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Five Cubs who need to bounce back next year · North Side Territory: A Chicago Cubs Podcast

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Welcome into North side territory file territory networks, Cubs podcast.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: I'm Sahadev Sharma with my partner, Patrick Mooney. We are
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: your Cubs beat writers over at the athletic Patrick. We
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: are going to talk about five Cubs who need to
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: bounce back, step up, whatever you want to call it
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: in 2027. Uh, they, they weren't some of these guys,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: they weren't like dreadful seasons or the worst season. Uh,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: You just expect them to do a little bit more.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Or they had a down season compared to previous years
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: for them. Whatever it may be, I would guess everyone
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: on this list wants to have a better 2027 than
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: they had 26. We're going to start with Nico Horner,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: who is a fan favorite and that's well-earned and well-deserved.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: still a great defender at second base, had this type
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: of April that made me wonder if he was a
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: different type of player in a good way. He was
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: taking more walks. He was hitting for power. It was
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: a really odd April in that that's not Nico Horner.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: And it was like, what type of player is this
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: guy now? The rest was below average and there was
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: no like turning point where he went back to being
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Nico like first half second half I looked month by
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: month it was all over the place like he had
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: a good August I want to say so it was
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: like April and August and then the rest were below
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: average uh some of those months were terrible and I
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: know fans hate this and I know um like not
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: just fans there are people all around that observe baseball
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: that just hate this concept, but I think a lot
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: of it is just like, Nico is Nico. Nothing really
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: changed underneath the hood, outside. All that happened was, this
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: is a guy that doesn't walk a ton and doesn't
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: hit for power, and the ball was hit into the
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: glove far too often. That's just what happens sometimes with
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: a guy with his profile. Craig Council said that. I
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: think it's frustrating to hear. I think it's unsatisfying because
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: you want a nail down a reason. I just like, it's,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think like if we asked Nico Horner right now,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: like what, like he's going to tell us that he
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: needs to be better and there are things he needs
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: to improve upon. I'm sure he has a plan. I
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: just don't think it was like some complete changed player
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: that had a down season.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: Nico's had this sort of give and take throughout. I
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: think most of his career, whether it was the, you know,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: does he need to like, bulk up and maybe get
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: more power, but then does he maybe become more susceptible
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: to injuries or lose something defensively in that process? Obviously,
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: a guy who can make that much contact, you wonder
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: if he changes his decision-making a little bit, what would
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: that mean? But do you give up something in that process?
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I think he's talked about generating more power because he knows–
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: where the game is heading and what gets, gets you
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: paid as a player and what keeps you on the
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: field as a player. Obviously he's still very capable major
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: league shortstop. I mean, a backup shortstop at this point,
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: but he slid in there when Dansby was sidelined with
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: that oblique injury. And that is valuable. I mean, his
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: overall performance in baseball reference gives them two plus war.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: I think it was just, it was just weird. Like that,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Contract extension coming sort of like right out of opening day.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: I forget the exact timing, but it was kind of
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: a little bit of weird timing. It felt like they
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: were getting pretty close there to letting things just sort
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: of play out. And when he's hitting those home runs
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: in April, I think it was like four in April,
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: by April. And then like you're thinking, oh, he is
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: a nine-figure player. Oh, maybe he could have been like,
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: number one free agent out there because he could play
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: shortstop and brings all these other intangibles and then he
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: sort of fell off but that good start kind of
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: gave him a little bit of cover um and look
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: he's not expected to be like their number three number
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: two hitter anything like that but they needed a spark
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: in september uh he didn't quite provide it i don't
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: think that means uh he's toast or anything like that
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: obviously we but i think we think he's probably gonna
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: bounce back that's why we're leading with him first but
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: just a just a weird year all around for him
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: and not quite that i think you talk the cubs
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: have talked about this in the past of like sometimes
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: you need those five or six war seasons of guys
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: you don't expect and nico has delivered that level of
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: production in the past he just didn't this year Yeah.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: He's generally like a four, four and a half win guy,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: basically since he's been getting 500 played his appearances or more,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: like since 2022 is first, you know, full, full season, uh,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: where he was healthy and getting everyday starts. Uh, he's basically,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: it's been like 4.3.8 war to 4.8 war, like somewhere
