Latest / Closing Market Report / Dec 02 | Closing Market Report

Transcript

Dec 02 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the December 2025. It's giving Tuesday. Do visit our website at willag.org and hit the donate button at the top of the page.
• 0:14
  Thank you, by the way, for making that donation in support of agriculture. You can also call (217) 244-9455. You know, it's been a rough year for you and for us too. I hope you'll take some time at this holiday season to make a gift to WILL in support of agriculture. Put that in the comments section online.
• 0:37
  Willgive.org is the direct way to get there or let the folks on the other end of the line at (217) 244-9455 know and thank you in advance. Now coming up in this half hour, we'll talk with Naomi Blohm. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com about the marketplace. Ed Asit will join us from the University of Minnesota to discuss a broader perspective of the fundamentals of corn and soybean trade, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too with Don Day. He's a day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Giving Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
• 1:18
  Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. March corn for the day settled at $4.50, up a nickel. The May at $4.57 and a half, four and a quarter higher, and December at $4.69 and a quarter, up 2 and a quarter cents. January beans at $11.20 four and three quarters, down three and a quarter. The March at $11.35, down three for the day.
• 1:40
  Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Naomi. Thanks for being with us. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving holiday.
• 1:50
  Naomi Blohm: Yes. Thanksgiving was great, and right back at it here with December with markets.
• 1:56
  Todd Gleason: So did the bears or the bulls have Thanksgiving? I feel like I'm a little confused on that topic.
• 2:01
  Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So the bears did win Thanksgiving for corn, meaning that the prices of corn traded lower into that Thanksgiving time frame. The March corn contract prior to Thanksgiving in early November had peaked at $4.56 and a quarter, and then right around Thanksgiving on, November 21, we had traded lower going all the way down to near the $4.34 price area. So the market did trend lower into Thanksgiving, but then at that Thanksgiving time frame, bottomed out. And now we are about 15¢ higher from our Thanksgiving downfall.
• 2:45
  Now the thing to know about corn, which is actually kind of interesting, over the past eleven years, if you look between Thanksgiving and Christmas, eleven out eleven years, there has been a little bit of a rally for corn, March corn futures specifically, where the contract has on average rallied about 30¢ between Thanksgiving and Christmas. So that's a seasonal rally, a little bit of a technical rally as well, and we're already about 15¢ into it. So we'll see if it can continue into the month of December.
• 3:21
  Todd Gleason: So hopefully, corn will have Christmas. What do you see for soybean?
• 3:26
  Naomi Blohm: Well, I gotta tell you, I don't know what to make out of the soybean market right now. It's we've got a potential negative head and shoulders formation occurring on the March soybean chart. The market for soybeans peaked mid November, and fell back lower towards Thanksgiving, had a little bit of a recovery bounce, but yesterday on the soybean chart, we posted a bearish key reversal, and now today we had follow through selling, and we're below the five, the 10, and the twenty one day moving average. If there's further sell pressure, the next downside target is $11.25, but if this head and shoulders formation comes to fruition, the downside could point closer to the ten ninety area. Now, with the soybean market, of course, we continue to wait and see about China, and if they're gonna be doing any buying, of course, we think there are about 3,000,000 metric tons of soybeans purchased.
• 4:23
  Of that 12,000,000 that they're supposed to be doing by year end, they haven't been showing up the past couple business days, so maybe they're waiting for a price correction lower, then they'll step in and buy. But the soybean markets are, boy, it's kinda fiftyfifty right now. If we don't get any fresh news, I could see that market just having a very quick technical pullback. But like I said, if the pullback occurs, I think China shows up and buys, and then we go right back higher towards the end of the year. So be on your toes with that soybean market.
• 4:52
  Todd Gleason: So I do have to ask a quick question about the soybean market and the month you used. Why use the March rather than the January when you're talking about it?
• 5:01
  Naomi Blohm: Well, I guess that's just my personal preference. The marketplace from a bigger picture perspective, I feel March will encompass all of the South American weather. January, definitely, of course, it's front month right now. The chart for January to March is identical, but, of course, the prices are about 10¢ difference. It's a personal preference.
• 5:24
  Todd Gleason: Okay. I just made note of it, I thought, I'm gonna ask to see why that's the case. And Yeah. I like your explanation. I think you're right that, by the time we get to March, we'll have everything or most everything that's, gonna happen in the way and weather in South America built into the marketplace.
• 5:39
  What else are you watching particularly at this time? There's Ukraine, Russia. There's all kinds of other things happening in the planet.
