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Survivorship Bias - What it Can Teach You About Planning Ahead For Success · Do You F*cking Mind?

0:11
Speaker 1: Hello, beautiful beans, and welcome to the podcast episode of today.
0:15
Speaker 1: My name is Alexis Fernandez. This is do You Fucking Mind.
0:18
Speaker 1: This is the place where you come to improve your
0:20
Speaker 1: relationship with yourself and your brain, and in today's episode,
0:25
Speaker 1: your intelligence. This episode is going to make you think
0:32
Speaker 1: in a more critical way. The way you analyze things
0:35
Speaker 1: will hopefully be sharper by the end of this episode.
0:38
Speaker 1: That is the aim. We are talking about survivorship bias.
0:42
Speaker 1: If you've never heard of it, you're in for a trip.
0:45
Speaker 1: It's one of my favorite kinds of bias, bias, biases,
0:48
Speaker 1: biases to talk about. Okay, and before we get into it,
0:52
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Speaker 1: stuff as well. Okay, let's get into the episode of today.
3:12
Speaker 1: We are talking about survivorship bias, and this is just
3:15
Speaker 1: going to make I feel like once you really understand
3:17
Speaker 1: survivorship bias, you look at things through a better lens.
3:23
Speaker 1: You're able to see things from a different angle that
3:27
Speaker 1: maybe you never thought possible. And I'm going to give
3:29
Speaker 1: you some examples of survivorship bias that help you apply
3:35
Speaker 1: these examples to all kinds of other areas in your life.
3:38
Speaker 1: And then I'm going to talk about how survivorship bias
3:41
Speaker 1: can make you better at making decisions for your future.
3:45
Speaker 1: How you could actually apply this bias to be more
3:49
Speaker 1: well rounded with the decisions you make and the risks
3:52
Speaker 1: you take moving forward. And it's not to say you
3:54
Speaker 1: don't take these risks anymore, but it's going to help
3:57
Speaker 1: you calculate your risks so much better. Okay, So let's
4:03
Speaker 1: talk about savvship bias. So the actual definition of saviviship
4:08
Speaker 1: bias is a logical error where you concentrate only on
4:13
Speaker 1: successful outcomes and ignore failures, leading to skewed conclusions. Okay.
4:19
Speaker 1: This happens because the survivors quote unquote, or the winners
4:22
Speaker 1: or the success stories are very visible and the failures
4:27
Speaker 1: are often hidden. They slink away, they're purposely deleted, or
4:33
Speaker 1: they're forgotten about. Okay, So the reason why this could
4:37
Speaker 1: affect you negatively is because you are not really aware
4:41
Speaker 1: of the downside of something, or of your own shortcomings
4:44
Speaker 1: or things that could actually cause you to fail or
4:47
Speaker 1: cause you to slip up, or cause you to have
4:49
Speaker 1: an error because maybe you have succeeded by chance or
4:53
Speaker 1: maybe what caused your success was kind of biased. And
4:57
Speaker 1: I'll explain obviously in detail what I mean by that,
5:01
Speaker 1: people who actually make mistakes in life, I believe are
5:06
Speaker 1: going to be more well rounded when it comes to
5:10
Speaker 1: actually succeeding because you have real data to work with.
5:14
Speaker 1: It's very good to have failures and major failures, in
5:19
Speaker 1: my opinion, because when you have a major failure, you
5:22
Speaker 1: have a more realistic perspective of the chances of success.
5:25
Speaker 1: And it's not to say don't go out for that thing,
5:27
Speaker 1: but it's really good to know what really are the
5:30
Speaker 1: realistic chances of success. So how much should I be
5:33
Speaker 1: putting all my eggs in one basket? And how should
5:36
Speaker 1: I be spreading my skill set and my time and
5:39
Speaker 1: my attention. Where could I be skilling up, Where could
5:42
Speaker 1: I be fueling my energy into Where should I be
5:46
Speaker 1: educating myself more? All of these things? And failures are
5:50
Speaker 1: a really good teacher for exactly those things. It's not
5:53
Speaker 1: just like, oh, if you fail to become more resilient,
5:56
Speaker 1: because you do, but failures become a teacher for those
5:58
Speaker 1: exact reasons. They actually help you sharpen the skills that
6:03
Speaker 1: you need and the tools that you have you know
6:05
Speaker 1: around you to actually get to not just that one
6:09
Speaker 1: specific thing that you want to have in your life,
6:10
Speaker 1: but the overall life that you want to have. Like
6:13
Speaker 1: I've used my personal example so many times where you know,
6:16
Speaker 1: I didn't make it in acting, but because I was
6:19
Speaker 1: able to really sharpen my skill set in the other
6:21
Speaker 1: things that I really liked, I was able to get
6:23
Speaker 1: a career which is podcasting and writing, which I fucking
6:26
Speaker 1: love so much. And I can't speak for what my
6:29
Speaker 1: life could have been like if I made it in acting,
6:31
Speaker 1: but as far as I'm aware, I couldn't be happier. Okay,
6:35
Speaker 1: So that's an example. Okay, Now let's go into some
6:40
Speaker 1: common scenarios of where survivorship bias kind of will be
6:45
Speaker 1: really prominent. So we've got startups, businesses and startups. You
6:49
Speaker 1: often hear stories about really successful companies and how they
6:52
Speaker 1: were started, and often how they were dropouts of like
6:56
Speaker 1: great universities and there were a dropout so they could
6:58
Speaker 1: start that thing. You know, billionaire dropouts is kind of
7:02
Speaker 1: the secret to success. You know you're around the right people,
7:05
Speaker 1: but you don't actually need that degree because look at
7:07
Speaker 1: all these examples of these people that have billion dollar
7:09
Speaker 1: companies that dropped out at UNI. So it just proves
7:11
Speaker 1: that you don't need that degree and now they're a billionaire. Okay,
7:14
Speaker 1: that's all well and good, but how many people do
7:17
Speaker 1: you think have dropped out of university to do exactly
7:20
Speaker 1: what you know, these you know, billionaire startup people did
7:24
Speaker 1: and failed miserably and lost all the money, and then
7:27
Speaker 1: lost all the money from that degree and then had
7:29
Speaker 1: to probably start from scratch or lose at least at
7:30
Speaker 1: the very least all the subjects that they dropped out
7:32
Speaker 1: of in that semester, and then they had to pay
7:33
Speaker 1: again to do that subject in the semester. So I'm
7:35
Speaker 1: not saying don't be bold and drop out, but I'm
7:37
Speaker 1: saying you need to look at all the data. You
7:39
Speaker 1: can't be like, well, these people did it, so it's
7:41
Speaker 1: gonna work for me. That's a prime example of survivorship bias.