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: in that range is what he's been. And then this
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: past season, it was 2.8. Um, You look at the
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: underlying numbers. He wasn't pulling the ball more. He wasn't
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: hitting more fly balls. He was actually hitting, like, more
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: line drives than last year. That's a good thing. But, like,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: the BABIP was way down. The randomness of it was
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: a little bad. And, like, he went from a career-high
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: 110 weighted runs graded plus to a career-low, as far
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: as a full season goes, 88. And a lot of
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: that is just so unsatisfying. But I think a lot
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: of it was luck. Uh, there's probably some little things, uh,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: quality of contact and things like that, that he wants
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: to work on. Um, you talk to his hitting coaches,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: like they said, the data of like contact point and
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: swing plane was very similar. So I don't think it
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: was like a huge, uh, you know, massive change of
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: the type of player. Uh, I expect him to bounce back.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: I expect him to be the type of player that
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: we've gotten used to. Uh, next player. I'm not, I just,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: I guess I don't know. who he is anymore. Like
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I shouldn't say anymore. He's he, this was his second
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: full season. I want to say it was his second
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: full season, right? Because he'd never had, we're talking about
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Michael Bush and he didn't have, if I'm remembering his
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: career correctly, he didn't have a full season with the Dodgers.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: Is that right?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Oh, I guess.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: Wait, wait, wait. He's been with the Cubs. Three, three
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: full major league. Yeah.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Sorry. 150 plus games.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So I forgot that last year wasn't his first year
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: with the Cubs. This was his third year. And it
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: was actually not that too dissimilar from his first year.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So maybe, maybe 2025 was the outlier. But the power, ultimately,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: here's the thing. This was a guy that hit 34 homers,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: had a 140 way to runs graded plus. That is,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: you know, elite territory that is pushing up to like
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: that's obvious all-star. It's one of the best first basemen
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: in the game. And then he just went down to like,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: kind of like, okay, 112 weighted runs graded plus. He
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: was playing against lefties more, 20 homers. Michael Bush was
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: a star in the playoffs in 2025. He was not
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: a bad player. He just wasn't this power hitting stud
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: that he was in 2025. I talked to him and
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I talked to Dustin Kelly, the hitting coach. This was
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: probably like end of August, beginning of September when we
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: started having these chats. He was showing a little bit
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: of power, a little more power at that point in time.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: It was not what they wanted, either the staff or Bush.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: According to Bush, he felt like he wasn't pulling the
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: ball as much. The data backs that up. Kelly had
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: something really interesting that when I dug into it, I
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: thought like he was absolutely right. And basically he said,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: They want him to be more aggressive. They're like, if
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: you look, his numbers, he's walking a ton more. He was.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: He walked a ton more than he has in the past.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: They're like, we almost don't want that. Be more aggressive
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: in those counts, those 3-1 and 2-0 counts. I don't
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: have the numbers in front of me, but if you
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: look at the piece that we wrote, as far as
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: swinging at 3-1 and 2-0, the percentage of swings he
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: took in those counts went way down from 2025 to 2026.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Like those are hitters counts. Power hitters need to be
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: aggressive in those moments. There are some players that just
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: that that that isn't their game. That's Michael Bush's game.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Be be aggressive in that moment. And I think you'll
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: you can bounce back. But we also just cannot rule
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: out the fact that 2025 was outlier. I don't know.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: We don't have enough data here or information or I
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: don't know what type of player he fully is. If
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: you believe in that power, which he has hit for
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: power in the minors, and he was expected to be
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: a power hitter, I don't know if 2025 is what
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: to expect going forward. I do expect more power than
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: last season, though, this past season. I mean, he went
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: from a 261 ISO to a 152 ISO. that's those
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: are two completely different players you're talking about like a
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: top 10 i look at maybe not top 10 but
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: you know top 15 top 20 iso to like just
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: like an average power hitter below average power hitter it's
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: it's a it was it was a jarring drop.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah i think everyone hoped around the Cubs after watching
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: last year's playoffs, like, oh, maybe this catapults him or
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: kind of keeps him at that level. I think it's
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: more of now it's like, look, MLB trade rumors projects
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: his arbitration salary will be $ 5. 4 million next season. Obviously,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: next season is very much up in the air in
