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The Favorites - NFL Week 10 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week ten episode where we break down the
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exec
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: decision and our assignment says and start to narrow down
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the options for our five phaves to put into the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We went two and three this past week, a miraculous
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: two and three. It came down to rookie quarterbacks twelve
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: second scramble that turned into a touchdown covering play, Thank you,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Drake May and a veteran quarterback's overtime bomb that turned
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: into a one handed game winning in game covering catch.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you as always, Matthew Stafford that our Favite Friends
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: is betting in a nutshell live from our Tommy John
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always, buy my co host,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: my companion Mike and padre My BFF Professional Better Sigmon
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Hunter at us.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: I'm ed, Chad. How are we doing? My man?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Big Day? Big Day? You know what today is Yeah.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: No, It's biggest day of the year for many of us,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: isn't it.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I think I know what you're talking about. Do you
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: know what you're talking about? Yeah, trade deadline, trade deadline.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: It's rocking and rolling right now. We've got Marshaun Lattimore
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: leaving the Saints, yeah, one to the Commanders. We got
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Mike Williams leaving the Jets, He's going to the Steelers.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: We've got Zadarius Smith leaving the brown leaving the Browns,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: He's going to Debt Dot Dot dot the Lions. Like,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of stuff going on. We're definitely going
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: to discuss those moves. Do we think they have any impact?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Because what's interesting is all of these guys have gone
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: to teams that are contending. All of these guys have
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: gone to teams that are involved in games this weekend
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: where the numbers might be showing an edge one way
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: or the other. So how will these moves impact, if
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: at all, our opinions on these games? You know what
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I'm saying.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, are there any teams You're
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: surprised I haven't made moves? Right now? For me? Houston
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: jumps out I'm shocked they've not made a single move.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess they know they're gonna get guys back,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: but like their offensive line has been brutal, and you think,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe just try to get one of these
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: cheap receivers. Like there seems like there's a lot of
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: guys out there that teams are willing to move right now,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: so they're eyeing that pops out to me of like
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of teams that made moves today and they're
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: the one at the top of their division that hasn't.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: That's a little shock. And where we've seen the Bills
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: make a move, we've seen the Chiefs make a move,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: We've seen the lines make them move, Like these are
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: the teams that are the same level as them. Like
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: that's that's just it's interesting they haven't made a move Houston,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: where they were so aggressive this past offseason.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but they've been really interesting in how they're managing
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: their draft picks, and they probably look at what they
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: have and are thinking, Okay, we're a really talented team.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: We can probably win our division. We believe we can
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: win our division without having to make the desperation move.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Whereas if you look at the Commanders, they're still locked
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: in a race with the Eagles. If you look at
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the Lions, they know they're going to have a hole
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: at the edge without Aiden Hutchinson for the rest of
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: the year. So if you look at the Steelers, they're
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: going to be locked in a race if they're lucky
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: with the Ravens. So I can see why the why
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the Texans would hold off for a minute because they
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: probably feel like they can at least win their division
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: and probably not going to be in contention for a
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: buye so it might be worth it to hold. Pat Simon,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: what the public has done the past few weeks is
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: nothing short of historic. In a moment, will recap the
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: week nine results in our contest, will announce the winner
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: of our big weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: be sure to sign up for the Free Favorites Podcast
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars pro football pick and contest presented
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: by Bet three five. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new BET three sixty five.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: When you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars a place to bet for five dollars
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
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  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: three six five, must be twenty one or older and
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Congrats week nine first place
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: winner Jay Shively. Jay went five to zero, missed the
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Monday Night football tiebreaker by one yard. He takes home
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: our weekly thousand dollars prize. Well done. Producer Matt Mitchell
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: has selected his Producer's Cup Award to the entry that
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: finished dead fucking last in the contest. Have you heard
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: about the Lords Loser?
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: He's a lois about he still kids.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: On Try this week's Producer Cup goes to Robert Ferrer,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: who went on to five missed the tiebreaker at two
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty one years. Robert, please email our producer
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: at podcast at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: All right, I mentioned it. It's worth reminding everyone when
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: we talk about the public, we're referring to the games
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: they get more than fifty one percent of the betting tickets.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: You can always track all that in the Action networkapp
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com. You go to the adds pages on
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: the site, the public betting pages. You can see where
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: the betting ticket percentages are. We usually like to fade
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: that side. The past three weeks, the betting public has
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: gone forty three twenty nine and one against the spread.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Prior to that, it was winning at a covering at
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: a forty one percent clip. So they are the almost
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: the mere opposites of each other. The first five weeks
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: was the worst the public had ever performed in twenty
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: years of tracking. Past three weeks, it's been quite good.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: That is what we are battling right now, Simon, are
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: we ready to die? Then to the full slate, because
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I know we both got an opinion on Thursday night.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't wait.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati Baltimore. We talked about it Sunday. I'm not mistaken.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: We both love the Bengals here. I feel like this
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: was the game other than the Rams that you mentioned,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: with the most conviction.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just on the number, right, it was six and
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: a half. I said this, this can't stay this high.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: This is going to have to come down, Like, there's
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: no way this number stays as high in the divisional
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: game in our short week. We already talked about our
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: questions about this Ravens defense and can they get healthy
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: and just turn it around in a week's you know,
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: four days, Like that's the tough thing about these these
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: Thursday night games, Like we'll see the injury report, right,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: I'll have better read on that Thursday morning. But that
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: was really all about grabbing the six and a half
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: early because I knew it was gonna come down. Now
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: it's at six. Saw a couple of books pop five
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: and a half and I kind of jumped back up.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: So clearly there's professionals that like the other side as well,
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: which makes sense, right. The Ravens have been incredible, and
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: we know how good their offense is. Lamar is playing
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: at the MVP level. So this game is just a
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: really great Thursday game and we're just playing the number.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: But it's one that I'm happy we can't put in
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: the contest, honestly, chat because I could see us taking
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: this Bengals team and they're just having some type of heartbreak,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: right They're just this season has not gone the way
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: they planned, even though Joe Burrow is playing at such
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: a high level MVP level. Man, is their defense bad?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's interesting to me. I feel like we
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: would definitely put this in the count.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't let us say, like, this is what's been
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: burning us this year, this exact game.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Well, look the challenge here is, and it's at six.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: I'd still better at six, by the way, I did
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: bet it at six.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, at six, I bet it at six.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: And And how much are we taking away from the
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Ravens being dominant against Bonnicks, right Like, I feel like
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: they're getting I feel like they're getting the benefit of
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: the doubt and a little bit of an inflated number
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: from bookmakers and from the public. And because Bonix couldn't
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: take advantage of their truly awful secondary and their season
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: long inability to stop the passing game. And so remember
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: this is again, this is a team ten days ago
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: that made Jameis Winston look so good people wanted to
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: bet on Jamis Winston following week, Like the transitive property.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: We got to think about that. We can't just look
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: at these games in sort of one window, right, And
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: so the Bengals number one against pressure, the Ravens defense
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: twenty fourth. The Ravens d has given up forty eight
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: explosive plays this season by far, most in the NFL,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: twenty eight passes of twenty plus rushing yards. So we
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: know that the Ravens rushing offense will dominate the Beangals
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: like they're pass They're rushing defense is not good. It's
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: not good. So really, to me, this goes back to
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: what we talked about early in the year, like who
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: are the quarterbacks? We don't want to see with the
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: ball when they're down, And if the Bengals are down thirteen,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: which is possible with four minutes left, yeah, and they
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: have the ball, do I really not want to have
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: bet on Joe Burrow.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: It's also they played early in the year and we
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: should have won that bet we took the Bengals. I
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: think it was at plus two and a half and
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: it was the wonkiest game ever. Remember Joe Burrow had
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: that interception and that kind of flipped the whole game,
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: like they're about to go down and I'd be up
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: double digits.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, so we know this seems on that scary.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: My old issue chat is just the spread, Like that's
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: why I didn't get when it opened at six and
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: a half. It's like, I know it's a Thursday games,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: we're getting extra points here for free, but shouldn't I
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: go out the window when it's like these teams are
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: pretty evenly matched in the same division. So that's that
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: was my only hesitation was why is this number so huge?
