Latest / Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs / CFB WEEK 6!!!
Transcript
- Greg: What's up everybody? Sorry that we are a day late and letting this come out on Thursday. And we are a host short, so we are we are leaving y'all hanging big time. Our our dear friend David Smith, who has been so gracious and so talented, honestly. He is he's put up quite the record so far. He had to he had to go be a good dad this evening and and coach some little league baseball, which after being in Truist Park last night, I'm hoping some of his sons can turn into pitchers for the Braves, 'cause good lord, we're gonna need it. But it is college football week six. And Brian, I'm not entirely sure if we've learned anything or not, but I think the record shows we've been profitable for those that are listening. So I'm gonna hand it off to you and let you talk about what you're drinking on tonight that's gonna make me very jealous because I hadn't had a drinking going on six months. And more importantly, what our record is for me, you and David to this point in the slate. And then we're gonna get in and do what we do every week. We're gonna give out some bad advice and I'm gonna sit there and watch how good that whiskey tastes. B Nobles, what you sipping on and how how are we looking record wise this point in the season? Brian: Sipping on a Weller 107. Greg: Love that red label. Brian: It's a from Buffalo Trace. yeah, 107 proof Buffalo Trace, a weeded bourbon. Kind of been hyped up recently, so the prices kind of have gone up more than what they should be. But it's still a good sipping whiskey, especially when you're talking about college football and watching college football. I love drinking on it. Anybody that's looking for it, you know, you get a lot of red fruits on the nose of it. Get some caramel and some bacon spices when you take a sip of it and then it finishes with a vanilla and cinnamon finish to it. So it's a good sipping whiskey. Greg: All right, now be honest with me, Brian. Did you did you embellish that description a little bit just because David wasn't here to hear it? Because you know he'd be drooling right now. Brian: I might have. I might have. I know he'll be listening, so Greg: How we how we doing record wise? I feel like we've been winning. I feel like the recaps have been pretty good, although I think I'm pretty much just treading water, but I I feel like we're seeing the board well. But give us some statistical data to back up my my good vibes. Brian: All right, as a group, we we've hit seventy-eight. We've lost fifty-five, puts us at right at fifty-nine percent. Our goal was to try to be at sixty, so we're right there at it. we're one good week away. since David joined the show, he's sixteen and seven, sits him right at about sixty-nine point five percent. I'm sitting at about sixty percent, and then you're sitting at fifty-two percent. My overall I mean I my total for the s we for the year so far I've hit thirty six, lost twenty four, and you've hit twenty six and lost twenty four. You've had a total of fifty plays, I've had a total of sixty. So we're right there round it. Greg: Well, I got a got a slightly different strategy rolling into this week. I'm I'm splattering the board a little bit more. I like I said I feel like I've seen the board well, but I I you know, I I don't want to claim bad beats. I mean we all know that's part of gambling, that's part of football. But I I've definitely been sitting on some numbers that came up a half a point short or some that, you know, were backdoor covers. But hey, that's that's all part of it. But we we live and we learn and that's why we tell you hey, drink responsibly and gamble responsibly. I've been giving them some thought as to how much I wanted to pick on and ridicule Mr. Smith for not being here for this show. But instead of doing that, I'm gonna give our listeners a favor and I'm gonna get straight into the slate, because that's all anybody's really here for. They're just here to see if we can help them make some money. So we're gonna start Friday night in Louisville, Kentucky. Brian, you and I both like Louisville, Kentucky. A whole hell of a lot to visit. But I don't think you'll be such a fan of the Louisville folks on this particular evening. Friday night in what used to be Papa John Stadium, who knows what the hell it may be called these days. We got Florida State Seminoles taking on the Louisville Cardinals. I'm seeing Louisville favored by three and a half total around 58 and a half, 59. Brian, I hate to dump it in your lap, so I'm gonna take a first stab at this and let you let you come in and back clean up on your team. I I I we we talk about it every week where one team just looks particularly good score-wise, and then they gotta go on the road next week. I I think that is w we've seen it with LSU beating Clemson and then LSU getting housed by Ole Miss and then Ole Miss getting housed by Florida and then Florida getting housed by Missouri. Well, Missouri's at home against