speaker 2: already seen that the US had bombed. I ran, but
0:20
Speaker 2: I almost was like, oh my god, did something else happened.
0:23
Speaker 1: No, that's that's the only one I was referring to
0:26
Speaker 1: at that moment. Yeah, I was. I had a fun,
0:31
Speaker 1: exciting Friday because I was on The Five, which is
0:33
Speaker 1: a programming note. I should have given our listeners and
0:36
Speaker 1: forgot about it.
0:37
Speaker 2: And look, I heard from friends. I heard your your
0:41
Speaker 2: co host, Mary Katherine was on the five. I was like, oh,
0:43
Speaker 2: that's amazing.
0:45
Speaker 1: And I'm not going to say that I convinced the
0:47
Speaker 1: President on the five, but I will note the timing
0:50
Speaker 1: that twenty four hours later this decision was made.
0:53
Speaker 3: You know, yes, Mary, as the results, I will say,
0:58
Speaker 3: and I think I've said this on the show, but
1:00
Speaker 3: I was actually very mixed on the US striking and
1:03
Speaker 3: I had.
1:04
Speaker 2: You know, reasons for that. I didn't think it would
1:06
Speaker 2: lead to World War three. That wasn't one of them.
1:07
Speaker 2: I didn't think it meant American boots on the ground,
1:10
Speaker 2: But for one thing, I wanted Israel to really show
1:12
Speaker 2: the world that they can handle themselves. And I think
1:15
Speaker 2: that they absolutely can. Israel has a best friend in
1:18
Speaker 2: the White House right now, but they can't, you know,
1:21
Speaker 2: rely on American political whims. I think if Democrats gets elected,
1:26
Speaker 2: Democrats are getting progressively more anti Israel, they won't necessarily
1:31
Speaker 2: be able to rely on America. I want them to
1:33
Speaker 2: be able to handle themselves. And look they have. I
1:35
Speaker 2: you know, I when explaining what's going on, and I
1:38
Speaker 2: ran to my teen, I said, Israel brought them to
1:41
Speaker 2: their knees and America kicked them in the teeth. That's
1:44
Speaker 2: like what I see it as. Having said all that,
1:47
Speaker 2: this is what allies do. And when the US, when
1:51
Speaker 2: you know, had their global wars on terror, European allies participated,
1:56
Speaker 2: even though did we need them to participate, not so much.
1:59
Speaker 2: But this is what allies do. And so I liked
2:02
Speaker 2: seeing America stand by Israel and help in times of trouble.
2:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let me just do the rundown real quick.
2:10
Speaker 1: The US military carried out its attack against Iran's nuclear
2:13
Speaker 1: program early on Sunday local time. It was code named
2:16
Speaker 1: Operation Midnight Hammer. The mission involved seven B two Spirit bombers.
2:21
Speaker 2: What now, Operation Hammer? I mean it may be with
2:24
Speaker 2: you do not think full credit.
2:27
Speaker 1: That's a really good point, Carol. Midnight Hammer. The mission
2:31
Speaker 1: involved seven B two Spirit bombers. Those are the stealth
2:33
Speaker 1: bombers that you guys have seen, perhaps at flyovers in
2:36
Speaker 1: the past, carrying massive thirty thousand pound bunker buster bombs
2:40
Speaker 1: known as massive ordnance penetrators. It appears that a dozen
2:43
Speaker 1: of the bombs were used to strike Iran's deeply buried
2:45
Speaker 1: enrichment site at FORDOH or FORDAO. I'm sure exactly which
2:48
Speaker 1: way to say it. Two weapons were also used to
2:51
Speaker 1: strike an underground centrifuge facility at Iran's main enrichment site
2:54
Speaker 1: and Aton's. Concurrent with the bombings, a US submarine submarine
2:58
Speaker 1: launched more than two dozen cruise missiles. Those weapons hit
3:00
Speaker 1: buildings and tunnels, interests as a third nuclear site Isfahan. First,
3:07
Speaker 1: can I say, because I've said before, I'm starved for
3:11
Speaker 1: institutions that do what they're supposed to do extremely well.
3:16
Speaker 1: This mission did what it was supposed to do extremely well.