• 5:47
  Naomi Blohm: Yes. So definitely Ukraine, Russia, and that was part of the reason why the wheat market was higher today. Putin got a little pouty today and didn't like some of the things that were happening with negotiations, and he said, you know what? I might just shut down some of the access that Ukraine has towards the sea place and some of the sea ports. So that was a reason for, I think we saw just a little bit of short covering and buying back of short wheat positions just in case something gets a little flighty over there and we we have a little bit of a flare up.
• 6:17
  But in general, we have the kind of a mix of things with wheat. So we've got strong US export sales, and I kinda feel like the USDA on next week, Tuesday's USDA report, should make the demand for US exports a little stronger. But when you look at the global marketplace, the global wheat stocks are viewed as sufficient, and there's been better production in Argentina and Australia. We're gonna likely see the USDA make those numbers bigger on the upcoming report for those two countries. So, it'll be interesting to see how we go into December here.
• 6:50
  On Friday, there's gonna be some government reports that get released that haven't been released for a couple months, so that's escaping me which one specifically it is. But we might have some market outside market influences as well going into that. So quite a few things to be keeping an eye on.
• 7:07
  Todd Gleason: And finally, because we talked about soybeans so much, are you looking at the 2026, and or 2025 and making sales?
• 7:18
  Naomi Blohm: I am still of the opinion with producers that, if you have beans at all that you're looking to price before the end of the year, I would use the recent rally that we've done in general to make some cash sales, because if China doesn't show up and buy anything soon, we could see this technical pullback. If you're in a situation, though, where you can wait until maybe January or early February before needing to make a sale, I would be patient to make some sales in that regard because there is a seasonal tendency for prices to then work higher again in January, and we still have a whole lot of South American weather to get through. And then if China does come into the picture and do some buying, that would be supportive to the market. And we still have to have a competition for acres for next year. Soybeans have a lot to, I think, not totally peter out for prices, and there still could be some upside there.
• 8:10
  But, again, the key still just comes back to China.
• 8:13
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much, Naomi.
• 8:14
  Naomi Blohm: You're welcome.
• 8:15
  Todd Gleason: That's Naomi Bloom. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. Hey. Have you taken time yet to purchase your ticket for the farm assets conference? If not, I hope you will consider it today.
• 8:30
  Go to the willag.org website and sign up. Register right now for the farm assets conference. It's coming up on the December. That's not this Friday, but the following one. In Bloomington this is a day long event.
• 8:44
  It's more important than ever that you understand fully the transition that agriculture appears to be in at this point. During the Parm Assets Conference, we're going to take that very seriously. We'll talk of course about the marketplace, about commodity markets like corn, soybeans, wheat, as well as livestock, beef in particular. But we'll also talk throughout the day as I help to guide this along about the transition in agriculture. I know that you were worried for a long time about the EV transition.
• 9:17
  That's still going to happen. It might just happen more slowly. And quite frankly, it was built into the RFS already. That's the policy that supports ethanol production. That was a fifteen year deal that ended in 2022, ramped all the way up to 15,000,000,000 gallons a year or about 10% of the nation's gasoline supply, and that's going to shrink over time.
• 9:43
  What's next? E 15 can fill part of the slot, of course, not all of it, and it might not even be quite maintenance. So what comes next? Well, we're gonna talk about those things during the farm assets conference. I hope you will join us.
• 9:58
  I hope it will be insightful. I think it will be. We put together a really good program for you, but you'll need to be there for the day to listen. You can do that by signing up for the farm assets conference. Register online, $80 including your noon hour meal in Bloomington at the Agra Center on Friday, December 12.
• 10:18
  Again, go to willag.org and hit register. Ed Osset now joins us. He's an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota and with extension there. Hi. Thanks, Ed, for taking some time, though.
• 10:43
  You are not in Minnesota today. You're in South Dakota?
• 10:47
  Ed Usset: I am in the capital of South Dakota, better known as Pierre, South Dakota, with their population of 14,000 people. And I drove here yesterday, Todd. That's not an easy drive from the Twin Cities, but I did it.
• 11:02
  Todd Gleason: How far is it?
• 11:04
  Ed Usset: Seven hours and 460 miles, I believe.
• 11:08
  Todd Gleason: So you drive that because it's the easiest way to get there? DELL:
• 11:13
  Ed Usset: Yeah. And I have to be somewhere else in Central Minnesota tomorrow morning, very early. And the flight to get here, there's no longer a direct flight from Minneapolis to Pierre. I got to go through Denver. I went through the whole scheduling, Todd.
