Latest / Pod Save America / Artificial Intelligence, Actual Idiots

Transcript

Artificial Intelligence, Actual Idiots · Pod Save America

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe Home Security. Back to school
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: just turned your house from full to empty for seven
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: hours a day. That's a pattern anyone can spot. SimpliSafe's
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: AI cameras and live agents are watching your perimeter while
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: you're out, not waiting for an alarm to go off inside.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Unlike traditional security systems that only alert you after a
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: break-in is already underway, SimpliSafe is designed to help stop
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: intruders before they get inside. Smart AI-powered outdoor cameras detect
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: suspicious activity at the perimeter and alert live US-based agents
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: to step in. SimpliSafe's agents assess the threat, intervene through
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the outdoor camera to scare off trespassers, and call for
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: 911 dispatch. Our CEO installed SimpliSafe herself. She got it recently,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: and she said it was quick. The system was up
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: and running in no time. The app's super easy to use.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: All the components have worked smoothly since day one, and
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: she's really happy with it.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: She loved the heated doorknobs and then the ornaments on
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: the floor.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Oh, and you know what she was talking about? The
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: paint can that just kind of comes down the stairs
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: was like really helpful.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: And then the Michael Jordan cut out on the train.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: That was just fun.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: That's just a hit.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: That's just fun. Right now, you can get 50% off
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: any new SimpliSafe system. Go to simplisafe.com slash cricket. That's simplisafe.com
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: slash cricket for 50% off. And when you order, please
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: write in Podsafe America in the How Did You Hear
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: About Us survey to let them know we sent you.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Don't forget, there's no safe like SimpliSafe. Welcome to Pod
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: I'm Jon Lemmon.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: I'm Tommy Vitor.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're going to talk about the AI
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: overlords who are begging for regulation that could stave off
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: the apocalypse forever. and the president who's saying, no way,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I love the apocalypse. We'll talk about what Congress could
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: do about our looming AI crisis, why it's bringing Bernie
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Sanders and Steve Bannon together, and how the issue will
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: shape 2028. We've also got some pretty serious corrupt dates
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: for you, including the Russia, Russia, Russian oligarch who bankrolled
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Don Jr. 's wedding. Russia's back.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: It's so annoying that it had to be a Russian oligarch.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: I don't want to be back in P-tape land in 2017.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: But how.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: This story is insane. Covfefe.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: It's a Covfefe time.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: It's a Covfefe story. There are also some Republican candidates
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: in Texas who are somehow even worse than Ken Paxton
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: that we'll talk about. Then I sat down with the
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: bulwark Sarah Longwell to talk about what she's hearing in
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: her focus groups about AI, Kamala Harris, and lots more.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: She's also got a great new book out. But first, Levitt,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: speaking of books, I think you had an event that
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: you wanted to mention. At least that's what it says here.
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: On Thursday, I am talking to our very own Alex
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: Wagner about her book, The Steel, at the Writers Guild
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: Theater here in L.A. The Steel is about Ronald Reagan's
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: efforts to pack the federal courts with conservative judges. And
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: it worked. And it's a fascinating story and precursor to
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: where we're at now. And also, we'll talk about everything.
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: what's happening in politics. I'm excited to talk to Alex.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: It's going to be fun.
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: So it's Thursday, 7.30 at the Writers Guild Theater. You
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: go to Writers Block Presents if you want to come.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Let's get to the news. This was the weekend where
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: the leaders of companies building what nearly everyone agrees is
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the most powerful technology in history said that it's time
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: to slow it down because humans could lose control of
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: AI with catastrophic consequences. And the president, along with his
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: rich tech buddies and the MAGA establishment responded by saying, no,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: thank you, full speed ahead. On Saturday, Anthropic CEO Dario
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Amadei published an essay calling for a global slowdown in
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: AI development based on the argument that AI models are
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: becoming so advanced that AI itself is increasingly being used
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: to build the next generation of AI, a process that
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: could move faster than humans' ability to understand or control AI.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: as evidenced by the recent incident involving OpenAI, where AI
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: agents launched cyber attacks they hadn't been instructed to carry out,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: and then tried to cover up their tracks so human
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: observers wouldn't find out. Amadei goes on to say we
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: could be six to 12 months away from a swarm
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: of AI agents capable of taking over the entire internet.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: And he proposes giving outside independent evaluators' access inside AI companies,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: including his, common safety standards for big AI companies, and
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: a political effort to reach some kind of an international agreement,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: especially with China. OpenAI's Sam Altman and XAI's Elon Musk
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: then expressed support for Amadei. Sounds pretty good, right? Wrong.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Monday morning, Trump described the push for AI guardrails as a, quote,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: sick conspiracy that would help China. and said that the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: only guardrail we need is a high IQ president, which,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: if this clip of Trump on Air Force One Sunday
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: night is any indication, we clearly have.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: I just wanted to make sure everyone's okay with the music, right?
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: We loved it, Mr.
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: President.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: Are you okay?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Have you heard directly from any of these AI tech leaders?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And you seem to downplay some of the.
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: Concerns that we've heard.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: No, I'm not downplaying, but it's going to be more
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: good than bad, but by a lot.
• 5:27
  Speaker 6: And I've said it from the beginning.
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: Whoever wins AI, and we're leading by a lot, whoever
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: wins AI wins.
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: Have you ever used it yourself?
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: How do you use AI?
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: I would say, you know, for the most part, you
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: can use AI for a lot of things.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: What do you use it for?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Well, I use it to create images of me as Jesus,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: me in front of mission accomplished banners, all kinds of stuff.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: What did you guys make of the weekend's developments and
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: How significant do you think it is that Amadei, Altman, Musk,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: who pretty much hate each other, seem to agree on
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the need for some kind of a slowdown? Tommy?
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: I think it's interesting that they all paid lip service
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: to the idea of a slowdown, but I think the
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: significance is TBD. I mean, Dario Amadei, he laid out
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: a three-point plan, and his response on Twitter, Sam Altman
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: basically said, yeah, I'm with you on step one, which
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: is these embedded evaluators inside the companies who have employee-like
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: access and can verify that safety is practices are being
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: followed and they can report problems. But the second and
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: third points of Dario Amadei's plan require government level coordination
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: and diplomacy. And even the easier of the two, which
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: is like coordination among democracies, is basically just more export
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: controls on advanced chips so they don't get in the
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: hands of the Chinese. And Trump has been weakening those
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: export controls, not strengthening them. And then, as you said,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Trump came out and explicitly said this week that he
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: didn't want the company's to slow down. It was kind
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: of a weird thing. He didn't need to say it
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: at all. But it does seem now we seem to know.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: There was a moment later today that suggests that the
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: CEO of NVIDIA got in his head with this point
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: because NVIDIA just wants to sell as many chips to
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: as many people, right? So Jensen Wang makes the most money.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: So I think the most meaningful thing that these CEOs
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: could do, especially Elon Musk, would be to convince Donald
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: Trump that regulation is necessary and to do something about it.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: But we also know that Mark Zuckerberg has been calling
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: Trump to say, hey, pump the brakes on a regulatory
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: body for AI. And so I think the bigger problem
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: with Dario Amadei's post is that it doesn't really pace
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: the future like the title suggests. It's not halting advanced training.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: It is like slowing it down a bit, putting in
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: these embedded evaluators who the companies, by the way, are
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: not required to listen to if they sound the alarm.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: You can just blow them off. So it does feel
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: like the net effect is we're still proceeding ahead pretty quickly,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: though I'm glad to see them Speaking out, at least.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, better than not speaking.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Better than not.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Love it. What do you think?
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: So I thought the post was pretty thoughtful. I'm sure
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: there's experts that would tear it apart in ways I couldn't.
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: And we'll get to some of the critiques from some
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: of the people that don't agree with this. But what
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: was interesting to me is I think there have been
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: these sort of two parallel debates about A.I., One about
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: the ways in which the technology is dangerous and then
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: one about why we need to beat China.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: And I think like especially on social media where a
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: lot of these debates are playing out, even amongst some
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: of the players, there's this way in which the oh,
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: but we have to be China has almost become a joke.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: It's like, oh, of course, we need to make a
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: technology that could kill all life on Earth. Otherwise, China
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: will get there first. Right. And I just appreciated the
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: way it was trying to reconcile those two things and
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: say that there is a lead that U.S. companies have.
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: It is actually important to maintain that lead. Here is
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: a strategy in which we can slow the pace of
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: progress on these frontier models in ways that address or
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: at least alleviate some safety concerns while still recognizing the
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: risk China poses and figuring out a plan to maintain
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: our lead against China.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: I also think for... like most people who are not
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: following this debate closely, the reason they're not following it
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: closely is because it's kind of hard for people to understand. Very. Like,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: how can my chatbot suddenly... Kill my kids. end humanity?
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: And, you know, I was.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I've been reading up on this a lot over the
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: last couple weeks, and I think what I didn't quite
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: realize until late last month maybe is the concern now is...
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: That AI is already doing or will do an increasing
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: share of AI research and development, right? So OpenAI explicitly
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: says it is pursuing an automated AI researcher with a
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: target of like March of 2028. And the idea for
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: an automated AI researcher is, so right now you see like, oh,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: ChatGPT-5 comes out and then ChatGPT-6 comes out and another version.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: And each of those new versions are being built by humans, right?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: And they're perfecting them and they're making them better. But
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: they're quickly realizing that AI is becoming so good that
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: instead of the human's developing the next iteration of ChatGPT,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: AI can do it themselves, right? So now you have
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: AIs developing the next generation of AIs that are more advanced,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: and humans then are going to have a harder time
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: supervising those improvements. So a human is asked to authorize
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: a new AI system, right? Oh, ChatGPT 9 is out, right?
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: But ChatGPT 8 built it. So AI designed the system,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: ran the safety tests, evaluated the tests, wrote the report
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: about it. And the human can still say no, but
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: how do you know whether the report is accurate? How
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: do you know whether the AI is covering its tracks?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: And then the concern is that the resulting systems just
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: fully escape human control.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: And even the best researchers in AI barely understand how
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: the things they've created work. They don't really know what's
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: going on inside there today.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: And there's all this debate about, you know, P-Doom, which means, like,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: when could humans go extinct? And is it 10 years?
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: How convinced are you that humans being extinct is your P-Doom?
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Because in 99, you think we're dead. We're all going
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: to die.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: But here's the thing. Like, you don't have to believe
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: a specific forecast about human extinction or even that, like,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: every computer on Earth will be taken over to still
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: worry about catastrophic damage that could be caused by powerful
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: computer systems that we can't control. especially in a world
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: where these computer systems are embedded in the financial system,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: the military, healthcare, transportation. Like, it doesn't take a lot
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: to imagine, not even like the whole world, you know,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: sort of blowing up from nuclear war to start realizing that, like,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: you got a bunch of drones around, you got the
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: electric grid in different places, you got an outage, you
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: got hospitals getting shut down. Like, there's a lot of
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: damage that could happen before you even get to human extinctions.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: Right. You already, I mean, we've already been through the
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: first round of this, right? That they have AI models
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: that are deceptive, escaped, hacked other systems, uh, tried to
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: cover their tracks, right? Like they are doing things that, uh, uh,
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: that are, they are, they are surprising and they are
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: surprising the people that made them and release them that
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: is already happening. And they're only getting more powerful. And
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: I do think there's a, like, whether it is the, the,
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: The fact that the AI is responsible for training the
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: next AI combines, I think, two ways in which this
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: creates novel problems. Obviously, there's the one you talked about,
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: which is just we won't be in control. We won't
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: understand what it's doing, and it will escape. The other
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: is just that what we're talking about is a technology
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: that has accelerating acceleration. What that means is normal ways
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: in which you could retreat to a confident position, such
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: as yes, we are going head to head with China.