3:21
Speaker 1: No leaks, no operational security problems went thirty hour round
3:28
Speaker 1: trip into Iran bomb three sites left, as the DoD
3:35
Speaker 1: says in a press conference, not a shot fired at them,
3:38
Speaker 1: no awareness that they were there. They refueled twice in
3:42
Speaker 1: the air. This is the way this is supposed to work,
3:46
Speaker 1: and to see it be successful in that way is
3:50
Speaker 1: just The military is the institution. I have the motion
3:53
Speaker 1: confidence of all of ours. But to watch them succeed
3:56
Speaker 1: is good. To watch them succeed on behalf of an
3:59
Speaker 1: ally who has been succeeding in surprising ways for the
4:03
Speaker 1: last two years, is also good. And I just think
4:06
Speaker 1: this is a I'm glad I don't have to make
4:09
Speaker 1: these decisions because I, like you, was like, I think
4:13
Speaker 1: this is a great window of opportunity. And also, what's
4:15
Speaker 1: the fallout, no pun intended? Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, yeap.
4:22
Speaker 1: Those saying that the strike is bad use all sorts
4:25
Speaker 1: of arguments that make me conclude they obviously can't have
4:32
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. They're like, they're going to retaliate in
4:33
Speaker 1: all these horrible ways, and I'm like.
4:35
Speaker 2: Well, yes, yes, that makes no sense to me. Is
4:39
Speaker 2: that all of the arguments would be so much worse
4:43
Speaker 2: with nuclear weapons, and you know, a lot of the
4:46
Speaker 2: people who talk about so they end up saying Iran's
4:50
Speaker 2: not trying to get a nuclear weapon, which is obviously untrue.
4:53
Speaker 2: And we're going to play a clip right now from
4:54
Speaker 2: Marco Ruby in a second, but I just want to
4:56
Speaker 2: go back to the one point you made about operational security.
5:00
Speaker 2: Jennifer Griffin at Fox News said, in the past eighteen years,
5:03
Speaker 2: I've never seen this level of operational security at the Pentagon,
5:07
Speaker 2: and this is really a credit to Pete Hegseth, who
5:11
Speaker 2: had a really rocket start in this administration. But seeing
5:15
Speaker 2: him and Marco Rubio and you know, jd Vance behind
5:19
Speaker 2: the president, I was at peace. I felt very like
5:23
Speaker 2: these people have it under control. I especially, I mean
5:27
Speaker 2: Hegseth and Rubio to me are just pinnacle of what's
5:33
Speaker 2: going on in this administration and the absolute security I
5:37
Speaker 2: feel when I see them. All Right, let's roll the
5:40
Speaker 2: Marco Rubio clip about whether or not Iran actually wanted
5:44
Speaker 2: to obtain nukes.
5:46
Speaker 4: Are you saying there that the United States did not
5:49
Speaker 4: see intelligence that the Supreme Leader had ordered weaponization.
5:56
Speaker 5: That's irrelevant. I think that question being asked on the media,
5:59
Speaker 5: that's an irrelevant, and that me.
6:01
Speaker 4: Point in US intelligence assessment. You know it's not, yes,
6:04
Speaker 4: it was, that's a political decisions.
6:06
Speaker 5: Well I know that better than you know that, and
6:07
Speaker 5: I know that that's not the case.
6:08
Speaker 4: But i'm whether the order was given and.
6:11
Speaker 5: The people who say that it doesn't matter if the
6:13
Speaker 5: order was given. They have everything they need to build
6:15
Speaker 5: nuclear weapons. Why would you bury Why would you bury
6:18
Speaker 5: things in a mountain three hundred feet under the ground,
6:20
Speaker 5: Why would you bury six Why do they have sixty
6:22
Speaker 5: percent in rich uranium? You don't need sixty percent in
6:24
Speaker 5: rich You are the only countries in the world that
6:26
Speaker 5: have uranium at sixty percent are countries that have nuclear
6:29
Speaker 5: weapons because it can quickly make it ninety They have
6:32
Speaker 5: all the elements they have. Why are they Why do
6:34
Speaker 5: they have a space program? Is Ron going to go
6:36
Speaker 5: to the moon? No, they're trying to build an ICBM.
6:38
Speaker 4: No.
6:38
Speaker 1: But that's a question.
6:39
Speaker 4: That's a question, that's a question of intent. And you
6:41
Speaker 4: know in the intelligence assessment that it was that Iran
6:44
Speaker 4: wanted to be a threshold.
