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Trump's Abortion Gambit Implodes · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: And I'm Jennifer Palmieri.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: A big thanks to Jennifer for joining us on the
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: podcast today. She's the co-host of MSNBC's How to Win
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: 2024 podcast. a former communications director for Hillary Clinton and
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama, my old friend and a White House colleague. Jen,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: great to have you doing this with us.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, as you know, I love to talk politics
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: with Pfeiffer, so I'm super excited.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we can just do it in front of
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the entire world to see now.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: What could possibly go wrong? All right. On today's show,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: President Biden sits down for a big interview on Univision
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: as part of an effort to target Latino voters. And
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: with just over seven months until the election, we'll take
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: a look at the state of the polls and the
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: way both campaigns are spending and raising money. But first.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: In a decision released Tuesday, Arizona's highest court upheld an
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: 1864 law that abands almost all abortions and could send
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: doctors who administer abortions to jail for up to five years.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Activists are working to get a constitutional amendment guaranteeing the
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: right to abortion on the state's ballot in November. But
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: until then, the ban will be in effect. Now, since
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Trump just said abortion should be left to the states,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: he's obviously totally cool with this new ruling, right? Well,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: not so much because on Wednesday, he said he thought
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Arizona went too far and expected voters to overturn the law.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Other Arizona Republicans, including Carrie Light, came out against the law. Jennifer,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: they are clearly scared shitless. Should they be?
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. Absolutely.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Of course.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, and it is just, and it is, I
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: was texting with one of our former colleagues who's currently
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: at the White House to be like, You know, this
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: is so... I don't understand why people are getting tripped
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: up that, oh, Trump's trying to moderate his position on abortion.
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: It's like.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Deferring to the States is the most extreme position to
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: have on abortion. Second to overturning Roe. Like he already
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: did it, right? He already did the big thing and
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: he owns all of this. And that should be, you know,
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: it's like, it's such nonsense that now he's trying to
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: backtrack and say like, Oh, Arizona should overturn this in
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Florida will overturn this. By the way, he votes in Florida.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Is he going to vote to overturn the six week
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: abortion ban? I mean, he, basically said today that he's
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: not for a six week abortion ban.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Kind of said that. Sort of. Right. Sort of. The
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: right wing will go. We'll go after him. But, you know,
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: that Biden ad that they put out the other day
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: with Josh and Amanda's horrific family story, family from Texas.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: She had a miscarriage, needed an abortion to protect herself,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: couldn't get one. And now she may not be able
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: to have children again. you know, we have a lot
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: of friends that have been through this, right? I mean,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: I don't, your parent, is there anything more wrenching than
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: that ad?
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's, it's gutting. It is something that you, it's,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: it is hard to watch, but also impossible to turn off. Um,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: it's a, and that's just, we've seen, you know, we
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: saw a similarly wrenching ad in Kentucky during the governor's race, uh,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: about a woman who was a rape victim. It just,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: it is, you're, we're going to see this over and
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: over again everywhere.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: And it's just, it's like the thing, you know, it's like,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: I think it's like the, it's just the issue, particularly,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, not just for women. I mean,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: for just for, for parents overall, like when, when you
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: see that ad of these parents who went through this
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: terrible miscarriage, she may never be able to have kids.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: You know, you're like six weeks, 14 weeks. You're like,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: Oh my God, it's just all bullshit. Like, how about
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: you just trust women to make these decisions for them
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: and their families? Right. How about that?
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: It just, So it, you know, it cuts, I think,
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: you know, those kinds of ads just, they cut through
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: the clutter of him Mau Mau-ing, you know, Trump trying
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: to dance on the head of a pin about, about
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: this when he owns this. And I just think that's
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: the best. He did this. That's it. He did this.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: He owns this. All of this trauma is happening because
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: of him. And that's what the Biden campaign should, you know, should,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: that is their messaging. That's what they should stick with.
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 2: Like, and I just think it's going to be a huge,
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: huge deal.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I was a little more worried prior to this Arizona
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: ruling that Trump was going to be able to navigate
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: this a little better than I think maybe you were.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, the thing is the thing, right? Roe v.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Wade is overturned. One day, millions of Americans had a
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: constitutional right. The next day, because of Donald Trump, they didn't.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: There's no spin. There's no position. There's no video. There's
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: no ad that changes that fact. And the fact that
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: every woman in America lives in fear of that ban
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: happening in their state, right? We are just one bad
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: election cycle in a Pennsylvania or any state in which
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: you live where this could happen to you, right? That
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: is on Donald Trump. Now, the polling has shown prior
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: to this that Donald Trump is held less responsible for
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: the overturning of Roe v. Wade than he should be, right?
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Because he's the person singularly responsible. He calls it one
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: of his proudest accomplishments in Talks about it all the time. Yeah,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I talked about this with Sarah Longwell, who's done focus
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: groups on this a couple weeks ago. You know, in
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: their focus groups, when you ask voters if they think
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is personally pro-choice, they often laugh. Some of
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: them will even just volunteer the idea that he has
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: personally paid for abortions. And so he's got this sort
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: of like billionaire, fake billionaire, New York cad, cheats on
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: his wife sort of thing that makes him– he's not
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: a doctrinaire Republican– extremist on social issues like Blake Masters,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Kerry Lake, Herschel Walker, and some of these other ones.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: But now in Arizona, the state that he has been
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: doing the best in in the polling averages of the
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: six swing states, it's been his strongest state to date.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: And now this is going to be the top issue, right?
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: The top issue, yeah.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: And like Florida.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Like Florida too. Every couple of weeks is keep this
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: keeps happening and it's not going to stop. It's not
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: going to stop with the crazy Arizona law, right?