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: And maybe it is because the books know all the teasers,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: all the parlays will be tied to this, right, people
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: like tying these games until the Sunday and the Saturday slate.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: That's just my hesitation here is like, yes, this is
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: very attractive, Dumble. We're not shocking anybody here. Most professionals
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: on the same boat as us. It's like it's a
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: big number. I like that side. I'm just trying to
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: give you the hesitation of why I think I wouldn't
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: make it one of our five. Is just there's all
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: something a little fishy about them giving us this huge
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: of a number. It's as if they're saying this Ravens
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: team is about the role, like going a little bit
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: of a run here, because I agree, the Ravens have
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: not played good well enough this year to get this
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: many points, so I know we have to keep it moving.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: But it's just it's an interesting number that's this high
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: with the Ravens defense that, like you said, until last week,
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: they hadn't stopped anybody.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Home teams Thursday Night this season six and three, but
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty, it's six and three against the spread
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty eight and forty two against the spread.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Home teams have more than three in the AFC North
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. It's how infrequently it happens because these
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: teams are always so tight. Twelve and twenty against the spread,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: so interesting. Fans and number favorite Bengals who day New
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: York Giants, Carolina Panthers. Another game we can't put into
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the contest. It's the Germany game. Zero opinion on this game.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones had zero passing yards in the first half.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Last week, the Giants dominated time of possession of the game.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: They ran for one hundred and forty year olds in
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the first half. They lost, They didn't cover. These are
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: two teams that are just at the bottom ten in
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: every single statistical measure. The European trend in international game says,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: here we go, take the favorites. Yep, I guess that's
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: what you do.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: That's what you do, Like, don't ever think it. Just
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: take the favorites, take the number. I agree. Another fishy line, like,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: in what world should the Giants be a minus five
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: favorite over anybody? It's it's when they're in an international game.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm with you on that one. It's I'm
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: glad we can't put it in either because I unfortunately
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: I do have to bet the Giants here. But I
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: make the line minus six, So right now there's a
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: point of value to this Giants team. But it's simply
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: because it's an international game. I really playing it heavily
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: towards the favorite for international and it's been profit this year,
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: right I think, yeah, yeah, overall it's it's it's really
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: worked out betting just the favorites in this international games.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Oh sign, I know I'm a sucker.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: The New England Patriots are visiting this game. Cargo Bears.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears are six and a half point favorites. I've
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: gone deep into the rabbit hole on this game, uh,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: because this is one of those games where I'm actually
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: trying to fite my intern obias. So I wanted I
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: want to gather like as much as I could, like
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: to make sure I'm not doing anything with the Bears
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: that could be perceived as bitterness because I'm just so disappointed.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I'm so disappointed in this team. Like I'm so disappointed
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: that they kept Eberflus. I'm so disappointed when eber Flus
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: has lost the team. I'm so disappointed. There was this
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: viral video going around yesterday amongst Chicago fans where they
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: showed all these plays, one where DJ Moore just walked
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: off the field in the middle of a play, one
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: where he stopped running on it out, you know, like
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: like I needed to find the forest for the trees here.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: I don't want to fall prey to the notion that
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: like we've seen something special in New England just because
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Drake May gave us our baby miracle and Caleb Williams
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: is completing fewer than thirty percent of his throws of
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: more than fifteen yards, which is like amongst the worst
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: in the league. But Jared Mayo is a terrible coach. Two,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: he called the team soft and yeah, got two miracle comebacks.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: One was a win against the Jets and ot loss
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to the Texans. Like I know what I think we
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: should do? Yeah that the Patriots.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but I would say the number dictates if for
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: you're here, like, there's one more there's one book out there,
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: that's the six and a half. If you want the Patriots,
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: go grab it. I'm cool with waiting and let this
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: be bet down. If we can get five and a
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: half on the Bears, I would take that at that
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: once a move that much because this was seven, and
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: I think the number the move is warranted because when
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: this opened at seven, it's like that's that's too many
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: points for this Bears team. That like, like I said,
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: that game against Washington mighty dictate their whole season, Like
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: how are they going to respond to that? So far?