7:44
Speaker 1: You're looking at the survivors who became billionaires, but you're
7:46
Speaker 1: not looking at the hundreds of thousands of probably people
7:49
Speaker 1: that tried to do a very similar thing across history
7:52
Speaker 1: who failed miserably. Okay, and then you've got you know,
7:58
Speaker 1: people's own personal hiss like listening to successful people talk
8:04
Speaker 1: about their achievements saying that it was oh, it's all
8:07
Speaker 1: because of hard work and ignoring the thousands of people
8:11
Speaker 1: that worked just as hard as they did but didn't
8:13
Speaker 1: get there. Like you know, someone wins an Oscar in
8:15
Speaker 1: their forties and they say, see, it's because I never
8:18
Speaker 1: gave up. And if all you actors out there that
8:19
Speaker 1: are trying to make it, I am proof that if
8:22
Speaker 1: you just never give up, you will get here, you
8:25
Speaker 1: will make a career in acting, and you will win
8:27
Speaker 1: an Oscar. I am proof. What about all the other
8:30
Speaker 1: forty five year olds that are still slogging it out
8:32
Speaker 1: in their acting career that didn't get to where that
8:33
Speaker 1: individual is. Are you saying that they're not working as
8:37
Speaker 1: hard as you? Are you saying that, well, they just
8:38
Speaker 1: didn't want it hard enough, or they just didn't work
8:40
Speaker 1: hard enough. They've worked just as hard as you. They've
8:42
Speaker 1: slogged it out just as hard as you. Some people
8:44
Speaker 1: get there, some people don't. That's the reality of it.
8:47
Speaker 1: But these people are spinning the story saying the reason
8:49
Speaker 1: I got here is because I worked so hard, and
8:51
Speaker 1: they're not attributing the fact that there are people that
8:54
Speaker 1: work equally as hard as them that sometimes just don't
8:56
Speaker 1: get there, maybe because they didn't have the right look
8:59
Speaker 1: or the right age and the right resources or the
9:01
Speaker 1: right skill set or whatever to get there. Now, here's
9:06
Speaker 1: a classic example that I found. This is kind of
9:09
Speaker 1: the example that made me do this episode in the
9:10
Speaker 1: first place, because I was like, I could literally do
9:12
Speaker 1: a whole episode and savivorship buyas based on this. The
9:15
Speaker 1: World War II arm Literally if you write in survivorship
9:19
Speaker 1: bias in Google, this is the example that's going to
9:21
Speaker 1: come up. So in World War Two, the military wanted
9:26
Speaker 1: to look at the planes that were being obviously like
9:29
Speaker 1: hit by bullets, and they were saying, we need to
9:31
Speaker 1: have the strongest planes possible. We need to reinforce these
9:33
Speaker 1: planes to have so they're stronger than ever. So we've
9:36
Speaker 1: got more planes coming back not obviously being shot down,
9:39
Speaker 1: and they crash not only for the planes but also
9:42
Speaker 1: for the pilots and the people in the plane. So
9:44
Speaker 1: they're surviving. Okay, So how can these planes withstand enemy
9:49
Speaker 1: bullets enemy fire better? So they were analyzing all the
9:53
Speaker 1: planes that were returning that actually were surviving, you know,
9:56
Speaker 1: and they looked at all the bullet holes on these planes.
9:59
Speaker 1: So the heaviest damage were on certain parts of the fuselage,
10:03
Speaker 1: certain parts of the wings, and certain parts of the tail,
10:05
Speaker 1: and you could see there was like literally clusters of
10:08
Speaker 1: like most of the bullets here here. Here, there were
10:10
Speaker 1: like key points where there were clusters of bullets. So
10:13
Speaker 1: the initial idea was, we need to add armor to
10:18
Speaker 1: all these really highly damaged areas because if you PLoP
10:20
Speaker 1: them across all the planes that had come back, they're
10:22
Speaker 1: all happening around the same areas. So we're going to
10:24
Speaker 1: really reinforce these areas so they're stronger and less likely
10:27
Speaker 1: to be shot down. So then a statistician got involved.
10:33
Speaker 1: His name was Abraham Wold, and he realized that this
10:36
Speaker 1: kind of thinking was falling victim to survivorship bias. Now,
10:39
Speaker 1: if you want to have a think about why that
10:41
Speaker 1: could be, then pause this right now and have a
10:44
Speaker 1: few moments to be like, why is it that you
10:47
Speaker 1: would be falling victim to the savivorship bucks But for
10:49
Speaker 1: those of you that haven't paused, the plans that were
10:52
Speaker 1: returning were the survivors. They had survived being shot in
10:56
Speaker 1: those areas. So basically it's saying that by being shot
10:59
Speaker 1: in that part of the fuselage or that part of
11:01
Speaker 1: the wing, it's not a critical shot. The planes that
11:04
Speaker 1: were being shot in the other areas weren't returning, So
11:07
Speaker 1: you're never going to see bullet holes in returning planes
11:10
Speaker 1: in a critical area where a plane cannot survive a
11:13
Speaker 1: shot because that plane went down into the ocean on
11:16
Speaker 1: the floor, whatever, but it's not coming back and it's
11:17
Speaker 1: probably blown up, so you're not even going to see
11:19
Speaker 1: that damage clearly on that plane. So there's just not
11:26
Speaker 1: showing where you can make a bullet on that plane
11:29
Speaker 1: and it not make it back home. So obviously, this
11:33
Speaker 1: statistician Abraham Wolds deducted that areas with no bullet holes
11:38
Speaker 1: in the surviving planes were the critical parts, because the
11:41
Speaker 1: planes that did get a bullet there didn't come back.
11:45
Speaker 1: So those areas where there were no bullet holes in
11:48
Speaker 1: the surviving planes were the areas that actually needed to
11:51
Speaker 1: be reinforced. The areas where no one was looking at
11:54
Speaker 1: are the areas that should have been looked at. Okay,
11:57
Speaker 1: so because they never made it into the data set
11:59
Speaker 1: in the first place. And to give you a great
12:00
Speaker 1: example in a second about MLMs, which cross over perfectly
12:04
Speaker 1: about this. So the military reinforced those areas, and of
12:09
Speaker 1: course they then had more plans returning because of that.
12:13
Speaker 1: Now let's do another example. I'm actually reading a book
12:17
Speaker 1: right now. I need to see what the name of
12:18
Speaker 1: the book is so I can actually give you a recommendation.
