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Why OTS Holdings Is Betting Big Despite A Swing To The Red In 1H 2026 · Investor Exchange

• 0:02
  Time for another Investor Exchange podcast. Here are your hosts, Matt and Sally.
• 0:08
  Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today, we're going to talk about something that
• 0:11
  is probably, you know, sitting in your kitchen cabinet right now.
• 0:14
  Oh, I'm pretty sure I have a couple of cans myself.
• 0:16
  Right. It's that guilty pleasure.
• 0:19
  You know, the one Sunday morning, you get the frying pan out,
• 0:22
  get a little bit of crispiness on the edges.
• 0:24
  I mean, we're talking about luncheon meat. It really is the ultimate comfort food. Absolutely.
• 0:29
  And, you know, when you think of premium luncheon meat or like high quality
• 0:34
  sausages, you usually think of a few specific names.
• 0:38
  They think of Golden Bridge, you think of Kelly's, maybe Eldina if you're looking for halal options.
• 0:44
  These brands are just, they're institutions. You really are.
• 0:47
  They are the heavy hitters on the supermarket shelf, and they all belong to
• 0:51
  one parent company, which is OTS Holdings Limited.
• 0:54
  Right. And OTS Holdings has been listed on the Catalyst board since, what, 2021? In 2021.
• 0:59
  So they're a homegrown success story. But today...
• 1:03
  We aren't here to share recipes or debate which brand has the best texture.
• 1:08
  But that would be a fun deep dive on its own. It would be. But no,
• 1:12
  today we are looking at their latest financial report.
• 1:14
  This covers the first half of their fiscal year, 2026, which ended December 31st, 2025. Right.
• 1:22
  And I have to be honest, looking at these sheets, that comfort food is causing
• 1:27
  some serious indigestion for investors right now.
• 1:30
  Yeah, that is a, well, it's a very polite way of putting it.
• 1:32
  I think loss of appetite might actually be more accurate here. Loss of appetite? Yeah.
• 1:38
  Because when you look at the condensed, consolidated interim financial statements
• 1:43
  alongside the profit guidance they released in early February,
• 1:46
  it paints a picture of a company that is really struggling to find its footing.
• 1:50
  It's a classic case of a business caught in transition, a very messy transition.
• 1:55
  It feels like they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
• 1:58
  So our mission for this deep dive is to figure out, is this just a temporary
• 2:02
  stomach ache? Like maybe they just ate something bad?
• 2:05
  We need to look at this purely from an investor's perspective.
• 2:08
  We need to strip away the corporate gloss and look at the actual cash.
• 2:12
  Is this a buying opportunity because the stock is beaten down,
• 2:16
  or is it a value trap that you should avoid?
• 2:19
  Let's jump straight into the headline numbers then, because the swing here is
• 2:23
  actually quite violent for a company of this size.
• 2:25
  It is a huge swing. If we rewind to this same time last year,
• 2:29
  so the first half of FY 2025 OTS was profitable. Yep.
• 2:35
  They weren't, you know, printing money, but they made a net profit of $0.7 million.
• 2:40
  Solid. Respectable for their size. Very solid. Yeah.
• 2:43
  Fast forward to this report. For the six months ending December 2025.
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  And they have posted a net loss of $0.3 million. Ouch.
• 2:51
  That is a flat out $1 million swing in the wrong direction in just 12 months.
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  And for a small cap company, a $1 million swing isn't a rounding error.
• 3:00
  That is fundamental. It changes the entire narrative of the stock.
• 3:03
  Right. When you go from black to red, the first thing any savvy investor asks
• 3:07
  is, did the expenses explode or did the sales evaporate? And looking at the
• 3:10
  top line, the revenue, it looks like evaporation. Complete evaporation.
• 3:14
  Revenue dropped by 15.4%. Yeah. To put that in real money, they went from selling
• 3:19
  $16.8 million worth of sausages and meat products down to $14.2 million. Yeah.
• 3:25
  That is over $2.5 million of sales that just vanished into thin air.
• 3:29
  Vanish is the right word, but we need to be very precise about where it vanished.
