Latest / MenthorQ Daily / Nasdaq Rally: Why the Bounce Could Be Temporary | MenthorQ Daily - Nov 11th 2026

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Nasdaq Rally: Why the Bounce Could Be Temporary | MenthorQ Daily - Nov 11th 2026 · MenthorQ Daily

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hi traders, NASDAQ futures are up about 1.4% this morning, chips are bouncing 3-6%, and it's all happening one day after the hottest inflation print of the autumn put a half point Fed hike on the table.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: The bond market is closed today.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Tomorrow it reopens.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's the big question of the week.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get into it.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: This is Mentor Q Daily.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Gamma levels, volatility, and AI.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Every angle, every morning.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: This is Mentor Q Daily, the morning market brief from Mentor Q.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what we've got: three stories.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: First, the 50 basis point question and why the bond market's verdict can't come until tomorrow.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Second, a bounce that's built on one-day options and the levels where it runs into a wall.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: And third, NVIDIA, six days before earnings, with options pricing close to a 7% move in a single day.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with rates.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: October consumer prices rose 0.4%, core prices rose 0.3%.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's the third month in a row at 0.3 on core, and both numbers came in hotter than expected.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hours before the data, a Fed governor said a half point hike in December should be considered if core came in at 0.3 or higher.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: It did, so the market moved.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: The two-year yield jumped 17 basis points, its biggest one-day rise since April 2025, the 10-year hit 5%.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Money markets now fully price a quarter point hike for December, with a small but real chance of a half point.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the twist.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Today's Veterans Day.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: stocks trade a full session, but the cash bond markets closed.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: So that repricing's frozen.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Equities don't get the bond markets vote today.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: So where do you look?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: At the one rates instrument that does trade today, TLT, the long-dated treasury ETF.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: At menthor Q, we're tracking its gamma levels.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: TLT sits in positive gamma, about$950 million of it.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Positive gamma means dealers cushion the move.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: They sell the bounces and they buy the dips.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's why long bonds have been falling in steps, not in a cascade, even with the 10-year at 5%.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: The key line is the HVL, the line where Calm turns into volatility.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: For TLT, it's at 80-50.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: Pre-market, TLT is just 17 cents above it.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean for you?
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: If TLT holds above 80-50, the PIN holds.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: The first ceiling's around 81, and 83 has held all month.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: If TLT can't hold it, the regime flips.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Dealers start chasing the move, and the next stops are 80, then 79.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: And tomorrow, the bond market gets its say.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Jobless claims in the morning.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Then the first 30-year auction since the inflation print.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's the first real test of whether the pin survives.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: But before tomorrow, there's today.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: And today, the stock market's rallying on its own.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what happened overnight.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: NASDAQ futures climbed about 1.4%.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: SP futures, about half a percent.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: Chip stocks lead up 3-6% before the bell.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: On the surface, it looks like a recovery.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Underneath, it's built on options that expire today.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: At Menthor Q, we're tracking the options matrix for Nasdaq futures, and here's the detail that matters.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: At 1.12 a.m., Eastern, the intraday gamma regime flipped from negative to positive.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: A stack of same-day call options.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Zero DTE contracts now make up about 40% of the whole Nasdaq book.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: Dealers who short those calls buy futures as the index rises toward them.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: That steadies the tape.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: It also creates a pull toward the strikes where those calls sit, 28,400 to 28,500.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean for you?
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: It means the bounce has got a magnet and it's got an expiry date.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: All of that supportive gamma expires at the 4 p.m.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: close, today, before the bond market reopens.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Underneath, the end-of-day picture is still negative gamma.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's where dealers chase the move, so swings get bigger.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: The expected move for the session, how far options say price can go, is about 1.5%.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's roughly 27,500 on the low side and 28,300 on the high side.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what to watch.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: On the NASDAQ, 28,500 is the wall.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Call resistance and the zero DTE gamma walls sit at the same strike.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: 28,000 is the regime line.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Above it, the structure supports the bounce.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: Below it, today's cushion stops helping.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: On the SP, the ceilings 7625 to 7650.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: The regime line's 7550.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: And 7500 is where Friday's biggest put position sits.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: If those walls break higher, it'll take real cash buying, not just expiring options.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: If 75,000, 50,000 and 28,000 give way, the negative gamma book takes over.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: And the stock at the center of all of this?