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: And if we have a set of guardrails and China
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: breaks them, well, we will trust that the ingenuity and
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: sort of democratic spirit will mean that we'll catch up.
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: Or if one company doesn't follow a set of voluntary rules,
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: but another does, but they can hire better engineers and
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: catch up, right? All of those sort of kind of
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: natural ways in which competition can overcome inequities in enforcement,
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: in rules, right, go out the window when what we're
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: talking about is the possibility of some kind of accelerating
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: acceleration of progress in which one company, one country, one
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: organization leaps, leapfrogs ahead, and it doesn't matter what anyone
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: else does behind them, which I think is informing all
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: of this, including what Amadai published.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Well, the whole China thing, too, is it's completely dependent
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: on what we're racing towards. Even with nuclear weapons, the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: idea is, We get a bunch of nuclear weapons and
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: then they get a bunch of nuclear weapons and there's
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: mutually assured destruction because both countries control the nuclear weapons.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: What we're talking about here is not like we get
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: a super powerful AI that we control and China gets
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: a powerful super AI that they control. That would be
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: one thing. And we are racing to that as well.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: But like the challenge here. is that we're both racing
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: towards an AI that goes beyond human control, that we
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: lose control of. That means the Chinese will lose control
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: of it, too. So, like, no one wants that AI.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sort of a flaw in the anti-Doomer argument
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: that you hear from the David Sachses of the world.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: It's like, you're ridiculous if you think that they're going
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: to create these, like, killer AIs and it's going to
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: take out all of humanity, but we must defeat China
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: on the road to killer AI. Now, I guess their
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: argument would be that the Chinese could use it to
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: make conventional weapons or a bio-threat or something, but Um,
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: there's just a lot of flaws in their arguments that
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: we can get to.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: So, yeah. So the argument made by Trump, I say
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: that Trump loosely because let's be honest, he doesn't know
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: what he's talking about. Um, but by Trump's former AI czar,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: David Sachs, uh, who was back hosting the all in
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: pod and all of his all in, uh, podcast co-hosts
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: feel the same way, uh, other tech investors and even
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: some folks on the left, especially like the antitrust left, um,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: is that all these warnings are, um, some kind of
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: either PSYOP or hoax by Anthropic and OpenAI or a
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: ploy to get regulations that are favorable to their companies
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: while crushing smaller competitors that wouldn't be able to afford
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: to comply with the new regulatory regime. How does that
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: argument sit with you guys?
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: There's just so many different flaws with this argument. I mean,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: first of all, what smaller competitors are we talking about
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: existing right now without regulation? I mean, the Right now,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: the moat for an AI startup that you have to
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: leap over is– it's a rival open AI or anthropic.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: It's pulling together tens of billions of dollars to buy
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: a lot of chips and to buy a lot of
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: energy and to hire all the best staff. The issue
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: is money and not regulation. Also, like the California law
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: that was proposed that all these guys were so worried
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: about said to be regulated as a frontier model, you
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: had to hit a threshold of an annual gross revenues
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: exceeding $ 500 million.
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: That's not going to hit a lot of startups. And
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: so that's like was written to target like five companies.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: And then they've decided that the Jacob Coxon tweet is
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: part of this PSYOP. Well, they argue that he's both
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: like a low-level nobody who only worked at Anthropic for
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: six weeks. So why should we care what he thinks?
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: But also that this was this well-coordinated hit with all
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: this backing from Anthropic and Doomer groups. But why would
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: they choose that guy of all people? Like why would
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: the Doomers choose the random kid when the CEOs in
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: this industry are have been saying the same stuff for years.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: And so these guys, like they dismiss people calling for
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: AI safety as like Luddites and Doomers, but then they
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: sound just as hyperbolic when they talk about what AI
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: regulation could mean for our future. Like one of the
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: all-in guys literally said it would be like us being
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: stranded on a lost civilization in the Amazon rainforest or
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: something like that. And then- Sounds awesome, honestly. Another guy
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: was like, yeah, we'll have to live under a 1984
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: style authoritarian state. Like they have a Doomer view of
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: what regulation would be. And they also are very worried
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: about the banning of open weight AI models, which we
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: can get into that if you want. But I think
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: there's some truth to the argument that people that work
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: in the AI industry tend to have read the same
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: science fiction. They share the same assumptions about the power
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: and promise of the industry. And maybe they're spinning each
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: other up and they're overreacting. But I think what's so
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: annoying about that kind of pushback is the biggest names
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: in AI are the reason all of us normies are
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: kind of freaked out. Like Elon Musk said in 2014-
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: We need to be super careful with AI, potentially more
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: dangerous than nukes, right? Like that's why people are worried.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Well, and also it's like you don't need to believe
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: these tech CEOs. You don't need to believe Dario or
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Sam or Elon Musk or take their word for it.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Like that's why we have government. That's the whole idea
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: is that like, You can believe that the companies may
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: be self-interested here. You can believe that they might try
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: to design regulatory schemes that help them, that benefit them
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: at the expense of other companies. You can think that
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: maybe they've just read too much science fiction. But that's
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: why you should want independent oversight, an independent regulator to
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: make sure that everything is safe. I don't understand.
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: Let's just take their argument seriously. I think you should
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: take the argument seriously that there is a risk of capture.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: by the largest players. But part of that, it is
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: the nature of safety of a safety regulation, right? Like
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: there is a reason, a good reason it is hard
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: to start a car company. We demand that if you
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: make a car, it is safe and you have to
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: pass a certain number of rules.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: It would be a more.
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: Dynamic and interesting car market if anybody could just sell
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: a car. And then if it turned out to not
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: be safe, you could sue. And there were all kinds
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: of liability ways in which safety was enforced. And we'd
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: have more interesting cars, but there would be a better
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: chance of you dying while your skin melts while you're
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: pounding against the inside of a window, right? We make
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: certain compromises to have a safe society. And over and
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: over again, let's just treat this like.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: A normal technology.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: We regret when we do safety second, right? Forever chemicals
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: or the harms of social media or x-rays or what
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: have you. Time and again, when we assume something is safe,
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: even though it is very powerful, we We come to
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: regret the decision to not take it more seriously. And fundamentally,
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: I do think these guys are all trying to have
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: it both ways. Is it a powerful technology? If it is,
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: then it's dangerous. If it's not dangerous, then it's not powerful.
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: We all agree that it is powerful and therefore it
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: is dangerous. And so, yeah, like long-term, any rules would
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: have to be written with an understanding that this is
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: like a dynamic and rapidly evolving field, that there would
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: be certain, you know, first mover advantages. If there's a
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: lot of rules around alignment, that would be easier for
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: bigger companies to comply with. But it's also beside the
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: point because okay, fine. Like take those things into advisement
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: over the longterm, the longterm being anything other than the
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: next few weeks. Right now, these companies are all saying, Hey,
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: this threshold that we've been warning about that there's not new, right.
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: That we've been warning about from the beginning, right. That
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: from the letters from 2023, from science fiction, from all
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: of these people that have been saying for years, we
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: think it's here. We think we're on the threshold of
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: this moment. We have to take some steps now. Now
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: they turn around and say like, like maybe it's Saks
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: or one of the other guys, turns around and say, well,
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: if you don't want to make super intelligence, just don't
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: make super intelligence.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: And, and fine. Like, oh, okay.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: But there's not one company doing this, right? If it
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: like the fact that there is, there are two leaders, right?
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: Open AI and anthropic, right? With others like Gemini kind
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: of right behind other companies and open whatever other companies
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: behind them. The fact that there is more than one
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: is enough to make sense of the plea to have
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: some sort of cooperation and agreement. Uh, and to dismiss
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: that as like purely cynical and motivation, I just think is,
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: It's completely unjustified.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Pate of America is brought to you by Bowie. Electrolyte
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: drinks are all the rage these days, but most of
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: them are just natural flavors and stevia mixed with table salt.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Is that true? I didn't know that.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Bowie is different.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Bowie is unflavored liquid electrolytes and 87 trace minerals you
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: can add to any drink, even coffee. They support energy,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: cognitive function, clarity, and cellular hydration. with the drinks you're
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: already drinking. Buoy has no sugar, sweeteners, flavors, or artificial ingredients.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: It's ocean-harvested sodium plus 87 ionic trace minerals. It has
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: more electrolytes than 13 sports drinks in each two-ounce bottle.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: You ever harvested sodium from the ocean?
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: All the time. Plus, it's third-party tested for pathogens, microplastics,
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: heavy metals, and impurities. Just add one squeeze in whatever
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: you're already drinking to make your water, coffee, or matcha
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: more hydrating. And according to a university-led clinical trial published
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: by the journal Nutrients, buoy electrolytes are clinically proven to
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: hydrate 64% more than water alone and to hydrate 49%
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: more than a leading electrolyte. We have some buoy in
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: our office. We sure do. I was using it the
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: other day. They got ones for the rescue days where
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: you need a little extra help for a variety of reasons.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: There's ones for digestion. There's ones for immunity. There's ones
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: for basic energy. You squeeze it in your water and
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: you're good to go. If you want to make your
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: favorite drinks more hydrating, just head to justaddbuoy.com slash crooked.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: Use code crooked to get 31% off and try Buoy
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: risk-free for 30 days. Get 31% off liquid electrolyte discovery
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: set that includes additional drops for gut health, brain health, energy, immunity,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: and more. Justaddbuoy.com slash crooked. Code crooked. And if you
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: or someone you know is living with chronic illness, Buoy
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: helps offset your healthcare costs with their chronic illness lifetime
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: support program. It takes two minutes to apply.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. We're lucky to live
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: in a time when seeking help for mental health struggles
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: is no longer stigmatized, but it's still much more difficult
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: to obtain than it should be. BetterHelp makes it easy
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: to get started, answer a few questions, get matched with
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: a therapist based on your needs, and switch therapists at
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: any time if it's not the right fit. BetterHelp therapists
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: have at least three years and 1,000 hours of hands-on experience.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: They also hold all required education, training, and certifications across
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: a range of mental health specialties. Better is a feeling
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: defined by you. And for BetterHelp, it's a BetterHelp therapist
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: who really gets you. It's a focus on global emotional
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: well-being with thousands of therapists and millions of members in
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: over 100 countries. It's progress. But also, therapy is great.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: And everyone should try it. And you might not think
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: you need it. But you probably do because it just
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: helps to talk with someone.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: Better than the olden days when it was just, you know, Tumblr, whiskey, and,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: you know, hiding in the attic.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com.psa. That's betterhelp.com.psa.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: There's also this false choice they put out where it's
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: like either OpenAI and Anthropic get to write whichever regulations
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: they want that would benefit their companies or there's no regulation.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: You guys are in charge, David Sachs. You were the
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: AI czar. Write a good regulation.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Again, it's like everyone is just pretending. that government doesn't
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: exist and has never existed for purposes like this. It's
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: like we don't do a thing where we all go
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, post things, and then everyone's like, well, we
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: must believe the CEO that said that they were going
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: to do this voluntary step or not believe them, and
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: we should parse their motives and figure out whether we
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: can believe them or not or what their motivations are. No,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: that's why we have laws. That's why we have regulations.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: And the companies are saying, and the other response you
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: hear from the pro-industry types are like, Why don't you
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: just coordinate and put in place safety procedures today? And
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: the companies will say, well, we're worried we could get
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: sued for antitrust collusion. OK, well, then have the Department
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: of Justice release a letter. It's called an interest letter
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: and stipulate that you're not going to punish AI companies
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: for coordination under safety. Like give them some sort of
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: legal framework. I mean, I'd love for Congress to do it,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: but they probably can't get their shit together to do anything. But, like,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: DOJ could act now. Like, let's just move a little
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: quicker here, guys.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, to your point earlier, tell me about the
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: open weight, open source. So, the idea there is that
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: it is a cheaper way for other people to, like,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: use AI on their own without going to one of
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: these big companies or potentially developing their own company or
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: their own AI model or whatever. The all-in guys, David Sachs,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: who was, again, the AI czar for Donald Trump, the
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: reason they all love that is, like, that's where a
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: ton of the money is yet to be made if
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: you're not invested in the anthropic and open AI. And
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: so they are so excited about this AI boom that
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: involves all these open-source, open-weight models, and they also have
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: this belief that, like, anything bad can be countered by
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: someone else starting something good, right? And, again, it is
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: this belief that, like, We don't need regulations or experts
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: or governments or independent regulators or any of that, that
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: the free market will, you know, you'll get some bad,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: but you'll get some good too. And it all just
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: cancel each other out. And that's the way things work.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Real NRA approach.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's like, you know, on their latest pod,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: they're like. you know, these doomers, they always worry about everything.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: I'll give you some other times we've heard similar things.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Al Gore published a movie called Inconvenient Truth. And he
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: used these forecasts that is, as of now, been disproven.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: A guy named Fauci, you guys remember him? He told
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: us all that COVID would kill us all. And as
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: a result, we had to lock down the entire world. Like, what?