AM, so I don't think they're gonna be the one to stumble. I think that Florida State score last week was a little bit deceiving. And I think them going on the road to a Louisville team who has got to be disappointed in themselves and only giving up three and a half. And I get it. It never makes me comfortable laying that half a tick over a full field goal. I just don't think this is competitive. I think Louisville pulls away and probably wins by double digits. So I got to play on Louisville minus three and a half. And I hate to do that to you to start the show, but hey, this is this is business. This isn't personal. So tell me tell me what you tell me what you got on this one. Brian: both these teams coming in playing on short rest. It al it seems like ACC loves Greg: They really do. Brian: to put Florida State in a Friday night road game. It just seems like every time we play a Friday night, it's in the road. So we got another one later this year in November in Pittsburgh. So that'll be fun too. Florida State looked dominant last week, like you talked about against Virginia. I always go back and rewatch the FSU games. I think that was more of a Virginia look bad than FSU looked good. I think that the quarterback You know, they knew he couldn't throw and they took advantage of that, sacked him ten times. Now they're playing a quarterback that can throw, so it could be a lot different. Norvell, I know our guy our people like to hear some stats. So Norvell is two and three at FSU in Friday night road games. Brahm is two and one in Friday night road game or Friday night games. Jeff Brahms lost last two in a row. Do we really think Jeff Brahm's gonna lose three in a row? I don't think so. Historically, an ACC Friday night game, the home team wins by average of nine points. So both these teams are not doing very good defensively. Louisville ranks 125th in defense. Florida State's right there with it with them. I thought hard about taking a under thirty-one and a half for the first half because this is a road game on a Friday night. I can't trust either one of these defenses to stop anybody, so I didn't think that was a good play. So my official play is going to be Louisville minus three and a half. You still got 60% of the money coming in after that Virginia game last week. You've got about 60% of the money coming in on Florida State. And the books won't let that line get down under three. So that tells you something. Greg: I'm telling you, and I know folks are either gonna get sick of hearing me saying this or they're actually gonna pay attention and learn something from it. When the book lays a three and a half and won't get off of it, it is almost always begging you to take the three and a half points. They want the it just I feel like it happens almost every time. so we got a little agreement on that. It's not the agreement we wanted, obviously. We'd both be pulling for the knolls, but like we said, business is business and that'll be one I know I know how those emotional hedge bets work. It that'll be a bet you won't be scared to lose. We gotta move on to Lincoln, Nebraska. And Brian, the Indiana Hoosers, Brian: I hope to lose that one. Greg: who, as we discussed, are apparently running college football now. they hadn't lost a game in forever, and they they're sitting right there near the top again, and they gotta travel to old Lincoln, Nebraska. Well, used to Indiana, Nebraska, you're thinking fifty two to nothing Nebraska, right? Not so much anymore. And as I was looking through this briefly, I learned something, Brian. I learned that Nebraska's five and Who knew? I had no clue they were five and So Went back and looked at the record. Not such an impressive five and to say that. but I think Nebraska's gonna do just enough scoring to make Indiana keep scoring in this one. So I'm gonna play on the total and go over forty eight and a half. I don't think Nebraska's gonna win. I'm not entirely sure they even keep it within double digits and and cover the seven and a half, but I do think they'll score enough that they'll get Indiana up into the high twenties or thirties. And I think we can get over that forty eight and a half total. Brian: I like I like that play a lot. I mean, this is the first time that you've had two undefeated teams with four more wins coming into Lincoln, Nebraska since two thousand one. And that was when it was Nebraska against Oklahoma. Like you said, Nebraska's five and but they've played a cakewalk of a schedule. Indy the the hardest game they've probably played this year was last week against Maryland. Indiana's coming in there on a twenty one game winning streak. Do we I think they're probably a little bit better than Maryland. Indiana has had some injuries at running back, but Josh Hoover's been able to throw the ball and pick up the slack. I feel like Indiana gets into the 40s in this game. I know there's going to be some wind. I know there's it's going to be a little bit of weather up there from the from the storm, but I feel like