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: terms of what it will look like. But he's entering,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: he's in his late 20s. He was blocked by the Dodgers.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: He played at UNC, so he kind of entered the
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: system a little bit later. Very nice player. You want
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: him on your team. You're not going to find like
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: a better upgrade realistically, like in terms of the price
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: point you're looking for, the skills you're looking for. But
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: this is kind of like beginning of probably the back
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: half of his time with the Cubs and like what
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: he's fit in very nicely on that infield and he's
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: become a good defender at first base. You're working with
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: all these gold lovers. I think there's a very high
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: floor with him. I think you kind of know what
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: you should get in terms of a baseline. It's just
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: like how much more is in there. I think you
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: don't really know. I mean, that's why they play the
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: games right. But I mean, I think if you're like
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: building this lineup, like in, wondering if Ian Happ and
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Seiya Suzuki have played their last games for the Cubs
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: like can you count on Michael Bush being like you
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: think he's going to hit 35 home runs again or
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: is he more like 18 to 20 and still sort
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: of figuring things out I I don't know the answer
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: but I think the Cubs are going to have to
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: find out given all the other work they have to do.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: This offseason yeah it very interesting, uh, dilemma. I don't
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: know if it's a dilemma. It's just a very interesting
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: situation because if he is a 35 Homer guy, you
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: feel much better about the offense, maybe not being number
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: one in baseball, but top five, even with losing say
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: in half, uh, just because him bouncing back. Now you
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: have him with Pete and Bregman. It, you feel a
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: lot better about how the offense looks. Uh, you know, I,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I just don't, uh, I just– I still– I don't feel–
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: like I feel confident Nico Horner is going to bounce back.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I just don't know what to expect with Michael Bush. Patrick,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I want you to take– start off on the next guy.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I have some thoughts here and it– like I– there's
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: a reason we didn't– in my opinion, there's a reason
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: we didn't include him in our piece. We had four
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: guys in our piece. We're going to talk about five guys.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: But Dansby Swanson, give me your thoughts on Dansby Swanson
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and the season he had.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: I'm looking it up right now. Um, just cause I
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: think the fan graphs dollar dollars metric is worthwhile. And
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: it essentially kind of, uh, a formula to calculate what
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: a player might get paid on the open market as
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: a free agent. And we're looking back on that billion
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: dollar shortstop class that was coming out of the 2022 season. Um,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: I always read our Phillies coverage on the athletic. I
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: always just find them sort of fascinating. Dave Dombrowski's press conference,
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: Matt Gelb's stories, they're talking about Trey Turner being put
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: on notice in terms of being an everyday shortstop next year.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: He'll get a chance, but we'll see where it goes.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Carlos Correa has been injured. Zinner Bogarts had some ups
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: and downs, and it goes back to what the Cubs
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: thought initially, that Dansby would be the one who stays
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: at shortstop the longest and play the position at the
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: highest level, and that's borne out. And looking at fan
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: graphs here, converting his war into free agent dollars over
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: the last four years, Dansby, $ 38. 6 million, $ 33. 9 million, $ 27 million.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: even this year, 27.1 million. Like this guy has delivered
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: elite defense, just enough power and kind of all the
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: intangibles you hope for. Now, is he going to lose
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: a step at some point? His arm is very accurate.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: He makes the throws, but it's not like, doesn't really
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: like blow you away. I think some of that is
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: probably by design is probably smart. on his part. But
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: if he does, if he has another oblique injury, if
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: there's a, you know, like he's had a couple injuries
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: here and there that not quite the same Ironman he
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: was with the Braves, you know, he does mostly play
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: every day here. I think it's another name to sort
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: of circle, especially if, if Suzuki and Hap leave and
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: just your position player group maybe has a little more uncertainty,
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: maybe some more upside of Pedro Ramirez and Matt Shaw, like,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: take huge steps forward. It is a young man's game,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: but I think us covering the team and watching it
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: every day, get less worked up about Dansby. I mean,
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: you remember how it was these calls to bench him
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: and he wound up having this like insane hot streak.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: I think that's part of it too. He is kind
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: of a notoriously streaky hitter, but he, he kind of
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: winds up in the same, We don't know how next
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: year will unfold, but he'll probably have a similar season.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Let's be honest.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Right. Yeah. That's like, yeah, it's the same. Yeah. That's