• 11:30
  I looked at it, and as bad as the drive is, the flight schedule was even worse. So I drove it. Sometimes we have to do that.
• 11:41
  Todd Gleason: Sometimes we have to do that. Sometimes we need to make sales too. I'm wondering, given the rally in the soybean market, are are you thinking that producers who have not made additional sales yet might need to consider them?
• 11:59
  Ed Usset: I'm starting to talk about that. I've been talking about it for a couple of weeks. We are in Southwestern Minnesota, and I'm sure in your part of Illinois, we're 1.2 to $1.3 or more off our harvest lows. This is just over a six week period, really six, seven weeks. We're up a buck 20.
• 12:24
  Southwestern Minnesota, we're looking at cash prices approaching $10.5 And yeah, we were 9.2 here in mid October. I look at that, and I talk about spring being often a good time to get something done and people get hung up on that and I'm like man, you know this is the best price you've seen on soybeans for months and months. You never had your listeners had never had a shot to get $10 soybeans all through the last year on the 2026 crop. 2025 past that's that's over and done with. But the '26 crop, you never had a shot for it.
• 13:11
  This is the best opportunity we've seen. And I'm thinking, you know, take a good hard look at that. You don't have to wait.
• 13:18
  Todd Gleason: To get started is is your point.
• 13:20
  Ed Usset: Yeah. Get started.
• 13:21
  Todd Gleason: The next next crop year for the fall twenty six. Interesting. Yeah.
• 13:26
  Ed Usset: And and with old crop on '25. You know, the stuff you've gotten the bin. Absolutely. Absolutely. Both of them.
• 13:35
  The November 26 contract, I believe is around $11.20 to $11.25 a bushel. And, that's awfully close to a point where I wanna get started.
• 13:48
  Todd Gleason: How about for corn? What are your considerations?
• 13:51
  Ed Usset: Corn is just being a a pain in the backside. It really doesn't have a lot of rally to it. We we need something good to happen there. I'm not sure what it's gonna take to get a little more rally out of that. Maybe just a little better basis going.
• 14:08
  Corn is not exciting me much, not like soybeans. Know, keep an eye on the wheat market. That's had a bit of a bounce too particularly in spring wheat we are $60.70 cents off our harvest lows that looks and that looks also looks like an opportunity.
• 14:29
  Todd Gleason: Farmers will be waiting on corn because they believe that the January report will have some salvation in it I think meaning that there will be a lower yield and I think most of them are thinking rather than the 186 that it will be 182. What are you thinking?
• 14:48
  Ed Usset: Well, I sure hear the rhetoric. I read it and I hear it just like all of your listeners, and, what a disappointment if we don't lower that yield. What a disappointment if we don't lower that yield. I could see us lowering the yield a couple bushels per acre and that being bearish because we expected more. It's just one of those funny things.
• 15:11
  We have convinced ourselves. I do believe the market has convinced ourselves that this yield will be taken lower and that when we're that convinced that spells disappointment possibilities.
• 15:26
  Todd Gleason: This might be a time to have backyard it is and to look into your own bin and say, oh wait, I was as good or near as good as I have been in the past? Yeah. Yeah. Usually, say, don't don't have backyard it is because you had bad yields. That doesn't mean everybody else did.
• 15:45
  Ed Usset: Mhmm. That's right.
• 15:46
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. So this time around, it might be look in my bin and okay. We'll we'll we'll we'll we'll end that there. What do you worry about at this point with the marketplace as it's related to fundamentals?
• 16:02
  Ed Usset: Well, South America is going well, seems to be doing well. And and I know it's very early in the season, but boy, we'd look we need a supply disruption to get things going here. And it's not happening down there yet. I do like the news. Get we've two months in a row now we've had positive reports out of NOPA on the domestic crush exceeding expectations by 10 to 20,000,000 bushels, each of the last two months.
• 16:39
  And I like seeing that. I wanna see that, trend continue through the year. It won't make up for a bad export year, but it gets us going in the right direction.
• 16:50
  Todd Gleason: Alright. Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you again in another month.
• 16:54
  Ed Usset: Okay, Todd. Take care.
• 16:56
  Todd Gleason: You too. And as it is an agricultural economist with University of Minnesota Extension joined us on this Giving Tuesday edition of the closing market report. Speaking of which, visit our website, willag.org. You can buy your tickets for the farm assets conference there. The Illinois Farm Economic Summits, they're all coming up in mid December, and you can make a gift to Illinois public media.
• 17:17
  It is Giving Tuesday. Might be a great thing to do. Do it right now. You can just hit the donate button at the top of the page or you can go directly to willgive.org if you prefer, and thank you. December.