Nebraska doesn't have the defense to stop them. I think Indiana gets into the 40s. I think your 48 and a half is going to be safe. But I'm going to attack the Indiana team total over 27 and a half. Greg: I like that look a lot. I really do. All right, moving off of Indiana and Nebraska. We go to the Red River Rivalry. Used to be one of the biggest games every year. I got I got Texas laying seven and a half and a total at 40 and a half. That is that's a low number. And I'm gonna tell you it makes a hundred percent sense because I have seen this Oklahoma offense up close and personal when they visited Athens, Georgia, and that is not a good offensive football team. I again I I don't like laying this kind of number in a rivalry game. I know weird things happen in rivalry games, and I know weird things have happened in the Red River shootout before. I think Texas is just a substantially better team in this game, and I'm gonna lay the seven and a half. I I just don't have any faith in that Oklahoma offense to get more than fourteen, seventeen points. And as good as that defense is gonna be, Yeah look you give me Cam Coleman, give me Ryan Wingo, Arch Manning and those guys, I think Texas can put up enough points to cover the seven and a half. So give me a play on the Longhorns minus seven and a half, B. Brian: Yeah. These two teams going in opposite directions. Like you said, Oklahoma's def I mean offense. Their defense has been great. Their offense has not been great. They've scored thirty seven points in the last three games. Thirty seven total points in the last three games. Greg: And and John Matir is still having flashbacks of Chris Cole. He's got PTSD after that. Brian: huh. I mean, I expect Oklahoma's defense to play well, but I think they'll they'll run out of gas. I mean, they're gonna have some looks. They're coming off a bye week. They're gonna they're gonna try to confuse Arch. I I trust Benables to be able to do that. in the four games in this series between Sart and Venables, they have scored Oklahoma has scored over You know, they scored thirty-four to thirty in one game in twenty twenty-two they got shut out. Twenty twenty-four, they only scored three, and then last year they only scored six. So they don't score in this contest. Oklahoma's offense has been horrific under John Mateer. Now they're playing an elite defense. Three out of four of these matchups, like I just said, they get shut down in this D in this game. I think it's easy money. I'm taking Oklahoma team total under sixteen and a half. Greg: Digging. Not we're not on the same side, but it's definitely correlated. We'll be leaning the same way. I like that. That makes me feel a little bit better about my play, 'cause if Oklahoma stays under sixteen and a half, I like my Texas minus seven and a half. All right, we got a Brian: And I might sprinkle something there. I might take something on Texas that that line gets down to seven. Y everybody keep watching it 'cause it's liable to drop down there to seven. Greg: Yeah, and if it it not not specifically pertaining to this game, but I am glad you brought that up. Anytime we give out a play on a three and a half, a seven and a half, or anything like that, kind of watch the numbers, see which way things have been moving. If you think you can wait and get that seven, it's worth waiting. And I would much rather have to bet an eight than miss a seven. If I'm sitting on a seven and a half ticket and an eight pops, I don't feel like I got that big of an advantage. But if I'm sitting on a seven and a half ticket, the seven pops. kicking myself for not waiting on it. So when it's a three and a half, a seven and a half, a ten and a half, anytime it's a key number plus that half, wait for a minute to and see if you can see if you can get it a little bit better. All right, me, we're gonna head out west to that those kind of teams that I don't even know what conferences they play in anymore. But we got the UCLA Bruins at the Oregon Ducks Saturday at 330 in Eugene, Oregon. I'm seeing Oregon laying 11 and a half to 12. I'm seeing the total at 59. Look, I'm not falling into this because of Dante Moore being out. I think Dylan Raoola is more than a capable backup for Oregon. But I like this UCLA rushing offense. I think they'll be able to control the ball a little bit more. I think they'll keep this from being the shootout that most people reject. It's a high total. give me UCLA plus 11 and a half just to keep it within double digits, I think, and make it a little bit of a squeaker. I think Oregon pulls away. I think Oregon wins. But I don't want to lay double digits with a backup quarterback against a team that I think can run the football and that Oregon defense hadn't really impressed me that much. They they've been a little susceptible. So I gotta play on UCLA plus eleven and a half, Brian. What are you seeing in this one? Brian: UCLA's look good under Bob Chesney. Bob Chesney's a good coach. I mean, Dan Lannon even come out and said that UCLA is this year's