Why Your Brain Overweights Small Probabilities

Behavioral Economics with Fexingo: Decision Making, Bias, and How People Really Spend · Jun 20, 2026 · 8m · transcript

Episode 64 of Behavioral Economics with Fexingo dives into probability weighting — why your brain treats a 1-in-100 chance as much more likely than it actually is. Lucas and Luna dissect the classic Kahneman and Tversky research, then turn to a real-world example: why people overpay for lottery tickets even when the expected value is negative. They explore how this bias drives decisions in insurance, investing, and every day risk-taking. By the end, you will understand why a 1% chance feels like 5% in your head — and how marketers and policymakers exploit that gap. Fresh angle, concrete case…