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Those two examples are things that, things that happened. Things
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: that did, that.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: COVID killed a lot of people. What are you talking about?
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: There's such a, it's like such a, there's, It's so strange.
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: The ways in which they want it to be a
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: normal technology and then the ways in which they implicitly
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: or explicitly talk about how extraordinary it is. What would
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: we be doing if there were these risks that AI
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: poses and we weren't worried about recursive development and a
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: sudden spike? I would say that the fact that there
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: are potentially uh, uh, rogue swarms of agents that able
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: to take over the internet is reason enough to have
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: some sort of important questions raised about what we're going
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: to do to regulate this, right? The fact that these
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: could be used to empower drones and that technology could,
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: could be bought combined with facial recognition and, and whatever
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: else reason enough.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: But what, like, it's like, you don't have to be
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: like sort of, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, kind of
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: performatively obtuse, right? We're all aware of the possibility of acceleration.
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: We're all aware of the fact that this isn't going
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: to be like a normal market, that a sudden surge
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: of development could be something that escapes out of Pandora's box.
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: And we will have wished we had done more, especially
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: because one of the important parts about why we need
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: to be doing this now is a lot of this
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: technology does, as Tommy said, require vast amounts of money.
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: It does require huge investments that you can't really hide.
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: You can't hide the amount of investment and resources required
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: to build these kinds of models. That won't always be true.
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: And by the way, the assumption that these models will
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: require increasing computing power is not necessarily true. One aspect
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: of the growth of this technology and the self-improvement of
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: this technology could be the capacity for it to do
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: increasingly complex and capable things with less and less resources, right?
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: What happens then? What happens then when we don't have
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: the capacity anymore to know who is building what, who
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: is able to do advanced research into bioweapons and and
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: other technologies, right? Like there will be a threshold at
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: which we will lose the ability to regulate this, even
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: if it is long before you get to some super intelligence.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: On China, China's foreign ministry released a statement saying, quote,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: fear-mongering confrontation and vicious competition will only disrupt the process
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: of global AI governance, which serves no one's interest. So
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on September 24th.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: And I think they may be scheduled to talk about
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: this before then.
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: I think Besson has a meeting with his counterpart before.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Great, great. Why wouldn't Trump try to make some kind
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: of a deal with China on at least the catastrophic
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: risks of AI?
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's an open question whether he
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: wants to deal with them. I suspect that Trump is
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: going to go into this meeting feeling like some people
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: are telling me AI is going to kill us all
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: and then others tell me it's going to lead to
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: a work for a utopia. Who the hell knows? But
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: what I do know is that the stock market is
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: entirely propped up by the AI industry and there's a
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: giant AI bubble. And then if we pump the brakes,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: if we pump the brakes even a little bit, It
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: could lead to a stock market crash and that will
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: make all of my rich donor friends very unhappy and
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: then they will call me and tell me that they're
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: mad when they see me DJing on the patio at Mar-a-Lago.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: And so Trump has also told.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Us- This is exactly how he sees it.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: That is exactly right. I think so. I mean, like,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: and also he's told us over and over again that
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: he wants an economic deal with China that he can
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: sell as a win and a validation of the tariff policy,
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: as dumb as it was. And so he knows you
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: got to kind of pick and choose with the Chinese. Now,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: you would think there would be an easy middle ground
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: where they announce some agreement to not use AI to
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: make bioweapons or do novel virus research. But after COVID-19,
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: That's a little more complicated than it should be. There's
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: not a lot of trust there. You got to try
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: to imagine Trump selling to MAGA that we cut a
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: deal with the Chinese where they're not going to, you know,
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: use AI to create a virus after they're all convinced
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: now that COVID was created in a Chinese lab and
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: that there was a lab leak. And so like it's
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: also for the Chinese perspective, the U.S. is very openly
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: and publicly trying to hold them back. So they don't
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: trust us either. And it's only a matter of time
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: until the Chinese have the indigenous chip capacity to compete
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: with us and then negotiate maybe on better ground. So
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: maybe there's like a little win, like regular, like committing
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: to a dialogue going forward every few months or creating
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: a hotline to like diffuse a crisis or a mistake.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: But I just, I don't have a lot of hope
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: that there's commitment from either leader.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong. I don't either. And the one
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: thing that bugs me is everyone being like, well, China's
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: never going to agree to anything and they don't care.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: And I was like, maybe, but like, we can try,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: can we try? Have we, have we tried to negotiate
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: with geopolitical rivals over existential threats before?
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we have the cold war with the Russians.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: It's like, like you can still, you can still try.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Maybe we should sit down and have a conversation and
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: see where it leads. And if it doesn't lead anywhere,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: then yeah, we're fucked. But like, might as well try
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: to do that. Right.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: Even a, even a conversation that is about building trust
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: on this, that we sincerely take the threat seriously. And yeah,
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: are open to kind of some sort of agreement in
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: the future that is predicated on the country still competing
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: on AI, right, while having certain guardrails. I mean, I
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: do think like there are real kind of challenges, right?
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: You say like, oh, we should have a rule that
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: says we won't make a new and advanced bioweapon. I mean,
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: OpenAI or Anthropic just put out a report about all
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: the different ways they have been finding people using this
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: technology sort of on their own to do research into bioweapons, right?
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: And it is very difficult at times. I think it
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: is difficult to tell the difference between benign research into
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: benign medical research and more dangerous medical research. These things
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: can often look alike, right? Like there's a lot of
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: really thorny parts about what it means to use this
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: technology and how to stop certain things, right? Like how
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: to draw these lines. I don't think any of it
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: is easy.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: So The Weeknd's AI drama seemed to finally wake up Congress,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: kind of. Wouldn't get your hopes up just yet, though.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Here's a Politico headline on what the Speaker of the
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: House thinks, quote, tech companies must be primarily responsible for
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: AI safety, Mike Johnson says.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Nice. That went well last time.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: Cool. Johnson says he wants to bring together Trump, congressional leaders,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: and the AI companies before moving any kind of legislation.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: Democrats are pushing for more immediate action. Schumer called for
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: a classified briefing for every senator. Jeffrey says House Democrats
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: will discuss AI Tuesday. Some House Democrats are calling on
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Johnson to delay recess until they pass safeguards. I believe
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Jeffries is one of them. Brian Schatz said that Congress
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: should be on an emergency footing about this. But the
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: calendar is tight, of course. This is the House's last
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: scheduled week before the election. And of course, any agreement
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: also has to now contend with Trump saying that existing
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: rules are sufficient and just having a high IQ president
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: is good enough. It seems like realistically nothing's going to
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: become law before the election, but what do you guys think?
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: First of all, I just, there is also a dog
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: that's not barking, right? Which is, and we'll get to
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: sort of what Asif said and what Vance is saying,
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: but you have Amidai saying, hey, we think there should
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: be these regulators inside the company. I talked to Ted Lieu.
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: He has this kill switch bill.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: It's bipartisan.
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: There's a number of bipartisan bills, right? And he has
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: the kill switch bill. And I talked to him at
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: the time, like it seemed to me, like if we
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: have EPA- if we have regulators on boats to make
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: sure they don't harvest endangered fish, which obviously is a
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: deep threat, it seems like we could have regulators inside
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: of these companies, especially with things moving so fast. And
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: he was more focused on this idea of like, oh, well,
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: whether we get there or not, we need this thing
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: like a kill switch, right? But right now it is
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: not clear that they do have the authority to force companies, say,
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: to have regulators inside.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Now we have seen.
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: Trump decide that the law lets him do whatever he wants.
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: But a normal presidency at this point would be saying,
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: here are the authorities I have. Here's a list of
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: things I think Congress should pass right now to kind
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: of strengthen my.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Ability to do this quickly.
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: Like, regardless of what Congress passes, this is such a
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: fast and dynamic situation that there is no law that
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: Congress could pass that could overcome the challenge of having
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: Donald Trump as president. right now. I'd be nervous about
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: giving him any additional powers he won't use. And on
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: top of that, whatever the law says, you need a
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: vigorous oversight by an administration that is thoughtful and disciplined
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: and aggressive about keeping an eye on these things. And
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: we just don't have that.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: So assuming Congress acts like Congress, let's talk about how
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: the politics of this issue are shaping up as we
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: look beyond the midterms. Bernie Sanders, who's been one of
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: the earliest and strongest voices demanding that humans stay firmly
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: in control of AI, is doing an event Tuesday morning with,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: of all people, Steve Bannon. At a fundraising event last week,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama reportedly urged Hakeem Jeffries to put AI regulation
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: at the center of Democrats' agenda if they take the
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: House back. Potential 28 candidates like Ro Khanna and Pete
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Buttigieg have weighed in. And here's Jon Ossoff speaking in
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Georgia this weekend.
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: What fills us with dread is the crushing weakness of
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: our politics against the massive stakes of our times. Tech
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: titans dig bunkers while warning us the new intelligence they're
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: creating risks human extinction. A capable president would move swiftly
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: to secure and reassure the American people, rush inspectors into
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: frontier labs, fortify the nation against bioterrorism, demand legislation from Congress,
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: and lead the world toward an AI treaty. But President
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: Trump is compromised.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, on the Republican side, here's Peter Thiel acolyte J.D.
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: Vance.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Giving a version of the Trump-David Sachs response on Monday morning.