• 3:34
  Okay, lay it out for us. Because if you walk into a supermarket today,
• 3:37
  the shelves still look full. The Golden Bridge cans are there.
• 3:41
  People are still buying them. Exactly my first thought. I haven't stopped eating
• 3:46
  it. My neighbors haven't stopped.
• 3:48
  Right. And the report actually backs that up.
• 3:50
  The modern trade segment, which is the grocery stores and supermarkets, only dips slightly.
• 3:56
  Exactly. And food services selling to hotels, restaurants, hawkers was actually
• 4:01
  stable. It even ticked up a tiny bit.
• 4:03
  You've hit on a crucial point here. The core domestic business,
• 4:07
  the stuff you and I see every day, is actually holding up reasonably well.
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  It's sticky. Very sticky.
• 4:12
  The disaster happened in the segment they categorize in their financials as.
• 4:16
  Others. Others. I always love that catch-all bucket. Right.
• 4:20
  This bucket essentially represents their export markets. And this segment didn't
• 4:25
  just dip. It fell off a cliff.
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  How bad was it? It went from generating over $4 million last year to just $1.85
• 4:32
  million this year. Whoa.
• 4:34
  That is a massive drop. We are talking more than a 50% decline in that specific revenue stream.
• 4:40
  Okay, so half their export business just disappeared.
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  The report blames, I really love this vague corporate phrasing,
• 4:49
  evolving market dynamics overseas and changes in customer order patterns.
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  It's wonderfully opaque, isn't it? It really is. Can we decode that for the
• 4:57
  listener? What does that actually mean in the real world?
• 4:59
  So evolving market dynamics is usually investor relations code for nobody wants
• 5:03
  to buy our stuff right now. Ouch.
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  But specifically in this industry, it likely points to massive inventory issues.
• 5:10
  You mean the distributors overseas are overstocked? like they have too much
• 5:13
  product sitting around? That's the most probable scenario.
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  Think about the post-pandemic supply chain whiplash. A lot of distributors panic bought.
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  They stocked up their warehouses thinking consumer demand would stay sky high forever.
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  Now, global consumption is cooling down, and these guys are sitting on absolute
• 5:31
  mountains of canned meat.
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  So they aren't going to order a single new pallet from OTS until they clear
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  that existing backlog. Precisely.
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  OTS is essentially sitting by the phone waiting for it to ring,
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  and it's completely silent.
• 5:45
  That definitely explains a revenue drop. But here's what worries me when I read
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  this. When a company loses revenue like that, the instinct is usually to slash
• 5:54
  and burn costs to protect the bottom line. Oh, definitely.
• 5:58
  Did we see that here? Did management react? Oh, absolutely. This is textbook
• 6:01
  defensive management. They went into full belt tightening mode almost immediately.
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  If you look at the statement of comprehensive income, specifically the expenses
• 6:08
  breakdown, you can see management pulling the emergency brake hard.
• 6:12
  You mean the details. What got cut? They took a machete to the marketing budget.
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  Marketing and distribution costs were slashed by 20.2%. Yeah,
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  they spent about $300,000 less on ads and promotions compared to the exact same period last year.
• 6:27
  See, this is where I get incredibly conflicted as an investor. How so?
• 6:31
  On one hand, I get it. You have less cash coming in, so you spend less. Basic math.
• 6:36
  But on the other hand, if your sales are dropping, isn't that the exact moment
• 6:41
  you need to be screaming from the rooftops? Getting your brand out there. Exactly.
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  If you stop advertising, don't you risk falling out of the consumer's mind completely?
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  It is the classic death spiral risk in retail. Death spiral. Yeah.
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  You cut marketing to save your margin, which leads to lower brand awareness,
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  which leads to lower sales, which forces you to cut marketing again.
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  It's a very dangerous game. It sounds like a trap.
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  But I think in this specific case, OTS didn't really have a choice.
• 7:09
  They needed to preserve cash liquidity immediately.
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  They are prioritizing sheer survival over market growth right now. That makes sense.
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  But it wasn't just marketing, though. There was a line item in the administrative
• 7:20
  expenses that really stood out to me. The bonuses. Yes.