12:22
Speaker 1: But i'm reading. It's not I'm actually not reading. I'm
12:24
Speaker 1: listening to an audiobook and the book is called what's
12:28
Speaker 1: it called, hey Han? Well, it's called hey Han Sales, Sisterhood,
12:36
Speaker 1: Supremacy and the Other Lives Sorry, and the Other Lies
12:39
Speaker 1: behind multi level Marketing. Emily Lynn Paulson is the author,
12:43
Speaker 1: and I'm fucking loving this book sick. I have this
12:47
Speaker 1: weird interest in people that were in MLMs and then
12:51
Speaker 1: got out because multi level marketing and if you're in one,
12:57
Speaker 1: I love to tell you this, get out, okay. But
13:00
Speaker 1: multi level marketing is just a like a form of
13:03
Speaker 1: indoctrination at its craziest. And you look at how they
13:07
Speaker 1: indoctrinate people in MLMs, and it's very much along the
13:11
Speaker 1: lines of how they would indoctrinate someone into a cult,
13:13
Speaker 1: like literally, and she explains it in this book as well,
13:16
Speaker 1: like there's actually like set things that you have to
13:19
Speaker 1: do within like getting someone really into an MLM by
13:23
Speaker 1: isolating them from people that don't agree by, you know,
13:26
Speaker 1: love bombing them and gas lighting them. All this kind
13:30
Speaker 1: of stuff is what you would do to someone when
13:32
Speaker 1: you're trying to really get them into the depths of
13:34
Speaker 1: a cult. Okay, but anyway, that's me going on a
13:37
Speaker 1: slight tangent. But savivorship bias is actually one of the
13:40
Speaker 1: main problems in MLMs, and it's why so many people
13:43
Speaker 1: do start in the first place. And so the first
13:46
Speaker 1: reason is this crazy spotlight on the winners, on the
13:50
Speaker 1: people that are making that the ones that do make
13:53
Speaker 1: a lot of money. So they're promoting these top earners,
13:55
Speaker 1: they're putting them on stage on social media, on all
13:59
Speaker 1: their corporate materials. The flyers that this they're that they
14:03
Speaker 1: are seeinging the praises at the top of the mountain, okay,
14:07
Speaker 1: and their success story is used as this is the
14:11
Speaker 1: path that you will make when you get into this career,
14:13
Speaker 1: Like this is just the path. If you get into
14:15
Speaker 1: this career and you work as hard as you should
14:17
Speaker 1: be working, this is where you're gonna get okay, which
14:20
Speaker 1: is obviously not the case, not just in m LEM
14:24
Speaker 1: but in every single career. Like if I start in acting,
14:30
Speaker 1: they're not saying to me at the acting class, you're
14:32
Speaker 1: gonna win an Oscar. All you cunts in this class
14:35
Speaker 1: are gonna win an Oscar in a couple of years
14:37
Speaker 1: after you've done it. They're not saying that because and
14:40
Speaker 1: same as with the singer, they're not saying you're gonna
14:41
Speaker 1: win a Grammy. You start singing, you're winning winning a
14:43
Speaker 1: Grammy when you start. When you go to business class
14:47
Speaker 1: at university, they're not pointing out a billionaire being like, oh,
14:49
Speaker 1: you guys, you work hard enough, you're billionaires. You're gonna
14:52
Speaker 1: you're gonna be the next sea of meta, Like that's
14:54
Speaker 1: just you guys, right, Like, they're not doing that, but
14:57
Speaker 1: MLMs do that, and they make it out to be
14:59
Speaker 1: if you work hard enough, this is you, okay, And
15:02
Speaker 1: so it's very skewed because a lot of people think, oh,
15:04
Speaker 1: I just have to get x amount of people and
15:06
Speaker 1: do this and do what they tell me to do,
15:07
Speaker 1: and I'm going to reach these heights. They also hide
15:12
Speaker 1: the failures, okay. They never talk about the failed distributors.
15:17
Speaker 1: They don't talk about the crazy tone over that they
15:19
Speaker 1: have in the industry, and to their benefit, a lot
15:24
Speaker 1: of people that work in an MLM and then fail
15:27
Speaker 1: are embarrassed or they feel a sort of shame that
15:30
Speaker 1: they either feel a shame that they failed or they
15:33
Speaker 1: feel a shame that they fell for the lies and
15:35
Speaker 1: the bullshit, and so they don't want to talk about
15:37
Speaker 1: their failures. They don't want to sing it from the treetops,
15:39
Speaker 1: being like, hey, guys, I this happened to me. A
15:42
Speaker 1: lot of people don't want to do that. When you
15:43
Speaker 1: have something go wrong in your life, and especially where
15:45
Speaker 1: there's a bit of a shame attached to where you
15:47
Speaker 1: feel like it's a personal failure, you don't really want
15:51
Speaker 1: to announce it to everyone because then you're getting everyone
15:53
Speaker 1: either pitying you, which a lot of people don't want,
15:56
Speaker 1: or you're getting people think that, oh, well, I would
15:59
Speaker 1: have seen that coming, but you like they think you
16:01
Speaker 1: maybe should have seen around the corner, should have been smarter,
16:04
Speaker 1: or didn't And you don't want that either. So to
16:06
Speaker 1: the you know, to the benefit of MLMs, all the
16:10
Speaker 1: people that fail kind of slink away into the darkness.
16:14
Speaker 1: So then there's that the fallacy if they can do it,
16:17
Speaker 1: so can you. A lot of people use this to
16:20
Speaker 1: trick people into getting into an MLM. So it's they're
16:24
Speaker 1: actively using the survivorship bias kind of logic. Then another
16:29
Speaker 1: thing that MLMs do is they victim blame hard so
16:32
Speaker 1: they're like, you know, you just didn't work hard enough.
16:34
Speaker 1: That person didn't work hard enough, they didn't follow the
16:37
Speaker 1: rule book, they didn't do what they should have been told.
16:39
Speaker 1: You know, you don't want it bad enough, you're not hustling.
16:42
Speaker 1: It's that like boss babes, I'm a sheeo. That fucking
16:47
Speaker 1: language like fucking kills me. You're not a CEO. If
16:51
Speaker 1: you are in multi level marketing. You do not choose
16:54
Speaker 1: your marketing. You do not choose the material, you don't
16:56
Speaker 1: choose the inventory, you don't choose what you're purchasing. You
16:58
Speaker 1: don't choose any of that shit. You're not a CEO.
17:00
Speaker 1: And I'm saying this to be nice to you. If
17:02
Speaker 1: you are in an MLM, because you are either struggling
17:05
Speaker 1: right now, get the fuck out of there, or if
17:07
Speaker 1: you're succeeding, you're a fucking con artist because you're fucking
17:10
Speaker 1: all there's other people over who are underneath you. I'm
17:12
Speaker 1: a huge I just hate MLMs anyway. That is the
17:15
Speaker 1: MLM example. Now I'm going to give another example that
17:17
Speaker 1: will probably ruffle some more feathers, and it's the example
17:20
Speaker 1: of home births. And the reason that I want to
17:22
Speaker 1: talk about this is because a I've got data to
17:24
Speaker 1: back me up, and which I love because that's the
17:27
Speaker 1: only stuff I have a references shit that I can
17:29
Speaker 1: back with data. And also because when I was pregnant,
17:31
Speaker 1: I had a few people, some in the comments and
17:34
Speaker 1: many in my DMS who were saying, either are you
17:37
Speaker 1: going to do a home birth? Or you should try
17:39
Speaker 1: a home birth, which is in my opinion, unhinged behavior sense. Now,
17:49
Speaker 1: home births have a really interesting kind of survivorship bias,
17:54
Speaker 1: and there's several reasons for it. Because people that have
17:56
Speaker 1: a successful home birth are going to talk about it
17:59
Speaker 1: a lot more than people that didn't have a successful
18:01
Speaker 1: home birth and either had to end up in hospital
18:03
Speaker 1: or where there was a fatality where either they died,
18:06
Speaker 1: which then they can't talk about it, or the baby
18:08
Speaker 1: died okay, And there's this conclusion, this flawed idea that well,
18:13
Speaker 1: my mum had a healthy home birth and my grandmother
18:15
Speaker 1: had a healthy home birth, so universally home births are
18:18
Speaker 1: safe because everyone I know had a homebirth, And what
18:22
Speaker 1: they're not thinking about is the successful home births are
18:24
Speaker 1: the low risk pregnancies. They're going to be the ones
18:29
Speaker 1: that skew kind of the statistics of a home birth.