• 36:12
  Speaker 7: I have to say, just personally, I feel a little
• 36:14
  Speaker 7: bit weird about the fact that you have so many
• 36:18
  Speaker 7: frontier AI tech companies kind of coming to the government
• 36:21
  Speaker 7: and begging the government.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: To regulate them. It feels a little bit to me
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: like a bit of a Trojan horse.
• 36:26
  Speaker 7: So I think we just have to be careful about this.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: There's an all-in pod bestie right there.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: What is the horse?
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the horse is their ask for regulation.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: Right, but what's inside? What's in the fucking horse?
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Preventing other companies from.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: Because that would be regular. But this is about asking
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: the regulations to come into the company. No one's having
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: the Trojan horse would be open AI.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Look, the metaphor may be a little tortured, but who
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: do you think's more more where the voters are? John
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Ossoff or J.D. Vance?
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, what I like about what Ossoff is doing
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: there is he's just been relentlessly focused on Trump's corruption
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: as the motivation for everything. I think he's folded that
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: one in well. He also nails the hypocrisy of the
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: tech leaders who, you know, like the CEOs who created
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: social media and then wouldn't give their kids smartphones or,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: you know, Facebook accounts. You know, we're seeing the same
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: thing here.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: J.D.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Vance thinks it's weird that the Frontier Labs are concerned
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: about AI safety, a thing they've been talking about for years.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: He could pick up the phone and call Elon Musk
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: and ask him why he weighed in. I assume they're friends.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, just in terms of the public opinion, Blue
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Rose polling had some recent data that they released. 33%
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: of voters are optimistic about AI. 49% are pessimistic. Those
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: numbers move 12 points in the pessimism direction since June.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: 60% think the companies building data centers only care about profits.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: 72% think it would be appropriate for the U.S. government
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: to demand concessions before letting companies build more data centers.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: Very few people are convinced by this counter-argument about losing
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: the AI race to China. Republicans are more likely to
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: get banned for the data centers getting built than Democrats.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: But the challenge is that while the people, like the
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: voters are with the calls to regulate AI, the money
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: is with the industry. There are these astroturf groups like
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: Leading the Future that was propped up to basically advocate
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: for no regulation or no regulations they don't like. They
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: will destroy members of Congress who come out in favor
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: of regulations they don't like. And OpenAI pretends they're not
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: connected to Leading the Future, but OpenAI President Greg Brockman says,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: gave $ 25 million to the organization to seed it. It's
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: the main funder, yeah. Which he says it was in
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: his personal capacity. There's no association with the company. So
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: that's the fear, I think, for members of Congress on
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: both sides. They watch what the crypto industry did to
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: kill off its opponents in the last election, and they
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: know that the AI industry has got more money to
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: do it if they want.
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they dumped a bunch of money into New York 12, right,
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: where Alex Boris was an advocate for AI safety, and
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: he lost that race. They put a ton of money
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: in there. Uh, yeah, the, like there, there's no, I
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: do think like there's not a lot of, uh, not
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: a lot of equity right now in taking the China
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: threat seriously. I do think that like the other thing
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: Trump is hearing other than the fact that the stock
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: market is propped up by AI is that they sort
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: of universal agreement amongst these leaders that it would be
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: terrible for China to win the AI race. And I,
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: and I actually do take that seriously. I think that
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: is real. Uh, and so when, when when JD says
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: this thing of like, Oh, it's so strange. It's so confusing.
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: It's amazing the things he finds it impossible to understand, right?
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: Like there are multiple companies, right? Even if you say
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: the two leaders, uh, are ahead and might be trying
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: to cement their lead, that still would be a reason
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: for them to call for regulation to slow them down
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: and others. You think Google's history suggests that they're super
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: thrilled with being third or fourth. No, they want Gemini
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: to win. If open AI and, and, uh, uh, anthropic
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: slowed down, they'd try to catch up. That's what these
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: companies would do. So of course they would be calling
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: for regulation. There is a, there's a fucking game theory
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: problem here. Uh, like it's not, it's not hard to understand. He's,
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: he's choosing not to understand it.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: JD's stance on this is bewildering. Like I, I know
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: he has to sort of like tow the administration's line, but, um,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: he's been also trying to straddle the like MAGA establishment,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: America first, Tucker Carlson, you know, kind of split in
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: the party and him in 20, like that clip of
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: him circulating in 28 of him being like, it's a
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Trojan horse. Why would they, we got to be careful here.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: Like that's not, it's not where his base is going
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: to be.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: Nope.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Uh, it's not where the vast majority of Americans are
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: going to be, you know, look what the numbers you
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: just said. So it's a very, um, I think that's
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: got to come back to bite him in the ass
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: if we're all still alive by then. Um, On the
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: leading the future point that you made, Tommy, Matt Iglesias
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: wrote about this today. And he was saying like one
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: thing that all these employees can do is urge their founders,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: their leaders to, you know, stop supporting leading the future
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: or at least explicitly come out against it and, you know,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: threaten to resign if they don't get results. What do
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: you guys think about that? Yeah.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: Presumably, most of the employees of these companies don't think
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: there should be no regulation or just the status quo.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: They don't think the status quo is working. So yeah,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: talk to the president of your own company and say,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: please stop advocating for these terrible things. Talk to Chris Lehane,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: who worked in democratic politics for a very long time
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: and is apparently now leading the future organization. Why are
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: you doing that? All we want is common sense regulations.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Could we do some sort of coordinated slowdown on the
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: like super frontier model training while they do alignment and
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: safety work. I didn't realize until I was listening to
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: Greg Brockman, the president of OpenAI talk about it, was
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: that one of the reasons the hugging face hack occurred
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: is because the model that they were training in the
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: sandbox had not yet undergone alignment training, right? So like
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: maybe we should figure, change that sequencing. It sounds like
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: they're going to, but what other What other problems are
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: we not aware of? And so in the interim, you
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: can certainly use the AI models that already exist to
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: try to solve all the problems that they say they're
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: going to solve and cure cancer and everything. But can
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: we just coordinate on fucking biosafety so we're not creating
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: a new coronavirus that keeps us in our houses for
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: the next 10 years?
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: And I realize it's not quite as simple as this,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: but don't pull the trigger on the AI models that
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: just train fully training and developing the new AI models,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: just like before we get to that. Yeah, that's you.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: You'll hear it's called recursive self-improvement. But like before we
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: get to that point, like just just don't do that yet.
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: But like, here's the thing. Like, yes, except it's more complicated. Right.
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: Because they are using like using AI to develop AI
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: is increasingly sort of infused into everything that they are doing.
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: Like it's not. it's not so obviously separable. When does
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: the AI take over? When is the human in charge
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: of the AI, right? Like they are, you know, you
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: look at like the proof, right? They just rolled out
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: for one of these millennium math problems, right? It's a
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: prompt to a frontier model. That model empowers a group
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: of agents and those agents kind of do tasks across
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: a broad range of things and the model oversees them
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: and kind of creates new agents to oversee things other agents, right?
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: It's very complicated what it means to have humans in
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: charge as these things are being developed.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: But agent swarms, having a bunch of agents, is very
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: different than AI models creating new models.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Well, yes.
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know the technical difference between a swarm of
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: agents and just a group of agents doing different tasks.
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: Maybe it's because they can communicate, but they didn't realize
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: those agents were communicating with one another because they had
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: no idea what was going on.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: I agree with you.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: I'm just like, these things are very complicated. First of all, just,
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: it was only a month ago or a little more
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: than a month ago that over a thousand AI employees
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: wrote a letter imploring their companies to slow down, right?
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: Like there is a precedent for this, but even on
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: this question of alignment, right? Like oh, they didn't even
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: train these models on alignment. They don't know how to
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: successfully align these models. They don't even know what that, like,
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: this is a philosophical idea, right? Like, we don't even
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: know what it means to align an intelligence as it
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: surpasses us. What does that mean, right? Like, this idea
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: of a superintelligence and alignment is, like, it is a
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: kind of, definitionally, I don't even think we understand what
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: we're talking about. So the challenge of making sure these
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: models are aligned to our interests, whose interests? Who decides?
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: This is the problem. They're not really infusing them with
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: values and that's creating the problem. No one at OpenAI
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: is saying like, be evil and break the law and
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: do things that we don't like. It's like, no, they
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: train these things to be really dogged in pursuit of
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: achieving whatever goal they were or whatever task they were
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: asked to do and to desperately wanting that reward. And
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: it leads to reward hacking, which is just code for cheating.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: And so in the process of reward hacking, they can
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: do really bad things like hack into other companies. break
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: out of the sandbox, access the internet, and by the way,
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: not tell anybody at OpenAI that they.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Were doing it.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: And then even scheme about how to cover their tracks
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: by deleting the logs.
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: It is a 1942 story about the three laws, about
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: trying to align robots to protect humans, right? Like, you know,
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: Amadei talks about what would happen if a rogue swarm
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: shuts down the internet. I don't know, what if they're
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: a listener to offline and they decide that phones are
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: really bad for us and because they love us, They
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: turn all the phones off. Is that an unaligned bot?
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: I would say yes.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Good plug for you.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: It's a great plug. In fact, I have a plug, actually. Yeah,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: I was going to say. If you want to align
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: behind an independent media company, you can subscribe to become
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: a friend of the pod. Go to Crooked.com slash friends,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: and you're supporting independent media here at Crooked, and you
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: get ad-free episodes of all your favorite Crooked pods. So
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: check it out. Go subscribe to Crooked.com slash friends. Pod
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Save America is brought to you by Sundaes.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: We are what we eat, and believe it or not,
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: so are our dogs. A long, healthy, active life starts
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: to clean. Real food nutrition every day. That's what Sundaes
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: for Dogs is all about. It's human-grade real food. Sundaes
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: recipes contain 80% plus all-natural meat, roughly twice the meat
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: content of some leading frozen brands, plus nutrient-rich materials like kale, ginger,
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: and blueberries. Gently air-dried rather than exposed to high heat.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: No fillers, no synthetic additives, no chemicals, just simple, complete nutrition.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: It doesn't look or smell like dog food. It looks
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: like high-quality jerky. It's vet-founded and vet-formulated, created by Dr.
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: Tori Waxman to meet her high standards as both a
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: veterinarian and a dog parent. And the best part, it's effortless.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: No fridge, no freezer, no prep, no mess. Just scoop
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: and serve. You get the quality of a home-cooked meal
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: with the ease of kibble. I can confirm that this
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: dog food tastes great. Not because I ate it. I
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: didn't Laura Loomer this thing. My dog, Luca, loves sundaes.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: I know John's dog, Leo, loves sundaes too. All the
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: dogs in this office love sundaes. He put out some sundaes.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: In the Crooked Media office, you have a pack of
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: dogs in your office eating fast. And they're happy, healthy,
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: softer coats, less itching, no eye boogers. They're just a
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: happier pup. Make the switch to Sundays. Go right now
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: to Sundays4Dogs. com slash Crooked and get 50% off your first order.