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: kind of where I met. Like, I don't like he did.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: He had a slightly down year offensively. I mean, I
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: know if you're focused on batting average, it was a,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: it was a bad year. It was his worst year
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: with the Cubs, but just overall, like I look at
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: way to runs creative plus, because it's just very easy.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Like overall overall, like offense, where are you at? He
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: was at 93. That's that's worse than last year, which
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: was a hundred. And I think it's the worst of
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: his Cubs career. It is 98 was in 2024 was
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: his previous low. So 93 isn't good. I just don't like, like, look,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: this is what I expect from Dansby Swanson. And I,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: he has higher expectations than, We don't need to get
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: into all the details, but he came into spring training
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: and had a revamped offseason, different way of going about business.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that worked or not as far
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: as if he felt good about how things were working.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think it worked the way he wanted it to. Ultimately,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: I just think he's like a league average bat that
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: can hit you about 20 homers. and play really damn
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: good shortstop defense. And that's really valuable. Expected stats, whatever
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: you want to look at. They were down this year.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: He did not have a good offensive year. The injury
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: cost him a month. Is that right? It was a month.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: It wasn't more than that. The reason I wouldn't include
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: him in a piece about guys that need to bounce
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: back is because I think he is what he is
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: an elite defender at a really important position. And like,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: if you get like close to league average offense, that's
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: about what you, you, you've gotten his entire Cubs career.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: It's slight fluctuations around average, slightly above, slightly below. Uh,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: if you can get 20 to 25 home runs from
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: him and a full season and, and you know, not
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: like he's streaky. That's the other thing. I think you
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: mentioned that, um, council has said that openly about him.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: This is not like some secret. I just think he
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: is who he is. Uh, and that's not a rip.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: That's not a knock. He's a good player. I think
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: people want like these perfect all around great players all
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: across the diamond. And, and you look at his contract,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: obviously he's, he's getting paid a ton. I think he's like,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: especially for that class, what he is like, I think
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: he's a perfectly fine player. Um, He also right now
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: hits like eighth or ninth. I know that the Cubs
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: are going to need more offense if they don't have
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: say a Suzuki and me and app in their lineup.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure if we're asking Dansby Swanson to get
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: you a lot more offense, maybe a little bit more
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: offense than last year, but a lot more offense. I
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: think you're asking for too much. I think you're asking
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: for something that that's not him or like he's been
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: that for like one season. And that was before he
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: came to the Cubs. Like he's just an average offensive
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: player and it's a lot of, power. It was a
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: different profile this year too. More walks, fewer strikeouts, just
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: kind of a weird season. I don't know what to
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: take from it other than like, eh, he wasn't that great. And,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: but like, I, I know what he is. He's a
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: great defender and I'll take that. I don't think there's
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: any excuses for this next player. Like he has to
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: be better. There is, if he's not better, this is,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: this is a bad situation for the Cubs. Edward Cabrera,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: um what you asked counsel a question at some point
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: do you remember the wording he used like how would
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: you evaluate uh edward cabrera's season i i don't want
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: to uh misquote him but if you can't remember that's
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: okay but it was a it it wasn't like he
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: was like defending him and saying like, here are all
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: the reasons why it didn't go well. But it's like,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: sometimes you go into, you, you acquire a guy, these,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: these things happen. And he just didn't have the type
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: of season that they expected. It was poor performance. The
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: stuff was down from the beginning of the year. They,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: they got some of the stuff back. His curve ball
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: never came back. It was, it was way off. They
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: wonder if that was primarily because of the blister or,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: The blister issues cost him significantly in different ways, I believe.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: And then he had that hamstring issue that popped up
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: when they were in New York. I cannot remember what
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: time of year it was, but that cost him a
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: chunk of time. It was in June. That cost him
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: a chunk of time as well. Injuries, and I think
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: more concerning than the injuries was the ineffectiveness. The stuff
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: wasn't there. The swing and miss wasn't there. He didn't
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: look good when he was on the mound. It was,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: and I've said this before, I think I've said this
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: on the podcast. It reminded me a lot of 2018, uh,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: you Darvish where, when he was out on the mound,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I'm just like attack. Why is every count going full?