18:33
Speaker 1: Another thing that heavily skews the statistics of a home
18:36
Speaker 1: birth when you look at a lot of people even
18:37
Speaker 1: said to me, because I did a post being like,
18:40
Speaker 1: I'm not going to have a home birth. I have twins.
18:42
Speaker 1: That's not an interest in me. And I would never
18:44
Speaker 1: be telling someone on the commenting on their saying being
18:47
Speaker 1: you should do this or you shouldn't do that. Even now,
18:49
Speaker 1: I'm not telling people don't do a homebirth or do
18:51
Speaker 1: a home birth. I'm just talking about survivorship bias and
18:53
Speaker 1: the statistics around a homebirth. But people were saying to me, well,
18:57
Speaker 1: there's actually more debts in hospital per capita then there
19:02
Speaker 1: is in a home birth. Firstly, that's not clear depending
19:06
Speaker 1: on which country you're talking about. And secondly, what skews
19:11
Speaker 1: the data on home birth debts is that when there
19:13
Speaker 1: is a complication in the home birth and you need
19:15
Speaker 1: intervention and the you know, you get paramedics coming in
19:18
Speaker 1: and the solution or not the solution, but the next step,
19:21
Speaker 1: the next critical step is to go to hospital because
19:23
Speaker 1: they can't do anything there. The baby gets taken to
19:26
Speaker 1: the hospital, and then if the baby dies in hospital,
19:29
Speaker 1: often that is counted as a hospital death, not a
19:31
Speaker 1: homebirth death, because the baby died in hospital, So what
19:34
Speaker 1: the home birth attempt, you know, would have led to
19:39
Speaker 1: a death, but because they died in hospital, it is
19:41
Speaker 1: sometimes counted as a hospital debt. So that automatically skews
19:44
Speaker 1: the data like crazy. So if you're someone who's contemplating
19:48
Speaker 1: am I doing a home birth or not, you have
19:50
Speaker 1: to look at many different factors. You can't just be like, well,
19:52
Speaker 1: I'll just look at the data. There's less deaths per
19:54
Speaker 1: capita then in hospital. That you've got to look at
19:56
Speaker 1: so much more. You've also got to look at complications,
19:59
Speaker 1: like people would giving me data about home births not
20:02
Speaker 1: factoring in that I've had twins or that I'm going
20:05
Speaker 1: that I was going to have twins and that is
20:07
Speaker 1: considered an extremely high risk pregnancy. Twins or multiples is
20:11
Speaker 1: extremely high risk. And someone was actually arguing with me saying, well,
20:14
Speaker 1: I had home birth twins, like twins that were homebirth,
20:18
Speaker 1: and I'm like, again, that's survivorship bias. You're not looking
20:22
Speaker 1: at all the data. So if you're going to do
20:24
Speaker 1: something that's risky, by all means, go for it, but
20:27
Speaker 1: you have to look at the data and you can't
20:29
Speaker 1: reduce something to just the fact that it worked for
20:32
Speaker 1: your mother or that it worked for you. That is
20:34
Speaker 1: not the data that someone needs to look at when
20:36
Speaker 1: they're making such an important decision in their life. You
20:39
Speaker 1: have to look at as much data as possible to
20:42
Speaker 1: come up with a healthy conclusion for yourself, a healthy
20:46
Speaker 1: decision for yourself. Because then, yeah, like back to the
20:49
Speaker 1: example of the home births, like planned home birth, where
20:52
Speaker 1: you plan to do it is often recommended for people
20:55
Speaker 1: that have singletons, low risk pregnancies, you know, and with
21:01
Speaker 1: no complications. So if you're looking at that data set
21:04
Speaker 1: of that population of mothers who are having a single baby,
21:09
Speaker 1: low risk and no complications, and they're the ones that
21:12
Speaker 1: are having a comfortable home birth, well obviously, so then
21:15
Speaker 1: if someone who has a more complicated pregnancy is contemplating
21:18
Speaker 1: a home birth, it's probably not the data set she
21:21
Speaker 1: should be looking at. She should be looking at a
21:22
Speaker 1: data set that includes her kind of individuals in those
21:26
Speaker 1: statistics so that she can make a more a better
21:28
Speaker 1: informed decision around where she plans to give birth. So
21:31
Speaker 1: that's why there is such a skew in people chanting, well,
21:35
Speaker 1: my home birth was fabulous, so everyone should have a
21:37
Speaker 1: fabulous home birth. That's not necessarily the case, Like what
21:39
Speaker 1: is your individual situation, and that's then going to determine
21:43
Speaker 1: which data set you're going to look at. Let's get
21:46
Speaker 1: a little bit further. So this, this whole survivorship bias,
21:49
Speaker 1: is one of the reasons why I don't like it
21:50
Speaker 1: when people say you should never have a plan B.
21:53
Speaker 1: I don't like the idea of telling someone that they
21:55
Speaker 1: should never have a plan B. If you're so serious
21:58
Speaker 1: about your plan A, you shouldn't have a plan B.
22:00
Speaker 1: I think that's fucking bullshit. Okay, because, like I say
22:03
Speaker 1: a thousand times over, you can ownly control what you
22:07
Speaker 1: can ownly control. There's going to be many things in
22:09
Speaker 1: your life that are just out of your control. You
22:11
Speaker 1: can influence people, you can do your best to get
22:14
Speaker 1: the best possible outcome. You can raise your chances of
22:17
Speaker 1: something happening based on how prepared you are and how
22:20
Speaker 1: you interact with the outside world. But there's only so
22:23
Speaker 1: much that you have total control over like again, back
22:26
Speaker 1: to the acting example. I can't control what roles are
22:29
Speaker 1: going to be available, if they're going to suit me perfectly.
22:31
Speaker 1: I can't control if the casting director likes me. I
22:34
Speaker 1: can't control if I fit in with the cast that's
22:36
Speaker 1: already been cast so automatically, no matter how hard I work,
22:39
Speaker 1: I can't really control how many roles I'm actually going
22:42
Speaker 1: to get or not. That's not within my control. Okay,
22:44
Speaker 1: if you look at you know, any like you could
22:47
Speaker 1: you could apply that to anything. Okay, I don't need
22:49
Speaker 1: to give you a thousand examples for it. So that's
22:51
Speaker 1: why I don't like when people talk about, if you're
22:52
Speaker 1: so serious about your plan A, then you should never
22:54
Speaker 1: have a plan B. I think that's fucking bullshit. And
22:57
Speaker 1: it's also very reductive because you're basically also saying that
23:01
Speaker 1: there's only one version of your life that you could
23:04
Speaker 1: ever be truly happy and passionate with. And unless you're
23:06
Speaker 1: going all in. You know, when people say I'm becoming obsessed,
23:09
Speaker 1: become obsessed with something, you've got to become upset, like,
23:12
Speaker 1: fuck off. How about we just relax, right and we
23:16
Speaker 1: look at all the possibilities for our future and we
23:21
Speaker 1: have a bit of strategy behind the madness, because in
23:24
Speaker 1: my opinion, if you are enjoying the journey and you
23:27
Speaker 1: fucking love it even if you're not getting there, and
23:29
Speaker 1: you enjoy this log and you don't care how many
23:31
Speaker 1: times you get rejected, then fine, don't have a plan B.