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: Or you can use the code Crooked at checkout. That's
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: 50% off your first order at Sundays4Dogs. com slash Crooked. Sundays4Dogs. com
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: slash Crooked or use code Crooked at checkout.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: All right, no dying civilization would be complete without its
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: rulers taking as much as they can on the way out.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: So in that spirit, we do have a corrupt date
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: from the Trump family for you. A new stunning investigation
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: by ProPublica found that large portions of Don Jr. 's
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: wedding festivities, including a private island and firework show, were
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: paid for by a Russian oligarch named Umar Kremlev, who
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: runs a boxing company and was recently awarded a state
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: honor by Putin himself. In an Instagram post on Monday,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Don Jr. 's wife acknowledged that the couple's, quote, dear
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: friend Umar, very generously hosted two incredible nights of celebrations.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: According to the article, Kremlin has tried to curry favor
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: with the Trump administration and organization after his boxing company,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: which has Russian government backing, was barred from organizing the
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Olympic boxing events in 2023. In her Instagram post, Bettina
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: wrote that it was, quote, unfortunate that her wedding was being, quote,
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: recast as something political or sinister. Friendship doesn't require a
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: political motive. Maybe this is why Trump opted to skip
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: his son's nuptials. What do you guys think?
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: I hope this is the reason. I mean, the Occam's
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: razor reason. He's just doesn't really like Don Jr. But
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: God only knows. I mean, so this story is incredible.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Everyone should read it. And shout out to ProPublica for
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: doing just unbelievable investigative work. Although I wonder how it
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: feels to do this like long investigation and then have
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: Don Jr. 's wife just confirm it all.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: Just an Instagram post. So it sounds like this this
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: Russian oligarch very close to Putin. Paid to rent out
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: a private island that cost about 100 grand a night
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: and then a fireworks display that cost an estimated 70 grand.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: So that's a lot of money. This is a wedding
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: for 50 people. And this random Russian oligarch made the cut.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: As you mentioned, he's the head of the International Boxing
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: Association that is financed by Gazprom, the Russian state owned
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: like energy behemoth.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Before the wedding, he was in China with Putin. And
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: then Putin recently bestowed Umar Kremlin with this giant state honor,
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: the Order of Friendship. Putin, I guess, nationalized Russia's largest
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: car dealership in 2023 and made Kremlin, the owner of that.
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: So they're very close, obviously. And then Kremlin's wife's twin
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: sister runs an organization called Healthy Fatherland that is sanctioned
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: in Ukraine for its role in abducting Ukrainian kids for stealing.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: It's like the most evil thing that Russia is doing
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: in this war. This guy is connected to in his family.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: And so like my takeaway reading this story.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: It sounds like he wanted something to from the Trump administration.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, no doubt we can only imagine. But like
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: my takeaway is like Don Jr. is reportedly worth several
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: hundred million dollars. Why wouldn't you just pay for your
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: own wedding? And then given all the history of the
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: Russiagate probe and how much you said it like screwed
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: up your life and fucked up your family, you let
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: a Russian oligarch of all people foot the bill. It
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: just– it raises so many questions and I don't want
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: to go down the P-tape fucking path again. But it's crazy.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: But it's also like he got away with it. Not
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: just the wedding, but like they got away with the
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: whole Russia thing.
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: And so they won again. And so he's like, I mean,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: I think it's like as simple as like they don't
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: fucking care.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: They definitely don't care. It's just it's bonkers.
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: I find the whole thing baffling, too. So first of all,
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: just worth saying, like, who the fuck is this guy
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: paying for for Don Jr. 's wedding?
• 50:50
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: So you have you have Don Jr. 's new wife
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: saying that our dear friend Omar, you have. Kremlin's office
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: saying Mr. Kremlin and Mr. Trump Jr. have a friendly
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: relationship and they first met a couple years ago. You
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: have a spokesperson for Eric Trump saying Eric has absolutely
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: no clue who this person is, nor has he nor
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: has nor has never heard his name. Not grammatically correct,
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: but that's what's there. So who the fuck is this guy?
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: Like like you're a rich guy. Like you pay for
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: your own fucking wedding. Like it shouldn't like it's a
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: lot of money to everyone else. It's not shouldn't be
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: a lot of money. for you. Like someone, some acquaintance says,
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: I want to pay for your wedding. Forget the corruption,
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: forget being cheap. Like, like, aren't you embarrassed to be
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: at this event with your friends and these fucking Russian
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: strangers during your wedding? So like, I don't think we
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: understand the fact, like the truth makes sense and this
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: doesn't make sense. So I don't really think we know
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: what's going on here. There's some in the, the, the,
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: the piece talks a little bit about the potential relationship
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: around the boxing organization and the Trump family, right? Like,
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: there's a potential working relationship there. There's also just more broadly, like.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: They were banned from the 2028 Olympics, and they were
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: hoping that Trump would do something about them being banned
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: from the 2028 Olympics.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a corrupt organization. But, you know, Putin very
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: famously uses these sports associations as just part of his
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: sports-washing effort. And Gazprom is the one often funding it. So, like,
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: all of it just stinks to high heaven. Like, you
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: want to talk about an op, like, this is a pretty...
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: obvious Russian op.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: I just love the juxtaposition. He said this. It was
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: a report in the piece. He said this on a podcast.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: It was really small, like just really close friends tried
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: to keep it really tight. And then they also have
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: the other attendees at the wedding looking at the Russians
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: and being like, what are they doing here? Who the
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: fuck are they? Did you see that they airlifted a
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: five-tier funfetti cake from Florida for the wedding? Airlifted. They
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: airlifted a five-tier funfetti cake.
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: I thought we blew it out at our wedding.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: But the... There's also this real kind of like end
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: of Studio 54, last act of Boogie Nights, like sort
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: of who the fuck are these people?
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: Jared Kushner was there, speaking of who was at the wedding,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: and he's tasked with negotiating an end to the Russian-Ukraine war.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: Well, Jared only gets his money from the Gulf, so
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: I don't want you to sully his name in this case.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Speaking of Trump family corruption, you guys see in the
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: Washington Sun that they reported this on Monday that Back
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: in May, four anonymous digital wallets moved the precise amount
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: of World Liberty Financial tokens held by Trump and his
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: three sons into what's called a vesting contract. And that
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: optional choice could be the first step towards selling off
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: their holdings, which a lawyer for World Liberty Financial denied
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: to the son. I guess they still have like a
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: two-year lockup or something.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: First we pump, then we dump, the lawyer said. Yeah,
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: it's good stuff. Crypto business.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: This is amazing.
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Up and up.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: A couple of last campaign items from the great state
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: of Texas. where even Republicans who aren't named Ken Paxton
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: are having some problems. In the 23rd district, a key
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: open seat in the southwestern part of the state, gun
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: seller and YouTuber Brandon Herrera, also known as the AK guy,
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: is running against normal American Katie Padilla Stout. Herrera has
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: said all manner of absolutely disgusting things. I can't believe
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: we haven't talked about this yet on the show, which
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Jake Tapper asked Mike Johnson to respond to. on the
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: show over the weekend.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: Let's listen.
• 54:16
  Speaker 9: Here's a little bit of what he said just three
• 54:17
  Speaker 9: years ago, and I want to warn viewers that this
• 54:19
  Speaker 9: language is pretty gross.
• 54:23
  Speaker 8: Just because you let somebody cream pie you doesn't mean
• 54:26
  Speaker 8: I have to give a shit about your political opinions.
• 54:28
  Speaker 8: The fact that you kept your cum trophy doesn't make
• 54:31
  Speaker 8: you any less wrong about the dumb shit that you say.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: That's him disparaging moms.
• 54:36
  Speaker 9: He's also in a video testing a Nazi-era submachine gun.
• 54:39
  Speaker 9: He called it the, quote, original ghetto blaster. I have
• 54:43
  Speaker 9: to say, I know you're not a voter in that district.
• 54:45
  Speaker 9: You didn't nominate this guy, but I was surprised to
• 54:47
  Speaker 9: see you endorse him and fundraise him, fundraise for him.
• 54:50
  Speaker 9: What does his candidate say about the Republican Party's more
• 54:54
  Speaker 9: extreme candidates?
• 54:56
  Speaker 10: Brandon Herrera has been out running a very effective campaign
• 54:59
  Speaker 10: and explained to people that he has apologized for all that.
• 55:02
  Speaker 10: He was a podcaster and a provocateur and tried to
• 55:04
  Speaker 10: get attention. That's not the way I speak or think,
• 55:06
  Speaker 10: and that's not the way most do. But that was
• 55:09
  Speaker 10: his persona online, right? Right now he's running as a
• 55:12
  Speaker 10: very serious candidate for Congress and a very thoughtful guy.
• 55:15
  Speaker 10: And he is far superior to the candidate he is
• 55:17
  Speaker 10: running against down in that district in South Texas. I'm
• 55:20
  Speaker 10: telling you, this is a contrast election between common sense
• 55:22
  Speaker 10: and crazy. Brandon Herrera will join the common sense team
• 55:26
  Speaker 10: of Republicans.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Now, these people just put on an entire convention where
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest focuses of the two days was
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Hasan Piker not running for anything.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: He said cum trophy?
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: Cum trophy.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: I assume that meant child.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's what he calls children.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: You've got to imagine that Speaker Johnson's Covenant Eyes app
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: was going blinking bright red as he had to do
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: the briefing on this one.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: He didn't have to explain that report to his son.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: He was like, no, no, I was just talking to
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: Jake Tapper. It wasn't anything bad.
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: It's such a low bar over there. They're handing out
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: participation cum trophies.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: This is where the right-wing media ecosystem comes in handy
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: because they can make Hasan Piker's streams from five years
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: ago a four week story now five week story and
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: this guy said exponentially more creepy shit and we it's
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: barely a blip.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: I know you complain it's like we all complain about
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: whataboutism but like this isn't even whataboutism because it's not
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: on the same level he's running for congress and the
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: speaker of the house endorsed him and raised money for
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: him Hasan Piker is just a guy a guy who
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: campaigned with a couple candidates that's that's the difference there Uh, so,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: you know, don't take the Republican party seriously when they, uh,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: complain to Democrats about this shit. Uh, and Herrera actually
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: may not be the most vile Republican candidate in Texas,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: believe it or not. On Sunday, Beau French, the Republican
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: nominee for railroad commissioner, which is a job that actually
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: has nothing to do with railroads. Uh, yeah, no, it's
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: a statewide office in Texas that regulates the oil and
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: gas industry.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: Of course.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: So also a very important job because big industry in
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: that state. Um, So this guy Beau French posted a
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: photo showing brown-skinned students at the University of Texas celebrating
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: the Longhorns' one-point win over Ohio State with the caption, quote,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I heard UT graduation this year looked like this. I
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: didn't believe it. The problem is now obviously far worse
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: than anyone imagined. To their credit, several prominent Texas Republicans,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: including outgoing Senator John Cornyn, did immediately condemn the tweet
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: and demand an apology. But French isn't backing down, saying, quote,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: I don't have anything against the people specifically in that picture.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: I think the bigger conversation is, are we going to
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: have policies to prioritize Americans or are we going to
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: have policies that prioritize foreigners? And I think most people
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: in the America First movement think we ought to be
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: prioritizing Americans. Well, that clears it up, doesn't it? What
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: percentage of the Republican base do you think sides with French?
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: And what percentage sides with Cornyn? I will say that
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: James Tallarico quoted it, condemned it, obviously, and then called
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: on Ken Paxson to condemn it. And all Ken Paxson
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: did was say, I condemn all racism, especially James Tallarico
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: attacking white people and then went on some rant about it.
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I refuse to condemn the guy. When my sister
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: graduated from college, my grandfather was still alive, and we
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: were sitting next to each other, and he had the
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: book with all the names, and he pulled out the
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: book with all the names, and he opened it, and
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: he goes, look at this. Jonathan, look at this.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: Look at this.