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: Their response is terrible In one game, man, Now, this
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: is the exact spot they need. I told you before
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: that game too against Arizona Caleb's splits were terrible, his
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: road and home splits. His passing is just like it's
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: It's clearly there's there's something going on there where, like
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: he is more comfortable at home for some reason. And
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: it could be who they played, right, They've played bad
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: teams this year at home and on the road. They've
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: had tougher games. But I think as a whole, the
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Bears have been good to us back in them at
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: home in this exact spot. So I'll let the public
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: come in and bet this down. But I did want
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: to be on the Patriots, but this point the number
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: is gonna move too much. And at six, which where
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: I pretty much just make the number, I'm not gonna
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: just take the numbers to take. I'm gonna wait for
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: them to be value. So if it's five and a half,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: I'll definitely go Bears. If it's six and a half
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: on the Patriots, I'll probably end up just passing.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Well, that's interesting. I thought you'd be much more adamantly opposed.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: I wanted to go on the Patriots, but we got
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: a whale. Like you said, we got a whale one
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: last week like this, this Patriots team is not good.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, they're not a good team.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: We so got away with it. Yeah, last week we
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: did not deserve that. That was one of those where like, yeah,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: you say you bet the number, you bet the three
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: You do that's that is the definition of a brother
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: and landed right on three, Like you just play the number,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: you try not to overthink it.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Well, that's not what we've been great at this year.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: You're right line.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll keep an eye on that that
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Bears game. I don't want to dwell on it as
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: a Bears fan for the five people who's enter the
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: show that are Bears fans. But wow, has this just
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: gotten like if you are watching Chicago paying attention to
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Chicago media, this has gotten ugly. Like Heberflus has been
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: revealed as the fraud of a head coach that he
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: is and as good as as Ryan Pace has been
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: in managing draft capital and making trades, he screwed the
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: poo which I'm not fire and Eberflucent and every Chicago
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: fan will tell you that it's because the casks are
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: cheap and don't want to fire a coach before his
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: contract is up and have to pay two coaches. But
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: it's gonna cost him. It's gonna bite him in the
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: ass on Caleb, it's gonna bite him on his development,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: gonna bite him on losing a year of his contract
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: in his rookie and his rookie deal. Just bad Minnesota
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: at Jacksonville. This was a fascinating game to me because
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I would say this was the last game I took
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: notes on in prepping for the show today because I've
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: been trying to think about where's the edge, and like,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a huge edge in the line.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: It moved from five to four and a half to
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: four feels right.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: I felt like the pros were taking a stat on
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: a big number at five and moved down because that's
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: how they felt the number was rated. To me, this
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: is really like a transition game. And what I mean
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: is we've seen peak Sam Darnold and we've now started
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: to see him struggle a little bit more a few
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: games in a row, and we've seen the Jags have
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: made huge comebacks two games in a row. They haven't
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: won those games, but against the Packers and against the
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Eagles like they were in it at the end. So
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: then I'm like, are we missed the number. Are we
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: fading a Vikings team? Are we trying to get the
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Jags on the upswing? Or am I overthinking it?
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah? And I you know, I talked a couple of
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: professional guys who liked the Jags or they liked this spot.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: But I'm I'm totally out on this Jags team. They
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: are another team that feels like I get why guys
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: like them because they're never out of it, as proven
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: by last week. The thing about all the little things
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: that it bounced air way, I mean, they were down
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: twenty two nothing whenever the score was to get that
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: back door cover and even then Trevor Lawrence made such
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: a tale where read I can't get over it. Yeah,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: like that could have changed their whole season, that type
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: of win. Uh, But yeah, I get why the pros
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: like it. Like me and you talk, we've we knew
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: eventually the league would catch up to San Donald.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: You only can do the things he's great at for
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: so long before defenses are like, okay, we'll take that away,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: make us beat us in a different way. And that's
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: what teams have been doing. But that was a great
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: game by him, Like they were down seven nothing in
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: a half, and you know, obviously the defense carried them.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I don't think the Colts took a snap inside the
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: Vikings twenty yard line, which is pretty incredible. But San
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Donald makes big time thres and we talked about the
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: whole thing with Jayme and Justin Jefferson, like he just
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: has so much trust in him. So this is another game.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: I'll wait, like the pros can keep betting. If this
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: gets a three and a half, I'll come in on
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: the Vikings. But I'm with you, it's like I don't
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: want to touch this number right now.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like we missed the spot. If anything,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: would you have taken it at five, I would.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Have been the Jags, But I wouldn't have bet it
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: with confidence because it's like I still feel like the
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: people in the public have overreacted what to that cover
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: last week, Like if they if they get rolled, we're
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: getting good number, we're getting six, six and a half
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: on them, then then this is like, yeah, great spot
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: for the Jaguars. Now I think it's gone the other
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: way where the Vikings in't look great in that primetime
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: game and now the public is kind of like, yeah,
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: I'll take the Jags of the points. You're like, this
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: feels like a pretty good spot.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: So that's what it feels like. Yeah, it feels you know,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: just at the most base level, it feels like people
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: are betting what they saw. I agree, Pittsburgh at Washington.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Washington is a three point favorite. As an Eagles fan.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: You said before the show, it's upset into you how
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: much you love this Washington Commander's team.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: Just Chad, that was off air.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Well, guess what, there's no such thing. If it's if
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: it's if we're seeing it before we come on the air.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, I got an image. I'll pull it here.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I know it's true. You're hardcore Philly. Listen f around
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: and find out Simon f around.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. I love this Washington team. They're fun.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: They're a really fun team. And now they've traded they
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: made the true for Marshawn Lattimore. Will that improve their secondary?
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean it can't hurt, it can't.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: It's I don't think it's a yeah. Oh my god.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Now I gotta bet the Commander's at minus three in
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the same way that the Steelers training for Mike Williams
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: is and all of a sudden, all right, that did
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: it for me, right, This is a Mike Tomlin raw
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Ross spot. What a raw rah Mike Tomlin spot.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: We win the game with this cruel bodies right here today.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Game to day.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: We decided on Sunday we talked about this game. We
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: were gonna wait to see if it get to three.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Didn't get there Sunday night, didn't get there all day Monday,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Finally got there about eleven thirty this morning on Tuesday morning.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: The Steelers might they are a big, big public dog
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: right now, and the wise guy seem to be favoring
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the Commanders here. Interesting, Tomlin is a dog on the
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: road sixty one percent against the spread in his career.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Why do you say interesting? Did you feel like the
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: wise guys would have been on the Steelers automatically here?