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: And he, and this is, I think this is the, like,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: this is just, there's such a sweet, politics has seemed
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: largely unfair and unjust since 2016, but there is a
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: sweet justice that he puts out this video and he
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: thinks he's so smart on Monday and they're like spinning it.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: And he's got some dumb reporters to sort of like
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump trying to triangulate on abortion. And look how
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: great it is that Mike Pence is attacking him. That'll show.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: And then, 28 hours later in one of the six
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: battleground states, he says, leave it to the states. The
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: states take him up on it and they pass this
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: incredibly extreme law using a, this is a law from
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: before Arizona was a state.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: State.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: And that is on Donald Trump. And now he owns that, right?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: He owns not just every law that's in place. He
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: theoretically owns every crazy proposal from a Republican legislator.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Cause it's up to the States that can happen if
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: it happens.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Right. Yeah. Up to the States. This is what happens
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: when you leave it up to the States. Um, so I, um,
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: you know, and I also just, I mean, I'm always
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: more optimistic than you are.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: This is why we, I mean, congratulations.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: I know it's a low bar, but it, um, you know,
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: it's like, and there, there are a lot of people
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: fretting on Monday or whenever that day that he did that.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: And I was just like, I don't know, like he's
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: responsible for returning Roe v. Wade and he said leave
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: it to the states. And that's a debacle. Like, it's
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: just it's the most extreme position to have. And, you know,
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: you look at a map now of where abortion restrictions are.
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: Whoa.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: It is, you know, really that is really scary.
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: And.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: And, and, and growing. And this won't be the, like,
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: it won't be the end of it. So like, I
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: feel pretty good about it. Yeah.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: The last thing I'd say is just, you know, ultimately
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: politics boils down to a battle over issue salience. What
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I mean by that is just, you know, every, the
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: parties are trying to say like, what do you want
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to be in voters' minds when they make their decision?
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: And in Arizona, the choice really now comes down to abortion,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: which every election and every poll shows is bad for
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Republicans or the border because which every poll at least
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: shows has been a challenge for Democrats. Now there's a
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: very good chance that because of this Arizona law, that
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: for those voters in Arizona, abortion is going to be
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: top of mind. It's going to drive turnout. It's going
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: to drive voter registration. It is a reason for Biden
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: voters or progressives who have concerns about Biden for whatever reason, right? Gaza,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: they wanted a younger candidate, whatever that is, this is
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: a reason to get them to vote Joe Biden, not
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: vote or not stay home and not vote for RFK Jr.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: or Jill Stein or whoever else it's about. I think
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: this is a massive moment for the campaign in a
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: state that some thought I was not, even I am
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: not this pessimistic, but some thought could fall off the
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: map or be the hardest state for Biden to win.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: And now I think it is firmly in place. So
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: that's really good.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: And I just think when you look at the, yeah,
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: when you look at the saliency between just like immigration's
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: their big thing and abortion is, you know, I just,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: it's gonna, it's just like, I just, I just think
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: it's way more, I understand that's a problem for Democrats,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: but I just think it's way more salient than abortion
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: is just way more salient.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, and particularly for the voters that Biden
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: has suffered with, abortion is, the progressive voters, the younger voters,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: and even, and even the voters who are more moderate
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: and voter and Latino voters are they align with Joe
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Biden on abortion, right? That is like, there is, I mean,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: that's ultimately what you want. You want people focused on
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: an issue to which they agree with you and disagree
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: with your opponent. And that got a little bit easier.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: One other thing.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: Senate race.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, Carrie, Lake is on tape repeatedly saying that
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: she supported this law. This was a good law. It
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: would be great when it was in place. And now
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: she's trying to walk it back. This is a challenge
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: for Trump. I think it's really, like she said, we
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: got seven months to go here. A lot's going to change.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: People can memory a whole lot of things. But this
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: is really bad news for Carrie Lake, right? We're going
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: to see the Senate Majority Pack, the Gallego campaign, any
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: other super PAC, we're going to see tens and tens
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: of millions of dollars of footage of Kerry Lake endorsing
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: this 1864 law. And there's plenty of it going around
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: the internet today. It's really powerful. The other thing Trump
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: said on Wednesday that is notable is many people pointed
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: out in his Monday video that he never said he
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: wouldn't sign a federal abortion ban if it were to
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: come to his desk. He did say that today. He
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: said to reporters in Georgia.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: Oh, I even watched the clip and even I like
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: didn't focus on that part of it.
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: What do you make of that? You're going to take
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: it to the bank?
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: He said he would not sign a bill.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: He said he would not sign a national abortion ban.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: That is not going to stand. Absolutely not. It's just like,
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: it's just, yeah, that is absolutely not going to stand.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: He can't, he can't, he can't, he can't survive continuing
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: to say that he wants Florida to overturn what they,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: that their six weeks ban and that he won't sign
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: a national abortion ban. He can't do both of those things.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: And you can tell like in his stupid video on Monday,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: you could tell that he's so uneasy about this because
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: he's like legal scholars on both sides say that Roe v. Wade,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: that Roe v. Wade should have been overturned. And I
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: was like, what? No, no. Like, so he's just, he's
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: obviously living in his own head even more than normal
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: to convince himself that he can manage this issue. And
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: there's no way that can stand.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Do you think he will have to backtrack on that?
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Yes. Right. Don't you?
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: No, I don't actually. I think he, I think the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: right will give him the space. They don't believe him.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, this was ultimately the thing, and you see
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: this in Trump's group sometimes with evangelical voters, is they
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: don't think Trump agrees with them on the issues. They
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: just think he'll do what they want, that he'll fight
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: for them when he gets into office. So I think
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: they're going to give him space here. And all the
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: right-wing groups attacking him for not doing it is probably
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: on– The margin is good for him, right? It makes
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: him seem a little bit more moderate.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Sure, sure, sure, sure.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: It is. But it's on us as Democrats to say,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: of course he would sign it. This is the same
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: guy who said in 2016, as you will remember very well,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: that he would not cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: And then he got an office. And the first thing
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: he did was try to completely eviscerate Medicaid and repealing
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act and put cuts to Social Security,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Medicare in his budget every single year. He is a
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: known liar. And every, I mean- There's not a lot
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: that is constructive, although it can be cathartic to just
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: scream about headlines. But the amount of headlines I've seen,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Trump says he won't sign an abortion ban. Great. Who
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: cares if he said that? The reality of it is
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: he's also not going to face the voters again after this.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So his driving force to try to, I think, clumsily
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: avoid the fate of other Republicans on abortion is because
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: he's scared of the politics. He won't face the politics
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: in office. And of course, he's going to sign it
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: if speaker Mike Johnson and Senate leader, white guy named
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: John or whatever, send him the bill. Of course that's
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: going to happen.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Well, and this is what he, this is what he
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: always does. Like there is a record of this, that
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: he will always back the MAGA wing because they're the
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: ones that have his back. So like, I think that
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: this has to go in the bucket of like MAGA
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: extremist agenda, right? Not, you know, abortion most prominently, but
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: not just abortion. And he always backs those people up.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: So, uh, vice president Harris is headed to Arizona on
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Friday and, She's obviously been leading the White House effort
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: on talking about, you know, opposing these abortion bans and
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: pushing for more access. What else do you think Democrats
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: and the president should do to drive the issue?