23:34
Speaker 1: That's great, genuinely like that's if that's the life you
23:37
Speaker 1: want to be living, then it's exactly what you should
23:38
Speaker 1: be doing. But for people that are slogging it out
23:41
Speaker 1: and they're looking at everyone else start to hit other
23:44
Speaker 1: milestones in their life because they're in a career that
23:46
Speaker 1: maybe pays them well or gives them some sort of
23:48
Speaker 1: emotional and mental stability, and you're thinking, oh my god,
23:51
Speaker 1: oh my god, but I'm not a quitter. I'm not
23:52
Speaker 1: a fucking quotter, and I have to make it this screend.
23:54
Speaker 1: The more you tell yourself I have to make it
23:56
Speaker 1: in this career, the more you're saying that there's no
23:59
Speaker 1: other career that I could be happy with, Well, there's
24:01
Speaker 1: no other lifestyle or relationship or city or whatever that
24:05
Speaker 1: I could be happy with or in. And I think
24:09
Speaker 1: that's a huge disservice to yourself and you're kind of
24:12
Speaker 1: saying this survivorship bias is saying that if you work
24:14
Speaker 1: hard enough, you will fucking get there. But that's not
24:16
Speaker 1: true for many things. So sometimes knowing when to look
24:21
Speaker 1: at your own life data and look at the information
24:25
Speaker 1: that's available is one of the best things you can
24:28
Speaker 1: do for yourself, because knowing when to quit is a skill.
24:31
Speaker 1: It's a fucking skill, and it saves you the one
24:33
Speaker 1: thing you'll never get back, which is time. So I
24:37
Speaker 1: like to look at it as you should absolutely have
24:39
Speaker 1: a plan B, but Plan B. Don't look at your
24:41
Speaker 1: Plan B as a fallback. You look at your Plan
24:44
Speaker 1: B as an alternative path in life just as good.
24:48
Speaker 1: But it's an alternative, and that's when you allow yourself
24:50
Speaker 1: to get super creative. Okay, Because again back to myself
24:54
Speaker 1: personally as an example, and this is not trying to
24:56
Speaker 1: do survivorship bias, because everyone's example is going to be different.
24:59
Speaker 1: But podcasting to me is equally as fulfilling right as acting,
25:05
Speaker 1: as far as I can imagine for me personally. But
25:10
Speaker 1: that podcasting is not a fallback. It was another attempt
25:13
Speaker 1: at something. And if podcasting didn't work out, I genuinely
25:16
Speaker 1: think I would have probably done well, Okay, apart from science,
25:21
Speaker 1: because I love science, I probably would have gone into
25:23
Speaker 1: lecturing or maybe gone further into I don't know, research
25:27
Speaker 1: or whatever. But I probably would have loved architecture, and
25:30
Speaker 1: I probably would have loved engineering, like loved so I
25:35
Speaker 1: already in my mind and thinking of stuff that's like
25:40
Speaker 1: other completely different careers that I'm like, No, no, I
25:42
Speaker 1: genuinely think I would have loved architecture. I genuinely think
25:45
Speaker 1: I would have loved these things because those things interest
25:47
Speaker 1: me already. So I think it's really healthy to start
25:50
Speaker 1: broadening your interests and think I'm going to work like
25:54
Speaker 1: a dog to make this happen. But if it doesn't,
25:57
Speaker 1: I already know of five things from the top of
25:59
Speaker 1: my mind that I could delve a little bit deeper
26:01
Speaker 1: into and be interested in and see, like what piques
26:04
Speaker 1: my interest. If you listen to my episode on Tuesday
26:07
Speaker 1: and like about how to fall in love with your
26:09
Speaker 1: life again, and when I said, become an expert in
26:11
Speaker 1: something every single month, that's a great exercise to do
26:14
Speaker 1: even if you're already in love with your life. But
26:16
Speaker 1: if you're someone that's like I just don't know how
26:18
Speaker 1: to forl nothing's I'm not passionate about anything. I don't
26:21
Speaker 1: know which where I should go in life. This is
26:24
Speaker 1: a prime example of something an exercise that you could
26:26
Speaker 1: do to teach you how to start getting excited about
26:29
Speaker 1: different things in your life and how to peak your interest,
26:32
Speaker 1: how to find the start of something that could turn
26:36
Speaker 1: into a passion. It's by trial and error. It is
26:38
Speaker 1: a numbers game, and you have to be in it
26:40
Speaker 1: to win it. Okay, So it's not to say that
26:44
Speaker 1: you're not going to succeed if you you know, if
26:47
Speaker 1: you have a plan B. It's not saying, oh, plan B,
26:50
Speaker 1: mean's plan isn't going to succeed. It's to say, and
26:53
Speaker 1: if you came to my live show, I did speak
26:54
Speaker 1: about this, but it's to say, I've got all these
26:57
Speaker 1: fallback I don't even want to use the word fall back,
26:59
Speaker 1: but I've got all these alternative plans for my life.
27:02
Speaker 1: But the reason I'm staying in this one is because
27:04
Speaker 1: it's the one that right now really excites me so much.
27:07
Speaker 1: So it's something that you know, if I knew let's
27:12
Speaker 1: say my podcast for whatever reason, just let's say, the
27:15
Speaker 1: podcasting industry started getting harder and harder and harder and harder,
27:18
Speaker 1: and you couldn't really make money from it and whatever.
27:20
Speaker 1: I could be here being like no, no, no, I can't,
27:22
Speaker 1: it can never, or I could be like, listen, I
27:25
Speaker 1: really want this to work. I'm gonna work my ass
27:26
Speaker 1: off for it, and I do currently love it, and
27:28
Speaker 1: I hope I love it forever because at the moment,
27:29
Speaker 1: if I can love it, but I also have to
27:31
Speaker 1: keep my eyes open to the possibility of change in
27:34
Speaker 1: the future. So what other things could I be interested in?
27:36
Speaker 1: There's always going to be other avenues that I could
27:37
Speaker 1: like dabble into or be interested in, or do some research,
27:39
Speaker 1: And that way, you never feel like life is happening
27:43
Speaker 1: to you and you have no control. You start to realize,
27:46
Speaker 1: there's so many things that are not in my control.
27:48
Speaker 1: But what if I did everything possible with the things
27:50
Speaker 1: that were in my control? What if I educated myself?
27:52
Speaker 1: What if I looked at my own data and looked
27:54
Speaker 1: at where my downfalls are and where my successes are,
27:56
Speaker 1: where my skill sets are. Where can I upskill myself?