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Why does every account feel like every at bat feel
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: like it's like 10 pitches. He could not finish guys off.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: He walked too many guys. it was a tough year
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: to watch and not what the Cubs hope for or
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: what anyone or Cabrera expects of himself.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: Since you brought this up, I'm not referencing my own work.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: That would be very indulgent. But the idea with council
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: was like, look, to use the council term, look, you guys,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: we were in the Wrigley interview room and I basically said,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: you walk into that clubhouse and talk to almost any
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: guy in there and they'll rave about the coaches and
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: the communication and the planning. And, you know, you could,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: it's not hard to find, you know, people in that
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: front office who were really intrigued by Eric Cabrera and
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: they were on him for multiple trading cycles. And like,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: so like, like why hasn't this clicked? Like kind of
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: given all that and, you know, council said it hasn't clicked.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: You spend a lot of time figuring those out. I
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: wish every story was a success story. This one right
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: now is not.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: We're certainly going to keep working on trying to find
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: answers there and trying to find solutions. I know it's
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: something that's very important. I wish I could tell you
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: every story is a success story, but we haven't done
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: it here. And we appreciate counsels. Honesty that it was
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: obviously he didn't bury the player there. He did not
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: say anything like controversial, but it was very clear eyed
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: view of it. And I think what should concern and
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: frustrate the Cubs is that they got this guy thinking
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: we had this, these years of club control as insurance
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: against him, like blowing out his elbow or shoulder, whatever,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of red flags were in his medical file.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: with the Marlins and he didn't stay healthy and he
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: wasn't very good. Uh, but it wasn't that acute arm injury, uh, that,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: that led to this. And so I think trying to
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: fix this, like won't the lockout won't help. Obviously they
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: can talk to him now and after the lockout, they'll
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: be able to, but not having that like kind of
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: continuous rhythm or like, uh, kind of a static spring
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: training where you can kind of, build up to and
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: build out of it. Like, you know, you're looking at
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: a best case scenario of probably another spring training scramble,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: which we saw coming out of the last lockout. It
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: was condensed. It was like, all right, get yourself together
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: and go. Like, we're taking stock of where pitchers have
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: been in the off season. Like, where are they at
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: in their progressions now? But, you know, you can... So
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: all of that, you know, I think... I guess he
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: has the talent for sure. He has done it before.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: But I don't think it's like an ideal. These aren't
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: ideal circumstances. It's sort of hope for him to put
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: it all together this offseason. But they also have so
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: many holes in their pitching staff that they're going to
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: have to really put a lot of effort into this
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: and hope for the best.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they need him to bounce back. They need a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: lot of things to go right pitching-wise. We'll see what
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: type of moves they make and what additions they make.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: But he's going to be a part of this rotation,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: assuming help. And he needs to be a strong part
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: of this rotation for things to go well in 2027.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: We talk about a weird spring training, disjointed, whatever it
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: may be. Daniel Palencia didn't have a normal spring training,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: but he was awesome. during his time in spring training
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: because he was pitching in the world baseball classic for the, uh, uh, Venezuela. And,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: and was, I almost said Valenzuela, like Fernando Valenzuela. And
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: I was like, that's not the name of the country. Uh, uh, uh,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: and he was dominant. He was awesome. He was like,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: no doubt closer. Uh, I was getting texts from people
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: with the organization saying like when he was with them, like,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: when he was with the club, uh, at spring training,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: like he looks amazing the way he's talking. He's so
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: confident about himself. Uh, like they thought he was going
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: to have like this amazing season. Uh, and his performance
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: in the world baseball classic led me to write that,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: you know, like I try and do like a five
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: bold predictions type thing every, every spring. And, um, you know,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: I don't always like full throatedly believe these things, but
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: I want them to be you know, I don't want
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: them to be like, Pete Gromstrong is going to be good. Uh,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: I wanted to try and be a little bit bold. And,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: and the, my point for making this claim was watching
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Palencia during the WBC, the way he came into camp,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: all of that. I, I said, the Cubs won't be
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: looking for a closer at the trade deadline. And I
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: like was dead wrong. Like they need as much help
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: with the bullpen as they could get. Um, you know, uh,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much I think you wrote, wrote
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: that part, but, and we don't know how much that
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: impacted him. The, the WBC, uh, being ready a little
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: bit earlier. Uh, what, what did, how did it impact him?