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: I think that in the individual states that the people,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, one of the reasons why I
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: feel good about things just in general is the ground
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: game that the uh, uh, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia. And
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, Gretchen Whitmer and, um, Tammy Baldwin
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, um, and, um, uh, you know, all the
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: house members in, um, Pennsylvania, Bob Casey, they need to
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: pick it up and, and, and drive it. And it's
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: going to help all of them in their races as well,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: you know, and they just got to keep it. I mean,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: and I, and with paid, right. Um, I'm not sure
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: what else Yeah, Harris is great on it. It's interesting
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: that you said, you noted about Biden being aligned with
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Latino voices on this. A lot of people don't love
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: that the word abortion doesn't come out of the president's mouth. Like,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: I understand that. You know, I'm with Nancy Pelosi, like,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: just win, baby. Like, whatever you gotta, right? You know,
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: whatever you gotta do. And, you know, people should keep
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: in mind that The way the president talks about this
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: issue is probably aligned with the way a lot of
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: Americans think about this issue.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: John and I talked about this a few weeks ago
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: after the State of the Union when there was that
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: criticism of the president not using the word abortion. It's
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: just like we– in all kinds of worlds where you
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: wish the president was more comfortable talking about it, that
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: he used the word. But like let's take the win
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: here that the– I mean the 81-year-old– Catholic president stood
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: in the State of the Union and said that if
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: you sent him a law to restore Roe v. Wade,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: that he would sign it, right? In the first five
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: minutes of the State of the Union. That is wild
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: that a Democratic president talked about protecting access to abortion
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: in the first five minutes of the State of the Union.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: And the president has been aggressive about this. He has
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: not been shy. There was a little bit of a
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: transition period after Dobbs, but he's talking about it everywhere
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: and should keep doing it because he has the biggest megaphone.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Talk about it all the time. Highlight the worst examples
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: of these proposals. Put them on Trump. He owns every Bill,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: I don't care what he says, he owns the Florida law.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: He does. That is the net result of his action
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: to overturn Dobbs and it is the result of his position.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: What he said today is absurd compared to what he
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: said on Monday. It's absurd. And we should just hold
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: him to what he said on Monday and make him
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: pay for all these things.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Well, and even if he's talking about the future, it's like,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: you own this. Why are we in this situation? Arizona
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: shouldn't be in the situation of having to vote to
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: like have a constitutional amendment to clean this up, to
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: clean your mess up. You made this whole debacle. None
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: of this is necessary. Women are dying because of what,
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: because of what you did. Like, this is just, just no,
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: you know, I think, um, that it's, uh, I, you know,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: I think that, uh, the more people get tripped up
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: on the, particulars, uh, the less salient the argument becomes
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: because like he just, he did this, he owns this,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: he has the most extreme, the most extreme position is
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: what's already happened.
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: And he is responsible for all of it. And he
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: has said so, right? So there's all this video of
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: him saying it. So let's use that.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Happily, he continues to say that, but even in that video,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: we got him on tape, even in that tape, even,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: even from today.
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: Did it? Yeah.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Speaking of the president, President Biden is continuing a major
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: push to win over Latino voters, a group with whom
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: he is struggling and losing ground to Trump, according to
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: at least one new poll. In an interview that aired
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: last night on Univision, one of the main Spanish language
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: news networks in the country, Biden talked about democracy, gun violence, inflation,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: and the border. Let's take a listen.
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: What, in your view, constitutes the primary threat to freedom
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: and democracy at home?
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: Donald Trump. Seriously. Donald Trump uses phrases like you're going
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: to He's going to eviscerate the Constitution. He's going to
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: be a dictator on day one. But he'll stand in
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: Mar-a-Lago and say to his friends, I know you're all wealthy.
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: I know 20 of you guys are worth a hell
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: of a lot of money. We're going to make sure
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: we get you a tax cut, a tax cut. And
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: they're all cheering. Well, guess what, man? It's about time
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: they start paying their fair share.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Have you made a final decision on taking executive order?
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: in terms of what you want to do at the
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: border that includes the power to shut down the border
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: as it was suggested?
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: Well, it suggested that. We're examining whether or not I
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: have that power. I would have that power under the
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: legislation when the border has over 500,000 people, 5,000 people
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: a day trying to cross the border because you can't
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: manage it, slow it up. And that's why I also
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: put in $ 14 billion in Spanish-speaking institutions of higher education.
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: So it's overwhelmingly in the interest not only of the community,
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: but the country, to grow the capacity for these students
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: to be able to learn.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Jen, how did the president do? What did you think
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: of his message?
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, as a former communications director, you want to
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: give him an A-plus for managing to weave so many
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: messages into that answer, right? I mean, he managed to
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: work into a question about about the border, how he's
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: invested in Spanish-speaking education, right? managed to work that in.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: And then he managed to remind people what Trump said
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: about billionaires and getting more tax cuts. So he said
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: that the Mar-a-Lago. And he reminded us that the Republicans
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: had blocked the border security bill from going through. He
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: could have been better on that. He could have said
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: like specifically they did it to help Trump because Trump
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: doesn't want this to be solved. And so, you know,
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: I felt like that was all, I felt like that was,
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: that was, that was good. Yeah.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: He was, he clearly went in with a punch list
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: of things that he knew from his, from polling or
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: his political advisors were important to get done in this interview.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: And I thought, I thought did well. What'd you think
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: of his answer on the border? It seems like he
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: is very seriously considering an executive order to shut down
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the border. Right. There has been some serious concerns raised
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: about that from immigration groups, from progressives on Capitol Hill.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: What do you think? What are the politics of it?