Indiana. So we'll see about that. like I said, Dante Moore's out. Dylan Raoula's gonna start in the game. UCLA is a physical team. They run the ball. He brought a lot of the the kids with him from James Madison last year. And if we remember, they already made a trip to Oregon last year and didn't fare out fare too well. They did put up a lot of points, but they also gave up a lot of points. So we'll see how it goes this year. one thing about UCLA, they have looked good this year when when I've watched them, but they also are dealing with you know, they're getting a lot of turnovers. They've had 11 turnovers this year. That that has inflated their points a little bit, in my opinion. Oregon's a team that really does not turn the ball over under Dan Lannon. They've only turned the ball over twice so far this year. Sixty-five percent of the people or on UCLA, which has made that line come down from where it started. So I'm opposite of you on this one, but I found it at a different book. And like I said, I'm not going to give the book out unless somebody asked us for it. but I got Oregon minus ten and a half. So I'm going to take Oregon ducks to cover at home by ten and a half. Greg: Well, when you when we when we do our research independently, even though we're looking at the same board and I think you and I see the things alike a lot, there's always gonna be some disagreement somewhere. And I like it, I just think UCLA might be to run the ball well enough to keep it close, but I I I won't be surprised if if this one is not one I get correct. Going to Happy Valley Saturday night, seven thirty PM, Southern Cal at Penn State, not quite the lustrous matchup it would have been back in the past. I got Penn State laying one and a half, total at fifty-four and a half. Boy, Penn State is that is not a happy program right now in Happy Valley. They have not been doing well. I'm not entirely sure. I can understand why Penn State's favored here. I I don't think they're the better team. I I get that that Happy Valley is is one of those, you know, ultimate college football destinations and and bucket list places to go to a football game, but this ain't your daddy's Penn State team. And again, I'm not sold on this being a very good USC team, but I think the wrong team's favored here. So I actually I wouldn't even take the one and a half. I take U USC on the money line at plus one twenty, one twenty five, whatever you can get it at. that Penn State name still carries a lot of weight, Brian, but that Penn State offense ain't carrying nothing. Brian: No, one of the one of the things I don't know if that's factoring into the line is they're doing their wideout. You know, they usually play pretty good for the wideout in Happy Valley. traditionally they perform well in those games. The last six they're five and one and five and one against the spread. That was under James Franklin. So we'll see what they do under Matt Campbell. Lincoln Riley has struggled a lot of time in these cross country games, especially early. He's three and six when he has to play in a central or eastern time zone. So that's a long trip for them, but it's a 730 game, so that kind of helps him out little bit. Penn State got gashed last week by Northwestern, so they're gonna have to improve that, or USC is liable to hang up a a crazy number. I mean, they gave up 400 yards rushing to Northwestern last week. This is one of those games that's been flipping back and forth on the board. So I've been watching it all week. You know, it started at UC USC was favored by one and a half. It went to Penn State. was favored by one and a half. Now it's kind of settled down at Penn State favored by one and a half instead of two and a half. Like I said, they usually USC usually starts slow in these kind of games. Penn State's offense has not been good this year. So I'm going to take the first half in this game and and expect the trend of Lincoln Riley starting slow. And I'm going to take under twenty-eight and a half for the first half. Greg: Well, there's one more big game on the rundown, Brian, and I guess you're gonna make me talk about it. My my beloved bulldogs got got our first real road trip of the year, and we get to go to Tuscaloosa, Brian. I I complain all the time that my dogs don't seem to get their fair share of evening games. Well, lo and behold, the schedule makers gave us one. It just happens to be in the wrong place. I love an evening game against Alabama, but we got to go on the road, T Town. You know, with all the storm talk and people talking about moving it, who knows what's gonna happen. I'm gonna I'm gonna defer to you on this one since this was a homer pick for me. Brian, I'm gonna let you give the rundown and your read on this game and then I'll kinda come in with the plays and if I think I have anything of value to add. So how do you how do you see how do you see my dogs taking taking on Alabama and and Bryant Denny? Brian: I mean, the last run down I mean the last line I saw was Alabama favored