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: Look at these Indian names. This is the word he used.
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: He goes, look at these Oriental names. There are Mexican
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: names in here. This country's going to be better than ever.
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: Look at all this amazing talent that's come to this country.
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: It's a beautiful thing. Bernie Sanders wrote it. Isn't that
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: a twist?
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: That's a nice story.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: No, you know, it's funny because I've had relatives that
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: have said a few things like that.
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: But you're on the good side.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: No, that's what I'm saying. It's like sometimes they say
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: it and they're like, oh, well, they're trying to be good.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: But he really meant it.
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: He was just like, look at all this talent that's
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: come to this great country of ours.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: You know, to your question about. which percentage sides with
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: French versus Cornyn? Well, Cornyn lost his primary and French
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: is on the ballot. So I think that probably tells you,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: I imagine that Beau French went through the picture, identified
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: each individual and made sure that they were not American citizens,
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: that they're in fact foreigners. I mean, the way they
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: try to code racism now is saying it's about immigration policy.
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: But he has no idea if these kids are immigrants
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: or foreign students or just kids.
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: He's also running to oversee gas contracts. It's like everything
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: is the culture war. Everyone's got a way in on everything.
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: There's nothing to do with your job. I'm not sure what.
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: How college graduation has anything to do with the ways
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: in which you're going to be shipping oil across the state.
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: Racism is an electoral strategy.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Did you see white nationalist Richard Spencer tweeted the picture?
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: Although he tweeted it and then put J.D. Vance in
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: the picture too and did like a question mark kind
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: of thing. Of course, insinuating that J.D. Vance's wife Usha
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: is Indian American.
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: Not insinuating. I mean, she is. But this is what
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: like Nick Fuentes does too. I mean, they say this
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: stuff about J.D. Vance all the time and he will
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: not condemn them. Right. Right.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: And then he gets like really scoldy at the Republican
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: convention about Abdul.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: How dare you?
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, right.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Last Texas update before we get to my conversation with
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: Sarah Longwell. And this guy's not even on the ballot yet.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: But before the UT game on Saturday, Ted Cruz went
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: on ESPN's College Game Day, which famously records in front
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: of a live audience of fans. To talk about his
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: college sports bill, here's how it went. Senator from the
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: state of Texas, Ted Cruz. Ted, of course, is here,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: who has.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: Been an instrumental part in introducing the Protect College Sports Act.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: You have an enormous skip. But it also puts reasonable
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: rules in place. Ted Cruz, 2028, what do you guys think?
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: That's so funny. God, I love it. What a popular guy.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: I just don't see the Ted Cruz boomlet.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: I guess what I don't know.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: God, no. I mean, what was J.D. Vance's thing about
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: him the other day where he was asked about Ted Cruz?
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: And he's like, oh, Ted's such a likable, authentic guy.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: They've been going back and forth. So because Cruz on
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: his podcast said that J.D. Vance fucked up the memorandum
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: of Versailles. And then Vance hit him as being this
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: sort of, you know, then Vance hit him for even
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: talking about 2028 saying we should be focused on right now.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: But I'm sure he'll do well.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: He's so likable.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: So I do think that is a real tension point.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: And they're both such wonderful personalities.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Very likable. Yeah. They're both likable enough.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: What I couldn't tell there, I mean, I assume the
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: majority of those kids dislike Ted Cruz for the reason
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: we all dislike Ted Cruz, which is his personality and
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: his career and everything about him. There is a specific
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: issue where Ted Cruz, what he was there to talk
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: about was this Protect College Sports Act thing. that I
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: think the University of Texas at Texas A & M
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: both specifically oppose. So maybe it was a little bit
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: of a policy-focused jeer too, but all of the above.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: Wow, that's an amazing possibility.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: I would be surprised if those kids could hear what
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: he was saying. Knew that he was involved with the bill.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: I think it pipes in. I mean, I think if
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: you're there in the live audience, you're supposed to be
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: able to hear. But who knows? I could be told.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's just a loser. They dislike him, too.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: And they probably just wanted to watch football. Yes. All right.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: When we come back, my conversation with Sarah Longwell. Pod
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: Save America is brought to you by Bombas. Cozy season
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: is approaching fast. That means curling up on crisp mornings
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: and soft layers. Bombas makes your comfiest fall staples so
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: you can make the most out of arguably the best
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: season of the year. Bombas new suede moccasins are perfect
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: for fall with cushy soles, a shearing lining, and water-resistant suede.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: And their slippers are everything you'd want for a cozy
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: night in made with the softest, most cloud-like materials. Then
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: there's Bombas Compression Sock Collection. Choose from specialized design for travel,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: everyday workout, and recovery. There's a fatigue-fighting pair for every moment.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Love Bombas socks. Whole family's got them. Kids, adults.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: I'm wearing them right now.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: Tommy's wearing them right now. You can get them with
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: designs that are cute. You can get them just plain.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: They're all soft. And the best part is for every
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: item you purchase, they donate an essential clothing item to
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: someone facing housing insecurity. One purchased equals one donated with
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: over 200 million donations and counting. Head over to Bombas.com
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: slash Cricut and use code Cricut for 20% off your
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: first purchase. That's B-O-M-B-A-S dot com slash crooked. Code crooked
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: at checkout. Sarah Longwell, welcome back to Pod Save America.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 6: Hey, John. Thanks for having me, man.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: You're here on your book tour.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: I am.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: The book is How to Eat an Elephant, One Voter
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: at a Time. It's a fantastic book.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: Thank you.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: That you and I got to talk about at an
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: event here last night. It was cool.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: It was very fun.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 6: It was cool to be at Chevalier Books.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Oh, it's the best.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 6: If you want to support your local bookstore and you're
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 6: out in LA, go to Chevalier.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: Our neighborhood bookstore. I had a bunch of questions I
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: didn't get to, so we can hopefully get into some
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: of those here. First, I want to start with a
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: little news of the day.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: Let's do it.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: This is the week that worries about existential risks from
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: AI have gone mainstream, at least among politicians. Trump... His
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: AIs are J.D. Vance, Mike Johnson. Others are basically saying
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: no regulations, no safeguards, foot on the gas, got to
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: beat China to the development of superhuman intelligence that humans
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: might lose control of. I don't know why we have
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: to beat China to that. But what, if anything, have
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: you heard from voters about AI? I know there's been
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of anxiety expressed in groups over data centers,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: I'm sure. But have you heard people express other AI
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: concerns about killer robots or anything like that?
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah, people talk less about killer robots and more about
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 6: it potentially taking their jobs, right? Because voters, when they
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 6: talk about AI, they tend to talk about it across
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 6: three vectors. There's the, hey, the data centers, I feel like,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 6: are just something that's happening to me in my community,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 6: even though we don't want them. Then they talk about
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 6: the costs associated with it, specifically around energy costs. And
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 6: they're like, you know, it's already costing so much and
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 6: it's raising my... And we heard a lot, even starting
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 6: in 2025, when Abigail Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill were running,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 6: that was the first time I felt like, oh, this
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 6: is at the center of this race. And then the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 6: third thing is, I don't know what it means for
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 6: my employment prospects in the future. And I suspect this
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 6: new sort of now fourth vector of AI, which is
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 6: also like, will it kill us? Is it going to
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 6: end civilization? Is a new thing, I'm sure it will
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 6: start popping up in groups. What's interesting to me about
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 6: it and the president's response is that it really is
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 6: such a loser for them right now politically. So even
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 6: if you say, hey, look, I'm Trump. I need AI
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 6: because how else am I going to you know, beat
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 6: up the Canadian prime minister with a hockey stick or
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 6: make myself the Green Lantern. You know, he used to
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 6: have sort of better instincts about where the populist energy was.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 6: And so he's not doing that right now. And what's
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 6: even weirder is that you've got the AI, what, oligarchs,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 6: these tech oligarchs saying, you should probably regulate us and
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 6: we should probably slow down. And it's weird that they're
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 6: on board, but the Trump administration is like, No, you
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 6: must barrel ahead.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: And I was surprised at J.D. Vance, too, saying, well,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it kind of worries me that these
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: AI companies are asking for regulations. It seems like a
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: Trojan horse. I'm like, if I was him, like, that's
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: a clip that could come back to bite him in
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: the ass in 2028. Because I would imagine, and I've
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: looked at some of the polling on this, like, it's
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: probably more complicated than either side imagines. But It's pretty
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: clear people think that there's a danger of too little
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: regulation of AI companies more than too much regulation at
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: this point.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 6: That is for sure where the public is because, look,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 6: it's brand new. And one of the things that is
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 6: also strange about Trump is he's somebody who over communicates often.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 6: But I think part of what's going on for voters
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 6: is they feel like they're starting to see it pop up.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 10: Right.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 6: They use it on their phones. And so they are
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 6: using it. But they're also waiting for someone to explain
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 6: to them. how this is all going to work. Is
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 6: there a plan? And I think that, you know, when
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 6: you have something, I was thinking about this, you know,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 6: people like you, people like me, we always talk about
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 6: how Donald Trump is an existential threat. But I was saying,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 6: I'm not sure that's exactly right. What it is, is
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 6: that there were always going to be existential threats that
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 6: would occur during his tenure. And he's too much of
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 6: an unserious clown to to deal with them. And AI
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 6: feels like that. It feels like this is a new
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 6: thing for voters. They want somebody to explain how it's
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 6: going to work, how we're going to tackle it. It's
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 6: one of the reasons they want younger legislators that you
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 6: hear so many, because I hear this all the time,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 6: where they're just like, I feel like these older legislators,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 6: they're not connected to the thing that is happening to
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 6: me right now. And AI is very much part of that.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 6: And so, yeah, I mean, for them to just not
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 6: even go out and make a case to voters about
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 6: putting the data centers there, about how it's going to
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 6: affect employment, voters right now are just out to see
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 6: on it.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: I also think, and you write about this in the book,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: that I think you said, like, sometimes you think that
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: the most important thing about politics is the lack of
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: trust right now. The trust is the biggest issue. And
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: I completely agree. I feel like this is the low
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: trust environment that we live in, like biting us in
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: the ass on AI because, and it's, you know, left
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: over from the pandemic as well, which is no one
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: trusts the AI oligarchs, Trump, politicians, other people either trying
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: to sell them a product or saying that they want
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: to regulate it. And this is a moment where we
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: actually need people to trust in what experts are saying.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: And I don't know that we're going to be able
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: to sort of navigate that in this low trust environment.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 6: I think you're right. The thing that voters say all
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 6: the time in focus groups about just the information. is
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 6: they say, I don't know what to believe anymore. They
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 6: know that there's, and they've always thought this, right? That
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 6: there's these bigger forces that are manipulating things. And so like,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 6: is China paying for us to be skeptical of AI?