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: It's difficult, but I think that he did seem to
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: lean into that. I mean, you know, we went through,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: it reminds me of DACA, right? It was election year,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: re-election year. June of 2012, when we finally, our legal
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: team in the White House and Justice and DHS finally
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: figured out how you could do DACA. So it's the
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: same process they're going through now. They'll be blowback, but
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: I think they do it. I think that they make
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: the calculation that something does need to be done. And
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: I think that that probably spills over, the benefit of
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: taking some kind of decisive action doesn't just apply to
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: the border, right? That just, you know, his team democracy,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Trump's team chaos. He's got to show I can get
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: stuff done for you, you know, even when he's got
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: these difficulties in Congress. But it'll be, you know, that
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: will be some tough, you know, race because that will
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: be some tough weeks to go through after he does that,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: you know, if he does.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm torn on this one because There have been
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: some very legitimate policy concerns around taking this move, that
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: people who have legitimate asylum claims will now not be
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: able to have those claims heard. The president's obviously managing
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: an impossible situation without the resources he needs to do
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: that because Congress, because of Donald Trump, won't take the action,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: won't give him the funding, won't give him the officers,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: won't give him the technology, all the things he needs
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: to deal with it. So you have this crisis happening.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: From a pure substantive perspective, If you take action, there
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: will be some bad downside effects. And if you don't
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: take action, we already know what some of the bad
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: downside effects are because they're happening right now to the
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: people who are– to happening in the cities where people
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: are being sent, to the migrants who are being bused,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: all the terrible things that are happening. From a pure
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: political calculus, from just being a hack about this, the blueprint,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the research and polling organization actually pulled this very specific
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: question and Majority of voters support it, and more than
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: 6 in 10 independents support it. When you take executive action,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: it is always best to do it in the face
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: of a specific congressional failure. That's what DACA was. In
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: this case, the messaging of this is, I didn't want
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: to do this, but Donald Trump and the Republicans forced
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: my hand because Donald Trump blocked the bipartisan bill that
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: would have given us the resources to better secure the border,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: so I have to do this. And if Republicans will
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: come back to the table and work with us, if
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump will get out of the way, then we
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: can do this through the normal course of business. There
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: is a message here. And presidents always look better when
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Congress isn't working and is broken. And particularly because one party,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: the Republicans in this case, are being overly partisan. And
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: then you're taking action. That's what DACA was. That's what
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: much of President Obama's executive actions in the run-up to
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the election were. were about related to the economy, right?
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: When Republicans were blocking his jobs act and he was
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: trying to do as many things as he could. And
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: so the politic, you know, will there be blowback? Absolutely.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Is it gonna be blowback that could cost him or
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: at least further inflame some segments of the party who
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: are already unhappy with him over other issues. Absolutely. So there,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, there is no, he's president of the United States.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: There's no risk-free, there are no risk-free choices, right? It's
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: only 51, 49 decisions, uh, that you have to make, uh,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: and take your gut on it. So it sounds like
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: they are headed in this direction. Um, maybe they're holding
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: out some hope that Congress could resuscitate something. Um, maybe
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: as part of a deal around Ukraine.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Or at least be vocal about giving Congress the opportunity
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: to do so, right? So one more time he's established
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: that I tried.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And that's important, right? Especially given what we say
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: and what he says about, in the beginning of that
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: clip from the interview, about Donald Trump being a dictator, right?
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: You have to show your work before you take the
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: executive action. I think he has done that, but Joe
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Biden has an eternal faith in the ability of Congress
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: to get things done that, um, has actually worked quite
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: well for him as president. But, uh, so I can,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: he will always, I mean, you and I know this
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: from working with him, he would always want to give
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: a deal, you know, Republicans a little more time than
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: necessarily folks like you and I would before we, you know,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: took the deal off the table, took an executive action,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: blame them for not doing the deal. And, you know, that's,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: that's why he's president of the United States and we're
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: doing this podcast right now. But All right. The context
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: of this interview is struggles with the Latino community in polling.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: A Axios-Ipsos Latino poll, which is quite a thing to say,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: and I don't know how Axios and Ipsos decide not
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: to rebrand this, but an Axios-Ipsos Latino poll shows that
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Biden's lead over Trump among Latino voters has dropped from
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: 29 points in his first year in office to only
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: nine points now, and a mere three-point margin among Latinos
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: who say they will vote in the fall. Those numbers are,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: as they say, not great. There's no way to win
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: with those numbers. What do you think is going on?
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: Do you buy that biggest shift among Latino voters? There's
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: been some people pushing back on the idea.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't, I don't buy that. I don't buy
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: that big of a shift. I do. Um, and I know,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: you know, some of our, uh, colleagues that, uh, uh,
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: you know, work in this space with, you know, trying
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: to doing geo TV and, um, uh, you know, other
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: voter rights work and, and, and, uh, the Hispanic community,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: like they don't, They're like, that's just not going to,
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: you know, same thing I hear from people without, you know,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: work in the black community. It's like, that is not
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: going to happen. That's not, that number is not going
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: to be what ends up being Biden's vote. I will say,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: you know, I've been to a lot of Trump rallies
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: and went to one in Hialeah. And, you know, he's
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: got a lot of support in the Hispanic community. You know,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: it is, there's an interesting alignment. Some people, expressed to
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: me about they're like, Oh, you know, somebody from Venezuela
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: who was like, well, this is what, this is what
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: happened in Venezuela. The, you know, person with the power
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: tries to jail their opponent, you know? And you're just like, right.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: This is, uh, that's how they, they think that Trump
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: is going to, you know, all the things that we're
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: worried about Trump doing, they think Trump is going to
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: stop Biden from doing right. That's just like, it makes
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: your head spin, but that's where some people are. And
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: then just, it's just the same thing that's happening in, Um,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: you know, that's sort of, I think the, the white
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: voters were first, the demographic, the gender, the gender gap.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: And my understanding is that the, most people that are moving, um,
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: from the Hispanic community are moving, uh, Trump's way or men.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: And mostly working class, non-college educated.
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: So it's, it's the same, it's the same shift. And
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: you know, that, that, that, um, his appeal, his appeal,
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: you know, it, it, it spans over a lot of different, demographics,
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: you know, there's just, there's not, these people are not
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: a monolith. So I don't think it's that bad, but
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: he's making inroads. I see it.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: The not a monolith point is very important because in,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: whenever people talk, you know, and talk about the Latino vote,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: it's often treated as a monolith and that's just absolutely correct. Right.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: There are, you know, you make the, you made the
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: point about people in Florida whose roots are in Venezuela or,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: or El Salvador and, You have Puerto Ricans who are
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: voting in Florida or New York or elsewhere. You have
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: people whose families have been here since the border crossed them, right?