by one and a half and the overunder was at fifty two at at most of books. You can find it up and a point or two on either side of that, depending on where you look. Bama has scored over forty five points in all five games this year. Georgia's offense has also been humming this year. like I said, they got a hurricane coming up there. That scares me a little bit from the from the way these offenses like to operate. Georgia's going to try to run the ball against a Bama team that only gave up eighteen yards last week to B Mississippi State. I think Bama I mean the Georgia's got a lot better offensive line and better running back, so they should be able to do better than that. Offensively, Georgia ranks second in scoring, Alabama ranks third in scoring. In yards, Georgia ranks fourth, Alabama ranks sixth. I expect people to hammer the over, which they are still hammering the over, even with the The storm. You got seventy-four percent of the money coming in still on the over in this game, and the lines go in the opposite direction. Kalen De Bohr has been pretty pretty good in these kind of games. He's seven and one against Kirby, Dan Lannon, and Steve Sarkeesian, which are three of the best coaches in the sport. He's seven and one against them. The only loss he got was in the SEC championship last year against Georgia. Kirby, on the other hand, is comes in with a record of 117 and 21, but he's two and seven against Alabama. So he's won 90% of his games, but he's won 22% of his games against Alabama. So we'll see how that goes. Debore is known as a big game coach, so he he does usually do pretty good in these games. Two or three of these matchups went under the total. And with the weather being a factor, And I and 74.8% coming in on the over. My model showing 74.8% of it coming in on the under with an average score of twenty-three to twenty-two Georgia. You got a two defenses loaded with elite talent on both sides. I was able to find a fifty-three and a half out there, and I couldn't leave it alone. So I got under fifty-three and a half for this game. Greg: Yeah, I I'm gonna start my I'm gonna start my kind of preview or my my explanation with what I think is the absolute best advice when it comes to wagering on this game. Don't. There are this is if you think you know what's gonna happen in this game, you don't. This is two of the best defenses in the country athletically. But the history of this game is both offenses show up and make big plays. You got no idea what the weather's gonna be like in Tuscaloosa Saturday night. If you're putting any serious money on this game right now with all of those variables, it's a one and a half point Bri line, Brian. I wouldn't be surprised if either team wins by two touchdowns. I I just I can see this going a number of different ways. You throw in a possible hurricane. There there is no rationale for putting good money on this game at this point because none of us know what's going to happen Saturday night. Having said that. If I can get Alabama in Bryant Denny at night and I'm laying less than a field goal, that's an automatic fire for me until they prove otherwise. And I think the I think the line movement, normally I listen to you when you talk about you know the public money and numbers go in the opposite direction. I think the number movement on this was just because of the weather. I think that's what's causing the books to drop the numbers, just the fact that they're they're thinking it could be windy, it could be rainy. I I still just historically seeing, even when these are two really good defenses. More often than not, there's some explosive plays and there's some pretty good athletes on the offensive side of the ball for both of these teams too. I've just seen blown coverages. I've seen Ryan Williams put on a cape and turn into Superman. I've seen all kind of things that lead to points. So I I would play Alabama minus one and a half, and I saw the over-under at fifty-one and a half. And I I think one of these teams gets into the thirties most likely. And I'm not sure that if it's not a little wet out there, that doesn't help. You got D V's falling. You who knows what could have wet footballs for fumbles. we saw what happened in Alabama, Tennessee, where I tried to play an under and you got points off turnovers all the time. so I I got Alabama minus one and a half and over fifty-one and a half. And I hope like hell I'm wrong. I I I love my dogs, but this like I said, we this is business. This is not this is not me trying to be a homer. I I can't pass up a chance to take the tide at home at one and a half. Brian: I I mean, I like that play. I mean, on a wet field it's gonna favor a running quarterback, so that's gonna favor Alabama. I mean, defensive guys trying to s on a slick field. The last thing I saw, and like I said, with a hurricane coming, you never know it's gonna change. Looks like the first half they may have some weather, some win some rain. The second half doesn't look like it's rainy, but there will be