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 6: We don't know. And so people, they say this all
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 6: the time. They'll be like, I have to watch this
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 6: channel and this channel, and I've got to figure out
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 6: if the truth is in between. We're asking a lot
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 6: of people already in terms of how they Arbitrate truth
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 6: and information and now AI is about to make that
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 6: a lot more difficult for them and just when the
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 6: last thing on the AI and data centers is it's
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 6: not particularly partisan, you know when I go home to central,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 6: Pennsylvania and I see– and I'm from like a very
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 6: rural part. I just see these no data center signs
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 6: everywhere because where is there a ton of land to
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 6: build new data centers? It's in these sort of rural
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 6: communities where there's still a lot of land. And so
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 6: it is those voters right now who are some of
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 6: the most skeptical.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And it's only getting worse. And I think it's
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: going to be a big issue in 26. We're already
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: seeing it. For sure. But it will be in.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: 28 as well.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: Midterms. So far, the post-Labor-Day polling for Dems has only improved,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: especially as pollsters start switching from polls of registered voters
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: to polls of likely voters. As we speak, Nate Silver's
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: model has Dems' chances of taking the Senate like near
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: 60 percent, depending on which version you use. Your most
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: recent focus group pod on Texas had some Trump voters
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: sounding pretty down on Ken Paxton and kind of open
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: to Tallarico.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: Have you noticed a shift among focus group participants in
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: the last few weeks or heard anything new come up
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: that stuck with you as we head towards the midterms
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: and the final stretch?
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 6: The biggest thing overall is just how sort of demoralized
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 6: Republicans are. So when you, the Ossoff, the Georgia race, really,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 6: when we were doing voters there, they were just like, yeah,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 6: we're going to lose, you know? And they're like, why
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 6: can't we find somebody better? They were really, and I
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 6: heard this across the races, people were really unhappy with
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 6: their choices among the Republican candidates and just felt like
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 6: there wasn't anybody particularly good in Texas. We were talking, yeah,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 6: to Trump disapprovers, which is, by the way, a rapidly
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 6: expanding category. So one of the things when we, you
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 6: know how this is done, right? But when you're screening
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 6: to find voters. We're often looking for like, okay, who's persuadable,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 6: who's a little on the fence. And so you'll find
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 6: people who say that they think that Trump's doing either
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 6: a somewhat bad or a very bad job. That category
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 6: grows all the time. And then you listen to voters
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 6: in that category in a place like Texas, and they're like,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 6: Ken Paxton's a scumbag. He's a crook. And they'll be like,
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 6: and Tallarico seems like a nice person. And they even say,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 6: I know he said some weird things and I don't
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 6: agree with that, but he seems like a nice guy.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 6: And they still, some of them say, I'm not sure
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 6: I can bring myself to vote for a Democrat. But
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 6: several of them said, I can vote for him and
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 6: I probably will because I can't vote for Paxton. But
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 6: when I think about enthusiasm, the enthusiasm gap really matters
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 6: in midterms because it's like, it's just different from a
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 6: general in terms of turning out And so when you've
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 6: got Democrats who can't wait to get out and vote
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 6: in a midterm, and then you've got Republicans who are like,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 6: there's not that much about this agenda I'm trying to protect.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 6: I'm not happy about the war. I'm not happy about prices.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 6: They're just not as interested in going out and doing it.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 6: And so that, I think, is where Democrats really get
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 6: their advantage.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah. When I heard some of those voters in your
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: focus group talking about how, I really don't like Paxton.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I can vote for Tallarico like
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: a couple. I'm like, those are people who are just
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: not going to vote.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 6: That's right.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: Or vote for a vote-down ballot, leave that blank, whatever
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: it may be. But in a midterm, you can see
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: that happening.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 6: Well, there's a reason that Donald Trump had to do
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 6: his weird midterm rah-rah thing in Dallas, which is, A,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 6: they're afraid they're going to lose Texas. But also, he
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 6: thinks that he's got to put himself on the ballot
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 6: because they're seeing clearly in all of their data that
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 6: they've got a real enthusiasm problem, that people are not
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 6: interested in turning out to vote. So that's what that
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 6: was about. Whether or not that was achieved is a
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 6: different story.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: The thing that seems to be worrying Dems most ahead
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: of the midterms is being significantly outspent by Republicans. I
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: have this unproven theory that at some point there's just
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: diminishing returns on saturating everyone's screens with political ads because
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: people just tune them out, partly because there are so many,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: partly because they just don't seem authentic enough. in an
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: information environment that prizes authenticity, which you write a lot
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: about in the book. But what do you think?
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 6: I totally agree there's diminishing returns. I mean, and also
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 6: there's also sometimes I think you start to get into
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 6: backlash territory where people are like, I'm so sick of this.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 6: And the voters, they tend to know which ads are about.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 6: So right now in Texas, Tallarico is running some very
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 6: strong bio, like biography ads that That's a good way
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 6: to spend money. Ken Paxton's running all of these like
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 6: weird AI ads saying like, you know, Talrico's a weirdo
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 6: and everything. At some point, voters start to say, I
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 6: don't like, he doesn't have enough of a message. It's
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 6: just all why this guy is bad. And it starts
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 6: to have a little bit of a backlash. Obviously, money matters.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 6: But I do think that one of the things I'm
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 6: seeing where I feel like Democrats have gotten the message
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 6: in a couple of places is They're going everywhere. They
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 6: understand they have to show up places that they can't
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 6: just spend money. And a bunch of people who've had
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 6: more money than their opponents and have basically relied on
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 6: that lost their primaries. Because what people want to know is,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 6: can you get to me organically? Do I hear you
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 6: in a natural state, not just on the ads? Do
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 6: I see you in person? Which Taurico is all over Texas.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: It's a hard state to do that.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 6: Hard state, big state. And so I think the Democrats
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 6: are making up for it with some much needed elbow grease.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: So you and I share a concern that if there
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: is a blue wave in November, Democrats may look at
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: the results and think, we're awesome. The party's brand problem
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: is mostly solved. We should feel great about 28. Why
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: would that be the wrong takeaway in your opinion?
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 6: That's the absolute worst takeaway. In part because, look, Democrats
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 6: now have a real structural advantage in midterms. You talk
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 6: about this a lot. I talk about this a lot.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 6: Those college-educated suburban voters like me who ran out of
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 6: the Republican Party as fast as we could when Donald
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 6: Trump got there now make up a good chunk of
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 6: midterm voters. They show up and vote. These are college-educated
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 6: suburban voters. On the other side of that coin, though,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 6: is the non-college working class voters and a multiracial working
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 6: class coalition. You know, Trump won with Hispanics or a
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 6: much higher proportion of Hispanics, a much higher proportion of
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 6: black voters, much higher proportion of young voters. And I
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 6: think once you get to a general election, the electorate
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 6: just looks different. Like the median voter in a general
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 6: election is a 55-year-old white guy without a college degree.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 6: And so Democrats sort of have to grapple with this difference.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 6: And I think They're only starting to get their heads
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 6: around how different it looks midterm environment to general election environment.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: Well, let's talk 28 a bit. You write pretty directly
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: in the book that Kamala Harris should not run again.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: Is that a judgment about her abilities, about the circumstances
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: of 24, or about whether voters would ever be able
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: to see her as something new?
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 6: I think it's a little bit all of the above.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 6: The number one thing is there are just some things
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 6: that are not that she sort of can't fix because
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 6: they're who a person is. And the struggle for Kamala Harris,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 6: the thing that I heard from voters over and over again,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 6: was that they could hear, they could like see her
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 6: wheels turning. They feel her calculations. And that is just,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 6: it's a non-starter with voters. And so when they say,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 6: I don't know who she is, they don't believe that
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 6: she's authentically who she is. And even if she shows
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 6: back up now, and is the authentic version of her,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 6: it will be contrasted with the several other versions of
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 6: her that they have seen, and they will not trust it.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 6: They also, they found the way that that primary happened,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 6: it was not her fault. I think voters are too
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 6: hard on her about a lot of this stuff, but
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 6: they saw her as an anti-democratic actor, that the way
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 6: that she became the nominee. And so I think that
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 6: she is a non-starter with voters, and I wish that
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 6: she had run for governor of California because I think
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 6: she would have made a great governor and would have
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 6: been a great foil for Trump in the office.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I also like, I've been watching her few appearances.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: She hasn't been out that much either, which I think
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: is challenging to then run again. But her few appearances
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: that she's had since the race, it's not like much
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: has changed in the way she talks and what her
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: message is and what she has to say. You can
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: tell there's a little bit now of like, we need
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: an outsider and there's too many insiders in Washington. But
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: then again, to your earlier point, it sounds like she's
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: saying that because someone was like, people want outsiders, they
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: don't want an insider. It doesn't feel like it's genuine.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: And voters can smell this.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 6: Like, they just are onto people. And, you know, I
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 6: also write a lot in the book about the communications environment.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 6: All day long, people are staring at talkers like us
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 6: and like everybody else, right? They know when we're telling
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 6: the truth. They are used to now this sort of intimacy,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 6: this parasocial relationship that you have. And so they can
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 6: tell when you are calculating your answer. They feel it
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 6: in their bones. And that is how she does politics.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 6: It will not work in a 2028 run. It actually
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 6: still works down ballot. You can be just sort of
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 6: a boring or a straightforward politician who's got a good message.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 6: It just doesn't work at the presidential level.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: I think people miss that last point because you get
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of people saying like, well, we have Roy
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: Cooper and we have Andy Beshear. We have all these.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: And I was like, well, it's different running for a
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: statewide office, especially governors. Because you can show up in
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: all these places and you can be good at constituent
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: services and you can be there for people and people
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: get to know you for a long time. And it's
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: just a different environment on a national level. You've talked
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: about being impressed by Ossoff, Buttigieg, AOC in terms of communication.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: What are they doing right in terms of effective communication,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: getting attention, showing the ability to potentially achieve narrative dominance
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: over Republicans?