6:45
Speaker 1: See you use thos.
6:47
Speaker 4: I'm talking about what the intelligence March assessment. And that's
6:51
Speaker 4: why I was asking you if you know something.
6:52
Speaker 1: More from it.
6:53
Speaker 5: That's also an inaccurate representation of it. That's an accurate
6:56
Speaker 5: representation of it. That's not how intelligence is read. That's
6:59
Speaker 5: now how intelligence is used. Here's what the whole world knows.
7:02
Speaker 5: Forget about intelligence, what the IAEA knows. They are enriching
7:06
Speaker 5: uranium well beyond anything you need for a civil nuclear program.
7:12
Speaker 5: So why would you enrich uranium at sixty percent if
7:15
Speaker 5: you don't intend to one day use it to take
7:17
Speaker 5: it to ninety and build a weapon. Why are you
7:19
Speaker 5: developing ICBMs? Why do you have eight thousand short range
7:22
Speaker 5: missiles in two to three thousand long mid range missiles
7:26
Speaker 5: that you continue to develop. Why do you do all
7:28
Speaker 5: these things and just everything they need for a nuclear weapon.
7:31
Speaker 5: They have the delivery mechanisms, they have the enrichment capability,
7:34
Speaker 5: they have the highly enriched.
7:35
Speaker 1: Uranium that is stored.
7:36
Speaker 5: That's all we need to see.
7:37
Speaker 2: How does she ask him questions like that and not
7:41
Speaker 2: think this is going to be the result, just so
7:44
Speaker 2: on point. He knows his stuff so backwards and forwards.
7:48
Speaker 2: This is why he has seventeen jobs in our government
7:51
Speaker 2: and the IAEA.
7:52
Speaker 1: The fact that he's using the International Atomic Energy Agency,
7:55
Speaker 1: which is of course, this intergovernmental agency that is headquartered
8:00
Speaker 1: in Vienna. It's all the things the Libs love, and
8:03
Speaker 1: the IAEA is the source for the sixty percent number,
8:07
Speaker 1: which makes a civilian nuclear program, an energy nuclear program
8:12
Speaker 1: not make any sense because as he said, sixty percent
8:15
Speaker 1: is way above what you would need for that, and
8:17
Speaker 1: that's why they put it three stories underground. I just
8:21
Speaker 1: I think that I think that Trump saw an opportunity
8:28
Speaker 1: to join that in YAHOO in a generational, once in
8:33
Speaker 1: a lifetime chance at changing the face of the Middle
8:36
Speaker 1: East and at getting to a place where, as he says,
8:40
Speaker 1: sometimes you need toughness for peace, which is his own
8:44
Speaker 1: spend on peace strength. He saw this as an opportunity
8:49
Speaker 1: to do that, and that has been his strength in
8:52
Speaker 1: the Middle East in the past, when he moved the embassy,
8:56
Speaker 1: right when he went after solo money. He rejects the
8:59
Speaker 1: sort of Georgetown Foreign Service. Yes, he does hey on
9:05
Speaker 1: foreign policy, and that consensus has been a trap in
9:10
Speaker 1: many cases for presidents in the past. And so he's
9:13
Speaker 1: done these things that have not ignited World Wars three
9:16
Speaker 1: when everyone told us they would. And I do think
9:19
Speaker 1: it's a strength of his CNN was saying I was
9:21
Speaker 1: watching shortly after his speech and one reporter was saying,
9:25
Speaker 1: we know, the thing about the Trump White House is
9:27
Speaker 1: very insular, and they don't talk to the same people
9:29
Speaker 1: that you would normally talk to when you're contemplating something
9:32
Speaker 1: like this, and I was like, yes, that is the point,
9:35
Speaker 1: for better or worse, whether you disagree with him or
9:37
Speaker 1: agree with him on this, that's the point of this
9:39
Speaker 1: administration is to not talk to the same people.
9:42
Speaker 2: Yep, Yep, that's exactly it. Trump is his own thing,
9:46
Speaker 2: and we like that about him in some cases. Obviously
9:50
Speaker 2: we have problems with it and others. But this was
9:52
Speaker 2: a classic Trump decision making based on what he knows
9:57
Speaker 2: and has got, what he has gotten from competent people
10:01
Speaker 2: around him. And I can't possibly praise him enough in
10:07
Speaker 2: times like this. I think this is really where he shines.