wind. So you know how that is in the kicking game and trying to put the ball in the air. But like I said, these you're loaded with elite talent on both sides of the ball. This but this could go either direction. Greg: Well, and and again, this is you know, this is definitely one of those if if you just are determined to get down some action on this game, I'm telling you the best thing I think you can do. The the number ain't gonna jack around a whole lot. I I don't think the the f the one and a half's not gonna go big enough either way to make that big of a difference. If you think you gotta get out on action on this game, I'd wait till about five thirty or so on Saturday, get the latest possible weather reports you can, because that's gonna be a big time factor. With if it's Again, if it's windy, if it's blowing twenty, thirty miles an hour, that under is gonna look real strong because both teams are just gonna try to run the ball because they're not gonna take a chance for putting it in the air and having turnovers. So yeah, that again, i is it's always a good idea to try to wait if you think you can get a better number, but especially in a game like this where you know there's potential weather situations, try to wait and get as many of those variables knocked off and get as much solid information as you can before you put your good hard money down on this. All right, Brown. Well that does it for the main game rundown and the the big slate. Let's get into our our off the board plays that that didn't quite make the cut to get into a full discussion, but but that we think there might be a a numerical advantage that we would possibly recommend somebody firing on if they feel so inclined. Brian, give me give me the plays you've got on your on your sheet that we hadn't talked about yet. There's a what what the hell's a milk can robbery, Brian? Brian: Alright, I'm gonna go to the milk can rivalry between Boise State and Fres I didn't know either. Boise State at Fresno State. Seventy four percent Greg: I would have sure thought like Wisconsin or somebody like that with all the that's the dairy country up there, isn't it? Brian: You'd think so. seventy-four percent of money coming in on Boise, and this line has not moved. This stayed stagnant the whole time. Fresno's won three straight games in the milk can rivalry. so don't be fooled by Boise's rankings. Sometimes when you see a higher ranked team, people hammer that higher ranked team no matter what. These teams are a lot closer than you think. Fresno State actually ranks 32nd in the country in expected points per play. Boise ranks 33rd. So I'm gonna take the home team. Give me Fresno Greg: Dig it? Brian: State plus seven and a half. North Carolina versus Pittsburgh. Pitts playing with a backup quarterback. I expect Belichick's defense, you know, to be ready to confuse him. They want to turn this into a rock fight. Give me the under 47 Greg: I like it. Brian: and a half in this game. Iowa State at BYU. I couldn't understand this. The the line was. Is ten and a half, BYU by ten and a half, but the first half line is seven. So I was like, usually it's half of that. So I said I couldn't pass that up. So give me Iowa State plus seven for the first half. Then I'm going to Illinois at Michigan State. Michigan State to me is looking like one of the worst teams in the country. They have not looked good at all. Illinois' great, but Illinois looks competent. So give me Illinois minus two and a half at Michigan State. Then I'm gonna go to Stanford at Notre Dame. Notre Dame's at home. They just gave up twenty six points last week to a UNC offense that has not been well. Stanford only scored three points last week against Wake Forest. I took Stanford's team total under eight and a half against Notre Dame. Houston against Kansas State. Wrong team's favorite in this game. That's all I'm gonna say about that. Give me Houston plus three and a half. North Dakota State versus UNLV. UNLV just gave up 400 yards passing to Cal. North Dakota State is gonna light them up. UNLV may still win this ballgame, but I think you the team total for North Dakota State was too low. I got them over twenty-three and a half. And the last one I got is Wake Forest against North Carolina State. North Carolina State is missing four offensive linemen and a running back in this game. CJ Bailey has been running for his life. That Wake Forest team to me has looked good. They're playing good under Dickert. So I took the North Carolina State team total under twenty-eight and a half. Greg: All right, I like I like some of those. We're I got some action on some of those as well. I'm gonna start in starting out on the Pacific Northwest for the Washington Huskies. Brown I I had some money on actually I think we both had some money on Iowa plus fourteen last week and well Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State had different ideas than what I saw as far as I how I forecasted that game. But I'm not quite off the Iowa Hawkeye bandwagon yet. I do