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 6: Yeah, what I like right now is that, you know,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 6: while everybody else is having this interminable fight about more
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 6: moderate versus more progressive, there are basically four, I see
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 6: four incredibly good communications, rubrics, examples. But you've got Ossoff.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 6: Ossoff has his way of communicating. He was a documentary filmmaker.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 6: He gives, he writes his own speeches. He gives them
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 6: at the podium. He has a shooting from behind. He's
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 6: got his he's been lifting weights, hitting the gym. And
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 6: he goes straightforwardly at Trump and provides a contrast. And
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 6: then he releases them to social media. That is his format.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 6: Pete Buttigieg's format is in person at the town halls
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 6: and he goes to red places and he talks earnestly
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 6: with people. And he's got. ideas for how to fix things.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 6: He's got his little McKinsey brain on, right? And he's like,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 6: here are the things that we need to do to
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 6: change politics. That's what Pete does. That's who Pete is. AOC,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 6: much more of sort of influencer, connective energy. She'll tell
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 6: you about her personal life. She does all the straight
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 6: to camera stuff. I love watching AOC kind of do
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 6: her thing and grow up, but still understand how to
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 6: match voters or go eye to eye with them. And
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 6: then you've got Mamdani, who is somebody who Any question
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 6: you ask him, Donna, you sort of made this point
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 6: last night, but this is, even if I think that
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 6: his bespoke policies around how to lower prices might be
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 6: sort of silly, I think his relentless focus on affordability
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 6: is the way that everybody should be behaving. And I
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 6: even say, look, Donald Trump talked about a wall, a
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 6: wall that never really got built. Voters didn't care whether
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 6: the wall got built. They cared that when he talked
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 6: about immigration- It sounded like he meant it, right? He
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 6: had an idea for immigration. He was going to take
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 6: immigration seriously. The wall's just a stand-in for that. Mamdani's
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 6: particular policies are much less important than the fact that
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 6: he is relentless about saying, I know the city's too
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 6: expensive for you to live in because that's what people
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 6: feel all the time. And so I think it's less
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 6: about particular ideology and more about being able to communicate
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 6: effectively with people in your own way that's authentic to
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 6: you and to have a theory of the case about
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 6: how you're going to talk to people. So I see
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 6: a lot of good stuff happening.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: The other thing Mamdani does is when he pivots almost
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: any question to affordability, he kind of does it with
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: like a wink and a nod. Like he knows that
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: this is the game, which I think is important because,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: you know, you can imagine a lot of Democrats hearing
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: that and saying politicians hearing that and being like, well,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: I talk about affordability all the time. But the key
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: is to talk about it in a way that is
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: that you really believe it. It's genuine. But also like
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: you get the game of politics. Like there's a little–
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: Trump was good at that. Obama was good at that
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: in their sense of humor. Like everyone knows that this
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: is crazy, that what we do. This whole thing is
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: a circus. It's absurd. And if you have politicians who
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: are like willing to kind of break that fourth wall
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: to let everyone know like, yeah, no, I know this
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: is crazy too, that really helps.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 6: I mean– So I completely agree with this. And this
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 6: is why when somebody says, OK, don't you know, the
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 6: Republicans are trying to set the terms of the debate
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 6: somewhere insane that matters to so few people. They're like,
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 6: we are going to focus relentlessly on trans sports. OK,
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 6: that's what we're going to talk about. And I feel
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 6: like a lot of Democrats have really struggled with how
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 6: to get out of that format. They're like, oh, no,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 6: they like you see them panic. They're like deer in headlights.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 6: And you could see Mamdani being like, do you know
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 6: what trans sports reminds me of? The fact that you
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 6: can't afford anything in New York, you know, if you
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 6: do that, it's actually not that hard.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: No, I know.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about Republicans. Your book describes a fight between
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: a MAGA establishment that wants power and an America first
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: movement with its own beliefs and grievances. Do you think
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: that split is durable? Like, will we see that in
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: in 28 or do you think it's like a current
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: sort of current dynamic?
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 6: I think the current dynamic is a reflection of how
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 6: things are shaping up for 2028. I think there is
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 6: a group of people who feel like they cannot defend
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 6: Trump's record, who don't want to have to defend Trump's record,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 6: and who think that what he has done on the
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 6: war and the fact that he has not tackled affordability
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 6: makes Trump, they are making a bet that Trump will
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 6: not be as popular on the way out and that
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 6: people are going to want, like, true America first has
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 6: never been tried. And that is going to be Marjorie
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 6: Taylor Greene. That is going to be Tucker Carlson. Because
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 6: the war was a real breaking point on the right.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 6: There were a lot of people who said, this is
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 6: him breaking faith with us. They dealt with the Epstein files.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 6: They could deal with the affordability, but not the wars.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 6: They talked about it too much. America first was about
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 6: not doing this stuff, focusing on problems here at home.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 6: And so I think that that wing of the party
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 6: wants to mount a challenge. I think the MAGA establishment
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 6: is where you get Trump having his thumb on the
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 6: scale of who the nominee is, people feeling like, well,
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 6: Trump has this dominant role in every presidential or every primary.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 6: And so whoever Trump wants, he'll get in this. If
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 6: he wants it to be Rubio, if he wants it
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 6: to be J.D. Vance, I'll try entirely by that. Because again,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 6: if things go well, Trump should be historically unpopular. And
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 6: what you want are all the candidates kind of running
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 6: from him.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: How does Vance handle all this, do you think? First
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: of all, it seems like he's trying to straddle The
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: MAGA establishment because he has to because he's in it.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: And this America First group. Like you can tell he's–
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: to me it feels too cute by half, but I
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: don't know.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: No, yeah.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 6: He thought he was going to straddle it. Like Vance
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 6: was like I'm the one person that can hold these
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 6: two coalitions together. I keep Vance or I keep Tucker
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 6: in the tent and I can hold, you know, just
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 6: the people who love Trump. He's in the sour spot.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 6: He's like fallen through the middle and now he's down
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 6: here by himself in this place where– and you know
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 6: who's smart? Marco Rubio is just way more savvy about
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 6: this stuff. Marco Rubio is staying so far as the–
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 6: he is the person who is supposed to be doing
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 6: the negotiations. He is the secretary of state. But Marco
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 6: Rubio is like, I'm going to go to the wrestling
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 6: match with Trump and I'm going to let J.D. Vance–
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 6: Eat this shit sandwich of going to Iran and having
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 6: the Iranians be like, yeah, no, we're not going to
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 6: make a deal with you. And every day that goes by,
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 6: Vance is being put in a worse and worse position,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 6: one that he is not talented enough to work his
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 6: way out of.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: What did you think of his convention speech?
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 6: Well, I thought it was repellent. He is a repellent individual.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 6: He somehow manages to have all of Trump's sort of
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 6: disgusting comments. like, hateful rhetoric, but, like, none of the
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 6: charm or talent. And I say this as somebody who
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 6: finds Trump absolutely charmless, but you can feel the audience
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 6: being like, you are a weak-T version of Trump. Thanks,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 6: Temu Trump, for all your thoughts.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: See, this is, like, I can't stand Vance, so I feel, like,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: biased in analyzing his political prospects. But I had the
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: same reaction to the speech, although, you know, like, Pfeiffer said,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: he's like, I could see reporters giving him some credit
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: for that speech. And then, you know, sure enough, like
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: Playbook had some item the next day where it was like,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: within the party, people are really excited, were excited by
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: that J.D. Vance speech.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 6: No, they weren't. I don't believe that. I just don't
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 6: believe it. Do you know, I wrote down, I was like,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 6: I texted, I was like, give me some of the
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 6: most recent comments about Vance in the focus groups. And
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 6: because they're, the Republican voters are, are pretty negative about him.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 6: And the women remember the childless cat ladies, like Republican women,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 6: young Republican women, they don't like him. But the quote
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 6: was that we hear all the time, there's just something
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 6: about him I don't like. And, you know, I actually
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 6: saw with Seth Moulton, Seth Moulton, who I liked personally,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 6: but he got that treatment from the voters of like,
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 6: there's just something about him I don't like. And he
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 6: lost to an 80 year old by like 30 points.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 6: And I feel like J.D. Vance has very similar energy
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 6: where I'm supposed to be the next generation. I'm here
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 6: to tell you I'm the next generation. And voters just
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 6: have sort of like he turns them off in a
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 6: specific way.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: It's interesting, like I have talked to some of the
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: finance tech bro people who sort of went for Trump
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: in 24, you know, maybe fans of Elon. And they
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: will say sort of matter of factly now, JD Van sucks.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: And we all think it's going to be Rubio. And
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: then Rubio really has a shot at winning in 28.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: And I'm always like, I don't know what the path
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: is for Marco Rubio in 2028. Like, can you figure
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: out a path here?
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 6: So I could see a path. and the path is this.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 6: So first of all, Marco Rubio is weirdly being memed
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 6: into a place right now where that meme where every
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 6: bad job, like Marco Rubio's got to be the head
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 6: of Venezuela now, is giving the Marco Rubio's the only
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 6: competent person in this administration energy, right? That's what voters
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 6: are taking away from it. The other interesting thing is
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 6: listening to young voters who do not remember pre-Trump Marco Rubio.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 6: They're like, you know who's good? That Marco Rubio guy.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 6: And I'm like, well, I'll show you him from 2015
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 6: and you won't think so doing immigration reform. But I guess,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 6: so I tell a story in the book right in
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 6: the introduction about being backstage at the Dealbook Summit for
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 6: the New York Times and Kevin McCarthy is there and
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 6: he's preening around. They've just won the election. And one
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 6: of the things he's talking about is how Trump is
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 6: a turnout machine in ways that other Republicans just have
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 6: never done. They do not have this juice. And he
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 6: can't believe it. He's so excited by it. And I
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 6: was sitting there thinking, what happens when he's gone, Kevin?
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 6: Does Marco Rubio put out these kinds of, like, does
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 6: he turn people out in these rural areas at this rate?
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 6: He doesn't. So I do think the path for Marco Rubio, though,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 6: would be really people saying, like, I think the Democratic
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 6: Party is too far left. Like it would have to
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 6: be a contrast where people say he seems normal relative
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 6: to Trump, but the Dems are too far left.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: I was worried about a path for him in a primary.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: Like I don't– like if Vance runs, I can't– which
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: it seems like he's going to. I can't imagine Rubio
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: also running. I can imagine Rubio– I can imagine them
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: like forming a ticket early perhaps. Yeah. But like I
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: have a hard time imagining Rubio running against him unless
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: Trump does something crazy like I really like Marco and
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to let them fight it out.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 6: Yeah, although, you know, when we handicap stuff like this,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 6: what always strikes me is that Marco Rubio and J.D.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 6: Vance are together all the time.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 6: They've got a plan. They're handling this in some way. Like,
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 6: we can sit and handicap it, but it's not really
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 6: going to work like that. They're going to work it
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 6: out in some way, probably with Trump, with Trump's kids. Like,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 6: that orbit is pretty specific.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: And it feels like if J.D. Vance gets a challenge,
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: it's from outside that orbit, like Ted Cruz— Or some outsider.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 6: Someone exciting like Ted Cruz.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: Or some outsider. I don't feel like the Tucker thing
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: is really going to happen, but I don't know.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 6: I mean, I think there will be a decent number
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 6: of Republicans who run in part because there's pretty big
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 6: pent-up demand for trying to.
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: An America first or somewhere?
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: Well, no, no, no. I don't mean.
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 6: I mean pent-up demand for people who want to run,
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 6: who've been... you know, basically like mod by Trump now
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 6: for over a decade. And they've been saying, you know,
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 6: I want to have my time, uh, nationally. I think
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 6: to me, what's more interesting is not who runs it,
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 6: sort of what voters want in a post Trump world,
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 6: because a big part of my theory of the case
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 6: rests on this fact that Trump has changed the Republican
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 6: party to such a degree where it is this cult
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 6: of personality. We all see it putting on the red
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 6: hat is the ticket in to the coalition when Trump
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 6: is gone. It's not a party that has a policy platform.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 6: It's not a party that stands for something clearly. It's
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 6: not a party that has stars outside of Trump or
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 6: voters who are committed to those politicians in the way
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 6: that they're committed to Trump. They don't have the same
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 6: sunk cost. They haven't, you know, ended their relationships with
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 6: their cousin over, you know, it's just going to be
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 6: a totally different environment. That's why if Democrats can get
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 6: it together, like the book is about, guys, historic generational
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 6: opportunity to go on offense against a flatlining party. Republican
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 6: Party that stands for nothing, just a hollowed out nothing.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 6: Go get it. Pick it up and go get it.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: That's why we got to get Trump to that bush line.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 6: Got to get him below the bush line, man.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: How to Eat an Elephant. It's a fantastic book. Everyone
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: go buy it. We don't want Ted Cruz beating you
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: on the bestseller list.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 6: Yeah, or Victor Davis Hanson or some other weird Republican.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: So everyone, pod listeners, everyone go buy Sarah's book. It's fantastic.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: You won't regret it. Thanks for coming on.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 6: Thanks, John. It's great to be here.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: That's our show for today. Thanks to Sarah Longwell for
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: coming on. Dan, Alex, and I will be back with
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: a new show on Friday.