• 7:24
  Admin extensives dropped nearly 10 percent, and the notes explicitly say it
• 7:28
  was due to the absence of December performance bonuses.
• 7:31
  Yeah, that one really stings. That is a huge red flag for me.
• 7:35
  Not just financially, but culturally.
• 7:37
  Oh, 100 percent. You are telling your staff the exact people who have to work
• 7:41
  double time to turn this ship around. Sorry, no donuses here.
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  Thanks for the hard work. It is a massive morale killer.
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  There is no way around it. When you cut the year-end bonus, you are signaling
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  to every single employee that the company is in serious trouble.
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  And what happens next? It risks a huge brain drain.
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  Your best salespeople, your most efficient operational managers,
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  they might start looking for the exit just when you need them the most?
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  Because they can get bonuses elsewhere.
• 8:08
  Exactly. It suggests things are way tighter internally than even the revenue drop implies.
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  And yet, despite cutting marketing and cutting bonuses, their total expenses
• 8:18
  didn't drop enough to save them from a net loss. Nope, they still bled money.
• 8:22
  And there is one expense line that actually shot up.
• 8:25
  Finance costs. Up nearly 29% year over year. That's massive.
• 8:29
  So they're paying way more interest to the banks. Why?
• 8:32
  Are they just refinancing bad debt to keep the lights on, or is there something
• 8:36
  else going on? No, this is actually the most interesting part of the entire story.
• 8:40
  They aren't borrowing just to plug holes. They are borrowing to build.
• 8:44
  Building what? They have taken on new bank loans to finance a major operational expansion.
• 8:51
  Ah, this is the Malaysia project we saw in the notes. Correct.
• 8:54
  If you flip over to the balance sheet, look at the non-current assets.
• 8:58
  Specifically property, plant, and equipment, which we call PPE.
• 9:02
  Okay, looking at it. It jumped by nearly $2.9 million to reach a total of $22.1 million.
• 9:09
  That is a lot of heavy metal sitting on the books. It is. They are building
• 9:13
  a massive new manufacturing facility in Johor, Malaysia.
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  So just across the causeway, what's the strategy there? The thesis is quite
• 9:20
  simple. Singapore is expensive.
• 9:22
  Land is notoriously expensive, and manufacturing labor is very expensive.
• 9:26
  If they can shift the bulk of their actual meat processing and production to
• 9:30
  Malaysia, they can theoretically slash their unit costs and completely restore
• 9:35
  their shrinking margins. That makes perfect sense on paper.
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  It's the standard Singapore SME playbook.
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  Move the factory across the causeway. Exactly.
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  So why isn't it working yet? If they have the factory, why are we seeing these
• 9:47
  nasty losses? Because of the incredibly painful gap between building a factory
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  and actually running a factory, the physical structure is there.
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  The stainless steel machines are installed. The money has absolutely been spent.
• 10:02
  That's why the debt and the interest payments are up.
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  But they can't turn the machines on. Wait, why not? Regulatory limbo.
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  The financial report states they are still pending several certifications and
• 10:12
  approvals from local authorities in Malaysia. Oh, the absolute joys of bureaucracy.
• 10:17
  You said it. So they own this massive asset, but they literally aren't legally
• 10:21
  allowed to use it yet. Right. Think of it like this.
• 10:24
  Imagine you decide to renovate your kitchen to start a home catering business.
• 10:28
  Okay, I'm with you. You buy the $5,000 oven, the granite countertops,
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  the huge industrial mixer.
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  And you put it all on your credit card. That's the bank debt. Yes, that's the debt.
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  But then the city health inspector just doesn't show up to give you the permit you need to operate.
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  So I'm stuck paying the 29% interest on the credit card for the oven.
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  But you can't bake a single cookie to sell and pay it off.
• 10:53
  That is an agonizing position to be in. That is exactly where OTS is sitting right now.
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  And that timing mismatch is what is absolutely killing their cash flow.
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  Let's look at that cash flow. Look at the cash flow statement.
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  Net cash used in operating activities was negative $1.2 million.
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  Negative $1.2 million. Yeah. Last year, they were cash flow positive.
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  Right now, they are burning cash just to keep the lights on and wait for a piece
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  of paper with a stamp on it. That perfectly explains the indigestion I mentioned earlier.