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I know he didn't have, he
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: didn't look right all season long. He had flashes where
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: it was like, there's the guy. Uh, but it wasn't like,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: it wasn't just like this sustained success that we saw
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: in 2025, uh, his breakout, um, I like, this is
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: not a guy that I'm like super concerned about. Like,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Oh no, I don't know if he can ever find it.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Like we saw enough flashes that I know it's there,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: but also like, you know, relievers are volatile and I,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: we just get these yearly, monthly, whatever weekly reminders about
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: that during the season. It's like these, these things are
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: hard to predict with relievers. And like, I was so
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: sure he was going to have a dominant season after
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: watching him in the WBC, but obviously that's not what happened.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: No, I'm with you. It was an amazing scene of
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: Pete Crow Armstrong talking about his World Baseball Classic experience
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: and someone asking him sort of a softball question about
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: seeing your teammate close it out. And Pete was not
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: really feeling that line of questioning. And as Pete's talking
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: to us, behind us, Palencia walks in with this gold
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: medal around his neck and his Venezuela jersey and all
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: this stuff. And I'm I don't know if Pete gave
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: a single bird or a double.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Bird or an expletive.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh, what an amazing scene that was. Palencia,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: I see a parallel to Michael Bush. If you saw
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: it in the playoffs on a big stage and wondering,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: would that transfer or how would that catapult him? Just
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: didn't happen. You can't prove or disprove what the WBC
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: meant to his season's inconsistencies. The reality is the Cubs
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: don't want to have a choice but to give him
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: another shot, not as like a no-doubt opening day closer,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: but they're going to have to– they're going to give
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: him chances as well they should. I mean, he's got
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: great stuff. I personally– I like listening to Palencia. I
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: think he's just like an interesting guy. Like he's honest.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: He's emotional. I think he's grown over the years. Yeah, yeah.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: This year was not a good year, and with the
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: way relievers go, maybe that means he'll be awesome next year,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: but I guess you can't really count on it. That's
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: why they're going to throw just a lot of volume
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: at this bullpen problem and kind of see who clicks
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: and knowing that even when a guy does, he's probably
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: due for some regression shortly thereafter.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely. You just don't know what you're going to
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: get with a bullpen.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: I do.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not out on Daniel Palencia at all. Uh, I agree.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: He's grown. He's matured as a, as a person. And like,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: you can see it, you can, you can feel it
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: when talking to him, but then you also look at
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: it and then just like the way his body is
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: now too. It's like, he takes his off season so seriously.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: You can see it, uh, that I'm pretty sure that
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: was coming into camp in 2025, uh, where I noticed that,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: and he talked about it. Like, he just understood it better. Like,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: the point of why taking care of your body matters
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: so much. And it led to a great season in 25.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: And I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces right back
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: and has a very strong 2027. Who knows what the
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: WBC did to him. But I, you know, I have,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: it does feel like, I don't know, maybe it's just
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: confirmation bias, but it does feel like that had some
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: sort of, negative impact in the long run. Um, yeah,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: he's going to be important. There's a lot of, unlike
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: last year, there's a lot returning to the bullpen and
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: maybe that can be a good thing. And like you said,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: you throw a bunch against the wall and maybe they
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: have a Brad Keller in there or whatever. Uh, and,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: and things work out well, but, uh, we'll be talking
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: a lot about pitching over the couple, over the next
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks before this lockout starts, Patrick. So that
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: that's probably a good place to end it here because there's, there's,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: you're going to be annoyed with how much we talk pitching, uh,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: over the next couple of weeks. Uh, that is the
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: focus of the off season. Uh, this is a North
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: side territory. Make sure to rate, review, subscribe, subscribe to
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: the YouTube channel and subscribe to the athletic where Patrick
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: and I are on top of all things.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Cubs.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening and watching everyone. Take care.