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Where you come from, how long you've been here, whether
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: English is your primary language at home or not, they're
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: all different. And then you see different issues that are
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: important to them, different responses to the candidates, different views
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: on the parties. different views about the importance of voting.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: And so it's like, it's always such a tough thing
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: to talk about. Cause you can actually have like a
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: 17 hour podcast talking about if you were to do
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: it justice. And so it's always important to do the,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: not a monolith caveat before we then sort of revert
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: back to probably painting with too broad a brush. You know,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I hear all the same things you have, like, it's
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: not going to be, you know, he's not going to
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: only buy himself, not going to only win by nine points. Or,
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: you know, or he's not, but Trump's not going to
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: get 15% of the black vote. And that may be true. Like,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: who am I to say? We don't know what's going
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: to happen. There's going to be a lot, you know,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: there's just a lot of time for Trump to make
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: his case, Biden to make his case, organizing to happen.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: But it's like, that is such a false binary because
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden won by 50,000 votes across six states. Right.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: It's like, that's the whole thing. And like, yes, if
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Trump's making inroads, that's too many.
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: It's like, where are we going to like it?
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: You know, in my view of it is, is, and
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: it is fair. It's also fair to say that these
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: polls are all over the map. Some show a huge
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: shift like this Axios Ipsos poll. Others show a smaller shift.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Almost all of them do show a shift from 2020
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: and 2020 was a pretty big shift from 2016 to
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: And so you get a sense of what's probably happening here.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: And even if it's all fake and all the polls
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: are wrong, we might as well just sort of prepare
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: for the worst and hope for the best, right? It's like, oh,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: you know what? These polls are wrong. It's not going
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to be that way. We'll spend less money. We'll run
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: less ads, right? That's like obviously not the right way
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: to look at it.
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: But within the polling, there is clearly two topics, three
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: topics really. One of them is immigration and the border.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Two is the economy and primarily cost and inflation. And
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: three is crime. And these are issues where Trump has
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: been stronger than Biden. much of the polling. And so
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: it fits with some of the trends. Now, I guess
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the question here for you is, how do you win
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: these folks back? Is it building up Biden? Is it
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: tearing down Trump? Is it a little of both? What
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: do you think?
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: It is a little of both. I think, and I've
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: talked to the Biden campaign about this. It's like, do
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: you need to choose between shoring up your accomplishments and
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: tearing down Trump? Does the spring need to be about,
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: particularly with the Latino community. And you see that they're,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: you know, they're doing this in their travel and in their, like,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: in their targeted ads about, and what the president did
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: in the Univision interview about what he's accomplished on the economy.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: You know, I think Hispanic unemployment is at a record low.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: I think small business growth among Hispanics might be at
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: a record high. But there are good stats that, you know, again,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: I feel like it goes back to, like, he has
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: to prove he has a plan and it is working.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: And I think That has to be part of it.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: The economic numbers, Trump has always, you know, we, I
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: think you'll agree. I know the campaign feels this way.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Trump will always do better than Biden on the economy,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: but Biden can cut into that lead by a showing
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: that Trump is even Trump supporters believe that when push
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: comes to shove, he will sell them out to help himself.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: Like they, they believe this. So we know that that
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: message works, that he's in it for himself. He is
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: not in it for you. And Biden is going to
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: fight for you. And then I think you have to
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: show what he's done. It's interesting. They did something today
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: where I noticed they talked about lowering costs, taking action
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: to try to lower costs. This was Whitmer's message in
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: 2022 in Michigan. She did ads about how she was
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: trying to help people fight. help things be more affordable
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: for you. That's more tangible, right? And then this like amorphous,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: like the economy is doing better when people think that
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: prices are still too high. And so I think that
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: he has, and then, you know, and then you got
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: to make the anti-Trump argument as well. But I think
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: particularly with this community, there's more, there's a lot more
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: they need to know about what he's already done.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: You got to win. You got to win people back.
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: It's like that's easier than trying to convince people who've
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: never been for you. So winning them. So I think
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: it went in the back. It's like you voted for me.
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: It worked. We got a plan. It's taking hold. He's chaos.
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: He's all these things. Stick with us.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. It's obviously a little bit
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: of both because there is there's just this massive, massive
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: knowledge gap when it comes to President Biden. He for
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: so many voters, he doesn't. basically was elected, gave the
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: inaugural address and then disappeared for three and a half years. Yeah. Right.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: And just he, it's just, they didn't. And that is,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: that's not even really, it's not even a critique of
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the white house communication. I mean, just the way the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: world works, right. The way the media works, the way
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: it treats Biden to the extent they heard anything about
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: it was his age to the extent they ever saw
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: him speak. It was generally out of context. clips often
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: pushed by right-wing interests on TikTok and Instagram that made
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: him seem old. It's just people tuned out of politics
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: and the mechanisms by which people would run into political
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: news sort of just organically, you like kind of bump
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: into it, disappeared after 2020, right? You don't see political
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: news on Facebook anymore. Twitter doesn't really exist for most people.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: Meta is suppressing political news on Instagram and threads. And
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: so People are watching less cable, right? He just disappeared.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: And so you have to reach this threshold. They really
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: think he hasn't done very much because he hasn't been...
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: And Joe Biden does not want to dominate the conversation.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: It isn't really his forte. And so Obama and Trump
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: were omnipresent in our lives during their presidencies because they
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: were sort of cultural figures. Biden doesn't want to be
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: a cultural figure. I think it's a very admirable quality
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: of him, but he has suffered somewhat politically because You know,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: it's like Obama, if you weren't paying political news, you'd
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: see him on ESPN talking sports, but also pitching the ACA, right?
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Trump is just fucking everywhere all the time, often not
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: to his benefit, but Biden wasn't. So you have to
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: sort of get back to that. Now, the one issue
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: that I think is really interesting, and I think it's
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: sort of the sleeper issue in this election, particularly the
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Latino community, is the Affordable Care Act and Trump's plan
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: to repeal it. If you watch the whole interview.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I read your message box.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Yes. Thank you. Thank you for reading the message box.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: As everyone listening to this is obviously doing. As everyone
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: listening to this obviously should. Thank you. At the end
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: of the interview, Biden's been there for 40 minutes, right?