• 17:48
  I spoke with Jennifer Tyreme. She's the executive director at the Illinois Pork Producers Association.
• 17:55
  Jennifer Tyree: So we're taking on a new spin for some grassroots opportunities with our producers. We're gonna host some regional swine meetings. We're gonna do them on December 16. We're gonna basically take a roadshow. The morning, we're gonna start at 10:00 in the morning at Morton, and we're gonna have a couple hours of discussion, updates on some of the respiratory and health issues with doctor Jim Lowe from U of I, talking about some hog market outlooks and a lender's perspective on what we expect to see in the futures market for our producers.
• 18:28
  That's gonna be, in Morton. And then the second one, the same type of topics in for dinner that evening at 06:00, we're gonna be going down to Teutopolis. And you can register online on ilpork.com, and it's open to any pork producer, anyone interested in the pork industry, allied, or just an employee, we'd love to have you come.
• 18:48
  Todd Gleason: Again, that's Jennifer Tyrese. She's the executive director for the Illinois Pork Producers Association. You may find more information about the upcoming December swine meetings at ilpork.com. Let's check-in on the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Don Day is here with Day Weather.
• 19:11
  He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don. Thanks for being with us. Thanks for sending the cold air our way later this week. Well, I don't know whether that's actually coming for you from you, but we're gonna blame the weather people anyway.
• 19:23
  Really cold, here in the Midwest across a lot of The United States. Can you tell me about these conditions?
• 19:29
  Don Day: Yeah. Certainly, a rude awakening as we hit the end of the month and into now the new month with, well below average temperatures across, really, most of the Central Eastern United States and the Great Lakes region. It's gonna be a little sticky. There's another sour of very cold air that's gonna come in here, between, well, where we are now and into Friday before we do see some moderation in temperatures. But as we go through probably, let's say, Saturday, expect much below average temperatures.
• 20:02
  There's gonna be more lake effect snows. Now we're not seeing snows of the magnitude that we saw over Thanksgiving, but from the Northern Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, and a lot of the East And Northeast United States, it's gonna be very wintery. Now there's going to be next week a push of warmer air coming west to east across the country that will moderate things. Now we think this moderation may take a while, maybe not until the middle of next week, but a lot of the lower 48 next week, west to east, we'll see some moderation in this cold. I don't I don't really wanna call it a thaw, but it is gonna bring some moderation as the weather pattern is gonna kinda catch its breath.
• 20:48
  Then we see another situation developing in the high latitudes that's gonna gather up very cold air again. And as we go into the weekend of the thirteenth, fourteenth, and between then and Christmas, we're likely gonna see wintry weather come right back out of Canada across a lot of The US again.
• 21:09
  Todd Gleason: All part of the stratospheric warming we were talking about a couple of weeks ago.
• 21:14
  Don Day: Yeah. In fact, this is really quite amazing. Not only did we have one of the earliest stratospheric warming events in November that we've seen in a long time, we have another one that's gonna be developing within the next ten days. Now the thing to remember about these stratospheric warming events is that when they happen and when they develop, it's not an instantaneous change in the weather. It tends to come a little bit later on.
• 21:39
  So we're feeling in the effects of the first one. The second one forming, that's why I mentioned as we get into the weekend after this one up through Christmas and the New Year's is when we'll feel the impacts of stratospheric warming event number two. And the second event is gonna be more centered over Siberia, North Slope Of Alaska in a different location than the one that we just had which was more over Hudson Bay. So this is gonna get the Pacific involved into this and that means we could see what we call a wave train of winter storms west east across the country for the middle to the end of the month.
• 22:17
  Todd Gleason: Oh, great. Thank you. I appreciate that. Very active weather forecast here in the Northern Hemisphere then. How about in the Southern Hemisphere?
• 22:25
  Don Day: Well, not nearly as exciting as they're going to change their seasons there. It's been a little bit colder in Argentina, a little bit warmer in Brazil. We're gonna see that trend continue. Precipitation, is gonna be pretty close to average.
• 22:39
  Todd Gleason: Alright. Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
• 22:42
  Don Day: Thank you.
• 22:42
  Todd Gleason: That's Donde. He's with Day Weather out of Cheyenne, Wyoming. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Tuesday afternoon. Tomorrow, I'll be in Peoria at the farm show. I'll make a presentation at 9AM.
• 22:53
  I hope to see you there. I hope you also will visit our website at willag.org where you can buy your tickets for the farm assets conference, and you can hit the donate button or just go to willgive.org for giving Tuesday. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson.