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Nov 06 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Lende Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the November 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett.
• 0:12
  He's at agmarket.net. We'll discuss the weather forecast with Mike Tanoram from tstormweathertstorm.net online. Along the way today, we'll hear an update of the agricultural news and some of the issues that are happening with the Trump administration on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org, willag.0rg, where today you can buy your tickets for the Farm Assets Conference and the Illinois Farm Economic Summits. Again, online at willag.org.
• 0:50
  Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.28 and three quarters, 6 and a half lower. The March down 6 and a half as well. Settlement price there at $4.43, and the May corn at $4.51 and a half down six and three quarters. January beans, a loss today of 26 and 3 quarters of a cent at $11.00 seven and a half.
• 1:14
  The March at $11.17 and a half down 24 and a half. And the lead option November contract for the beans for the time settled at $10.91 and 3 quarters. It was down 28¢ on the afternoon. Weed futures in the soft red at $5.35 and a half, down 19 and a quarter, and the hard red December at $5.22 at a quarter, down 17 and a half cents for a Thursday. Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us on this Thursday to take a look at what's been not a very good day for the soybean market.
• 1:48
  Thanks, Matt, for being with us. Why were beans down so hard today?
• 1:52
  Matt Bennett: There are a couple different things going on. I think one of the things that kinda gave us a little boost yesterday was talk about a pork strike in Argentina. They kinda worked that out late last night, early this morning, and, certainly put a little pressure on this market. The other thing, of course, is supreme court weighing this whole tariff situation with president Trump and whether or not he should have been able to do what he did from a tariff standpoint. I think it's got the market shook just a little bit.
• 2:21
  And so ultimately, I think that it took a little bit of the shine off this recent, you know, straight higher type rally that we've seen.
• 2:30
  Todd Gleason: So is it that the market fears if the tariffs are determined not to be legal or within the power of the presidency that, China will look back at it and say, well, we didn't have to do anything in order to appease president Trump and renege on the 12,000,000 metric tons or what they haven't bought of it so far?
• 2:51
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I think that there's all kinds of things on the table, of course. You know? Certainly, China's bought some beans since the agreement, if you will. But as far as we all know, there's no signed agreement.
• 3:03
  And so, you know, there's a whole host of things that could happen in here. In all honesty, it's hard to know exactly what to think. I mean, whether, you know, if the tariffs go off, I mean, certainly, you would assume that tariffs would go off on the other side of the pond too. And so that would help us with competitiveness. Now, since that trade deal was agreed upon, I should say would be the best thing instead of signed.
• 3:31
  Since it was agreed upon, we've seen our values skyrocket, and our bases has really weakened in Brazil, and it's made them more competitive on the market. So even before the tariffs, by our estimations, know, our beans are at least 20¢ too high, you know, even with this kind of pullback here today. So most likely, if you take those tariffs off, it'll change the playing field a little bit. Have to kinda wait and see how China weighs that. But by all means, there's a little more concern, I think, than, what there had been coming into today.
• 4:06
  Todd Gleason: Given the technical picture for both corn and soybeans, some of the upside and downside objectives, particularly as it's related to gaps and I think more on the downside for soybeans than anything else. Are you worried that the bean market might make a in an even sharper move lower, or is, the technical picture still in play that gives you enough, confidence that there could remain, a a move higher in this trade.
• 4:38
  Matt Bennett: Well, I mean, we went down today. You know, if we wanna talk, for instance, January beans, we went down and we touched, the hundred day moving average. That's the highest moving average we currently have on the January chart. You know, we settled above that, fortunately. And so it looked like that acted a little as a little bit of support here.
• 4:59
  Now if you wanted to go down and fill that gap, I mean, you really need to take this market another $30.40 cents lower to get down to the top of that gap. On Jan beans, it'd be about $10.70. And so, you know, you're talking another 38¢ lower. Is something like that possible? It certainly is.
• 5:18
  History would suggest to us that when you look at when the beans are trading below 11 and then they take off above eleven, a lot of times they will go to 12, but it doesn't mean that they don't go down and fill gaps. A lot of times we've seen moves back down into that $10.40 to $10.60 level. Certainly, getting down into those levels, we would most likely fill the gap, especially at ten forty. And so, you know, in all honesty, I I'm not gonna say that the market's over by any means. I still think there's a chance you could see some excitement here, by all means, that's completely dependent upon what this trade situation looks like, first of all.
• 5:56
  And second of all, you know, right now, Brazil's got a pretty decent thing going as far as weather is concerned. There's not enough concern down there, you know, to really warrant getting too excited about them having anything, short of a big crop.
• 6:09
  Todd Gleason: So important for you that the most active January contract still above $11. However, the November remains the lead, and it broke below $11. I suppose that could be an issue we'll have to talk about in the future. Corn futures also went lower for the day. Was that just sympathy, or was there something else in the marketplace?
• 6:30
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. It's been interesting to see as this corn market's moved higher, bean markets moved higher. Corn's been a I call it a reluctant follower. I believe I've probably said that to you even. But, you know, today, beans going down twenty six, twenty eight cents, and corn going down 6.
• 6:48
  Relatively speaking, it actually performed a little bit better. But by all means, it was gonna be hard for this corn market to rally. We had pretty good ethanol numbers here this week. No doubt that we're still shipping a fair amount of corn out. Demand's been pretty darn good.
• 7:04
  And then, of course, there's a lot of question marks on yield. I mean, I don't know that I've seen this big of a disparity in yield guesses from Stonex's survey at 186 to several people clamoring for, you know, a lower crop than a year ago. I I think that there's a lot to be learned here. There's no question if we come in here next Friday and would post a yield, you know, under one eighty, it would be very friendly to this market. But with that being said, you know, the two hundred day moving average, you look at March corn, I mean, in most of your contracts, I mean, that two hundred day just continues to be a stop.
• 7:39
  Every time we go up and test it, we just kinda turn around and head the other way. So to establish ourselves above something like that, the two hundred day, you're probably gonna need something like a really friendly WASDE report. I don't wanna rule it out by any means. I don't know that I can get my head wrapped around a sub one eighty yield just yet. But by all means, there's a lot of folks out there that think that it it is that low.
• 8:02
  Todd Gleason: Are you hopeful that we simply mark time through Friday next week when the World Ag Ag Agriculture Outlook Board will release the WASDE and NASS will release the crop production numbers?
• 8:11
  Matt Bennett: It'd certainly be nice to see the market kind of stabilize after a day like today. I do believe there'll be a lot of jockeying and positioning ahead of time as there usually is. So I would assume that to expect low volatility might be a tough assumption to make. But by all means, it's gonna be a very anticipated report after we didn't get one in October. We know that they have had surveyors calling folks, but are they gonna be dealing with a full deck?
• 8:39
  Certainly not. And so I assume whenever that report is released, no matter what the number is, Todd, there'll be as many questions from people as what there ever is. And if it's a bullish report, the bears will be saying that it's faulty info and and vice versa.
• 8:54
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next Thursday.
• 8:56
  Matt Bennett: Sounds good, Todd. Thank you.
• 8:58
  Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett is with agmarket.net. In today's agricultural news, the US Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday on whether president Trump's controversial tariffs can stand under 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act or IEPA. The high court's conservative justices were skeptical of Trump's use of the 77 statute to declare a trade emergency and impose tariffs that had spurred heavy cost on farm exports. Chief justice John Roberts disputed US solicitor general John Sauer that the 1977 IEPA law did not need to use the word tariffs since congress had already given the president broad foreign powers.
• 9:44
  John Roberts: The vehicle is imposition of taxes, on on Americans, and that has always been the core power of congress. So to have the president's foreign affairs power trump that basic power, for congress seems to me to kind of at least neutralize, between the two powers, the executive power and the legislative power.
• 10:04
  Todd Gleason: Solicitor general Sour stressed repeatedly to the court that the 1977 law gave president Trump tariff powers indirectly.
• 10:11
  U.S. Solicitor General: But it uses the word regulate importation, and historically, a core central application of that, a big piece of that, has always been to tariff.
• 10:19
  Todd Gleason: Conservative justice Brett Kavanaugh was sympathetic to Sowers' argument that president Nixon had imposed tariffs using an earlier law. Still, conservative Neil Gorsuch stressed congress did not specifically delegate tariff power to the president in 1977. The plaintiff's lawyer, Michael McConnell, responded.
• 10:38
  Michael McConnell: This is miles away from any delegation we have ever seen.
• 10:41
  Todd Gleason: The Trump tariff case that's on an expedited schedule is the most consequential of the high court's term with broad implications for agriculture, especially if tariffs need to be refunded.
• 10:52
  Trump appointed three of the court's six conservative justices, and five must rule in his favor for him to prevail. Let's stay with the Trump administration, but we'll move to the USMCA, pointing to The US Mexico Canada agreement's role in facilitating and strengthening US corn exports to Mexico and Canada. The National Corn Growers Association has urged the White House to support a full sixteen year renewal of the agreement. NCGA president Jed Bauer made the request and comments submitted to the office of the US Trade Representative or USTR. In the comments, the corn growers highlight where clarifications are needed in the agreement, but overwhelmingly conveyed support for preserving the text of the agreement.
• 11:39
  And finally today, one more Trump administration story. The current government shutdown is unique due to the lack of negotiations between the president and congress. This is a result of increasing polarization with both political parties. Each has a base, a professor of political sciences at George Mason University in Virginia told the PBS NewsHour last Sunday evening, unwilling to compromise. Jeremy Mayer thinks the current shutdown goes back to president Trump's desire to shrink away programs and institutions created by Democrats.
• 12:12
  USAID, for instance, under John f Kennedy, the Department of Education under Jimmy Carter, and SNAP or food stamps along with PBS under Lyndon Baines Johnson. When asked about the administrators picking and choosing which programs would be funded during the shutdown, Jeremy Mayer said it was unusual and of questionable legality, but that he believes ultimately president Trump will prevail this time around.
• 12:39
  Jeremy Mayer: Well, I think president Trump is gonna win this stalemate. I think he's can easily get the end of the shutdown simply by saying, my justice department has reinterpreted the 100 year old law, and now I can declare an end to the shutdown. This is what happened when the congress failed to pass bills on time from 1884 to 1980. We just had a continuing resolution automatically in effect. But in 1980, Carter's attorney general reinterpreted a law, and that's where modern shutdowns come from.
• 13:08
  And they have been terrible. Trump will look like a hero. He's the one that reopened the government all by himself. He didn't have to negotiate with the weak Democrats. And so he's likely to achieve at least a short term political victory very soon.
• 13:20
  Todd Gleason: The Anti Deficiency Act initially passed in 1870 and later amended is the 100 year old law. It generally prohibits federal officials from spending money in the absence of an appropriation from Congress. And that's a look at today's Agricultural News. Up next, we'll recap a story we discussed earlier in the week. Three recent EPA actions, including proposed renewable volume obligations and a comprehensive rulemaking on small refinery exemptions, collectively suggest a significant increase in domestic biomass based diesel production.
• 14:08
  The three key EPA actions in recent months are the proposed renewable volume obligations or RVOs for 2026 and 2027. Those were released in June. A comprehensive rule making on small refinery exemptions granted between 2018 and 2024, released in July. And the reallocation policy framework for small refinery exemptions published in September. When examined individually, writes the PharmDoc team from the University of Illinois, each decision represents a meaningful policy development.
• 14:42
  However, when analyzed collectively through the lens of biomass based diesel RVOs, their combined impact appears to create conditions for a dramatic increase in domestic biomass based diesel production, says agricultural economist Todd Hubbs. The end result, he says, will be all about how the small refinery exemptions are reallocated.
• 15:04
  Todd Hubbs: Well, it depends on if they do a 100% or 50% reallocation, but we think they're gonna do one or the other. They haven't finalized it yet. But it is a really strong growth in biomass based diesel inside the RFS, the renewable volume obligations. If we're at 5.5, you know, billion RIN gallons during 2025, You know, in 2026, we could be anywhere from 7.23 to 7.34 depending on how the reallocation goes RIN gallons inside the biomass based diesel set. So it's it's a pretty good amount of growth and somewhat, you know, strong for our soybean oil and other vegetable oil and feedstocks that go into biomass based diesel.
• 15:58
  Todd Gleason: So the combined effect of higher renewable volume obligations, RVOs, tighter restrictions on small refinery exemptions, SREs, and a mandatory reallocation mechanism is set to increase the required volume of biomass based diesel for calendar years 2026 and 2027. Market analysis suggests these revised mandates will represent about a 50% increase over the current three year period. You may read more about these policy shifts and the implications for soybean demand in a series of articles Todd Hubbs from Oklahoma State University and Scott Irwin from the University of Illinois are posting to the PharmDoc Daily website. Let's turn our attention to the global growing regions. Mike Tenure is here.
• 17:00
  He's the president and CEO at T Storm Weather in Naperville, Illinois. Thanks, Mike, for being with us online, by the way, at tstorm.net. Let's begin with Brazil, and we may stay in South America for the duration. I'd like to start in Mato Grosso or the Center West, maybe some of the northern regions. That's where the bulk of the soybeans, and by that, I mean, thirty, thirty five, or 40% of it, are raised, what are conditions like today?
• 17:31
  Mike Tannura: Well, Goias and Mato Grosso, they need rain. That region alone accounts for about 40% of the soybeans, and the other 15% is the rest of the North. So this is the key production region just like you're noting. The thing about Goias and Mato Grosso is that they had their driest October since 1980. So this is a pretty long period of time to have that much of a lack of rain.