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I thought it was gonna be public heavy Washington
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: the professionals to come back on Pittsburgh. But I mean,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: I think from the chat, I feel like Evan had
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: an amazing stat about Tomlin against rookies. He's like twenty
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: five and five straight up against rookie quarterbacks. I mean
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: that might not be right, Evan, let us know, but
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: it's a stat where it's like you can't ignore those
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: type of things. Clearly, he knows how to prepare his
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: defense to really messed with these rookie quarterbacks. And yeah,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: the fear with this is we are betting on this
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh offense to travel on the road and we don't
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: know if that's possible yet. And we've seen Washington defense
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: isn't as bad as we thought they were going to
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: be coming the season. They've actually been pretty good. So yeah,
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: the two and a half, I said it on the
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: show and Sunday, if you wanted it, I'd grab Washington
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: there because I was like, it's only going to go up.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: And yeah, now, like you said that, the fact that
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: there is early professional money coming on that side, I
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: don't mind it. Like last week we met a public
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: dog and we got away with it and the Patriots,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: and I feel like it's the same spot here. It's
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: like I don't think the book's given a proper respect
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: to that team, and that team in this case is
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh where their defense does match up well and offensively.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I do think there are things they're kind of figuring
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: out with Russell Wilson before the bye week. Now after
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: a bye week, don't we think their offense will be
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: better now with him after more time to prepare. So yeah,
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: all the points to taking this plus three number.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, especially now with Mike Williams Simon, this can
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: be the game they need to really secure. The compliment
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: to George Piketts. This is it. What's interesting to me
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: about the Steelers defense. They're not like dominant as they
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: have been. Like they're not dominant in pressure rate, They're
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: not dominant in expected points per pass. They're like even
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: yards per pass, yards per game, completion rate, like they're
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: pretty mediocre. There's two things that stand out. I wonder
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: if you even care about these, like as a professional,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: better time to pressure the quarterback, meaning the amount of
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: time that a quarterback has to throw the ball, which
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: they're doing without blitzing. Like they're third best in the
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: league and they're doing this without blitzing the quarterback. Obviously,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: they're much different with Alex Highsmith when he's playing, and
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: he missed those four games basically most of October. This
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: is third game back after missing the month. I think
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: this could be the best pass for us that Jaden
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Daniels faces. If you look back at their schedule, it's
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: not like they're playing, you know, killer teams. It's the
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Bears and it's the Steelers right now. And he struggled
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: against the Bears. I know people in the track get
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: mad about that he did struggle against the Bears.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just before we move on, Evan just confirming our chat.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Tomlin twenty five and five straight up against rookie quarterbacks.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: So come on, do we think this is an EXAC decision?
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Do we think this is a Simon says.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: You can take it exact. I got. Simon says, I
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: got something gross for the people.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I do too. I have four games that I identify
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: for my EXAC decision.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: All right, if you don't want this, I'll take it.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: What's that I'll take the Simon says, if you don't
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: want it. When Simon says do it, we do what Sence.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Says, all right, take it.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Well, you seem like you were excited about your gross games.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: I'm not excited about mine. For the record, it's just.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not excited about mine. But you know, it's like
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: I've had this experience the past few weeks now where all.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Right, Matt tripping his hair out. All right, Simon says,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: give me Pittsburgh plus three. All right, I can sense
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: Mat through his computer.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Now it's a euphemism, you know, Matt ripping his hair out.
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: The Bills make me want something. Throw your hair and
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: something throw your hair.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Come on now, the Bills.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: I'm making it now.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at Indianapolis. Indianapolis is a four point dog. This
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: has moved in the Colts direction. Not entirely surprised. This
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: feels like a Bilo cell high scenario.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: The Colts looked truly offul against the Vikings. The Bills
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: overcame a lot of mistakes, had to play to win
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: a tough divisional game against the Finns. They've got a
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: ninety chance to lock up the division. The Colts are
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: a covering machine, third best in the NFL. Four and
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: oh at home. I don't want to take the Colts,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: but I feel like I have to do.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: No one wants to take the Colts. You have to
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: take the Colts. People. This is what the show is
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: all about. It sucks. I hate it too. This is
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: gonna be signing says Honestly, it's like, oh, was it really?
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: And it's just it's a brutal I get it. This
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: is so brutal. For listeners out there, there's a couple
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: four and a halfs. If you can shop around, please
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: take the Colts four and a half. This is such
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: gonna be a close, ugly game where people a gonna
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: be like, how did they cover that number? Like we
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: tal talk all the time, you just play the number here.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: I have just at three and a half. I've talked
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: a couple of pros who think this should be three.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: So you know, again, I'm a little higher than most
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: on this Bills team. I just really love what Josh
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Allen's done with them, and the Colts team is such
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: a great bilough. Like we just said, their offense on
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: national television couldn't get the ball outside the twenty for
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: an entire game like this is such a bounce back spot.
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: So I think the last time they played it is
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: a crazy memory. I think me and you had bet
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: the Colts plus three and a half. Oh no, that
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: was last week. Never mind, never mind, I was thinking
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: back to that Thanksgiving game. We were up thirty points
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: with a three and a half spread with the Colts
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: and the Vikings game all the way back.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that was that was actually a year ago.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: This, yeah, that was that was crazy, But there's nothing
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: to do with this game. But yeah, I like like
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: the Colts here, and the biggest thing to me is
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: just the run game. Like we saw last week against
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: that Vikings team. It really did fall on Flacco. He
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: just wasn't completing passes. If he does that a game,
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: obviously we're dead in the water. But I still think
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: their run team can move the ball, and that seems
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: like that's the Bill's weakness. I mean, h n everyone
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: in Miami. I think they rash for one thirty or one.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: It just seems like that that's the Bill's weakness, like
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: pretty noticeably on defense this year.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what we've said a lot this year is when
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: we've bet these bad teams, we're looking for sort of
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: some kind of edge in one unit over the other.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: And there is a clear distinction between the Colts run
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: blocking scheme. Forget about this past week against a incredibly
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: good Vikings defense. That is not who they're playing this
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: weekend against the Bills. They have a clear edge in
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: the run blocking scheme. So especially there's a run blocking
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: offensive line, all right, Colts would have been Simon Says
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: instead the Steelers or Simon Says I mentioned at the
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: top of the show that we are coming to you
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home studios. Great games start
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• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. Okay, Denver,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. I'm not gonna allow you. This was on
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: my list of potential exec decisions. You blanted this one
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: a bit on Sunday night, and you want to see
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: if it got to ten. But I did feel like
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: you were hesitant. I will tell you division favorites of
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: seven plus, covering just a forty nine percent clip the
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: past twenty seasons. Mahomes is a fave of three plus.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: We know that's an ROI positive to bet against, including