10:10
Speaker 2: I want to say that one of the normy concerns
10:13
Speaker 2: I've heard is that Iran will now look at ways
10:16
Speaker 2: to hit America. What I want people to understand is
10:20
Speaker 2: Iran is always looking for ways to hit America. It
10:23
Speaker 2: started in nineteen seventy nine, taking of sixty six American
10:26
Speaker 2: hostages for two years, but there have been numerous other
10:29
Speaker 2: attacks throughout the years. A nineteen eighty three truck bomb
10:32
Speaker 2: at our military base killed two hundred and twenty US
10:35
Speaker 2: Marines and twenty one other service personnel in Beirut, Various
10:39
Speaker 2: murders of our service people in Iraq during that war.
10:43
Speaker 2: It was Iranian militias would come in and kill our people.
10:46
Speaker 2: And last November, the US Justice Department announced charges against
10:51
Speaker 2: an Iranian national and two American accomplices for plotting to
10:55
Speaker 2: assassinate President Trump. I feel like that story, even Tucker
10:59
Speaker 2: Carlson said, you know, if that was true, would be
11:01
Speaker 2: a front page news. The fact that it wasn't front
11:04
Speaker 2: page news that our Justice Department announced charges. This isn't
11:08
Speaker 2: like we heard a rumor. It's just it's unclear to
11:12
Speaker 2: Americans that this has been going on. I feel like
11:16
Speaker 2: a lot of people feel like we're in a war
11:18
Speaker 2: with Iran now, but they've been in a war with
11:21
Speaker 2: us for decades, and important to understand that nobody wants
11:26
Speaker 2: a hot war, nobody wants more interactions with the Iranian regime,
11:31
Speaker 2: but they have been plotting and trying this on us
11:35
Speaker 2: for literally decades.
11:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, Tommy Vietor, who is an Obama bro which is
11:41
Speaker 1: of a completely opposite philosophy on Iran said, Iran might
11:45
Speaker 1: retaliate today, tomorrow, or in months or a year from now.
11:48
Speaker 1: Aurana its proxies might blow up a bus filled with
11:50
Speaker 1: American tourist in Cyprus. No one knows what comes next.
11:53
Speaker 1: Bombing around started something that we no longer have the
11:56
Speaker 1: capacity to predict or contain. I said, Siri, please describe
11:59
Speaker 1: our behavior from nineteen seventy nine until now right, that
12:03
Speaker 1: was the state of play already. And because they do
12:06
Speaker 1: war through terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hesbula and the Huties,
12:10
Speaker 1: sometimes people don't recognize that as Iran. Marjorie Taylor Green
12:15
Speaker 1: was saying, I don't know anyone who's been injured by Iran,
12:17
Speaker 1: and I was like, yes, you do, yes, because there's
12:19
Speaker 1: tons of soldiers in the State of Georgia who have
12:22
Speaker 1: been injured or killed by Iranian proxies. That's a really
12:26
Speaker 1: important thing to remember. And I think the state of
12:29
Speaker 1: play now minus nuclear capabilities and having destroyed much of that.
12:34
Speaker 1: We don't have the exact damage assessments at this point,
12:37
Speaker 1: but having destroyed much of that, we are undoubtedly safer
12:42
Speaker 1: with this same regime not having the nuclear capabilities, then
12:45
Speaker 1: having it, then you get to the question of like
12:48
Speaker 1: is this Libya and will it become an unstable region
12:52
Speaker 1: for that reason, But again I think even unstable without
12:57
Speaker 1: nuclear capabilities is better than what.
12:59
Speaker 2: We have right And also about the proxies. There's a
13:03
Speaker 2: really excellent article I think it was in Yesterday's Wall
13:06
Speaker 2: Street Journal by Elliott Kaufman. It's called Benjamin Nyahoo versus
13:10
Speaker 2: Kassem Solimani. And the part that I want people to
13:14
Speaker 2: know is this. Three months before the twenty twenty US
13:17
Speaker 2: killing of Kassam Solmani, the legendary Kuds Force commander, laid
13:22
Speaker 2: out his life's work. Quote. This is a quote from Salamani.
