Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist on Informetrics saying NZ is on the cusp of an economic recovery, fuel prices

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Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist on Informetrics saying NZ is on the cusp of an economic recovery, fuel prices · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: New Zealand on the cusp of an economic recovery if
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: fuel prices stayed down. That's according to a new report
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: out this morning from Informetrics. It's forecasting GDP to hit
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: four year high two point seven percent by mid next year,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the OCR up to three and a half percenters conditions improved.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Nick Tuffy, ASP chief economists with the this morning.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Hey, Nick, good morning.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: So about on the money.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Well, we we think of an annualized pace, you could
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: get growth up to about a bit over three percent
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: through the middle of next year, but you know, hitting
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: near for the full year next year growth just under
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: three percent, So that's fingers crossed. We do get a
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: bit of a decent rebound coming through in the second
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: half of this year.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: What about price to fuel or seeing all these stories
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: about go and fill up now because the price is
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: going to go up soon.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Well, there's definitely that risk that they do go up
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: a little bit. When you look at the wholesale markets,
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: at least so far, the price of all use it's
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: gone up a little bit, and refinery margins have gone up,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: but nowhere near the sorts of moves that we saw
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: early on when the war hit and there was a
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: lot of stress on there. So I'm very hopeful that
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: we're not going to see anywhere near the sorts of
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: lists of fuel prices that we saw, and they're going
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: to remain substantially off their lows. And particularly that price
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: of diesel is the important one because that's moving around
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: so much of our goods and that's where a lot
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: of the cost pressure we've been coming from. Earlier on
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: in the air.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: We had beneficiary numbers out yesterday. They're up again. Unsurprisingly
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: given the state of things. It's although slightly I think
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: it was one percent quarter on quarter, But where is
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: that going to go? And if we get a coalition
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: government and again we're likely to get another round of
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: job cuts from the public service, what does.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: That do well? We think we'll see unemployment in the
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: short term, So we're sitting around that sort of five
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: point three five point four percent mark, So just in
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: the short term, you know, employment itself being relatively soggy,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: but also you've got the immigration picking up. As we
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: head over next year, we speak that unemployment will gradually
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: gradually fall and we'll be back below five percent. Whilst
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: we're trekking through to the end of next year. So
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: look gradual turnaround on that front, but as resumption of growth,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: resumption of employment, which is going to help strengthen things
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: on that front.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Fantastic. That's what we like to hear, although I didn't
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: like to hear the word soggy from your neck. Thank you,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Nick Tagler, Economist. For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: listen live to news Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays,
• 2:30
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