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: last night Monday Night against the Bucks. So the question becomes, like,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: how much do we worry about this Broncos defense When
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: they just played the Ravens, everyone was so high in
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: this Broncos d we were not. We're like, this feels trappy,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: So we didn't bet the Broncos and they got filaid
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: by the Ravens, right, and so like they've played a
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: really easy schedule. It could be a reason why their
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: defense has been so good and ranking so well. But
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I do think like it's a very different story in
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: the division. The Broncos getting the early money. Unlike last
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: week at Baltimore, teams off a blowout of twenty plus
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: points fifty seven following a week against the spread, and
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes tweaked his ankle numbers moved from nine and
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: a half to eight and a half since last night.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're on a short week, so everything, You're right,
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: everything was plenty of taking this to every team. My
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: hesitation is just what you talked about the top. They
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: beat up on bad teams this year, and it took
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: Baker to play literally a perfect game pretty much in
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: that game for the Chiefs, so you have to sweat
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: it out right, like, I mean, it was incredible how
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: well he played, And that was a game I was
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: kicking myself where it's like we knew that number is
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: too big. I just didn't know how they were going
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: to cover it. And it was just really a miracle
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: cover by by Baker. He just played so well in
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: that game, made such big throws. Can boon Nicks do
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: the same chat like that? That Ravens game, they could
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: have covered it, but all their fourth down luck kind
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: of ran out on them and all the little things
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: that kind of bounced their way. I mean, it might
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: have been the first pass or second pass of the game.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: Bnext through, a guy hits the guy's hands, pops her
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: up in there. It's a pick by the Ravens. It's
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: like it just started off on a bad foot. So
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. It's I wanted to be on Denver.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: I was hoping to get a bigger number. Obviously it's
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: gone the other way because the Chiefs didn't cover. They
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: won barely in overtime. So the movement makes sense. The
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: early money coming on Denver makes sense. There is another
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: line shot. I'll probably wait. I mean, if it gets
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: down to seven, how do I not take the Chiefs
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: like they're the better team. It's gonna be the public
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: dog of the week, this Broncos team. But at eight
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: and a half, I'll take the Broncos right now. But
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: I just know in our contest that that's not gonna
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: be the number. It's gonna be bet down to six
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: and a half, seven and a half.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I wonder if the Steelers will be a bigger public
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: dog than the Broncos just because of the Steelers' history
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: and the Broncos just getting blown out by the Ravens.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not pulling the trigger on exact decision on this game, however,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: but we like the Broncos at eight and a half
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: right now. Atlanta at New Orleans. We talked about it
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night before Dennis Allen was fired. We liked
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: the idea of backing the Saints. The line popped at
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: three and a half in a lot of places. It's
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: now back down to three home division dogs last two
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: seasons forty against the spread, So not a great killing me. Yeah,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: not a great spot there. But now are we in
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: for the dead cat bounce? Is the team so thoroughly
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: embarrassed it can rally at home against a Falcons team
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: whose record is just much much better than its numbers.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Can they do it without Chris Olave? Can they do
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: it as a dog off a loss as a seven
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: point favorite. By the way, since two thousand and three,
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: sixty percent against the spread for teams in that spot.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, this to me feels like if we're
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: going contrarian, if we're going to fade the public, if
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do everything that is the opposite of what
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: the square thing would be. You take the Saints here.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: No brainer, automatic one of our five. That's what like
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: we joked on Sunday Night, but this is literally what
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: this show is. It's like we buy low on the
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: lowest of teams, and this is the lowest of teams
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: right now, and you're selling high one of the highest
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: of teams in Atlanta. Like we both agree Atlanta, as
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: good as they've been, they're not that great of a team.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: Like you can go back and look at a lot
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: of their wins and it's like they could easily lost
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: those games. They've just been incredibly fortunate this year. And
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: even if they win this one, it's not gonna be
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: buy more than three Like this to me feels like
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: the very classic whoever wins? I mean when they played
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: earlier in the year, what was that a win by
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: two Atlanta on a last second field goal? That feels
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: right like that feels like the exact same kind of
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: scenario here. And Drake London being banged up though it
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: is even bigger deal than me than Olive, Like he's
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: been huge for that team and especially Kirk on third
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: down this year. So hopefully there's no Drake London because
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: that would be another big bonus to us, just because
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: I don't think Olave is gonna play. And how's that
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: we already talking about? How is that not a big
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: deal to Deavin Carr, who's not that good of a quarterback?
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: I can I can admit that, especially after watching that
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: last game, like that Panthers game was brutal. I think
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: at the end of the game was fourth and three.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: Instead of just picking up the first down, he throws
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: a deep fifty to fifty ball and it's like that.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: I feel like he's done that every time. We've had
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: so many games in which we were betting the Saints
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: this year, and so we've obviously watched them, and I
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: feel like I've seen Derek Carr make that same shitty
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: throat fade on a fourth down that ends up being
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: un catchable probably three times.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: So here it won't matter because we'll be down by
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: two at the time he does it, and we won't
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: even care. We'll get the cover. So this will not
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: be in my money line round Robin. This will not
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: be I won't do that to people because I don't
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna win. I think Atlanta they have whatever.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: The Saints don't have to win these games close at
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: the end. Atlanta's has it right. Kirk has done it
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: this season in multiple different games. So yeah, this is
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: not what I'm putting in too much on the money line.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: But plus plus three and a half now I'm definitely
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: grabbing this year.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: All right. So this was one of the four exec
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: decision games I was thinking about. I'm not tagging it yet.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a six
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: point underdog, going to be in a short week playing
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: at home against the Niners. One thing matters here, Christian McCaffrey.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: He is practicing this week. He is expected to play.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: The line has moved. It was a five and a
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: half Sunday night, jumped to six and a half on
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: the news. It's down to six at Bet three sixty five.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Still some six and a half's available. This is this
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: is the difference, right, Like the Niners red zone has
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: been terrible. Yeah, they have not been able to unlock
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: any sort of any good results. And Christian McCaffrey's a huge, huge,
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: huge reason why it is a different player by the
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: goal line, and so that's why the number has moved
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: up in that sort of amongst the league's worst red
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: zone offense regress against a middling red zone d for
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: the box, some of which we saw last night. Their
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: inability to stop teams down by the goal line.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's still a couple of five and a halfs
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: out there as forty nine Ers team. So I would
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: say this is probably pretty split between professionals because I
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: honestly wanted to be on the Bucks at first, but
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: like you said, the McCaffrey thing, it's gonna scare me
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: off of it. I just I can't get over how
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: well coach that Bucks team is not even defensively offense
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: too well. Like there was a couple of plays the