13:26
Speaker 2: I have assembled for you six armies outside Iran, and
13:29
Speaker 2: I've created a corridor fifteen hundred kilometers long and a
13:31
Speaker 2: thousand kilometers wide all the way to the shores of
13:34
Speaker 2: the Mediterranean. Salamani told Iran's army chiefs. Any enemy that
13:38
Speaker 2: decides to fight against Islamic revolution and against the sacred
13:41
Speaker 2: regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran will have to
13:44
Speaker 2: go through these six armies. It won't be able to
13:46
Speaker 2: do so. And Elliott writes, Yet Israel did rather than
13:50
Speaker 2: circumvent Solimani's strategy, Jerusalem has s bought Tehran on its
13:54
Speaker 2: own terms of Solomoni six armies. Only the Hutis and
13:58
Speaker 2: Iraq's popular mobilizations have escaped. Israel fought through Hamas Islamic
14:03
Speaker 2: Jihad has Bella, wiping out their leadership and slicing up
14:06
Speaker 2: their missile arsenals, leaving the a Sad regime in Syria
14:09
Speaker 2: to crumble without support. The proxies mattered, and again our
14:15
Speaker 2: alliance with Israel matters. That we had the same goal
14:18
Speaker 2: of taking out the Iranian nuclear program, and in order
14:22
Speaker 2: to do that, Israel had to fight through these armies first.
14:25
Speaker 2: That is what allyship should be about. That is what
14:29
Speaker 2: allies do for each other.
14:31
Speaker 1: Well and from the safety perspective back home. And that's
14:35
Speaker 1: why this huge window, no not huge window, a small
14:38
Speaker 1: window of opportunity, because if you leave them to their
14:40
Speaker 1: own devices, they will rebuild all of those missile capabilities
14:44
Speaker 1: that had just been taken out by Israel, which made
14:46
Speaker 1: this much safer to attempt. They're weaker than they've ever
14:50
Speaker 1: been because of Israel's work. We didn't have to do
14:53
Speaker 1: a lot of that work. Israel did almost all of it.
14:57
Speaker 1: We have capabilities to do this last part. You can
15:00
Speaker 1: go deep into the bunkers with these massive ordinance penetrators,
15:03
Speaker 1: which I believe this is the first time they've been
15:05
Speaker 1: used for the thing they're supposed to be used for,
15:09
Speaker 1: and at this moment they were quite possibly weaker than
15:12
Speaker 1: they will ever be in the future because they hadn't
15:15
Speaker 1: begun to rebuild those capacities. So again I believe, I
15:20
Speaker 1: know there are people who don't. There's a completely different
15:22
Speaker 1: philosophy from the Tommy Vturs of the world that if
15:25
Speaker 1: you just talk to these people and you give them
15:27
Speaker 1: a bunch of money, and you let Iranian assets sit
15:30
Speaker 1: inside the American government and influence people, and you open
15:33
Speaker 1: the border to whoever you want to for four years
15:36
Speaker 1: to let unvetted people come in and like maybe start
15:38
Speaker 1: sleep or cells, that that will succeed in bringing safety.
15:41
Speaker 1: But to me, that doesn't look like peace. That looks
15:45
Speaker 1: like danger, and taking out this operation in a successful
15:49
Speaker 1: way looks a lot more close to peace.
15:52
Speaker 2: Exactly. It is a more peaceful time in the Middle
15:56
Speaker 2: East today because of Americans actions over the weekend. Anybody
16:00
Speaker 2: who disagrees with that is simply wrong. It's again, it
16:05
Speaker 2: may not have seemed like we were at war with
16:07
Speaker 2: i Ran all along, but we have been, and that's
16:11
Speaker 2: a reality that we have to face.
16:13
Speaker 1: I'm going to throw this one out there because i
16:16
Speaker 1: just want to give it some space. I am not
16:20
Speaker 1: of the mind that you need that you need congressional
16:23
Speaker 1: approval for a bombing run. I don't think that's ever
16:26
Speaker 1: been the case in my lifetime. But some are making
16:29
Speaker 1: that argument now, some of them. There are some people
16:33
Speaker 1: who are making that who have been consistent on it
16:35
Speaker 1: for many years. There are some who are making that
16:37
Speaker 1: argument who think it's unconstitutional when Trump does a bombing
16:40
Speaker 1: run without congressional approval, but not when Obama did a
16:43
Speaker 1: bombing run that congressional approval. Which is that's Nancy Pelosi's position,
16:48
Speaker 1: is that Libya good.