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia fell 5.5% on Tuesday on heavy volume.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Three things hit it at once.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Reports say a major bank pulled it from its list of highest conviction ideas, along with Micron and LAM Research, while keeping buy ratings on all three.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: The board's running an independent investigation involving its CEO, and earnings land in six days on November 17th.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Pre-market, the stock's up about 3%.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: At Mentor Q, we're tracking the volatility picture.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: And for NVIDIA, it's extreme.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: Options are pricing a one-day move of about 7%.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: One month implied volatility sits at the very top of its one-year range.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: And the stock's in negative gamma, so dealers chase the move, whichever way it breaks.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's the contrast.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: On the SP, the Nasdaq and the Chip ETF, options are priced below what the market's actually been doing.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Realized volatility is higher than implied.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, index protection looks cheap.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia options don't.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: The earnings premium's already in the price.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: One more piece.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Our QCTA model tracks trend following funds.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: On Nasdaq futures, they're net short at the fifth percentile of the past year.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: The mechanical seller's mostly done its selling.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's one reason bounces have been sharp.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's also why there's no systematic buyer behind this one yet.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean for you?
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: For NVIDIA, 170 is the pivot.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's put support.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: Holding above it, with 175 reclaimed, is the minimum for the bounce to hold.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: 180 is the ceiling for the session.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Back below 170 and the next levels are 165, then about 163.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: For the chip ETF, SMH, watch 495 to 497.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's indicated to open above that zone.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: Holding it would be a real break.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Falling back under it puts 475 in play.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: And tomorrow night, Cisco and Applied Materials Report.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's the next test for the whole chip complex.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Before we wrap, a quick look at oil.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: WTI crude is up almost 1% this morning, near$87.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Brent's back above 92.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's after its biggest weekly drop since April 2020.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: Two headlines are pulling in opposite directions.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Iran's army says another tanker hit a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz overnight.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: The US has disputed earlier mine claims.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, Qatar says it's secured at least two weeks for diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: So which one wins?
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: At Mentor Q, we're tracking the gamma levels on the front month contract, and one strike stands out.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: 85.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's the put support, the HVL, and both zero DTE levels all at once.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: The front month's in positive gamma, so dealers cushion the move.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: And about two-thirds of that gamma expires on Tuesday, November 17th.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's a pin.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: Dealers tend to sell rallies toward 88 to 90 and buy dips toward 85.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean for you?
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: Above 85, the range holds, with 87 and 89 as today's ceilings.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: A break below 85 puts 84 in play, and the January contract takes over.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: That one's in negative gamma, with support at 8250, then 80.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: And remember, oil feeds straight back into the inflation story we started with.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's wrap it up.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: Three takeaways.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: One, the inflation print put a half point Fed hike on the table, but the bond markets closed today.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: TLT at 8050 is the line to watch.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Two, the Nasdaq bounce rests on same-day options, and that support's gone at today's close.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: 3.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia's options are pricing about a 7% daily move into earnings while index protection looks cheap.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: Here's where the levels sit today.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: SP futures,$7550 below,$76.50 above.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: NASDAQ futures,$28,000 below,$28,500 above.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia,$170,000.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: And tomorrow, the big question gets its first answers.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: Jobless claims in the morning.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: The cash bond markets back.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: The 30-year auction in the afternoon, Cisco and applied materials after the close.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: Then there's PPI on Friday, NVIDIA earnings next Tuesday, and monthly options expiration on November 20th.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: So, what happens when bonds reopen?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be right here looking at the data.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: This is for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Every level we talked about today is live on the MentorQ dashboard, and you can ask Queen about any ticker anytime.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Find it all at mentorq.com.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: See you tomorrow morning.