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: Chiefs ran the Bucks defense knew the exact plays that
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: were about to be run, like they had really done
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: such a great, great you know, preparing for that game
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: and know the Vita Vey factor it Tinstry McCaffrey choose
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: to come back for this game. So yeah, and with
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: you Chet, if this is five and a half in
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: our contest, I could be swaded to be one of
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: our favorites we put in right, Like McCaffrey is just
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: such a game changer, especially for this team's identity and
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: everything they do. I mean we joked about it. Jordan
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Mason was great for his little role in what he
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: was doing, but the season beat him up and cheat
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: him out pretty quick. You know why, because he's not
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: a freak. He's not a one on one like McCaffrey.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Like McCaffrey is just such a game changer. So I
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: think automatia, we're going to see a giant boost for
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: this team with him coming back and at six and
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: a half, though, Chat, I don't know if i'd want
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: to play in the contest with five and a half,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: I could definitely be talked into it.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think it's to me. I'm actually not
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: even thinking about the contest. Right now, I'm thinking, how
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: do I like the number at six? And would I
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: make it an exact decision for myself at six over
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: a game like the Broncos or a game like the Saints.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: That's that's sort of my dividing line here, feels like
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: the line of demarcation. Yes, and I'm not quite ready
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: to commit to the Niners at six. If I can
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: get the five and a half, I would do that.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: We've been talking about this all year, like that delta
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: of a half point of the hook means so much
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: this year because the spreads are so much smaller. Haven't
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: just haven't had a lot of big numbers. So that's
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: that's where my hesitation is right now, waiting for a move,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: waiting for a move. Tough brother, So this stuff ain't easy.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers are minus seven and
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: a half. I dug deep here, brother, like I wanted
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: to back Tennessee so badly. Still, no Will Levis news
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: hasn't been confirmed if he's coming back. I actually want
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: to bet the Titans more with Mason Rudolph. This defense
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: for the Titans. This is when, like media analysis becomes
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: so facile. Because they will refer to Tennessee's defense is amazing,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: top five defense, giving up some of the fewest yards
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: per game two opponents. It's such a superficial stat because
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: if you look at every other stat on a yards
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: on a per play basis, the Titans defense is mediocre
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: at best, like just not very good, and there's always
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: sort of randomness and how you can give up a
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: lot of points or a lot of yards and things
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: like that. So then I decided I just got a
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: pass because, like I feel like it's a little bit
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: of inflation on the Chargers because people realize they beat
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: a Cleveland team. Everybody wanted to bet. So for me,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: it's a pass.
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I find out. I came around though, I remember
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: you liked Tennessee, I think Sunday night, and I really
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: wasn't pull in because it's just like the Chargers seemed
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: like they beat up on bad teams. But at seven
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: and a half, I'll throw a penny on it. Bum
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: with you. It's like, I don't know if I want
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: to want to make this one rather sweat out Flacco
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: than sweating out Mason Rudolph And then this.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Number, yes, by the way, agree, Yeah.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: So I am Benic because you're right, it's such a
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: huge number for this Chargers team. But like we said,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: they've been covering like against these bad teams, So I
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: like it just basically just because of the number. Nothing
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: else for me on this one. It's like I don't
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: like the Titans. You could say their defense has been
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: al right, where it's like you just said it, have
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: they been? It seems like they're okay against backup quarterbacks, right.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: They played Green Bay with a backup, they played Miami
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: with a backup.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Playing the Bears when Caleb Williams still didn't know how
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: to tie his shoes in the NFL, whereas now it
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: looks like he can tie one shoe, yeah, in the NFL.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Right, And like they when they got they gave up
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: fifty two to the Detroit they get thirty four to Buffalo,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: like so they do play good offenses, they do get
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: rolled a little bit. So I'm with you. I'm happy
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: on this one.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: For contests, why would we want to talk about Los
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans when we could talk about
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: the New York Jets and the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. One
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: a three game win streak, first place in the NFC West.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: They have got they just wont a game running the
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: ball at home the week before. They're on the road
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: down two scores in the fourth quarter, Kyler Murray dropping
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: dimes come back win for the Arizona Cardinals, spoiling Tua's
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: return from the concussion. Like this team, why wouldn't you
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: want to back them? The Jets are getting the money
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: in the tickets right now, and so it's like defade
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: the sentiment of the cards, like what we have seen
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: to my own eyes be true? Or are we betting
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: the Jets here?
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a tough one for me because I'm just
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: I'm clearly off on making a number against this Jets team.
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: Like I Houston is a one point favorite last week
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: against the Jets. Professional smart money hammered the Jets on
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: that Thursday night game. They were clear right, they should
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: have beat them by twenty points if not for all
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: the nonsets that went on that Jets team. But here
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: I have at Arizona minus three, they're only minus one.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: I don't get it. I'm with you. It's like, is
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: this not a slam dunk for Arizona? Arizona is really
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: good at running the ball. We said, that's why I
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: kind of like them against the Bears. Same goes for
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: this Jets team. This Jets team is good against the past,
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: they are so bad against the run, like comparable offenses
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: can run the ball. So is the book saying the
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: Jets are more desperate? Chat is are they saying that
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: Rogers will will his team on extended rusts to win
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: this game? Because I'm with you, I don't really understand
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: this number. So I'm happy to sit this one out
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: for an because I think I'll still if I want
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: to come on Arizona, I'll still get good value on it.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: But I'm scared. I can't lie to each other. I'm
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: somehow scared now the Jets after they played one good
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: game last week, because I really want to take Arizona here.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, I am too, and I think we've been
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: food by the Jets all season long, as has everybody else. Right,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: you see them play decently against a Texans team that
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: has a tremendous pass rush. We're going to get into
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: the Texans pass rush when we talk about the Lions,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: and so what the Texans did in that game was
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: really about what C J. Strout couldn't do right.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: If you saw that game change when Will Anderson went out, Yeah,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: like that's such a huge deal to that defense.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: I think that's exactly what happened. He left the game
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: and it became a different contest for them. It's really
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: like the Cardinals are just going to be one of
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: those teams they're hard to believe in because their defense
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: is really really bad. And while their defense look good
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: against the Bears, uh, they have not played well most
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: of the year and they have not gotten pressure. And
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: so what can this team do against Aaron Rodgers if
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: he gets any time and he's got Garrett Wilson ballin
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: DeVante Adams another week, Like they've got so much talent,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: it just makes you want to believe that they can
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: actually do something. It's so frustrating. It's so frustrating, and
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: I just looked it up.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: Dnika Ryan said that they won't know anything until closer
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: to the end of the week on Will Anderson. So
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: you know, whatever happened with him in that game against
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: that's huge.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Against the Lions, that was a big deal.