16:51
Speaker 2: This bad. Yeah. There's also the fact that we last
16:56
Speaker 2: month bombed the Houtis for weeks, for like weeks, nobody
17:00
Speaker 2: said anything. Is it just because this involves Israel? Is
17:05
Speaker 2: it just that this is a bigger power? But I
17:08
Speaker 2: think Iran has been exposed as not being this superpower
17:13
Speaker 2: that we were all worried it was becoming. And again
17:16
Speaker 2: you know, with the nuclear program, it would have been
17:18
Speaker 2: a different story. But we've done these kinds of bombings
17:23
Speaker 2: without congressional approval. The thing is, I would love for
17:26
Speaker 2: Congress to go back to being the you know, the
17:29
Speaker 2: permission giver for all kinds of things. But you can't.
17:32
Speaker 2: Don't tell me you're starting right now. Don't tell me
17:35
Speaker 2: this is the one that you need to This is
17:38
Speaker 2: the one that we need permission for. All the other
17:40
Speaker 2: ones were irrelevant. I just don't buy it.
17:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't either. I do think it seems like
17:48
Speaker 1: the rift that we addressed last week, which we noted,
17:52
Speaker 1: happens mostly at like upper level policy discussions and or
17:56
Speaker 1: online instead of in the real world. I think that
17:59
Speaker 1: will remain the case case. If this was a successful mission,
18:02
Speaker 1: which you know that already seems so by being undetected
18:05
Speaker 1: and everybody getting home safe, if it was also successful
18:10
Speaker 1: in reaching you know, the goal that we wanted to reach.
18:13
Speaker 1: American voters largely have no issue with that, right. They
18:17
Speaker 1: are pro pro as I call it Trump's doctrine of
18:20
Speaker 1: occasional belicosity, like I'm just going to shoot somebody and
18:24
Speaker 1: then I'm going to come home, Like he's not interested
18:26
Speaker 1: in the second part. Now he truthed about regime change. Right,
18:29
Speaker 1: he got people a little nervous. But what he's saying
18:35
Speaker 1: is okay, Iranian people, you can make Iran great again.
18:39
Speaker 1: In I Ga Mega his.
18:43
Speaker 2: Actual truth tweet whatever. It's not politically correct to use
18:47
Speaker 2: the term regime change, but the current Iranian regime is
18:50
Speaker 2: unable to make Iran great again. Why wouldn't there be
18:53
Speaker 2: a regime change? Miga make Iran grade again?
18:57
Speaker 1: When he's good.
18:58
Speaker 2: He's so good, I can't.
19:00
Speaker 1: I also enjoyed the quote from his address, which was
19:03
Speaker 1: his address was really solid. When he came out, I
19:06
Speaker 1: knew he was going to nail it because I was
19:07
Speaker 1: looking for short and sweet, like you don't get a
19:09
Speaker 1: lot after this, and I didn't want him on a
19:12
Speaker 1: bunch of Trumpian tangents. He came out, he nailed the
19:16
Speaker 1: name of all three sites, and I was like, my
19:19
Speaker 1: dude has been practicing, and he nailed that. He went
19:23
Speaker 1: on for just a few minutes, and not without Trumpian flourish.
19:26
Speaker 1: My favorite one was you know, if they do anything else,
19:29
Speaker 1: you know the consequences will be much bigger than this
19:32
Speaker 1: and much easier.
19:34
Speaker 2: Right. My favorite was we love God, we love God.
19:41
Speaker 1: Can I say that? I think, because I am a
19:44
Speaker 1: person of faith, I think there is providence involved in this.
19:48
Speaker 1: I think there was providence in John Paul the Second,
19:50
Speaker 1: Thatcher and Reagan being aligned against communism. I think there
19:54
Speaker 1: is providence in Bibi Netan, Yahoo and Trump against all odds,
19:58
Speaker 1: serving together twice getting like a do over on this right.
20:04
Speaker 2: And I think I really do think Trump was never
20:07
Speaker 2: the God guy. And I'm also a person of faith.
20:12
Speaker 2: I believe in God, and I always thought that God
20:15
Speaker 2: plays a hand and a lot of what we see happening.