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  They have swallowed the massive cost of the factory, but they haven't digested
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  it yet to actually get any energy from it.
• 11:28
  That's a fantastic analogy. It's a total blockage. And until that blockage clears,
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  until those official certifications come through, they are bleeding hash every single day.
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  Now let's zoom out a bit, because even if they get the license tomorrow,
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  let's say the inspector shows up, the stamp comes through, and the factory roars
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  to life. Best case scenario. Right.
• 11:49
  Even then, they still have to sell the actual luncheon meat.
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  And the environment they are selling into right now, it doesn't look particularly friendly to me.
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  It is incredibly hostile out there. The report flags several macro risks.
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  But the one that really threatens their core existence, the one that should
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  keep OTS investors up at night, is private labels. The house brands. Exactly.
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  We're talking about Fair Price brand, Meadows, the giant brand.
• 12:14
  Yes. And this is a huge shift in consumer behavior. In the past,
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  maybe 10 years ago, house brands were generally seen as the cheap and nasty option.
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  The packaging was usually ugly and the taste was, well, questionable.
• 12:27
  You only bought it if you really had to.
• 12:29
  Right. But that has changed dramatically. Supermarkets have massively upped their game.
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  The quality of a house brand luncheon meat is now 90% as good as the branded
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  stuff, but the price is often 30% lower.
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  And in an inflationary environment, which the financial report also highlights
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  as a major headwind, that 30% price difference is literally everything for a
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  family shopper trying to balance a budget.
• 12:54
  It is. The report explicitly says that intense competition from private labels
• 12:59
  has constrained pricing flexibility.
• 13:01
  Let's unpack that specific phrase, constrained pricing flexibility.
• 13:05
  That's just polite corporate speak for we're completely trapped,
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  isn't it? Completely trapped. Think about the mechanics of inflation.
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  OTS is facing higher operational costs across the board. Energy is up.
• 13:16
  Energy is up. Raw material prices, mostly pork and chicken, are highly volatile
• 13:20
  due to global issues. Freight costs are elevated.
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  Normally, a healthy business just passes those extra costs right down to the
• 13:27
  consumer. You just raise the price of the can by 20 or 30 cents.
• 13:30
  But they can't do that. They cannot, because right next to the beautiful Golden
• 13:34
  Bridge can on the supermarket shelf is the fair price house brand can.
• 13:39
  Right. If Golden Bridge gets even a little bit more expensive,
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  the customer just shifts their hand six inches to the left and grabs the house brand instead.
• 13:49
  OTS has to eat the cost increases themselves. Which absolutely crushes their profit margin.
• 13:55
  That is the squeeze. They're being squeezed by suppliers on one end and by the
• 13:59
  supermarkets on the other end.
• 14:00
  And ironically, the supermarket is both their biggest customer and their most dangerous competitor.
• 14:05
  That is a brutally tough spot to be in. You mentioned suppliers and global costs earlier.
• 14:11
  I saw a mention of U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in their risk factors.
• 14:16
  Yeah, the macro stuff. It feels a bit like a stretch, honestly,
• 14:19
  for a Singapore sausage company to blame U.S. tariffs, doesn't it?
• 14:23
  Or is there a real tangible link there? There is a real link, but it's indirect.
• 14:27
  It's all about the global supply chain ripple effect. Walk me through it.
• 14:31
  If tariffs or conflicts disrupt major shipping lanes in the Middle East,
• 14:36
  ocean freight rates spike globally.
• 14:39
  Everyone pays more for containers. Okay, that makes sense. And if animal feed prices go up in the U.S.
• 14:45
  Because of agricultural tariffs, the global cost of pork goes up in Asia.
• 14:50
  OTS is a massive importer of raw frozen meat.
• 14:53
  So they are entirely at the mercy of global commodity prices.
• 14:57
  They have zero control over it.
• 14:58
  If a geopolitical event makes pork more expensive, their margins take an immediate hit.
• 15:03
  Speaking of things they can't control, let's talk about the currency situation. The Malaysian ringgit.