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: And you know Rogers obviously, if he's got time, which
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: he should have right against and there's anything that doesn't
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: have any dominant pass rushers we suspect, but they pressured
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: the hell out of Killa Williams last week.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Right, Like, I'm taking that with a grain of salt,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: because we talked about this before the game. The Bears
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: offensive line is terrible, like.
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: Short with the Jets. That's what I'm trying to get at,
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: is like, I don't get this line. I think the
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: books are being very telling making the line what it is.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: So it's just what I want to be cautious with
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: and be careful because I want to be on Arizona.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: But it might be another spot to back this Jets
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: team and I'm just missing it.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: Well, I bet we'll get some sharp calls about that one.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no doubt about it.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: All. Right.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Here we go, Philadelphia at Dallas plus seven and a half,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: the return of Cooper cut Cooper rush.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: There you go.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: The Eagles cannot close. They seem to be winning in
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: spite of Nick Sirianni. The Cowboys, no surprise, seem to
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: be losing because of Mike McCarthy, no running game, a
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: shallow defense that can't stop anyone is out. But and
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: this is the news. Micah Parsons likely playing in the game.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: And I will tell you right now, maybe I'm putting
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: too much of a point on it. Dallas Cowboys exact
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: decision plus seven and a half.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible honors next
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: to executive decision. As long as the seven and a half,
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: I'll agree with it. I'll take the seven and a half.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: But my hesitation here is when last time we saw
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Cooper Rush, that was on a really good Dallas team,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: that was with a good offensive line and a dominant defense.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: This this ain't that team. This is the scraps and
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: ugliness left in that team's wake. This is the team
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: that's paying for all those past team sins of Jerry
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: not making moves and not drafting well. And now this
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: is what we're up with. And I just give so
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: much respect to Dak. I feel like he was the
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: only thing holding this team up and that's why I
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: wanted to back them. And now he's gone for the
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: next four weeks. Just a season from hell for this team.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe the kid gives him a bump. I
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: think you're making this bet on basic on why I'm
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: making this bet, It's more about the Eagles less about
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys, that this Eagles team will find a way
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: to let this Cowboys team stay in it. So this
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: will be a fun game chat where I'll take the
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: seven and a half with you, But I'm also gonna
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: bet the Eagles minus thirteen and a half because I
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: could easily see them just blow this Cowboys team out,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: Like if they actually do put it together, it's not close.
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: How much better of a team they are right now, Like,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: and that's without Aj Brown, I'd still have confidence in it.
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: But matchup wise, you nailed it. Like this is the
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: ugly backup quarterback divisional game we after we take. So yeah,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: I'm already hating us for taking this, but it's like
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: we have to. It's seven and a half. That's too
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: good of a number to pass on this With Cowboys.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Home dogs a plus seven in the division fifty five
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: against spread the past twenty years in the NFC East,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: that number picks up to fifty eight percent. There's no,
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: like you said, there's no statistical reason to bet Dallas
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: in this game. They're they're truly.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: Awful, awful, and they're just injured, Like yeah, they're they're
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: they're just awful On they have no doubt.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: They don't have a lot of talent right now. The
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: coaching is not very good, but the Eagles cannot close
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: out games. Nick Sirianni continues to get in his own way.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: We don't know about AJ Brown, and I do think
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: this team is just a It's a much different team.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: You see them perform differently every time AJ Brown is
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: not playing, and I do think Michael Parsons coming back
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: is just going to be a huge difference for them.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: So you canbine the number. You can bind Micah Parsons,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: you can bind the spot the home dog of more
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: than a te touchdown in the division. This is a
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: game that people are going to want to pass over,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: and they shouldn't because there's some value here.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: Famous last words, Why do you laugh at me? I
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: just we just been making this bet all season. I
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: just this game literally pains me. I hate it, but
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: it's like, you're right, this is the right number to
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: bet in this matchup.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Well, look like you're right, and I'm wondering, and I
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: put in our notes here. We've been one back Dallas,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: like are they mirage?
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: We by a loon? And we literally have not found
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: the lowest yet.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: We haven't found the lower Are we seeing something and
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: expecting something that just isn't there? That's really Yeah, Detroit
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: at Houston. So look, this line was at four when
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: we spoke on Sunday night. It's now at three and
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: a half. Houston is plus three and a half. Shortly
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: after we spoke, it got up to four and a half,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: and then wise guys took a bite back. It actually
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: got down to three a little bit and bounced up
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: this morning. So we've been looking to fade this Lion's team,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: and we thought it might have been last week going
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: outdoors for the first time, Jared Goff a little banged up.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Do you want to coming back? Matt Lafleoor brilliant against
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: the spread, great scheme in all year. And I feel
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: like the one reason we've been betting this Lions team
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: is because what they're good at is something that shows
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: up every week, and that is just being physical on
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: the offensive line. Right. Their run blocking is superior to
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: superior to every element of the Texans rush defense. Please
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: tell me why we don't want to take the Lions
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: or do we?
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you said, because it's just they're they're
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: trying to suck us in there again and take They
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: want us to take Houston, and I'm not going to
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: fall for it. I just I can't find the reason
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: to back Houston other than the number. Like the number,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: Very's only reason I would back and was it's so
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: telling that is this a trap? Are we walking to
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: a trapper? Is Golf finally going to have a really
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: bad game? Right? Because he has not had a bad
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: game since Tampa And we were on that game. We
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: were on the lines against the Tampa and we both
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: watched it. They were what one for seven and the
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: red zone on scoring touchdowns in that game like total fluke.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: The fourth downs weren't working. We saw how bad it
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: could be last week, as much praise as we gave them,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: that was what a bad game? Right? And there by
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: Detroit standard, that was a bad game. They scored only
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: seventeen points on offense without that pick six. That looks
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: like a very different game. It's not as stretched out
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: as it looks. But that's the respect that I want
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: to give this Detroit team. That shows how they're complete
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: team that even when the offense wasn't totally on, their
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: defense was and when they needed him to be so
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: this feels like two teams that if this was Week one,
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: all over Houston in this line. But with all Houston's
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: injuries and the way Detroit's playing, what is this number?