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: The guy's like, the interviewer is very tuned in to
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: the White House aide miming their watch, pointing at him
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: from afar. And he's like, well, I guess we're out
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: of time. And Biden's like, wait. You didn't ask me
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: about the affordable care act immediately goes in and talks
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: about Republicans tried to repeal it 50 times. And like,
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: cause that one of the, like, that is a huge
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: issue for Latino community in 20. You remember this from 2012.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: It was even popular like back in the day when
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: we worked in the white.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: House, the number one issue, the number one issue with
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Latino voters in 2012 that made them support Obama over
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Romney was not Obama being better on immigration than Romney
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: who had a very Trump esque position on immigration. It
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: was that Romney wanted to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: And so I think we're going to see a ton
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: of ads on it. I knew this. Biden was clearly
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: briefed that you've got to get the ACA in there.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: And he was very focused for this interview. He did
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: such a good job. Yeah, he was like, wait, you
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: haven't asked about the ACA. Well, I'm going to tell
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: you about the ACA. I don't care. And he did it.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: And so I think that's one negative argument on Trump,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: where he is clearly not fighting for them, where he
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: wants to take something away. from their lives.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: He's big into that.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Big into that. That is huge. Taking things away is actually,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the fear of something being taken away, I think is
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: now more present for voters than the hope that they'll
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: get something new because they have so little faith in
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the system. And they, and this is partially because of Dobbs, right?
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: You had the right to choose and then you didn't, right?
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: And you're now you have healthcare and now you may not.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: That's always been true though. That was a big lesson
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: that Bill Clinton would teach us in the Clinton White
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: House is like people, like we were trying to sell healthcare.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: they are always going to believe that the government is
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: going to take something away from them. They are not
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: going to believe that what you're offering is going to
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: benefit them. It's going to benefit someone else. So what we're,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: you know, just to say like lay the groundwork for
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: like what we're trying to do is really hard. And yeah.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: And now they're, Trump's in the position of being the
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: one that's going to take something away.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: All right, man.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: That was hard. That healthcare thing was hard to get done.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: Wasn't it?
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Yes, it was. Nothing makes me happier to see that
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Kaiser family foundation tracking poll every month showing it's more
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: popular than it's ever been before. It's just, This makes
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: me very pleased. One last thing before we go to break.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: In case you missed it, Tommy and Roger Bennett of
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Men in Blazers have teamed up once again for another
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: season of World Corrupt. This is one of my favorite
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: podcasts that Crooked has ever done. This time they unpacked
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: how Saudi Arabia, yet another oil-rich nation with a troubled
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: human rights record, has secured the role of 2034 World
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: Cup host. You can listen to the whole series right
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: now by heading to the Podsafe the World feed. I
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: promise you it is fascinating. It is funny. It is interesting.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Check it out. Look, it's an election year, and if
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: you aren't using your children to push out political messaging,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: I frankly don't know what you're doing. Therefore, go to
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: the Crooked store to pick up brand new I Can
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: Vote But You Can onesies and toddler tees for all
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the kids in your life. Shop all Crooked Kids merch
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: by heading to crooked.com slash store to shop. Last month,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: you were on Polar Coaster, my subscriber-exclusive podcast that everyone
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: should be listening to. And if they aren't, they should
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: go to crooked.com slash friends to subscribe. We love an
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: organic plug, or maybe not so organic plug in this podcast.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: But anyway, you were on right after the New York
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Times Sienna poll came out, and the vibes weren't great.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: But since then- I can't.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: Believe that was only a month ago? Oh, my God.
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I recognize time has no meaning anymore,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: but I'm pretty sure it was a month ago. Yeah.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, or it was last month. Oh, yeah, yeah, okay, yeah.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: I'll check my calendar. It's been a while. But since then,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: the president has given a fiery State of the Union,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: and the campaign's ramping up with millions in ads. There's
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: now been more than a dozen polls in recent weeks
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: that show Biden with at least a narrow lead or
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: tied with Trump. So with seven months to go here,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: it now seems like a good time to take stock
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: of the campaign. What do you think? Has the race
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: moved in Biden's direction? Are you feeling better than you
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: felt when we talked last month?
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, that seems enthusiastic. No, no, no, no, no.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: I am definitely feeling better.
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think that the State of the Union
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: was key because not that I expected the polls to
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: move out of the State of the Union, but everyone saw,
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: first of all, like all the nervous Democrats and everyone
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: who did watch, which is, you know.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: More people watched the State of the Union than the
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: women's basketball game, but not a lot more. It's like
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: what you saw was like, oh, he's fine. And he
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: will be fine through the election. Right? Like the man
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: who delivered that State of the Union is not going
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: to crumble between now and the election. So we're like, okay,
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden is great. He was feisty. I thought that
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: speech was really well crafted, particularly well suited for him.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: Like that was all great. And I think you and
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: I are both like in other in other venues, we're
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: both telling people don't expect the polls to change. If
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: they do, that's great, but don't, they may not change
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: until Labor Day, right? Like that people, it's March. And
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: just because the election, it's like, okay, the general election
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: is happening. We want all the polls to change. It's like,
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: it was March. The polls were not going to change.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: And say the fact that he, what makes me feel
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: good about it is they have a plan. They have
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of money. They're executing their plan. And at
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: a time of relative quiet where they can kind of
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: control things, like that's, I feel like that's a period
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: we're in right now with big estrus of Gaza, they
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: are moving the polls. So that shows you their team
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: is good. It shows you that they have a smart
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: plan and they're executing it. There will be times something
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: terrible will happen. You know, it's a long way to go.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: Bad things will happen. Those polls will go up and down.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: but I have this sort of foundational faith in him
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: and the campaign. I just said before that I have
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: like faith in the, the ground operations and the battlegrounds too.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: When was the last time a Republican won a statewide
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: in any of those States except for Brian Kemp and
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: the governor in Nevada, but not, but not, you know, uh,
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: not the Senate race in Nevada in 22. So yeah. Yeah.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think you have to feel better, right? Obviously,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: as you said, the president, he, he, Now, he didn't
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: just clear the low bar that Donald Trump set for him.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: He did a great job, right? And if you were
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: nervous about his ability to navigate a convention speech, debates,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: all of those things, he showed he can absolutely do
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: it and that he can do it quite well. And
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: people who saw that or saw clips of it feel better.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: And I've seen this in focus groups that had a
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: real effect on people where they were believing the caricature
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: of Biden, right? And now you have Biden You have
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: that great ad where he talks about his age. He's
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: out there more. The campaign– they're driving a message now
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: in a way they have not done in a long time.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: They've been sort of on their back foot for several months,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: just largely dealing with Gaza, dealing with just the challenges
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: of being president, the attention the Republican primary was getting,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: and just this– they were stuck in this cycle of,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Biden's too old. So the polls are bad. Now the
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: polls say now the polls are worse. No, Biden must
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: be really too old. It's just, they kind of broke
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: out of that.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: Biden keeps getting older. Yeah.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: He keeps every day. He's older. What are we going
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: to do? Zero days since Biden got younger. And he,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: and so like that, like they're Trump's on the defensive
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit more than he has been in a
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: long time. And that's all, that's all great. Right? Like that's,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: that's what you want, right? You're going to, We should
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: be realistic that a tie national poll is a– given
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: the bias of electoral college is a race Trump wins.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: So Biden– he won the popular vote by millions of
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: votes last time and lost the electoral college. So he's
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: going to have to do better. You want to start
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: seeing some movement in the swing states. We've seen a
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: little of that in some polls. You want to see more,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: but all good, right? Like I said, let's take the
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: win here, right? You mentioned how the campaigns are funded.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: So let's say Trump claims that he raised $ 50 million
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: in one night from a bunch of billionaires. Whether that's
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: true or not, who knows? But as of April, the
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Biden campaign had twice as much cash on hand as Trump.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: They've hired 300 paid staffers and opened 100 offices. And
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: according to NBC News, Trump and the RNC just hired
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: their state directors for Michigan and Pennsylvania only last week,
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: and they only have less than five staffers in every
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: battleground state. Look, as every... MAGA Yahoo on Twitter will
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: point out Hillary Clinton famously outspent Trump. How much does
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: this money actually matter? And what's your take on how
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Biden is spending it thus far?