• 15:09
  Ah, yes. This part of the report was a bit dense and technical,
• 15:12
  but I feel like it actually matters a lot for their strategy.
• 15:15
  It matters tremendously. It's a double-edged sword for them.
• 15:18
  The report mentions that the ring had actually strengthened against the Singapore
• 15:21
  dollar during this period.
• 15:23
  Usually for a Singapore-based company, a strong home currency is good.
• 15:27
  Right. Why is a strong ring get a problem for OTS?
• 15:31
  Because they are basically betting the farm on Malaysia.
• 15:34
  As they ramp up their new operations in Johor, their day-to-day costs,
• 15:39
  labor, factory utilities, local supplies, those are all denominated in Malaysian ringgit.
• 15:46
  If the ringgit gets stronger, those operational costs get mathematically higher
• 15:51
  when they are converted back to Singapore dollars for their financial reporting.
• 15:55
  So it makes their whole cheap manufacturing thesis a little less cheap. Exactly.
• 15:59
  It erodes the primary benefit of moving across the border. But there was a flip
• 16:03
  side in the report, right?
• 16:04
  I saw a line item about a gain related to the currency.
• 16:08
  That's the accounting magic at work. Magic.
• 16:10
  Explain. Think of it like buying a holiday home in Malaysia.
• 16:13
  Let's say you bought it for 1 million ringgit.
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  If the ringgit gets stronger against the Sing dollar, your holiday home is technically
• 16:20
  worth more when you calculate your net worth in Singapore dollars.
• 16:23
  You feel richer on paper. Okay, so my asset value goes up. Exactly.
• 16:27
  So OTS booked a currency translation gain on their balance sheet because their
• 16:31
  Malaysian factory is technically worth more Singh dollars now. Oh, I see.
• 16:35
  But here's the catch. You can't
• 16:37
  pay your factory workers with the theoretical value of your building.
• 16:41
  You can't pay the electric bill with a translation gain.
• 16:45
  Right. It's strictly a paper gain. But the higher operating costs,
• 16:48
  the higher electric bill in ringgit, that takes real hard cash right out of their bank account.
• 16:55
  So cash-wise, a strong ringgit actively hurts them, even if it makes the balance
• 16:59
  sheet look a little bit prettier on the surface.
• 17:01
  That is a really important distinction for investors to grasp.
• 17:05
  Do not get fooled by the paper gain. You have to watch the actual cash flow.
• 17:09
  Okay, let's recap where we are. We have a net loss. We have rapidly falling revenue.
• 17:14
  We have a multi-million dollar factory stuck in regulatory purgatory.
• 17:19
  We have house brands eating their market share and currency headwinds.
• 17:23
  It's a lot. Is there any light at the end of this tunnel?
• 17:26
  What is the company actually doing about all of this?
• 17:29
  Well, let's look at the Outlook section of the documents. First off,
• 17:32
  they issued a profit guidance on February 4th, basically waving a flag and warning
• 17:37
  the market this bad news was coming. I guess that's actually a small positive.
• 17:40
  It is. It shows management isn't asleep at the wheel, they see the numbers deteriorating,
• 17:45
  and they aren't trying to hide them from investors.
• 17:48
  No surprises is definitely good in investing.
• 17:50
  But what is the actual turnaround plan? The stated strategy is disciplined execution,
• 17:56
  which basically means they are hunkering down for a storm. Survival mode. Yes.
• 18:02
  They are going to keep overhead costs as low as humanly possible,
• 18:06
  hence the canceled bonuses and the slashed ad spend.
• 18:09
  And they are focusing 100% of their corporate energy on getting those Malaysian
• 18:13
  certifications approved.
• 18:14
  It really all comes down to that factory, doesn't it? It is the absolute pivot
• 18:19
  point for the entire company's future.
• 18:21
  Wow. If they can get that factory running at high capacity, their unit costs drop significantly.
• 18:27
  Suddenly, they can compete with the supermarket house brands on price again.
• 18:31
  They can restore their margins.
• 18:32
  And they can start aggressively exporting again with much more competitive pricing.
• 18:37
  So let's summarize this whole situation for our listener. Let's play bull and bear.