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: Bizarre bizarre number? Like to me, this was like, okay,
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: this will be six and me and Chad will bet
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: six on Houston. That's when there'd be value. Now it's
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: down to I saw three at a couple of books. Chad,
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Yeah, yeah, Like I hammered Detroit when
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: it popped on three. I was hoping it would get
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: it'd be today for the three because that was my
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: Simon says, pick it's back up a three and a half,
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: and it's like, what am I missing this another game? Right?
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm missing something around this number, and I'm I'm
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: too high now on this Detroit team. But Houston's wide
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: receivers are banged up and their best d end is
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: banked up. He's day to day. They're not even sure
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: if he's gonna play this week. So yes, I am
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: taking the minus three and a half and I'll take
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: the three. I think this is a total headfake by
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: the professionals and they're just moving the number to get
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: a better number on the Sit Troy team.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: That's interesting. All right, Well, look, I think that if
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: you look at it from a matchup point of view,
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: the Texans pass rush is top three in the league
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: this year YE sack rate, QB pressures pressure rate, and
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: the Lions offensive line is a passing block as a
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: pass blocking team is truly excellent. It's more like top ten,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: not top three, So there is a slight edge if
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: Will Anderson is playing. Here's the other thing that maybe
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: gives me a little bit of pause. Can the Lions
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: defense stop Joe Mixon? If we know that CJ. Stroud
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: has struggled this year, and he struggled against pressure which
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: the Lions might be able to bring, he just hasn't
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: been as good as obviously missing Nico Collins and now
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs just hasn't been sort of the same clutch guy.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: The Lion's defense doesn't give up a lot of rushing
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: yards per game, but to me, it's similar to the Titans.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: It's like a red herring. They give up a lot
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: of individual rushing plays. Their yards per attempt is really high.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: There expected points allowed is really high. Their yards over
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: expectations an individual rushing plays is really high. That's kind
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: of what worries me is if you look at the
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: Texans knowing they can run the ball and having to
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: run the ball, will the lines be effective in stopping that?
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Houston's a really good team. They're obviously the best
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: team in their division for a reason. And all their
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: games this season have always been close. Even last week,
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, they somehow covered all If you bet the teasers,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: they covered for you, Houston, Like they found a way
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: to keep it down back to a one score game.
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: They've been incredible this season at doing that. So that's
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: a hesitation, right, Like this Houston team knows how to
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: pull teams down in the mudd and keep it scrappy
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: and keep it a one possession game. And you know
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: we back them against Buffalo, they got to cover for
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: us in a last second field goal. We bet them
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: against green Bay, same thing, right. Green Bay won on
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: a last second field goal. Would me and you sitting
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: here Sunday night be shocked Detroit wins on a last
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: second field goal and we don't cover this number? Wow,
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: Because that's that's what the books, that's what they're doing.
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: You're hanging this number. That's what they're saying is going
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: to happen. They're like, Okay, come in, come in, have
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: you on Detroit here They're gonna lose by a field
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: goal and we're finally gonna get all this money back.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: We've been losing Detroit because I still can't believe they
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: covered last week. That really was the week. But this
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: this team is they're a model breaker. So yeah, that's
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: that's my hesitation here is just this Houston team has
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: been great at keeping games close even when they're overmatched the.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: Season, all right, So we'll continue to keep an eye
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: on that one. Miami the Los Angeles Rams. You like
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: the Rams a lot on Sunday night. It is not
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: yet in public. It is not yet. It has not
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: moved in their direction as we expected, though, it's sort
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: of just sitting there. I think the wise guys are
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: coming in Miami. Yeah, I bet, I bet we'll get
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of sharp calls about this one. Are you reconsidering.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: I am just I won't make it as slam dunk
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: play as I thought it was going to be, just
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: because if you go back and watch a lot of
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: this Rams teams games this year, that that whole deep
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: ball then open up the middle of the field. They
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: have struggled at like stopping teams going downfield on them,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: And obviously we saw last week Miami just run the
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: ball down the Bill's throat, and I think that's a
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: lot of people think about their offense. But I'm still
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: viewing them as a Tyreek Hill waddle downfield, pushing the
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: ball downfield, and could they do it against the Rams.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: I guess maybe that's what the professionals are thinking here,
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: But I just think Miami's a bad team, Like they're
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: just they just seem like such a bad team to me.
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: That Yeah, Tua earned that cover last week. He drove
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: that field and got that last second touchdown, but that's
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: like a coin flip kind of game for them to
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: even be covering. Like they got very lucky with a
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: couple of calls there. And I think the value was
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: still there on this Rams team. I said it last week.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: I didn't think the books have given them enough credit.
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: That numbers should have been minus two, minus three and
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: a half or minus three, I should say on the
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: Rams last week got a little lucky, Like we joked about,
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: that was a bad Stafford game. Are you really going
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: to bet on Stafford having another bad game against other
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: bad defense. Miami's a bad defense, So yeah, a game
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: era I was gonna be really heavy on, I'm gonna
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: be a little more patient because I have talked to
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: professionals that like the other side on Miami, but I'm
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: not seeing I just think this Miami team, I don't
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: care how desperate they are. They're such a bad team,
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: like just across the board. So yeah, if it's under
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: a field goal chat, I'll still take the Rams. Here.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: We got a really interesting list that we'll get to
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: break down even more deeply on Thursday. I'm sure the
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: wise guys will have a good conversation about what our
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: thoughts are on these games, Like Steelers plus three, as
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Cowboys seven and a half is exec decision.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: We're still looking at Denver, We're still looking at New Orleans,
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: We're still looking at San Francisco, looking at the Colts
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: that would have been the Simon says, if not for
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: the Steelers, maybe I talked you into it, But geez,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Louise ty Lion's team. Man, They're tough to figure out, really,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: because also it's not even like now they're going to
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: be playing indoors on the kind of field they like
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: to play on, and aman Rosse Brown has caught thirty
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: straight targets.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: And again coming off a bad offensive game like they
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: only scored seventeen points. Like, it's just it feels like
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: a nice spot for them to bounce back. So there's
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: just there must be something I'm not reading right with
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: this line.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure we'll find out by Thursday. As a reminder,
• 1:00:31
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