27:59
Speaker 1: What other things could I interested in? What can I
28:01
Speaker 1: be hungry for in my life? And therefore the opportunities
28:04
Speaker 1: are actually endless. There might be not what you expected,
28:07
Speaker 1: but they really are endless because there's actually so much
28:10
Speaker 1: available to you. But if you look at this survivorship
28:13
Speaker 1: bias of like, if you work hard enough, you're going
28:15
Speaker 1: to fuck and you'll get there. But it's just hard
28:17
Speaker 1: work and hard work we'll get I think it's pretty
28:21
Speaker 1: unfair to all the people that work just as hard
28:23
Speaker 1: as those other people and just never quite made it,
28:25
Speaker 1: never quite got that opportunity, never got that break, and
28:29
Speaker 1: they feel like a failure because the narrative is, well,
28:33
Speaker 1: if you work hard enough, you'll get there, and they
28:35
Speaker 1: really did work hard enough and they didn't quite get there.
28:37
Speaker 1: When maybe these people, if they had a better mindset
28:41
Speaker 1: going into it, or a different mindset going into it,
28:43
Speaker 1: maybe they would have thought, I'm going to try something
28:46
Speaker 1: else alongside this and see if something else picks my
28:48
Speaker 1: interest as well. I'm going to look at other options
28:50
Speaker 1: for my life where I can be true, literally passionate
28:52
Speaker 1: about what I do, and maybe that diverts me down
28:57
Speaker 1: a different path in my life. Okay, so yes, you
29:02
Speaker 1: do have to be in it to win it, but
29:05
Speaker 1: you have to look at risks, like, for example, with
29:09
Speaker 1: the lottery you've got to be in it to win it.
29:12
Speaker 1: And it's all well and good to highlight the people
29:14
Speaker 1: that one, but there are millions of people that didn't win.
29:16
Speaker 1: But it's not that bad because a ticket is probably
29:19
Speaker 1: not that expensive. Like, I know that statistically the likelihood
29:23
Speaker 1: of me winning the lottery is fucking low. But if
29:27
Speaker 1: someone said, let's go in on a lottery ticket to
29:28
Speaker 1: buy this thing, me spending ten dollars on a lottery
29:31
Speaker 1: ticket is something I'm willing to lose. I'm willing to
29:33
Speaker 1: take that risk because the risk is not that terrible
29:38
Speaker 1: to lose, and the reward would be fucking amazing. But
29:41
Speaker 1: I know that the likelihood of that reward is super
29:43
Speaker 1: super low. So okay, So basically, what does this mean
29:46
Speaker 1: for you? If we're looking at how do we apply
29:49
Speaker 1: if you haven't already gathered because I've given you so
29:51
Speaker 1: many like I've gone on so many tangents. But if
29:54
Speaker 1: you're thinking, how do I apply this survivorship bias to
29:56
Speaker 1: my life? This is what I want you to think about.
30:00
Speaker 1: No One, It's all about calculated risks. Take the fucking risks.
30:03
Speaker 1: I'm the biggest advocate for taking risks. If you don't
30:06
Speaker 1: take risks, then what is life? Right? But it's a
30:10
Speaker 1: calculated risk. How can I not At the end of
30:13
Speaker 1: the day, it's still a risk. It's not about being
30:15
Speaker 1: so prepared that it no longer becomes a risk, you know,
30:18
Speaker 1: it's like I've got to have everything right. Sometimes the
30:21
Speaker 1: point of a risk is you've got to lose something
30:22
Speaker 1: in order for a potential gain. That is, that's a risk.
30:25
Speaker 1: That is what a risk is, but calculated Okay. In
30:29
Speaker 1: other words, I might lose this thing for this potential gain,
30:34
Speaker 1: but is it is it something I'm not willing to lose.
30:37
Speaker 1: I would never risk something where I'm not willing to
30:40
Speaker 1: lose something. So when people were saying, have a home
30:43
Speaker 1: birth with your twins, I'm not. Really I'm not willing
30:45
Speaker 1: to take that risk. If I was willing to take
30:47
Speaker 1: that risk, it's a different story. But personally, I'm not
30:50
Speaker 1: willing to take the risk of losing my babies or
30:53
Speaker 1: sanity over a complication that happens, and then I'm so
30:57
Speaker 1: fuck it's just not a risk that I'm willing to do.
31:00
Speaker 1: So therefore, I mean, firstly, I had no interest in
31:03
Speaker 1: the first place, so that's one thing. But therefore I
31:05
Speaker 1: just wasn't going to do it because it's not something
31:07
Speaker 1: I've wanted to put myself into. If you look at
31:10
Speaker 1: like a business thing and you have to spend X
31:13
Speaker 1: amount of money, is it your last dollar? And if
31:16
Speaker 1: it is, are you willing to potentially lose down to
31:19
Speaker 1: your last dollar? Now, if you don't have dependence or
31:23
Speaker 1: a mortgage, you might say, you know what, I am
31:25
Speaker 1: willing to lose up to my last dollar because maybe
31:28
Speaker 1: you live at home and you don't pay rent and whatever,
31:30
Speaker 1: and you could and you actually can afford that risk,
31:33
Speaker 1: in which case do it. But then if you've got
31:36
Speaker 1: dependence and you're spending down to your literally your last
31:39
Speaker 1: dollar on a business thing, are you actually willing to
31:42
Speaker 1: take that risk? No? Right, because you need to feed
31:45
Speaker 1: your dependence. So calculated risks helps you take the risk
31:50
Speaker 1: knowing that you won't be absolutely fucked if it doesn't
31:55
Speaker 1: come to fruition. Okay, And the same thing goes for time.
31:58
Speaker 1: How much time are you willing to spend on something?
32:00
Speaker 1: I think it's always good to have a really healthy
32:03
Speaker 1: exit plan, even for things that you fucking love. And
32:06
Speaker 1: I'm including relationships in here. When you get into a
32:09
Speaker 1: relationship with someone You've got to know what does what
32:13
Speaker 1: does the exit plan look like if things were to
32:16
Speaker 1: go absolutely pair shaped? You know, do I have a
32:19
Speaker 1: skill set that I can lean back on if I
32:21
Speaker 1: choose to not work when I get married, which I
32:23
Speaker 1: think is what am I'm not even gonna like? Do
32:27
Speaker 1: I have my own access to my own money? Do
32:31
Speaker 1: I have all these things? And if the answer is no,
32:33
Speaker 1: then you need to reassess and take better calculated risks. Okay,
32:39
Speaker 1: but basically, don't risk something that you're not prepared to lose,
32:43
Speaker 1: or like when you're gambling, have you know a cutoff?