20:19
Speaker 2: But Trump was it. And I think that the attempt
20:23
Speaker 2: on his life in Butler really changed him. You could
20:27
Speaker 2: see it in so many different ways around him. But
20:29
Speaker 2: at the end of the address, he said, I just
20:31
Speaker 2: want to thank everybody in particular God. I want to
20:34
Speaker 2: just say, we love you God, and we love our
20:36
Speaker 2: great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East, God
20:38
Speaker 2: bless Israel, and God bless America. You know, it's really
20:44
Speaker 2: wonderful to see him in that place. Of course, there's
20:47
Speaker 2: a lot of people who are concerned about it. The
20:49
Speaker 2: Daily Beast headline yesterday was Donald Trump's strange God talk
20:53
Speaker 2: As people concerned. It does not have me concerned. It
20:56
Speaker 2: has me very happy actually.
20:58
Speaker 1: That this is another like deep divide between elite commentary
21:02
Speaker 1: and normal people. Normal people regularly have thoughts about how
21:06
Speaker 1: God is directing their lives and hope to put God's
21:09
Speaker 1: blessing on various missions and various leaders. That's a very
21:13
Speaker 1: normal thought for normal people to have. But in the
21:17
Speaker 1: Daily Beast newsroom and the New York Times newsroom, not
21:20
Speaker 1: so much so.
21:22
Speaker 5: Right.
21:25
Speaker 1: I don't want to be triumphalist about it, but I
21:27
Speaker 1: do think he took He took a very brave chance.
21:30
Speaker 1: He was decisive in the ways that I think made
21:34
Speaker 1: him worth voting for. Over Oh gosh, imagine a Harris
21:37
Speaker 1: administration right now.
21:38
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris right now. I just, oh gosh.
21:42
Speaker 1: And when I said that earlier about the like Iranian
21:46
Speaker 1: assets in the American government, these things are real. These
21:48
Speaker 1: are real stories that don't get a lot of play.
21:51
Speaker 1: But in the Biden government there were like Iranian folks
21:54
Speaker 1: just hanging around, advising, influencing from outside and inside. They
21:59
Speaker 1: gave the Obama administration authorized giving them billions in just
22:02
Speaker 1: palettes of cash rash. Yeah, they said, wink, wink, I'm sure,
22:06
Speaker 1: you guys won't build a bomb right right, and it's
22:09
Speaker 1: just brain dead, Like I don't understand anything about that philosophy.
22:15
Speaker 1: I think this one is better, and I think we
22:17
Speaker 1: would have been unsafe with Harris in office.
22:20
Speaker 2: Fully fully agree, we're going to take a short break
22:24
Speaker 2: and come right back with normally. Well, I feel like
22:31
Speaker 2: we should end with a light topic because this is
22:34
Speaker 2: clearly you know, we've been through some things here. Nate
22:40
Speaker 2: Silver posted a graph a few days ago. Nate Silver
22:46
Speaker 2: was is the five thirty eight you know pulling guy.
22:50
Speaker 2: He was at The New York Times before. His graph
22:54
Speaker 2: showed the liberal conservative happiness gap and how it persists
22:59
Speaker 2: among across all demographics. Like literally, it doesn't matter your race,
23:03
Speaker 2: it's on every single race of conservative is happier versus
23:07
Speaker 2: every race of liberal. Every age cohort is happier. Every
23:11
Speaker 2: educational attainment group is happier when they are conservative. Overall,
23:16
Speaker 2: the number is sixty eight percent of conservatives are happy
23:20
Speaker 2: versus fifty three percent of liberals. I would say, you know,
23:24
Speaker 2: the postgraduate cohort is supposedly the happiest one. Seventy five
23:28
Speaker 2: percent of postgraduate conservatives are happy. Sixty percent of postgraduate
23:32
Speaker 2: liberals are happy, and I would just say it shows
23:37
Speaker 2: it really does. This was not at all surprising to me.
23:42
Speaker 2: I thought that this would be obvious to everybody. Income
23:46
Speaker 2: is another one. People who make over one hundred k
23:50
Speaker 2: tend to be happier. Seventy four percent of conservatives who
23:53
Speaker 2: make over one hundred k are happy versus sixty percent
23:57
Speaker 2: of liberals. None of this is surprising to me.
24:00
Speaker 1: Well, and the one that a lot of people are
24:01
Speaker 1: flagging is that conservatives who make thirty k a year
24:06
Speaker 1: are exactly as happy as liberals who make a hundred k.