not think this is a good Washington Husky football team. I'm not scared to take this Iowa team on the road anyway. Their style of football, that travels, brother. That brand will travel. Give me Iowa plus three. I think this is another one of those. I think the wrong team might be favored here. I would not be surprised at all to see Iowa walk out of Olympia, Washington with a win. Then I got some action in the Iowa State BYU game. I'm going over 46 and a half. I I think BYU is gonna put some points on the board. I think Iowa State will be able to keep up just enough to get over this low total of 46 and a half. Mm-hmm roll into old Stillwater, Oklahoma. I have always said three and a half, seven and a half, and ten and a half. You're supposed to take the opposite side of what feels natural, but I can't pass this one up, Brian. Give me the Central Florida Knights plus ten and a half against Oklahoma State. I just Don't think Oklahoma State's quite good enough to cover 10 and a half in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if this stays within a touchdown, to be honest with you. And then even though you informed me that Pitt is playing with a backup quarterback, I'm I'm growing to like this Pitt Panthers football team this year. That is and I've always kind of been a Pat Narduzzi fan. That that Pitt team plays hard. You turn you're damn right. Narduzzi and Belichick will turn this into a rock fight. The only thing that makes me uncomfortable laying three and a half is it could be sixteen to thirteen or thirteen to ten at the end of this son of bitch. And it's hard to cover three and a half when you don't score anything. but I still I I'm just maybe I'm still baffled by my my preseason expectation of how bad this North Carolina team is, and maybe Belichick's made them a little bit better, but I I got Pitt minus three and a half. I I don't think this North Carolina team can can keep up with Pitt. I think Pitt's too physical. And then Brian, I know earlier in the year, after the the first couple weeks, I made the statement that I was not gonna bet on Georgia Tech again. Brian, do you know what gamblers are? Gamblers are liars. We lie to ourselves all the time. So you know what I'm gonna do, Brian? I'm gonna back Georgia Tech at home plus six and a half against Duke. I just don't think like I Georgia Tech is not who I thought they were. Clearly they missed Haynes King. Brent Key's got some explaining to do. I thought he would have this program on a better trajectory than what they appear to be. I just don't think Duke is good enough to go into Bobby Dodd and beat by six and a half points though. Gimme Georgia Tech at home plus six and a half. Brown, I I I always like to have some money on Trinidad Chambus one way or another. I think he is a hell of a fun college football player to watch. This Ole Miss offense is they're electrifying, but that defense is atrocious. Ole Miss and Vandy, give me the over fifty five and a half, and I'm not sure Ole Miss doesn't get forty something of them themselves. And ain't no way they're keeping Vandy off the board unless probably less than twenty. I saw that Vanderbilt team first and foremost up front last week. That ain't a bad football team. Their backup quarterback's gonna be on somebody's roster next year if he's not their starting wide receiver. And then I made a promise last week. I said I was gonna always try to get sound, di get down some action on my Wyoming Cowboys. Well, the Cowboys travel to a place that won't quite feel like home, but they gotta go to San Jose State. And if you've been to Wyoming or you've been to San Jose, those two ain't a lot alike. But the Cowboys are gonna travel, they go bring their lunch pail to San Jose, and the Cowboys are gonna get there and they're gonna cover that seven and a half before they head back home. Talaramie, Wyoming, which I don't want to visit and go to a game there so bad. But that's that's it for my off the board plays. You did you take good enough notes to give us a quick official rundown? Yeah, they will do our Brian: I got it. And then there's a big book out there's a big book out there that's got Georgia Tech plus seven and a half. So I figure you'd rather have that. Greg: heck yeah. Although that always makes me scared of it. That no three three and a half and s seven and a half scare the hell out of me. Brian: Ha ha. Yeah. And the only reason I didn't take anything on Montana State this week is because they're off. So Greg's picks this week. Louisville minus three and a half. Nebraska, Indiana over 48 and a half, Texas minus seven and a half. UCLA plus eleven and a half. USC plus one and a half. Alabama minus one and a half. Alabama, Georgia over fifty-one and a half, Iowa plus three, Iowa State, BYU over forty-six and a half. Central Florida plus ten and a half, Pitt minus three and a half, Georgia Tech plus seven and a half, old Miss Vandy over fifty-five and a half, and Wyoming plus four and a half. I'm Greg: If that doesn't ring the bell of a degenerate, I