32:46
Speaker 1: Then another thing is you always have to focus on
32:49
Speaker 1: the entire data set to make an informed decision. Okay,
32:52
Speaker 1: So if you have more skills than the average person
32:58
Speaker 1: in this particular industry, then the likelihood of you succeeding
33:01
Speaker 1: more than the average person is going to be higher
33:03
Speaker 1: than the average person. And that's great. Okay. You might
33:06
Speaker 1: have a brilliant idea that is genuinely so unique, and
33:10
Speaker 1: you've done your research and you've searched high and low
33:13
Speaker 1: and it really is a unique idea, and you're like, no, no,
33:17
Speaker 1: I'm looking at as much of the data set as
33:19
Speaker 1: I can look at then you're like, well, then I'm
33:20
Speaker 1: willing to back myself and put some funds behind it
33:22
Speaker 1: because I've looked high and dry. It's not just like
33:24
Speaker 1: on a whim, I'm going to try and dry. I'm
33:26
Speaker 1: really so, I'm going to put some money behind this
33:28
Speaker 1: and try and make this business idea work. Those kinds
33:30
Speaker 1: of things are great. I'm the biggest advocate for, like,
33:33
Speaker 1: take that fucking risk and do the thing. Take the
33:36
Speaker 1: leap of faith, but don't do it under the guise
33:40
Speaker 1: if like, well, if you just slog it out hard enough.
33:42
Speaker 1: The thing that annoys me more so than just taking
33:44
Speaker 1: a risk is when you stay in something for longer
33:48
Speaker 1: because of this survivorship bias. That pisces me off more
33:51
Speaker 1: so than the risk itself, because failing from something from
33:54
Speaker 1: something that you risk isn't the end of the world. Okay,
33:57
Speaker 1: like a business idea or a bit of time whatever,
34:00
Speaker 1: But it's where you stay in something for so much
34:01
Speaker 1: longer because you are you've been fed the lie that
34:06
Speaker 1: you know it's just you know, it's a time thing.
34:08
Speaker 1: And the longer you're stay in it, the closer you
34:10
Speaker 1: are to succeeding. Because that doesn't apply in all things
34:13
Speaker 1: in life. Another thing is make sure you're not shying
34:17
Speaker 1: away from mistakes, because mistakes will fast track your ability
34:21
Speaker 1: to read the data. They will fast track your learning.
34:24
Speaker 1: As uncomfortable as they are, they are really good. They're
34:27
Speaker 1: really good at telling you where you need to get
34:29
Speaker 1: like learn more or sharpen your skills, or where you
34:32
Speaker 1: need to just fucking walk away. Sometimes a mistake serves
34:36
Speaker 1: you to be like, I'm glad I learned this lesson
34:39
Speaker 1: now and not further down the line. So this is
34:41
Speaker 1: the time that I pike. This is the time that
34:43
Speaker 1: I fucking call it, And that's a good thing. We're
34:46
Speaker 1: so ashamed because of this savivorship bias and that the
34:49
Speaker 1: glory on oh these people that are then we feel
34:51
Speaker 1: ashamed to quit or to wrap it up, or to
34:55
Speaker 1: walk away, or to be like I'm not going to
34:56
Speaker 1: invest any more time or energy into it. And even
34:59
Speaker 1: when we do do it, we don't really talk about
35:00
Speaker 1: it because it's embarrassing or whatever the reason. And I
35:03
Speaker 1: think that that's really sad, because those are the stories
35:05
Speaker 1: that we learn so much from. Those are the stories
35:08
Speaker 1: that if we heard more of them, we would be
35:10
Speaker 1: probably better at making strategic decisions for our life. We'd
35:13
Speaker 1: save so much more time, and we'd get to where
35:15
Speaker 1: we need to go, probably a whole lot faster, because
35:17
Speaker 1: we're not wasting time down a certain avenue, not making
35:21
Speaker 1: the right mistakes, you know, making the mistakes that we
35:24
Speaker 1: need to make. For every success story that has inspired you,
35:30
Speaker 1: I want you to look at why others failed doing
35:34
Speaker 1: the same or a similar thing. Not because you're like, oh,
35:37
Speaker 1: I want to just demotivate myself, but it's to learn. Okay.
35:42
Speaker 1: So if we're talking about something like the arts, that's
35:44
Speaker 1: a little bit harder because you know, sometimes it really
35:48
Speaker 1: comes down to personal taste, if the role was available, whatever.
35:51
Speaker 1: But if you're looking at businesses, let's look at businesses
35:54
Speaker 1: that failed and why they failed, because you can learn
35:57
Speaker 1: more from failures other people's failures as well well then
36:00
Speaker 1: from certain successes. So it's like, okay, look at this
36:03
Speaker 1: person who started an app and who you know, a
36:05
Speaker 1: workout app. Okay, this person started a workout app, it's
36:08
Speaker 1: blown up. Fuck, that's amazing. I'm going to do the
36:10
Speaker 1: same thing and it's going to blow up as well.
36:12
Speaker 1: Why didn't I try and find people or look at
36:14
Speaker 1: examples or try and research examples of people that tried
36:16
Speaker 1: to do workout app as well and it failed. And
36:19
Speaker 1: why was that lack of audience? Was a lack of preparation?
36:24
Speaker 1: Was it lack of Why the fuck did it fail? Okay,
36:26
Speaker 1: let's just look at all the avenues as to why
36:28
Speaker 1: it failed. Because if you're going to follow someone's footsteps
36:31
Speaker 1: because they've been such a massive success and you don't
36:33
Speaker 1: know them personally, especially, then you need to look at
36:36
Speaker 1: equivalent examples of people that tried to do the same
36:39
Speaker 1: thing and didn't work out. So you can get smarter
36:42
Speaker 1: so you can out smart the future. You can look
36:45
Speaker 1: at potential things that could go wrong and plan for
36:49
Speaker 1: them before they happen. Okay, so that way, still go
36:53
Speaker 1: for that thing, but you're going to go in better
36:55
Speaker 1: prepared now instead of so basically, instead of trying to
37:01
Speaker 1: learn from successes and trying to copy them, you're going
37:03
Speaker 1: to learn from other people's mistakes, so you're future proofing yourself.
37:08
Speaker 1: So this again, it's not to make you less motivated
37:13
Speaker 1: or de incentivize you from doing these things. It's to
37:15
Speaker 1: get you smarter, sharper, and better prepared for that thing.
37:20
Speaker 1: And also it's to open your eyes and broaden your
37:23
Speaker 1: horizons on all the other possibilities that are out there
37:26
Speaker 1: for you. Because if you look at this business plan
37:29
Speaker 1: that someone did, oh my god, they're a billionaire now
37:31
Speaker 1: because they did this thing. I'm going to follow in
37:32
Speaker 1: their footsteps. I'm gonna follow exactly their playbook. I'm going
37:35
Speaker 1: to do that playbook and la la la. But instead,
37:38
Speaker 1: if you were to look at someone who tried to
37:39
Speaker 1: do what they did and failed, but then you keep
37:42
Speaker 1: looking into that, looking into that, you're going to discover things,
37:44
Speaker 1: and you're going to learn about things, and you're going
37:46
Speaker 1: to become interested in things that you probably never would
37:49
Speaker 1: have stumbled across in the past. You're going to start
37:51
Speaker 1: to see pockets where there's opportunity where well, that was
37:56
Speaker 1: a failure, but that just you know, like kind of
37:59
Speaker 1: with the aeroplane thing, you're not looking at what isn't there.