24:12
Speaker 2: It's amazing.
24:13
Speaker 1: That is quite a stat And look, I don't want
24:18
Speaker 1: to overread this stuff, but it's been consistent over many
24:23
Speaker 1: different types of studies, different types of polling. Obviously this
24:27
Speaker 1: is self reported, but your self reported happiness matters if
24:32
Speaker 1: you perceive yourself as happy. That's part of how it works.
24:36
Speaker 1: There is there's some theory, of course, that liberals over
24:41
Speaker 1: report mental illness, and also that conservatives underreported right because
24:46
Speaker 1: it might not be in their cohort fashionable to say
24:50
Speaker 1: like I'm dealing with this.
24:51
Speaker 2: Or that right.
24:52
Speaker 1: Also, though, like liberals incentivize at having some sort of
24:58
Speaker 1: mental malady to earn the right to be heard or
25:03
Speaker 1: to like exist within their coalition, right, you have to
25:08
Speaker 1: be like, yeah, I am just like a white lady,
25:10
Speaker 1: but also look at my three conditions, and that's why
25:16
Speaker 1: I'm an okay person.
25:17
Speaker 2: There's also our buddy Ian Miller on X posted because
25:22
Speaker 2: the worldview of the political left requires a delusional obsession
25:26
Speaker 2: with trying to solve mostly non existent problems. They replace
25:29
Speaker 2: religion with politics when their politics are never ending uphill
25:32
Speaker 2: battle against reality. That makes sense to me as well.
25:36
Speaker 2: A lot of people are saying, oh, conservatives are lying.
25:38
Speaker 2: They're just lying about their happiness. Why why would you
25:41
Speaker 2: lie about Oh, by.
25:43
Speaker 1: The way, I think, I think lying about your own
25:45
Speaker 1: happiness probably leads you to be a little bit happier.
25:48
Speaker 1: There's there's all the things that show repeatedly that they
25:54
Speaker 1: serve happiness. Conservatives are into building families, shareishing that family time,
26:01
Speaker 1: having faith. These are like the things that liberals have
26:05
Speaker 1: to sort of do begrudgingly that we do happily, are
26:09
Speaker 1: the things that actually show repeatedly create happiness. We also,
26:13
Speaker 1: i think have, particularly people of faith, have an acceptance
26:17
Speaker 1: that we live in a fallen world. And therefore things
26:19
Speaker 1: will not progress to perfection. Yeah, via government program or
26:24
Speaker 1: our lives or whatever it is. And so you sort
26:26
Speaker 1: of you're playing with that built in and you understand
26:30
Speaker 1: that life is hard and that you cherish the beautiful
26:32
Speaker 1: moments more is my experience with our cohort versus others
26:36
Speaker 1: who don't have faith.
26:37
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And Abigail Schreyer wrote this in her last book.
26:42
Speaker 2: But you know, the more you wallow in your unhappiness,
26:46
Speaker 2: the worse you feel. And it's why her book is
26:51
Speaker 2: called bad Therapy. I recommend it to everybody all the time.
26:54
Speaker 2: But it's why kids who go to therapy actually don't
26:57
Speaker 2: end up being happier. They end up being less happy
26:59
Speaker 2: because constantly talking about their problems and wallowing in those
27:03
Speaker 2: problems makes you less happy. And there's nothing the left
27:06
Speaker 2: enjoys more than the wallowing.
27:09
Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem sort of obvious what's happening here.
27:14
Speaker 1: And you know, I'm going to raise my kids in
27:17
Speaker 1: the faith and also you know, with conservative values and
27:21
Speaker 1: thinking that America is just the greatest and not wallowing
27:24
Speaker 1: or being victims. I would do that anyway because I'm me,
27:27
Speaker 1: but I would do it on the evidence, if I
27:31
Speaker 1: were honestly reading the evidence because I think their outcomes
27:33
Speaker 1: will be.
27:34
Speaker 2: Better, that is the truth. Well, thanks for joining us
27:38
Speaker 2: on Normally. Normally airs Tuesdays and Thursdays, and you can
27:42
Speaker 2: subscribe anywhere you get your podcasts. Get in touch with
27:45
Speaker 2: us at normallythepod at gmail dot com. Thanks for listening,
27:48
Speaker 2: and when things get weird, act normally