• 17:53
  There were a couple of similar years in 2014 and 2015 that were pretty dry. And the yields in those years at the national level varied quite a bit. We had a pretty poor crop in 2015 and an average crop in 2014. But the story that we're seeing is that we just need it to rain. If we can get a bunch of rain going forward, then all the concerns over this will go away.
• 18:14
  The problem is that even though it did rain this week, some of the new numbers are coming in and showing us that this was not nearly enough rain to wipe out the story. It's going to be a little bit dry going forward as well. And once we put all this together, we think that two weeks from now, this still could be a topic of concern. So now we're getting a little bit closer to December, Todd. And December is kind of the month where things really start to take shape.
• 18:40
  December and January is primarily what drives the yields in this region, especially in Goias and Mato Grosso. So we need the rain. There is some coming up, but it doesn't look like enough to totally wipe away this story, and this could be a lingering concern here for a while.
• 18:56
  Todd Gleason: What do December and January generally look like year in and year out in those areas, and do you have any thoughts on what conditions might be like this year?
• 19:04
  Mike Tannura: Well they generally get a lot of rain, around eight to 10 inches each of those months, so you're talking 20 inches of rain over that two month period is normal for them. It's hard to say what's going to happen. If you look at the way a growing season starts and the way a growing season ends in Brazil, there's not a lot of correlation there from one to the other. The only thing that we do know is that we have this weak La Nina setup that exists, and that just means that water temperatures across the Pacific Ocean are colder than normal. There are correlations between that and weather, but further to the South in Argentina and into Southern Brazil, occasionally, they can have a pretty dry growing season with that type of setup.
• 19:45
  So if we're going to have a dryness story develop because of the La Nina, we would expect to see it further to the South while in this area that's been dry in Goias and Mato Grosso in the North, it's more random. We could go either way on that. So there's a lot of moving parts here, Todd, but I think the point to take home is that this is not an ideal start to the growing season in at least Brazil and we need to keep watching this weather pattern.
• 20:11
  Todd Gleason: You mentioned La Nina further to the south. Certainly, it can have an impact. What do the growing regions in Southern Brazil and Argentina look like at this point?
• 20:21
  Mike Tannura: Well, they've been doing pretty well for the most part, and it looks like they'll stay okay for a little bit longer. It's interesting if you look at Argentina because from August through September, they were the second wettest in the key growing region going all the way back to 1979 and the wettest since 2012. So they've been pretty wet to start their season. October had kind of a normal mix of rainfall. We've had a normal mix of rainfall so far for this month.
• 20:47
  The potential issue that we're watching though is that it is going to turn a lot drier in Argentina and in Southern Brazil. This all starts in about five to ten days. And the reason for it is that a surface level high is going to develop and then kind of stall across this region. That is kind of typical of what you would expect in a La Nina winter. And so that's something we need to keep an eye on because if La Nina is going to start affecting their weather, you wouldn't expect to see it in the fall or in our fall and their spring.
• 21:19
  You'd really expect to see it in our winter and their summer, which basically starts in a few weeks. So to be seeing this type of pattern only a couple of weeks ahead of that is a tiny bit concerning. And it all just kind of leaves at the same story, is that there are some things developing in South America that certainly need to be watched, but it's all pretty early and it all could be a lot different to the positive or the negative side eight weeks from now depending on how all these pieces fall into place.
• 21:49
  Todd Gleason: Thank you for keeping an eye on it for us. We'll talk with you again next week, Mike.
• 21:55
  Mike Tannura: Sounds great, Todd. Thanks a lot.
• 21:56
  Todd Gleason: Mhmm. Mike Tenuras with T Storm Weather, that's tstorm.net online. Speaking of online, you'll find our website at willag.0rg, where today you'll find information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist from the U of I, along with a way to register for our December upcoming conferences, including the Farm Assets Conference to be held on December 12 at the Agricenter in Bloomington. Read all the details there and the link to register. You can also find a link to register for the Illinois Pharmaconomics Summit in that same paragraph.
• 22:36
  The IFAS series is the annual winter meeting series in Mount Vernon, DeKalb, and East Peoria put on by the PharmDoc team. Of course, they'll be with us at the PharmAssets conference too. I think you should go to both, but go ahead and get yourself registered. You can find all kinds of things right there at willag.0rg. Don't wait to register.
• 22:58
  Do it right now. The Farm Assets Conference particularly has a smaller venue, so there is a limited number of seats. You have a great afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Doctor.