• 18:41
  If I'm an optimist, if I'm the bull, what am I seeing in OTS Holdings right now?
• 18:46
  If you are a bull, you are looking at this as a classic turnaround play.
• 18:51
  You are saying, look, the brand heritage is still strong. People still love Golden Bridge.
• 18:56
  This financial loss is just a messy, temporary transition period.
• 19:01
  You believe the export drop was just a one-time inventory clearing event,
• 19:05
  and orders will bounce back. Exactly.
• 19:07
  You believe the Malaysia factory will finally get approved next month,
• 19:10
  production volume will soar, costs will crash, and by next year,
• 19:14
  they will be highly profitable and paying dividends again.
• 19:17
  You are essentially buying a household name at a bargain basement price while
• 19:22
  everyone else is scared. That's the bull case.
• 19:24
  Buy when there's blood in the streets. Okay, I can see that logic.
• 19:28
  Now give me the bear case, the pessimist's view.
• 19:32
  The bear looks at this and says the consumer world has fundamentally changed.
• 19:36
  The bear argues that brand loyalty for basic commodities like lunch and meat is dead.
• 19:40
  Strong words. The bear says that the Malaysia factory is going to be a massive
• 19:44
  money pit plagued by ongoing labor shortages across the border,
• 19:48
  permanent currency headwinds, and endless bureaucratic delays.
• 19:51
  So they just keep burning cash. Right.
• 19:54
  They see a company that is bleeding its cash reserves and permanently losing
• 19:59
  its pricing power to massive supermarkets that control the actual shelf space.
• 20:03
  The bear thinks this isn't just a stumble, it's the beginning of a long,
• 20:07
  slow decline to irrelevance. That is extremely bleak.
• 20:11
  Honestly, it brings up a really profound question about the nature of premium
• 20:15
  brands in the grocery store today.
• 20:17
  It really does. It forces you as an investor to question what you are actually buying.
• 20:22
  We started this deep dive talking about comfort food, the psychological safety of it.
• 20:27
  But I want to leave you, the listener, with this thought to mull over.
• 20:30
  Let's hear it. We automatically assume that comfort means brand loyalty.
• 20:34
  We assume we need that specific red can of Golden Bridge to feel good on a Sunday
• 20:39
  morning. But do we really? Exactly.
• 20:41
  In a world where inflation is aggressively eating everyone's wallet,
• 20:45
  does comfort come from the brand
• 20:46
  printed on the label or just the taste of the salt and fat in the pan?
• 20:50
  That's the real question. If the generic house brand gives you 95% of the comfort
• 20:54
  for 70% of the price, is the era of the premium mass market brand over?
• 20:59
  That is the existential threat they face.
• 21:02
  Are they selling a genuinely unique product or are they just selling a meat
• 21:06
  commodity with a nice nostalgic sticker on it?
• 21:09
  That is the ultimate bet you are making. If you decide to invest in OTS Holdings
• 21:13
  today, you're betting hard that the sticker still matters to people.
• 21:18
  And the numbers we reviewed today suggest that, at least right now,
• 21:21
  fewer and fewer people are willing to pay a premium for that sticker.
• 21:25
  But consumer habits can swing back just as fast as they swung away.
• 21:28
  They absolutely can. A sobering thought to chew on.
• 21:32
  We have covered a lot of ground today, from vanished employee bonuses and phantom
• 21:37
  factories to the global geopolitics of pork and the nasty nuances of currency translation.
• 21:43
  It really shows how a simple can of meat connects to the entire global economy.
• 21:47
  It's never just about the sausage.
• 21:49
  Absolutely not. Thank you so much for breaking down the balance sheet with us
• 21:53
  and helping us navigate all that counting jargon. My pleasure.
• 21:55
  Anytime. And thank you to everyone listening. We hope this deep dive gave you
• 21:59
  a much clearer picture of what is actually happening under the lid at OTS Holdings.
• 22:04
  Keep asking the hard questions about the companies you buy. See you on the next deep dive. Goodbye.
• 22:11
  This content is intended to serve strictly and only as an informational,
• 22:15
  independent, objective summary of recent events and should in no way be interpreted,
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  construed or relied upon by any party as inside information or financial advice.