don't know what does. Brian: on I'm on Louisville minus three and a half. Indiana team total over 27.5. Oklahoma team total under 16.5. Oregon minus 10.5. Alabama, Georgia under 53.5, USC Penn State under 28.5 for the first half. Resno State plus 7.5. UNC Pitt under 47.5. Iowa State plus 7 for the first half. Illinois minus 2.5. Stanford team total under eight and a half, North Carolina State team total under 28.5, Houston plus three and a half, and North Dakota State team total over 23.5. Greg: I like it, my friend. But you got a you got a moneyline dog you wanna throw out there for the folks? Brian: Yeah, I got the our money line parlay leg and our dog. My dog, like I told everybody a while ago, the wrong team's favored. So give me Houston. Greg: All right, I'm gonna throw my moneyline dog out. I'm going with the cycl or give me the Hawkeyes traveling to Washington. Iowa plus plus three on the board. I I like to win the game outright. And then who you got for your money line piece? Brian: Wake Forest. I got Wake Forest beating North Carolina State in Raleigh. Greg: Okay. All right. I don't I you know it it's funny you say that 'cause I was sitt just sitting here thinking, go, man, I hate to go with a road team. I'm gonna go a little safer than you. I'm gonna take Indiana. I a at that number, that's to me there's some value on that money line. Seven and a half still I I don't think that's the right number. I I'd I'm very confident which watch this will be the kiss of death. Nebraska will win this game out 'cause I am very confident Indiana will at least leave Lincoln with a W. Brian: We're seeing the same things 'cause if you can see my paper, Indiana was my other pick. Greg: I I I almost always try to go with a short row or a short home favorite, just thinking it's easier to win at home, but when Indiana barely laying just over a touchdown, that you don't get that kind of moneyline value with that good of a team very often. And I am not sold on Nebraska's five and near as much as I am the rest of the five and teams that are out there. Well, Brian, I can't I can't profess to say I know how we'll do performance wise on for this particular episode, but I can say we're a whole hell of a lot more efficient without David Smith dragging us down. God bless, we got this half the time, brother. You got any you got any words of wisdom you want to add out there for the people or any free shots Brian: Yeah, hate it. Greg: you wanna take at Dave since he's not here to defend himself? Brian: No, I should have put this out earlier. I mean, y'all please like and subscribe to this to this. we're trying to build it up. get your request out there. We'll take them. Right now it's too late because we just did the did the recording, but get your request out there. But it like and subscribe, and like we always have said, for entertainment purposes only. So and if you have any kind of gambling problems, anytime I type in AI, even when I'm trying to get numbers and this and that on any website I go to. It gives me the one-eight hundred gambler line. So if you have any problems, it's one-eight hundred gambler. And if other than that, put your plays out there. Have a good weekend and let's win it. Greg: That's it, Mama. Well, I think we we do have to give a shout out and I hope I don't don't get him in trouble, but we we've got a fan and I got a shout out to Mr. Quincy Miller. You you showed me what he posted. I I added him as a friend. Q man, we appreciate the love, brother. Hope you keep listening. Hope you're hearing this right now. We absolutely appreciate it. Hope you weren't just here to listen to David, because if so, then I know you're disappointed now. But God, if you were here to just listen to David, then I don't think you're as cool as I thought you might be. So I appreciate it to any of our listeners, but especially Q for engaging and sharing the podcast and and showing some love like you did. That is a that that's really what it's all about, man. You and I have you and I've been gamblers for a long time. And and I think sometimes the the gambling community gets a bad rap. But people that are people that dig this stuff really do bond together and it it's a special community of of people that like talking about it and like looking at it that way. So we appreciate all you, like Brian said, get out there and share it, like it, comment. Tell us what you want us to talk about. Tell us if you know what you want to what you want us to project for you. And if you got some jokes so we can make fun of David, share those as well. We're we're all fair game here. But until then, we'll we'll guys we'll see you on the recap, Brian. I will have a I'll have an empty house Sunday, so I'll have no issues getting the recap done whenever y'all are ready once I get back from from the airport Sunday from the drop off. But until then, good luck, everybody. Let's let's cash some tickets and for the rest of y'all, y'all enjoy the whiskey. God bless. Brian: All right. Y'all be safe out there.