38:03
Speaker 1: So when you start looking at failures, you start to
38:05
Speaker 1: see pockets in people's like pockets like gaps where people
38:10
Speaker 1: didn't even realize something needed to be done. And that's
38:13
Speaker 1: where you start looking at, oh, this is a need
38:15
Speaker 1: in the market that other people haven't pounced on yet,
38:18
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at this big thing that's already super popular,
38:21
Speaker 1: where if I look at the failures, maybe I'm able
38:23
Speaker 1: to identify real needs within the market, or real needs
38:28
Speaker 1: within you know, this particular community that hasn't been serviced yet.
38:32
Speaker 1: And that's because I've thought outside the box and I'm
38:34
Speaker 1: being a lot broader with my thinking. Let's say you're
38:36
Speaker 1: trying to make a podcast, and you're looking at the
38:39
Speaker 1: key players that are really successful, why don't I also
38:42
Speaker 1: look at other podcasters that had to fold or fail
38:44
Speaker 1: or that started making it then didn't make it, and
38:46
Speaker 1: then why and what was it about that? And then
38:48
Speaker 1: you start thinking about different niches and different ideas that
38:51
Speaker 1: people could be talking about it. Before you know it,
38:53
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, I'm actually going to still do a podcast,
38:55
Speaker 1: but it's going to be completely fucking different to the
38:57
Speaker 1: original one that I thought. And this one's quite different
38:59
Speaker 1: to what's been done before. So maybe I've got more
39:01
Speaker 1: of a chance with this because I've fleshed it out
39:03
Speaker 1: better and that kind of stuff. Okay, then I want
39:06
Speaker 1: you to talk about your setbacks more to other people.
39:10
Speaker 1: You will be surprised at the moment you talk about
39:14
Speaker 1: your setbacks vulnerably in a vulnerable way. They will start
39:18
Speaker 1: talking about theirs, and again that's where you learn. And
39:22
Speaker 1: because you're having a conversation, you start kind of brainstorming,
39:26
Speaker 1: or you start fleshing things out and pulling things apart,
39:28
Speaker 1: and you know, investigating things so much better in conversation
39:33
Speaker 1: because you've got two people that probably have had setbacks
39:35
Speaker 1: or failures, and you're in a position where you're both
39:38
Speaker 1: feeling vulnerable and open because you're both sharing your experiences.
39:41
Speaker 1: So you start going back and forth and you start
39:44
Speaker 1: and before you know it, you're like, I'm now learning
39:46
Speaker 1: so much more about my own failure and I'm actually
39:50
Speaker 1: getting motivated again for the next thing that I'm going
39:52
Speaker 1: to do because I've learned. Okay, well that's where I
39:54
Speaker 1: did wrong. They also did wrong there, and but then
39:56
Speaker 1: they also tried something different. And then next time, speak
40:00
Speaker 1: about your setbacks more, talk about it, because that is like,
40:05
Speaker 1: your setbacks are such a tool. It is such a tool.
40:08
Speaker 1: I remember I had this like T shirt business that
40:11
Speaker 1: I like singlets and T shirts with like that I
40:13
Speaker 1: would have printed on it, and I tried to make
40:15
Speaker 1: it work and then obviously just never went anywhere. And
40:19
Speaker 1: for ages. I never really spoke about it, like, not
40:22
Speaker 1: because I was so majorly ashamed, but I was like, oh,
40:24
Speaker 1: that was just like that was just one thing in
40:25
Speaker 1: my past that I tried to do and I filed
40:27
Speaker 1: or whatever, and I never really spoke about it. But
40:29
Speaker 1: the fact that, like, there was so many things that
40:32
Speaker 1: I did wrong, and even if I did do it
40:34
Speaker 1: all right, would it have succeeded. I don't know. But
40:36
Speaker 1: it's interesting to look at things that I have failed
40:39
Speaker 1: at and the things that I was willing to really
40:41
Speaker 1: talk about in depth, or things that I just brush
40:42
Speaker 1: onto the ruggers, like oh, I kind of gave up,
40:44
Speaker 1: And what I would tell people if they asked what
40:46
Speaker 1: was happening with the singlets and t sh, I'm like, oh, no,
40:48
Speaker 1: I stopped doing that. I just stopped doing that. But
40:50
Speaker 1: in reality, the reason I stopped doing it is because
40:52
Speaker 1: it was failing miserably, like very quickly on and I
40:55
Speaker 1: just didn't have the tools or the knowledge or the
40:57
Speaker 1: resources or anything. I had no fucking idea what I
40:59
Speaker 1: was doing. It was just a big flop, but it
41:02
Speaker 1: was I think it's important to actually talk about it
41:04
Speaker 1: a little bit more than just being ashamed and brushing
41:06
Speaker 1: it under the rug, because the more you talk about it,
41:09
Speaker 1: the more it opens your eyes for other things in life.
41:15
Speaker 1: And yeah, so every time you're about to do something,
41:17
Speaker 1: just ask yourself what data could be missing before I
41:20
Speaker 1: make this decision. So I want you, guys, to make
41:23
Speaker 1: the decisions. I want you to make those bold choices.
41:26
Speaker 1: I want you to take the leap. I want you
41:27
Speaker 1: to take risks. I want you to do it all,
41:29
Speaker 1: but I want you to do it in a way
41:31
Speaker 1: that serves you best. Be strategic and be a critical thinker.
41:35
Speaker 1: And then when you do take those decisions and those risks,
41:38
Speaker 1: and when you do take that leap of faith, you'll
41:39
Speaker 1: feel well equipped to do it. Even if it fails,
41:42
Speaker 1: you'll feel better about it because you're like, I went
41:44
Speaker 1: in this as planned as I could have been, as
41:46
Speaker 1: prepared as I could have been, knowing there's still a
41:49
Speaker 1: lot that I can't prepare for, and I feel good
41:51
Speaker 1: about it. I'm proud of myself for doing that work
41:53
Speaker 1: and I feel good about it. And in the process,
41:55
Speaker 1: I've probably discovered way more that I could. You know,
41:59
Speaker 1: take with me, So I'm more prepared than if I'd
42:03
Speaker 1: just gone in blindly. All Right, so hopefully that episode
42:07
Speaker 1: helped you, and hopefully you're going to be less biased
42:09
Speaker 1: when people talk about successes or this or that, then
42:11
Speaker 1: you're able to look at the bigger picture. I'm not
42:13
Speaker 1: trying to turn you into a cynic. I want you
42:15
Speaker 1: to be a good critical thinker, that's all. And if anything,
42:17
Speaker 1: you should be more optimistic because you've got more data
42:20
Speaker 1: to work with, so you've got a sharper idea of
42:23
Speaker 1: what can actually be done. So anyway, that is the
42:26
Speaker 1: episode for today. I love you guys so much. That's all.
42:31
Speaker 1: As always, remember be kind to yourself, be kind to
42:33
Speaker 1: your brain, don't take shit from anyone, and especially don't
42:36
Speaker 1: take shit from yourself. Don't care