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: So I feel like it matters. It's really important that
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Biden has more money because he's the one that's not
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: being heard, right? You kind of made this point before.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: So it is, he needs money more than Trump does
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: because Trump doesn't have any problem being heard. And Biden has,
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: and it's not just Biden. It's been a hard time
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: getting heard. Biden has this amazing story to tell. So
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: it's not like, oh, we got a message. We got to,
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: do ads to message to these people, like why they
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: should continue to hang in there. Um, even though we
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: got nothing done, he's like, you know, sometimes Democrats are
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: in the position of doing, he has a great story
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: to tell. So I think that, and also the, you know,
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: and the ground game, right. That's like, I feel like
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: that's why it, it matters. And from what I can
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: discern from the way they're spending it now on ads,
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't, you know, I don't have a
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: good sense. I don't, do you have a good sense
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: of how it's going digitally and, Because, you know, I'm
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: just assuming that, and this is, you know, what I
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: understand to be the case is that they are, that
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: the ads that we see pop up, you know, because
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: they get announced are then going, are being tracked to the,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: you know, platforms that the voters that you need to
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: reach actually are on.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: Right. So you got to, you know, I'm just like
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: taking on faith that that is happening.
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: But I think it's good. I mean, I feel good
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: about that.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah. There had been this talk when Trump sort of
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: glided through the primary without having to face too much challenge,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: no real diminishing moments, no losses of consequence, that he
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: had sort of eroded Biden's incumbent advantage. But the way
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the campaign has come out gangbusters since the State of
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: the Union, I think proves that's not the case. They've
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: been planning for this moment. They had been building the
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: infrastructure to do it. They had a strategy. They had
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: a message. They'd done the testing. They'd cut the ads.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: And they were ready to go. And they were kind
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: of waiting for the starting gun of the State of
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: the Union. And what they have done and the way
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: they've turned up the volume, the ferocity of response on
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: things like Trump's abortion statement today, some of his crazy
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: things he said at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend. is a
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: sign– the $ 25 million fundraiser, right, is a sign that
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: they have the infrastructure in place to do it and
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: they were very well prepared for this moment. I have
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: very little concerns about– I have no concerns really about
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: the execution of the Biden campaign, right? I don't think–
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: if he were to lose this race, it's not going
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: to be because he didn't run a good campaign, right? Infrastructure-wise, organizing-wise,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: running smart ads. I think they know what they're doing, right?
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: We know all those people. They're all of our friends.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: We worked with them in the White House. We worked
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: on previous campaigns. They know what they're doing. They're going
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: to be very good. And even if the Trump campaign
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: is better than it's been in the past, I think
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: the Biden campaign is still much better. Much, much better.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: I wonder what you thought about that, the notion that
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: the Gabe Sherman piece in Vanity Fair about how the.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Trump campaign is going to display. I have a lot
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: of thoughts about that piece. They are better. But being
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: better does not mean being good. And one thing that
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: I think, and this is important on the money thing,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: because everyone says 2016, 2016, 2016. And it's Trump. And
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles are clearly better than the
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: complete group of knuckleheads and grifters who ran the previous
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: two campaigns. Like, yes. God, the grifters. And they're better
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: than replacement-level GOP consultants, right? Chris LaCivita in particular has
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: a long record of winning races for Republicans. So he's
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: a person actually qualified to run a presidential campaign, which
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Trump has never had working for him on any level before.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: But the way in which he was able to win
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: despite– or come close in 2020 even with having much
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: less money to spend, those ways are not available to
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: him anymore. He does not get the free media attention
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: he used to get, right? We live– No, he doesn't.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Trump was the monoculture in America from 2015 to 2020,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: and then he disappeared. And his ability to– like he
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: just doesn't dominate the conversation anymore. It's just the ability
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: to– speak to, for there to be this one singular
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: political conversation is that does not exist anymore. The social
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: media platforms don't allow it to happen. That's not how
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: media works anymore. It's not how people consume information. We're
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: living in these algorithmic, individualized algorithmic prisons in some of
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: our news consumption. And so he just can't do the
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: thing where he's so dominant that he drowns out everyone else.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: And I think this is one of the most important
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: things about this election that is not talked about enough
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: is that Facebook was a massive asset to Trump all
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: the way through. And that's how a lot of people
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: were being fed his messaging was because you'd go on
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: Facebook for whatever reason people went on Facebook, right? You're
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: looking at your friend's kids. You're checking on an event.
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: You're just mindlessly scrolling in line at the grocery store.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: And you were getting, because of the way the algorithm worked,
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: a ton of very pro-Trump content or very anti-Biden content
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: or very anti-Hillary content in 2016. That doesn't happen anymore.
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: They've changed the algorithm. And so that was free. That
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: was absolutely free messaging. And that's gone for him. And
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: I think that's a huge deal.
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: That's a really good point. Yeah, huge deal.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: His campaign is going to be better. They're clearly strategically smarter.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: What he did on abortion today was clumsy, but it's
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: a sign that he reads the polls and is trying
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: to win.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: We have to make sure it doesn't work, but it
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: was the right, it was the smart thing to do.
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: That's right.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: That's right. So I think they're doing better.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: But I still think Biden's advantage is huge. And on
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: the money thing, I think this is really important too,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: is he raised $ 50 million. But a lot of that money,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: as far as we can tell, goes to super PACs.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: And this is the thing that I think people forget
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: is a dollar to a campaign is worth exponentially more
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: than a dollar to a super PAC because by law,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: TV stations have to charge campaigns, the actual campaign, the
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Biden campaign or the Trump campaign, or the Gallego campaign,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: or the Casey campaign, the lowest rate. And they can
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: gouge the living shit out of a super PAC. So oftentimes,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: you'll see these stats at the end of the campaign.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: We saw this a lot in 2022, which is like,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: on the Democratic side, there was $ 100 million spent on
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: making this up. And on the Republican side, there was
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: $ 150 million spent. But when you actually do the measurement
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: called share a voice, if the number of ads run
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: or like ratings points behind ads, the Democrat number is
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: way larger because they're getting more ads per dollar. than
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: the Republicans. So the super PAC money matters, but the
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: fact that Biden's raised $ 25 million for his campaign and
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: Trump raised $ 50 million, some for his campaign and some
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: for a bunch of super PACs, there's a difference there.
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: And I think that's just an important thing to remember
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: as we talk about the money. All right, Jen, you
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: were recently in the battleground state of Michigan talking to voters.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: What did you hear? Did you come away feeling better
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: or worse? Why were you in Michigan? Why were you
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: at the Trump rally in Hialeah? That's a question I
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: meant to ask you earlier in the podcast. Because after
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: you were on Polar Coaster, you cited being at many
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: Trump rallies. And many people, including some of our producers,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: were curious as to why you went to so many
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Trump rallies. So at least you maybe put your trip
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: in Michigan in context and your frequent attendance at MAGA
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: events in context.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: The circus would send me to a lot of Trump rallies.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: But I got to tell you, I miss going to them. Sadly,
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: the circus was canceled. Um, Showtime kind of doesn't exist anymore, but, um,
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: I miss going to Trump rallies cause you just learn
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: so much. Right. Um, and you just get a lot,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: you just get, you just get texture that you, you
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: don't get anywhere else. And so, um, I still make
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: it a point to, um, go to battlegrounds, um, and
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: just get a feel for how things are going on
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: the ground. And my husband had to go to Grand
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: Rapids for the, you'll appreciate this for the, um, National
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: Wildlife and Natural Resources Management Conference.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: A wild event once again.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: I know. Jim, you know, that's my husband does. He's
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: a conservationist. And so I was like, oh, I'll go
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: to Grand Rapids with you for five days for spring
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: break and just see what's going, you know, what's happening.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: And so Grand Holm was there. I got to tell you, like, Biden,
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: Evan Ryan, the head of cabinet affairs at the white
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: house is doing a good job because when I, when
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: I was there, I saw three cabinet secretaries.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Well, coincidence, obviously.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah. The secretary of energy, Jennifer Granholm, the acting secretary
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: of labor, Julie Sue. And I think it was Buddha judge.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: I think Buddha judge was there too. So, um, but
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: what was good, they did Granholm was doing a tour.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: She went from Ohio to, to, uh, Michigan to Wisconsin.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: I think it was like the kind of route she took.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: And I shared like massive announcements, every single stop, you know,
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: like just, she just drove. She didn't even have to
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: get into a plane, massive announcements, every single stop, a
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: lot of local press, uh, all about investments in these
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: three States. And I talked to one of the members
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: of Congress there. Um, and she, and you can say she,
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: and you don't know who it is because there's so
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: many women members of Congress, um, for Michigan. Um, she's like,
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: She's like, the investments are starting to break through. The
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: people know about broadband. They know about those investments in broadband.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: They certainly know about infrastructure. Some of the EV stuff,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: while it's complicated in Michigan, there are jobs that are
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: coming because of it. That's a positive. People are making
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: the connection back to Biden. They know about $ 35 insulin,
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: and they're starting to pare back to her the national
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: abortion ban being on the ballot. And that's really important
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: in Michigan because they just passed a constitutional amendment to
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: protect abortion rights. So in 2022, so you could think, oh,
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: maybe Michigan's not going to really care, but they know
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: that that's a possibility if Trump wins and Republicans win
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: the Congress. So it felt like there is a lot of,
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: even there's whatever the Biden campaign is doing in Michigan,
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: but then there's a lot of Biden administration, you know,
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: legit activity as well. And The one, you know, just
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: one quick story that I think has showed the power
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: of this is there's a nuclear power plant in, it's
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: called the Palisades in Western Michigan. It was decommissioned a
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: couple of years ago. The plant stopped operating and it
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: is going to come back from a bunch of state
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: incentives plus a loan from DOE. And there were workers
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: at that event that had worked at the plant for
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: 25 years, lost their jobs, had not worked anywhere for
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: two years, and now are getting their jobs back. You know,
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: and it was like, people are crying. It was like
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: a big family reunion. And you're like, that is changing
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: people's lives, right? Like that kind of, that's not a stat.
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: It's not like, you know, the unemployment rate is this
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: point percent, whatever. That's just, you know, that's like real impact.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: And so, There's a really great story to tell, I think,
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: in the, in these battleground states. So I came out
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: and people are engaged, you know, felt good.
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: That's great.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: That's great.
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's, you know, like you don't know, you don't,
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: you don't, you don't know what you don't know. You
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: don't know what's going on on the Trump side, but
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: in terms, again, in terms of executing the Biden strategy,
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: it felt good.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: That's a great place to end this. Thank you, Jen,
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: for joining us this week. And we'll talk to everyone
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: again soon.
• 54:39
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  Speaker 5: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
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